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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now Gene Monster in Minneapolis, obviously iconic with

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Speaker 3: Piper Jeff.

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Speaker 4: For years ago. Surety could join us from deep Water

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Speaker 4: Asset Management.

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Speaker 3: Dressed appropriately, Dan ives here a calar milage with aviator.

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Speaker 3: Very nice. I'm awake, Gene Monster. I'm gonna start with you.

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Speaker 3: Here's ives. He talks to Barons yesterday, Adam Clark, and

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Speaker 3: he says, Apple, Microsoft and in video will be worth

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Speaker 3: four trillion. We're not that far away, are we, gene Monster.

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Speaker 3: How do they get the four million? Is it cash flow?

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Speaker 4: Is it earnings or is it hype?

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Speaker 5: I think it's probably two thirds expanding multiple and quickly

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Speaker 5: I'll touch that in a second. I think it's probably

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Speaker 5: one third expanding earnings when you look at like's just

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Speaker 5: focusing on Apple. The expectations for this year, surprisingly are

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Speaker 5: the iPhone growth is three percent. It's come down for

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Speaker 5: five percent. This is for fiscal twenty five, so that

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Speaker 5: number has been declining. It's eight percent for fiscal twenty six.

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Speaker 5: So the I think that there's upside of those numbers.

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Speaker 5: Dan and I can talk about how we get there,

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Speaker 5: but I think that's one piece of it. But the

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Speaker 5: second piece is what I continua believe. We've talked about

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Speaker 5: this for the past year. This this three to five

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Speaker 5: year bowl market. So we're probably in the early part

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Speaker 5: of the second year that's going to continue to go

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Speaker 5: up and then a spectacular bursting of the bubble. And

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Speaker 5: just put some quick numbers around this time is that

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Speaker 5: if you look at the Nasdaq, it's kind of trading

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Speaker 5: mid to highest twenty percent on next year earnings. At

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Speaker 5: the peak of the dot com bubble, it traded at

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Speaker 5: one hundred times. We're not going to get back to

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Speaker 5: thee hundred by any measure, but I think you could

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Speaker 5: see a four multiple of fifty as just the hype

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Speaker 5: around AI is just going to become intoxicating.

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Speaker 3: Jennives I got on the Bloomberg Apple free cash flow

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Speaker 3: pre pandemic sixty billion and they go out now to

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Speaker 3: one hundred and ten billion. My thesis here is everybody's

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Speaker 3: looking at the hype and the Dan Ives romance and

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Speaker 3: Gene monster flying around, Jim Cook meeting with King Charles

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Speaker 3: forget about it.

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Speaker 4: Is it just financial oomph that is making mag seven go.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and look, I mean me and Jim talked about

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Speaker 6: this before. The biggest thing is, even when you'll get Apple,

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Speaker 6: you're not factoring in into numbers the AIS services piece

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Speaker 6: as is essentially a new app store gets built on

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Speaker 6: Apple intelligence. What that means from a services perspective, we

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Speaker 6: think that could ultimately add ten to fifteen percent more

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Speaker 6: to services and Tom that's why I think a year

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Speaker 6: from now you're looking at four and a half trillion.

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Speaker 6: What I believe over the coming years we're going to

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Speaker 6: do five trillion dollar mark caps as we think about Godfather, Bi, Genen, Nvidia, Apple,

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Speaker 6: and ultimately Microsoft.

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Speaker 7: So Gene, I'd love to get your thoughts just kind

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Speaker 7: of because I know you've covered Apple for a long time.

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Speaker 7: You've seen the product cycle for this company over decades. Here,

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Speaker 7: how do you frame out for your clients the AI

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Speaker 7: play for Apple.

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Speaker 8: It's twofold.

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Speaker 5: I think the first is just this kind of the

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Speaker 5: tailwind with Dan's talking about, I think that injecting AI

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Speaker 5: into twenty percent of.

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Speaker 8: The world's population.

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Speaker 5: A couple of days ago was a big deal about

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Speaker 5: what they've what they added to the eighteen point two upgrade.

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Speaker 8: So I think that that.

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Speaker 5: First part, Paul, is just this hardware growth and as

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Speaker 5: I mentioned, the streets at three percent, what does it

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Speaker 5: mean for the business injecting AI into this This is

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Speaker 5: the first time software service.

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Speaker 8: You know, this AI features is really the selling point.

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Speaker 5: I think it can be eight percent growth and we

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Speaker 5: can have meaningful upside to iPhone over the next year.

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Speaker 5: And then the second phase, Dan touchdown it around.

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Speaker 8: Kind of what.

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Speaker 5: Happens with the app store is that you can see

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Speaker 5: it in the dropdown menu. If you start digging around

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Speaker 5: a eteam point two, you can see within the Apple

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Speaker 5: Intelligence menu there's a point where you can pick which

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Speaker 5: LLM you're using.

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Speaker 8: So they're gonna add other ms. They will add other.

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Speaker 5: Ones that are pay for so you upgrade, then they'll

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Speaker 5: make more on their app store. So I think that's

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Speaker 5: the second chapter hardware. First second is the app store.

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Speaker 4: Gene Monster.

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Speaker 3: Dan ives with us for this entire half hour, and

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Speaker 3: I've already had three emails.

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Speaker 4: Yes, folks. In our next.

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Speaker 3: Block, we'll cover Tesla Paul continue here on mag seven

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Speaker 3: X Tesla.

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Speaker 7: Hey Dan, we've actually heard over the last I guess

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Speaker 7: A couple of Quarters investors asked the question of Okay,

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Speaker 7: I get the AI spend. I see the numbers. I

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Speaker 7: got a sense of it's big and it's incremental. How

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Speaker 7: about the returnal in that investment? That's now a question

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Speaker 7: that people are hearing.

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Speaker 4: How do you talk to your.

