1 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: With Technology with tech Stuff from technolog Hey there, and 2 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: welcome to tech Stuff. I'm Jonathan Strickland, your beloved host, 3 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 1: and it's that time of year again, folks. It is 4 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 1: time for us to look over the predictions that I 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: had made for and see how I did. However, if 6 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: you remember Predictions episode, it wasn't the way we normally 7 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: do it here on Tech Stuff. I had a guest host, 8 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: Tom Merritt, who does the daily Tech News show along 9 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: with dozens of other shows. He joined me and instead 10 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: of making our own predictions, we actually looked over predictions 11 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: other people had made and then evaluated them kind of 12 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: gave our take on it. So I'm gonna go over 13 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: those predictions again and and kind of talk about what 14 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: actually happened during the course often. I should also add 15 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: I'm recording this on December third, two thousand fifteen, so 16 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: technically there is a month to go, or just about 17 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 1: a month ago, before we end out the year. So 18 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: some of these that I say haven't come true. Maybe 19 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: in the next several days will come true, but it's 20 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,119 Speaker 1: not likely um, and most of them actually are are 21 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: pretty safe bets. It turns out a lot of people 22 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: when they make predictions want to go the safe route. Um, So, 23 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: without further ado, let's talk about some of those predictions. 24 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: The first group we talked about on that episode came 25 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: from Samsung, and Samsung made some predictions that were, as 26 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: Tom Merritt put, fairly aspirational, meaning that a lot of 27 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: the predictions made by Samsung tied directly into products that 28 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: Samsung offers, and obviously Samsung wanted to make prediction that 29 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: kind of a dovetailed with their strategy. It wouldn't make 30 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: sense for Samsung to predict, you know, these devices that 31 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: we're making, no one's going to have a use for 32 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 1: them anymore, so we're just wasting our time. That would 33 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: be a bad idea. But the first one that they 34 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: predicted was that wearables would be seen as status symbols 35 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: in the business world, that the businessman and businesswoman of 36 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen they would not consider their ensembles 37 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: complete unless they were wearing a smart watch for example. 38 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: Tom and I both were pretty skeptical of this and 39 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: pointed out that it was a little self serving no 40 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: big surprise, as I already mentioned, and thought that perhaps 41 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: it's a little premature to suggest that smart accessories are 42 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: going to be seen as status symbols, even things like 43 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: the Apple Watch, which had not yet launched when we 44 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: recorded that episode. And as it turns out, I'd say 45 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: we were mostly right. I don't see smart watches as 46 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: being a big status symbol outside of very niche industries 47 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 1: like in the tech world. Maybe you could argue that 48 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: smart watches and devices that are in that tier are 49 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: seen as something of a status symbol, but beyond that industry, 50 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: not so much. And you've got to keep in mind 51 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: that while smart watches can be expensive on the order 52 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: of hundreds of dollars, when you're talking about luxury watches, 53 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: the stuff that executives can afford and or afford to 54 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: have and often use the status symbols, that's in the 55 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: thousands of dollars. It's well beyond what we tend to 56 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: see with smart devices. And you wouldn't necessarily want to 57 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: spend thousands of dollars on a smart device because, like 58 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: all technology, it runs out of value pretty quickly. It 59 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: hits hits obsolescence within a couple of years. So unless 60 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: you're making crazy amounts of cheddar, you probably don't want 61 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: to be spending it on smart devices. Every single year 62 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: or every two years. The next prediction was that people 63 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: will restructure their lives around personal power hours. This was 64 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: an idea about how we're using more devices to kind 65 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: of get information about ourselves and our productivity and our activity. 66 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: We can see how we have peaks and troughs of 67 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: activity throughout a day, and that by looking at this data, 68 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 1: we could actually plan our day so that we have 69 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: our most productive hours dedicated to work and are less 70 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,799 Speaker 1: productive hours reserved for other stuff like food and naps. 71 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 1: And I want to live in this world. It sounds 72 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: like a lovely place. But Tom and I both were 73 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: skeptical of this one as well. We pointed out that 74 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: we are probably not at a place yet or and 75 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: we wouldn't be by the close of two thousand and 76 00:04:54,680 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 1: fifteen where your average workplace could have the flexibility to 77 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:05,119 Speaker 1: allow employees to structure their work days around their own 78 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: personal uh peaks and troughs of activity. And I think 79 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: that's pretty much true. I'm sure there's some very forward 80 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: thinking places out there that have incredible flexibility for their employees, 81 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 1: but on average, I would say that's not the case, 82 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: and I wouldn't expect it to be. There are a 83 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: lot of different businesses that just are not really optimal 84 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: for that kind of flexibility. Despite the fact that we 85 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: would be much