Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
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Speaker 2: thrilled to have for you, and you know I call
Speaker 2: it from October to October's ago the Yardnni and Kompora
Speaker 2: Market Ralph and Kampora, the technician and ed Yard Denny
Speaker 2: of Yale with economics and markets called this great bullmarket
Speaker 2: and we're thrilled at mister Ardenny, Doctor Eodenny could be
Speaker 2: in our studios today. Where is your SMP target And
Speaker 2: with the report of disinflation and sluggish retail sales, does
Speaker 2: that make you move it up? Can we make some
Speaker 2: news here on SMP six thousand?
Speaker 3: Well, I've been actually getting a lot of people asking me,
Speaker 3: am I going to raise my numbers? And I thought
Speaker 3: my numbers are pretty aggressive about a year ago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you're on surveillance now, so we got to
Speaker 2: make some news.
Speaker 3: Well we were fifty. You know, my target is still
Speaker 3: fifty four hundred. I still use it, but it's a bullmarket,
Speaker 3: you know. I can't time it exactly and precisely, but
Speaker 3: I think we're heading towards six thousand by next year
Speaker 3: and sixty five hundred the year after that. So that's
Speaker 3: a twenty five percent increase.
Speaker 2: My great theme, and I say this to the ds
Speaker 2: Edyard Denny, ed Hymen and others. My mantra from my
Speaker 2: father is corporations adapt and adjust. Right, How are corporations
Speaker 2: adapting and adjusting to ed Yard Denny's roaring twenties?
Speaker 3: Well, I think you're seeing a tremendous amount of spending
Speaker 3: on technology, not just number one. Well, you know, if
Speaker 3: you look at capital spending in current dollars, fifty percent
Speaker 3: of that now is going to technology capital spending. And
Speaker 3: that's an understatement because it doesn't include things like trucks.
Speaker 3: I mean, why would truck be you know it? Well,
Speaker 3: the truck is the device, and the logistics software is
Speaker 3: what runs it. There, everything's technology. So my pet theory
Speaker 3: here is that when you look at the stock market,
Speaker 3: you have to think of every stock as a technology company.
Speaker 3: They're either making it or using it. If they're not
Speaker 3: using it, they're going to lose it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker 5: How can this retail sales number our Jersey was suggesting,
Speaker 5: that's what the market's focusing on. Again, the Retail Sales
Speaker 5: Control Group came in it negative zero point three percent.
Speaker 5: Consensus was where positive zero point one percent last period
Speaker 5: was actually one percent, So.
Speaker 4: A real fall off there. What's your view of the
Speaker 4: consumer ad and how do you think that the well
Speaker 4: looking at.
Speaker 3: The conser I think it's important to remember when the these
Speaker 3: numbers come out that it's merchandise, it's goods. And what's
Speaker 3: been interesting is we had this buying binge coming out
Speaker 3: of the pandemic lockdowns and people couldn't buy services, so
Speaker 3: they bought a tremendous amount of goods. And then they
Speaker 3: they didn't stop buying goods, they just didn't increase their purchases.
Speaker 3: So purchases of goods is still at an all time record,
Speaker 3: I had just been kind of sluggish flat for the
Speaker 3: past couple of years. Meanwhile, services is absolutely booming, as
Speaker 3: we all know if you go to the airport for example,
Speaker 3: or restaurants with you Amana.
Speaker 2: Grey here in this room, folks ed Yard Denny with
Speaker 2: this here with futures up twenty seven off of sluggish
Speaker 2: retail report in Netflix right now, there's this spectacular black
Speaker 2: and white series called Ripley. I saw it, you thought yes,
Speaker 2: another one early in it is the communication that you
Speaker 2: and I knew years ago pre technology of the mom
Speaker 2: Blanc meister Struck one nine really nine hundred dollars. It's
Speaker 2: a big, ugly mud block that only the rich kids had.
Speaker 2: That's when we were in school. Now we've got yesterday,
Speaker 2: Google coming out right with this incredible and gene Monster
Speaker 2: was plus plus on the new search to new AAI
Speaker 2: the technology in your controversial call of Roaring twenties? Is
Speaker 2: it about AI? Do you believe in AI moving the
Speaker 2: Dow above forty thousand.
Speaker 3: I think so much money is being spent on AI
Speaker 3: that a good percentage of that is going to pay off.
Speaker 3: I think there is a certain amount of hype. I
Speaker 3: think open AI where it's open to the internet. I
Speaker 3: think that's going to turn out to be a very
Speaker 3: big disappointment. It was for me when I signed up
Speaker 3: for it and hoped that it could write my daily briefings,
Speaker 3: and I had to spend the whole day correcting its errors.
Speaker 3: But I think as long as companies put in just
Speaker 3: their company data, it's going to turn out to be
Speaker 3: a supercharge. And nobody's even talking about supercomputers anymore because
Speaker 3: the GPUs, when you pile them all together, they seem
Speaker 3: to be fast do the job. They seem to be
Speaker 3: fast enough. So look, I think the stock market started
Speaker 3: to discount the roaring twenty twenty scenario on November thirtieth,
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, when OpenAI introduced chat GPT and now
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, utilities our AI plays. Copper is
Speaker 3: an AI play.
Speaker 2: So I look at eminem theory, you know, and I've
Speaker 2: never been a big fan of the certitude of it.
Speaker 2: I think it's really squishing. There's a lot of problems,
Speaker 2: but the bottom line is on use of capital. The
Speaker 2: new rage is again share buybacks. They're exploding. Ediard Denny
Speaker 2: on the support that share buybacks give to the bid
Speaker 2: is that constructive or is it ephemeral?
Speaker 3: Well, it is what it is. I think it's real money,
Speaker 3: and the money is going to buy these stocks back.
Speaker 3: So I think it's certainly another factor behind the stock
Speaker 3: market doing quite well.
Speaker 2: Edgar Denny with us with your Denny research. He just
Speaker 2: had a new hire. We'll talk about that later. Tom
Speaker 2: Keen and Paul swenia across this nation with features of
Speaker 2: twenty five. He's going to get us down forty thousand today.
Speaker 4: I think probby he.
Speaker 2: And Alex Steele will see that later on. Paul a
Speaker 2: ten year real yield down to two point zero seven percent.
Speaker 5: Yep, we've had to pull back again at the ten year.
Speaker 5: Just trading here for spot three six on a ten
Speaker 5: year ed. So, are you surprised that this s and P.
Speaker 5: Five hundred that this stock market has done as well
Speaker 5: as it has this year up ten percent or so
Speaker 5: in an environment where the rate cut environment has really
Speaker 5: become barrassed.
Speaker 4: She went from six cuts today, one or two today,
Speaker 4: whatever it is.
Speaker 3: No, I'm very encouraged by that. It shows that the
Speaker 3: economy can live with these interest rates, the stock market
Speaker 3: could live with these interest rates. These are normal interest rates.
Speaker 3: The fed has really normalized. We're back to where we
Speaker 3: were before the insanity period, from the Great Financial Crisis
Speaker 3: to the Great virus crisis. So normal is good.
Speaker 4: Normal is good. So it's been earnings, I mean earning.
Speaker 3: Earnings are doing just fine.
Speaker 2: Okay, Ed, you'r dourney with us, folks. We're going to
Speaker 2: continue daing to Telsea on deck here in about fifteen minutes.
Speaker 2: Generous of Ed. You're doney to be with us this morning.
Speaker 2: Our economic indicators and they move the market this morning.
Speaker 2: Thank you to Commonwealth for their commitment to Bloomberg surveillance.
Speaker 2: The indicators brought you by Commonwealth supporting more than two
Speaker 2: thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to
Speaker 2: grow thriving business. Commonwealth go where you grow. Visitcommonwealth dot
Speaker 2: com to learn more. For those of you not in
Speaker 2: the game, why are we with Ed Yardenny because he
Speaker 2: made an incredibly lonely fundamental economic call two octobers ago
Speaker 2: to say you should own equities in America. And he
Speaker 2: does this always with a more long term basis as well.
Speaker 2: I want you to speak to the trillions of money
Speaker 2: that's out there right now, and yet it's joined five
Speaker 2: percent and there's a taxes or whatever you know, have
Speaker 2: to go into the net net. But the bottom line
Speaker 2: is they are they read ed Yardnny or listen to
Speaker 2: you intrepidation give them the confidence to make the first
Speaker 2: marginal investment.
Speaker 3: Well, there's a tremendous amount of money and money market
Speaker 3: mutual funds, as you said, and people have been very
Speaker 3: comfortable earning four and a half five percent in these instruments.
Speaker 3: But that is kind of a it is a short
Speaker 3: term instrument. It's a short term place. It's not a
Speaker 3: long term bet on prosperity, which is what equities are,
Speaker 3: and even some corporate bonds certainly are a bet on
Speaker 3: long term prosperity in the economy. So I think I've
Speaker 3: got nothing positive to say or negative to say about
Speaker 3: people who feel that they want to not take very
Speaker 3: much risk. I think, by the way, it's great that
Speaker 3: interest rates are back to levels or people who don't
Speaker 3: want to take risks don't want to be in the
Speaker 3: market Sweeny's.
Speaker 2: Doing, Yeah, I mean up and coupons.
Speaker 5: So I mean, what sectors in the equity market do
Speaker 5: well in an environment? Where are the ten years? I
Speaker 5: don't know, four and a half percent.
Speaker 3: I think the answer is becoming all of them. Who
Speaker 3: would have thought that the utilities are our plays on
Speaker 3: artificial intelligence, and suddenly copper is is another way to
Speaker 3: play information technology. So I've been recommending information technology, financials industrials,
Speaker 3: but the market is clearly broadening at back to I
Speaker 3: think we're seeing some excitement in smid caps, even emerging markets.
Speaker 3: I mean, we've got global stock markets at an all
Speaker 3: time record high excluding the US, and the US will
Speaker 3: be at a record high very shortly on Friday.
Speaker 2: And folks like you know full disclosure. I mean, everybody
Speaker 2: that comes into us, we protect the copyright of all
Speaker 2: their work, as we do with that your den. But
Speaker 2: I really want to emphasize that your Denny Research has
Speaker 2: very accessible short notes. I mean it's a price of
Speaker 2: like two martinis. You know, it's like well, okay at
Speaker 2: the Carlisle. But you know your Denny's live in large
Speaker 2: with some great publications, and I urge you to look
Speaker 2: at them if you design concision in your reading. The
Speaker 2: doom Clue publishes on Friday like clockwork to get through
Speaker 2: the entertainment of the weekend. They're humbled. What do you
Speaker 2: say to the doom What did the doom Crew get
Speaker 2: wrong to me on an isl on basis is they're
Speaker 2: completely focused on the parlor game of the FED, and
Speaker 2: they're not focused on the dynamics of the broader world,
Speaker 2: which is the real economy, which was gospel at Yale
Speaker 2: a few years ago.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I had to unlearn a lot of
Speaker 3: things I learned at Yale. Quite honestly. It's very canesy
Speaker 3: and in its orientation. But I've become, like the FED,
Speaker 3: very data dependent, and I try to look at the
Speaker 3: big developments, and I think where a lot of economists
Speaker 3: missed is the demographics. We've got baby boomers that are
Speaker 3: retiring and they don't have a lot of them don't
Speaker 3: have a mortgage, they don't have college tuition payments anymore.
Speaker 3: They just have lots of time on their hand, and
Speaker 3: they've accumulated enough money to go on cruises and go
Speaker 3: to restaurants and check into the hospitals every now and
Speaker 3: then just to make sure they can keep going.
Speaker 4: Exactly looking at us, I don't know, you know, I
Speaker 4: don't know.
Speaker 2: I got to do one more question here, and this
Speaker 2: is an audible folks, on my part, we had surveillance
Speaker 2: always look at the great journalists run even over the desk.
Speaker 2: Star Keepney has been on fire. I should say there
Speaker 2: was a guy at the Journal named Wallerstein who did
Speaker 2: some great, great work on macro. Right, he's died and
Speaker 2: gone to heaven and he gets to work for ed
Speaker 2: Yard Denny. How would God's name did you get Eric
Speaker 2: Wallerstein to lose the dark trade and come over and
Speaker 2: make it, you know, get a real job.
Speaker 3: I offered him a job. He took it and it
Speaker 3: was a done deal, like an.
Speaker 2: What's he going to do for you?
Speaker 3: Well, he's going to do everything that I do. But
Speaker 3: his background is he worked on the fed's Open market desk,
Speaker 3: so he's a real whiz kid when it comes to
Speaker 3: the fixed income markets. So he'll certainly give us a
Speaker 3: lot more depth than that in that area. But other
Speaker 3: than that, you know, all hands on deck and he's
Speaker 3: another great hand on deck.
Speaker 2: Let him go to the Lisa Matteo Media School and
Speaker 2: then we'd love to have him in Doctor Yard Denny,
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. And can I say this, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna put Ben Laydler in this group, Ralph and Kompora.
Speaker 2: There's a few others, but ed Yard Denny, like nobody
Speaker 2: has called this great bow market of October of I
Speaker 2: think it's two thousandial securities.
Speaker 4: I mean the CJ.
Speaker 2: Lawrence was green ink, right, it was like a green ink.
Speaker 3: You'd sit there, got the same thing.
Speaker 2: With a pencil in your hand, and Yard Denny's got
Speaker 2: the same c J. Lawrence and it was like, you know,
Speaker 2: Ed Hyman like sort of invented, and Yard Denny came
Speaker 2: along and gave it this whole twisted twist. It was
Speaker 2: better when it was printed. Am I right?
Speaker 3: I don't know. We're high tech now, so I'm not going.
Speaker 2: To agree with that. Okay, Edgiar Denny, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: I can you thank you for your support of what
Speaker 2: we do. We go to Dana Telsey of the Telsey
Speaker 2: Advisory Group. She's been waiting listening to Eddie R. Denny
Speaker 2: as well. Dana, a pretty moldy control group. Is that
Speaker 2: a trend? Is it? Is it a weaker retail sales
Speaker 2: trend that you and Joe Feldman have to work with?
Speaker 6: Yes, it is. It is a weaker retail sales environment.
Speaker 6: Do you have a consumer who's much more cautious and
Speaker 6: discerning than they've ever been in the past, you're seeing
Speaker 6: greater clarity to margins and profits than your are to sales,
Speaker 6: given that inventory levels or lean and the consumer in
Speaker 6: all income levels have moderated their spend of touch certainly
Speaker 6: what you and I talk about Tom with the uber
Speaker 6: high end like your mess of the world continue to spend,
Speaker 6: but beyond that we've seen will be definitely more cautious
Speaker 6: in what they're spending. And retailers are aware of it, right,
Speaker 6: I mean.
Speaker 2: I mean Red Lobster with some challenges to say the least,
Speaker 2: even though Mike McKee is you know, Mike mcke's are
Speaker 2: like three days a week having the lobster in stake special.
Speaker 2: Of course there some byproducts in the steak. But are
Speaker 2: we going to see a workout here in retail, in
Speaker 2: middle retail, the middle department stores in the lower ranges,
Speaker 2: Dana Telsea, are we going to see a rationalization of stores?
Speaker 6: I think we've been seeing that. Look at Macy's announcements
Speaker 6: of their store closures that's out there. You haven't had
Speaker 6: many companies on the watch list, but you have had
Speaker 6: announcements of closures. Ninety nine cents only stores going away
Speaker 6: expressed closing a bunch of their stores, So it's getting
Speaker 6: more productive. But the interesting thing for all the closures,
Speaker 6: there is more demand for space than there is supply.
Speaker 6: I'm sure if you walk around Manhattan, we're seeing a
Speaker 6: pickup in occupancy. We're seeing more news stores. Come. This
Speaker 6: weekend is the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, where
Speaker 6: the retail real estate audience gets together, and I think
Speaker 6: we're going to continue to hear of more demand than
Speaker 6: supply because retailers are investing in those footprints, because consumers
Speaker 6: want that social entertainment of going to a store, and
Speaker 6: they could buy online and pick a store.
Speaker 2: Also, I mean, Paul, the retails convention, that's like the
Speaker 2: plumber's convention. How about that square footage at the Short
Speaker 2: Hills mall?
Speaker 4: Exactly?
Speaker 5: All right, So Dana, what did you expect to hear?
Speaker 5: What are you going to be listening for from Walmart tomorrow?
Speaker 5: You know, is they report the results and you know,
Speaker 5: because we always feel like we can get a pretty
Speaker 5: good sense of how the consumer's doing out there.
Speaker 6: That's what I want to listen for. I want to
Speaker 6: hear how the consumers do them. I want to hear
Speaker 6: how they're planning inventory. I want to hear about category performance,
Speaker 6: discretionary versus essentials. I want to hear about costs. How
Speaker 6: are they managing labor costs, remodels they're remodeling stores. What
Speaker 6: are they seeing on those remodels. I want to hear
Speaker 6: about e commerce, and I want to hear food and
Speaker 6: gros rate versus the other categories. I think there's a
Speaker 6: lot to learn about the overall consumer environment from Walmart
Speaker 6: Trace tomorrow.
Speaker 2: H Dana. One final question here, Thank you so much
Speaker 2: for being with us. What the market's moving? We got
Speaker 2: to migrate to market market chat Dana. Which part of
Speaker 2: retail is the greatest opportunity three years out? Is it luxury?
Speaker 2: Is it the beleaguered middle ground? What's the part where
Speaker 2: you say, thirty six months from now, this is going
Speaker 2: to provide total return.
Speaker 6: I think luxury will provide total return. I think the
Speaker 6: Chinese will come back to spending. I also think the
Speaker 6: strength of off price and the continued share gains they have,
Speaker 6: I think it was a continued opportunity there, Dana, Tom's
Speaker 6: not the brand.
Speaker 2: I got eight more questions about the time. We got
Speaker 2: to get you back here soon as well. Else see
Speaker 2: the Telsey Advisory Group. Maybe we'll touch on luxury with
Speaker 2: their next time around. We had to get our surveillance
Speaker 2: meme correspondent to bring him in. He's been such he's
Speaker 2: just so in demand by the media. It took us
Speaker 2: days to get it. You know, why did you bring
Speaker 2: in our victim?
Speaker 4: Maybe he became a star along with his other meme stocks.
Speaker 4: Back in the day he study the kids.
Speaker 2: They got their laptops up trying to make a trade
Speaker 2: after they talked.
Speaker 5: To right the pride of Syracuse Belly Lipschultz, Market's reporter
Speaker 5: for Bloomberg newsh.
Speaker 4: What's going on? Are we back?
Speaker 5: I kind of understood the meme stock phenomenon of twenty
Speaker 5: twenty one. People locked down in basements stiinless money, trading
Speaker 5: stocks to have fun.
Speaker 4: What's driving it today? Do you think?
Speaker 7: Well, so today we're excluding today looking at the last
Speaker 7: three days. I wrote a story yesterday about how the
Speaker 7: fingerprints of momentum quants are kind of all over this
Speaker 7: And when I look at the retail flows on platforms
Speaker 7: like Fidelities and interactive brokers, more sell orders of game
Speaker 7: Stop than to buy. Like investors who bought the stock
Speaker 7: over the last three years and held onto the shares.
Speaker 7: They's selling pressure there that didn't exist back in twenty
Speaker 7: twenty one, when short interest was one hundred and forty percent.
Speaker 7: Now it's close to twenty five percent. So the dynamics
Speaker 7: are very different now than they were back in twenty
Speaker 7: twenty one.
Speaker 2: What did Hello Kitty do?
Speaker 8: Raring Kitty?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 2: Sorry, right, come out at ten o'clock. They know what
Speaker 2: you're talking about. I have no clue. What did Hello
Speaker 2: Kitty do?
Speaker 7: The Roaring Kitty ex account posted a meme on Sunday night, which,
Speaker 7: essentially reading between the lines and looking at what the
Speaker 7: meme stands for is essentially getting locked into a game.
Speaker 7: So the picture was a character or a drawing leaning
Speaker 7: back and.
Speaker 8: Pushing forward, heating forward. That jump started, that sent the mark.
Speaker 2: We tear apart short sellers out touting their shorts. They're Unamerican,
Speaker 2: they're illegal. Why is this any different going long than
Speaker 2: the short seller's getting beat up?
Speaker 8: Not really.
Speaker 7: I mean that's kind of the thing, Tom, when you
Speaker 7: look at the different arguments around different stocks. Everyone has
Speaker 7: their own case to be made. So the fact that
Speaker 7: a person on Twitter Free world only is posting memes
Speaker 7: NonStop and stitch together videos and the stock react.
Speaker 2: To Neil Young's next song, meming in a Free World Billy.
Speaker 5: So again, let's go back to who's buying this stuff?
Speaker 5: If it isn't you know the kid in his basement
Speaker 5: with his computer. Do we get a sense of who's buying?
Speaker 5: Because I saw some real volume trade over the past
Speaker 5: fday's tens of millions of shares.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 7: When I talk to people who advise hedge funds, they
Speaker 7: say that the blueprint and kind of the playbook was
Speaker 7: laid out in twenty twenty one, that some of those
Speaker 7: momentum quants who trade strictly based on trading volumes and
Speaker 7: momentum are getting in and out of the stock. That's
Speaker 7: why you're seeing so much money being traded. Because again
Speaker 7: when I look at Fidelity data, for example, back in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty one, by orders, we're outstripping those of cell
Speaker 7: like at a thirty to one clip. Wow, they're more
Speaker 7: cells than buys right now on So it's very different.
Speaker 2: I got two questions. First, it's technical for those fancy
Speaker 2: heads from people, What is the setup that they're using
Speaker 2: to take fifty dollars a year? It doesn't matter the stock.
Speaker 2: Are they going long to fifty one. Are they looking
Speaker 2: for fifty two? Are they trading in pennies decimals?
Speaker 7: I think everyone has their own different strategy, and so
Speaker 7: I think for the most part, the idea is it
Speaker 7: sounds super elementary buying, but gets buying. So you buy
Speaker 7: the stock and then see the next momentum fund buys
Speaker 7: the stock. So then you already have plugged into your algorithm.
Speaker 7: You buy it, for your example, at fifty and then
Speaker 7: you take in that profit at fifty two. But if
Speaker 7: you have your computers reading that the stock's going to
Speaker 7: keep going, then you wait for a cell signal then
Speaker 7: to get out. So they're buying early and selling early.
Speaker 2: Bill Gross, we published today that my good friend Bill
Speaker 2: Gross is out, and I'm gonna explain to slowly folks.
Speaker 2: He's doing options where he's writing them out, taking in
Speaker 2: a pre looking at the idiot volatility and hoping that
Speaker 2: the stock will go down. Did I do that? Okay?
Speaker 7: That for the most part he's hoping that the stock
Speaker 7: trade's flat. Okay, So so for he's doing that for
Speaker 7: both GameStop and MC. He did it for Trump Media.
Speaker 7: It's really and when we were when I was talking
Speaker 7: to him through one of his pr people basically saying
Speaker 7: the expectation is that there's enough money that you can
Speaker 7: take both sides of the trade as long as it
Speaker 7: doesn't plunge or absolutely rip.
Speaker 8: Again, he's just taking cash, just.
Speaker 2: Taking in the premium while the children play.
Speaker 5: Exactly, Okay, So let's all right, that's enough for the
Speaker 5: meme stocks. Your other meetings is IPOs. We heard from
Speaker 5: some CEOs this week from around the world speaking that
Speaker 5: they're pretty optimistic that the IPAL market this year is
Speaker 5: better and they expected to remain pretty solid.
Speaker 4: Tell us about the IPAL market.
Speaker 5: This year, what have we seen so far, how's the volume,
Speaker 5: how's business and then what's the outlook.
Speaker 7: Everything has to be better that when you're coming off
Speaker 7: the worst year in more than twelve years. So we've
Speaker 7: seen volumes for the most part. Taking up the comps
Speaker 7: actually got a little bit more difficult because this time
Speaker 7: last year Janj's ken View carve out happened. That price
Speaker 7: a few billion dollars in paper, but we've seen three
Speaker 7: deals greater than a billion dollars. Viking Holdings luxury cruise
Speaker 7: line has done quite well, up seventeen percent from offer price.
Speaker 7: Omor Sports, which was hotly debated up about sixteen percent
Speaker 7: from that price, and then Caspy, which is a Kazakhstan
Speaker 7: app A lot of debate around that. But we've seen
Speaker 7: Reddit and Rubric and ul Solutions, who makes the does
Speaker 7: safety testing, a number of kind of companies coming to
Speaker 7: market and for the most part.
Speaker 8: Being well received.
Speaker 7: And we've seen a number of companies considering whether they
Speaker 7: want to go now or wait until after?
Speaker 2: Are we back to our profits or ibitar we're blind
Speaker 2: to that. They're just looking at gross gross growth.
Speaker 8: Now so far removed from that.
Speaker 7: And that's the big issue when you talked to venture
Speaker 7: capitalists is that they have a lot of companies that
Speaker 7: they need to get out of and start to take
Speaker 7: return money to their LPU, and the market's not ready
Speaker 7: for that.
Speaker 2: Who decides the next meme stock? Who chooses? I mean
Speaker 2: I looked at like fifteen names and there really is
Speaker 2: there's no correlation, Paul that I can see why in there?
Speaker 7: Well, that's and this is this is where the.
Speaker 8: Existential debate of a memestock comes back.
Speaker 7: Like AMC and GameStop, bed Bathroom Beyond back in the day,
Speaker 7: I think we're true memestocks. Heavily shorted companies that were
Speaker 7: rallying just because people posted actual memes on.
Speaker 8: The internet bed bath and beyond robin Hood.
Speaker 7: Some of those are heavily shorted names that are just
Speaker 7: getting your typical short squeeze and maybe a gamma squeeze
Speaker 7: if people are flipping out of the money call options.
Speaker 7: But it's not what I would classify as a company.
Speaker 2: If I say gamma squeeze, they put me in the
Speaker 2: Survin Boxy Bailey Trots the King's English guy.
Speaker 4: All right, So what's uh, what's next here on your beat?
Speaker 4: Because I'm thinking.
Speaker 5: Spin offs, IPO, SPACs, I mean, what's the next big thing?
Speaker 7: I think people more and more conversations are centering around
Speaker 7: spinouts and car outs. A number of public companies considering
Speaker 7: IPO in particular units. We saw and we have seen
Speaker 7: recently and continuing over the last few years, investors wanting
Speaker 7: skinnier companies and more focused stories.
Speaker 8: So we saw that with J and J Kenview.
Speaker 7: We saw that with a number of companies Kellogg creating
Speaker 7: Kelenova and.
Speaker 8: W K Kellogg or yeah, w K kel Logg.
Speaker 7: So breakups are back in vogue, and that's one of
Speaker 7: the things we've been watching.
Speaker 8: When we talk to em bankers.
Speaker 2: So then he's I get it. He's migrating from our
Speaker 2: meme reporter over to our matrimonial reporter.
Speaker 4: That's right, you say, Rory, Yes, I know too bad.
Speaker 2: Bailey Lipshalaltz have that for you, the breakups reporter for Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: I learned a lot. Seriously, it's great. I don't get it.
Speaker 2: I just totally don't get a Bailey thank you. In
Speaker 2: the King's English Year, your data. Look at the front
Speaker 2: pages brought you buy the Lisa Mateo Show, the Star
Speaker 2: the Lisa Mateo Show. With our newspaper study, what.
Speaker 4: Do you got?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 1: All right, this one stood out to me. It is
Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journal cheating on workplace drug tests
Speaker 1: hitting the highest.
Speaker 4: Rate in more than thirty years.
Speaker 1: Okay, this was a study Quest Diagnostics. They took urine
Speaker 1: samples from twenty twenty three. About thirty one thousand drug
Speaker 1: screens out of five point five million shown signs of cheating.
Speaker 1: So the percentage of samples that came back positive about
Speaker 1: the same. But people are tampering with it. Mar you
Speaker 1: know marijuana laws have changed things like that. How they're cheating,
Speaker 1: they're using someone else's urine, they're using animal synthetic urine
Speaker 1: that you can actually buy online, and they're using that
Speaker 1: so in valid tests up forty three compared to the yearboot.
Speaker 5: You were that, so you can they don't test for
Speaker 5: weed anymore, right, because that's legalized.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 1: It depends different states, that's what its so different.
Speaker 4: States government rules. I see what's going on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's why there's these gray area now, so
Speaker 1: more people are cheating, cheating on the tests what they're finding.
Speaker 1: So I thought that was interesting because this shows the
Speaker 1: workplace is kind of changing too in that way.
Speaker 4: Yep, absolutely, sorry, interesting stuff.
Speaker 1: So you were talking about the entertainment, right, so I
Speaker 1: want to keep playing on this and streaming services, Tom,
Speaker 1: you're gonna like this. The latest Nielsen data shows YouTube
Speaker 1: giving streaming some competition for viewership. Okay, so it shows
Speaker 1: ten percent of the time Americans spent in front of
Speaker 1: TV screens last month was on its YouTube smart TV app.
Speaker 1: The top position went to Disney. Actually Disney plus Hulu,
Speaker 1: ESPN all the same. They took eleven point five percent.
Speaker 1: So you had you had you know, YouTube at ten,
Speaker 1: you had Disney at eleven point five. I mean two
Speaker 1: You see the difference.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I read it so carefully and it's really coming
Speaker 2: on and what's amazing, and we're living this every day
Speaker 2: folks out on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast is the
Speaker 2: combination of YouTube It's where we are, folks, and YouTube TV,
Speaker 2: which is totally in Paul. That's sports like like they've
Speaker 2: got come on. They got the money to get that
Speaker 2: NBA dealer.
Speaker 1: Partner and they have films, produce series, sports, live events.
Speaker 4: Like what do you have.
Speaker 5: What was most important to me on this story was
Speaker 5: that for the first time ever, Nielsen is tracking broadcast viewership,
Speaker 5: cable viewership and streaming viewership.
Speaker 4: I took them fifteen.
Speaker 5: Years and now we're there, and so now they can
Speaker 5: do it by the show. So what the streaming services
Speaker 5: are saying to the actors and the writers, I'm going
Speaker 5: to pay you based upon the viewership to your show
Speaker 5: because I can now measure and.
Speaker 2: Just as you know, everybody knows this, but the search engine,
Speaker 2: the knowledge base of YouTube is scared. I was searching
Speaker 2: David Sandborn for our songs for the day and instantly
Speaker 2: I head up all this stuff that Google found of
Speaker 2: David Sandborn in the Great Sex. What do you got next?
Speaker 1: So the streaming services are actually up in the end.
Speaker 1: They're trying to offer content from top celebrities, musicians, comedy.
Speaker 1: So Walt Disney came out and they said their streaming
Speaker 1: platforms added Bruce Bringsteen to list of artists that are
Speaker 1: producing shows. So his documentary is going to be out October.
Speaker 1: We're on Disney Plus and Hulu. But Disney's they've already had,
Speaker 1: you know, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, they've done Billy I yet Bungo, Yeah,
Speaker 1: not on but yep, yep, and then and it's not
Speaker 1: just music music ardens. Comedians are big too, drawing in crowds.
Speaker 1: So Hulu has acquired the rights first santi comedian Jim Gaffigan,
Speaker 1: who's really popular and hilarious. But so his uh show
Speaker 1: The Skinny that's going to debut November twenty second. But
Speaker 1: it just shows how much there there's grambling to.
Speaker 4: Like would I would argue it doesn't exist. It does
Speaker 4: not exist. Eric, we got to.
Speaker 2: Get Maffa, We're gonna get Rich Greenfield on, we got
Speaker 2: to get some bran, We got to get some of
Speaker 2: these animals.
Speaker 4: I still pay Cable.
Speaker 2: I don't know why you got one.
Speaker 8: Yeah, one more. Tom Brady's roast.
Speaker 1: Do you remember that?
Speaker 4: Right? It was on Netflix? Okay, I missed this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the most watched TV program on Netflix the last
Speaker 1: week was his roast. Now he's saying he kind of
Speaker 1: regrets it a little bit because of the way it
Speaker 1: impacted his kids. He was thinking about that, some of
Speaker 1: the jokes and some of the things like that. Nothing
Speaker 1: about his kids, but you know, they were poking fun
Speaker 1: you divorce and things like that.
Speaker 4: So he was actually one.
Speaker 1: Of the producers, the executive producer of it. So now
Speaker 1: we're kind of backtracking.
Speaker 4: Question just how much was he paid for that? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Now I think people say fifty million dollars? Really, yeah,
Speaker 4: I have not five vote five. I don't know.
Speaker 5: But what would make Tom Brady go through that, go
Speaker 5: through this? And I'm not even sure if Tom Brady
Speaker 5: fifty millions worth it? But I mean he did it
Speaker 5: the knucklehead, some dealer I remember.
Speaker 2: I mean, you guys are too young to remember this,
Speaker 2: but I remember the rage of the Rose years ago,
Speaker 2: like Don Rickles and Dean Martin and I used to
Speaker 2: sit there and look at him and go, why are
Speaker 2: they doing this? I never got it. I'm sure we
Speaker 2: have people listening and watching who love these things? And
Speaker 2: I just Damien loved it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Damien was all over, But.
Speaker 2: I just I never got him when I was a kid.
Speaker 2: And you know, like I can sympathize with mister Brady.
Speaker 1: It's like whole bullying session.
Speaker 2: You got one more or what I've done?
Speaker 4: No, we are down for today.
Speaker 2: Lisa Teo, thank you so much. On the newspapers there,
Speaker 2: don't forget folks a Lisa Matteo's show, the Upfront. Are
Speaker 2: they just they're on fire? Yeah, I mean Lisa Matteo
Speaker 2: Upfront are Oh yeah.
Speaker 1: My family always says we should be a.
Speaker 2: The merch bag. Yeah, the swag bag for the Lisa
Speaker 2: Matteo Show.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 2: But Kenny yogurt you know, that's what you get, yogurt
Speaker 2: and spoon. Thank you, Lisa Matteo, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: The newspapers today. Reddy Green on the screen, Paul, this
Speaker 2: is exciting thirty five minutes. It's like a job for report.
Speaker 4: This is important.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think you know if you're the Fed watcher,
Speaker 5: it's it's where it is. Inflation January February March a
Speaker 5: little bit hotter than expected, and what are we going
Speaker 5: to see in April here because a lot of folks
Speaker 5: would like to see a little bit of a cooling
Speaker 5: in that inflation print. Maybe give the Fed a little
Speaker 5: bit more leeway to cut rates.
Speaker 2: Do you know that our newspaper report is so popular
Speaker 2: they're making a podcast out of.
Speaker 4: The least Wow.
Speaker 2: That you should see it, folks. I mean, seriously, how
Speaker 2: she puts this together. She's got like twenty newspapers, she
Speaker 2: puts it together. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing
Speaker 2: you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit
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