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Speaker 2: now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages
Speaker 2: captured in that October seventh attack, but said the rest
Speaker 2: of President Donald Trump's twenty point peace plan would be
Speaker 2: subject to negotiation.
Speaker 3: Let's get the latest on that.
Speaker 2: For that, we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior
Speaker 2: Defense alys Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, This feels like
Speaker 2: a big development, but again with caveats, walk us through
Speaker 2: what's significant and what's still to be known.
Speaker 4: Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at
Speaker 4: all at this point in time is good, right, It's
Speaker 4: showing that from Hamas's side is Hey, look, we need
Speaker 4: to come to the table with more than just with
Speaker 4: more than just rhetoric. We actually have to put action
Speaker 4: to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump
Speaker 4: put out is something that he's holding to, and I
Speaker 4: mean he's said what he was planning on doing, if
Speaker 4: not right, unleashing all hell on against Hamas. So they
Speaker 4: are taking it seriously. But at the same time, they
Speaker 4: do recognize that they're not able to just go ahead
Speaker 4: and submit to all twenty twenty of those. So I
Speaker 4: think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical
Speaker 4: play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out
Speaker 4: how to reach I don't know whether they're going to
Speaker 4: go to all twenty and then it's really going to
Speaker 4: be back into President Trump's hands.
Speaker 5: Where do you yeah, other parts of the President's twenty
Speaker 5: point plan require a unified national stance and must be
Speaker 5: addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does
Speaker 5: it seem like to you. I don't want to call
Speaker 5: them sticking points, because the twenty point plan is very
Speaker 5: deep tilled, but based on the statement that we got
Speaker 5: from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not
Speaker 5: agreeing to at this point and why?
Speaker 4: I think I think some of the points that are
Speaker 4: really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership
Speaker 4: as part of it, right, They realized that inside that
Speaker 4: region when you're looking at what what countries are going
Speaker 4: to go towards towards in backing the US and President
Speaker 4: Trump's plan, and then which ones may not. You know,
Speaker 4: there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in the here.
Speaker 4: Likely with Trump is going to be UAE, It's going
Speaker 4: to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are
Speaker 4: other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also
Speaker 4: not with President Trump as well. And that's like guitar
Speaker 4: and Aman and Kuwait. They all playing different plays in this, right.
Speaker 4: So I think the sticking point is making sure that
Speaker 4: if if AMAS is coming to the table, what how
Speaker 4: is it going to be felt within the region from
Speaker 4: the Gulf states that may there still may try to
Speaker 4: get out of their side.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, and.
Speaker 2: The relationships are so tricky here, right, like trying to
Speaker 2: understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that,
Speaker 2: I mean my understanding that I think we were talking
Speaker 2: to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground
Speaker 2: about was it on Monday and that there were still
Speaker 2: things going off in Gaza.
Speaker 5: Yeah, as he was talking to us, we were hearing ordinance, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: And so it's just it's very tricky, it's very delicate,
Speaker 2: and I'm just curious where Israel is in all of this,
Speaker 2: and I guess we're going to be watching them very
Speaker 2: closely here.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's
Speaker 4: a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel
Speaker 4: that that Hamas has actually come to the table and
Speaker 4: has met those demands, right, So they're not going to
Speaker 4: back off. I mean, at the most they would probably
Speaker 4: do is they would hold the positions that they currently have.
Speaker 4: But if there are military strikes based off of, you know,
Speaker 4: credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership as
Speaker 4: of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right,
Speaker 4: they have not agreed to the twenty So therefore then
Speaker 4: they consider it fair game as part of their offensive
Speaker 4: operations that they have said that they were going to do.
Speaker 4: They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen,
Speaker 4: and so if they're still going to conduct that through that.
Speaker 4: We saw that even in Israel Iran when when that
Speaker 4: was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when
Speaker 4: President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and
Speaker 4: here's kind of the date, we're going to put this
Speaker 4: line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran
Speaker 4: still continuing to fire at each other right up until
Speaker 4: that last minute. So I bet this is part of that.
