Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast with Tom Keene, Jonathan Barrow,
Speaker 1: and Lisa Ramowitz Dally. We bring you inside from the
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Tournament. There is a crisis from call it Winnipeg
Speaker 1: in the normal winter of Canada. An I'm down through
Speaker 1: the Dakotas and to Texas. We've seen the snow at
Speaker 1: the Alamo. It is a freeze. It is in many
Speaker 1: cases of blizzard with massive hardship. We tried to go
Speaker 1: out and find the guy qualified, and yes, that would
Speaker 1: be the Railroad Commission of Texas Commissioner Jim Right. But
Speaker 1: not for the reasons that you think. Jim Right grew
Speaker 1: up west of Corpus Christie. He's a legitimate guy who
Speaker 1: knows about the animals of Texas, the rodeo bull riding
Speaker 1: at all. He has a visceral knowledge, Jim, what people
Speaker 1: are putting up with right now. Jim, we want to
Speaker 1: talk to you about the electric grid and the rest
Speaker 1: of it, the energy markets. But I've got to ask
Speaker 1: you this morning. You're living it tell us what the
Speaker 1: ranchers are doing across the southern Midwest. Well, I'll tell
Speaker 1: you from being a rancher myself. We've been out repairing pipes,
Speaker 1: so we make sure that we have water and energy
Speaker 1: uh uh to our livestock and water to our homes.
Speaker 1: Is there a risk here or with modern technology, is
Speaker 1: it going to be different than eight nine? I don't
Speaker 1: see it being much different right now from those times
Speaker 1: you know, pipes, pipes seem to break whenever it gets cold,
Speaker 1: and you still have to go out and fix those. Well, Jim,
Speaker 1: given the fact that extreme temperature may become something more
Speaker 1: normal or perhaps more regularly occurring, and going forward, what
Speaker 1: do you expect to be necessary to fortify the electricity
Speaker 1: grid as we know it? You know, I think that
Speaker 1: we're going to have to take a stronger look at
Speaker 1: uh who's allowed priority on our grid system. Right now,
Speaker 1: we're saying that the renewable energy has that priority, which
Speaker 1: is discouraging our are reliable energy source, which seems to
Speaker 1: be more natural gas fossil fuel related from coming in
Speaker 1: and building the plants needed to pick up this power
Speaker 1: demand in time times like these. Wait, but I just
Speaker 1: really want to clarify this ship. Are you saying that
Speaker 1: the problem here lies with the wind turbines, some of
Speaker 1: the renewable energies and not with some of the pipelines
Speaker 1: and freezing and other issues there is that what you're saying, Well, yeah,
Speaker 1: in a certain way, you know, I think that as
Speaker 1: we here in Texas has said that renewable energy has
Speaker 1: priority on our grid. We've discouraged the people coming in
Speaker 1: and building car plants that run off of natural gas,
Speaker 1: which is more of a reliable source than than has
Speaker 1: every and knows when and uh the sun is. So
Speaker 1: I think that what we're experiencing today is the fact
Speaker 1: that we just don't have enough plants to keep up
Speaker 1: with our demand during times like these. What does the
Speaker 1: Railroad Commission of Texas need to do to dovetail a
Speaker 1: boom economy and the capitalism of Texas with the constraints
Speaker 1: the limits that you face ecologically. Yeah, I think that, uh,
Speaker 1: one of those big things is more on along the
Speaker 1: lines of educating people on the benefits of fossil fuel
Speaker 1: and the benefits of our renewable energy. You know, both
Speaker 1: both have places here in Texas. I think that we
Speaker 1: need to make sure that we are smart enough to
Speaker 1: make those coexisting along alongside one another, but while still
Speaker 1: keeping a focus on improving our environment. You know, when
Speaker 1: I look at the environment, I look at that in
Speaker 1: two ways. It's not only what mankind's impact is our
Speaker 1: planet Earth, but it's also are the impact caused by
Speaker 1: the debt that we're accumulating trying to trying to continue
Speaker 1: to protect what mankind's uh impact we seem to think
Speaker 1: we have on on on Earth. You know, we we've
Speaker 1: had some large issues here in Texas with flaring and
Speaker 1: and I think it's important that we in Texas start
Speaker 1: developing more of a market for our natural gas so
Speaker 1: that that that continues to be a good, reliable source
Speaker 1: and did not create any type of impact on as
Speaker 1: far as the missions is concerned. Jim right, you've got
Speaker 1: a crisis right now in this weather. The crisis was
Speaker 1: your stunning victory a year ago within this important position
Speaker 1: for the state of Texas. How did you pull that off?
