WEBVTT - Breaking Down CPI and Retail Sales in Key Eco Data Week 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.119 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.800 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Now we're 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.880 thrilled to have for you, and you know I call 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:54.040 it from October to October's ago the Yardnni and Kompora 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.080 Market Ralph and Kampora, the technician and ed Yard Denny 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:01.840 of Yale with economics and markets called this great bullmarket 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:04.760 and we're thrilled at mister Ardenny, Doctor Eodenny could be 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:09.000 in our studios today. Where is your SMP target And 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:14.080 with the report of disinflation and sluggish retail sales, does 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.880 that make you move it up? Can we make some 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.160 news here on SMP six thousand? 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:22.280 Well, I've been actually getting a lot of people asking me, 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:24.160 am I going to raise my numbers? And I thought 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:26.560 my numbers are pretty aggressive about a year ago. 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:28.600 Yeah, but you're on surveillance now, so we got to 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:29.080 make some news. 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.240 Well we were fifty. You know, my target is still 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.480 fifty four hundred. I still use it, but it's a bullmarket, 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.319 you know. I can't time it exactly and precisely, but 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:41.040 I think we're heading towards six thousand by next year 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.840 and sixty five hundred the year after that. So that's 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:45.080 a twenty five percent increase. 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:47.360 My great theme, and I say this to the ds 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:51.320 Edyard Denny, ed Hymen and others. My mantra from my 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:56.480 father is corporations adapt and adjust. Right, How are corporations 0:01:56.560 --> 0:02:00.680 adapting and adjusting to ed Yard Denny's roaring twenties? 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.280 Well, I think you're seeing a tremendous amount of spending 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:07.360 on technology, not just number one. Well, you know, if 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:11.000 you look at capital spending in current dollars, fifty percent 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.480 of that now is going to technology capital spending. And 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:18.160 that's an understatement because it doesn't include things like trucks. 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.600 I mean, why would truck be you know it? Well, 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.560 the truck is the device, and the logistics software is 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.480 what runs it. There, everything's technology. So my pet theory 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:29.600 here is that when you look at the stock market, 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.400 you have to think of every stock as a technology company. 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.640 They're either making it or using it. If they're not 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:35.840 using it, they're going to lose it. 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:37.240 Yeah, that's a great point. 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.760 How can this retail sales number our Jersey was suggesting, 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.440 that's what the market's focusing on. Again, the Retail Sales 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.959 Control Group came in it negative zero point three percent. 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:50.200 Consensus was where positive zero point one percent last period 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.000 was actually one percent, So. 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:53.880 A real fall off there. What's your view of the 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:55.760 consumer ad and how do you think that the well 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:56.560 looking at. 0:02:56.480 --> 0:03:00.160 The conser I think it's important to remember when the these 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:04.080 numbers come out that it's merchandise, it's goods. And what's 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:08.240 been interesting is we had this buying binge coming out 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.800 of the pandemic lockdowns and people couldn't buy services, so 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:15.800 they bought a tremendous amount of goods. And then they 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:19.639 they didn't stop buying goods, they just didn't increase their purchases. 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.680 So purchases of goods is still at an all time record, 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.440 I had just been kind of sluggish flat for the 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:29.440 past couple of years. Meanwhile, services is absolutely booming, as 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.560 we all know if you go to the airport for example, 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:33.279 or restaurants with you Amana. 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.240 Grey here in this room, folks ed Yard Denny with 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.240 this here with futures up twenty seven off of sluggish 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:42.800 retail report in Netflix right now, there's this spectacular black 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:45.920 and white series called Ripley. I saw it, you thought yes, 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.560 another one early in it is the communication that you 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:53.400 and I knew years ago pre technology of the mom 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:58.280 Blanc meister Struck one nine really nine hundred dollars. It's 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:01.200 a big, ugly mud block that only the rich kids had. 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.960 That's when we were in school. Now we've got yesterday, 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.760 Google coming out right with this incredible and gene Monster 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.280 was plus plus on the new search to new AAI 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:17.520 the technology in your controversial call of Roaring twenties? Is 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:21.560 it about AI? Do you believe in AI moving the 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:22.960 Dow above forty thousand. 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.360 I think so much money is being spent on AI 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.840 that a good percentage of that is going to pay off. 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.719 I think there is a certain amount of hype. I 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:35.160 think open AI where it's open to the internet. I 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:36.800 think that's going to turn out to be a very 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.800 big disappointment. It was for me when I signed up 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.839 for it and hoped that it could write my daily briefings, 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:45.640 and I had to spend the whole day correcting its errors. 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.039 But I think as long as companies put in just 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.359 their company data, it's going to turn out to be 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:54.400 a supercharge. And nobody's even talking about supercomputers anymore because 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.040 the GPUs, when you pile them all together, they seem 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.520 to be fast do the job. They seem to be 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.719 fast enough. So look, I think the stock market started 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:06.839 to discount the roaring twenty twenty scenario on November thirtieth, 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:12.040 twenty twenty two, when OpenAI introduced chat GPT and now 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.200 all of a sudden, utilities our AI plays. Copper is 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:16.000 an AI play. 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.920 So I look at eminem theory, you know, and I've 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:21.800 never been a big fan of the certitude of it. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.159 I think it's really squishing. There's a lot of problems, 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:26.719 but the bottom line is on use of capital. The 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:31.200 new rage is again share buybacks. They're exploding. Ediard Denny 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.160 on the support that share buybacks give to the bid 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.000 is that constructive or is it ephemeral? 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:41.960 Well, it is what it is. I think it's real money, 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:44.599 and the money is going to buy these stocks back. 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:48.719 So I think it's certainly another factor behind the stock 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:49.799 market doing quite well. 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.880 Edgar Denny with us with your Denny research. He just 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.280 had a new hire. We'll talk about that later. Tom 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:58.200 Keen and Paul swenia across this nation with features of 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.920 twenty five. He's going to get us down forty thousand today. 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:02.800 I think probby he. 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:05.120 And Alex Steele will see that later on. Paul a 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.560 ten year real yield down to two point zero seven percent. 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.040 Yep, we've had to pull back again at the ten year. 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:13.520 Just trading here for spot three six on a ten 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:17.159 year ed. So, are you surprised that this s and P. 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.080 Five hundred that this stock market has done as well 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:21.240 as it has this year up ten percent or so 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.600 in an environment where the rate cut environment has really 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:25.359 become barrassed. 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.840 She went from six cuts today, one or two today, 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:28.360 whatever it is. 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:32.240 No, I'm very encouraged by that. It shows that the 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:34.560 economy can live with these interest rates, the stock market 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.080 could live with these interest rates. These are normal interest rates. 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:40.400 The fed has really normalized. We're back to where we 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:45.400 were before the insanity period, from the Great Financial Crisis 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.280 to the Great virus crisis. So normal is good. 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:50.960 Normal is good. So it's been earnings, I mean earning. 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:52.080 Earnings are doing just fine. 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:55.280 Okay, Ed, you'r dourney with us, folks. We're going to 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.919 continue daing to Telsea on deck here in about fifteen minutes. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.120 Generous of Ed. You're doney to be with us this morning. 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.200 Our economic indicators and they move the market this morning. 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:08.200 Thank you to Commonwealth for their commitment to Bloomberg surveillance. 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:11.520 The indicators brought you by Commonwealth supporting more than two 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:16.320 thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:21.360 grow thriving business. Commonwealth go where you grow. Visitcommonwealth dot 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.360 com to learn more. For those of you not in 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.040 the game, why are we with Ed Yardenny because he 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:31.600 made an incredibly lonely fundamental economic call two octobers ago 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.720 to say you should own equities in America. And he 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:39.040 does this always with a more long term basis as well. 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.600 I want you to speak to the trillions of money 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.480 that's out there right now, and yet it's joined five 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.320 percent and there's a taxes or whatever you know, have 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:51.280 to go into the net net. But the bottom line 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:55.360 is they are they read ed Yardnny or listen to 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:59.280 you intrepidation give them the confidence to make the first 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:00.640 marginal investment. 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:03.640 Well, there's a tremendous amount of money and money market 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.920 mutual funds, as you said, and people have been very 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:11.080 comfortable earning four and a half five percent in these instruments. 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:15.360 But that is kind of a it is a short 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.000 term instrument. It's a short term place. It's not a 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:22.160 long term bet on prosperity, which is what equities are, 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:26.920 and even some corporate bonds certainly are a bet on 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:32.120 long term prosperity in the economy. So I think I've 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:37.760 got nothing positive to say or negative to say about 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.400 people who feel that they want to not take very 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:42.480 much risk. I think, by the way, it's great that 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:44.800 interest rates are back to levels or people who don't 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.160 want to take risks don't want to be in the 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:47.640 market Sweeny's. 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:48.880 Doing, Yeah, I mean up and coupons. 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:53.280 So I mean, what sectors in the equity market do 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:55.599 well in an environment? Where are the ten years? I 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:57.199 don't know, four and a half percent. 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.600 I think the answer is becoming all of them. Who 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:03.080 would have thought that the utilities are our plays on 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:08.800 artificial intelligence, and suddenly copper is is another way to 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:15.480 play information technology. So I've been recommending information technology, financials industrials, 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:20.319 but the market is clearly broadening at back to I 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:24.240 think we're seeing some excitement in smid caps, even emerging markets. 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.000 I mean, we've got global stock markets at an all 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:30.320 time record high excluding the US, and the US will 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:32.920 be at a record high very shortly on Friday. 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:36.040 And folks like you know full disclosure. I mean, everybody 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:38.760 that comes into us, we protect the copyright of all 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.360 their work, as we do with that your den. But 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:44.800 I really want to emphasize that your Denny Research has 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:49.320 very accessible short notes. I mean it's a price of 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:52.640 like two martinis. You know, it's like well, okay at 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:56.040 the Carlisle. But you know your Denny's live in large 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.480 with some great publications, and I urge you to look 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:03.160 at them if you design concision in your reading. The 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:07.960 doom Clue publishes on Friday like clockwork to get through 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:12.520 the entertainment of the weekend. They're humbled. What do you 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.600 say to the doom What did the doom Crew get 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:19.040 wrong to me on an isl on basis is they're 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.880 completely focused on the parlor game of the FED, and 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:27.000 they're not focused on the dynamics of the broader world, 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:31.280 which is the real economy, which was gospel at Yale 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:32.080 a few years ago. 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.080 Yeah, I mean, I had to unlearn a lot of 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:38.240 things I learned at Yale. Quite honestly. It's very canesy 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:43.400 and in its orientation. But I've become, like the FED, 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.280 very data dependent, and I try to look at the 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.800 big developments, and I think where a lot of economists 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.880 missed is the demographics. We've got baby boomers that are 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:56.120 retiring and they don't have a lot of them don't 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:59.160 have a mortgage, they don't have college tuition payments anymore. 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.880 They just have lots of time on their hand, and 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:07.679 they've accumulated enough money to go on cruises and go 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.920 to restaurants and check into the hospitals every now and 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.400 then just to make sure they can keep going. 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.240 Exactly looking at us, I don't know, you know, I 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:17.840 don't know. 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:19.840 I got to do one more question here, and this 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:24.160 is an audible folks, on my part, we had surveillance 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.600 always look at the great journalists run even over the desk. 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.600 Star Keepney has been on fire. I should say there 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:34.280 was a guy at the Journal named Wallerstein who did 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.319 some great, great work on macro. Right, he's died and 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.679 gone to heaven and he gets to work for ed 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.400 Yard Denny. How would God's name did you get Eric 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.320 Wallerstein to lose the dark trade and come over and 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.240 make it, you know, get a real job. 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.160 I offered him a job. He took it and it 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.720 was a done deal, like an. 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:54.280 What's he going to do for you? 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.439 Well, he's going to do everything that I do. But 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.920 his background is he worked on the fed's Open market desk, 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.000 so he's a real whiz kid when it comes to 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.480 the fixed income markets. So he'll certainly give us a 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.440 lot more depth than that in that area. But other 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.040 than that, you know, all hands on deck and he's 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:13.600 another great hand on deck. 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.800 Let him go to the Lisa Matteo Media School and 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.319 then we'd love to have him in Doctor Yard Denny, 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:21.600 Thank you so much. And can I say this, I'm 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.280 gonna put Ben Laydler in this group, Ralph and Kompora. 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:27.400 There's a few others, but ed Yard Denny, like nobody 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.160 has called this great bow market of October of I 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.360 think it's two thousandial securities. 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.319 I mean the CJ. 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.520 Lawrence was green ink, right, it was like a green ink. 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:42.760 You'd sit there, got the same thing. 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.520 With a pencil in your hand, and Yard Denny's got 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:47.880 the same c J. Lawrence and it was like, you know, 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.800 Ed Hyman like sort of invented, and Yard Denny came 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.800 along and gave it this whole twisted twist. It was 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:55.760 better when it was printed. Am I right? 