1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Welcome in everyone to Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: your bets. 3 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 2: It is me Joey P joe P Zapia and this 4 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,239 Speaker 2: is BP NFL. We had a bye week for the 5 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:11,639 Speaker 2: holidays on this show. Last time you saw us was 6 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 2: Week twelve, but we are back here for week fourteen 7 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: and to help look at the props, the Welsh, the Undertaker, 8 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 2: Andrew Erickson, and we're joining you on our YouTube channel. 9 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. 10 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: We love having you all here. And of course, don't 11 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: forget download the Betting Pros apps. Think your sportsbooks for free. 12 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: Don't be a tool, use the tools. 13 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: It is a great time of year for wagering, especially 14 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 2: for those of you who didn't make your fantasy playoffs 15 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 2: and then looking on the outside and saying why I 16 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 2: want some more action, what's going on? Well, this is 17 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: a perfect opportunity to get that by hanging out. 18 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: With us on the Betting pro side of things. So 19 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: we love you. Come on over, big hugs. 20 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 2: It's a warm holiday feel fest over here, and of 21 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: course we got a lot of big games to get 22 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 2: to and a lot of props to break down in Welsh, 23 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: I want to start with a game that's my upset special. 24 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: Of the week. 25 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: The Indianapolis Colts never seemed to win in Jacksonville. What 26 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: does that mean for Trevor Lawrence's prop market. 27 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 3: Well, when you see that secondary with the Colts and 28 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 3: you look at what Trevor Lawrence has been doing with 29 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 3: the Jags, we are going to meet in the middle 30 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,119 Speaker 3: at the passing yards. Passing yards for Trevor Lawrence over 31 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 3: to twenty point five. Lawrence has hit this marker in 32 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 3: two of his last three games. The Colts have given 33 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 3: this up in two of their last three games, and 34 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 3: in fact, they've actually given this up two quarterbacks this 35 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 3: number in seven of their last nine games. PFF had 36 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 3: an interesting stat Lawrence ranking tenth in the NFL in 37 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 3: their PFF pass grade against man coverage. Colts run man 38 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: coverage eighth most of all of their defensive snaps. So 39 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 3: this is a really good opportunity for Lawrence just in general. 40 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 3: Projections across PFF and Fantasy Pros both support this. Fantasy 41 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 3: Pros projections also at the highest number of two forty two. 42 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 3: We know he's going to sling the ball. He's got 43 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: some of his new weapons. They don't have sauce. If 44 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 3: this is going to be a competitive game for the Jags, 45 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 3: it's not going to be one on the ground, it's 46 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 3: going to be one in the air. So I love 47 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 3: this passing yard marker. This is the first prop I 48 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 3: locked in this week. Trevor Lawrence to twenty point five 49 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: overpassing yards. 50 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Erickson. 51 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: The Rams last week certainly had a rough go of it, 52 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 2: losing to the Carolina Panthers, so it would suggest that 53 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 2: this week they kind of take out their frustrations on 54 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: the Arizona Cardinals. Now there's also been news about Kyen 55 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 2: Williams maybe being rested a little bit here and manage 56 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 2: a little bit, because obviously the Super Bowl is all 57 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 2: that matters for the Rams this season. With Matthew Stafford's 58 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: back being what it was. Remember guys, going to the 59 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: season when Matthew Stafford his back is so bad he's 60 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: never going to play. 61 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 1: Now he might be MVP. Remember that it seems like 62 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: years ago. Well those are the good old days. Anyway. 63 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 2: What is Kyen williams attempt's total look like for you 64 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 2: this week? Is it an over or under undertaker? 65 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 4: I'm slamming the under on Kyen Williams fifteen and a 66 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 4: half carries, I think that this number is significantly way 67 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 4: too high. We're starting to see Kyron Williams rotate snaps 68 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 4: and drives with Blake Korm. And it wasn't just last 69 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 4: week when Karen Williams injured his ankle, which he's still 70 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 4: dealing with heading into this matchup against Arizona Cardinals, but 71 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 4: it's been overly the last month that Seam likes to 72 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 4: rotate his two running backs. Both of them have been 73 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 4: really effective on the ground this season, and it's a 74 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 4: good matchup for them against Arizona Cardinals. But given that 75 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 4: Karen Williams has hit the over sixteen carries one time 76 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 4: in his last nine games played, I think that fifteen 77 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 4: and a half carries is way too high a number 78 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 4: for a guy that's dealing with an acle injury and 79 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 4: is going to be rotating drives with Blake Korm. So 80 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 4: to me, this is the lack of the week under 81 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 4: Cairen Williams fifteen and a half carries all right? 82 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 2: Next one here a big game for the Buffalo Bills 83 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: as they try to stay relevant in the AFC East 84 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: and fight for the Patriots at that one spot right now. 85 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 2: But the Buffalo Bills have the Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals 86 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: coming into town. I've already said in my favorite bet 87 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: of the week is the over in this game. I 88 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 2: don't care what you said or that it's going over. 89 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 2: What does that mean for Chase Brown? Props in particular Welsh. 90 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 3: Well, I was able to go and do this, by 91 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: the way, via betting pros as always going and shopping 92 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: the lines and find the absolute best number on betting pros, 93 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 3: and it helped us out even more because Chase Brown's 94 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: receiving yards. They're my target, and I was able to 95 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 3: even get a line under where I usually like to 96 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: bet as well, eighteen point five on Chase yards receiving yards. 97 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 3: To your credit, if you're talking about this game being 98 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: a big offensive powerhouse and it's going to be playing overs, 99 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 3: Chase Brown on the receiving side is going to be involved. 100 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 3: He has hit this receiving yard marker in five straight games. 101 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 3: He has had thirty three targets whether it's Flacko or 102 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 3: Burrow in his last four games, and he has caught 103 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 3: six or more passes in three straight games. Bills have 104 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 3: given up an average of thirty three yards receiving to 105 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: running backs and have given up this prop this receiving 106 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: yard prop to running backs in six of their last 107 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 3: seven games. The projections both on PFF and Fantasy Pros 108 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 3: are in sync. This is around twenty five, So there's 109 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: a really good cushion. You might see this number around 110 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 3: like nineteen point five. Eighteen point five is the best 111 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 3: that I found. Go to betting pros shop the lines, 112 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 3: get the best number, and you can do that with 113 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 3: Chase Brown's receiving. 114 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 2: Yards, right, Andrew Rickson, You're in on Chase Brown. I'm 115 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 2: on Chase Brown this week as well. What's your take? 116 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 4: Will you take all of the analysis that Well just 117 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 4: laid out with the receiving and I'm going to add 118 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 4: the rushing component to this. So I'm gonna go his 119 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: yards from scrimmage, rushing and receiving yards over seventy five 120 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 4: and a half six straight games, one hundred plus yards 121 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 4: from scrimmage. So that's giving us a twenty five yard 122 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 4: buffer for what he's already been doing over the last 123 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 4: six weeks. Regardless of whoever the quarterback is, Chase Brown 124 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 4: has been absolutely cooking. The Bills have been one of 125 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 4: the worst run defenses in the NFL this season, allowing 126 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 4: over one hundred and thirty yards per game, deposing running 127 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 4: backs the fourth most rushing yards. And this way, it 128 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 4: doesn't matter what the game script is, whether the Bengals 129 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 4: are winning, whether they're losing, Chase Brown is going to 130 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 4: be involved in all facets and he's going to be 131 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 4: able to rip off explosive plays against the Bills defense 132 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 4: that looks like Joey Bosa is not going to play. 133 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 4: Tre Bnard is not going to play. So again, we're 134 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 4: gonna see a ton of points in this game. The 135 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 4: superstars are going to show up on the opfitsive side 136 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 4: of the ball, and that includes Chase Brown, who will 137 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 4: go for over one hundred yards from scrimmage in his 138 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 4: seventh straight game. 139 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 2: I'm just betting the rushing yard total over so we 140 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: basically it's anything Chase Brown. So there you have it, everybody, 141 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 2: it's just to Chase Brown day all the way around. 142 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 2: Maybe put all three of them together and if he 143 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 2: has a big day, you're just gonna make massive amounts 144 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 2: of money. 145 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 5: There. 146 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: There's your SGP there. You can also take my guy 147 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 2: later to score a touchdown. I'll go to talk about too. 148 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 2: You can put that in when somebody's Chase Brown totals 149 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 2: little SGP action and of course we want you to 150 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 2: place that SGP where at hard Rock Bet are sponsors. 151 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 2: So go to hard Rock Bet right now download the 152 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: sportsbook app for hard Rock Bet. 153 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: It's now live in Michigan. Yeah, buddy, let's go. 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Concerned 185 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 3: about gambling called one eight hundred gambler? 186 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: All right? 187 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 2: Next up here we got pick number three. You know 188 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 2: everyone wants to take shots at bo Nicks from fantasy. 189 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: He always shows up and puts up points. 190 00:07:58,440 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: Is it pretty? 191 00:07:59,120 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 5: No? 192 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 1: Is it think consistent? Yes? 193 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 2: Yes, oftentimes inconsistent, but it's got a match up against 194 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 2: the Las Vegas Raiders this week. So what does that 195 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 2: mean in terms of that soft matchup for bo Nix's 196 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: prop market. 197 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 3: Well, something you know I'm always trying to pay attention 198 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 3: to is what he's doing with his legs and what 199 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: the rushing yards are looking like. And this week it 200 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 3: really looks primed that we are going to hit that 201 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 3: rushing yard prop a fifteen point five over Nicks is 202 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: averaging on the season run nineteen yards per game rushing. 203 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 3: He's now, this is a weird one. He's hit this 204 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 3: only once in his last three games, which includes the Raiders. 205 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 3: But I love this stat that's attached to it. This 206 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 3: is from Tom Strack and our dear friend Tom Strack 207 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 3: and put this out and it was Bonix versus zone coverages. 208 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 3: So most of this is going to be built around 209 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 3: how bad bo Nicks is going to look versus own coverage. 210 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 3: Thirty second quarterback rating among quarterbacks with fifty plus attempts, 211 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 3: he's thirty seventh inn yards per attempt a seven to 212 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 3: six touchdown to interception ratio. Then here's the last stat 213 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 3: that really got seventh in scramble rate with over one 214 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 3: hundred and fifty seven yards versus zone he's going to run. 215 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 3: So we go back and I just found another just 216 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 3: real weird random stat. By the way, I think it 217 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 3: was the kinsas City Chiefs and the Raiders were the 218 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 3: two that he had not hit when he'd only hit 219 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 3: one in the last three. But this is just a 220 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 3: weird stat. Bo Nicks has hit this rushing yard prop 221 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 3: in every single road game he has played this year. 222 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: So when he's on the road, he's a running. It's 223 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 3: a bad defensive coverage where he is going to be 224 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 3: taking the ball down and he's going to be chugging. 225 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 3: The projections all support this, maybe not by like, you know, 226 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 3: crazy insane big numbers, it's like seventeen and twenty, but 227 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 3: everybody's with this. We're hitting this prop. He's on the road. 228 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 3: Bonnicks rushing yards fifteen point five over. 229 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: Also on the. 230 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: Road this week to a tongue of Iaaloa as the 231 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 2: Dolphins take on the Jets. It's gonna be a little chilly, 232 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 2: and sometimes Tua is not a big fan of the cold. 233 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 2: Andrew Erickson, how can we take advantage of that fact? 234 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: This weekend? 235 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 4: To a ton of Iola is going to throw an 236 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 4: interception this week it's going to be the Jets' first 237 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 4: interception on defense all season long, and you can get 238 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 4: this at plus money. So this is one of the 239 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 4: reasons why I really like the Jets on the money 240 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 4: line this week, because I think that you're gonna see 241 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 4: Tua turn the ball over here. He's gonna turn back 242 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,719 Speaker 4: to to to turn the ball over here playing in 243 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 4: MetLife Stadium. The last two matchups he's played at MetLife 244 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 4: against the New York Jets, he's totaled three interceptions, and 245 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 4: again talking about the best Bets show, something that I 246 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 4: mentioned was Tua has been really, really bad against own 247 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 4: coverage this year. He has thrown all fourteen of his interceptions. Again, 248 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 4: he's thrown fourteen interceptions this year. We haven't played fourteen 249 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 4: games yet, folks. So the Dolphins quarterback has turned the 250 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 4: ball over a lot this season, but against man coverage 251 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 4: he's been much better. The Jets, for the most part, 252 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 4: have played heavily in man coverage this year, but that's 253 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 4: because a lot of that goes to them having Sauce 254 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,839 Speaker 4: Garter as part of that defense, and over the last 255 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 4: couple of games we've seen them kind of throw a 256 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 4: couple of change ups where they've played a little bit 257 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 4: more zone coverage. Week eleven, it was just nineteen percent 258 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 4: man coverage twenty four percent in week time twelve. So 259 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: I'm kind of doing some forecasting here, getting into the 260 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 4: mind of Aaron Glen again. If he looks at how 261 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 4: toa plays and how he turns them all over, it's okay, 262 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 4: let's limit our man coverage. Let's play zone and make 263 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 4: Tua make mistakes against our defense. I think that that's 264 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 4: going to work this week. So for me two is 265 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 4: going to throw a pick, it's at plus money. If 266 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 4: you look at what he's done from December on, he 267 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 4: has twenty eight passing touchdowns to twenty one interceptions. The 268 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 4: last time he played outdoors in December, the Dolphins lost 269 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 4: fifty six to nineteen and he threw two interceptions. That 270 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,319 Speaker 4: the lost of the Kansasy Chiefs twenty six to seven. 271 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 4: He has threw another pick in that game. I mean, look, 272 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 4: I can't guarantee the Jets are going to win this game, 273 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 4: even though that's what I think. But I feel pretty 274 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 4: strongly about too at least throwing one pick here, because 275 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 4: the Jets they're due, they are so due for him 276 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 4: throw pick. 277 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 3: I would also like to say you are not doing 278 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 3: what we talked about off air, where we may potentially 279 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 3: be looking at laddering this. If you want to go 280 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 3: two interceptions on Tua, it's almost six to one for 281 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 3: him to throw two interceptions and you just happen to 282 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 3: have thrown out that two interception number. Just saying, just saying, 283 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 3: just saying. 284 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 2: For more props, if you want help to you want 285 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 2: to find the best values, the best lines, shop them 286 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 2: right over here at the betting pros app and look 287 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 2: at the prop bet cheat sheet bettingpros dot. 288 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: Com slash props. That's the place to go. 289 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 4: There. 290 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 2: You get all the passing, rushing, receiving stack categories, the 291 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 2: fantasy projections, the difference between the two, and then the 292 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 2: best line to bet it. So again literally handing you 293 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 2: the cheat sheet for the test. So make sure you're 294 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 2: going to pass the test this week in the NFL. 295 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: Next one, here, we've got the Chicago Bears going to 296 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 2: Green Bay. Whilsh you've got some love for Coaston Loveland 297 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 2: this week. 298 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 4: Hm. 299 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,559 Speaker 3: We are on the Loveland train, and I believe have 300 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 3: found the best number over at our dear friends over 301 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 3: at hard Rock Receiving yard total thirty two point five. 302 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: Oh yes, we're going with the over. Though Loveland did 303 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 3: not hit this last last week, he has gone over 304 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 3: this receiving yard total in five of his last six games. 305 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 3: Loveland has also had five or more receptions in two 306 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 3: of his last three game, so he has been involved 307 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 3: in this offense. Packers defensive grade a little bit suboptimal 308 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 3: against tight ends. Safety's grade out run according to PFF 309 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 3: nineteen of thirty two linebackers twenty one of thirty two. 310 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,239 Speaker 3: So there you go. That's kind of like that suboptimal 311 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 3: overall grading against tight ends. Packers are on average giving 312 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 3: up over seven targets a game to tight ends. That 313 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 3: average comes out to around five catches for forty three yards. 314 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 3: Loveland has been a big play guy. It's a cold game. 315 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 3: They got injuries on the wide receivers. Loveland's going to 316 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 3: get involved. This is an easy big play. He's been 317 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 3: making big plays as well. This might be done in 318 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 3: maybe one catch, but we've seen lots of targets to 319 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 3: tight ends. Loveland has been heavily involved. He's going to 320 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 3: get involved in this one, and we're going to hit this. 321 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 3: Receiving yard total thirty two point five over. 322 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 2: All, Right, let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons, who lost 323 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 2: last week and now they're moving on to a home 324 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 2: game against the Seattle Seahawks. So let's talk about them. 325 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 2: Andrew Erickson and Kirk Cousins. What could we see out 326 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 2: of him this week? 327 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 4: A lot of handoffs to the running backs for the 328 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 4: Atlanta Falcons. That's what I'm expecting to see here. This 329 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 4: is a five star bet on the prop. Betch he 330 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 4: cheat this week. Kirk Cousins under thirty three and a 331 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 4: half pass attempts. He doesn't have thirty four pass attemps 332 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 4: in any game this season. Now, he's only started a 333 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,079 Speaker 4: handful of games, but it's been pretty clear what the 334 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 4: Falcons are wanting to do when Kirk Cousins is under 335 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 4: center is a hide him. Don't have him drop back 336 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 4: to throw the ball and hand the ball off to 337 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 4: the running backs. Weeks twelve through thirteen, pass break over 338 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 4: expectation for the Falcons negative ten percent. In his other 339 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 4: start in week eight, it was negative thirteen percent. Still 340 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 4: not sure if Drake Lunnon is going to play in 341 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 4: this matchup, so again that goes back to we want 342 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 4: to establish the run, hide Kirk Cousins again against a 343 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 4: very fierce Seattle Seahawks defense and pass rush. I think 344 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 4: that this is simple what the Falcons are trying to 345 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 4: do here, and that's try to run the football. So 346 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 4: giving me under thirty three and a half pass stemps. 347 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: All right, Welsh. 348 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 2: Last week we saw a breakout game from eighty Mitchell 349 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 2: and the Jets. Previous two games he had been targeted 350 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 2: a lot, but really nothing came of it. So this 351 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 2: week the numbers forty seven and a half quite a 352 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 2: bump here. It's never a matter of targets. He's getting targets, 353 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 2: it's catching the ball, catching the tar targets that have 354 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 2: been the challenge for ed Ni Mitchell in the past. 355 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 2: So what happens this week we're going over or under 356 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 2: that forty seven and a half. 357 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 3: We're going to play the over. It's all the is 358 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 3: it the over for this week? And Ady Mitchell that's 359 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 3: my guy. And the unfortunate thing the one problem to have, 360 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: of course, when you're a wide receiver is to have 361 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 3: the hands. Because he's got everything else. He's got breakaway speed, 362 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 3: an incredible route runner, just separation, he's got all of that. 363 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 3: It just has been the hands. But it clicked this 364 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 3: past week over and I've said this a couple different 365 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 3: shows for the last week or two, but this counting 366 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 3: twelve and thirteen three hundred and fifty nine air yards 367 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 3: to add Ni Mitchell, that is the most by any 368 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 3: wide receiver in the NFL over the last two games. 369 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 3: That is the most by eighty yards to the next player, 370 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 3: which was Ceedee Lamb before this weekend. It averages over 371 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 3: the last two weeks thirty one point one percent target 372 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 3: percentage for Edni Mitchell, forty two point five percent first 373 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 3: read and he's averaged nine point five targets per game. 374 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: I love it. 375 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 3: He is the guy. Tarad Taylor absolutely loves getting him 376 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 3: the ball. We look at the Dolphins. They have given 377 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: this up to opposing wide receivers in four straight games. 378 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 3: Grading out is a little bit tougher. Some of the 379 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 3: grades don't love this. But what I do is that 380 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 3: Adanai Mitchell is going to get a massive amount of 381 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 3: target share. He does have to actually catch the ball, 382 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 3: but he is the first read guy. He's the deep 383 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: play guy. Jokingly we say that about Lovelan, like, oh, 384 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 3: you could do it in one catch. Adam Mitchell legitimately 385 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 3: can do it in one catch. You can also fumble 386 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 3: right after, but he can do it in one catch. 387 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 3: So I love this. I think he has proven to 388 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 3: be the guy at least that they're putting their trust 389 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 3: in and projections all over the board. But I thought 390 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: it was interesting BFS put this at over fifty fifty 391 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 3: six was actually the numbers. So I'm jumping headfirst into 392 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 3: the at Di Mitchell waters. We have suggested that people 393 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,359 Speaker 3: go pick him up in waivers this week. We're suggesting 394 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 3: that he's a wide receiver three, so let's suggest that 395 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: he can crack fifty and actually live up to that 396 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 3: fantasy outcome. So ad Ni Mitchell is my last prop. 397 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 2: All right, your last prop, Andrew, has to do with 398 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: Brenton Strange of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, last week four targets, 399 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 2: got three of them, forty five and a touchdown. Is 400 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: this a pivot now to a different set of circumstances, like, 401 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 2: you know, the BTJ stuff wasn't working this year, and 402 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: yeah we had the Travis Hunter injury. Is this something 403 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: that sustainable in Week fourteen against the Colts. 404 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 4: One hundred percent? Because the Colts have been absolutely eviscerated 405 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 4: by tight ends this year. You look at the ECR 406 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 4: rankings on Fantasy spros where bretton Strange is ranked. He's 407 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 4: not top ten, he's not top eight, he's not top seven. 408 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 4: He's like top five for tight ends this week. Now, 409 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 4: obviously George Kittle's not playing, which puts up other guys 410 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 4: up the board, but he's in an absolute smash spot 411 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 4: this week. And what I really like about him in 412 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 4: this particular matchup, you look at where he's been targeted 413 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 4: the most twenty three percent target rate perroute running in 414 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 4: zone coverage this season. That's the highest rate among non 415 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 4: backfield Jaguars pass catchers. That's according to Next Gen Stats, 416 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 4: three hundred and fifteen of his three hundred and forty 417 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 4: two total receiving yards have come against zone coverage this season. 418 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 4: And when I'm looking at the Colts defense, I think 419 00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 4: that waybe we could see them play a little bit 420 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 4: more zone, just because going back to my sauce guard 421 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,199 Speaker 4: er Corolarry, it's when you don't have sauce, you have 422 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 4: to play a little bit more zone because you don't 423 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 4: have guys that are matching up in man de mand situations. 424 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 4: So given Brenton Strange. The matchup against the Colts, they're 425 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 4: playing a little bit more zone. They've been giving it 426 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 4: up to a ton of tight ends this year and 427 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 4: he's been super, super productive. He has forty four plus 428 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 4: yards in all but one of his healthy games played 429 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 4: the season. He left game because of one of an injury. 430 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 4: So I think over forty one and a half receiving yards, 431 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 4: I mean he could get this over in the in 432 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:29,679 Speaker 4: the first half, so I think he has an immense 433 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 4: ceiling this week. And considering that it looks like Walker Little, 434 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 4: the starting left tackle for the Jaguars, might not play 435 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 4: in this game, I think that it's more Trevor Lawrence 436 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,640 Speaker 4: get the ballot quick to your tight end underneath option. 437 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 4: He trusts Strange, so I think he's given a monster game, 438 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 4: So take the over all. 439 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,360 Speaker 2: Right, let's talk touchdowns here, and of course, the touchdown 440 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 2: score report is available at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown. 441 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 1: If you're looking for the edge, we've got it for you. 442 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 2: A touchdown stats to prop bet odds and the projections 443 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 2: help you find the very best in anytime touchdown bets 444 00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: this week in the NFL, So head over and check 445 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: out the touch downscore report at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown. 446 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: That's easy to remember, all right. I'm going with some 447 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 1: simple ones I think this week. But simple as good, 448 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 1: simple as effective. I want to maintain my lead at 449 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: the top of the board here. So Jamar Chase minus 450 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: one fifteen against the Buffalo Bills. 451 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's minus. I don't care. I'd rather put two 452 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 2: units on it and get it. That be wrong on 453 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,439 Speaker 2: a three to one. I will say, though, Andrew Erickson 454 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 2: did have one that I love, so we'll get to 455 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 2: his in just a moment. And my other one is 456 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 2: Kyle Manong guy, who has been on a bit of 457 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 2: a touchdown streak. Everybody always negates the Bears, dismisses the Bears, 458 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 2: and every week they either cover or win outright, and 459 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 2: who knows, maybe they can do it again in Green Bay. 460 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: But Kyle Manan guy, you're getting two to one plus 461 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 2: two ten on that number for Kyle Manan guy. 462 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 1: Eric, So we'll start with you. 463 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 2: You've got two touchdowns here, one in that Jets Miami 464 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 2: game and another one as I afore mentioned earlier. Kind 465 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 2: of full circle moment for you with your Kyrine Williams 466 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:54,640 Speaker 2: pick coming back around here. 467 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: Yeah. 468 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 4: So first one is Darren Waller anytime touchdown plus two sixty. 469 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 4: Not really correlated with kind of two of this week, 470 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 4: but I do think that the Jets have been really 471 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 4: bad against tight ends this season. They're actually thirty first 472 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 4: in DVA thirty second is the Cincinnati Bengals, so the 473 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 4: Jets are in that Bengals territory four tight ends, and 474 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 4: we've already seen this matchup play up before. Earlier in 475 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 4: the year Waller faced the Jets. He didn't have one touchdown, 476 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 4: he had two touties. So Darren Waller, that's all he's 477 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 4: really good for at this point is just being this 478 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 4: big body in the red zone. So if the Dolphins score, 479 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 4: I think that Waller can find paydirt. So I love 480 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 4: him at plus two to sixty. And the other one 481 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 4: is Blake Korm, the secondary back in the Rams backfield. 482 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 4: But really it's more of a one A one B situation. 483 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 4: If Korm is cooking on the drives that he has 484 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 4: the football, well, he's gonna get chances to score. So 485 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 4: I think at nearly three to one plus two to 486 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 4: ninety these are way too long odds against the Arizona 487 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 4: Cardinals bottom ten run defense. They've allowed five shit running 488 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 4: back rushing overs and Korm has seventeen red zone opportunities 489 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 4: this season. 490 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: He but it only has two touchdowns. 491 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 4: Every other player with at least thirteen red zone opportunities 492 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 4: has scored at least three touchdowns. Regression is due for 493 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,159 Speaker 4: Blake Korm in this matchup, especially if Kyri Williams continued 494 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 4: to nurse this ankle injury. I think he's going to 495 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 4: get a red zone carre. He's just got to punch 496 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 4: it in. I know sometimes Korm has been stuffed at 497 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 4: the goal line, which has been kind of frustrating, but 498 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,159 Speaker 4: he's going to get his opportunities here and I think 499 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 4: he's going to find the end zone. So like Korm 500 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 4: plus two nine again, I'm gonna be some pretty long 501 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,239 Speaker 4: odds this week, but I feel pretty good about both 502 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 4: of them. 503 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 2: All right, Welsh, what do you feel pretty good about 504 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 2: when it comes to touchdowns? 505 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: In Week fourteen? 506 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 3: I'm playing even longer odds on this one. Both of 507 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 3: mine are more than three to one, and we're going 508 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 3: in in the tight end market and I'm going to 509 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 3: attach one to my guy, and then I'm going to 510 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 3: go with one to Ericson's on both of these tight ends. 511 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 3: So the longest odds of any of these is Colson 512 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 3: Lovelin at plus three point eighty right now. And as 513 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 3: I mentioned, Packers giving up almost six receptions per game. 514 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 3: They're banged up on the wide receiver front. They're going 515 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 3: to win this game, They're going to have to do 516 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 3: it without just a Roma Dunes, who really hasn't been 517 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 3: doing a whole bunch. Obviously, if they get into short yardage, 518 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 3: I think a guy like Kylmanan guy DeAndre Swift comes 519 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 3: into play. But if you're playing from anywhere outside of 520 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 3: the ten, I think Colson Lovelan in play as everything 521 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 3: I mentioned before, So I like him at plus three eighty. 522 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna go with Erickson's guy and Brittain Strange. 523 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 3: I really like this one. Colts are giving up over 524 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 3: seventy two yards to tight ends per game, almost seven receptions, 525 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 3: and they've given up five touchdowns to tight ends on 526 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 3: the air. Cults are grading out thirty of thirty two 527 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,719 Speaker 3: in defensive grade against tight ends so far this year. 528 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 3: So I love Trevor Lawrence. I think Stranger is in 529 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 3: a really good spot. Get him in the red zone. 530 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 3: He's gonna score. I got that one locked in at 531 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,959 Speaker 3: plus three twenty, so a little bit longer odds, but 532 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 3: kind of like ericson. I just like both of these 533 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 3: plays this week. 534 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 2: Remember you can tell us over at Betting Pros too. 535 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 2: When you download the app, just search our names. You 536 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 2: can see what we're in on this week. In week 537 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: fourteen and check out the Betting pro systems and track 538 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 2: your own betsus. You know what's going well for you 539 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 2: and what's not going well so you can maximize your profits. 540 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 2: That's what's all about, all right, everybody, make sure you 541 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel that'll do it for us. But 542 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 2: the story of the game goes on for the Welsh 543 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 2: and Andrew Erickson. 544 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. 545 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 546 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 547 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 548 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 549 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. 550 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our 551 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 5: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros