Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
Speaker 1: show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise guys
Speaker 1: pay attention. I am Chadmoman. I am joined by my bff,
Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my co host, Professional Better, Simon
Speaker 1: Hunter Ellos.
Speaker 2: Simon Chad. How we doing, brother, my brother?
Speaker 1: As you know, on Tuesday, I was recording the show
Speaker 1: from my hotel in the city of Brotherly Love. Today
Speaker 1: I'm recording from a different hotel on the outskirts, the
Speaker 1: very very far outskirts of Pittsburgh, PA. On Tuesday, I
Speaker 1: had a beautiful view of City Hall, that magnificent building
Speaker 1: right in the center of Philadelphia in center City. Today
Speaker 1: I have a view of the waffle House across a
Speaker 1: five lane highway. That is the journey that I am
Speaker 1: on during this book. This is our Thursday, Week twelve episode.
Speaker 1: We're going to narrow down the options on our quest
Speaker 1: to find our five favorite picks. We're inching our way closer. Reminder,
Speaker 1: subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pots, Spotify, wherever
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Listen before we get going. We
Speaker 1: love Mike Tomlin on this show. We just think he's
Speaker 1: amazing and has done so much and provided so much
Speaker 1: entertainment over the years. He did it again this week
Speaker 1: when he was asked about how he would talk to
Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey and his response of going after Jamar Chase
Speaker 1: after Jamar Chase spit in Jalen Ramsey's face, Mike Tomlin
Speaker 1: had a classic Mike Tomlin answer. Let's roll it.
Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell, I'd have no message of someone spits in
Speaker 2: your face. Google comes natural.
Speaker 3: Hey, everybody, producer, Matt Mitchell here, I'm sorry to jump in.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to call out this episode might sound
Speaker 3: a little bit off from an audio standpoint. Chad is traveling,
Speaker 3: apparently in some flophouse outside of Pittsburgh, and there were
Speaker 3: guys blowing the lead thieves in Simon Hunter's yard for
Speaker 3: over seventy five minutes, So shout out for those guys.
Speaker 3: Definitely getting paid by the hour in the interest of
Speaker 3: cleaning up that episode, so it didn't sound like you
Speaker 3: were enjoying it. From inside a seven forty seven engine,
Speaker 3: it'll sound a little bit strange, but at least you
Speaker 3: can hear everything just fine, and everything looks okay, so
Speaker 3: again I want to apologize. We'll get ched back into
Speaker 3: his house and had this ready to go on Sunday.
Speaker 3: So thank you for joining us and for bearing with us.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we
Speaker 1: give out our picks. Every week, Simon's fellow program Gambler's
Speaker 1: call to yell at him about those picks. He's going
Speaker 1: to summarize those opinions for us. Right now, it's time
Speaker 1: for sharp calls.
Speaker 4: I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain,
Speaker 4: telephone ring.
Speaker 1: Somebody say it maybe what to do?
Speaker 4: Man?
Speaker 2: Yeah, for a game. I totally disagree on it. I'm
Speaker 2: on the bills.
Speaker 4: I love Houston tonight, So I know we're not really
Speaker 4: going to talk much about that one. Haven't flipped me,
Speaker 4: but I just I'm just not gonna put as much
Speaker 4: money in the buffalo. I just know a lot of
Speaker 4: really smart groups that I've had Houston at plus six,
Speaker 4: they just really like this number in the spot for them.
Speaker 4: I just I can't get there. I can't trust Davis
Speaker 4: Mills my money again. So I don't know where you're
Speaker 4: at with that one, but I just.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely going to be on Houston at plus six
Speaker 1: I just I love this defense so much. I can't
Speaker 1: quit this defense. And I feel like I'm looking at
Speaker 1: a Bills team that just had a miracle game, and
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the Bucks in a little bit.
Speaker 1: A miracle game against the Bucks. So they went from
Speaker 1: one down to winning by twelve and Josh Allen, you know,
Speaker 1: played Superman on a short week. I like the Texans
Speaker 1: in this spot. I think the number's gotten too big,
Speaker 1: all right, So that's Houston and Buffalo. You're on Buffalo,
Speaker 1: I'm on Houston. The wise guys are with me.
Speaker 2: What else?
Speaker 4: We got another game they're against me the Giants. Shockingly.
Speaker 4: A lot of love for the Giants, but I think
Speaker 4: they're just missing a unique spot here, and they really
Speaker 4: are playing Russian Roulette con James two weeks in a row.
Speaker 4: So I just that's a game we can talk about
Speaker 4: some more.
Speaker 2: But we're going to get on Detroit. Good.
Speaker 1: I am too.
Speaker 4: Games that, you know, I think it's split both sides.
Speaker 4: I know tons of pros on the Chiefs. I'm on
Speaker 4: the Colts. I know tons of pros that really really
Speaker 4: like Minnesota. I'm on Green Bay. Another game, pretty split
Speaker 4: on Atlanta, New Orleans pros are really split on that
Speaker 4: one this week, and you know, we've talked a little
Speaker 4: bit about it the primetime games. La Bucks very split
Speaker 4: between the pros, and so is Carolina in Tampa.
Speaker 2: What I feel like a lot of people agree on
Speaker 2: is the love for Dallas. That's a game.
Speaker 4: I'm sure we're gonna dive more into all the pros.
Speaker 4: I feel like we're all over Dallas. I think the
Speaker 4: public shocking is joining them as well.
Speaker 2: Since the game we talked a little bit about.
Speaker 4: None of us knew Joe Burrow is gonna play, so
Speaker 4: that numbers moved, but the pros love that. For what
Speaker 4: I talked about, that was a huge spot to back
Speaker 4: since as long as we need that, we either Joe
Speaker 4: Burrow or Joe Flack, so that numbers really moved off
Speaker 4: professional money and you know, last but not least, Pittsburgh,
Speaker 4: we knew the program though we talked a little bit
Speaker 4: about it. You knew the three was going to last,
Speaker 4: so not too shocking. Tons of pros love for that one.
Speaker 4: So there are a lot of split games where there
Speaker 4: are just some sides where I feel like all the
Speaker 4: professionals all lined up.
Speaker 1: But take a lot of these dogs all right, Look,
Speaker 1: a lot of these games are games that we had
Speaker 1: talked about on Tuesday. We kind of had a feeling
Speaker 1: that they would play out and be in sharp calls
Speaker 1: and b games that we want to review today. One
Speaker 1: of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked
Speaker 1: a lot Seattle, which is now a thirteen and a
Speaker 1: half point favorite at Tennessee. We talked about it on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: We better on Tuesday. We bettered at twelve and a
Speaker 1: half on Tuesday. It's obviously moved up. To me, we
Speaker 1: can say that the perceived value is lost in this game.
Speaker 1: What is value when it's a twelve and a half
Speaker 1: point favorite and you like the favorite and that favorite
Speaker 1: is on the road. That's the reality is we're betting
Speaker 1: a huge favorite on the road against a team that
Speaker 1: has backdoor to the past two weeks. And I think
Speaker 1: my philosophy on this and why I like the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: and we both liked it from the second we saw
Speaker 1: the numbers on Sunday night, our Sunday night postgame show
Speaker 1: is the Chargers have fatal flaws. They got back door.
Speaker 1: The Texans have fatal flaws, especially offensively. They couldn't close
Speaker 1: out no matter how many opportunities they had, they couldn't
Speaker 1: close out that win and the cover on Sunday against
Speaker 1: the Titans. The Seahawks don't have those fatal flaws. And
Speaker 1: we're going to talk more about the Seahawks and the
Speaker 1: Rams and the Rams and the Bucks and sort of
Speaker 1: how to play these games later in the show. The
Speaker 1: Seahawks had their disastrous game and still almost won. They're
Speaker 1: just a dominant team. I can't see this defense giving
Speaker 1: up more than seven points. So I'm still gonna like
Speaker 1: the number at twelve and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, really good team, really well coached, and you know,
Speaker 4: there are some pros on the Titans. I just don't
Speaker 4: think it's like the other games where they're putting big,
Speaker 4: big money down on certain positions. Titans, they're better because
Speaker 4: they feel like they have to write. Like you said,
Speaker 4: they've been good to them. They've been back doing especially
Speaker 4: since the coaching changed. They've they've really covered a lot
Speaker 4: of spreads, which you know, we should have tooken advantage.
Speaker 4: He was that terrible of coach. I didn't realize he
Speaker 4: was that bad that he affected the number that much.
Speaker 4: But yeah, hard Rock here in Jersey's back to thirteen.
Speaker 2: So hard rock.
Speaker 4: They've taken obviously some professional money here. Hit it back
Speaker 4: down to thirteen. But like you said, I'm in on
Speaker 4: Seahawks at thirteen. I'm in on the twelve and a half.
Speaker 4: I just like the number, like the spot, and even
Speaker 4: in minus thirteen eight, if I had to take it
Speaker 4: under fourteen, I still would.
Speaker 2: But you talk all the time.
Speaker 4: We just don't take big spreads like this because you
Speaker 4: need a lot of things that go your way, right.
Speaker 2: You need to play really well and not to have.
Speaker 4: Bad bounces that just happens in football. So shocking that
Speaker 4: this is probably the number one and number two.
Speaker 2: Biggest bet of the week by the public, right by
Speaker 2: spread money line teasers. Everyone's just lined up with sholks.
Speaker 2: Everyone agrees with us.
Speaker 4: It's just like, this is a really well coached team
Speaker 4: does really well.
Speaker 2: In the ruin the cover a lot.
Speaker 4: So if you're scared off on this, I mean you're
Speaker 4: scared of the number, just put it on an our
Speaker 4: money line around Robin with the favorites, get it down
Speaker 4: to six and a half or five and a half
Speaker 4: if you need to the Seahawks. But I'm not too
Speaker 4: scared off of this number. I bet at this big number, uh.
Speaker 1: New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. You just mentioned
Speaker 1: this in sharp calls. This line has moved from ten
Speaker 1: and a half to ten. This was Simon says on
Speaker 1: Tuesday when it was at ten and a half. It's
Speaker 1: now gone the other direction. The Wise guys are like
Speaker 1: in the Giants. I don't get it, to be honest,
Speaker 1: this feels like the exact smash spot that you want
Speaker 1: to get in on the Lions. The Lions at home
Speaker 1: this year have been destroying bad competition, and you laid
Speaker 1: it out on Tuesday all the reasons why you want
Speaker 1: to back Dan Campbell and Jared Goff off of a loss,
Speaker 1: off of a bad loss, off of a bad loss
Speaker 1: on the road when they are getting back home. I
Speaker 1: loved betting Jamis on Sunday when we got back on
Speaker 1: the roller coaster. I don't like betting Jamis his second
Speaker 1: game where he's going into a much more challenging environment.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. Even though the Wise guys be
Speaker 1: in sharp calls they said they're betting on the Giants.
Speaker 1: You and I are aligned, my friend, we are on
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 4: Yeah and everyone. So if there's a little murmur in
Speaker 4: the background. Am getting my leaves done? I know there
Speaker 4: might be a little bit of noise.
Speaker 1: But you're so bougie.
Speaker 4: It is late fall here in the Northeast. Yeah, I
Speaker 4: just I get it. It's fun betting Jamis and the Giants.
Speaker 4: You expect them to able to pass the ball downfield
Speaker 4: against this banged up secondary that you know, the lines
Speaker 4: have been pretty suspect this season, but like you just said,
Speaker 4: we've seen time and time again the lines beat up
Speaker 4: on bad teams, especially teams if there's a coaching advantage,
Speaker 4: And this feels like a great matchment, just offensively.
Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna go through all the trends again.
Speaker 4: I people want to hear all the trends that read
Speaker 4: out check out Tuesday show, but it's not only is
Speaker 4: a great match up on paper and through the numbers,
Speaker 4: but there's tons of data and trends that show this
Speaker 4: spot is unique to this Lion's team with Golf and Campbell,
Speaker 4: and they usually win and cover.
Speaker 2: The one I will bring up again is when they're.
Speaker 4: Above a four favorite and after a loss at home
Speaker 4: eight to no against the spread in this exact spot,
Speaker 4: So play the number here we'll take the lines. And
Speaker 4: like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't
Speaker 4: give out double digit favorites. Is my favorite bet of
Speaker 4: the week, But I thought I was gonna keep going up.
Speaker 4: Like you just said, Chat, it's down to ten out
Speaker 4: of hard rock, So I'm gonna take that value and
Speaker 4: bet the number again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a little surprised, to be honest, that people
Speaker 1: would be investing in the Giants in their second game
Speaker 1: with a with a interim replacement head coach and truly
Speaker 1: defense that they cannot stop the run. And they just
Speaker 1: had you know, Abdua Carter have to sit out a
Speaker 1: series because he missed a practice because he just didn't attend.
Speaker 1: It sounded like he missed the practice because he was injured,
Speaker 1: missed the practice because he overslept. So this is not
Speaker 1: a team that is defensively in its best place right now.
Speaker 1: And they're going against the Lions team. You know, they
Speaker 1: are going to try to run the ball as much
Speaker 1: as they possibly can. That is their advantage. And the
Speaker 1: Ryans are the kind of team that when they run
Speaker 1: the ball, they find ways to score in bunches. They
Speaker 1: have enough talent that they can get down the field quickly,
Speaker 1: as quickly as anyone else can with the passing game.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I like the Lions here. I'm
Speaker 1: not afraid of it. Pittsburgh and Chicago. This one has
Speaker 1: moved in the Steelers direction, which we expected. We talked
Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday. It was at three. It's now
Speaker 1: at two and a half. Aaron Rodgers, we don't know
Speaker 1: if he's going to play. It's not a surgething. It's
Speaker 1: just about can he be safe with his particular injury
Speaker 1: on Sunday against the Bears. We will have to see
Speaker 1: about that, but it hasn't really mattered. The Bears are
Speaker 1: not the team that the wise guys want to back
Speaker 1: this week.
Speaker 2: I guess we're on the same boat. It's about the number.
Speaker 4: If I'm going to make a bet on this game,
Speaker 4: I wanted to be on the three.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let two and a half scare me off.
Speaker 2: If that's what it is. Come Sunday and Rodgers is cleared. Great.
Speaker 4: If it moves a ton because Rodgers is out and
Speaker 4: it goes up to three and a half, four, all right, great.
Speaker 4: I just I can't lose here, so to me, just
Speaker 4: be patient. Let the number move if it needs to,
Speaker 4: but you've seen it this week. A ton of games aremoved.
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's weird, it isn't it isn't it? It
Speaker 4: seems like the books kind of put up numbers and
Speaker 4: they're letting the pros dictate it rather than staying just
Speaker 4: you know, holding a line on a certain number. So
Speaker 4: I would say the most shocking part is just so
Speaker 4: many games the dogs have moved down. That's been because
Speaker 4: we've talked about this year been really good for the favorite.
Speaker 4: So yeah, there is another game where Rogers game out
Speaker 4: news he might play, he might toughen it out, and
Speaker 4: the number did dips, So a couple three still out there,
Speaker 4: But all the main books I'm seeing is two and
Speaker 4: a half. So yeah, I just look at the matchup wise.
Speaker 4: I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in
Speaker 4: a lot of ways, but it's we go back to it.
Speaker 4: It's how long can they keep getting away with this?
Speaker 4: They're just not that good of a team that has
Speaker 4: a ton of wins. But if this drops some more
Speaker 4: and it is Rogers back, I'm gonna end up on
Speaker 4: the Bear's chat. But at two and a half, I'll
Speaker 4: still be on Pittsburgh. Once the tips flow too, it's
Speaker 4: like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty
Speaker 4: eavily matched team and Bears do have somewhat of home
Speaker 4: field advantage.
Speaker 2: So I just if it moves too much off the
Speaker 2: Rogers News, I'll take a position on the Bears if
Speaker 2: I need to.
Speaker 1: Well, look, you said it the other day that the
Speaker 1: Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.
Speaker 1: And my buddy Andy, who've talked about on the show,
Speaker 1: just texted me that line because he loved it so much,
Speaker 1: because it kind of captures everything that every Bears fan
Speaker 1: is thinking about this team right now. There's sort of
Speaker 1: this foreboding sense of dread about the Bears and how
Speaker 1: good they are.
Speaker 4: That way I would go, it's got to be the
Speaker 4: opposite way. It's like, man, this is this is the dream.
Speaker 4: You're winning, You're stealing a winning game you shouldn't because
Speaker 4: you have a good coach.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's which.
Speaker 1: Is great, But we also have to ask ourselves. We
Speaker 1: keep winning games against bad teams in the final seconds.
Speaker 1: So are we a good team that is learning how
Speaker 1: to win? Are we a mediocre team that is just
Speaker 1: getting the right bounces at the right times against other
Speaker 1: bad to mediocre teams. Those are the questions that as
Speaker 1: Bears fans, obviously we're enjoying it, we love it, but
Speaker 1: we can't help but be ready to be snake bitten
Speaker 1: by a team that still has seven games left and
Speaker 1: could just as easily, by the way, be three and
Speaker 1: seven or four and six right now as they are
Speaker 1: seven and three. So this next seven games, there's still
Speaker 1: a wide variance in how good this team can actually perform.
Speaker 2: I agree, New.
Speaker 1: England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a
Speaker 1: half point dog. Crazy crazy swings in this game on
Speaker 1: six and a half at hard Rock bats, seven other places.
Speaker 1: This game, it was seven and a half on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: We thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. We
Speaker 1: knew there would be no Jamar Chase at some point.
Speaker 1: I know in my notes, I saw this game go
Speaker 1: to eight and a half, and now it's down to
Speaker 1: six and a half. We're talking about Joe Burrow. We're
Speaker 1: still getting seventy percent of the bets coming in on
Speaker 1: New England. But obviously news about who's going to be
Speaker 1: playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of
Speaker 1: the market in this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's kind of crazy that I was not
Speaker 2: expecting Joe Brow. I don't know about you.
Speaker 4: I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving, yeah, or
Speaker 4: after Thanksgiving, like Thanksgiven? Was me pushing it because it's
Speaker 4: a Thursday game out see against that Ravens.
Speaker 2: But incredible.
Speaker 4: We talk all the time just how far health, medicine,
Speaker 4: all of it has come for these athletes, and like
Speaker 4: the fact that he is backed potentially starting this week
Speaker 4: is pretty incredible.
Speaker 2: So Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2: That was the most shocking part to me. It only
Speaker 2: moved the point.
Speaker 4: It only moved the most books of seven and a
Speaker 4: half to six and a half. So yeah, I don't know,
Speaker 4: or I guess a couple of books did touch eight
Speaker 4: and a half. But yeah, I was just shocked it
Speaker 4: only moved that much. Still, like Cincy, if it is
Speaker 4: Joe Joe Burrow, you know a little worrisome because he
Speaker 4: is coming in cold. I guess you could say, right,
Speaker 4: he hasn't had the reps.
Speaker 2: He's coming in in a weird spot, and you know
Speaker 2: it's not ideal. But I still think you're getting a
Speaker 2: great number.
Speaker 4: I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team,
Speaker 4: Like I gave out that stat, it's just never a
Speaker 4: good stat.
Speaker 2: Or good spot.
Speaker 4: I should say to be in an h eight game
Speaker 4: win streak on the road as a big favorite, and
Speaker 4: the number has moved from maybe I'm overreading if there
Speaker 4: is value on the Patriots now, but I still think
Speaker 4: this is the Bengal's number. Like to me, Joe Burrow
Speaker 4: if he was healthy mid season playing, even if the
Speaker 4: record is what it is, this line would not be
Speaker 4: above three and a half four. So are we getting
Speaker 4: an extra two and a half points becuz it's Joe
Speaker 4: Burrow coming a little cold and the books don't really
Speaker 4: know how to price it and there's no chase, like
Speaker 4: you know, it's just.
Speaker 2: I see why the public is still going to be
Speaker 2: on this Patriots team.
Speaker 4: So I went from liking the Bengals team to like
Speaker 4: kind of loving this spot now, where it's like, this
Speaker 4: is the exact situation you want to be and it's
Speaker 4: just it depending on the number. I people don't feel
Speaker 4: comfortable now that it's moved off to seven. I get it,
Speaker 4: but every book is six and a half. You're just
Speaker 4: that's what it is. So once again. Like I said
Speaker 4: on Tuesday, I wasn't rushed making people rush to bed
Speaker 4: it because I didn't knowho the quarterback was going to be.
Speaker 2: I had no idea it was gonna be Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4: So I hope people grabbed it. I said, I bet
Speaker 4: it on Tuesday at the seven. At this point, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna bet it again just in case it keeps dropping
Speaker 4: with In fact, if it's Joe Brow gets clear, does
Speaker 4: move the four four and a half.
Speaker 2: So I like this number. But again it's hard for
Speaker 2: me to tell.
Speaker 4: People to bet it because if he's out and is
Speaker 4: Joe Flacco right up to seven and a half, eight,
Speaker 4: this would go.
Speaker 2: So it's a unique spot betting this number right.
Speaker 1: So we should be clear. Joe Burrow practice on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: full participant. We are recording this on Thursday midday. The
Speaker 1: Bengals have not had a practice yet, or at least
Speaker 1: not have indicated if Joe Burrow is going to be
Speaker 1: a full participant participant on Thursday. Zach Taylor has not
Speaker 1: said Joe Burrow was starting on Sunday, but the hope
Speaker 1: is that he can play on Sunday. They wanted to
Speaker 1: see how he did the rest of this week in practice.
Speaker 1: So the line is based on speculation of the move
Speaker 1: and anticipation of the move, not on actual news that
Speaker 1: has broken about Joe Burrow starting. That's why the Lion
Speaker 1: has moved thus far.
Speaker 4: Again, everything I've read is he is it's Joe Brow's team.
Speaker 4: He is pushing beyond you, like even if he's ninety percent,
Speaker 4: he's basically like made it known he's going to play.
Speaker 2: So that's why I do think the line reflects that.
