WEBVTT - 2015 Predictions Results 0:00:04.800 --> 0:00:13.720 With Technology with tech Stuff from technolog Hey there, and 0:00:13.800 --> 0:00:18.200 welcome to tech Stuff. I'm Jonathan Strickland, your beloved host, 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.799 and it's that time of year again, folks. It is 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.280 time for us to look over the predictions that I 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:32.400 had made for and see how I did. However, if 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:37.800 you remember Predictions episode, it wasn't the way we normally 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.440 do it here on Tech Stuff. I had a guest host, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:45.320 Tom Merritt, who does the daily Tech News show along 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:49.479 with dozens of other shows. He joined me and instead 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.760 of making our own predictions, we actually looked over predictions 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:56.160 other people had made and then evaluated them kind of 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.040 gave our take on it. So I'm gonna go over 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.480 those predictions again and and kind of talk about what 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:06.520 actually happened during the course often. I should also add 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:10.319 I'm recording this on December third, two thousand fifteen, so 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:14.080 technically there is a month to go, or just about 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.119 a month ago, before we end out the year. So 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:21.360 some of these that I say haven't come true. Maybe 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.520 in the next several days will come true, but it's 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:29.119 not likely um, and most of them actually are are 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.880 pretty safe bets. It turns out a lot of people 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:35.959 when they make predictions want to go the safe route. Um, So, 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.920 without further ado, let's talk about some of those predictions. 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.640 The first group we talked about on that episode came 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:47.280 from Samsung, and Samsung made some predictions that were, as 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:51.760 Tom Merritt put, fairly aspirational, meaning that a lot of 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:55.720 the predictions made by Samsung tied directly into products that 0:01:55.800 --> 0:02:00.240 Samsung offers, and obviously Samsung wanted to make prediction that 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:04.280 kind of a dovetailed with their strategy. It wouldn't make 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.560 sense for Samsung to predict, you know, these devices that 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:09.200 we're making, no one's going to have a use for 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:11.920 them anymore, so we're just wasting our time. That would 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.960 be a bad idea. But the first one that they 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:19.600 predicted was that wearables would be seen as status symbols 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:24.400 in the business world, that the businessman and businesswoman of 0:02:24.440 --> 0:02:28.720 two thousand and fifteen they would not consider their ensembles 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:31.920 complete unless they were wearing a smart watch for example. 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.960 Tom and I both were pretty skeptical of this and 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.840 pointed out that it was a little self serving no 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.280 big surprise, as I already mentioned, and thought that perhaps 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:48.480 it's a little premature to suggest that smart accessories are 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.160 going to be seen as status symbols, even things like 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:54.280 the Apple Watch, which had not yet launched when we 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:58.040 recorded that episode. And as it turns out, I'd say 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:02.240 we were mostly right. I don't see smart watches as 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:08.240 being a big status symbol outside of very niche industries 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.960 like in the tech world. Maybe you could argue that 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:15.800 smart watches and devices that are in that tier are 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:19.360 seen as something of a status symbol, but beyond that industry, 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.320 not so much. And you've got to keep in mind 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.799 that while smart watches can be expensive on the order 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.200 of hundreds of dollars, when you're talking about luxury watches, 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:33.440 the stuff that executives can afford and or afford to 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.160 have and often use the status symbols, that's in the 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.600 thousands of dollars. It's well beyond what we tend to 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:44.040 see with smart devices. And you wouldn't necessarily want to 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:47.640 spend thousands of dollars on a smart device because, like 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:52.800 all technology, it runs out of value pretty quickly. It 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:57.200 hits hits obsolescence within a couple of years. So unless 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:01.240 you're making crazy amounts of cheddar, you probably don't want 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.960 to be spending it on smart devices. Every single year 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:08.720 or every two years. The next prediction was that people 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:13.320 will restructure their lives around personal power hours. This was 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:17.080 an idea about how we're using more devices to kind 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:21.719 of get information about ourselves and our productivity and our activity. 