WEBVTT - Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages But Sets Conditions for Peace 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:14.400 Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.360 stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:23.360 shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:27.320 news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:31.720 with Carol Masther and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.040 We do have our most read story in the Bloomberg 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:37.640 now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.360 captured in that October seventh attack, but said the rest 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.680 of President Donald Trump's twenty point peace plan would be 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:43.920 subject to negotiation. 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:45.559 Let's get the latest on that. 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.200 For that, we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:51.960 Defense alys Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, This feels like 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:56.360 a big development, but again with caveats, walk us through 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.000 what's significant and what's still to be known. 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:02.680 Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.480 all at this point in time is good, right, It's 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.440 showing that from Hamas's side is Hey, look, we need 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.880 to come to the table with more than just with 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:12.759 more than just rhetoric. We actually have to put action 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.720 to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:18.320 put out is something that he's holding to, and I 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:20.800 mean he's said what he was planning on doing, if 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:27.000 not right, unleashing all hell on against Hamas. So they 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.120 are taking it seriously. But at the same time, they 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.240 do recognize that they're not able to just go ahead 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.880 and submit to all twenty twenty of those. So I 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.800 think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.039 play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.800 how to reach I don't know whether they're going to 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:43.520 go to all twenty and then it's really going to 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:44.919 be back into President Trump's hands. 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.480 Where do you yeah, other parts of the President's twenty 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.160 point plan require a unified national stance and must be 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:55.480 addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:57.360 it seem like to you. I don't want to call 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:59.720 them sticking points, because the twenty point plan is very 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.280 deep tilled, but based on the statement that we got 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.760 from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:07.480 agreeing to at this point and why? 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:11.480 I think I think some of the points that are 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.160 really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:17.760 as part of it, right, They realized that inside that 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.440 region when you're looking at what what countries are going 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.520 to go towards towards in backing the US and President 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.440 Trump's plan, and then which ones may not. You know, 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.960 there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in the here. 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:30.520 Likely with Trump is going to be UAE, It's going 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:34.120 to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:36.160 other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.480 not with President Trump as well. And that's like guitar 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.040 and Aman and Kuwait. They all playing different plays in this, right. 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:46.040 So I think the sticking point is making sure that 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.680 if if AMAS is coming to the table, what how 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:50.720 is it going to be felt within the region from 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:52.840 the Gulf states that may there still may try to 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:53.880 get out of their side. 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:55.799 I mean, yeah, and. 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.320 The relationships are so tricky here, right, like trying to 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:05.119 understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that, 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.200 I mean my understanding that I think we were talking 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.400 to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.800 about was it on Monday and that there were still 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.840 things going off in Gaza. 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:23.400 Yeah, as he was talking to us, we were hearing ordinance, right, Yeah. 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:27.160 And so it's just it's very tricky, it's very delicate, 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:29.400 and I'm just curious where Israel is in all of this, 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:30.960 and I guess we're going to be watching them very 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:31.600 closely here. 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.520 Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.480 a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.160 that that Hamas has actually come to the table and 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:43.720 has met those demands, right, So they're not going to 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:45.880 back off. I mean, at the most they would probably 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.080 do is they would hold the positions that they currently have. 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:51.840 But if there are military strikes based off of, you know, 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.640 credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership as 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.160 of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right, 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:02.160 they have not agreed to the twenty So therefore then 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.520 they consider it fair game as part of their offensive 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:07.680 operations that they have said that they were going to do. 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:09.960 They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen, 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:12.480 and so if they're still going to conduct that through that. 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.160 We saw that even in Israel Iran when when that 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.479 was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.760 President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:22.840 here's kind of the date, we're going to put this 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:25.080 line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:28.320 still continuing to fire at each other right up until 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:30.240 that last minute. So I bet this is part of that. 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:31.800 All Right, I'm going to be silly here, but we 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.240 are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.320 say that. And Bloomberg is a whole story on this, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.359 So I feel it's very credible, Wayne, But we have 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:41.680 a story. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.200 applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:46.920 of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.120 is going to be Is it announced next week or 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:53.040 very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.039 of this. Is it silly to even bring it up. 0:04:57.800 --> 0:04:59.760 I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:01.279 mean might be in the back of the mind. I 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:05.400 mean you heard during his conference with Secretary Hegsath and 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.240 all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:09.880 brought that up. He goes, they're not going to give 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:12.200 it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:13.400 you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:14.840 to me. They're going to give it to somebody else, 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:17.200 but it was something that he did still bring up, 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.000 So I think that is something that is out there. 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:21.760 Otherwise I don't think he would have brought it up 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:23.800 in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday. 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:24.920 And we should say the winner is going to be 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.039 announced on October ten, So it is just around the corner. 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:27.279 Yeah. 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.440 The President told the UN General Assembly last week that 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:32.000 everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.560 that he and the US never received any credit for 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:36.000 striking Abraham Accords. 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:39.840 More importantly, I think about not silly. 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:45.320 Is this going to bring real peace to this part 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.839 of the Middle East and really bring an end to 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:54.080 a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:55.600 that has gone on for so long. 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.440 Yeah, that's a really, really tough one, one that is 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.000 way above my pay grade. I only say that just 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.800 from the standpoint is there is so much history, so 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:08.960 much of their cultures that have been tied to this 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:11.920 for thousands of years. This isn't you know. This is 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.880 a new thing that's kind of coming up. So I 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.600 have a hard time believing that they ever are going 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.839 to completely just want to be at peace with one another. 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.479 But I think that if least you can create some 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.600 you know, strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:29.960 may at least provide some resolving piece over at least 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:30.520 the near term. 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:34.760 Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:36.640 just outside of Washington, d C. 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:38.680 And Bald's a power with Joe Matthew. 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:40.920 We'll have more on all of this, the ins and 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:43.040 outs of all of the news out of the nation's 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.919 capital coming up at five pm Wall Street time, and 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.040 of course the latest on what we are hearing on 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.720 this Humas agreement. 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:52.600 It seems like saying it agrees. 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.880 To release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement. 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:57.560 All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that. 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.800 Stay with us. More Fromloomberg Business Week Daily coming up 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:02.479 after this. 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:10.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:13.080 us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:17.160 Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.560 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:22.920 Normally we would be talking about this being jobs Friday. 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:24.720 You know that's not the case because of the US 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:28.280 government shutdown, So we are leaning on other data points 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:30.280 and voices for clues on the labor market, and that 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.640 includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.040 of the FED Board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.720 TV and Radio. One of the things he stressed that 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.680 he may just be data dependent after all, just like 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:43.280 Fitchair J. 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:43.760 Powell. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:47.360 So my view is driven by two things. Sheltered sorry 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.239 services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation. 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.040 Services are driven in large part by housing, and I 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.360 expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.720 something were to happen that were to tell me that 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:01.560 that channel is in validate, that there's some shock that's 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:06.840 going to be pushing rints materially higher, the benign inflation 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.800 forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:10.240 a result. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:14.280 That's FED Governor Stephen Myrin earlier today on Bloomberg Television 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.680 also Sheriff President Trump's Council and Economic Advisors on leave, 0:08:17.720 --> 0:08:20.480 though from that job now FED Governor. As we mentioned, 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:22.800 Michael McKee part of the team that did that interview. 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:25.080 He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:28.160 International Economics and Policy correspondent. He joins us here in 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.200 the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. So we're going to talk about 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:33.280 him being data dependent in just a second, but I 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:37.080 want to stick on this idea of shelter as it 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.880 relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis, What 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:45.240 is his theory that that part of inflation will start 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:45.680 to ease. 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.680 Well, the theory is that because they are removing so 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:53.720 many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.679 demand for housing, and that will bring down the price 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:00.520 of housing because more houses will be available to those 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.360 who are still here. It's based on a study that 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.240 was done in two thousand and three about the Marial 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:09.679 boat lift in Miami, which found that there was sort 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:12.360 of a one to one relationship there between removal and 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:16.560 prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:20.640 tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:26.320 a rule that will apply in the future. But that's 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.400 his story and that's what his belief is in terms 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:33.600 of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation. 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.240 Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the FED too, 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:40.160 actually effect and Fetcher J. Powell has talked about this 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:40.800 for years. 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:41.040 Mike. 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.800 He said, given the tools that we have we can 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.600 only do so much when it comes to shelter prices, 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.840 and in fact, he's talked about that being more of 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.319 a policy issue in the past than it is about 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.680 being part of the FEDS to a mandate. 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.800 Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:00.160 problem for housing is that there's not enough supply, and 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:03.040 a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations. 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.199 In cities. You can always build out in the suburbs. 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.480 Now you have to go to the exerbs, and you 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:10.760 start to get so far away from people's jobs that 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:12.959 they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:17.280 in the more central areas, which means you need more density, 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:21.440 and that's a big fight always, So that is a 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.960 policy problem. The other problem is that the FED controls 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:29.000 short rates, and so if you are worried about mortgage rates, 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:31.760 that they're going to be much more closely tied to 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:35.160 long treasuries like the ten year, and that's going to 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.679 be priced by the markets in what they think of 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.520 inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:48.080 people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:48.720 through housing. 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:50.760 Three or four houses for Salem, my I block. So 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:53.600 there's definitely some supply that I am seeing. And I 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.520 remember actually a voice this week on surveillance with Tom 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.920 and Paul that they talked in the morning about No, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.240 there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm a 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:05.840 little confused. I want to move on to another FED voice, 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:09.560 Fed Reserve Vice Chair of Philip Jefferson making some comments 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.640 and cautioning on risks to inflations, to inflation. 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:12.960 And job goals. 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.560 There are FED voices that matter more than most, and 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:17.319 we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them. 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.160 What about mister Jefferson. 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.960 Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair, 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.559 he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.679 disagreement with j Powell. And so if that's where he is, 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:30.040 that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.320 when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:37.000 vice chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:40.800 us that basically the FED is on board with another 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.040 rate cut, because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting. 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.120 The question is is it October or December. Most people 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:50.200 in the markets think it'll be October, and without data, 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.679 the general feeling seems to be well, that doesn't give 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:56.680 them a reason to change their mind. Now, it could 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:00.520 give them a reason to wait, yeah, and see what happens. 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:02.720 But I think what we have to do is wait 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:04.720 until we get closer to the end of the month 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.240 the meeting's on the twenty ninth of October, and then 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.280 start judging what FED people are saying. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.760 Speaking of changing one's mind, and I do want to 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.160 go back to Steve Myron for a moment from the 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.280 conversation that you had this morning with the team on 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:19.480 Bloomberg TV and radio. 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:21.360 Is it fair to. 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.240 Say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:24.240 of come across that way? 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:29.000 Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:33.640 back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:37.400 saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:42.080 base being based more on forecasts than on past data. 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.439 So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:49.040 in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.720 But his view is that the economy is going to slow, 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:54.120 that the labor market is going to slow, and that 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.960 inflation is also going to come down, and therefore you 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.880 could cut rates, and you should cut rates more quickly 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.320 because you don't want the economy to weaken too much. 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.440 But again it's all based on forecasts as opposed to 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:06.880 prior data. 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.960 We know that he's on leave from the job of 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.920 chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. You and 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:17.839 the team asked about input from the president. What did 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.560 he tell you when it comes to not just whether 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.360 or not always had an interview to be the FED chair, 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.800 but if he's ever been asked by the President to 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:27.720 actually take a specific policy action. 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:29.600 Well, he gave this the same answer that he has 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.240 given other people, that he has not heard from the 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.679 President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.160 him a call to congratulate him, but did not ask 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:40.400 him to do anything particular. And he says since then 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:44.360 he hasn't heard from mister Trump and that the President 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.520 has never asked him to take a particular position. On 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.439 the other hand, you know, if mom told you a 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.800 couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.280 she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.360 the message, and having to say it, I think Carol 0:13:58.360 --> 0:13:59.760 would agree totally. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:05.200 You can alway, yes, yes, we did get some data. Well, 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:07.000 you know, first I want to say in terms of 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:08.440 jobs day that we've gotten so far. 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.079 You know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.520 blind without the monthly job's date or the government shut 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.599 down and not getting government data on the US economy. 