Speaker 1: How did a rancher from basically west of Corpus Christie
Speaker 1: pull off the victory you pulled off? And how can
Speaker 1: you provide that lesson is leadership to move Texas forward? Now?
Speaker 1: I think It shows that people in Texas are are
Speaker 1: looking at people that are putting in office today to
Speaker 1: be more of a leader with a business mind. You know,
Speaker 1: I've been in business pretty much all of my life
Speaker 1: with my own companies and work closely in the all
Speaker 1: and gas industry and all energy sectors. And the people
Speaker 1: that are out out in that sector and seemed to
Speaker 1: dominate what we have here in Texas, especially in the
Speaker 1: rural areas, and they know what that means to our economy.
Speaker 1: And I think that that is that's the key to success,
Speaker 1: is people that know boots on the ground and how
Speaker 1: to get issues resolved. Jim, it's fantastic to have you
Speaker 1: us on the program with us. Please come back soon,
Speaker 1: stay close, and we wish to stay well. Jim, right there,
Speaker 1: the Texas Railroad Commissioner. I look at the Swiss twenty
Speaker 1: year yield is sort of a keel of the boat
Speaker 1: of Europe. John, it's about ready to move to a
Speaker 1: positive statistic once more. It's been a negative twenty year
Speaker 1: yield in Switzerland and it's come up like a moon shot.
Speaker 1: I know Allen knows as well. I would go to
Speaker 1: bunds as well. Tom bundyil to moving with treasury old
Speaker 1: as well, let's bring it down and Rusky in Deutsche
Speaker 1: Bank chief International strategist, and and let's just start right
Speaker 1: there that line. The bottom line, the only reason to
Speaker 1: be barished is there is no reason to be barished.
Speaker 1: What's your takeaway, Alan Well, I think the main cautionary
Speaker 1: note to the bullish equity view is really that there's
Speaker 1: good reasons to be bearish in terms of bonds. I
Speaker 1: think the fixed income story revolves around the reflation that
Speaker 1: we're going on, but also the risks are very much
Speaker 1: tilted towards access reflation um And I'm not necessarily saying
Speaker 1: we're talking about inflation per se, because inflation is very
Speaker 1: much a lagging indicator, lags growth by about eighteen months.
Speaker 1: But in terms of growth and the potential for overheating
Speaker 1: from fiscal policy, which is flat on into if we
Speaker 1: get anything close to the one point nine trillion from
Speaker 1: Biden money supply growth which is the highest ever. Financial
Speaker 1: conditions is easy as we've ever had. There's something for everybody.
Speaker 1: I think in terms of inflation. You know, I look
Speaker 1: Ellen it this move that we've had in the idea
Speaker 1: that we've given up worried about inflation moving up. We
Speaker 1: have been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. I mean you've been
Speaker 1: doing this for four or five, six decades, Alan, I
Speaker 1: mean we have been wrong on inflation moving higher. Why
Speaker 1: won't we be wrong again? We might be wrong again,
Speaker 1: And you know, it's it's it's a it's a tough core.
Speaker 1: I think we know where all the risks currently lie.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, you know, the lags along, so
Speaker 1: we want to know whether we're right or wrong for
Speaker 1: a long period of time. But you know, when you're
Speaker 1: think in terms of the things that are disinflationary, part
Speaker 1: of it just relates to the calculation. The cyclical elements
Speaker 1: will be inflationary, but we have lots of things which
Speaker 1: are not cyclical, things like medical care, things like education.