0:12:56.520 --> 0:13:00.199 I don't know. We're high tech now, so I'm not going. 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.600 To agree with that. Okay, Edgiar Denny, thank you so much. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.719 I can you thank you for your support of what 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:18.680 we do. We go to Dana Telsey of the Telsey 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.760 Advisory Group. She's been waiting listening to Eddie R. Denny 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:26.520 as well. Dana, a pretty moldy control group. Is that 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.360 a trend? Is it? Is it a weaker retail sales 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.960 trend that you and Joe Feldman have to work with? 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:36.400 Yes, it is. It is a weaker retail sales environment. 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.240 Do you have a consumer who's much more cautious and 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.200 discerning than they've ever been in the past, you're seeing 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:46.079 greater clarity to margins and profits than your are to sales, 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:50.079 given that inventory levels or lean and the consumer in 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.680 all income levels have moderated their spend of touch certainly 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.040 what you and I talk about Tom with the uber 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:00.800 high end like your mess of the world continue to spend, 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:06.080 but beyond that we've seen will be definitely more cautious 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.480 in what they're spending. And retailers are aware of it, right, 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:09.920 I mean. 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.640 I mean Red Lobster with some challenges to say the least, 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:14.760 even though Mike McKee is you know, Mike mcke's are 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.840 like three days a week having the lobster in stake special. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:21.280 Of course there some byproducts in the steak. But are 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.600 we going to see a workout here in retail, in 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:28.240 middle retail, the middle department stores in the lower ranges, 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.600 Dana Telsea, are we going to see a rationalization of stores? 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.640 I think we've been seeing that. Look at Macy's announcements 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.600 of their store closures that's out there. You haven't had 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.560 many companies on the watch list, but you have had 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:46.000 announcements of closures. Ninety nine cents only stores going away 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:50.520 expressed closing a bunch of their stores, So it's getting 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:54.280 more productive. But the interesting thing for all the closures, 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:57.400 there is more demand for space than there is supply. 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.760 I'm sure if you walk around Manhattan, we're seeing a 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:05.480 pickup in occupancy. We're seeing more news stores. Come. This 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:09.640 weekend is the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, where 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:13.160 the retail real estate audience gets together, and I think 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:15.760 we're going to continue to hear of more demand than 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:20.320 supply because retailers are investing in those footprints, because consumers 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.720 want that social entertainment of going to a store, and 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:25.640 they could buy online and pick a store. 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.880 Also, I mean, Paul, the retails convention, that's like the 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:32.080 plumber's convention. How about that square footage at the Short 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:32.640 Hills mall? 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:33.520 Exactly? 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.040 All right, So Dana, what did you expect to hear? 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.000 What are you going to be listening for from Walmart tomorrow? 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:40.760 You know, is they report the results and you know, 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:42.480 because we always feel like we can get a pretty 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.280 good sense of how the consumer's doing out there. 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:47.840 That's what I want to listen for. I want to 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.280 hear how the consumers do them. I want to hear 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:54.200 how they're planning inventory. I want to hear about category performance, 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:58.360 discretionary versus essentials. I want to hear about costs. How 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:02.640 are they managing labor costs, remodels they're remodeling stores. What 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:05.320 are they seeing on those remodels. I want to hear 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.320 about e commerce, and I want to hear food and 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:11.440 gros rate versus the other categories. I think there's a 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.680 lot to learn about the overall consumer environment from Walmart 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:16.880 Trace tomorrow. 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.440 H Dana. One final question here, Thank you so much 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.600 for being with us. What the market's moving? We got 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:26.320 to migrate to market market chat Dana. Which part of 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:31.600 retail is the greatest opportunity three years out? Is it luxury? 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.960 Is it the beleaguered middle ground? What's the part where 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.640 you say, thirty six months from now, this is going 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:38.920 to provide total return. 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.720 I think luxury will provide total return. I think the 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.960 Chinese will come back to spending. I also think the 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.800 strength of off price and the continued share gains they have, 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.640 I think it was a continued opportunity there, Dana, Tom's 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:54.680 not the brand. 