1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: JJ zacher reson. 3 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 2: What's up everyone. 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eleven thirteen of the 5 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,159 Speaker 1: Before we get into this week's mail by questions, I 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: just want to send another reminder to check out the 9 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: Late Round Draft Guide. There's over two hundred and seventy 10 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways of spot, 11 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: breakouts and bus players, the target players to avoid, and more. 12 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: You get cheat sheets in the guide, which includes a 13 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: cheat sheet of our new market score metric. It's all 14 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: updated weekly directly to your email inbox. Check it out 15 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: and learn more over on lateround dot com. The first 16 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: question this week is from Troy from the Members Hub. 17 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: It says, Hey, JJ, sorry for the lengthy question. I 18 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: have picked twelve in my twelve team league. In these 19 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: early mocks, I often find myself to making some combination 20 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: of Gentie Barkley, Hampton Chase Brown at the one two 21 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: turn due to their being much more quality running backs 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: there than wide receivers. At the three to four turn, 23 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm often taking Davante Flowers, Ladd Higgins burden. My question 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: is do you feel comfortable going into the season with 25 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 1: your top wideouts being from that tier. The short answer 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: is yes, I'm fine with that. I'm a huge fan 27 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: of that tier of wide receivers for upside purposes. So 28 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: if you're throwing multiple darts at it, you're increasing your 29 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: odds of hitting on one. 30 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: Of those players. 31 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: I also think double tapping running back at the back 32 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: end of drafts this year is a super strong approach. 33 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: You've got to spend money to make money at running back. 34 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: I say it in the draft guide every year. The 35 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: elite players at the position, the ones who are giving 36 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: you a huge edge in fantasy football, they're almost always 37 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: drafted early. Now you get a similar dynamic of wide receiver. 38 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, but as you noted, the quality 39 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: of fantasy player at that stage in the draft is 40 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: much more attractive at running back than it is wider receiver. Now, 41 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: scoring lineup settings that all should dictate which direction you 42 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: go in. But let it be known that you shouldn't 43 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 1: feel uncomfortable with this approach given the upside that you 44 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: can get at wide receiver in that three four turn area. 45 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: Not only that in non best ball environments, you'll have 46 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: a chance to potentially get another good upside receiver in 47 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: round five. That's honestly how I would approach a lot 48 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: of normal drafts from the eleven or twelve spot this year. 49 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: This that's question is also from the Membershub. It's from 50 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: at Elmatic twenty seven. It says, hi, jj, I have 51 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: a question, what's your take on drafting two quarterbacks in 52 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: redraft leagues that start only one quarterback, Say the roster's 53 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, 54 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: one flex, and six bench spots. Is it worth using 55 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: a bench spot on a second quarterback in this type 56 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: of leak? And if so, under what circumstances? For example, 57 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: if I land Alan or Lamar, I feel like grabbing 58 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: another one late isn't worth it. But if I take 59 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: maleak Willis at the end, would it be better to 60 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: pair him with a high floor quarterback like goth or 61 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: instead go for an upside guy like Tyler Shuck or 62 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: cam Ward as a second quarterback. 63 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 2: Thanks. I feel like there's an idea. 64 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: Out there because I hear about this a lot that 65 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: I'm totally against rostering two quarterbacks in fantasy football. 66 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 2: It couldn't be further from the truth. 67 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: I've even had seasons of the Draft Guide where I 68 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: wrote about doing this exact same thing, getting two later 69 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: round quarterbacks as opposed to spending up on one. When 70 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: you take a quarterback early, you're taking on a massive 71 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: opportunity cost. That's obviously the downside. It's not that we 72 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: don't want Josh Allen on our fantasy teams, is that 73 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: drafting Josh Allen means you're missing out in some really 74 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: good running backs and wide receivers. But this is a 75 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: little like the question before. You can take multiple players 76 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: at a discount at a particular position, and when you 77 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: take multiple players, you're increasing your odds of hitting on 78 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: one of those players. This is why we don't just 79 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: roster film when we're drafting our fantasy teams. You'll see 80 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: in a lot of inexperienced rooms where people just draft 81 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: a running back, they draft another one, they get a 82 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: couple of wide receivers, and then they say, oh, I've 83 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: got to get my quarterback and tight end because they're 84 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: in my starting lineup. 85 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 2: I'll draft them right now. 86 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: The obvious problem with that is that they're not considering 87 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: hit rates and where they can get the same caliber 88 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: players later in the draft. You're not guaranteed your pick 89 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 1: hitting when you draft them. If you take Luther Burden, 90 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: you're not guaranteed that Burden ends up hitting. But if 91 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: you get Burden and then you draft Jalen Waddle, then 92 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: you're increasing your chances of getting a good wide receiver 93 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: on your team. It's not all reliant on Burden, but 94 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 1: you've got a chance now with Wattle too. It's no 95 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: different at quarterback. Your goal is to get an every 96 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: week starter. Your goal is not to stream the position. 97 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: That's the fallback plan, and one way to do that 98 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: is to draft two higher upside quarterbacks late. You won't 99 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: take on a high cost. The cost is essentially a 100 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: bench spot. This is much easier to do in deeper 101 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 1: leagues for sure, Like I did the King's Classic last 102 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: week at the Fantasy Football Expo, where we have fourteen 103 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: teams in the league and it's really deep rosters. Because 104 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: of that, quarterback matters a little bit less. We have 105 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: two running backs in our starting lineup, three wide receivers, 106 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: three flex spots, and one tight end. The demand grows 107 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: for these non quarterback positions and that makes quarterback less 108 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: valuable in that kind of format. Now it's a sharp room. 109 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: So Josh Allen fell in the draft, but I didn't pounce. 110 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: I instead waited, and I waited because I really do 111 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: think the quarterback position is very deep this year. That's 112 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: what I did that episode in the late round quarterback 113 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: strategy just. 114 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 2: A couple of weeks ago. 115 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: But people started taking backup quarterbacks before I had my starter. 116 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,799 Speaker 1: That's when I knew I had to go after my quarterback. 117 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: Otherwise there's a chance I could have been locked out 118 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: at the position. So what did I do? 119 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 2: Well? 120 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: I was at the one oh one spot and at 121 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: the twelve thirteen turn, and remember this is a fourteen 122 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: team league, so it's a deep part of the draft. 123 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: Where the pick before was Ia Teslaw and the pick 124 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: after my quarterback was Emmett Johnson. But actually I double 125 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: tapped quarterback. I got bow Nix and then I got 126 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 1: Tyler Shuck. I got a relatively stable piece who still 127 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,720 Speaker 1: has some upside in bow Nicks, and then the pure 128 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: upside play and Shuck. So if you're thinking about getting 129 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: Malik Willis this year, which I think a lot of 130 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: you guys should, I like pairing Malik Willis. 131 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 2: With a more stable piece. 132 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be another late round quarterback, because 133 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: generally speaking, really good quarterbacks, the stable quarterbacks Jared Goff, 134 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: maybe Brock Purty, even who I do have ranked well 135 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: ahead of Goff, those guys are still gonna go pretty 136 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: late in your drafts. So you can absolutely pair that 137 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: kind of player with Malik Willis. So yes, the TLDR 138 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: here is that you can definitely get two quarterbacks, especially 139 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: if it's in a deep draft where the waiver wire 140 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 1: won't be filled with great starters, where the backup plan, 141 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: the fallback plan, it's not as easy to stream. Just 142 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 1: make sure that you're not spending up at the position. 143 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: Get two guys late. This last questions from at J 144 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: underscore s underscore Stove on Twitter. It says, I remember 145 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: an episode a couple of years ago where you laid 146 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: out that taking a running back in around seven to 147 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: ten ish when they had a teammate going in the 148 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: dead zone. 149 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 2: Was a good bet. 150 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: Has that data still been supported the last couple of seasons? 151 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: And how does it translate to twenty twenty six. So, 152 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: on one hand, I'm happy that I've been able to 153 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: come up with new ideas and new research over the years. 154 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: But on the other hand, the problem with research is 155 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: that it evolves, and some people remember something that you 156 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: did like five years ago, and that something has just changed, 157 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: gotten better, or it's just not relevant anymore. The idea 158 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: at a high level here generally is not wrong. But 159 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: I've stopped talking about the dead zone in that way, 160 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: and I've stopped having round cutoffs in that way because 161 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: it doesn't allow people to be loose and reactive when 162 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: they draft. They're too confined. The idea here, though, is 163 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: that when a middle round running back has a teammate 164 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: who isn't being drafted super high, like as a top twelve, 165 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: top eighteen running back, that often is giving us some information. 166 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: It's what I've always called ambiguous backfields. The starter might 167 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: be kind of clear, but it's not totally clear. Otherwise 168 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: that starter probably would have been going earlier in the draft, 169 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: or the middle round running back wouldn't be a middle 170 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: round running back, he'd be a late round running back. 171 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: But also think of it this way. If you have 172 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: two running backs from the same team that are being 173 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: drafted in like the top thirty six, let's say, and 174 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: the RB one out of those two backs is getting 175 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: selected maybe at RB twenty, the RB two, maybe at 176 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: RB thirty five. That's telling us that the offensive situation 177 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: is probably pretty good. The market is drafting two running 178 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: backs from the same offense with relatively high draft capital. 179 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: Now we know as the season goes on a lot 180 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: of these backfields they just stay split. That's one of 181 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: the problems from an interpretation standpoint that we run into 182 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: with the ambiguous backfield idea. It's not that one one 183 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: of the players in the backfield will definitely emerge, it's 184 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: that they do at a relatively decent rate, at a 185 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: better rate than a handcuff or a backup to an 186 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: elite running back would, whether due to just talent beating 187 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: out talent, or an injury to one of the other 188 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: running backs. There are multiple outs for one of those 189 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: ambiguous backfield backs, and if there are multiple outs in 190 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: a good offense, then that means there's a lot of upside. 191 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: But you don't need to look at this through the 192 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: lens of dead zone or not dead zone. You can 193 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: generally look at it as is he backing up an 194 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: elite player, And then you can also do what I 195 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: do in the draft guide, which is relate that player's 196 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: backfield to expected fantasy points by ADP. That expected fantasy 197 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: points number is driven by ADP of the running backs 198 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: in that backfield, so hopefully that helps. I'm trying to 199 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: be a little bit less confined with the parameters these 200 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: days because it gives you a little bit more flexibility 201 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: when you're drafting. We just need to understand the idea 202 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: at a high level. It's just a smarter way to 203 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: do things in my opinion. This asks questions from Nick. 204 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: It says I'm wondering how a chopped league changes draft 205 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: strategy or the opportunity cost equation. I got pick eighteen 206 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: of eighteen and am thinking about if a onesie position 207 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: such as brock Bowers becomes better or worse in the format. 208 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: On one hand, I understand an early onesie with this 209 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: many teams is less than optimal. On the other hand, 210 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: players I am passing on will be re entering the 211 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: player pool. Plus I can almost completely eliminate tight end 212 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: for my free agent auction budget. 213 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for all the hard work you do, so for 214 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 2: anyone who doesn't know. 215 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,839 Speaker 1: In a chopped league or guillotine league, you typically start 216 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 1: with eighteen teams and one team. The lowest scoring team 217 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 1: gets eliminated each week. That person's team then goes onto 218 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 1: waivers and everyone can bid on those players the following week. 219 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: So part of the question here is saying, if I 220 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: have brock Bowers, I won't have to care about going 221 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: after tight ends when I go get players off waivers. 222 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: But you're missing half the story here. You're only looking 223 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 1: at it from the angle of brock Bowers. You're not 224 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 1: looking at it from the angle of why can't the 225 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: brock Bowers team lose in a given week, allowing you 226 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: a chance to get Bowers with your free agent budget, 227 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 1: or worst case scenario, why can't I, the team who 228 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: drafts brock Bowers be the one who loses the bottom 229 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: line is that you're answering this question with your own question. 230 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: You know that a onesie position is suboptimal with more 231 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 1: teams in your league, because more teams means you're drafting 232 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: even more running backs and wide receivers than you typically would, 233 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: double or even triple sometimes the rate. 234 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 2: As tight ends. 235 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 1: Going with a player like Bauers, who I absolutely love 236 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: this year, it's a high risk move when you want 237 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: the opposite in this format, because you have a ninety 238 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: four percent chance to advance in week one and a 239 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: greater than ninety percent chance to advance for most of 240 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: the season, the opportunity cost becomes greater to take on Bowers. 241 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: I don't think he's attractive in that kind of format, 242 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: just like a player like Josh Allen's not attractive. There's 243 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: too big of a cost involved, so I would not 244 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: get cute and overthink it. This last questions from Mike, 245 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: it says, hey, JJ love the show, so base shall 246 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: Tutan's cost seems to be at a point where he 247 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: needs to hit in order to pay off. But I'm 248 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: not convinced that the Jags are ready to just give 249 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: him a full workload. They brought in c Rod for 250 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: a reason, and Dobbin's being their first choice shouldn't simply 251 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: erase that fact. Factoring in Lawrence's ability as a rusher 252 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: as well. Is it possible that we're getting to take 253 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: locked into the narrative that hashtag all roads lead to 254 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: bashall Tutan, and that it's causing us to overlook the 255 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: reality that coaches don't always deploy their personnel the way 256 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: that we in the community think that they should or 257 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: hope they will. 258 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 2: Thanks. 259 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: I mean, look, of course, coaches don't deploy their personnel 260 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: all the time the way that we want them to. 261 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:51,199 Speaker 1: That happens all the time. 262 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: Every year. 263 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: We're projecting what we think will and should happen, not 264 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: necessarily what it actually does. 265 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 2: I'm going to be wrong a lot this year. That's 266 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 2: just the nature of fantasy football. 267 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:03,719 Speaker 1: But I've noticed that anytime there's like some sort of 268 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: bit like this, people seem to think that that bit 269 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: isn't grounded in reality. I started saying all roads lead 270 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: to Beshall Tutin last year is just a fun reference 271 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: to the fact that I thought eventually Tutin would get 272 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: his chance. But I don't say something like that or 273 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: feel that way without actually having data and thoughtfulness behind it. 274 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: Let's discuss this question item by item. You first say 275 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: that Tuton's cost seems to be at a point where 276 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: he needs to hit in order to pay off. I 277 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 1: would say that's the case for most players, especially in 278 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: the earlier rounds. But yes, in order for him to 279 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: pay off, he probably can't be the RB two in 280 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: that backfield behind Chris Rodriguez. Of course I would agree there, 281 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: and maybe you feel like the other running back bets 282 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 1: in that range don't have quite the same type of competition. 283 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: Maybe you think Quinnshaw Judkins is a safer bet because 284 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: Dylan Sampson won't be the browns RB one or Cam 285 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: Skatoboo versus Tyrone Tracy or David Montgomery. 286 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: Versus Woody Marks. 287 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: My argument from a competition standpoint is that I don't 288 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: think Chris Rodriguez is an undeniable talent. We're talking about 289 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: a Day three selection, one who went significantly later in 290 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: his draft than base Shall Tuton went in his and 291 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: Rodriguez has quite literally never been a high volume pass 292 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: catcher throughout his entire career, including college. He's good at 293 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: breaking tackles, He's good at getting those tough yards for sure. 294 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: I think he's a good enough early down runner, but 295 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: he doesn't have the same big play profile that Tuton has. 296 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: He doesn't have the pass catching profile that Tuton has. 297 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: Rodriguez has gained twenty or more yards on one point 298 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: five percent of his career runs. The league average in 299 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: the NFL during this time two point one percent. 300 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 2: Now, I get it. 301 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: Tutin didn't do anything in that department last year either, 302 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: not until the playoffs. It's a fair counterpoint. Maybe Tuton's 303 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: also not explosive. I just have a hard time believing 304 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: a player who ran a four to three to two 305 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: and who had an eighty second percentile explosive run rate 306 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: is all of a sudden not explosive at the NFL level? 307 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 2: Is it that? Or you just happened to. 308 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: Not break a long play on a relatively small sample, 309 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: which is a sample that included a lot of short 310 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: yardage work. 311 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 2: And that brings me to my next point about Tuton. 312 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: There's definitely an assumption out there that Chris Rodriguez is 313 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: gonna be the goal line and the short yardage back. 314 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: Now that might happen again, I think, in range of outcomes. 315 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: But keep in mind that the Jags gave touton seven 316 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: goal line rushes last year versus Travis a chans Etn's twelve. Proportionally, 317 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: much more of Tuton's rush attempts came at the goal 318 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: line than etns guys. I don't know if I should 319 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: call him a Chan or ETN. You guys let me 320 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: know in the comments. Tutin converted five of those seven 321 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: rush attempts. He was great at the goal line. Chris 322 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: Rodriguez has seven touchdowns on nineteen goal line rushes throughout 323 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: his career. There were some metrics last year where Etn 324 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: was better than Tuton. Tuten, remember was just a rookie, 325 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: but Touton at a success rate that was eleven percentage 326 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: points higher than Travis A chance you see how I'm 327 00:15:58,800 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: interchanging the names. 328 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 2: I know it's confusing. 329 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: I don't know what to say about his last name, 330 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: but Tuton's success rate was eleven percentage points higher. He 331 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: had an EPA per rush that was better. His yards 332 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: after contact per attempt was three point three to one 333 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: versus three point zero eight. That's according to PFF. And 334 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 1: by the way, that stat will get cited often with 335 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: Chris Rodriguez. But Chris Rodriguez wasn't so substantially better than 336 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: bay Shall Tutan and yards after contact per attempt last 337 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: year he was at three point four to six. Again, 338 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: Tuten was at three point three to one. They were 339 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: both top fifteen running backs within that metric, and he 340 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: was also second on the commanders in that metric behind 341 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: Jacorey Krosky Merit and guys, remember Bayshall, Tuton was a 342 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: rookie all the while, Like I said, Rodriguez has never 343 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 1: been a high target earner. He's maxed out at a 344 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: one point two percent target chair in a given season 345 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: in the NFL. Last year, in a split backfield as 346 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: a first year player, base Shall, Tuton was at two 347 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: point nine percent. Rodriguez had a pro rated best season 348 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: reception share in college in the eleventh percentile, and his 349 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: age and schedule just at receiving yards per team pass 350 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 1: attempt mark was in the sixth percentile, meaning he wasn't 351 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: giving us the goods as a receiver in college at all, 352 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: and he hasn't done that in the NFL at the 353 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 1: very least. Tuton was in the eighty eighth and the 354 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 1: sixty first percentiles within those two metrics, he actually does 355 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 1: have some sort of pass catching backbone. In the end, 356 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: I really do think that we're looking at a situation 357 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: where Tutin could inherit last year's etn role and Rodriguez 358 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: could take on Tuton's role. Of course, that could be wrong. 359 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: Of course, coaches don't just do what we want them 360 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: to do or what we think they should do. And yes, 361 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,719 Speaker 1: there were reports that the Jags wanted Dobbins and they 362 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: settled on Rodriguez. I don't necessarily think that's a surprise. 363 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 1: Though they weren't going to go into the season with 364 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: bay Shall, Tuton and LeQuinn Allen at running back. They 365 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 1: needed to add a veteran. They needed another body. But 366 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: it's also what we're working with with the backfield right now. 367 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,959 Speaker 1: It's what we have to evaluate. This is the competition 368 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,640 Speaker 1: and the funny thing is given cost. I actually don't 369 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: think Rodriguez is a fade, especially in best Ball. Best 370 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: ball is a great place to draft Chris Rodriguez. I 371 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 1: just think in a managed season long league, I want 372 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: to swing big and historically fifth sixth round picks. He's 373 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: at the five to sixth turn right now. In non 374 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 1: best ball leagues, base y'all, tutonis those hit rates are 375 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 1: not super strong to begin with, so let's go for 376 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: that triple, maybe even a home run instead of the single. 377 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: The last one this week is also from someone named 378 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: Mike and it says, hey, JJ, thanks for tuning into 379 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 1: my question. Why are people so low on devon a 380 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: Chan He was a beast last year and he was 381 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: in a bad offense, So why are we worried about 382 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 1: the offense this year? 383 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 2: Make it make sense? 384 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: So let me first get out of the way that 385 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm below market with a Chan this year. But Achan's 386 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: also a good example of where best ball and managed 387 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: season long ADP don't really line. In bestball, you'll get 388 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: him at the end of this giant tier of round 389 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,439 Speaker 1: two running backs. A lot of times, like late second 390 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: round eight, Chan will fall to. But if you look 391 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: at ESPN or CBS, he's RB five over on Yahoo 392 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: he's RB eight. That's a lot higher than where he 393 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,719 Speaker 1: goes in best Ball. So keep that in mind. Now, 394 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: as someone who's been very in on a Chan since 395 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: he's entered the league, the reason I'm more out this 396 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: year is definitely situation based. It's not always comfortable being 397 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 1: lower on objectively good players. Don't get me wrong, but 398 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: to me, that whole tier of running back is filled 399 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: with objectively good players and most of them don't have 400 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: the instability that a Chan's working with. And that's the thing. 401 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: To me, I think it's too binary to view this 402 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: offense is just good or bad. Like yes, last year's 403 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: Miami offense wasn't very good. I saw tweet floating around 404 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: this week from. 405 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 2: Zach Savage at Zack Savage. 406 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: On Twitter, and it said fade devon a Chan because 407 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense is projected to be bottom in the league, 408 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: and that was in quotes as if it was coming 409 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: from someone who was saying to fade a But then 410 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: Zach added, totally fair considering last year e Cham put 411 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: up twenty points per game in an elite Miami offense 412 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: that finished twenty fifth in points, twenty sixth, then yards 413 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 1: twenty eighth and first downs. So it's a sarcastic tweet 414 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: where he's saying, Hey, this Miami team sucked last year 415 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,719 Speaker 1: on offense. Therefore there's no reason to fade a chan 416 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: if the offense this year is gonna suck two and 417 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 1: I get it. But there was a great tweet also 418 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: on the other side of this from my friend Rich 419 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: Reebar this week at Lord Reeves on Twitter, where Rich 420 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 1: said the twenty twenty five Dolphins were certainly not a 421 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: good team, but there seems to be some notions that 422 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: they were an outright disaster. 423 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 2: This was a competitive team. They won seven games. 424 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,719 Speaker 1: They were sixteenth and snaps led one spot behind the Bills. 425 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: They were fourteenth and snaps trailing ahead of the Lions 426 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: and the Bills, and they even led by double digits 427 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: at the seventh highest snap rate. The twenty twenty six 428 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 1: Dolphins are currently favored in one game on their schedule 429 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: and are on average nearly a touchdown per game underdog. 430 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 1: That's thirty first in the league. These are not the 431 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: same environments. If that plays out closely to those expectations, 432 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: I think that's the nuance that we need when we're 433 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: talking about this offense. I talk about this in the 434 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: draft guide too. It's very clear that early round running 435 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: backs tend to underperform when their team environments are bad. 436 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: And I'm not saying this subjectively. There are preseason metrics 437 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: that we can look at to four more opinions about 438 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: team environment. One of them is just straight up win 439 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: totals late rounds. Brandon Goadola did research on this just 440 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: this week on how team totals can impact early round 441 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: running backs. Because this year we do have a handful 442 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: of early round running backs with low team win totals. 443 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: The research is actually pushing me away from being as 444 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 1: aggressive as I've been with Ashton genty. Admittedly, Bgdullah found 445 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 1: that of the fourteen running backs in our ADP database 446 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: who are drafted in the first two rounds with team 447 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 1: totals of seven or fewer, only seven percent of them 448 00:21:55,400 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: exceeded ADP expectation by four more PPR points per game. Context, 449 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: every other cohort that he looked at seven point five 450 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: to eight point five win total nine to nine point 451 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: five or ten or greater, each of them were at 452 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: twenty percent within that metric. The lower group was at 453 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: seven percent, and the low win total backs were worse 454 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: at exceeding expectation period, just twenty nine percent of them 455 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: beat their ADP expectation in points per game. Every other 456 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: group was above forty six percent. Meanwhile, on the Draft Guide, 457 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: I analyzed team environment scores, essentially a score given to 458 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: a running back based on where his teammates are going 459 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,919 Speaker 1: in fantasy drafts, based on their average draft positions, And 460 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: what I found was that we've had fourteen running backs 461 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 1: were top ten running backs since twenty fourteen who had 462 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: a team environment score below seventy five, which that's an 463 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: arbitrary number. You don't need to worry about that, but 464 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,479 Speaker 1: Devon Chan finds himself in this bucket. 465 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 2: This year. Twelve of those fourteen backs played eight or. 466 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: More games in the season that were analyzing, and only 467 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: three of them outperformed ADP expectation. The average back underperformed 468 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: by two PPR points per game, and as a group 469 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: they average fewer than fifteen PPR points per game. We 470 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,679 Speaker 1: have a ton of variability here. We don't know what 471 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: Malik Willis is. We don't have to say Willis won't 472 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 1: check down, but we can absolutely say we have no 473 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: freaking clue. 474 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 2: Does that mean it could end up being a great fit, 475 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 2: for sure? 476 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 1: But again, look at all the other running backs and 477 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 1: even the wide receivers going in that one two turn 478 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: area of drafts. There's either just as good of a 479 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: talent profile or there's a far better situation without this volatility. 480 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: This really goes back to just how I view fantasy 481 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: football in general. When I sit and I say that 482 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: I'm lower than the market on a player, it doesn't 483 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: mean that I'm incapable of seeing the upside. Case a 484 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: Chan could get peppered with targets in a bad offense 485 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: that's gonna see negative game scripts. I'm simply weighing the 486 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: range of outcomes here to the best of my ability, 487 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: and my conclusion is that I can't pay an RB 488 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 1: five type price tag for devon a Chan. 489 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 2: This year. That's it for today's show, though thanks to 490 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 2: all of you for listening. 491 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: If you've get to subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy 492 00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: Football podcast, make sure you are by stoting for it 493 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: too much anywhere podcasts can be found, and if it to, 494 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late 495 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: Round QB. Thanks for listening this week. Everyone greatly appreciate it. 496 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next week.