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:25.880 We can see how we have peaks and troughs of 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:28.960 activity throughout a day, and that by looking at this data, 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:31.280 we could actually plan our day so that we have 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:35.200 our most productive hours dedicated to work and are less 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:39.799 productive hours reserved for other stuff like food and naps. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.279 And I want to live in this world. It sounds 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:45.760 like a lovely place. But Tom and I both were 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.360 skeptical of this one as well. We pointed out that 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.640 we are probably not at a place yet or and 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:54.640 we wouldn't be by the close of two thousand and 0:04:54.680 --> 0:05:00.159 fifteen where your average workplace could have the flexibility to 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:05.119 allow employees to structure their work days around their own 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:11.400 personal uh peaks and troughs of activity. And I think 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.719 that's pretty much true. I'm sure there's some very forward 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:20.600 thinking places out there that have incredible flexibility for their employees, 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:22.840 but on average, I would say that's not the case, 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:24.680 and I wouldn't expect it to be. There are a 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:29.760 lot of different businesses that just are not really optimal 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:32.560 for that kind of flexibility. Despite the fact that we 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.200 would be much more productive or potentially could be much 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:39.600 more productive, it's just not the way the systems work. 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:44.880 You know. There's certain business systems that rely upon people 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:48.240 working at certain hours, and it would require a huge 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.480 overhaul to change that, and it just is not really 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:56.200 realistic to expect that to turn around so quickly. Maybe 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:58.880 in the future it would be lovely to see, but 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.560 we're still kind of waiting on that. The next one 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:06.359 Samsung made was that VR and the innovative use of 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:10.120 displays would lead to a new era of shops, freeing 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:13.919 up physical space so you would have less of a 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.799 need to maintain a physical presence like in a mall 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:21.479 or at a strip of stores. You could have a 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:25.760 kiosk and a VR headset and customers could put that 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:30.200 on and walk through a virtual UH store and see 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:35.400 all these products and purchase them that way. Tom and I, 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:40.159 again we're a little skeptical on this. UH. We did 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.719 think that we were going to see more VR headsets 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:46.120 hit the consumer market in two thousand and fifteen. As 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.240 it turns out, we're still waiting on most of those. 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:55.479 Um we keep hearing about the promise of VR, and honestly, 0:06:56.040 --> 0:07:01.920 it's making me a little nervous about the use of VR, 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:05.440 because the longer we have to wait, the more likely 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.719 people will lose interest, just as they did the first 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.680 round of v R in the nineties. Uh, if the 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:17.400 experience isn't really mind blowing and amazing, and if it 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.720 isn't at a price point that is acceptable to the 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:25.280 average consumer, and if it doesn't happen soon, we are 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:30.640 in danger of VR not going anywhere yet again. Um So, 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:34.240 because of that delay, we really haven't seen any use 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:37.960 of VR, at least not on a widespread basis as 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:42.400 a way of of as an alternative to having a 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.880 physical presence physical store of space. We've seen plenty of 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:51.200 online uses of that where stores have used an online 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:55.640 presence instead of physical storefront properties, but not the VR 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.280 experience at least not that I've seen. And uh, this 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.200 wasn't a big price for us, We thought that it 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.520 was pretty likely that it was too early to call 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:09.600 VR the savior of the small business. The next one 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:12.440 was that home automation would become more of an industry 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:14.840 and less of a geek only world. It was going 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.880 to go from geek to chic in other words, and 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:22.400 Tom and I both agreed that that was more realistic, uh, 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.560 And we also said that it was going to probably 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:28.239 be a slow progression. It wasn't going to be something 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:32.840 that really super takes off in two thousand fifteen, but 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:35.360 we would see an increase. And that's exactly what we 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:40.680 have seen. We've seen more devices and systems that incorporate 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:46.199 automation into the consumer world. But you know, as I've 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:50.120 pointed out multiple times, it's a daunting task to ask 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:54.400 a consumer to buy into an automated system for their home. 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.600 Unless you're buying a brand new house, like something that's 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.440 been built from the ground up and it's now time 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:06.800 to put appliances in that space, you probably aren't looking 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.280 at many situations where a consumer is going to replace 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:15.120 all of their appliances and various like climate control systems 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.880 and locks and all of that stuff all at once. 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:21.400 It's very rare when that's gonna happen. Most of us 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:24.240 can't really afford to do that. I know that it 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.920 would be really a scary bill to look at to say, 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.800 all right, we're gonna get rid of all the stuff 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.400 we have now, like all the appliances, and we're gonna 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:34.160 change out the locks, and we're going to put in 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:38.360 nest systems for both the smoke detectors and the thermostats, 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:41.560 and all the lighting. We're gonna do Hugh bulbs and 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:45.000 all the lighting. And I'm sure that by the time 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.600 that's all over, and I looked at that that price tag, 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:50.360 I would think this costs more than my house dead. 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:54.959 So it's not a big surprise that while there are 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:58.439 more options on the market and it's slowly getting adopted 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:02.560 in the consumer space, it's not moving super fast. Not 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:06.760 a big surprise. I think it would take a remarkable 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:11.800 movement in the automation world for this to get like 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.600 a big boost. I think it's going to be something 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:18.000 that over years, we will see more and more systems 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:23.960 integrated together, particularly if we can find uh non proprietary 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:27.640 ways for these devices to communicate with each other so 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.240 that you don't have to buy in on just one 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:34.600 manufacturers products if you want to have an integrated system 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:39.120 in your home. But that's a hope that is probably futile, 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.440 at least in the short term, because it behooves companies 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:45.640 to make proprietary systems so that way you stay with 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:49.080 one company at any rate. That was the next one, 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:52.520 and the last one that Samsung made was all kids 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:55.840 born in two thousand fifteen will end up learning coding 0:10:56.520 --> 0:11:00.680 along with stuff like science and math as a core subject. Obviously, 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:03.439 we can't verify that yet. It will take another ten 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.120 or eleven years before we can say for sure whether 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.040 this prediction comes true. But Tom and I both thought 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:13.080 that this one was certainly possible, and we definitely hope 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:17.040 that it becomes reality, because, uh, technology is a very 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:20.280 important part of our lives. At least a base understanding 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:26.520 of of what drives technology from a a processing standpoint, 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:30.880 from a computational and programmatical standpoint would be really helpful, 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.640 and it would be great to see that worked into 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.440 the curriculum of schools, not just for students, but for 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.680 teachers to it. I think it'd be incredibly helpful. I 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.760 certainly wish I had been able to take coding classes 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:46.040 when I was in high school or middle school. Even 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.000 middle school would have been ideal, but it just was 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.640 not an option. Instead, I had shop and I made 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:58.520 a race car that vaguely looked car shaped and sort 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:03.280 of rolled. I mean, it was easily the worst made 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:08.080 car in the class. It looked like I had hacked 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.480 at it with a stone saw as opposed to using 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:15.280 power tools. Coding would have been a nice change of pace. 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:20.559 The next collection of predictions came from the Street dot com. 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.720 The first one was that Facebook will aim at the 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.800 enterprise model to expand and launch something for businesses. In 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:30.240 other words, Facebook was going to try and and grow 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:35.000 as a company by targeting other companies and saying, we're 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.800 gonna create a platform for you to use as a 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.600 business on the back end, not just something for you 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:44.240 to interface with customers, but for you to use as 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.480 sort of a productivity platform. And this makes sense because 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:53.880 Facebook already has hit pretty much saturation in the consumer world. 