WEBVTT - Starbucks Ousts CEO and Taps Chipotle’s Brian Niccol as Boss

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Tim, let's get to one stock that is definitely on

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<v Speaker 2>our radar big time.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's Starbucks. The stocks soaring the most ever on

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<v Speaker 3>an intra day basis as the company's board orders up

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<v Speaker 3>a half cath latte with a new CEO. And that

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<v Speaker 3>CEO is one well known to the fast casual space

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<v Speaker 3>and with writing a ship that's got some pretty big issues.

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<v Speaker 2>It's an individual that's really well known to us. It's

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<v Speaker 2>Chipotle CEO Brian Nicol. We've talked to him a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>Named the top job at Starbucks, will take over as

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<v Speaker 2>CEO on September ninth, replacing the existing CEO, who was

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<v Speaker 2>ousted after less than a year and a half at

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<v Speaker 2>the helm. Through Monday, shares in the coffee chain had

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<v Speaker 2>plunged twenty percent this year, following two straight quarters of

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<v Speaker 2>comp sales declined. Shares of Starbucks, though right now we're

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<v Speaker 2>up twenty two percent today. So let's get into it

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<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg News consumer reporter Dina Shanker here in studio,

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<v Speaker 2>and also with us is Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst

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<v Speaker 2>Jody Lori in Bloomberg Got Intelligence headquarters out in Princeton,

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<v Speaker 2>New Jersey. Dina, I want to start with you to

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<v Speaker 2>the news. What do we know? What does this mean

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<v Speaker 2>for Starbucks? And what the Chipotle CEO, who will soon

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<v Speaker 2>be the Starbucks CEO, Brian Nicol brings to the table.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, one analyst called him a dream hire.

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<v Speaker 2>For CEO I believe was the quote.

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<v Speaker 4>He really turned things around for Chipotle, and Chipotle is

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<v Speaker 4>just outperforming the rest of the restaurant industry. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>if you're sitting in a boardroom of a restaurant company

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<v Speaker 4>and things aren't looking so good and you're like, who

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<v Speaker 4>can save us?

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<v Speaker 2>He would probably be at the very top of the list.

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<v Speaker 4>So that was a great hire for them and any

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<v Speaker 4>someone who's also had to deal with a company that

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<v Speaker 4>was under stress for many years, had to beef up

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<v Speaker 4>their digital strategy and came to the company.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm thinking about Chipotle just as the pandemic was hitting

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<v Speaker 2>and so he really had to learn how to kind

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<v Speaker 2>of shift the ship, if you will, at Chipotle, and

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<v Speaker 2>he's kind of got to do some of that here.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, definitely. I Mean, one thing that all of these

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<v Speaker 4>restaurant companies deal with is productivity and how quickly can

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<v Speaker 4>they turn an order into food and put that food

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<v Speaker 4>into a customer's hands. And Chipotle has really improved on that.

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<v Speaker 4>Starbucks really needs that kind of improvement. So I expect

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<v Speaker 4>that that is going to be a big priority for

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<v Speaker 4>him once he takes the job.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, Jody, come on in here. Just because Brian Nichol

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<v Speaker 3>was able to succeed so well at Taco Bell before

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<v Speaker 3>going to Chipotle and then totally exceed expectations I think

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<v Speaker 3>of a lot of investors of Chipotle as well, doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>necessarily mean he can do the same thing at Starbucks.

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<v Speaker 3>What are the challenges that he faces at Starbucks? Given

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<v Speaker 3>the environment over the last couple of years.

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<v Speaker 5>I think there's actually quite a few challenges that they're facing.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, first of all, they have a reputational risk,

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<v Speaker 5>right They've gotten hit by different headlines over and over.

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<v Speaker 5>So first you had the union issues, then you had

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<v Speaker 5>the grassroots effort to sort of, you know, rake Starbucks

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<v Speaker 5>through the mud as it related to Middle Eastern conflict.

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<v Speaker 5>And then you now have China, which was sort of

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<v Speaker 5>their investment arm where they were kind of going to

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<v Speaker 5>next and so all these sort of components just ended

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<v Speaker 5>up in not the best situation for them. So I

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<v Speaker 5>think what they're really hoping is that he will provide

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<v Speaker 5>that expresso shot that they're hoping for that the prior

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<v Speaker 5>CEO didn't quite get a chance to do over the

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<v Speaker 5>past year and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>Jody, what does the Starbucks balance sheet look like?

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<v Speaker 5>Starbucks balance sheet? So, taking a step back, the company,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, went through the pandemic, like all other companies,

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<v Speaker 5>took on a bit of debt to have a little

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<v Speaker 5>bit more cash going through the pandemic, and once the

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<v Speaker 5>pandemic ended, they focused on deleveraging. They got leveraged below

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<v Speaker 5>three times, which was their target. But now the expectation,

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<v Speaker 5>if you look at MODL on the terminal, the expectation

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<v Speaker 5>is that it will hit to three point four to

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<v Speaker 5>three point five times by the end of the fiscal year,

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<v Speaker 5>which is September. So definitely a reversion from where they

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<v Speaker 5>were in terms of improving the balance sheet that said,

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<v Speaker 5>it's not a company that we're necessarily worried about at

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<v Speaker 5>the moment, being a triple B company, but it could

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<v Speaker 5>be an issue as activists get involved and as management

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<v Speaker 5>sort of gets creative and how they turn the company around.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so let's talk a little bit about how the

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<v Speaker 3>company gets turned around, Dina, and think about this from

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<v Speaker 3>the perspective of you know, a company that I think,

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<v Speaker 3>for a lot of people, over the last thirty is

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<v Speaker 3>ish years, reinvented the way that coffee was consumed and

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<v Speaker 3>delivered here in the US at Taco Bell, Dorito's, Locos,

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<v Speaker 3>Taco at Chipotle did a lot, as Carol mentioned, with digital.

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<v Speaker 3>Starbucks already has a robust digital platform and it has

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<v Speaker 3>for years. There's the China element too, and the weakness

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<v Speaker 3>that they've seen in China. What are the challenges that

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<v Speaker 3>he has to overcome to turn Starbucks around.

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<v Speaker 4>So one thing that I think is particular to Starbucks

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<v Speaker 4>that he has to think about is that one of

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<v Speaker 4>the ways Starbucks really differentiated itself out of the gate

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<v Speaker 4>was they were going to be committed to high quality coffee.

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<v Speaker 4>When they started to branch out into lots of other

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<v Speaker 4>things like music and movies and Teddy Bears in the restaurants.

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<v Speaker 2>Howard Schulz came in, came back and said, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we're a coffee company. We're going to focus on coffee.

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<v Speaker 4>We've now seen them once again branching out into lots

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<v Speaker 4>of other things. They have lemonade refreshers, they have energy drinks, but.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of people like those.

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<v Speaker 4>So I am really curious to see how new management

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<v Speaker 4>wants to what direction they want to go, and do

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<v Speaker 4>they want to go back to basics what worked wants

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<v Speaker 4>or do they want to see what's working now and

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<v Speaker 4>then maybe cut the fat.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll just have to wait.

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<v Speaker 2>And see new management. But yet they've got someone who

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<v Speaker 2>has been associated with the company for a long time,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm thinking about Howard Schultz. He's not on the board,

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't have a board seat, doesn't have a formal role

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<v Speaker 2>with the company, but he's Starbucks' sixth largest shareholder, and obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>you know this is his company, and for better or

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<v Speaker 2>for worse, perhaps his involvement. I mean, is it is

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<v Speaker 2>that a good thing for him to still in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of understanding this company, or is this a case where

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<v Speaker 2>you have to have an outsider who under understands DITA

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<v Speaker 2>the fast casual space kind of do his thing read

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<v Speaker 2>new Blood.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the real question is whether the whether a

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<v Speaker 4>new CEO wants to stand up to Howard, because just

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<v Speaker 4>as an outside observer, it seems like Howard really likes

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<v Speaker 4>to share his opinions on the company.

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<v Speaker 3>And come back to the company.

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<v Speaker 4>They come back in return over and over again, and

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<v Speaker 4>so you know, they hired someone really strong. So hopefully

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<v Speaker 4>Howard will take a hint and keep some opinions to himself,

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<v Speaker 4>or at least give them a chance to run with

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<v Speaker 4>some things.

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<v Speaker 2>And apparently Howard Schultz had told Melody Hobson, who was

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<v Speaker 2>on the Starbucks board, that I guess she had told

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<v Speaker 2>him about a week ago about her decision for Brian Nickel,

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<v Speaker 2>and that Schultz apparently said, Melody, that's a home run.

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<v Speaker 2>So she seemed he seems to like it. Jody, how

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<v Speaker 2>do you think about this company? Obviously you focus on

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<v Speaker 2>the balance sheet, understanding the finances and kind of what

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<v Speaker 2>needs to be done there, but you know it all

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<v Speaker 2>goes back to management and how they manage, and that

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<v Speaker 2>will ultimately play out in the balance sheet. How do

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<v Speaker 2>you think about the leadership of Brian Nickel, maybe what

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<v Speaker 2>he did at Chipotlet and what he can maybe do

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<v Speaker 2>here or has to do here.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think we have to take a step back

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<v Speaker 5>and think about when he was actually at Young right,

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<v Speaker 5>he was the Taco Bell CEO, So granted he was

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<v Speaker 5>not the Young CEO, he was not at the home. However,

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<v Speaker 5>he did ride through the spin off of Young China.

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<v Speaker 5>And I can't say that that's necessarily the direction that

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<v Speaker 5>Starbucks is going. I mean didn't see that at Chipotle,

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<v Speaker 5>but it is something that sort of lurks in the

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<v Speaker 5>back of my mind of Okay, what's management going to do?

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<v Speaker 5>And if you remember what happened with them, not only

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<v Speaker 5>did they spin off YM China, but they took that

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<v Speaker 5>cash and.

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<v Speaker 2>Gave it to shareholders.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, Starbucks before this, going into this, had a three

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<v Speaker 5>year plan of giving back to shareholders twenty billion dollars

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<v Speaker 5>and they had the cash flow for it to some extent,

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<v Speaker 5>but you also thought, okay, some of it might be

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<v Speaker 5>financed with debt. And so I think my question is

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<v Speaker 5>is do they pull back on that and go full

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<v Speaker 5>on kepex? Do they get creative with how they sort

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<v Speaker 5>of deal with licensed versus owned stores, you know, their

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<v Speaker 5>international business versus their their domestic. I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 5>there's a lot of different avenues that he can look at.

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<v Speaker 5>Never mind, of course, you know, the the transition into

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<v Speaker 5>things like dorritos, locos, breakfast sandwiches.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, late, it doesn't really lat yeahs, I'll

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<v Speaker 2>take the coffee upstairs. All right, guys, we got to run.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. Bloomberg News consumer reporter Dina Shanker

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<v Speaker 2>and bloom Intelligence senior credit analyst Jody Lori shares of

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<v Speaker 2>Starbucks hovering, you know, their best levels of the session

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<v Speaker 2>of almost twenty two percent. On the flip side, you've

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<v Speaker 2>got Chipotle Mexican grill off its lows, but tim still

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<v Speaker 2>down about seven percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was Donalds, which is fourteen percent. Scott Boatwright,

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<v Speaker 3>the COO, was named Chappole's interim CEO. So we'll follow

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<v Speaker 3>that company and let you know any developments there when

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<v Speaker 3>it comes to their executive suite.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>In Nantucket, there's a growing sense that the roughly fifty

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<v Speaker 2>square mile island has become a casualty in the push

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<v Speaker 2>for cleaner energy. So any accident, however minor it might be,

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<v Speaker 2>involving the nearby farm, was bound to become a flashpoint

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<v Speaker 2>in the broader fight over win.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's exactly what has happened. Here to talk more

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<v Speaker 3>about the Nantucket rage over a broken wind turbine blade

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<v Speaker 3>is Bloomberg News Energy and climate disasters reporter Josh Saul.

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<v Speaker 3>He's here in our studio. Before we get too far

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<v Speaker 3>into this, remind everyone what happened a few weeks ago

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<v Speaker 3>on Nantucket with this accident.

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<v Speaker 6>We'll do. And I just want to mention everyone who

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<v Speaker 6>can't see me. I did wear my Nantuckias sweater. It's

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<v Speaker 6>pretty good, right, pretty good. No Nantucket red pants, though

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<v Speaker 6>that's true. That would be a whole other step. Nope,

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<v Speaker 6>just the Solomon's, just the dad shoes. So exactly, exactly

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<v Speaker 6>one month ago, one of the blades on the Vineyard

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<v Speaker 6>wind farms. So this is a big, big wind farm.

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<v Speaker 6>It will eventually be sixty two wind turbines, each as

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<v Speaker 6>big as the Eiffel Tower with the Statue of Liberty

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<v Speaker 6>on top of them. Will one single blade fell apart

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<v Speaker 6>and fell into the water, and pieces of that were

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<v Speaker 6>floating in the water. Pieces of it eventually washed ashore

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<v Speaker 6>on Nantucket and created a real uproar on the island.

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<v Speaker 2>What happened though, beaches closed like what kind.

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<v Speaker 6>Of closed for a very short amount of time. People

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<v Speaker 6>on the island were very angry. I likened it to

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<v Speaker 6>annoy spill. It was almost like Jaws approaching the beach,

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<v Speaker 6>like just a really big deal. And the federal government

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<v Speaker 6>shut down both construction and electricity generation at the Vineyard

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<v Speaker 6>wind Farm, which is still ongoing.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, you're from Alaska, I'm from California. We've experienced oil

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<v Speaker 3>spills in our day. Geographically, was this environmentally the same

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<v Speaker 3>on the same level as an oil spill?

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<v Speaker 6>So far, it seems to be a lot smaller, a

0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.720
<v Speaker 6>lot smaller impact. It definitely freaked people out, but we

0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 6>don't have any reports of dead animals. They're you know,

0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:43.280
<v Speaker 6>in comparison, solid chunks of fiberglass are a lot easier

0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.360
<v Speaker 6>to clean up compared to oil in terms of the

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.440
<v Speaker 6>way it spreads, the way, the way it sinks. So yeah,

0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:53.280
<v Speaker 6>it seems like a much more small scale failure compared

0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:54.559
<v Speaker 6>to an actual oil spill.

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.319
<v Speaker 2>A couple of questions, I mean, how often are there

0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.120
<v Speaker 2>accidents with wind farms. I'm just curious about the frequency

0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.440
<v Speaker 2>of it. And also how important though, are these wind

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 2>farms to power on the island in the region. How

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 2>important are they?

0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:12.360
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, the so wind backers, the clean energy advocates view

0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.439
<v Speaker 6>these is extremely important because what they're going to be

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.200
<v Speaker 6>doing is they're going to be sending clean energy, so

0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 6>carbon free energy to the shore kind of at exactly

0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.840
<v Speaker 6>the times, like the windy periods of the day when

0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.120
<v Speaker 6>the grid really needs it. So you can have solar

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.680
<v Speaker 6>on land producing a lot of energy, you know, obviously

0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:32.480
<v Speaker 6>in the middle of the day when the sun is up,

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:36.440
<v Speaker 6>but wind offshore can be sending energy in you know,

0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:38.720
<v Speaker 6>in the morning and the evening and end at night

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.680
<v Speaker 6>when when that solar power isn't available. So it's seen

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.640
<v Speaker 6>as a really important part of the of the transition.

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.280
<v Speaker 2>Josh, is it powered just to the island? Is it

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 2>to other areas?

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.679
<v Speaker 6>I'm just curious how far this stone actually the undersea

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.960
<v Speaker 6>cable will bypass Nantucket and Martha's vineyard kind of running

0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 6>right between them to the mainland, powering the equivalent, according

0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:58.960
<v Speaker 6>to the companies, of about four hundred thousand homes. I mean,

0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.600
<v Speaker 6>these things can produce huge, huge amounts of energy. So

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.320
<v Speaker 6>instead of you know, instead of the you know, natural

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 6>gas plants or other you know, fossil climate changing types

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 6>of generation on land, while we would have you know,

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 6>the offshore wind you know, these clean electrons right flowing there.

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 3>A big part of your story that you wrote along

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>with Cam and the team at Bloomberg News has to

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 3>do with the implications of an accident like this on

0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 3>other wind farm projects throughout the United States that are

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 3>planned for the future. Talk a little bit about what's

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:36.080
<v Speaker 3>being planned right now, some community pushback to these and

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 3>what it could mean to have an accident like this.

0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 6>That's exactly right because under Biden, who said are very

0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:45.320
<v Speaker 6>aggressive offshore wind target of thirty gigawatts by twenty thirty,

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 6>there are a lot of other about of a total

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:52.760
<v Speaker 6>of eight projects in development something like thirteen gigawatts you

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:54.840
<v Speaker 6>know coming on, you know, and you can imagine, you know,

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 6>a gigawatt is about how much nuclear reactor produces, So

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 6>it's a lot a lot of clean energy coming on,

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 6>but Vineyard Wind was really seen or is really seen

0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 6>as kind of the marquee like kind of the first big,

0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 6>big project. There's been some very small pilot projects. There's

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.600
<v Speaker 6>a smaller a smaller wind farm off of Long Island

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.559
<v Speaker 6>built by other developers, but this was seen as kind

0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.320
<v Speaker 6>of the first, like utility scale, like it produces as

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:18.920
<v Speaker 6>much power as a big gas plant. And the worry

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 6>is that even these kind of small even these kind

0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:24.440
<v Speaker 6>of relatively small hiccups like this, produce so much anger,

0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 6>produce so much pushback against this new energy source that,

0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.480
<v Speaker 6>especially with a Trump election, he could, as he said,

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 6>come in on day one and kind of drastically change

0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:38.120
<v Speaker 6>the landscape for these big projects.

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 2>I was thinking about that, how the outcome of the

0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:43.520
<v Speaker 2>November presidential election, whoever is in the White House, that

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 2>might determine the future path when it comes to wind energy,

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.960
<v Speaker 2>wind farms in the future, the growth of this industry

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 2>or has the kind of horse left you know, the

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:54.120
<v Speaker 2>stable already.

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 6>The way we think about it, projects that are already

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 6>permitted and in construction would be a pretty big deal

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 6>for anyone, even a p is it to sort of

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:02.600
<v Speaker 6>you know, tear out of tear out of the seabed.

0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.120
<v Speaker 6>But projects that are you know, still have any kind

0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.600
<v Speaker 6>of permits left to get not particularly hard for a

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:12.640
<v Speaker 6>federal agency to drastically slow down or even stop that process.

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:16.240
<v Speaker 6>Trump said at a big rally in New Jersey, like

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 6>I would stop all this on day one. The worry

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:23.000
<v Speaker 6>with this is that the worry with incidents like this

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 6>is that it just kind of makes it, you know,

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 6>more at the forefront, more more top and hit, you know,

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 6>in his mind or in his administration's mind. And just

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 6>as Biden used presidential powers once he got to office

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:37.240
<v Speaker 6>to slow down or stop offshore gas and oil drilling,

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 6>Trump could conceivably do the same thing with offshore wind.

0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:43.560
<v Speaker 3>One thing that I was thinking about in reading your piece, Josh,

0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.200
<v Speaker 3>is that there's kind of no free launch or no

0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 3>silver bullet when it comes to solving the energy needs

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.000
<v Speaker 3>in a renewable way here in the US and around

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.600
<v Speaker 3>the world. And it seems like there has to be

0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 3>with every project some sort of given to with a

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 3>community or with a location.

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 6>I think that's exactly right. No free lunch, no free energy,

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.080
<v Speaker 6>Like there's trade offs with all these projects, like you build,

0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 6>you know, even what we think of is, oh, a

0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 6>big solar farm in the middle of the desert. That's great.

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.080
<v Speaker 6>People who live nearby in Arizona are mad about, you know,

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:17.760
<v Speaker 6>all the desert tortoises being killed by the construction. And

0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 6>they're also like, hey, we like to ride our horses

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 6>around here. It's more fun to ride your horses when

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.400
<v Speaker 6>it's not a solar farm. Like basically, anywhere you want

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 6>to build energy, there are these tradeoffs and that's you know,

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:31.120
<v Speaker 6>one of the conservationists we spoke to on Nantucket who said,

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.720
<v Speaker 6>by the way, like, yeah, this is completely changed turned

0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:37.120
<v Speaker 6>the tide, but like completely changed how the island feels

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 6>about it. Like the island is pretty united against offshore

0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.920
<v Speaker 6>wind at least right now. And he said, you know,

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:47.160
<v Speaker 6>and he said, there's trade offs any and there's benefits

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 6>and costs with any energy source.