Speaker 1: A lot of the services don't necessarily respond to higher growth,
Speaker 1: so we might not see it in the statistics, but
Speaker 1: the cyclic or elements will almost certainly show some uptick.
Speaker 1: Allen is the reflectionary trade dependent on central banks remaining
Speaker 1: this accommodative forever. I don't think so. Look, I think
Speaker 1: the you know, the FED clearly doesn't want to take
Speaker 1: away the punch bowl in terms of their flexible average
Speaker 1: inflation targeting regime. You know, if they true to that,
Speaker 1: they're not going to be hiking rates for this year.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be hiking rates next year, probably only
Speaker 1: hike in three So you know, I think in that sense,
Speaker 1: they're not huge amount of risks. I think the bigger
Speaker 1: issues what the market does and what the bond market does.
Speaker 1: So the market is going to tighten for the FED
Speaker 1: to some extent, and I think that's going to constrain
Speaker 1: some of the boolliants that we're seeing in risky assets. Well,
Speaker 1: and let's talk about the energy story as well, because Crew,
Speaker 1: it's been absolutely flying even before this deepening energy crisis
Speaker 1: in the United States of America. I've had a lot
Speaker 1: of people in the last couple of months talking about
Speaker 1: at the start of another commodity supercycle. Alan, does that
Speaker 1: reson it with you? I don't know about a supercycle,
Speaker 1: but I like oil and our oil guys, you know,
Speaker 1: clearly behind that call in terms of you know, favorable
Speaker 1: oil trades. The good news there is that unlike a
Speaker 1: lot of other markets which are being preemptive of thinking forward,
Speaker 1: and it can price things forward aggressively at least the
Speaker 1: storage costs and oil tend to mean that you don't
Speaker 1: price quite far ahead, and I think that helps one
Speaker 1: in terms of thinking that oil can go higher in
Speaker 1: the future. And now that's what's interesting I think is
Speaker 1: if you look at the curve today, the backwardation we
Speaker 1: see in the forward's curve is quite extraordinary. So, you know,
Speaker 1: I think that also hints that you can sort of
Speaker 1: pick up I think deck W T I around fifty five.
Speaker 1: That still seems like a decent bed. Allen, you do
Speaker 1: such good work on the history at all times. What
Speaker 1: is this like? Is there a compare and contrast to
Speaker 1: a previous moment or time that you can grab on here? Honestly, uh,
Speaker 1: you mentioned four or five decades, not quite five or
Speaker 1: six decades, close to the four decades of work, And
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like this at all in terms
Speaker 1: of um, you know, the the ease of policy I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, you know, the fiscal stimulus outside wartime, extraordinary
Speaker 1: money supply growth like we've never seen before. Every indicator
Speaker 1: with in financial conditions, equities, credit spreads, the exchange rate,
Speaker 1: all are extraordinarily easy. Now we have come often in
Speaker 1: a particular shock at one of the you know, really
Speaker 1: the sharpest shock I've ever seen in terms of the virus.
Speaker 1: But equally, when we get the vaccine, we should be
Speaker 1: rebounding in the other directions. So you've got policy compounding
Speaker 1: that rebound. So, um, you know, we really haven't seen
Speaker 1: anything like this before, and we probably are going to
Speaker 1: see GDP growth rates. Um. You know, our baseline without
Speaker 1: at the one point nine trillion Biden physical stimulus, just
Speaker 1: maybe something like a one trillion of physical package is
Speaker 1: six percent plus GDP growth. We're looking at a eight
Speaker 1: percent type number if we get the full physical package
Speaker 1: that Biden is promising. Alana. This is exactly why what
Speaker 1: you're talking about to tie this all together, this is
Speaker 1: exactly why people are saying that the old models of
Speaker 1: what a bubble is, of what overheated is don't count
Speaker 1: because this is a new era of central bank stimulus.
Speaker 1: It is a new era of reflation with respect to
Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. Do you agree to the old models not
Speaker 1: work anymore and we can't count on them to ring
Speaker 1: the alarm bell saying there is too much froth from
Speaker 1: the system. I think we struggle to come up with
Speaker 1: accurate pricing and appropriate frameworks when interest rates is zero
Speaker 1: but as interest rates normalized, and if they normalize at
Speaker 1: the back end of the curve, and I think they'll
Speaker 1: start to reevaluate in terms of, you know, what appropriate
Speaker 1: p ratios are for a given bond healed, and I
Speaker 1: think that will lead to, you know, some rethinking in
Speaker 1: terms of fair valuations. But absolutely, if policy is this easy,
Speaker 1: we don't really know, you know, how to appropriately value things.
Speaker 1: And we're making a bet and making considerations that relates
Speaker 1: to whether we will see inflation eighteen months hence or not. Really, that's,
Speaker 1: to me is the macro question of the day. Alan,
Speaker 1: great to catch up, sir, and I'm Ruskin at Deutsche Bank.
Speaker 1: Thank you. Right now we're gonna switch back to what
Speaker 1: is a monthly visit and a required visit. Gideon Roses
Speaker 1: with the Council on Foreign her Relations are distinguished fellow
Speaker 1: and Guides of Foreign Affairs. Just a superb job of
Speaker 1: resurrecting the magazine into immediacy. And the immediacy is the
Speaker 1: decline and fall? Can America ever lead again? And you're
Speaker 1: now at Gideon, were a chapter of fragmented power? How
Speaker 1: fragmented are we? We are humpty dumpty, and we are
Speaker 1: just beginning to put this slightly back together with crazy
Speaker 1: glue and hoping that it doesn't fall down again before
Speaker 1: the glue sets getting and can give a sense of
Speaker 1: the import of having a global leader right now as
Speaker 1: we still have a pandemic very much in the forefront,
Speaker 1: with mutating strains and the idea that this is here
Speaker 1: to stay. Well. The pandemic emphasized that there was a
Speaker 1: real world out there that bites back, and that government
Speaker 1: is not just a game that Americans play with each other,
Speaker 1: and that politics isn't just a rhetorical blood sport. There
Speaker 1: are consequences, there are policies. Most people used to think
Speaker 1: the government is supposed to do something to protect the
Speaker 1: people from external dangers, internal dangers, and advance their interests.
Speaker 1: And when the government really didn't do anything about the pandemic,
Speaker 1: at least in the short term, uh, it seemed to
Speaker 1: fundamentally challenge that entire notion. And the world looked on
Speaker 1: and said, you guys aren't just supposed to be the
Speaker 1: government of the United States. You're supposed to be de
Speaker 1: facto running the world as well. And when the world
Speaker 1: just basically was left to go to its own devices
Speaker 1: like Lord of the flies under pressure, everybody went to
Speaker 1: their own national interests, and essentially the world started to fragment,
Speaker 1: and the order and the team that the United States
Speaker 1: had been leading for several decades ever since the end
Speaker 1: of World War two, fifth fully haltingly in different ways,
Speaker 1: started to break up or stagnate. And the question now is, Okay,
Speaker 1: there's a captain who's back in, you know, Dennis Robbins
Speaker 1: come back from Las Vegas and his partying, and now
Speaker 1: the bulls are ready to play, and something's actually gonna happen.
Speaker 1: What's gonna happen? The world is watching to see if
Speaker 1: the United States can regain its consciousness as a mature,
Speaker 1: responsible government, both domestically and internationally. And so far they
Speaker 1: don't necessarily like every single policy, and you're never gonna
Speaker 1: find every single policy because a lot of different players
Speaker 1: in the world. But so far, people are breathing a
Speaker 1: sigh of relief that some of the craziness seems to
Speaker 1: be over getting less phone in this fold in this
Speaker 1: conversation to the vaccine rollout, do you think the vaccine
Speaker 1: rollout of the last site three months or so is
Speaker 1: bringing countries further together or pushing them further apart. Uh. Well,
Speaker 1: I would say right now it's pushing them further apart,
Speaker 1: because everyone's sort of vying to get the vaccines, and
Speaker 1: it's a sort of crawling over each other to try
Speaker 1: and get the vaccine on the line. So it's a
Speaker 1: bigger type beg of the neighbor time situation. But over time,
Speaker 1: as the vaccines actually kick in, as we start getting
Speaker 1: something approaching her immunity down the road, as things as
Speaker 1: the cooperate, as the circumstances in which cooperation can take hold,
Speaker 1: after everybody is a little bit less scared, then you
Speaker 1: have a government in charge now in the United States
Speaker 1: that may be in a role to play the sort
Speaker 1: of calm uh team leader bringing people back together after
Speaker 1: the crisis. We're still in the depths of the crisis obviously,
Speaker 1: and everybody is still completely freaked, and everybody is still
Speaker 1: racing to try and get an immediate advantage. But as
Speaker 1: things get better over the course of one the opportunities
Speaker 1: to focus on the upside rather than just getting out
Speaker 1: of the media crisis and the down and and escaping
Speaker 1: the immediate downsides might become more apparent. And I think
Speaker 1: that and the payoffs and the Biden administration will start
Speaker 1: to come more apparent. Help me, here were the agenda
Speaker 1: of the president. The president is going to do a
Speaker 1: road trip I assumed to Europe to you know, regreet
Speaker 1: the allies, etcetera, meet the queen or whatever. And then
Speaker 1: there has to be some kind of Asia swing. Is
Speaker 1: Beijing on the itinerary? You know the details of that? Uh?
Speaker 1: Certainly the China relationship. The Biden administration understands it needs
Speaker 1: to rebuild its alliances first, because the United States does
Speaker 1: not play international politics as an individual. It plays as
Speaker 1: a team leader. The Bush administrator, the Trump administration failed
Speaker 1: to recognize that, and the rest of the team was going,
Speaker 1: what's going on? Since you have been the leader of
Speaker 1: a global alliance that has essentially run the entire world,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about this only America thing. The
Speaker 1: Biden administration, recognizing that it is team leader first and foremost,
Speaker 1: has made mending its relations with its core allies the
Speaker 1: first agenda item. But dealing with China and the U. S.
Speaker 1: China relationship will clearly be the single greatest challenge over
Speaker 1: the course not just of the Biden administration for American
Speaker 1: farm policy, but for at least the next decade and
Speaker 1: maybe the next generation or two of American farm policy.
Speaker 1: And so the question is can the United States and
Speaker 1: China manage their relationship which is clearly somewhat conflictual but
Speaker 1: does not need to go to war? Can they manage
Speaker 1: it that and keep it within tracks and on rails?
Speaker 1: Getting no, what's great to catch up. Appreciate your time
Speaker 1: this morning, sir. Thank you getting roads there of CFR.
Speaker 1: Mandy zero joining us now on this market from Credit Space,
Speaker 1: the chief equity derivative strategist. This market is grinding higher,
Speaker 1: up another twenty one on the SNP and we've got
Speaker 1: one on the US ten year Manny, just want me three.
Speaker 1: You're thinking right now that relationship between the direction of
Speaker 1: ten year yields and what happens with the broad directorting market. Yeah, hey, hey,
Speaker 1: John um So. I think we've gotten a lot of
Speaker 1: questions around inflation from investors in recent weeks, given the
Speaker 1: movements and break events, and the point that I make
Speaker 1: here that it's important differentiate like what we're talking about
Speaker 1: when it comes to INFLATIONIP, are we talking about a
Speaker 1: temporary overshoot of inflation this year due to reopening? Due
Speaker 1: to all this you know demand that everyone's talking about,
Speaker 1: or are we talking about a sustained increase sustained runaway inflationhip? Right?
Speaker 1: I think the FED really cares about ladder. I think
Speaker 1: it doesn't really care about the former, and I had
Speaker 1: not heard anyone makes a real credible case for the latter.
