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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Now we're

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Speaker 2: thrilled to have for you, and you know I call

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Speaker 2: it from October to October's ago the Yardnni and Kompora

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Speaker 2: Market Ralph and Kampora, the technician and ed Yard Denny

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Speaker 2: of Yale with economics and markets called this great bullmarket

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Speaker 2: and we're thrilled at mister Ardenny, Doctor Eodenny could be

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Speaker 2: in our studios today. Where is your SMP target And

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Speaker 2: with the report of disinflation and sluggish retail sales, does

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Speaker 2: that make you move it up? Can we make some

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Speaker 2: news here on SMP six thousand?

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Speaker 3: Well, I've been actually getting a lot of people asking me,

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Speaker 3: am I going to raise my numbers? And I thought

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Speaker 3: my numbers are pretty aggressive about a year ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but you're on surveillance now, so we got to

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Speaker 2: make some news.

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Speaker 3: Well we were fifty. You know, my target is still

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Speaker 3: fifty four hundred. I still use it, but it's a bullmarket,

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Speaker 3: you know. I can't time it exactly and precisely, but

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Speaker 3: I think we're heading towards six thousand by next year

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Speaker 3: and sixty five hundred the year after that. So that's

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Speaker 3: a twenty five percent increase.

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Speaker 2: My great theme, and I say this to the ds

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Speaker 2: Edyard Denny, ed Hymen and others. My mantra from my

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Speaker 2: father is corporations adapt and adjust. Right, How are corporations

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Speaker 2: adapting and adjusting to ed Yard Denny's roaring twenties?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you're seeing a tremendous amount of spending

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Speaker 3: on technology, not just number one. Well, you know, if

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Speaker 3: you look at capital spending in current dollars, fifty percent

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Speaker 3: of that now is going to technology capital spending. And

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Speaker 3: that's an understatement because it doesn't include things like trucks.

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Speaker 3: I mean, why would truck be you know it? Well,

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Speaker 3: the truck is the device, and the logistics software is

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Speaker 3: what runs it. There, everything's technology. So my pet theory

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Speaker 3: here is that when you look at the stock market,

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Speaker 3: you have to think of every stock as a technology company.

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Speaker 3: They're either making it or using it. If they're not

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Speaker 3: using it, they're going to lose it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great point.

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Speaker 5: How can this retail sales number our Jersey was suggesting,

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Speaker 5: that's what the market's focusing on. Again, the Retail Sales

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Speaker 5: Control Group came in it negative zero point three percent.

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Speaker 5: Consensus was where positive zero point one percent last period

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Speaker 5: was actually one percent, So.

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Speaker 4: A real fall off there. What's your view of the

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Speaker 4: consumer ad and how do you think that the well

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Speaker 4: looking at.

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Speaker 3: The conser I think it's important to remember when the these

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Speaker 3: numbers come out that it's merchandise, it's goods. And what's

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Speaker 3: been interesting is we had this buying binge coming out

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Speaker 3: of the pandemic lockdowns and people couldn't buy services, so

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Speaker 3: they bought a tremendous amount of goods. And then they

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Speaker 3: they didn't stop buying goods, they just didn't increase their purchases.

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Speaker 3: So purchases of goods is still at an all time record,

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Speaker 3: I had just been kind of sluggish flat for the

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Speaker 3: past couple of years. Meanwhile, services is absolutely booming, as

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Speaker 3: we all know if you go to the airport for example,

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Speaker 3: or restaurants with you Amana.

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Speaker 2: Grey here in this room, folks ed Yard Denny with

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Speaker 2: this here with futures up twenty seven off of sluggish

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Speaker 2: retail report in Netflix right now, there's this spectacular black

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Speaker 2: and white series called Ripley. I saw it, you thought yes,

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Speaker 2: another one early in it is the communication that you

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Speaker 2: and I knew years ago pre technology of the mom

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Speaker 2: Blanc meister Struck one nine really nine hundred dollars. It's

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Speaker 2: a big, ugly mud block that only the rich kids had.

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Speaker 2: That's when we were in school. Now we've got yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Google coming out right with this incredible and gene Monster

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Speaker 2: was plus plus on the new search to new AAI

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Speaker 2: the technology in your controversial call of Roaring twenties? Is

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Speaker 2: it about AI? Do you believe in AI moving the

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Speaker 2: Dow above forty thousand.

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Speaker 3: I think so much money is being spent on AI

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Speaker 3: that a good percentage of that is going to pay off.

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Speaker 3: I think there is a certain amount of hype. I

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Speaker 3: think open AI where it's open to the internet. I

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Speaker 3: think that's going to turn out to be a very

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Speaker 3: big disappointment. It was for me when I signed up

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Speaker 3: for it and hoped that it could write my daily briefings,

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Speaker 3: and I had to spend the whole day correcting its errors.

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Speaker 3: But I think as long as companies put in just

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Speaker 3: their company data, it's going to turn out to be

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Speaker 3: a supercharge. And nobody's even talking about supercomputers anymore because

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Speaker 3: the GPUs, when you pile them all together, they seem

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Speaker 3: to be fast do the job. They seem to be

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Speaker 3: fast enough. So look, I think the stock market started

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Speaker 3: to discount the roaring twenty twenty scenario on November thirtieth,

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, when OpenAI introduced chat GPT and now

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, utilities our AI plays. Copper is

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Speaker 3: an AI play.

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Speaker 2: So I look at eminem theory, you know, and I've

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Speaker 2: never been a big fan of the certitude of it.

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Speaker 2: I think it's really squishing. There's a lot of problems,

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Speaker 2: but the bottom line is on use of capital. The

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Speaker 2: new rage is again share buybacks. They're exploding. Ediard Denny

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Speaker 2: on the support that share buybacks give to the bid

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Speaker 2: is that constructive or is it ephemeral?

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Speaker 3: Well, it is what it is. I think it's real money,

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Speaker 3: and the money is going to buy these stocks back.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's certainly another factor behind the stock

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Speaker 3: market doing quite well.

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Speaker 2: Edgar Denny with us with your Denny research. He just

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Speaker 2: had a new hire. We'll talk about that later. Tom

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Speaker 2: Keen and Paul swenia across this nation with features of

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Speaker 2: twenty five. He's going to get us down forty thousand today.

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Speaker 4: I think probby he.

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Speaker 2: And Alex Steele will see that later on. Paul a

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Speaker 2: ten year real yield down to two point zero seven percent.

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Speaker 5: Yep, we've had to pull back again at the ten year.

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Speaker 5: Just trading here for spot three six on a ten

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Speaker 5: year ed. So, are you surprised that this s and P.

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Speaker 5: Five hundred that this stock market has done as well

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Speaker 5: as it has this year up ten percent or so

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Speaker 5: in an environment where the rate cut environment has really

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Speaker 5: become barrassed.

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Speaker 4: She went from six cuts today, one or two today,

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Speaker 4: whatever it is.

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Speaker 3: No, I'm very encouraged by that. It shows that the

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Speaker 3: economy can live with these interest rates, the stock market

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Speaker 3: could live with these interest rates. These are normal interest rates.

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Speaker 3: The fed has really normalized. We're back to where we

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Speaker 3: were before the insanity period, from the Great Financial Crisis

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Speaker 3: to the Great virus crisis. So normal is good.

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Speaker 4: Normal is good. So it's been earnings, I mean earning.

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Speaker 3: Earnings are doing just fine.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Ed, you'r dourney with us, folks. We're going to

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Speaker 2: continue daing to Telsea on deck here in about fifteen minutes.

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Speaker 2: Generous of Ed. You're doney to be with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: Our economic indicators and they move the market this morning.

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Speaker 2: Thank you to Commonwealth for their commitment to Bloomberg surveillance.

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Speaker 2: The indicators brought you by Commonwealth supporting more than two

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Speaker 2: thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to

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Speaker 2: grow thriving business. Commonwealth go where you grow. Visitcommonwealth dot

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Speaker 2: com to learn more. For those of you not in

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Speaker 2: the game, why are we with Ed Yardenny because he

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Speaker 2: made an incredibly lonely fundamental economic call two octobers ago

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Speaker 2: to say you should own equities in America. And he

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Speaker 2: does this always with a more long term basis as well.

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Speaker 2: I want you to speak to the trillions of money

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Speaker 2: that's out there right now, and yet it's joined five

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Speaker 2: percent and there's a taxes or whatever you know, have

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Speaker 2: to go into the net net. But the bottom line

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Speaker 2: is they are they read ed Yardnny or listen to

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Speaker 2: you intrepidation give them the confidence to make the first

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Speaker 2: marginal investment.

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Speaker 3: Well, there's a tremendous amount of money and money market

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Speaker 3: mutual funds, as you said, and people have been very

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Speaker 3: comfortable earning four and a half five percent in these instruments.

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Speaker 3: But that is kind of a it is a short

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Speaker 3: term instrument. It's a short term place. It's not a

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Speaker 3: long term bet on prosperity, which is what equities are,

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Speaker 3: and even some corporate bonds certainly are a bet on

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Speaker 3: long term prosperity in the economy. So I think I've

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Speaker 3: got nothing positive to say or negative to say about

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Speaker 3: people who feel that they want to not take very

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Speaker 3: much risk. I think, by the way, it's great that

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Speaker 3: interest rates are back to levels or people who don't

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Speaker 3: want to take risks don't want to be in the

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Speaker 3: market Sweeny's.

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Speaker 2: Doing, Yeah, I mean up and coupons.

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Speaker 5: So I mean, what sectors in the equity market do

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Speaker 5: well in an environment? Where are the ten years? I

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Speaker 5: don't know, four and a half percent.

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Speaker 3: I think the answer is becoming all of them. Who

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Speaker 3: would have thought that the utilities are our plays on

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Speaker 3: artificial intelligence, and suddenly copper is is another way to

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Speaker 3: play information technology. So I've been recommending information technology, financials industrials,

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Speaker 3: but the market is clearly broadening at back to I

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Speaker 3: think we're seeing some excitement in smid caps, even emerging markets.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we've got global stock markets at an all

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Speaker 3: time record high excluding the US, and the US will

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Speaker 3: be at a record high very shortly on Friday.

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Speaker 2: And folks like you know full disclosure. I mean, everybody

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Speaker 2: that comes into us, we protect the copyright of all

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Speaker 2: their work, as we do with that your den. But

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Speaker 2: I really want to emphasize that your Denny Research has

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Speaker 2: very accessible short notes. I mean it's a price of

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Speaker 2: like two martinis. You know, it's like well, okay at

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Speaker 2: the Carlisle. But you know your Denny's live in large

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Speaker 2: with some great publications, and I urge you to look

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Speaker 2: at them if you design concision in your reading. The

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Speaker 2: doom Clue publishes on Friday like clockwork to get through

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Speaker 2: the entertainment of the weekend. They're humbled. What do you

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Speaker 2: say to the doom What did the doom Crew get

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Speaker 2: wrong to me on an isl on basis is they're

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Speaker 2: completely focused on the parlor game of the FED, and

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Speaker 2: they're not focused on the dynamics of the broader world,

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Speaker 2: which is the real economy, which was gospel at Yale

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Speaker 2: a few years ago.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I had to unlearn a lot of

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Speaker 3: things I learned at Yale. Quite honestly. It's very canesy

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Speaker 3: and in its orientation. But I've become, like the FED,

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Speaker 3: very data dependent, and I try to look at the

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Speaker 3: big developments, and I think where a lot of economists

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Speaker 3: missed is the demographics. We've got baby boomers that are

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Speaker 3: retiring and they don't have a lot of them don't

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Speaker 3: have a mortgage, they don't have college tuition payments anymore.

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Speaker 3: They just have lots of time on their hand, and

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Speaker 3: they've accumulated enough money to go on cruises and go

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Speaker 3: to restaurants and check into the hospitals every now and

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Speaker 3: then just to make sure they can keep going.

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Speaker 4: Exactly looking at us, I don't know, you know, I

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Speaker 4: don't know.

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Speaker 2: I got to do one more question here, and this

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Speaker 2: is an audible folks, on my part, we had surveillance

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Speaker 2: always look at the great journalists run even over the desk.

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Speaker 2: Star Keepney has been on fire. I should say there

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Speaker 2: was a guy at the Journal named Wallerstein who did

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Speaker 2: some great, great work on macro. Right, he's died and

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Speaker 2: gone to heaven and he gets to work for ed

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Speaker 2: Yard Denny. How would God's name did you get Eric

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Speaker 2: Wallerstein to lose the dark trade and come over and

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Speaker 2: make it, you know, get a real job.

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Speaker 3: I offered him a job. He took it and it

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Speaker 3: was a done deal, like an.

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Speaker 2: What's he going to do for you?

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Speaker 3: Well, he's going to do everything that I do. But

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Speaker 3: his background is he worked on the fed's Open market desk,

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Speaker 3: so he's a real whiz kid when it comes to

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Speaker 3: the fixed income markets. So he'll certainly give us a

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Speaker 3: lot more depth than that in that area. But other

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Speaker 3: than that, you know, all hands on deck and he's

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Speaker 3: another great hand on deck.

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Speaker 2: Let him go to the Lisa Matteo Media School and

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Speaker 2: then we'd love to have him in Doctor Yard Denny,

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. And can I say this, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna put Ben Laydler in this group, Ralph and Kompora.

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Speaker 2: There's a few others, but ed Yard Denny, like nobody

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Speaker 2: has called this great bow market of October of I

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Speaker 2: think it's two thousandial securities.

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Speaker 4: I mean the CJ.

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Speaker 2: Lawrence was green ink, right, it was like a green ink.

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Speaker 3: You'd sit there, got the same thing.

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Speaker 2: With a pencil in your hand, and Yard Denny's got

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Speaker 2: the same c J. Lawrence and it was like, you know,

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Speaker 2: Ed Hyman like sort of invented, and Yard Denny came

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Speaker 2: along and gave it this whole twisted twist. It was

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Speaker 2: better when it was printed. Am I right?

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Speaker 3: I don't know. We're high tech now, so I'm not going.

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Speaker 2: To agree with that. Okay, Edgiar Denny, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: I can you thank you for your support of what

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Speaker 2: we do. We go to Dana Telsey of the Telsey

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Speaker 2: Advisory Group. She's been waiting listening to Eddie R. Denny

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Speaker 2: as well. Dana, a pretty moldy control group. Is that

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Speaker 2: a trend? Is it? Is it a weaker retail sales

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Speaker 2: trend that you and Joe Feldman have to work with?

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Speaker 6: Yes, it is. It is a weaker retail sales environment.

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Speaker 6: Do you have a consumer who's much more cautious and

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Speaker 6: discerning than they've ever been in the past, you're seeing

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Speaker 6: greater clarity to margins and profits than your are to sales,

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Speaker 6: given that inventory levels or lean and the consumer in

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Speaker 6: all income levels have moderated their spend of touch certainly

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Speaker 6: what you and I talk about Tom with the uber

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Speaker 6: high end like your mess of the world continue to spend,

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Speaker 6: but beyond that we've seen will be definitely more cautious

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Speaker 6: in what they're spending. And retailers are aware of it, right,

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Speaker 6: I mean.

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Speaker 2: I mean Red Lobster with some challenges to say the least,

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Speaker 2: even though Mike McKee is you know, Mike mcke's are

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Speaker 2: like three days a week having the lobster in stake special.

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Speaker 2: Of course there some byproducts in the steak. But are

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Speaker 2: we going to see a workout here in retail, in

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Speaker 2: middle retail, the middle department stores in the lower ranges,

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Speaker 2: Dana Telsea, are we going to see a rationalization of stores?

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Speaker 6: I think we've been seeing that. Look at Macy's announcements

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Speaker 6: of their store closures that's out there. You haven't had

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Speaker 6: many companies on the watch list, but you have had

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Speaker 6: announcements of closures. Ninety nine cents only stores going away

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Speaker 6: expressed closing a bunch of their stores, So it's getting

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Speaker 6: more productive. But the interesting thing for all the closures,

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Speaker 6: there is more demand for space than there is supply.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure if you walk around Manhattan, we're seeing a

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Speaker 6: pickup in occupancy. We're seeing more news stores. Come. This

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Speaker 6: weekend is the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, where

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Speaker 6: the retail real estate audience gets together, and I think

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Speaker 6: we're going to continue to hear of more demand than

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Speaker 6: supply because retailers are investing in those footprints, because consumers

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Speaker 6: want that social entertainment of going to a store, and

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Speaker 6: they could buy online and pick a store.

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Speaker 2: Also, I mean, Paul, the retails convention, that's like the

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Speaker 2: plumber's convention. How about that square footage at the Short

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Speaker 2: Hills mall?

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Speaker 4: Exactly?

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Speaker 5: All right, So Dana, what did you expect to hear?

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Speaker 5: What are you going to be listening for from Walmart tomorrow?

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Speaker 5: You know, is they report the results and you know,

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Speaker 5: because we always feel like we can get a pretty

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Speaker 5: good sense of how the consumer's doing out there.

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Speaker 6: That's what I want to listen for. I want to

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Speaker 6: hear how the consumers do them. I want to hear

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Speaker 6: how they're planning inventory. I want to hear about category performance,

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Speaker 6: discretionary versus essentials. I want to hear about costs. How

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Speaker 6: are they managing labor costs, remodels they're remodeling stores. What

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Speaker 6: are they seeing on those remodels. I want to hear

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Speaker 6: about e commerce, and I want to hear food and

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Speaker 6: gros rate versus the other categories. I think there's a

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Speaker 6: lot to learn about the overall consumer environment from Walmart

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Speaker 6: Trace tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: H Dana. One final question here, Thank you so much

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Speaker 2: for being with us. What the market's moving? We got

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Speaker 2: to migrate to market market chat Dana. Which part of

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Speaker 2: retail is the greatest opportunity three years out? Is it luxury?

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Speaker 2: Is it the beleaguered middle ground? What's the part where

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Speaker 2: you say, thirty six months from now, this is going

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Speaker 2: to provide total return.

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Speaker 6: I think luxury will provide total return. I think the

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Speaker 6: Chinese will come back to spending. I also think the

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Speaker 6: strength of off price and the continued share gains they have,

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Speaker 6: I think it was a continued opportunity there, Dana, Tom's

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Speaker 6: not the brand.

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Speaker 2: I got eight more questions about the time. We got

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Speaker 2: to get you back here soon as well. Else see

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Speaker 2: the Telsey Advisory Group. Maybe we'll touch on luxury with

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Speaker 2: their next time around. We had to get our surveillance

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Speaker 2: meme correspondent to bring him in. He's been such he's

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Speaker 2: just so in demand by the media. It took us

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Speaker 2: days to get it. You know, why did you bring

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Speaker 2: in our victim?

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Speaker 4: Maybe he became a star along with his other meme stocks.

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Speaker 4: Back in the day he study the kids.

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Speaker 2: They got their laptops up trying to make a trade

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Speaker 2: after they talked.

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Speaker 5: To right the pride of Syracuse Belly Lipschultz, Market's reporter

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Speaker 5: for Bloomberg newsh.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? Are we back?

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Speaker 5: I kind of understood the meme stock phenomenon of twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty one. People locked down in basements stiinless money, trading

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Speaker 5: stocks to have fun.

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Speaker 4: What's driving it today? Do you think?

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Speaker 7: Well, so today we're excluding today looking at the last

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Speaker 7: three days. I wrote a story yesterday about how the

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Speaker 7: fingerprints of momentum quants are kind of all over this

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Speaker 7: And when I look at the retail flows on platforms

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Speaker 7: like Fidelities and interactive brokers, more sell orders of game

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Speaker 7: Stop than to buy. Like investors who bought the stock

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Speaker 7: over the last three years and held onto the shares.

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Speaker 7: They's selling pressure there that didn't exist back in twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty one, when short interest was one hundred and forty percent.

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Speaker 7: Now it's close to twenty five percent. So the dynamics

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Speaker 7: are very different now than they were back in twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty one.

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Speaker 2: What did Hello Kitty do?

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Speaker 8: Raring Kitty?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 2: Sorry, right, come out at ten o'clock. They know what

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Speaker 2: you're talking about. I have no clue. What did Hello

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Speaker 2: Kitty do?

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Speaker 7: The Roaring Kitty ex account posted a meme on Sunday night, which,

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Speaker 7: essentially reading between the lines and looking at what the

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Speaker 7: meme stands for is essentially getting locked into a game.

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Speaker 7: So the picture was a character or a drawing leaning

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Speaker 7: back and.

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Speaker 8: Pushing forward, heating forward. That jump started, that sent the mark.

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Speaker 2: We tear apart short sellers out touting their shorts. They're Unamerican,

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Speaker 2: they're illegal. Why is this any different going long than

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Speaker 2: the short seller's getting beat up?

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Speaker 8: Not really.

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Speaker 7: I mean that's kind of the thing, Tom, when you

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Speaker 7: look at the different arguments around different stocks. Everyone has

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Speaker 7: their own case to be made. So the fact that

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Speaker 7: a person on Twitter Free world only is posting memes

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Speaker 7: NonStop and stitch together videos and the stock react.

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Speaker 2: To Neil Young's next song, meming in a Free World Billy.

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Speaker 5: So again, let's go back to who's buying this stuff?

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Speaker 5: If it isn't you know the kid in his basement

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Speaker 5: with his computer. Do we get a sense of who's buying?

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Speaker 5: Because I saw some real volume trade over the past

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Speaker 5: fday's tens of millions of shares.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: When I talk to people who advise hedge funds, they

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Speaker 7: say that the blueprint and kind of the playbook was

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Speaker 7: laid out in twenty twenty one, that some of those

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Speaker 7: momentum quants who trade strictly based on trading volumes and

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Speaker 7: momentum are getting in and out of the stock. That's

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Speaker 7: why you're seeing so much money being traded. Because again

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Speaker 7: when I look at Fidelity data, for example, back in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty one, by orders, we're outstripping those of cell

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Speaker 7: like at a thirty to one clip. Wow, they're more

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Speaker 7: cells than buys right now on So it's very different.

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Speaker 2: I got two questions. First, it's technical for those fancy

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Speaker 2: heads from people, What is the setup that they're using

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Speaker 2: to take fifty dollars a year? It doesn't matter the stock.

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Speaker 2: Are they going long to fifty one. Are they looking

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Speaker 2: for fifty two? Are they trading in pennies decimals?

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Speaker 7: I think everyone has their own different strategy, and so

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Speaker 7: I think for the most part, the idea is it

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Speaker 7: sounds super elementary buying, but gets buying. So you buy

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Speaker 7: the stock and then see the next momentum fund buys

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Speaker 7: the stock. So then you already have plugged into your algorithm.

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Speaker 7: You buy it, for your example, at fifty and then

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Speaker 7: you take in that profit at fifty two. But if

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Speaker 7: you have your computers reading that the stock's going to

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Speaker 7: keep going, then you wait for a cell signal then

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Speaker 7: to get out. So they're buying early and selling early.

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Speaker 2: Bill Gross, we published today that my good friend Bill

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Speaker 2: Gross is out, and I'm gonna explain to slowly folks.

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Speaker 2: He's doing options where he's writing them out, taking in

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Speaker 2: a pre looking at the idiot volatility and hoping that

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Speaker 2: the stock will go down. Did I do that? Okay?

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Speaker 7: That for the most part he's hoping that the stock

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Speaker 7: trade's flat. Okay, So so for he's doing that for

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Speaker 7: both GameStop and MC. He did it for Trump Media.

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Speaker 7: It's really and when we were when I was talking

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Speaker 7: to him through one of his pr people basically saying

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Speaker 7: the expectation is that there's enough money that you can

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Speaker 7: take both sides of the trade as long as it

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Speaker 7: doesn't plunge or absolutely rip.

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Speaker 8: Again, he's just taking cash, just.

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Speaker 2: Taking in the premium while the children play.

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Speaker 5: Exactly, Okay, So let's all right, that's enough for the

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Speaker 5: meme stocks. Your other meetings is IPOs. We heard from

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Speaker 5: some CEOs this week from around the world speaking that

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Speaker 5: they're pretty optimistic that the IPAL market this year is

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Speaker 5: better and they expected to remain pretty solid.

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Speaker 4: Tell us about the IPAL market.

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Speaker 5: This year, what have we seen so far, how's the volume,

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Speaker 5: how's business and then what's the outlook.

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Speaker 7: Everything has to be better that when you're coming off

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Speaker 7: the worst year in more than twelve years. So we've

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Speaker 7: seen volumes for the most part. Taking up the comps

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Speaker 7: actually got a little bit more difficult because this time

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Speaker 7: last year Janj's ken View carve out happened. That price

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Speaker 7: a few billion dollars in paper, but we've seen three

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Speaker 7: deals greater than a billion dollars. Viking Holdings luxury cruise

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Speaker 7: line has done quite well, up seventeen percent from offer price.

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Speaker 7: Omor Sports, which was hotly debated up about sixteen percent

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Speaker 7: from that price, and then Caspy, which is a Kazakhstan

436
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 7: app A lot of debate around that. But we've seen

437
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 7: Reddit and Rubric and ul Solutions, who makes the does

438
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 7: safety testing, a number of kind of companies coming to

439
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 7: market and for the most part.

440
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 8: Being well received.

441
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 7: And we've seen a number of companies considering whether they

442
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 7: want to go now or wait until after?

443
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 2: Are we back to our profits or ibitar we're blind

444
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 2: to that. They're just looking at gross gross growth.

445
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 8: Now so far removed from that.

446
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 7: And that's the big issue when you talked to venture

447
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 7: capitalists is that they have a lot of companies that

448
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 7: they need to get out of and start to take

449
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 7: return money to their LPU, and the market's not ready

450
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 7: for that.

451
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: Who decides the next meme stock? Who chooses? I mean

452
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: I looked at like fifteen names and there really is

453
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 2: there's no correlation, Paul that I can see why in there?

454
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 7: Well, that's and this is this is where the.

455
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 8: Existential debate of a memestock comes back.

456
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 7: Like AMC and GameStop, bed Bathroom Beyond back in the day,

457
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 7: I think we're true memestocks. Heavily shorted companies that were

458
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 7: rallying just because people posted actual memes on.

459
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 8: The internet bed bath and beyond robin Hood.

460
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 7: Some of those are heavily shorted names that are just

461
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 7: getting your typical short squeeze and maybe a gamma squeeze

462
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 7: if people are flipping out of the money call options.

463
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 7: But it's not what I would classify as a company.

464
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: If I say gamma squeeze, they put me in the

465
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: Survin Boxy Bailey Trots the King's English guy.

466
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 4: All right, So what's uh, what's next here on your beat?

467
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 4: Because I'm thinking.

468
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 5: Spin offs, IPO, SPACs, I mean, what's the next big thing?

469
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 7: I think people more and more conversations are centering around

470
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 7: spinouts and car outs. A number of public companies considering

471
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 7: IPO in particular units. We saw and we have seen

472
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 7: recently and continuing over the last few years, investors wanting

473
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 7: skinnier companies and more focused stories.

474
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 8: So we saw that with J and J Kenview.

475
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 7: We saw that with a number of companies Kellogg creating

476
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 7: Kelenova and.

477
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 8: W K Kellogg or yeah, w K kel Logg.

478
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 7: So breakups are back in vogue, and that's one of

479
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 7: the things we've been watching.

480
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 8: When we talk to em bankers.

481
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: So then he's I get it. He's migrating from our

482
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 2: meme reporter over to our matrimonial reporter.

483
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 4: That's right, you say, Rory, Yes, I know too bad.

484
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 2: Bailey Lipshalaltz have that for you, the breakups reporter for Bloomberg.

485
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: I learned a lot. Seriously, it's great. I don't get it.

486
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: I just totally don't get a Bailey thank you. In

487
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 2: the King's English Year, your data. Look at the front

488
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 2: pages brought you buy the Lisa Mateo Show, the Star

489
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: the Lisa Mateo Show. With our newspaper study, what.

490
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 4: Do you got?

491
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: Well?

492
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: All right, this one stood out to me. It is

493
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journal cheating on workplace drug tests

494
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: hitting the highest.

495
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: Rate in more than thirty years.

496
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 1: Okay, this was a study Quest Diagnostics. They took urine

497
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: samples from twenty twenty three. About thirty one thousand drug

498
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 1: screens out of five point five million shown signs of cheating.

499
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: So the percentage of samples that came back positive about

500
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: the same. But people are tampering with it. Mar you

501
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: know marijuana laws have changed things like that. How they're cheating,

502
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: they're using someone else's urine, they're using animal synthetic urine

503
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 1: that you can actually buy online, and they're using that

504
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: so in valid tests up forty three compared to the yearboot.

505
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 5: You were that, so you can they don't test for

506
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 5: weed anymore, right, because that's legalized.

507
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 4: Right.

508
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: It depends different states, that's what its so different.

509
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 4: States government rules. I see what's going on.

510
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's why there's these gray area now, so

511
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: more people are cheating, cheating on the tests what they're finding.

512
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: So I thought that was interesting because this shows the

513
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: workplace is kind of changing too in that way.

514
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 4: Yep, absolutely, sorry, interesting stuff.

515
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: So you were talking about the entertainment, right, so I

516
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: want to keep playing on this and streaming services, Tom,

517
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: you're gonna like this. The latest Nielsen data shows YouTube

518
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: giving streaming some competition for viewership. Okay, so it shows

519
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: ten percent of the time Americans spent in front of

520
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 1: TV screens last month was on its YouTube smart TV app.

521
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 1: The top position went to Disney. Actually Disney plus Hulu,

522
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 1: ESPN all the same. They took eleven point five percent.

523
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: So you had you had you know, YouTube at ten,

524
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: you had Disney at eleven point five. I mean two

525
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: You see the difference.

526
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I read it so carefully and it's really coming

527
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: on and what's amazing, and we're living this every day

528
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 2: folks out on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast is the

529
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: combination of YouTube It's where we are, folks, and YouTube TV,

530
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 2: which is totally in Paul. That's sports like like they've

531
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 2: got come on. They got the money to get that

532
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: NBA dealer.

533
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: Partner and they have films, produce series, sports, live events.

534
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 4: Like what do you have.

535
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 5: What was most important to me on this story was

536
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 5: that for the first time ever, Nielsen is tracking broadcast viewership,

537
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 5: cable viewership and streaming viewership.

538
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 4: I took them fifteen.

539
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 5: Years and now we're there, and so now they can

540
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 5: do it by the show. So what the streaming services

541
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 5: are saying to the actors and the writers, I'm going

542
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 5: to pay you based upon the viewership to your show

543
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: because I can now measure and.

544
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 2: Just as you know, everybody knows this, but the search engine,

545
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: the knowledge base of YouTube is scared. I was searching

546
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 2: David Sandborn for our songs for the day and instantly

547
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: I head up all this stuff that Google found of

548
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: David Sandborn in the Great Sex. What do you got next?

549
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 1: So the streaming services are actually up in the end.

550
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: They're trying to offer content from top celebrities, musicians, comedy.

551
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: So Walt Disney came out and they said their streaming

552
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: platforms added Bruce Bringsteen to list of artists that are

553
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,959
Speaker 1: producing shows. So his documentary is going to be out October.

554
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: We're on Disney Plus and Hulu. But Disney's they've already had,

555
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: you know, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, they've done Billy I yet Bungo, Yeah,

556
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: not on but yep, yep, and then and it's not

557
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: just music music ardens. Comedians are big too, drawing in crowds.

558
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: So Hulu has acquired the rights first santi comedian Jim Gaffigan,

559
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 1: who's really popular and hilarious. But so his uh show

560
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: The Skinny that's going to debut November twenty second. But

561
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: it just shows how much there there's grambling to.

562
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 4: Like would I would argue it doesn't exist. It does

563
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 4: not exist. Eric, we got to.

564
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: Get Maffa, We're gonna get Rich Greenfield on, we got

565
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 2: to get some bran, We got to get some of

566
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: these animals.

567
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 4: I still pay Cable.

568
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 2: I don't know why you got one.

569
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 8: Yeah, one more. Tom Brady's roast.

570
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: Do you remember that?

571
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 4: Right? It was on Netflix? Okay, I missed this.

572
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, the most watched TV program on Netflix the last

573
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: week was his roast. Now he's saying he kind of

574
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 1: regrets it a little bit because of the way it

575
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: impacted his kids. He was thinking about that, some of

576
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: the jokes and some of the things like that. Nothing

577
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: about his kids, but you know, they were poking fun

578
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: you divorce and things like that.

579
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 4: So he was actually one.

580
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: Of the producers, the executive producer of it. So now

581
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: we're kind of backtracking.

582
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 4: Question just how much was he paid for that? Yeah?

583
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 4: Now I think people say fifty million dollars? Really, yeah,

584
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 4: I have not five vote five. I don't know.

585
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 5: But what would make Tom Brady go through that, go

586
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 5: through this? And I'm not even sure if Tom Brady

587
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 5: fifty millions worth it? But I mean he did it

588
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 5: the knucklehead, some dealer I remember.

589
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: I mean, you guys are too young to remember this,

590
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: but I remember the rage of the Rose years ago,

591
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: like Don Rickles and Dean Martin and I used to

592
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 2: sit there and look at him and go, why are

593
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: they doing this? I never got it. I'm sure we

594
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,959
Speaker 2: have people listening and watching who love these things? And

595
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 2: I just Damien loved it.

596
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, Damien was all over, But.

597
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: I just I never got him when I was a kid.

598
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 2: And you know, like I can sympathize with mister Brady.

599
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: It's like whole bullying session.

600
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: You got one more or what I've done?

601
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 4: No, we are down for today.

602
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: Lisa Teo, thank you so much. On the newspapers there,

603
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: don't forget folks a Lisa Matteo's show, the Upfront. Are

604
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 2: they just they're on fire? Yeah, I mean Lisa Matteo

605
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: Upfront are Oh yeah.

606
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: My family always says we should be a.

607
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: The merch bag. Yeah, the swag bag for the Lisa

608
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: Matteo Show.

609
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 3: Yep.

610
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 2: But Kenny yogurt you know, that's what you get, yogurt

611
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: and spoon. Thank you, Lisa Matteo, thank you so much.

612
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 2: The newspapers today. Reddy Green on the screen, Paul, this

613
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 2: is exciting thirty five minutes. It's like a job for report.

614
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 4: This is important.

615
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 5: I mean, I think you know if you're the Fed watcher,

616
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 5: it's it's where it is. Inflation January February March a

617
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 5: little bit hotter than expected, and what are we going

618
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 5: to see in April here because a lot of folks

619
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 5: would like to see a little bit of a cooling

620
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 5: in that inflation print. Maybe give the Fed a little

621
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 5: bit more leeway to cut rates.

622
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: Do you know that our newspaper report is so popular

623
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: they're making a podcast out of.

624
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 4: The least Wow.

625
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 2: That you should see it, folks. I mean, seriously, how

626
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: she puts this together. She's got like twenty newspapers, she

627
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: puts it together. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing

628
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

629
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

630
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show

631
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our

632
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast

633
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always

634
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.