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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Boy, do we have a gift for you. Visions of

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Speaker 2: Super Bowls still dancing the heads of these teams.

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Speaker 1: If we make it through Deceimper, everything's gonna be all right.

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Speaker 1: I know.

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Speaker 2: If we make it through de Simper.

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Speaker 1: We will be fine.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. Happy Holidays.

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Speaker 1: This is your NFL week number sixteen betting preview.

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Speaker 3: You already know.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about our favorite size totals, teasers, underdog

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Speaker 1: money lines, and of course crack open our weekly six

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Speaker 1: pack up against the spread bets with the help of

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Speaker 1: my co hosts, the mister Tenano on the Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 1: this year, Mister eighth and one on the last three

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Speaker 1: weeks of the pack, Mister Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck, Happy Holidays.

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Speaker 3: You're hot right now? How you feeling good?

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Speaker 2: There was someone left of review saying no one wants

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Speaker 2: Stucky the alcoholics picks. Hopefully that guy has been about

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Speaker 2: the review on the podcast. Hopefully he's been fading. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was a good week. As I always said, last

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Speaker 2: week was last week, let's try to find some winners

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Speaker 2: for I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, at this point, all I got to do is

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Speaker 1: get my one. I'll get my one, You get your

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Speaker 1: three as you've been doing. And we have a winter

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Speaker 1: weeks and hopefully this.

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Speaker 3: Reviewer keeps giving you botes and more material, because.

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Speaker 2: Hey, you've carried me plenty in the past, so happy

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Speaker 2: to carry for a couple of weeks. But let's let's

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Speaker 2: go for six and other this week.

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Speaker 3: Programming note, before we jump into Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: With the holidays coming out, we still have our normal

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Speaker 1: episodes out for week seventeen and eighteen, but with Christmas

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Speaker 1: and New Year's Day falling on Mondays, we'll have shorter

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Speaker 1: NFL recap episodes. Those obviously come out on Tuesday mornings

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Speaker 1: the next two weeks, led by Action Director of Research

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Speaker 1: Evan Abram, so check those out, but just be aware

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Speaker 1: it would be a little shorterest these next two weeks.

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Speaker 1: And of course we want to thank everyone for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you're still here with us sixteen weeks in, we

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Speaker 1: appreciate you so on behalf of everyone here at Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We wish you your families, your loved ones, everyone you

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Speaker 1: care about very happy safe, profitable holiday season, and.

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Speaker 3: If you are a van, merry Christmas. But let's go

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Speaker 3: ahead and kick things off with Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 3: Let's bet Thursday Night football, all right?

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Speaker 1: Saints at the Rams Rams favored by four four and

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Speaker 1: a half or some spots to total is forty six.

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Speaker 1: I've been fading the Saints hasn't worked out the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it has something.

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Speaker 1: To do with the Giants and Panthers being the couple

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Speaker 1: of worst teams in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, but.

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Speaker 1: To me, this is not a spot where you want

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Speaker 1: to fade the Saints now they're an underdog. I think

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Speaker 1: you want to fade the Saints when their favorite. You know,

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Speaker 1: they tend to kind of fall shorter expectations. But now

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Speaker 1: you're just taking two mediocre mid NFC playoff hopefuls, and

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Speaker 1: one of them is favored by more than a field

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Speaker 1: goal on a Thursday. So I would lean Saints here, stuck.

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Speaker 3: What about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate thy football, but I actually I don't

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Speaker 2: think I've had a bet on Thursday football game in

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Speaker 2: a while. I'll have a small bet here on these Saints.

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Speaker 2: I think this should be basically a field goal game.

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Speaker 2: Rams just don't profile. I know they covered last week

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Speaker 2: because Pattle, but Ron didn't go for two again. I

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Speaker 2: lost that total because they missed the extra point. By

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Speaker 2: the way, so I.

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Speaker 1: Kickers, and it's a kickers in Rams games, and now

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Speaker 1: you got Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I thought they were going to go for two and

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Speaker 2: I had over forty nine, so I was like, all right,

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Speaker 2: I'll take my chances with going for the win instead

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Speaker 2: of the push. And I just figured they were going

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Speaker 2: to go for two. They didn't, so I was like,

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Speaker 2: all right, I'll take my push and then it gets blocked. Unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: It's like the Rams don't want their kickers to make

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Speaker 1: kicks or the mponent kickers to get kicks.

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Speaker 3: No, nobody makes kicks and Rams games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Oh, and the Rams missed the chip shop before then

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Speaker 2: after missing a lot of them passed. That one was brutal.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I like the Saints here, cars playing a

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Speaker 2: little better of late. No, it's not been the best competition,

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Speaker 2: but I mean the who the Rams. They'll be a

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Speaker 2: feisty dog and I like them as a dog. Is

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Speaker 2: the way Stafford's playing and they'll be worth a look

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Speaker 2: depending on who they get if they get in in

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Speaker 2: the first round of the NFL playoffs. But their wins

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Speaker 2: come over to Seahawks twice, Arizona twice, Washington Cleveland with

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Speaker 2: all those injuries. Think PJ. Walker finished the game, and

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Speaker 2: Indian ot Like that's their wins this year. Their d

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Speaker 2: is just bad. It's just so void of talent outside

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Speaker 2: of Donald. The other thing you gotta mention big special

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Speaker 2: teams advantage. Saint something have an elite speial teams, you know,

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Speaker 2: but the Rams Swish teams is just so bad that

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Speaker 2: they'll lose games because they're special teams. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think it's too many points. They have the much better defense,

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Speaker 2: the better special teams, and the way that they played

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Speaker 2: defense from a schematic standpoint is how you want to

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Speaker 2: face this stafford in this Rams offense. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like the Saints with the points here.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the total, it's forty six and a

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Speaker 1: half of a lot of spots now keeps going up.

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Speaker 1: But it's kind of interesting because we already talked about it.

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Speaker 1: Both of these both of these kickers really are liable

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Speaker 1: to have missed multiple kicks. Any leans on the total

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Speaker 1: or you think it's pretty much.

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Speaker 2: I make it forty five. Yeah, you could give some miskicks,

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Speaker 2: which would certainly lead to increased chances for under back.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the week sixteen six packs.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for action.

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Speaker 3: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack for our Week

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Speaker 3: sixteen six pack.

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Speaker 1: Because we got all these games spread out, we still

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Speaker 1: won't count the Thursday game that will be out of

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Speaker 1: the running for the contest, but we're going to open

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Speaker 1: it up to all of the other games because we

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Speaker 1: do have three games on Monday, so it's not like

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Speaker 1: just a Monday night game, so we'll do those will

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Speaker 1: be included. The all the Sunday games, obviously we'll be included.

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Speaker 1: Out of the Saturday games as well.

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Speaker 3: Will be included.

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Speaker 1: So for Week sixteen, we're just doing the six pack.

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Speaker 1: Will necessarily be the Sunday six pack, just a six pack.

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Speaker 1: With that said, stuck where you're going first?

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Speaker 2: All right, for my first pick of the week sixteen

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Speaker 2: weekend holiday six pack, I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens

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Speaker 2: plus five and a half at the San Francisco forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers. I told you this last week I'm fortunately

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Speaker 2: going first on such a role that even Sata himself

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Speaker 2: flew in to see if they were for real, and

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Speaker 2: on Christmas Day they made believers of even the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers. First of all, hardball as a dog pretty

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Speaker 2: much anywhere, any place, any time, with anybody at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to back them. Ravens nineteen and four against

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Speaker 2: the spread as an underdog since twenty eighteen, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 2: fifteen and one against the spread as an underdog are

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Speaker 2: favored of less than a field goal. Lamar Jackson also

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Speaker 2: nineteen and one straight up against the NFC. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: you'll see that a lot over the weekend. Part of

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Speaker 2: that has some validity. A lot of that is a

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Speaker 2: you know, they're a lot better than many of the

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Speaker 2: NFC teams they play. They're not playing a team with

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Speaker 2: the Port Niners, who are better than them. But these

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Speaker 2: NFC teams are not used to the Lamar Jackson's speed,

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Speaker 2: and there's kind of a you know, shell shock factor

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Speaker 2: early on to adjust to the angles and him creating

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Speaker 2: plays with his legs. But there's a couple of things

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Speaker 2: that I like about this matchup. One, it is early

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Speaker 2: in the week, but the forty nine Ers could potentially

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Speaker 2: have some major defensive losses. So last week they played

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Speaker 2: without Armstead and Hargrave up the front. Their day to

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Speaker 2: day Shanahan doesn't know if they're going to play. The

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Speaker 2: Cardinals averaged eight yards per rush, so their run defense

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Speaker 2: is very vulnerable if one or both of them are out.

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Speaker 2: You also had Lenore, their corner has been playing really well.

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Speaker 2: He went out with a rib injury. Day to Day

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Speaker 2: also talked about this early in the season. The forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers pass defense was problematic early in the season,

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Speaker 2: and then they made a key change and they took

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Speaker 2: Isaiah Oliver out of the lineup, you know, put Lenore

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Speaker 2: in as a starter, and their secondary started playing a

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Speaker 2: lot better. So if he's out, you know, then there's

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Speaker 2: some potential holes again. And I have the better defense,

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Speaker 2: the much better special teams, and I have Harball and

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Speaker 2: Lamar as an underdog in a game that I think

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Speaker 2: is going to be is going to live up to

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Speaker 2: the billing. I think this is field goal game. I

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Speaker 2: know the Ravens will be ready, they'll be buttoned up,

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Speaker 2: and I have to mention it because it's worth mentioning

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Speaker 2: the AFC over the NFC this year. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: it's worth at least something. We saw it again with

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Speaker 2: the Bills against the Cowboys last week. The AFC has

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Speaker 2: had a great year against the NFC, who the forty

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Speaker 2: nine Ers lost to. They're one and two against the

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Speaker 2: AFC North. They lost a PJ. Walker, They lost the

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Speaker 2: Bengals at home. They beat the Steelers in the opener.

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Speaker 2: I think there's too many points. I think as of

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Speaker 2: right now, this is the favorite to be the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl matchup. I make it closer to three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Give me the Ravens harball as a dog. I think

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Speaker 2: my prediction forty nine Ers win by a field goal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Ravens as well. Any chance you

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Speaker 3: think this gets to six? I mean five and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's pushing it, but I would doubt it actually hits

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Speaker 1: the six.

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Speaker 3: But do you think there's any chance of that?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so, so I already bought it at

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Speaker 2: five and a half. I don't think that it does.

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Speaker 2: If it does, I would assume it gets bought quick.

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Speaker 2: But I think this is more likely to go to

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Speaker 2: four and a half from six.

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Speaker 1: Would you buy a would you pay for like, you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty six or is do you think, because

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Speaker 1: I know, I mean it used to be seven and three,

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Speaker 1: but now with the way teams are going for two

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Speaker 1: and it's more like the overtime, you're just kind of

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Speaker 1: protecting the six for a push.

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Speaker 2: But would you do that if you could find a

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Speaker 2: cheap one out there?

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Speaker 3: I don't need it, Okay, Yeah, I like that as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Raven's I mean high quality team and Lamar just

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Speaker 1: the off schedule things that you can't even really model.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, man, that play he had last week

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Speaker 1: against Jacksonville where he was like got.

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Speaker 3: Out of trouble.

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Speaker 1: And I know people hate Collins works for slurping on

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Speaker 1: all these quarterbacks, but that was like a slurpable play

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Speaker 1: on that on that Lamar where he just threw it

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Speaker 1: up after getting out of trouble. So yeah, I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised to see I wouldn't be sprisedy the Ravers

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Speaker 1: win a game. Honestly, I think San Francisco's kind of

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Speaker 1: been coasting a little bit, you know, and now they're

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Speaker 1: just coming off playing one of the worst teams in

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Speaker 1: the league. Now it's kind of a little shock step

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Speaker 1: up on competition again. I mean, it's not as I've

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Speaker 1: generally handled that well this year, but yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: this is this should be a close game.

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Speaker 2: Oh Merry Christmas.

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Speaker 3: That's unbelievable what he just did. All right.

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Speaker 1: For my first pick, the second overall of the week,

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Speaker 1: sixteen to six pack, go with the Vikings plus three

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Speaker 1: home dogs against the Lions. Not a usual Lions state

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Speaker 1: spot because this is an indoor game. Minnesota is still

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Speaker 1: an indoor spot. But I think you're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: desperate Minnesota team still alive here for playoff positioning. And

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Speaker 1: you know, Minnesota keep saying his defense. I think it's

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Speaker 1: it's being underrated. You know, it's top five up in

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Speaker 1: DVOA now and obviously that's you know, takes schedule adjustment

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Speaker 1: into account.

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Speaker 3: They had that one.

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Speaker 1: Really bad game against Philadelphia defending the run early in

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Speaker 1: Week two. Since then, you know their top six run

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Speaker 1: defense as well seventh against the pass.

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Speaker 3: And that blitz.

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Speaker 1: I think that blitz is going to give Jared Goff

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Speaker 1: some issues even though it's indoors, because we all know

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Speaker 1: by now Minnesota leads the NFL with a fifty percent

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Speaker 1: blitz rate. Brian Flores has done an amazing job and

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff this year. Give him his credit when not

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Speaker 1: blitz Jared Goff number one out of forty one qualified

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in PFF grade, so he's been excellent when the

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Speaker 1: defense isn't really mixing it up, sending anything exotic at him,

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Speaker 1: just standard for a man rush.

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Speaker 3: But when you blitz Goff, he goes from.

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Speaker 1: Number one out of forty one to number twenty nine

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Speaker 1: out of forty one, so he becomes, you know, barely

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Speaker 1: a starter level quarterback when you blitz him. And again,

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Speaker 1: this Viking defense blitz his team's fifty percent at the time,

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Speaker 1: more than anybody in the league by far. So I

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Speaker 1: think the Viking defense it's it's a quality defense, but

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Speaker 1: I think the scheme also, I will give Goff some

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Speaker 1: issues and it helps that Minnesota can defend the run

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Speaker 1: reasonably well. I assume you're still going to get some

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Speaker 1: big plays from Jamior Gibbs because he doesn't seem to

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Speaker 1: be contained lately. But on the other side, Minnesota, you know,

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Speaker 1: sought earlier in the year with cam Akers. Hopefully this

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Speaker 1: time it's for real. Ty Chandler just excellent game in

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Speaker 1: place of Alexander Madison. So looks like Chandler should have

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Speaker 1: no worse than a fifty to fifty split. I think

269
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Speaker 1: they should just give him the whole feature back role.

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Speaker 1: But he's averaging nearly a full yard per touch more

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Speaker 1: than Alexander Madison this year, better success rate on both

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Speaker 1: runs and receptions. And then Justin Jefferson being back is big,

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Speaker 1: you know, sixty five percent receiving success rate that's second

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Speaker 1: to only Brandon Ayuk among wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: So Nick Mullens is not jam Sutton shadow Jefferson good.

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Speaker 3: Luck, Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: And Nick Mullens is just the latest in the line

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Speaker 1: of these backup quarterbacks. But because you know, we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this with Minnesota, they've low key somehow been able

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Speaker 1: to build a deep enough roster to where it's next

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Speaker 1: man up hasn't really hurt them. And then the coaches

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Speaker 1: are just getting the most out of these guys, you know,

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Speaker 1: taking like lesser talent and getting the most. So we

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Speaker 1: saw that last week with Nick Mollons keeping them in

285
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Speaker 1: a game, was able to throw for over three hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: I did throw a couple of bad picks, but such

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Speaker 1: as a life. I think Goff could do the same

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Speaker 1: against his whats heavy defense, So not really looking at

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Speaker 1: like a major, major disadvantage here at quarterback with with Mohens,

290
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Speaker 1: he can get the ball to these guys Jefferson, Hockinson, Madison,

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Speaker 1: you know, stepping up big as huge because earlier in

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Speaker 1: the year, Addison was more of a uh you know,

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Speaker 1: a third wide receivers when Jefferson was in the game.

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Speaker 1: Now Addison's playing every snap with Jefferson. So I think

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Speaker 1: this Minnesota offense is still dangerous that at home they're desperate.

296
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Speaker 3: The defense can bother.

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Speaker 1: GoF Detroit is not playing as well lately, and especially

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Speaker 1: on defense, you know Detroit, You've mentioned it a bunch stuck.

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Speaker 1: That defense is just sinking down, down, down. You know

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Speaker 1: they're they're they're especially in the past game. So again,

301
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Speaker 1: like you said, Jefferson matched up on Sutton, that's a

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Speaker 1: dub for Jefferson if you, you know, sell out to

303
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Speaker 1: stop him. Addison scored two touchdowns last week. You sell

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Speaker 1: out to stop them.

305
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Speaker 3: TJ.

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Speaker 1: Hockins is going to burn you over the middle. And

307
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Speaker 1: now hopefully if you were just selling out to stop

308
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Speaker 1: the past you can Minnesota can actually hurt you on

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Speaker 1: the ground with ty Chandlers.

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Speaker 3: So uh not to mention. In terms of our.

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Speaker 1: Luck rankings, Detroit one of the luckier teams in the

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Speaker 1: league eighth eighth luckiest, Minnesota twenty first, So it's a

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Speaker 1: luck mismatch as well.

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Speaker 3: We've seen the trends in this spot.

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Speaker 1: You know, Week six conference dogs, you know play you

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Speaker 1: know with they have won less than fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: their games against the spread in the last five seventy

318
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Speaker 1: eight forty five and three sixty three percent since twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Week sixteen conference dogs with not more than one against

320
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Speaker 1: the spread win in the last four fifty five twenty

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Speaker 1: eight one sixty six percent since five. So this is

322
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Speaker 1: a bounce back spot for Minnesota. That's kind of been

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Speaker 1: They've been in every game, but they've they've kind of

324
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Speaker 1: been up and down a little bit. I think they

325
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Speaker 1: get a desperate division win here because I think that

326
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Speaker 1: blitz against Goff will slow Detroit down just just enough

327
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Speaker 1: for Minnesota pull it off.

328
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I agree with this one. Like I had the

329
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Speaker 2: lines last week, I think that it was just more

330
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Speaker 2: about the Broncos and all the regression hitting them at once.

331
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Speaker 2: I was actually really impressed with the Vikings. They they

332
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Speaker 2: took them fifty miracles for the Bengals in that game,

333
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Speaker 2: and it's it's really a shame Like in the NFC.

334
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Speaker 2: I played this, so I agree, it's really a shame

335
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Speaker 2: in that in the NFC, the forty nine ers are

336
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Speaker 2: head and shoulders above everybody else. And then I think

337
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 2: you have the Cowboys and then the Eagles, and then

338
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, the lines. If they play at home,

339
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 2: they just don't have the defense and they're gonna have

340
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 2: to go on the road. You know, the Rams. It

341
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 2: could be a chippy dog, but they don't have the defense.

342
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Speaker 2: If the you know, if Kirk Cousins was healthy, yeah,

343
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Speaker 2: Vikings would be a legit sleeper in the s C.

344
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Speaker 2: You have two ridiculous receivers, good tight end, found your back,

345
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 2: great offensive line with two really good tackles, and then

346
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,920
Speaker 2: this defense. That's the biggest difference, and that's the floor

347
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Speaker 2: as bump. With this defense playing as well as it is,

348
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Speaker 2: if they have Cousins, they would be a legit problem.

349
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Speaker 2: In the NFC, then they could still win a game

350
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Speaker 2: or two, but they just don't. They don't. They just

351
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,439
Speaker 2: don't have the ceiling now. But I agree here anything

352
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Speaker 2: if you'll go above my second pick and the third

353
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Speaker 2: overall of the week sixteen Holiday weekend six pack. I

354
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 2: am going with the Eastern stick led Los Angeles Chargers

355
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 2: plus twelve at home against the Buffalo Bills, putting my

356
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 2: perfect Bills record on the line against the spread. This year,

357
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 2: I knew I was going to bet this. I took

358
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,159
Speaker 2: some fourteen early in the week. I would bet this

359
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 2: down to eleven and a half. This is this has

360
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 2: This is basically every once in a while during the

361
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 2: NFL season, I a pure spot plays. There's no matchup,

362
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 2: there's nothing I'm going to tell you about the x's

363
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: and o's. This checks every box from a spotlight perspective,

364
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 2: and then I show showed enough line value to play it.

365
00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 2: So number one, we're selling high on the Bills. Here

366
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 2: the market on the Bills. The Bills have been a

367
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 2: fun roller coaster to bet because I've just been fortunate

368
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 2: enough to be on the right side of it. Bet

369
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 2: them early in the year, at all those defensive injuries,

370
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 2: I started fading them. Everyone jumped off and said the

371
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 2: Bill stink. And then you know, I've bet them the

372
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 2: last three weeks. Now everyone's saying the Bills super Bowl.

373
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 2: So little you know, sell high but after three big games,

374
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: now you're going across country in a short week. Means

375
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 2: more late in the year. They just played the Cowboys, Eagles,

376
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 2: and Chiefs. Chargers extended rest new head coach Bump. What

377
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 2: does that mean? Well, I think that they quit on Stalley,

378
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: So you know, I would assume that they're or hope

379
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: that they can. They're going to rally here. This is

380
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 2: basically becomes like a kind of a super Bowl for them.

381
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 2: They're not going to the playoffs. They can try and

382
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 2: help ruin the Bills season. And these are professional athletes.

383
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 2: They were embarrassed, came up sixty plus to the Raiders,

384
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 2: lost by forty. Teams are never as bad as they

385
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 2: look and look double digit. Well, let me just say

386
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: with this, teams that lose by thirty five or more

387
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 2: usually a good bet in the NFL buying low on

388
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 2: them usually get their best effort the next week after

389
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 2: they're embarrassed. He's lost by thirty five plus points the

390
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: previous week seventy five, forty four and six against the

391
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 2: spread over the past twenty years, sixty three percent, covering

392
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 2: by about a field goal per game when underdogs after

393
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 2: losing by thirty five or more fifty eight twenty nine

394
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: and five against the spread sixty seven percent. That includes

395
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: seventeen and three against the number when catching more than

396
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: ten points after losing by thirty five or more eighty

397
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 2: five percent, so double digital dog. That means they're a

398
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 2: bad team. Some of them have backup quarterbacks as well,

399
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 2: and they just lost by thirty five plus. No one

400
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 2: wants to back that team well in this situation, which

401
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 2: has only happened on average once a year of the

402
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 2: past twenty years, seventeen and three against the spread covering

403
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: by ten points per game. A couple outright upsets in

404
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 2: there as well, including six sixteen and one after the

405
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 2: month of September, and teams who allowed fifty plus the

406
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: week before covered a sixty five percent clip over the

407
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: past thirty years. Going to get their best effort year,

408
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 2: Bill's riding high could come out a little flat. You

409
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: could get like an Allen turnover early. This is just

410
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: the spot new coach bump, short week going across the country,

411
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 2: extended rest for the Chargers, Bill's off three big games

412
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: probably not going to be as focused here for this one.

413
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 2: I like the Chargers give me easton stick as a

414
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: double digit home dog and one last one here. Double

415
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: digit home dogs in the NFL will always catch my eye.

416
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 2: Double digit road favorites in the NFL past twenty years

417
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 2: fifty three, seventy three and one against the spread. I

418
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: like the Chargers. I think this game is going to

419
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 2: get weird. You'll know in the first quarter if the Chargers,

420
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: like rallied and come out and if also if the

421
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,199
Speaker 2: Bills are flat. If that's the case, I think this

422
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: will be close to the fourth Bills probably fly pet

423
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: pull it out, but I think it's the spot to

424
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 2: back the Chargers.

425
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you've had the feel on the Bills.

426
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 1: I would have probably just would have been a game

427
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: I would stay away from. But uh, you make good points,

428
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: especially about the you know, the more the bigger you

429
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: get blown out in the NFL. You know, I've definitely

430
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 1: always kind of noticed that the next week because it's

431
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 1: just natural, even from a model perspective, right like now

432
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 1: you have to factor in this massive point differential into

433
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: the number, and then it's obvious, like it's it's such

434
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: an outlier that it's you know, it's almost guaranteed to

435
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: come down, so you're almost guaranteed to get somewhat of

436
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 1: a well then the martage.

437
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 2: In general and they you know, you have all these

438
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 2: betters that who wants to back the team that just

439
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: lost by fifty?

440
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: Right? Yeah, yeah, all right.

441
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: For my second pick to fourth overall of the week,

442
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: sixteen to six pack, I am going with the Pittsburgh

443
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: Steelers plus two home dog against the Cincinnati Bengals. We're

444
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 1: gonna try this again into Steelers. I like buying the teams.

445
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: Whenever the sky is falling on the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike

446
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:03,959
Speaker 1: Tomlin might be fired.

447
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 3: The tradition is dead. That's a moment right here for

448
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 3: your young stuns. Let's live, Kims want to have a

449
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: good Christmas.

450
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: But I think the Cincinnati team has been running a

451
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: little high. I think you know Pittsburgh. Yeah, I was

452
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: about to say, finally, Pittsburgh not the luckiest team. Neither. No,

453
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania teams are the top teams. Cincinnati has taken over Cincinnati.

454
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 1: I mean both teams. Injuries that will affect the past,

455
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati pass game of Pittsburgh. You know, No, Well

456
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: KZ got suspended and then looks like Mink is gonna miss.

457
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: But Cincinnati know Jamar Chase that's big because now you

458
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: know t Higgins, you could kind of game plan against him,

459
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: and you know Tyler Boyd's been playing West. It's just

460
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of tight ends I think for Cincinnati,

461
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: which is it's just not really uh an offense that

462
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: scares you without Jamar Chase and Jake Browning's worst game

463
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 1: came against the Pittsburgh Steels. I think that was like

464
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: the one time fading the Steelers, you know, when they

465
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: were what I think they were favored.

466
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 3: Didn't work out in these last few.

467
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, the Steers one, they should have won that

468
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 2: game by about twenty five. They had about four h

469
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 2: yards of offense is the first, Yes, yeah, that game.

470
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, So this is I mean, this is kind of

471
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: what the Steelers do. It's just like you think they're

472
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: dead and they're gonna come back. You know, I thought

473
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 1: they played competitively last week and then it just all

474
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: came apart in that near the end of the first

475
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: half for them. But you know, you're gonna get their

476
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 1: best effort here. And Mason Rudolph, if you look at

477
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 1: his adjustin net yards per attempt five point one for

478
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: his career, Kenny Pickett five point zero, and Trubisky career

479
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: as a Steeler four point nine, so there's really been

480
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: no drop off of anything. Rudolph probably has been the

481
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: slightly better one over you know, the span of their careers.

482
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 1: I already mentioned Cincinnati number one and Luck and then

483
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: no DJ Reader on defense for Cincinnati on the interior, yeah,

484
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: top ten PFF grade overall for defensive lineman h top

485
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 1: ten grade in run defense, and top ten grade in

486
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: pass rush too.

487
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: So even the interior pass rush takes a bit of

488
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 3: a hit.

489
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: But we and the drop off the most important things

490
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 2: to drop off to his replacement.

491
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And we remember last year when this reader

492
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: missed a good trunk of the season and the splits

493
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: were like night and day. It was like they were

494
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 1: allowing you know, like under four yards to carry well

495
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 1: under four yards of carry with reader on the field,

496
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: and you know high fours, well fives with reader off

497
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: the field. So, Pittsburgh, anytime you can help this team

498
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: run the ball, that's always important when you have a

499
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: you know, quarterback situation like this.

500
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 3: But more importantly this another Tomlin raw Ross spots.

501
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 1: We know he's fifty five thirty one against the spread

502
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: as a dog sixty four percent seventeen and six with

503
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 1: three pushes seventy four percent against the spread as a

504
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: home dog.

505
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 3: What a ra ram like Tumlin spot.

506
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: We win the game with this prool bodies right here today,

507
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: bring the only game to day and as a dog

508
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: off a loss twenty one and eleven, sixty six percent

509
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: against the spread, and then it doesn't happen often. So

510
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 1: I don't know how much you're putting stock to put

511
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: into this, but I did. It did pop up on

512
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 1: my action lab, so I thought I mentioned it because

513
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting. But Week sixteen underdogs on a three

514
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 1: game losing streak, seventeen and three against the spread eighty

515
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: five percent over the past two decades.

516
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: So seventeen and three that's also the.

517
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 1: Yeah you had one too, a seventeen three seventeen. Hey,

518
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 1: we're both going with seventeen to three trends, soar as

519
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 1: our second pick.

520
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 3: What could go wrong?

521
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: Back in Mason Rudolf at East's stick right, So give

522
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: me the steers plus two.

523
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 2: I actually just played this. I was waiting to see

524
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: if it would go to three, but it's not. So yeah,

525
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: it's down to two everywhere, so it's not going to

526
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: go to three, so I just put yeah, it's going yeah.

527
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: I like this. The reader loss is huge, the chase

528
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,239
Speaker 2: losses huge. Browning's played well, expiration date is coming. If

529
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 2: you look at adjusted completion per sets of expectation, like

530
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 2: all the tip balls to the balls that he's just

531
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: chucked down field, and then a lot of it, like

532
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: against the Colts he had two hundred and fift yards

533
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 2: passing two hundred and ten. We're after the catch. He's

534
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 2: getting a little bit too much love here, and the

535
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: Seiers will be able to run it now and they'll

536
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: probably break some explosives. And that's like nice for a

537
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 2: quarterback like Rudolph to rely on. And since twenty nineteen,

538
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: there's been ninety nine quarterbacks with at least one hundred dropbacks.

539
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 2: If you look at just at EPA per play, Rudolph

540
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: fifty fourth, Trubisky's forty nine. Pickett is fifty eighth, so

541
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 2: there's really no discernible difference. And Trubiskia has completely lost

542
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: the plot. I mean, he was lost out there, so

543
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 2: I would say that this is even an upgrade because

544
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: he was just he was completely lost. So I think

545
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 2: this will provide a boost to the offense. And by

546
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 2: the way, this is the fourth or fifth wall thermodynamics.

547
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: I think there's a fourth, but it's like informal. He

548
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 2: on the tom and has to finish within about five

549
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: on ad record, so he needs this win to do that.

550
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 2: Then he'll probably lose at Seattle and the Ravens will

551
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: somehow out that once he locked up, and then they'll

552
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: win at Baltimore and Week eighteen. The only thing that

553
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: scares me is just if like things are going wrong early,

554
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: because I think they'll show up, like the body language

555
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 2: on the Steelers sometimes, like especially the receivers. It's so bad.

556
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: But that's the Steelers voodoo, right, it's like the many.

557
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: You think things could not get any worse. Yeah, it's

558
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: like they just come there and surprise you. So, I mean, really,

559
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 1: we're betting on the defense if we're betting on the

560
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: Steelers anyway, right, We're not. We're not betting on George

561
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 1: Prickett's to suddenly turn his attitude around.

562
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, it should be a ton of pressure or

563
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: two off the edge against those Bengals tackles. I think

564
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: Orlando Brown is the highest willowed the highest pressure rate

565
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: in the NFL with any tackle although we'll talk about

566
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: this game later, I have to betch this. So most

567
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: pressures allowed by I left tackle this season Orlando Brown

568
00:28:55,080 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: fifty most sacks allowed backed in eleven, So fifty pressures

569
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 2: eleven sacks the Titans left tackle combo of Dillard, Duncan,

570
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: Ratten's and Petite Ferreer. I think they've had four guys

571
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: for left tackle, so fifty pressures is the most by

572
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 2: one and eleven sacks the Titans left tackle combo this

573
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: year's seventy six pressures allowed in twenty sacks. All right.

574
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 2: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

575
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 2: week sixteen Holiday Weekend six pack, I'm going with the

576
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons minus one at home against the Indianapolis Colts.

577
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: Catch a fallen knife here with the Falcons, everyone says

578
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: they're dead, coach getting fired. This is mainly a fate

579
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: of the Colts. I think the Colts are a fraud,

580
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 2: said him many times. And also Michael Pittman concussion protocol,

581
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 2: Taylor and mosstill questionable right to tackle, Braydon Smith dealing

582
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: with an injury. Last week the Falcons lost with the

583
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: pain Anthers. I think this is as as low as

584
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: they're going to go on the market. You got to

585
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 2: remember that game was played horrendous weather conditions. Ritter gave

586
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: it away with the worst pick I've ever seen in

587
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 2: an NFL game. And they were also playing with that

588
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 2: McGarry and Lindstrom to a really good offensive lineman. They

589
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 2: were also playing with that on Yamada. I think all

590
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 2: three will be back. They were close to all playing.

591
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: I thought they were actually going to play, and then

592
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 2: I was going to bet the Falcons and they didn't.

593
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: But they went through warm ups and so I would

594
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: assume they play here, which they basically couldn't run it

595
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 2: to the right side of the They just had to

596
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: try to run it to the left side of line

597
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 2: the entire game last week, and then they had no

598
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 2: one in the middle because they had to put the

599
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: streak got her, they had put him on ir. So

600
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: I think on on Yamada, McGarry and Lynstrom should be back,

601
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 2: which will provide a boost in the trenches. But the

602
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 2: Colts also one of the luckier teams in the NFL

603
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: for our luck rankings, and you're you're not gonna be

604
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 2: able to run on Atlanta, assuming on you Mada's back.

605
00:30:55,240 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: The Rundy's been good. Minshew has a flurry of turnovers coming.

606
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: He's fourteen touchdowns, eight interceptions on the air despite twelve

607
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: big time throws twenty one turnover worthy plays, and the

608
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: Colts look. I have a lot of respect for Shane Seiken.

609
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: I think he's all of a coach. I think the

610
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: Eagles really miss him. It's one of the things that's

611
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: going wrong there right now. But you know, without it's

612
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 2: gonna be up to Minshew. Without Pittman here, and there's

613
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: turnovers coming, and I think the Colts are just at

614
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: the peak of their market. Diet. Let's look at what

615
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: the Colts have done since October. First, they have five

616
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 2: losses to the Rams, Jags, Browns with PJ. Walker, Saints

617
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: and Bengals with Jake Browning. All those teams in the

618
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 2: playoff mix, even though they're Browning and Walker were two

619
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 2: of their losses. Fine, who are their six wins? Titans twice,

620
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: one of them in overtime because the punter got hurt,

621
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: the Panthers, the Patriots in London in a game they're

622
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: out gained by I think one hundred yards, the Bucks

623
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: and the Steelers. Those are their six wins. Over the

624
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: past two months or three months, I should say, thirteen

625
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 2: to five turnover margin in those games. Three of those

626
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 2: six teams that they beat have now benched their quarterbacks

627
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 2: that they've faced. They were outplayed and out gained in

628
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: four of the six on the season, five and two

629
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: in one possession games, the second most takeaways in the

630
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: league with twenty four. I mean, this team has just

631
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: been getting very fortunate and not beating anyone really respectable

632
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 2: since that Ravens win in overtime, getting very lucky in

633
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: close games. Minshew has some turnover regression coming, and the

634
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: defense is just bad. It's like the d line is

635
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: good and Kenny Moore is a hell of a slot,

636
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: but other than that, you can throw on them. And

637
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: I think that's where I really like this change to

638
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 2: going to Taylor Heinike, who will give them a better

639
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: shot of attacking downfield. And Rinnard just literally has given

640
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 2: away so many games are just with here's the ball,

641
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: like inexplicable turnover. And the Falcons have been on the

642
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: opposite of the spectrum of the Colts. They're two and

643
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 2: five over the past seven games, one in five in

644
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: games decided by five or less. They lost by five,

645
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: three on a final minute touchdown, two on a last

646
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 2: second field goal, four on a last minute touchdown, and

647
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 2: two on the last second field goal. Five losses by

648
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: combined sixteen points, four of which came in a final

649
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: second touchdown or field goal. So they've been getting extremely unlucky.

650
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: I don't think there as bad as people think. I

651
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: think they get this win at home. Give me Atlanta

652
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: Falcons minus one.

653
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.

654
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: I mean the Coast the Falcons are bad in terms

655
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: of like they're they're playing below their count level because

656
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: of a combination of Ritter and I think just Archur

657
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: Smith's coaching. He's out there, he's out thinking himself this year.

658
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,719
Speaker 1: But like I've been saying, this Coast team, You've been

659
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: saying it too. His Coast team is from I mean

660
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: we should Yeah, like you said, Stiching, great job, but

661
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: there's only so much you can do with this type

662
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: of team. And I think at some point it's gonna

663
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: come back. You know, they're gonna come back down to earth.

664
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: I don't know how Minchu's been getting away with this,

665
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: with this uh, we're just putting this ball up for grabs,

666
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: and he hasn't really paid as much as he should.

667
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: The Falcons defense playing well even without Grady Jarrett, so

668
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 1: that's big.

669
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: Here. They can stop the run, that's also big. So

670
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 3: I like this too. Mad.

671
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 1: I think the Falcons were like a two point home

672
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: dog at one point, So I'm mad I missed the line.

673
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, you're still kind of just picking them, picking

674
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: the Falcons to win the game. I mean, our our

675
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 1: NFC South future up in flames in these last two weeks.

676
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 3: I just yeah, it's it's been bad. I'll close it out.

677
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: Third pick, sixth overaw of the Week, sixteen to six pack,

678
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: going with the Cardinals plus four at the Chicago Bears.

679
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: This is tough for me because I love the Bears.

680
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 1: Think they're playing well, playing how I thought they would play.

681
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 3: For the entire year. But I also think.

682
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 1: The Bears have been getting lucky. Their defense is force

683
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: fourteen turnovers over the last four games, three or more

684
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: in each game. They've had a plus six turnover differential

685
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: over those last four games. And I think this Arizona

686
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: team is not as bad as it was earlier, and

687
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: the defense is still bad, but we know Chicago and

688
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: Justin Fields can turn the ball over and kind of

689
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: almost doesn't matter what defense they're facing. They kind of

690
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 1: play the same, like they're gonna make some big plays

691
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: and they're gonna have.

692
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 3: Some mind them and turnovers.

693
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: But you look outside this Ram debacle, which you say

694
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,280
Speaker 1: it's a circle of life. Every year Rams just dust

695
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. But outside of the Ram debacle, Cardinals beat

696
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: the Falcons as a home dog. They lose to Houston

697
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: on the road by five numerous chances to win or

698
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: be closer than that. They beat Pittsburgh by two scores

699
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: as a road dog, and then last week, respectable performance

700
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: against the Niners. I mean, Niners are going to stomp you.

701
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 1: You're one of the worst teams in the league. But

702
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: they did outgain San Francisco by thirty. They put up

703
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 1: over four hundred yards of offense on the Niners. They

704
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: put up twenty nine points, They ran the ball well,

705
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 1: and then you got, you know this kind of spot.

706
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 3: I'm going to keep backing it until it fails.

707
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray road underdog fifteen and four with two pushes

708
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,919
Speaker 1: in his career, seventy nine percent against the spread. And

709
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,919
Speaker 1: as much as I like this Bear team, I think

710
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: we're kind of at the top of the market. Here.

711
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 1: I don't think this Bear team should be favored by

712
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: more than a field goal, even though they're at home

713
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 1: against anyone at this point. So going with the Cardinals here,

714
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray road dog usually cashes.

715
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 3: Probably, I could see a Bears.

716
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: Win by three in this spot, So give me the

717
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: cards plus four anything over a field goal like it.

718
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got nothing to here, my darling Bears three

719
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 2: times don't see any value, and then this week I'll

720
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: rein nothing here for me, all right.

721
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 1: So to recap, stuck Baltimore plus five and a half

722
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 1: charges plus twelve Falcons minus one, I got the Vikes

723
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 1: plus three Steelers plus two cards plus four. So you

724
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 1: got let's see Lamar Easton Stick and Taylor Heinike. I

725
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: got Nick Mowens, Mason Rudolph and Kyler kind of, I mean,

726
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 1: Lamar is better than Kyra, but still kind of the

727
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: same quarterback situation here.

728
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 3: All right.

729
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: That is gonna wrap it for our week sixteen Sunday

730
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 1: six pack. Now it's time for the coaches pep talk.

731
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 1: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

732
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: a half feet again to night.

733
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 3: And it stopped right now for this week's pep talk.

734
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: We're going to the nineteen seventy six Film Network and

735
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: we're dedicating this one to the Pittsburgh Steelers and to

736
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers. I think those are two need

737
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:57,959
Speaker 1: a little bit of luck.

738
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 3: I don't have to tell you things bad.

739
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 2: Everybody knows things are bad.

740
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: There's nobody anywhere seems to know what to do, and

741
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: there's no end to it.

742
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 3: We know things are bad, worse than bad.

743
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, and all we

744
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: say is just leave us alone.

745
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not good to leave you alone.

746
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 3: I want you to get mad. You got to say,

747
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: I'm a human being. God damn it, my life has value.

748
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 2: I want you to get up now.

749
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: I want all of you to get up out of

750
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: your chairs and go to the window, open it and

751
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 1: stick your head out and.

752
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 3: Yell hire as bad as hell. I Do'm not ty

753
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 3: to take this anymore. Steeer's Chargers always loved that one.

754
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into our favorite total of the week.

755
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 1: All right, we've had a pretty thoud year and totals

756
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: over us seventeen and thirteen. You went first, stuck with

757
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: the six pack. I'll go first for the total. I

758
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: know We both like this one. Patriots Broncos under thirty

759
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: four and a half. Pretty simple, Probably gonna have freezing temperatures,

760
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: probably gonna have some snow. New England can stop the run.

761
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: Their number one in run defense, DVOA. That's what the

762
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: Broncos want to do. Broncos, you know, need to win out,

763
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: so I don't think they're gonna get too crazy here.

764
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 3: Patriots don't play too aggressively.

765
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 1: More one of the more conservative teams, even though they've

766
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 1: been one of the worst teams in the league. New

767
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 1: England road unders even you know, going back to the

768
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 1: Brady era, you know, when New England goes on the road,

769
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 1: they really don't take They just kind of go about

770
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: their business. Road unders for the Patriots are forty and

771
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: twenty three sixty seven percent all the way back to

772
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Non divisional primetime unders that have dropped at

773
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: least a point or more than a point. Excuse me,

774
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 1: which this total opened move It was thirty six and

775
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: a half, so it's down about two as we record

776
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 1: this early in the week. But non divisional primetime unders

777
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 1: that have dropped more than a point since the opener

778
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: fIF twenty seven and twenty four seventy percent since twenty sixteen.

779
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 3: Unders in freezing or below.

780
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: Temperatures, which it looks like we might get forecasts right

781
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 1: around thirty one thirty two right now. But unders and

782
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: freezing are below fifty eight and thirty seven sixty one

783
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: percent since twenty fifteen. Under thirty seven or less outdoors,

784
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 1: which you've seen a lout of this year especially, but

785
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: under thirty seven or less outdoors thirty two and twelve

786
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: seventy three percent over the past decade, and we know

787
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 1: about just primetime unders in general sixty four percent this year,

788
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: sixty five percent since the start of last year. I

789
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,839
Speaker 1: don't see many points being scored here. I don't see

790
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: many risks being taken here, and I think both teams

791
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 1: will want to run. New England can stop it. That

792
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: doesn't mean Denver's going to throw it around the yard.

793
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: So give me the uh Pats Broncos under thirty four

794
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: and a half.

795
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, this would have been mine if you weren't first.

796
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: You know the Patriots. If you look, you know the

797
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 2: Chiefs put twenty seven on them. But before then their

798
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 2: opponents scored eighteen, six, ten, ten, twenty, So you know,

799
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 2: unless they're pacing like an elite offense, which is the

800
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 2: bron because isn't there They're they're they're not giving up

801
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 2: any more than seventeen to twenty. So this plays out

802
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: to like, you know, seventeen thirteen type of game. And

803
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 2: the one thing they got you didn't mentioned is Antonio

804
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: Well Bailey's apps. He was among I think any quarterback

805
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 2: this year. He's dead lasted a just deep paper play.

806
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: Antonio Maffi is back in at guard and that's a disaster.

807
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: Courch Yeah hurt, he's on ir. Trent Brown could be

808
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: out again and his backup got hurt. So the offensive

809
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: line could be There was times earlier in the year

810
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 2: where the offense was completely dysfunct you couldn't do anything,

811
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: and it could be back to that with this offensive line.

812
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like that. For my favorite total, I'm

813
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 2: gonna go this one is just I don't have much

814
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 2: to say on it. I'm going Packers Panthers over thirty

815
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: six and a half. I think this should be like

816
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 2: thirty eight and a half. So this is mainly in numbers.

817
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 2: Playing thirty seven is kind of key. Get the twenty

818
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 2: to seventeen you're going over Panthers have played some really

819
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 2: low scoring games. Their offense is awful. Maybe they can

820
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 2: take some confidence from last week late in that game,

821
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 2: but the Packers defense is trending in the wrong direction.

822
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,720
Speaker 2: I just think this is a product of the scoring

823
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: environment and everything that we've seen with Panthers games of late.

824
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 2: So I just think this is too low and it's

825
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 2: below key. So give me the Packers Panthers over. Those

826
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 2: are the two totals I've bet this weekend, are the

827
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 2: Patriots under and the Packers over.

828
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 3: That's it takes some stones to bet Panthers overs. That

829
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:57,760
Speaker 3: is our totals.

830
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,439
Speaker 1: Pat Broncos under thirty four and a half, that Gus

831
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: Hackers Panthers over thirty six and a half. And that's

832
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 1: time for our favorite teaser of the week.

833
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

834
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 3: Don't tease me.

835
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 1: Both ten and five on teasers this year, So twenty

836
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: and ten overall. Stuck where you're going four Week sixteen.

837
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 2: Let's go with the classic one two and a half

838
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 2: point dogs up to eight and a half in lower

839
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 2: games of lower totals. Let's go to Titans. See this

840
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 2: every year. See I'll probably lose this game. They beat

841
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: the Eagles and need a way to keep the playoff

842
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 2: hopes alive. You're going to see a lot of these

843
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 2: teams losed as favorites, but lower scoring game probably a

844
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 2: ten starting here, which is fine. I mean, the offensive

845
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 2: line is a disaster, but uh, I'm very comfortable getting

846
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,280
Speaker 2: eight and a half at home. Rabile as a dog

847
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: as well in play, and then let's go to Texans.

848
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 2: I know Stroud's not gonna play. There's some other injuries

849
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on there because they're pretty banged

850
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: up Cashman Anderson Collins. But this is this Browns team

851
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 2: also has a ton of injuries. I mean, you're now

852
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 2: down three tackles potentially the Tonio guard, Potridge at center,

853
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 2: Walker at linebacker, Thornhill at safety, Delpit at safety, McCloud

854
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: at safety, Hurst of Barnco on the d line. They

855
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 2: can't run the ball right now. Flacco will make mistakes.

856
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 2: He's looked better than their other options, but he's still

857
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 2: thirty eight and you have to face the Rams and

858
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 2: jagged secondaries and the Jaguar. A ton of injuries his

859
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 2: first two starts, and last week he had a bunch

860
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 2: of big plays against the Bears, but he should have

861
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 2: had about four or five picks in that game. At

862
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 2: eight percent turnover worthy play rate, you know him. P J.

863
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 2: Walker and dtr are among fifty quarterbacks with fifty plus dropbacks.

864
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: They're all bottom ten just a EPA to play. So

865
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 2: I think Flacka was getting a little bit too much credit.

866
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 2: And look the seven Browns are seven and three since

867
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: the buy. They won by two on a miss San

868
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 2: fran field goal, one on a miss you know, a

869
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 2: miss call on the end of the Colts game. You know.

870
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 2: They beat Clayton Tune by twenty seven, won by three

871
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: on the last second field goal, two in the last

872
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 2: second field goal. They trailed by fourteen in the fourth,

873
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 2: three on the last second field goal. They trailed by

874
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 2: ten in the fourth and four, and their three losses

875
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 2: have come by thirty eight points.

876
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 3: If you remove the.

877
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,800
Speaker 2: Tune game, they're six and three with a negative twenty

878
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 2: five scoring margin. They trailed in the fourth and seven

879
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 2: of their past ten games, and they've gone seven and

880
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: three tier trailed in eight of those ten. Brown's road

881
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 2: defense thirty one points per game. They're two and four

882
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 2: on the road, with wins by one and two in

883
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: games that they trailed by double ditches in the fourth.

884
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: They've allowed twenty six, twenty four, thirty eight, thirty one,

885
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:53,919
Speaker 2: twenty nine, and thirty six on the road, and it's

886
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 2: not like they faced all lead offenses. It's the Colts, Broncos, Rams, Steelers, Seahawks,

887
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 2: and Ravens ah So yeah, I feel comfortable, even without Stroud,

888
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 2: that they can keep this within a touchdown. Wouldn't be

889
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 2: surprised if the Texans still won this game.

890
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this so Case Keenum case Keenum revenge,

891
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 1: revenge spot, even though he started his career with the

892
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 1: Texas but now he's back with the.

893
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: Browns a couple of years ago. But yeah, I like that.

894
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: I agree taking that as part of my teaser as well.

895
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 1: I think Cleveland's been getting super lucky. But even if

896
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 1: they are, not like they're they're playing all these post

897
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: games anyway.

898
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: It's Joe Flacco.

899
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: He's throwing like one bad pick per game at least,

900
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: so I yeah, I don't really see much difference between

901
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: these two Scott squads, which is banged up as as

902
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: Cleveland is. From my other leg, I'll go Steelers. Uh,

903
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 1: thought about the Titans, but I just feel like something

904
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 1: about the vibes, like I feel like Seahawks vibes have

905
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: been restored, or as Titan vibes, I think they just

906
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: got mathematically eliminated. I just worried at the bottom might

907
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: fall out a little bit on Tennessee, especially, you know,

908
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 1: if Levis doesn't go, because he seemed to be giving

909
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 1: him a kind of a boost. You know, he's coming

910
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 1: off that big, big win against Miami a couple of

911
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 1: weeks ago. So I just I just worried that you

912
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 1: might get one of those like throwing the towels to

913
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: howadays seasons over type of performances from Tennessee, whereas Seattle

914
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 1: is like you see that Pete Carroll speech, I don't know, Yeah,

915
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 1: it's funny because I'm like, actually, if you played better

916
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: in the first three quarters, Like, yeah, I don't know

917
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: if that's the best message to give to these young,

918
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: impressionable football players, but hey, whatever works. But yeah, that's

919
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 1: that's the only reason I don't want us both to

920
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 1: both of our teases to be tied to a potential

921
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:56,280
Speaker 1: Titans like meltdown. So I'll go Steers because I feel

922
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: like we've already had what three of these in a row,

923
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 1: Steeer's got a at least.

924
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 2: Be close this week.

925
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 1: So we'll go Steelers Texas for me, Titans Texas for you,

926
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: and I'll try to get to eleven and five each.

927
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 3: As a reminder.

928
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM use bonus

929
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 1: code Action act Iowan when signing up get up to

930
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 1: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets.

931
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:20,399
Speaker 3: It's your first bet.

932
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 1: Loses New users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

933
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and why

934
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 1: owning terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

935
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: Gambling problem Call one eight hundred Gambler. Time for an

936
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 1: underdog money line parlay.

937
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

938
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

939
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: You've been carrying on this you got seven, I got

940
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: three this year, just the bay. I can't believe the

941
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 1: Bears coutn't hold on last week and then like I've

942
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 1: been yeah, I've been catching.

943
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 2: On that fourth down, bro.

944
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:06,839
Speaker 1: That was a great play though, I mean that was

945
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:08,919
Speaker 1: I'll give him, I give him like that's the play

946
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 1: you just lived with, but the just like everything else

947
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 1: and then the moone just in his in his bread bat.

948
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 1: I mean, he's had a massive fall off in the

949
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 1: first half, dropped.

950
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 3: Oh he's walking, bro. That was. That was.

951
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: I don't think I've seen one that bad since uh

952
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 1: last year. I think this was actually when the like

953
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: I started the Panthers whispering, when Mike Evans with Brady

954
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: threw him like a perfect deep shot and they weren't

955
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 1: even hitting deep shots and he just drops it.

956
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 3: And they end up it was like twenty one to

957
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 3: three to the Panthers.

958
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, that that that was. I mean, tonyan Man, that was.

959
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 1: He's been losing some time to Marceades Lewis. I could

960
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,040
Speaker 1: see why you can't. If Tanyan can't give you that play,

961
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 1: what is he really giving you? Not a better blocker

962
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: than Lewis, that's for sure.

963
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 3: So uh but I digress. We're going four week sixteen.

964
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 2: Christian Watson. I think last year had one that.

965
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,399
Speaker 1: Was, oh yeah, opening the first play of the year,

966
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: first play of the year, first play of the year,

967
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 1: and that I remember that because I was on I

968
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 1: think we were probably all on the Vikings as like

969
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 1: a home do.

970
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 3: It didn't matter.

971
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: I think Green Bay still lost by multiple scores. But yeah,

972
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,280
Speaker 1: that that game might have turned out just the.

973
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:19,920
Speaker 2: Tenor of that a couple of minutes of the season.

974
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: Rot.

975
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm pretty sure it was the first player, at

976
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 1: least the first pass of the year. It was like

977
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 1: a play action, perfectly drawn up deep shot. Christian Watson drops.

978
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's yeah, yeah, memorable. That's right up there.

979
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 1: But where are you going?

980
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 2: Uh? I'm gonna go with the Cowboys against the Dolphins.

981
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: I think that this will be a really good game,

982
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: should be close. I expect the Cowboys the better effort

983
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 2: here against Miami, who still hasn't beat anyone with a

984
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 2: post all year. I don't think that that makes them fraudulent,

985
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: but they have some injuries, especially on the offensive line.

986
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 2: That could be the difference the Cowboys defensive line. Right.

987
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 2: If they get a lead in this game and you

988
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 2: can pressure Tua into some mistakes, that could be the

989
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 2: biggest mismatch in this game. So yeah, I'll take Dallas.

990
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm thinking about taking Dallas just straight up on

991
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 1: the spread or whatever, trying to see exactly where Miami's

992
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: at the injuries.

993
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 3: Obviously Tyreek Hill that would be the big one. But yeah,

994
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 3: I thought I thought, I.

995
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: Mean, luckily I didn't actually invest, but I thought Miami wouldn't.

996
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 3: I didn't think I thought the Jet would be able

997
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 3: to keep it closer. I'll put it that way.

998
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: It's Miami last week, but it might set up well

999
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 1: for a kind of fade Miami.

1000
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 3: Spot by well on Dallas.

1001
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,399
Speaker 1: So I'll be check the app, but I'll be I'll

1002
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 1: be looking out monitoring that one.

1003
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with.

1004
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 1: Speaking of the Jets, I'm gonna go Washington here just

1005
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:51,879
Speaker 1: because I mean, you're gonna get either can Cuss, Zach

1006
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 1: Wilson and some of these quarterbacks coming off these concussion protocols.

1007
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if they're letting them come back, but

1008
00:51:58,200 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if they should be or you get

1009
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 1: Trevor Simmy. So while Washington is just is how definitely

1010
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 1: starting for Washington, it.

1011
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:10,720
Speaker 3: Sounds like, yeah, so they said he was obviously maybe

1012
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 3: a shorter Leach. I don't see why. I mean, at

1013
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 3: this point of the year, you started him.

1014
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 1: For thirteen games, just you might as well see what

1015
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 1: you got for the last three. But maybe maybe they

1016
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 1: wanted that. Maybe they wanted to see what like the enemy,

1017
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 1: you know, and Brissette could do. I don't know, maybe

1018
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 1: that was the motivation. It was kind of odd to

1019
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 1: me that they benched him. But either way, we always

1020
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: talk about this moneyline, dog, what do you want? Uncertainty.

1021
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 1: There's uncertainty both.

1022
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 3: Of these sides. And in terms of quarterback how long

1023
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 3: is how is leash? You know?

1024
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 1: I think if Washington makes a quarterback, it's like if

1025
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: there's a quarterback change for Washington, it probably benefits Washington

1026
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 1: more because Brissette was better than how and you know,

1027
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 1: probably less. The Jets are preparing as much for that.

1028
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: So this Jet team great defense, but they can still

1029
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: lose to anybody just because of their offense. And especially

1030
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 1: if I if I'm getting a chance to get Trevor,

1031
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 1: Simmy and as and as a favorite, I'll fade that.

1032
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: So nothing nothing major X's and those wives other than

1033
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: two bad teams, Washington getting plus one forty, I'll take it.

1034
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it, and I hope I see

1035
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 2: zero plays of that game.

1036
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's another bad one.

1037
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 1: Thought about the under thought about the under in that game,

1038
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: but just not sure exactly who's playing yet and you know,

1039
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: more kind of model the turnovers, which you know with

1040
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 1: the Jets and Howe and just could get ugly. So

1041
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: but we can kind of leaning under at that on

1042
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 1: that game as well. All right, let's get to so, yeah,

1043
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 1: we do the parlay first, Dallas plus one five at

1044
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,720
Speaker 1: bet MGM, Washington plus one forty at better MGM parlay

1045
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 1: goes together plus three ninety two, so just under four

1046
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 1: to one. Now it's time for the best of the

1047
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 1: rest the games we haven't covered in any other segment,

1048
00:53:55,680 --> 00:54:01,919
Speaker 1: but are still, as they say, meaningful to some That's

1049
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 1: going to be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1050
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 1: to some of you, so you know what I mean.

1051
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 3: All right.

1052
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:13,400
Speaker 1: First up, we got a matchup of two Florida teams,

1053
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: Jaguars at the Bucks, so not a bunch of not

1054
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:19,360
Speaker 1: a lot of travel for the Jags, but Trevor Lawrence

1055
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 1: in concussion protocol Bucks favor by a point the total

1056
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:24,240
Speaker 1: forty two and a half.

1057
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 3: Tough to really handicap this.

1058
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 1: I don't think Lawrence has been officially ruled out because

1059
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 1: we've seen these quarterbacks on the concussion protocol come back

1060
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 1: quicker later in the year. It's going to be a

1061
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 1: short week because they played on Thursday, I mean, excuse me,

1062
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 1: on Sunday night football, so I would doubt he gets cleared.

1063
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,959
Speaker 1: But I don't know any thoughts on this one. Baker

1064
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 1: Mayfield playing well for what it's worth, but any thoughts

1065
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: on this one.

1066
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Campbell and Sisco back of practice today, Lawrence and

1067
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 2: Jay Jones were not. If Lawrence and Zay Jones are playing,

1068
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 2: I'll be looked to buy the Jags here, But too

1069
00:54:56,880 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 2: much uncertainty. Line's probably right there, it is now, given

1070
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,759
Speaker 2: everything that's going on. So yeah, it's too hard to

1071
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 2: say anything right now.

1072
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 1: Raiders at the Chiefs chief favored by ten total forty

1073
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:15,280
Speaker 1: one and a half. Raiders coming off to that big

1074
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 1: win on Thursday against the Charges. Long rest for them,

1075
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 1: but kind of a little bit of a letdown spot.

1076
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 1: But the market's also pricing that in with giving the

1077
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 1: Chiefs ten with a total of forty one. I mean

1078
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: and lean Raiders, but at the same time, never want

1079
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 1: a really better team coming off a forty point win either,

1080
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: So probably stay away from me.

1081
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 3: What about What do you think?

1082
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is this market's pretty right. We'll

1083
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 2: leaned under a little bit over forty one and the

1084
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 2: Raiders a bit I make it like eight nine, but

1085
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 2: I think this is pretty fair. Chiefs have also had

1086
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 2: some like positive regression coming on the offense. But question

1087
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 2: is else he washed? Is he getting away?

1088
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if you could say was.

1089
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 3: I'm saying like he's a peg down. He's on a

1090
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 3: hill twilight.

1091
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, like a little pegg down, Like he's

1092
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: not so Like I was talking to Kerner about this because,

1093
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: you know, for for projections for fantasy, and uh, the

1094
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 1: reason Kelsey has been immaculate as a fantasy player, and

1095
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:27,839
Speaker 1: this applies to real life as well.

1096
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 3: If you have a guy running ninety.

1097
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,919
Speaker 1: Percent of the routes, you know, running around her ninety

1098
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 1: percent of the dropbacks as Patrick Mahomes' top target. And

1099
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:40,279
Speaker 1: now rah Rice last game actually ran around on ninety

1100
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 1: three percent of the drop backs the whole year. He'd

1101
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 1: been like fifty sixty percent for she Rice getting targeted

1102
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,880
Speaker 1: twenty six percent of his route, Kelsey twenty four. And

1103
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 1: that's like, that's not just the usage that that you know,

1104
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:53,479
Speaker 1: it's who's getting open more too. So I think from

1105
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 1: that perspective, you are starting to see that again, because

1106
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 1: you know this is not Tyreek Hill, which you know

1107
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 1: and now not even Rick Hill didn't really get a

1108
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,480
Speaker 1: higher target rate than Kelsey consistently.

1109
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Kelsey a little bit. I think

1110
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:06,919
Speaker 3: he's hurting.

1111
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 1: I think he's I think they're probably trying to limit

1112
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 1: how much they rely on him until the playoffs. He's

1113
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 1: still out there, but sometimes more than more as a decoy.

1114
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: But I think we won't really be able to truly

1115
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 1: answer that question until they get into like the playoffs.

1116
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 1: And then if we see Kelsey with these you know,

1117
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: five catches for forty yards again and the Chiefs are

1118
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 1: still struggling on offense, then then we know.

1119
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 3: But yeah, it looks a little a little businesses.

1120
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 2: He's got that potential tailor swift money coming to his

1121
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 2: little business decision with that alligator arm in the end

1122
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: zone last week.

1123
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, No, it's it's just you know what

1124
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 1: it is that Kelsey though, he's such an emotional player

1125
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: that all it takes, all it's gonna take is like

1126
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: somebody to like make a big deal of this, like

1127
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 1: in the public, and like he'll he'll.

1128
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 3: Go like too hard next game. I got, Yes, that's

1129
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 3: what all. Yeah, Like, I'm just that's how I say.

1130
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not ready to, you know, called the

1131
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: funeral for Kelsey yet, but yeah, it's kind of raising

1132
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 1: my eyebrow. Li And Kerner even was like heading into

1133
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 1: last week, he was like, you know, if there's ever

1134
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,680
Speaker 1: a time to like not have Travis Kelcey rank number

1135
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: one tight end, it might be now. So I mean

1136
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 1: everyone's kind of noticing it a little bit. So definitely

1137
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 1: something I'm watching. But yeah, the last game we have here,

1138
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 1: Giants at the Eagles, Eagles by twelve total forty two.

1139
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is to me, this is a

1140
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: get right spot for the Eagles.

1141
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: Don't love laying twelve, but I don't think I don't

1142
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: think this is a spot where you want to try

1143
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: to back the Giants here.

1144
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 3: The Eagles have been just a brutal gauntlet of matchups.

1145
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,439
Speaker 1: Now they get a division opponent that they they know well,

1146
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 1: even though the quarterback is different, and that they trounced

1147
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 1: what three times, well twice last year and then I

1148
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 1: think they played in Week seventeen. So yeah, I would

1149
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 1: lean Eagles here.

1150
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 3: What about you?

1151
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Eagles or nothing? This is you know, you'll get

1152
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 2: their best step here Christmas Day. The crowd, the D

1153
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 2: line can dominate this game. Giants won't be able to

1154
00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:07,080
Speaker 2: run it. I mean passing down. Stavida is gonna get

1155
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 2: sacked a ton a D line, crowd, noise, and then

1156
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 2: Eagles get a lead and then it's gonna snowball. I

1157
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 2: think it's Eagles blowout.

1158
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's what it feels like.

1159
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 1: All right, that is a rap for us. Thank you

1160
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: for listening. We'll be back here every Thursday all season long.

1161
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: You can hear more of me this week with my

1162
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: guy Kerner talking Fantasy dfs all that good stuff on

1163
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Flex podcast.

1164
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 3: Also, we got the Fantasy.

1165
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 1: Preview excuse me, the Player Projections episode right here on

1166
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,840
Speaker 1: this channel with Kerner and I don't forget to check

1167
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 1: out the Action Network discord server link at the episode description.

1168
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:43,800
Speaker 3: And of course Stuck we'll talk college football on.

1169
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus, which drops on Friday morning. You

1170
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 1: can find Stuck on X at Stucky two. I'm on

1171
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: X at Chris Raybon. We're at those same handles on

1172
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 1: the free award winning Action Network app.

1173
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 3: Happy holidays to everybody. Let's get this money. Let's give

1174
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 3: this money. Be generous and stay saved out there. Peace.

1175
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 2: I'll be all. That's cheers. Let's Go.

1176
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:18,160
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1177
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1178
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1179
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 2: hundred gambler