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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: and then Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

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Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Time Cube Lines alongside Joe Matthew in Washington with a

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Speaker 3: look at our latest polling from Bloomberg in morning Console,

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Speaker 3: the final one we will see of this election, which

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Speaker 3: is now just twelve days away, of our poll in

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Speaker 3: the battleground stage, which as we've mentioned, shows that this

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Speaker 3: is a dead heat, not just statistically speaking within a

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Speaker 3: margin of error, it is literally a tie forty nine

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Speaker 3: to forty nine Trump Harris. When you look at the

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Speaker 3: state by state breakdown, Joe, you do see there are

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Speaker 3: some standouts. Harris for example, is up by a little

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Speaker 3: over three points in Michigan, by one point seven in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 3: But in some of these states, like another blue wall

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Speaker 3: state Wisconsin, Trump up by zero point three percentage.

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Speaker 4: Point three tenths race.

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Speaker 3: This is literally a coin flip.

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Speaker 4: Well yeah, and you know, I'll remind everyone that we've

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Speaker 4: been doing this poll for a year Now this is

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Speaker 4: in October to October story, So when we talk to

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Speaker 4: Elioakley in a second, keep in mind we have a

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Speaker 4: year's worth of data. Of course, Kamala Harris has only

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Speaker 4: been at the top of the ticket for a small

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Speaker 4: period of this time, but some of the consistencies that

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Speaker 4: we've seen with Donald Trump are remarkable, with a floor

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Speaker 4: of forty seven percent and a ceiling of forty nine

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Speaker 4: percent consistently for a year, no matter the legal headlines

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Speaker 4: or any of the other noise around this race. He's

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Speaker 4: also continuing to lead on the economy here, Kaylee, that's

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Speaker 4: a sticky number, five points on the most important issue

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Speaker 4: in this race.

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Speaker 5: Yep.

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Speaker 3: Again, fifty percent say they trust Trump more to handle

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Speaker 3: the economy. Though, when you look at the breakdown of

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Speaker 3: economic issues, while Trump is trusted more on things like

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Speaker 3: interest rates and the cost of everyday goods and gas prices,

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Speaker 3: battleground voters do trust Harris more on housing and healthcare costs,

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Speaker 3: and she has been able to close the gap on taxes.

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Speaker 3: So there have been areas in which she has made gains.

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Speaker 3: But to your point, it's not necessarily enough to overtake

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Speaker 3: Trump on this number.

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Speaker 4: One, Sure when it comes to overall, who do you

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Speaker 4: trust on the economy and specifically who do you trust

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Speaker 4: to manage prices. Eli Yoakley has been our partner in

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Speaker 4: this project for the last year Morning Consult Politics analyst

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Speaker 4: and joins us right now a year later with the

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Speaker 4: October numbers. Eli speak to the consistency, if you would,

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Speaker 4: the stickiness of these numbers for both candidates, specifically though

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Speaker 4: for Donald Trump, who seems to have the same exact

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Speaker 4: base now than he did one year ago.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, this race has not moved much and there's not

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Speaker 6: that many undecided vodors in this contest. I mean we've

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Speaker 6: been watching this at the national level and for eleven

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Speaker 6: days we got the exact same reading every single day

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Speaker 6: on where this election is. I mean, Kamal Harris in

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Speaker 6: a way that Joe Biden wasn't able to was able

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Speaker 6: to bring along that twenty twenty Democratic coalition to match

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Speaker 6: the level of support Donald Trump has with that same group.

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Speaker 6: I mean the next two weeks, less than two weeks,

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Speaker 6: it's going to be about trying to expand that. I mean,

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Speaker 6: this survey is among likely voters. I think Trump's campaign

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Speaker 6: has been pushed very hard to try to reach out

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Speaker 6: to some of those voters on the fringes who may

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Speaker 6: not think they're likely to vote today, and that's where

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Speaker 6: the battle is going to be over the next twelve days.

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Speaker 3: Well, and as we consider the messaging over the next

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Speaker 3: twelve days, Eli, I do wonder what the data suggests

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Speaker 3: about what the most effective messaging to win over that

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Speaker 3: very small basket of voters actually will be. When we

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Speaker 3: look at this poll, yes, by wide margins, Harris is

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Speaker 3: found to be more mentally fit by battleground voters forty

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Speaker 3: seven to thirty three percent for Trump.

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Speaker 6: She's seen is.

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Speaker 3: More honest by a margin of ten points. She's seen

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Speaker 3: as compassionate by a margin of sixteen. Donald Trump, forty

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Speaker 3: eight percent said is dangerous, compared to just thirty five

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Speaker 3: percent who said the same for Harris. So she may

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Speaker 3: the case here about his unfitness for office, as we mentioned,

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Speaker 3: calling him a fascist yesterday in her town hall on CNN.

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Speaker 3: Is that the kind of language that is ultimately going

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Speaker 3: to make the difference, because all that said about how

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Speaker 3: voters feel about Trump from a personality standpoint, if you will,

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Speaker 3: he's still tied with her across these states.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the dangerous message does meet the electorate

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Speaker 6: where it is about half a voter in these swing

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Speaker 6: states see Trump as dangerous. And you know, if you

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Speaker 6: look at the kind of voters who are supporting Kamala

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Speaker 6: Harris's bid, they are less likely than Donald Trump's backers

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Speaker 6: to say their vote is a vote for their candidate.

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Speaker 6: They're more likely to say it's a vote against Trump.

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Speaker 6: And these voters in the middle, the independent voters, the

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Speaker 6: kinds of folks who are more likely to be undecided

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Speaker 6: still in Kamala Harris's camp, who the independent voters supporting

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Speaker 6: Kamala Harris are far more likely to be negatively motivated.

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Speaker 6: And so those kinds of messages seem aimed at that

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Speaker 6: chunk of the electorate. It's policy versus personality, and in

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Speaker 6: the last few weeks, when you're running a against Donald Trump,

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Speaker 6: that personality argument carries a lot of weight.

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Speaker 4: I'm struck by this plurality of swing state voters. Likely

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Speaker 4: voters believe that Kamala Harris will win the election, even

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Speaker 4: though we have a tied number here. This is fascinating

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Speaker 4: to me. Eli the prospect of a self fulfilling prophecy.

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Speaker 4: We hear a lot about voters who like to try

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Speaker 4: to pick a winner. Does this advantage Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 6: It shows energy. I mean, this is one metric of

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Speaker 6: where the momentum is in the campaign. But this number

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Speaker 6: is pretty close to forty five percent thinks show win

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Speaker 6: forty one percent Trump will win in the swing states,

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Speaker 6: you know, she has a bit of an energy advantage

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Speaker 6: on this question over Donald Trump, but not by much.

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Speaker 6: I would just point out that this kind of goes

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Speaker 6: against some of the online hand ringing among the left.

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Speaker 6: Voters in these key states see a lot of energy

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Speaker 6: behind Kamala Harris, and they think she has an advantage

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Speaker 6: of those supporting her, but it's matched by those backing

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump. There's not a lot of people on either

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Speaker 6: side of the aisle who think the other party is

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Speaker 6: going to win.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 3: And as we consider how difficult it's going to be

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Speaker 3: to figure out who wins if the margins, is this

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Speaker 3: type preparing our audience here on Bloomberg TV and radio

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Speaker 3: for this to take a while to figure out. Eli

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Speaker 3: It also kind of raises the question as we consider

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Speaker 3: what voters expectations are of the massive breakdowns we are

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Speaker 3: seeing across demographics, specifically, how much more likely it is

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Speaker 3: for women to support Harris and men to support Trump.

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Speaker 3: Can you just walk through the kind of breakdowns across

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Speaker 3: demographics that are looking at not just by gender, but

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Speaker 3: race as well across these seven states.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, Kamala Harris is doing a very good

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Speaker 6: job among women voters. She's doing well among black voters.

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Speaker 6: There seems to be a bit of attrition at least

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Speaker 6: compared to twenty twenty among the youngest voters. And I

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Speaker 6: think that's what we're kind of seeing Kamala Harris tried

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Speaker 6: to lean into in this final couple weeks of the

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Speaker 6: campaign of campaigning with Beyonce, for example, it seems like

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Speaker 6: outreach to you young folks. Sitting Barack Obama out to

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Speaker 6: talk to young black men, a group that among all

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Speaker 6: young men is slipping a bit for the Democratic Party

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Speaker 6: and trying to get folks back where they would be

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Speaker 6: expected to be in this campaign, this last part of

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Speaker 6: this election, though, I mean, I don't want to say

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Speaker 6: the cliche of the election cycle every single year, but

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Speaker 6: it does all come down to turn out here, right,

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Speaker 6: Like who shows up to vote? That's what these last

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Speaker 6: two weeks are about in this campaign.

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Speaker 4: It's never meant more. And as we keep saying who

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Speaker 4: scores last, Kayley mentioned Kamala Harris up by three plus

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Speaker 4: in Michigan. Noteworthy here, Donald Trump's best showing in this

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Speaker 4: poll is in North Carolina up one point two percent.

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Speaker 4: I take that back in Georgia one point five. But

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Speaker 4: I want to ask you about North Carolina specific ELI,

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Speaker 4: because there's been quite a bit that's gone on there

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Speaker 4: to disrupt the flow here, not the least of which

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Speaker 4: has been the scandal surrounding the Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson,

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Speaker 4: but also the impact of Hurricane Helene that has caused

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Speaker 4: many people to worry about the very thing you just

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Speaker 4: mentioned turnout. Could we find ourselves with a very different

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Speaker 4: result in North Carolina because of those factors.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I think we're saying folks show up to

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Speaker 6: vote in pretty large numbers in North Carolina already. I

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Speaker 6: think the Mark Robinson issue probably it benefits Democrats to

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Speaker 6: some extent. There's less of a on the ground movement

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Speaker 6: for Republicans sort of lift up Donald Trump. But I

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Speaker 6: mean we're seeing the Trump campaign put a lot of

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Speaker 6: energy into that state, spending a lot of time there,

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Speaker 6: and you know, Donald Trump doesn't want to lose North Carolina.

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Speaker 6: Losing North Carolina would make some of these blue wall

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Speaker 6: states matter, which less for Kamala Harris. So she was

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Speaker 6: able to pull off a victory down in the South.

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Speaker 6: Some of these states like Wisconsin, which is tied, might

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Speaker 6: not matter as much. She can pull off a victory

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Speaker 6: down there. So I think that's why Nald Trump is

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Speaker 6: spending so much energy there.

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Speaker 3: Well, and as we consider where Trump and Harris are

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Speaker 3: spending their energy tomorrow, Eli, you already mentioned her appearing

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Speaker 3: alongside Beyonce in Houston, But the point of her being

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Speaker 3: in Texas, which is a state that will go for

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Speaker 3: Trump in all likelihood, is to talk about specifically reproductive

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Speaker 3: rights and abortion. This idea of that being something that

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Speaker 3: can resonate nationally even if she goes to Texas to

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Speaker 3: talk about it. How are we seeing that kind of

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Speaker 3: resonance across these states in the Sun Belt and in

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Speaker 3: the Rust Belt, as she makes that one of the

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Speaker 3: elements of her closing arguments of this campaign.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it matters a lot, especially for women. I mean,

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Speaker 6: we're seeing some sort of the divide among women without

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Speaker 6: children versus women with children in this survey clearly those

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Speaker 6: without children are thinking about this abortion issue in a

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Speaker 6: way that maybe others aren't. You know, Texas is also

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Speaker 6: home to a Senate race that is maybe not the

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Speaker 6: most competitive Senate race historically if you look at the

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Speaker 6: trends in Texas, but it's a close contest. I mean

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Speaker 6: Ted Cruz is one of the least popular senators in

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Speaker 6: the country and his Democratic challenger, Colin already is pulling

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Speaker 6: neck and neck with him down there. And so I

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Speaker 6: think it serves two purposes. One is to help maybe

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Speaker 6: try to boost off the Democratic Senate candidate there, and

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Speaker 6: then to elevate this message about abortion nationally. I mean,

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Speaker 6: you don't have to go somewhere for voters to hear

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Speaker 6: what you're saying. In the nature of the online campaign

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Speaker 6: that we're living in. I mean Donald Trump's going to

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Speaker 6: New York to host a big rally at Madison Square Garden,

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Speaker 6: for example. It seems counterintuitive, but on the other hand,

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Speaker 6: that can still break through even if he's not in

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Speaker 6: some of these key states.

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Speaker 3: All Right, Eli Yoakley, us politics analyst at Morning consult

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Speaker 3: our partner on this swing state pole.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. You

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Speaker 4: made it a little Friday. Thanks for joining us on

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where you

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Speaker 4: can find us right now, Star's Bloomberg Business News Live

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Speaker 4: and we'll meet you in the studio. Always keeping our

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Speaker 4: live stream active from Washington to New York as we

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Speaker 4: follow the candidates on the trail. Here Thursday, it's the

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Speaker 4: twenty fourth of October. We're getting pretty close and not

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Speaker 4: a shock to see Donald Trump and tempe Arizona or

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris in the state of Georgia. She'll be in

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Speaker 4: Clarkston later for a big old bash. You see in

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Speaker 4: the lineup on this thing, they're adding more people by

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Speaker 4: the minute.

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Speaker 2: It seems.

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Speaker 4: We told you Barack Obama was going to be there.

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Speaker 4: Also a guy named Bruce Springsteen. Samuel L. Jackson added

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Speaker 4: to the rundown here, Tyler Perry. We knew about Spike

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Speaker 4: Lee and is this the Beyonce one? James doesn't one? Okay,

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Speaker 4: so tomorrow we'll get the Beyonce. They're bringing out the

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Speaker 4: big guns, much like we are here on balance of Power.

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Speaker 4: She's been at it for over a year, the boss

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Speaker 4: of the poll, the Bloomberg Swing State Poll in conjunction

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Speaker 4: with Morning Consult. There's one person in the newsroom who's

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Speaker 4: haid steam coming out of her ears for this whole process,

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Speaker 4: and that's Wendy Benjaminson. She's with us back at the

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Speaker 4: table here, Washington Senior Editor. Congratulations on a year of polls.

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Speaker 4: We lived for a year. What did we find over

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Speaker 4: the course of this year. This is really interesting to

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Speaker 4: not only look at this snapshot, but look back at

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Speaker 4: the trajectory of this campaign, which you're going to help

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Speaker 4: us do right now. The fact of the matter is

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Speaker 4: the headline is this couldn't be closer.

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Speaker 8: Right.

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Speaker 4: This race is tied in all the states that matter.

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Speaker 5: Yes, And when we say tied, sometimes we'll say there's

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Speaker 5: a three or four point difference, but it's within the

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Speaker 5: margin of error. This is tide. This is forty nine,

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Speaker 5: forty nine.

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Speaker 4: There you go.

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Speaker 5: And in the individual states it varies from zero point

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Speaker 5: five percentage points to three point one in Michigan advantage

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Speaker 5: Harris in that case. But that's still within the margin

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Speaker 5: of error. So you know, who knows fifty.

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Speaker 4: To fifty one margin of error is about as low

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Speaker 4: as they get it is, which this pole carries. This

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Speaker 4: is a big sample, and so we can walk through

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Speaker 4: some of the states. If you're with us on YouTube,

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Speaker 4: you can see some of the charts here. You mentioned Michigan.

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Speaker 4: This is the biggest gap we have at three point

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Speaker 4: one percent advantage Harris. We don't have to go through

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Speaker 4: the whole horse race here, but in a world where

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Speaker 4: Harris picks up Michigan with a three percent advantage, that's

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Speaker 4: pretty close to shutting things down, isn't it.

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Speaker 5: It's close. But then there's Nsylvania and Wisconsin, as Hillary

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Speaker 5: Clinton learned in twenty sixteen, and at least Harris is

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Speaker 5: giving more attention to those states than Clinton did, So

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Speaker 5: we'll see what happens there. You know, three point one

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Speaker 5: is still within the margin of error, and that is

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Speaker 5: still a very very tight race. And we are seeing,

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Speaker 5: you know, she was counting on Arab Americans and Muslim

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Speaker 5: voters to side with her over Trump, largely over Israel

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Speaker 5: and over his immigration stances and things like that. But

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Speaker 5: I've been seeing more, you know, reporting that Arab Americans

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Speaker 5: and Muslims are not seeing her step away from Biden

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Speaker 5: or step away more pointedly from Benjamin Atmyahu, the Israeli

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Speaker 5: Prime Minister, enough and maybe leaning toward Trump, which would

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Speaker 5: really surprise me. And we'll find out in the exit polls.

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Speaker 5: But Michigan is still is just another ball that's up

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Speaker 5: for grabs.

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Speaker 4: And of course, whether you're talking Michigan or Pennsylvania, any

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Speaker 4: of these blue walls states, the economy is going to

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Speaker 4: be so important any of the swing states. And you

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Speaker 4: have found that Donald Trump still kind of owns this

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Speaker 4: issue after all of the stuff that both campaigns have

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Speaker 4: thrown against the wall in the last year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, now Trump makes Trump talks about the economy a lot.

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Speaker 5: Harris was for a while when she first got in

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Speaker 5: the race. She came up with the caring economy and

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Speaker 5: the opportunity economy, and she started talking about housing costs

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Speaker 5: and health care costs, and her numbers went up. She

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Speaker 5: has been on this closing argument that Trump is awful,

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Speaker 5: that Trump is a fascist, that Trump is a threat

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Speaker 5: to democracy and all these things. He is still talking

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Speaker 5: about the economy, and the race, as I've said, is

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Speaker 5: very very very tight. But in our poll, what is

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Speaker 5: so amazing is that Democrats have used this argument that

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Speaker 5: Trump is awful for nine years and it had failed

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Speaker 5: miserably in twenty sixteen. It worked a little bit in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty, I mean Biden one, but still they were

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Speaker 5: still making this argument, and they and they're back to

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Speaker 5: that argument now in the closing weeks, and our poll

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Speaker 5: showed that voters know that we asked about character traits,

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Speaker 5: and by large margins I mean ten points in some cases,

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Speaker 5: swingstate voters say he is. They believe he is dishonest,

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Speaker 5: he is not compassionate, he doesn't care about people like them,

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Speaker 5: he's too old, he's not mentally fit. She leads him

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Speaker 5: on all those categories, and yet that's the man they

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Speaker 5: want to steer the US economy. And so if I'm

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Speaker 5: looking at those numbers, and if I worked for Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 5: I would be saying, how about we talk about the economy,

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Speaker 5: because democracy is the fourth most important issue to voters.

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Speaker 5: It is the economy at thirty six percent. The next

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Speaker 5: nearest one is immigration at fifteen percent and then it

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Speaker 5: drops further to abortion rights and then democracy. So maybe

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Speaker 5: if it's that close, talk more about the economy. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: take a.

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Speaker 4: Hint, pole, Wendy. Lastly, remarkable to see something else incredibly

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Speaker 4: consistent for Donald Trump. That is his floor and his ceiling.

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Speaker 4: They talk about, you know, Fibonacci's when it comes to

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Speaker 4: the stock market. He stays right in that chin. He

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Speaker 4: does no matter what happens.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this poll has shown the most static electorate I

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Speaker 5: think I've ever seen. Nothing changes. The men can say

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Speaker 5: the most awful things twice, people can try to shoot him.

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Speaker 5: You'd think that would make his numbers rise up. That doesn't.

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Speaker 5: You know, nothing he says seems to move the ball,

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Speaker 5: and he just has the same number of people. Now,

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Speaker 5: this is what Harris is trying to do now, is

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Speaker 5: to try to get those Republicans who aren't crazy about him,

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Speaker 5: especially Republican women, to come out and vote, to not

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Speaker 5: just say well a pox on both their houses are

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Speaker 5: not going to vote. And the gender gap is tremendous.

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Speaker 5: I mean, women really don't like Donald Trump, a large

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Speaker 5: number of them. And if all of them go out

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Speaker 5: to vote, more than sort of the young bros that

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Speaker 5: Trump is trying to energize you know who don't vote

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Speaker 5: in his large numbers, then maybe she can pull it out.

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Speaker 4: But a lot more to find in the story itself

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Speaker 4: on the terminal and online. Two weeks out, Trump and

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Speaker 4: Harris locked in a dead heat. With the help of

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Speaker 4: Wendy Benjaminson, find our poll now a year in with

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Speaker 4: an enormous amount of data to sift through if you're

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Speaker 4: interested in where this race is going. Wendy, thank you

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Speaker 4: so much for all of your great work on the

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Speaker 4: poll and helping us cover this campaign. I'm Joll Matthew

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Speaker 4: and Washington and glad you're with us if you're just

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Speaker 4: joining us. On the Thursday edition of Balance of Power,

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Speaker 4: Wendy said something important after the economy, it's immigration. So

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Speaker 4: how about we just take these two issues here and

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Speaker 4: walk them into our next conversation because this is something

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Speaker 4: very important here that Melissa Morales has been following here

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Speaker 4: as founder and president of Somos Vatantes and Somos Pack

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Speaker 4: and both campaigns of course targeting the Latino vote and

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Speaker 4: through different visions and different messaging. When it comes to

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Speaker 4: the issue of the economy and the issue of border

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Speaker 4: security and immigration, well, listen, thanks for joining us. It's

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Speaker 4: great to see you. Welcome back. Are the campaigns doing

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Speaker 4: anything to expand their basis to actually draw new Latino

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Speaker 4: voters into their fold?

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Speaker 1: Yes, thanks so much for having me excited to be

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Speaker 1: here and to talk about my favorite topic, which is

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Speaker 1: Latino voters and where are they at and what are

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Speaker 1: they doing right now? As you said, I lead a

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Speaker 1: set of organizations called Somos Botantas and Somo's pac which

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Speaker 1: run some of the largest Latino civic and voter engagement

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Speaker 1: programs in the country and recognizing the essential role that

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Speaker 1: the economy holds, it is a key issue for our

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Speaker 1: Latino community. Three years o ago, I began partnering with

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Speaker 1: the Winning Jobs Narrative Project, which has been this three

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Speaker 1: year long economic research project focus on how to better

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Speaker 1: connect with people on the issue of the economy. So

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Speaker 1: when we think about our it's either campaign doing anything

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Speaker 1: to really broaden their basis. This issue of the economy

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Speaker 1: really becomes key.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: Core to the Winning Jobs Narrative Project is the belief

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Speaker 1: that working people, including hard working Latinos, are the engines

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Speaker 1: of the American economy.

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Speaker 9: They're the true heroes of our economic story.

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Speaker 1: That's how they should be centered, not just in the

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Speaker 1: economic policies that we're talking about, but in the economic

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Speaker 1: messaging as well. And three years worth of research from

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Speaker 1: the Winning Job's narrative projects shows that that's the framing

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Speaker 1: that really resonates with voters. It moves voters, and in

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Speaker 1: regards to Latino voters, it's what they want to see

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Speaker 1: in closing.

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Speaker 9: Arguments down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: You know, in the past month alone, someone has talked

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Speaker 1: to over one hundred and seventy thousand Latino voters across

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Speaker 1: the country, and the question in Latino voters' minds for

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Speaker 1: a lot of them even still is who can provide

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Speaker 1: a clearly communicated vision for the economy and how do

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Speaker 1: I specifically fit into that vision. So we've heard a

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Speaker 1: lot of that from Kamala Harris, we've heard concepts of

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Speaker 1: those plans from Donald Trump. But how those economic policies

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Speaker 1: are communicated down the stretch in this final two weeks

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Speaker 1: is going to be very important.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're talking about the largest racial or ethnic minority

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Speaker 4: in the country here, and so you have people like

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Speaker 4: me going on the air asking questions about something called

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Speaker 4: the Latino vote, and I know that you're entertaining my

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Speaker 4: questions here, and I really appreciate that, Melissa. But the

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Speaker 4: fact of the matter is you've been on the ground,

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Speaker 4: I understand, in a number of states around the country

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Speaker 4: talking firsthand with voters Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania. The Latino vote

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Speaker 4: is not a monolith. You're talking about a lot of

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Speaker 4: different people who grew up in different circumstances and have

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Speaker 4: different ideas about what the economy means to them, what

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Speaker 4: conservative means, the role that religion plays in their lives.

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Speaker 4: So take us to school on the groups that we

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Speaker 4: should be paying attention to.

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Speaker 9: Yes.

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Speaker 1: I think what's really interesting is that we hear this

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Speaker 1: a lot that Latino voters are not a monolith.

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Speaker 9: You have pockets of voters in different states.

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Speaker 1: Latino voters in Nevada look a lot different than Latino

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Speaker 1: voters in Pennsylvania. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: the through line here with Latino voters is really this

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Speaker 1: concept of the economy and what it means for them,

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Speaker 1: which is, can I afford to take care of my

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Speaker 1: family at the end of the day, and what does

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Speaker 1: our future look like economically in this country? And that

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Speaker 1: includes a lot of the things that we've heard Vice

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Speaker 1: President Harris talk about. You know, can we provide the

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Speaker 1: tools and opportunities that Latino families need to build a

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Speaker 1: good life for themselves in their family. That's the small

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Speaker 1: business knowinge she's talked about. A big thing we've heard

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Speaker 1: from voters is about home ownership. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: in polling you sort of get this static answer what

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Speaker 1: do people care about? We've heard housing costs and in

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Speaker 1: our minds that translates often to rent, which is certainly

440
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 1: true people think that rent is high.

441
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 9: But the real question underlying.

442
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: That is that Latino voters feel like they work very hard,

443
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: they want to own a home someday, and right now

444
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: that dream feels very out of reach. So can someone

445
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: speak to that which we have being Vice President Harris

446
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: do lot down the stretch. So when we think about

447
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: the economy, both the vision for the economy that Kamala

448
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: Harris has set out the vision for the economy that

449
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 1: Donald Trump.

450
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 9: Has set out.

451
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: Where Latino voters really converge is in this is either

452
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: side talking about the tools and opportunities that my family

453
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: needs to be able to build a good life. And

454
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: that's foundational no matter what group of Latinos.

455
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 9: That you're talking about.

456
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: Well, we've got our new Bloomberg New Swing State pole

457
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 4: out today, Melissa, and it zero's in not only on

458
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 4: the horse race in the swing states, but issues as well.

459
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 4: And this is still Donald Trump's to lose on the economy.

460
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 4: Based on what we've seen now for an entire year

461
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 4: of monthly polling in partnership with Morning Consult, fifty percent

462
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 4: of swing state likely voters say they trust Donald Trump

463
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 4: more to handle the economy. Forty five percent say so.

464
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 4: For Harris, if the economy is the number one issue

465
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 4: in the Latino household, isn't that advantage Trump?

466
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 1: So a couple of things that I would say on that.

467
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 1: And one is that when we look at polls of

468
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: likely voters, we are missing an entire segment of the electorate,

469
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: and especially the Latino electorate, of voters who may be

470
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: unlikely to turn out. But that's exactly what SOMOS is

471
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: working to do right now, is to turn out those

472
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 1: more unlikely voters. So you know, I think we want

473
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: to be able to look at the hole here. And

474
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 1: the second is that I will see you a poll,

475
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: and I will raise you a poll, which is that

476
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: you know, I think yes, definitely. In the past, Donald

477
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: Trump the Republicans have had this advantage on the economy. Specifically,

478
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: Ecki's Research released a poll yesterday which shows that while

479
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: the top lines show a very stable race for the

480
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 1: Latino community, in particular in a Trump versus Harris matchup,

481
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: where we have seen movement is this undercurrent of who

482
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 1: people trust more on the economy, and we have actually

483
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: seen Vice President Harris take the lead in this latest

484
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: poll on who Latino voters trust more on the economy.

485
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: And if I was Vice President Harris, that's certainly a

486
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: dynamic I would be holding on to and optimistic about.

487
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 9: Had it into election day.

488
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 4: It sounds like you might agree with the analysis we

489
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 4: just had from Wendy Benjaminson. Then, yet in our final

490
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 4: week and change, spend time talking about the economy as

491
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 4: opposed to a threat to democracy. Do you see it

492
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 4: that way?

493
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: You know, I think when we think about things like

494
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: a threat to democracy or reproductive rights, other things we

495
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: have seen Vice President Harris spend time on, I think

496
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: those things go hand in hand with the economy. You know,

497
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: we cannot have a stable economy, either domestically or globally

498
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: without a stable democracy in the United States, So those

499
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 1: two things really go hand in hand. So I think

500
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: we can focus on more than one thing at the

501
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: same time. And in the sort of global economy we

502
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: live in, in the the economy across states, you know,

503
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 1: interstate economy that we live in, a stable democracy and

504
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 1: a stable economy go hand in hand.

505
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: Well, Lissa, it's good to see you. Thanks for being

506
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 4: part of our converse and bringing your work at Solmos

507
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 4: Letantes and Solmos Packed to us here on Bloomberg. Melissa Morales,

508
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Much more ahead.

509
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

510
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

511
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

512
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

513
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 4: With twelve days to go here until the election. Coming

514
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: off of what was supposed to be the final presidential debate,

515
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 4: wouldn't that have been something last night to have Donald

516
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 4: Trump and Kamala Harris on a stage together. Donald Trump

517
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 4: did not agree to the debate or the venue, which

518
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 4: was CNN, so it became a town hall and another

519
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,959
Speaker 4: free hour of airtime. In this case for Kamala Harris,

520
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 4: they talked about a lot. But as we consider the

521
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 4: closing arguments from both candidates, we spoke earlier about Tucker

522
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 4: crosson last evening Daddy's home in Georgia, that was happening

523
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 4: while Kamala Harris was crystallizing her closing argument coming off

524
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 4: of the rhetoric that we heard yesterday about Donald Trump

525
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: as a fascist, remembering that General John Kelly did a

526
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 4: couple of interviews to that extent talking about Trump as

527
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 4: a threat to democracy, she was asked about it by

528
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 4: Anderson Cooper.

529
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 10: Let's listen, General Millie calling Donald Trump a fascist? You

530
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 10: yourself have not used that word to describe him. Let

531
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 10: me ask you tonight, do you think Donald Trump is

532
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 10: a fascist?

533
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 7: Yes?

534
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 6: I do, Yes, I do.

535
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 11: And I also believe that the people who know him

536
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 11: best on this subject should be trusted.

537
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 3: So for more on this element of Harris's closing argument

538
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 3: in a race that our new Bloomberg Morning console pulling

539
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: in the battleground states is literally a dead heat, we

540
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: turned to Jim Messina. He is chairman of the Democracy

541
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: Defenders pack all so, founder and CEO of the Messina group,

542
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 3: and of course was a campaign manager for Barack Obama.

543
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 3: He is in our New York headquarter. Jim, welcome back

544
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 3: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. We've seen Kamala Harris leaning

545
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 3: more and more on this messaging that Trump is unfit

546
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: to serve a fascist as she said she agreed could

547
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 3: be described of him that way last night, that he

548
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: is a danger to democracy. Frankly, she's sounding a lot

549
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 3: like Joe Biden. Is that a mistake No.

550
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 7: I think she crystallized her closing message last night when

551
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 7: she said Donald Trump has an enemy's list and I

552
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 7: have a to do list for the American people. And

553
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 7: that's going to be the contrast. When I ran President

554
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 7: Obama's campaign, Kayley, I used to say to him, we

555
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 7: need it to be a very clear choice, and that's

556
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 7: the choice that she is attempting to drive here in

557
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 7: the final days of this election.

558
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 4: Jim, it's good to see you at World headquarters in

559
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: New York. Thanks again for joining us. That is an

560
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 4: interesting and crystallized campaign message. The Trump campaign has an answer.

561
00:28:55,720 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris broke it, Trump will fix it. You As

562
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: a practitioner here, I know you're wearing your democratic hat

563
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 4: can say, what about both contrast these two closing arguments

564
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 4: for us, Well, look.

565
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 7: I think both of them are attempting to figure out

566
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,239
Speaker 7: the theory of the case of this election. And what

567
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 7: you realize is these swing voters, Joe, that you and

568
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 7: I and Kayley have talked about so many times before,

569
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 7: think about politics for minutes a week. They have an

570
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 7: average of two and a half jobs. They're busy and

571
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 7: have their life in front of them, and it really

572
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 7: is about them. It's not about politicians, it's not about

573
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 7: what they want. It is about what these voters want,

574
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 7: and they want a better life. And the voter, the

575
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 7: candidate who taps into that in these final days, is

576
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 7: going to win this election.

577
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 3: Well, when we consider what a better life means, perhaps

578
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 3: that also means better opportunities or better situations economically, At

579
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 3: least that's what our polling suggests. The economy is still

580
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 3: the number one issue, and across the battleground states, Donald

581
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: Trump is still trusted more on it. They've both outlined

582
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: their economic plans. Is he spending or is she spending

583
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: enough time talking about hers? In the contrast between them,

584
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: would that be a better way to spend the next

585
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: twelve days.

586
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 7: Well, I think you can walk into a gum at

587
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 7: the same time. You have to do both. And in

588
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 7: your morning console pull, I think the number that really

589
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 7: stood out to me is they're basically tied on taxes

590
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 7: and they're now tied on who's looking out for you.

591
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 7: And that's a key metric, because you're right, he has

592
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 7: this advantage on the economy that is kind of stabilizing

593
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 7: his campaign. If she can get even with him, if

594
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 7: she can start to catch up, and there's some evidence

595
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 7: in the battleground states that it's closing, then she'll be

596
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 7: really well off. But if he wins this election, it's

597
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 7: because he'll win on the economy.

598
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 4: What do you make of the use of celebrity here

599
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 4: in the next couple of days and the week or so,

600
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 4: Jim Asina, you know a lot about this. I was

601
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 4: at your convention. You had the Foo Fighters on stage,

602
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 4: you had Mary J. Blige, this is Bruce Springsteen. We're

603
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 4: adding Beyonce to the list here. Does it start to

604
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: cloud the message? I remember Rick Davis's ad the McCain

605
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 4: campaign running the celebrity ad against Barack Obama in the

606
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 4: first campaign. He obviously still one, but there is a

607
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 4: point of diminishing returns. Here is there not?

608
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 7: I don't think so, Joe. And here's why. I think

609
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 7: what we all can agree on is the American public

610
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 7: is over the selection and kind of sick of the

611
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 7: candidates and the negative ads, and.

612
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 4: You may as well have a concert well, and they're bringing.

613
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 7: Some celebrities into it shows you in a different light.

614
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 7: Having Beyonce show up is helpful. It'll turn people out.

615
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 7: You know, Trump's looking for his stuff. Eminem and introduced

616
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 7: Barack Obama the other night, two things I never thought

617
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 7: we'd say together. But the truth is that in the

618
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 7: waning days, you want to continue to make it exciting,

619
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 7: you want to show a momentum, and I think celebrity

620
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 7: really plays into that well.

621
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 3: As we consider the other people that are factors in

622
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: this race, beyond the candidates for president themselves, there's obviously

623
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 3: their surrogates, there's also other people who are running in

624
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 3: these states at the same time they are including in

625
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: Senate races. And when you look at the latest data

626
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 3: out of some of these Senate polls in the swing states,

627
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 3: Tammy Baldwin in a tie in Wisconsin, Bob Casey in

628
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: a toss up according to Cook Political Report in Pennsylvania.

629
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: When you look at that kind of data, Jim, about

630
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: how tight these other races are in these states, what

631
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: does it make you think about the presidential campaign that.

632
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 7: It's tied as well?

633
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 4: Pretty much?

634
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 7: You know, in these battleground presidential states, the Senate races

635
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 7: tend to kind of rise and fall with the presidential campaign,

636
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 7: with the exception of Nevada, which seems to have its

637
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 7: own sort of difference where the Democrat and the Senate

638
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 7: is pulling away whereas Harris is struggling. In Nevada and

639
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 7: the other states, you know, the Democrat is performing pretty

640
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 7: near Harris, and it's a reminder that people are much

641
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 7: more ticket voting than they used to be. There used

642
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 7: to be these mythical swing voters. There's just not anymore.

643
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 7: And it's why both sides want their presidential campaign to overperform.

644
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 4: Well, Jim, we've got twelve days, as we've mentioned, Thank

645
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 4: God be your advice. Yeah, well that still feels a

646
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 4: little long to me, to be honest. Kamla Harris is

647
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 4: going to be on the Ellipse on Tuesday talking about

648
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 4: threats to democracy, trying to conjure the images and she'll

649
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 4: be able to do that with the optics there, but

650
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 4: also the emotions, the feelings of January sixth. That could

651
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 4: be a lasting tone that she sets here and what

652
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 4: will be the final week of the campaign. What would

653
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 4: be your advice to her and the campaign at large

654
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 4: as they deal with the potency of January sixth.

655
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 7: I would be careful not to overplay it. I wouldn't

656
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 7: make it all doom and gloom. It needs to be

657
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 7: a contrast and a contrast to that moment January sixth,

658
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 7: with the violence and the anger, you know, allow a

659
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 7: little bit of hope, Allow a little bit of this

660
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 7: is us, this is our side. We're different. We will

661
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 7: bring stability. But I think to your point show it

662
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 7: is an incredibly important moment. She's only been in this

663
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 7: eras ninety two days and there still is this thing

664
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 7: called the Commander in Chief test. Voters want to see

665
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 7: her be presidential and I think it's a brilliant move

666
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 7: to go there, and now she needs to deliver a

667
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 7: strong performance, look at the country and say, hey, watch me,

668
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 7: I can be your leader. I can do this job.

669
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 7: And I think it's a very smart move, but it's

670
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 7: a very high stakes move. As well, and it'll come

671
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 7: just days before the election.

672
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 4: It's Jim Assina. He's chaired Democracy Defenders PAC, founder CEO

673
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 4: of the Messina Group, former Obama campaign manager. Give our

674
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 4: regards when you walk through the pantry.

675
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 2: Jim.

676
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 4: It's great to have you at World Headquarters in New

677
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 4: York as we consider this important moment now in the campaign.

678
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 4: We add another voice, Peter Vunch, live from the IMF

679
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 4: meetings here in Washington, DC and Governor of the National

680
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 4: Bank of Belgium, European Central Bank Governing Council member with

681
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: a very different point of view on things. Mister Vuunch,

682
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 4: Welcome to Blue TV and Radio, and thank you for

683
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 4: joining us from the IMF. We're only a couple of

684
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 4: days out. As we've been mentioning here, twelve days from

685
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 4: the US election taking place. Is that the main topic

686
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 4: of conversation where you are.

687
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 12: It is certainly an important topic of conversation, and we

688
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 12: of course look a lot of what's taking place in

689
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 12: the US. At the same time, we've had discussions more

690
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 12: specifically on inflation and where the European economy is going,

691
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 12: but the two might be related to going forward.

692
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 3: Well, and as we look going forward, we have a

693
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 3: central bank decision here in the US just two days

694
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 3: after the election. You, yourself and your colleagues at the

695
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 3: ECB will have one coming up as well. The market

696
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 3: thinks in December there is a rate cut baked in

697
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,919
Speaker 3: that there is a chance for a half point move.

698
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 3: Can you rule out fifty basis points? What would you

699
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 3: need to see to make a cut of that.

700
00:35:54,600 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 12: Size, Yeah, of course, it's a quot. I've been getting

701
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,760
Speaker 12: a lot recently. I don't think really that's the discussion today.

702
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 12: I know some of my colleagues are already discussing cutting

703
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 12: fifty basis points in December. We'll have two more readings

704
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 12: of inflation before we have a new projections. My take

705
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 12: on it is, of course, the European economy is weaker

706
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 12: than we thought, and we had an inflation surprise on

707
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 12: the downside in September. But I think honestly talking about

708
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 12: a fifty basis point cut in December is premature. We

709
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 12: are data dependent, so I really want to see the data.

710
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 12: We don't know as of yet whether this week number

711
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 12: on inflation is September is a blip. We had forecast

712
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 12: with basically inflation going back to around two point five.

713
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 12: At the end of the year, it might be lower,

714
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 12: and it might mean that we have to remove restriction faster.

715
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 12: But I don't see why we should today have a

716
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 12: discussion on a fifty basis point cut in December. I

717
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 12: think really it's premature.

718
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 4: Governor Bunch. I wonder the extent to its geo political

719
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 4: risk is clouding your ability to forecast. We talk about,

720
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 4: of course, the war in Ukraine here every day, also

721
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 4: an escalating conflict throughout the Middle East. Is geopolitical risk

722
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 4: a greater level of uncertainty than the US election?

723
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 12: Well, I think it's a combination of the two. Of course,

724
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 12: depending on who's going to win the election in the US,

725
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 12: who might have discussions about terris which could impact the

726
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 12: world economy and the European economy. We had at some

727
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 12: point some tensions on the oil prices and then intubated

728
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 12: it could go up again, So of course that's part

729
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 12: of the reason why it's a difficult environment to navigate.

730
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 12: But also more broadly speaking, I mean, you know, I've

731
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 12: said before what we have under control is not under control,

732
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 12: and what we don't have under control is under control,

733
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 12: by which I mean domestic inflation in Europe, is still

734
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 12: very high. And it's because important inflation is low that

735
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 12: we see inflation going on average towards two percent. But

736
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 12: it also means that you still have tensions on both directions.

737
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 12: So you have important inflation below target, you have domestic

738
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 12: inflation above target, and a few changes here and there

739
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 12: on oil prices, on tarif can make it move in

740
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 12: one or the other direction. And indeed the number we

741
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 12: got in cent Termer was more in the direction of

742
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 12: lower inflation, but we still need more information to be

743
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 12: sure that we are lending to this target.

744
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 3: So you've told us two things, Governor, that the European

745
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 3: economy is weaker than you thought, but that domestic inflation

746
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 3: also is still very high. When we look at the

747
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: picture holistically and not just how monetary policy factors in,

748
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 3: but fiscal policy as well, which in many European countries

749
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 3: is tightening, do you see forces at work in which

750
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 3: there could be a further weakening of the domestic European

751
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 3: economies and then potentially an undershoot of inflation.

752
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 12: I think the risks are rat is still relatively balanced,

753
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 12: and with the number we've had in September, and also

754
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 12: the P and I maybe if they've been moving a

755
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 12: little bit more on the downside. But I would not

756
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 12: over dramatize inflation falling to one point eight percent or

757
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 12: one point seven Honestly, we've been way above two percent

758
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 12: for a while. And to the extent that it would

759
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 12: be important inflation which is low, that's a completely different

760
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:29,280
Speaker 12: scenario than inflation domestic inflation being close to or below target,

761
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 12: which is not the case today. So again, it's part

762
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 12: of the picture. It's part of what we are going

763
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 12: to look at when deciding on further cuts. I guess

764
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 12: directionally we can start removing and maybe even accelerate removing

765
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 12: the restrictive monetary policy we had, but I would not

766
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 12: make a bet in terms of the speed at which

767
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 12: we will get there as of now.

768
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 3: All right, Governor, we appreciate you joining us today on

769
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Live from the IMF World Bank Meetings in Washington,

770
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 3: d C. That was Pierre Vunch, Governor of the National

771
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: Bank of Belgium and member of the Governing Council of

772
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 3: the Yearpe and Central Bank.

773
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 9: We appreciate your.

774
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: Time, sir, as we have an eye abroad and at home,

775
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 3: and how many of these issues Joe intersect as we

776
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 3: talk about the economic picture around the world, monetary policymakers,

777
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: fiscal fiscal policy makers, rather having to factor in a

778
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 3: US election, which could have major implications for inflation, for growth,

779
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 3: and relationships between the US and other countries around the world.

780
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

781
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

782
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

783
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

784
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

785
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 3: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where,

786
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 3: with twelve days to go in an election we've spent

787
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 3: well over a year and a half talking about once again,

788
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 3: are bringing you the latest on this race in its

789
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 3: final stretches. As we have done over the course of

790
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 3: this entire cycle. Our job here is to bring you

791
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 3: the facts as they are, the reality of what these

792
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 3: campaigns are doing, not to sanitize anything, just to present

793
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 3: the information as we see it, and to get the

794
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 3: smart analysis from professionals that provide our audience the context

795
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 3: in information they need. It's not always comfortable, certainly, Joe

796
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 3: We have had to deal with some uncomfortable subjects here

797
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 3: on balance of power during this cycle, but we present

798
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 3: reality as it is, including what went down in Georgia

799
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 3: last night when Donald Trump was joined by Tucker Carlson.

800
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 8: How did we wind up with a system where Kamala

801
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 8: Harrison couldn't change the tire on your truck, much less

802
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 8: drive it. How did she wind up at the top

803
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 8: of the pyramid. If you allow your hormone addled fifteen

804
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 8: year old daughter to like slam the door of her

805
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 8: bedroom and give you the finger, you're gonna get more

806
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 8: of it, and those kids are going to wind up

807
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 8: and rehab.

808
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 13: It's not good for you and.

809
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 8: It's not good for them. No, there has to be

810
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 8: a point at which dad comes home. And when dad

811
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 8: gets home.

812
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 6: You know what he says.

813
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 8: You've been a bad girl.

814
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 4: You've been a bad.

815
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 8: Little girl, and you're getting a vigorous spanking right now.

816
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 8: And no, it's not gonna hurt me more than it

817
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 8: hurts you.

818
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 10: No, it's not.

819
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 4: We could keep that going. By the way, it got

820
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 4: a lot more pronounced and repeated references to girls. He

821
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 4: of course has I believe children of both gender, but

822
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 4: kept referring to how the girl needs a spanking. This

823
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 4: got the crowd chanting Dad is home when Donald Trump

824
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 4: finally came out, and we want to get a sense

825
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 4: if this is in fact the closing argument for the campaign,

826
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 4: what it means for the election, and our political panel

827
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,240
Speaker 4: is back with us now. Jeanie Shanzino, Democratic analyst, Bloomberg

828
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 4: Politics contributor, and political science professor at Iona University, alongside

829
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 4: Mara Gillespie, Republican strategist Bluest Strategies, a veteran of the

830
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,959
Speaker 4: John Bayner Speaker's office. Great to see both of you here, Mora,

831
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 4: I'll start with you as the Republican. The concerns that

832
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 4: Donald Trump has struggled to expand his base and has

833
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 4: found himself with a real deficit when it comes to

834
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 4: women leads itself to last night's rhetoric in what way?

835
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 13: So if you want to really double down on the

836
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 13: fact that you've got a problem with women, a better

837
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 13: way than to have Tuer Carlson espouse such a misogynistic, cringe,

838
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 13: creepy die tribe there about spanking women. I mean, honestly,

839
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 13: it's just I'm cringing still having heard it again and

840
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 13: Tucker Carlson being one of your final voices in this

841
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 13: campaign couldn't be a worst message to send to the

842
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 13: country as a whole, because Tucker Carlson takes great pride

843
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 13: in having lied to his viewers for years and continues

844
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 13: to do so on any platform he gets a chance

845
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 13: to use. And I think what's important to remember here

846
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 13: is that Donald Trump adores High Carlson because of that reason,

847
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 13: because he's able to make money off of lying to

848
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 13: the people who trust him. And yet that's going to

849
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 13: be somebody that Donald Trump has said that he would

850
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 13: bring around him. He could very well get a cabinet

851
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 13: position in the White House should Trump win. And so

852
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 13: really diving in there and doubling down on your problem

853
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 13: with women by having Tiger cross and speak in this manner,

854
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 13: you know, is just it's disgusting, to be honest, and

855
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 13: it's not something that Republicans down about, should in any

856
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 13: way associate with, should really separate themselves from, because it's

857
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 13: not it is not something that we should be proud

858
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:34,720
Speaker 13: of in any shape or form.

859
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 3: Well, of course, we do have to say here, the

860
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 3: Tucker Carlson isn't running for president. Donald Trump is Genie

861
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 3: and he may not have tried to distance himself from

862
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 3: this language, or we may be able to look back

863
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 3: at his being found liable for sexual abuse in the

864
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 3: Eging Carol case, back to the Access Hollywood tapes that

865
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 3: came out in the twenty sixteen election. Yet he won

866
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen. Yet we see in our battleground pulling

867
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: again that he still has solid support between forty seven

868
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: and forty nine percent, consistent for the last year. And

869
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 3: it raises the question if any of this language actually matters.

870
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 14: It matters. I don't think it matters in terms of

871
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 14: moving people away from Donald Trump that have long supported him,

872
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 14: and that's why we always talk about his you know,

873
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 14: his his ceiling. And the fact is that this is

874
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 14: language that people like Tucker Carlson and people on the

875
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 14: Trump side believe is going to be useful for them

876
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 14: in driving out the vote with the young men and

877
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 14: men who are very hard to get out to vote

878
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 14: in the same numbers as women. So it's gotten them

879
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 14: enormous amounts of attention in the last twenty four hours.

880
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 14: And so that's the context in which they're doing it.

881
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 14: They too see the gender divide that the Bloomberg Morning

882
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 14: Council poll and all the other poll shows. And I

883
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 14: would just also say that, you know, Tucker Carlson was

884
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 14: saying this in the context of doling out punishment to

885
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 14: Democrats and members of the media. And this is a

886
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 14: theme that's been running through Donald Trump's campaign, retribution against

887
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 14: those who are opposed to him, revenge, and that is

888
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 14: what we are hearing and seeing. And Kayleie, I have

889
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 14: to add, you missed Joe matthews rendition of it earlier

890
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 14: on the previous hours. That was something to behold and

891
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 14: Mora and I sat through that.

892
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 4: I feel like I should be endured it and apologize

893
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 4: for it. But I look, there are questions about and

894
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 4: I'm not seeking equivalencies here, there are questions about the

895
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 4: effectiveness of both campaigns. Closing arguments. Kamala Harris is talking

896
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 4: about fascism last night in her CNN town hall, following,

897
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 4: of course, the revelations from General John Kelly into separate

898
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 4: interviews yesterday. Let's go back to the town hall on

899
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 4: CNN last evening. Here's the Vice.

900
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 10: President General Millie calling Donald Trump a fascist. You yourself

901
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 10: have not used that word to describe him. Let me

902
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 10: ask you tonight, do you think Donald Trump is a fascist.

903
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:07,280
Speaker 11: Yes, I do, Yes, I do, And I also believe

904
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 11: that the people who know him best on this subject

905
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 11: should be trusted.

906
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,240
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris is down five points in our new Bloomberg

907
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 4: New Swing State pole out today when it comes to

908
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 4: the economy. Is that what she has to train her

909
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 4: attention on as opposed to going back to what was

910
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 4: a Joe Biden refrained that Donald Trump is a fascist

911
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: and a threat to democracy.

912
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 14: You know, she should be talking about the ecanibe. But

913
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 14: the numbers that they're looking at in the campaign are

914
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 14: numbers which show for this very small sliver of moderates

915
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 14: who are still labeling themselves as undecided, it is this

916
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 14: argument that moved them by fourteen percent in some of

917
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 14: this internal polling, and that is the argument that we

918
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 14: can't trust Donald Trump. He is unfit to serve and

919
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:57,720
Speaker 14: in fact most effective not from Kamala Harris, but people

920
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 14: like John Kelly, people like Liz Chain. That's why we

921
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 14: just saw I think a three hundred and seventy million

922
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 14: dollar add by on the part of the Harris campaign

923
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 14: for the Swing States focusing on this very issue. So

924
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 14: while the economy is number one in most people's mind.

925
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 14: You know, we're in such a close race that they

926
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 14: practically need to be going to people's doors and walking

927
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 14: them to the polls. And these people they're trying to

928
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 14: reach you aren't voting early and haven't decided. These are

929
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 14: the people who they think they can move. And so

930
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 14: it's that argument, and it's a reproductive health one and

931
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 14: two with those with those folks well.

932
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 3: And we know reproductive health is what Harris will be

933
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 3: focusing on when she is in Texas tomorrow with Beyonce

934
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 3: in Houston, focusing on abortion. At this time, though she

935
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,720
Speaker 3: is still in Pennsylvania. She's taking questions from the press

936
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 3: right now, will of course bring you any news from

937
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 3: her if we get it, Maura, As we consider what

938
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 3: Genie was just talking about, this idea that she's trying

939
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 3: to bring moderate Republicans onto her side, you probably would

940
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 3: would classify in the camp. And I just wonder if

941
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: if the job she's doing may be effective at convincing

942
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 3: those people not to vote for Trump but not necessarily

943
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 3: to go out and vote for her. Isn't there a

944
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 3: difference there? Is she doing a good enough job of

945
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 3: trying to convince people why she should get their vote.

946
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 13: There is a difference, but there's only so much that

947
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 13: she can do. She can't really, you know. I think

948
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,479
Speaker 13: as a candidate who's running for the office, who wants

949
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 13: to win this election, she should try to get those

950
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 13: voters to vote for her. I as a mount of Republican,

951
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 13: I'm happy to say to my fellow Republicans, you don't

952
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 13: have to vote for Donald Trump, to say a Republican,

953
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 13: you can vote down ballot, and I think that that

954
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 13: message of why he is unfit to serve and why

955
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 13: it's so important not to vote for him a president.

956
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 13: I'm not telling anyone they have to go vote for

957
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris because maybe they don't feel strongly enough to

958
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 13: go do that. Maybe they don't feel as though they

959
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 13: trust her entirely either. But there's a right an option,

960
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 13: but simply too some of these Republicans by not voting

961
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 13: for Donald Trump, there is a net benefit because if

962
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 13: we want to have a government that you know, works

963
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 13: across the aisle, that finds common ground to get things done,

964
00:49:58,280 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 13: then I think the best case scenario of doing that

965
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,760
Speaker 13: is by making sure the House is led by Speaker

966
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 13: MiG Johnson, making sure the Senate is led by John

967
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 13: Thune and moving the ball forward by working together towards

968
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 13: where more things are in the middle. I think most

969
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,240
Speaker 13: of the country is. And I think that by pointing

970
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 13: out that Trump has time and time again shown us

971
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 13: that he is not only unfit to serve mentally physically,

972
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 13: but he just is not there. Again, he's about eighty

973
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 13: years old. And if you had complaints and concerns about

974
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 13: Joe Biden being too old for this job, then you

975
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 13: cannot sit there and say that Donald Trump is rare

976
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 13: and to go when that's just not the case. And

977
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 13: these comments, these you know, adoration for dictators, all the

978
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 13: things that Kamala Harris is pointing out is helpful and

979
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 13: I do think it is effective because it's a reminder

980
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 13: of what could potentially be entering the White House again

981
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 13: in just a matter of months.

982
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 4: Genie Fox News is reporting now that the Trump campaign

983
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 4: has settled on its closing argument. It's closing mantra you

984
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 4: can fit it on a bumper sticker, broke it, Trump

985
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 4: will fix it.

986
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 2: Effective.

987
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 14: Yeah, I think that is effective because you know, what

988
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 14: is it they need to do. It's the same thing

989
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 14: Kamala Harris is doing. He needs to focus attention on

990
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 14: Kamala Harris. Tie her to Joe Biden and say you

991
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 14: broke the economy. Look at the inflation, look at costs

992
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 14: of housing, look at everything like that energy. You don't

993
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 14: want to redo this again. She can't even get up

994
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 14: in that town hall and say what she would do differently,

995
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 14: So you should have me come back and fix it.

996
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 14: That's a good closing message for him, but I am

997
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 14: very suspicious he will be disciplined enough to stick to it.

998
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 14: And by the way, it's the same thing that Kamala

999
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,479
Speaker 14: Harris is doing. He's unfit. He's going to take away

1000
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 14: your freedom to choose and your freedom to have the

1001
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 14: healthcare you and your doctor think is best. And so

1002
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 14: you should stick with the safe choice is me as

1003
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 14: with me. And that's because we have people that are

1004
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 14: trying to now get people out to vote, and nothing

1005
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 14: gets people out to vote like these kinds of negative

1006
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 14: messages scaring people about what's to come if their opponent wins.

1007
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 9: All right.

1008
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 3: Jeanie Shanzeno, Democratic strategist and Bloomberg Politics contributor, alongside Morgi Llespie,

1009
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 3: or Republican strategist at Bluestack Strategies, thank you both for joining.

1010
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 4: Us, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1011
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 4: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1012
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1013
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:36,320
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1014
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.