WEBVTT - Executive Disorder: White House Weekly #15 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:02.880 Cool Media. 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:10.600 This is it could happen here Executive Disorder, our weekly 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:13.640 newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world, 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:15.840 and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis today, 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:19.840 joined by Mia Wong, James Stout, and Robert Evans. This episode, 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:23.400 we're covering the week of April thirtieth to May seventh. 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:27.440 Yes, when you think of ed, you think about rigid 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:33.040 cylindrical things now flying at high speed towards miss That's 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:35.360 a bad way to introduce the facts. There's now a 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.000 war going on between India and Pakistan. I don't know 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:40.800 what else are we supposed to do? How are we 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.720 supposed to go into this? Pakistan and India are are shooting. 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.279 Yeah's okay, okay, I'm going to attempt to do a 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:51.519 very very very very brief Please God like do not 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.320 let this be the extent of your knowledge about this conflict. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:01:00.960 But yeah, okay, here is one paragraph about this. So 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:07.319 when India gains and Pakistan eventually gained independence from the 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:11.360 UK and the British Empire, there was the partition. This 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:15.040 is a process in which millions died and India and 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.600 Pakistan were split into two states. 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.319 Millions die as a result of the disruption to infrastructure 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:23.080 and as a result of mascular. 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.600 Yeah, and again people fleeing, like back and forth between 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:31.039 the two places. There's been a studio territory for fucking ever. 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:33.800 One of the most contentious parts of this has always 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:37.720 been Kashmir mahrg walk. There's a whole complicated thing here, 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:41.680 but so Kashmir was sort of split in two. There's 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:45.520 an almost entirely Muslim like territory that ends up under 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:49.000 the control of India, and India has waged a brutal 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.520 military occupation of Kashmir since they got it. Basically, it 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:56.000 ramps up and down in terms of like how bad 0:01:56.120 --> 0:02:00.080 it is, but it's never good. Yeah, in this this 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.640 has been a constant source of attension between India and Pakistan, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.200 where you know, Pakistan has played its card of like 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:11.160 we are like the defenders of Muslims in India. And 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:13.840 there's been a series of wars also, but this this 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:15.200 is one of the few times you can say there 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.880 are jedicides on both sides. And it's true because like 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.440 one of the wars that they fought was because of 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:24.440 the jedicide that Pakistan did in what became Bangladesh. So like, 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.200 there are no heroes in this story, there is only 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.160 I mean, I guess, like you know, there are people 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.240 resisting repression from both states. 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.560 They are good people, but neither of the states have 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:34.360 clean ams. 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:37.679 Yeah, but the states sucks shit, right, Like you know, 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:41.600 Let let's be clear about that. Kashmir is one of 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.040 the most militarized places in the world. It got much 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.040 much worse after twenty nineteen when India withdrew the autonomous 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.120 status that Kashmiir had had. This sparked a bunch of protests. 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:54.400 They're horribly repressed. There's been staggering numbers of people have 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.120 died over the past like thirty years. There look a 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.480 lot of like Hesbra's acxis, the outside world has been 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:03.760 cut off. It's difficult to get people like in to it. 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.880 And obviously, you know, the thing about occupations is that 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:09.079 there's been a very very long running series of sort 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:13.919 of insurgencies and militant groups in Kashmir of various kinds. 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:18.600 Pakistan has funded some of these groups as a way 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.960 to sort of like poke a stick at India, and 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:27.480 in late April a group killed twenty odd twenty six 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.919 I think, yeah, twenty twenty six, I think yeah, I 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:34.560 think it's the final number, like Hindu tourists in Kashmir. 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:38.920 It's worth noting that there's no actual evidence that Pakistan 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:43.760 is behind this, but no, but that's India's claim. Yeah, 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:45.640 that's India's claim. And this is causings to get really 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:47.720 really bad in Kashmir itself, which is the part of 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:49.400 this I think has gotten lost in a lot of 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.600 the discussions here, which is like like if you if 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:55.000 you read statements from from like I mean like, A, 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.520 there's just been like an incredible intensification of oppression, and 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:01.440 b if you read statements from Indian officials there, they're 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.080 just straight up talking about quote like Indian style final 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:07.720 solutions for Kashmir. It's completely unhinged. The Indian state has 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.720 gone into this, I mean, like, you know, it's it's Modi, right. 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:13.680 Modi is running probably the world's most effective fascist government 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:16.440 and his thing is always like a huge part of 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:19.720 it has always been specifically about like wanting to repress Muslims, 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:24.280 and this, you know, has has kicked the homophobia into 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:28.200 an absolute fever pitch. And the product of this is 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.440 that they have started doing strikes inside of Pakistan. I'm 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:31.960 going to pass it over to Robert and talk about 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.320 like what does have looked like and what this conflict 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:34.640 has been. 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.919 Yeah. So, and it's important to know that during this 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:40.279 terrorist attack, one of the big things that is alleged 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.360 is that husbands were executed in front of their wives. Yeah, 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.680 that is that is going to be relevant for the 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.320 name of the operation that India is in the process 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.400 of carrying out right now. Prior to in the immediate 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:56.440 wake of that attack, everyone knew some shit was going 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:59.560 to go down on the border. India was going to 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.160 do some thing, in part because India said they were 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:03.479 going to do something. Right. 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:04.400 JD. 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:07.760 Vance, the Peacemaker, as we call him, I don't believe 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.000 anyone else has ever been called that in the history 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:12.840 of government or popular media. So, yeah, that seems like 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.359 a good nickname for him. Went to India like a 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:17.960 day or two before this all happened to calm things down. 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:20.800 This is often making a visit to the pope or 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.600 to tell Mody do whatever. Like, we don't know actually 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.400 what he said. Some people are like Vance must have 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:27.080 given him the go ahead. I think it's just as 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:29.000 likely Vance was like Hey, we don't really want a 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.440 war right now? Can he calm shit down? And Mody 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.400 didn't listen or that Vance just didn't even have anything 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:36.599 meaningful to say. We actually don't know at the moment. 