WEBVTT - June Jobs Report Surpasses Expectations

0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160
<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280
<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,

0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439
<v Speaker 1>and of course Carol that's part of a team of

0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.280
<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239
<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.960
<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Every time we approach Job's day,

0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:39.639
<v Speaker 1>I can speak for Carol and myself when we say

0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and think, we want to know what Chris Luke thinks

0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.240
<v Speaker 1>about all of this, no matter which way it goes.

0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:46.680
<v Speaker 1>He is a senior fellow at the University of Virginia

0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:51.200
<v Speaker 1>Miller Center. Of course, a former Deputary Deputy Secretary of Labor.

0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:53.200
<v Speaker 1>I get that. I sort of trip on that almost

0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:56.160
<v Speaker 1>every time. I'm sorry, Chris for me, former Deputy Secretary

0:00:56.200 --> 0:01:00.000
<v Speaker 1>of Labor under President Obama. He's on the phone with us. Now, Chris,

0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.680
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm doing good. Thank you for having me.

0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.160
<v Speaker 1>All right, well, it's good to have you back. Um.

0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:09.080
<v Speaker 1>So your initial reaction, like your gut reaction to this

0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.240
<v Speaker 1>and and maybe more important as you saw it, all

0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of filter through what do we need to take

0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:17.480
<v Speaker 1>away from this job's report, both monthly and UH and

0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:20.600
<v Speaker 1>then the weekly jobless claims. So there was a lot

0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:25.440
<v Speaker 1>of data today. Gut reaction was good, with a lot

0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.920
<v Speaker 1>of caveats. You know, we always tell people the monthly

0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.360
<v Speaker 1>jobs data is really kind of looking way back, and

0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.800
<v Speaker 1>in this case, it goes back really to the pay

0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:39.800
<v Speaker 1>period that began on June eighth. So in that second

0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:44.520
<v Speaker 1>week of June, the economy clearly was recovering. But when

0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.880
<v Speaker 1>you add that with the weekly jobs claims, you started

0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:51.680
<v Speaker 1>get kind of a mixed picture because we're continuing to

0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.160
<v Speaker 1>have again, if you add in not only the people

0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:58.360
<v Speaker 1>applying under the normal unemployment program, but the new pandemic

0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:01.800
<v Speaker 1>program for gig workers, it's about two million people applying

0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:06.320
<v Speaker 1>for unemployment every single week, new people applying, um and

0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:08.760
<v Speaker 1>you know total right now, but thirty one million people

0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.840
<v Speaker 1>on unemployment, which is not really going down. So if

0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:14.200
<v Speaker 1>you put all of this together, you get a sense

0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.840
<v Speaker 1>of an economy that was reopening. By the beginning of June.

0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.280
<v Speaker 1>Jobs were coming back, and that recovery may have slowed,

0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:25.600
<v Speaker 1>and we don't really know how much it is slowed.

0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:27.720
<v Speaker 1>And again, as we always say, we're still in the

0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:30.320
<v Speaker 1>middle of a public health crisis. And until you resolve that,

0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:32.760
<v Speaker 1>you really can't get a good sense about where that

0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:36.720
<v Speaker 1>the economy is going. We're still what about nineteen million

0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:41.240
<v Speaker 1>in terms of those who are on unemployment benefits that

0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:44.680
<v Speaker 1>are out of work. Yeah, I mean, if we simply

0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:47.000
<v Speaker 1>look at the number of people who apply the under

0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.400
<v Speaker 1>the traditional unemployment program, it was one point four million

0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:53.360
<v Speaker 1>this week, which is more than double the worst week

0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:56.519
<v Speaker 1>we ever had during the Great Recession. So the numbers

0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.720
<v Speaker 1>are still elevated. They've come down a lot, but we

0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.720
<v Speaker 1>all need to understand that just in the months of

0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:06.400
<v Speaker 1>March and April we lost about twenty two million jobs.

0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:10.280
<v Speaker 1>We've picked up about seven seven to eight millions. We've

0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.880
<v Speaker 1>picked back up again. Um, but these numbers, and we

0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:17.000
<v Speaker 1>always say jobs created, uh, and we probably this month

0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.520
<v Speaker 1>it's simply need to say jobs were stored to people

0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:21.880
<v Speaker 1>because you know, one of the quirky things about the

0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:25.120
<v Speaker 1>data as you see. You know, just in healthcare employment,

0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.960
<v Speaker 1>a hundred and ninety thousand UH dental jobs were created.

0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.040
<v Speaker 1>I suspect we didn't have a hundred ninety thousand new

0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.680
<v Speaker 1>dentists last months. I think because all dental assises were

0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:41.000
<v Speaker 1>closed they reopened. So again, this is positive with a

0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of caveats, right, I just look at my own world.

0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:44.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean I went and had a root canal, like like,

0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:47.040
<v Speaker 1>these are things that I had were not do you

0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:48.640
<v Speaker 1>know it's not I'm going to go back to my dentist.

0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:50.600
<v Speaker 1>So like, yeah, I get that it wasn't a brand

0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.840
<v Speaker 1>new dentist. It was not a brand new dentist. Yes, no, no, no, hey, Chris,

0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:57.960
<v Speaker 1>I feel like a more constructive conversation at this point.

0:03:58.040 --> 0:03:59.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, these numbers are going to be what these

0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.680
<v Speaker 1>numbers are. I mean, we have shut down our economy.

0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:03.440
<v Speaker 1>We're finding our way back, whether it was a republic

0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:05.280
<v Speaker 1>in the White House or a Democrat like this is

0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.480
<v Speaker 1>what you're dealing with. It's really tough. I do wonder though,

0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.720
<v Speaker 1>when we get on the other side of this, are

0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.040
<v Speaker 1>there companies industries are saying you know what, we really

0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.560
<v Speaker 1>don't need those kind of workers anymore, or you know what.

0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.200
<v Speaker 1>I know there's that demand side of what the economy

0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:21.400
<v Speaker 1>is like and what's going to be needed. But I

0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.520
<v Speaker 1>do wonder if this is going to be a real

0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.599
<v Speaker 1>readjustment and kind of the types of jobs that ultimately

0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.920
<v Speaker 1>stay with us and those that ultimately go away. Yeah.

0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look, I I'm in Uh, I'm in the

0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.080
<v Speaker 1>DC area right now, which is you know, partially reopened.

0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.599
<v Speaker 1>I even think in a reopened economy, people just aren't

0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:42.960
<v Speaker 1>going to go to restaurants, uh if they can do

0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.040
<v Speaker 1>take out. Uh. You know, we know that people aren't traveling.

0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.880
<v Speaker 1>People aren't going overseas because you know, U S systems

0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.679
<v Speaker 1>can't leave the country functionally, at least going to Europe.

0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:54.320
<v Speaker 1>So we know that travel will be down. We know

0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:57.040
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of companies have basically said, hey, you

0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.599
<v Speaker 1>work remotely for the rest of the year, which has

0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:04.160
<v Speaker 1>been a cascading impact through real estate and through mom

0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.960
<v Speaker 1>and pop, delis and all of the other services that

0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.560
<v Speaker 1>support companies along the way. Now, there may be other

0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.440
<v Speaker 1>other industries that pick up along the way, but I

0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.880
<v Speaker 1>suspect those are not the ones that are going to

0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.039
<v Speaker 1>be as job intensive and so you know a lot

0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:22.560
<v Speaker 1>of the broader structural changes we've seen in the economy

0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:26.359
<v Speaker 1>will probably be accelerated as a result of this. Like

0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:29.719
<v Speaker 1>what specifically though, Well I think of this. You know,

0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.520
<v Speaker 1>I as a person who probably eats more fast food

0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:34.760
<v Speaker 1>than I should. Uh, there is you know, you can

0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:37.400
<v Speaker 1>order online on your mobile app. You can also use

0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.279
<v Speaker 1>a touch screen, and I suspect in this environment, uh,

0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.120
<v Speaker 1>they're just gonna start to move to that. And it's

0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.680
<v Speaker 1>not to say you don't need people, you know, handling

0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:48.080
<v Speaker 1>the food, but it's going to be a lot fewer

0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:51.760
<v Speaker 1>of those people. Um, you know, and I think a

0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:53.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of the companies are going to realize, you know what,

0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:57.080
<v Speaker 1>we just don't need in general this many people around

0:05:57.120 --> 0:06:00.839
<v Speaker 1>the company as much as possible. So you know, we see, um,

0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:02.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, we might end up having a full recovery,

0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.240
<v Speaker 1>or you know, we might just kind of be operating

0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:08.880
<v Speaker 1>at this kind of seventy level for the foreseeable future,

0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:11.280
<v Speaker 1>which in many ways I think is the worst outcome

0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:15.680
<v Speaker 1>because you'd have a half open economy. Was still all

0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.680
<v Speaker 1>of the increased infections and death. You know, we did

0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:21.040
<v Speaker 1>tease that this week was interesting. I feel like over

0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.039
<v Speaker 1>the last week or so that we are now once

0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:28.600
<v Speaker 1>again UM seeing updates on the virus from the White House. UM.

0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.400
<v Speaker 1>Vice President Pence is often conducting them. And what's interesting

0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:35.320
<v Speaker 1>is the tone has changed. They seem much more organized,

0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.039
<v Speaker 1>and you know, we were kidding that now they're saying, okay,

0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.040
<v Speaker 1>wear a mask, you know, but the tone has changed.

0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:43.400
<v Speaker 1>And is it just a case tell us about crisis.

0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you don't have the playbook initially when the

0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:47.880
<v Speaker 1>crisis hits, and you do learn as things go along.

0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.919
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of the progression in terms of

0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:55.400
<v Speaker 1>how the administration has handled the pandemic? Well, I really

0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.880
<v Speaker 1>think it's been the tale of two administrations. I mean

0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.840
<v Speaker 1>you've got even this week, while you had the Vice

0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:04.760
<v Speaker 1>President UM encouraging mask wearing, you had Secretary asar Uh

0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.919
<v Speaker 1>test on TV last weekend expressing concerns. Obviously Dr Fauci

0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:12.400
<v Speaker 1>this week testifying too. And then you have the President who,

0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:16.080
<v Speaker 1>while yesterday he said, you know, he's encouraging people to

0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:19.480
<v Speaker 1>wear masks, he again said that he thought this would disappear.

0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:22.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's kind of the challenge. I mean,

0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:27.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, UM, below the president, you've got the wheels

0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:30.000
<v Speaker 1>of government that are moving, um, that are ensuring that

0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, states get ventilators and PPEs and trying to

0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.880
<v Speaker 1>issue guidelines. But ultimately, the president has the biggest bully

0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.920
<v Speaker 1>pulpit um and I think the kind of lack of

0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:45.400
<v Speaker 1>consistent messages coming from him, I think have undermined a

0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:47.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of what you know, other people in his administration

0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:49.880
<v Speaker 1>are trying to do. I mean, you continue to see

0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:53.000
<v Speaker 1>a fairly significant number of people in this country who

0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, are not wearing masks right now. You've got

0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:59.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of states which you know, while encouraging masks

0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:02.000
<v Speaker 1>that got and there's encouraging masks, are not mandating them

0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:03.720
<v Speaker 1>as well. And we know that's you know, one of

0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.600
<v Speaker 1>the simplest things you can do. And so um, yeah,

0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.080
<v Speaker 1>there certainly has been an increased, a ramped up level

0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.080
<v Speaker 1>of concern and engagement this week, but I think it

0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.200
<v Speaker 1>would be a lot more effective if the president got

0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:19.080
<v Speaker 1>on board as well. And so, Chris, we love talking

0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.160
<v Speaker 1>to you about all branches of government because you've worked

0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.040
<v Speaker 1>in all of them, and I wonder what you make

0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:27.960
<v Speaker 1>of Congress's response at this point, either from a stimulus

0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:32.920
<v Speaker 1>perspective or for a stimulus slash rescue perspective, or from

0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.760
<v Speaker 1>the perspective of sort of setting the political and and

0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.480
<v Speaker 1>the tone around this. Yeah, I mean it's interesting. Um.

0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.079
<v Speaker 1>You know again, just on this mask wearing issue, I mean,

0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:47.240
<v Speaker 1>Speaker Pelosi has been, you know, very open about her

0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:49.640
<v Speaker 1>wearing a mask and is basically now requiring that if

0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.040
<v Speaker 1>you show up at a committee room as a House member,

0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:53.880
<v Speaker 1>you have to wear a mask or you'll get kicked out.

0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.520
<v Speaker 1>So she's trying to set that, um example of leadership.

0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.439
<v Speaker 1>I do think on the stimulus may think this is

0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna be problematic, and I think you know what I

0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.400
<v Speaker 1>hope does not come out of today's jobs numbers is

0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.319
<v Speaker 1>that people read it and say, you know what, mission accomplished.

0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:10.080
<v Speaker 1>We don't need to do anything else. I mean, we

0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.800
<v Speaker 1>know that these extended unemployment benefits are expiring at the

0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:18.440
<v Speaker 1>end of July. Fortunately, the Senate this week extended UM

0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:22.760
<v Speaker 1>the PPE program or the PPP program for small businesses.

0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.320
<v Speaker 1>That's a good thing. But again we continue to talk

0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:28.400
<v Speaker 1>about this next wave of layoffs that might come from

0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.600
<v Speaker 1>state and local governments that are just strapped right now,

0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:34.400
<v Speaker 1>and unless Washington provide some help, we're gonna start to

0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.640
<v Speaker 1>see layoffs. I mean, even this week we saw Mayor

0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Deblasio saying, you know, he might be furloughing workers in

0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:46.680
<v Speaker 1>New York. In Maryland, yesterday, Governor Hogan uh Is announced

0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:50.040
<v Speaker 1>he's cutting four million dollars from the state budgetal impact

0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.240
<v Speaker 1>services and employees as well. So, um, we are not

0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:55.640
<v Speaker 1>out of the woods and and so. And I think

0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:59.320
<v Speaker 1>that's sort of the problematic aspect of today's positive job numbers.

