1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Kettas live weekdays at noon 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: and five pm E's durn on Apple Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where 7 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: we are laser focused on what is happening in the 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 2: Middle East in terms of the deployment of US military 9 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: assets to the region, as President Trump is yes, pushing 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: for a deal on Iran's nuclear program, but also is 11 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 2: warning and at least sending signals that use of force 12 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 2: is certainly not off the table at this time. The question, 13 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 2: of course, for markets, as we're seeing a move higher 14 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 2: in oil today of more than four percent on both 15 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 2: Brent and WTI, is how real, realistically close could we 16 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 2: be to another potential attack on Iran, knowing we just 17 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: saw one of these back in June on Iran's nuclear program. Specifically, 18 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 2: we asked this question to a member of the House 19 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 2: Intelligence Committee on Balance of Power yesterday evening. Democratic Congressman 20 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 2: Raja Krishna Murphy was with us, and this is what 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: he told us. 22 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: I'm concerned that we're going to potentially end up in 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 3: another war in the Middle East. 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 4: We don't want that. 25 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 3: The American people don't want that, and that's something that 26 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 3: comes out loud and clear. All that being said, Iran 27 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 3: should not have a nuclear weapon. It cannot have a 28 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: nuclear weapon. And I'm glad that there's negotiations also with 29 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 3: regard to ending their ballistic missile program and their nefarious 30 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 3: activities in the region. 31 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 4: But let's do it diplomatically. 32 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 3: Let's negotiate this diplomatically and concert with our friends, partners, 33 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 3: and allies. 34 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 5: Well, even as the administration pursues this diplomatic tract, we're 35 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 5: just dropping enormous amounts of military hardware into the region. 36 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 5: We've already talked about the USS Jerry Fords deeming its 37 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 5: way to the region to join the USS Lincoln Carrier 38 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 5: Strike Groups. To have two aircraft carriers is in itself 39 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 5: pretty remarkable when we now add in the past forty 40 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 5: eight hours forty eight F sixteen fighter jets, twelve F 41 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 5: twenty two's, eighteen F thirty five's six A wax aircraft 42 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 5: to conduct air traffic control in the midst of what 43 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 5: could be a huge operation, according to reporting at Axios, 44 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 5: a weeks long operation and some forty refueling aircraft. We're 45 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 5: gearing up for something. It's unclear what as We spend 46 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 5: some time with an expert on this matter, our own 47 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 5: Christina Rauffini, spent many years covering the State Department and 48 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 5: the Pentagon, and joins us right now the co host 49 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 5: Bloomberg This Weekend live in New York. Christina, it's great 50 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 5: to see you. Why would you move this much hardware 51 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 5: if you did not plan to use. 52 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 4: It, That's the thing, you know. 53 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 6: Sources I've talked to said they are feeling a little 54 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 6: better after these talks. Obviously no breakthroughs, but they're feeling 55 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 6: a little bit more positive. The caveat is that's a 56 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 6: lot of military hardware, and as we've seen historically, when 57 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 6: you have the big guns, you tend to want to 58 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 6: use them. And people are getting really nervous about this 59 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 6: a couple of reasons. One of the theories is the 60 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 6: president is bullish on this, coming off of a fairly 61 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 6: successful maneuver. If you're looking at what he wanted to 62 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 6: achieve in Venezuela, Iran is not Venezuela. Right. The US 63 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 6: has assets, the US has allies throughout the Middle list, 64 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 6: throughout the Middle East, that even a wounded Iran, even 65 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 6: a limited IRGC, can hit back, and can hit back badly. 66 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 6: So this is where you're getting even some Republicans saying, 67 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 6: let's take a diplomatic, you know, a more diplomatic approach. 68 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 6: But the US is saying to Iran, listen, you've got 69 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 6: two weeks to come back with a better plan. The 70 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 6: question is do they mean that or is that lip 71 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 6: service so they can say, look, we tried, we don't 72 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 6: like their plan. Now we're taking kinetic action. That's something 73 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 6: Israel would certainly like to see. We'll have to see 74 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 6: where this ends up. 75 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll have to see if Jared Kushner and 76 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 2: Steve Whitcoff are the two individuals who are able to 77 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 2: bring real progress on the diplomatic front despite not being 78 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: diplomats themselves, Christina. But not being diplomats hasn't stopped them 79 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: from being involved in these talks or the talks that 80 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 2: they are broker in between Russia and Ukraine, which after 81 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: ending after what less than two hours today, don't seem 82 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: to have yielded progress in the second day. Are we 83 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 2: getting any closer to potential resolution on some of the 84 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 2: big sticking point issues like the issue of territory in Ukraine? 85 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's interesting. Maybe they were trying to save air miles, 86 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 6: consolidate time. You know, we got two negotiations, no waiting. 87 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 6: They obviously weren't in the room for a lot of 88 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 6: the Iron negotiations, but all the delegations were there, moving 89 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 6: from hotel the hotel. 90 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 2: The thing with the Russian negotiations, you have to look 91 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 2: at them. 92 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 6: You know, Zelensky is now accusing Russia of dragging out 93 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 6: these negotiations. I think it's important to remember that Russia 94 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 6: is not negotiating for optics with Ukraine. The person Russia 95 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 6: is trying to get to do things in that room 96 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 6: is the US. Russia is trying to show just enough flexibility, 97 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 6: just enough impetus to convince the White House that they're 98 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 6: trying so that the you know, so that they can 99 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 6: keep President Trump on side, and saying that they're doing 100 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 6: their best. I think that's InCred frustrating for the Ukrainians. 101 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 6: It's obviously you could hear my voice. I've been on 102 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 6: the cold here in New York. It's much colder in 103 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:12,679 Speaker 6: Ukraine and the forces are depleted and exhausted. The longer 104 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 6: this war drags on, probably the better for Russia, and 105 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 6: they're taking advantage of that time in the room there 106 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 6: they need Zelensky needs the White House to hold Moscow 107 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 6: to account. We've seen flirtations with that, but they haven't 108 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 6: really done that yet, and so that's another thing. It's 109 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 6: a big waiting game as well to see how much 110 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 6: pressure Washington wants to put on Russia. 111 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: All right, Christina Raffini, co host of Bloomberg this weekend, 112 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 2: joining us from New York, thank you so much and 113 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: for more on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which 114 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 2: I would remind you as of next Tuesday will have 115 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 2: marked a four year milestone of that war. And joining 116 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 2: us now is William Taylor, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, 117 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 2: who was here with us in our Washington, d C. Studio. 118 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 2: So we're call it four years into this thing, mister ambassador, 119 00:05:57,960 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: and it's good to have you here on Bloomberg TV. 120 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 2: And after persisting for four years, we have not seen 121 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: any real change of tune or desire on the part 122 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 2: of Vladimir Putin. To at the very least capture the 123 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 2: territory in Ukraine that Russia currently holds. And we understand 124 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 2: that the territory issue is the one that really is 125 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 2: holding things up here. How is that possibly going to 126 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:21,679 Speaker 2: get resolved when you have Zelenski saying they aren't willing 127 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 2: to hand any of it over to Russia. 128 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 7: There are two opposite views. You're exactly right, there's no overlap. 129 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 7: The Ukrainians want to be a country, they want to 130 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 7: be a sovereign country, they want to live European that 131 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,159 Speaker 7: the Russians want them to surrender. The Russians want to 132 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 7: dominate Ukraine, take it over. There's no middle ground there. 133 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 7: Now there is a way to get to some kind 134 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 7: of a ceasefire. But Christine puts it exactly right. President 135 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 7: Trump needs to put the pressure on Putin. Putin without 136 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 7: that pressure is not going to agree to anything. 137 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 4: You're a diplomat. 138 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 5: You want to talk by nature, to keep talking to 139 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 5: solve problems. 140 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:05,679 Speaker 4: When is it appropriate not to talk? Is it not? Now? 141 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 4: Talking Joe is fine. 142 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 5: Talking is fine, but it's also rewarding sometimes to give 143 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 5: someone like Putin the platform. 144 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 7: Talking is fine, But you're exactly right. What that does 145 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 7: is drag it out, and Putin has been dragging it 146 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 7: out because he wants to grind away at the Ukrainians 147 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 7: day after day, month after month, year after year, as 148 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 7: you say, coming up on four years. 149 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 4: He thinks. 150 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 7: Putin thinks that this grind will eventually allow him to win. 151 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 4: He thinks that the Ukrainians will someday give up. They won't. 152 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 4: He thinks someday the Europeans will back away from you. 153 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 4: They're not. Europeans are really stepping up. 154 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 7: Putin hopes that the Americans will get tired and lose interest, 155 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 7: and so far, to be fair to the Trump administration, 156 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 7: they've not given up. 157 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 4: They're still focused. I mean, they're there in Geneva. 158 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 2: Today, but as you suggest, there's more pressure that they 159 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 2: could put on. As we talk about Putin dragging this on, 160 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 2: continuing on with this war, he has to be able 161 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 2: to continue to fund the war machine. In order to 162 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 2: do that. So is that really where the screws need 163 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: to be tightened? 164 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 4: Two screws need to be tightened, and that's one of them. 165 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 4: Absolutely right. 166 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 7: Putin funds this war by selling oil and gas to 167 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 7: the world, and he uses this shadow fleet, these tankers, 168 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 7: these old tankers that evade the sanctions. These old tankers 169 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 7: move oil from Russia to India and really to China. 170 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 7: And President Trump has shown that he knows how to 171 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 7: crack down on the shadow fleet. That would be a 172 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 7: big hit to the Russian ability. But the second piece, 173 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 7: the second screw, is long. 174 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 4: Range weapons for the Ukrainians. These are the Tomahawks. 175 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 7: These are This would allow the Ukrainians to put a 176 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 7: real dent, dent into the Russian war machine, going after 177 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 7: military targets in Russia. 178 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 4: That could do it. 179 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 7: Those two things on the military side and on the 180 00:08:58,559 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 7: economic side. 181 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 5: Russia seems to think, according to the narrative here in Washington, 182 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 5: that there's a window of opportunity here before the administration 183 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 5: starts to bear down on midterms, focus on domestic issues. 184 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 5: You've got the president's attention here. Maybe we can get 185 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 5: something favorable to Moscow. Knowing that, of course, Vladimir Putin 186 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 5: has offered nothing really to Ukraine. Does that create a 187 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 5: dangerous moment when you have Donald Trump hoping to make 188 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 5: a deal, he's assembling the board of peace here tomorrow, 189 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 5: and Vladimir Putin hoping to get this done in a 190 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 5: certain period of time or does it not work that 191 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 5: way in the world of diploma. 192 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 4: So I think it won't work that way, Joe. 193 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 7: I think the reason it won't is if President Trump 194 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 7: thinks he can lean on the Ukrainians who are the victors, 195 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 7: who want to be the victors, and. 196 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 4: They are the victims so far. 197 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 7: If President Trump thinkn lean on the Ukrainians as the victims, 198 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 7: that's not a win. 199 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 4: That's not a win. 200 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 7: If he forces a surrender, which the Ukrainians will resist, 201 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:03,439 Speaker 7: totally resist. 202 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 4: But if that's what Trump tries to do, he'll fail. 203 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 4: He'll fail. He doesn't want to be a loser. That 204 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 4: would be a loss. 205 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 2: Well, so let's talk about Vladimir Zelenski, the President of 206 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 2: Ukraine in this, because he obviously has made great effort 207 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: to stay on side with the Trump administration, knowing how 208 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: poorly things had gone in the past. If we all 209 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: think back to that meeting in the Oval Office last year, 210 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 2: at the same time, President Trump does seem to be, 211 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: at least for this time, being less patient with Vladimir 212 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 2: Zelensky than he is with Vladimir Putin. So how does Zelensky, 213 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 2: as a head of state have to navigate that kind 214 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 2: of relationship how difficult is this moment for him, knowing 215 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 2: he doesn't want to have to give up, he doesn't 216 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 2: want to have to surrender. 217 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 4: Whatever, President Keedi, You're exactly right, it's very difficult. He 218 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 4: will not surrender. 219 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 7: Zelensky will not surrender even if he's under great pressure 220 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 7: from President Trump. And President Trump needs to understand that 221 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 7: that that will not be a success. That will not 222 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 7: be successful. And President Zelenski is doing two things. He's 223 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 7: trying to keep the Americans supportive. He's done everything, done 224 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 7: pretty well, actually since that horrible meeting last year, he's 225 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 7: done that pretty well. But at the same time, he's 226 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 7: building up the capabilities himself, defense industrial capabilities in Ukraine 227 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 7: as well as the Europeans providing not only the funds 228 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 7: but also the weapons. So he's doing both things. He's 229 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 7: trying to keep the Americans on board, but at the 230 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 7: same time become more independent. 231 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 5: New York Times column today, Trump bets on diplomacy without diplomats, 232 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 5: and David Sanger shares the byline to write that some 233 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 5: Russians have now taken to calling the duo whitkof and 234 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 5: zaiat cough because zaiet is Russian for son in law, 235 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 5: The Iranians also have a nickname for Kushner, using the 236 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 5: Persian word for son in law, Damad Trump defining his 237 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 5: influence by virtue of his marriage to the president's daughter. 238 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,599 Speaker 7: What do you think of that as a career diplomat? 239 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 7: You do me as we talked earlier, So we need 240 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 7: to talk diplomats do. 241 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 4: Does that bring leverage though that someone else might not have. 242 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 7: What brings leverage is connection to the one man who's 243 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 7: making the decision. 244 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 4: So this is a good thing. 245 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 7: Then this gives them credibility. This gives them credibility, more 246 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 7: credibility than lower level diplomats, which certainly have. So Yes, 247 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 7: if if Witkoff and can bring a deal, because they've 248 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 7: got Trump sitting right behind them, then that's a fine thing. 249 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 7: That's whatever gets that piece, they'll just and lasting piece. 250 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 4: That will be fine. 251 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 7: Well. 252 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 2: But this is not their exclusive area of focus. As 253 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 2: we noted in Geneva yesterday, they went to the Ukraine 254 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 2: Russia talks after the Iran nuclear talks. Is there not 255 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 2: some kind of conflict in being able to address these 256 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: two things adequately? 257 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 7: Addressing it addequately is the right question? These are both 258 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 7: complicated issues, very complicated they've gone back years. Both of 259 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 7: them have gone back years, and there's a lot of 260 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 7: history there. There's a lot of nuance there. 261 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 4: It's a complicated both are complicated issues. 262 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 7: You got to hope that they're getting some support from 263 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 7: some other parts of the government, because they don't have 264 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 7: it themselves. 265 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 4: They need to have that kind of support. 266 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 5: We were struck by the post on Twitter from Zelenski 267 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 5: following the first meeting and ahead of the second, which 268 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 5: by the way, was over in ninety minutes. We understand 269 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 5: he wrote, yesterday's meetings were indeed difficult, and we can 270 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 5: state that Russia is trying to drag out negotiations that 271 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 5: could already have reached the final stage. I thank the 272 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 5: American side, he says, for its attention to detail and 273 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 5: patients and conversations with the current representatives of Russia's Now 274 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 5: you've got Ukraine apologizing for Russia at the table on 275 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 5: top of it. I'm sure he's got a little bit 276 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 5: of a wink as he's writing that, ambassador, But what 277 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 5: does that tell you about his post before a third meeting? 278 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 7: So the Ukrainians have sent very senior people. The head 279 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:51,319 Speaker 7: of the delegation is the chief of staff. The other 280 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 7: head of the delegation is the National Security Defense Council, 281 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 7: and then there's a deputy US, a defense person. They've 282 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 7: got a senior folks there. They got a group of 283 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 7: senior people. The Russians don't. The Russian delegation was headed 284 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 7: by I think a deputy Culture minister earlier. So that 285 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 7: suggests to you that again, even on the Russian side, 286 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 7: there's not a depth of understanding. 287 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: We have just a minute left, Ambassador, But coming off 288 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: of the Munich Security Conference this weekend, were you encouraged 289 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 2: by what we heard from the Secretary of State Marco 290 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: Rubio in contrast to JD Vance last year what it 291 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 2: means for not just Ukraine but other European allies. 292 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 7: Compared to the JD Vance speech, Yes, but the message 293 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 7: was basically the same, Kayleie. The message was the same 294 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 7: pretty much America first. But the other big message coming 295 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 7: out of that was where he went next. Where Rubio 296 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 7: went next, I mean he went to Slovakia and he 297 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 7: went to Hungary. 298 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 4: That tells you that there's not a changing message. 299 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 2: All right, we appreciate you joining us and your expertise. 300 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 2: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor here with us 301 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: in our Washington, d C studio on Balance of Power, 302 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: and we have much more still ahead. We'll speak with 303 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 2: our political panel, Sarah Chamberlain and Kristen Hahn. 304 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 305 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 306 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketas 307 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 308 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 309 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 310 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 311 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where 312 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 2: we are now on day five of the partial government shutdown, 313 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 2: specifically of the Department of Homeland Security, which has not 314 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 2: been funded since midnight Friday, made a dispute between Republicans 315 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 2: and Democrats over reforms to ICE. We understand that there 316 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 2: have been proposals and counterproposals traded, but no real signs 317 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 2: of progress yet that would bring an end to this shutdown. 318 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 2: In Particularler and Joe, it seems that the issues that 319 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 2: the two sides are focused on that seem intractable on 320 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: both sides are notes closer to getting solved the issue 321 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 2: of removing masks for ICE agents and having requiring that 322 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: they have judicial warrants. Republicans will tell you that is 323 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: a non starter, and Democrats say funding this department is 324 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: a non started without it. 325 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, the news today is there's no news on this front, 326 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 5: which is really why we're starting to ask whether we 327 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 5: could have a record partial shutdown because no one's budging 328 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 5: on this. Hakem Jeffries saying a bill is not going 329 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 5: to move without meaningful, bold, transformational changes to ICE's conduct, 330 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 5: and what they're seeing so far apparently doesn't fulfill that idea. 331 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 4: We're in a. 332 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 5: Situation, Kaylee, where it seems like both sides think that 333 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 5: they've moved and they're waiting for the other to go further. 334 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 5: Both think they're winning, and you know how dangerous that 335 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 5: can be. 336 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and remember both where Democrats felt that they 337 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 2: were winning the last shutdown and then it was ultimately 338 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 2: Democrats who decided to end it without actually getting the 339 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 2: policy on healthcare that they wanted to. Are they going 340 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:05,479 Speaker 2: to repeat that this time around? 341 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 5: This is why people love Washington, and we assemble our 342 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 5: political panel for their take on this. They've been through 343 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 5: a couple of these, including Republican strategists Sarah Chamberlain, who 344 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 5: is with us here in our DC Bureau, Republican Main 345 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 5: Street Partnership president and CEO, sharing some time today with 346 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 5: Kristin hann our Democratic strategist and partner at Rock Solutions. Kristin, 347 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 5: you heard the words of Hakim Jeffreys. He says ICE 348 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 5: is out of control and they need to be rained in, 349 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 5: and the American. 350 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 4: People know it. 351 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 5: This has not changed the boundaries of this debate, however, 352 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 5: Kaylee just pointed it out. Dmasking and warrants are non 353 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 5: starters for Republicans and they are mandatory for Democrats. 354 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 4: So how do we get to the next stage to this? 355 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 8: I mean, I think, well, first of all, everybody's going 356 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 8: to have to come back into town. You said this 357 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 8: is why everybody loves Washington. I'm not exactly sure that 358 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 8: that's true, but you know, I think that, you know, 359 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 8: like the Democrats have been talking about those two issues 360 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 8: all along. They're seeing the public rise up, not just 361 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 8: in states but all over the country. Not just in 362 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 8: states where some of these tragedies have occurred at the 363 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 8: hands of ICE, agents, so you know they're being reactive 364 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 8: and responsible to the American people and at least for now, 365 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,199 Speaker 8: believe that they're on the right side of this. And 366 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 8: not only are they on the right side of it, 367 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 8: like you said, when both sides believe they are winning 368 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 8: the communications agenda, the political argument, they have very little incentive. 369 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 4: To come to the table. 370 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 8: Eventually, when you're talking about ts agents and other things 371 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 8: that impact people's lives and not just the employees, but 372 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 8: also air travel and other things like that. I think 373 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 8: that's when people will eventually come to the table. But 374 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 8: as we discussed in the last segment, it could be 375 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 8: a very long drawn out shutdown. 376 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 2: Well, the longer it goes on, Sarah, the closer we 377 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 2: get to the midterms, we consider incentives here electorally speaking, 378 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 2: If you are a moderate Republican in a swing district 379 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 2: one of the ones that the dter PC is targeting, 380 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 2: do you want to have voted for reforms to ICE 381 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 2: given the public sentiment that Kristen was talking about, or 382 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 2: does that risk backfiring with the base. I just wonder 383 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 2: what the calculus here and who they need to try 384 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: to win over. 385 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 9: Well, they do want to do reforms to ICE. They've 386 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 9: done reforms to ICE. I mean they've offered a lot. No, 387 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 9: they haven't offered the mass because some of the ICE 388 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 9: agents are in danger themselves. People figure out who they are, 389 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 9: they go to their families homes, so they want to 390 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 9: prevent that. But we've come a long way. We've pulled 391 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 9: them out of Minnesota. We've agreed to cameras. 392 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 10: I mean, we've agreed to a lot. It's just we 393 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 10: don't know what the Democrats want. 394 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 9: The Democrats are making this political where the Republicans are 395 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 9: trying to make this like listen. They're being funded anyway, 396 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 9: and I think that's a key part that's being messed 397 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 9: in the Big Beautiful Bill. 398 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 10: The ICE agents are being funded. 399 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 9: It is FEMA, it is Coast Guard, and it is 400 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,199 Speaker 9: TSA that's really paying the price you. 401 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: Brought up the Big Beautiful Bill. I have to wonder 402 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 2: if somehow this doesn't end up being resolved by another 403 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: reconciliation package that Republicans can just push through on partisan lines, 404 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 2: if Democrats are never going to agree to a bipartisan 405 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 2: funding compromise, could you see that happening. 406 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 9: Potentially, But we don't want him have to do that either. 407 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 9: We really want the Democrats to come to the table 408 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 9: with a legitimate plan to get this done. We saw 409 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 9: what happened with ACA. The Democrats ended up opening the 410 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 9: government with us. Did the ACA get fixed now? And 411 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 9: nobody's even talking about it anymore. So we just think 412 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 9: this is another political employed by the Democrats. 413 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 5: It's just an opportunity for the President to lay the 414 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 5: stakes next week in the State of the Union. 415 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 4: Or is this a. 416 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 5: Liability to actually step into the speaker's roster and have 417 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 5: a piece of the government closed. 418 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 9: I think he talks about it in the say of 419 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 9: the Union. I think he really he talks about it. 420 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 9: As far as FEMA and TSA and in the Coast Guard, 421 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 9: I mean, they're really paying the price, and you know what, 422 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 9: we're paying the price here in Washington with what is 423 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 9: happening in the Potomac. Yeah, and it really is a 424 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 9: tragedy that's going in. We need FEMA to help fix 425 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 9: this and they're not getting paid well. 426 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 2: And so this gets back to what you were talking about, Kristen, FEMA, TSA, 427 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 2: the Coastguard, all of these things for how long, realistically 428 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: do you think Democrats are going to be able to 429 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 2: withstand knowing that these people serving in these roles are 430 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 2: going without paychecks? Can it be longer than forty three days? 431 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 2: Would you see that same group of more moderate Democrats saying, 432 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 2: all right, I'm folding here. We got to open this 433 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 2: back up. 434 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 4: I'm not sure about that. 435 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 8: I mean, I think nobody wants to say to see 436 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 8: the government or any part of the government shut down, 437 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 8: because people suffer when that happens. But we're talking about 438 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,400 Speaker 8: who's paying the price for federal policies. People all over 439 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 8: this country and hardworking illegal immigrants to this country, and 440 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 8: American citizens are paying the price for how ICE has 441 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 8: operated in many of these states across the country. And 442 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 8: so you know, you're looking at how do we change 443 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 8: a lot of the policies, And clearly the Republicans have 444 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 8: a different idea of what's reasonable than the Democrats do. 445 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 8: But the Democrats have been consistent in the beginning. Doesn't 446 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 8: make it any less difficult. And the Republicans do have 447 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 8: control of both Chambers of Congress and the White House, 448 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 8: so it eventually behoove everybody to come to the table 449 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,719 Speaker 8: and really sit down and talk about what's happening. To 450 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 8: say that one side is purely playing politics on the 451 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 8: other side doesn't care about it at all. It's disingenuous. 452 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 5: Well, I'm curious about the conversation that was had last 453 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 5: evening at the Capitol Hill Club, which a lot of 454 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 5: folks are talking about. Susie Wilds had members of the 455 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 5: cabinet there, Sarah, you're upholstered President Trump's preferred polster. Tony 456 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 5: Fabrizio had some important lessons to be taught when it 457 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 5: comes to messaging, specifically around affordability. But I'm wondering as 458 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 5: the President prepares to deliver this speech in Georgia on 459 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 5: affordability this week and a State of the Union next, 460 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 5: Immigration is still a huge issue for Republicans here helped 461 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 5: to get this president elected. In a lot of members, 462 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 5: this is a winning issue. But Democrats point to new 463 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 5: polling since these two fatal shootings in Minneapolis, more than 464 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,199 Speaker 5: half of you as adults, fifty five percent disapprove of 465 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 5: the president's handling specifically of immigration. This is a Yahoo 466 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 5: you gov poll that made a lot of waves last week. 467 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 4: Forty one percent approve. 468 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 5: How worried are members about losing the issue of immigration 469 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 5: to Democrats? 470 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 9: They are concerned about it, and then what they're doing 471 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 9: is going back and talking about. 472 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 10: The border has been shot. 473 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 9: I mean, obviously under President Biden it was wide open. 474 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 9: That has been a great success of the Trump administration. 475 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 9: We need to focus on that the other things we're 476 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 9: kind of putting on the side. Obviously, there was a 477 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 9: great tragedy that two people died in Minnesota. We don't 478 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,239 Speaker 9: forget that. But what we're trying to do is we 479 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 9: shut the border. Now we're pivoting to talking about economic 480 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 9: issues because that's where the American people really are. Yes, 481 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 9: they're concerned about immigration, but they're really much more concerned 482 00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 9: about paying their bills. 483 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 2: Well, so, how do Democrats try to make sure they 484 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 2: dominate the affordability narrative? Kristen, if President Trump is maybe 485 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 2: going to do the tour we were promised on affordability. 486 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 2: It seems it's going to be resuming in Georgia tomorrow. 487 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 2: Unclear if that is going to continue beyond, but he's 488 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 2: going to try or least Susie Wiles would like him 489 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 2: to try to dominate the affordability conversation. 490 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, it's always difficult when the president is 491 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 8: in the opposite party from you, because he or she 492 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 8: has the bully pulpit, and so, you know, I think 493 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 8: the Democrats have done a really good job of getting 494 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 8: through on the issue of affordability. I'm not saying the 495 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 8: Democrats are always good at staying conciseent on message, but 496 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 8: on this issue they have. Even during the last COIMU shutdown, 497 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 8: when they were talking about, you know, the healthcare subsidies, 498 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 8: which are the crux of the debate, they were talking 499 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 8: about in the context of affordability for all Americans across 500 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,239 Speaker 8: this country with regard to their own health care. So 501 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 8: I think that we continue to recruit really good candidates, 502 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,439 Speaker 8: which we have across this country who can need to 503 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 8: talk about those kitchen table issues that we're all going 504 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 8: to talk about and really relate to people at a 505 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 8: local level. 506 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 5: I suspect that members and maybe yourself will be watching 507 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 5: the President's speech tomorrow night in Rome, Georgia pretty closely. 508 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 5: This is going to be a test drive. I'm guessing 509 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,199 Speaker 5: for some ideas in the state of the Union. How 510 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 5: important will it be for him to work out that 511 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 5: part of the speech that appears to be the most 512 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,360 Speaker 5: important thing to the Republican mainstream. 513 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 9: It is extremely important that he delivered a good speech, 514 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 9: that he stay on topic because the men and women, 515 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 9: especially in the Republican Main Street Partnership, are going to 516 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 9: need that come November. So we're hoping, you know, Susie 517 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 9: Wills does a great job as the chief of staff. 518 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,479 Speaker 9: She'll get him out there and keep him focused and 519 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 9: he'll start delivering. 520 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 10: You know, we have done a lot in the affordability 521 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 10: I mean. 522 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 9: The housing bill that passed a couple of weeks ago 523 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 9: that Mike Flood did. I mean, the lower prescription drug prices, like, 524 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 9: we're working on it, but it does take time, and 525 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 9: it's really only been a year. 526 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 4: She knows. 527 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 2: The housing bill Kristen, which passed with a mass to 528 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 2: bipartisan majority. Is that the last real legislative work we're 529 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 2: going to see in this Congress because now it's getting 530 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: into electoral politics and all the actual legislating is going 531 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 2: to be put to the wayside. 532 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 7: Yeah. 533 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:12,880 Speaker 8: I mean, if there's anything that's going to be done, 534 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 8: it's going to have to be like something that's hugely bipartisan. 535 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 8: But I think, yeah, the closer and closer we even 536 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 8: get to July and people start leaving town to really 537 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 8: focus on their re elections, I wouldn't I wouldn't guess 538 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 8: that there would be a lot more that would get 539 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 8: done except for what absolutely has to be done in 540 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 8: the election year. And then, you know, depending on what 541 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 8: happens post election, if the Democrats do take over, you know, 542 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 8: there will likely be an onslaught of legislation coming forward 543 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 8: by the Republicans before they officially lose the Chamber. So 544 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 8: that's something to look forward to for as well. 545 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 2: All Right, Kristen Han and Sarah Chamberlain, thank you both. 546 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 547 00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 548 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 549 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 550 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 1: Apple Coarckley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 551 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 552 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 553 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 5: It was quite the story yesterday when it dropped in 554 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 5: axios here in Washington. Everybody woke up to the same thing, 555 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 5: started texting each other, and it sent a shutter down 556 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 5: the spine of k Street. The warning that came from 557 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 5: the partners at Vienovo, this bipartisan group in Washington that 558 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 5: everyone's talking about today, the. 559 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 4: Subpoenas are coming. 560 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 5: We talk about midterms on a daily basis around here, 561 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 5: and the seasonality that is at the Democrats back the 562 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,239 Speaker 5: possibility of winning both the House and the Senate now 563 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 5: with a favorable map, a favorable narrative. When it comes 564 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,120 Speaker 5: to affordability, what would happen if Democrats took over? There's 565 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 5: your question. Would they try to impeach Donald Trump again? 566 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 5: Would they go after the files? Would there be another 567 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 5: Jack Smith that emerged? And of course it's just a 568 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 5: little bit more complicated than that. I've got the note 569 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 5: here to clients that went out that I mentioned the 570 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 5: subpoenas are coming. How companies, that's the keyword here, should 571 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 5: prepare for next year's congressional oversight. Blitz a note almost 572 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 5: made for the audience at Bloomberg. Tucker ESQ and Matthew Miller. 573 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 5: The latter is with me in studio right now, the 574 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 5: partners at Vienovo. Of course, you might remember Matthew Miller, 575 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 5: who you saw and heard from on a daily basis 576 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,159 Speaker 5: here on this program, when we would play cuts of 577 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 5: him as the State Department spokesman, the man who stood 578 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 5: behind the podium and the Biden administration. It's great to 579 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 5: have you with us. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 580 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 5: Thankks to see in person. Great to be here. So 581 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 5: it's going to be so much worse than they expect. 582 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 5: The line that you gave to Axios. It's interesting is 583 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 5: you write here. Two key changes in the Democratic mindset 584 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 5: on Capitol Hill are going to result in a different 585 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 5: look when it comes to oversight hearings if they win 586 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 5: in the fall. 587 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 4: How different. 588 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that's right. So look, one thing that 589 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 11: will remain the same. Companies are used to changes in 590 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 11: oversight priorities when Congress changes. Republicans have had one corporate 591 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 11: oversight priority. For example, they have tried to investigate companies 592 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 11: for DEI programs. Democrats have much different priorities, and so 593 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 11: that's always been true. 594 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 4: So every time Democrats take back the House. 595 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 11: You see them open investigations to drug pricing or consumer 596 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 11: fraud or other alleged practices that are traditional core Democratic priorities. 597 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 11: What's different this time is that Number one, a lot 598 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 11: of Democrats on the Hill looked at the way the 599 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 11: president has managed his relationship with corporate America over the 600 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 11: past year and sees alleged corporate abuses or corporations aiding 601 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 11: and abetting the Trump administration's biggest abuses of power. And 602 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 11: so there is an increased demand among Democrats on the 603 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 11: Hill to try to go after some companies that have 604 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 11: either cut what they see as corrupt with the White 605 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 11: House or have yielded to pressure from the White House. 606 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 11: Look at the demands you've seen from the Hill already 607 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 11: to investigate paramounts transactions. Look at what's happened just in 608 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 11: the past forty eight hours at CBS. Those are all 609 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 11: types of things that Democrats want to look into. The 610 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 11: second key change is Democrats are very aware of the 611 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 11: experience they had in twenty nineteen. In twenty twenty, the 612 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 11: last time there was a Democratic House and a Trump 613 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 11: white House, and they came into office with all these 614 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 11: plans to investigate the White House and investigate various cabinet agencies. 615 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 11: And you saw them launch major investigations in the first 616 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 11: months that they held gabbles, and all of those investigations 617 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 11: met with a stone wall where in usual practice white 618 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 11: houses and cabinet agencies would negotiate with Congress over what 619 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 11: documents they would give, what they would withhold under executive privilege. 620 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 11: This White House said no, and gave nothing and forced 621 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 11: Democrats into court. And what the White House I think 622 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 11: figured out was you could put off those demands for 623 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 11: years and in many cases executive branch documents weren't ton 624 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 11: turned over until Trump was already gone. And so Democrats 625 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 11: know that this time, if they want to actually get documents, 626 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 11: it doesn't make sense to send a subpoena to the 627 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 11: White House where you might get documents in three years 628 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 11: when Trump is no longer president, when you can send 629 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 11: it to a company and get documents and just go. 630 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 5: To the other side of the transact exactly right. And 631 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 5: an executive who is not even going to consider being 632 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 5: held in criminal contempt of Congress, where the White House says, 633 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 5: I dare you, Yeah, I dare you can we can 634 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 5: run it out, and an executive either one can't afford 635 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 5: the potential criminal risk, but also can't afford the reputational 636 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 5: risks dragged through them. Give me the deadlines that they need. 637 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 5: So this is going to be ballroom heaven right. Every 638 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 5: company that donated to the ballroom will be brought to 639 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 5: Capitol Hill to answer questions. 640 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 11: I think there could be some over the ballroom. But 641 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 11: although the ballroom is a much more traditional. You see 642 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 11: company companies contribute to various projects over the time. 643 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 4: They're going to want to know what they got for it. Yeah. 644 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 11: I think when you look at some of the things 645 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 11: that are more concerning to Democrats, look at the crypto 646 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 11: deals that you've seen at World Liberty Financials. 647 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 5: There's a press contact going on today while you and 648 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 5: I are talking at Palm Beach. Yeah, I've got the 649 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 5: head of Goldman Sachs down there. Does David Solomon get 650 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 5: an invite? 651 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 4: I don't know. 652 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 11: I mean members of congres are gonna have to make 653 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 11: those decisions. But you've seen alleged transactions that are enriching 654 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 11: members of the Trump family, enriching members of the Witcoff family. 655 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 11: When you look at law firms who back last year, 656 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 11: in the spring of last year, agreed to the president's demands, 657 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 11: Democrats have made clear they want to know what the 658 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 11: law firms have given up in exchange for that, what 659 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 11: kind of services they're providing to the executive branch of 660 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 11: any They have all these different initiatives, They've said they 661 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 11: want to probe and they want to do it very aggressively. 662 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 4: Media companies. 663 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 5: You just mentioned what's gone on at CBS in the 664 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 5: last forty eight hours could be a field day. 665 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 4: CBS could be a field day. 666 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 11: You've seen Democrats raise questions about ABC settling a lawsuit 667 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 11: that put money into the President's pocket, when every libel 668 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 11: lawyer told you that they could. 669 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 4: Win that lawsuit easily. 670 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 11: This is something that happened back in the very early 671 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 11: days of the administration. And of course the way that 672 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 11: Paramounts settled the lawsuit over sixty minutes one that they again, 673 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 11: according to libel and defamation and lawyers, would have won 674 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 11: hands down, but said they chose to settle at a 675 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 11: time when they had transaction interests that were before the 676 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 11: executive branch. All those things Democrats want to look into. 677 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 5: Fascinating with that, Z how far do these go beyond 678 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 5: the hearing room? And to what extent you mentioned reputational damage? 679 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 5: To what extent can it go further than that if 680 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 5: you've still got a Republican White House at the other 681 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 5: round of Pennsylvania Avenue. 682 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 4: Well, the thing two things about that. 683 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 11: First, the reputational damage is real, and it's not just 684 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 11: the hearing. Although having a CEO come down and have 685 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 11: to testify is the biggest escalation thing that's most damaging 686 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 11: to a company. But the process of turning over documents, 687 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 11: many of which can be embarrassing if not criminal or 688 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 11: if not showing actual wrongdoing, can be hugely embarrassing. And 689 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 11: unlike when you turn over documents to the executive branch 690 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 11: and they generally keep those private, the Congress has no 691 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 11: incentive to do that, and usually they don't, so there's 692 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 11: a massive reputational cost, and then when it comes to 693 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 11: actual cost beyond that, I think one of the things 694 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,959 Speaker 11: that Democrats believe is that corporate America has behaved as 695 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 11: if there's never going to be a change in power, 696 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 11: either on the Hill or potentially in the executive branch. 697 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 11: And of course that's not true. And the statute of 698 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 11: limitations when it comes to criminal behavior. And this is 699 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 11: not to say that most, if any, of these corporate 700 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,839 Speaker 11: activities are criminal behavior, but when if the Democrats were 701 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 11: able to expose actual criminal behavior, statute of limitations for 702 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,120 Speaker 11: those types of crimes runs beyond the extent of Trump's 703 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 11: four year term. 704 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 5: Spending time with Matt Miller from Vienovo on Balance of Power, 705 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,320 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Government talked to Dan Goldman earlier this month about 706 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 5: potential oversight Targets. Producer James just put this in front 707 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 5: of me, a new Air Force one plane from Cutter 708 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 5: Trump family involvement with Crypto. 709 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 4: You mentioned energy companies knowledge. 710 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,839 Speaker 5: Of the early January of Venezuela military operation, that in 711 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 5: itself could be quite a saga. 712 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 4: Yeah, it absolutely could. 713 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 11: I'm a little skeptical that the Well companies actually knew 714 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 11: anything about that at they seemed to be. They seem 715 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 11: to be completely surprised. I don't think I'm going on 716 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 11: a limb here to say that. Lots of times the 717 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 11: things that the President said, it was the President who 718 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:07,719 Speaker 11: said that he'd talked to the old companies. Sometimes he's 719 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,319 Speaker 11: a little over his skis and says things that aren't 720 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 11: exactly accurate. I'd be surprised if if they had any 721 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 11: real detail. Although wouldn't surprise me if the administration consulted 722 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,919 Speaker 11: with him and said, what are the conditions under which 723 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,760 Speaker 11: you would be willing to come back in and invest 724 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 11: in Venezuela. 725 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 4: So, of course those. 726 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 11: Are things that the Congress might look at. 727 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 5: I want to go back to your time behind the 728 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 5: podium for a moment at the State Department, because this 729 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 5: is a very different political world that we're living in, 730 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 5: and before you joined us, we were talking about talks 731 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 5: to potentially end the war in Ukraine that you spent 732 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 5: a heck of a lot of time working on in 733 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 5: the Biden administration, and the potential for strikes against Iran. 734 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 5: This David sangercolumn has my attention this morning. That's talking 735 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,040 Speaker 5: about the duo at the tip of the spear here 736 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 5: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Neither of them are diplomats? 737 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:58,000 Speaker 5: Are they the two men who can prevent a war 738 00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,840 Speaker 5: in Iran and end one in Ukraine? 739 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 11: So I have never been concerned about the fact that 740 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,359 Speaker 11: Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner lead negotiations. I think there's 741 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 11: no reason that you can't have someone from outside government 742 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 11: come in and lead a negotiating team and get results. 743 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 11: What has always concerned me, however, is the fact that 744 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 11: they have conducted most of these negotiations without any support 745 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 11: from experienced diplomats. And the problem when you come into 746 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 11: that situation is you don't know what you don't know. 747 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,720 Speaker 11: So when Steve Whitcoff goes to Russia and meets with Putin, 748 00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 11: sometimes one on one in the first case, without even 749 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 11: having an American translator in the room, let alone a 750 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 11: seasoned American diplomat, and Putin unleashes this spiel that he 751 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 11: has about decades of grievances from the West, decades of 752 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 11: grievances from Ukraine. Whitcoff doesn't know the back and forth, 753 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 11: and at times you heard him come out and then 754 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,320 Speaker 11: repeat some of Putin's You heard him do this in 755 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,680 Speaker 11: a Tucker cross An interview. Afterwards, we came out and 756 00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 11: repeated some of Putin's propaganda. He clearly didn't know that 757 00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,719 Speaker 11: some of it wasn't true. That is actually actually dangerous 758 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,360 Speaker 11: because you're not in a position to negotiate from a 759 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,480 Speaker 11: level playing field. And that doesn't make sense for the 760 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 11: United States that you wouldn't go in with all the 761 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 11: benefit of decades of experience in the United States government, 762 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,920 Speaker 11: of dealing with Putin, of dealing with Russian diplomats, of 763 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 11: dealing with Iranian diplomats and Iranian interests, that you wouldn't 764 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 11: go in with some of that experience in your back 765 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,080 Speaker 11: pocket to advise you on what's possible and what's not. 766 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 5: This column, headlines Trump bets on diplomacy without diplomats, reads 767 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,480 Speaker 5: that Some Russians have taken to calling the duo whitkof 768 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 5: and Zayat cough, because zaiet is Russian for son in law. 769 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 4: The Iranians also have. 770 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,040 Speaker 5: A nickname for mister Kushner, using the Persian word for 771 00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 5: son and law. Damad Trump again defining Kushner's influence by 772 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 5: virtue of his marriage to the President's daughter, Ivanka. 773 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,640 Speaker 4: That is incredible in our remaining moment. 774 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 5: How important is it that we are not getting official 775 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,240 Speaker 5: readouts on many of these meetings. 776 00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 11: It's extremely important, and it's not just important that we 777 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,440 Speaker 11: the public aren't getting readout from what I hear from 778 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 11: talking to people inside the government. Other senior national security 779 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,239 Speaker 11: officials aren't getting readouts of what's happening in these meetings. 780 00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 11: They're held in a very tight circle, which again can 781 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 11: be okay if you're making progress and you need to 782 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,919 Speaker 11: do it, but there is not a give and take 783 00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,360 Speaker 11: between the people doing the negotiating and the people inside 784 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 11: the government who could advise them on what's true and 785 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:20,759 Speaker 11: what's not. 786 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 4: I'm really glad you can come and spend some time 787 00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:23,760 Speaker 4: with us today. Don't be a stranger. 788 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:28,240 Speaker 5: Matt Miller Vianova and the warning to k Street, thanks 789 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,359 Speaker 5: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 790 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 5: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or 791 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 5: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 792 00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 5: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at 793 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:41,880 Speaker 5: Bloomberg dot com.