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:40.520 But last night India started carrying out what they are 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:45.680 calling Operation Sindoor Si Indo r is how it is 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:50.719 generally anglicized. The name of the operation comes from. Again, 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.159 I mentioned a little earlier that during that terrorist attack 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:56.320 in Kashmir, Hindumen were killed in front of their wives. 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:59.719 Sindoor is a word that refers to this kind of 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:02.799 color or die that I believe it's like a bridal 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.160 thing that like women put in I think it's in 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.160 their hair. But it's a reference to something that is 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.000 part of like a traditional Hindu wedding and something that 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:13.760 the bride does. And so it was specifically named this 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.479 in order to make it very clear. This is vengeance 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:19.040 for that attack, right, Like, that's why it was named 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.920 what it was. Okay, does that all make sense? Yeah, sorry, 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.520 I've got here. Sindor is the Hindi word for vermilion, 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.400 which is the red pignant Hindu women apply to their forehead. Right, 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.400 So like that, and so it's it's a reference also 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:31.920 to the fact that these terrorists are said to have 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:34.480 like shot their victims in the forehead, right, So there's 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:39.120 there's a lot going on there basically, Yeah, but that's 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:42.760 what's relevant. So when it comes to this what's happening, 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.880 first off, perfectly reasonable to call what's happening war. India 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.279 has launched cross border strikes. They appear to have launched 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:52.719 both cruise missiles and air strikes using modern jets. 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:53.160 Right. 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.920 Pakistan has responded with modern military air defenses. What we 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.920 can safely say right now is that this is the 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:06.400 first full twenty first century here on peer military action. 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:08.479 And I know, as came up in the meeting, people 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:12.320 are going to say, well, Ukraine, not entirely Ukraine and Russia. 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.200 There is a degree to which that is true, because 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.080 Ukraine is armed by states that are peer or more 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.160 than peer to Russia in terms of military technology. But 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:23.920 Ukraine does not have an industrial base that is in 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:27.000 any way comparable to Russia's. They're not capable of manufacturing 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.720 the weaponry that they need to compete with Russia on 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.680 the battlefield on their own. That's why international aid has 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:37.360 been so critical Pakistan and India are both effectively peers 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.520 in that they both do purchase weaponry a lot from 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.560 other countries, but they also have domestic arms industries, and 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.600 they have potent domestic militaries that are armed to a 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:51.520 comparable standard. Right, and so there's a few things happening here. 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.880 I do not want to lose count of the fact 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.840 that people are dying. Obviously, civilians died in that attack 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.880 in Kashmir. At the moment, it looks like the death 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:03.720 toll from the initial Indian strikes is somewhere around forty. 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.680 Pakistan is claiming the vast majority of those are civilians. 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.600 India is claiming that they only hit infrastructure associated with 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.760 the terrorist group that they believe carried out the attacks 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.920 in Kashmir that they claim is being supported by Pakistan. 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:21.440 There is substantial evidence the majority of the dead are civilians. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.240 People have claimed that large chunks of their families were 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:26.720 wiped out in these strikes. I don't see any reason 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:29.600 to doubt that, knowing how air strikes work. A good 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:31.760 number of the dead, though, have also occurred as a 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.680 result of cross border artillery fire, and it's unclear to 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:38.360 me if India and Pakistan have had a full on 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:41.240 artillery duel across the border, or if this is Pakistan's 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:44.360 artillery firing back in response to the air strikes, that 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.080 part is unclear. There are also videos where you could 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.880 hear small arms fire, so machine guns and the like, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:53.560 and reports that that is coming from Pakistan's side too. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.600 It's possible there is a cross border direct arm engagement. 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:58.960 It's possible no one died as a result of the 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:02.440 small arms fire, given the distances that this is occurring 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.040 at right, that the only nets have been due to 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.520 field artillery and due to missile stripes, right, that seems 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:09.839 likely at this point. It's possible the death toll is 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.840 much higher than forty, but that's somewhere around there is 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:15.840 what's been confirmed right now. Now we have talked about 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.520 the deaths. Obviously, the biggest concern is the loss in 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:22.920 human life. Here, I am going to talk about what 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.640 this means on a military level, because that is relevant 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:28.960 both how this conflict is going to proceed and how 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.080 future conflicts are going to proceed, because we have not 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:34.120 seen a peer on peer fight like this before in 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:38.560 this century, right, So one of the more important things 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:40.679 as to how this has preceded is that a number 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.120 of the jets that India launched across the border are 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:46.240 what are called refalls our afal E. This is a 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:50.400 French fighter jet. It is broadly considered to be equivalent 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:54.040 to an F eighteen super Hornet. Now, I say that 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.440 if you go online and you listen to people who 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:00.800 are nerds about fighter jets, they will pull a knife 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:01.960 on you for claiming that. 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:02.440 Right. 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.360 There are major differences between the two airframes. One of 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.720 them is that the Refall is a larger plane, which 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:11.400 means it's theoretically capable. Not theoretically, it is capable of 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.959 a significantly higher payload. However, there's a couple of problems 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.240 that come with that. One is that the super Hornet 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:19.400 not only is it a smaller craft, but it is 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.000 built for carrier duty, which means it's wings fold. Yeah, 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:23.959 you can fit more of them on a carrier. They 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.280 take off and land more easily from a carrier, or 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.280 a fall can take off and land from a carrier, 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.040 but it has to have a different load out right. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:34.240 The other issue, a super Hornet can stay supersonic with 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:37.560 its full payload for longer periods of time. That means 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.080 that it can be breaking the sound barrier consistently, not 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.160 just using its after burner for like a quick burst 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:45.280 of speed. That matters because the faster you're going, the 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:46.200 harder you are. 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:46.840 To shoot down. 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.240 The primary erit ground package it has is what's called 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:53.480 a hammer and that's an acronym hammer. I don't know 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:55.200 what it stands for off the top of my head, 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.439 but they are between two hundred and fifty and one 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.760 thousand pounds each. Right, these are their air to ground 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:03.040 men that they are equipped with standard. It's possible India 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.400 has a separate load out for them. I don't actually know. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:09.240 This is their standard armament. Now. They can only have 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:13.200 their full complement if they're not going supersonic, so they 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.880 cannot go supersonic for a comparable period of time to 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.360 a super Hornet if they have a full compliment. From 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:21.880 a military technology standpoint, the biggest news from the initial 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:25.000 stage of the strike is that at least one of 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:29.120 these refalls has been destroyed. There's decent evidence that potentially 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:32.319 another two. If India lost three of these jets they 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:36.720 have thirty six. That is a meaningful degradation of their 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.760 entire air force capability to strike. Right. Losing these jets 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.040 and they cannot be replaced on any kind of timeframe 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:46.320 that is comparable to how quickly they're being shot down. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:50.520 Pakistan is claiming significantly more that they Pakistan's claim is 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.600 that they've downed three rafalls, one MiG twenty nine, one 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:57.640 SU thirty MKI and at least one Israeli made herondrone. 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:02.319 People generally say Pakistan is probably exaggerating. However, French authorities 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:05.040 have confirmed at least one rafall, and there's two more 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.240 than possibilities that are being looked into. It's possible three 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.160 planes were downed, but only one was a refall. We 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.040 don't really know yet, right, but even one is a 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.160 meaningful loss, and the fact that it was downed says 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:18.960 a couple of things. One thing is that there's a 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.000 decent chance what I suspect we might hear, especially if 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.640 three of these went down, is that India sent these 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.480 things off with a full strike package, so they were 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:30.200 not able to go as fast as they normally can, 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:34.040 and thus we're not able to evade Pakistan's anti air defenses. Right, 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:36.839 that may be what happened. The other thing that we're 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:40.280 seeing here is that Pakistan is equipped. They buy the 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:42.480 best part and Pakistan has a lot of S three 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.600 hundreds and S four hundreds, I believe, which are like 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.000 what we've seen in Ukraine. Those have had a very 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.079 mixed operational history in terms of their capability to take 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.640 out modern aircraft. Pakistan also has a lot of PL 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:57.000 fifteen radar guided anti air missiles. These are Chinese anti 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.160 aircraft missiles. They have never been used in combat before. 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.440 If you're a nerd for like modern military technology, one 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.320 of the things people have been talking about in that 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:06.920 field for a long time is like, how are these 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:10.240 going to function? And we just know that they've been 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.839 used because wreckage from them has been found and photographed 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.480 and people who are experts in these missiles online have 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:20.560 confirmed this is from this weapons package. It is very 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:23.679 likely that the Rafal that was down was downed by 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.360 this missile, and if more than one was down, that 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.959 they were all downed by these missiles. So that tells 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.120 us a lot about the comparable capabilities of both this 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:34.520 modern Western fighter that the French are selling and of 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.800 this Chinese anti aircraft missile. Right, and so that's really 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.600 relevant if we're looking at both how this conflict is 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:42.240 going to proceed, Because I don't want to be coming 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.360 up from this bloodless like, Oh, I'm just interested in 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:47.720 the military strategy part. This is relevant because if India 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:51.040 has lost three of these advanced fighters that they cannot 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:54.320 replace on any kind of comparable timeframe in the first 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.439 few hours of strikes, that suggests one of two potential 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:02.280 future outcomes. Number One, the tempo of use of advanced 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:06.079 aircraft in this war is going to change considerably as 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.640 it drags into the next stages, right, because they simply 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.440 can't maintain that tempo. That can't continue to take those 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:15.280 sort of risks, and that either means moving on to 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:19.640 a lot more ground engagements between infantry, between tanks between artillery, 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:22.400 like direct face to face shit, or a potential for 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.840 escalating things to the next level. And the only next 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:28.400 level higher than where we're at is nuclear, Right. I 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.760 don't think that is the likeliest outcome. I do not 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.040 think a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India is the 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:38.000 likeliest thing at this point. However, the rate at which 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.360 India is a tritting air assets means that they're going 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.160 to have to make a choice in the not too 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.800 distant future. Right, Although it's also worth noting we don't 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:49.440 know entirely the degree to which Pakistan's anti air defenses 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:51.200 have been attreated by this. Right, there's a lot of 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.720 open there's a lot of unknown unknowns and known unknowns here. Right. 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:57.760 As our good friend Rumsfeld would say, I will say 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.360 the other issue here, if there is a nuclear ext change, 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.920 it's going to be the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the century. 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.760 That doesn't mean it's going to be a nuclear war 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.640 across the entire world, and that shouldn't be your first concern. 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.720 Your first concern should be that that would still mean 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.200 millions of deaths in India and Pakistan, potentially at least 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:16.120 hundreds of thousands. 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:16.520 Right. 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.400 The concern is not they start, so everyone else does, 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.800 it's they start, and thus the worst humanitarian disaster since 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.160 World War two occurs. 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:24.760 Yeah. 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.440 I mean some of the most densely populated cities on 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.200 Earth are in this region. Like a strike in any 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:31.760 major city that would be devastating. 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.040 Yeah, a strike in Islamabad would be the worst thing 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.280 that's happened, possibly since the Holocaust, in terms of like 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.000 human death told due to human actions. 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.080 Yeah, it's pretty bad. 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:42.800 I know. 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:46.320 India claimed that they were launching a quote non escalatory 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.080 strike in it so much as that means shit. 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:48.640 Yes. 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.560 They also claimed that they PL fifteen didn't have its 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.120 intercept ahead, which I guess the French intelligence refuted. 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.720 Yeah, and this is all There's a lot that's unknown 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.080 about kind of how these weapons have performed still, but 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:02.320 these are in terms of both how this conflict is 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:05.160 going to proceed and how future conflicts will proceed. These 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:07.120 are things you should be looking at because these weapons 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.000 platforms there. This is important in terms of what war 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:11.200 is going to continue to look like. 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:14.040 I think it's also worth noting a couple of things. 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:18.280 One is that this is by far the largest like 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.160 clash that these countries have had in a long time. 