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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Monday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Pelt. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt. Following a very good day, our best

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Speaker 2: day of twenty twenty five by a ways, swept the

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Speaker 2: board last night six and oh up over five units

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Speaker 2: on the day. Ravens Bill's Eagles money line cash is

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Speaker 2: three leg money line parlay one point one to three units.

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Speaker 2: Eagles win by twelve. They cover Bill's Broncos goes under.

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Speaker 2: That was a theme of yesterday, in a theme so

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Speaker 2: far here for the playoffs, only one game has gone over.

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Speaker 2: That was Raven Steelers. The rest of them have gone under.

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Speaker 2: Come Maners win the game outright like I thought that

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Speaker 2: they might. I'm glad we teased it down or went

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Speaker 2: took the under rather on the tees versus going over

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Speaker 2: because over missed over forty four and a half. That

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Speaker 2: missed under fifty six. That comes in. Terry mcclaurin gets

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Speaker 2: our prop for us really easily. We get cook in

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Speaker 2: the first half as well. Two and oh on Sunday

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Speaker 2: for props two and oh on Saturday for props four

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Speaker 2: and oh on the weekend for prop bets for us,

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Speaker 2: that's a six and oh mark, up five point one

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Speaker 2: three units.

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Speaker 1: If you go back to.

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Speaker 2: The football five days dravaganza that we talked about Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

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Speaker 2: it ends today with five days. Thursday we went two

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Speaker 2: and oh in college football. Friday we went one in one,

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Speaker 2: Saturday we went three and one, and Sunday we went

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Speaker 2: six and oh. That's a twelve and two mark over

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Speaker 2: the past four football days. Now, we would have won

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Speaker 2: a lot more than what we won last week. We

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Speaker 2: won over five units last week. But college basketball in

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Speaker 2: the NHL kicked me in the you know whats and

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Speaker 2: if I didn't bet hockey.

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Speaker 1: In college basketball last.

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Speaker 2: Week, we killed it, and I mean we killed it

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Speaker 2: last week, but because we did, we wound up down.

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Speaker 2: College basketball has absolutely been killing me this week, like

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Speaker 2: killing me this year. I should say I'm down nearly

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Speaker 2: seven units in college basketball. But the NFL, we just

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Speaker 2: rallied with the NFL, and now we're up over five

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Speaker 2: units on NFL and we're up over four and a

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Speaker 2: half units in on prop betting, so we're up over

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Speaker 2: nine or so units college football. We're up five units

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Speaker 2: in college football. We are up about eight units on

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Speaker 2: the year so far here in twenty twenty five. So

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Speaker 2: it's kind of crazy, but like you look at the

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Speaker 2: way the craziness works, I.

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Speaker 1: Think we wound up. I didn't do that.

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Speaker 2: That's my fault. I didn't go back and tell you

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Speaker 2: what I was. I think I was down eighteen units

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Speaker 2: for the year. Let me just go and double check

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Speaker 2: that to see where we were last year. We were

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Speaker 2: down twenty units for the year, so overall, down twenty

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Speaker 2: units for twenty twenty five four rather right, So we're

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Speaker 2: already up eight units for twenty twenty four. So, like

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Speaker 2: you see what I mean, Like that's the volatility, right,

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Speaker 2: that's how things are going to go. So we've almost

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Speaker 2: made a halfway dent into what we lost in totality

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Speaker 2: over three hundred and sixty five days. And it's the

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Speaker 2: thirteenth of January and we're already up eight units now,

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Speaker 2: are already sitting very pretty as we look ahead to

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Speaker 2: what we're going to do going forward. So I like,

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Speaker 2: obviously like the start to the year. I like the

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Speaker 2: start to the month. We are up. We are sitting

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Speaker 2: pretty who knows where we're going to end the month up,

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Speaker 2: But like not bad. I say all of this to

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Speaker 2: say be careful with tonight. I am one hundred percent

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Speaker 2: due to go. And three, I've got three bets for

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Speaker 2: us tonight, all on the Vikings and the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Change of venue.

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Speaker 2: This game was supposed to be played in La, now

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Speaker 2: being played in Phoenix at State Farm Arena versus our

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Speaker 2: State Farm Stadium. This is difficult, Okay, I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 2: This is a difficult handicap. There's a lot of trends

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Speaker 2: going into these things that I'm a little bit skeptical,

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Speaker 2: love and scared of. But man, unders were the key.

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Speaker 2: I couldn't figure out why the move happened. For the overs.

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Speaker 2: We had about two hundred people on our live chat

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Speaker 2: on Sunday morning, which was awesome to see. We'll do

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Speaker 2: that again coming up next weekend. I gave you two

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Speaker 2: player props that both came in James Cook rushing over

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Speaker 2: and Terry mcclaurin receiving over on the yardage. So those

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Speaker 2: both came in very easily for us. So that was

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Speaker 2: good to get those down. But we watched the movement

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Speaker 2: on the Broncos, and I said on the chat, why, like,

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Speaker 2: what are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Really?

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Speaker 2: That's why I didn't. I just took the money line

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Speaker 2: thirty one seven to win for the Buffalo Bills. Game

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Speaker 2: went on under twenty three to twenty the win for

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Speaker 2: the Washington Commanders. I said it on Friday's podcast. The

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Speaker 2: books needed a victory by one of the dogs, and

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Speaker 2: I thought Washington was going to be the team that

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Speaker 2: got it there.

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Speaker 1: And they did.

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Speaker 2: They won the game outright, last second dink off an upright.

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Speaker 2: They got there. But the game went woefully under. That

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Speaker 2: total was too high. Every total that was like forty eight,

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Speaker 2: forty nine. I couldn't figure out why it was that high,

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Speaker 2: Like this is not regular season football. I mean forty

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Speaker 2: nine and a half for Denver and Buffalo. Game fell

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Speaker 2: thirty eight total, forty six for a closing number for

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Speaker 2: green Bay. In Philadelphia, the game fell thirty two fifty

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Speaker 2: two for Washington Tampa. The game fell forty three. Like

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Speaker 2: people I don't know. I just I don't get it,

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Speaker 2: Like people just forgot about the idea. The referees don't

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Speaker 2: call holding penalties nearly as much. They don't call pass

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Speaker 2: interference nearly as much. The defenses are up to the task.

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Speaker 2: The offenses are far more conservative. They don't go for

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Speaker 2: fourth down nearly Washington did, but they don't go for

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Speaker 2: it as much. Right, Like these are low scoring games.

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Speaker 2: This is playoff football. Like just because of the Steelers

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Speaker 2: and the Ravens went over and everyone's like, oh, here

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Speaker 2: comes the weekend. I didn't get any of the movements.

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Speaker 2: I didn't get the dog rush, and I did not

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Speaker 2: get the over money that came in consistently yesterday. Books

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Speaker 2: did very well. Books did very very well, even with

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Speaker 2: the favorites coming in. I think the books cleaned up,

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Speaker 2: the teasers cleaned up. I think the books did pretty

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Speaker 2: well with all these unders coming in here for them

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Speaker 2: on this Sunday. So let's go to Monday. Okay, and

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Speaker 2: I've got three bets here going on Monday. Let's start

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Speaker 2: with the side. The number is two and a half

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Speaker 2: for Minnesota. See the hat that I'm wearing, the Lions hat.

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Speaker 2: Here's my problem with the Vikings in their loss last week.

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Speaker 2: After losing to the Lions, this has been a very

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Speaker 2: profitable betting trend to fade the team after they play

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Speaker 2: the Lions. After they faced the Lions, are six and

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Speaker 2: ten straight up and four and twelve ATS failing to

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Speaker 2: cover by an average of over eight points.

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Speaker 1: According to the Action Network, that.

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Speaker 2: Is an eighteen and thirty one mark over the last

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Speaker 2: three seasons. That's the most least profitable opponent ATS in

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Speaker 2: the NFL over the last three games.

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Speaker 1: And it was a huge game for them.

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Speaker 2: I mean it was for the division, it was for

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Speaker 2: the number one seed, I get all of it.

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Speaker 1: It was just huge.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the number being two and a half makes me go, man,

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Speaker 2: it's a three point game one way or the other.

