WEBVTT - Harvesting 'Crisis Alpha’ 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:15.360 Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up a Bloomberg Weekening 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:19.520 Markets podcast. I'm Sara Plante, reporter on the Cross Asset team, 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:23.160 and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor on the Markets team. 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:25.640 This week on the show, there's no denying it. We're 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:28.800 in a healthcare crisis, as disheartening as it may be, 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:31.280 and you could also say that we're in an economic 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.800 and a market crisis. Well, our guests actually coined the 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:38.239 term crisis alpha, and the strategy she runs is up 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:42.120 seven percent this year. She'll explain what crisis alpha actually 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:44.839 is and how to capture it in times like these, 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:48.000 and as always, we will close out the episode with 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:52.680 our tradition the craziest thing I saw in markets this week? Uh, 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:55.240 And please do if you see something crazy and markets, 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.560 give us a call on the podcast hotline at six 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:03.920 four six four three four nine oh or tweet to 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.160 us at Podcasts and let us know the craziest thing 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:09.920 you saw and maybe we'll play your voicemail or mention 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:13.840 your tweet on the air. Well, let's introduce a new 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:16.760 voice here, first time on the show. Very excited to 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:20.080 have her. As sorry, as you pointed out, she is 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:24.800 an expert in trend following UH using managed futures, in fact, 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:26.800 wrote the book on it, or at least co wrote 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:30.520 the book Trend Following with Managed Futures, The Search for 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:35.160 Crisis Alpha. She is the chief research strategist at Alpha 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:38.880 Simplex Group. UH, teaches at m I T in her 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:42.640 spare time, and very excited to get her take on 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:46.240 these markets. Her name is Katie Kaminsky. Katie, Welcome to 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:50.600 the show. Hi, nice to be here today. I wanted 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:54.920 to ask about sort of how the trend following, especially UH. 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.680 I believe it's the Alpha Simplex Managed Future strategy that 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.520 Sarah was referring to. It's up like about seven or 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:04.720 eight percent this year. UM. I was reading a note 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:08.200 you wrote about sort of the process of trend following 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:12.800 during this bear market in stocks that we've seen this year, 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.920 and I guess you wrote a little bit about how 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.960 the signals, the cross assets signals from say the bond 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:23.680 market and the and the commodities market copper and oil especially, UM, 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:28.000 we're sort of signaling a risk off environment a lot 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.040 earlier than stocks, at least before stocks peaked towards the 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.680 end of February there. But I'm just curious how it 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:35.640 all sort of fits together, if you could kind of 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.799 dissect for us the returns and that fund how it's 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.520 able to do so well in this type of environment. 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:46.440 So the concept of crisis alpha opportunities are opportunities game 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:51.360 during periods of market stress or crisis. Um Strategies like 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:57.960 trend following are specifically designed to constantly measure where markets 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.840 are going and how things are changing across a wide 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:04.600 range of methodologies. And what we find is that we 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:08.200 move as the markets move, So as markets move in 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:13.400 different directions, we're constantly adjusting and following where markets go. 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:16.320 And so in the moments when there's a lot of 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.679 uncertainty or there's a lot of stress in the markets, 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.239 it turns out that people tend to be much more 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:27.080 polarized in their actions, for both either behavioral reasons or 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.480 for the fact that they may be driven into action 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:36.080 based on risk management and other typical institutional protocols. So 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.480 the key thing that we are following, and what's different 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.760 about us is that we're much more technical in nature, 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.520 and that we're actually looking at where the market's going 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.400 as opposed to why it's going somewhere, And that means 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:53.600 that we're listening to the markets and seeing where they 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.560 are pointing. So if I think about what happened earlier 0:03:57.640 --> 0:04:01.520 this year, especially January, what was very ominous to me 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:06.119 and was giving a little pause was just how are 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.840 trend fling signals and how trend fling in general started 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:14.320 to see a growing apprehension, not in the equity markets, 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.800 but more so in the other periphery markets, which were 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.359 starting to price in some of the uncertainty and some 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:26.599 of the potential UH impacts of a potential pandemic. So, 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.200 speaking of this apprehension, Katie, the last time I saw 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.920 you was early March. It seems like a lifetime ago 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:35.839 because we were actually face to face in person. Doesn't 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.400 happen anymore. I believe it was on on March six. Then. 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:42.520 At the time, the SMP had fallen twelve percent, and 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:44.800 little did anyone know that from that point we still 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:48.839 had roughly or more to go. We would also all 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:52.960 be entering stay at home orders. Businesses would be shutting. 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.920 And at the time you expressed that apprehension, and around 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.280 the same period you also authored a report and within 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:02.200 it you said the market smells as skunk, precisely for 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:07.080 those reasons that other asset classes were signaling caution and 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.120 and it makes me think, I mean, if the market 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:12.120 quote unquote smelled the skunk, then well then what does 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.400 it smell now, because I mean, you look at oil 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.839 prices this past week, which dropped below twenty a barrel 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:19.840 for w t I again, and at the same time, 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:23.080 we haven't really seen bond prices react all that much. 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.560 But meanwhile, we've just seen equity markets turn around to 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:30.880 the upside pretty forcefully, exactly. And what's interesting for us 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:35.400 is that we saw tremendous trends in the cross asset space. 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:41.799 So there were tremendous opportunities in fixed income UM, short energies, 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:47.520 short industrial metals, long precious metals. UH. The currency market 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:49.320 has been a little bit more of it back and 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.880 forth in all of this situation, but in general, the 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:56.719 trends that we were seeing were relatively strong, much stronger 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.280 than the typical amount of trend that you would see 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:02.360 UM in a time where people are not concerned. And 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:05.599 this is why these strategies actually do very well in 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.839 these environments is that during periods of fear or distress, 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.320 people are much more coordinated and how they behave and 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:15.960 prices as a result, can also move in a much 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:20.440 more coordinated way, which means that a particular strategy that's 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.919 actually measuring and monitoring these trends can actually capture them. 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:28.920 So I often think about our positioning as an aggregate 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.960 estimate or view of what the market thinks, where the 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.680 market's going. So if I take a look back in 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.919 January at the beginning of this what was concerning to 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.480 me is I saw a lot of strength in terms 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:46.960 of a lot of bullish signals for fixed income, you know, 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:50.839 kind of in some sense hesitation about the equity markets. 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:53.640 I also saw a lot of strength in terms of 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:58.000 short positions in things like energies, and as you know, 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.920 oftentimes energies fall with equities but don't recover as much 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:05.120 um And so we saw all of these type of 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.599 signs and strengthening, especially in flight to safety trades in 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:12.080 terms of the cross assets that we monitor, which was 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:15.440 indicative that half of the things we were looking at 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:18.840 we're looking a little ominous. And the equity markets were 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:22.520 yet to fall Asian markets were a little bit weaker. 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.960 But as we saw markets fall out in February into March, 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.920 then the theme became coordinated and it was very much 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:35.320 a a theme of crisis. And since that point we 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:41.000 saw that continue throughout March. Um our signals have gone 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:45.520 from being very cautiously optimistic about equities to cautiously pessimistic. 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:50.480 Um not in size, but definitely right now the way 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:54.200 we're thinking about things, because you asked about positioning, UM, 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.760 if I take a look at how trends signals are 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:01.120 looking right now, there's definitely a very cautious view on equities, 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.160 cautious and slightly negative. Yeah. I'm sure everyone right now 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:09.520 is having to make very difficult decisions. And when you 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:13.720 say that the stands currently, at least regarding equities is 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:17.720 cautiously pessimistic, can you maybe walk us through the evolution 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.920 of the strategy maybe from the end of January to 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.160 the point at which we get to this point now 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:27.280 where we've had a nice rebound off of the lows 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:31.200 and the strategy is pessimistic. I know it changes quite often, 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:33.640 but can you maybe give us a sense of how 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:37.080 the strategy did change throughout time as markets were moving 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.440 up until this point. Yeah, I will run through how 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.040 the strategy had moved, But then at the end I'll 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:47.240 maybe give some um overall view in terms of what 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:50.320 could be driving this UM. So we'll start with at 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:53.720 the beginning of the year. UM. It was quite interesting 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.600 because after a year that was so phenomenally good for 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:01.160 the equity markets last year, things were looking good. Bond 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:05.400 markets had been more range bound and reverted somewhat in December, 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:09.400 so it was really looking like a very pro equity 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:13.040 market environment. UM. I know, growth estimates were a little 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:16.720 bit more muted than the priory prior year, but in general, 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:19.839 the risk on theme had grown a lot, and we've 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:22.920 seen that in em currencies, we've seen that in equities. 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:26.480 But then later in the month and around mid month 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.360 in January, as people started to notice some of the 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:35.000 things that we're going on in Asia, we noticed that 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:39.760 our potential signals in fixed income started actually to tick up, 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:44.480 our short view on energy started to grow. And then 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:47.480 as we had sort of an initial hiccup at the 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:51.480 end of January, we started to pick up some potential 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:55.560 concern um, not in US equity markets, but in some 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.920 of the cross asset markets. And what was interesting is 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.439 that you start to get to a position which looked 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:07.080 very hedged, so it was long equities, long fixed income, 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.760 short energy. Now, if you think about that, that's really 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.280 a hedged position. It's almost like a no position in 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.880 the sense that you're kind of if equities go down, 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.320 you have things that might go up UM in terms 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:24.000 of your positioning. So that continued in through the month 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:29.320 of February. So February nineteen was the peak before the 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:33.040 great fall. And what's been interesting about that is that 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.800 all of the other signals that we were seeing and 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:39.920 other asset classes just extended during these periods of time. 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:43.640 So the short energy trade grew strength. We also saw 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:48.200 a fixed income positively responding to that. So for us, 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:51.920 it was really about UM, a somewhat hedged position. So 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.360 Trent following an average was roughly flat for the month 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:59.480 of February, which I think is relatively spectacular given the 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:03.680 type of moves that we saw. Then in March, as 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:07.800 we were seeing this move continue, we we're getting out 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:12.400 of equity markets and trend failing signals were reducing exposure 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:16.760 to equities down to an almost neutral to very low position, 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:22.959 and we saw continued gains in fixed income and as 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:27.200 well as commodity markets. Okayny I love if you could 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:30.440 sort of explain for us some of the signals that 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:34.640 define a trend uh in your strategies. Um, you know, 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.520 is it as simple as something like a moving average? Uh? 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.320 You know, I imagine there's a lot of complex math involved. 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.480 But what are some of the sort of cornerstones of 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:49.559 identifying a trend that the strategy uses. So the key 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:53.959 approach to trend falling is about taking many different technical 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:58.559 methodologies and using those to create some sort of score 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.880 or vote in terms of the direction of an individual market. 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:08.320 So this requires you to parameterize how much data you're 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:11.559 going to use and what methodology you're going to use 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.640 in terms of measuring the strength of that particular trend. 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:17.880 What we tend to do, and what many in the 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.920 space tend to do, is we use a wide range 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:26.360 of different methodologies, some using more technical simple terms like 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:30.800 moving averages and breakout signals, and others too as complicated 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:34.920 as drawing from the machine learning literature and trying to 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:39.200 do things a little bit more nonlinearly. So overall, I 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.760 tend to explain a trend filling system is really similar 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.880 to a voting system. You have many different models with 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.400 different time horizons in terms of how much data they're using, 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.400 and they all come together an aggregate to vote on 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.080 where the market is going. So if you think about 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.760 what we're really trying to do, we're taking in all 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.000 this data from the markets would as you know, if 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:02.720 you look at a week, and you look at a month, 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:04.800 and you look at a year, they can look very different. 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:09.040 Try to use mathematical techniques to measure those and then 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:13.839 aggregate them together. Let those approaches vote to create an 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:18.240 overall signal. What this means is that in aggregate we 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.920 are trying to measure all the information and bring it 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.960 together to give ourselves an overall view of where the 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.720 market's going. Because trend falling is really just momentum trading 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:33.480 across different assets. You're following where things are moving, and 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:53.080 you're adjusting as the world changes. Whenever there is a 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:57.040 heightened state of volatility in the market, UM, there's this 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:02.400 tendency for analysts or or market pundits who can't really 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.080 explain what's going on, to sort of point the finger 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:08.920 at the machines running quant strategies. Uh. You know, if 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:13.320 if not trend following, then uh, volatility targeting and UM 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:15.960 even risk parity that sort of thing, And you know 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.080 that it's kind of an easy scapegoat. I guess for 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:22.160 for some people to say, you know, this market doesn't 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.800 make any sense to anyone but a machine running the 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.680 strategy and the application. A lot of times is that 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:32.680 UM uh quant strategies tend to do the same type 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.560 of thing you're talking about, UH, all sort of reacting 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.720 maybe racking to different signals, but the end result being 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.560 to sell or buy all at the same time and 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:46.760 possibly exaggerate the moves in the market. UM. Does do 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:52.200 you think that really happens in general? Uh? And specifically? 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.080 And and say the volatility we've seen the last couple 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:57.760 of months, UM or is it just impossible to know 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:02.240 and sort of impossible to dice sacked what is causing 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.880 massive swings like that? I always see and and I 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.680 think it's an easy narrative to say that, because it's 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:12.080 easier to blame a machine than a person. UM. But 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.080 one other thing is is that I always go back 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:21.280 to the basic tenants of volatility. Volatility represents uncertainty. When 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.200 things go up and down a lot, it's because people, 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:29.000 whether or not it's algorithm or a person, I don't 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.760 know what's going on, and they're unsure about where the 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:36.480 markets are going, and I would say that across the 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.840 quant space it's actually been very mixed. Trend Falling strategies 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.160 are one of the only strategies that have really tend 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.000 to do very well in this environment. It actually turns 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.320 out that a lot of the other quant strategies have 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.920 struggled UM. The reason being is that they may have 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:58.240 very specific hedges or offsets and in strategies that when 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:02.200 things get volatile, things get complicated for them. UM. And 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.240 so I would say that I tend to think about 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:08.640 volatility is really our perception or it's a measurement of 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.560 our view of uncertainty. So the environment that we just 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.920 went into, and you can probably you probably agree with 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:19.640 me yourself, is that the idea of a pandemic, the 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.600 idea of staying at home, the idea of a lockdown 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.560 UM is something so uncertain that it is not at 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.600 all surprising to me that markets would be up and 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.880 down every other day. Because volatility is a measure of 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:39.640 uncertainty things going around UM A lot is much more 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:44.760 about how we feel about what things, what things are worth. UM. 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:49.400 Now could UH systematic managers or quad managers when people 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.240 do the same thing move these things more, it's possible. 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:56.360 I'd have to do a much more extensive research and 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.360 really get into the data. I know that even when 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.800 we looked at the flash crash, I know the CFTC 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.600 did some extensive analysis of that and found actually that 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.600 it was a fundamental trade that was just too large 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:13.040 that created a dislocation. So I think I think that's 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.159 a great question. It's definitely a good narrative. People like 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:20.200 it blame the machine, um, But for me, it's really 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:25.240 this volatility isn't someone's fault. It's more that we don't know. 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:31.520 It's really representative of how unsure the markets are about 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:35.800 what's going on. No, there's no doubt that headlines news 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:39.640 flow has been on hyper drive. It scenes and Mike, 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.840 you know that that has given us plenty of opportunities 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:46.479 at least to uh think of crazy things for our 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:51.840 crazy things and markets for sure, So what did what's 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:54.920 your best? What has been shocking to me has been 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.720 the contango in oil that we have seen the fact 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:03.840 that may oil pray says we're nineteen and September thirty something, 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:07.720 and I saw a report from Bloomberg today that people, um, 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:10.280 so going back to what we saw bonds in the 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:13.640 summer where people are willing to pay to own German debt. 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:15.919 Now we have a situation where you get paid to 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:20.560 sell gasoline, So maybe that's the next thing. We all 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.920 go around and find gasoline and sell it, because, um, 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:26.800 that's a weird world that you could get paid to 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:31.560 actually sell gasoline. There must be just oil tigers crowded 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:33.640 off the shores right now full of oil. It's it's 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.439 an amazing Uh, that is an amazing situation. Apparently they 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.400 said it was twelve cents a gallon in in North 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.919 Dakota for oil. Well that's a good one, Katie, and 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:49.240 you get you get props for sticking close to the markets, Sara, 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:53.119 can you top Katie's oil can tango? So I brought 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.560 to one that's markets related and one that's less so so, 0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:01.600 but I'll start with the market related one and that's that. 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:06.600 Now the five largest companies make up which is a 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.600 new record. And I think it's just been pretty amazing 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:11.960 that we continue to see a lot of these mega 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:16.240 cap technology and internet companies just continue to perform so 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.480 well in this type of environment. I think like a 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.160 couple of years ago, people would have said that when 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.280 the bull market came to an end. The companies that 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:26.560 let on the way up, we're going to lead on 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:29.600 the way down and that and that certainly hasn't happened. Um. 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:31.080 So I think the fact that we have a new 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.280 record related to top heaviness in the market is pretty crazy. 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:39.480 For one, Yeah, absolutely absolutely, and then uh, the less 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:41.960 markets related one really not related to the markets at all. 0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:45.320 There was just a great story in the New York Times. 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:50.000 It was a bit uh, someone would say humorous. Um, 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:52.719 but the headline reads Trump wanted a radio show, but 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.520 he didn't want to compete with them, and it's it's 0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:58.080 a great read if you have some downtime. Essentially, it's 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.040 just details President Trump going to one of the Coronavirus 0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:03.280 Task Force meetings and laying out this plan that he 0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:06.879 wanted to have a two hour radio show each day. Um. 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:08.560 And the only reason he didn't want to do it 0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:11.680 is because he didn't want to knock Rush Limbaugh's ratings. Um. 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:15.080 It's it's an interesting rate. Uh, it's just a bit 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.239 humorous in these In these times, he has a two 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:19.400 hour TV show every night at the at the press 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:21.960 count right now, he has a TV show instead with 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:26.680 with great ratings so crazy times. I'm not sure how 0:20:26.720 --> 0:20:29.080 two hours on the radio helps him fight the virus, 0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:32.840 but he does like to talk, so UM, I have 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:36.000 no no doubt he could fill two hours or radio 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:38.520 time a day. All right, these are all pretty good. 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:42.800 I will I'll give you mine, um mine. As you know, 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.400 I like to push the boundaries of what is considered 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:49.160 a market story. Uh, but this is certainly crazy now. 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.080 One of the most depressing things about this virus, uh 0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:57.040 for the average person who hasn't really had to deal 0:20:57.080 --> 0:21:00.640 with with a sick or dying relative, but the lack 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:05.160 of sports on TV uh throughout this has been traumatic 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:09.400 for a lot of people, um, especially gamblers. And here's 0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:12.040 where we get into the markets. Now that online gambling 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:15.680 is legal in some states, I I think it's okay 0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:18.520 to consider that an official market, at least for the 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.399 purposes of this crea before. Yeah, at least for the 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:26.480 purposes of this this crazy observation. So the first major 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:29.760 league sport to get back in business, do you know 0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:33.439 what it is? Well, not counting world wide wrestling. Uh, 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:35.680 that's what I was gonna say. W w Okay, I 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:38.480 guess that might be there might be a tie between that, 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:41.439 but you can't. You can't gamble on that. I mean, 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:43.000 I guess you could. But if you're gonna gamble on 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:49.120 professional professional wrestling, then you've got goods of major problems. 0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:53.480 But I believe if you have inside information, right, yeah, 0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.840 but those are all plans anyways, right, they're all chograph's 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.200 bet on the good guy. I guess um. They're is 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:04.360 a league called the Major League Eating League, and it's 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:06.440 these guys you know, like at the hot dog eating 0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:09.600 contests on Conan Island. It's all those guys. Uh. It's 0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:12.919 been officially turned into a league called Major League Eating 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.159 and they believe they are the first professional sport to 0:22:16.240 --> 0:22:21.800 get back in business. They're having eating tournament. Everyone's gonna 0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:25.679 be at their home zooming in or or skyping in. 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.199 I guess uh. And you'll be able to gamble on it. 0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:30.840 They've already set some of the over unders and stuff 0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:34.800 like that on it. Let me just tell you what 0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:37.400 you have to do to to participate in this tournament. 0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:41.320 So the qualifying round will consist of two pounds of 0:22:41.359 --> 0:22:45.040 slice bologney. So you have the two pounds of slice bologney, 0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:48.119 and it's a race. So who can eat that two 0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.560 pounds of blowney. The fastest I've read somewhere the overunder 0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:56.800 was like sixty nine seconds three to eat two pounds 0:22:56.800 --> 0:23:00.320 of blaney. So um, So, Mike, you're not you're not 0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:03.960 going to try to take part of Maybe if it 0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:09.159 was I don't know about bolony the quarter finals hot dogs, 0:23:09.200 --> 0:23:11.439 I could I don't know, I could kind of see that. 0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:15.240 If it was chicken wings, maybe I I could get 0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:17.960 into that. I'm from Philly, where the the big competition 0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.439 is the chicken chicken wing eating competitions. But so then 0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:24.560 from the quarterfinals, uh, you'll have to eat a family 0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:27.879 sized pack of oreos and a half a gallon of milk. 0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:31.520 That doesn't seem that tough actually, but here's where, yeah, 0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:36.800 here's where they really will separate the pros from the amateurs. Though. Uh. 0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:39.400 To make it to the finals, you'll have to eat 0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:45.399 over a gallon of baked beans. Oh and if you 0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:50.919 win that, the the finals consists of ten individual cups 0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:53.680 of ramen noodles. Um. But I think that gun. I 0:23:53.680 --> 0:23:56.320 wonder who comes up with this stuff beans and ramen? 0:23:56.359 --> 0:23:58.360 What are they assuming more people have these things at 0:23:58.359 --> 0:24:03.080 their home. I wonder if that's it. Yeah. Yeah, Oreos 0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:05.520 the gaunt of baked beans, I think is the deal 0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:08.600 breaker there. I don't, I don't know, I I I 0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:12.600 pity the person who gets that far. It's a hard one. 0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:15.400 I must say. I haven't been dragged into eating a 0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.800 food watching it. But I've been watching um the horse 0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.560 tournaments for the NBA and the w n b A 0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:26.040 and also i've been watching some NBA players playing two 0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:31.240 K on Xbox, which has been a pretty entertaining and 0:24:31.320 --> 0:24:35.000 this time. Yeah, yeah, that's that's not bad. Let's say, Hey, 0:24:35.000 --> 0:24:38.760 it beats beats watching a rerun of a game. Anyway, Katie, 0:24:38.800 --> 0:24:40.320 maybe you could get your pals and m I t 0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:44.560 you could have like a New England clam chowder eating competition. 0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:50.280