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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I can just about that action all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from test throwing out so spect we're

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Speaker 3: sitting up to cats touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible to make money, all right, this is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate combini.

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Speaker 3: If you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are under way, what's if?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 2: This is our NFL Divisional Round betting preview. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: break down our top side total crops, give out in

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Speaker 2: any time touchdown part way as well for the divisional

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Speaker 2: rounds for games this weekend. Joining me as always the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. Stucky, stuck, what is going on?

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Speaker 2: You're still up fifty ninety eight on a six pack?

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Speaker 2: I actually made a couple, got a couple of points

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Speaker 2: on you last week. Any thoughts on the wildcard round

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Speaker 2: before we're on to the original round.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was my worst week of the year, which sucks.

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Speaker 3: During the playoffs. I got great numbers, which is great

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Speaker 3: in the long run, but in the short run, you

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Speaker 3: just want to win. That's all the matters, especially during

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Speaker 3: the playoffs like in those games were awesome, But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm a better I only enjoy the games as much

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Speaker 3: as my as well as my bets are going. So

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Speaker 3: you know, to get was dead wrong on the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: I can't believe how bad Herbert played JAG's first half

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Speaker 3: like getting them as a dog in them closing minus

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Speaker 3: one forty five, they missed a field goal, they lose

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Speaker 3: Parker Washington for the entire half, Lawrence's shin goes down

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Speaker 3: on fourth and two, and then they lose. The Packers

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Speaker 3: as a dog was unfortunate, to say the least. The

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Speaker 3: fourth and eight blowing. It was only the second time

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Speaker 3: in NFL history a team has scored twenty five or

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Speaker 3: more points in a fifteen plus point comeback in the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter in the playoffs. The other was the Patriots

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Speaker 3: against the Falcons, which was one of my biggest betting

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Speaker 3: losses of all time when I had the Falcons plus

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Speaker 3: four and a half. So I won't forget that game

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Speaker 3: for a long time. That was just painful. All the

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Speaker 3: miskicks there too, So margins are thin in the NFL playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Lines are tight. You know, ultimately you just want to

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Speaker 3: get the best of the number and hope there it's

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Speaker 3: breaks away. But it was shitty, having a shitty weekend.

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Speaker 3: So hopefully this weekend a couple more bounces go my

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Speaker 3: way and a couple of the reads are better. Because

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Speaker 3: the Chargers, I mean, Herbert was atrocious. Even in clean pockets,

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Speaker 3: he had guys open. He was inaccurate. You cannot blame

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Speaker 3: that all on the pressure. He looked like a rookie

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Speaker 3: out there. How it was stunning to watch it. I

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Speaker 3: couldn't believe how bad he was.

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Speaker 1: No thing I was.

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Speaker 2: I was kicking myself like for because it was like

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Speaker 2: I think I was telling you, like the only thing

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Speaker 2: I thought the Packers in the Chargers were the right sides,

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Speaker 2: But I was like the intangibles, like these teams, both

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Speaker 2: of these teams in the playoffs. Just I don't trust him.

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Speaker 2: I'm just kicking myself for not betting the other sides.

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Speaker 2: But how about Greg Roman again, remember the Gus Edwards

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Speaker 2: when he didn't give Gus Avers the ball or.

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Speaker 1: No who I was bunking right?

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Speaker 2: So now you have Greg Roman doing it like a

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Speaker 2: former Baltimore guy. Uh with with with the like with

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Speaker 2: the tire running game, Like they just didn't run the

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Speaker 2: ball at all.

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Speaker 1: I think. I don't even think Hampton was hurt. Was

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Speaker 1: he he got one carry?

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Speaker 3: No, he was hurt?

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Speaker 1: They yeah, okay, okay, because like it was.

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Speaker 3: I mean, but I don't even think they tried to

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Speaker 3: put him out there and he couldn't move. I was

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Speaker 3: shocked even dressed. But yeah, so, uh to on the

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Speaker 3: division A round there, let's pick some winners.

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Speaker 1: Let's do it.

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Speaker 3: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: You're up first, fifty nine to forty eight. Two points

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Speaker 2: for our first two, third point for a third, and

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Speaker 2: we can do size totals like anything, as long as

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Speaker 2: we have one total, one sider total for this week.

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Speaker 2: Since there's obviously best games, we're opening it up more

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Speaker 2: so props are included, but we need at least one

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Speaker 2: side of total. With that being said, and we will

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Speaker 2: cover every game in the six pack. I'll just tell

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Speaker 2: you guys that now stuck. Where are you going with

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Speaker 2: your first pick of the division round six pack?

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Speaker 3: All right, for my first pick of the Divisional round

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Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with the Los Angeles Rams team

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Speaker 3: total over twenty six and half this totals come down

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Speaker 3: a bit, which I don't necessarily agree with. I was

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Speaker 3: thinking about under fifty one and a half, but now

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Speaker 3: that it's at forty eight and a half, I think

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Speaker 3: that it's gone a little bit too far, and I

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Speaker 3: think the Rams get to at least twenty seven here,

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Speaker 3: don't have to mess around with all the Bears voodoo.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, this doesn't seem sustainable going

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Speaker 3: down multiple scores, like every game they have seven wins

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Speaker 3: when trialing with under two minutes ago, an NFL record.

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Speaker 3: But I just can't see the Rams not doing whatever

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Speaker 3: they want on offense here. I mean, like the Rams

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Speaker 3: could line up and run the ball whenever they want.

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Speaker 3: Here they're playing a Bears defense that overall is twenty

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Speaker 3: eighth and DBA twenty six and success rate thirtieth and

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Speaker 3: EPA per play SAMs turnoversnumber one and turnover margin number

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Speaker 3: one in takeaways. That's not going to last forever. Their

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Speaker 3: run defense is twenty eighth in DBA twenty seventh in

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Speaker 3: rush success rate. By the way, another a prop that

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Speaker 3: I really like that I consider for the six pack

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Speaker 3: is Blake korm Over longest rush eleven and a half

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Speaker 3: twelve and a half. I think his median is is fifteen.

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Speaker 3: He has one carry of at least twelve yards and

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Speaker 3: ten of his seventeen games if you remove the opener

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Speaker 3: when you only had one carry. But he also didn't

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Speaker 3: see a workload increase until around week seven, and his

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Speaker 3: percentage of explosive runs is significantly higher. With Dotson right,

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Speaker 3: his explosive run percentage dropped at the end of the year.

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Speaker 3: I think Dotson's going to be back. He's one of

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Speaker 3: the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. He'll

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Speaker 3: help Korm a lot because Korm runs a lot inside

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Speaker 3: and then he runs a lot of outside zone. The Bears,

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Speaker 3: by the way, are thirtieth verse outside zone. Korm averages

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Speaker 3: one yard per carry more than Karen Williams on outside

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Speaker 3: zone runs. So McVeigh can go super heavy here, run

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Speaker 3: the ball whenever he wants. And by the way, TJ.

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Speaker 3: Edwards is out for the Bears. Al Bears allow close

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Speaker 3: to six yards per carry with Edwards off the field.

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Speaker 3: There are Eddy one of five teams that allow five

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Speaker 3: plus yards per carry. It gets even worse with Edwards.

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Speaker 3: Their depth that linebacker is rough. The interior of the

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Speaker 3: defensive line can't stop the run. And look, this Bears team,

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Speaker 3: going back to Korum, has allowed a run of twelve

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Speaker 3: or more yards in fifteen of their eighteen games to

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Speaker 3: non quarterbacks. I mean that doesn't include long runs by

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Speaker 3: Geno Smith, shardor Sanders Malik Willis, but twenty three non

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks have had a run of at least twelve yards

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Speaker 3: in eighteen games. Seven of the eighteen games multiple non

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks did so I think there's a really good chance

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Speaker 3: Korn breaks a couple explosive runs. Don't mind his like

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Speaker 3: over rushing yards either, but look, the Bear struggled to

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Speaker 3: defend heavy personnel that route. I mean, the runs basically

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Speaker 3: could do whatever they want here on offense. And the

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Speaker 3: other thing is, you know, you're going to see a

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Speaker 3: lot of stats about Stafford and the cold and how

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Speaker 3: he struggled. A lot of those were when he was

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Speaker 3: on bad Lions teams, Like I think he has a

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Speaker 3: poor record. Last year in Philly in the snow, he

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Speaker 3: looked pretty damn good. I mean, Nikoole went to BYU,

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Speaker 3: You got your running backs all went to cold weather schools.

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Speaker 3: Adams played in Green Bay. It's it's not going to be.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be an issue here.

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Speaker 3: I do have you do have to worry a little

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Speaker 3: bit about Stafford. Stafford's finger and Adam's hamstring in the

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Speaker 3: That's the only thing I really worry about. But this

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Speaker 3: Bear's defense is pathetic. I mean, if you just look

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Speaker 3: at a from a points perspective, the Rams against non

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Speaker 3: top five defenses. So if you remove seatlet Houston and

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Speaker 3: Philly from their schedule, and by the way, they should

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Speaker 3: have scored thirty plus against Philly. They did score thirty

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Speaker 3: plus against Seattle on one of their meetings. But if

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Speaker 3: you remove the top five defenses, they averaged thirty And

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Speaker 3: this Bears defense is a bottom ten defense. They averaged

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Speaker 3: thirty two and a half points per game. They reached

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Speaker 3: twenty seven in eleven of the fourteen games. The Bears

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Speaker 3: defense is twenty third in points allowed, despite leading the

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Speaker 3: league in turnovers. They've also been pretty lucky on offense

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Speaker 3: with turnovers. So you could see maybe some short fields here,

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Speaker 3: and like I said, dots in back. Potentially, I think

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Speaker 3: he is is going to be huge. I expect both

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Speaker 3: coaches to be aggressive here. I mentioned that last week.

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Speaker 3: I thought after that Lion's game. I was like, Ben

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Speaker 3: Johnson gonna go on fourth down a ton and he did,

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Speaker 3: but the Bear should have had They could have easily

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Speaker 3: had more points early in that game. And the other

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Speaker 3: thing worth mentioning here is the Rams defense has cratered

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Speaker 3: of late. Over the first twelve weeks of the season,

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Speaker 3: they were number one in EPA per play, and I

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Speaker 3: kept bringing I kept bringing this up.