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:21.120 Are we completely flying blind? Or do those private reports 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.560 and the different reports, including ism that we got today 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.880 still help form a fair picture of the US economy. 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.480 They give you a sort of pointless picture of the economy, 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:36.880 you know, it's not sharply defined. But there's a lot 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.280 of private data out there now, more and more all 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.680 the time. Revellio Labs is a new one out there. 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:45.960 They were out today saying sixty thousand jobs in the 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.520 month of September. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg was fifty 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:54.280 three thousand. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.800 thirty two thousand, so they're in a different ballpark. They're 0:14:56.800 --> 0:15:01.640 playing in away game, different ballpark altogether. But in general, 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:05.360 you get the idea that this is what's happening in 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:09.920 the economy. And remember that whatever the first Jobs report 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.720 number is, it's going to be revised and the FED 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:14.880 knows that as well, so they have a lot of 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.360 their own data sources that they use to try to 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:18.400 figure out what's going on. 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.400 Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:24.440 not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job, 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:25.960 and he gave an interesting answer. 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:26.240 I thought. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.360 He said, the FED uses that data, but they're not 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.280 making decisions each and every day. What did you make 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:31.440 of that? 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:36.320 Well, the market is always moving rates around because of 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.360 the latest data or the latest thing that happens to 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:44.400 a particular company, and the FED just every six weeks, 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.360 and so they look at what all the data up 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:48.200 to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.360 their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:56.440 ADDP data, and they manipulate it their own ways. Statistically, 0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:00.640 they don't do what ADP does with the Stanford Lab 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.760 to come up with the numbers that we get from them. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.760 So they have their own views on what we're seeing. 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.400 And as I've noted before, right now, given all the 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:15.480 problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic, 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:19.440 right the FED officials are leaning much more on their 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:24.160 conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening to get 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:24.680 an idea. 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.400 Hey, twenty seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:28.080 we didn't get to it. 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.240 The Swift measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:31.960 do we need to know? 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:32.560 Real quickly? 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.520 I found it had a good beat and I could 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:38.360 dance to it, which is a joke I used before, 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:42.200 and Carol got it. She's been around like me for 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.720 a while. It looks like about fifty to fifty on 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:48.320 the internet. Some people like it, some people don't like it. 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:52.680 But it's the most streamed album ever, so it tells 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.600 you that that's going to make some money, which is 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.200 good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift. 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.520 And great for the tailor economy as well. Michael McKey, 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:00.400 thank you so much. 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.440 us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.919 this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.119 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.680 We want to stay on the jobs report the US economy. 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:18.720 We want to see what she and her team at 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.320 LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrose, She's chief 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:22.240 economist at LinkedIn. 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:22.760 Out there in. 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:26.480 Study Vale California. Karen, you guys have such a great 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.520 vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.639 us what you are seeing on the platform when it 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:33.400 comes to the US labor market. 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.080 Yeah, so great to be here. Thanks for having me. 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:39.480 One of the things we're seeing right now is an 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:45.640 incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.639 our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.840 three and a half percent on the month and nearly 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.680 nine percent on the year, So we continue to see 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.280 hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.400 an economic recession, but we're definitely looking out a hiring recession, 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:05.000 if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:07.720 that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:12.600 also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very, 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:16.119 very slow, and a lot of that has to do 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.520 with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:21.920 see that quits by our own measures, people aren't leaving 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:23.639 their jobs by as much as they were in the past, 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:26.680 but they're applying to more jobs and having less success. 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.359 So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:30.399 out there than it was before. 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:32.919 Can we go so far too to say employers are 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.560 still hoarding workers as well, Karen, Can you guys get 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:37.240 a feel on that as well. That's something that we've 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.920 certainly seen out of the pandemic, when folks who are 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.840 just you know, dying to get workers in and it 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:45.800 was hard, it was a very tight labor for so 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.680 they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will, 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:50.439 in this environment to kind of let folks go. 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:51.600 Do you see signs of that? 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.040 I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So 0:18:56.359 --> 0:19:00.000 on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.840 want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:08.159 the doors. And on the other side, the employers aren't 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:12.240 yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:15.119 in force in the private sector, not to any great degree. 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:18.040 When you look at the data that's out on jolts, 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:19.639