Speaker 1: New England at I'm sorry, India, Kansas City, India is
Speaker 1: now a three point underdog. You want to make this
Speaker 1: Simon says, when the game was at three, it did
Speaker 1: get up to three and a half, and I've seen
Speaker 1: three and a half's out there, and it went back
Speaker 1: to three and a half in Kansas City's direction, even
Speaker 1: though the majority of the bets are coming in on Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: So Indianapolis is a bit of a public play here
Speaker 1: you were on Indy. It's so interesting, like the talk
Speaker 1: of the NFL Geekaraate this season has been that the
Speaker 1: Chiefs at what is it five and five now actually
Speaker 1: have better underlying metrics this year than they did last
Speaker 1: year when they went into the last game of the
Speaker 1: season with Scrubs at fifteen and one. But last year
Speaker 1: they were winning those one score games, and this year
Speaker 1: they're losing those one scores games. So did we buy
Speaker 1: into and improving better performing Chiefs team that is just
Speaker 1: getting unlucky? Are we buying into the Colts team that
Speaker 1: has can you continue to be very good in these
Speaker 1: close games and could be having the same kind of
Speaker 1: season that the Chiefs had last year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just gonna keep saying.
Speaker 4: I said, I just feel like the Cults are the safer,
Speaker 4: more logical bet here on this number because of what
Speaker 4: you just talked about. Last year, I think they might
Speaker 4: have been ten to one the Chiefs in one score games.
Speaker 4: It was insane, and we kept saying there will be regression,
Speaker 4: but because Mahomes, it's hard to know how much regression
Speaker 4: there's going to be.
Speaker 2: No one saw oh and five coming this season.
Speaker 4: That is again just like the ten and one was
Speaker 4: way too far one way, the five is too far
Speaker 4: the other ways. So you should start winning and stealing
Speaker 4: these one score games. Like we just said, hard Rocks
Speaker 4: are sharp book, they're at three. Every other book I'm
Speaker 4: looking at right now is three and a half. So
Speaker 4: we don't care if Mahomes went to one score game.
Speaker 4: We're gonna be in that number most of the time
Speaker 4: with a three and a half with a Colts that
Speaker 4: it's fair to say they're just the better team. They're
Speaker 4: playing like a better team right now. And I mean
Speaker 4: with game we just moves all the Bears. You're doing
Speaker 4: exactly what the Chiefs team can't do. They're closing out
Speaker 4: games and stealing them at the end. Whatever it is.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs just have not been able to do it
Speaker 4: this year, and either in situationally just Mahomes.
Speaker 2: Like you feel what I feel.
Speaker 4: Anytime you see him get the ball back with time
Speaker 4: on that clock, you expect them to drive the field
Speaker 4: and score, and this year it's just not happened that way.
Speaker 2: He just either goes threes an hour, they punt, or you.
Speaker 4: Know, they don't get the whistles at a lot of
Speaker 4: their games. It feels like they've been carried by the
Speaker 4: whistle and the reugh right like they've had drives. They're
Speaker 4: deader than dead. The reps give them a little bit
Speaker 4: of life and then then Mahomes kicks it up at
Speaker 4: a gear and they drive the field and get touchdown,
Speaker 4: So you know that's another part of it. I just
Speaker 4: think they've been in consistent. So you know, I read
Speaker 4: some trends. There's somethings that really favorite this Colts team here,
Speaker 4: especially at that three and a half number.
Speaker 2: You know, it's a unique spot, right, it's a Chiefs team.
Speaker 4: I think I have an amazing stat about this chief team.
Speaker 4: Basically a team that's below or at five hundred favored
Speaker 4: against a team like the Colts who's you know, above
Speaker 4: a seventy percent win percentage. This unique spot for the Chiefs. Historically,
Speaker 4: this team in the spot is twelve to zero against
Speaker 4: the spread. So I know there are guys who'd like
Speaker 4: the Chiefs here. They're saying the books are telling you something.
Speaker 4: They're taking a stand with the books, the fact that
Speaker 4: they are stupig favorite. And you know, Joe Public's gonna
Speaker 4: look at this like I am looking at which like,
Speaker 4: I just don't get this. The Culture are a much
Speaker 4: better team. They've played better this season. Just throw out
Speaker 4: the records, just on the field stuff. You think the
Speaker 4: Culture are a better team. So I knew the Public
Speaker 4: doll would be the Colts. It's nice to see it
Speaker 4: has moved because that shows that professional money is coming
Speaker 4: on this Colts team.
Speaker 2: Like I told you, I.
Speaker 4: Know plenty of professionals are staying with the books and they're
Speaker 4: taking the Chiefs here. So like I've said, I just
Speaker 4: think it's they're betting in line from the Chiefs of yesteryear,
Speaker 4: not the Chiefs this year, which is a team that
Speaker 4: just has not been great in one score games. I
Speaker 4: still can't believe else that Broncos game, Like, I really
Speaker 4: can't like it lined up so many ways you thought
Speaker 4: they were gonna win and steal it and they just
Speaker 4: can never get over that hump.
Speaker 2: So yeah, the I get it.
Speaker 4: Like the Chiefs, you want to bet their money line
Speaker 4: because you just can't see them losing. That's safer to
Speaker 4: me than take of them at the three or the
Speaker 4: minus three and a half. So I just think we're
Speaker 4: playing the number strictly three and a half. That's where
Speaker 4: I got to be with this Colts team.
Speaker 1: Chiefs on the money line is going to be part
Speaker 1: of our money line parlay for sure. Cleveland at the
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. Look, I nearly made this Chad's choice
Speaker 1: on Sunday on Tuesday when it was Raiders at minus three.
Speaker 1: It's now moved to three and a half. Should Door
Speaker 1: Sanders is officially the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 1: You can give should or Sanders the benefit of the doubt,
Speaker 1: if you want to be incredibly generous, right you can
Speaker 1: say okay, you can say, okay, he's getting a full
Speaker 1: week of practice, he's with the starters, all those opportunity unities.
Speaker 1: But here's I think the problem with Shore Sanders, and
Speaker 1: that isn't going to change because it was the same
Speaker 1: thing in college. We saw the same thing in training camp.
Speaker 1: We saw the same thing last week. The dude holds
Speaker 1: the ball forever in the pocket, and he's not a
Speaker 1: big scrambler, and they've got a lot of injuries on
Speaker 1: the offensive line, and on the other side is Max Crosby.
Speaker 1: So I think there are just incredible advantages for this
Speaker 1: Raiders team. Forget about the fact you're getting the Browns
Speaker 1: on the road versus at home. I've gone through all
Speaker 1: the numbers. They give up ten more points per game
Speaker 1: on the road that they do at home. They give
Speaker 1: up i think more rushing yards on the road than
Speaker 1: they do at home. So it's not a great spot
Speaker 1: for a Browns defense that just had a rock fight
Speaker 1: of a game and didn't come out on top against
Speaker 1: the Ravens Miles Garrett four sacks last week. But like
Speaker 1: I know, we're afraid to bet on Gino, but we're betting.
Speaker 1: Nothing in betting is perfect, right, you got to play
Speaker 1: all of it, and I think that when you went,
Speaker 1: when you stack up all the positives and all the negatives,
Speaker 1: it's still a better game spot for the Raiders than
Speaker 1: it is for the Browns.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm just scared off by the number. It's just.
Speaker 4: I'm betting in but it feels unnatural because it does
Speaker 4: feel way too easy and as bad as you know is,
Speaker 4: I just I still can't leave this open at two
Speaker 4: and a half.
Speaker 2: And like you said, we bet at two and a
Speaker 2: half better at the three.
Speaker 4: But I said them to the show, you have to
Speaker 4: talk about it minus three and a half because that's
Speaker 4: that's where it's going to be out for everybody. Yeah,
Speaker 4: sure enough, that's I mean a little by the time
Speaker 4: we post the show, that's where it was at. So
Speaker 4: I don't know, I Vegas, Like you said, it's the
Speaker 4: right side, We'll be on it, but I just see
Speaker 4: a million different ways that we get burned by Gino.
Speaker 4: But like you said, how does seniors move the ball
Speaker 4: push it downfield? So like my way here would just
Speaker 4: be what we see with Cleveland, right. They have a
Speaker 4: really good run game that can mitigate bad quarterback play.
Speaker 4: But if we can somehow get a lead and forced
Speaker 4: Shador to have to pass, I think that's where they
Speaker 4: could steal this game. So I'm backing with you, which
Speaker 4: is of all my bets this week, I'm more so
Speaker 4: like I've said, I'm heavy on the money line for
Speaker 4: this Raiders team. I just I'm very aware of this
Speaker 4: number at mines three and a half. It's just I'm
Speaker 4: glad to see it's gone up to four, which shows
Speaker 4: a professional money and the public are still betting three
Speaker 4: and a half. But yeah, if we get to Sunday
Speaker 4: and it's just still stuck here and mines three and
Speaker 4: a half, I don't know if I can let us
Speaker 4: put it in one over five.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm super excited about this game. I love it,
Speaker 1: Love love the Raiders here. The other game that I
Speaker 1: love Jacksonville at Arizona. This was Chad's choice. I was
Speaker 1: really and I gave it out. Chad's choices two and
Speaker 1: a half, but I said on the show, be patient,
Speaker 1: it's going to get to three. It just hadn't gotten
Speaker 1: there yet. It is now a three, thank god. So
Speaker 1: hopefully people who are paying attention they saw the line
Speaker 1: move at to three middle of the day yesterday. I'm
Speaker 1: really glad that it did. Marvin Harrison Junior is missing
Speaker 1: the game with Jacoby Brissett, who just threw for forty
Speaker 1: seven completions and Mike Wilson had one hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: five yards. I don't think Jacoby Brissett cares that much
Speaker 1: if Marvin Harrison is not playing Marvin Harrison Junior in
Speaker 1: the same way that Kyler Murray would need to have
Speaker 1: someone like Marvin Harrison Junior playing. But the truth is,
Speaker 1: I'm just fading the Jags here, and I'm betting. That's
Speaker 1: much more what I'm doing than betting on the cards.
Speaker 1: I know you love it when I geek out on
Speaker 1: the numbers, so I'm sure you're familiar with Pythagorean wins,
Speaker 1: which essentially like the number of wins a team is
Speaker 1: supposed to have based on all of their underlying advanced
Speaker 1: metrics that shows the true performance. It kind of takes
Speaker 1: a lot of the luck out of the game. It
Speaker 1: just shows you, all right, if everything was equal, this
Speaker 1: is how this team would be. This is what this
Speaker 1: team's record would be. And of course when I look
Speaker 1: at this, the Jags should have about one fewer win
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals should have one more win. So instead
Speaker 1: of being a team that is like, what are the
Speaker 1: cards three and seven, they should probably be closer to
Speaker 1: four and six or five and five, And the Jags,
Speaker 1: instead of being six and four, should probably be closer
Speaker 1: to five and five. That's not how this game is lined.
Speaker 1: This game is lined is that the Jags are a
Speaker 1: much much better team. I don't see it that way.
Speaker 1: Give me the Cards plus three.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think it did move a little bit
Speaker 4: because of the injuries that this Cardinals team has had
Speaker 4: this week, where like you just said, their number one
Speaker 4: receiver is not going to miss.
Speaker 2: This game, and you know, it's once again a rotation
Speaker 2: at their running back.
Speaker 4: They might begain trade Benson back, which doesn't sound like
Speaker 4: a big deal, but I like him.
Speaker 2: I think he's an upgrade to the running back position
Speaker 2: for them.
Speaker 4: So you know, this Cardinals team, our biggest rate in
Speaker 4: the day is can their defense get some stop, because
Speaker 4: that's what I talked about, that.
Speaker 1: Their defense has been getting worse every single week.
Speaker 2: Every week. Yeah, it's just been brutal. So that's like
Speaker 2: my only real fear here.
Speaker 4: But offensively, I love this match of Arizona. I just
Speaker 4: think the Jags defense as great as they looked against
Speaker 4: that Chargers team. I think that was all, you know,
Speaker 4: just basically based on Herbert not adjusting to his offensive
Speaker 4: line love injuries.
Speaker 2: He just holds on. In my opinion, Herbert holds all
Speaker 2: the ball too long.
Speaker 4: So I think Brissette in this matchup Bill take advantage
Speaker 4: of this bad secondary of this Jacks team because be
Speaker 4: about to remember, you know, even if Brian Toomps juniors
Speaker 4: would come back in this game, he's not one hundred rights.
Speaker 4: He's been banged up and he's been fight through Injews
Speaker 4: all season. He's just not been that good. Mitch Trevor
Speaker 4: Lawrence relationship this year has just not been good. And
Speaker 4: I joked last year he had agree relationship with Mac Jones.
Speaker 4: I mean, he really shined with it. So it's not
Speaker 4: it's not great with them. And we already know Travis
Speaker 4: Hunters out for this one, so everything. If I get
Speaker 4: Jacks took advantage of in that Chargers game, doesn't feel
Speaker 4: like they'll be able to in this game. And we've
Speaker 4: seen time and time again this Jags team on the
Speaker 4: road as favorites, they've struggled this season. So you know,
Speaker 4: like you said, yeah, we're playing the number here, there's
Speaker 4: probably closer to a pick. We're taking the Cardinals at
Speaker 4: a good number at plus three. But in this match
Speaker 4: of it really is about fading Trevor Lawrence against this
Speaker 4: Cardinals defense.
Speaker 2: It feels like it's a better matchup for them.
Speaker 4: They've had the last two weeks against really good, high
Speaker 4: powered offenses.
Speaker 1: You and I one hundred percent aligned on the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1: It always works out when we love a game this much,
Speaker 1: Inevitably we get burned. So I can't wait to see
Speaker 1: how he gets screwed on Sunday. And I know it's
Speaker 1: going to be the game that we're waiting for it
Speaker 1: to end before we go on the air, And I'm
Speaker 1: going to take that long, dark, cold walk up to
Speaker 1: my third floor and I'm just gonna have to answer
Speaker 1: for this, and I'm already miserable about it, but I
Speaker 1: don't care. I don't care. I'm ready.
Speaker 2: I love the.
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals this week, all right, it's a little tricky
Speaker 1: Atlanta at New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints or one
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites right now. Simon took us
Speaker 1: a minute, but our brass ball got to do a
Speaker 1: quasim in a hotel. Brass Balls Bet of the Week
Speaker 1: presented by Hard Rock Bet. It's gonna be the New
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Speaker 1: Here's how I finally came to it. No Drake London,
Speaker 1: he's kind of their entire offense. No Michael Pennix, who
Speaker 1: heartbreaking that he's got a torn acl and needs to
Speaker 1: have that repaired. Kirk Cousins like this game is ugly.
Speaker 1: It's not because we all of a sudden are going
Speaker 1: back to our Oh the Saints are competitive. It's not
Speaker 1: because we think Tyler Shock is all of a sudden
Speaker 1: the good quarterback. It's not of any of those things.
Speaker 2: To me.
Speaker 1: It's only a bet against Kirk Cousins, a bet against
Speaker 1: the fact they don't have Drake London, and I think
Speaker 1: it's going to be really hard for them to move
Speaker 1: the ball.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and hopefully people can get this before it moves
Speaker 4: to too A hard rock in Jersey here just moves
Speaker 4: to to while we're doing this live, honestly, and a
Speaker 4: lot of them, so two real public books out there
Speaker 4: are still at the one and a half, which I
Speaker 4: hope people can get.
Speaker 2: But talk a little bit about it, like this is
Speaker 2: a split game.
Speaker 4: I know some pros who every time it touches too
Speaker 4: they're going to take Atlanta, And on the flip side
Speaker 4: of the Saints, every time it's at this number minus
Speaker 4: one and a half, every probably know he's gonna take
Speaker 4: the Saints. So it's been really fun where it's a
Speaker 4: lot of back and forth and it's really about what
Speaker 4: you just said. Atlanta, they're not that bad of a team,
Speaker 4: Like if you go through all out of their games,
Speaker 4: I mean, they could have beat the Patriots, they could
Speaker 4: have beat the Colts right like those are would have
Speaker 4: had huge, massive wins that could have really flipped their season.
Speaker 4: But they've struggled in those close one score games. And
Speaker 4: I do put that on the coaching. So I don't
Speaker 4: think Kirk is an upgrade the penix and he said
Speaker 4: the number one weapon on that team is going to
Speaker 4: be out as well.
Speaker 2: Drake London, So I can't believe.
Speaker 4: We talked a little bit on Tuesday about and I
Speaker 4: gave out all this Kirk stats, how horrible he's been
Speaker 4: once you really dive into it though, and the injuries
Speaker 4: this this team has had, Atlanta, how do you not
Speaker 4: love the Saints heres? So I'm glad to see it's
Speaker 4: moving it to at least it shows me that real
Speaker 4: money is coming in heavily finally on the Saints team,
Speaker 4: which to me makes sense. So I hope, I hope
Speaker 4: people can get the one and a half here when
Speaker 4: they hear it, because we talked all the time about
Speaker 4: key number two is this is also a game where
Speaker 4: I might throw a little bit on the adjusted line.
Speaker 4: Like again, Kirk Cousins might be done, done, done, and
Speaker 4: this could be a really good match for them where
Speaker 4: they just know all if you do is take away
Speaker 4: the run and just put it all on the Kirk's
Speaker 4: arm and see if you can beat you that way,
Speaker 4: which again we've talked to Saints our veteran defense, they
Speaker 4: have the guys that probably can do that in the
Speaker 4: middle take away their run. So yeah, it's it's a
Speaker 4: game that we tried to find a game we both
Speaker 4: agreed on it. I feel like it's the one we
Speaker 4: really agreed on together that we both love.
Speaker 1: Yep, totally. Uh, Philadelphia Dallas. Dallas is now a three
Speaker 1: point dog. It was four and a half early in
Speaker 1: the week. You were hammering it at foreign and a half.
Speaker 1: By Tuesday it was down to three. There are places
Speaker 1: where it moved back up to three and a half,
Speaker 1: and I wondered how you felt about that, because when
Speaker 1: we talked about it on Tuesday, you were anxious that
Speaker 1: it was going to keep moving and then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden you'd have to be betting on the Eagles
Speaker 1: at under three. It's gone back up. I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of sentiment out there that whatever is plaguing
Speaker 1: the Eagles offense is going to be a challenge for them.
Speaker 1: And even if they think the Eagles are going to win,
Speaker 1: and we'll probably end up having the Eagles in our
Speaker 1: moneyline parlay, it's going to be hard for them to
Speaker 1: cover a big number against this Dallas offense.
Speaker 2: I think we might have to skip it. No Monylam
Speaker 2: parlay chat. It's really Yeah. The Cowboys approached the end
Speaker 2: zone like a team.
Speaker 3: Attending a buffet supper sampling a wide range of delights
Speaker 3: before finishing the media.
Speaker 4: I told you for the show, a group I really respect,
Speaker 4: it's really respected in the industry, has put north of
Speaker 4: seven figures into this Cowboys team at the three and
Speaker 4: a half and at the four at the four and
Speaker 4: a half. So, like you just said, there's tons of
Speaker 4: three and a half's out there if you want to
Speaker 4: join a really smart group. And you know, I thought
Speaker 4: I was gonna be on Dallas. It was like, Okay,
Speaker 4: I'll bet Dallas this week. It's a good number, divisional
Speaker 4: matchup home dog. We talked, you know, game one of
Speaker 4: the year, the biggest strength of the Dallas team was
Speaker 4: going to be the number two receiver and pickings against
Speaker 4: a bad corner on the Eagles. Little do we know,
Speaker 4: pickens are gonna be like what the number one receiver
Speaker 4: this year, a number two stat wise behind the guy
Speaker 4: up in Seattle. So you know, I can't get over
Speaker 4: this matchup as an Eagles fan. I just don't get
Speaker 4: what they're Seenior. I can't believe as an Eagles fan
Speaker 4: they're saying We're gonna lose this game to the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: I can't believe it. I really can't.
Speaker 4: So I have zero dollars invest in this Egles money line.
Speaker 4: I've taken a position on the Cowboys money line here,
Speaker 4: and just I guess I'll trust the number. And these
Speaker 4: really smart professionals here, they're telling me this is an
Speaker 4: incredible spot for this Cowboys team. And you know, again,
Speaker 4: Kevin petulu O see of this Eagles team. I still
Speaker 4: a report that he's getting looks at being a head
Speaker 4: coach candidate next year, and it makes me want to
Speaker 4: rip my head out. It's like, what am I missing here?
Speaker 4: I just everything feels so dysfunctional, these Egos offense. This
Speaker 4: is where I feel like this Cowboys team can maybe
Speaker 4: taking advantage of the fact that their offense is clicking.
Speaker 4: On the flip side, this Eagles offense just seems so congested.
Speaker 4: And you know, we've seen the upgrades THATX Cowboys made
Speaker 4: to their defense between trading and getting guys back healthy.
Speaker 4: You know, obviously this is not the Raiders offense, but
Speaker 4: it feels like they can stop a the functional Eagles
Speaker 4: team right now, which I think the Eagles need.
Speaker 2: They need it. They it feels like they need.
Speaker 4: To lose a game to correct some of their woes
Speaker 4: right now, because as likely it's been to keep winning,
Speaker 4: and as much hate as I want to give this
Speaker 4: guy Kevin, his offense doesn't turn the bull over and
Speaker 4: they keep winning.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's a weird spot where I just it.
Speaker 4: Feels like the public and the professionals are aligning on
Speaker 4: this Cowboys team because of all the outside noise, and
Speaker 4: it's like, is this not moved too much?
Speaker 2: So, like I said, if it gets a two and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 4: On the Eagles, I'm not going to take it now
Speaker 4: because I respect this group so much, but I feel
Speaker 4: like this is such an overreaction.
Speaker 2: This numbers move so much.
Speaker 4: So once again, get to three and a half the three,
Speaker 4: I don't want to tell people to take the Cowboys here,
Speaker 4: but at three and a half, I do think that's
Speaker 4: a really strong number where really swarm money's back.
Speaker 2: In that number.
Speaker 1: I'm surprised to hear you say that that is new
Speaker 1: news since the Tuesday show, so obviously you've gotten some
Speaker 1: intel on this, this syndicate that's betting pig money on
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. I think if the Eagles off, it truly
Speaker 1: pains me.
Speaker 2: I can't believe they're going to lose this game to
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. But that's what guys are telling me. They're like, dude,
Speaker 2: this is a trap, a bad spot for this Eagles team.
Speaker 2: They're walking right into it.
Speaker 1: Well, look, if the Eagles offensive Cornator is all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, there's news about him getting looks as head.
Speaker 2: Coach, I thinktrolling me.
Speaker 1: I swear that's just his agent who's really good planting, planting,
Speaker 1: planting with some friendlies.
Speaker 2: That's right, that's true.
Speaker 1: That's all. That's all that is. There's no one who's
Speaker 1: really serious about that Tampa Bay at the Los Angeles Rams,
Speaker 1: this one is moving towards seven. It's at six and
Speaker 1: a half. I just can't not like the Bucks here.
Speaker 1: And I know we're on opposite sides because I think
Speaker 1: Baker started scrambling. I think Sean Tucker has taken on
Speaker 1: some of the responsibilities that came with Bucky Irving. So
Speaker 1: it's taken the pressure and the load off of Rashad White.
Speaker 1: If you look at Seattle, I said this earlier in
Speaker 1: the show, they still almost won that game against the Rams,
Speaker 1: even after four Sam Darnold interceptions. What does that tell
Speaker 1: you about either the Rams' ability to be effective offensively,
Speaker 1: What does it tell you about the play calling, what
Speaker 1: does it tell you about their defense? And maybe there
Speaker 1: are some holes that you can take advantage of, Like
Speaker 1: the Bucks also nearly covered against the Bills. They were
Speaker 1: five minutes away from winning that game until Josh Allen
Speaker 1: went into superhuman mode. So I know we've been burned
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. I'm still having better. I'm waiting for
Speaker 1: it to get to seven. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: get there, and when it does, I'm gonna have to
Speaker 1: bet the Bucks.
Speaker 2: I know, I get what you're coming from. By just
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't think this Bucks team is
Speaker 2: good the public.
Speaker 4: Like I went back and rewatched that game, and you're
Speaker 4: you're honestly making a bet strictly on Baker having magic
Speaker 4: and keeping this game close. But these injuries have caught
Speaker 4: up to them offensively, like him not having all of
Speaker 4: his guys.
Speaker 2: It's a real issue. As great as a Mecca.
Speaker 4: Buka has been, you've seen teams be able to adjust
Speaker 4: to him because it's again a first year player. There's
Speaker 4: only so many good things he's gonna be able to do.
Speaker 4: He's very raw, right, So say he's incredible running these
Speaker 4: They've literally just been dropping a linebacker every time under
Speaker 4: coverage into his routes. So now he's had to really
Speaker 4: go downfield more, which again Bakers in mind pushing the
Speaker 4: ball downfield, but they're just gonna have a safety or
Speaker 4: top of them the whole time. Like you just know
Speaker 4: you have to double with Mecha, Buca, everyone else you're
Speaker 4: gonna be able to do one on ones with. Right,
Speaker 4: You're getting guys off the street here for this Bucks team,
Speaker 4: which you know Baker can make magic. Like you said,
Speaker 4: there is a world where he can make this the
Speaker 4: game and cover this number, because we've seen that with Baker,
Speaker 4: like he just never gives.
Speaker 2: Up that Bills game. Like we said that three and out,
Speaker 2: that's why you lost that cover at the end of
Speaker 2: the game. If Baker doesn't go three and out there
Speaker 2: and does what he had been doing, Drave if at
Speaker 2: least gets you a field goal there, it's a totally
Speaker 2: different situation. You probably do cover that number.
Speaker 4: But three and out Josh Allen was on a mission,
Speaker 4: gets the ball back, went right down the field scored again.
Speaker 4: So looking here, Chad, I think the professionals view it
Speaker 4: as why this number is going up to seven. It's
Speaker 4: just that I don't think they're gonna get Bucky back.
Speaker 4: To me, that's a big deal. This Rams team, as
Speaker 4: bad as they looked last week. This this has to
Speaker 4: be an exactly exactly get right spot for this Rams
Speaker 4: offense against a bad Bucks defense. Right, Seattle's defense kind
Speaker 4: of not put Stafford in his place. But we were saying,
Speaker 4: I think he still is an MVP favorite, but he
Speaker 4: did not play at MVP level there. We talked about
Speaker 4: he had fifty completions. He totally burned us in a
Speaker 4: game his team gets four picks. We should have covered
Speaker 4: that number of a million different ways. He couldn't get
Speaker 4: his team in field goal range. I mean, like you said,
Speaker 4: they scored that fourteen in the first quarter with five
Speaker 4: minutes to go. He only scored seven the rest of
Speaker 4: the game. So for a Stafford, this offensive feels get
Speaker 4: get right spot. And yeah, we're just on opposite side.
Speaker 4: You like the Bucks, But I don't think he'll take
Speaker 4: the Bucks here a minus six and a half, I
Speaker 4: think you'll just or plus six and a half, you'll
Speaker 4: just wait grab the seven where on the Rams. If
Speaker 4: you're getting this now, I would take the six and
Speaker 4: a half now, because I only think this goes up.
Speaker 4: I just don't see it coming down, just because I
Speaker 4: think Bucky will be out. We'll have God went out,
Speaker 4: and we'll see who they get back to the offensive
Speaker 4: line for this Bucks team.
Speaker 2: But just so many injuries to this team. Baker go
Speaker 2: only handles so much.
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, Caroline plus seven at San Francisco. Why
Speaker 1: aren't we betting Carolina here? You know, Bryce Young against
Speaker 1: this defense. I know that everybody wants to say that
Speaker 1: the Niners are back with Brock Purty. Seven just feels
Speaker 1: like a huge, huge, huge, huge number us for a
Speaker 1: Panthers team that continues to find ways to not just
Speaker 1: cover and win. They're doing the same things they did
Speaker 1: last year. They're building momentum in the second half. They're
Speaker 1: taking big chances. I know you hated the chances they
Speaker 1: took on Sunday and Dave canalyis was your shame? Shame, shame,
Speaker 1: But it just feels like this Panthers team is too
Speaker 1: competitive and this number is too big, and everyone is
Speaker 1: forgetting that this Niners defense is just not very good.
Speaker 1: They're wide open and vulnerable to what Bryce Young likes
Speaker 1: to do and how Dave Canalis likes to call plays.
Speaker 4: I know, but like I keep saying, there has to
Speaker 4: be something we are missing here because this line does
Speaker 4: not make sense at all. No sense in the books
Speaker 4: are telling us that Bryce Shung is going to lay
Speaker 4: in the here, that's what they're saying to us. But
Speaker 4: we have all this data that shows this Niners team
Speaker 4: just they have letdown games after big wins, and they've
Speaker 4: done so the last year and a half with whether
Speaker 4: it's been Brock pretty Er, mac Jones, it doesn't matter
Speaker 4: who the quarterback has been. That that's been consistent. They
Speaker 4: are one in fourteen against the spread after or win.
Speaker 4: You know, I just don't get this line at all.
Speaker 4: Like you've said, this Carolina team, they have the guys
Speaker 4: that keep up with this offense. You know, we know
Speaker 4: their defense is going to struggle in the forty nine
Speaker 4: is going to get this, but we expect the Panthers
Speaker 4: to keep up.
Speaker 2: And this is seven and a half of two different
Speaker 2: books here in Jersey Jet.
Speaker 1: It's ridiculous.
Speaker 4: It's minus one twenty five and minus one twenty at
Speaker 4: both of them. But I mean, I'm very tempted to
Speaker 4: put a large wager on this Panthers team.
Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
Speaker 4: I'm just trying to be cautious here because there's just
Speaker 4: something I'm missing. My model's totally off and I'm totally off.
Speaker 4: I just do not get the number at all. So, yeah,
Speaker 4: this every every book I've talked to has said the
Speaker 4: majority of the money they've taken so far he has
Speaker 4: been Panthers, which to me makes sense, Like the public
Speaker 4: is with us.
Speaker 2: They've seen Bryce Young what he's done.
Speaker 4: And you know, Atlanta, like we just said they're potentially
Speaker 4: a really bad team and we've overvalued them. And you know,
Speaker 4: any defense that just gave up four hundred fifty yards
Speaker 4: or Bryce Young, we can say is a bad defense.
Speaker 4: But I don't know, like we said this for and
Speaker 4: Ers team with their injuries, they're not that much better,
Speaker 4: Like they really aren't.
Speaker 2: So I don't get it. Chat, I just do not
Speaker 2: get this line at all. And I'm with you. I
Speaker 2: am all over this Panthers one.
Speaker 4: But I'm trying to be cautious because it feels way
Speaker 4: too easy and I'm missing something Like again, it.
Speaker 2: Feels a couple a couple of lines this week feel really.
Speaker 4: Interesting where they've they've moved and this is one of
Speaker 4: those games where this was six and a half, it's
Speaker 4: gone to seven, and now it's trending towards seven and
Speaker 4: a half, so be careful. We'll talk more about it Sunday,
Speaker 4: where once I get more from because it is the
Speaker 4: money night game.
Speaker 2: But yeah, as we say here right now, I really
Speaker 2: really like the Panthers number.
Speaker 1: I do too. The games that we know we'll be
Speaker 1: talking about on Sunday either because of Liones, because games
Speaker 1: we like now because of injury news. We're going to
Speaker 1: talk about the Lions. We're going to talk about the
Speaker 1: Steelers because we're waiting to find out about Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about Seattle. We'll probably talk about Cincy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because of Joe Burrow. We're going to talk about the Raiders.
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the Cardinals, the Saints, Geez Dallas.
Speaker 1: Caroline Like, it's going to be hard to narrow these
Speaker 1: things down on Sunday.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's a fun week for sure.
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick word from hard rock and we'll
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Speaker 1: All right, simon, biggest bets, pull up bost pants and
Speaker 1: be a man h.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's all depend on the number.
Speaker 4: Like again, I'm pretty heavy on Detroit obviously, people know
Speaker 4: that minus ten and a half minus ten, I've really
Speaker 4: taken a big position on that one since I'm getting there, people,
Speaker 4: So I've taken big positions in seven six and a half,
Speaker 4: Colts plus three and a half and you know, probably
Speaker 4: not that shock any people. Cowboys plus three and a half,
Speaker 4: I've taken a pretty big position. So I'm being patient
Speaker 4: on the Rams and the Panthers and see where that
Speaker 4: number goes. But those could end up being pretty big
Speaker 4: bets of mine as well.
Speaker 1: It worries me that my biggest bets so far this
Speaker 1: week are not on your list, the Raiders and the Cardinals.
Speaker 4: I'm invested heavily in the Raiders' money line, but yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm just I don't know.
Speaker 2: Something about that number just scares me a little bit.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, now I'm scared that you're not aligned
Speaker 1: with what I'm doing. Let's talk about some parlays here.
Speaker 1: Let's choose three underdog parlay is because I know we've
Speaker 1: got probably five parlays that we really like for the
Speaker 1: favorites underdogs.
Speaker 2: My dog blocks your dog. Your dog blocks my dog.
Speaker 1: I could see Cincy, you know, if it's Joe Burrow, like,
Speaker 1: it doesn't doesn't terribly scare.
Speaker 2: Me, all right, do Cincy? Dallas? Yeah, Pittsburgh plus one
Speaker 2: twenty five. Yeah, it's not terrible, dude. Cardinals, Cardinals, all right.
Speaker 2: I compan that they're they're plus one forty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Arizona, all right, the favorites. We're definitely gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. Oh yeah, we're gonna go with the Saints.
Speaker 1: What about Kansas City?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can do it.
Speaker 1: Kansas City.
Speaker 2: You know, I think I think them being five and
Speaker 2: six is very real.
Speaker 1: Raiders Saints, Kansas City.
Speaker 4: I want to do se Yeah, well yeah, do some
Speaker 4: adjusted lines do uh, Seattle minus five and a half?
Speaker 1: Okay, Seattle minus five and a half.
Speaker 2: Let's do one. How can we not take Packers?
Speaker 1: Yeah, take the Packers.
Speaker 4: I mean they if I get it's it's a divisional game,
Speaker 4: things do happen. But my god, they've they've lost so
Speaker 4: many bad games this yere. They can't drop another one
Speaker 4: at home in the spot.
Speaker 1: All right, sharp versus square, give me your thoughts here.
Speaker 1: You can go first. Since you were at Carolina last
Speaker 1: week and I did not.
Speaker 4: I mean I would do Dallas plus three and a
Speaker 4: half Hard Rocks unfortunately three.
Speaker 2: I'll do uh Colts plus three and a half Cold
Speaker 2: plus three. Leaking confidence. As I said, you are a
Speaker 2: leaking a little. I feel much shafe for doing Dallas
Speaker 2: plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: But I'll give you Dallas three and a half. It's
Speaker 1: kind of been there all week.
Speaker 2: And you can get Dallas. Yeah, it's had a bunch
Speaker 2: of main books.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can get Dallas three and a half pretty
Speaker 1: much anywhere. I'm down to Sinci in Vegas.
Speaker 2: Do Vegas? You love it?
Speaker 1: I do love Vegas. I'll take minus three trying to
Speaker 1: get you off of it. You love it, I love
Speaker 1: the I love the Raiders. I love it all right.
Speaker 4: And then survivor just real quick, as people always ask,
Speaker 4: you can't go wrong with these still with digitalgs people,
Speaker 4: if you still have Seahawks, you still have lines, you
Speaker 4: still have Ravens, just use them. If not, if you're
Speaker 4: really stuck, if you still somehow still have Green Bay,
Speaker 4: use them. If you still somehow have the Rams, I
Speaker 4: wouldn't waste them on the books. Your books are easily
Speaker 4: win that game. So there's a bunch of options there.
Speaker 4: I just wouldn't force in big favorites of the Rams
Speaker 4: or or the forty nine ers. The four Niners could
Speaker 4: lose that game as well.
Speaker 1: All Right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the
Speaker 1: Volume podcast network. We will be back on Shrepper Square
Speaker 1: YouTube on Sunday morning. Simon and I are going to
Speaker 1: make utterly human, challenging decisions that we will regret the
Speaker 1: rest of the day. Will be back on Sharper Square
Speaker 1: YouTube later that day seven point thirty pm Eastern. To
Speaker 1: review how we did. Watch or listen on YouTube at
Speaker 1: sharp or Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1: You can also download it from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
Speaker 1: Love you.
Speaker 2: Right now, it's time to take a step forward.
Speaker 1: We gotta put something together. Back to back.
Speaker 4: Let's go