1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? Welcome back to our Expert Guide series. 3 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: We're not just giving you a fish, we are teaching 4 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: you how to fish to become a better, better and 5 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: today we talk about the NBA. I am your host, 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: Dane Martinez, this statistician and with me today to talk 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: about betting the NBA and getting sharper. Are my guys, 8 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: Matt Moore, He's a senior NBA writer for the Action 9 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: Network and of course Dan Titus as well, NBA writer, 10 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: producer analyst for the Action Network. How you guys doing 11 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: Let's make people's better betters when it comes to the NBA. 12 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 3: Excited to talk to you today about NBA betting. 13 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 4: Let's do it. Excited to be here with you, man, 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 4: absolutely absolutely so. 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: So let's get let's get it started right because first 16 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: of all, this industry is just now so inundated. 17 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: With people claiming they know. 18 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: Let me start with you, like, how long have you 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: been betting the NBA? Like how often do you bet 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: the NBA? Quite frankly, excuse me for asking, but like 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: what makes you an actual expert? 22 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think for me, the expert part 23 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 4: comes from covering the league. 24 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 5: For fifteen years. I've been betting the NBA for about 25 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 5: twenty I started in college betting and have carried through 26 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 5: for me. I'm betting daily on the NBA now at Action, 27 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 5: whereas every single day on the NBA regular season props, sides, totals. 28 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 5: We use so many shows on the Action Network to 29 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 5: try and make people smarter and better, and that's been 30 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 5: the biggest part of my growth as a better is 31 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 5: being around the smart people at Action Network, Being around 32 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 5: people like Chris Raybond, being around people like Dan Titus, 33 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 5: being around people like Brandon Anderson have made me sharper 34 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 5: and smarter in how to cover these things as well 35 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 5: as you know, the experience of just cover the NBA 36 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 5: for fifteen years. 37 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 4: I tend to try and bring. 38 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 5: What I consider to be a little bit more of 39 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 5: a evan knowledgeable look at the league and how it works, 40 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 5: how it operates, what guys are happy, who where, and 41 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 5: which guys are unhappy, how that's working out, the schemes 42 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 5: that different teams use. I get really into the weeds, 43 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 5: and that could be a challenge sometimes I'm betting because 44 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 5: you can get too close to it. 45 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 3: For sure. I'm betting almost every night. 46 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 6: You know, I've been doing this since two thousand and nine, 47 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 6: since graduating from college. 48 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: I got my first job, and I really. 49 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 6: Just dedicated much of my paycheck to building out an 50 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 6: extraordinary Jordan collection and placing a lot of bad bets 51 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 6: on the Sixers. 52 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 3: I'm a Sixers fan at heart. 53 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 6: I remember like it was yesterday going to Game six 54 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 6: in two thousand and nine versus the Magic I had 55 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 6: hundreds of dollars on the bet on the game, and 56 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 6: Rishard Lewis put me in misery. So I've learned to 57 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 6: not bet on the Sixers as frequently. But I've also 58 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 6: learned a lot joining the Action Network team, you know, 59 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 6: as I get to break down the game and really 60 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 6: get into my analytics, I also get to hear experts 61 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 6: like Matt that have been around the league for fifteen 62 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 6: years and getting the quantitative analysis from the likes of 63 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 6: Ray Bond, Stuckey Sean Kerner in an NFL as well. 64 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 65 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: Absolutely, download the Action Network app, subscribe to the Action 66 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: Network YouTube channel, unless, of course, you are alone Orgic 67 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: to money. My man Dan is trusting the process with 68 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: the Philadelphia seventy six Ers. But I got to ask you, 69 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: Matt like, you know, you've been in this game for 70 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: a long time. Is it possible for someone new to 71 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: kind of get into this world and actually be effective 72 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 1: or profitable? 73 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: If you had to give one piece of advice for someone. 74 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: New to betting the NBA, what would be like kind 75 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: of the cornerstone bedrock principle? What are the big rocks here? 76 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: People need to know when they're starting to bet the NBA. 77 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think the toughest thing with the 78 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,959 Speaker 5: NBA is the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. 