Speaker 2: All Right, I'm going to be silly here, but we
Speaker 2: are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to
Speaker 2: say that. And Bloomberg is a whole story on this,
Speaker 2: So I feel it's very credible, Wayne, But we have
Speaker 2: a story. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is
Speaker 2: applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing
Speaker 2: of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize
Speaker 2: is going to be Is it announced next week or
Speaker 2: very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all
Speaker 2: of this. Is it silly to even bring it up.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I
Speaker 4: mean might be in the back of the mind. I
Speaker 4: mean you heard during his conference with Secretary Hegsath and
Speaker 4: all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he
Speaker 4: brought that up. He goes, they're not going to give
Speaker 4: it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about
Speaker 4: you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it
Speaker 4: to me. They're going to give it to somebody else,
Speaker 4: but it was something that he did still bring up,
Speaker 4: So I think that is something that is out there.
Speaker 4: Otherwise I don't think he would have brought it up
Speaker 4: in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: And we should say the winner is going to be
Speaker 2: announced on October ten, So it is just around the corner.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The President told the UN General Assembly last week that
Speaker 5: everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing
Speaker 5: that he and the US never received any credit for
Speaker 5: striking Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3: More importantly, I think about not silly.
Speaker 2: Is this going to bring real peace to this part
Speaker 2: of the Middle East and really bring an end to
Speaker 2: a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas
Speaker 2: that has gone on for so long.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a really, really tough one, one that is
Speaker 4: way above my pay grade. I only say that just
Speaker 4: from the standpoint is there is so much history, so
Speaker 4: much of their cultures that have been tied to this
Speaker 4: for thousands of years. This isn't you know. This is
Speaker 4: a new thing that's kind of coming up. So I
Speaker 4: have a hard time believing that they ever are going
Speaker 4: to completely just want to be at peace with one another.
Speaker 4: But I think that if least you can create some
Speaker 4: you know, strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that
Speaker 4: may at least provide some resolving piece over at least
Speaker 4: the near term.
Speaker 5: Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from
Speaker 5: just outside of Washington, d C.
Speaker 3: And Bald's a power with Joe Matthew.
Speaker 2: We'll have more on all of this, the ins and
Speaker 2: outs of all of the news out of the nation's
Speaker 2: capital coming up at five pm Wall Street time, and
Speaker 2: of course the latest on what we are hearing on
Speaker 2: this Humas agreement.
Speaker 3: It seems like saying it agrees.
Speaker 2: To release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement.
Speaker 3: All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that.
Speaker 5: Stay with us. More Fromloomberg Business Week Daily coming up
Speaker 5: after this.
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Speaker 2: Normally we would be talking about this being jobs Friday.
Speaker 2: You know that's not the case because of the US
Speaker 2: government shutdown, So we are leaning on other data points
Speaker 2: and voices for clues on the labor market, and that
Speaker 2: includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member
Speaker 2: of the FED Board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. One of the things he stressed that
Speaker 2: he may just be data dependent after all, just like
Speaker 2: Fitchair J.
Speaker 3: Powell.
Speaker 6: So my view is driven by two things. Sheltered sorry
Speaker 6: services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation.
Speaker 6: Services are driven in large part by housing, and I
Speaker 6: expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If
Speaker 6: something were to happen that were to tell me that
Speaker 6: that channel is in validate, that there's some shock that's
Speaker 6: going to be pushing rints materially higher, the benign inflation
Speaker 6: forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as
Speaker 6: a result.
Speaker 5: That's FED Governor Stephen Myrin earlier today on Bloomberg Television
Speaker 5: also Sheriff President Trump's Council and Economic Advisors on leave,
Speaker 5: though from that job now FED Governor. As we mentioned,
Speaker 5: Michael McKee part of the team that did that interview.