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.480 It's hard to get more people to join Facebook when 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.800 everyone is on Facebook, or one out seven people in 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:05.000 the world are on Facebook. So, uh, Tom and I 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:09.239 both agreed that this was in fact a very likely outcome. 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.160 And as we've seen Facebook is doing this, it's kind 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:18.120 of slowly working its way into business systems. They launched 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:23.559 a messenger platform for Android example, for example, the Android 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.480 operating system, and we're starting to see more of that 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:31.280 kind of enter into the Facebook strategy. So I'm sure 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.719 this will continue in two thousand and sixteen, although this 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:38.400 is not the Predictions episode for yet, so I will 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.080 save that. Perhaps I'll even talk about that more in 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:46.360 the Predictions episode. Next was that Amazon would launch delivery 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.920 drones before the end of and the f a A 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.440 would crumble under intense pressure in order to allow this 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:58.960 to happen. Tom immediately was skeptical of this, as was I, 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:03.800 and sure enough, this prediction was a little too optimistic. 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.760 Amazon has not launched the delivery service. We did get 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:13.240 another video of an Amazon drone being able to lift 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.440 a large package, but it hasn't gone into practice, and 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.160 that's not a big surprise. It's gonna take a lot 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:24.040 of R and D to prove the system works. Uh, 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:28.200 it is reliable that it's not going to encounter problems 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.440 or cause catastrophes. And then on top of that, it's 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.440 going to take a lot of work for the regulatory 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.960 bodies to allow this to happen. So yeah, this seemed 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.440 like it was a really aggressive prediction and it did 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:44.040 not pan out as it turns out. Next was that 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.280 Uber would go public in two thousand and fifteen. Tom 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.440 said his instinct on this was that no, it would not, 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.520 But then he also pointed out that often companies end 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:55.960 up going public despite the fact that he can't see 0:14:56.040 --> 0:15:00.520 any logical reason for that. Uh. But Bert did not 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.840 go public, at least not yet, and in October two 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.400 thousand fifteen, Uber CEO actually said that the company wasn't 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:11.920 planning any I p O anytime soon. So it looks 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:15.320 like we're gonna be pretty safe in Uber will not 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:20.120 be a publicly traded company before at least, and perhaps 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.560 it will be a long time before Uber attempts to 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:26.240 go public, so that one ends up being a bust. 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:31.560 But Tom's disagreement with that prediction was right, So while 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:35.680 the prediction was wrong, we ended up being correct. Hooray. 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:39.920 The next predictions came from Bread and Beyond, and the 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.400 first was that Google Glass will head into mass production 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:48.560 in two thousand fifteen. Wow. Well. Tom said that he 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.720 gave this a sixty chance of going of being true, 0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:55.720 of Google Glass going into mass production, and I said 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.840 I was more skeptical. I did not think it was 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:02.440 and it happened, And that was largely because I own 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.960 a pair of Google Glass and while I love them, 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.920 I also recognize their shortcomings. They have very limited use, 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:14.320 and the uses that they do have can cause strife 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:19.520 among people you encounter. I had several situations where I 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:23.400 wore Google Glass and friends would say, can you take 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:25.560 those off? It makes me nervous because they thought I 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:30.960 was video taping or I'm sorry for using the acronism videotaping. 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:36.000 I'm a child of the eighties. Um, but but recording 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.240 what was going on or taking pictures even though clearly 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.880 I wasn't uh, and still made them nervous because it 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:46.080 seemed very prevalent. Never mind the fact that everyone today 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.280 has a device that is capable of recording video and 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:53.840 even broadcasting it live to the Internet as it's happening. Um, 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.240 it's I think the perception of what Google Glass is 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.680 that really hurts it at any rate. Uh. It did 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:03.680 not go into mass production. Only did not go into 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.919 mass production. But in January two thousand and fifteen, so 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.040 just a couple of weeks after Tom and I recorded 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:14.800 the episode, Google announced that Google Glass was essentially being shelved. 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.240 It wasn't being dismantled entirely. They said that they the 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.320 company intended to bring Google Glass to consumers at some 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:26.560 point in the future, but was at least temporarily being 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.560 put on hold. So not only did not go into 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:33.800 mass production, it actually was kind of pushed into the shadows. 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.640 So uh that one, uh, that one not so much. 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.440 Brend Beyond also predicted that the Firefox operating system uh 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.400 for for mobile devices wild flop and it would never 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:52.560 go mainstream, which made Tom laugh because he said that, well, 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.080 it it had maybe a long shot chance of success, 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.919 but it was already clear that the cards were really 0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:04.000 stacked again to Firefox already, because you had entrenched operating 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.560 systems in the mobile space already and it would be 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.439 really hard to dislodge them. Uh. And in fact, if 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:13.480 you look at recent market share numbers, they're kind of 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.680 all over the place because it all depends upon which 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.359 tracking system you use. But for example, I d C 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.520 says that Android makes up to about eighty two point 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.439 eight percent of the mobile market, and iOS is a 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.760 distant second at thirteen point nine percent. Then it's Windows 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.240 Phone at two point six percent, then BlackBerry at point 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:37.240 three percent, and everything else all lumped together as point 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:41.760 four So that would include Firefox OS in there. Uh 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:45.800 So yeah, it definitely didn't go mainstream, but who would 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:49.760 have expected it to. Uh. We certainly thought that there 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.800 was a chance for it to go to be popular 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:56.000 within a niche, but there was just no chance for 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.679 it to go mainstream, not not in a year's time anyway. 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:02.600 The last prediction from brend Beyond was that we might 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.479 actually see autonomous cars hit the streets before the end 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:11.280 of meaning that consumers would have an opportunity to buy them, 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.840 or perhaps that businesses would be able to use them 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:19.320 as taxi services. But Tom and I both thought this 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:24.160 was way too aggressive prediction. Uh And sure enough that's 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:29.160 the case. We have not seen these types of cars 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.199 go out for the general public to either purchase or 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.760 to ride in as part of a service. Uh. We 0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:38.760 pointed out that autonomous cars also faced some really hefty 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:44.120 legislative hurdles, and it's gonna take laws changing in order 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:47.480 for these to become a possibility in the future, like 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:51.120 it may not even be legal to purchase an autonomous 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:55.080 car depending upon where you live. Never mind the fact 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.960 that we do have Tesla vehicles on the street with 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:03.080 some autonomous capability, but they're not intended to be autonomous vehicles. 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:08.800 Their vehicles that have really sophisticated driver assist systems in them. 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:10.800 You're not supposed to use it as a means of 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.720 getting from point A to point B without having touched 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:17.440 the wheel or the the accelerator or break. In fact, 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.120 you're very much not supposed to do that. And yet 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.160 there are people who take videos of it and then 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:26.199 express amazement when things do not go as they had hoped. 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.560 And it's because the systems weren't designed to do what 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.760 the people are making them do. It's really problematic. So 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:35.840 this one also turned out to be a bust, but 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:37.560 Tom and I both agreed that that's how it was 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:40.440 going to turn out. Next, we looked at I d 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:44.080 C and some of the predictions they made. One of 0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:49.640 those was that the fablet market fablets being extremely large smartphones, 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:53.080 something between a phone and a tablet. Typically we look 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.080 at things like the Galaxy Notes and the next to 0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:59.000 six and the iPhone six and that sort of stuff 0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:02.600 as being iPhones plus really as being the devices that 0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:07.720 are in that category. That the market would grow as 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:12.800 people demand larger devices, but wearables would underperform. In two 0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:17.320 thousand fifteen, now, Tom made a very good point in 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:20.879 that episode, he said, well, it's pretty safe to say 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:23.800 that fablit market is going to grow because the fablet 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:27.400 market was very young at the end of two thousand fourteen, 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:32.000 there were only a few uh devices that fit the category, 0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:35.560 and clearly more devices were going to join that category. 