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Speaker 2: The NFC destroyed teams when they didn't play the other

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Speaker 2: NFC side thirty three and eleven. We've talked about this,

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Speaker 2: thirty and fourteen. When they take on teams from outside

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Speaker 2: the division, they just pounded on them. They beat the

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Speaker 2: living daylights out of them. It was just wild to

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Speaker 2: watch green Bay. I guess now because they didn't win

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Speaker 2: and didn't cover green Bay factors in this. Now it's

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Speaker 2: you know, you drop that down. That's now thirty three,

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Speaker 2: three and twelve straight up for teams out of the

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Speaker 2: North in thirty and fifteen against the number But man,

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Speaker 2: coming off this versus the Lions just makes me so

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Speaker 2: hesitant to take the Vikings. Yes, the Vikings win the game,

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Speaker 2: but man, they could easily lose this game.

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Speaker 1: Easily.

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Speaker 2: Kevin O'Connell's been tremendous in one score games for the

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Speaker 2: Vikings in the regular season twenty nine and six, sorry,

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Speaker 2: twenty six.

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Speaker 1: And nine, rather straight up.

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Speaker 2: In one score games under Kevin O'Connell this year, they're

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Speaker 2: nine and one straight up, nine and one straight up.

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Speaker 2: O'Connell was coached in one playoff game and it was

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Speaker 2: a one score game two years ago. They lost to

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Speaker 2: the Giants. They were two and a half point favorites

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Speaker 2: and they lost it. Here's the thing. Ian McVeigh is

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Speaker 2: really not good on extended rest. But he's ten, thirteen

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Speaker 2: and two on extended rest.

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Speaker 1: It's not awful.

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Speaker 2: It's not great, but it's not awful. Matthew Stafford was

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Speaker 2: awful as a dog before this year. But Matthew Stafford

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Speaker 2: has won four games outright this year as an underdog.

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Speaker 2: That's the most since twenty sixteen. It's the second most

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Speaker 2: of his career. He's won two straight games outright as

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Speaker 2: an underdog, the only other time in his career he's

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Speaker 2: won three straight games as an underdog was in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two, with the third consecutive game being against the

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Speaker 2: Bucks in the playoffs. They've been in this situation before

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Speaker 2: in true road playoff games. Matthew Stafford is one in

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Speaker 2: three straight up, but on neutral or at home. In

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Speaker 2: the postseason, Stafford is three to zero straight up all

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Speaker 2: with the Rams, including the Super Bowl. I have a

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Speaker 2: hard time saying that the Vikings are going to win

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Speaker 2: this game going away. A part of me says the

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Speaker 2: Rams are going to win this game outright, party me says, man,

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Speaker 2: this is going to be tough. The Vikings have been

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Speaker 2: called frauds for so long. Everyone's been waiting for them

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Speaker 2: to fall on their face. It's tough for me to

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Speaker 2: do this. The Vikings are averaging over twenty five points

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Speaker 2: per game this season according to the Action Networks. In

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Speaker 2: two thousand and three, teams that average twenty five or

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Speaker 2: more points per game, and the Regulars. He's been coming

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Speaker 2: off of a fourteen point game or less the week

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Speaker 2: before the wild card round. They're two to nine against

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Speaker 2: the spread, failing to cover by over nine points. Eagles

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Speaker 2: and the Dolphins in that spot last year, who scored

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Speaker 2: sixteen combined points between those two teams. The Rams defense

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Speaker 2: can be good at times. At times. This is a rematch,

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Speaker 2: and it's kind of crazy when you look at the

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Speaker 2: schedule because it's a rematch game where the Lions beat

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Speaker 2: the Vikings thirty one to twenty nine, and then they

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Speaker 2: played on Thursday night at the Rams. This game was

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Speaker 2: supposed to be at the Rams, but it's a West

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Speaker 2: Coast game. They lost the game thirty to twenty. Now,

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Speaker 2: I know it's a playoff matchup and whatnot, but they

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Speaker 2: lost thirty one to nine to the Lions. I have

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Speaker 2: a hard time going. You know what, I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 2: two and a half points. I'm gonna tease it. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna do what I always do, same game teaser Rams

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Speaker 2: plus eight and a half and then the under fifty four. Okay,

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Speaker 2: we've talked about the total at fifty and how consistently

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Speaker 2: the under has come in. Yes, when the game has

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Speaker 2: gone on the indoor side of things, it's been more

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Speaker 2: profitable to bet the over in indoor games, I'll give

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Speaker 2: you that. We talked about that. The outdoor games were