Speaker 5: He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio
Speaker 5: International Economics and Policy correspondent. He joins us here in
Speaker 5: the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. So we're going to talk about
Speaker 5: him being data dependent in just a second, but I
Speaker 5: want to stick on this idea of shelter as it
Speaker 5: relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis, What
Speaker 5: is his theory that that part of inflation will start
Speaker 5: to ease.
Speaker 7: Well, the theory is that because they are removing so
Speaker 7: many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce
Speaker 7: demand for housing, and that will bring down the price
Speaker 7: of housing because more houses will be available to those
Speaker 7: who are still here. It's based on a study that
Speaker 7: was done in two thousand and three about the Marial
Speaker 7: boat lift in Miami, which found that there was sort
Speaker 7: of a one to one relationship there between removal and
Speaker 7: prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a
Speaker 7: tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is
Speaker 7: a rule that will apply in the future. But that's
Speaker 7: his story and that's what his belief is in terms
Speaker 7: of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation.
Speaker 5: Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the FED too,
Speaker 5: actually effect and Fetcher J. Powell has talked about this
Speaker 5: for years.
Speaker 1: Mike.
Speaker 5: He said, given the tools that we have we can
Speaker 5: only do so much when it comes to shelter prices,
Speaker 5: and in fact, he's talked about that being more of
Speaker 5: a policy issue in the past than it is about
Speaker 5: being part of the FEDS to a mandate.
Speaker 7: Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the
Speaker 7: problem for housing is that there's not enough supply, and
Speaker 7: a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations.
Speaker 7: In cities. You can always build out in the suburbs.
Speaker 7: Now you have to go to the exerbs, and you
Speaker 7: start to get so far away from people's jobs that
Speaker 7: they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing
Speaker 7: in the more central areas, which means you need more density,
Speaker 7: and that's a big fight always, So that is a
Speaker 7: policy problem. The other problem is that the FED controls
Speaker 7: short rates, and so if you are worried about mortgage rates,
Speaker 7: that they're going to be much more closely tied to
Speaker 7: long treasuries like the ten year, and that's going to
Speaker 7: be priced by the markets in what they think of
Speaker 7: inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why
Speaker 7: people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation
Speaker 7: through housing.
Speaker 2: Three or four houses for Salem, my I block. So
Speaker 2: there's definitely some supply that I am seeing. And I
Speaker 2: remember actually a voice this week on surveillance with Tom
Speaker 2: and Paul that they talked in the morning about No,
Speaker 2: there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm a
Speaker 2: little confused. I want to move on to another FED voice,
Speaker 2: Fed Reserve Vice Chair of Philip Jefferson making some comments
Speaker 2: and cautioning on risks to inflations, to inflation.
Speaker 3: And job goals.
Speaker 2: There are FED voices that matter more than most, and
Speaker 2: we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them.
Speaker 3: What about mister Jefferson.
Speaker 7: Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair,
Speaker 7: he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible
Speaker 7: disagreement with j Powell. And so if that's where he is,
Speaker 7: that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing
Speaker 7: when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the
Speaker 7: vice chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells
Speaker 7: us that basically the FED is on board with another
Speaker 7: rate cut, because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting.
Speaker 7: The question is is it October or December. Most people
Speaker 7: in the markets think it'll be October, and without data,
Speaker 7: the general feeling seems to be well, that doesn't give
Speaker 7: them a reason to change their mind. Now, it could
Speaker 7: give them a reason to wait, yeah, and see what happens.
Speaker 7: But I think what we have to do is wait
Speaker 7: until we get closer to the end of the month
Speaker 7: the meeting's on the twenty ninth of October, and then
Speaker 7: start judging what FED people are saying.
Speaker 2: Speaking of changing one's mind, and I do want to
Speaker 2: go back to Steve Myron for a moment from the
Speaker 2: conversation that you had this morning with the team on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 3: Is it fair to.
Speaker 2: Say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind
Speaker 2: of come across that way?
