WEBVTT - SHARP NFL BETS Week 12: Eagles-Cowboys, Bucs-Rams, Vikings-Packers, Colts-Chiefs, Giants-Lions and more 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:04.240 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:07.360 are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:09.559 show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise guys 0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:13.440 pay attention. I am Chadmoman. I am joined by my bff, 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:18.320 my companion, my compadre, my co host, Professional Better, Simon 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:21.439 Hunter Ellos. 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.600 Simon Chad. How we doing, brother, my brother? 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.440 As you know, on Tuesday, I was recording the show 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:32.080 from my hotel in the city of Brotherly Love. Today 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:36.560 I'm recording from a different hotel on the outskirts, the 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:41.839 very very far outskirts of Pittsburgh, PA. On Tuesday, I 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:46.559 had a beautiful view of City Hall, that magnificent building 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:50.559 right in the center of Philadelphia in center City. Today 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.199 I have a view of the waffle House across a 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:57.200 five lane highway. That is the journey that I am 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:00.840 on during this book. This is our Thursday, Week twelve episode. 0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:03.240 We're going to narrow down the options on our quest 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:08.360 to find our five favorite picks. We're inching our way closer. Reminder, 0:01:08.400 --> 0:01:11.600 subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pots, Spotify, wherever 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.200 you get your pods. Listen before we get going. We 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:17.280 love Mike Tomlin on this show. We just think he's 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:20.520 amazing and has done so much and provided so much 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.840 entertainment over the years. He did it again this week 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.520 when he was asked about how he would talk to 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.560 Jalen Ramsey and his response of going after Jamar Chase 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:34.880 after Jamar Chase spit in Jalen Ramsey's face, Mike Tomlin 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.280 had a classic Mike Tomlin answer. Let's roll it. 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.200 Matt Mitchell, I'd have no message of someone spits in 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.360 your face. Google comes natural. 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.080 Hey, everybody, producer, Matt Mitchell here, I'm sorry to jump in. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.720 I just wanted to call out this episode might sound 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:53.800 a little bit off from an audio standpoint. Chad is traveling, 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:58.640 apparently in some flophouse outside of Pittsburgh, and there were 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.640 guys blowing the lead thieves in Simon Hunter's yard for 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:05.680 over seventy five minutes, So shout out for those guys. 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.760 Definitely getting paid by the hour in the interest of 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.240 cleaning up that episode, so it didn't sound like you 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:15.200 were enjoying it. From inside a seven forty seven engine, 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.360 it'll sound a little bit strange, but at least you 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.760 can hear everything just fine, and everything looks okay, so 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.839 again I want to apologize. We'll get ched back into 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:26.440 his house and had this ready to go on Sunday. 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.079 So thank you for joining us and for bearing with us. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:32.160 All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:35.679 give out our picks. Every week, Simon's fellow program Gambler's 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.960 call to yell at him about those picks. He's going 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:42.200 to summarize those opinions for us. Right now, it's time 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:44.000 for sharp calls. 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:51.519 I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain, 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:52.799 telephone ring. 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.560 Somebody say it maybe what to do? 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:56.440 Man? 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:59.359 Yeah, for a game. I totally disagree on it. I'm 0:02:59.360 --> 0:02:59.880 on the bills. 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:01.840 I love Houston tonight, So I know we're not really 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:05.200 going to talk much about that one. Haven't flipped me, 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.120 but I just I'm just not gonna put as much 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:08.560 money in the buffalo. I just know a lot of 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.440 really smart groups that I've had Houston at plus six, 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:13.680 they just really like this number in the spot for them. 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:15.880 I just I can't get there. I can't trust Davis 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:18.000 Mills my money again. So I don't know where you're 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.680 at with that one, but I just. 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.920 I'm definitely going to be on Houston at plus six 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.119 I just I love this defense so much. I can't 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:28.120 quit this defense. And I feel like I'm looking at 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:32.040 a Bills team that just had a miracle game, and 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:33.720 we're going to talk about the Bucks in a little bit. 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:36.040 A miracle game against the Bucks. So they went from 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.560 one down to winning by twelve and Josh Allen, you know, 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:43.480 played Superman on a short week. I like the Texans 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:45.080 in this spot. I think the number's gotten too big, 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.680 all right, So that's Houston and Buffalo. You're on Buffalo, 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.840 I'm on Houston. The wise guys are with me. 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:51.720 What else? 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:55.720 We got another game they're against me the Giants. Shockingly. 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.920 A lot of love for the Giants, but I think 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.920 they're just missing a unique spot here, and they really 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:03.800 are playing Russian Roulette con James two weeks in a row. 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:06.320 So I just that's a game we can talk about 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:06.600 some more. 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.400 But we're going to get on Detroit. Good. 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:10.440 I am too. 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:15.440 Games that, you know, I think it's split both sides. 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:17.680 I know tons of pros on the Chiefs. I'm on 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:20.520 the Colts. I know tons of pros that really really 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:25.320 like Minnesota. I'm on Green Bay. Another game, pretty split 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.919 on Atlanta, New Orleans pros are really split on that 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:31.520 one this week, and you know, we've talked a little 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:36.000 bit about it the primetime games. La Bucks very split 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.479 between the pros, and so is Carolina in Tampa. 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:39.840 What I feel like a lot of people agree on 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:41.880 is the love for Dallas. That's a game. 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:43.839 I'm sure we're gonna dive more into all the pros. 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:45.640 I feel like we're all over Dallas. I think the 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.320 public shocking is joining them as well. 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:50.200 Since the game we talked a little bit about. 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:52.480 None of us knew Joe Burrow is gonna play, so 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.560 that numbers moved, but the pros love that. For what 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:56.800 I talked about, that was a huge spot to back 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:58.560 since as long as we need that, we either Joe 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:02.400 Burrow or Joe Flack, so that numbers really moved off 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.480 professional money and you know, last but not least, Pittsburgh, 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:08.200 we knew the program though we talked a little bit 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.400 about it. You knew the three was going to last, 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:13.840 so not too shocking. Tons of pros love for that one. 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:15.440 So there are a lot of split games where there 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:17.680 are just some sides where I feel like all the 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:18.760 professionals all lined up. 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:20.680 But take a lot of these dogs all right, Look, 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:22.400 a lot of these games are games that we had 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.640 talked about on Tuesday. We kind of had a feeling 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.520 that they would play out and be in sharp calls 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.240 and b games that we want to review today. One 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:33.280 of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:37.360 a lot Seattle, which is now a thirteen and a 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.799 half point favorite at Tennessee. We talked about it on Tuesday. 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:42.840 We better on Tuesday. We bettered at twelve and a 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:50.080 half on Tuesday. It's obviously moved up. To me, we 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:55.000 can say that the perceived value is lost in this game. 0:05:56.120 --> 0:06:00.000 What is value when it's a twelve and a half 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.240 point favorite and you like the favorite and that favorite 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:06.719 is on the road. That's the reality is we're betting 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:08.560 a huge favorite on the road against a team that 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.640 has backdoor to the past two weeks. And I think 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.880 my philosophy on this and why I like the Seahawks, 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.880 and we both liked it from the second we saw 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:21.480 the numbers on Sunday night, our Sunday night postgame show 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.279 is the Chargers have fatal flaws. They got back door. 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:30.840 The Texans have fatal flaws, especially offensively. They couldn't close 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.400 out no matter how many opportunities they had, they couldn't 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:37.719 close out that win and the cover on Sunday against 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.680 the Titans. The Seahawks don't have those fatal flaws. And 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.440 we're going to talk more about the Seahawks and the 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:45.800 Rams and the Rams and the Bucks and sort of 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:50.560 how to play these games later in the show. The 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.240 Seahawks had their disastrous game and still almost won. They're 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:57.640 just a dominant team. I can't see this defense giving 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:00.839 up more than seven points. So I'm still gonna like 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:01.880 the number at twelve and a half. 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:07.080 Yeah, really good team, really well coached, and you know, 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.040 there are some pros on the Titans. I just don't 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:12.000 think it's like the other games where they're putting big, 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.200 big money down on certain positions. Titans, they're better because 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:16.800 they feel like they have to write. Like you said, 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.120 they've been good to them. They've been back doing especially 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:21.400 since the coaching changed. They've they've really covered a lot 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.640 of spreads, which you know, we should have tooken advantage. 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:26.400 He was that terrible of coach. I didn't realize he 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.360 was that bad that he affected the number that much. 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:33.160 But yeah, hard Rock here in Jersey's back to thirteen. 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:33.800 So hard rock. 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.120 They've taken obviously some professional money here. Hit it back 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.320 down to thirteen. But like you said, I'm in on 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.240 Seahawks at thirteen. I'm in on the twelve and a half. 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:45.200 I just like the number, like the spot, and even 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:46.800 in minus thirteen eight, if I had to take it 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:48.120 under fourteen, I still would. 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:49.280 But you talk all the time. 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.240 We just don't take big spreads like this because you 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.360 need a lot of things that go your way, right. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.720 You need to play really well and not to have. 0:07:55.680 --> 0:08:00.920 Bad bounces that just happens in football. So shocking that 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.480 this is probably the number one and number two. 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.440 Biggest bet of the week by the public, right by 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.960 spread money line teasers. Everyone's just lined up with sholks. 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:10.800 Everyone agrees with us. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:12.880 It's just like, this is a really well coached team 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:14.120 does really well. 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:15.120 In the ruin the cover a lot. 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:17.840 So if you're scared off on this, I mean you're 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.080 scared of the number, just put it on an our 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.440 money line around Robin with the favorites, get it down 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:23.680 to six and a half or five and a half 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:25.880 if you need to the Seahawks. But I'm not too 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:29.040 scared off of this number. I bet at this big number, uh. 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:33.160 New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. You just mentioned 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:36.839 this in sharp calls. This line has moved from ten 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:42.280 and a half to ten. This was Simon says on 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.360 Tuesday when it was at ten and a half. It's 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:48.480 now gone the other direction. The Wise guys are like 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.880 in the Giants. I don't get it, to be honest, 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:55.760 this feels like the exact smash spot that you want 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.520 to get in on the Lions. The Lions at home 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:03.440 this year have been destroying bad competition, and you laid 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.680 it out on Tuesday all the reasons why you want 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.560 to back Dan Campbell and Jared Goff off of a loss, 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:11.360 off of a bad loss, off of a bad loss 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:15.079 on the road when they are getting back home. I 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:19.920 loved betting Jamis on Sunday when we got back on 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:23.720 the roller coaster. I don't like betting Jamis his second 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.280 game where he's going into a much more challenging environment. 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.599 So I'm with you. Even though the Wise guys be 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.120 in sharp calls they said they're betting on the Giants. 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.000 You and I are aligned, my friend, we are on 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:36.160 the Detroit Lions. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:38.640 Yeah and everyone. So if there's a little murmur in 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:40.600 the background. Am getting my leaves done? I know there 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:41.960 might be a little bit of noise. 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:43.800 But you're so bougie. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:48.000 It is late fall here in the Northeast. Yeah, I 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:51.840 just I get it. It's fun betting Jamis and the Giants. 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:53.720 You expect them to able to pass the ball downfield 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:57.360 against this banged up secondary that you know, the lines 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.839 have been pretty suspect this season, but like you just said, 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.120 we've seen time and time again the lines beat up 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:05.920 on bad teams, especially teams if there's a coaching advantage, 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:08.400 And this feels like a great matchment, just offensively. 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:10.440 So I'm not gonna go through all the trends again. 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:11.800 I people want to hear all the trends that read 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.959 out check out Tuesday show, but it's not only is 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:16.880 a great match up on paper and through the numbers, 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.480 but there's tons of data and trends that show this 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.480 spot is unique to this Lion's team with Golf and Campbell, 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:24.000 and they usually win and cover. 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.000 The one I will bring up again is when they're. 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:31.360 Above a four favorite and after a loss at home 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.080 eight to no against the spread in this exact spot, 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.480 So play the number here we'll take the lines. And 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.640 like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:41.920 give out double digit favorites. Is my favorite bet of 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.480 the week, But I thought I was gonna keep going up. 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:46.719 Like you just said, Chat, it's down to ten out 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.160 of hard rock, So I'm gonna take that value and 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:49.040 bet the number again. 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.400 Yeah, I'm a little surprised, to be honest, that people 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:53.920 would be investing in the Giants in their second game 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:59.480 with a with a interim replacement head coach and truly 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.720 defense that they cannot stop the run. And they just 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.880 had you know, Abdua Carter have to sit out a 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:11.360 series because he missed a practice because he just didn't attend. 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:13.520 It sounded like he missed the practice because he was injured, 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.880 missed the practice because he overslept. So this is not 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:21.560 a team that is defensively in its best place right now. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.400 And they're going against the Lions team. You know, they 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.560 are going to try to run the ball as much 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.120 as they possibly can. That is their advantage. And the 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:30.800 Ryans are the kind of team that when they run 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:34.560 the ball, they find ways to score in bunches. They 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:36.760 have enough talent that they can get down the field quickly, 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.240 as quickly as anyone else can with the passing game. 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:42.320 So I'm with you. I like the Lions here. I'm 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:47.640 not afraid of it. Pittsburgh and Chicago. This one has 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:52.120 moved in the Steelers direction, which we expected. We talked 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.640 about it on Tuesday. It was at three. It's now 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:58.080 at two and a half. Aaron Rodgers, we don't know 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:01.240 if he's going to play. It's not a surgething. It's 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.079 just about can he be safe with his particular injury 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.320 on Sunday against the Bears. We will have to see 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:13.400 about that, but it hasn't really mattered. The Bears are 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:15.280 not the team that the wise guys want to back 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:16.320 this week. 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:18.839 I guess we're on the same boat. It's about the number. 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:20.920 If I'm going to make a bet on this game, 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:22.000 I wanted to be on the three. 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:23.600 I'm not gonna let two and a half scare me off. 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.920 If that's what it is. Come Sunday and Rodgers is cleared. Great. 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.120 If it moves a ton because Rodgers is out and 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:32.679 it goes up to three and a half, four, all right, great. 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.040 I just I can't lose here, so to me, just 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:38.600 be patient. Let the number move if it needs to, 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:41.520 but you've seen it this week. A ton of games aremoved. 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.400 So yeah, it's weird, it isn't it isn't it? It 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.520 seems like the books kind of put up numbers and 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.160 they're letting the pros dictate it rather than staying just 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:52.560 you know, holding a line on a certain number. So 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.240 I would say the most shocking part is just so 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:59.240 many games the dogs have moved down. That's been because 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.240 we've talked about this year been really good for the favorite. 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:05.120 So yeah, there is another game where Rogers game out 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.400 news he might play, he might toughen it out, and 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.439 the number did dips, So a couple three still out there, 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.280 But all the main books I'm seeing is two and 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:15.600 a half. So yeah, I just look at the matchup wise. 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.280 I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:21.800 a lot of ways, but it's we go back to it. 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:23.640 It's how long can they keep getting away with this? 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.199 They're just not that good of a team that has 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.280 a ton of wins. But if this drops some more 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:31.679 and it is Rogers back, I'm gonna end up on 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.520 the Bear's chat. But at two and a half, I'll 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:35.920 still be on Pittsburgh. Once the tips flow too, it's 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.480 like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:40.680 eavily matched team and Bears do have somewhat of home 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:41.360 field advantage. 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.840 So I just if it moves too much off the 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.160 Rogers News, I'll take a position on the Bears if 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:46.560 I need to. 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:48.520 Well, look, you said it the other day that the 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:50.520 Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season. 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.920 And my buddy Andy, who've talked about on the show, 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:56.959 just texted me that line because he loved it so much, 0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.880 because it kind of captures everything that every Bears fan 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:02.800 is thinking about this team right now. There's sort of 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.920 this foreboding sense of dread about the Bears and how 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.760 good they are. 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:10.280 That way I would go, it's got to be the 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.040 opposite way. It's like, man, this is this is the dream. 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.440 You're winning, You're stealing a winning game you shouldn't because 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:16.280 you have a good coach. 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:17.679 I mean, that's which. 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.080 Is great, But we also have to ask ourselves. We 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.359 keep winning games against bad teams in the final seconds. 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:27.920 So are we a good team that is learning how 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.400 to win? Are we a mediocre team that is just 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.200 getting the right bounces at the right times against other 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.680 bad to mediocre teams. Those are the questions that as 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.520 Bears fans, obviously we're enjoying it, we love it, but 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.080 we can't help but be ready to be snake bitten 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:45.720 by a team that still has seven games left and 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.960 could just as easily, by the way, be three and 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:52.000 seven or four and six right now as they are 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:56.200 seven and three. So this next seven games, there's still 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.600 a wide variance in how good this team can actually perform. 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:02.120 I agree, New. 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.760 England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:09.040 half point dog. Crazy crazy swings in this game on 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.800 six and a half at hard Rock bats, seven other places. 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.560 This game, it was seven and a half on Tuesday. 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.040 We thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. We 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.160 knew there would be no Jamar Chase at some point. 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.960 I know in my notes, I saw this game go 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.000 to eight and a half, and now it's down to 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.400 six and a half. We're talking about Joe Burrow. We're 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.080 still getting seventy percent of the bets coming in on 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.920 New England. But obviously news about who's going to be 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.960 playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:40.360 the market in this game. 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:47.040 Yeah, and it's kind of crazy that I was not 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:48.800 expecting Joe Brow. I don't know about you. 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.600 I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving, yeah, or 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.240 after Thanksgiving, like Thanksgiven? Was me pushing it because it's 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.359 a Thursday game out see against that Ravens. 0:15:57.640 --> 0:15:59.640 But incredible. 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.920 We talk all the time just how far health, medicine, 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.600 all of it has come for these athletes, and like 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.760 the fact that he is backed potentially starting this week 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:11.760 is pretty incredible. 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:16.960 So Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow. 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.400 That was the most shocking part to me. It only 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:20.000 moved the point. 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:21.640 It only moved the most books of seven and a 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:25.240 half to six and a half. So yeah, I don't know, 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:26.640 or I guess a couple of books did touch eight 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.640 and a half. But yeah, I was just shocked it 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:32.680 only moved that much. Still, like Cincy, if it is 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:36.960 Joe Joe Burrow, you know a little worrisome because he 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:38.960 is coming in cold. I guess you could say, right, 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:40.160 he hasn't had the reps. 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:44.280 He's coming in in a weird spot, and you know 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.920 it's not ideal. But I still think you're getting a 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:47.440 great number. 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.040 I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team, 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:51.920 Like I gave out that stat, it's just never a 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:53.640 good stat. 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:53.680 Or good spot. 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.560 I should say to be in an h eight game 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.720 win streak on the road as a big favorite, and 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.080 the number has moved from maybe I'm overreading if there 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:03.880 is value on the Patriots now, but I still think 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.159 this is the Bengal's number. Like to me, Joe Burrow 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.920 if he was healthy mid season playing, even if the 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:12.720 record is what it is, this line would not be 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.920 above three and a half four. So are we getting 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.640 an extra two and a half points becuz it's Joe 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.280 Burrow coming a little cold and the books don't really 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.479 know how to price it and there's no chase, like 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:23.320 you know, it's just. 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:25.359 I see why the public is still going to be 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:26.280 on this Patriots team. 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.000 So I went from liking the Bengals team to like 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.040 kind of loving this spot now, where it's like, this 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.080 is the exact situation you want to be and it's 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:37.400 just it depending on the number. I people don't feel 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.879 comfortable now that it's moved off to seven. I get it, 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:41.560 but every book is six and a half. You're just 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.400 that's what it is. So once again. Like I said 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:46.359 on Tuesday, I wasn't rushed making people rush to bed 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:47.920 it because I didn't knowho the quarterback was going to be. 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:50.560 I had no idea it was gonna be Joe Burrow. 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.200 So I hope people grabbed it. I said, I bet 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.800 it on Tuesday at the seven. At this point, I'm 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:57.880 gonna bet it again just in case it keeps dropping 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:00.600 with In fact, if it's Joe Brow gets clear, does 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:01.680 move the four four and a half. 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:05.040 So I like this number. But again it's hard for 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:05.520 me to tell. 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.440 People to bet it because if he's out and is 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.160 Joe Flacco right up to seven and a half, eight, 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:10.760 this would go. 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.160 So it's a unique spot betting this number right. 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:16.760 So we should be clear. Joe Burrow practice on Wednesday, 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:21.720 full participant. We are recording this on Thursday midday. The 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.080 Bengals have not had a practice yet, or at least 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:25.920 not have indicated if Joe Burrow is going to be 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:29.399 a full participant participant on Thursday. Zach Taylor has not 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:32.679 said Joe Burrow was starting on Sunday, but the hope 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.240 is that he can play on Sunday. They wanted to 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.200 see how he did the rest of this week in practice. 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:40.880 So the line is based on speculation of the move 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:44.800