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.040 But also like there have been like periodic like cross 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:26.920 border skirmishes around Casume for a while now, right like 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.720 there was a pretty big flare up in twenty twenty 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.280 that kind of less than twenty twenty one, And so 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:35.360 there is a chance that this doesn't turn into a 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.720 full scale war and that you get something more like 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:43.240 what happened sort of recently with Israel and Ran, where 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.240 they like bomb each other a few times and then 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:48.160 everyone sort of packs up their bags and goes home 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.480 and continues to like poke each other with militant groups 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.640 instead of it being like tanks. And I think that 0:16:55.720 --> 0:17:00.360 is like orders of magnitude more likely than like nukes flying. Yeah, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:03.440 just it's sort of like, yeah, like the chance at 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:05.520 which these people start shooting dukes to each other is 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:06.359 not very high. 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:07.760 Like yes, just like in. 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.919 The history of nuclear weapons too, you have to understand that, 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.639 like some of the most unhinged people who have ever lived, 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.800 like Curtis le May, like the US and the Soviets 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.760 never did it, like Mao Mao and the Soviets never 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:22.359 did it, Like apartheid South Africa had nuclear weapons and 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.560 never use them. Some of the worst people who have 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:26.440 ever lived have had access to the nukes, have never 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.040 fired them. The odds that you're gonna die in nuclear 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:32.280 fire are very very, very very very low. It's not 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.639 good now, everything that's happening here is very bad. But 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.920 like you do not need to be like living in 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.560 existential terror of like fire raining from the sky. That's 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:44.320 not like a reasonable reaction to this, and I've been 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:44.919 seeing a lot of that. 0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:49.359 So no, it's it's far from the likeliest outcome, and 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.720 your primary concern should be to people who are living 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:53.560 there right now. 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:55.359 Yeah, yeah, right. 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:57.919 You know, it's worth noting that the nineteen ninety nine 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:01.520 and the Cargo War, that was not an insignal death toll, right, 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.960 Like you're talking probably like certainly more than a thousand, 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.359 I think one thousand to a couple one thousand people, 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:12.920 So that would not be that's not certainly not out 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.800 of the question without it escalating in that way. I 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.760 think the primary concern that you always have, and why 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.359 I bring up weapons systems, is that countries think in 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.200 terms of stuff like this a lot. This is a 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:24.600 big part of why we get World War one. 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:24.880 Right. 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:27.119 You have these nations that are arming, and they're always 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.600 concerned with how do my weapons compare to my neighbors 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:32.040 if we go to war. Now, I feel pretty good 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.720 about where I'm at, and if I wait another two years, 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.560 maybe they'll be in a better position. And thinking like 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.520 that is part of the planning that's going on in 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.879 these states, and the planning about when do we escalate 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.600 and how do we escalate? Right, do we move to 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:48.159 a point where we've got masses of infantry shooting at 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.400 each other, Well, maybe if we can't risk the continued 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:54.159 attrition of our advanced air assets, we do that, or 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:56.679 maybe we make another decision. That's why it's relevant to 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:58.400 know about this stuff, not because you want to nerd 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.560 out over who's got the coolest missile, who's got the 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.560 coolest planes, but because that is very much how states think. 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.560 Right anyway, before we're going to add to tight this 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.280 back to the executive dysfunction, because that is what this 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:12.760 is about, yea, not the current Wars podcast. In the 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:16.880 immediate wake of all of this, President Trump was asked about, Hey, 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:20.240 how about these two nuclear armed states going to war? 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.199 What do you think about that? And he gave a, 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:27.880 you know, just a traditionally eloquent, you know, Donald Trump response, 0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:30.440 It's a shame we just heard about it. I guess 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:32.800 people knew something was going to happen based on a 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.119 little bit of the past. They've been fighting for a 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:42.560 long time. I just hope it ends quickly, me too, buddy, correct, 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:49.240 I guess I guess they've been fighting for a long time. Okay, anyway, 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:57.720 let's go to ads. 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:04.040 All right, we are back. 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:11.440 I'm gonna talk now about some other horrifying geopolitical news. Hey, 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.760 this is Garrison from Friday May ninth. I have a 0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:17.760 correction to make on the original copy of this episode. 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:21.040 I made an error in saying Greta Thunberg was aboard 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.520 a humanitarian aid ship off the coast of Italy that 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:28.080 was airstriked by Israel. The ship was indeed attacked, but 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.560 she was not on that ship. I watched a video 0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:33.240 of her discussing the attack and it sounded first person, 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:36.160 and then we recorded shortly thereafter. But now it's clear 0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:39.320 she was not on this ship but instead planned to 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:43.159 board later that day on the way to Gaza as 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:47.440 a part of the humanitarian aid organization the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. 0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:50.680 More than a dozen other aid workers were aboard the 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:53.639 vessel when it was hit, and this relates to the 0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:57.959 larger humanitarian aid crisis in Gaza. Now back to the episode. 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:03.440 The past two months, Israel has forcibly cut off all food, water, machines, supplies, 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:07.960 and other humanitarian aid to Gaza, starving the Palatinian people. 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:11.359 As not Naho continues to reject ceasefire deals. Reports from 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.320 the UN say that Gaza will run out of food 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:14.240 in days. 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.240 Yep, I mean it looks like a starvation genocide. I 0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:19.600 don't know how else to phrase this. There's really nothing else. 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:23.040 This isn't the time to mince words like every piece 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:26.160 of evidence suggests this is a starvation genocide being carried out, 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:29.080 that they're trying to starve this population to death or 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:32.360 until they all leave, which is the same. Genocide does 0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:34.720 not necessarily mean you kill everyone. It is the forced 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:37.200 killing and or displacement of a population. 0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:41.320 Yeah, Israel says that the Palestinians still have food for 0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:44.480 a few months, but the UN and other aid organizations 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:45.840 say that is not true. 0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:46.440 Now. 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:50.840 Last Sunday night, Israel's Security cabinet approved a plan to 0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:54.880 reoccupy and hold the Gaza Strip if a new Seaspire 0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:58.320 deal isn't reached by May fifteenth, while Yahoo and Israeli 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:03.440 officials continue to undermine negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. This 0:22:03.480 --> 0:22:06.800 plan is called Gideon's Chariots. 0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:08.160 Jesus fucking Christ. 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:10.600 The plan is for the IDF to invade with four 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:16.000 to five armored infantry divisions, mobilizing uproots of seventy thousand reservists, 0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:21.040 which would gradually occupy and secure basically the entire Gaza Strip. 0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:26.040 According to Israel's Finance Minister, this IDF occupation would be permanent, 0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:29.920 not even pulling back with the release of any remaining hostages, 0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:32.919 though other Israeli officials disagree on this and say this 0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:36.600 would be a temporary occupation. Pretty hard to take their 0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:41.520 word on that all remaining buildings would be destroyed, flattening 0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:43.800 the entirety of the strip, just like Rafa and the 0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:48.080 northern side. Amir Aviv, the founder of the Israel Defense 0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.040 and Security Forum think tank and a former deputy commander 0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:54.399 of the Israeli forces, say, quote, this is the only 0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:58.840 way to eradicate Hamas militarily and governmentally is to take 0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:03.120 over Gaza and to conquer the area and destroy them unquote. 0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:08.320 There's some added complications with like legally like occupying Gaza 0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:12.479 under the Geneva Convention, a formal occupation would require Israel 0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:15.680 to have the capacity to operate as an official government 0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:19.800 authority in this region. Now, there's no indication that Israel 0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:22.480 will like follow the Geneva Convention, as they haven't. 0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:23.240 Yeah, it's Israel. 0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:25.520 They never have given a shit, Yeah don't. 0:23:25.560 --> 0:23:27.000 I don't see why we'd expect that. 0:23:27.720 --> 0:23:31.080 But if they do occupy, they they would be more 0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.439 like liable for the well being of the Palestinians that 0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:37.520 would be inside the territory and the IDEF doesn't have 0:23:37.560 --> 0:23:40.720 a plan for this. They are planning to forcedly relocate 0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:45.240 around two million Palestinians to a single quote unquote humanitarian 0:23:45.400 --> 0:23:49.639 area which is positioned in the rubble of Ratha, where 0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:54.240 secure quote unquote compounds are being constructed to distribute food 0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:57.800 and supplies to Palestinians who are screened and approved as 0:23:57.960 --> 0:24:02.960 not being members of Hamas. This area will be managed 0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:07.520 by private US companies and a quote unquote new international foundation, 0:24:08.200 --> 0:24:12.280 which works with Israel and the United States established aid 0:24:12.400 --> 0:24:14.600 organizations in the un announced that they would not be 0:24:14.640 --> 0:24:18.040 participating in running these quote unquote compounds, calling this a 0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:21.320 tactic to give the Israeli military even more power over 0:24:21.359 --> 0:24:24.800 how aid is distributed, saying in a statement quote it 0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:30.200 contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control 0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:33.320 over life sustaining items as a pressure tactic as part 0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:36.800 of a military strategy. It is dangerous driving civilians into 0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:40.760 militarized zones to collect rations, threatening lives, including those of 0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:48.800 humanitarian workers, while further entrenching forced DISPLACEMENTEEAH an Israeli official 0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:51.240 said the only alternative to being moved to this quote 0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:55.240 unquote humanitarian area would be to leave Gaza quote unquote 0:24:55.359 --> 0:25:00.639 voluntarily to other countries, citing Trump's plan to resettle displaced Powerians. 0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:05.200 Robert James Miya, do you want to comment on this? 0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:09.280 It's not much to say, so, like it's they're just 0:25:09.400 --> 0:25:11.600 saying the thing that they've been going for for a 0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:13.720 while now, which is the removal of all panasty to 0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:16.280 get people from the Goddess trip, either in body bags 0:25:16.400 --> 0:25:17.680 or to live somewhere else. 0:25:17.720 --> 0:25:19.200 I guess it's just straight up a genocide. 0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:21.080 Like they're describing a genocide. 0:25:21.240 --> 0:25:23.959 Yeah, there's no doubting it. Like I don't even know, 0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:26.960 Like what is it? What is there to say? Right? 0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:31.280 Like at this point, I almost think other than obviously 0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.120 documenting what's happening is important, the only important thing to 0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:36.239 try to talk about it is like how can this 0:25:36.320 --> 0:25:40.879 be stopped? And or how can a degree of like 0:25:41.000 --> 0:25:44.920 what does justice look like at some point down the line? 0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:46.160 What should be done? 0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:47.040 You know? 0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:51.080 Like these are questions to ask, but like to just 0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:53.800 like I don't know what to keep saying other than like, yep, 0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:55.960 they're trying to wipe out Gaza like. 0:25:57.000 --> 0:26:00.280 Well, and specifically the use of these like quote unquote compounds, 0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:04.440 You're like rounding up and keeping people inside one secure. 0:26:04.040 --> 0:26:06.000 Area, concentrating the main camps. 0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:08.440 Like come on, guys, you're just setting up camps for 0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:11.040 Palestinians on the south side of the strip and like 0:26:11.080 --> 0:26:13.960 that's all that this is as they reoccupy and hold 0:26:13.960 --> 0:26:19.119 the entirety to quote unquote eliminate Hamas. So this Monday, 0:26:19.160 --> 0:26:21.080 Trump's going to start a three day visit to Saudi 0:26:21.080 --> 0:26:24.600 Arabia Cutter and the United Arab Emirates. This is while 0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:27.520 the US government has taken a backfoot on Gaza negotiations 0:26:27.720 --> 0:26:30.760 while still backing up net Yahoo and any actions taken 0:26:30.800 --> 0:26:35.120 by the Israeli military. Yeah, so we will know more 0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:39.119 about what Israel is actually going to do immediately in 0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:42.399 the region in like a week's time. Though it looks 0:26:42.440 --> 0:26:44.240 like they are going to be going forward with this 0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:46.280 May fifteenth reoccupation plan. 0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:47.240 Cool. 0:26:47.840 --> 0:26:53.040 Well, yeah, so more good news from me. Immigration update. 0:26:53.440 --> 0:26:56.440 The New York Times today on the this is Wednesday 0:26:56.480 --> 0:27:00.640 the seventh is reporting that the Trump administration is as 0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:03.440 soon as today. I checked this before recording. The plane 0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:08.600 haven't taken off planning to ship people to migrants to Libya. 0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:12.639 The nationalities of people being renditioned there are not clear, 0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:14.919 but my guess would be that these are third party 0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:17.520 nationals that the US can't deport to their home countries 0:27:18.400 --> 0:27:21.840 like they previously deported these people to Panama and to Elsabadov. 0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:26.199 If you're not familiar with migrant detention in Libya, conditions 0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:31.919 are horrific, like among the worst things that can happen 0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:35.159 to people. The situation in Libya is currently the country 0:27:35.200 --> 0:27:38.760 is divided between the Tripoli government, which is recognized by 0:27:38.760 --> 0:27:41.200 the UN and which the US has formal government government 0:27:41.240 --> 0:27:45.760 relationships with, and Hafta's government based in Benghazi, which the 0:27:45.840 --> 0:27:52.080 Trump regime has associated with. Before. We have covered conditions 0:27:52.119 --> 0:27:54.840 in Libyan migrant detention camps before, which i'll chack in 0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:58.760 the show notes. And we also talked about the dangers 0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:00.879 faced by people leaving Libya towards the EU in a 0:28:00.880 --> 0:28:04.879 different episode, which I also list. But to recap, reports 0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:11.760 document starvation, rape, murder, slavery, and organ harvesting occurring in Libya. 0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:15.119 Mass graves, including one last year that was found with 0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:19.120 sixty five bodies in it, are not uncommon to quote 0:28:19.160 --> 0:28:22.680 from David Yambio. David Yambio is someone who was He 0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:25.200 was sold and then forced to fight in a militia 0:28:25.240 --> 0:28:28.720 in Libya, and I think, I believe he escaped and 0:28:28.760 --> 0:28:31.119 he is now in I think he's in Italy, but 0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:34.040 he's ready to be outspoken on this stuff. The slave 0:28:34.119 --> 0:28:36.720 trade is alive and thriving in Libya. It thrives in 0:28:36.800 --> 0:28:39.840 the silence of nations, in the shadows of complicit systems, 0:28:40.120 --> 0:28:43.720 and then the unchecked racism that dehumanizes black lives in 0:28:44.320 --> 0:28:49.560 other immigration US The government's attempt to delay Rumsa Oztek's 0:28:49.560 --> 0:28:53.720 return to Vermont was rejected by the second Circuit, so 0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:56.360 that means that she will have to be returned to 0:28:57.080 --> 0:28:59.600 She was arrested in Massachusetts, if you remember, for writing 0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:00.080 an op. 0:29:00.240 --> 0:29:01.560 At Tufts University. Yeah. 0:29:01.880 --> 0:29:05.120 Yeah, moved across state borders to Vermont and from their 0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:09.320 central Louisiana. So the habeas case was transferred to Vermont 0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:13.160 and as a rule that the government cannot de laboring 0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:18.560 her back there anymore. Another flight containing eighty one migrants 0:29:18.640 --> 0:29:22.800 left Panama yesterday at the United States expense. This is 0:29:22.800 --> 0:29:26.080 the continuation of a plan that the Biaen administration installed 0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:29.240 in summer last year, and the Trump administration has continued 0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:34.880 whereby the US funds deportations from Panama. Meanwhile, Tokyo Weekender 0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:38.080 in Japan is reporting that the United States is asking 0:29:38.160 --> 0:29:42.560 people to show five years of social media history in 0:29:42.640 --> 0:29:46.240 order to obtain a student visa, just to put that 0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:48.640 in perspective for people. So you have to either those 0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:51.880 accounts are deleted or no longer used, you have to 0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:55.120 declare them all on your form. If you're applying for 0:29:55.240 --> 0:29:57.400 student visa and you're at the younger end of a 0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:00.800 traditional aged undergraduate, you could have to list every social 0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:04.760 mediacount you've had since you were twelve on this form. 0:30:04.880 --> 0:30:07.640 And the US has required disclosure for a while, but 0:30:07.680 --> 0:30:10.040 like it hasn't been a practical thing. I haven't really 0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:13.480 ever heard from any one of anybody's visa being denied 0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:17.440 or asylum being denied based on social media posting. But 0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:20.240 this is now something that that they are asking people 0:30:20.280 --> 0:30:21.360 to disclose. 0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:24.680 Well and requiring, not like requiring it, not asking it 0:30:24.720 --> 0:30:25.960 is it is. It is going to be like an 0:30:26.120 --> 0:30:30.040 enforced requirement in a way that before it really hasn't been. 0:30:30.080 --> 0:30:33.440 It's the term that the law firm used in this 0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:35.760 piece is like in the past, this has been mostly 0:30:35.800 --> 0:30:39.480 quote unquote negligible. Yeah, and now this is something that 0:30:39.760 --> 0:30:43.480 the Department of State is really being adamant about. 0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:48.120 Yeah, which will massively delay the time to process visa 0:30:48.120 --> 0:30:50.120 applications on top of everything else. 0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:53.280 People in Japan have compared this to two policies similar 0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:55.680 to that of China's Cultural Revolution. 0:30:56.960 --> 0:30:57.240 Yeah. 0:30:57.720 --> 0:31:00.400 I mean I've been to other countries to be clear, 0:31:00.440 --> 0:31:02.440 where they open up your social media and look at 0:31:02.440 --> 0:31:04.360 it when you're entering. But this is not a thing 0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:08.160 that anyone has ever associated with the United States. Finally, 0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:11.080 I guess the Freedom of the Press Foundation got some 0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:14.200 documentary release under a federal Freedom of Information Act. The 0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:17.760 outline that the intelligence community did not believe that the 0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:20.960 Maduro regime was controlling tender Agua, which was one of 0:31:20.960 --> 0:31:25.200 the claims that Trump administration has made in its invocation 0:31:25.360 --> 0:31:28.960 of the Alien Enemies Act. Right, So it's just kind 0:31:29.000 --> 0:31:31.320 of I think most people who pay any attention to 0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:34.920 the situation weren't really buying that, but but it's showing 0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:38.360 that this was documented by the US intelligence community as well. 0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:42.840 So yeah, any anything to add that the Libya stuff 0:31:42.920 --> 0:31:47.080 is bleak like it hasn't got much coverage in the US. 0:31:47.160 --> 0:31:49.920 We have covered it before, but the European Union is 0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:52.760 already complicit in the terrible treatment of migrants in Libya. 0:31:52.800 --> 0:31:55.120 And oh yeah, and for ages it has happened for 0:31:55.160 --> 0:31:57.720 ages like the so called Libyan Coast Guard of bringing 0:31:57.720 --> 0:32:00.480 people back to Libya and like literally set them from 0:32:00.480 --> 0:32:04.960 shelters to human traffickers. I mean, we've more or less 0:32:05.040 --> 0:32:08.600 kind of lined up behind some of the worst places 0:32:08.640 --> 0:32:11.920 on earth, like in terms of migrant detention, right with 0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:13.040 SECOT and this. 0:32:13.400 --> 0:32:17.160 Yeah, more and more families are figuring out that like 0:32:17.200 --> 0:32:19.840 their family members have been sent to SCOT, like people 0:32:19.880 --> 0:32:22.000 who have not been named an official documentation. They've been 0:32:22.000 --> 0:32:25.800 able to search through these propaganda videos and identify more people, 0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:30.560 so they're launching court cases to have them returned, people 0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:33.840 who very clearly have had no gang affiliation. Not that 0:32:33.840 --> 0:32:36.000 that should even matter when you're sending people to the 0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:36.800 forever prison. 0:32:37.600 --> 0:32:40.600 Yeah. I saw one guy we've had a Donald Duck tattoo, 0:32:40.640 --> 0:32:44.360 and that was I guess the decisive claim there. Right, 0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:47.880 there's a form that ICE agents fill out, and there's 0:32:47.880 --> 0:32:49.200 a number of points they have to a mass I 0:32:49.200 --> 0:32:51.000 believe it's three points and one of the things that 0:32:51.000 --> 0:32:53.240 can allow you to a mass three points. It's like, 0:32:53.480 --> 0:32:56.640 I think two points come from a tattoo, which which 0:32:56.680 --> 0:32:58.880 they decide to be gang affiliated and. 0:32:58.920 --> 0:33:01.960 No, and again like they seem to just be saying 0:33:02.000 --> 0:33:06.360 tattoos period, right, Like anything is trindagua, right. 0:33:06.280 --> 0:33:08.920 Yeah, right, people who have like soccer tattoos, people who 0:33:09.000 --> 0:33:11.680 have I love my mom and dad tattoos, It doesn't matter. 0:33:11.800 --> 0:33:14.240 There's an autism awareness tattoos. 0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:17.920 Yeah, some guy had an autism awareness Yeah. That one 0:33:18.320 --> 0:33:23.160 like haunts me because I have met young neurodivergent people 0:33:23.160 --> 0:33:25.000 and their families who are bringing them to the US 0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:27.880 to get what they thought was a better standard of care, 0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:31.480 right to allow their children to progress and have a 0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:36.000 beautiful life. Yeah, man, that one like, like, I honestly 0:33:36.000 --> 0:33:38.480 really struggle with that. I have spent lots and lots 0:33:38.520 --> 0:33:42.000 and lots of time with Venezuelan migrants and like they're 0:33:42.000 --> 0:33:46.120 my friends. And that particular one, like people whose children 0:33:47.040 --> 0:33:51.440 have any need for medical care right are overrepresented the 0:33:51.480 --> 0:33:54.560 migrant population because they just can't access it there, and 0:33:54.640 --> 0:33:57.480 so they upend their whole lives and carry their children 0:33:57.520 --> 0:33:59.640 across the continent to give them a chance at a 0:33:59.680 --> 0:34:02.720 better life life and like that one is particularly hard 0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:05.280 for me to win US. I did just want to 0:34:05.320 --> 0:34:08.799 mention on the topic of asylum. I have heard from 0:34:08.880 --> 0:34:12.520 so many migrants stuck in Mexico who are having a 0:34:12.680 --> 0:34:18.400 god awful time to include you know, robbery, kidnapping, sexual violence, 0:34:19.760 --> 0:34:22.200 of all of the things that we know can happen 0:34:22.200 --> 0:34:24.440 to migrants on the migrant trail. Because they have no 0:34:24.600 --> 0:34:27.359 pathway to get to the US, they're now just stuck there. Right. 0:34:27.800 --> 0:34:31.960 Mexico continues to take migrants and move them back south 0:34:32.000 --> 0:34:35.160 if it catches them near the United States border, even 0:34:36.080 --> 0:34:38.120 if some of them move up as far as Mexico City, 0:34:38.200 --> 0:34:40.480 right because they have access to services there, and then 0:34:40.960 --> 0:34:45.640 again sent back south to places where migrants have routinely 0:34:45.719 --> 0:34:48.560 been murdered. So I know, we're focusing a lot on 0:34:48.680 --> 0:34:52.880 migrants being kicked out of the US deported, renditioned. Conditions 0:34:52.880 --> 0:34:55.319 for migrants who aspired to come to the United States 0:34:55.360 --> 0:34:57.879 who took great risks to be Americans and are stuck 0:34:57.880 --> 0:34:59.760 in Mexico are also dire. 0:35:00.719 --> 0:35:03.200 All right, Let's go and break and then come back 0:35:03.239 --> 0:35:05.120 for a few more updates before we close out. 0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:20.319 Yeah, we're back. And wait a second, is that is 0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:22.160 that the tariff. 0:35:21.840 --> 0:35:29.560 Song Locky z b Jazz. 0:35:31.080 --> 0:35:37.120 Lock Locky Jazz by jazz Bob. 0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:39.840 All right, guys, I actually don't know. Do we have 0:35:39.880 --> 0:35:41.080 anything to say about tariffs this week? 0:35:41.160 --> 0:35:44.080 Yeah, we actually actually do us on Turff so good. 0:35:44.160 --> 0:35:46.000 I'm just we gotta get all of our use out 0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:48.640 of that song because again, we really do. We really 0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:51.040 had to suspend the whole team's healthcare to pay for it. 0:35:51.200 --> 0:35:55.479 It was monstrously expensive. The full cut of that song 0:35:55.719 --> 0:35:58.840 is seventeen and a half hours. We actually brought in 0:35:59.200 --> 0:36:02.120 the remaining members of Fleetwood Mac as well as several 0:36:02.320 --> 0:36:02.960 Rolling Stones. 0:36:03.120 --> 0:36:03.279 It was. 0:36:03.440 --> 0:36:04.960 It just just disastrous. 0:36:07.000 --> 0:36:09.960 So far, attempts to resurrect Joe's drama have failed, but 0:36:10.040 --> 0:36:11.280 we have spent million. 0:36:11.320 --> 0:36:13.719 We we only use the clip with our friend the 0:36:13.800 --> 0:36:17.120 Narcissist Cookbook. But yeah, there there is a twenty six 0:36:17.280 --> 0:36:20.719 minute drum solo with the guy from Rush geedty Lee. 0:36:20.760 --> 0:36:22.160 He's still alive, right, was it, geedty Lee? 0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:22.719 Yeah? 0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:25.760 Yeah, yeah, he's still alive. The joke works. The joke works, 0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:27.200 not cheap, not cheap. 0:36:28.040 --> 0:36:30.960 Yeah. Yeah, it's much like the dire Wolf thing. We've 0:36:31.000 --> 0:36:33.840 put Joe's drama's DNA into another court. Yeah, man, and 0:36:34.560 --> 0:36:36.400 does he worried. We've released him into the wild and 0:36:36.440 --> 0:36:37.560 we're going to see how he developed. 0:36:37.600 --> 0:36:39.760 So far, he just has a lot of blood clots. 0:36:39.840 --> 0:36:41.799 But we have we're home fielder on the case though. 0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:44.120 He's training him up. Well, we'll get him. We'll get 0:36:44.200 --> 0:36:44.440 him on. 0:36:44.600 --> 0:36:47.600 Here, all right, Yeah, yeah, pariffs good bad? 0:36:47.719 --> 0:36:48.440 What do you think you. 0:36:50.080 --> 0:36:50.360 Okay? 0:36:50.480 --> 0:36:52.960 So all right, let's let let's let's let's actually do 0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:53.319 this ship. 0:36:53.400 --> 0:36:54.799 So is it. One of the things that we've been 0:36:54.840 --> 0:36:57.640 talking about along on this show is the Deminimus exemption, 0:36:57.760 --> 0:37:01.239 which was this exemption that formerly allowed you was particularly 0:37:01.440 --> 0:37:05.040 used in trade with China where you could, like if 0:37:05.080 --> 0:37:07.279 you were setting a package that was under like seven 0:37:07.360 --> 0:37:09.440 hundred dollars, like it didn't have to like go through 0:37:09.480 --> 0:37:11.239 customs in a way that you would normally would have 0:37:11.320 --> 0:37:11.560 to do it. 0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:14.919 That shit's gone. That ended on Friday of last week. 0:37:15.560 --> 0:37:18.440 This has already skyrocketed the cost of doing imports of 0:37:18.480 --> 0:37:20.800 shit from China because huge amounts of stuff being shipped 0:37:20.800 --> 0:37:24.279 from China was you know, like reliant on shipping it 0:37:24.400 --> 0:37:27.080 in packages that were exactly six hundred and ninety nine dollars, 0:37:28.440 --> 0:37:30.960 and you know, this has like like Temu's entire business 0:37:31.040 --> 0:37:33.440 model has changed basically every night, where like they're no 0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:35.800 longer shipping stuff in from China, they're only selling stuff 0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:41.160 from like American distributors. This is going to have catastrophic 0:37:41.200 --> 0:37:43.799 effects on so many supply chains you've never even thought 0:37:43.840 --> 0:37:45.680 of in the weeks to come, because again, there are 0:37:45.760 --> 0:37:50.080 so many different like tiny screws and shit, like just 0:37:50.160 --> 0:37:52.600 like really really small items that you used to be 0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:55.920 able to get from China for like fucking five dollars 0:37:56.000 --> 0:38:00.839 for like one hundred of them that now have unbelievable 0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:02.520 tariff rates on them and have to go through a 0:38:02.600 --> 0:38:05.920 really really confluted customs process. There have already been sort 0:38:05.920 --> 0:38:08.360 of massive supply Chaine disruptions in a large number of industries. 0:38:08.400 --> 0:38:11.120 It's going to continue to get worse. Sophie was talking 0:38:11.160 --> 0:38:14.160 about metal imports hitting the construction industry because there's you know, 0:38:14.200 --> 0:38:16.040 there's terraffs on a bunch of different kinds of metal, 0:38:16.080 --> 0:38:17.960 as we've covered on the show, aluminum. 0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:19.919 God knows what's gonna happen to diet coke. 0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:23.359 We'll put it in lads, like God intended maybe that'll 0:38:23.440 --> 0:38:29.160 finally change Trump's outlook. Is when his diet coat heap. Yeah, yeah, 0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:31.240 Trump and Musk both become inoperable. 0:38:31.640 --> 0:38:34.480 You know, Garrison, we will know when that's hit when 0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:37.719 the missiles are in the air, like oh shitty ran out. 0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:42.120 Federal occupation of the Coca Cola headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. 0:38:42.400 --> 0:38:46.560 Yeah, so you know, and this is also like this, 0:38:46.800 --> 0:38:50.399 this is going to have a profound impact on Chinese economy. Again, 0:38:50.440 --> 0:38:52.839 we're still in sort of the waiting room until sort 0:38:52.840 --> 0:38:55.160 of Midsummer when all of the rest of the tariffs 0:38:55.200 --> 0:38:56.600 that were supposed to go into effect go back into 0:38:56.640 --> 0:38:58.440 effect and literally everything collapses. 0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:01.680 You're probably three to five weeks out from really starting 0:39:01.719 --> 0:39:03.800 to see it hit hard in like the stuff you 0:39:03.880 --> 0:39:05.960 buy on a day to day basis, right, People who 0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:08.839 are doing stuff like remodeling houses or building houses are 0:39:08.880 --> 0:39:13.720 starting to notice now. I think people car prepare businesses 0:39:13.760 --> 0:39:15.360 and one of people have to order parts. That is 0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:19.000 starting to hit. But your grocery store that's really going 0:39:19.040 --> 0:39:21.239 to be most noticeable somewhere between three and five weeks 0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:24.160 from now, maybe sooner, probably not much longer. 0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:26.440 Well, and other things are about to get sniffy and 0:39:26.480 --> 0:39:28.440 the worse. So this has been talked about for a 0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:30.919 long time. The buzz right now is that they're happening soon. 0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:33.920 I don't know exactly what that means, but there has 0:39:33.960 --> 0:39:36.160 been for a long long time. Trump has been talking 0:39:36.200 --> 0:39:40.279 about doing tariffs on pharma, So congratulations, get excited for 0:39:40.320 --> 0:39:43.400 all of your medication costing a lot more money. He 0:39:43.520 --> 0:39:47.520 also put into place a one hundred percent terrafund foreign movies. 0:39:47.760 --> 0:39:51.000 Well we'll see, yes, yeah, but then he walked that back. 0:39:51.080 --> 0:39:54.160 He had a conversation with John Voight and announced, Yeah, 0:39:54.160 --> 0:39:58.080 they're getting to that hundred percent tariff on all movies. 0:39:58.760 --> 0:39:59.000 Yeah. 0:40:00.840 --> 0:40:02.200 No one knows what that means. 0:40:02.360 --> 0:40:03.160 How can you do that? 0:40:03.280 --> 0:40:06.320 Do a terrafun of movie? What are we talking about it? 0:40:06.480 --> 0:40:08.920 It's literally it's literally just like like he's doing terriffs 0:40:08.960 --> 0:40:09.120 in the. 0:40:09.120 --> 0:40:10.560 Way that like there's that, but the guy for the 0:40:10.600 --> 0:40:12.719 Wolf of Wall Street is like what guy walks out 0:40:12.760 --> 0:40:14.719 of the room and goes short. Everything's ever touched Like 0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:17.480 it's like that thing. Yeah, like he's gonna be terriffing 0:40:17.640 --> 0:40:19.920 like fucking ocean currents in two months. 0:40:20.400 --> 0:40:23.480 The responses to it have been have been so funny 0:40:23.480 --> 0:40:26.560 because Gavin Newsome, arch dipshit of the Democratic Party, was 0:40:26.560 --> 0:40:29.640 immediately like, we love the idea of working with our 0:40:29.719 --> 0:40:32.680 president to keep the film jobs in California. 0:40:32.880 --> 0:40:33.040 You know. 0:40:33.600 --> 0:40:36.560 Meanwhile, Trump immediately was like, well, maybe we won't do that, 0:40:36.760 --> 0:40:40.040 I think because they're still at the very head of 0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:44.239 the studio system. Some scary old mob type dudes, right, 0:40:44.360 --> 0:40:45.959 and I think a few of them also. 0:40:46.080 --> 0:40:47.920 Tom Cruise is terrifying. 0:40:47.560 --> 0:40:53.960 Tom Cruise. Tom Cruise like, sat down, Donald. You know, 0:40:54.239 --> 0:40:56.879 no one's heard from David Mskovich's wife in a long 0:40:56.960 --> 0:40:59.120 ass time, and they don't have to hear from you either, 0:40:59.320 --> 0:41:00.600 Like you don't want to fuck with me? 0:41:01.640 --> 0:41:01.879 Yeah? 0:41:02.680 --> 0:41:06.200 Even Trump believes he actually is the mission impossible guy. 0:41:06.160 --> 0:41:08.080 And you could convince them, you could. 0:41:09.440 --> 0:41:12.520 Somebody convinced him, Yeah, something. 0:41:12.600 --> 0:41:15.320 Somebody convinced him to Nero's is like, didn't he reopen 0:41:15.440 --> 0:41:17.879 Alcatraz after the Alcatraz film? 0:41:18.040 --> 0:41:20.840 Ad on the lyric, Yes, but. 0:41:20.920 --> 0:41:22.920 It was the it was the Clint Eastwood one and 0:41:23.040 --> 0:41:26.960 not the much better Alcatraz film The Rock starring Sean 0:41:27.040 --> 0:41:31.560 Connery and Nicholas Cage a banger ages perfectly watch it, 0:41:31.680 --> 0:41:34.600 everyone watch it tonight reading any more news? 0:41:35.440 --> 0:41:38.160 Okay, there's more news though, unfortunately. Yeah, well okay, there 0:41:38.239 --> 0:41:40.000 there's one funny thing, and there's the like the actual 0:41:40.040 --> 0:41:41.520 news here is part of what's going on here is 0:41:41.560 --> 0:41:44.400 just everything is just chaos. And this is something that like, 0:41:44.600 --> 0:41:46.200 I mean, I've had this conversation with a bunch of 0:41:46.200 --> 0:41:48.279 people who work in shipping of the last couple of weeks. 0:41:48.360 --> 0:41:51.400 Is that like it's just chaos, right, Like everything is 0:41:51.520 --> 0:41:53.719 changing all the time. And this means every time one 0:41:53.719 --> 0:41:55.520 of these things changes, a bunch of like the import 0:41:55.560 --> 0:41:58.239 coaches and like suff just changes on the level of 0:41:58.480 --> 0:42:02.560 like the customs people, and like just like like literally 0:42:02.640 --> 0:42:04.840 the process of importing this stuff changes, and it's just 0:42:04.920 --> 0:42:08.719 a complete fucking disaster. People are getting laid off constantly too, 0:42:09.040 --> 0:42:10.920 so like every single part of the goverment that's supposed 0:42:10.920 --> 0:42:13.279 to be doing this suddenly has less people. It's it's 0:42:13.280 --> 0:42:15.239 an absolute rolling catash and for you will continue to 0:42:15.280 --> 0:42:18.080 get worse. There's also good evidence that like they know 0:42:18.239 --> 0:42:20.000 that it's gonna get worse. I'm gonna read this quote 0:42:20.040 --> 0:42:23.200 from USA today, Well this is from Trump. I don't 0:42:23.239 --> 0:42:25.520 think a beautiful baby and that's eleven years old needs 0:42:25.560 --> 0:42:27.960 to have thirty dollars. Trump told Meet the Press House 0:42:28.360 --> 0:42:30.480 Kirsten Welker, I think they can have three or four 0:42:30.560 --> 0:42:32.960 dolls because what we're doing with China is just unbelievable. 0:42:33.160 --> 0:42:35.040 We have a trade deficit of hundreds of billions of 0:42:35.080 --> 0:42:37.600 dollars for China. I'm just saying, they don't need to 0:42:37.640 --> 0:42:39.600 have thirty dollars. They can have belief. They don't need 0:42:39.600 --> 0:42:42.040 to have one hundred and fifty pencils. They can have five, 0:42:42.760 --> 0:42:43.520 five pencils. 0:42:43.600 --> 0:42:47.719 Everyone, five pencils and three dollars this Christmas. Imagine if 0:42:47.800 --> 0:42:49.560 Joe Biden an now it's like, all right, we're gonna 0:42:49.560 --> 0:42:51.080 have to cut down on Christmas gifts this year. 0:42:51.160 --> 0:42:54.480 We can't do it. Uh, the Fox News would be 0:42:54.640 --> 0:42:56.279 like freaking the fuck out. 0:42:56.400 --> 0:43:00.279 We're like, Joe Biden's taking away your kid's Christmas and 0:43:00.480 --> 0:43:03.040 the pencils and yeah who cares. 0:43:03.960 --> 0:43:04.960 Yeah, But I mean like like the. 0:43:04.960 --> 0:43:06.879 Actual SIS thing here is like yeah, no, like these 0:43:06.880 --> 0:43:09.160 people understand that you're going to suffer. They don't give 0:43:09.160 --> 0:43:10.920 a shit. We want you to suffer. 0:43:11.200 --> 0:43:16.200 Ye, the political project, Yeah, so you know, yeah, owning 0:43:16.239 --> 0:43:20.080 the Libs anyway? Is that all for tariff talkbia? Yeah, 0:43:20.160 --> 0:43:22.480 that's that's all we got on. That's how we got 0:43:22.520 --> 0:43:23.080 on the tariffs. 0:43:23.520 --> 0:43:26.239 I am excited for for Trump to meet Ethan Hunt 0:43:26.400 --> 0:43:29.000 on his last mission, So there's still hope. 0:43:29.239 --> 0:43:29.560 All right. 0:43:29.880 --> 0:43:31.920 I have a few more updates before we close out here. 0:43:32.560 --> 0:43:36.680 One on the federal judge back and forth of last week. 0:43:36.800 --> 0:43:40.120 US District judge blocked the Trump Admin's efforts via executive 0:43:40.200 --> 0:43:43.239 order to require what they deem as proof of citizenship 0:43:43.320 --> 0:43:45.879 to register to vote. The judge stated that this case 0:43:45.960 --> 0:43:49.120 was about separation of powers and undue presidential interference in 0:43:49.200 --> 0:43:53.200 how states in Congress run and regulate elections, writing, quote, 0:43:53.360 --> 0:43:56.480 our Constitution in trusts Congress and the States, not the 0:43:56.560 --> 0:43:59.760 President with the authority to regulate federal elections. No statutory 0:43:59.800 --> 0:44:02.720 delgation of authority to the executive branch permits the President 0:44:02.760 --> 0:44:07.080 to short circuit Congress's deliberative process by executive order. Yeah, 0:44:07.440 --> 0:44:10.439 so we'll see how that develops for now. I'll also 0:44:10.520 --> 0:44:12.560 be doing an update on the Save Act as it 0:44:13.000 --> 0:44:15.680 makes its way through Congress as well, for those interested, 0:44:15.800 --> 0:44:18.640 another kind of voting suppression bill that's getting a push 0:44:18.680 --> 0:44:23.560 through This Tuesday, the Supreme Court upheld the trans military ban, 0:44:23.680 --> 0:44:27.160 at least for now, it'll still process through appeals, but 0:44:27.239 --> 0:44:29.799 the Trump administration is now allowed to enforce the ban, 0:44:29.960 --> 0:44:33.000 which they previously couldn't because a lower court put the 0:44:33.200 --> 0:44:34.440 enforcement on hold. 0:44:35.200 --> 0:44:37.800 Yeah, so I think the actual scariest part about that 0:44:38.000 --> 0:44:40.440 is if you read the if you read the language 0:44:40.440 --> 0:44:42.640 of what the court was talking about, they've been describing 0:44:42.680 --> 0:44:45.600 it as like someone who thinks that like they are 0:44:45.640 --> 0:44:47.839 a woman when they're actually a man, Like isn't someone 0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:50.319 who can perform at like the standards of like honor 0:44:50.400 --> 0:44:52.719 and whatever that like a soldier needs. And this is 0:44:52.800 --> 0:44:55.000 I think a ramp up to the really really dangerous 0:44:55.000 --> 0:44:56.600 thing that is coming, which is their attempt to just 0:44:56.640 --> 0:44:58.600 straight up brand being trans as fraud. 0:44:59.040 --> 0:45:01.600 I mean, this is the this is the Trump Admin's argument, correct, 0:45:01.719 --> 0:45:02.720 this is what they were writing. 0:45:03.080 --> 0:45:05.920 Yeah, yeah, this is the statement I guess that the 0:45:06.280 --> 0:45:09.920 DoD is claiming that expressing a quote false gender identity 0:45:10.200 --> 0:45:13.720 divergent from an individual sex can't satisfy the rigorous standards 0:45:13.800 --> 0:45:17.000 necessarily for military service. And they specifically talk about a 0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:21.200 soldier's commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle, even 0:45:21.239 --> 0:45:24.520 in one's personal life, And they then go ahead to 0:45:24.640 --> 0:45:29.279 claim that being trans inherently contradicts that. 0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:33.200 That's the Trump Admin's argument, which is going to be 0:45:33.520 --> 0:45:36.800 like used to undermine transmitter rights in the future, possibly 0:45:36.840 --> 0:45:37.759 threatening Title nine. 0:45:38.000 --> 0:45:38.200 Yeah. 0:45:39.120 --> 0:45:40.480 Yeah, it's very concerning. 0:45:41.239 --> 0:45:44.480 So the fact that they were able to like at 0:45:44.600 --> 0:45:46.560 least at this point when this case in the Streame 0:45:46.600 --> 0:45:48.080 court extremely worrying. 0:45:48.920 --> 0:45:49.160 Yeah. 0:45:50.200 --> 0:45:52.920 I will just say that if this impacts you someone 0:45:53.000 --> 0:45:56.160 you care about, so when you know, you can reach 0:45:56.200 --> 0:45:58.880 out to us. Obviously that's the third little we can 0:45:58.920 --> 0:46:02.160 do about it. But we are here to listen to 0:46:02.320 --> 0:46:05.239 report the news, and you can do that at cool 0:46:05.360 --> 0:46:10.720 Zone tips at proton dot me. It's only an encrypted 0:46:10.840 --> 0:46:13.120 email and to end, if it comes from an encrypted 0:46:13.200 --> 0:46:15.920 email address to our encrypted email address. 0:46:16.360 --> 0:46:17.799 We are reading all of those. 0:46:17.920 --> 0:46:19.600 We may not respond to all of them, but we 0:46:19.680 --> 0:46:22.720 are taking note of them and we'll report on stuff 0:46:22.760 --> 0:46:25.880 in the future. The last thing I do want to 0:46:26.080 --> 0:46:30.520 add is like a raid that happened last week in California. 0:46:31.400 --> 0:46:34.920 Homeland Security Investigations ICE and Secret Service right at the 0:46:34.960 --> 0:46:37.839 house in southern California looking for a man who months 0:46:37.880 --> 0:46:42.840 ago posted flyers around Los Angeles last January warning about 0:46:43.000 --> 0:46:46.760 ICE agents in the area with names, photos, and phone 0:46:46.840 --> 0:46:50.320 numbers reading in Spanish. Quote careful with these faces. 0:46:50.680 --> 0:46:52.560 Quote. The Feds served a. 0:46:52.680 --> 0:46:55.680 Criminal search warrant on the home of this guy's parents, 0:46:56.000 --> 0:46:59.239 even though he moved to New York last March. At 0:46:59.320 --> 0:47:02.560 least fifty teen armored vehicles pulled up to this upscale 0:47:02.560 --> 0:47:07.440 neighborhood with full militarized federal swat. They seized routers and 0:47:07.640 --> 0:47:08.320 hard drives. 0:47:08.640 --> 0:47:10.680 Yeah, that's no great acting. 0:47:10.719 --> 0:47:12.720 As Director Todd Luins was on the scene for this operation. 0:47:12.880 --> 0:47:15.120 He told Fox News that he took it personally that 0:47:15.280 --> 0:47:17.600 someone would put a target on his agents in an 0:47:17.600 --> 0:47:19.799 effort to interfere with them and put them at risk, 0:47:20.280 --> 0:47:24.000 saying the person will be held accountable. What they're using 0:47:24.040 --> 0:47:27.600 here is probably likely US Code one nineteen Protection of 0:47:27.640 --> 0:47:32.920 Individuals performing certain duties. Whoever knowingly makes restricted personal information 0:47:33.000 --> 0:47:36.160 about a covered person or a member of the immediate 0:47:36.200 --> 0:47:38.640 family of that covered person publicly available with the intent 0:47:38.680 --> 0:47:41.319 to threaten, intimidate, or incite the commission of a crime 0:47:41.400 --> 0:47:44.200 of violence against that covered person or a member of 0:47:44.320 --> 0:47:48.120 the immediate family. So this is likely what they're using. 0:47:48.320 --> 0:47:51.800 Arguing that posting a photo on a flyer with the 0:47:51.840 --> 0:47:56.360 person's name and phone number is enough to threaten, intimidate, 0:47:56.480 --> 0:47:58.080 or facilitate the commission. 0:47:57.680 --> 0:47:58.160 Of a crime. 0:47:58.920 --> 0:48:02.160 Yeah, what comes hut covered persons as it is. That's 0:48:02.200 --> 0:48:05.160 a good question, James. Uh, that's a screenshot, right, so 0:48:05.239 --> 0:48:05.880 you can't click that. 0:48:06.160 --> 0:48:09.400 That is a screenshot and probably a question for a lawyer. 0:48:10.080 --> 0:48:12.560 But they are they are arguing that that the ICE 0:48:12.640 --> 0:48:14.840 agents like fall under this purview. 0:48:15.239 --> 0:48:19.720 Yes, the term covered person means a an individual designated 0:48:19.760 --> 0:48:22.640 to Session one fourteen B, a grand dura, petty jura 0:48:22.760 --> 0:48:26.600 witness or rather officer of the court, an informal witness 0:48:26.640 --> 0:48:30.080 in a federal criminal investigation or prosecution, state or local 0:48:30.160 --> 0:48:33.920 officer or employee whose restricted personal information is made publicly 0:48:33.960 --> 0:48:36.800 available because of the participation in or assistant provided to 0:48:36.880 --> 0:48:39.680 a federal criminal investigation. So it's part C. 0:48:40.120 --> 0:48:43.040 Yeah, so that's that's what they're going to argue. The 0:48:43.120 --> 0:48:45.759 people's addresses weren't posted here. It was just their names 0:48:45.800 --> 0:48:49.160 and photos. But ICE and HSI are being very protective 0:48:49.680 --> 0:48:52.920 of the faces of the agents doing immigration raids and 0:48:52.960 --> 0:48:56.920 student crackdowns right now. They're they're really nervous about about 0:48:57.160 --> 0:49:00.640 agents possibly being targeted. So any attempt to identify these 0:49:00.680 --> 0:49:03.520 as being treated as like a threat. A Homeland Security 0:49:03.520 --> 0:49:07.600 spokesperson told Fox News quote, these pathetic activists are putting 0:49:07.680 --> 0:49:09.880 targets on the backs of our law enforcement as they 0:49:09.920 --> 0:49:13.680 shield Ms thirteen, Trendilagua and other vicious gangs at traffic, 0:49:13.760 --> 0:49:16.320 women and children kidnapped for ransom, and poison Americans with 0:49:16.440 --> 0:49:20.160 lethal drugs. These individuals will be held accountable for obstructing 0:49:20.239 --> 0:49:21.640 the law and justice. 0:49:21.800 --> 0:49:23.480 This shouldn't be controversial. 0:49:25.239 --> 0:49:25.439 Yeah. 0:49:27.120 --> 0:49:32.560 So five people died after a panga carrying migrants capsized 0:49:32.600 --> 0:49:35.040 off Del Mar, which is in North County, San Diego. 0:49:35.840 --> 0:49:39.360 The search is on going. I believe another five are 0:49:39.440 --> 0:49:42.040 still missing. One of those is a ten year old 0:49:42.440 --> 0:49:46.839 girl from India, and Christie Nohan has said she wants 0:49:46.880 --> 0:49:51.759 the DOJ to pursue death penalty charges against the smugglers 0:49:51.760 --> 0:49:55.080 who brought these people over. These boats have been a 0:49:55.200 --> 0:49:58.399 thing for a while, but this is not the first 0:49:58.440 --> 0:50:01.839 of these tragedies. And it's obviously like we shouldn't lose 0:50:02.320 --> 0:50:05.640 focus of the fact that someone's little child died, which 0:50:05.719 --> 0:50:06.280 is horrific. 0:50:06.719 --> 0:50:12.359 Yeah, Yeah, tough news week as usual. I guess tough 0:50:12.440 --> 0:50:13.200 news week. 0:50:14.080 --> 0:50:15.960 The only way to feel better is by fighting. 0:50:17.080 --> 0:50:21.120 But we did report the news we did, we reported 0:50:21.120 --> 0:50:21.479 the news. 0:50:29.920 --> 0:50:32.400 It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 0:50:32.600 --> 0:50:35.640 For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 0:50:35.760 --> 0:50:39.279 coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 0:50:39.400 --> 0:50:41.319 Apple Podcasts, or wherever. 0:50:41.120 --> 0:50:42.200 You listen to podcasts. 0:50:42.719 --> 0:50:44.600 You can now find sources for it could Happen here 0:50:44.680 --> 0:50:47.640 listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.