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Speaker 7: Clients about what are we getting all this is spending

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Speaker 7: on AI?

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Speaker 6: Look, I think, hey, if you look at Salesforce dot

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Speaker 6: com and you what was happening in software? They were

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Speaker 6: waiting in line to get into an AI party while

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Speaker 6: Jensen's on the dance floor, Elison of course cook and

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Speaker 6: now behind those velvet ropes they're like Benioff, come on

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Speaker 6: in now. So now software is part of the AI

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Speaker 6: part because of the use cases, and that's why it

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Speaker 6: continues to be ten pm in the AI party that

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Speaker 6: goes to four am.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I got to switch to Microsoft because you know

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Speaker 4: we have this apple.

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Speaker 3: The world's gonna end. Shyness terrible. I's just saying shut

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Speaker 3: up and buy it. Muster's saying shut up and buy it.

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Speaker 3: Moonshot Q three Q four, and it's like Sachia nan

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Speaker 3: Della's falling off the face of the earth. Dana, I's

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Speaker 3: an update on Microsoft into the quarterly report.

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Speaker 6: Get the popcorn out, because this is just the start

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Speaker 6: of more and more enterprises side.

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Speaker 4: What are they doing right?

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Speaker 6: I thought she had GPT was troubled because in the

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Speaker 6: backyard of Microsoft are more and more enterprises. They're moving

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Speaker 6: on copil, moving to AI from the cloud perspective. This

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Speaker 6: is really what I've used the more and more the

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Speaker 6: catalyst going into next year, the hyperscalees not just Microsoft.

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Speaker 6: Gen's talked about again, Google, Amazon, this is now the

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Speaker 6: second third derivative of the AI revolution.

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Speaker 3: Gene monster on Google sort of off my radar here,

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Speaker 3: I mean Search, the government's going to.

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Speaker 4: Go after them.

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Speaker 3: Do you have a confidence in an entire and total

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Speaker 3: Google versus the split up that we hear from both

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Speaker 3: Republicans and Democrats.

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Speaker 5: I just got to say one thing about Dan for

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Speaker 5: a second before I answer that Tom. No one illustrates

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Speaker 5: as a better language of kind of illustrating what goes

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Speaker 5: on than Dan. So I just appreciate that at the party,

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Speaker 5: because that's exactly what's going on. Google has a seat

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Speaker 5: at that party. They're also behind that red velvet road.

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Speaker 5: You mention that party two wearing his purples.

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Speaker 4: But Paul, you got to take the next question.

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Speaker 5: So Google, in of Google, basically the pressure point on

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Speaker 5: this is, I don't think it's around regulation.

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Speaker 8: I don't think anything's gonna happen there. I think it's

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Speaker 8: really what happens with search.

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Speaker 5: And coming back to what happened in the September quarter,

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Speaker 5: I think it was the most important number, that search

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Speaker 5: number that Google has had in the last decade. Specifically

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Speaker 5: is that they saw on acceleration in the US after

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Speaker 5: one full quarter of these AI overviews. And so what

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Speaker 5: that meant is by them injecting a at the top

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Speaker 5: of the search results, that they were still getting more

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Speaker 5: search revenue. And that's kind of the keeps what has

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Speaker 5: been keeping investors up at night. The other beautiful part

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Speaker 5: about the Google story is, you know they have these

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Speaker 5: other bets. I think what happened related to, you know,

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Speaker 5: their quantum computing that a two hundred and fifty billion

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Speaker 5: in market cap this week.

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Speaker 8: That was probably a little bit of a stretch.

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Speaker 5: But what they have around Weymoa we can talk about

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Speaker 5: in the next segment.

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Speaker 8: What's going on there and relevant to to Tesla.

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Speaker 5: But I just think Google is in a great position

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Speaker 5: for this AI party.

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Speaker 3: Paul YouTube is on fire, on fire and the live

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Speaker 3: chat thank you HL can't wait for Dan ives.

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Speaker 4: I know what is that about.

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Speaker 6: But also look at Paul's sports shock. I think no

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Speaker 6: one's talking about that from.

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Speaker 7: County Donegal, Ireland.

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Speaker 3: This sports shock more amazing as Sweeney's work three fridays

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Speaker 3: in a row. He's trying to be like the Japanese

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Speaker 3: to get to the four day work we get built

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Speaker 3: out of the family.

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Speaker 7: Paul continues, Hey, Gene, I'm gonna ask you to rehash

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Speaker 7: once again. I kind of do it every time you

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Speaker 7: come on because it's so important for our listeners and viewers.

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Speaker 7: Put it into context like you can do AI versus say,

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Speaker 7: I don't know the internet electricity, how big is AI

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Speaker 7: in your mind?

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Speaker 5: So the framework we use is that you know, at

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Speaker 5: the highest level, what's been the most impactful has been electricity,

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Speaker 5: and we put that at a scale of zero to

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Speaker 5: one hundred. At one hundred, I mean, it's just hard

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Speaker 5: to argue that piece. But I would put mobile around

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Speaker 5: twenty five. I think the PC probably around thirty five

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Speaker 5: In terms of the importance, I understand these technologies stack

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Speaker 5: on top of each other, but I just think about

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Speaker 5: in terms of value creation what they can do for investors.

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Speaker 5: Put the Internet at fifty and I've put AI at

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Speaker 5: ninety ninety five. If not for so, I think we're

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Speaker 5: I just want to frame in one other piece just

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Speaker 5: around this, like you know, you hear Dan and I

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Speaker 5: talk about this enthusiasm, this party that's going on, and

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Speaker 5: parties have a tendency to end, and when they end,

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Speaker 5: there's a hangover after it, and we're going to have

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Speaker 5: that in terms of a spectacular burst in the bubble.

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Speaker 5: But I think this party is still appreciate that analogy, Dan,

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Speaker 5: I think the party is still raging. And I just

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Speaker 5: want to give an example. Broadcom this morning up seventeen

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Speaker 5: percent in the pre market. They talked about their twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty seven numbers effectively being like forty to fifty billion.

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Speaker 5: For their AI revenue was twelve billion. And so this

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Speaker 5: concept that like the hardware companies, the NVIDIAs, the broad cooms,

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Speaker 5: that they're going to somehow hit a wall here in

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Speaker 5: late twenty four or early twenty five, it's not happening.

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Speaker 4: I want to get this thing because we really want

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Speaker 4: to focus on Tesla.

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Speaker 7: Here.

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Speaker 3: This incredible call to these two players here. But let

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Speaker 3: me start with you, Dan Eyves and Gene. I want

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Speaker 3: you to pick up on the same thing. I want

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Speaker 3: you to forget about the media. I want to forget

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Speaker 3: about you. And down in Florida, Belski's dressed in white.

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Speaker 3: He looks like neyrou at a convention in the sixties.

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Speaker 3: Ives is dressed up looking like a fruit loop. And

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Speaker 3: you know, Munster, it's all those romance of media and

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Speaker 3: that you go into a top five long only buy

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Speaker 3: side equity shop and you're talking to heavyweights about their

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Speaker 3: over commitment to mag seven.

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Speaker 4: How do they respond, Dan Ives to your enthusiasts.

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Speaker 6: The first thing I say is stop trying to find

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Speaker 6: AI in your spreadsheet, because that's how many have missed

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Speaker 6: every transmissional tech name the last twenty years. And two,

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Speaker 6: when you look at what's happening here, it's about some

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Speaker 6: of the parts, Like I would argue, like the autonomous

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Speaker 6: piece for Tesla, that's not and I'd say that's still

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Speaker 6: the most under value I play in the market day

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Speaker 6: not being fully valued. You look at what the ultimate

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Speaker 6: valuation and what this is going to do from financially

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Speaker 6: right from mag seven is still massively unappreciated, and it

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Speaker 6: speaks to why I believe next year tech stocks are

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Speaker 6: up into the twenty.

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Speaker 4: Five or Gene Monster.

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Speaker 3: When you go into the CFA crew at a long

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Speaker 3: only buyside shop, pick your victim, Federated Fidelity, whatever, Genemunster,

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Speaker 3: what's your terminal value? Can you go out five year vision,

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Speaker 3: seven year vision?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I think that those are hard to you know, midling

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Speaker 5: out five years is difficult, but that's ultimately where money

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Speaker 5: is made. And to answer your question on the five

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Speaker 5: year vision on this, as I would simplify just kind

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Speaker 5: of across megacap is that there is going They're going

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Speaker 5: to grow faster for longer, as simple as that sounds.

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Speaker 5: But again I think the broadcom is representative of that.

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Speaker 5: And so when I think about what that value creation is,

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Speaker 5: I'm generally looking like a.

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Speaker 8: Year two years out.

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Speaker 5: My opinion is, for example, a year from now apples

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Speaker 5: three fifteen. I think that, uh so, I think that

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Speaker 5: there continues to move higher.

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Speaker 3: Gene Monster with us and Dan, I thanks for the

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Speaker 3: huge response, particularly out on YouTube. Greatly appreciate that. Dan,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to talk to short on Tesla, You're completely opposed.

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Speaker 3: I got one hundred and forty one thousand employees, I

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Speaker 3: got single digit revenue growth.

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Speaker 4: I got a pe of maybe one hundred and seventy.

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Speaker 3: How do you equate that to MAGA mag seven success?

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Speaker 3: How do you get those ratios which tell you south

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Speaker 3: into your call north?

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Speaker 6: Sure? So I think on Tesla it continues to really

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Speaker 6: be about autonomous and AI. And when you think about

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Speaker 6: this story going forward, it's going to be a full

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Speaker 6: self driving penetration autonomous and what I've ultimately, Oh, I

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Speaker 6: have it.

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Speaker 4: I think you wouldn't talk to Gene Monster then.

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Speaker 6: So look, I think over the next four to five

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Speaker 6: years there will be a point where Sweeney is getting

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Speaker 6: into a cybercab, no driver taken him to play golf.

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Speaker 6: That that will happen next four to five years.

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Speaker 7: All right? That that I mean, if that happens, that

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Speaker 7: is a whole new game.

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Speaker 6: But that's our And again, the whole issue is that

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Speaker 6: between the Musk Trump romance. The reason it's so important

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Speaker 6: for the stock is because now regulation in this country

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Speaker 6: is going to rapidly change in terms of autonomous, and

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Speaker 6: that we believe a trillion dollars alone for Tessa's valuation

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Speaker 6: just based on autonomous.

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Speaker 3: Jane, get us up to speed on this, and you

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Speaker 3: come at this from loop Venture's a deep water asset

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Speaker 3: where you've really dived into the entrepreneurial part of technology.

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Speaker 4: Do you buy the ives story.

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Speaker 8: One hundred percent?

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Speaker 5: I think that the reality is is that if you're

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Speaker 5: born today, there's no chance, and you're gonna born in

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Speaker 5: the US today, there's no chance, and you're gonna ever

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Speaker 5: need a driver's license.

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Speaker 8: If you're eight years old today, there's no chance.

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Speaker 6: And Jeane talk about what you talk about with your kid,

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Speaker 6: like how you always say like your kid, like with

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Speaker 6: your kid?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, since she I have a daughter, she's eight years old,

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Speaker 5: and I had a bet when just after she was

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Speaker 5: born that she would never have a driver's license, and

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Speaker 5: a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 8: I'd had.

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Speaker 5: I tried the latest version of Tesla FSD for twenty

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Speaker 5: minutes and had a couple interventions. It's not there yet,

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Speaker 5: but it is remarkable the progress that's making. I think

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Speaker 5: that the whole conversation around Tesla, very few people are

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Speaker 5: actually experiencing how far along they are, and then you

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Speaker 5: layer on top of that the fact that humans are

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Speaker 5: becoming worst drivers forty thousand plus people lose their lives

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Speaker 5: a year and auto accents in the US alone, And

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Speaker 5: then you layer on top of that what GM Cruise

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Speaker 5: announced this week basically backing off from autonomy. It just

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Speaker 5: leaves this wide open opportunity for Tesla to really be

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Speaker 5: I think one of the two key players within autonomy,

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Speaker 5: and so I think that that's not fully appreciated and

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Speaker 5: shares the Tesla So Dan, when.

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Speaker 7: We think about the Tesla story, I mean I part

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Speaker 7: of me, the cynic of me, thinks Elon Musk is

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Speaker 7: trying to get me to take my focus away from

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Speaker 7: bending metal, which is a low margin business, competitive business,

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Speaker 7: to other bets to use a tern but you think

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Speaker 7: those other bets like autonomous driving, robotaxis are real.

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Speaker 6: But I view its similar to like as Keen has

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Speaker 6: talked about for a decade. It's like with Apple, but

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Speaker 6: originally and Jeans talking about it as well, you just

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Speaker 6: looked at Apple as a hardware player smartphone. Yeah, but

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Speaker 6: what's been the key to the evaluation why it's gonna

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Speaker 6: be the first one the four trillion dollar mark Club.

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Speaker 6: It's because of services. It's because so when you think

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Speaker 6: about Tesla, I would compare Autonomous the software FS to

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Speaker 6: Apple services relative to that creuper Tino story.

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Speaker 4: That's why it's so important.

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Speaker 6: Seven million vehicles out there, you have ten million vehicles

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Speaker 6: over the next year or two.

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Speaker 4: And even when you look at.

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Speaker 6: Waimo, which is a Google Play, those are two hundred

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Speaker 6: thousand hours.

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Speaker 4: I got to get this in yesterday. We had great coverage.

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Speaker 3: Thank you to our team for linking it up with

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Speaker 3: the President elect at the New York Stock Exchange.

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Speaker 4: The billionaire of the United States was not there.

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Speaker 3: I answer the critics of r and Musta and ives.

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Speaker 3: Is he getting taxpayer support for all of his ventures?

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Speaker 3: Is he getting a free ride off the back of

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Speaker 3: the American textpayer?

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Speaker 4: I disagree.

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Speaker 6: I would argue you're talking about he made a bet

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Speaker 6: for the ages with Trump and essentially iced out if

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Speaker 6: you look at last administrations when it comes to by

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Speaker 6: an administration, especially around EV's and now you're gonna really

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Speaker 6: see him doubling down and within the Beltway, there's gonna

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Speaker 6: be major changes. And when that knock of the door happens.

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Speaker 3: It's must Geene monster, give me an EV update we

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Speaker 3: got we won't want the Chinese in Europe's I read

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Speaker 3: about BMW and Mercedes.

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Speaker 4: It's a train wreck basically and no pun intended.

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Speaker 3: Gee monster, What is the optimal EVS strategy for our

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Speaker 3: listeners across America?

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Speaker 5: If you're thinking about buying ev buy in the next

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Speaker 5: two weeks in the US, because what could happen with

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Speaker 5: those tax credits as far as like what's happening with

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Speaker 5: the broader market. Just looking at Tesla, for example, units

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Speaker 5: are basically going to be flatish for calendar twenty four.

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Speaker 5: Must talk about twenty to thirty percent growth for next year,

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Speaker 5: so a huge rebound that's surprised analysts, investors. The street

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Speaker 5: right now is looking for fourteen percent, so kind of

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Speaker 5: saying that Elon's being too optimistic on that.

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Speaker 8: But I think the big picture, Tom, is.

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Speaker 5: That we're coming through the EV winter here into starting

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Speaker 5: to be a spring, and ultimately I think that evs

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Speaker 5: just are naturally a better way to move around. It's

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Speaker 5: not a political statement, it's a it's basically a physics statement,

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Speaker 5: and I think that the free hand of the market

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Speaker 5: will prove out that it's a more efficient way to

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Speaker 5: move which will ultimately have evs. I considered an undeniable

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Speaker 5: truth that eventually all vehicles will be electric.

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Speaker 7: Gene I'm cruising around the Jersey Shore with my vestments scooter.

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Speaker 7: I'm getting like eighty miles to the gollon you and

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Speaker 7: Dan ives. But Dan, tell me about where you think

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Speaker 7: ultimate demand is for electric vehicles, because I feel like

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Speaker 7: we're in a bump in the road kind of moment here.

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Speaker 6: It's a bump in the road, but our view is

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Speaker 6: that if you get to twenty percent ed penetration, you know,

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Speaker 6: call it over the next four or five years, that

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Speaker 6: changes the game for Tesla and changes the game really

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Speaker 6: for the industry. But you look what's happening in Detroit

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Speaker 6: with the Big three. They're definitely starting to hedge that

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Speaker 6: strategy in terms of especially when it comes to hybrid,

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Speaker 6: and I think this continues to be a bump in

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Speaker 6: the road. It's not the end. It's a transitional state

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Speaker 6: in terms of where our view of the industry.

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Speaker 3: Thank you guys for lighting this up. This has been great,

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Speaker 3: Gene Monster. I didn't know you guys are in speaking terms.

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Speaker 4: It's great. Yeah. I think he is greatly appreciate.

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Speaker 3: Gene Monster. From Minneapolis. Well, Dan Ives, thanks for coming.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at Aviator Nation and they don't make my size.