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Speaker 1: They said Lake went down though, right like like week twelve,

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Speaker 1: I think it.

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Speaker 3: Was, yes, yeah, But also they over the first twelve weeks,

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Speaker 3: I kept bringing this up. They had so many favorable situations.

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Speaker 3: Right they played the Bucks, Baker got hurt right then

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Speaker 3: it was just a joke. They played the Ravens with

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Speaker 3: Cooper Rush. They played Stroud in the opener when the

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Speaker 3: offense they had offensive line injuries right before kick and

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Speaker 3: they had to flip their entire offensive line around. They

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Speaker 3: played cam Ward in his second start, Spencer Rattler. Their

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Speaker 3: last seven games, including the wild card game, their twentieth

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Speaker 3: and EPA per play, and they faced the Panthers and

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Speaker 3: Cardinals twice each. They're giving up a ton of explosives.

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Speaker 3: The Bears can hit explosives. The Rams also can hit

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Speaker 3: explosives the run pass game, Bears will give them up.

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Speaker 3: So I think that the Bears can put up their

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Speaker 3: fair share of points here, which will force the Rams

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Speaker 3: to keep their foot on the gas. So yeah, we

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Speaker 3: worry a little bit about the you know, the Stafford

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Speaker 3: finger and the cold Adams hamstring. But they can go

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Speaker 3: heavy and run the ball and throw to their tight

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Speaker 3: ends here if they need to, and just throw it

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Speaker 3: in the coup as leads as the NFL record for

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Speaker 3: average reception yards in the postseason, and they'll be able

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Speaker 3: to move the ball just like everyone does against the Bears.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I think now that this total

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Speaker 3: is has come down, I think it's come down a

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Speaker 3: little bit too far out. I think that the Rams

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Speaker 3: team total should be like twenty eight. So yeah, I'll

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Speaker 3: take over twenty six and a half. Everywhere I look,

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Speaker 3: there's advantages for this Rams offense against the Bears defense.

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Speaker 2: I in the interest of just you know, looking at

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Speaker 2: both sides of the point. The only thing I'm surprised

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Speaker 2: you didn't mention as the biggest concern, like the Rams

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Speaker 2: Rams special teams stupidness. I feel like that's that's one

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Speaker 2: of the ways that that the if the Rams flow short,

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Speaker 2: it will be that. I think there there is some

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Speaker 2: risk with like, you know, kind of looking at how

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Speaker 2: this game is gonna play out. I think potentially why

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Speaker 2: the total came down you know, bad weather, and I

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Speaker 2: actually think both coaches might be less aggressive in the

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Speaker 2: sense that, Okay, like Ben Johnson, he knew he had

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Speaker 2: a score against the Packers last week, they came out

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Speaker 2: super aggressive.

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Speaker 1: Didn't really work out actually.

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Speaker 2: But now his defense is even more ravaged, and I

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Speaker 2: think I think he's gonna feel.

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Speaker 1: Like he can run.

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Speaker 2: You can still run the ball here, and he's so

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Speaker 2: I think the Bears might just go like super heavy,

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Speaker 2: commit love wind, you know they they and and uh,

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Speaker 2: because they've been calling up a fourth tight end to

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Speaker 2: play special teams Nikol look clinic.

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Speaker 1: I think that's how.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever heard his name pronounced on

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Speaker 2: air because he's never taught the ball. But so they

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Speaker 2: might go heavy and then yeah, I think the Rams

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Speaker 2: Rams surprisingly went and part of this was just trailing

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Speaker 2: game script or neutral games scrip, but they didn't really

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Speaker 2: use as much of their you know, heavy tight end

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Speaker 2: sets last week against the Panthers, which is a little

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Speaker 2: bit surprising, maybe because Devon says back, but I do

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Speaker 2: think they'll lean into more of that, so that that

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Speaker 2: is how you could fall short the MC they might

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Speaker 2: be trying to win like a twenty to ten game

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Speaker 2: or something like that. But I do agree the Bears

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Speaker 2: without Edwards five point seven yards per carry in the

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Speaker 2: games that he's missed, four point five in the games

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Speaker 2: that he's played, so they've been like about a league

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Speaker 2: average run defense.

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Speaker 1: Same thing with the touchdown rate has been better than

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Speaker 1: we average.

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Speaker 2: It balloons to nearly four percent in the games that

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Speaker 2: Edwards has missed, and it's and that's you know, in

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Speaker 2: addition to the fact that like you could get mismatches

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Speaker 2: on them. We saw I think it was Jayden Reid

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Speaker 2: before Edward's run down. I believe it was Jayden Reid

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Speaker 2: got a matchup on on a linebacker. I think it

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Speaker 2: was Edwards and scored either scored or almost scored last week.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the Rams are gonna be able

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Speaker 2: to do it, do what they want, but you never

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Speaker 2: know what's going on with Stafford and have special teams unit.

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Speaker 2: But I agree, I think the Bears defenses is the

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Speaker 2: weakest unit in this in this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there could be some wind. It doesn't look like terrible,

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Speaker 3: but there could be like twenty to thirty mins win gus.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's an extra point, you know, you know

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Speaker 2: it's gonna you know, you're gonna have to sweat out

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Speaker 2: like a like they're gonna be stuck on twenty six

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Speaker 2: and you're gonna have to sweat out like the Bears

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Speaker 2: turning it over and mcveig going for another field goal

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Speaker 2: late or something something stupid.

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Speaker 3: The other thing is the Bears don't get pressure, and

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Speaker 3: that's what you need to do to throw off Stafford,

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Speaker 3: so he should have time. And there's just there's just

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Speaker 3: too many advantages. And I do think that the Bears

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Speaker 3: can hit exploses and put up their fair share of points.

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Speaker 3: I don't think like the Rams are gonna hold them

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Speaker 3: to like ten to thirteen points. And this Bears team

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Speaker 3: will just never stop coming. Two great offensive minds. So

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Speaker 3: even with the weather and the cold, I'll roll with

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Speaker 3: the Rams over. And I like the quorum longest rushover

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Speaker 3: as well. Where are you going next?

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Speaker 2: For my first pick in the second overall of the

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Speaker 2: division round six pack, going with Woody Marks under fifty

286
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Speaker 2: eight and a half rushing yards. I like the Woody

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Speaker 2: marks under I think the mark is generally high on

288
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Speaker 2: him after a what I guess was a breakout performance.

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Speaker 2: I guess you could consider that a breakout performance for

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Speaker 2: him last week against the Steelers with nineteen carries four

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve yards at a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: But I think this is a totally different spot this week.

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Speaker 2: So, first of all, Woody March has been and we've

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Speaker 2: talked about this, he's been extremely inefficient as a runner.

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Speaker 1: Now now it's not all on him.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Sexans offensive line it might be

297
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Speaker 2: better than last year, but it's not great. So he

298
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Speaker 2: averages three point six yards per Carrie. You know, he's

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Speaker 2: been highly inefficient this year. And when you look at

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Speaker 2: the Patriots their run defense night and day with Milton

301
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Speaker 2: Williams on or off the field.

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Speaker 3: So get Crater laid with Williams out and then their

303
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Speaker 3: linebacker injuries. Yeah, obviously it's so much better for them

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Speaker 3: the field, and Tonga should be back as.

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Speaker 1: Well, Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 2: And so, and this is something I think is going

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Speaker 2: a little bit underlooked, is that, Okay, you know, we

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Speaker 2: can criticize the Chargers all we want and they obviously

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Speaker 2: fired the coordinator. They didn't run the ball at all

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Speaker 2: last week, and I think, you know, yes, that's on them,

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Speaker 2: But that also says something about the deterrent that the

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Speaker 2: Patriots run defense is at full strength because you had

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Speaker 2: justin Herbert with you know, Price still nursing that hand injury.

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Speaker 2: You still you had two backup tackles. Your offensive line

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Speaker 2: is still not great. I know they're probably healthier than

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Speaker 2: they've been in some weeks, but still not great. And

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Speaker 2: you just didn't run the ball, even in the down

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Speaker 2: in the red zone, off turnovers, just didn't run the ball.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's significant.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that the texts will come out and

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Speaker 2: just not run the ball, But I do think that

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Speaker 2: there's a little bit more of a deterrent than people

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Speaker 2: are are are kind of giving credit for to the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: And then you could you also have the fact that yes,

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Speaker 2: you know, Nick Chubb technically got some garbage time carries,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't like full garbage time. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: were up seventeen to six, it was an eleven point game,

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Speaker 2: and Mark's on that same drive. Chubb got six carries,

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Speaker 2: Mars got three himself, including the last carry, So there's

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Speaker 2: no guarantee that Marx gets like, you know, eighty percent

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Speaker 2: ninety percent of the carries. He's averaged about seventy percent

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Speaker 2: of the designed backfield runs as the RB one. But

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Speaker 2: if you go back and look at those games, they're

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Speaker 2: averaging a point differential of plus eight in those games

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Speaker 2: they won all but one of them. So now you're

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Speaker 2: an underdog in New England. So you're already projected to

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Speaker 2: number one lose and number two just being a lot

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Speaker 2: more neutral and negative game script. Then you've been pretty

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Speaker 2: much throughout like Marx's run as the number one back,

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Speaker 2: and the one game that the Texans did not win,

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Speaker 2: you know that Marx was the number one back for

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Speaker 2: he got fifteen garries and he didn't he didn't do

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Speaker 2: much of anything. So if you look at the Patriots

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Speaker 2: this year, they're run defense three point eight yards per

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Speaker 2: carry with Milton Williams in games Milton Williams is played

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Speaker 2: and it goes up to.

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Speaker 1: Five point zero in the games he's missed.

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Speaker 3: The touchdown rates, which is about which would be bottom five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly one hundred and forty seven yards per game

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Speaker 2: total rushing in the games Williams missed eighty three yards

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Speaker 2: per game total, not even just right total in the

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Speaker 2: games he's played thirteen games.

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Speaker 3: Now, Yeah, three point eight would be second in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: behind just Seattle was a historically dominant yeah rush defense,

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Speaker 3: and five would be you know, the time with the

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Speaker 3: Bears of twenty ninth.

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Speaker 1: And just for some context, the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 2: So we're going under fifty eight at half, right, the

359
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Speaker 2: New England Patriots in the games Williams played, they're high

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Speaker 2: allowed to running backs fifty eight yards in the game

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Speaker 2: that he got injured in.