0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.480
<v Speaker 1>I think people will read it in the wrong way. Well,

0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I think your point is so smart, Chris, and that

0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:06.920
<v Speaker 1>this whole idea of that you've got to go the distance,

0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.160
<v Speaker 1>right And you can see certainly with the president, and

0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm not being critical, it's just obvious that he has

0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.880
<v Speaker 1>moved on to running his campaign. And at the same time,

0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.280
<v Speaker 1>like I think about the financial crisis, it wasn't like

0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:21.440
<v Speaker 1>one program and we were fixed. We still, you know,

0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.880
<v Speaker 1>to some does some extent you know, are thinking about

0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:25.720
<v Speaker 1>that and still dealing with it, like you have to

0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.880
<v Speaker 1>continue to be on it. Yeah, I mean, look, the

0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:30.920
<v Speaker 1>lesson we learned from the Great Recession is that we

0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:35.240
<v Speaker 1>did not put enough stimulus into um into the country,

0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 1>and we we kind of backed off way too quickly.

0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.840
<v Speaker 1>And you know this past week you had the said

0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:43.880
<v Speaker 1>Chairman J. Powell saying to Congress, don't get complacent, uh,

0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, in your in your economic response. And I

0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:49.280
<v Speaker 1>feel like we're getting a little complacent right now. And

0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:52.360
<v Speaker 1>the irony about the president's you know, kind of quote

0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:56.439
<v Speaker 1>unquote transition to greatness is that actually more stimulus would

0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.400
<v Speaker 1>help the economy and probably would help his re election prospects.

0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.760
<v Speaker 1>You Unfortunately, you know, there's this dynamic obviously with Senate

0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:06.760
<v Speaker 1>Republicans concerned about debt. Obviously, how Democrats have a pretty

0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:09.079
<v Speaker 1>expensive bill out there. So I'm hoping when they get

0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:12.280
<v Speaker 1>back from July four, um, cooler heads prevail and they

0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:15.280
<v Speaker 1>find some kind of compromise because we need that stimulus

0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:18.440
<v Speaker 1>in the economy. Absolutely, all right. Always great to catch

0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.079
<v Speaker 1>up with you. Never enough time. I feel like we

0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.800
<v Speaker 1>always have fifty eight more questions for you. But we

0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:26.599
<v Speaker 1>appreciate you coming with us on this day, as you

0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.920
<v Speaker 1>do most jobs, stays Chris Lew Senior Fellow, University of

0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Virginia Miller Center, former Deputy's Victory of labor under President Obama.

0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Johnnius on the phone from the DC area, This is

0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:44.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. I defy anyone to listen to this sentence

0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.000
<v Speaker 1>and not want to read this story. Sean Murphy was

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 1>an epic weed smoker, a devoted Tom Brady fan, and

0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.000
<v Speaker 1>the best cat Burglar that Lynn, Massachusetts had ever seen.

0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:57.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's irresistible, it is you're in, it is

0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 1>coming to a theater near you. Let's just put that

0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 1>out there. Absolutely, and to boot the stories written by

0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.199
<v Speaker 1>one of our all time favorite writers at Bloomberg Business Week,

0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 1>Zeke Fox, finance reporter for Bloomberg. He joins us on

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:12.880
<v Speaker 1>the phone and Zeke, this story is incredible. How did

0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 1>you find out about this? Well? I was I had

0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.600
<v Speaker 1>read a little bit about the about the case. It

0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.760
<v Speaker 1>was made the papers when the rings were stolen there

0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 1>when they were recovered, and uh, these are we should

0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:30.800
<v Speaker 1>point out sorry, these are super Bowl rings. These are

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.280
<v Speaker 1>um New England Patriots or excuse me, New York Giants

0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 1>super Bowl rings stolen by a Patriots fan. Yis yeah,

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 1>So after the infamous helmet catch super Bowl Super Bowl

0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.679
<v Speaker 1>forty two and two thousand and eight, when the Patriots,

0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:50.960
<v Speaker 1>who were on their way to an undefeated season and

0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:55.160
<v Speaker 1>we're upset by Uli Manning and the Giants. Uh, this

0:12:55.559 --> 0:13:00.679
<v Speaker 1>kapt burglar slash furniture mover from Lynn, Massachusetts stole the

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Giants Super Bowl rings and spoiler alert. I wrote to

0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:10.319
<v Speaker 1>him in prison and said, you know, I had heard

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.440
<v Speaker 1>a little about your about this story. By any chance,

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 1>are you Patriots fan like me? Would you like to

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 1>talk about it? And over the course of the last

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 1>year or so, he's he's been telling me his story,

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 1>and the true story of what happened is, you know,

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.840
<v Speaker 1>crazier than I even imagine. Well, this is a guy.

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the stealing of the rings is one thing,

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.959
<v Speaker 1>but he is quite a character right and has been,

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:45.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, stealing things for a long time. So he's

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 1>from Lynn, which is a suburb on Boston's North Shore,

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.480
<v Speaker 1>and when he was growing up it was a pretty

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 1>down and out place, and burglary was like a career

0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 1>path that a lot of or at least a good

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>number of young people actually pursued and got taught by

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:08.240
<v Speaker 1>older generations of burglars. And burglars and lymb specialized in

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:14.080
<v Speaker 1>trying open the doors to pharmacies and stealing the pills

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.080
<v Speaker 1>to resell. It's a pretty easy thing that could be done,

0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:19.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, in the cover of night, and you know,

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 1>you could often get away with it. And Murphy was

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:27.480
<v Speaker 1>introduced to this world in middle school, I believe at

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>Christmas time sleep over at his aunt's house. His cousin

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 1>taught him how to do it. But before long he

0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:41.400
<v Speaker 1>had moved on to much bigger scores. And so what's

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.160
<v Speaker 1>he I mean in your correspondence, like how would you

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 1>describe You do a nice job describing him the story

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 1>of but like how would you describe him to to folksy?

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 1>So he really is like a typical Boston character. He

0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 1>loved the Patriots. He worked money through Friday at his

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:05.680
<v Speaker 1>real moving company, which really did move future people's furniture.

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 1>He drove muscle cars. He liked to work on his Camaro,

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 1>which had a custom red vul or interior um. He

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 1>liked Motley Crue and other hair metal A lot of

0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>the times. He had a mullet and a biker mustache

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 1>um and he liked He didn't really do drugs, which

0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:33.840
<v Speaker 1>was the downfall of a lot of his contemporaries among

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 1>Blend's burglars. But he really liked smoking weed and coming

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 1>up with complex heists. I mean it's remarkable, you know.

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>First of all, it's it's so well written. It's such

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>a great read. And I'm not kidding that I could see,

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly here we are working from home and

0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 1>we've all binged on Tiger King like this is I

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 1>could see in a multi part series um on one

0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.160
<v Speaker 1>of the streaming services. Because it's almost too good to

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 1>be true, but it is true, um. And it's just

0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.280
<v Speaker 1>this fascinating character, right who It was just a way

0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 1>of life for him, right in terms of where he

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.920
<v Speaker 1>was born and and and you know what he did,

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 1>and as you said, he kind of builds up to

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>his crimes. I mean ultimately though, and I'm going to

0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:22.880
<v Speaker 1>say there's some interesting personal life stuff that went on too,

0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 1>in terms of girlfriends and and how he went about that.

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:34.680
<v Speaker 1>But I mean, ultimately he was caught, right, Yes, So Murphy,

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.560
<v Speaker 1>if you talk to him, he'll say he's never really

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.000
<v Speaker 1>been caught because he doesn't consider it being caught unless

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 1>he's caught in the act. The problem is that quite

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>a few times he has been caught. He's spent almost

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 1>i think even more than half his life in prison

0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:56.240
<v Speaker 1>because the ways that the police work is not so

0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.440
<v Speaker 1>much to catch people in the act, but to find

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>out about things that happened, talk to people who might

0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 1>know about it, and prosecute the guilty party once they've

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.800
<v Speaker 1>identified them. It's kind of like a myth that they

0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 1>would catch a burglar in the act so much. Um so,

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:18.239
<v Speaker 1>he's frequently throughout his career, I guess I'll call it

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:24.560
<v Speaker 1>has been uh sold out by people who you know,

0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>had worked with him or who knew him. In the

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Super Bowl, Uh, theft was really no was they worked

0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 1>out like that too? Yeah, I mean it's really I

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>mean there's also for for Patriots fans, and everything's turned

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 1>out just fine for Patriots fans. Let's not le let's

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.240
<v Speaker 1>not shed any tears for for the Pats fans. But

0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 1>it does take you back to a really a really

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of pivotal time. And I mean that rivalry, and

0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:56.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean I remember watching that game and he mentioned,

0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, the helmet catch and and that was Peate

0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 1>Eli man uh in many ways, and so it's just

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.359
<v Speaker 1>it's a tail that really resonates in in time for

0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of sports fans more than as much as anything, well, yeah,

0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:16.040
<v Speaker 1>I hope that it's Uh, it's something fun for sports

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:21.199
<v Speaker 1>fans who haven't had anything to watch for exactly. All right,

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.159
<v Speaker 1>So how do you fit it? Just before we let

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.080
<v Speaker 1>you go, how do you feel about Brady and Tampa?

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.919
<v Speaker 1>Oh well, I'm I'm a past fan myself, so I

0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:32.919
<v Speaker 1>know I hate to see it. I hate to see if,

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.040
<v Speaker 1>but I'll still be rooting for him to do well.

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:39.399
<v Speaker 1>And Cam Newton, how are you feeling about that? I

0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>think you know he makes the past super Bowl contenders.

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm psyched to see what Belichick comes up with for

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.440
<v Speaker 1>him to do. Yeah, never bet against Belichick. I think

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:51.679
<v Speaker 1>that's the one. One of the takeaways that we all

0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.000
<v Speaker 1>have this story. It's a must read, the perfect long

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.280
<v Speaker 1>weekend read. Carol can't recommend it enough. And love, love,

0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.680
<v Speaker 1>love anything. Fox puts his mind to Ben Affleck maybe

0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 1>does the movie. Yeah, yeah, checks out. It's just it's

0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.560
<v Speaker 1>such a great week and it is just kind of fascinating.

0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:11.879
<v Speaker 1>The guy, like, you know, while I was in in jail,

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.600
<v Speaker 1>like taught himself law, right, I think, so we can

0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 1>represent himself and understand the law. Um, so it's just

0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:20.560
<v Speaker 1>a great thing. I'll put it out on Twitter. And

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 1>you guys pick up the magazine or check it out

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.560
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. So really fascinating. Um, Seek Fox,

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.640
<v Speaker 1>what I love talking to him? I could just imagine

0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:31.920
<v Speaker 1>the communication. I mean, that's kind of a side story.

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:33.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean, maybe that's how you do the movie. Like

0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:37.159
<v Speaker 1>the reporter's perspective of reaching out and getting access to

0:19:37.240 --> 0:19:39.720
<v Speaker 1>seek Fox. We'll have to work on that. I'll have

0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:43.760
<v Speaker 1>to ask seek I don't know want to play him.

0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:48.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't put that on on Twitter. This is Bloomberg

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:52.800
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's do a little business week economics. Now.

0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:58.959
<v Speaker 1>Obviously we've been talking about it all day, the jobs

0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 1>report and the is data that have come out. Obviously,

0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.520
<v Speaker 1>one of the strongest and most important voices that we

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 1>turned to in the administration's Larry Cutlow, the chief Economic

0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Advisor to the President. He caught up with our own

0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 1>John Farrow this morning on Blueberg Surveillance to talk about

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the job support. Here he talks about the trend of

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:21.199
<v Speaker 1>temporary workers getting back to work. Well, look, first of all,

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:26.280
<v Speaker 1>it's a spectacular number and it helps the overall situation enormously.

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 1>So you know, that's really the key point. We've created

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:31.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of jobs in the last couple of months,

0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:35.239
<v Speaker 1>and the trends continue. I want to say one thing

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:39.040
<v Speaker 1>I was listening to that earlier conversation. I don't think

0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:43.960
<v Speaker 1>people understand that relationship the rescue package that the President

0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:48.040
<v Speaker 1>led with bipartisan support and Congress, and the p p

0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:52.840
<v Speaker 1>P that Secretary manution uh fostered and implemented. It's the

0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:57.359
<v Speaker 1>temporary layoffs, John, It's the furloughs that are coming down.

0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:03.439
<v Speaker 1>We kept people connected their employers. Okay, they did receive assistance,

0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 1>but we kept them connected so that as the economy

0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:11.720
<v Speaker 1>reopened and the businesses reopened, roughly a small business reopened.

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.480
<v Speaker 1>So we saw it again today. I mean, sixty three

0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:18.640
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent of unemployed now are temporary workers.

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:23.119
<v Speaker 1>That number was seventy and was seven point seven million.

