WEBVTT - Outlook for Big Tech and Trump's Economic Team 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:16.320 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.799 at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:23.280 the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:26.160 your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:30.440 Joining us now Gene Monster in Minneapolis, obviously iconic with 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:31.400 Piper Jeff. 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:34.720 For years ago. Surety could join us from deep Water 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:35.720 Asset Management. 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:41.560 Dressed appropriately, Dan ives here a calar milage with aviator. 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:46.520 Very nice. I'm awake, Gene Monster. I'm gonna start with you. 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:51.160 Here's ives. He talks to Barons yesterday, Adam Clark, and 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.280 he says, Apple, Microsoft and in video will be worth 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:58.080 four trillion. We're not that far away, are we, gene Monster. 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:01.480 How do they get the four million? Is it cash flow? 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.080 Is it earnings or is it hype? 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:09.080 I think it's probably two thirds expanding multiple and quickly 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:11.319 I'll touch that in a second. I think it's probably 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.840 one third expanding earnings when you look at like's just 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.760 focusing on Apple. The expectations for this year, surprisingly are 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:21.039 the iPhone growth is three percent. It's come down for 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:24.080 five percent. This is for fiscal twenty five, so that 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.320 number has been declining. It's eight percent for fiscal twenty six. 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.720 So the I think that there's upside of those numbers. 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:33.080 Dan and I can talk about how we get there, 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:35.240 but I think that's one piece of it. But the 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.600 second piece is what I continua believe. We've talked about 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.759 this for the past year. This this three to five 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:44.119 year bowl market. So we're probably in the early part 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.560 of the second year that's going to continue to go 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.240 up and then a spectacular bursting of the bubble. And 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:51.440 just put some quick numbers around this time is that 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:53.720 if you look at the Nasdaq, it's kind of trading 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.240 mid to highest twenty percent on next year earnings. At 0:01:57.240 --> 0:01:59.240 the peak of the dot com bubble, it traded at 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:00.960 one hundred times. We're not going to get back to 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:04.400 thee hundred by any measure, but I think you could 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:07.360 see a four multiple of fifty as just the hype 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.880 around AI is just going to become intoxicating. 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.400 Jennives I got on the Bloomberg Apple free cash flow 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:16.600 pre pandemic sixty billion and they go out now to 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.600 one hundred and ten billion. My thesis here is everybody's 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:23.440 looking at the hype and the Dan Ives romance and 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:27.440 Gene monster flying around, Jim Cook meeting with King Charles 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:29.000 forget about it. 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:32.560 Is it just financial oomph that is making mag seven go. 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:34.480 Yeah, and look, I mean me and Jim talked about 0:02:34.480 --> 0:02:37.200 this before. The biggest thing is, even when you'll get Apple, 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:42.040 you're not factoring in into numbers the AIS services piece 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.960 as is essentially a new app store gets built on 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:48.320 Apple intelligence. What that means from a services perspective, we 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:51.040 think that could ultimately add ten to fifteen percent more 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:53.799 to services and Tom that's why I think a year 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.160 from now you're looking at four and a half trillion. 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.760 What I believe over the coming years we're going to 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:05.000 do five trillion dollar mark caps as we think about Godfather, Bi, Genen, Nvidia, Apple, 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:06.200 and ultimately Microsoft. 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:09.840 So Gene, I'd love to get your thoughts just kind 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.240 of because I know you've covered Apple for a long time. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:16.360 You've seen the product cycle for this company over decades. Here, 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.880 how do you frame out for your clients the AI 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.200 play for Apple. 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:24.840 It's twofold. 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.760 I think the first is just this kind of the 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:31.400 tailwind with Dan's talking about, I think that injecting AI 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:32.680 into twenty percent of. 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:33.519 The world's population. 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.160 A couple of days ago was a big deal about 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:39.400 what they've what they added to the eighteen point two upgrade. 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:40.200 So I think that that. 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:43.560 First part, Paul, is just this hardware growth and as 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.120 I mentioned, the streets at three percent, what does it 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:48.920 mean for the business injecting AI into this This is 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:51.080 the first time software service. 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.640 You know, this AI features is really the selling point. 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:56.800 I think it can be eight percent growth and we 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:59.360 can have meaningful upside to iPhone over the next year. 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.760 And then the second phase, Dan touchdown it around. 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:03.480 Kind of what. 