362
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Speaker 1: They did not give up.

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Speaker 2: They only gave up fifty one other time in Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they only give up fifty one other time.

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Speaker 1: That was to Sean Tucker in Week ten.

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Speaker 2: But besides that, they've held they held every other running

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Speaker 2: backs in the first ten weeks under fifty. And then

368
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Speaker 2: we saw that the Charges didn't even try last week.

369
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Speaker 2: So and you also have like there's a possibility, you know,

370
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Speaker 2: rub Mixes in the Texas might even have four active

371
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Speaker 2: running backs because they have you know, jar Jordan, I mean,

372
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Speaker 2: I don't know if he's gonna be healthy. And then

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Speaker 2: you also have the fact like the Texans aren't really

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Speaker 2: Like you could say, Okay, well the Texas about Nico,

375
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Speaker 2: they could they do run like heavier. You know, they'll

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Speaker 2: they'll bring in an extra offensive lineman and they have

377
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Speaker 2: a full back on the roster technically in Brooks, even

378
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Speaker 2: though he's tiny. So like you think, okay, Texas could

379
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Speaker 2: just beef up and just hammer with marks, but like

380
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Speaker 2: they're not really good at that, Like they're not a

381
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 2: good for all the heavy that they run, They're not

382
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 2: really good at it. So you could still get marks

383
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 2: like twenty carries and he can still go under this number.

384
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Marx under fifty eight and a half.

385
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 2: Patriots run defense has just been just lights out with

386
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Speaker 2: million Milton Williams, and if Gonzales misses, which is a possibility,

387
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 2: you still might want to attack the Patriots on the

388
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 2: back end you have, you know, with CJ. Stroud, assuming

389
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 2: they could get the ball snaps. So yeah, give me

390
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Speaker 2: marks under fifty eight and a half.

391
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Speaker 3: Well, there's also probably the high he Marx probably has

392
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 3: the highest risk of any player in NFL history of

393
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: going to the medical tent every game. So yeah, I mean,

394
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 3: this isn't a great Houston rushing offense. Their bottom five

395
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 3: and rush efficiency, explosive run percentage. But so this game's

396
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 3: tough for me to crack just because I still don't

397
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 3: have a great feel in the Patriots, like because of

398
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 3: their schedule, like the easy schedule in twenty five years

399
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 3: with Drake May passes every test, although like that the

400
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 3: first top ten defense he face last week, the operation

401
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 3: did not look smooth. And I worry about their offensive

402
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 3: line against this Houston pass rush. Ah, Like ye did

403
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 3: you see their rookies.

404
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 1: There, They've been worse.

405
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,719
Speaker 2: So that's been tough for me to project too, because

406
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 2: like I was, you know, usually I like to go in,

407
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 2: especially playoff time and really kind of make sure I

408
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 2: have everything exact, like you know, accounting for every guy

409
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 2: that's missed games, you know, offensive line everything, and so

410
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: like I go and you know, I know Campbell miss

411
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 2: some games, Wilson missing games, you know, okay, you know,

412
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 2: looking to just like maybe adjust their their you know,

413
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: yards before contact, their their pressure rate, and like they're

414
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: they've been worse with their with those guys like in

415
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 2: the lineup, which is a concert, it's probably it's probably

416
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: just an underspot where Rabel like wins out and like

417
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 2: the Patriots just look like a seasoned.

418
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 1: Team and Houston looks stupid.

419
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: I mean you just took at the ball snat last week,

420
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 2: like they lose that game to like twenty like like

421
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 2: probably like what eight ninety percent of the playoff field in.

422
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:04,640
Speaker 1: Any other year.

423
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: Like it's just it was just like Pittsburgh, like houstdon't

424
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 2: look terrible last week on offense, Like I don't know,

425
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 2: I don't know how they score points, like especially if

426
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: Neco's out. That that's my handicap for that game.

427
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, the it's just for how many plays can the

428
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 3: Houston defense make? And then the other thing is like

429
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 3: the Patriots defense, I love like they change up a

430
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: lot of coverages. They disguised very well, but they didn't

431
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 3: they didn't face I mean they faced just Josh Allen

432
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,360
Speaker 3: was like the only liable quarterback they faced all year.

433
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 3: I wanted to see them against Herbert. They destroyed him,

434
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 3: but like there were throws to be made, there were

435
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 3: guys open, So like I don't so again, I'm kind

436
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 3: of like that data point is cloudy to me.

437
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 1: So it's very bol It's just the only thing you have.

438
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 3: The other thing I worried about with Mark the only

439
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 3: thing I word would curious thoughts about Marx is because

440
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: there is this I don't think Nico Collins is going

441
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 3: to play now. It's playoff concussions, right, so like they're

442
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,640
Speaker 3: kind of non existent, But this is a short week

443
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 3: in his looked really bad and it's not his first

444
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: so I would assume he's out, right, would you agree?

445
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I have him progected out. I never had

446
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: him progected in.

447
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, but I've seen some crazy concussion stuff

448
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: in the playoffs or non concussion stuff chalas. Then I

449
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 3: think losing Christian Gonzalez would be worse than losing Nico

450
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 3: because but I think in Christian Ganzalez is gonna play.

451
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 3: And the reason I say that is that the Patriots

452
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 3: have no depth at corner and Christian Goanzalez is really

453
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 3: good and allows them to be really flexible. Nico Collins

454
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 3: is also really good, but the Texans do have They

455
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 3: did build some wide receiver depth when he was out

456
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: this year, so like if both were out, I think

457
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 3: it would be advantage Texans as far as really yeah.

458
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: I disagree, only because number like.

459
00:23:59,520 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 3: Christian.

460
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: Now Christian, that's Christian Kirks, that's like the best game

461
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: of his wife. Like Christian Kirk has gone target with

462
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: in multiple games this year that he's played with.

463
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 3: I'm just saying they have other options. Like last year,

464
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: like you know, last year when they lost Nico and

465
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 3: and uh what's his name? They uh, my guy.

466
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: What Mixon?

467
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 3: No, I can't believe. I can't think of his name.

468
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 1: Oh MATCHI no, uh oh.

469
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: They had no other options. But this year, like when

470
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 3: they lost Nico, like they're you know, they they had

471
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 3: some of their other young you know, Higgins and and Hutchinson.

472
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: Without Nico taking coverage against the l No.

473
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 3: I'm saying when when Nico, when Nico was out for

474
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: like and they had even Davis Mills like they their

475
00:24:53,840 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: offense looked their offense didn't look like completely And they

476
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 3: have more wide receiver depth now, is what I'm saying.

477
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 3: And the Patriots like they don't have corner depth like

478
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 3: they're Alex Austin's on.

479
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: Don't they have like that who's that guy that worries? Yeah? Yeah,

480
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: Well he's been I mean he's been fine. He hasn't

481
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: been terrible.

482
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: I mean he's played like forty snaps. They drop off

483
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 3: from Christian Gonzalez it was like all pro caliber to

484
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: Charles Woods is monumental. So the only thing, I yeah,

485
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 3: the only thing I worry about is like if Gonzalez

486
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 3: isn't out there, although I think he's gonna play, do

487
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 3: the Patriots, you know, dedicate less or fewer resources to

488
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: the run and are they more generic on their coverages.

489
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: I do think I think they'll play more zone.

490
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 2: I think they'll play more zone if but I do

491
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 2: think those they've been they've been a run stopping team

492
00:25:57,960 --> 00:25:59,239
Speaker 2: all year, and I think they're gonna kind of look

493
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 2: at that is like okay, even last week, like what

494
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 2: was the key to the Texas offense?

495
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 1: It wasn't the past game.

496
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: So I think there's gonna be kind of a Bose

497
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 2: eye on marks, like okay, we'll let c. J.

498
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: Stroud drop back again like Rabel has played.

499
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:16,959
Speaker 2: I think he was still in Tennessee one of those

500
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: years now, yeah right, yeah, two years ago. So it's

501
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 2: like I just think like they saw what happened like

502
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 2: that Texans pass game.

503
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: It's a similar The good thing for the Patriots, it's

504
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 3: a similar game plan and scout like it just approached

505
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 3: to last week and like at his peak, Stroud isn't

506
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 3: as good as Herbert. The receivers without Collins aren't as

507
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 3: good as the Chargers receivers. Stroud under pressure has been

508
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: really poor and he has not been great when he's

509
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 3: been blitzed. So it could be a similar game plan

510
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 3: and approach. But yeah, definitely worth keeping an eye on.

511
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: I think that Zal is gonna play Nico is not, which.

512
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 2: Is yeah, that's I mean, it's major, Yeah, I just

513
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: have more I still think the Patriots secondary is pretty

514
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 2: pretty good without Gonzales. It's not it's obviously different with

515
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: him in the lineup, you know, play more man. But

516
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 2: I still think that like not having a Nico for

517
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 2: the Texas is the bigger watch just because that like

518
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: he opens it up for those like those like, yes,

519
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: their receivers, you know, expensive draft picks, but like Noel

520
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 2: hasn't even been playing, So that tells you all you

521
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: need to know about what you know him. And then Higgins,

522
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 2: bigger guy, you know, kind of like a Nico Hutchinson,

523
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: like he's he's just like a jag.

524
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 1: And and then.

525
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: And Christian Kirk had this is like his had that

526
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 2: was coming up the best game of his life. So

527
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: if there's ever a time, like you can't really go

528
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: back to that well to twice in a row. So

529
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: then you're left with you know, Dalton Schultz, who you

530
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 2: hate to like put out there because the dude doesn't block.

531
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: So it's like the Texas. I think the Texans are

532
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: going to be in trouble.

533
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: It's like and the script writers have been kind of

534
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 2: on point with the like the narratives. It's like, okay,

535
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 2: Packers like everyone, like guys get injured and they choke,

536
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 2: Awa Weed Bears come back, Herbert playoff, vomit game and

537
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 2: so now and Josh Allen inevitable. So now this week,

538
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: what it's time for the Texans annual you know, division

539
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 2: around exit. I don't know how it's gonna happen, but

540
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: it's gonna happen.

541
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 3: Question on this game tight ends for the Texans. I

542
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: would assume if without Nico Collins, they're gonna have to

543
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: do something. You know, that's how you have to attack

544
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 3: the Patriots in coverage? Do you like Schultz overs?

545
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do.

