1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I want to add 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: the voice of Evo Dalder. I was delighted to hear 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: that the former ambassador to NATO was joining us today. 4 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: This brings us back to the Obama administration now senior 5 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,240 Speaker 1: fellow at the Harvard Belfer Center. Mister ambassador, welcome back 6 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. 7 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 2: TV and Radio. 8 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,479 Speaker 1: I'm deeply curious to hear your thoughts today as the 9 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: President drops this additional ten days on the ultimatum. 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: Do you think this is an opportunity. 11 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: To let talks breathe or to actually prompt them to begin. 12 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 3: Yes, and yes, also putting more escalation options into the hopper. 13 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 3: The problem here seems to be that the President is 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 3: kind of losing the thread about what it is that 15 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 3: we're trying to achieve here. Why did we go to 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 3: war in the first place. All the focus is now 17 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: on opening up the strait of Hermose. Of course, the 18 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 3: strait of her Moose was open on February twenty eighth 19 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: one the bombing started. It was a consequence of the bombing. 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 3: It was a foreseeable consequence of the bombing, But somehow 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: the President and his advisors didn't do the planning and 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 3: didn't take into account the need to ensure that the 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: Strait was going to be open. So we're in a 24 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 3: new ballgame, and we're trying to figure out a way. 25 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: The President is trying to figure out a way to 26 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: get out of it, and it is through some negotiated solution, 27 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 3: because other than occupying Iran and taking over the government 28 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:36,199 Speaker 3: and having a government that is more conducive to American persuasion, it's. 29 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 4: Got to be a deal. 30 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 3: Some deal has to be struck in which Iran agrees 31 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: to no longer threaten shipping through the Strait. 32 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 4: And right now. 33 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: The table seemed to be turned to some extent where 34 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 3: Iran holds, to use the President's favorite phrase, the cards, 35 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 3: Iran is the one that is keeping the straight closed. 36 00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: It is opening it up for those who are willing 37 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 3: to pay it sufficient amount of money or its friends, 38 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 3: but it's keeping the straight clothes to those it doesn't like. 39 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 3: And the President is running out of options to figure 40 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: out how to do this militarily. 41 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 4: Threatening in my view, in order. 42 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 3: To see if we can get a deal that at 43 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 3: least achieves some of the objectives that were set when 44 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: we started the bombing campaign. 45 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 4: Back four weeks ago. Now, yeah, but. 46 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: This isn't a surprise, though, right, Ambassador. 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,839 Speaker 1: Isn't this In every model that the Pentagon has ever 48 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 1: had about a potential conflict with a run, the first 49 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: thing they would do is close the straight Everyone in 50 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: the energy market knew this, right. 51 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not a surprise. 52 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: But apparently it was a surprise for the President of 53 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 3: the United States, who decided to engage in his second 54 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 3: bombing campaign. Remember, he already did so in June of 55 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five when he said he obliterated the nuclear program. 56 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 3: He did so without paying attention. He was warned about this. 57 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 3: I think it's reporting in the New York Times, the 58 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 3: chairman of a Joint chiefs of Staff, Dan Kane, who 59 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 3: said that this is a possible and he said, oh, 60 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 3: I'm not worried about that. Our military, your military, we're 61 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 3: so good. We can take care of it. What we 62 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: see here is a president and this happens to other presidents. 63 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 4: It happens. 64 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 3: It happened to George W. Bush after Afghanistan. It's happened 65 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 3: before they become enamored with the military tool. Our military 66 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 3: is extraordinary. It's the best military in the world. That 67 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 3: can do things that no other military can do, but 68 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 3: it can't do everything through military force. And we know 69 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 3: that from Afghanistan, we know that from Vietnam, we know 70 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 3: it from Iraq. 71 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 4: But somehow, because Venezuela. 72 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 3: The bombing campaign against Iran and June went so well, 73 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: the President assumed that we could just change the regime 74 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 3: with a bit of bombing and things would be fine. 75 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 3: Well turned out that, as a military strategist like to say, 76 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: the enemy has a vote, and in this case, the 77 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 3: vote was to close the straight or mose and they 78 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 3: didn't prepare for it. 79 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: He has a vote in Iran is not Venezuela. Ambassador. 80 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: I want to ask you about NATO. It's potential involvement 81 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: or lack thereof. This is something that President's certainly been 82 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: talking about a lot, as recently as yesterday in the 83 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: cabinet meeting. 84 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: Listen to what Donald Trump said one thing. 85 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 5: We're very disappointed, I'll say it publicly, We're very disappointed 86 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 5: with NATO because NATO has done absolutely nothing. And I've 87 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 5: always said twenty five years ago, I mean I was 88 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 5: somebody that wasn't a politician, but I was always involved 89 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 5: in politics, and I understand politics. I said twenty five 90 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 5: years ago that NATO's a paper tiger, but more importantly 91 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 5: that will come to their rescue, but they will never 92 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 5: come to ours. 93 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: President has called NATO a paper tiger. There he is 94 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: called NATO cowards for not joining him in the strait. 95 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: NATO is talking as well, though. We just heard from 96 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: the Chancellor of Germany. 97 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:50,799 Speaker 2: Again. 98 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: Chancellor May is saying the US and Israel have no 99 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: strategy in the war on Iran and says German contribution 100 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: in resolving the crisis is an option. Interestingly, here, as 101 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio urges maximum partner contributions from G seven nations 102 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,239 Speaker 1: over Iran, distill this forest ambassador to the point where 103 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: the Chancellor is compelled to speak like this publicly. 104 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: What is the. 105 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: Conversation between the White House and our NATO allies right now? 106 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 3: Well, I'm not sure there's much of a conversation other 107 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 3: than perhaps Marco Rubio talking to his G seven counterparts 108 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 3: in Paris. I mean, let me make two points. Number one, 109 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 3: twenty five years ago to the United States was attacked 110 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 3: by Al Qaeda, and for the first and only time, 111 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,679 Speaker 3: NATO at the behest of not of the United States, 112 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 3: but of its allies invoked Article five, which is the 113 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 3: Collective Defense provision of the North Atlantic Treaty, saying that 114 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 3: an armed attack against one shall be regarded as an 115 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 3: armed attack against all. Not only did they invoke Article five, 116 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: they deployed massive amounts tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan. 117 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 3: Our allies lost well over one thousand troops in a war. 118 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 3: So for the President of the United States to say 119 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 3: today that NATO doesn't do anything for the United States, 120 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 3: that NATO is never there for us, when in fact, 121 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: the twenty five years he invokes was the time frame 122 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 3: in which NATO did that is frankly obscene, and it 123 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 3: is regarded by Europeans as obscene because they lost troops 124 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 3: to defend the United States and the United States security interest, 125 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: not because they thought it was important for their security, 126 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: but they thought it was important for America security. And 127 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 3: that's what allies do. Number two, NATO is a defensive alliance. 128 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 3: It responds to an armed attack on it. There is 129 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: no armed attack on NATO. The only attack that occurred 130 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 3: was an Israeli US attack on Iran, which many, in fact, 131 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:49,480 Speaker 3: I would say most Europeans regard as illegal under international law. 132 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: Unnecessary given that the diplomacy was still a possibility, and 133 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 3: reckless in ignoring. 134 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 4: The outcome that could have happened. 135 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 3: And I think Chancellor Meritz is expressing that so undernose circumstances. 136 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 3: To say that this was quote a test for NATO 137 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 3: or second that NATO is a paper tiger is never 138 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 3: willing to do anything, is frankly beside the point that 139 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 3: it's not going to work and it's not going to 140 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: lead NATO countries to deploy the forces. Now, if hostilities 141 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 3: had ended, there probably is going to be a European 142 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: contribution to helping to keep the strait open or even 143 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 3: to open it. After all, NATO European countries have capabilities 144 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 3: the United States no longer has, like minesweepers. And finally, 145 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 3: just to point out, NATO basis in Germany in other 146 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 3: countries are being used every single day to facilitate the 147 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 3: ability of the United States to conduct this work Without NATO, 148 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 3: Without Europe, the United States couldn't be doing what it's 149 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 3: doing today. 150 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: Well, what would happen if every NATO nation with the 151 00:07:57,360 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: ship showed up when the President initially asked them to 152 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: advance of the strikes? Would that have made the difference. 153 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: The President says, you need volume, you need scale to 154 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: reopen the Strait. If we showed up with all of 155 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: our NATO allies, would the straight be open? 156 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 3: Ambassador, Well, if we hadn't bombed, the Strait would be open. 157 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: And I think that's the fundamental point the Strait was. 158 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 3: It was closed because of the bombing. I think if 159 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 3: there had been consultations with the European nations, as indeed 160 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 3: there was prior to the Iraq War, deep consultations, although 161 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 3: Europe was divided, NATO was divided, that we might have 162 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 3: come up with the strategy to say, how do we 163 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 3: put maximum pressure on Iran to achieve what we want 164 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 3: to achieve, which is a neuron that does not have 165 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 3: nuclear weapons, which, by the way, it doesn't and it 166 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 3: hasn't had nuclear weapons in part because of negotiations, in 167 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 3: part because of sanctions, in part because of pressure, but 168 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 3: certainly because of diplomacy, that it reduces its ballistic missile 169 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 3: inventory and that it cuts its support for proxies. We 170 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 3: could have had a joint strategy. That's not what the 171 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 3: President of the United States did. He worked it out 172 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 3: with the Israeli government. He ignored pleas and from the 173 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 3: golf allies who said, do not do this because it 174 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 3: is going to affect our security, as indeed it has, 175 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 3: and he failed to even talk to our major allies, 176 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 3: both in Asia and in Europe. So as a result, 177 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 3: the Europeans and the Asian allies said, we're suffering the 178 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 3: consequences for a decision we had no input in, and 179 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 3: now you're asking us to solve. 180 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 2: It with the diplomat's perspective. 181 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: Evo Dhalder, the former US ambassador to NATO and the 182 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: Obama administration senior fellow Harvard Belfer Center, mister ambassador, it's 183 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: always great to compare notes, so we appreciate your insights.