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Speaker 6: Oh no, they can make a spec and a special

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Speaker 6: bow tie for you, I mean a Nation bow time.

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Speaker 6: Look that could change and next thing, you know that

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Speaker 6: those sales would just go off the ravee keen star

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Speaker 6: wearing av.

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Speaker 4: Do Nation bowt tag. What do you think I finish?

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Speaker 7: But Tim, you're what we call back the day.

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Speaker 4: You're a big fella. You're not.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if they they got that for you.

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Speaker 7: I mean, Tim's like a hockey player from Rochester.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's like they make them big up there

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Speaker 4: day nights. What are you doing for the holidays? I

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Speaker 4: mean we're in Singapore.

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Speaker 6: Look, the holidays is all about college football playoffs. It's

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00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,360
Speaker 6: about again, it's what we got punched in the mouth

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Speaker 6: versus Oregon, came back, got checked now SMU. Next week

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Speaker 6: when that going to uh, you know, to Phoenix and

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Speaker 6: then we'll see what happens there.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much, greatly, greatly, I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg Business app,

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00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: I'm watching the litmus paper of the system with Ibraham mcbari,

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00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 3: and that is the foreign exchange market. There's so much

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00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 3: signal there that pros are looking at.

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Speaker 4: So we're going to get away from Dan.

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Speaker 3: E's and Gene Monster in the next hour and right

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Speaker 3: now with us some Fordham Global Insight, Ibrah and mcbari

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Speaker 3: a knic with Villain Bauder at City Group a number.

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Speaker 4: Of years ago. Ibrahim, thank you so much for joining.

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Speaker 3: Is mister Trump's worst post inauguration nightmare, A new stronger

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Speaker 3: dollar with d x y breaking ever higher.

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Speaker 9: It's great to be with you once more, and on

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Speaker 9: my take would be more than a strong dollar, more

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Speaker 9: than anything else, reflects the strength and maybe even the

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Speaker 9: exceptionalism of the US economy and actually has the side

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Speaker 9: effect of maybe helping him over the inflation concerns. So

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Speaker 9: if you look back at the election, nobody really voted

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Speaker 9: against a strong dollar, voted against time inflation.

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Speaker 10: So as much as president like Trump likes.

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Speaker 9: To occasionally mention the dollar, I really think it's central

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Speaker 9: in his site.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so it's not central then what is within the

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Speaker 4: foreign exchange in the geopolitical space? Is it?

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Speaker 3: What we see in France this morning is a Germany

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Speaker 3: flat on their back. What's the top item for Ibrahim

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Speaker 3: Robari into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 10: Well, in fact, you put the nail on the head there.

443
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 9: I do think for the foreign exchange market at large,

444
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 9: Trump is still number one, and he's been obviously very

445
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 9: highly publicized in the preponderance of the.

446
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 10: US driving foreign exchange.

447
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 9: But even in Trump's first term and in twenty twenty two,

448
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 9: when the dollar did out the form, it did so

449
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 9: against the backdrop of weaker rest of the world grows.

450
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 10: And the way that I look.

451
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 9: At the foreign exchange market right now is I think

452
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 9: the market is right in.

453
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 10: Seeing that exceptionalism go a little bit further.

454
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 9: And sitting here in Germany today, looking at at an

455
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 9: election at the end of February, and I think it's

456
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 9: almost certainly going to get worse before it can get better,

457
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 9: and that means we will see yet further declines in.

458
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 10: The euro dollar.

459
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 9: More broadly, a further weakening in the euro against the

460
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 9: other major currency.

461
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 7: Is parody in play here for the euro. I'm asking

462
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 7: for a friend of mine who's making reservations to Paris

463
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 7: as we speak.

464
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 9: Yes, I think for investors there's always it's always very

465
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 9: uncomfortable to be chasing a pre existing and pretty long

466
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 9: running trend, and every evaluation Mottel will tell you the euro.

467
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 10: Is pretty cheap.

468
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 9: But in fact, parody would be my expectation in the

469
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 9: first half of twenty twenty five.

470
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 10: Maybe in the first quarter.

471
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 4: Oh come on, can we get Europe parody? I'm thinking.

472
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 8: At three PM.

473
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 10: I mean, I certainly wouldn't rule it out historically.

474
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 9: Historically, but you're actually strengthened into the end of the

475
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 9: in December, and that there's a basic logic to it,

476
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 9: which is into the end of the year and at

477
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 9: the very beginning of the year people like to buy

478
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 9: cheap things, right, and so the cheaper currency than there's.

479
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 10: A corporate element.

480
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 9: So I wouldn't necessarily get hung up on further weakness

481
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 9: between now and the end of the year.

482
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 10: But I think there is still more weakness for Europe.

483
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 7: Ibrim, what do you expect. We've seen, you know, the

484
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 7: ECB cut rates yesterday. Pretty much central banks across the globe,

485
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 7: maybe the exception of the Bank of Japan or cutting rates,

486
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 7: what do you expect that US Federal reserved to do

487
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 7: next week?

488
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 9: So I think the FED is actually in a very

489
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 9: unusual spot competitor a lot of the other central because

490
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 9: if you look at the Eurozone, Canada, Sweden, and in

491
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 9: particular the economies that are really weakening fast, whereas for

492
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 9: the FED, if you took a survey and maybe accepting

493
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,959
Speaker 9: your your brilliant polygona won't But most analysts at this

494
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 9: point expect the FED to cut next week.

495
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 10: But don't you think that they should be cutting? So

496
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 10: what that implies at the end is you're almost certainly

497
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 10: going to get a hawkish cut. So if that will cut,

498
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 10: and then it will say, well, you know, we have some.

499
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 9: Projections that will tell you we continue to cut at

500
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 9: a different pace than we have done so far, but

501
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 9: in practice we're probably going to adopt much.