0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:50.640
<v Speaker 2>You know, where does this leave Vineyard Wind?

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 3>Right?

0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 2>This is the company behind the wind farms. And I

0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 2>also do think about like oversight. You don't want these

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 2>things to fall apart. You want them to work, just

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.040
<v Speaker 2>like if you build a nuclear power plant, you don't

0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:00.680
<v Speaker 2>want to melt down, Like you've got to make sure

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 2>that there's oversight. Is there enough oversight or is it

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:04.640
<v Speaker 2>a company issue?

0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:04.919
<v Speaker 7>Is it?

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.119
<v Speaker 2>What was it? And we just got about thirty seconds.

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 6>Here Vineyard Wind and then the turbine maker, Gieve Vernova

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 6>have been very active about both cleaning and cleaning up

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:16.439
<v Speaker 6>debris and also checking checking turbines to make sure this

0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.760
<v Speaker 6>doesn't happen again. This could change some oversight or the

0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.919
<v Speaker 6>amount of money that companies have to put forward.

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.000
<v Speaker 2>All right, something we're going to keep a watch on.

0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.679
<v Speaker 2>Really good stuff, and the sweater totally appreciate that.

0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:27.960
<v Speaker 1>Thank you.

0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.399
<v Speaker 2>Josh Saul He is Energy and climate disasters reporter here

0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:33.880
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg News. Joining us here in studio.

0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.720
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:43.160
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and

0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:46.160
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.400
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:54.720
<v Speaker 1>station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Well.

0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 3>Our Bloomberg News colleague Will Wade, writing this week that

0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:00.920
<v Speaker 3>even as temperatures on Earth smash new records and scientists

0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 3>warn the climate is reaching dangerous tipping points, the amount

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 3>of coal being consumed keeps on growing. The basic problem

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:11.000
<v Speaker 3>is simple. Whenever the security of electricity supply is in doubt,

0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.880
<v Speaker 3>Will writes, the imperative to contain global warming slips down

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 3>the agenda. Coal, we should notice, the biggest source of electricity.

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.600
<v Speaker 3>It accounts for thirty five percent of the world's generation

0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty three. That's according to Ember, a climate

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 3>think tank.

0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:26.639
<v Speaker 2>All right, so Randall Atkins knows all about this. He's founder,

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.760
<v Speaker 2>chairman CEO of Ramaco Resources, a publicly held six hundred

0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 2>and fifty million dollar market cap company that produces metallurgical coal.

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.880
<v Speaker 2>It's the type of coal used in steelmaking companies, also,

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.800
<v Speaker 2>in their words, exploring domestic production of rare elf element

0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 2>rear earth elements, which is what we are super interested

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:47.879
<v Speaker 2>in to hear a little bit more about. Randall joins

0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:52.320
<v Speaker 2>us from Bluefield Coal Symposium in West Virginia. Randall, great

0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:53.360
<v Speaker 2>to have you here with us.

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:56.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I just want to start with the nuance here

0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:58.720
<v Speaker 3>because and this is what I wanted. This was a

0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.159
<v Speaker 3>really important conversation that I had with Alex Steel ahead

0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 3>of this interview, because I don't talk about coal every day.

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.440
<v Speaker 2>No you don't, but you guys were like going.

0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.040
<v Speaker 3>I did some research. I talked to Alex Randall. There's

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.919
<v Speaker 3>important nuance here. I talked about electricity generation in my intro.

0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:14.480
<v Speaker 3>But when, because that's when we talk about coal that's

0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 3>used for electricity generation, we're talking about thermal coal. You

0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 3>produce metallurgical coal. So explain the nuance here.

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.960
<v Speaker 8>Sure, well, as we say, first of all, we actually

0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 8>have come up with a new name. We don't call

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 8>it coal. We call it carbon ore because we essentially

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 8>approach it as to what its use is being from

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 8>an underlying perspective. So you're absolutely correct. There's sort of

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.359
<v Speaker 8>three legs to the stool, as we call it for

0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.440
<v Speaker 8>coal use. One is obviously for combustion and power, one

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 8>is basically to make steel used in blast furnaces, and frankly,

0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:54.680
<v Speaker 8>the third and somewhat less understood use is what we

0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 8>call advanced coal products and materials, which also include critical

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.600
<v Speaker 8>men roles in rare earth. So that's that's sort of

0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:04.680
<v Speaker 8>what we've been paying a lot of attention to for

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:06.160
<v Speaker 8>about the last twelve years.

0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 2>Randall, Can all coal be each of these three?

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:15.359
<v Speaker 8>So, in a simple answer, all cold are not created equal,

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:20.639
<v Speaker 8>so they're distinguished by chemical properties, and the chemical properties

0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:25.440
<v Speaker 8>then somewhat dictate their best and high issues. But what

0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:28.320
<v Speaker 8>we've discovered, at least for the third use coal to

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:32.880
<v Speaker 8>chemical coal to advance carbon products and materials. Those can

0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 8>be made from either thermal or met coal.

0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.720
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so let's move to rare Earth's and talk a

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:42.440
<v Speaker 3>little bit about what's going on in your mind where

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:46.440
<v Speaker 3>you acquired it for several million dollars. But there was

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 3>this fascinating story in the Wall Street Journal back in

0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:53.720
<v Speaker 3>the fall about how if everything sort of goes in

0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:57.600
<v Speaker 3>your direction, there could be tens of billions of dollars

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 3>worth of rare earths in that mind. What's going on there?

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 8>Well, the greatest expression it's better to be lucky than

0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:10.679
<v Speaker 8>smart sometimes, isn't it. So we bought this old thermal

0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:12.960
<v Speaker 8>coal mine, and frankly, it took about a year and

0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:16.040
<v Speaker 8>a half to figure out that making a new thermal

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.919
<v Speaker 8>coal mine for utility use was somewhat of a losing

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:23.160
<v Speaker 8>proposition to deploy capital on. So we pivoted and frankly

0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:26.159
<v Speaker 8>took a technology route to try to figure out what

0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:29.520
<v Speaker 8>else coal could be used for. That brought us into

0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:32.880
<v Speaker 8>touch with a couple of the Department of Energy National Labs,

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 8>and they worked with us on not only carbon products,

0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:40.680
<v Speaker 8>but we're exploring, frankly, on behalf of the Defense Department

0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:44.639
<v Speaker 8>where rarers might be found in the US. There's always

0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.600
<v Speaker 8>been a thesis that they could be found in coal,

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 8>but it had never been shown or proven. So we

0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:51.639
<v Speaker 8>sent them some samples, took them about a year and

0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:54.480
<v Speaker 8>a half, lo and behold. They come back and said, look,

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:57.959
<v Speaker 8>we found higher concentrations of rare earth in your deposits

0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:01.320
<v Speaker 8>and any place we've seen outside of West China. So

0:22:01.800 --> 0:22:04.399
<v Speaker 8>that's put us on this odyssey to where we stay today,

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:06.960
<v Speaker 8>where we're hoping to actually be in a position to

0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:12.200
<v Speaker 8>start a demonstration facility next year to actually go into

0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.560
<v Speaker 8>production and refining of rare earth that we already have

0:22:15.600 --> 0:22:18.479
<v Speaker 8>a permit on that come from coal and the carbon

0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 8>material sort of around it. Most rare earth comes from

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:28.200
<v Speaker 8>hard minerals uraniums, cobalt, so lithiums, which frankly are radioactive

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:31.639
<v Speaker 8>when you mind them, and so that's why all the

0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:35.240
<v Speaker 8>rare earths, frankly are sent to China for processing, which

0:22:35.280 --> 0:22:38.040
<v Speaker 8>is sort of self defeating. So if we're able to

0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:41.959
<v Speaker 8>actually produce rare earth from coal here in the US

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 8>and process them here in the US. That's going to

0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:45.919
<v Speaker 8>be a distinct advantage.

0:22:46.200 --> 0:22:50.560
<v Speaker 3>Randall, I'm wondering if it's fair to say that, if

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:54.680
<v Speaker 3>everything goes according to plan with the mine that could

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:59.640
<v Speaker 3>have rare earths, would you move away completely from traditional

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:01.439
<v Speaker 3>coal mining.

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:06.200
<v Speaker 8>Well, I think the interesting thing is that it's frankly

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 8>one and the same in our case, because we're mining

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 8>the coal to get to the rare earth.

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.439
<v Speaker 3>So, yeah, explain how that processing exactly works. I know

0:23:16.480 --> 0:23:19.040
<v Speaker 3>you mentioned that glad to be previously sent to China,

0:23:19.040 --> 0:23:20.879
<v Speaker 3>but how do you pull it off here in the US.

0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 8>Sure, nothing simple, But the way it works is we

0:23:24.920 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 8>basically mine the coal. The rare earths are actually contained

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:31.879
<v Speaker 8>in minerals in the coal, So what we would do

0:23:32.000 --> 0:23:35.439
<v Speaker 8>is then process the rare earth out of the coal

0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:41.440
<v Speaker 8>by frankly, a paralysis or a heating process, and then

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:45.439
<v Speaker 8>do various forms of separation. So, in essence, even though

0:23:45.880 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 8>we're still in the coal mining business, the end product

0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 8>is really rare earth.

0:23:51.200 --> 0:23:53.440
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking at a stat that says China produces sixty

0:23:53.440 --> 0:23:56.679
<v Speaker 2>percent of the world's rare earths but processes nearly ninety percent,

0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:59.359
<v Speaker 2>which means that it's importing rare earth from other countries

0:23:59.359 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 2>in processing them. So what you're saying is we not

0:24:02.000 --> 0:24:03.840
<v Speaker 2>only have to produce them, but we have to process them.

0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:07.520
<v Speaker 2>That that's really important. What I'm curious about is what's

0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:12.320
<v Speaker 2>the potential of your mind, what's the cost to bring

0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:15.199
<v Speaker 2>it to potential? And what are the guarantees that you

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 2>can actually spend the money and get to that potential.

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:23.000
<v Speaker 8>Sure, but to kind of break it down, you know,

0:24:23.040 --> 0:24:25.359
<v Speaker 8>what you do in a mind of this nature is

0:24:25.400 --> 0:24:30.639
<v Speaker 8>you go through a fairly complex technoeconomic analysis which you

0:24:30.680 --> 0:24:33.239
<v Speaker 8>know breaks down not only the mining but also the

0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:37.640
<v Speaker 8>processing and refinement, and you know, discover what each part

0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:42.360
<v Speaker 8>of that component production costs. Will have that prepared by

0:24:42.400 --> 0:24:45.320
<v Speaker 8>the end of the year with Florin Company, who's kind

0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 8>of advising us on that, we've got a pretty good

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:50.399
<v Speaker 8>sense of it right now, so we know that we

0:24:50.440 --> 0:24:52.880
<v Speaker 8>think it is commercial. We obviously want to get down

0:24:52.880 --> 0:24:56.160
<v Speaker 8>to the detail because for the public company we start

0:24:56.160 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 8>throwing numbers out, we want to have some independent confirmation.

0:24:59.240 --> 0:25:03.160
<v Speaker 8>But we think it will commercial basically even at today's prices,

0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:06.160
<v Speaker 8>which are a little bit manipulated by China who tries

0:25:06.200 --> 0:25:09.959
<v Speaker 8>to keep all the competition out off the off the field,

0:25:10.520 --> 0:25:13.679
<v Speaker 8>and if we're able to do this and process it

0:25:13.720 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 8>in the United States, needless to say, becomes very important

0:25:17.359 --> 0:25:21.440
<v Speaker 8>strategically because frankly, as I was just saying to this

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:24.879
<v Speaker 8>group here, you know, when the Defense Department needs to

0:25:24.880 --> 0:25:30.400
<v Speaker 8>get rare earth for our hypersonic missiles and drones, they

0:25:30.440 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 8>unfortunately at this point have to call a procurement office

0:25:33.560 --> 0:25:36.480
<v Speaker 8>in China, so that doesn't always work out quite well.

0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:40.320
<v Speaker 2>So what's the potential in terms of this MIND and

0:25:40.359 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 2>what it might produce and what it might be worth?

0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:47.520
<v Speaker 8>Sure, so I think the initial numbers we have were

0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 8>that it got probably north of a million and a

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 8>half tons of rare earth, which are concentrated mostly in

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:57.399
<v Speaker 8>the heavy and medium magnetic rare earth, which are the

0:25:57.480 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 8>more valuable. For some context, the US uses only about

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:05.119
<v Speaker 8>ten thousand tons a year, so if we've got a

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:08.360
<v Speaker 8>million and a half plus, it's a long term supply.

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.560
<v Speaker 8>So I think, you know, that's that's the critical advantage

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 8>that the government is trying to insent us to pursue

0:26:15.880 --> 0:26:18.639
<v Speaker 8>this MIND because it could solve potentially a lot of

0:26:18.680 --> 0:26:23.920
<v Speaker 8>supply problems. And then in terms of the ultimate value.

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:28.359
<v Speaker 8>You know, needless to say, rarer earth sell for a

0:26:28.359 --> 0:26:31.680
<v Speaker 8>great deal more than a ton of coal. Some of

0:26:31.720 --> 0:26:34.040
<v Speaker 8>the critical minerals and rare earth we've got sell for

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:37.959
<v Speaker 8>around a million dollars or more a ton. So compare

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:40.520
<v Speaker 8>that the coal that sells for thermal purposes out with

0:26:40.720 --> 0:26:44.560
<v Speaker 8>for fifteen dollars a ton, or even metaur allergic coal

0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:46.640
<v Speaker 8>for say two hundred dollars a ton, and you get

0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:47.440
<v Speaker 8>kind of a sense.

0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Randall, we're talking a lot about the government, and

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:52.680
<v Speaker 3>one thing that comes to mind is what a change

0:26:52.680 --> 0:26:56.679
<v Speaker 3>in administration would mean for your company. How are you

0:26:56.680 --> 0:26:57.600
<v Speaker 3>thinking about the election?

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 8>Well, needless to say, in general, uh, as somebody who's

0:27:04.040 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 8>you know, a student of the coal industry. Uh, times

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:11.399
<v Speaker 8>were a little bit more comfortable under Republican administrations than

0:27:11.400 --> 0:27:15.000
<v Speaker 8>they have been under democratic administrations. I would say, you know,

0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:19.080
<v Speaker 8>the main pushback, of course against coal is its use

0:27:19.160 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 8>as a combustion fuel. There's less pushback for metallurgic purposes,

0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 8>and frankly, for rare purposes there should be none at all.

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:30.640
<v Speaker 8>And I think the interesting thing, uh, you know, administrations

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:34.320
<v Speaker 8>may come and go, but as far as the strategic requirement,

0:27:34.520 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 8>particularly for rare Earth. I think that cuts across political boundaries. So, uh,

0:27:40.480 --> 0:27:45.080
<v Speaker 8>you know, obviously, uh, we're already permitted, we're in the

0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:49.840
<v Speaker 8>process of you know, starting our initial development and uh,

0:27:49.920 --> 0:27:52.360
<v Speaker 8>you know, we'll we'll deal with whatever you know, political

0:27:52.400 --> 0:27:53.480
<v Speaker 8>landscape is out there.

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:55.760
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Randall, the elephant in the room here that I

0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:58.800
<v Speaker 3>kind of opened with this is climate change. And we

0:27:59.080 --> 0:28:02.159
<v Speaker 3>it's it's it's own that coal is the dirtiest of

0:28:02.320 --> 0:28:06.520
<v Speaker 3>fossil fuels. And I'm wondering how you think about that

0:28:06.840 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 3>in terms of you know, quote unquote clean coal. How

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:14.160
<v Speaker 3>do you make burning coal release less emissions? Is that

0:28:14.280 --> 0:28:16.000
<v Speaker 3>possible to make clean coal?

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.480
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, well, we basically have come up with, you know,

0:28:19.560 --> 0:28:22.120
<v Speaker 8>a lot of one liners, one of which is coal

0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:25.919
<v Speaker 8>is too valuable to burn. Another, which is what we

0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:28.960
<v Speaker 8>call the cure for coal, And essentially the cure for

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 8>coal is that you've got to do several things at once.

0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:35.679
<v Speaker 8>You've got to basically have a solution that speaks to

0:28:35.720 --> 0:28:39.480
<v Speaker 8>the decarbonization of the commodity. You've got to do something

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:44.800
<v Speaker 8>that basically, you know, supplies the value proposition or greater

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:47.240
<v Speaker 8>than it does now, and you need to be able

0:28:47.280 --> 0:28:49.640
<v Speaker 8>to supply that in volumes that you know, make it

0:28:49.720 --> 0:28:52.200
<v Speaker 8>sense for the coal business. That's why we've kind of

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:55.560
<v Speaker 8>turned to this use of coal as a precursor to

0:28:55.640 --> 0:28:59.640
<v Speaker 8>make advanced carbon products and materials. These are things like graphite,

0:29:00.600 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 8>synthetic graphite, graphene, carbon fibers, a lot of things that

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 8>historically have been made from petroleum, but you can make

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 8>them chemically from coal, and you can make them from

0:29:13.120 --> 0:29:18.400
<v Speaker 8>coal at a vastly lower price than using petroleum. The

0:29:18.480 --> 0:29:21.560
<v Speaker 8>interesting stat is that there's the same amount of carbon

0:29:22.000 --> 0:29:23.560
<v Speaker 8>and a ton of coal as there is in a

0:29:23.600 --> 0:29:27.560
<v Speaker 8>ton of petroleum. A ton of petroleum is like seven barrels,

0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:31.320
<v Speaker 8>So you use eighty dollars a barrel, you're at, you know,

0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:34.280
<v Speaker 8>five hundred and forty million permanent five hundred and forty

0:29:34.360 --> 0:29:38.680
<v Speaker 8>dollars for a ton of carbon versus fifteen for coal.

0:29:39.240 --> 0:29:43.120
<v Speaker 8>So when you think about use of things like carbon fibers,

0:29:43.200 --> 0:29:46.880
<v Speaker 8>which have properties that are frankly, yeah, superior to steal

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:51.920
<v Speaker 8>in terms of lightweighting. Okay, that type of thing, it's

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 8>a fairly compelling economic argument to use coal.

0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:57.360
<v Speaker 2>All right, We certainly could continue. There's lots more, certainly

0:29:57.360 --> 0:30:00.160
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to environmental impact, but hopefully now next

0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:02.960
<v Speaker 2>time Randall Atkins. We hope you can continue this conversation, founder,

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:06.000
<v Speaker 2>chairman and CEO ram A Co Resources. This is Blueberg

0:30:06.840 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 2>brother Marco.

0:30:10.440 --> 0:30:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Journal.

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:12.920
<v Speaker 2>How about you let me drive?

0:30:13.200 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 4>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, how do the riding gravels?

0:30:19.080 --> 0:30:20.440
<v Speaker 1>Let's mate, I want to drive.

0:30:20.440 --> 0:30:24.600
<v Speaker 7>It's a good question time.

0:30:27.440 --> 0:30:29.720
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe.

0:30:29.560 --> 0:30:30.360
<v Speaker 7>Dot com for me.

0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll buy around on Bloomberg Radio.

0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:35.880
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, eighteen minutes or so.

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:38.840
<v Speaker 3>To go until we wrap up the Treaky Friday. No,

0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 3>it's not freaky Friday.

0:30:40.200 --> 0:30:40.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't know.

0:30:40.680 --> 0:30:41.640
<v Speaker 2>I don't even know what to call it.

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:42.280
<v Speaker 3>Taco Tuesday.

0:30:42.280 --> 0:30:45.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking for a Taco Tuesday. Thank you so much.

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:47.680
<v Speaker 2>Thank you to Pole. Moving on to Starbucks. All right,

0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:50.080
<v Speaker 2>we're pretty much hovering near our highs of the session.

0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:52.840
<v Speaker 2>We've seen investors move into both stocks and bonds, which

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:56.080
<v Speaker 2>doesn't typically happen, but here we go on this Taco Tuesday.

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:58.320
<v Speaker 2>So let's get to it with Aaron Cannon, co founder

0:30:58.360 --> 0:31:00.760
<v Speaker 2>and CEO over at Clear Harbor Asset Management. They've got

0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:03.920
<v Speaker 2>one and a half billion in assets under management. Joining

0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 2>us once again from Stanford, Connecticut. Forgive us. It's a

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:08.600
<v Speaker 2>little bit of a wacky day, Aaron, how are you.

0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:12.440
<v Speaker 7>I'm doing just fine. Thanks for having me back well too.

0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:15.840
<v Speaker 2>We're hanging in there. The recent bat of volatility a

0:31:15.840 --> 0:31:18.560
<v Speaker 2>week ago or so, we would have been having a

0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 2>very different conversation the three of us. Was that volatility

0:31:22.720 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 2>that we saw one week ago yesterday noteworthy or to

0:31:26.920 --> 0:31:30.040
<v Speaker 2>be considered expected considering the run up that we've seen

0:31:30.280 --> 0:31:33.160
<v Speaker 2>in the overall equity markets and in particular in some

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:34.520
<v Speaker 2>specific names.

0:31:35.200 --> 0:31:39.560
<v Speaker 7>Well, that's a great question, Carol. I think at the

0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:42.640
<v Speaker 7>end of the day, we're at a point of transition

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:45.160
<v Speaker 7>on a monetary policy front, and we may be at

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:48.120
<v Speaker 7>a point of transition on an economic growth front. And

0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:50.600
<v Speaker 7>we know what we saw a week ago was a

0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:55.800
<v Speaker 7>huge sort of shuddering of markets, and really what sparked

0:31:55.840 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 7>that was a major transition in monetary policy in Japan.

0:32:02.040 --> 0:32:05.880
<v Speaker 7>And you know, I think that while our economic picture

0:32:06.080 --> 0:32:09.160
<v Speaker 7>is decelerating, there's hope for a soft landing. We've seen

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.960
<v Speaker 7>nice disinflationary trends which are now leading the market to

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 7>conclude that the FED is going to cut rates in September.

0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:18.160
<v Speaker 7>They're even calls last week in the middle of the

0:32:18.560 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 7>spike in volatility, to sixty five on the Vicks for

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:24.360
<v Speaker 7>the FED to cut inter meeting. But I do think

0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:26.640
<v Speaker 7>the Fed should should cut, and I think they should

0:32:26.680 --> 0:32:29.320
<v Speaker 7>probably start when they said they will, which will be September.

0:32:29.920 --> 0:32:32.760
<v Speaker 7>And I think where maybe there's some nuance that may

0:32:32.800 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 7>be helpful to ponder is the degree to which the

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 7>US dollar relative to the end could trigger another round

0:32:41.120 --> 0:32:46.240
<v Speaker 7>of yen unwinding, the yen carry unwinding, and certainly monetary

0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:50.000
<v Speaker 7>policy officials would would not welcome that, neither would investors.

0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 7>And so that leads me to think that maybe the

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:55.760
<v Speaker 7>FED cuts in September, but it's a much more gradual

0:32:55.800 --> 0:33:00.160
<v Speaker 7>cut unless the economic data really surprises significantly to the

0:33:00.240 --> 0:33:03.520
<v Speaker 7>downside here in the US, so as to not you know,

0:33:04.240 --> 0:33:08.680
<v Speaker 7>have a huge gap between rates in Japan relative to

0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:12.240
<v Speaker 7>the United States, and therefore have the end be in

0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:15.560
<v Speaker 7>a position where will really appreciate quite significantly. We had

0:33:15.600 --> 0:33:19.360
<v Speaker 7>a nearly eleven percent appreciation in the end just over

0:33:19.400 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 7>the last couple of weeks, and I think that was,

0:33:21.520 --> 0:33:24.200
<v Speaker 7>you know, to a great extent, what has triggered us

0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:26.920
<v Speaker 7>so much of that volatility that we saw last last week.

0:33:27.040 --> 0:33:29.600
<v Speaker 3>Aaron, when you say gradual cuts, do you mean twenty

0:33:29.640 --> 0:33:32.239
<v Speaker 3>five basis points at September, and then maybe two more

0:33:32.360 --> 0:33:35.480
<v Speaker 3>twenty five basis points pass point cuts, so you have

0:33:35.560 --> 0:33:37.080
<v Speaker 3>seventy five BIPs by the end of the year.

0:33:38.400 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, and again I'm sorry of making this point that

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:44.480
<v Speaker 7>if the Fed is of the view which I'm sure

0:33:44.480 --> 0:33:47.000
<v Speaker 7>they are, that yes, they have a dual mandate, but

0:33:47.040 --> 0:33:50.160
<v Speaker 7>they have to think about what happens to employment and

0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:53.840
<v Speaker 7>what happens to pricing, if volatility were to spike, if

0:33:53.840 --> 0:33:56.680
<v Speaker 7>investors were to become rattled, if consumers therefore were to

0:33:56.720 --> 0:33:59.280
<v Speaker 7>become rattled as well. And so while I would be

0:33:59.320 --> 0:34:01.720
<v Speaker 7>in the camp of, you know, without having to worry

0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:03.920
<v Speaker 7>about the n on wine if that were not an issue,

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:08.120
<v Speaker 7>or global capital markets more generally, of maybe something more

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:11.080
<v Speaker 7>aggressive approach to cutting rates over the next quorder to

0:34:11.160 --> 0:34:16.440
<v Speaker 7>two maybe they'll they'll they'll perhaps be taking their time

0:34:16.600 --> 0:34:20.000
<v Speaker 7>so as to not alter this sort of relationship in

0:34:20.160 --> 0:34:23.480
<v Speaker 7>dollar end to any great degree going forward. We know

0:34:23.600 --> 0:34:27.000
<v Speaker 7>the Bank of Japan essentially signal to the market after

0:34:27.000 --> 0:34:30.719
<v Speaker 7>the twelve percent slump in the NICK just one day

0:34:30.840 --> 0:34:33.200
<v Speaker 7>last week that you know, may maybe they'll be a

0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:36.840
<v Speaker 7>little more cautious. They won't hike rates as aggressively and

0:34:36.920 --> 0:34:41.000
<v Speaker 7>so that was an interesting marker across the pond for sure.

0:34:41.239 --> 0:34:45.080
<v Speaker 2>So I am curious to aaron our pullbacks opportunities to

0:34:45.200 --> 0:34:50.239
<v Speaker 2>buy are are they time to rethink kind of your

0:34:50.440 --> 0:34:51.360
<v Speaker 2>acid allocation?

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:55.239
<v Speaker 7>I mean, I always think, you know, when in the

0:34:55.239 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 7>context of an overall sort of multi asset class portfolio

0:34:59.280 --> 0:35:02.200
<v Speaker 7>for types of clients that we manage money for here

0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:04.839
<v Speaker 7>at Clear Harbor, sort of the high net worth ultra

0:35:04.880 --> 0:35:07.600
<v Speaker 7>high net worth, non for profit clients, you always want

0:35:07.640 --> 0:35:10.839
<v Speaker 7>to know what's your target allocation? Are you under that

0:35:11.000 --> 0:35:13.759
<v Speaker 7>at the position level, at the asset class level, are

0:35:13.800 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 7>you over it? Is there a time to sort of rebalance?

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:19.200
<v Speaker 7>And oftentimes when there's a market swoon like that, it's

0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:21.680
<v Speaker 7>a time to sort of think about, you know, adding

0:35:21.719 --> 0:35:24.759
<v Speaker 7>to things that perhaps you were slightly underweight. It's also

0:35:24.800 --> 0:35:28.560
<v Speaker 7>a time to think about, you know, correlations. When volatility rises,

0:35:29.040 --> 0:35:32.480
<v Speaker 7>things tend to correlate again, particularly in the day when

0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:35.040
<v Speaker 7>that spike occurs, but to sort of think about correlations

0:35:35.120 --> 0:35:39.520
<v Speaker 7>during times of uncertainty, but also during times of normalization.

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 7>And so I think, you know, going forward to what

0:35:42.840 --> 0:35:45.759
<v Speaker 7>we believe to be the case is, you know, on

0:35:45.800 --> 0:35:48.560
<v Speaker 7>the fixed income side, maybe moving duration a little further

0:35:48.640 --> 0:35:50.760
<v Speaker 7>out the curve. I think a lot of fixed income

0:35:50.800 --> 0:35:55.279
<v Speaker 7>dollars with individuals and even some institutions is hugging the

0:35:55.320 --> 0:35:57.280
<v Speaker 7>sort of one to six month part of the curve

0:35:57.280 --> 0:36:00.880
<v Speaker 7>in the form of treasury bills, and you know, maybe

0:36:01.040 --> 0:36:04.320
<v Speaker 7>moving away from that notion. If you look at treasury

0:36:04.320 --> 0:36:06.520
<v Speaker 7>bills even today, you know you can go out to

0:36:06.560 --> 0:36:09.279
<v Speaker 7>three months and yield five percent. But now, unlike just

0:36:09.320 --> 0:36:11.640
<v Speaker 7>a couple of weeks ago, you have a four handle

0:36:11.680 --> 0:36:13.239
<v Speaker 7>on your treasury bills. So you may want to be

0:36:13.320 --> 0:36:15.560
<v Speaker 7>thinking about moving out the curve, maybe not to ten

0:36:15.640 --> 0:36:18.560
<v Speaker 7>years or thirty years, but certainly two, three, four, five years,

0:36:18.800 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 7>because you.

0:36:19.160 --> 0:36:21.479
<v Speaker 2>Think we've topped out? Do you think we've in terms

0:36:21.560 --> 0:36:24.399
<v Speaker 2>of rates along the yield curve, the US yeal curve,

0:36:24.440 --> 0:36:26.759
<v Speaker 2>do you think we've you know, the idea of five

0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:29.200
<v Speaker 2>or six which we were talking about not so long ago,

0:36:30.520 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 2>more consistently, Do you think we've topped out here and

0:36:33.760 --> 0:36:36.759
<v Speaker 2>that where we are right now? Or where do you

0:36:36.800 --> 0:36:38.480
<v Speaker 2>think we are? You know when it comes to the

0:36:38.520 --> 0:36:40.400
<v Speaker 2>two and the ten in particular.

0:36:41.000 --> 0:36:43.200
<v Speaker 7>I mean, the short answer is I don't know, but

0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:47.400
<v Speaker 7>I do think that it seems as though the balance

0:36:47.400 --> 0:36:50.960
<v Speaker 7>of risks would suggest more incremental weakness in the economy

0:36:51.360 --> 0:36:54.319
<v Speaker 7>and more incremental weakness and employment, which would suggest that

0:36:54.400 --> 0:36:56.799
<v Speaker 7>nominal rates could come down. But what I do know

0:36:57.239 --> 0:37:00.880
<v Speaker 7>just by looking at the break even inflation relative to

0:37:00.960 --> 0:37:03.960
<v Speaker 7>let's say the nominal tenure treasury rate, is that ten

0:37:04.000 --> 0:37:06.799
<v Speaker 7>year treasuries are not particularly expensive right now. They're not

0:37:07.000 --> 0:37:10.000
<v Speaker 7>uber cheap, but within the context of the last two years,

0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:13.040
<v Speaker 7>they're quite attractive, and so it gives some confidence to

0:37:13.080 --> 0:37:17.359
<v Speaker 7>sort of say extending duration right now with the long

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:20.840
<v Speaker 7>term inflation rates where they are, tenure break evens are

0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:23.640
<v Speaker 7>only two point zho nine to two ten on Bloomberg terminal.

0:37:23.640 --> 0:37:26.120
<v Speaker 7>Today is sort of attractive.

0:37:26.800 --> 0:37:30.920
<v Speaker 3>Okay, we got CPI tomorrow, we got retail sales coming

0:37:31.040 --> 0:37:35.560
<v Speaker 3>on Thursday. Gosh, we have even more. We've quite a

0:37:35.600 --> 0:37:38.719
<v Speaker 3>bit with so much economic data this week. Yeah, we

0:37:38.760 --> 0:37:43.000
<v Speaker 3>do aaron just thirty seconds, what could surprise to the

0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:45.960
<v Speaker 3>upside and sort of like shatter the soft landing narrative

0:37:46.000 --> 0:37:46.880
<v Speaker 3>thirty seconds.

0:37:47.640 --> 0:37:50.640
<v Speaker 7>Well, of course, if CPI is for some reason hot,

0:37:50.680 --> 0:37:53.160
<v Speaker 7>which the market is not anticipating. With the treasury markets

0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:55.960
<v Speaker 7>off what five seven basis points today, meaning prices are

0:37:56.040 --> 0:38:00.440
<v Speaker 7>higher yields are lower and PPI was was on the

0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:04.799
<v Speaker 7>softer side. That would maybe bring some pause, but it

0:38:04.840 --> 0:38:06.600
<v Speaker 7>doesn't make a trend. I think the trend if you

0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:10.279
<v Speaker 7>look at core inflation, headline inflation has been downward. A

0:38:10.400 --> 0:38:14.239
<v Speaker 7>slightly elevated CPI number probably would spook the market too much.

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:17.239
<v Speaker 7>I still think September cut is in the cards. I

0:38:17.239 --> 0:38:20.640
<v Speaker 7>think retail sales would be a surprise if they're really overshot,

0:38:20.719 --> 0:38:23.080
<v Speaker 7>given what we're seeing in earnings, whether it's today with

0:38:23.320 --> 0:38:26.920
<v Speaker 7>Depot or consumer staples companies, there's a lot of caution

0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:28.560
<v Speaker 7>on the consumer fund right now.

0:38:28.680 --> 0:38:30.400
<v Speaker 2>All right, good to keep in mind as we go

0:38:30.480 --> 0:38:33.600
<v Speaker 2>through those data points. Aaron Karn Aaron Kennon excuse me,

0:38:33.640 --> 0:38:36.360
<v Speaker 2>co founder and CEE at Clear Harbor Asset Management, joining

0:38:36.440 --> 0:38:39.400
<v Speaker 2>us as he has before from Stanford, Connecticut. They've got

0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:41.640
<v Speaker 2>about one and a half billion in assets under management.

0:38:42.280 --> 0:38:47.000
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll available on Apple, Spotify,

0:38:47.040 --> 0:38:50.240
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<v Speaker 7>M m hm