Speaker 7: Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data
Speaker 7: back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's
Speaker 7: saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more
Speaker 7: base being based more on forecasts than on past data.
Speaker 7: So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong
Speaker 7: in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet.
Speaker 7: But his view is that the economy is going to slow,
Speaker 7: that the labor market is going to slow, and that
Speaker 7: inflation is also going to come down, and therefore you
Speaker 7: could cut rates, and you should cut rates more quickly
Speaker 7: because you don't want the economy to weaken too much.
Speaker 7: But again it's all based on forecasts as opposed to
Speaker 7: prior data.
Speaker 5: We know that he's on leave from the job of
Speaker 5: chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. You and
Speaker 5: the team asked about input from the president. What did
Speaker 5: he tell you when it comes to not just whether
Speaker 5: or not always had an interview to be the FED chair,
Speaker 5: but if he's ever been asked by the President to
Speaker 5: actually take a specific policy action.
Speaker 7: Well, he gave this the same answer that he has
Speaker 7: given other people, that he has not heard from the
Speaker 7: President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave
Speaker 7: him a call to congratulate him, but did not ask
Speaker 7: him to do anything particular. And he says since then
Speaker 7: he hasn't heard from mister Trump and that the President
Speaker 7: has never asked him to take a particular position. On
Speaker 7: the other hand, you know, if mom told you a
Speaker 7: couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and
Speaker 7: she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get
Speaker 7: the message, and having to say it, I think Carol
Speaker 7: would agree totally.
Speaker 3: You can alway, yes, yes, we did get some data. Well,
Speaker 3: you know, first I want to say in terms of
Speaker 3: jobs day that we've gotten so far.
Speaker 2: You know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying
Speaker 2: blind without the monthly job's date or the government shut
Speaker 2: down and not getting government data on the US economy.
Speaker 2: Are we completely flying blind? Or do those private reports
Speaker 2: and the different reports, including ism that we got today
Speaker 2: still help form a fair picture of the US economy.
Speaker 7: They give you a sort of pointless picture of the economy,
Speaker 7: you know, it's not sharply defined. But there's a lot
Speaker 7: of private data out there now, more and more all
Speaker 7: the time. Revellio Labs is a new one out there.
Speaker 7: They were out today saying sixty thousand jobs in the
Speaker 7: month of September. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg was fifty
Speaker 7: three thousand. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative
Speaker 7: thirty two thousand, so they're in a different ballpark. They're
Speaker 7: playing in away game, different ballpark altogether. But in general,
Speaker 7: you get the idea that this is what's happening in
Speaker 7: the economy. And remember that whatever the first Jobs report
Speaker 7: number is, it's going to be revised and the FED
Speaker 7: knows that as well, so they have a lot of
Speaker 7: their own data sources that they use to try to
Speaker 7: figure out what's going on.
Speaker 5: Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or
Speaker 5: not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job,
Speaker 5: and he gave an interesting answer.
Speaker 4: I thought.
Speaker 5: He said, the FED uses that data, but they're not
Speaker 5: making decisions each and every day. What did you make
Speaker 5: of that?
Speaker 7: Well, the market is always moving rates around because of
Speaker 7: the latest data or the latest thing that happens to
Speaker 7: a particular company, and the FED just every six weeks,
Speaker 7: and so they look at what all the data up
Speaker 7: to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have
Speaker 7: their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw
Speaker 7: ADDP data, and they manipulate it their own ways. Statistically,
Speaker 7: they don't do what ADP does with the Stanford Lab
Speaker 7: to come up with the numbers that we get from them.
Speaker 7: So they have their own views on what we're seeing.
Speaker 7: And as I've noted before, right now, given all the
Speaker 7: problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic,
Speaker 7: right the FED officials are leaning much more on their
Speaker 7: conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening to get
Speaker 7: an idea.
Speaker 3: Hey, twenty seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe
Speaker 3: we didn't get to it.
Speaker 2: The Swift measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what
Speaker 2: do we need to know?
Speaker 3: Real quickly?
Speaker 7: I found it had a good beat and I could
Speaker 7: dance to it, which is a joke I used before,
Speaker 7: and Carol got it. She's been around like me for
Speaker 7: a while. It looks like about fifty to fifty on
Speaker 7: the internet. Some people like it, some people don't like it.
Speaker 7: But it's the most streamed album ever, so it tells
Speaker 7: you that that's going to make some money, which is
Speaker 7: good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift.
Speaker 2: And great for the tailor economy as well. Michael McKey,
Speaker 2: thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: We want to stay on the jobs report the US economy.
Speaker 2: We want to see what she and her team at
Speaker 2: LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrose, She's chief
Speaker 2: economist at LinkedIn.
Speaker 3: Out there in.
Speaker 2: Study Vale California. Karen, you guys have such a great
Speaker 2: vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell
Speaker 2: us what you are seeing on the platform when it
Speaker 2: comes to the US labor market.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so great to be here. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 8: One of the things we're seeing right now is an
Speaker 8: incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by
Speaker 8: our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month
Speaker 8: three and a half percent on the month and nearly
Speaker 8: nine percent on the year, So we continue to see
Speaker 8: hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at
Speaker 8: an economic recession, but we're definitely looking out a hiring recession,
Speaker 8: if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things
Speaker 8: that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but
Speaker 8: also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very,
Speaker 8: very slow, and a lot of that has to do
Speaker 8: with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We
Speaker 8: see that quits by our own measures, people aren't leaving
Speaker 8: their jobs by as much as they were in the past,
Speaker 8: but they're applying to more jobs and having less success.
Speaker 8: So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market
Speaker 8: out there than it was before.
Speaker 2: Can we go so far too to say employers are
Speaker 2: still hoarding workers as well, Karen, Can you guys get
Speaker 2: a feel on that as well. That's something that we've
Speaker 2: certainly seen out of the pandemic, when folks who are
Speaker 2: just you know, dying to get workers in and it
Speaker 2: was hard, it was a very tight labor for so
Speaker 2: they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will,
Speaker 2: in this environment to kind of let folks go.
Speaker 3: Do you see signs of that?
Speaker 8: I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So
Speaker 8: on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really
Speaker 8: want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for
Speaker 8: the doors. And on the other side, the employers aren't
Speaker 8: yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions
Speaker 8: in force in the private sector, not to any great degree.
Speaker 8: When you look at the data that's out on jolts,
Speaker 8: or you look at the data that is, you know,
Speaker 8: in our own labor market data set here at LinkedIn,
Speaker 8: we don't see elevated layoffs. So I do think employers
Speaker 8: are kind of holding on to the talent they have.
Speaker 8: They are definitely looking to refresh it where they can,
Speaker 8: but they're being very cautious about it.
Speaker 5: You know, LinkedIn data only goes back so far, so
Speaker 5: maybe there isn't a time when we can compare this
Speaker 5: to Karen in recent years. But I'm wondering if what
Speaker 5: this looks like at as far as other parts of
Speaker 5: the economy or other parts of economic history, like, is
Speaker 5: there a historical parallel you could draw as to where
Speaker 5: we are in the cycle right now?
Speaker 8: Well, for us, that's right, We typically like to go
Speaker 8: back to around twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen in our data
Speaker 8: to where we feel confident that we can say something.
Speaker 8: But when we look at the hiring rate right now
Speaker 8: being so slow, so much lower than even last year,
Speaker 8: twenty percent below the pre pandemic levels, I would say
Speaker 8: hiring is as low as it's been since like twenty
Speaker 8: thirteen right now. So it is a really, really kind
Speaker 8: of slumbering labor market with not a lot of movement.
Speaker 8: And I think one of the factors is that we
Speaker 8: just don't have that churn. We're not seeing people quit,
Speaker 8: we're not seeing people laid off, which is a great thing.
Speaker 8: I'm glad about that, but it means that when people
Speaker 8: don't leave their job, there's no vacancy to backfill democratic
Speaker 8: things are very slow.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm curious, Karen, demographic differences, industry difference is
Speaker 2: geographic differences, any color that you can give us on that.
Speaker 8: Demographically speaking, we definitely see that hiring is extremely punishing
Speaker 8: for those entry level workers. So young grads who are
Speaker 8: coming out with a college degree, their hiring rate is
Speaker 8: twice as slow as everyone else is. So if I
Speaker 8: told you that on average entry level workers, maybe without
Speaker 8: a college degree, you're running a little bit slower than
Speaker 8: the average worker. Those entry level workers with a college
Speaker 8: degree are running far, far slower.
Speaker 5: Where are people getting jobs and where are they not
Speaker 5: getting jobs?
Speaker 8: So people are definitely getting jobs if they work in
Speaker 8: the skilled trades, you know, master electrician, plumber, pipe fitter,
Speaker 8: if you're working in commercial construction, because there's a lot
Speaker 8: of activity. You think about the plants that are being built,
Speaker 8: utilities and electrical grids that are being expanded, there's a
Speaker 8: lot of demand for construction work there. There's also a
Speaker 8: lot of hiring, believe or not going on in the
Speaker 8: financial sector. We're seeing it in education, We're seeing it
Speaker 8: still in healthcare. So there are definitely pockets where people
Speaker 8: are getting hired but where we're not seeing as much
Speaker 8: momentum is sometimes in that middle space of either entry
Speaker 8: level workers in the white collar space, or if you
Speaker 8: think about some of the tech jobs are starting to
Speaker 8: rotate away from classic coding requirements and looking for different skills,
Speaker 8: and so that's causing a change in who's getting hired
Speaker 8: in tech companies.
Speaker 2: So might say a Harvard trade school maybe makes sense then,
Speaker 2: after all, which certainly relates to a story that we
Speaker 2: talked about earlier in the week.
Speaker 3: Karen, so great to get time with you. We look
Speaker 3: forward to maybe.
Speaker 2: Next month or sooner, and maybe we'll actually have a
Speaker 2: monthly jobs data to also reave into the conversation. Karen Kimbro,
Speaker 2: chief economist at LinkedIn from Sunnyvale, California.
Speaker 5: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
Speaker 5: up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekday afternoons from two to five. Yes during it,
Speaker 1: listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: As you know, no monthly jobs report. We have talked
Speaker 2: about that a lot. I will point out though, in
Speaker 2: the last Monthly Jobs report for the government. We did
Speaker 2: get that out last month showed hiring in the US
Speaker 2: healthcare sector looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for
Speaker 2: the economy given its importance as a key driver of
Speaker 2: job growth over the last three years. Now, tim healthcare
Speaker 2: and social assistance companies added about forty seven thousand employees
Speaker 2: to payrolls.
Speaker 3: That was in August, and that is the last month
Speaker 3: that we have data for according to the BLS look.
Speaker 5: And we just spoke to Karen Kimbrow, a chief economist
Speaker 5: over at LinkedIn, and she said the same thing that
Speaker 5: they're seeing some strength when it comes to some areas,
Speaker 5: including jobs like construction jobs like electrician, master plumber, but
Speaker 5: also in the healthcare sector, still seeing hiring there exactly.
Speaker 2: So let's get another view when it comes to healthcare jobs,
Speaker 2: specifically the nursing industry.
Speaker 3: Back with us.
Speaker 2: As doctor Yiman Abu zaid, she's co founder and CEO
Speaker 2: of Incredible Health. It's a career marketplace for connecting hospitals
Speaker 2: to nursing talents who she has a good view on
Speaker 2: all of this.
Speaker 3: She is here in studio. Nice to have you here.
Speaker 3: How are you.
Speaker 7: I'm doing well.
Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 3: Great to have you here.
Speaker 2: We are without the latest monthly jobs report, so we're
Speaker 2: trying to kind of read the tea leaves and talk
Speaker 2: to lots of folks.
Speaker 3: Talk to us about supply and demand for nurses in
Speaker 3: the US. What are you seeing.
Speaker 9: We're still seeing a strong demand for healthcare in healthcare hiring,
Speaker 9: the number of jobs are in healthcare are increasing, but
Speaker 9: it's happening at a lower rate than it was before. Why, Like,
Speaker 9: most likely changes to the economy and the macroeconomic changes
Speaker 9: that we're facing as a country. So the other big
Speaker 9: reason is the Big Beautiful Bill does have Medicare and
Speaker 9: Medicaid reductions in it, which has slowed some a little
Speaker 9: bit of hiring in healthcare too.
Speaker 5: A lot of healthcare jobs not necessarily our end, but
Speaker 5: healthcare jobs are occupied in the US by people who
Speaker 5: were not born in the US. I don't know the
Speaker 5: data that you have on that on your platform, but
Speaker 5: I'm curious if you're seeing any of the immigration changes
Speaker 5: that we've seen during the Trump administration during the first
Speaker 5: few months of this administration affect the workforce on your platform.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so twenty percent of healthcare workers in the US
Speaker 9: were born out side of the US. So they do
Speaker 9: compose an important part of the healthcare workforce that's already here.
Speaker 9: To be honest, though, we're still with status quo with immigration.
Speaker 9: I mean honestly, since twenty sixteen, there's just been a
Speaker 9: huge slowdown in the number of healthcare workers entering the
Speaker 9: country as immigrants, and a lot of that just continues
Speaker 9: with every administration. We saw it with Biden, we're now
Speaker 9: seeing it with Trump, and so that just highlights the
Speaker 9: importance of US needing to take care of our domestic
Speaker 9: healthcare workforce.
Speaker 5: So what's the answer in your view? If it's been
Speaker 5: slowing down at this point for close to ten years,
Speaker 5: then what's the right way to approach this?
Speaker 3: The best way to.
Speaker 9: Approach is to keep increasing the number of healthcare workers
Speaker 9: in the US by encouraging more and more Americans to
Speaker 9: go into healthcare. We also have to remove the ball
Speaker 9: next in healthcare, including the nursing short the nursing school shortages,
Speaker 9: the technician school shortages, and increasing the training programs that
Speaker 9: are available for Americans.
Speaker 5: So, okay, I've talked to some doctors about this, friends
Speaker 5: of mine, and they give me these numbers that are
Speaker 5: just mind bogglingly small, Like some specialties only graduate like
Speaker 5: three or four different residents per year in some schools,
Speaker 5: and like it's an incredibly small number. So that seems
Speaker 5: to be structural. But as you move down from actual mds,
Speaker 5: is it easier to increase the number, because it doesn't
Speaker 5: seem like it's easy to increase the number of doctors
Speaker 5: in this country with the way the system is structured.
Speaker 3: That's exactly right.
Speaker 9: The way the system is currently structured, it is very
Speaker 9: difficult for us as a country to increase the number
Speaker 9: of healthcare workers that we desperately need. And healthcare still
Speaker 9: remains the biggest labor shortage in the country, with the
Speaker 9: demand continuing to increase from patients getting older, but not
Speaker 9: enough healthcare workers in the system.
Speaker 2: Wait so cost, lack of places to educate folks, or
Speaker 2: lack of desire for people to want to do it.
Speaker 3: I mean, I know folks who are doctors, and I think, Timy, you.
Speaker 2: And I talk about this a lot, who don't necessarily
Speaker 2: love it.
Speaker 3: And then there is the demographic.
Speaker 2: Side where I know, I've had doctors in my life
Speaker 2: for years who have recently retired and we're scrambling to
Speaker 2: find new doctors. What is like the key metric that
Speaker 2: is our cost? Like, what is it that is really
Speaker 2: preventing folks from going into the profession.
Speaker 9: It's really just the ballnecks we have in our system.
Speaker 9: There is a desire from Americans to become healthcare workers.
Speaker 9: It's a key way to change your socioeconomic status. But
Speaker 9: we have ballnecks on hiring, on educating and on training
Speaker 9: the healthcare workers.
Speaker 3: Why do we have bottlenecks if we need them?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think honestly, there's a lot of experiences that
Speaker 9: we need to continue to improve. That's a lot where
Speaker 9: incredible health comes in. We're actually announcing our AI agents.
Speaker 9: So what we've done is really ushered in a new
Speaker 9: era of healthcare hiring that can be done with AI
Speaker 9: agents to really improve the experience of healthcare workers finding
Speaker 9: their dream jobs and pursuing their dream careers.
Speaker 5: So that's on the hiring side. What about on the
Speaker 5: actual taking care of patient's side and technology? There is
Speaker 5: there a way to ease the burden on these healthcare
Speaker 5: professionals using technology.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, healthcare is the one is one industry that is
Speaker 9: adopting AI technology that very fast, almost has as other
Speaker 9: industries which is unusual. Right in healthcare, we're seeing AI
Speaker 9: agents be used at the bedside, We're seeing AI scribes
Speaker 9: being used.
Speaker 5: So there are wed we've had experience with. Have you
Speaker 5: had a doctor with a scribe, but I've had a
Speaker 5: doctor with an AI scribe, I'm not sure. But apart
Speaker 5: from that, I mean, and that's really helpful to doctors
Speaker 5: when they're doing their notes. They probably don't have to
Speaker 5: spend as much time doing that, and maybe they can
Speaker 5: spend more time with patients.
Speaker 1: It's right.
Speaker 5: But beyond that is the technology to a place where
Speaker 5: you can trust it to make decisions that are going
Speaker 5: to lead to better outcomes for patients.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I believe that human connection still matters in healthcare,
Speaker 9: both the human connection the empathy piece. I don't think
Speaker 9: the jobs are necessarily going to be replaced with AI,
Speaker 9: but AI is being used to augment and support these
Speaker 9: healthcare workers who are generally an overworked and burnt out workforce.
Speaker 3: Do you see eventually a day I'm going to just
Speaker 3: go there?
Speaker 2: You know, as we continue to see like humanoids and robotics,
Speaker 2: but a combination of robots with some AI and somehow
Speaker 2: having a role.
Speaker 3: When it comes to American healthcare.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, I mean, we launched two AI agents, one named
Speaker 9: Gail and one name Lynd.
Speaker 3: Gail is a.
Speaker 9: Career partner for healthcare workers, a lifelong career partner that
Speaker 9: helps them generate resumes, that helps them with interview preparation,
Speaker 9: helps them do MALK interviews, and over ninety percent of
Speaker 9: nurses give it a thumbs up in terms of giving
Speaker 9: it having a great experience, as well as referring it
Speaker 9: to their friends. And then also Lynn is another AI
Speaker 9: agent we have which is a co pilot for the
Speaker 9: hiring teams. And so Lynn is now interviewing healthcare workers
Speaker 9: and is selling them on the organization, discussing multiple jobs
Speaker 9: with them and really sharing what's amazing about specific employers.
Speaker 2: Oh what I really mean, just got about thirty seconds
Speaker 2: the idea of an actual robot with AI and learning
Speaker 2: and in a hospital helping out.
Speaker 9: I mean absolutely, I mean I think the future that's
Speaker 9: where we're all headed, not just in.
Speaker 3: Healthcare, probably in other industries too.
Speaker 2: No, not for journalists for broadcast. Good to catch up
Speaker 2: with you, Thank you so much, and great to have
Speaker 2: you in studio.
Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1: Appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Take care, Doctor Eymon Abbozage. She's kept founder, chief executive
Speaker 2: officer of Incredible Health.
Speaker 3: Right here in studio.
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