546
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 2: I'm meet and Kerner are like laughing about this yesterday

547
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: because like I had like Schultz at like fifty yards

548
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: he was like right there with Loveland. Loveland has jumped

549
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,959
Speaker 2: ahead in my fantasy projections, but like, yeah, I have

550
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 2: I have Shultz at like fifty yards, he's at forty one.

551
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: I hate betting overs like just like that, just because

552
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: like it's I don't know, just feels dirty after betting

553
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: unders all year. But I'm probably gonna be on his

554
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 2: his overs because you know, he was quiet last game

555
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 2: and I like in the well the division worl ast

556
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: year right against the Chiefs, you know, he was the

557
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 2: guy that they they were looking to, and I think

558
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: that's where what they're gonna have to do because I

559
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: still think the Patriots on the outside, I mean you

560
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: still got Davis uh and Jones, Like I mean, what

561
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: would happen Jones would kick out or would they just

562
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: go with the well who the other?

563
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: Who's that guy? What's his name? Woods? Would they just

564
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: go Woods on the outside?

565
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: I think?

566
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: So okay, Yeah, but either way, I mean still solid corner.

567
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: It's not like a bad corner group all things considered,

568
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 2: the safety is still good. So yeah, I think Schultz

569
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 2: would be the guy that you would that you would

570
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: look to in a spot like this, and he's been

571
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: you know, targets per route he's been like the guy

572
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: for them after Nico, he's been above twenty percent. I

573
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 2: think Marx. That's another thing about Marx. I like the

574
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: rushing under he he he is juice. So he's gonna

575
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: be on the field. Like I don't expect them to

576
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: like give Chubb a ton of work if if if

577
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 2: the game's a doubt, but uh, they could use him

578
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: in the pass game instead of like as an extension

579
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: of the run game.

580
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's how I see. I see a big

581
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: shots game.

582
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,239
Speaker 2: I think the receivers could struggle a little more than

583
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: expected because, uh, you know, without an Eco taking the

584
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 2: top walls. I just think it's gonna be harder for

585
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: like those bigger body guys and like Christian Kirk to

586
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: do it like again, you know, with like more eyes

587
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: on him. So yeah, I think Shokes a good bet. Stover,

588
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: who knows. I mean, they sometimes they like to get him.

589
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: He's somebody's got a block, right, Like somebody if they

590
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 2: want to get marks in the route and cholts in

591
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: the cholts ain't blocking. Uh so Stover's on the field,

592
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: he'll probably block. So he'll probably like the Noah Gray

593
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 2: where it's like you think he could do something, but

594
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 2: he'll probably just do nothing. But I think Shultz Soaks

595
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: would be the guy for me anytime touchdown.

596
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I don't.

597
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: I could see I could see a very similar script

598
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 2: to last week, but Patriots don't score much, but Texans

599
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 2: might not even get in the end zone at all,

600
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 2: like another like sixteen to six game or something like that.

601
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 2: The Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and

602
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,800
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603
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605
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606
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607
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609
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610
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611
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Speaker 1: If your bet wins, the crown is yours all right.

612
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the third overall of the

613
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 3: Divisional round six pack, I'm going with the Buffalo Bills

614
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: under twenty three and a half. I also played the

615
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 3: full game under, which you'll touch on, but I'll take

616
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: the team total under on the Bills. I I think

617
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 3: this is why I like the the full game under.

618
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 3: I'll explain my thought process there this. The Bills offense

619
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:12,239
Speaker 3: is obviously beat up with They have three active healthy receivers. Now,

620
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 3: Curtis Samuel was activated off i R, so you'll have

621
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 3: him in there, but Kincaid is not fully healthy. Josh

622
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 3: Allen got banged up multiple instances, and now in a

623
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 3: short week heading to Denver against arrested defense that should

624
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 3: be close to full health outside of Brandon Jones. I

625
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 3: think greenlaw yeah, which will help you. Yeah. Run defense

626
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: will help significally because if you recall last year, the

627
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: Bill's won thirty one seven against the Broncos and they

628
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: just ran all over them. But if you were recall

629
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 3: that game, the Broncos were significantly short handed at linebacker

630
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 3: and then they had injuries like in the first quarter

631
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 3: at linebacker. They're much better there. You know, now you

632
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: have halfunga and I I think that they can hold

633
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 3: their own enough against the run, but it's not like

634
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 3: a Seattle run defense. I think the Bills will be

635
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 3: able to run some and I think that's what they're

636
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: going to have to lean on. And with the dearth

637
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: of wide receiver, I think they have to lean into

638
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 3: more two tight end, maybe even three tight end formations

639
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: and go heavy.

640
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: Here extra linemen, extra lineman on the roster to get.

641
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 3: But the Broncos are top three against twelve and thirteen personnel,

642
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: so they've been very good in that aspect. They're also

643
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: very good even though they play a ton of man

644
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 3: against scrambling quarterbacks, and they've played a bunch and they're

645
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 3: gonna play a ton of man. And the Bills offense

646
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 3: has been significantly worse against man coverage this year. And

647
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: that's not a Josh Allen thing. That's a their receivers

648
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 3: can't get separation thing. And with the Broncos blitzing and

649
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 3: being able to get pressure, and if you recall the

650
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 3: games where the Bills struggle the most this year see

651
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 3: huston Atlanta, is when other teams have good corners and

652
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 3: bring the blitz and bring and door are able to

653
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: get pressure. I think that will play out here as well.

654
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: On the other side of the ball. By the way,

655
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: Ed Oliver could be back for Buffalo which is another

656
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: boost to this under in total. But what do the

657
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 3: Bills do under Sean McDermott. They're going to play a

658
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: lot of too high. They're going to try to take

659
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 3: away the explosive play. They're going to disguise their coverage

660
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 3: as well, and they can still generate a good bit

661
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: of pressure. Their run defense still isn't any good. So

662
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 3: what do I think the Broncos are going to do?

663
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: I think the Broncos are going to lead into the run,

664
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: and I think this game is just like field position.

665
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 3: The Bills only goal on this game should be to

666
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: get it to the fourth quarter close and then have

667
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 3: Allen with the ball. That's it. That should be your

668
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 3: goal here. But I think that the Broncos will run

669
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: it like there's gonna be this clock is going to

670
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 3: be speeding throughout. Both teams are going to rely on

671
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 3: the run, and with the Bills taking away the explosive play,

672
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 3: you then like bo Nicks is so inefficient on a

673
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: down to down basis. He will hit some explosives, but

674
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 3: if you take that away and against two high bo

675
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 3: Nicks has the lowest yards per attempt in the league.

676
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,720
Speaker 3: He just takes the short passes the little dinks and dunks,

677
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 3: and you force the Broncos to drive the field and

678
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 3: make Knicks be consistent on a down to down basis,

679
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 3: They're most likely not going to succeed in driving the

680
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 3: field and putting six on the board. So I think

681
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: you're just gonna have a lot of like four to

682
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: five at thirty yard drives that end in a punt,

683
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 3: maybe some six seven minute drives that end in field goals.

684
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: And this game is like end twenty to seventeen, So

685
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 3: I like the full game under and I'll go bills

686
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 3: under twenty three and a half. I think it's a

687
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 3: really tough matchup. I am curious to see, like what

688
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: they do with certain because like he is kind of wasted.

689
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:33,479
Speaker 3: I know there's like a lot of people are joking

690
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 3: about that, but like you could just put him at

691
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 3: whoever you put him out on is erased and you

692
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 3: just don't even have to worry about that side of

693
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: the field. But like, do you use him someone like

694
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 3: Kinkaid but Kincaid's not fully healthy.

695
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: You don't play enough to even like game plan for that.

696
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jo, But I'm saying that they go if they

697
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 3: if they decide to go, like twelve thirteen for majority

698
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: of the game, what do they do?

699
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 2: I put him on the X receiver just like because

700
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: I'm assuming that's what they'll do, but because like, so

701
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: here's my thing about uh, and and we'll talk about

702
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: this too. So I'm so I'll be on the full

703
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 2: game under as my official six pack pick, but I'm

704
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 2: going with it for my third. But I agree with

705
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: all what you're saying, but I'll just talk about and

706
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 2: I know you're going to talk about this guy, so

707
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 2: I'll just we could just kind of just knock all

708
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 2: this stuff out and then i'll give.

709
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 3: My Uh, you can give your last two. I'll for

710
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 3: my third and final pick and the fourth overall of

711
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 3: the division on six times, I'm going with Brandon Cooks

712
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 3: under two and a half receptions. Yes, he he's cooked

713
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 3: against man coverage. Uh, that's he just can't get any separation.

714
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 3: He's there to be a guy who will go down

715
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 3: the field. Maybe Alan will connect on a deep shot

716
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 3: or two against him. But this is a much tougher

717
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 3: task than Jacksonville right where he ended with three catches.

718
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 3: The Broncos secondary is much better. They also play They're

719
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 3: a man heavy defense, not a zone heavy defense. They

720
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 3: also are much better at generating pressure than the Jaguars,

721
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 3: so Allen isn't going to have as much time. And

722
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 3: like I said, I think both teams are going to

723
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 3: lean into the run. There's going to be fewer opportunities

724
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 3: for that to occur. So yeah, it's just tough for

725
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 3: me to see Cook's getting much play. I think the

726
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 3: Bill's passing attack has to be you know, it's lean

727
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 3: on the run, lean on Allen's legs, lean on Cook

728
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 3: not only running the ball, but out of the backfield,

729
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 3: and then your tight ends. And you know the other

730
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 3: thing about the Bills team total under is you check

731
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 3: here is probably their most reliable wide receiver. Weapon lines

732
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: up in the slot a lot. Well. McMillan is one

733
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: of the better slot corners, and I think matches up

734
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 3: well body and skill set in the Broncos. They get

735
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 3: there's a lot of targets in the slot because you

736
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 3: don't want to throw this down. But they allow the

737
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 3: third lowest completion percentage in the slot in the NFL

738
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: this year, So I think it's a tough matchup for

739
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 3: the Bills. Do I want to bet the Broncos? No,

740
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 3: I don't trust Bo Nicks and it might be a

741
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: struggle for their offense, and if it's close late, I'd

742
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: much rather have Allen. But I do think that the

743
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 3: Broncos defense will hold the Bills offense and check for

744
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 3: most of the game, and in order for the Bills

745
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 3: to win this game, it's going to be like they're

746
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 3: down seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen, late Allen has the ball,

747
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,240
Speaker 3: drives for a touchdown, they win like twenty one to seventeen.

748
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 3: But I think this is a really tough matchup for

749
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 3: the Bills offense, which is really banged up. But Cooks

750
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 3: just it's gonna be a lot of man coverage. I

751
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 3: can't see him getting any separation, and he'll get a

752
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: couple of maybe targets deep, but that's about it.

753
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: Yep.

754
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: So this is gonna be like I said, this will

755
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 2: be my third official pick for the six pack. Under

756
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 2: full game forty six and a half still out there,

757
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 2: find at forty five and a half as well, I

758
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 2: don't see many points being scored.

759
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 1: So a couple of things on Cooks.

760
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 2: The reason why I think Sir Tan does in fact

761
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 2: just stay outside and take away who they put out

762
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 2: there from private Cooks is because.

763
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 1: Cooks had one hundred yards against Philly.

764
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 2: Now that is a more man heavy defense, but he

765
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: didn't do anything on Mitchell, their top corner who you

766
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: would like in this Certan. You know, he caught one

767
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 2: on he caught one deep against his own and then

768
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: he caught he did catch a couple on Cooper de Gene,

769
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 2: which is you know, that's you gotta give them credit

770
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: for that. So I don't think the Broncos are gonna

771
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: like take Cooks maybe as lightly as you know, we

772
00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: or just the general public might look at Brandon Cooks

773
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: guy coming over mid season.

774
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 1: So I do.

775
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 2: I think that Stertaan will be out there and his

776
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: job will be stop Cooks, who fifty eight yards against

777
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 2: Jacksonville on three catches, four for one on one against Philly.

778
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 2: Those are the last two games. Cooks has been a

779
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: significant part of their passing offense. You take that out.

780
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 2: Shakir not great against man coverage. He had twelve for

781
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: eighty two against his own heavy Jags defense.

782
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 1: That could go down.

783
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 2: And then you look at and this is one of

784
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 2: the reason why I like the under You look at

785
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: the Bills, Okay, yards per route run against man coverage

786
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 2: this year. Bronco's one of the heaviest man defense at

787
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: wide receiver. Their top receiver in yards per route against

788
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: man coverage this year Elijah More Guess what he's on

789
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 2: the Broncos. Joshua Palmer injured reserve, Tyrell Shavers injured reserve.

790
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 1: Koyo Shakir is fourth.

791
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: I mentioned his numbers take a big dive against man

792
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 2: coverage compared his own. And then it's Keevon Coleman healthy

793
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 2: scratch most of the year. Then it's Curtis Samuel activated,

794
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 2: might not even play because they're super conservative with these

795
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 2: things gave Davis.

796
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 3: I are.

797
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 2: Then Brandon Cooks, Like I didn't like eight receivers before

798
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: we even got to Brandon Cooks.

799
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: Uh.

800
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 2: And then your top guy overall in yards per route

801
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 2: versus man coverage has run like two routes, and that's

802
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: Reggie gilliam in your full back. Your your next best

803
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: guy is Dalton Kakaid, who's in a precautionary boot and

804
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 2: hasn't been like off the injury report since like what

805
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 2: the first half of the year. So yeah, it's gonna

806
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 2: be problematic. I I I know, like the NFL scriptwriters

807
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 2: are probably gonna figure out a way for the Bills here.

808
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 2: But this the Broncos should win this game. I mean,

809
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 2: if we're just objectively speaking, the Broncos should win this game.

810
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: The Bills defense.

811
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and but but the reason I like the under

812
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 2: you do have the Bills that will in this kind

813
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 2: of spot. You know, it's almost like you gotta you

814
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 2: don't want to get into a shootout here. So yeah,

815
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 2: I think you got you into that. They have been

816
00:42:58,040 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 2: playing a little bit more, mixing up the coverage little.

817
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: I think they go heavy zone, try to women explosives,

818
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: play two higats what you do against Bo Knicks, who

819
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 2: has been less efficient against zone coverages all year, and

820
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: he started to take you know, the he's gotten like

821
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: it's not like Jalen Hurts where they completely go in

822
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 2: the tank, but he's he's just taking with the defense

823
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 2: gives them a little bit more so the explosives, the scrambles,

824
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: those tend to come more against man coverage type of defenses.

825
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 1: So I think Buffalo. Buffalo always seems to have.

826
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: A good game plan on defense, even when they're you know,

827
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: their defense isn't great or guys are hurt.

828
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, it's and even Broncos could be a

829
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 3: little tight.

830
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 2: And if you just look historically, Sawn Peyton, you know,

831
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 2: has had those high powered Saints offenses, and if you

832
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 2: look at like they're they've gotten a lot of buys,

833
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,479
Speaker 2: and just in general, if you look at like they're

834
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 2: opening their first playoff game each postseason, it tends to

835
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 2: be a lot lower scoring even when the Saints were

836
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 2: in indoors than you would expect.

837
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of those games are like ten to

838
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 3: nothing at the half and half.

839
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: You know why that is because Sean Payton has like

840
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: a sick affliction, Like he's just a football sicko, and

841
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 2: he likes to He's one of the few like that

842
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: still likes to. You know, most teams like to go tempo,

843
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 2: keep keep the defensive stubbing.

844
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: Sean Payton likes to have like four.

845
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 2: Offensive skill players jog on and off between every single play,

846
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 2: like not even just like between early and late downs.

847
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 2: Like he'll go first down, but like Prentice Harvey, Bryant.

848
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 1: Mims and then second down.

849
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 2: It it'll be like Franklin McLoughlin, like he'd just be

850
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 2: a whole new unit. And it's like it's like a

851
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 2: lot of tight ends and fullbacks and guys that are

852
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:42,959
Speaker 2: not even fast to jog on and off the field

853
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 2: in the first place. So like, that's why these games

854
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: tend to slow downs in the playoffs, and.

855
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 3: The Bills are one of the slowest teams in the league.

856
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and they want to be slow I think

857
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: in this game. I don't think they want to get

858
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: into a shootout until, like you said, until absolutely necessary

859
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter.

860
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 3: Then Okay, that's what they've done all year. That's why

861
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 3: they've been so bad in first half and that's why

862
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:02,479
Speaker 3: their offense is so good and second half.

863
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 2: And I can't believe again, you didn't mention special teams.

864
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 2: Bill's kicker has been on the injury report.

865
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, well last week I mentioned that, and the

866
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 3: All Pro kicker missed.

867
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 2: The Yeah sure, he's freaking what has missed way too

868
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 2: many kicks for like the leg he has. But I digress.

869
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 2: Bill's still shake your kicker. You are in the mile high.

870
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:29,839
Speaker 2: But that could actually play into the under because on

871
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,720
Speaker 2: both sides, I think you're gonna feel like your defense

872
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: can win you the game until your bill's in like

873
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 2: late late, so you might might go for some of

874
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 2: those long kicks now, it could result in short short

875
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: fields if you missed, but Craterer might have a little

876
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: more range, Bills might might not go for as many

877
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 2: fourth downs. And then you know, John Payton's still kind

878
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 2: of a little bit old school, so h he might

879
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 2: feel like his defense he can win on his strength

880
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 2: of his defense. Doesn't want to put bot Nicks in

881
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: a bad situation after that blowout last year. So yeah,

882
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 2: like the under in this game, I love your Cook's bet,

883
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 2: so that that's that's Those are my thoughts on h

884
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 2: on this game. But yeah, I think stan will be

885
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 2: will raise somebody, And I really don't know how the

886
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 2: Bills get a ton of passing production like I want to.

887
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: I almost want to go Josh Allen passing unders, but

888
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 2: I expect the Broncos to win this game. So you know,

889
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 2: it's always risky betting, like losing trailing quarterbacks passing yard

890
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 2: of dunders. But I obviously other Bills get a ton

891
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 2: of yardage here. Ty Johnson got banged up trying to

892
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 2: chase those incentives in Week eighteen.

893
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 1: Remember he was the guy who made an express.

894
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, he could have been big here with all their

895
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 3: receiver out of the backfield, it'd have.

896
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 2: Been big last week too, but yeah, yeah, he's like

897
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 2: the third receiver exactly. So like the Bills, Like if

898
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 2: you look at their numbers against man coverage, which I

899
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 2: think that Bronx now that could we too. You know,

900
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 2: you'll get some opportunities. I'm sure there'll be like a

901
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 2: couple of shot plays. It'll be like an old school

902
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 2: NFL game. You have like Sean Payton on one side,

903
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 2: German on the other. Like you probably builded some shot

904
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 2: plays if you're Buffalo, just because you will get man coverage.

905
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 1: But yeah, the Broncos defense is strong all over.

906
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 2: They've been said difficantly better with Greenlaw against the run

907
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: if he's in there. And then even their numbers when

908
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 2: you just look at them fully healthy, you know, because

909
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 2: I think Singleton missed the game, They're safety missed a

910
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 2: couple of games, but with everyone healthy, they've been just

911
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 2: lights out a lot better than like a lot of

912
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: people are like, oh, what's going on with their defense?

913
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 1: Like mid season had like.

914
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 2: A little swoon, but a lot of guys kind of

915
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 2: missed games in the middle of the year, Like so

916
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 2: now everyone's healthy coming up to buy and then they

917
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 2: also lost their center a.

918
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: Couple of weeks ago the Broncos was Wattenberg.

919
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,479
Speaker 2: I think it was they They haven't been their run

920
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 2: yards before contact have not been as strung in their

921
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 2: and their sack rate and their pressure rate has has

922
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 2: gone up, and their yards are before contact have gone

923
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 2: down since he's been out, So especially if at Oliver's.

924
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 1: Back, that is another advantage to the under.

925
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the under for Bills Broncos, like.

926
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 3: I think that they're going to lean into the run.

927
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's not a terribly efficient rushing offense.

928
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: Yeah it could be a posed, but yeah, it's not

929
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 2: not terribly first like they're not.

930
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 3: It's not like the scariest rushing offense that you're gonna face.

931
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 3: All right, where are you going for you last pick?

932
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 2: Oh wait, I want one one before we go on,

933
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 2: because you know, we always have to talk like thirty

934
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 2: minutes on the Bills. Carl Treffer's playoff unders eleven and

935
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 2: four seventy three percent. According to our action webs data,

936
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 2: he will be the reft four Broncos Bills, but yeah,

937
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: for my second technically, so it'll be my second and

938
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 2: fourth overall because again the Bills Broncosonda will be my third.