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Speaker 2: very much on you know, you play on outdoors. The

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Speaker 2: under had come in quite consistently indoors, a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a different situation twenty one, fourteen and two to

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Speaker 2: the under outdoor eleven and seven to the over indoors

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Speaker 2: when we go fifty or higher. Now I'm teasing this up, however,

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Speaker 2: it's going from forty eight to fifty four, so a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a different spin as to what I'm

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Speaker 2: doing here with the total. I'm taking it from forty

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Speaker 2: eight and crossing fifty myself, but going under fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty four, I just again, I can't get away from

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Speaker 2: the fact that all three games went under yesterday and

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Speaker 2: we had totals of forty nine, forty six and a

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Speaker 2: half and fifty two and all three games went under. Again,

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Speaker 2: only one game has gone over so far. That was

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Speaker 2: the steel That was the Steelers in the Ravens. I

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Speaker 2: think the number you tease up to fifty six, sorry,

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Speaker 2: fifty four, and we go under one point two units

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Speaker 2: rams plus eight and a half under fifty four. Now,

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Speaker 2: I don't love the secondary for the Rams. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: give you that, okay. And I think Jordan Adison is

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Speaker 2: going to get peppered here because I think you're gonna

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Speaker 2: see Justin Jefferson have a big game as well. I

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Speaker 2: think Sam Darnold bounces back. Okay, I don't think Sam

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Speaker 2: Darran plays nearly as poorly as he did last week.

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Speaker 2: I think he has been to say for where he

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Speaker 2: has been since Week eleven. Addison is averaging five point

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Speaker 2: three catches per game, so I think he gets to

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Speaker 2: five or six catches over four and a half catches,

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Speaker 2: not yards catches for Jordan Addison. I think he'll be

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Speaker 2: targeted in the slot. I think they'll use him in

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Speaker 2: bubble screens. You'll get the football out to Jordan Adison

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Speaker 2: a lot over four and a half catches for Jordan Addison.

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Speaker 2: And then equally, I think Justin Jefferson, who had a

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Speaker 2: very big game in the first matchup up against the

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Speaker 2: Rams eight catches for one hundred and fifteen yards, had

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Speaker 2: a twenty seven yard er in that game as well.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Justin Jefferson goes quietly by any means.

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Speaker 2: I think Justin Jefferson goes over eight nine and a

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Speaker 2: half receiving yards. I like JJ have a big game

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Speaker 2: catching the football today. You can throw Sam Donald in

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Speaker 2: for over attempts if you want, Sam Donald over yardage

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Speaker 2: if you want. I just think personally that the Rams

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Speaker 2: are going to try to limit possessions and run the football,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're going to be able to run

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Speaker 2: the ball with Kyen Williams. I think this is an

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Speaker 2: offense in Darnold, who as long as he's doesn't throw picks,

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Speaker 2: should be okay. But Matthew Stafford threw for four touchdowns

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Speaker 2: on this defense in the first matchup. It was a

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Speaker 2: thirty to twenty final. Stafford threw for two hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy nine yards in the game. Williams ran for ninety

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Speaker 2: seven yards. Poka Nakua had one hundred and six yards

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Speaker 2: again right after they lost to the Lions, same spot

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Speaker 2: that the rain right now, am I am?

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Speaker 1: I dude to hook have an zero to three day?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I'm due to having an o to three day,

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Speaker 2: but I'm playing those three here tonight on a Monday

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Speaker 2: to start the week. Rams plus eight and a half

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Speaker 2: teased with the under fifty four for one point two units,

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Speaker 2: Jordan Addison over four and a half catches at MAUS

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Speaker 2: one twenty five point sixty two units bet to win

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Speaker 2: a half a unit, and Justin Jefferson over eight nine

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Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards at mis one thirteen fer

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Speaker 2: point five to six units. Bet that to win half

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Speaker 2: a unit here on a Monday. Hopefully we stay hot

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Speaker 2: here on this five day historic spot. Twelve and two

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Speaker 2: on football plays over the last four days. Let's see

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Speaker 2: how we end up this five day stretch for us

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Speaker 2: here tonight on Monday Night football. My name is Matt

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Speaker 2: Perrelt to following me acause all of my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt, every morning where, every ye your podcasts, it

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Speaker 2: is the Daily Juice