WEBVTT - Bank Earnings and Inside the New Fight for Equality 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.920 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:05.760 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:08.240 you the latest news from the world's of business and finance, 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:12.120 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.600 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.080 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:23.600 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.320 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:32.600 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So earning season, as we 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:34.680 know kicking off with the batch of big bank earning 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.080 shpmorgan Chase making more money in the fourth quarter than 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:40.080 it ever has. It also signal more optimism about burs 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.160 being able to repay their loans. The biggest US bank 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:47.360 posted a jump in trading and investment banking fees. Wells Fargo, meantime, 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.880 posted worse than expected expenses in the fourth quarter, took 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.559 some charges and more than a billion for restructuring and 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.120 a few other things, some of those old account scandals, 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.560 and then city groups fixed in come traders who propped 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.480 up the banks earnings throughout much of the pandemic. They 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.640 missed endless estimates for the final amounts of There is 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:05.960 a lot to get to, so let's bring in, first 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:08.640 of all, our Michelle Davis Financial port at Bloomberg News. 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.400 She covers JP Morgan specifically, and tim safe to say, 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.400 as the biggest US bank, we care what's going on 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.360 with them, in particular, we care what they're CEO Jamie 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:20.600 Diamond has to say he is one of the long 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.960 running CEOs on Wall Street. So Michelle, good to have 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.240 you here. First of all, cap recap for me what 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.200 we got from JP Morgan, if you would so. JP 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:35.839 Morgan's earnings were definitely the standout. They generated a record 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:39.360 amount of revenue and profit in the fourth quarter twelve 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:42.160 point two billion, and that capped off a year in 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:45.400 which they made billion, which is more than any other 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.720 major bank has ever earned in a year. UM. Not 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:50.720 more than they have ever earned in a year. They 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:54.200 had the most profitable year in banking history in nineteen 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.240 UM but still a time, especially given that we're in 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:01.800 a pandemic. Jump and tree eating helped that. But they 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.760 also released nearly three billion dollars in reserves, which is uh, 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.320 it came as a surprise. You know, analysts were expecting 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:12.480 them to to maybe released two million, So three billion 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.880 is a lot and signals that you know, they feel 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:20.440 that they are well prepared to kind of withstand whatever 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.760 is coming, and it means that maybe the outlook for 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.960 for low losses isn't as bad as they were expecting 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.239 or thinking earlier on. That's a lot, man, three billion, 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:33.919 I'm just going to say, yeah, it feels like a lot. Well, 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.080 what was the commentary that we heard from the bank 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:40.120 about uncertainty about customers being able to pay their credit 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:46.600 card bills, about when fiscal stimulus will actually hit customers, 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:50.760 those sorts of things. So, you know, they struck a 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:52.840 bit more of an upbeat tone than they have in 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:57.320 past quarters, but they did mention multiple times that you know, 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.920 they're still uncertainty. There are a few things that are 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:02.400 are leading some of this optimism. You know, one is 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:06.120 obviously that there's a vaccine that you know, according to 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:08.640 CEO Jamie Diamond, could mean that you know, people are 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.160 going back to work as early as a September, you know, 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.400 like enforced um. And also the fact that there's you know, 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:17.880 perhaps certainty on the change in administration and the fact 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.280 that stimulus has been fast and there could be more coming. 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.560 These are all things that are led to the optimism 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:27.040 on the consumer side. The one area of I guess 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.560 uncertainty that they really called out was on the credit 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:33.120 card side. Um. They didn't release any reserves there, and 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:36.760 they pointed to a possibility of a payment shock coming 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:41.680 if and when uh, you know, benefits expire. Um. But 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.080 so far, you know, there haven't been any delinquencies, Like 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.400 there have some delinquencies, but nothing that you'd expect from 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:53.800 you know, millions of people unemployed. Uh, the their net 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.560 charge jobs actually went down from the crisis quarter and 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.600 from from last year. So they're saying that, you know, 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:01.880 they they could start to see losses starting in the 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:07.520 second half of this year or even later. So well 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.760 knit NT listen you know this, Michelle, We go to Jamie. 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:12.640 We like to hear what he has to say because he's, 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:15.720 you know, kind of one of those elder sorry Jamie elder, 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:17.960 but you know, in good shape from what I understand. Um, 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.720 you know statesman out there that has seen a lot 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.280 of crises, you know, was really you know key through 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.960 the financial crisis. This is a different crisis. Fair to say, um, 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:29.919 but we care what he has to say about the bigger, 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.880 broader picture. Was he more optimistic or was he more cautious? 