939
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 2: So for my second pick, the fourth overall of the

940
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:36,240
Speaker 2: divisional round six pack, I'm going with the San Francisco

941
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:40,359
Speaker 2: forty nine ers team total under eighteen and a half.

942
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 2: Seventeen and a half does it's not really a key number,

943
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: so I'm fine with that. But I think, as much

944
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 2: as I hate to say, because I do have a

945
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: super Bowl ticket on the Niners, I think their luck

946
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 2: may come to an end here, and if they win

947
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 2: this game, I think they're gonna have to do it

948
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 2: by It's gonna have to be like a game where

949
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: both teams score under twenty. Don't hate the full game under,

950
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 2: but I can see the Seahawks getting it together on

951
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 2: offense here. Niners teams total under two games against Seattle,

952
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 2: they've scored.

953
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 1: Twenty points combined. It has not been pretty.

954
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 2: Now you have Kittle out of the lineup, that hurts

955
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 2: your pass game, that hurts your run game, You're gonna

956
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 2: ask use Check to do More's still a fullback and

957
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 2: an old one at that, so it's like, yes, it's

958
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 2: it's all great when he's catching four balls, but like,

959
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 2: that's not ideal offense. McCaffrey, he's done nothing on the

960
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:42,359
Speaker 2: ground in almost every game this year. I mean it's

961
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 2: been it's been a lot through the air. Last week

962
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 2: we had a Jennings touchdown pass and you had you

963
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 2: had a great scripted opener. You got the DeMarcus Robins.

964
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:57,919
Speaker 2: Just the DeMarcus Robinson drive, we'll call it. That's none

965
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 2: of that's sustainable. So oh, where what's the Niners avenue

966
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 2: to points here? And they're already a slow team they

967
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:10,359
Speaker 2: probably want to lean back. And oh and by the way,

968
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 2: Trent Williams not healthy. He said it himself, gave up

969
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 2: six pressures move it was last week. That's he's not healthy.

970
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 2: He's just gutting it out. So you got an unhealthy

971
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: Trent Williams. You have a run game that can't run,

972
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:27,720
Speaker 2: and you have no George Kittle. You might get Pierso back, okay,

973
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 2: but he hasn't been a difference maker in all but

974
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 2: you know one or two with two of his games. Really,

975
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 2: Jwan Jennings has been completely shut down as a receiver

976
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,520
Speaker 2: by the Seattle Seahawks because when their defense is healthy,

977
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 2: when they have Amnuori and everyone healthy, like they've just

978
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: been whites out and now they don't even have to

979
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: worry about Kittle, which is big because now they can

980
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 2: really do some things as far as you know, getting

981
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 2: the matchups they want, dictating what they want to do,

982
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 2: kind of dictating terms to San Francisco. So I just

983
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 2: don't see how San Francisco scores Jennings in the two games.

984
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 2: And jen has been a guy for Party that has

985
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: really stepped it up and like mitigated, you know, some

986
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: of the injuries to Pierceau and killed all at times.

987
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 2: Geennings h four targets four catches on six targets for

988
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: thirty five yards in the Week eighteen game, two catches

989
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 2: for sixteen yards on five targets in the Week one game,

990
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 2: So that's a combined six catches on eleven targets for

991
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 2: just fifty one yards. He's averaging like essentially Christian McCaffery

992
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 2: yards per Carrie as a receiver per target. No touchdowns

993
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 2: for Jennings receiving, So now you're really gonna need Pierso

994
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 2: if he's even back. Robinson's not gonna catch him. By

995
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 2: surprise again, Kendrick Bourne has been non existent. There's just

996
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: not many avenues here for the Niners to score points.

997
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 2: And I think Seattle has what they started to do

998
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 2: on offense themselves, which kind of you know, this game

999
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 2: might not get into like a shootout. Realm is that

1000
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 2: Seattle's been a little more conservative on offense, you know,

1001
00:51:57,640 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: Donald has you know.

1002
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:00,720
Speaker 1: They haven't been calling his any shots.

1003
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 2: They've kind of just been okay, Donald, like just kind

1004
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:08,320
Speaker 2: of yeah exactly. And but they're also they also realized

1005
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: how good their defense is at full strength. I think,

1006
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: you know, because their coaches McDonald and by the way,

1007
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 2: this is Kyle Shanahan one of the best to do it.

1008
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 2: McDonald in these two games again, sixteen combined twenty combined

1009
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:24,399
Speaker 2: points for this Niners.

1010
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 1: Offense like that. So it's like.

1011
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 3: McDonald when the game he's lost the MVP too.

1012
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh again when it was with Baltimore in through Christmas,

1013
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. So it's yes, it's always hard to beat

1014
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 2: a team twice in what three weeks.

1015
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 1: Yes, you know, the Seahawks.

1016
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 2: Are kind of an upstart, but I think the defense

1017
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 2: is for real, if when I go back and kind

1018
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,439
Speaker 2: of adjust them for like guys being in and out,

1019
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 2: it's like with everybody in.

1020
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 1: I mean, they they've they've just given up nothing.

1021
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 2: They the one team that was able to do some

1022
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 2: things off of them in this and half of the

1023
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 2: year really was the was the Rams and the Rams

1024
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: collapse down the stretch in that game. And outside of that,

1025
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 2: it's like teams have struggled to get even two hundred

1026
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 2: yards of offense against Seattle, I mean the not and

1027
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,919
Speaker 2: then the Seahawks are gonna be able to run the ball?

1028
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 2: I think the Niners, you know, they don't like to

1029
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 2: stack the box. Maybe they'll be able to more aggressive

1030
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 2: he or try to force the issue, but I would

1031
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: think they would. I would think they would just try

1032
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 2: to play another well scoring game. But uh, Seattle dominated

1033
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 2: time in possession the last game, which now it would

1034
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:30,799
Speaker 2: the Niners are, you.

1035
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,439
Speaker 1: Know, you're gonna try to run the ball.

1036
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 2: You're not gonna be as explosive, You're probably not gonna

1037
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 2: get as much possession. I just don't see how the

1038
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 2: Niners get there unless it's you know, special teams. And

1039
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,919
Speaker 2: I think that the Seahawks special teams is probably better

1040
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 2: than the Niners. So yeah, don't don't see it for

1041
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 2: the Niners scoring the ball, it's a low it's a

1042
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 2: low number for the Niners. But the Seahawks have held

1043
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,399
Speaker 2: over half like half their opponents under this number, and

1044
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 2: the Niners again twenty points in two games. You can

1045
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 2: give them another touchdown, that'd still be ten and a

1046
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 2: half average. If you say, okay, that McCaffrey babble interception,

1047
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 2: say they score on that. Still you're talking about under

1048
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: fourteen points a game in these two matchups. Give me

1049
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 2: the Niners team total under McCaffrey hasn't broken what runs

1050
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,720
Speaker 2: longer than like, we haven't even gotten the double digits.

1051
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:19,759
Speaker 2: Talk about a long carry fade hasn't gotten to double

1052
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 2: digits in a lot of these recent games. So yeah,

1053
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 2: the Niners team total under I just don't see how

1054
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 2: they score. Maybe they pull off a miracle and win

1055
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 2: if Donald pukes, But I don't really know what to

1056
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 2: expect from the CPS offense as much. But I don't

1057
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 2: I don't think the Niners are gonna have it here.

1058
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm this this game. I'm kind of perplexed on

1059
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 3: So that. By the way, the coaching in the especially

1060
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 3: in the NFC, for the coaching matchups, this is what

1061
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 3: usually determines these games, and the coaching, especially in the NFC,

1062
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:57,280
Speaker 3: like Ben Johnson versus McVeigh and Shanahan versus McDonald just awesome.

1063
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 3: So Ken Shanahan, who said he was like they were

1064
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 3: just weren't prepared for Seattle, threw out some different looks

1065
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 3: at them that they weren't prepared for. Will Ken, what

1066
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 3: can Shanahan cook up? He finally beat the fanjo defense.

1067
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 3: He found some weaknesses right on the left side of

1068
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 3: the field. They hit some explosives. They'd use the trick

1069
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 3: play like they're gonna need to do that stuff. They

1070
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 3: will get nothing on the ground in this game. Seattle's

1071
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: run defense is historically dominant, but in Week one, you

1072
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,359
Speaker 3: know they did, they did move the ball. Kittle got

1073
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 3: hurt in that game. They had Williams. They didn't have

1074
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 3: Williams in the finale. But as you mentioned, Williams isn't

1075
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 3: at one hundred percent. But in that Week one game,

1076
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 3: Piersall went nuts like it would be huge to have

1077
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 3: him as a deep threat. But I don't know what

1078
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 3: you can if you can really expect them to back

1079
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 3: and I don't know if you can expect them to

1080
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 3: be at one hundred percent.

1081
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 2: Do you want party like hanging in the pocket and

1082
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 2: trying to go deep again, Like, well, I guess.

1083
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:49,279
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to do, and you're just gonna have

1084
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 3: to hope that you can hit some but there's probably

1085
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 3: gonna be some pretty mistakes. Where are those interceptions on

1086
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 3: the field. But here's like, if Shanahan is able to

1087
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 3: cook up a brilliant game plan and put together a

1088
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 3: couple of touchdown drives, then I mean or even like

1089
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 3: ten points early, that will force Seattle, who should be

1090
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 3: able to run at will right and they should get crossback.

1091
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:18,399
Speaker 3: Arroyo might come back, which I think will could help

1092
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 3: the passing offense, and like stretching the middle of the

1093
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 3: field as more of a vertical threat. But does I'm

1094
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 3: curious what There's so many I gotta talk about this

1095
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 3: game forever, Like Sali basically just sat in too high,

1096
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 3: played like sixty seven percent of the snaps against the Eagles,

1097
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 3: prevent the explosives, make them drive down the field. Does

1098
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 3: he do that again, or does he like bring more

1099
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 3: guys in the box to stop the run and dare

1100
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 3: Darnold to throw.

1101
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:46,400
Speaker 2: They haven't done that all year though, That's the thing. I

1102
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 2: always think they should do more of that. But that's

1103
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:51,359
Speaker 2: just something sometimes you Yeah, you.

1104
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 3: Go a lot, you pull up curveball and the BIGGESTELEBTY,

1105
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 3: highest leverage games. I would assume they're gonna sit back

1106
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 3: a lot of the game, but how how often do

1107
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,839
Speaker 3: you come up to help them? Because the Seahawks got

1108
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 3: whatever they wanted in the run game. So because what

1109
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 3: will happen is if the forty nine Ers can't get

1110
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 3: anything going on offense, because if they can, Donald there's

1111
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 3: not gonna be pressured. There's gonna be opportunities for Seattle

1112
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: to move the ball and score. And they left a

1113
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: lot of points on the table in both meetings, Like

1114
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 3: the end of the first game, they got sacked, sack,

1115
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 3: fumble inside the ten, they turned it off, the run downs,

1116
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 3: they missed two field goals last last time out. The

1117
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 3: forty nine ers defense is bad and they don't get pressure.

1118
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 3: But if the forty nine ers offense has no solution,

1119
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 3: so you know they're not gonna be able to run it,

1120
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 3: they're gonna Berdie's gonna be under pressure. And if the

1121
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 3: forty nine ers get behind and they're not showing any

1122
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 3: life on offense, Seattle is going to kill the game.

1123
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 3: And they're gonna McDonald smartly is gonna say Donald is

1124
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 3: not losing this game. Right, They're not gonna throw it.

1125
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 3: They're not gonna take any risks. They're gonna run it.

1126
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 3: They're gonna try to go on like seven minute drives,

1127
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 3: play field position, and and then this total will have

1128
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 3: no chance. I'm talking same thing.

1129
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 1: The Niners are gonna do the same thing. The Niners

1130
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: will do early.

1131
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 2: So like that's I like the full game total as well,

1132
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 2: but I do see an lane where the Niners puke

1133
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 2: on offense because I.

1134
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 3: Just now I considered Seattle team total over.

1135
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:20,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, That's what I'm saying, Like that's the vary,

1136
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 2: which is why I'm going Niners team total wonder.

1137
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I considered Seattle team total over. My My worry though,

1138
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 3: is that if they're up thirteen to nothing, they have

1139
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 3: no incent to score two more touchdowns, Like they'll just

1140
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 3: they won't throw it all. They'll go they'll go so

1141
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 3: conservative and so slow and just say Donald, we're not

1142
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 3: gonna put the ball in harm's way. So fascinating game.

1143
00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 3: Can't wait to watch see what trud the ball because

1144
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:47,919
Speaker 3: they're gonna need like trick. They're gonna have to pull

1145
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 3: out a trick play again.

1146
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah again, Yeah, and two weeks in a row, especially

1147
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 2: because Jenny's has been their money guy with that like

1148
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 2: he did.

1149
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 1: In the Super Bowl.

1150
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:00,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean McCaffrey, I guess has done it right.

1151
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 1: He's thrown a couple of passes. It would probably be

1152
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: him this time.

1153
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:05,919
Speaker 2: I would I would think would throw a pass maybe

1154
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:07,920
Speaker 2: two Jennings or something or pearsall.

1155
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:09,560
Speaker 1: So I guess you could.

1156
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 2: You could, like if there's like a weird prop where

1157
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 2: you could get like some type of Caffrey passing or

1158
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,920
Speaker 2: you know, I think pretty unders, pretty touchdown unders or

1159
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: something like that might be smart because he might not

1160
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,479
Speaker 2: throw all the touchdown passes. But yeah, it's it's gonna

1161
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 2: be it's gonna be rough, especially because it's a third

1162
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: meeting against a divisional opponent that just specializes in defense.

1163
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 3: Yeah you mention especially Seattle is significantly better than San

1164
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 3: Francisco Seattle. Seattle is one of the best special teams

1165
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 3: units in the NFL. We saw the forty nine ers

1166
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 3: return units last week struggle. You don't want to be

1167
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 3: have bad field position against the Seahawks. So uh yeah,

1168
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 3: looking forward to that one, I'm assuming that we're not

1169
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 3: gonna try to throw it to McCaffrey twelve times.

1170
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I like his over receptions at five and

1171
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 2: a half six and a half. Little dice here, but yeah,

1172
00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:01,919
Speaker 2: I expect McCaffrey to get double digit target Jennings. David

1173
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 2: Seattle has just been so good against number one receivers

1174
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 2: by Dvoa, I believe there are number one in the league,

1175
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 2: and so like jenne It kind of has shown up

1176
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 2: in Jennings, which is a big You know, if you

1177
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 2: can shut down Jennings with a kittleless offense, which is

1178
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 2: easier to do as well, there's not many options. I

1179
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 2: Tongus might actually have be like a garbage time here.

1180
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:25,920
Speaker 2: I could see him like getting like eight catches for

1181
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:29,440
Speaker 2: like seventy yards or something, just like a couple of

1182
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 2: two minute drives.

1183
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we hit on every game.

1184
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 2: Let me just recap the six back just because guy

1185
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 2: out of order there so stuck. You're going rams team

1186
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 2: total over twenty six and a half, Bill's team total

1187
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:48,160
Speaker 2: under twenty three and a half, and Brandon Cooks under

1188
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 2: two and a half receptions. I'm going Woodie Marks under

1189
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 2: fifty eight and a half rushing yards, the forty nine

1190
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:00,440
Speaker 2: Ers team total under eighteen and a half, and the

1191
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 2: Bills Broncos under forty six and a half. You know,

1192
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:09,680
Speaker 2: even if those numbers go down, still like them. You know,

1193
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 2: forty five is not really a key number. So I mean,

1194
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:15,760
Speaker 2: as long as you're above forty four for bills, Broncos marks,

1195
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 2: I have closer fifty. I bet that down about fifty

1196
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: four and Niners team total. I mean, eighteen is not

1197
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 2: a key number. Seventeen is. So as long as it's

1198
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 2: above seventeen, fine with that. And for you, I assume

1199
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 2: it's the same like rams, would you go if it

1200
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 2: was if for some reason it got to twenty seven

1201
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 2: and a half, what would you do then?

1202
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 1: Would you fade it? Or would you still better.

1203
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 3: Cheap? If it's cheap the cheap twenty seven and a

1204
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 3: half a plus money, yeah, I would still play it,

1205
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:53,160
Speaker 3: but I prefer more expensive twenty six and a half.

1206
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 3: Cooks under two and a half good to like minus

1207
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 3: one to fifty. Would you agree with that?

1208
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:01,440
Speaker 1: I would go. I would go to any juice as

1209
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,680
Speaker 1: long as it's two and a half. It's perceptions are

1210
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 1: just a little different.

1211
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 2: It's like it's more like it's a more like Poisson

1212
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 2: type of distribution, where it's like it's it's more about

1213
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 2: the number for that one. So yeah, as long as

1214
01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: it's two and a half, I would, I would, I wouldn't.

1215
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:21,080
Speaker 3: And then Bill's, um, you want at least twenty three, right, Yeah,

1216
01:02:21,240 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 3: need at least twenty three? Find them more expensive twenty

1217
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 3: three and a half, all.

1218
01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 2: Right, So that's gonna do it for our divisional Round

1219
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:29,439
Speaker 2: six pack.

1220
01:02:29,640 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 1: If you want to tell some of these bets.

1221
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 2: Look for the quick slipwink in the podcast the video

1222
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 2: description orbit Actionnetwork dot Com slash Bet Now, and before

1223
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 2: we get to the rest of the pod and our

1224
01:02:41,560 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 2: touchdown parlay, uh, here's your weekly reminder to sign up

1225
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:48,479
Speaker 2: for Action Pro Only. Action Pro subscribers get real time

1226
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 2: notifications when Stucky, Brandon Anderson, Sehn Kerner, myself, any of

1227
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 2: our action experts track picks in the app.

1228
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:54,960
Speaker 1: There will be.

1229
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 2: Plenty of fun sweats this NFL postseason, so you want

1230
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,160
Speaker 2: to get on board right now. You can use low

1231
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 2: Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off an annual subscription.

1232
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:06,480
Speaker 2: Just go to Action Network dot Com slash bro and

1233
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 2: use Code Pod twenty. That's Pod two zero for twenty

1234
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:13,600
Speaker 2: dollars off. So no money line dog partway this week.

1235
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:16,360
Speaker 2: So great season for you Stuck. I think it was

1236
01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:19,680
Speaker 2: sixteen to three overall on the money line dogs, But

1237
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:24,520
Speaker 2: I mean I guess real quick, like who's who. I

1238
01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:28,160
Speaker 2: would probably go Denver. Denver is still an underdog right now.

1239
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 2: I think I think Denver is in a good spot.

1240
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 2: Don't feel great about Houston or San Francisco. Any thoughts

1241
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 2: on Bears could I mean vo Bears voodoo but kind

1242
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 2: of wean the Rams way.

1243
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:42,439
Speaker 1: I think they get it done, So yeah, it would happen.

1244
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:46,240
Speaker 3: I would just go Houston because low low total, still

1245
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:49,840
Speaker 3: unsure on the Patriots, and then that Houston defense could

1246
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:53,000
Speaker 3: just carry them to a win and dominate the line

1247
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 3: of scrimmage.

1248
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:57,440
Speaker 2: All right, So yeah, let's get into our anytime touchdown

1249
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,520
Speaker 2: partway for the Divisional Round, presented by.

1250
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 1: All Right Stuck. I mean, I guess this has been

1251
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:05,720
Speaker 1: my version of your.

1252
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 3: Weekend put two together ourse the double gut punches. Lawrence

1253
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 3: didn't get the get in get the fourth and two

1254
01:04:15,720 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 3: at the five, and that cost me the first half bet.

1255
01:04:20,960 --> 01:04:24,400
Speaker 3: And also if he gets it, prime opportunity from the

1256
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 3: score on that drive but didn't get there. For this week,

1257
01:04:30,520 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with Blake Korn plus two seventy.

1258
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 3: I think this is a little high and already talked

1259
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 3: about this and why. I think the Rams will have

1260
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 3: plenty of advantages in the running game. So it's called

1261
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 3: Blake Korn.

1262
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think him and Kirn there's value there.