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:05.720 Happens with the app store is that you can see 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.160 it in the dropdown menu. If you start digging around 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.920 a eteam point two, you can see within the Apple 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:14.200 Intelligence menu there's a point where you can pick which 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:15.600 LLM you're using. 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:19.120 So they're gonna add other ms. They will add other. 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.920 Ones that are pay for so you upgrade, then they'll 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:25.000 make more on their app store. So I think that's 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:28.200 the second chapter hardware. First second is the app store. 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:28.799 Gene Monster. 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:31.200 Dan ives with us for this entire half hour, and 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:32.760 I've already had three emails. 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:35.000 Yes, folks. In our next. 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:39.120 Block, we'll cover Tesla Paul continue here on mag seven 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:40.760 X Tesla. 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.440 Hey Dan, we've actually heard over the last I guess 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:46.680 A couple of Quarters investors asked the question of Okay, 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.880 I get the AI spend. I see the numbers. I 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:52.640 got a sense of it's big and it's incremental. How 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.919 about the returnal in that investment? That's now a question 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:56.680 that people are hearing. 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:57.920 How do you talk to your. 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.719 Clients about what are we getting all this is spending 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:01.120 on AI? 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.840 Look, I think, hey, if you look at Salesforce dot 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.400 com and you what was happening in software? They were 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.080 waiting in line to get into an AI party while 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:12.880 Jensen's on the dance floor, Elison of course cook and 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:16.159 now behind those velvet ropes they're like Benioff, come on 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:18.880 in now. So now software is part of the AI 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.440 part because of the use cases, and that's why it 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.600 continues to be ten pm in the AI party that 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:25.600 goes to four am. 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.359 Okay, I got to switch to Microsoft because you know 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:29.719 we have this apple. 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:33.080 The world's gonna end. Shyness terrible. I's just saying shut 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.480 up and buy it. Muster's saying shut up and buy it. 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.920 Moonshot Q three Q four, and it's like Sachia nan 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.560 Della's falling off the face of the earth. Dana, I's 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.920 an update on Microsoft into the quarterly report. 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.560 Get the popcorn out, because this is just the start 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.280 of more and more enterprises side. 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:50.279 What are they doing right? 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.680 I thought she had GPT was troubled because in the 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.680 backyard of Microsoft are more and more enterprises. They're moving 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:01.440 on copil, moving to AI from the cloud perspective. This 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.880 is really what I've used the more and more the 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:07.400 catalyst going into next year, the hyperscalees not just Microsoft. 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:12.240 Gen's talked about again, Google, Amazon, this is now the 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.440 second third derivative of the AI revolution. 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.640 Gene monster on Google sort of off my radar here, 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:19.599 I mean Search, the government's going to. 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:20.400 Go after them. 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.560 Do you have a confidence in an entire and total 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.400 Google versus the split up that we hear from both 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.400 Republicans and Democrats. 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.120 I just got to say one thing about Dan for 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:36.080 a second before I answer that Tom. No one illustrates 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:39.440 as a better language of kind of illustrating what goes 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.800 on than Dan. So I just appreciate that at the party, 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.880 because that's exactly what's going on. Google has a seat 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:48.200 at that party. They're also behind that red velvet road. 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.239 You mention that party two wearing his purples. 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:55.839 But Paul, you got to take the next question. 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:03.719 So Google, in of Google, basically the pressure point on 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.000 this is, I don't think it's around regulation. 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:07.520 I don't think anything's gonna happen there. I think it's 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:08.679 really what happens with search. 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:12.640 And coming back to what happened in the September quarter, 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.720 I think it was the most important number, that search 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.120 number that Google has had in the last decade. Specifically 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:20.280 is that they saw on acceleration in the US after 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:23.320 one full quarter of these AI overviews. And so what 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.080 that meant is by them injecting a at the top 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.480 of the search results, that they were still getting more 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.640 search revenue. And that's kind of the keeps what has 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:35.520 been keeping investors up at night. The other beautiful part 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.680 about the Google story is, you know they have these 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.960 other bets. I think what happened related to, you know, 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.520 their quantum computing that a two hundred and fifty billion 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:45.600 in market cap this week. 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:47.040 That was probably a little bit of a stretch. 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.080 But what they have around Weymoa we can talk about 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:50.880 in the next segment. 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.640 What's going on there and relevant to to Tesla. 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:55.680 But I just think Google is in a great position 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:57.440 for this AI party. 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:01.160 Paul YouTube is on fire, on fire and the live 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:06.280 chat thank you HL can't wait for Dan ives. 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:07.280 I know what is that about. 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.600 But also look at Paul's sports shock. I think no 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:11.960 one's talking about that from. 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:14.800 County Donegal, Ireland. 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.360 This sports shock more amazing as Sweeney's work three fridays 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:20.480 in a row. He's trying to be like the Japanese 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:22.600 to get to the four day work we get built 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:23.440 out of the family. 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.840 Paul continues, Hey, Gene, I'm gonna ask you to rehash 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:28.320 once again. I kind of do it every time you 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:32.080 come on because it's so important for our listeners and viewers. 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:37.760 Put it into context like you can do AI versus say, 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.520 I don't know the internet electricity, how big is AI 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:42.520 in your mind? 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.480 So the framework we use is that you know, at 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:50.640 the highest level, what's been the most impactful has been electricity, 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.839 and we put that at a scale of zero to 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:55.640 one hundred. At one hundred, I mean, it's just hard 0:08:55.679 --> 0:09:00.600 to argue that piece. But I would put mobile around 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:03.680 twenty five. I think the PC probably around thirty five 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.800 In terms of the importance, I understand these technologies stack 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:08.600 on top of each other, but I just think about 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.280 in terms of value creation what they can do for investors. 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.640 Put the Internet at fifty and I've put AI at 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:18.120 ninety ninety five. If not for so, I think we're 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:20.720 I just want to frame in one other piece just 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.600 around this, like you know, you hear Dan and I 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.719 talk about this enthusiasm, this party that's going on, and 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:29.880 parties have a tendency to end, and when they end, 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.160 there's a hangover after it, and we're going to have 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.040 that in terms of a spectacular burst in the bubble. 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:39.720 But I think this party is still appreciate that analogy, Dan, 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:41.240 I think the party is still raging. And I just 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.400 want to give an example. Broadcom this morning up seventeen 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.360 percent in the pre market. They talked about their twenty 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:51.240 twenty seven numbers effectively being like forty to fifty billion. 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:54.240 For their AI revenue was twelve billion. And so this 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:59.000 concept that like the hardware companies, the NVIDIAs, the broad cooms, 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:01.800 that they're going to somehow hit a wall here in 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:04.560 late twenty four or early twenty five, it's not happening. 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:06.080 I want to get this thing because we really want 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:07.000 to focus on Tesla. 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:07.240 Here. 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:10.719 This incredible call to these two players here. But let 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:12.319 me start with you, Dan Eyves and Gene. I want 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:14.320 you to pick up on the same thing. I want 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.079 you to forget about the media. I want to forget 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.960 about you. And down in Florida, Belski's dressed in white. 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.000 He looks like neyrou at a convention in the sixties. 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.719 Ives is dressed up looking like a fruit loop. And 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:29.480 you know, Munster, it's all those romance of media and 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:33.920 that you go into a top five long only buy 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:38.640 side equity shop and you're talking to heavyweights about their 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:40.240 over commitment to mag seven. 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:44.000 How do they respond, Dan Ives to your enthusiasts. 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.640 The first thing I say is stop trying to find 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.640 AI in your spreadsheet, because that's how many have missed 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.440 every transmissional tech name the last twenty years. And two, 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.000 when you look at what's happening here, it's about some 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.359 of the parts, Like I would argue, like the autonomous 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.160 piece for Tesla, that's not and I'd say that's still 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.480 the most under value I play in the market day 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:05.400 not being fully valued. You look at what the ultimate 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:09.000 valuation and what this is going to do from financially 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:12.760 right from mag seven is still massively unappreciated, and it 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.240 speaks to why I believe next year tech stocks are 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:16.160 up into the twenty. 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:16.839 Five or Gene Monster. 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:18.880 When you go into the CFA crew at a long 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:24.239 only buyside shop, pick your victim, Federated Fidelity, whatever, Genemunster, 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.320 what's your terminal value? Can you go out five year vision, 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:28.600 seven year vision? 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:30.840 Yeah? 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.040 I think that those are hard to you know, midling 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.480 out five years is difficult, but that's ultimately where money 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.520 is made. And to answer your question on the five 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:40.959 year vision on this, as I would simplify just kind 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.640 of across megacap is that there is going They're going 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:48.360 to grow faster for longer, as simple as that sounds. 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.920 But again I think the broadcom is representative of that. 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.719 And so when I think about what that value creation is, 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:55.000 I'm generally looking like a. 0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:55.760 Year two years out. 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.080 My opinion is, for example, a year from now apples 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.360 three fifteen. I think that, uh so, I think that 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.400 there continues to move higher. 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:06.000 Gene Monster with us and Dan, I thanks for the 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:10.520 huge response, particularly out on YouTube. Greatly appreciate that. Dan, 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.920 I'm going to talk to short on Tesla, You're completely opposed. 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.920 I got one hundred and forty one thousand employees, I 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.400 got single digit revenue growth. 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.600 I got a pe of maybe one hundred and seventy. 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:28.800 How do you equate that to MAGA mag seven success? 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.920 How do you get those ratios which tell you south 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:34.760 into your call north? 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.200 Sure? So I think on Tesla it continues to really 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.160 be about autonomous and AI. And when you think about 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.360 this story going forward, it's going to be a full 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:50.240 self driving penetration autonomous and what I've ultimately, Oh, I 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:50.560 have it. 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:55.360 I think you wouldn't talk to Gene Monster then. 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.560 So look, I think over the next four to five 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.040 years there will be a point where Sweeney is getting 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.560 into a cybercab, no driver taken him to play golf. 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:10.040 That that will happen next four to five years. 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.920 All right? That that I mean, if that happens, that 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:13.760 is a whole new game. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:16.280 But that's our And again, the whole issue is that 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:21.080 between the Musk Trump romance. The reason it's so important 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.439 for the stock is because now regulation in this country 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.120 is going to rapidly change in terms of autonomous, and 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:31.119 that we believe a trillion dollars alone for Tessa's valuation 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.200 just based on autonomous. 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:34.599 Jane, get us up to speed on this, and you 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.600 come at this from loop Venture's a deep water asset 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:42.319 where you've really dived into the entrepreneurial part of technology. 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:48.280 Do you buy the ives story. 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:47.120 One hundred percent? 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.000 I think that the reality is is that if you're 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.319 born today, there's no chance, and you're gonna born in 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:55.200 the US today, there's no chance, and you're gonna ever 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:56.320 need a driver's license. 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:58.680 If you're eight years old today, there's no chance. 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.400 And Jeane talk about what you talk about with your kid, 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.079 like how you always say like your kid, like with 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:05.720 your kid? 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:10.160 Yeah, since she I have a daughter, she's eight years old, 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.040 and I had a bet when just after she was 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.480 born that she would never have a driver's license, and 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:16.960 a couple of weeks ago. 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:17.440 I'd had. 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.040 I tried the latest version of Tesla FSD for twenty 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:26.760 minutes and had a couple interventions. It's not there yet, 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:29.520 but it is remarkable the progress that's making. I think 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.000 that the whole conversation around Tesla, very few people are 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.760 actually experiencing how far along they are, and then you 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.560 layer on top of that the fact that humans are 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.600 becoming worst drivers forty thousand plus people lose their lives 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.720 a year and auto accents in the US alone, And 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:49.080 then you layer on top of that what GM Cruise 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.800 announced this week basically backing off from autonomy. It just 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:57.480 leaves this wide open opportunity for Tesla to really be 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.720 I think one of the two key players within autonomy, 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.640 and so I think that that's not fully appreciated and 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:04.520 shares the Tesla So Dan, when. 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.720 We think about the Tesla story, I mean I part 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.040 of me, the cynic of me, thinks Elon Musk is 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.520 trying to get me to take my focus away from 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.920 bending metal, which is a low margin business, competitive business, 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.360 to other bets to use a tern but you think 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.560 those other bets like autonomous driving, robotaxis are real. 