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.800 He was definitely more optimistic. They spent a ton of 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:40.440 time on on the analyst and the media called talking 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:43.279 about investments that they're going to be making. And actually, 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:45.640 you know, their shares last time I look, we're down. 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.120 And one of the reasons that you know, could have 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:50.920 they could have been done it because they announced this 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:54.280 big twelve point four billion investment initiative, which is it's 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:56.320 a couple of billion more than they normally spend on, 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:59.200 you know, new things. And and Jamie, you know, he 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.120 was just talking about how they had so much capital, 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.320 more capital than they can do anything with. Yeah, they're 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:06.760 gonna buyback stock, but also he wants to do some 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.240 M and A. So he was optimistic. Yeah, I mean 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.240 he said, yeah, like they're still uncertainty, and we have 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.560 to get through this pandemic first. And there's gonna be 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.560 a ton of questions later on about how we fix 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:20.440 you know that the US deficit. But for now, let's 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.040 get through this. And like I'm gonna do some deals 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:27.200 in the meantime hopefully. Right Capital Interesting stacks down about 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:29.360 one point two percent, but let me remind everybody it's 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:32.440 still up almost ten percent so far this year, and 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:34.920 that's after our gain actually was down a little bit 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.960 in a UM. Anton Switz is also with US president 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.640 chief investment officer at Mandon Capital Visors on the phone 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:45.040 in Florida. Anton, Good to have you here, Happy new year. 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:47.160 Nice to have you here with Tim and myself and Michelle. 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:51.080 Michelle has been kind of running down JP Morgan's quarter 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.640 and what Jamie Diamond had to say, What do you 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:58.320 make of JP Morgan's results specifically? I think the numbers 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:02.200 were pretty strong across the Ford. You know clearly the 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:06.800 KAPA markets were great. UM reserve releases you have really 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:10.400 become formulaic. I mean, there's there's a new accounting system 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:14.320 that went into place UM last year called CECIL, and 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.160 a lot of the reserves depend upon the modeling, and 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:20.520 a lot of consultants come in and model. I know 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:27.800 Moody is much is much more optimistic. Got it, got it? 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:29.640 Got it? Hey, Michelle, I know you're going to leave 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.480 us in Anton's going to come back. UM just thirty 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.600 seconds here. The key takeaway then from JP Morgan, because 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:37.480 we're gonna still get a few more bank big bank 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:42.040 earnings next week, just quickly. Yeah, key takeaway would be 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:50.239 UH most profitable quarter ever UH reserve releases. There, there's optims. 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:54.080 You know, they're optimistic, and actually all the banks are optimistic, 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.120 more optimistic than they have been. So it's probably good 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.360 well for next week. All right, we'll see what I'll happen. Michelle, 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:02.600 thank you so much. Appreciate the breakdown of a good weekend. 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:05.160 Michelle Davis Financial report at Bloomberg News with us on 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.320 the phone from Vermont. Anton Schitz is going to come 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.800 back with US President and chief investment officer at MEN 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.840 and Capital Advisors. His MEN and Financial Services fun up 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:15.840 more than nine percent so far this year, putting it 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.960 in the eightie percentile at least according to Bloomberg data. 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:21.040 He's very much into regional, so we'll get into that. 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:27.680 Sounds good. Also, nice time with optimism. This is Bloomberg 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:31.360 Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:35.239 Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. This story definitely caught our attention. 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:37.679 It's in Bloomberg Business Week magazine This week, it's about 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:39.960 something we hear a lot from our medical guest him 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.720 when it comes to COVID nineteen. We know vaccines are important, 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:46.280 but so too is more testing. Test, test, test, That's 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:47.720 what it's about. That's what's one of the things that's 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:50.280 going to get us out of this pandemic exactly. And 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:52.720 forgottence on that, just look to Minnesota. Let's get into 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:56.280 that story. Susan Burfield, she has Projects and Investigations report 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.960 at Bloomberg News. She's reporting with Bloomberg's Michelle Cortez, who's 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.400 with us on the phone from Brooklyn, and also with 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:04.320 us is Bloomberg Business wee get it or Joe Webber 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:08.120 on the remote access from Brooklyn as well. Joel. We're 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:12.720 also consumed by the vaccine, getting it out, rolling it out, 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:17.160 but let's not forget we've got to continue testing as well. Yeah, 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.960 and you undersold ay a key cell of this story, 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:26.720 which was Minnesota, and the Minnesota part of the story 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.800 is is really an interesting one because this is the 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.560 state that actually had a budget surplus and was able 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:34.440 to kind of you know, so this is in praise 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:38.000 of fiscal responsibility. They were able to basically take that 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.760 budget and just immediately pour it into testing. And as 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:45.480 Susan UM will tell us more about, the state has 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:49.600 basically made it its mission to test everyone in the state. 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:55.240 UM Man, woman child, do it relentlessly, make it free 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:57.839 and so simple that all you have to do is 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.600 spit in the tube and put it in the mail. Um, Susan, 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:07.480 Why isn't everyone following Minnesota's lead here? Yeah? Thanks everybody. So, 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:11.360 you know, as you mentioned Joelic, Minnesota had a few 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:15.959 advantages UM, it had a budget surplus, but it also 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.920 did direct a lot of the money it received from 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:24.120 the federal government to testing. Just early on made UM 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:28.439 the decision, you know, informed both by its relationships with 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:32.320 the Mayo Clinic UM and the University of Minnesota, great 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:37.000 research institution, that testing was going to be crucial UM. 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:39.760 And you know, as the summer went on, it became 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:42.760 obvious that it didn't just have to be you know, 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:47.360 easy and convenient, It had to be free and wildely available, 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.000 and they had to use you know, the version of 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.760 testing that UM is the easiest for everybody really, which 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.959 is as you mentioned that the saliva test UM. And 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:01.240 so you know what Minnesota did is actually a UH 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:06.880 work with UM the company that oversees the Salibery test 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.079 and the lab that processes those samples to build its 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:13.440 own lab. And I think that was really crucial because 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:17.640 that lab is dedicated to Minnesota residents and it can 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:21.960 process up to thirty thousand tests a day, jeez, Louise, 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.679 which you know begs the question like if if you 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.880 were doing thirty those swabs, Like, I think that gets 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.400 kind of kind of tiring. But the fact that it's 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.160 you know, you're able to spit in the tube UM 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.480 takes so much of the workout. And as I understand, 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:42.959 the test is exactly the same effectively in terms of 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:46.959 its results. So so what about like why was the 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:51.160 spit quotient so so useful in Minnesota and why why 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:55.280 aren't more people able to use it? Yeah? So UM, yeah, 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.040 so you're right, it's it's UM. It is the same 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:02.160 test you know as nasal slobs UM that some of 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:05.559 us have had, which are pretty uncomfortable, UM also have 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:10.480 to be done, you know, with a medical professional right 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:14.520 there with you. So one advantage of the saliva test, 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.000 of course is that you UM can do it at home. UM. 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:21.959 So that means fewer medical professionals. That means less of 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:26.760 the protective equipment is required. Um, the tests can be 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:30.920 processed as quickly. UM. And I guess what's holding back 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.599 other states from being able to do this is in 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.520 part you know, the tests are more expensive, and so 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.800 Minnesota decided that you know, it was going to pay 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:44.400 for the test when it couldn't get reimbursed by insurance companies. 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.199 So the state made a pretty big commitment to make 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:51.640 those tests in particular free to everybody. And so you know, 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:55.439 anyone in Minnesota can sign up UM and receive a 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:58.319 kit at home, I mean more than one UM and 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.320 you know take the has to get the results um 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:06.280 within uh, within seventy two hours. So UM. You know 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:10.720 there's there's um only a couple of these labs around 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.520 the country. UM the company and the company has been 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.880 talking to other states, but UM, you know it, you know, 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.839 as everyone knows, it's really every state for itself, or 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.640 at least it has been. You know, if you want 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:27.199 a lab, you have to build it and you have 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.120 to pay for it. Susan, I gotta say, I wish 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.679 I had read this story like months ago, because I've 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.480 done the SPIT test and it's kind kind of easy, 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:37.800 but it's actually it wasn't so easy, kind of working 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.079 up all the spit to be quite honest. And you 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.079 have actually a piece of advice that or that you 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:46.960 learned about and how to do that. That's right. The secret. 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:51.720 The secret apparently is um to smell, not eat, because 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.120 you can't eat for thirty minutes before you take the test. Right, 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.760 But if you smell pickles or even lemon, apparently that 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.439 helps you produce UM more surviva than normal. And then 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.160 I guess afterwards, if you consider it a treat, you 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:10.000 could eat either of them. Who. Well, we do know 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.400 that the testing is key to getting us out of 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.360 this pandemic. So so where does the States stand with 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.400 getting things under control? How how is the testing actually 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.360 manifested when it comes to positivity rates and in the 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:26.800 status of of how people are faring? Yeah, so you know, Joel, Um, 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.160 Joel joked but not really joking, m jokingly, you know, 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.520 asked like why Minnesota, and um, you know, one of 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.840 one of the reasons I think that made Minnesota up 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:42.000 particularly compelling case study, if you will, is that, uh, 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:44.280 you know, as we know, over the summer in the fall, 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:49.839 most every state that surrounded Minnesota, the Dakota, Dakota is 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:53.920 Wisconsin were having a terrible time of it, you know, 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.640 some of the worst worst case rates in the country. 