more productive or potentially could be much 86 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: more productive, it's just not the way the systems work. 87 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: You know. There's certain business systems that rely upon people 88 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: working at certain hours, and it would require a huge 89 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: overhaul to change that, and it just is not really 90 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: realistic to expect that to turn around so quickly. Maybe 91 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: in the future it would be lovely to see, but 92 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: we're still kind of waiting on that. The next one 93 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 1: Samsung made was that VR and the innovative use of 94 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: displays would lead to a new era of shops, freeing 95 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 1: up physical space so you would have less of a 96 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,799 Speaker 1: need to maintain a physical presence like in a mall 97 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 1: or at a strip of stores. You could have a 98 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: kiosk and a VR headset and customers could put that 99 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: on and walk through a virtual UH store and see 100 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: all these products and purchase them that way. Tom and I, 101 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: again we're a little skeptical on this. UH. We did 102 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 1: think that we were going to see more VR headsets 103 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: hit the consumer market in two thousand and fifteen. As 104 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: it turns out, we're still waiting on most of those. 105 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 1: Um we keep hearing about the promise of VR, and honestly, 106 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: it's making me a little nervous about the use of VR, 107 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: because the longer we have to wait, the more likely 108 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: people will lose interest, just as they did the first 109 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: round of v R in the nineties. Uh, if the 110 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: experience isn't really mind blowing and amazing, and if it 111 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: isn't at a price point that is acceptable to the 112 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: average consumer, and if it doesn't happen soon, we are 113 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: in danger of VR not going anywhere yet again. Um So, 114 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: because of that delay, we really haven't seen any use 115 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: of VR, at least not on a widespread basis as 116 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: a way of of as an alternative to having a 117 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: physical presence physical store of space. We've seen plenty of 118 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: online uses of that where stores have used an online 119 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: presence instead of physical storefront properties, but not the VR 120 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: experience at least not that I've seen. And uh, this 121 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: wasn't a big price for us, We thought that it 122 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: was pretty likely that it was too early to call 123 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: VR the savior of the small business. The next one 124 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: was that home automation would become more of an industry 125 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: and less of a geek only world. It was going 126 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: to go from geek to chic in other words, and 127 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: Tom and I both agreed that that was more realistic, uh, 128 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: And we also said that it was going to probably 129 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:28,239 Speaker 1: be a slow progression. It wasn't going to be something 130 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 1: that really super takes off in two thousand fifteen, but 131 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: we would see an increase. And that's exactly what we 132 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: have seen. We've seen more devices and systems that incorporate 133 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 1: automation into the consumer world. But you know, as I've 134 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: pointed out multiple times, it's a daunting task to ask 135 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: a consumer to buy into an automated system for their home. 136 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: Unless you're buying a brand new house, like something that's 137 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: been built from the ground up and it's now time 138 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: to put appliances in that space, you probably aren't looking 139 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: at many situations where a consumer is going to replace 140 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: all of their appliances and various like climate control systems 141 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: and locks and all of that stuff all at once. 142 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: It's very rare when that's gonna happen. Most of us 143 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: can't really afford to do that. I know that it 144 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: would be really a scary bill to look at to say, 145 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna get rid of all the stuff 146 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: we have now, like all the appliances, and we're gonna 147 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: change out the locks, and we're going to put in 148 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: nest systems for both the smoke detectors and the thermostats, 149 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 1: and all the lighting. We're gonna do Hugh bulbs and 150 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: all the lighting. And I'm sure that by the time 151 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: that's all over, and I looked at that that price tag, 152 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: I would think this costs more than my house dead. 153 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: So it's not a big surprise that while there are 154 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 1: more options on the market and it's slowly getting adopted 155 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: in the consumer space, it's not moving super fast. Not 156 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: a big surprise. I think it would take a remarkable 157 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: movement in the automation world for this to get like 158 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: a big boost. I think it's going to be something 159 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: that over years, we will see more and more systems 160 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: integrated together, particularly if we can find uh non proprietary 161 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: ways for these devices to communicate with each other so 162 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: that you don't have to buy in on just one 163 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: manufacturers products if you want to have an integrated system 164 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: in your home. But that's a hope that is probably futile, 165 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: at least in the short term, because it behooves companies 166 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: to make proprietary systems so that way you stay with 167 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: one company at any rate. That was the next one, 168 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: and the last one that Samsung made was all kids 169 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 1: born in two thousand fifteen will end up learning coding 170 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: along with stuff like science and math as a core subject. Obviously, 171 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,439 Speaker 1: we can't verify that yet. It will take another ten 172 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: or eleven years before we can say for sure whether 173 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: this prediction comes true. But Tom and I both thought 174 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: that this one was certainly possible, and we definitely hope 175 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: that it becomes reality, because, uh, technology is a very 176 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: important part of our lives. At least a base understanding 177 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: of of what drives technology from a a processing standpoint, 178 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: from a computational and programmatical standpoint would be really helpful, 179 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: and it would be great to see that worked into 180 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: the curriculum of schools, not just for students, but for 181 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 1: teachers to it. I think it'd be incredibly helpful. I 182 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: certainly wish I had been able to take coding classes 183 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: when I was in high school or middle school. Even 184 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: middle school would have been ideal, but it just was 185 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: not an option. Instead, I had shop and I made 186 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: a race car that vaguely looked car shaped and sort 187 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: of rolled. I mean, it was easily the worst made 188 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: car in the class. It looked like I had hacked 189 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: at it with a stone saw as opposed to using 190 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: power tools. Coding would have been a nice change of pace. 191 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: The next collection of predictions came from the Street dot com. 192 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: The first one was that Facebook will aim at the 193 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: enterprise model to expand and launch something for businesses. In 194 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: other words, Facebook was going to try and and grow 195 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: as a company by targeting other companies and saying, we're 196 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: gonna create a platform for you to use as a 197 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: business on the back end, not just something for you 198 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: to interface with customers, but for you to use as 199 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: sort of a productivity platform. And this makes sense because 200 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: Facebook already has hit pretty much saturation in the consumer world. 201 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 1: It's hard to get more people to join Facebook when 202 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: everyone is on Facebook, or one out seven people in 203 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: the world are on Facebook. So, uh, Tom and I 204 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:09,239 Speaker 1: both agreed that this was in fact a very likely outcome. 205 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: And as we've seen Facebook is doing this, it's kind 206 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: of slowly working its way into business systems. They launched 207 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: a messenger platform for Android example, for example, the Android 208 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: operating system, and we're starting to see more of that 209 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: kind of enter into the Facebook strategy. So I'm sure 210 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,719 Speaker 1: this will continue in two thousand and sixteen, although this 211 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: is not the Predictions episode for yet, so I will 212 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: save that. Perhaps I'll even talk about that more in 213 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: the Predictions episode. Next was that Amazon would launch delivery 214 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: drones before the end of and the f a A 215 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: would crumble under intense pressure in order to allow this 216 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: to happen. Tom immediately was skeptical of this, as was I, 217 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: and sure enough, this prediction was a little too optimistic. 218 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: Amazon has not launched the delivery service. We did get 219 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: another video of an Amazon drone being able to lift 220 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 1: a large package, but it hasn't gone into practice, and 221 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: that's not a big surprise. It's gonna take a lot 222 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: of R and D to prove the system works. Uh, 223 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: it is reliable that it's not going to encounter problems 224 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: or cause catastrophes. And then on top of that, it's 225 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: going to take a lot of work for the regulatory 226 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: bodies to allow this to happen. So yeah, this seemed 227 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: like it was a really aggressive prediction and it did 228 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: not pan out as it turns out. Next was that 229 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: Uber would go public in two thousand and fifteen. Tom 230 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: said his instinct on this was that no, it would not, 231 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: But then he also pointed out that often companies end 232 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: up going public despite the fact that he can't see 233 00:14:56,040 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: any logical reason for that. Uh. But Bert did not 234 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: go public, at least not yet, and in October two 235 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, Uber CEO actually said that the company wasn't 236 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: planning any I p O anytime soon. So it looks 237 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: like we're gonna be pretty safe in Uber will not 238 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: be a publicly traded company before at least, and perhaps 239 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: it will be a long time before Uber attempts to 240 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: go public, so that one ends up being a bust. 241 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: But Tom's disagreement with that prediction was right, So while 242 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: the prediction was wrong, we ended up being correct. Hooray. 243 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: The next predictions came from Bread and Beyond, and the 244 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: first was that Google Glass will head into mass production 245 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: in two thousand fifteen. Wow. Well. Tom said that he 246 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: gave this a sixty chance of going of being true, 247 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: of Google Glass going into mass production, and I said 248 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: I was more skeptical. I did not think it was 249 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: and it happened, And that was largely because I own 250 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: a pair of Google Glass and while I love them, 251 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: I also recognize their shortcomings. They have very limited use, 252 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: and the uses that they do have can cause strife 253 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: among people you encounter. I had several situations where I 254 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: wore Google Glass and friends would say, can you take 255 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: those off? It makes me nervous because they thought I 256 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: was video taping or I'm sorry for using the acronism videotaping. 257 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: I'm a child of the eighties. Um, but but recording 258 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: what was going on or taking pictures even though clearly 259 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: I wasn't uh, and still made them nervous because it 260 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: seemed very prevalent. Never mind the fact that everyone today 261 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: has a device that is capable of recording video and 262 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: even broadcasting it live to the Internet as it's happening. Um, 263 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: it's I think the perception of what Google Glass is 264 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: that really hurts it at any rate. Uh. It did 265 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: not go into mass production. Only did not go into 266 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: mass production. But in January two thousand and fifteen, so 267 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks after Tom and I recorded 268 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: the episode, Google announced that Google Glass was essentially being shelved. 269 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: It wasn't being dismantled entirely. They said that they the 270 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: company intended to bring Google Glass to consumers at some 271 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: point in the future, but was at least temporarily being 272 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: put on hold. So not only did not go into 273 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: mass production, it actually was kind of pushed into the shadows. 274 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: So uh that one, uh, that one not so much. 275 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: Brend Beyond also predicted that the Firefox operating system uh 276 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: for for mobile devices wild flop and it would never 277 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: go mainstream, which made Tom laugh because he said that, well, 278 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: it it had maybe a long shot chance of success, 279 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 1: but it was already clear that the cards were really 280 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 1: stacked again to Firefox already, because you had entrenched operating 281 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: systems in the mobile space already and it would be 282 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: really hard to dislodge them. Uh. And in fact, if 283 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: you look at recent market share numbers, they're kind of 284 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 1: all over the place because it all depends upon which 285 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: tracking system you use. But for example, I d C 286 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: says that Android makes up to about eighty two point 287 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 1: eight percent of the mobile market, and iOS is a 288 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: distant second at thirteen point nine percent. Then it's Windows 289 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: Phone at two point six percent, then BlackBerry at point 290 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: three percent, and everything else all lumped together as point 291 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: four So that would include Firefox OS in there. Uh 292 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, it definitely didn't go mainstream, but who would 293 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: have expected it to. Uh. We certainly thought that there 294 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: was a chance for it to go to be popular 295 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: within a niche, but there was just no chance for 296 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 1: it to go mainstream, not not in a year's time anyway. 297 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: The last prediction from brend Beyond was that we might 298 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,479 Speaker 1: actually see autonomous cars hit the streets before the end 299 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: of meaning that consumers would have an opportunity to buy them, 300 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: or perhaps that businesses would be able to use them 301 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: as taxi services. But Tom and I both thought this 302 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: was way too aggressive prediction. Uh And sure enough that's 303 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: the case. We have not seen these types of cars 304 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: go out for the general public to either purchase or 305 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: to ride in as part of a service. Uh. We 306 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: pointed out that autonomous cars also faced some really hefty 307 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: legislative hurdles, and it's gonna take laws changing in order 308 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: for these to become a possibility in the future, like 309 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 1: it may not even be legal to purchase an autonomous 310 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 1: car depending upon where you live. Never mind the fact 311 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: that we do have Tesla vehicles on the street with 312 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: some autonomous capability, but they're not intended to be autonomous vehicles. 313 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: Their vehicles that have really sophisticated driver assist systems in them. 314 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: You're not supposed to use it as a means of 315 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: getting from point A to point B without having touched 316 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 1: the wheel or the the accelerator or break. In fact, 317 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: you're very much not supposed to do that. And yet 318 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: there are people who take videos of it and then 319 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: express amazement when things do not go as they had hoped. 320 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: And it's because the systems weren't designed to do what 321 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: the people are making them do. It's really problematic. So 322 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: this one also turned out to be a bust, but 323 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: Tom and I both agreed that that's how it was 324 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: going to turn out. Next, we looked at I d 325 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: C and some of the predictions they made. One of 326 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 1: those was that the fablet market fablets being extremely large smartphones, 327 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: something between a phone and a tablet. Typically we look 328 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: at things like the Galaxy Notes and the next to 329 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: six and the iPhone six and that sort of stuff 330 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: as being iPhones plus really as being the devices that 331 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 1: are in that category. That the market would grow as 332 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: people demand larger devices, but wearables would underperform. In two 333 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, now, Tom made a very good point in 334 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 1: that episode, he said, well, it's pretty safe to say 335 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: that fablit market is going to grow because the fablet 336 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: market was very young at the end of two thousand fourteen, 337 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: there were only a few uh devices that fit the category, 338 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: and clearly more devices were going to join that category. 339 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 1: And since you're talking about small number, having a small 340 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 1: number grow isn't a big surprise. Like sometimes you'll see 341 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 1: figures for market growth that will say the market for 342 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: this type of device grew by two. Well, if I 343 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 1: only sold one last year and then I sell you know, 344 00:21:55,560 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: three the following year, it's not that great a story. 345 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: But from a growth perspective, it looks fantastic, you know, 346 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: from that percentage. So it all depends on how you 347 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: look at it. And sure enough, Uh in July two 348 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, there was a report that fablets were on 349 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: track to have market growth of sixty six percent in 350 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen. Now that sounds great, a sixty 351 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: six percent growth in the market, but that means that 352 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: fablets would make up about seventeen percent of the overall 353 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 1: smartphone market. So it's not like fablets are completely displacing 354 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: every other type of smartphone. They're making up less than 355 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 1: twenty percent of all smartphones on the market, but they 356 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 1: are the number is growing and I do expect that 357 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: to continue because, as Tom pointed out in our Predictions episode, 358 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: these days we use our phones not to make calls 359 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: so much, but to access stuff online and to send 360 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 1: messages and pictures, and therefore having larger real estate for 361 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: for screen size, for for being able to see the 362 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: things we use these phones for, it totally makes sense. 363 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 1: He also pointed out that the second half of that 364 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: prediction that wearables would underperform was more of a substantive prediction. 365 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: It had more meat to it because it meant sticking 366 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 1: your neck out and and actually saying wearables are not 367 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: going to do as well in as they had been doing, 368 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: or at least they're not going to sell as well 369 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: as what people had predicted. He pointed out that there 370 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: would be many more products in the wearable category out 371 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: in but perhaps people wouldn't flock to them, and according 372 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 1: to I d C, there was a two increase in 373 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: wearables shipped in the first quarter of compared to that 374 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 1: same time in but that is shipped, not sold. The 375 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: Apple Watch came out this past year, but it was 376 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 1: not a mega hit. I mean, it sold a lot 377 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: of units early on, but hasn't continued. Like we don't 378 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: hear crazy stories of of Apple Watch sales, but then again, 379 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: Apple is also pretty quiet about that kind of stuff. 380 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: But it didn't seem to be the sort of hit 381 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,919 Speaker 1: that the iPhone was or that the iPad was. The 382 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: next prediction was that the Internet of things will continue 383 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 1: to grow, which is sort of a no brainer, and 384 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 1: we Tom and I both pointed out that that was 385 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: going to obviously be true, and of course that is true. 386 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 1: But we're also seeing some resistance to the Internet of things, 387 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: largely because people are starting to question how that impacts 388 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: their security and their their privacy. There's also been some 389 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: data tracking scandals that have really brought this to light, 390 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: and so now some people at least are a little 391 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 1: more wary of having more devices around us that are 392 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: tracking more data that pertains to us as people. So 393 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: it is interesting to see how this is going. I'm 394 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 1: sure we're going to continue to see the Internet of 395 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,160 Speaker 1: things grow over the next few years. I don't think 396 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: that it's going to stop growing. It may slow a 397 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: bit in its growth as people bring more concerns to light. 398 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 1: But ultimately, from what I see, it looks like the 399 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 1: people who are raising concerns represent a relatively small population 400 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: compared to people who either don't know about the problems, 401 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: don't care about the problems, or just are you know, 402 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,479 Speaker 1: they they care, but not enough for them to do 403 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: anything about it. We next looked at some predictions from Gardner, 404 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: and Gartner mostly was looking at trends that they expected 405 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 1: to increase, maybe in doubling in size, like the number 406 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:49,640 Speaker 1: of devices connected to the Internet would increase substantially, in 407 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 1: the three D printer market would double, uh that there 408 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: would be twice as many car models that would have 409 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,679 Speaker 1: connectivity in as there were in twenty fourteen, and that 410 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 1: more companies were going to higher chief digital officers and 411 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 1: similar executives to help with data security. Now, Tom and 412 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: I agreed that all of those trends would be on 413 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 1: the rise, maybe not as much as doubling, but all 414 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: of them would see increases over the course of As 415 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 1: it turns out, if you want to know how many 416 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: devices are connected to the Internet, there's not really any 417 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 1: good number out there. There are a lot of different 418 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 1: companies that have created estimations based upon various types of measurements, 419 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 1: but there's no easy source to go to and say 420 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: here it is, here's the number, Like you can't go 421 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: to how many devices are on the internet dot com, 422 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,439 Speaker 1: and there's just a big number there that doesn't happen. However, 423 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: estimations tend to range between four point nine billion to 424 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 1: twenty five billion devices. That's a big range now. Gartner 425 00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: says that four point nine billion represents the install old base. 426 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 1: Those are chips that have connectivity UH abilities that are 427 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 1: actually in devices that are shipped to consumers. In other words, 428 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: there are currently four point nine billion devices that are 429 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: in consumer products and are connecting to the Internet, whereas 430 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: the twenty billion number they say represents the total chips 431 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: manufactured that would allow for connectivity but are not necessarily 432 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: in actual devices are actually employed as of right now. 433 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: So in other words, we're just shy of five billion 434 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 1: devices connected to the Internet. According to Gardner's numbers, three 435 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: D printers have seen a great deal of growth, particularly 436 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: in the low cost consumer model market. Forecasts still predict 437 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: that the market will double in size every single year 438 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: until two thousand nineteen, so every year we're gonna see 439 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: twice as many three D printers sold as the year previous, 440 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 1: which is pretty exciting. However, right now we're all talking 441 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 1: about numbers that are in the hundreds of thousands of units, 442 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:08,880 Speaker 1: not millions of units. So, like I said before, doubling 443 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean a huge number. Uh, it just means 444 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 1: it's twice as big as it had been before if 445 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: if it had been too now it's four. In this case, 446 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 1: we're talking about couple hundred thousand units of three D printers. 447 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,520 Speaker 1: Pretty soon we'll be getting into the millions though. But 448 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: even so, it's still a pretty small market all things considered, 449 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,360 Speaker 1: but it is growing. The car model prediction they made 450 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: is pretty difficult to pin down because it would mean 451 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 1: going through every manufacturer in every brand and every model 452 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: and seeing which ones have connectivity, and then even defining 453 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 1: what connectivity means. When you say a connected car, are 454 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: you talking about multiple systems being connected? Are you talking 455 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: about just a entertainment system? Um? Like, what does that 456 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,480 Speaker 1: mean acted car in this in this respect, but I 457 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: would guess that we have seen a lot more cars 458 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: with some sort of connectivity feature added into it, and 459 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: there were in However, we also saw some major major 460 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: problems with connected cars in and if you listen to 461 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 1: my year in review where I wrapped up the big 462 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: stories of you heard some of that. Uh, So we'll 463 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 1: probably see this continue, but we're also going to see 464 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: even more focus put on security in the automotive world. 465 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: And as for chief digital officers, we've certainly seen a 466 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: lot more focus put towards cybersecurity, but we're still seeing 467 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: security leaks and security breaches. So I don't know that 468 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: we have reached the point where we can really say 469 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: we've got to handle on this, because this is an 470 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: ongoing problem. Well, the I r S hack was incredibly 471 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: scary that this hit the United States government, which is 472 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 1: supposed to be really focusing on cybersecurity, and there are 473 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 1: other breaches that were also pretty terrifying, nothing quite on 474 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:19,680 Speaker 1: the media level of the Sony hack from but still 475 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: we haven't reached a point where we can rest easy. 476 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: Certainly one of those things where I think we'll see 477 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 1: more progress in twenty six more companies investing in high 478 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: level positions that are meant to at least attempt to 479 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: address security issues, uh, cybersecurity issues at companies. Then we 480 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 1: had a couple of other predictions that just fell from 481 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: different sources. One was that we'd see a move to 482 00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 1: more alternatives to email, that emails importance itself would decrease 483 00:30:54,120 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 1: in two thousand fifteen. I mean, I don't know. I 484 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: couldn't find a whole lot of information about how email 485 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: use has changed in two thousand fifteen. Anecdotally, it's still 486 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: very important in my job, but that's anecdotal. That's not 487 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,240 Speaker 1: very useful information. There have been a lot of tools 488 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: that have gained serious traction in two thousand fifteen, stuff 489 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: like slack. Slack reminds me a lot of what Google 490 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 1: Wave was attempting to be. So we're we are seeing 491 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: tools that are meant to be a means of of 492 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 1: collaborative work that could decrease the need to use email. 493 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 1: But even in our office where we do have slack um, 494 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: we also have people who would prefer to just go 495 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: ahead and use email to send stuff around rather than 496 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 1: constantly check, uh, you know, a slack feed. So this 497 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 1: one was one that I think maybe is more true 498 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: than not true. We probably did see some people shift 499 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: away from email use other means of communication more frequently, 500 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,960 Speaker 1: but not to a point that was really remarkable. Uh. Also, 501 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 1: there was a prediction that tablets would make a comeback 502 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 1: in two thousand and fifteen, although another prediction said that 503 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 1: tablets would fade away and smartphones would take their place. Now, 504 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: Tom pointed out that there had been a stall in 505 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 1: tablet sales, but that might be because people had bought 506 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: a tablet and then weren't ready to replace it yet, 507 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 1: that tablets might follow a pattern more similar to desktop computers, 508 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 1: where you buy one and you stick with it for 509 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: a couple of years before you upgrade, and then you 510 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: might upgrade once you notice that the performance is starting 511 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: to suffer, or maybe the latest version has a feature 512 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 1: that is really compelling to you and you're not going 513 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 1: to get it on your existing tablet. But it would 514 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: make sense that we would see tablet sales numbers go 515 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 1: in cycles where you know it's it's not necessarily a 516 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 1: device one's going to upgrade every single year. Some people will, 517 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: but not the not necessarily the majority of your market. 518 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: So he said, it's not a big, big surprise. He 519 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 1: would imagine that there would be an uptick at some 520 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 1: point where people are ready to upgrade. Um And as 521 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,320 Speaker 1: it turns out, I d C reported in two thousand 522 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: fifteen that by the end of the year, we would 523 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: see an eight percent decline in tablet shipments. This was 524 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 1: in the middle of two thousand fifteen when this report 525 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 1: came out, So eight percent negative growth is the way 526 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 1: some people refer to it um Strategy Analytics, as it 527 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: expects a seven percent growth in the tablet market in 528 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 1: two thousand sixteen. So it's possible that we're on the 529 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 1: verge of an upward swing, that that two thousand fifteen 530 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 1: was one of the lulls, and in two thousand sixteen 531 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 1: people will be ready to upgrade and that's when we're 532 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 1: gonna see growth again. But we're probably not going to 533 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: see crazy growth the way we did when the first 534 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 1: few years when the iPad came out and everybody wanted 535 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 1: to get one of those devices. I also asked Tom 536 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 1: did he think two thousand fifteen was going to be 537 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,359 Speaker 1: the year that NFC technology would finally take off. I mean, 538 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: it had been available for a couple of years but 539 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,240 Speaker 1: had yet to really catch on, and I was wondering 540 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:19,800 Speaker 1: if Apple pay the iPhone and the and the Apple Watch, 541 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: we're going to really push this over the edge. Tom 542 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,720 Speaker 1: said he wasn't. He wasn't really certain that would happen. 543 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 1: He was a little ah. He said it probably wasn't 544 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:34,359 Speaker 1: the outcome that we should expect, And I'd say, he's right. 545 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 1: We've definitely seen more places adopt stuff like Apple Pay, 546 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 1: but it hasn't been universal. And I would argue that 547 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:48,399 Speaker 1: seeing someone pay with NFC is still the exception as 548 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 1: opposed to the rule. In most cases, it hasn't been 549 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 1: so widespread that it's become the common way, or at 550 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 1: least like even one out of five transactions. We haven't 551 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 1: seen like a twenty perc adoption rate of NFC technology, 552 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:06,240 Speaker 1: at least from what I can tell. So uh, he thinks. 553 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 1: Tom thinks that, you know, NFC is gonna be one 554 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: of those technologies that gradually increases in saturation, and at 555 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 1: some point we're gonna look at and say, oh my gosh, 556 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 1: NFC is really here. I mean, it's it's the way 557 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:24,479 Speaker 1: people use to pay for stuff, um, But it's not 558 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,320 Speaker 1: going to be one of those things that happens rapidly. 559 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 1: It's just going to be a gradual realization. I agree 560 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 1: with that. I also said, will the Firefox browsers switching 561 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 1: to yah Who's search engine make a big difference? And 562 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: Tom jokingly said Google would end up selling YouTube and 563 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,400 Speaker 1: their HQ because they would be so threatened, and then said, no, 564 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 1: that's not gonna happen. Is it would be interesting and 565 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 1: good for Yahoo, and I will make Google a little sharper. 566 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,800 Speaker 1: As it turns out, Um, that didn't work out so well, 567 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 1: because if you listen to my wrap up episode of UH, 568 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: this agreement was made at the end of two thousand 569 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:07,920 Speaker 1: and fourteen, and a year later, Yahoo market share had 570 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:12,720 Speaker 1: actually dropped, it had not increased, So you could argue 571 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: that this partnership did not help Yahoo at all. Maybe 572 00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 1: it did help Yahoo. Maybe without the partnership it would 573 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 1: have dropped even further. It's hard to say, but it 574 00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 1: certainly didn't propel Yahoo into a new dominant space in 575 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,840 Speaker 1: the search engine business. So that was pretty rough. Um. 576 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 1: Then I said, Tom, do you have any other predictions 577 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 1: that you'd like to talk about. He brought up the 578 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 1: fact that everyone tends to predict that an Apple TV 579 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 1: will be on the way, not just an interface for 580 00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 1: your television, but an actual television branded by Apple. UH. 581 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 1: And we both said that's probably not gonna happen in 582 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 1: if it happens at all, And sure enough, we did 583 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,319 Speaker 1: get Apple TV, but we're talking about a set top 584 00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,840 Speaker 1: box with a new user in face, a new operate 585 00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:06,799 Speaker 1: system TV o S that interacts with streaming content and 586 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 1: digital content so that you can watch it on your television, 587 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 1: but it's not a TV set itself. And Tom also 588 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: talked about how we'd be seeing more traditional broadcast and 589 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 1: cable channels offering online options for customers to get the 590 00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,879 Speaker 1: content without going through cable itself, and how that could 591 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,640 Speaker 1: mean we're seeing peak cable, so stuff like HBO, you know, 592 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,839 Speaker 1: in we saw Hbo Now, which was the first time 593 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: HBO was offering digital access to content without requiring a 594 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:44,440 Speaker 1: cable subscription, including HBO. So HBO Go you had to 595 00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: already be an HBO customer through your cable company in 596 00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 1: order to use HBO Go, but HBO Now meant that 597 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 1: you could actually get access to HBO programming without having 598 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 1: HBO on your cable, which was kind of cool, and 599 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 1: a lot of people have said this is sort of 600 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 1: the beginning of the end for cable television as it 601 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,200 Speaker 1: has been known up to this point, and Tom you know, said, well, 602 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,960 Speaker 1: maybe we are at peak cable, and as it turns out, 603 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 1: that looks like that might be right. We're seeing we're 604 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 1: seeing numbers of cable subscribers drop. Not just that we're 605 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,680 Speaker 1: seeing more people get rid of cable, but we're seeing 606 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:25,440 Speaker 1: few here people adopt cable. Uh. We have cord cutters, 607 00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,320 Speaker 1: the people who are saying I'm done with cable television, 608 00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 1: I don't want it anymore. And then we have cord never's. 609 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,280 Speaker 1: These are the people who have never subscribed to cable. 610 00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 1: They don't see the value in it. They might have 611 00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 1: cable as an Internet service provider, but they don't have 612 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:45,719 Speaker 1: cable television. And uh, it looks like we're not just 613 00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 1: looking at peak cable. We're not just looking at a plateau. 614 00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:53,840 Speaker 1: We're looking at a drop off. It's not so incredible 615 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,000 Speaker 1: that the cable company is in dire straits right now. 616 00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,839 Speaker 1: But unless something changes, I think it's a trend we're 617 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 1: gonna see continue where cable subscriptions are gonna gonna continue 618 00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 1: to drop. Uh. We're going to see fewer customers for 619 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 1: the major cable companies out there, cable service providers, and 620 00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 1: we're gonna see some big changes in that industry. Uh. 621 00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,720 Speaker 1: I sure hope we see some big changes in that industry, 622 00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,000 Speaker 1: because there needs to be some real shakeups in the 623 00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:30,120 Speaker 1: United States. We've talked multiple times about how cable service 624 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,640 Speaker 1: is largely a monopoly in the US, even though there 625 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 1: are multiple companies that are operating in that space. In 626 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 1: most regions, you don't have a choice in who your 627 00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,879 Speaker 1: provider is, or if you do have a choice, it's 628 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,360 Speaker 1: it's almost like a fake choice, like one is clearly 629 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 1: more dominant than the other. Um And that's a problem 630 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 1: because without competition, there's no incentive to UH to work 631 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,480 Speaker 1: with con sumers to create the best experience for consumers. 632 00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,640 Speaker 1: If you're the only game in town, you can charge 633 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,520 Speaker 1: whatever you want for your stuff and that's the only 634 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,440 Speaker 1: place people can get it. So this is where we're 635 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: starting to see that kind of crumble as the Internet 636 00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 1: takes over some of that load where you can get 637 00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 1: stuff online. Well, that wraps up what our predictions were 638 00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,560 Speaker 1: and how things have turned out. I'd say on the whole, 639 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,960 Speaker 1: Tom and I were pretty accurate with our our evaluation 640 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,280 Speaker 1: of the predictions. There were a couple of times where 641 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,399 Speaker 1: things turned out differently than what we expected, but not 642 00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,520 Speaker 1: by a whole lot. Now, our next episode will be 643 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,000 Speaker 1: the predictions for two thousand sixteen, and on that episode, 644 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: I will have another special guest, and that will be 645 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,920 Speaker 1: i As, Actar of c Net. I As is an 646 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 1: old friend of mine. He's been on the show before. 647 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:54,319 Speaker 1: We're also co hosts of a another show that we 648 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,440 Speaker 1: do ourselves with a friend of ours named Eric Sandean, 649 00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 1: and so i As and I are going to make 650 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,880 Speaker 1: our predictions for what will happen in two thousand sixteen. 651 00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,960 Speaker 1: And that should be fun because we'll be recording that 652 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,880 Speaker 1: in December and it won't air until the beginning of 653 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,319 Speaker 1: two sixteen, and by then it will be too late 654 00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,719 Speaker 1: for us to change our minds. And I'm sure I 655 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:19,520 Speaker 1: will predict something that will have already been proven wrong 656 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,760 Speaker 1: by the time the episode goes live, because that seems 657 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,239 Speaker 1: to be the tradition. If you guys have suggestions for 658 00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:30,160 Speaker 1: future episodes of tech Stuff, whether it's a topic that 659 00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,319 Speaker 1: I should cover, or a guest I should have on 660 00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,400 Speaker 1: the show, either to interview or to be a guest post, 661 00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:38,800 Speaker 1: or anything along those lines, you should send me a message. 662 00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,759 Speaker 1: Let me know. The email address is tech Stuff at 663 00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,840 Speaker 1: how stuff works dot com, or you can drop me 664 00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,120 Speaker 1: a line on Facebook, Twitter or Tumbler. The handle at 665 00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 1: all three is tech stuff hs W and I'll talk 666 00:41:52,800 --> 00:42:02,759 Speaker 1: to you again in the future for more on this 667 00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:15,319 Speaker 1: and thousands of other topics. Is it houstock works dot com,