1263
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: I think the Rams could go a little bit run

1264
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 2: heavier in this matchup, especially with Edwards off the field,

1265
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 2: Stafford doing with a with a finger, so like, yeah,

1266
01:04:58,080 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 2: exactly and the cold So yeah, I have this post

1267
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: are plus two hundred, and a guy I have under

1268
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:08,480
Speaker 2: plus two hundred that is still getting plus two hundred

1269
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 2: odds is the guy I'm gonna go with, and that's

1270
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 2: Colston love Wind.

1271
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:14,720
Speaker 1: But in Chicago Bears, he's just been unbelievable. Uh.

1272
01:05:14,760 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 2: And you know, the Bears tend to find themselves in

1273
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,919
Speaker 2: trailing game scripts, which tend to benefit the passing game.

1274
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 2: Loveland's just been the number one receiver now, so it's

1275
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 2: not even a matter of you know, at one point

1276
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:26,640
Speaker 2: in the year it was a matter of, okay, how

1277
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 2: much two tight end personnel as they run. Now it's

1278
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 2: just Lovelin's out there every snap, and it's just whether

1279
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 2: Comet is on a field or not.

1280
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: Uh. But love Loveland in this spot.

1281
01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 2: You know, zone have Rams play his own heavy defense,

1282
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 2: and we saw them, you know, struggle with kind of

1283
01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 2: interior receivers. Jalen Coker went off against them. So but

1284
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:49,080
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're gonna have to still deal with

1285
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:50,800
Speaker 2: I think Burden can have a good game too, But

1286
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:52,040
Speaker 2: in the red zone.

1287
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:54,120
Speaker 1: I think Lovelind is gonna be the guy.

1288
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 2: He's averaging over a half an expected touchdown per game. Uh,

1289
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 2: you know since that eruption against the Bengals, you know,

1290
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 2: mid season, So it's not just he's he's been scoring them,

1291
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 2: but some guys, you know, they get lucky or they're.

1292
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 1: Like he's he's been getting the opportunities.

1293
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 2: We saw him on that two point conversion where they

1294
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:13,880
Speaker 2: had a nice nifty play drawn up, got him matched

1295
01:06:13,960 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 2: up on a on a linebacker. Uh so yeah, love

1296
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 2: Loveland in this spot against the Rams.

1297
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 1: You can parlay quorum with Loveland.

1298
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 2: That would be the same game parway, and you get

1299
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:29,240
Speaker 2: ten to one odds on DraftKings. So hopefully we get

1300
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:31,800
Speaker 2: we can bring one home. At the same time, you

1301
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 2: had Tremble in Week eighteen. That was a nice hit

1302
01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:39,360
Speaker 2: and then can cave from me last week so let's

1303
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 2: try to get it together here. That's gonna be our

1304
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 2: anytime touchdown Parway host in Lovelin, Lake, Korum, final game

1305
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 2: of the weekend presented by Draft Kings ten to one.

1306
01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:54,600
Speaker 2: That is a rap for us any any final thoughts

1307
01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 2: on the divisional round before we get out there.

1308
01:06:56,600 --> 01:07:01,760
Speaker 3: Stuck wide open. So h but we're this is the

1309
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 3: year of maybe it's Is it just Josh Allen? Is

1310
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 3: the new is the Mahomes this year? Or it's just

1311
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 3: like it doesn't matter because like I wouldn't normally want

1312
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 3: to bet the Broncos here, but I can't bet against

1313
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 3: Josh Allen, which is why I'm not betting either side.

1314
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:21,919
Speaker 3: But we're gonna find out. Or is this the year

1315
01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 3: of the defenses? Are we headed toward a potential you know,

1316
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:36,160
Speaker 3: Houston or Denver versus Seattle super Bowl which might not

1317
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 3: be the most entertaining people that love points and offense.

1318
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's still very wide open looking forward to

1319
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 3: all the games there is. There are only seven games,

1320
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 3: seven NFL games left. Enjoy every second of them because

1321
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:55,919
Speaker 3: before you know, it'll be June and you'll be dying

1322
01:07:55,960 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 3: for a bad Thursday night game. So let's have a weekend.

1323
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:03,600
Speaker 1: Actually I do have. I do have one quick question

1324
01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:04,000
Speaker 1: for you.

1325
01:08:04,080 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 2: So before the year I had have I got super

1326
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:17,040
Speaker 2: tickets on Niners, Rams bills and then Packers, Chiefs and

1327
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:21,760
Speaker 2: Ravens are eliminated? Would you hedge any type of way

1328
01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:25,680
Speaker 2: with you know, so I'm got the teams I'm not

1329
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 2: exposed to right now, Seattle, the Bears A well, Seattle

1330
01:08:33,040 --> 01:08:34,840
Speaker 2: I think is the one that I'm because I have.

1331
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:37,360
Speaker 2: I have a Rams ticket and a Niners ticket, so

1332
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:39,600
Speaker 2: that I feel good. I feel decently about that. But like,

1333
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 2: would you I can, and it's easy to hedge on

1334
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 2: the Bears as underdogs, But what would you do as

1335
01:08:43,880 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 2: far as like Seattle just because they're the favorite? Any

1336
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 2: any type of approach you would take or just kind

1337
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:50,639
Speaker 2: of ride it out?

1338
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 3: Uh? I maybe take some Seattle, But if it's not

1339
01:08:55,439 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 3: like life changing money, that what it all depends on. Like,

1340
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:01,559
Speaker 3: and if you actually like Seattle, can you see Sam

1341
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,920
Speaker 3: darnoald winning in the Super Bowl this year?

1342
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:05,080
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1343
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:07,960
Speaker 3: So if you kind of like it, then that's the

1344
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:10,000
Speaker 3: one an other team that I would want exposure on.

1345
01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:12,400
Speaker 3: So I would maybe play a little bit on Seattle.

1346
01:09:12,840 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, that's what I was thinking, because you know,

1347
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:16,760
Speaker 2: I could with the Bears, it's as simple as you

1348
01:09:16,800 --> 01:09:18,559
Speaker 2: can kind of just had you on their money line.

1349
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:21,800
Speaker 2: But Seattle being the big favorite, it's a little got

1350
01:09:21,800 --> 01:09:23,160
Speaker 2: to kind of just take their futures.

1351
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:23,960
Speaker 1: So it's a little different.

1352
01:09:24,760 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the interesting one thing I'll say

1353
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 2: before we get out of here is this is the

1354
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 2: coaching postseason. I mean, the weakest coach left in the

1355
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:37,160
Speaker 2: postseason is probably either Sean McDermott, who does nothing but

1356
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:41,280
Speaker 2: you know, win games and get the bills of the playoffs,

1357
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 2: and Jamika Ryans, who is one a postseason game in

1358
01:09:47,040 --> 01:09:49,120
Speaker 2: each of his first three years as a coach.

1359
01:09:49,240 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 3: But those are still really good defensive minds.

1360
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 2: Right, and those are the weak I'm no shade to

1361
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:57,280
Speaker 2: them to say those are two weakest coaches. So this

1362
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 2: is a and then another thing I thought was interesting

1363
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 2: last week. You look at like a lot of the

1364
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 2: expert predictions and just like you know, insiders of what

1365
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 2: they're saying, and like everyone's talking about run games last week,

1366
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 2: and I get it, you know, coming off that Eagles

1367
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 2: postseason the year before, and everyone's talking about run games

1368
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:15,719
Speaker 2: didn't really materialize like that. I mean you know, Jags

1369
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:19,639
Speaker 2: have the advantage in the run game, doesn't matter. Josh Allen,

1370
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 2: you know you have the the Bears, you know they

1371
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:25,760
Speaker 2: can run. Packers getting moved off the ball without Micah

1372
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 2: didn't matter.

1373
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 1: Packers.

1374
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 2: And then the Bears week run defense didn't matter. It's

1375
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:32,240
Speaker 2: just Packers thrown it all around. Josh Jacobs was a

1376
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:34,160
Speaker 2: kick returner by the end of the game. And then

1377
01:10:34,200 --> 01:10:36,040
Speaker 2: the Bears still come back with the pass the game.

1378
01:10:37,439 --> 01:10:40,960
Speaker 2: Rams you know, all they're running out of heavy didn't

1379
01:10:40,960 --> 01:10:44,240
Speaker 2: really materialize. Panthers, you know, Rams stopping the Panthers run

1380
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:46,840
Speaker 2: with Lake didn't matter. They just toasted them in the

1381
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:49,760
Speaker 2: pass game and with the quarterback runs. So like this

1382
01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:52,280
Speaker 2: week you might see I think the run game matter

1383
01:10:52,479 --> 01:10:55,960
Speaker 2: matter a little more because I think it's like Channayan

1384
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 2: has to run it, and then a lot of the team,

1385
01:10:58,040 --> 01:10:59,320
Speaker 2: I think a lot of other teams just want to

1386
01:10:59,400 --> 01:11:01,400
Speaker 2: run it. And then the Texans, if they could run

1387
01:11:01,439 --> 01:11:02,720
Speaker 2: it would be great for them, but they might not

1388
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:04,559
Speaker 2: be able to. There's a lot of really good run

1389
01:11:04,600 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 2: defenses this week, is what I'll say. So like the

1390
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:09,479
Speaker 2: run game, whether it's like teams failing to run or

1391
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 2: being able to. I think it can matter a lot

1392
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:13,679
Speaker 2: more than last we guess just how the playoffs tend

1393
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:17,200
Speaker 2: to tend to go, but looking forward to it and uh,

1394
01:11:17,600 --> 01:11:19,479
Speaker 2: it's been a pleasure all year. Stup will be back

1395
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 2: next week to cover the championship games and until then,

1396
01:11:25,920 --> 01:11:28,360
Speaker 2: if you want to tail the bets again, Action Network

1397
01:11:28,400 --> 01:11:31,240
Speaker 2: dot Com, slash bet now or go to at playbook

1398
01:11:31,240 --> 01:11:34,000
Speaker 2: on Twitter. It will build you bet slips. You can

1399
01:11:34,439 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 2: find Stuck on x at Stuckey two. Actress Raybaud, where

1400
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:39,200
Speaker 2: I fil the same hand was on the free award

1401
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:43,880
Speaker 2: winning Action Network Shop Tour sponsor DraftKings until the championship round.

1402
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:45,360
Speaker 1: Let's get this money, Let Go.

1403
01:12:01,000 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1404
01:12:05,560 --> 01:12:08,360
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1405
01:12:08,400 --> 01:12:11,479
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler