WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Eswar Prasad & Jed Kolko

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea. I'll get this out on Twitter

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<v Speaker 2>and LinkedIn. But it's a stunning book. It's not that

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<v Speaker 2>long of a book. The Doom Loop as our pisade

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<v Speaker 2>of Cornell why the world economic order is spiraling into disorder.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't in all of my career, I can't imagine

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<v Speaker 2>someone who is so wonderfully optimistic about the system writing

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<v Speaker 2>such a difficult book. Edward Possad with The Doom Loop

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<v Speaker 2>is just about where we are after our experiment and globalization. Here,

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<v Speaker 2>author of The Doom Loop as our pissade.

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<v Speaker 1>As I thought about all the forces that I was

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<v Speaker 1>going to argue would push us back to a more

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<v Speaker 1>stable world, a more stable equilibrium, I began to realize

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<v Speaker 1>that each of these forces might actually generate more or

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<v Speaker 1>instability rather than stability. So the book ended up being

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<v Speaker 1>one about where economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics, which always

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<v Speaker 1>go pilot tracks, they intersect with each other, but in

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<v Speaker 1>this case they're feeding off each other into a negative loop,

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<v Speaker 1>a negative feedback loop, and bringing out the worst in

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<v Speaker 1>each other.

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<v Speaker 2>As our proside. I can't say enough how odd this

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<v Speaker 2>book is to have Edward Posad do a book called

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<v Speaker 2>The Doom Loop is just extraordinary. Janet Yellen says Prosad's

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<v Speaker 2>compelling and clear eyed analysis, etc. I'll take a careful

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<v Speaker 2>look at that. You may hear much more about that

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<v Speaker 2>through the year Jet Coco in today. Jet Coco is

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<v Speaker 2>something ages ago. It truly, he basically invented the study

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<v Speaker 2>of real estate through the internet. He was like the

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<v Speaker 2>first kid in the block to do it. Now with

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<v Speaker 2>a fabulous career at the Peterson Institute, with that imposing

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<v Speaker 2>writing on labor. But I had to ask Jed Coco

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<v Speaker 2>of the Peterson Institute about housing.

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<v Speaker 3>We are at a point where, of course rates are

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<v Speaker 3>still high. There is strong construction on the multifamily side,

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<v Speaker 3>but residential construction is where both tariffs and immigration both

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<v Speaker 3>pose a risk. Those two big policy uncertainties are headwinds

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<v Speaker 3>for residential construction. And the good news is that prices

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<v Speaker 3>are not rising as fast as they were, so there

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<v Speaker 3>might be some easing of a probability concerns.

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<v Speaker 2>Jed Coco there on housing. I want to give you

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<v Speaker 2>one insight he had off of his recent work for

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<v Speaker 2>the Peterson Institute on labor. If you just look at

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<v Speaker 2>the hiring impulse in America. He models that equivalent unemployment

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<v Speaker 2>rate at eight percent, which I thought was just absolutely extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 2>He makes clear he's optimistic on the labor economy. People

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<v Speaker 2>with J are buoyant with rising incomes. But nevertheless, the

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<v Speaker 2>hiring tone is really really challenging. On podcasts on Apple,

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<v Speaker 2>on Spotify worldwide, and of course on YouTube podcasts. A

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<v Speaker 2>single best idea