0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:57.000 I got eight more questions about the time. We got 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:00.360 to get you back here soon as well. Else see 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.680 the Telsey Advisory Group. Maybe we'll touch on luxury with 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:11.800 their next time around. We had to get our surveillance 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:16.640 meme correspondent to bring him in. He's been such he's 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.480 just so in demand by the media. It took us 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.040 days to get it. You know, why did you bring 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:21.680 in our victim? 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.200 Maybe he became a star along with his other meme stocks. 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.640 Back in the day he study the kids. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.760 They got their laptops up trying to make a trade 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:30.720 after they talked. 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:33.720 To right the pride of Syracuse Belly Lipschultz, Market's reporter 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.159 for Bloomberg newsh. 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:38.320 What's going on? Are we back? 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.280 I kind of understood the meme stock phenomenon of twenty 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:46.600 twenty one. People locked down in basements stiinless money, trading 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:47.520 stocks to have fun. 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:49.680 What's driving it today? Do you think? 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.080 Well, so today we're excluding today looking at the last 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:56.399 three days. I wrote a story yesterday about how the 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:59.439 fingerprints of momentum quants are kind of all over this 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.439 And when I look at the retail flows on platforms 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:06.200 like Fidelities and interactive brokers, more sell orders of game 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.800 Stop than to buy. Like investors who bought the stock 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:11.919 over the last three years and held onto the shares. 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:14.639 They's selling pressure there that didn't exist back in twenty 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:17.000 twenty one, when short interest was one hundred and forty percent. 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.520 Now it's close to twenty five percent. So the dynamics 0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:22.240 are very different now than they were back in twenty 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:22.679 twenty one. 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:23.720 What did Hello Kitty do? 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:25.480 Raring Kitty? 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:25.880 Oh? 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:30.479 Sorry, right, come out at ten o'clock. They know what 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:33.160 you're talking about. I have no clue. What did Hello 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:35.520 Kitty do? 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:40.879 The Roaring Kitty ex account posted a meme on Sunday night, which, 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.080 essentially reading between the lines and looking at what the 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.960 meme stands for is essentially getting locked into a game. 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:50.200 So the picture was a character or a drawing leaning 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:50.720 back and. 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:55.120 Pushing forward, heating forward. That jump started, that sent the mark. 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:59.640 We tear apart short sellers out touting their shorts. They're Unamerican, 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.760 they're illegal. Why is this any different going long than 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.040 the short seller's getting beat up? 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:06.480 Not really. 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:08.479 I mean that's kind of the thing, Tom, when you 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:13.040 look at the different arguments around different stocks. Everyone has 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.199 their own case to be made. So the fact that 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.640 a person on Twitter Free world only is posting memes 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.639 NonStop and stitch together videos and the stock react. 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.960 To Neil Young's next song, meming in a Free World Billy. 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:27.840 So again, let's go back to who's buying this stuff? 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.679 If it isn't you know the kid in his basement 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.640 with his computer. Do we get a sense of who's buying? 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:36.240 Because I saw some real volume trade over the past 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.080 fday's tens of millions of shares. 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:38.360 Yeah. 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:40.960 When I talk to people who advise hedge funds, they 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:43.960 say that the blueprint and kind of the playbook was 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:45.880 laid out in twenty twenty one, that some of those 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.080 momentum quants who trade strictly based on trading volumes and 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.080 momentum are getting in and out of the stock. That's 0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:53.480 why you're seeing so much money being traded. Because again 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.159 when I look at Fidelity data, for example, back in 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:58.760 twenty twenty one, by orders, we're outstripping those of cell 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:01.320 like at a thirty to one clip. Wow, they're more 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:04.879 cells than buys right now on So it's very different. 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:08.440 I got two questions. First, it's technical for those fancy 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.520 heads from people, What is the setup that they're using 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.040 to take fifty dollars a year? It doesn't matter the stock. 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.520 Are they going long to fifty one. Are they looking 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.880 for fifty two? Are they trading in pennies decimals? 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.520 I think everyone has their own different strategy, and so 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.520 I think for the most part, the idea is it 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:32.200 sounds super elementary buying, but gets buying. So you buy 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:34.800 the stock and then see the next momentum fund buys 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.320 the stock. So then you already have plugged into your algorithm. 0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:39.720 You buy it, for your example, at fifty and then 0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:41.520 you take in that profit at fifty two. But if 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:43.800 you have your computers reading that the stock's going to 0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:46.199