WEBVTT - What Really Hitting Back Would Look Like: Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>US and British forces launching another major attack on Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>back militias had multiple targets across Yemen. They're aim stopping

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<v Speaker 1>Houthi rebels attacks on ships in the Red Sea. The

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<v Speaker 1>White House insists the strategy is working, but so far

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<v Speaker 1>retaliatory air strikes have failed to stop the Hoothies, and

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<v Speaker 1>it comes amid escalating tensions.

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<v Speaker 2>In the region.

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<v Speaker 1>US troops at Alasad Air Base in Iraq came under

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<v Speaker 1>attack over the weekend. Iranian back militias fed seventeen ballistic

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<v Speaker 1>missiles and rockets. Most were intercepted, but the Pentagon says

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<v Speaker 1>at least two US personnels suffered traumatic brain injuries.

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<v Speaker 2>I like the two back to back sentences. The administration

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<v Speaker 2>insists their deterrence is working, the Houthis continue to attack.

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<v Speaker 2>Those two things do not fit together. It became clear

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<v Speaker 2>to me. I was just thinking about it before we

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<v Speaker 2>played these clips. The reason the I could call it

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<v Speaker 2>the Obama Biden crowd because I think it goes clear

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<v Speaker 2>back to the not acting on the Red Line in Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you make it clear to people that you're

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<v Speaker 2>not going to punch them in the mouth, then the

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<v Speaker 2>whole don't don't doesn't work. The only way don't doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 2>It does work is if you've made it clear to

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<v Speaker 2>people that you mean business, you're going to punch them

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<v Speaker 2>in the mouth. Then dont can work. But it doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>work if you've made it clear that you're not willing

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<v Speaker 2>to do that.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, I agree one hundred percent. I think now might

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<v Speaker 3>be a great time to usher in. Mike Clions, military

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<v Speaker 3>analyst from CNN. Mike, it's always enlightening.

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<v Speaker 4>How are you taking one of you guys? Good to

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<v Speaker 4>be back?

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you. I think it would be fairly safe to

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<v Speaker 3>say that practically the entire mission of an intelligence operation

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<v Speaker 3>is to figure out what your opponent is actually going

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<v Speaker 3>to do, what they're actually thinking. And it's our opinion

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<v Speaker 3>that the United States is absolutely telegraphing the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>what we're actually going to do is practically nothing.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's difficult to see where this administration goes. They

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<v Speaker 4>whip saw back and forth, beature these air strikes and

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<v Speaker 4>to Yemen and thinking they're going to stop the hooties

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<v Speaker 4>and actually deter them and make statements like you just said,

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<v Speaker 4>and then actually having that as a result. And my favorite,

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<v Speaker 4>my favorite is when they sit there and say, well,

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<v Speaker 4>the Uranians are not involved with this. Uranians don't want

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<v Speaker 4>any escalation. But the Iranians fingerprints are all over this.

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<v Speaker 4>They're the ones directing these attacks, they're the ones that's

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<v Speaker 4>provided the information, they're the ones that have given them

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<v Speaker 4>all supply. So I don't buy that one either. I

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<v Speaker 4>don't buy that the Uranians don't want to escalate it.

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<v Speaker 4>I just think they're confident that we're not going to

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<v Speaker 4>do anything. On top of that, to your point, it's

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<v Speaker 4>you know, we've gotten away from the Teddy Roosevelt speaks

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<v Speaker 4>softly and carry a big stick. Instead, we have hysteronics

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<v Speaker 4>and we try to proclaim all kinds of things with

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<v Speaker 4>regard to what we're going to do, and then and

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<v Speaker 4>then you know it just can't can't follow through.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you said on TV the other day and then

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<v Speaker 2>you tweeted it what a what really hitting back would

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<v Speaker 2>look like with the sustained air campaign.

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<v Speaker 4>Explain that to it, right, right, So we've got to

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<v Speaker 4>tell the who he's okay, we're going to end we're

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<v Speaker 4>going to be at war with you now, and the

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<v Speaker 4>fact that we're shooting each other for different reasons. I

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<v Speaker 4>think you know the hoho. Thies want well with us.

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<v Speaker 4>They want to punch up, they want to punch up

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<v Speaker 4>for their weight, and we keep saying, oh no, no, we

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<v Speaker 4>just want to open up the shipping lanes. But we

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<v Speaker 4>have to sit there and say, now, okay, we need

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<v Speaker 4>a thirty day air campaign twenty four to seven twenty,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, two thousand sorties a day, continuous bombing, continuous mission,

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<v Speaker 4>similar to what we did in Desert Storm. It would

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<v Speaker 4>be a tremendous investment for us to do this. But

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<v Speaker 4>this is going to not stop until you stop, and

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<v Speaker 4>it's we're not going to be tit for tat. We're

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<v Speaker 4>not going to only fire these rockets at you when

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<v Speaker 4>you fire one at us. And I think that's what

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<v Speaker 4>we should do that we should do it for a

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<v Speaker 4>certain period of time, have a specific metric that says

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<v Speaker 4>you're going to stop fighting at us, and it should

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<v Speaker 4>last for a while, as opposed to saying, okay, this

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<v Speaker 4>is it. Now is the last one we're going to fire,

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<v Speaker 4>so don't fire anything more of us. So a formal

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<v Speaker 4>air campaign up puts a lot of American airmen and

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<v Speaker 4>Navy pilots and harms way. But I think that's the

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<v Speaker 4>only way you're going to get them to stop the philosophy.

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<v Speaker 3>The answer to that would be they're going to be

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<v Speaker 3>in harm's way eventually. Anyway, we're trying to preclude the

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<v Speaker 3>greater harm and not to get too far afield into

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<v Speaker 3>psychology and diplomacy. But it strikes me that in the

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<v Speaker 3>same way that the Twitter left has a wildly outsized

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<v Speaker 3>influence and domestic policy as if that's the American people,

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<v Speaker 3>I think the diplomatic intelligentsia un crowd has an outsized

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<v Speaker 3>effect on the Biden administration's foreign policy. They are so

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<v Speaker 3>interested in courting the approval of these people as opposed

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<v Speaker 3>to fixing their eyes on a successful execution of the

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<v Speaker 3>goals of the United States and the needs of the

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<v Speaker 3>US that I just I think that the foreign policies

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<v Speaker 3>perverse in that way.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, it's a globalist mentality that exists on a one level,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's also wishing the world the way they want

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<v Speaker 4>it to be, as supposed to the way it is

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<v Speaker 4>real politique. And I think that is the main reason

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<v Speaker 4>that the main change that will come to an administration

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<v Speaker 4>if it happens, and the Obama administration and the Biden industry,

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<v Speaker 4>we should think that this is a world but the

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<v Speaker 4>Iranians will eventually come to the table and be part

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<v Speaker 4>of the international community, and all lot will go with that.

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<v Speaker 4>This is not going to happen, and they're doing everything

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<v Speaker 4>they can in order to try to give the Iranians

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<v Speaker 4>every way out to do that. I just think we've

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<v Speaker 4>run out of time for a long time about that.

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<v Speaker 2>You also tweeted out the large number of different sorts

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<v Speaker 2>of little I don't know what you want to call them,

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<v Speaker 2>points of conflict around the Middle East to exist. There's

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<v Speaker 2>there's like a dozen.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's an amazing we think about it. If you

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<v Speaker 4>just take inventory about who's shooting at home in the

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<v Speaker 4>Middle East, and they're all mostly trending up. We saw

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<v Speaker 4>the Iranians. Now let's go back to Iran. Iran is

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<v Speaker 4>an authoritative government that now as I see it, is

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<v Speaker 4>more focused on internal problems. The fact that we had

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<v Speaker 4>isis to attack. We saw Isis attack them in Kerman

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<v Speaker 4>a couple of weeks ago. They're starting to have I

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<v Speaker 4>think internal issues with separatist organizations, which is why they

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<v Speaker 4>decide to attack into Pakistan, into the Blue Cheese and

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<v Speaker 4>those organizations that want to see the overthrown of of

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<v Speaker 4>the Iranian government, and now they are attacking into Syria

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<v Speaker 4>to attack ISIS units in there, and then they're attacking

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<v Speaker 4>into Iraq and US forces are seeing the side effects

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<v Speaker 4>of that, but they're also attacking the Kurds there. The

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<v Speaker 4>Iranian government I think is now sending a message within

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<v Speaker 4>the Middle East about they've got to show within their

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<v Speaker 4>country that they're going to stand up the threats that

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<v Speaker 4>they have, and they're starting to see the fact that

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<v Speaker 4>terrorism has now come home to roost in Iran is

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<v Speaker 4>a big change, and I think that's why they're going

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<v Speaker 4>to see them escalate with a lot of these attacks

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<v Speaker 4>outside of Iran by Iranian forces, not the proxies.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's turn our gaze to Israel for a moment at least,

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<v Speaker 3>it seems that the trading of ordinance with Hesbala is

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<v Speaker 3>absolutely on the brink of erupting into an all at war.

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<v Speaker 3>Does it seem that way to.

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<v Speaker 4>You, Yeah, that's the biggest concern in that. The only

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<v Speaker 4>thing holding that back is two things. I think the

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<v Speaker 4>population there does not want a war, and it's classic

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<v Speaker 4>example of Hesbolah runs the country as a kind of

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<v Speaker 4>an outside organization and the Iranians, I think are putting

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<v Speaker 4>a little bit of the brakes on them as well,

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<v Speaker 4>because if they gave them the green light, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that they would go and I think that would open

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<v Speaker 4>up a second front. You know, this is two countries, Israel,

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<v Speaker 4>is An Ali, the United States, Hesbela Gaza or the

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<v Speaker 4>Housis Hamas, all of these other Iranian proxy organizations, they're

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<v Speaker 4>all under existential threats right now. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 4>the calculus that the Iranians are making. And I think

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<v Speaker 4>that for right now, they don't want to see hes

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<v Speaker 4>Blah destroyed because I think they're watching Hamas be destroyed

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<v Speaker 4>in place in the southern part of Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, with Israel losing was it twenty one or twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four guys in one day, man opening up another front,

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<v Speaker 2>that'd be something.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, they have those units that they had brought up.

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<v Speaker 4>That's why they brot up three hundred thousand recalls back

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<v Speaker 4>in October, and they since some home already, but they're

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<v Speaker 4>in it for an existential fight, so I don't think

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<v Speaker 4>they're going to stop. It's starting to hurt their economy.

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<v Speaker 4>This is where no allies that they have right now

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<v Speaker 4>is really hurting them if the world will change, if

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<v Speaker 4>the Saudis or some other Middle Eastern country the sides

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<v Speaker 4>to come to the support of Israel, and I think

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<v Speaker 4>that's when the world changes. But we just don't see

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<v Speaker 4>that in site.

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<v Speaker 3>Interesting. Yeah, from what I've understood, the Israeli the IDF

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<v Speaker 3>are a little discouraged at the extent to which they

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<v Speaker 3>have destroyed Hamas, because Hamas is pretty good at melting

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<v Speaker 3>into the landscape and the tunnels and the rest and

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<v Speaker 3>surviving it. So it's just unquestionable that this is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be a long slog, and you know, the fatigue

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<v Speaker 3>both of Israel and its people and the international community

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be balanced against more and more hostages

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<v Speaker 3>turning up dead and more and more attacks from Hamas

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<v Speaker 3>and Hesbel. I just I think this. I think we

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<v Speaker 3>need to settle in for the long haul.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I don't see any and in sight, in fact,

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<v Speaker 4>I think is double trending up. I think it's the

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<v Speaker 4>Israeli government is not going to stop. And at this

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<v Speaker 4>point now until they get more hostages back, there'll be

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<v Speaker 4>no cease fire, there'll be nothing. They're just going to

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<v Speaker 4>continue to just raise the ground down there.

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<v Speaker 2>So the we mentioned this. Yesterday, the Open Intelligence Defense

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<v Speaker 2>crowd was reporting that there's some people in defense in

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<v Speaker 2>the Pentagon or wherever that are really unhappy with the

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<v Speaker 2>administration not letting them just do what they got to

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<v Speaker 2>do to stop the houthis do you hear any any

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<v Speaker 2>of that kind of chatter.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I know they've been given many courses of action

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<v Speaker 4>because back to one of those courses of action has

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<v Speaker 4>been an air campaign and has been a much more detailed,

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<v Speaker 4>in a better operation. We know where the who, the

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<v Speaker 4>supply chains are, we know where the logistics are. The

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<v Speaker 4>other thing that just going to go with this though,

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<v Speaker 4>is we're going to have to resupply. If we keep

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<v Speaker 4>launching Tomahawk missiles in their direction, we're going to start

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<v Speaker 4>running out ourselves. And now you think about from strategic perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>if you know, if all these destroyers that we're sending

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<v Speaker 4>there and firing all these Tomahawk missiles were kind of

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<v Speaker 4>not keeping our powder dry for something that could potentially

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<v Speaker 4>happen in the Far East. So it's got to be

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<v Speaker 4>part of an overall campaign that the administration thinks it's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be over very quickly. But I think from

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<v Speaker 4>what the people I talked in the Pentagon, and the

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<v Speaker 4>people that I know there are always looking over the

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<v Speaker 4>horizon to make sure that we're ready to go for really,

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<v Speaker 4>what's going to be the next bigger conflict.

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<v Speaker 3>Military analyst Mike Liones a CNN. Mike, great to talk

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<v Speaker 3>to you, Thanks for the time.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks guys, thanks for habbing me.

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<v Speaker 2>Armstrong and Getty