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't see why that trend can continue. That's the

0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:29.040
<v Speaker 1>point I'm making. I don't I'm not sure. It's like

0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.920
<v Speaker 1>an intellectual disconnect why that trend can continue a lot

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:37.320
<v Speaker 1>of temporary layoffs will go back to work. And certainly

0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:42.560
<v Speaker 1>is Larry Cutler, the chief Economic codpiser to the President Carol. Yeah, absolutely,

0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:44.600
<v Speaker 1>and I guess time will tell Jason right if that

0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.080
<v Speaker 1>trend continues. I mean, he's making that point and we'll

0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:50.919
<v Speaker 1>see uh in job reports to come. Certainly, that weekly

0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:53.600
<v Speaker 1>number was a bit troublesome, So let's get more analysis

0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.359
<v Speaker 1>of today's data set. Business Week Economics continuing with Bloomberg

0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:01.240
<v Speaker 1>Economics senior US economist Lana shill Chiva joining a sound

0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the phone in Long Island. So, Eleen, how did you

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 1>and the Bloomberg Economics team read the data points that

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.920
<v Speaker 1>we got on the jobs market? Right? We got monthly

0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 1>jobs numbers backward looking and before we started kind of

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:18.119
<v Speaker 1>closing down parts of the economy again. And then of

0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:23.200
<v Speaker 1>course we got the weekly numbers absolutely and both are

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:27.840
<v Speaker 1>very significant. So pay rolls was an upward surprise, and

0:22:28.080 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>it was a positive report all across, once again highlighting

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:37.119
<v Speaker 1>that economic fundamentals are strong enough for the recovery to

0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 1>take place once the health crisis is over. And that's

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a big heavy at though. So because you know, we

0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:49.439
<v Speaker 1>we all listen to the news, we all watch the news,

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:53.240
<v Speaker 1>and we see the big acceleration in the number of

0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen cases, particularly in the Sun Belt States. And

0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:01.440
<v Speaker 1>I would say that the month so July will actually

0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:06.159
<v Speaker 1>help us define the trajectory of the economic growth going

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 1>forward for the remainder of the year. So will we

0:23:09.119 --> 0:23:14.440
<v Speaker 1>see another um round of business closures or we will

0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:18.399
<v Speaker 1>just continue to jog along and and uh, you know

0:23:19.320 --> 0:23:24.520
<v Speaker 1>this uh recent spike in the number of cases will subside. Uh.

0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:27.959
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's it's a lot of questions the

0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:31.719
<v Speaker 1>data telling us, yes, things were looking good in June,

0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:36.119
<v Speaker 1>but well in July already, and a lot of things

0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>have changed since June. Yeah, I mean a lot of

0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:41.919
<v Speaker 1>things have changed that I think we're already seeing in

0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:44.399
<v Speaker 1>some of the other data, right, Elene, I mean, what

0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:47.000
<v Speaker 1>are you looking at the givets maybe a more realistic

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:52.879
<v Speaker 1>picture of of current issues, current economic activity beyond the

0:23:53.040 --> 0:23:58.840
<v Speaker 1>job and jobless claims. So you just mentioned one of them, right,

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:04.520
<v Speaker 1>And this is the number of jobless benefits and jobless

0:24:04.520 --> 0:24:10.480
<v Speaker 1>benefits have been stubbornly, stubbornly elevated. So and that might

0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:15.320
<v Speaker 1>not be surprising given that the re acceleration in COVID

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 1>nineteen cases started right after the payroll survey week for

0:24:20.960 --> 0:24:23.919
<v Speaker 1>the months of June. So the second half of June

0:24:24.320 --> 0:24:28.880
<v Speaker 1>actually already saw uh pick up in cases, and that

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:34.119
<v Speaker 1>might be telling us that some businesses were ready to reopen,

0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:39.479
<v Speaker 1>but they didn't, so that resulted in a significant in

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:44.880
<v Speaker 1>high number in jobless claims, or maybe there were some

0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:52.040
<v Speaker 1>new um claimants and uh, this number may in fact rebounds.

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:55.440
<v Speaker 1>So Jason and I caught up with as we usually

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:59.119
<v Speaker 1>do on monthly Jobs Days, with Chris Lew, former Deputy

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Labor under President Obama. And you know, his

0:25:03.400 --> 0:25:05.800
<v Speaker 1>point is, you know that we learned some things from

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the financial crisis that they didn't put enough stimulus out

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:11.240
<v Speaker 1>in in the beginning. Right, So the lesson right now

0:25:11.320 --> 0:25:13.440
<v Speaker 1>is he said, you can't be complacent that we're gonna

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:18.720
<v Speaker 1>probably need more stimulus when those benefits um stop in July. Um,

0:25:18.840 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 1>is that a given, Elena that in order for us

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:25.479
<v Speaker 1>to maintain whatever economic recovery is happening right now, we're

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:30.080
<v Speaker 1>going to need those stimulus checks from the government. Bottom line. Absolutely,

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:34.760
<v Speaker 1>and uh and unfortunately as well. So I mean listening

0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:38.520
<v Speaker 1>to what Mr Cuddler was saying. He was saying that

0:25:38.560 --> 0:25:47.240
<v Speaker 1>they basically the package helped the companies to keep their

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:50.560
<v Speaker 1>workers on the payrolls. And this is absolutely true. The

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:54.520
<v Speaker 1>package was very timely. It was right in size, and

0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:57.760
<v Speaker 1>that's why we see all these numbers that being so strong.

0:25:58.080 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 1>And you absolutely right, if we if we see this

0:26:01.760 --> 0:26:05.920
<v Speaker 1>UH falling off a cliff, we may see a significant

0:26:06.240 --> 0:26:09.399
<v Speaker 1>decline in economic activity. Is simply due to the fact

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:13.920
<v Speaker 1>that a wage income remains well below pre crisis level.

0:26:14.520 --> 0:26:20.359
<v Speaker 1>It's it's something like seven point two below that February level.

0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:24.359
<v Speaker 1>We made some progress in kind of closing that gap,

0:26:24.600 --> 0:26:28.920
<v Speaker 1>but it's way below still and going forward it will

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:32.400
<v Speaker 1>depend on how many jobs we create and how these

0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:35.639
<v Speaker 1>jobs are playing well. The economic applications of all of

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:39.520
<v Speaker 1>this are are very broad and wide, no doubt about it. Hey, Lena,

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:42.200
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Have a good holiday weekend. You'll

0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:46.200
<v Speaker 1>initially Giva of course of our Bloomberg Economics team joining

0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Long Island. This is Bloomberg

0:26:49.840 --> 0:26:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:56.760
<v Speaker 1>The virus. Jason, We've talked about this a lot. It's

0:26:56.800 --> 0:26:59.520
<v Speaker 1>been a big reminder about the inequalities when it comes

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:02.159
<v Speaker 1>to health care access and those who ultimately suffer the

0:27:02.240 --> 0:27:06.119
<v Speaker 1>most really from it. Dr Shemi uh Sheima excuse me.

0:27:06.480 --> 0:27:10.439
<v Speaker 1>Dr Sheima Hamidi was recently named Bloomberg Assistant Professor of

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 1>American Health and Environmental Challenges and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University,

0:27:14.840 --> 0:27:17.640
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg School of Public House supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder,

0:27:17.680 --> 0:27:21.679
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ALP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, and Dr Hamidi joins us

0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in Baltimore. Dr Remedy, It's nice to

0:27:24.600 --> 0:27:28.040
<v Speaker 1>have you here with us. We are taking, you know,

0:27:28.040 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 1>a really hard look at the virus and you know,

0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:34.960
<v Speaker 1>talking a lot more UM how different communities are impacted,

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:37.159
<v Speaker 1>and that is something that has certainly been front and

0:27:37.200 --> 0:27:43.480
<v Speaker 1>center for you. Thank you for having me um absolutely UM. So,

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's been a lot of UM research and

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>uh many many researchers have been looking at different aspects

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:54.760
<v Speaker 1>of COVID nineteen pandemic. One aspect that has been less

0:27:54.840 --> 0:27:59.320
<v Speaker 1>studied relatively has been density. UM to what extent we

0:27:59.440 --> 0:28:03.040
<v Speaker 1>see there, you know, any connection between density and the

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:09.560
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen pandemic. What we see from the conversations among practitioners,

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:14.280
<v Speaker 1>UM in even in the academic context or news media outlets. Uh,

0:28:14.359 --> 0:28:18.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, you see extensive coverage that blaming density urban

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:21.960
<v Speaker 1>density for the rapid growth of COVID nineteen, particularly in

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>New York City, and referring to suburban sprawl as the

0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:30.320
<v Speaker 1>United States secret weapon against Corona virus. UM. So, what

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:34.240
<v Speaker 1>myself and my team have been trying to do I

0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>was to look closer at this issue and topic, doing

0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 1>a national study looking at nine d and thirteen metropolitan

0:28:42.320 --> 0:28:45.600
<v Speaker 1>counties in the US and really looking at what what

0:28:45.760 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 1>the data sells us and what does it tell you?

0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 1>Because I believe in in your research, Darctor Remitte, you

0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:56.719
<v Speaker 1>have you distinguished between activity density density as being distinct

0:28:56.760 --> 0:28:59.560
<v Speaker 1>from crowding or overcrowding. And I feel like that's a

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 1>real important distinction to help us understand that absolutely, uh,

0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 1>this is very very important because these are the two

0:29:09.720 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 1>UM concepts that are most often confounded with each other,

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:19.360
<v Speaker 1>density and crowding or overcrowding. Crowding could happen when a

0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:23.520
<v Speaker 1>large number of people gathered closely together UM, and it

0:29:23.560 --> 0:29:29.360
<v Speaker 1>could happen in bars, restaurants, schools, sports events, airports, supermarket

0:29:29.800 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>or even on beaches as you've been UM seeing on

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:37.080
<v Speaker 1>the news in Florida or or beaches in California. And

0:29:37.160 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 1>by definition, the crowding could happen even at the very

0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>low density areas and all of these venues. UM and

0:29:44.800 --> 0:29:47.520
<v Speaker 1>always that they've been trying to distinguish between the two

0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>crowding and density and see to what extent, Uh, you know,

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:54.560
<v Speaker 1>when you control for the level of crowding or people's

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:59.080
<v Speaker 1>level of social distancing, what is the relationship between density,

0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:04.560
<v Speaker 1>UM activity, density and the COVID nineteen spread. Yeah, it's

0:30:04.600 --> 0:30:08.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, something that's just kind of unfortunately a stark reality.

0:30:08.640 --> 0:30:10.640
<v Speaker 1>You know when you look at this, how can we

0:30:11.120 --> 0:30:14.720
<v Speaker 1>do better going forward? Because this is just you know,

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:17.680
<v Speaker 1>in terms of how people are living and their exposure.

0:30:18.040 --> 0:30:20.240
<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's a reality. But how do we

0:30:20.360 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 1>change that? So the first thing I want to mention is,

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:28.920
<v Speaker 1>which is our biggest message, is that density is not

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:33.160
<v Speaker 1>a factor. Uh. Dense places are not linked to a

0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 1>higher infection rates per capital infection rates and mortality rates.

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 1>They quiet the opposite. These places are linked to significantly

0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:48.719
<v Speaker 1>lower death rates. But what is really important is crowding. UM.

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:52.880
<v Speaker 1>I have done a follow up study that's currently under

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:55.920
<v Speaker 1>under review by a journal looking at New York cities,

0:30:55.960 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 1>for example, and different neighborhoods in New York and what

0:30:59.240 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>we've see in of the special disparities of the infection

0:31:04.320 --> 0:31:07.200
<v Speaker 1>rates and built environment. And what I found on these

0:31:07.200 --> 0:31:10.800
<v Speaker 1>twistories and the other one is that, uh, it's it's

0:31:10.840 --> 0:31:16.640
<v Speaker 1>about crowding, crowded housing. UM, it's about crowded businesses um

0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:20.760
<v Speaker 1>as assign mentioned bars, restaurants or other venues where you

0:31:20.840 --> 0:31:24.040
<v Speaker 1>have a large number of people gathered together. UM. And

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:29.280
<v Speaker 1>it's about um, the social demographic and racial disparities. The

0:31:29.320 --> 0:31:34.320
<v Speaker 1>most significant factor being um, you know being um racial

0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>disparities or percentage of African Americans who are more vulnerable

0:31:38.600 --> 0:31:42.479
<v Speaker 1>to the pandemic. According to CBC. The other big factor

0:31:42.600 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 1>is to what extent people are working on job sectors

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:50.520
<v Speaker 1>that allow them to do social distancing for example, UM,

0:31:50.640 --> 0:31:54.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, um, the the educational attainments and job sectors. UM.

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 1>The other very important factor, particularly in New York City,

0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:02.040
<v Speaker 1>is the extent to be people could actually leave the

0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 1>city and emptying out um the city uh to scape

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:10.160
<v Speaker 1>dependemic and you have you you can see that particularly

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:14.120
<v Speaker 1>in Manhattan, New York. In Manhattan, part of New York

0:32:14.160 --> 0:32:19.200
<v Speaker 1>City where um the majority of neighborhoods had a significant

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 1>portion of residents leaving the city and by definition, you

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:25.200
<v Speaker 1>can't get the virus, you know, if you leave the

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 1>city right But you can only do that if you

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:31.320
<v Speaker 1>can afford to leave rightly in terms of your jobs.

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:33.400
<v Speaker 1>And that is definitely something we've talked about a lot,

0:32:33.440 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>certainly on our broadcast in fact, just talking about some

0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 1>of the closings when it comes to Manhattan real estate

0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 1>right now and what's going on. But that that exodus

0:32:42.680 --> 0:32:44.560
<v Speaker 1>is something we've talked about and who can do it?

0:32:45.040 --> 0:32:50.240
<v Speaker 1>Dr Sima Hamdy, she is Bloomberg Assistant Professor of American Health,

0:32:50.440 --> 0:32:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Environmental Challenges and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, joining us

0:32:54.320 --> 0:33:01.920
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Baltimore, and all but you let

0:33:01.960 --> 0:33:06.840
<v Speaker 1>me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll

0:33:06.840 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 1>do the riding drivel. I want to drive. Just drive, baby,

0:33:16.600 --> 0:33:27.720
<v Speaker 1>good questions trying. This is the drive to the Globe community.

0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Thanks well, try us on Bloomberg Radio. Well, all right,

0:33:32.360 --> 0:33:35.360
<v Speaker 1>as we drive to the clothes on this Thursday, the

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:37.800
<v Speaker 1>end of the trading week ahead of the long holiday weekend,

0:33:38.040 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 1>let's check in with our pal, Alan Zaffron, founding partner

0:33:40.560 --> 0:33:43.080
<v Speaker 1>in co CEO of I e Q Capital. He joins

0:33:43.120 --> 0:33:46.120
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Foster City at California, Alan,

0:33:46.160 --> 0:33:50.160
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm doing great, seventy three the grades, Johnny,

0:33:50.240 --> 0:33:53.440
<v Speaker 1>no humidity. It is a beautiful day in California. My

0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:56.560
<v Speaker 1>friend good well, I'm glad to hear it. Um. I

0:33:56.600 --> 0:33:58.800
<v Speaker 1>gotta ask you. You know, you get to the end

0:33:58.840 --> 0:34:01.120
<v Speaker 1>of this week, you see the job to report, you

0:34:01.120 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 1>see the jobless claims to report. You're seeing the headlines

0:34:04.760 --> 0:34:08.960
<v Speaker 1>in California that we are that are pretty scary when

0:34:09.040 --> 0:34:11.239
<v Speaker 1>it comes to what's going on with the virus in

0:34:11.280 --> 0:34:15.319
<v Speaker 1>California and Texas, in Arizona and Florida and elsewhere. How

0:34:15.360 --> 0:34:18.680
<v Speaker 1>do you square it all? You square it all because

0:34:18.719 --> 0:34:21.240
<v Speaker 1>you realize a lot of the capital that the balance

0:34:21.320 --> 0:34:23.719
<v Speaker 1>sheet is expansion. For the sad it's happening is going

0:34:23.840 --> 0:34:27.000
<v Speaker 1>right to the stock market. It's not connected to people

0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 1>working in the leisure and hospitality industry are out here

0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:33.200
<v Speaker 1>in southern California's the motion picture and sound recording industry.

0:34:33.520 --> 0:34:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Those people have lost jobs and it's not clear they're

0:34:35.680 --> 0:34:39.920
<v Speaker 1>coming back. So there's clearly a disconnect between the current

0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:43.439
<v Speaker 1>status of the financial markets in the main economy and

0:34:44.560 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 1>it's it's difficult because patients is going to play out

0:34:48.600 --> 0:34:50.719
<v Speaker 1>that probably this was the right thing to do, is

0:34:50.760 --> 0:34:52.920
<v Speaker 1>goose up the economy, and it's very hard to swallow

0:34:53.239 --> 0:34:54.799
<v Speaker 1>if you don't have a job right now, you watch

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:56.919
<v Speaker 1>the market go up and you feel like you're not participating.

0:34:57.000 --> 0:35:00.799
<v Speaker 1>It's a very difficult visceral thing to experien because you're

0:35:00.840 --> 0:35:03.680
<v Speaker 1>not participating. I think that's the one thing to alan

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:06.480
<v Speaker 1>that I do get a little concerned that folks in

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:10.440
<v Speaker 1>Washington the administration are focusing maybe too much as are

0:35:10.520 --> 0:35:14.360
<v Speaker 1>on the stock market as an indicator of us bouncing

0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:17.800
<v Speaker 1>back from the virus. When we know that a large

0:35:17.840 --> 0:35:22.080
<v Speaker 1>part of Americans don't participate in the equity markets. Well

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:25.080
<v Speaker 1>that's right. You know something close to six Americans have

0:35:25.239 --> 0:35:28.239
<v Speaker 1>less than twenty five thousand dollars of safet. Do you

0:35:28.320 --> 0:35:31.239
<v Speaker 1>wonder why there's a gap that says it right there?

0:35:31.280 --> 0:35:34.880
<v Speaker 1>And unfortunately think COVID has accelerated a lot of trends,

0:35:35.160 --> 0:35:37.279
<v Speaker 1>one of which is the widening gap between the rich

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and report. If you have a balance sheet, you're actually

0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:43.239
<v Speaker 1>benishiting as we bounced back. If you live you know

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:46.239
<v Speaker 1>day to day, Um, you may have lost that job

0:35:46.280 --> 0:35:48.520
<v Speaker 1>and you don't have any savings. The benefit here, um,

0:35:48.680 --> 0:35:53.759
<v Speaker 1>it is incredibly difficult um to message properly. But you know,

0:35:53.800 --> 0:35:56.719
<v Speaker 1>I look at the Sandilis said, President of Buller just

0:35:56.840 --> 0:36:00.040
<v Speaker 1>came out and he said, we're keeping the balot a

0:36:00.120 --> 0:36:02.480
<v Speaker 1>sheet loose for a long while because we are worried

0:36:03.120 --> 0:36:07.160
<v Speaker 1>about a potential wave of bankruptcies if the health crisis

0:36:07.160 --> 0:36:10.160
<v Speaker 1>gets out of control. It's not our base case, but

0:36:10.320 --> 0:36:13.200
<v Speaker 1>we have to be ready in advance. We can't react

0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:17.520
<v Speaker 1>after the fact that the consequence of that if you

0:36:17.560 --> 0:36:19.680
<v Speaker 1>get an expansion the FED balance sheet, and if you

0:36:19.719 --> 0:36:24.360
<v Speaker 1>believe Morgan Stanley and Jeffreys, somewhere between seventy the balance

0:36:24.400 --> 0:36:28.160
<v Speaker 1>sheet expansion flows right through the stocks. And so we asked,

0:36:28.239 --> 0:36:31.480
<v Speaker 1>why are we bouncing up right now? The belief is

0:36:31.600 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 1>the Fed is going to expand the balance sheet kind

0:36:33.760 --> 0:36:38.560
<v Speaker 1>of around ten trillion dollars. Well, we've already expanded six trillions.

0:36:38.640 --> 0:36:41.160
<v Speaker 1>And so you say to yourself, you know what does

0:36:41.200 --> 0:36:44.400
<v Speaker 1>that mean? Well, put it in context. So follow the

0:36:44.440 --> 0:36:47.759
<v Speaker 1>math the market right now, the SMP five hundreds worth

0:36:47.760 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 1>about twenty seven trillion. Every one trillion dollars a stimulus

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:55.400
<v Speaker 1>adds so quickly. And if you go back to Europe,

0:36:55.400 --> 0:36:58.799
<v Speaker 1>in Japan, their balance sheets in the Central Bank are

0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:01.840
<v Speaker 1>a hundred percent of ep R GDP is twenty trillion.

0:37:02.400 --> 0:37:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Instead of going from six to ten trillion, we go

0:37:04.640 --> 0:37:09.480
<v Speaker 1>from six to twenty trillion. Bearing in mind that slows

0:37:09.520 --> 0:37:12.799
<v Speaker 1>through the stocks. You're gonna see a huge move up

0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:15.719
<v Speaker 1>on the stock market. And that's why you don't fight

0:37:15.760 --> 0:37:19.239
<v Speaker 1>the fact if money is flowing right into the stock most,

0:37:19.960 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 1>and that's that's a really hard bill to swallow. If

0:37:23.120 --> 0:37:26.000
<v Speaker 1>you were working in the motion theater industry or a

0:37:26.080 --> 0:37:29.960
<v Speaker 1>sight seeing industry, or some kind of transiitent ground transportation,

0:37:30.080 --> 0:37:32.439
<v Speaker 1>those are all the jobs have been lost, and it's

0:37:32.520 --> 0:37:35.560
<v Speaker 1>really tough to swallow. And so um the fat has

0:37:35.560 --> 0:37:37.480
<v Speaker 1>to play that loose because and then we've gotta wave

0:37:37.480 --> 0:37:39.480
<v Speaker 1>a bankruptcy. There's got to be a mechanism to take

0:37:39.520 --> 0:37:42.000
<v Speaker 1>care of those people who don't have the jobs. So

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:44.399
<v Speaker 1>Alan talk to me about real estate because it's something

0:37:44.440 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 1>that I know you think about. We think about it

0:37:46.600 --> 0:37:48.480
<v Speaker 1>here on the East Coast. I think if you're in

0:37:48.520 --> 0:37:52.719
<v Speaker 1>one of these like highly or very expensive areas, both

0:37:52.719 --> 0:37:55.680
<v Speaker 1>from a commercial and a residential perspective, you sort of

0:37:55.719 --> 0:37:59.279
<v Speaker 1>wonder what the future is. You wonder where the other

0:37:59.520 --> 0:38:02.240
<v Speaker 1>shoote ops if it does when it comes to real estate,

0:38:02.800 --> 0:38:04.600
<v Speaker 1>how do you think about real estate in this environment?

0:38:05.680 --> 0:38:07.640
<v Speaker 1>Real estate is really challenged because I don't know what

0:38:07.680 --> 0:38:12.560
<v Speaker 1>the rules are regarding poor bearance. So um, I think

0:38:12.640 --> 0:38:15.239
<v Speaker 1>all you can do is recognized the banks don't want

0:38:15.239 --> 0:38:17.880
<v Speaker 1>to take possessions of buildings if you're a landlords. Landlords

0:38:18.000 --> 0:38:19.640
<v Speaker 1>like they're getting stuck with the fact that they have

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:22.480
<v Speaker 1>to deal with people differing the rent payments. The reality

0:38:22.560 --> 0:38:24.399
<v Speaker 1>of a lot of people differing the rent payments can't

0:38:24.400 --> 0:38:26.719
<v Speaker 1>afford to make the payments. I'm not sure everyone's game

0:38:26.760 --> 0:38:29.120
<v Speaker 1>playing the system. I think it is difficult to be

0:38:29.120 --> 0:38:32.040
<v Speaker 1>an investor in real estate in the short run, in

0:38:32.120 --> 0:38:33.680
<v Speaker 1>that you don't know what your cash flows are going

0:38:33.719 --> 0:38:38.760
<v Speaker 1>to be from people renting apartments, store owners in office buildings.

0:38:39.200 --> 0:38:41.799
<v Speaker 1>I think the assurances if you're it's like everything else,

0:38:42.400 --> 0:38:44.479
<v Speaker 1>if you're in the right location with the right type

0:38:44.480 --> 0:38:48.000
<v Speaker 1>of property, Um, you can recognize today this is still

0:38:48.040 --> 0:38:52.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be a somewhat temporary, uh situation of diminished

0:38:52.120 --> 0:38:54.920
<v Speaker 1>cash flow as long as in the white property. If

0:38:54.960 --> 0:38:57.680
<v Speaker 1>you're in a tertiary property in an office building, good luck.

0:38:58.120 --> 0:39:00.799
<v Speaker 1>So I think this whole crisis reinforces real esty comes

0:39:00.800 --> 0:39:03.320
<v Speaker 1>down to a quality of property, and even if you

0:39:03.360 --> 0:39:06.120
<v Speaker 1>think there's a modest diminishment of cash flow in the

0:39:06.160 --> 0:39:09.480
<v Speaker 1>next three to twelve months, um, that property is going

0:39:09.520 --> 0:39:11.640
<v Speaker 1>to hold during value long one. We will get through

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 1>this eventually, and there will still be people eventually working

0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:16.560
<v Speaker 1>out of office buildings, and people will still be paying

0:39:16.600 --> 0:39:18.800
<v Speaker 1>the rent, paying the rent because they will still mostly

0:39:18.840 --> 0:39:21.640
<v Speaker 1>be employed. It says to me, though, alan the building

0:39:21.640 --> 0:39:24.640
<v Speaker 1>boom that we've seen in so many different cities, you know,

0:39:24.840 --> 0:39:27.439
<v Speaker 1>out of the Great Recession, and certainly in the last

0:39:27.480 --> 0:39:30.279
<v Speaker 1>few years, you know it's going to ultimately they'll mean

0:39:30.320 --> 0:39:33.960
<v Speaker 1>that we've done some overbuilding here. We've done a lot

0:39:33.960 --> 0:39:36.279
<v Speaker 1>of overbuilding, particularly in retails. You're gonna see retail, by

0:39:36.320 --> 0:39:38.520
<v Speaker 1>the way, is going to get repurposed um in the

0:39:38.560 --> 0:39:40.920
<v Speaker 1>forms of things life apartment buildings, or in the thing

0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:44.279
<v Speaker 1>that hip and cool office going forward, but with more

0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:46.560
<v Speaker 1>square foot per employee, which may make it a little

0:39:46.640 --> 0:39:51.360
<v Speaker 1>less attractive cash flow perspectives. But the reality is we

0:39:51.400 --> 0:39:55.080
<v Speaker 1>are over retailed, we are overbuilt selectively. The flip side

0:39:55.080 --> 0:39:57.560
<v Speaker 1>of that is you're going to see renewed demand for housing,

0:39:57.600 --> 0:39:59.799
<v Speaker 1>suburban housing. You're going to see a whole new wave

0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:03.400
<v Speaker 1>of interest either in high quality apartment or in single

0:40:03.440 --> 0:40:09.279
<v Speaker 1>family residential away from the city and more towards the suburbs. Interesting. Yeah,

0:40:09.360 --> 0:40:11.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean I feel like there's a lot left to

0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:14.800
<v Speaker 1>be figured out and written and said about this. Allen Zaffron,

0:40:14.880 --> 0:40:17.960
<v Speaker 1>Always good to catch up with you, so thoughtful as always,

0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Joining us from Foster City, California. Allen Zaffron, founding partner

0:40:21.760 --> 0:40:24.880
<v Speaker 1>and co CEO of I e Q Capital. Thanks so

0:40:24.920 --> 0:40:27.480
<v Speaker 1>much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:30.200
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, South Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you

0:40:30.239 --> 0:40:32.479
<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts. And of course you can always listen

0:40:32.480 --> 0:40:35.240
<v Speaker 1>to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:40:35.400 --> 0:40:38.320
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News.