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:24.320 But I view its similar to like as Keen has 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.080 talked about for a decade. It's like with Apple, but 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.320 originally and Jeans talking about it as well, you just 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.040 looked at Apple as a hardware player smartphone. Yeah, but 0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:35.120 what's been the key to the evaluation why it's gonna 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.200 be the first one the four trillion dollar mark Club. 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:40.680 It's because of services. It's because so when you think 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:45.520 about Tesla, I would compare Autonomous the software FS to 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.760 Apple services relative to that creuper Tino story. 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.120 That's why it's so important. 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.280 Seven million vehicles out there, you have ten million vehicles 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:54.400 over the next year or two. 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:55.560 And even when you look at. 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.360 Waimo, which is a Google Play, those are two hundred 0:15:58.360 --> 0:15:58.880 thousand hours. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.320 I got to get this in yesterday. We had great coverage. 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.000 Thank you to our team for linking it up with 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.400 the President elect at the New York Stock Exchange. 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.680 The billionaire of the United States was not there. 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:11.920 I answer the critics of r and Musta and ives. 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:16.400 Is he getting taxpayer support for all of his ventures? 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.760 Is he getting a free ride off the back of 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:19.960 the American textpayer? 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:21.200 I disagree. 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:23.560 I would argue you're talking about he made a bet 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.640 for the ages with Trump and essentially iced out if 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.920 you look at last administrations when it comes to by 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:33.240 an administration, especially around EV's and now you're gonna really 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.480 see him doubling down and within the Beltway, there's gonna 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:41.240 be major changes. And when that knock of the door happens. 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.960 It's must Geene monster, give me an EV update we 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.520 got we won't want the Chinese in Europe's I read 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:48.960 about BMW and Mercedes. 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.720 It's a train wreck basically and no pun intended. 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:56.200 Gee monster, What is the optimal EVS strategy for our 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:57.680 listeners across America? 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.120 If you're thinking about buying ev buy in the next 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.480 two weeks in the US, because what could happen with 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.040 those tax credits as far as like what's happening with 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.879 the broader market. Just looking at Tesla, for example, units 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.240 are basically going to be flatish for calendar twenty four. 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:17.680 Must talk about twenty to thirty percent growth for next year, 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:21.680 so a huge rebound that's surprised analysts, investors. The street 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.800 right now is looking for fourteen percent, so kind of 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.600 saying that Elon's being too optimistic on that. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.360 But I think the big picture, Tom, is. 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:34.240 That we're coming through the EV winter here into starting 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.479 to be a spring, and ultimately I think that evs 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:39.760 just are naturally a better way to move around. It's 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.960 not a political statement, it's a it's basically a physics statement, 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:45.119 and I think that the free hand of the market 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:46.919 will prove out that it's a more efficient way to 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:50.879 move which will ultimately have evs. I considered an undeniable 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.120 truth that eventually all vehicles will be electric. 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:57.080 Gene I'm cruising around the Jersey Shore with my vestments scooter. 0:17:57.119 --> 0:18:00.439 I'm getting like eighty miles to the gollon you and 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.119 Dan ives. But Dan, tell me about where you think 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.000 ultimate demand is for electric vehicles, because I feel like 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:09.520 we're in a bump in the road kind of moment here. 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.439 It's a bump in the road, but our view is 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.960 that if you get to twenty percent ed penetration, you know, 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:18.920 call it over the next four or five years, that 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:21.720 changes the game for Tesla and changes the game really 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.040 for the industry. But you look what's happening in Detroit 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:26.679 with the Big three. They're definitely starting to hedge that 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.880 strategy in terms of especially when it comes to hybrid, 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.119 and I think this continues to be a bump in 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.520 the road. It's not the end. It's a transitional state 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:39.240 in terms of where our view of the industry. 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.680 Thank you guys for lighting this up. This has been great, 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:43.840 Gene Monster. I didn't know you guys are in speaking terms. 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:49.959 It's great. Yeah. I think he is greatly appreciate. 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.960 Gene Monster. From Minneapolis. Well, Dan Ives, thanks for coming. 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.440 I'm looking at Aviator Nation and they don't make my size. 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.959 Oh no, they can make a spec and a special 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.800 bow tie for you, I mean a Nation bow time. 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:05.560 Look that could change and next thing, you know that 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.600 those sales would just go off the ravee keen star 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:09.280 wearing av. 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:11.720 Do Nation bowt tag. What do you think I finish? 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:15.600 But Tim, you're what we call back the day. 0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:16.840