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.360 And so Minnesota of course is not um you know, 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:08.000 cannot separate itself from its neighbors. UM. But when the 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.559 Dakotas were the first and second basically were you know, 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.520 had the highest positivity rates in the nation, UM, Minnesota's 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:20.240 never rose above one. So, you know, as even the 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:24.240 governor said, like it was a very effective program, UM. 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:29.080 But the sheer magnitude of the cases in the country, 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:34.080 you know, of course, you know, works against any state's efforts. 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.560 You know, what one state can only do so much, 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:41.080 and yet every state has been asked to fend for itself. Well, 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.120 this is where we've seen, certainly the problem, and we'll 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.160 see what happens under a new administration where we start, 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:47.720 you know, whether or not, Susan we start to see 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.280 some cord coordination. This is a great deep dive into 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:55.760 what Minnesota is going and as Joel said, Minnesota knew. Susan. 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:57.680 Thanks so much of a great week in Susan Burfield. 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.040 She's projects and investigations are port at Bloomberg Busines this 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:01.920 week on the phone from Brooklyn. If you got some 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:04.040 time over the weekend, check out our book to the 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.240 Hour of Fate Theodore Roosevelt, JP Morgan and the Battle 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.960 to Transform American Capitalism. Jill Weber, thank you as well, 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.120 editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Bloomberg Business Week, by the way, 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:17.560 on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com and also always 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:21.800 on the Bloomberg terminal. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:26.800 Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovy on Bloomberg Radio. 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:29.320 So you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.000 along with Tim Stanovic. Let's get right to it because 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.000 with us back with us in our Friday check when 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.000 it comes to COVID nineteen. Is Dr Ian las Bader, 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.560 Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at n y U Lango Medical Center. 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.040 This on a day where we've seen deaths from COVID 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:50.200 nineteen globally top two million. We've got approaching about four 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:52.720 hundred thousand deaths in the US alone. A lot going 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.800 on right now. Uh. I so good to have you here. 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.280 How are you? Dooan Weill? Carol? Thanks, I head and 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.600 tim Happy Friday. I did have my second shot earlier 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:06.040 this week, so I'm I'm certainly feeling safer. The second 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.640 shot definitely hip pecs a little more punch, and some 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.680 people do have a little fatigue a little aches, which 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.480 I experienced, but I was able to keep working through. 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:18.160 So we definitely want to encourage everyone to do it. 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.720 And uh, there is some vaccine hesitancy, which I'm sure 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.800 we'll talk about, but uh, it does feel good to 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.680 get both shots, and I know a lot of people 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:28.960 want them and are trying to figure out how to 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:30.720 get that. We were curious because we had a story 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.360 yesterday that yu Len Going was telling its doctors it 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.360 may not get new vaccines next week and that they 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.320 were I think running out of supply. So that's not 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.280 the case. That is exactly the case. Ye know. We 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:45.120 had a conference call today and the conference call really 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.760 illustrates the number of, you know, the issues of getting 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:52.640 the vaccine into people's arms. One is the good news 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.840 is that we can do at our multiple sites somewhere 0:16:56.880 --> 0:17:00.760 between five and seven thousand vaccines a day. We're getting 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:05.360 about five thousand vaccine doses per week, so really there 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.639 is a big gap between what we could administer and 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.879 what's being delivered from the state. I just want to 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.040 get these numbers right. You're getting fewer in one week 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.280 than you could actually be able to deliver in one day. 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:20.320 That is correct, That is correct. What is the what 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:25.159 are you hearing about that increasing? Well, you know, we 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.960 really rely on the state and as of the Friday 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:32.960 conference call by one of our you know leaders, um, 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.320 they will not know until I think Sunday night whether 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.880 or not the number and when they will be delivery 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:44.080 of vaccine for next week. So many patients are frustrated. 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:46.439 You know, they're calling when can I come in? Uh, 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.400 those are the ones without vaccine hesitancy. But a number 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.439 of patients are calling. They may have underlying littal immune 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:55.240 disease or other issues, and they may not fit the 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.720 exact criteria and they want to know can I get 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:02.639 it sooner? Um? But we are not being booked until 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.520 the vaccine is president president. So that's been the at 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:08.680 least the ny U policy, which is you don't want 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.560 to give people dates unless you really know that you 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.000 have vaccine to give them. So in part the hold 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:15.920 up is certainly getting it from New York State, and 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:18.200 I assume New York State is having some problem getting 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.440 it delivered as well. So when does this get better? 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.639 I mean, what are you telling patients and what you 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.480 can tell our listeners about when these bumps could be 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:29.000 ironed out? Well, I wish I knew, uh, you know, 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:33.080 I I think we did not. Um, this should have 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:37.520 been better anticipated. Really you know this, We're we're do 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:39.960 pretty well with the flu shot and that's really given 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.119 out over several months. We do that to a hundred 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:46.520 fifty million people. But this mass vaccination really, in my opinion, 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:50.520 should have been handled by central authorities, the military, you know, 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:55.640 drive through There should be vaccine that's available at you know, pharmacies. 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:58.560 We really should have, I think, had a better execution 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:03.320 of not only delivery of the vaccines, but exactly you know, 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:05.960 down to the patient, how it would be administered. So 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.000 I think we're coping as best as we can. We're 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:10.960 trying to give it out as best as we can, 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:16.040 but the supplies are limited, and of course, um every center, 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.639 you know, the local doctor's office don't have this because 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.240 at least for the visor and really for the maderna, 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.640 which is are the most widely available at this point, 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:27.240 they do need special refrigeration, much more so for viser 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:31.119 of course, So you're literally waiting for a styrofoam box 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:36.800 of frozen vaccine to be brought into the UH Vaccine 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:40.680 Center to be given out to people. Uh, it could 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:42.720 be more efficient, Let's put it that way. Are there 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:44.840 any hopes, any signs that you're seeing that once we 0:19:44.880 --> 0:19:47.320 get a new administration place it's just around the corner 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.000 next week, that things will change. I'm just curious if 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:52.440 if your team there at n y U and go 0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:55.200 to is hearing anything about that. You know, I think 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:57.840 there's a lag. I think everyone wants to do the 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.920 right thing. I think a new administrat ration needs a 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:03.400 ramp up time to kind of get a feel for exactly, 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:07.399 you know, the distribution that's present and perhaps how it 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:09.960 can be improved. I'm very confident that there are a 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:12.200 number of vaccines, you know, the astra zeneca and J 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.600 and J, which is one shot which will make life easier. 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.960 That a game changer potentially in I think, so you 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:21.800 know that the data is that you really have to 0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:25.520 wait like six to eight weeks to really get full efficacy, 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.120 but not having to bring people back is really that's 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.800 really part of the other problem that you give people 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:33.480 the shot and you have to get them in the 0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:38.080 computer to schedule. From maximum efficacy, you know, you need 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.600 to book the second shot really at the time of 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:44.080 the first shot ideally. So I think that J and 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:46.119 J will make it a lot easier to do more 0:20:46.240 --> 0:20:49.680 widespread vaccination, which I think is the only hope really 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:51.879 bend the curve here with the you know, with the 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.760 deaths and disability. I feel sad for I've had a 0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:59.520 couple of patients UM die who literally are probably just 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.840 weeks away from if they were able to get the vaccine. 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:05.600 So it's very sad, it is. And we're getting sort 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.240 of conflicting news today. Right on the one hand, we're 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:11.840 seeing COVID hospitalizations drop in in thirties six states, But 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.880 at the same time we're hearing this new report UM 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:19.040 from the CDC about a faster spreading variant that could 0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:22.240 overwhelm the US just like it has in the UK. 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.480 How do you sort of bring those two things together? 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:31.359 So all viruses mutate is sort of selection pressure, and 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:36.440 UM viruses do better the easier they spread UM and 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:40.080 the less lethal they are is typically what happens. So 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:44.199 UM so The bad news is it it spreads more easily. 0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:48.600 It appears that it's less lethal or comparably lethal. But 0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:53.520 I think the vaccines, because they're polyclonal, meaning multiple antibodies 0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:56.360 to the spike protein, I do think the vaccines will 0:21:56.400 --> 0:22:00.240 be very helpful in reducing all of the variants we've 0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:03.160 seen so far. So I think that's encouraging. I think 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:07.160 we can expect further mutation. Will really have to see. Hopefully. 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.720 What won't happen is that the virus will mutate so sufficiently, 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:14.800 say by next fall, that the vaccines will become ineffective. 0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:18.080 That would really be terrible because then you need another 0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:21.520 mass vaccination program. I don't think that's going to happen. 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:25.600 You don't, how come no really quickly, because that spike 0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:30.359 protein is really how the virus attaches to ourselves. Uh, 0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:35.200