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:38.440 And since you're talking about small number, having a small 0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:42.359 number grow isn't a big surprise. Like sometimes you'll see 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:46.320 figures for market growth that will say the market for 0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:50.119 this type of device grew by two. Well, if I 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:55.159 only sold one last year and then I sell you know, 0:21:55.560 --> 0:22:00.480 three the following year, it's not that great a story. 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:03.560 But from a growth perspective, it looks fantastic, you know, 0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:05.399 from that percentage. So it all depends on how you 0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:08.800 look at it. And sure enough, Uh in July two 0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:11.720 thousand fifteen, there was a report that fablets were on 0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:15.040 track to have market growth of sixty six percent in 0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.560 two thousand and fifteen. Now that sounds great, a sixty 0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.280 six percent growth in the market, but that means that 0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.920 fablets would make up about seventeen percent of the overall 0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:31.120 smartphone market. So it's not like fablets are completely displacing 0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:34.280 every other type of smartphone. They're making up less than 0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:37.679 twenty percent of all smartphones on the market, but they 0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.000 are the number is growing and I do expect that 0:22:41.080 --> 0:22:44.760 to continue because, as Tom pointed out in our Predictions episode, 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:48.000 these days we use our phones not to make calls 0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:51.800 so much, but to access stuff online and to send 0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:57.680 messages and pictures, and therefore having larger real estate for 0:22:57.680 --> 0:23:00.280 for screen size, for for being able to see the 0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:03.760 things we use these phones for, it totally makes sense. 0:23:04.920 --> 0:23:06.760 He also pointed out that the second half of that 0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:12.400 prediction that wearables would underperform was more of a substantive prediction. 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.040 It had more meat to it because it meant sticking 0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:17.480 your neck out and and actually saying wearables are not 0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:20.600 going to do as well in as they had been doing, 0:23:21.359 --> 0:23:24.520 or at least they're not going to sell as well 0:23:24.800 --> 0:23:28.520 as what people had predicted. He pointed out that there 0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:33.600 would be many more products in the wearable category out 0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:37.760 in but perhaps people wouldn't flock to them, and according 0:23:37.800 --> 0:23:40.760 to I d C, there was a two increase in 0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:44.679 wearables shipped in the first quarter of compared to that 0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:49.439 same time in but that is shipped, not sold. The 0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:53.800 Apple Watch came out this past year, but it was 0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:56.680 not a mega hit. I mean, it sold a lot 0:23:56.720 --> 0:24:02.560 of units early on, but hasn't continued. Like we don't 0:24:02.640 --> 0:24:07.359 hear crazy stories of of Apple Watch sales, but then again, 0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:09.639 Apple is also pretty quiet about that kind of stuff. 0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:13.160 But it didn't seem to be the sort of hit 0:24:13.200 --> 0:24:16.919 that the iPhone was or that the iPad was. The 0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:19.720 next prediction was that the Internet of things will continue 0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:22.720 to grow, which is sort of a no brainer, and 0:24:23.240 --> 0:24:26.399 we Tom and I both pointed out that that was 0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:29.159 going to obviously be true, and of course that is true. 0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:32.640 But we're also seeing some resistance to the Internet of things, 0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:36.280 largely because people are starting to question how that impacts 0:24:36.320 --> 0:24:40.560 their security and their their privacy. There's also been some 0:24:40.680 --> 0:24:43.320 data tracking scandals that have really brought this to light, 0:24:43.400 --> 0:24:47.000 and so now some people at least are a little 0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:51.880 more wary of having more devices around us that are 0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:56.520 tracking more data that pertains to us as people. So 0:24:57.720 --> 0:25:00.200 it is interesting to see how this is going. I'm 0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:02.159 sure we're going to continue to see the Internet of 0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:05.160 things grow over the next few years. I don't think 0:25:05.200 --> 0:25:09.359 that it's going to stop growing. It may slow a 0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:13.800 bit in its growth as people bring more concerns to light. 0:25:14.560 --> 0:25:17.560 But ultimately, from what I see, it looks like the 0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:21.880 people who are raising concerns represent a relatively small population 0:25:22.400 --> 0:25:26.160 compared to people who either don't know about the problems, 0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:30.560