1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Villain 5 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: Bouncer joint to us here in New York City, specially 6 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: Economic ad Fighter formerly of the NPC at the Bank 7 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: of England and Money to Villiam. Good morning. We've had 8 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,919 Speaker 1: three growth scares in the last ten years, fifteen sixteen 9 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: and now eighteen nineteen. Each and everyone driven by manufacturing, 10 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: led by manufacturing, and the previous two didn't bleed into 11 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: services in a big way. It was a head fake. 12 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: We got out. Okay, is this any different? Well, I'm 13 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: getting increasingly concerned that in Europe euro areas, actually it 14 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: may be something different that we will get because of 15 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: the extreme weakness of manufacturing. Data and sort of supplementary 16 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: information about global trade coming from Korea that confirms this 17 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 1: weakness as being more, i think than just manufacturing slow down. 18 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: And I'm afraid this looks like it could really rub 19 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: every part of the economy in the wrong way. For 20 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: anyone tuning in this morning that hasn't seen the data yet. 21 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,119 Speaker 1: Exports out of South Korea down almost the data in Germany, 22 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: the p m I coming in at forty one point four, 23 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: there was a hope that we'd see her pick up 24 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: their villain. Let's talk about the policy response. The e 25 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: CP has thrown everything at it. Is that gonna work. No, 26 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: it's not going to be enough. Central banks in the policity. 27 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: The ECB with a polity ated miners sixty beats are 28 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: effectively pushing on a string, maybe a nice string to 29 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: push on, but it really will not boost activity where 30 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: it needs to be boosted. Only fiscal policy can do that, Professor. 31 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: But I want to get out in front of our 32 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: conversation with William Dudley this morning, and I want to 33 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: give it in a sixty thousand foot view way over 34 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: the topics at hand, negative interest rates, what that does 35 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: to savers and what it does to the incentives in Europe, 36 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: the low rates, the fiscal and financial repression. Rather in 37 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: the United States, have we thought too hard for fourteen years? 38 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: Have we boxed ourselves in to a set of economics 39 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: where we thought, you know, maybe this works, but to 40 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: a lot of people. It's not It may not be 41 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: working for a lot of people, but it doesn't mean 42 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: there's a lot you can do about it. The fact 43 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: that indust rates are negative now for seventeen chillion worth 44 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: of debt outstanding is a larger reflection of a very 45 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: low in the negative neutral global real interest rate, and 46 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: central banks sort of tinker that fundamental reality which is 47 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: driven by demographics, by lack of embodied technical change, and 48 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: by other real economy factors. So central banks are not 49 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: in some sense causing I didn't say they're causing it, 50 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: but they have to deal with this new lower phenomenal GDP. 51 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: You mentioned demographics and such. Do we need to clear 52 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:31,519 Speaker 1: out the zombie companies, the zombie assets and liabilities that 53 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: have that have persisted through this twelve and fourteen years, 54 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: especially in Europe, there has not been a thorough cleaning 55 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: up with the bank balance sheet and it was always 56 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: a good idea to do that. Of course, timing is 57 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: wouldn't be ideal about determined attempt to clean up the 58 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: balance sheets go be part of the solution to this problem. 59 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: This Manchester United qualifiers as an ambie company join for 60 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: not just yet, though some Manchester United fans might fill 61 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: that way. Villam, I just want to run things out 62 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: on the fiscal policy question. There's a lot of people 63 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: on this side of Atlantic look into Europe just saying 64 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: this has got to be inevitable. Now this is the 65 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: only policy tool left. Surely they're going to use it. 66 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: Madame Legard will make the difference as a European looking 67 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 1: at the situation play out all of the experience you have. 68 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: Do you see any chance of this happening in the 69 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: next eighteen months. I do. Actually, it's not going to 70 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: be dramatic. You're not going to see the kind of 71 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: Trump style as an eighteen fiscal stimulus. But we could 72 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: get a percent of GDP worth of fiscal relaxation in 73 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: a selected number of countries, the ones with the most 74 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: fiscal elbow room Germany, Netherlands and all that, and some 75 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: smaller fiscal stimulus in in the rest of the euro 76 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: Area where fiscal challenges are greater. If at the same 77 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: time the ECB continues to engage in quantitative easing, Yeah, 78 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: they're being business for what looks like a mini helicopter 79 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: money drop. He Philliam going to catch you out with 80 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: the conversation to be continued right now. We like to 81 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: migrate sort of to a October kickoff of American politics. 82 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: We can do that with Wendy Shower. She's a Brown University. 83 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: I like what you say, Wendy, in the beginning of 84 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: your note on the brand of populism, What is the 85 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: brand of populism of Iowa front runner Elizabeth Warren. That's 86 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: truly economic populism. I mean it's almost a blueprint from 87 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: the ten eight nineties start of saying the individual working 88 00:05:56,080 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: person deserves detection, deserves to make a decent wage. It's 89 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 1: not sort of this elite tax cut, let's generate jobs 90 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: through corporate America. It's what can we do to the individual. 91 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: And so it's different from the Trump brand. When I 92 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: first met the Senator ages ago, she was a professor 93 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: at Harvard and she was total policy want. I say 94 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: that with all great respect for her public service, and 95 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 1: she's still that way. Is there any evidence of policy 96 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: want you can get elected? Well, I mean we're seeing 97 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: that in the polls now with her right, and we're 98 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: seeing the response literally if you see the response in 99 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: her rallies and look at the way she sort of 100 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: characterized herself. She dresses pretty simply. I mean, you're not 101 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: supposed to pay attention, but everybody does anyway. She's simple 102 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: in her dress, she's simple in her address to people. 103 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: She you know, runs sprints, she takes pictures with everybody. 104 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: She really is trying working very hard to have come 105 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: down from that Ivory Tower mountains and really relate to 106 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: people one on one and that way, even though she's 107 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: policy focused, she's finding a way to relate what she 108 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: wants to do policy wise to have an effect their 109 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: daily lives and the moment that seems to be resonating. 110 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 1: Do you see that with the fourteen flavors of Democrats 111 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: in Iowa? Is she at the margin pulling over a 112 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: new constituency or new constituencies plural? I think she's working 113 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: awfully hard at it. And where she's being I think 114 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: strategically smart is talking about trade, figuring out how that 115 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: effects formers. It's so important formers. However, you have to 116 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: brace yourself for Trump to cut a deal with China 117 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: and get this thing off the table by December. So 118 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: she's not focusing all over time on that because you 119 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: realizes that issue might actually go okay. But those are 120 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: economic issues and we're very familiar with, you know, economics first, 121 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: it's the economy stupid. Except last time around there other 122 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: than depressed GDP, that didn't have much to do with 123 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: the election. It was the battle of Mr Trump versus 124 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: the Secretary of State. And I just wonder do we 125 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: actually get back to policy discussions as we go through 126 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: the conventions in the election or do you see a 127 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: redux of the tenor of the tumbra of two thousand 128 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: six team? Well, tomm, you're pointing out something so vitally important, 129 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: which is that you have to break through a TV 130 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: screen or a video screen or a phone screen, whatever 131 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: it is. You have to have a kind of charisma 132 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: that says I'm gonna fight for you. And that's the 133 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: big question mark. Can she break through on the national 134 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: stage in the general And we're seeing her breakthrough a 135 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: little bit so far, but yeah, there's some question marks. 136 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: Other way you can do that, it will be personality 137 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: versus personality, and she will have to look as tough 138 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: as Trump, and that is always more difficult for a 139 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: wan to do than a man. So it's absolutely right 140 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: question mark. However, she is performing better than anybody thought 141 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 1: she would. What about in the twenty counties that matter. 142 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: Maybe it's thirty, maybe it's ten. I don't know. That's 143 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: not my area of folks. But in the in the 144 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: hyper narrow counties of those five or six key states, 145 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: do they know how to spell W A R R 146 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 1: E N. I mean, is it working well? I think 147 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: for her, she's gonna have to do a tremendous amount 148 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: of recent politics in those areas. You're gonna have to 149 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: get out there and meet and greet people, because that 150 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: seems to be strong as asset Minnesota. You know, Minnesota 151 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 1: could go either way, Republican or Democrat. You know, how 152 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: does she play in Minnesota. That's the kind of thing 153 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: I don't really start thinking about. Now, is this what 154 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton didn't do? I think Clinton had so much 155 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: more more baggage than Warren. Warren has ideological baggage. She 156 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 1: has reputational baggage. For she thinks, however, you can counteract 157 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: that when you meet somebody first you know firsthand, or 158 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: you go to town meetings, their CAUCUSUS and over the 159 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: primary season she can counteract that in some ways. But 160 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 1: whereas Clinton could not shed the baggage because it was 161 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: twenty years worth of baggage. And that's one thing was 162 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: Warren does not have. Whatever baggage she has, is actually 163 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: fighting for consumers. So I don't see her having to 164 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 1: lift that kind of heavy load that Clinton had to lift. 165 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:44,719 Speaker 1: And that's the margin of difference. That would mean, I don't, 166 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: you know, doesn't torpedo her campaign against Trump. It would 167 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: be a tall mountain climb, it would. But I don't 168 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: think he can be labeled the same way Hillary was labeled. 169 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: How do you identify if your folks, if you're just 170 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 1: joining us Wendy Show or Brown University, we diverge here 171 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: on politics on a Monday morning. Future is a negative one, 172 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: Professor Schiller. And this is a phrase. It was used 173 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: disaffected Democrats at the time of the liberal blow up 174 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. How do you identify disaffected Republicans, the 175 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: people that do not support the president? How big are 176 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: they and are they identifiable? It's a great question. I 177 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: don't think there are disaffective Republicans at the moment. I 178 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: think the Republicans that are annoyed, but I don't think 179 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: they are they still going to vote for Donald Trump. Yeah, 180 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 1: I firmly believe that, you know, I do. I don't 181 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: think they're going to cross the aisle to vote for 182 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: our Sanders or Biden or a warrant. The problem is 183 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 1: they may stay home if Biden's a nominee, and they 184 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: can live with Biden, but they don't want to vote 185 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: for a Democrat and may stay I'll sit this one out. 186 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: And if they sit that one out, it becomes and 187 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: that's the advantage Obama had over me, and that's how 188 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: the Democrats can win. But I don't think anyone's crossing 189 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 1: the aisle in this day and age. Explain the dynamics 190 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: of one moderate, which is Biden, among the front runners 191 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 1: of the Democrats. I mean, are there moderates out there 192 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: that can find some masks or we beyond that? No, 193 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: I do think we're beyond that within within the general election. 194 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: Whether we we have it in the Democrat party, it's 195 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: sound clear. But I think there's a lot of fatigue 196 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: with sort of up and down with Trump. I mean, 197 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 1: there's just general fatigue and Biden is sort of a 198 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: calm waters kind of right. This is like the guy 199 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: who will get you there, smooth sailing, no disruption, no uncertainty, 200 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: and there are people who are kind of craving that 201 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: and he's liberal enough. So I think, particularly with men, 202 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: because we white men in the Democrat Party, can Biden 203 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: actually get them out the door, take him away from Sanders. 204 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: That's the only way he wins the nomination. And that's 205 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: what we're looking for right now. Is he resonating with 206 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: that particular group within the party. They tend to be 207 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: more moderate than everybody else in the Democratic Good update, 208 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: Professor Shoulder, Thank you so much, Professor Political Science of 209 00:11:47,520 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: It Brown. We're thrilled that she could join us. Julia 210 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: Cornado joins us right now, before we get into the 211 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: report discussion, Julia, why are the p M S and 212 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: I S M has become so important? Is it because 213 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: the math is better? Well, I think with the market 214 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 1: measure that we're going to get this morning, it's useful because, 215 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 1: as Jonathan mentioned, we get it twice a month. We 216 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: get a preliminary reads and a final read. The other 217 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 1: thing is that it's a consistent UM survey across country, 218 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: so it's comparable from the US to the Eurozone, to Japan, etcetera. 219 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: So it's a it's a useful timely barometer. Do you 220 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: expect to say the same story that we're seeing in Europe, Julia, 221 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: which is weight manufacturing, but perhaps some small signs that 222 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: is showing up in services, well, that would be very 223 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: important for the US. UM. The consensus is expecting a 224 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: little bit of a bounce in the services measure, and 225 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: we've seen service sector resilience in the US so far, 226 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: and that is absolutely essential because we don't expect to 227 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: me manufacturing sector to be snapping back anytime soon. And 228 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: and really the Senate sector has been carrying the entire 229 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: weight of the economy. Julia Cronado with this macro policy advisers. 230 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,599 Speaker 1: One minute ago, the headline comes out and John, I 231 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: guess we get used to this. New York Fed takes 232 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: sixties six billion of treasuries, securities and repo operations. So, Julia, 233 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: they brought in full faith and credit bills, notes and 234 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: bonds as a general statement, and they pushed out cash 235 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: to whom to a variety of people, to banks, and 236 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: through banks, to other financial intermediaries. UM. So it is 237 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: really um the liquifying the entire financial system through these operations, 238 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: including including foreign demand as well. And then on Friday, 239 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: we had the idea that big banks were reticent to 240 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: do something with their cash or their security is and 241 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,839 Speaker 1: the blame goes back to Bossle is that the only 242 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: way we fix this is to deregulate the regulation. Um 243 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: that would be one road you can go down. But 244 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: the sets certainly knew that these regulations have been in place, 245 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: and they made a decision to sort of explore the 246 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: frontier of how much reserves were needed by the system. 247 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: And they found the frontier. So we had a liquidity 248 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: crunch on one of these periodic moments of elevated demand. 249 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: They're going to act, probably movie move to actually increase 250 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: the level of reserves in the system. I think that's 251 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: we found the frontier. So Julia, ultimately does that mean 252 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: expanding the balance sheet again? And when do you expect 253 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: to see that? Well, they've been very clear signaling that 254 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: this will be part of the October communication that we 255 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: get from them, that they will explore these issues make 256 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: a decision by the October meeting. So that's that's what 257 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: I would expect to see. If the former New York 258 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: Fed president built outly running an all had recently and 259 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: Tom and I are really looking forward to catching up 260 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: with him in about an arrant thirty minutes time that 261 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: Plug thought bloomlet c and for Bloomberg Ready, I, Julia, 262 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: excuse that, but he said that you could focus on 263 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: the bills and not further down the curve, and then 264 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: the optics of it will improve. And that's just one 265 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: way of communicating. This is not que What do you 266 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: what do you think of that, Julia focusing on buying 267 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: treasury bills instead of going further down the curve to 268 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: expand the balance sheet and increase reserves. Well, I'm not 269 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: sure that they're going to go that route. When they 270 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: have discussed this at the meetings this year, and they 271 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: have been discussing these issues all year, they've sort of 272 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: tied all of the balance sheet policy together under one 273 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: investment policy, So both the reinvestment the mortgages and treasuries, 274 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: as well as balance sheet expansion would all fall under 275 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: the same policy, which currently is to sort of invest 276 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: across the curve with the issuance pattern. And now folks 277 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: are coronado dumb question of the day. I'm always qualified 278 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: to do that. Does the pile sees this arcane PhD 279 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: trust dynamics of the repo market? Does that mean that 280 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: our listeners see D at their bank is a lower 281 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: yield than it would be otherwise. No, this is unaffected. 282 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: This doesn't affect retail yields. UH. And in fact, one 283 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: of the goals of keeping these markets liquid is that 284 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: these kinds of funding crunches don't affect retail yields. That 285 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: all of this is behind the scenes plumbing in the 286 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: wholesale market. Retail market should be Okay, we're losing Julia 287 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: right now, Julia Coronado, thank you so much for wonderful 288 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: explanations today. We are thrilled to bring you now. James 289 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: Travitas UH, with his public service to the nation in 290 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: the Navy and in course to Supreme Commander NATO as 291 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: well with the Carlisle Group. Ad been wonderful to have 292 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,199 Speaker 1: with you. We could do a two hour conversation. We 293 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: don't have time for that, but I do want to 294 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: go back to a small memo which shows from another 295 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: time and place, business as usual. May six, two thousand ten, Brussels. 296 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: And this is where the Chief of Defense of the Ukraine, 297 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 1: the Chief of Defense of Turkey, and the Supreme Allied 298 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 1: Commander of NATO one Admiral James Travitas wandered into a 299 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: room and signed a document to drive forward an ecumenical 300 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: feel about Europe within all the politics of the moment. 301 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: After what you've observed this weekend, has your efforts of 302 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 1: May six, two thousand and ten been just destroyed by 303 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 1: this domestic US politics? Certainly it's a setback. Tom. In 304 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: any time UM you allow domestic politics to insert themselves 305 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: in national security international concerns, you run great risk. And 306 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 1: this is where the old saying comes from that UM 307 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 1: politics ends at the water's edge. Well not so much anymore. 308 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 1: And therefore very carefully crafted set of relationships with Ukraine 309 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: are keetering right now. That's bad for US security. Do 310 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: you perceive this is absolutely critical? Speaking with my good 311 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: friend David Gura, who I know had Ambassador Brady on 312 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: Nicholas Brady I believe was on up this weekend. And 313 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: whether it's Nicolas Brady or it's James Travitas, the question 314 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,880 Speaker 1: is the same. Do you perceive this as a one 315 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 1: off foreign policy domestic politics moment, the unusual nous of 316 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: President Trump's tenor or is there a new permanence here 317 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: to where we take domestic politics abroad. I think there's 318 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: always been a subliminal element of what's going on domestically 319 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: that bleeds into our international stances. Classic example, you and 320 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: I are old enough to remember as the war in Vietnam, 321 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: which eventually was completely driven by domestic politics. But um, 322 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: since the fall of the Cold War, the fall of 323 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: the Berlin Law, we have not seen this level of region. 324 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: And like everybody else, hey, I want to read the 325 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: transcript of that conversation and make a judgment. Does it exist? I? Oh, absolutely, 326 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: I assure you would exists. Every time the President of 327 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: the United States speaks to a foreign leader, it is 328 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,199 Speaker 1: recorded and transcribed. That's a fact. It exists. It's a 329 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: government document, and given all that has happened, I think 330 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,479 Speaker 1: we need to take a look at it and then 331 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: we can make a judgment. And that's a fair statement. 332 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: Are you suggesting then that the uproar over Trump putin 333 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: at Helsinki just with translators their documents to those conversations. 334 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: That's a different, uh environment, when you're over when you're overseas. No, 335 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: this is a phone call he made from the White House, 336 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 1: and I've seen hundreds of those transcripts over the years. 337 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: Typically they're passed around at the highest level, so is 338 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: Supreme allet Commander at NATO. I would see UH interestments 339 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: and discussion of UH of the President of the United 340 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: States with David Cameron or with Nicholas Sarpos or Angela Merkel, 341 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,959 Speaker 1: because you need that intelligence content for your situational awareness. Um, 342 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 1: so it exists for sure if you're just joining US 343 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: admirals to Vidis. Of course, you know his book, The 344 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: Leader's Bookshelf was my book of the year here in 345 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 1: a not too distant pass. I still highly recommend that book. 346 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: It's at least fifty books out there to make you 347 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: wiser and smarter about the path of the nation and 348 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: the future of our foreign and military policy. Can you explain, 349 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,439 Speaker 1: Admiral that I'm sure you aspired to be on the 350 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: Joint Chiefs of Staff at whatever form. I mean, everybody 351 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: does it wears a uniform, how they relate to this president. 352 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: I mean they're all going to be quiet and take 353 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 1: the maddest stoic line and all that. But what's actually 354 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: going on at the Pentagon among our chiefs that are 355 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: joint first and foremost. I was very lucky because I 356 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: became Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. I was also commander 357 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: you a Southern command, Everything South of the United States, 358 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 1: so I never had to be in Washington in that 359 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 1: mouth politics. Lucky me exactly my point um. But of 360 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: course these are my friends and contemporaries who have done this, 361 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: and in time, I think you've categorized it exactly right, 362 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: which is all of them are citizens, all of them 363 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 1: have used but the professionalism at that level has to 364 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 1: be as solid as a brick wall, and it is. 365 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: There are a few certain chiefs in lifetime, but I 366 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: would bet my life that you will never see a 367 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Chairman of the 368 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: Joint Chiefs out there in a public way involved. And 369 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: how did it happen? How do you do we have 370 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: war plans with Iran? I mean, you know, I don't 371 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 1: want to give away the family secrets here, Adam get 372 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: you in trouble, but I mean, I know General Dunford 373 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: listens every moment of Bloomberg surveillance. But we have war 374 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 1: plans with Iran. I get that. Now we're sending troops 375 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: to Saudi Arabia. Is it quit like Gulf War two? 376 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: Gulf War one troops? I mean, what's that deployment signify 377 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: to you? First? We do have war plans for every 378 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 1: contingency around the world, including war with North Korea, with China, 379 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: with Russia in in this case with Iran, those are 380 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: well built there, well resourced, they're detailed, um and they 381 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: have escalation clauses in the time. So you start at 382 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: the bottom and you probably look at things like cyber attacks. 383 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: That probably what's going to happen next to Iran. But 384 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: the deployment of troops will be part of that war plan, 385 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: contingency plan, operational plan. And no, it will not be 386 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 1: a hundred fifty thousand troops going to Kuwait. This will 387 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: be uh in the thousand or two at the most. 388 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: Mostly they'll be there to defend US facilities are embassy. 389 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: I don't I don't mean to interrupt. What are two 390 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: thousand troops going to do with the margin anywhere? Whether 391 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: it's midtown it is midtown Manhattan or Riad, I mean, 392 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: come on, it is it will be. To answer your 393 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 1: fundamental question, yes, this will be deployment of trip Okay, Admiral, 394 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: thank you so much. I needed a new book idea 395 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 1: from you from the leader's bookshelf. I got to get 396 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: back to my core. I'm reading about the Romans now. 397 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: Tom the book coming out on October about character ten 398 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: Admirals and the voyage of characters. You should check it out. 399 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: There we go, it's a book plug by James Trevitas. 400 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: Somehow I think we'll be doing that. We will apples 401 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 1: to me. Just thank you so much. Here's to the 402 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: Carlisle Group, our former supreme and compender U Nato is well. 403 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 404 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 405 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 406 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 407 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 1: Radio