79 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 5: The playoffs that they get where the most value is. Obviously, 80 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 5: nobody wants to wait until the playoffs come just for 81 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 5: three months a year. If you're going to do that, 82 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 5: I think the big lessons is one you need to 83 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 5: be starting from some sort of number. You can work 84 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 5: off of the work that somebody else does. We've got 85 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 5: projections that Action Network. You can look in the app 86 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 5: and find what we've got games model at You have 87 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 5: to have a sense of where the number was. When 88 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 5: I was betting blind, it was really tough for me, 89 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 5: And recently this year I started building my own model 90 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 5: to get. 91 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 4: A projection on what I think the number should be. 92 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 5: That helped a time, not just for knowing spots to 93 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 5: bet for what was a stay away. I'd like a 94 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 5: side a lot, but the number would say this is 95 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 5: a little bit too within the margin of raa. This 96 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 5: is about the right line for where these teams are at, 97 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 5: based off of whatever principles you want. 98 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 4: That's why I think it makes it tough for inexperienced betters. 99 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 5: The other thing here is to understand if you're gonna bet, 100 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 5: you need a bet early or you need a bet late. 101 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,559 Speaker 5: And what I mean by that is if you're watching 102 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,679 Speaker 5: a game on Tuesday and you see that somebody's sprained 103 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 5: their ankle and it's pretty bad, and then the line 104 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 5: comes out and you see that that line is not 105 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 5: reflecting that that player is injured, that's a good spot 106 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 5: to bet on it if you can get on it early. 107 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 4: Otherwise you want to wait. 108 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 5: You really need to wait to be able to see 109 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 5: one what the market does. And we can track that 110 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 5: in the Action Network app to find out where the 111 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 5: sharps are coming in and where they think the movement is. 112 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 5: The biggest thing is injuries. Player availability in the regular 113 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 5: season is maddening in this day and age, guys just 114 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 5: take off, guys are not motivated, guys are on back 115 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 5: to backs, and all that's factored into the line a 116 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 5: little bit. So you want to wait to the last 117 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 5: possible moment and try and take advantage of those spots 118 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 5: where the line is not moved yet on a player 119 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 5: deciding now, not tonight, I'm resting my body for the future, 120 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 5: for the next game or whatever. 121 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 4: Looking for those types of spots. 122 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 5: You have to be really in the information flow if 123 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 5: you want to be profitable as an NBA. 124 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: Better Yeah, I mean, you know, my man Hermit Edwards 125 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 1: always used to say the greatest ability is availability, and 126 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: to me, that's one of the challenges in betting the NBA, 127 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: right Dan, I mean, you know Matt mentioned it before, 128 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: like you got a night game one night, and they 129 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: got it back to back the next day. I'm almost 130 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: banking on the fact that star X is not going 131 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: to play these days, and that might be a way 132 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: to get ahead of some numbers. What to you is 133 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: kind of uniquely challenging about betting the NBA. Is it 134 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: that kind of scheduling and how many times guys take 135 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: nights off. I mean, the league even had to come 136 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 1: out with something about making people play on televised games 137 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: or three nights in four days, what have you. What 138 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: do you think is the biggest challenge specifically. 139 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: To NBA betting. 140 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Matt touched on it and you just 141 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 6: nailed it right there. And I think it's the NBA's 142 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 6: player availability issue. And you know, despite the NBA's persistence 143 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 6: to try to get teams to disclose injuries and the 144 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 6: significance of injuries in a timely manner, it makes it 145 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 6: very frustrating for NBA better specifically. So you know, I implore 146 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 6: people too, if you're on the move and you don't 147 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 6: have time to dig into the analysis and read every 148 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 6: injury report that's being released what is now by the 149 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 6: hour in some cases, you know, make sure you turn 150 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,720 Speaker 6: on the Fantasy Labs notifications in Twitter, because I think 151 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 6: it's really helpful if you're wanting to bet on the 152 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 6: fly and you need to know who's in and out 153 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 6: of the lineup, because that's really going to inform your bets. 154 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 6: And you know, I can't emphasize enough how important it 155 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 6: is to do some pregame research and realizing that everybody's 156 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 6: process is different, right, Like I'm not right now, I'm 157 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 6: not you know, developing my own power ratings or player projections. 158 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 6: But there's a lot of people that are smarter than me, 159 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 6: like Brandon Anderson, Chris Rabon, et cetera, that do this 160 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 6: work for you. So depend on how you consume your 161 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 6: information and conduct your research. You know, go to those 162 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 6: find those sources of information that you trust to get 163 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 6: to almost counterballance or or replace that information that you 164 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 6: can't get on your own. And then obviously the eye 165 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 6: test is also important. You know, if you're if you 166 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 6: watch hoops make and you have a lean to something, 167 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 6: go look into the data or listen to someone that 168 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 6: that has some informed information to kind of validate or 169 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:23,679 Speaker 6: you know, substantiate your lean. 170 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 3: Or if you have to fade it. You know that 171 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 3: is the possibility too. 172 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 6: As Matt, you know, sometimes he looks at his numbers 173 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 6: and he's like, you know, something's not right here. This 174 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 6: is just a pass for me. It's okay to do that. 175 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 6: And when you're betting the night the NBA Nightly, you 176 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 6: have to be patient. So I think that that map 177 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 6: brought up some really good points there as well. 178 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: I want to I want to follow up on that, 179 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: like this availability question, because I think It's actually getting 180 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: bigger and bigger in the NBA as more and more 181 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: stars kind of manage their workload throughout the season. 182 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: Right, Lebron takes like two weeks off every January. 183 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: These guys are saying, as long as we're okay by 184 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: playoff time, it's all good. 185 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: You know. 186 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: I mentioned the strategy that I use sometimes. Okay, when 187 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: teams come back to back and star X is playing 188 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: on the front end, I'll almost take a position that 189 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: he is not playing on the back end of you know, 190 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: a back to back before that report even comes out 191 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: the next day. Right, you can see those lines overnight 192 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: and before they announced that, you know, whether it is 193 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: Lebron or KD or whoever it is is not playing. 194 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: Do you guys ever do that kind of anticipating get 195 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: ahead of that availability news, especially these days as players 196 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: are taking games off more and more. 197 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the big thing here is once again 198 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 5: keeping the information lob because there's usually hints about this. 199 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 5: They'll be asked, you know, on the front end of 200 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 5: the back and back in the pregame press conference, which 201 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 5: comes an hour and forty five minutes before tip. Coach 202 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 5: will usually say, you know, so and so is good 203 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 5: to go tonight, we'll see what his status is for tomorrow. 204 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 4: As soon as you hear we'll see what his status is. 205 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 5: That's in question, that's immediately, and that's immediately he's not 206 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 5: absolutely gonna play. If he's gonna play, they'll be like, yeah, 207 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 5: going to play. The back back should be no problems there. 208 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 5: It's back to back, but whatever, it's fine. You can 209 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 5: also pay attention to the trends throughout the season, like 210 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 5: you can just watch as this goes through. Teams will 211 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 5: pretty clearly state their intentions for these back to backs. 212 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 5: There'll be exceptions, I would say, this is. 213 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 4: An important part of it. Prepare to get burned. 214 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 5: You're gonna have nights where you're just like, what this 215 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 5: guy's when did this guy go out? 216 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 4: That's why. Again, like the timing matters. 217 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 5: If you want to be sure that you know the rosters, 218 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 5: you cannot bet until basically within the last thirty minutes 219 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 5: before the game. Thirty minutes is when teams have to 220 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 5: submit their rosters for availability. That's the limitation on it, 221 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 5: and sometimes those don't get out in time and until 222 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 5: it's like fifteen minutes before. Timing is crucial here. If 223 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 5: you want to reduce your risk factor. Now I go 224 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 5: the other way, where I want to get out earlier 225 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 5: because I want to try and get ahead of those 226 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 5: moves sometimes to improve my margin here on some of 227 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 5: these spreads because it's so tough. But those are the 228 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 5: two ways I think you have to look at it 229 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 5: if you're approaching the NBA. Is the instability of some 230 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 5: of this information and trying to go that way. 231 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 4: I think when you try. 232 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 5: And get ahead of things, you can make those calculated risks, 233 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 5: but you'd better be in the information flow and not 234 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 5: just like, well, it's a back to back, so we 235 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 5: shouldn't play right. Find out what that player's approach to 236 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 5: it is, how that coaches a approach to it is, 237 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 5: how much of us, say the team gets in managing 238 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 5: the injury. All those things matter when figuring out a 239 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 5: player is going to play or not. And bear in 240 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 5: mind that the back to back is already going to 241 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 5: be factored in to that spread before you get started. 242 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: Fair enough, Dan, we're talking a little bit now about 243 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: kind of like the day to day grind right the 244 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: second of a back to back and understanding that. Let's 245 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: step back a little bit, though, Dan, you know We're 246 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: in the off season right now in the NBA, A 247 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: very exciting time to be quite honest. We're about to 248 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: enter what I call like the legal tampering period, or 249 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: if the case, maybe What are some of the things 250 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: you look at at this point of the season when 251 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: starting to organize your hierarchy of teams moving forward. Is 252 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: it player movement, is it coach movement? Is it teams 253 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: that you think may have a different style of play, 254 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: Teams coming off bad injury seasons. You know, at this 255 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: stage of the NBA calendar, the data sources, what are 256 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 1: the information that you're looking to get ready for the 257 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: next season. 258 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm really looking for continuity here. And you know, 259 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 6: I try to be risk adverse when I'm starting in 260 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 6: the NBA season because I tend to shy away from 261 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 6: teams that have a significant coaching change, like a head 262 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 6: coaching that that could affect the strategy and scheming of 263 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 6: the offense or defense, as well as player movement, because 264 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 6: you know, this is the player empowerment era, and teams 265 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 6: are teaming up, players are teaming up all over the place, 266 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 6: So that's going to take time for people to jael. 267 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 6: So I think it's really important, you know, despite you know, 268 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,839 Speaker 6: I know that the summer League isn't really must see TV, 269 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 6: but really getting to look at the early look of 270 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 6: how teams are going to be, how players are going 271 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 6: to be integrating into teams, but then also going into 272 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 6: the preseason, how do those teams translate, how does the carryover? 273 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: And I think it's important to kind of. 274 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 6: Look at some of the data in terms of, you know, 275 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 6: because stars aren't going to play all those minutes in 276 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 6: the preseason, but you know, what the what is the 277 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 6: turnover like? Because those are the teams I want to 278 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 6: avoid initially because it's just more risk, it's more volatility 279 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 6: when there's more moving parts. 280 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 3: So if you look at the teams that don't. 281 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 6: Change a lot in early in the season, I think 282 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 6: that that's really a better's advantage because there's less risk there. 283 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: You talk about that continuity, and of course, of course 284 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: Boston and Golden State in the latest version of the 285 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: NBA Finals literally grew that core together from the draft. 286 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 1: You know, Matt, let me ask you. I'm asking about 287 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: kind of anticipating as well. Right, whether on a day 288 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: to day basis or at this point of the NBA season, 289 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: are you a guy that maybe will take a position 290 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: on a team pre free agency, you know, knowing or 291 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: assuming or thinking that some big player move is gonna 292 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: happen that's gonna reduce their futures odds. Like, for example, personally, 293 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: I believe Bradley Beal's going to Miami. You know, we've 294 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: heard could Chante Murray be going to Atlanta, which would 295 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: dramatically make their, say, Eastern Conference odds a lot shorter. 296 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: But then again, you can't believe anything you hear at 297 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: this point of the NBA season. Are you a kind 298 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: of guy who would take that and kind of get 299 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: ahead of it, like betting the Cleveland Cavaliers before Lebron 300 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: decided to come on home and almost anticipating what rosters 301 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: are going to look like two months from now. 302 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, so well, I'll say here I think on this 303 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 5: matter is there's a couple of things to factor in here. 304 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 5: Not all books are going to allow you to cash 305 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 5: out if you shorten those values. It's good to build 306 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 5: your hedge positions for the playoffs, but you need to 307 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 5: be able to be confident that they're going to be 308 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 5: in a position for you to hedge, Like that's the 309 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 5: starting point. So you said the Hawks, and they might 310 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 5: get make a major move with the Jontay Murray, but 311 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 5: they might also lose John Collins or another player. And 312 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 5: if that's the case, as we record this today, you 313 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 5: know you want to if you bet on the Hawks, 314 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 5: you have better believe that they can actually win the 315 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 5: Eastern Conference. On the other hand, right after the Warriors 316 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 5: won the title, I put in three bets and wrote 317 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 5: about them on Action Network for the title next season. 318 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 5: The Los Angeles Clippers, the Philadelphia seventy six Ers, and 319 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 5: the Milwaukee Bucks. All three of those teams are teams 320 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 5: that I think can improve in the offseason, that have 321 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 5: a serious chance of being contenders from the jump. The Clippers, obviously, 322 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 5: withou Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, their odds were plus 323 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 5: eight to fifty. 324 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 4: They've already shortened. 325 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 5: We bet on the Philadelphia seventy six Ers because I 326 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 5: believe that Darryl Morey was going to reshape the roster 327 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 5: in his image around the players that he's decided to 328 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 5: go in with and Joel Embiid and James Harden. That's 329 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 5: still in the process, but we're already seeing some benefit there. 330 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 5: And then we also got the Bucks who QUIOSI probably 331 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 5: would have beaten the Celtics in the playoffs if Chris 332 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 5: Milton was healthy. So when you're getting those guys, you 333 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 5: have to ask yourself, what do I think the chance 334 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 5: of this team winning the title is? And is that 335 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 5: commiserate with what their expected value is based on the odds. 336 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 5: And we've got tools over at Action Network to help 337 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 5: you figure those percentages out in our calculator section, and 338 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 5: that's a good place to start if you're looking for 339 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 5: future odds. It's not just about will these odds shorten, 340 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 5: because you're not always guaranteed to cash out option from 341 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 5: these books, right. You need to look at am I 342 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 5: going to be a position where if it's the Eastern 343 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 5: Conference semifinals or it's the Eastern Conference Finals, do I 344 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 5: have a position that I can then hedge against with 345 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 5: another team they'll be at a good value. And those 346 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 5: are the teams that I thought gave me the best 347 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 5: opportunity at longer odds to be able to do that 348 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 5: later on. 349 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely is getting the right shares of the right 350 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: teams at the right time. So Dan, let me go 351 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: on over to you, because you know everybody these days 352 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: are not only betting sides and totals, But the prop 353 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: market is huge these days, and especially in the NBA. 354 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: You know, I mean we could bet points, rebounds, assists, 355 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: I could bet player combos. I could bet made threes, 356 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: which is something that a lot of people are on 357 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: these days as the kind of math and geometry of 358 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: NBA basketball changes. 359 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: What do you do when betting props in the NBA? 360 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, And I think my handicapping for props is slightly 361 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 6: different from a game level if you're talking against the spread, 362 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 6: straight up total or money line here. But you know, 363 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 6: I think my process really goes back to, you know, 364 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 6: leveraging the Action Labs projection tool. I think it's very 365 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 6: handy in terms of getting an idea of what the 366 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 6: ceiling is for certain players, and then also leveraging that 367 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 6: with some of my own research that I do using 368 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 6: tools such as prop dot cash and following other note 369 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 6: trend sites like fanshore that tracks out and trends tracks 370 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 6: player performance on several different filters. But you know, I 371 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 6: think that when you're betting player props, it's really about 372 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 6: the opportunity and usage rate, and so like when I'm 373 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 6: targeting my player props, I really like to to do 374 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 6: players that are going to get a lot of minutes, 375 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 6: you know, there's going to be a high suiting of 376 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 6: at least thirty minutes and opportunity where can they take 377 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 6: advantage of mismatches. So I also tend to use a 378 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 6: defensive verse position metrics as well, so I can get 379 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 6: a baseline understanding of how a team performs against a 380 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 6: certain position and if there could be value or edge 381 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 6: there to exploit. So there's also plenty of other tools 382 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 6: that you could use, but you know, if you're trying 383 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 6: to look for player availability, which I think is probably 384 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 6: the biggest advantage that you could have and exploit a matchup, 385 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 6: make sure that you develop a Twitter list. There's tons 386 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 6: of NBA beat writers out there that you can court 387 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 6: that you can aggregate a list of them so you 388 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 6: can get up to date information on all those players, 389 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 6: how they're performing, changes systematically they may be making to 390 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 6: get more opportunity for certain players, you know, and definitely 391 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 6: look towards the end of the season when teams are tanking, 392 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 6: that is ripe for opportunity for players that are getting 393 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 6: more time, more exposure. That could certainly that the books 394 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 6: may not initially account for and you can find some 395 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 6: educases there to really take advantage of. 396 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 2: No, absolutely, you know, Matt. 397 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: One of the things that's even bigger, maybe than props 398 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 1: these days betting in the NBA is betting it live. 399 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 2: Okay, Live action. 400 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 1: In the NBA has grown so much in the percentage 401 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: of handle on basketball, And to be quite honest, Matt, 402 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: I think it's because of the tried and true saying 403 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 1: in the NBA everybody makes a run, and so quite frankly, 404 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: I'm almost just betting twenty second timeouts, like, oh, you 405 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: just call the time out to stop the momentum. 406 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 2: Let me bet there. Then we got another little run 407 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: stop twenty second time out to stop the momentum. Bet there. 408 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: I have seen that become profitable because at its core, 409 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: the NBA in basketball is a game of runs. 410 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 2: How crazy am I? How do you bet the NBA live? 411 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:03,199 Speaker 5: Now? 412 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 4: I think you're on target here. 413 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 5: I mean, look, this is something that's always amusing me 414 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 5: where a team will go down, you know, twenty three 415 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 5: to five to start and everyone's like, well, this game's over, 416 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 5: and I'm like, have you not watched an NBA gave 417 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 5: a game before? 418 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 4: Like ever in its entire history. 419 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 5: It's especially true now though, with the way that three 420 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 5: point variants has swung things over the last couple of years. 421 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 4: That's been a big factor. 422 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 5: Is that simply one team shooting over expected performance and 423 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 5: one team shooting drastically under, one of those is usually 424 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 5: going to regress. Maybe not both of them, but one 425 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 5: of them will probably regress, which is going to open 426 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 5: up the opportunity if you can find the line. Now, 427 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 5: the odds are pretty sharp, you're going to have to 428 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 5: really find those opportunities. Taking situations I think, especially where 429 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 5: one team is favored and jumps out to a big 430 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 5: lead and then the lead expands, rather than if the 431 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 5: dog jumps out early. 432 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 4: I'm a little bit more cautious. 433 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 5: I actually look for line reversals where if a team 434 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 5: was favored or was a dog by three points and 435 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 5: they're a favorite in the second quarter by three points 436 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 5: or more, that line in version is kind of a 437 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 5: point for me to buy back the other way, because 438 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 5: the books are still expecting the favorite to wind up 439 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 5: coming through there. They're always gonna be weighted towards that, 440 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 5: So I think there are opportunities there. The other thing 441 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 5: I'll say is we're seeing an expanding market for live 442 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 5: prop bets, and this is still a market. I think 443 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 5: that the books are having a hard time getting as 444 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 5: sharp as possible on We did that a lot of 445 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 5: our NBA bet streams with the NBA and had a 446 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 5: lot of success with him. 447 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 4: Where if a guy has a good first. 448 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 5: Quarter, they're still gonna be weighted against their pregame expectation. 449 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 5: But if at that guy's night, he's gonna get more touches. 450 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 5: There's an inherent human desire from teammates to feed guys 451 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 5: who are playing well. 452 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 4: So I think those are the opportunities that you need 453 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 4: to look for when live betting, you. 454 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 2: Know, and I completely agree with you, Matt. 455 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: And also sometimes in the NBA, these guys look for 456 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: benchmark numbers, right, So Luca drops twenty three in the 457 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 1: first half, They're hanging thirty eight and a half, and 458 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: I'm like, they gonna try and get them forty tonight. 459 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,679 Speaker 1: You know, that's actually the number you can go to. 460 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: I look at things like volume as well. Somebody may 461 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: have a poor efficient shooting in the first half, but 462 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: if they are still getting the touches, they are still 463 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 1: getting the usage. Eventually, maybe those shots will drop. Dan 464 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: you know you were talking about earlier in this episode 465 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 1: betting with emotion, right, the idea of following the seventy 466 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: six ers all the time and then realizing where the 467 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: process got you on that. 468 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 2: But let's kind of cap off here with that emotion again. 469 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: Like, what's the best feeling a better can have betting 470 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: the NBA? Is it getting right a moneyline dog who 471 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 1: actually cashes? Is it betting something live catching the exact 472 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 1: bottom or apex of a run? 473 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 2: Like what's your best NBA betting feeling? Emotion memory? 474 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 6: Nothing for me is more satisfying is when I find 475 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 6: the most obscure player and the books just refuse to 476 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 6: adjust the lines on him. 477 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 3: This year it was Iode Tuer four and a half points. 478 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 3: Let's stay exactly exactly. 479 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 6: This year is Iodosova, who played, who came into a 480 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 6: nice role with Lozo Ball going out early midseason. And 481 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 6: then last year was Moses Brown his rebound props for 482 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 6: a tanking thunder team. Nothing makes me happier when they 483 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 6: just continue to just keep it at the same line, 484 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 6: just throwing it out there very lazily. So And I'd 485 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 6: also say, going back to your last point about live betting, 486 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 6: It's very key to price shop because a lot of 487 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 6: these books will hang stale lines, especially towards the ends 488 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 6: of the halfs or ends of quarters, that you might 489 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 6: be able to capitalize on, So just be aware of 490 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 6: that as well. 491 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt, let me ask you. 492 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: I know you're very disciplined in this sport here, but 493 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: what's your favorite kind of betting the NBA memory emotion 494 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: feeling when you saw it go your way? 495 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. 496 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 5: For me, it's about when you're in those playoffs series 497 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,360 Speaker 5: and you think there's value on the other side, especially 498 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 5: in the dogs, and you are able to hit that 499 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 5: match up perfectly, especially where the lines are at. 500 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 4: Because you don't even need to win. 501 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 5: We bet Wolves plus two and a half win spread 502 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 5: on versus the Grizzlies, and that hit and when you're 503 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 5: able to find these moments where you have just got 504 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 5: it pegged and you know the matchup and you wind 505 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 5: up being right because the other team just did not 506 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 5: match up right. Now, for me, that's a satisfaction of 507 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 5: being able to figure out the complex puzzle, the x's 508 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 5: and o's and the rotations and the coaching matchups. 509 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 4: That to me is the best. 510 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 5: When we're able to solve those puzzles for what people 511 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 5: aren't expecting. 512 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 4: You get great payout and you see the whole board. 513 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 5: It's why I do a lot of finals matchups and 514 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 5: things like that, because I want to see the whole 515 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 5: board and figure out how things are going to line 516 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 5: up with the Dominos in the NBA playoffs. 517 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, one last thing you said is you 518 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: talked about the rotations, and knowing the player rotations is 519 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 1: really important, especially in the prop market. You know, knowing 520 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: when those guys are going to sit for the last 521 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: minute of the first quarter, in the first four minutes 522 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 1: of the second quarter, and how naturally that prop bet is. 523 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 2: Going to go down. 524 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: Wait until you know they're about to come back into 525 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: the game and you get the bottom of that number. 526 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 2: Absolutely agree. 527 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: Well, this has been another episode of our Experts Guide 528 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: series here on the Action Network, this time focused on 529 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: how to bet the NBA. I got to ask you guys, 530 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 1: both Real Quick Matt and Dan Matt, how can we 531 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: follow all your bets all your action. 532 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 4: Just download the Action Network out. 533 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 5: You can follow me on their at HP Basketball. I'm 534 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 5: also on Twitter at HB Basketball. They app is the 535 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 5: best way for you attrack your picks, get up the 536 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 5: second information where the bets and money are coming in on. 537 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 5: You can follow me and Dan both in there. You 538 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 5: just got download the Action Network. 539 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 2: AP absolutely and Dan. What's your handle out there as well? 540 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 3: Super creative? 541 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 6: Follow me at Dan Titus d A N T I 542 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 6: t US fifty eight percent hit rate and nine percent 543 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 6: I ROI this season at NBA Betting. 544 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 3: So follow me there. 545 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 1: Oh I like the plug. I actually at the top 546 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: of the show, what makes you an expert? 547 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 2: You should have. 548 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 1: Said that right there. Well, there you guys have it. 549 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: Another edition of The Experts Guide to Betting. 550 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,360 Speaker 2: Thanks lot, guys, See you next time.