1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 2: A single best idea. I'll get this out on Twitter 3 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 2: and LinkedIn. But it's a stunning book. It's not that 4 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: long of a book. The Doom Loop as our pisade 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: of Cornell why the world economic order is spiraling into disorder. 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: I can't in all of my career, I can't imagine 7 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: someone who is so wonderfully optimistic about the system writing 8 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 2: such a difficult book. Edward Possad with The Doom Loop 9 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: is just about where we are after our experiment and globalization. Here, 10 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: author of The Doom Loop as our pissade. 11 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: As I thought about all the forces that I was 12 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: going to argue would push us back to a more 13 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: stable world, a more stable equilibrium, I began to realize 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: that each of these forces might actually generate more or 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: instability rather than stability. So the book ended up being 16 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 1: one about where economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics, which always 17 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: go pilot tracks, they intersect with each other, but in 18 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: this case they're feeding off each other into a negative loop, 19 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: a negative feedback loop, and bringing out the worst in 20 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: each other. 21 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 2: As our proside. I can't say enough how odd this 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 2: book is to have Edward Posad do a book called 23 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 2: The Doom Loop is just extraordinary. Janet Yellen says Prosad's 24 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 2: compelling and clear eyed analysis, etc. I'll take a careful 25 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: look at that. You may hear much more about that 26 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 2: through the year Jet Coco in today. Jet Coco is 27 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 2: something ages ago. It truly, he basically invented the study 28 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: of real estate through the internet. He was like the 29 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 2: first kid in the block to do it. Now with 30 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: a fabulous career at the Peterson Institute, with that imposing 31 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 2: writing on labor. But I had to ask Jed Coco 32 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: of the Peterson Institute about housing. 33 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 3: We are at a point where, of course rates are 34 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 3: still high. There is strong construction on the multifamily side, 35 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 3: but residential construction is where both tariffs and immigration both 36 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 3: pose a risk. Those two big policy uncertainties are headwinds 37 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 3: for residential construction. And the good news is that prices 38 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 3: are not rising as fast as they were, so there 39 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 3: might be some easing of a probability concerns. 40 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 2: Jed Coco there on housing. I want to give you 41 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 2: one insight he had off of his recent work for 42 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: the Peterson Institute on labor. If you just look at 43 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 2: the hiring impulse in America. He models that equivalent unemployment 44 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:55,399 Speaker 2: rate at eight percent, which I thought was just absolutely extraordinary. 45 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 2: He makes clear he's optimistic on the labor economy. People 46 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: with J are buoyant with rising incomes. But nevertheless, the 47 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: hiring tone is really really challenging. On podcasts on Apple, 48 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: on Spotify worldwide, and of course on YouTube podcasts. A 49 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: single best idea