502
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 10: More of a wait and see approach.

503
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 9: And again, I think that reflects a very different economic

504
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 9: trajectory between the US and many of the other T

505
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 9: ten economies, and even for Japan it's actually somewhere in

506
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 9: the middle.

507
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 10: Clearly the interistrate trajectory upwards, but the.

508
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 9: Economy has much more of a mix of developments where

509
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 9: the US has been pretty consistently strong and we and

510
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 9: I continue to see that happening into the beginning of

511
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 9: next year.

512
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 10: At least a Hawkish Cup next week to be on

513
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 10: the carg.

514
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Ebram, I've got to do an audible here. Damien

515
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 3: Sasaur is out in Scottsdale. I think he's in the

516
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: bad little nine today the Scottsdale National Golf Club.

517
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 4: It's really really highly ranked. It's nine holes, it's not

518
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 4: eighteen holes.

519
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: But that's plenty for It's plenty for dam So I

520
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 3: gotta go Latin America and Ibram casas hours down around.

521
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 4: I'm looking at Brazilian real out to six.

522
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: Is it because mister Lula is so ill or is

523
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 3: that something that can be opportunistic for our listeners in

524
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 3: global Wall Street?

525
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 9: So, I do think Brazil is a very interesting case

526
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 9: where in a global perspective and even maybe relative to

527
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 9: its prominent neighbor Argentina's and the opposites of investor sentiment.

528
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 9: So Argentina recently have been a dialing in Brazil suffering

529
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 9: from a combination of factors, but they definitely include that

530
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 9: there was a sense that the central Bank was a

531
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 9: little too casual about inflation risks, so I personally do

532
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 9: think that we will end up seeing the Brazilian reel

533
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 9: on a total return basis outperform in twenty twenty five.

534
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 9: But picking the bottom, of course, in these very volatile

535
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,239
Speaker 9: currencies can be very treacherous. But nevertheless I would be

536
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 9: on the positive side of Brazilian rail returns in twenty

537
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 9: twenty five, and again it's an interesting contrast to the

538
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 9: prevailing sentiment.

539
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 4: Abram, thank you so much.

540
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 3: If you and Tina Fordham are in New York together,

541
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 3: we would be honored to have both you Tina Fordham

542
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 3: into the studio with his sister Robari with Tina Fordham

543
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: at Fordham Global Insights.

544
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

545
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

546
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

547
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

548
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa. Playing Bloomberg eleven.

549
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 4: Thirty Coffee is a moonshot.

550
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 3: The summer is Brazil and Vietnam challenges, but it's always

551
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 3: more nuanced than that. She's truly experted this out of

552
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 3: reading and lc ConA Haik is absolutely iconic on what

553
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 3: are called the softs away from oil. Maybe a little

554
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 3: bit of metal is thrown in there, but it's mostly

555
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 3: about the agricultural research she did at Reading University and

556
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: bringing that over worldwide at Ed and f Man Conna,

557
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining. I mean, I got

558
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 3: Ed and f Man doing the touchy feely coffee of

559
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 3: vulcaf making coffee business better. Together, We're going to be green.

560
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 3: We're going to go out and help the farmers. Is

561
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 3: that all pushed aside by the crisis of coffee?

562
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 4: Is the pricing so.

563
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 3: Egregious that the normal business of coffee is shifted?

564
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 9: Oh?

565
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 11: I think we're in an extreme part of the cycle.

566
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 11: At the end of the day, all commodities are very

567
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 11: cyclical agricultural markets obviously because of the weather cycles. But

568
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 11: within the agricultural space, I would argue that the soft commodities,

569
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 11: which are basically just grown in the tropical countries, have

570
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 11: more heightens and more extreme cycles. And arguably, as we

571
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 11: moved towards more climate change impacted scenarios, those cycles are

572
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 11: going to be more extreme. So what we're seeing is you,

573
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 11: as you mentioned, unprecedented droughts in Brazil, severe droughts in Vietnam.

574
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 11: These two countries are the biggest producers and exporters off coffee,

575
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 11: you know one number one Arabic exporter, Number two Robust exporter,

576
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 11: you know, So they are massive. And when you have

577
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 11: two producers seeing droughts leading to drops in yields, inevitably

578
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 11: you see a supply contraction. The supply the one fundamentals

579
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 11: to go out of whack. Prices, SPI cup stock start falling,

580
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 11: and you get the situation we're in today. So yes,

581
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 11: it's extreme, but not on and we've reached record highs

582
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 11: in terms of the Arabic advice, but it's not unprecedented.

583
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 11: These are the cycles we.

584
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 6: Have to live with.

585
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 7: I don't know. I don't like living with this. I

586
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 7: got coffee on my screen here up seventy one percent

587
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 7: year to date, my double short mocha at Strawbucks Route

588
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 7: thirty five in Wall Township, New Jersey, five dollars and

589
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 7: eighty three cents. It was like three dollars and fifty

590
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,040
Speaker 7: cents a year ago. I don't know what's going on,

591
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 7: so connor is there any Is there any solution if

592
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 7: I'm a coffee farmer. You know, is there any solution

593
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 7: there technologically that can even out some of these swings

594
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 7: here in the climate.

595
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 11: No, it's not that easy. And maybe what today's high

596
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 11: prices are doing is exactly telling you that that, you know,

597
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 11: we're going to have to invent invest in more science

598
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 11: to adapt to extreme weather scenarios and so the yields

599
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 11: can still continue to be future proof. Maybe that's what

600
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 11: the price are telling us. But in the short term,

601
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 11: it's tricky because because they're tree crops, they don't not

602
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 11: row crops like corn or wheat, which grow every year.

603
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 11: You know, as soon as the price goes up, farmers

604
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 11: good and plant a lot. In the case of coffee,

605
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 11: it takes three to four years to grow from a

606
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 11: tree from from seeding level to become full fruiting and

607
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 11: so and then you know, as long as weather is good,

608
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,959
Speaker 11: it'll take some time to improve. And on the on

609
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 11: the demand side, demand is pretty sticky. It's inelastic. You know,

610
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 11: people find a small luxury that they don't need to sacrifice,

611
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 11: they don't need to forego. What we have started to

612
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 11: see is consumption from outdoors, like you know, in the

613
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 11: outdoor coffee shops are slowly transferring into at home consumption

614
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 11: because it's cheaper at home, and within the at home consumption,

615
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 11: we're seeing downgrades to low quality maybe own brands, private labels.

616
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 11: People are doing what you can.

617
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, ConA USDA was out with the summary in Vietnam

618
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 3: and they say just in the last three days that

619
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: they're seeing more planting. Farmers are motivated because of high

620
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: coffee prices to plant more trees. Is the coffee equivalent

621
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: what I use in my speeches from a knopsony, which

622
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 3: is a rubber plantation in Singapore, is in Brazil and

623
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: in Vietnam. Coffee where all the powers in the hands

624
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: of the big companies, the shippers, the regional business people,

625
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 3: and not in the power of the farmer farmers.

626
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 11: Will sell to the traders, the middlemen. The traders then

627
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 11: sell to the roasters, and some of them are small roases.

628
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 11: Some of the big roasts of the big rotors are

629
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 11: the likes of Nesle, Starbucks, JD Pete. So no would

630
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 11: in depending where you are, Yes, maybe in the USA,

631
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 11: a lot of the final coffee that we consume is

632
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 11: in the hands of some big multi multi organizations and

633
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 11: international corporations. But in different countries. You have small roasters

634
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 11: as well, so different medium sizes as well, and now

635
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 11: increasingly where you're seeing more and more independent roasters popping up.

636
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 11: There's there's a real trend for that.

637
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 7: Connor, what's the outlook for coffee here? I mean, I

638
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 7: guess it's an agricultural question, but what are the what

639
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 7: are the growers telling you about the next year, two

640
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 7: years and what their expectations are.

641
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 11: So prices are definitely high, so the incentive, as you mentioned,

642
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 11: are very strong. If weather complies, then you know they

643
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 11: will look after their crop next year. But when we

644
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 11: did our crop toos, because even f Man we do

645
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 11: our crop tos, and what we saw was that the rains,

646
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 11: the lack of rains in Brazil this in during our summer,

647
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 11: had a very bad impact on the blossom set. So

648
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 11: the blossoms look good, but those blossoms and flowers didn't

649
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 11: convert into actual buds and cherrits. So that's why we

650
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 11: didn't see a crop. And that's where that's the plomer

651
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 11: we're facing and a lot of farmerstis thought, this is

652
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 11: not great. We're going to have to complaise stump our trees.

653
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 11: So it's it's we'll see recovery for sure in twenty

654
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 11: twenty six, but not in the short term.

655
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 4: Conor.

656
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: One final question Lisa emails in It says as ConA,

657
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 3: if a peppermint mocha preppuccino blended beverage, it's Starbucks.

658
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 4: Is it gonna top? Take ten dollars? Here? Conor, we

659
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 4: hadn't for a ten dollars Starbucks?

660
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 11: But how much does it cost today?

661
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 4: Eight dollars? So says Lisa Daily with profanity wrapped around.

662
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 11: Me, because one of you asked what are the solutions

663
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 11: to this supply demand tightness? One of the solutions is

664
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 11: that consumption has to fall, and for consumption to fall,

665
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 11: these roses are going to have to pass on the

666
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 11: higher cost to the retailers. And ultimately, yes, if higher

667
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 11: costs leads to people thinking ten dollars is too much,

668
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 11: let's give it up, then that's what we need to happen.

669
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 4: Conorhick, thank you so much. Honored with ed n f Man.

670
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: I can't say enough about their volt Cafe project, research

671
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 3: project and support of farmers amid this crisis.

672
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: As well as crop tours like.

673
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: She's trying to make the flowers and the buds and

674
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: like you know, Darshaling tea and you know can or

675
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 3: Tall or.

676
00:33:52,400 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 2: Whatever these Here's the Bloomberg Surveillance Pine. Listen live each

677
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android

678
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

679
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

680
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

681
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,720
Speaker 4: The day you look at the front pages. Lisa Matteo hour,

682
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 4: what's it like to be mentioned on the Costco conference call?

683
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 4: That was pretty cool? Passion that.

684
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: Ah, yes, those Costco earnings this morning. All right, We've

685
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: got so much to get through for today, and I'm

686
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,280
Speaker 1: glad it's back up to an hour from a minute

687
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 1: and a moment. So here we go. We're starting off

688
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 1: with the battle between human and robot ride hailing drivers

689
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: at airports. We're talking about Waimo one. Okay, they're owned

690
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: by Alphabet. They already offer airport trips in Phoenix, they're

691
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: waiting approval, yeah, and other markets. I don't know if

692
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: I would take one. I'm still on the fence about it.

693
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 1: But if it's robotaxis, continue expanding experts and telling business

694
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: inside or here's the thing. Human ride hailing drivers they

695
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 1: could see their incomes take a big hit as these

696
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: robots start to come in. They're some of the most

697
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: profitable trips for them, right, they often have higher, fair

698
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: strong customer demand. That's the reason why. And the Uber

699
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 1: and Lyft drivers are telling them that their gigs all

700
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: already less.

701
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 3: If the robot thing gets through the traffic, it's got

702
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: to make that turn off the bridge onto the FDR.

703
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 4: It's got to make the turn.

704
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 3: It's like it's like Junior Helix over on the Upper

705
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: east Side.

706
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 7: I mean, I got I just I got in the

707
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 7: car this morning with some dude I've never seen before

708
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 7: in my life at four thirty in the warning. What's

709
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 7: the difference in getting in with a robot car. I

710
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 7: don't know.

711
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 5: It's a human.

712
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 7: I don't know.

713
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 10: I don't know.

714
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 7: I don't know the human. Oh God.

715
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: Okay, So Tokyo planning a four day work or city employees, Okay,

716
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 1: they want to reverse their low birth rate. That's the

717
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: whole reason.

718
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 7: So if I'm working less, I'm pro creating more.

719
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: No, that's good. That's a good way to think about it.

720
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 1: But they're saying it'll make the work life balance better

721
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: so that they'll have you know, more time to take

722
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: care of the children. So that's the whole reason behind you.

723
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: Because they're on track sixteenth consecutive year of decline for

724
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 1: their population. So again, this is city employees. This is

725
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: for April of twenty twenty five. But the way it

726
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 1: works it lets them adjust. They're working hours to free

727
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: up one day, so they need to choose what day that.

728
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 3: After thoughts trying to get me to go to a

729
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 3: six day work week, sixth times, where we are? You

730
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 3: know I tried to get it empty the dishwasher last night,

731
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 3: done in flames.

732
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 1: Pluck with that, I have the same fight.

733
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: All right.

734
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 7: This story I am very concerned about.

735
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: Did you notice when you went to Okay, well this

736
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: is British pubs. Okay, British pubs running out of Guinness. Okay,

737
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 1: huge story. This is the New York Times. Apparently the

738
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: parent company Diagio. They've limited the amount of beer that

739
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: the UK wholesalers distributors can buy each week because of

740
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 1: the surging demand, because they're fearing this shortage coming up.

741
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: The reason they're fearing a shortage is because Guinness was

742
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: once this old timer's beer, right, but it's become popular

743
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: with gen Z. Those are those drinkers up to twenty seven,

744
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: you know, from drinking age to twenty seven. It's been

745
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: this marketing push they've been pushing there. They've had celebrity endorsements.

746
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: But there's also this viral drinking challenge. Okay, it's called

747
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: split the G. I don't really understand it, but it

748
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,959
Speaker 1: means that you drink enough in one chug to leave

749
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: the foam with the first letter of the branding pine Glass.

750
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,280
Speaker 1: Apparently this is this challenge going.

751
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 8: On all right.

752
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 7: I was just at the Dublin brewery for Guinness back

753
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 7: in September. There's like three dudes. They're making the whole stuff.

754
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 7: It's it's not that big, and they it's amazing with

755
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 7: the stuff they put out there. I mean it's it's

756
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 7: just an incredible trip. If you're ever in Dublin, check

757
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 7: out the Guinness Brewery. But I guess the kids are

758
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 7: drinking it.

759
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:52,240
Speaker 4: Now. What's it called? The split split.

760
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: The G split the G, Yes, the Guinness the.

761
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 4: Gee something every day.

762
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm telling you wealth of knowledge here. Okay, the

763
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 1: last one. Oh, this is the bane of my existence. Okay,

764
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: this is the cookie chain that teen girls are helping

765
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 1: power to one billion dollars in we're talking, Oh, Paul Sweeney, Crumble,

766
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: it's those five dollars seven hundred calorie cookies that are huge.

767
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 7: Where do you get them?

768
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: You can get them in the store, but my door

769
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: dash bill has just been getting from these things. So

770
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: similar to Guinness, they're using the power of like social

771
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 1: media and bi these TikTok challenges and things. So TikTok YouTube, Instagram.

772
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:37,720
Speaker 1: It has a thirty plus person social media team. Okay,

773
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: nine point six million TikTok followers. If you compare that,

774
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 1: you say, how much is that Starbucks only has two

775
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 1: point two billion million? Okay? So they do this thing

776
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: weekly menu changes, so instead of having the same cookies

777
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: each week, they highlight a new cookie, so it keeps

778
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 1: the interest going.

779
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 4: The social people. They misspelled it.

780
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 1: But other than yeah, exactly see rw nbl.

781
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 4: Asperry buttercake cookie. It's a mouth watering buttercake cookie.

782
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 3: Oh gets this down at the bottom and says, except

783
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 3: all cookies, I love that cute Okay.

784
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,279
Speaker 1: Crumble, like have you Beenley's I've I've, I have been,

785
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 1: and I have seen it arrive at my doorstep. Plenty

786
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 1: of tially, Yes, it's the teen girls. They're all about this.

787
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 1: They're posting reviews and then Crumble repost the views those reviews,

788
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: so then they think they're like, hey, I'm famous now.

789
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,919
Speaker 1: So it's fueling this whole thing with the girls. I'm

790
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 1: telling you. But the way this company started, I mean

791
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, it was a single store in Logan, Utah,

792
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: and it just kind of blew up.

793
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 4: It's out of Logan, Utah. Wow. How social media team?

794
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: Thirty plus person social media? So you got to work

795
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: on ours.

796
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: I hope Sparta's listening. Say it one more time for Sparta.

797
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 4: How big is there social media?

798
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 3: To me?

799
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:51,760
Speaker 4: Plus?

800
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: How many is ours?

801
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 3: We got two and one of them is in here

802
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: because they went to a party last night, so.

803
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: We're crumble all right, crumble, way to check it out.

804
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 4: Like you know, we can go today and I can

805
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 4: have a story.

806
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 1: We can door dash it right here.

807
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 4: I got the.

808
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the semi sweet chocolate chunk.

809
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 8: How much is that?

810
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 7: I don't tell you the next to it?

811
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 4: I mean Lisa Mateo.

812
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 3: Thank you for Lisa Mateo, our and our newspapers.

813
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

814
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

815
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 2: seven to ten a m. Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

816
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

817
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

818
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,720
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal