WEBVTT - A Warning For American Democracy: How Trump Is Following Putin's Corruption Blueprint 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:06.880 Happy Wednesday, Happy Day, one of the second one hundred 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:11.520 days of the Trump administration. I got a fascinating interview 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:14.600 coming up today with a woman by the name of 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:17.880 Jody Vittori. She's a military veteran. She's a professor in 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:22.720 practice for global politics with a concentration on national security 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.880 issues at Georgetown University. But she spent a lion's share 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:28.680 of her career in the military, educated at the Air 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:33.720 Force Academy, and she's a specialist in kleptocracies, and actually, 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:38.360 you know how democracies get corrupted, and she wrote a 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:43.519 pretty provocative piece for Foreign Affairs about that issue. Is 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.640 America creeping into a kleptocracy? You've probably heard me use 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:49.919 that word. I said that in twenty twenty four, at 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.280 a minimum, that Donald Trump had turned the Republican Party 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:55.160 in some ways into a kleptocracy. I don't think we're 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.560 there yet as a country, but when you have things 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:02.000 like this inaugural fund that law firms have to pay 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:06.039 into in order to keep the government off their back, 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:11.200 that would pretty much put you into that in that 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:15.720 category where you might be arguing that we are creeping 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:18.560 into that. So, look, it's a long conversation. I want 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:20.080 to get into that, but before I get into that, 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.639 I want to talk a little bit about the second 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:26.199 hundred days because I think in fairness to him, you know, look, 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:28.160 I've been highly critical because I think this has been 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:30.960 a disastrous start. This is not because whether I support 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.800 them or oppose them. This is just political incompetence how 0:01:34.800 --> 0:01:38.400 they've gone about this. Yes, I think it's economic incompetence too. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.479 But if this was the plan, they've executed the plan 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:45.959 extraordinarily poorly. Right, there was a way to do government 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.400 reform better and more secure. There was a way to 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.320 do Tariff's better. There was probably a way to order 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.560 reorder his agenda, but he chose not to do it. 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.639 And there's a fundamental part of his presidency that strikes 0:01:57.680 --> 0:01:59.800 me as a bit lazy, that he is kind of 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.240 ailing it in. And you know, one way you can 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.960 see this that Donald Trump is now mailing in the presidency. 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.680 It's his travel schedule for the first hundred days. He 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:10.880 marked the one hundred day with a trip to Michigan. 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:13.760 What's shocking about his trip to Michigan is that that's 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:20.560 the first essaidually, it's the first battleground state he's bothered 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.000 to visit since the beginning of his term. He had 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.960 one day where he traveled to North Carolina, Nevada, in California. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.600 He was checking out flood damage in North Carolina. This 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.600 was right there. He was trying to It was something 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.120 he had been scoring points on due to the what 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:39.160 was a poor recovery effort led by FEMA in western 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:42.200 North Carolina during the remnants of a hurricane that devastated 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:44.600 them with floods in western North Carolina. So he made 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.560 a political stop there, made a political stop in Nevada, 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:51.840 and then made a tour of the wildfire damage in LA. 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.480 But you take that day away, and that's three less. Basically, 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:57.720 the only trips he would have made are to the 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:00.720 super Bowl, to the Daytona five hundred and to Bedminster 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.720 or mar A Lago over and over and over again. 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:06.600 And what's interesting is that it's quite the contrast from 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:08.359 his first term and his first term. In the first 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:10.680 under days, he traveled quite a bit. In fact, he 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:13.160 was a very you know, yes, he's still golfed quite 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:17.400 a bit. Now he seems to be only golfing on weekends. 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.720 He's spent at one point six days in a row 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:21.919 mar Alago, going to my friends over at NBC News 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.799 where some federal workers were wondering if he was qualifying 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:30.480 for work for home benefits there. He was there so long. 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.480 But there is a sense that he is just either 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.120 not interested in traveling the country, not wanting to hold 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.960 his rallies, which he used to love to do in 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.720 his first term. And I think it's it's I actually 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:46.240 think this is another bad political mistake, right, And this 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.520 is what happens when you surround yourself with people that 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.240 just tell you what you want to hear. He doesn't 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.440 want to travel, he doesn't want to work very hard, 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.080 so he gets to go back to Marlago so he 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:56.440 can go golf, or he gets to go back to 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:58.960 Bedminster and so he could go golf. He was in 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.120 the first term surrounded people that said, you know, especially 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:04.400 if you want to win reelection, you need to be 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.840 communicating with the public what you're trying to do. The 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:12.240 tariff policies are extraordinarily unpopular. His inability to even communicate 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.400 what they're supposed to do has made it even worse 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:19.120 for him. So the fact that he waited literally to 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:24.080 his hundredth day to have his first public event outside 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:28.000 of Washington to explain his tariff policy. I think that 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:33.040 just strikes me as lazy, and it is kind of 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.239 the hallmark of how this White House has been run. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:39.479 You know. In some ways they make it look like 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:42.640 there's a lot of motion going on, but in some 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.760 ways they're not. You know, take he signs executive orders, 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.240 but he doesn't try to pass legislation. They're trying to 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:51.960 take a lot of political shortcuts they're not doing If 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:54.320 you wanted to cut government, you wouldn't do it the 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.640 way they're doing it with those because most of the 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.320 cuts that they make are going to get restored. Most 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:01.520 of the executive order he's signing are going to get 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.640 thrown out by the courts. If he wanted to make 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:08.200 real change. He has a Republican Congress. It's pretty compliant, 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:13.200 but guess what legislation is hard. Trying to get lawmakers 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.840 to do. It's going to take time and effort, and 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:18.760 I think, you know, we sit here and wonder, Oh, 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.840 he's an authoritarian. In some ways, he's an authoritarian by laziness, 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.880 meaning he'd prefer to just sign edicts because he doesn't 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.240 want to have to put in the work that it 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.320 takes to host members of Congress and cajole them to 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:33.800 do X, or host members of Congress and condrole them 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:37.039 to do why, or travel the country and put public 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:41.000 political pressure. He doesn't know. For a guy who prides 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.200 himself at being mister salesman and mister art of the deal, 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:47.600 he's done a terrible job of selling his policies and 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.360 selling them to the country. He has spent a lot 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:52.680 more time on true social that he has talking with 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:57.760 people outside of his bubble. It is notable to me 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:01.800 that this week he's at least doing interviews with media 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:07.960 entities that are not just espousing the MAGA line of thinking. 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:12.600 He interviewed with ABC News, interview with The Atlantic, and 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:14.520 that is a huge difference from Trump one point oh, 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.159 Trump one point oh talk to everybody. Trump one point 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.279 oh was tweeting. Trump one point oh was trying to 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:24.520 communicate with the entire country. I mean, even if let's 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.359 just take the example, let's say he was just so 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.160 lazy he only wanted a golf on weekends. Well, then 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.279 travel the country to different golf courses in golf on weekends, 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:37.120 actually connect with the rest of the American people. Right now, 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:41.120 He's conducting a presidency that is essentially sitting on Air 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:44.120 Force one or one of his two clubs. He's a 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.480 creature of habit. He's creature comfort, and when you get older, 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.599 that's what happens. Joe Biden spent just about every weekend 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.920 in Delaware. Well, you know, Donald Trump wants to spend 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:57.080 every weekend at mar Lago or Bedminster. And so it 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.600 just struck me that to see this event, which was right. 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:03.400 He gets a lot of energy from these things. So 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:07.720 the question is perhaps he maybe he's just getting older, 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.560 getting more tired, doesn't want to you know, needs to 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:12.600 work three and a half four days a week, doesn't 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.040 want to have the full five day weeks. It wants 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:20.280 to have extra recovery time. Whatever it is, I actually 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:25.840 think it's harming his presidency just from a communications standpoint. 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.360 Whether you love him or hate him, he's the best 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:32.160 communicator they have, and he doesn't seem to actually want 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.560 to go out there and communicate with the public. Right now. 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:38.360 He went to Michigan. It's almost like they said, okay, 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.520 we got to have a hundred days event, but he's 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:43.880 right back here. So anyway, it's just fascinating to me 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:48.440 how I think that as tumultuous as the first one 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:52.040 hundred days, there's an underlying aspect of this that there's 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:54.920 actually kind of a laziness to the president in his 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.840 lack of salesmanship, lack of doing these things. One other thing, 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:02.080 because I think it's a fair question, so what would 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.480 a you know, I've been pretty doom and gloom. I 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:07.600 think it's gonna be pretty hard for Donald Trump to recover. 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:11.080 I think he's probably if you told me if I 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.760 went into a coma today and didn't wake up until 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.960 January twentieth, twenty twenty nine, and you said to me, 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.840 you know, Donald Trump's approval rating never got over forty 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:22.400 five percent for the rest of the term while you 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.960 were in a coma, wouldn't surprise me. And I've gone 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.120 through the reasonings before of why I did this. I think, 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:30.840 particularly in a second term, that's part of the you know, 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.160 that's part of the why there's probably a shorter lease 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:36.360 with the public, public like sort of oh, he's going 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:38.720 to be that all right, forget it right, And there 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:42.080 may be they may give up on him quicker, especially 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.320 since he's messing up on supposedly the issue that was 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:48.800 his core competency. But let me let me do the 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:52.440 other side. So let's say I wake up and from 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:58.560 my from my mythical coma, and it turns out he's popular. 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.800 What would have happened, Well, I think in this next 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.040 hundred days he must for that to happen, for him 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:07.480 to sort of write this ship, he needs some points 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:10.480 on the points on the board. Maybe he cuts in 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.800 a Ran deal. Maybe he gets both Russian and Ukraine 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.120 to agree to a cease fire. Maybe he's able to 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:21.760 get Israel and the Palestinians to at least cease violent interactions. 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:26.800 Perhaps he's able to get some trade deals with India, Australia, Japan, 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:30.800 the UK. I'm skeptical of all those things, but it's 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.560 not out of the question, right, It's not as if 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.680 those aren't active things he's engaged in at the moment. 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:39.720 But that's what the next Oh no, by the way, 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:43.880 how about putting some shovels in the ground for some 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.440 new factories. Right, there's a lot of pledges out there, 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:49.240 you know, he doesn't doesn't He doesn't even have a 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:51.520 fox con that he's been able to. Which was that 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.720 company that announced this big I remember Trump and Paul 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.800 Ryan together they announced this big investment into Wisconsin, this 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.480 company called Fox Cohn and and the investment never really happened. 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:05.000 But he needs some shovels in the ground somewhere, some 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.439 ribbon cuttings to do that. So you know what would 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.160 if day one on one to two hundred, If on 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:13.560 day two oh one his numbers are ten points better 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:17.439 than they are today. These are the things that need 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.520 to happen. Peace steel in Ukraine, pea steel in the 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:26.240 Middle East. Maybe he gets Saudi Arabia to formally go 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:32.559 public in their recognition of Israel. Trade, the individual trade 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:38.800 deals with a Japan, in India and Australia. Perhaps maybe 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:44.520 some some pullback on the tariffs in China, and positive 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:49.560 market reaction. Now again, all of those things are certainly 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.680 things he's trying to do, and I think all of 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:54.680 them are quite tough because here's the other problem that 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:56.480 he has, and I think I mentioned this during the 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.880 last one. He's I think he's given up a lot 0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:02.360 of leverage because guess what, everybody knows he needs a 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.880 deal and now the UK is teaming up with the EU. 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.320 So I guess not only has Donald Trump impacted the 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:12.599 politics of Canada. But did he just unbreaks it. I 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.640 guess we call it Brentrance at this point, with the 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:19.680 UK and the EU essentially doing their own trade deal 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:23.560 to start working together to deal with America, perhaps that 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.480 he can call that an international victory he brought. He's 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:31.440 helping reunite Europe economically. But these are the things that 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:33.800 I think he needs to get to happen, and I 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:35.280 think he's going to have a hard time doing it. 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:37.520 And he's going to have an even a harder time 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.760 doing it if he is going to go about this 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.960 presidency sort of working three and a half four days 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.719 a week and not traveling the country and not communicating 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.440 with all of America. Right now, he just rants to 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.320 his supporters. Makes him happy. Untruth social What he doesn't 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.760 fully appreciate is no one sees this stuff outside of 0:11:55.800 --> 0:12:00.760 his filter. Bubb guess what that forty of the countries 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.720 with him, there's another sixty percent that's not with him, 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.000 And he doesn't seem to be that interested in communicating 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.920 with that sixty percent anymore. Trump one point oh was 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.800 Trump one point oh traveled the country? Trump one point oh, 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:16.079 see seem to want to connect to the public. Perhaps 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:20.800 This is the best evidence we have yet that Trump 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.240 has no interest in a third term, because if he did, 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:27.240 he'd be behaving like somebody who wanted to run for reelection. 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:30.520 He's behaving like somebody who's worn out already at the 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.440 start of a second term. And look, he's not a 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.200 spring chicken. And it could very well be that the 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:40.760 job itself has become physically taxing. All right, So with that, 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:43.480 I want to pause here. We're going to sneak in 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.680 a quick break and when we come back. This is 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.600 a fascinating conversation with Jody Vittori, and again we talk 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.439 about a lot of countries and sort of the various 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.160 phases when is something a kleptocracy, when is in it? 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.520 And you know, can can you have sort of pieces 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:02.480 of a democracy become a kleptocracy, but the democracy itself 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:08.000 is still healthy enough to push back on authoritarianism. What 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:10.760 I like about doctor Vittorre is that she is this 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.560 is she is not an academic first, she is a 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:20.160 practitioner that is now in academia teaching her real life experiences. 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:30.800 So with that, enjoy the interview. So what is the 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.560 state of the American democracy? This is a question I 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:39.920 get frequently from friends, neighbors, viewers, listeners. Are we in 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:45.560 a constitutional crisis? How clear things are? And my answer 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.640 for the last six months is like, well, you know, 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:49.560 the thing that I'm nervous about is that, you know, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:53.640 stage one of an authoritarian regime is when a democracy 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:57.959 becomes a kleptocracy. And I had been kind of saying 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:00.680 it without a lot of academic rigor, and then I 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:04.600 read a terrific piece in Foreign Uh in Foreign Policy 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:09.440 by Georgetown professor doctor Jody Vittori, who is my guest today, 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:14.040 who wrote about this very issue, that making the case 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:18.360 that we are now in an early stage, early stages 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.600 of what if this were happening in any other country, 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.200 we would identify as hey, there, this appears to be 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:29.840 forming a kleptocracy. So doctor Vittori, it's appreciate you coming on. 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.200 Thanks for having me here today. I appreciate it. 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.480 So look, let's start with what we mean. You know, 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.800 you hear the word kliptocracy, and I'll be honest, it's like, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.360 is this some sort of superman word or does it 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:43.120 have to do with the Kremlin? Right, Like, there's a 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:47.880 lot of people kleptocracy. You know, define it and tell 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.160 me give me a couple of an examples around the 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:54.920 world that are that you might file under kleptocracy right now. 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:59.880 Sure, So, kleptocracy literally means rule by thieves, like kleptomania, 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.720 someone who can't stop, you know, stealing, ocracy at the 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.760 end like democracy, government by the people, theocracy government by religion. 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.400 So kleptocracy is just putting those two together. So government by. 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:15.320 Thieves and government by thieves. Let's take a step back. 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:20.040 That's pretty that's it. There you go. It's not a pirate. No, 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.720 it's not charming at all. There's no upside. There's never 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:24.840 a positive case for a kleptocracy, is there. 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.640 No, there is, There is not. Although people will come 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.440 up try to come up with some crazy reasons to 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.280 justify why they should be a kleptocracy, or what they're 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.640 really doing is reforming things, or that's how their culture 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.560 is set up or whatever, but at the end of 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.600 the day, they're very predatory on their citizens and often 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:43.240 very predatory on the world. So there's not one definition 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:45.840 of what kinds of things make rule by thieves or 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:50.200 what's thiefy enough, what's thievery enough to make it a kleptocracy. 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:52.440 But there's a couple of things that we look at 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.640 that when we're thinking about a place that is a kleptocracy. 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.880 One is that just the amount of money and stuff 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.320 that is being basically stolen by these thieves, and what 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:05.840 happens to the institutions of a government. And so we 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.120 have different terms that have like if you like ven diagrams, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.960 there's a lot of overlap. Sleptocracy, grand corruption, and state 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:16.200 capture often get used interchangeably. There's some slight differences between them. 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.160 Yeah, nationalizing an economy is that automatically a kleptocracy. 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.640 It doesn't have to be. And I will push back 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:24.520 on one of your first senates is just a little bit. 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:29.720 There are cases where you have incredibly authoritarian regimes, even 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:34.840 totalitarian regimes, that don't engage in large scale grand corruption. Okay, 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:40.720 so there's still hideous lot in Cambodia, lots of petty corruption, 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:45.520 you know, people paying bribes to just survive. But Poulpot 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.120 was not buying mansions in the south of France or 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:52.800 anything during this or NII in Tanzania. You know, the 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:56.680 entire population was impoverished under his regime, but you know 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:59.560 he wasn't buying fancy mansion somewhere in the States or 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.200 something like that. So they are rare. But you can't 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:06.440 have authoritarian and even fatality and regimes that are not leptocracies. Okay, 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:11.159 but most pleptocracies will be at least competitive authoritarianism have 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:15.119 significant backsliding if they've been democracies ever, because you can't 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:20.000 have rule by thieves in a functioning government democracy and 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:22.480 have people not protesting and voting the bumps out and 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.120 so forth. So you need to make sure you stay 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:27.480 and power run your cryptocracy. So they'll at least be 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.199 very shaky on the democracy side all the way up 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.800 to full fledge totalitarian dictatorships like Kim Jong un or 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:35.399 you know, North Korea or something like that. 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:38.639 So we would look at a So what you're describing 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.600 to me, the immediate country that jumps out as Putin 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:45.240 in Russia, because here's a guy who does have big mansions, 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:47.280 Here's a people with a bunch of oligarchs who've made 0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:50.400 money off the state. It seems that this is how 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:54.600 he kind of controls the wealthy diaspora is through some 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:58.560 sort of investments. I mean, is that the clearest example 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:03.080 we have probably the world right now in a semi 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:03.760 large country. 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.320 Well, hiptocracies can come in a lot of different forms, 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:08.600 so you asked me a couple of different types, and 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:10.359 they work different ways. The one we most think of 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:14.000 is probably Russia, and it's you know, think of their oligarchs. 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.679 They're not quite oligarchs nowadays, but the types of oligarchs 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:22.000 is very very tiny inner grouping that controls the Russian 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:25.200 economy can decide to send it to war in devastating ways, 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:29.480 and you know, devastate their next door neighbor in Ukraine. 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:32.040 The lack of democracy in there. They have kind of 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:35.720 fake votes, but it's not obviously it's not a functioning 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.679 real democracy, but just the huge amount of money what 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.000 we call assets shripping and so forth that occurs there. 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:46.159 That's one kind. You have other kleptocracies, like in Afghanistan 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.560 under the Talla Bond Part one and the United States 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.360 where it's just a free for all. In Russia's case, 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:53.800 you know exactly who's the We have. 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.440 The warlords, right, each warlord had their own it's sort 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.520 of they kind of wanted to control their economic weather 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:00.320 in Afghanistan. 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.439 So Sudan right now, would be a great example of that, 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.640 just total chaos sort ofcery. And then you have sort 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.600 of the more refined sort of tech kleptocracies. Think of 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:14.600 Hungary or the UAE. That can be nice places to 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:16.960 go visit. They seem to have some level of rule 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:18.359 of law. When you're there, you're not getting you know, 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.040 this is not Afghanistan or Sudan, clearly, you know, there's 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.879 kind of shiny, the nice downtown areas and so forth, 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:29.320 and they're a much more subtle sort of form of kleptocracy. 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:34.520 You know, Hungary is is the classic example. Orbond calls 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:38.240 his country an illiberal democracy. That's his goal, of course, 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:40.960 is an oxymoron liberal with a small obviously not a 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.680 big l. It's an oxymoron. You can't be democratic and 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.320 and not be liberal with the rule of law and 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:50.280 in the rule of law institute. But he has made 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.240 it so that his cronies control the media. He makes 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.320 sure his friends get contracts. These are very expensive contracts, 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.600 and so forth. The United States, if it does slip 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.680 into club totocracy, will be unique because we've never had 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:08.200 a situation where a consolidated democracy with strong governing institutions 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.560 has gone to a full fledged cleptocracy before. It was 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:16.600 always theoretically possible, but it hasn't happened. There's been grand 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:18.480 corruption scandals in places, right. 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:21.080 I mean, look, I look at Teapot Dome was probably 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:26.159 the closest we came to looking like a kleptocracy. That 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:29.280 the taft essentially filled his cabinet with a bunch of 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:31.840 guys that were just trying to make money off the taxpayers. 0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:35.040 But the United States wouldn't be considered a consolidated democracy 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:37.080 at that point. We don't really truly become a fully 0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:39.920 fledged consolidated democracy until after the passing the Civil Rights 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.320 Acted in the nineteen six So again, that's not going 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:49.760 to qualify plus plus is the country in the international system. 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.440 It's it's the reserve currency, it's the largest military. 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:55.600 Set the rules essentially the rules. 0:20:56.080 --> 0:21:00.000 What happens when the state power in the global system 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:03.000 them if it becomes a kleptocracy. We don't have a 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:04.400 historic model for them. 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:09.680 So I started using the word sort of in this, 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:13.639 you know, and I was trying to I have the 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.520 episodes to prove it. I'm trying to explain why Donald 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:21.760 Trump was so obsessed with tariffs, and yes, he cared 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:25.919 about these trade deficits, and I think misunderstood them, but 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:29.720 we can. I'm going to set that aside the real 0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:33.680 benefit that he enjoyed in the first term with tariffs, 0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:36.520 that he learned about. And this is how I always 0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:39.879 say Trump is very much as a rote learner, and 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:44.680 he you know, you can't fool them twice. And so 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:50.800 what the tariffs allow him to do is encourage people 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:53.560 to have to come to him for exemptions, and that 0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:59.080 the exemption process is what how we can end up 0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:04.680 in a kleptocracy where he has full control of different 0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:08.439 aspects of the economy because he can decide winners and losers. 0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:10.640 He can decide you get a tariff, you don't get 0:22:10.680 --> 0:22:14.320 a tariff, you get this, you don't get this, and 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.800 that this is what was so dangerous about his tariff policy, 0:22:17.840 --> 0:22:20.760 because it wasn't about the tariffs themselves. It was about 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:24.399 that he was going to have singular control of the economy. 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:29.040 But what you just described, I'm actually questioning whether that's 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:31.720 you know that maybe we don't we have enough checks 0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:37.480 and balances that that he can create an administration that's 0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:42.439 a leptocracy, but he can't really change the system into 0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:48.399