Speaker 1: And I think in this case, when it comes to inflation,
Speaker 1: it actually helps that Powell is not a trained economist
Speaker 1: or doesn't have a formal economics training like yelling or burnanky,
Speaker 1: because he's less weathered to economic theory that says, you know,
Speaker 1: as unemployment comes down, inflation must rise. Right. I think
Speaker 1: he's booking at the empirical data which shows him that
Speaker 1: inflation is nowhere to be found in the developed world
Speaker 1: of last twenty years. And as such, you know, the
Speaker 1: SEID can be much more focused on its unemployment mandate
Speaker 1: without lowering about inflation. So what does that mean for markets?
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be very very patient this year.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, even if we get a big
Speaker 1: core CPC overshoot at some point this year due to reopening,
Speaker 1: you know, sets able to stay very patient. And that's
Speaker 1: positive for equities and positives for a lot of rotation
Speaker 1: trades that we've already started to see that I think
Speaker 1: ex for the room to run man help merror mortals
Speaker 1: here on a Tuesday morning with the Greeks. You're the
Speaker 1: derivatives said your credit sueez and the idea that you're
Speaker 1: moving up. You're in play. But there are signposts where
Speaker 1: enough is enough. One of the signals where you say
Speaker 1: in the derivative market, enough is enough. Look, I think
Speaker 1: people are rightly worried about I guess you know, you know,
Speaker 1: the speed of the rally, how substainable it is, whether people,
Speaker 1: you know, investors are too completion. So what I can
Speaker 1: say is, at least on the derivatives market, positioning at
Speaker 1: the index level is still very cautious. And I say this,
Speaker 1: you know, with VIC still relatively elevated, even though markets
Speaker 1: making all time high. And I say particularly if you
Speaker 1: look at you know, the demand for protection as index level,
Speaker 1: that is still very very ROBUSTO measures, skew measures of
Speaker 1: tail risk in the SMP. You know, it's still near
Speaker 1: the highs that we've seen over the past year. So
Speaker 1: at least in the index market is slow as that
Speaker 1: we've seen, We're still seeing a lot of demands will protection.
Speaker 1: A lot of downtime had just been put on, So
Speaker 1: I don't see that kind of euphoria that um, you
Speaker 1: know in the index level that you know, I do
Speaker 1: a single stock level, which is a totally different story.
Speaker 1: But I would say at the index level, positioning is still,
Speaker 1: you know, fairly cautious. Mandy, let's talk single stock, let's
Speaker 1: talk game stop and those hearings that Congress is going
Speaker 1: to be having later this week. What's your sense in
Speaker 1: terms of whether there is something improper that occurred with
Speaker 1: the derivatives trading that you saw that you think they
Speaker 1: will hone in on and perhaps target. Look, I think
Speaker 1: takeaway here that this is much bigger than just one
Speaker 1: particular stock or you know, one particular segment. The bigger
Speaker 1: impact from you know, the retail trading that we've seen
Speaker 1: is that across broad swath of the market, we're seeing
Speaker 1: a complete repricing of upside risk. So you know, the
Speaker 1: game stop, the A m c s, you know, those
Speaker 1: are tiny, right, but within the SMP top one hundred
Speaker 1: large cap stock, thirty percent are now trading with inverted skew,
Speaker 1: which is just a technical term saying that the upside
Speaker 1: calls are now trading at a premium to be at
Speaker 1: the money calls. That is very, very unusual. To put
Speaker 1: that percentage in perspective, over the last ten years, that
Speaker 1: percentage historically has averages out six percent. Right, So now
Speaker 1: we're thirty percent of the names trade with inverted skew
Speaker 1: when traditionally has been up six percent. I think that's
Speaker 1: the legacy, that's the impact from the retail option trading.
Speaker 1: Where notice the retail consumer piece, it's typically buyers of
Speaker 1: upside call options. And that's how we're seeing It's upside
Speaker 1: call with the higher across you know, not just small caps,
Speaker 1: not just the highly you know, shorter names, but we're
Speaker 1: seeing it, you know, with the large cap tech names,
Speaker 1: with the financials, with the energy across broad industries and inspectors. So, Mandy,
Speaker 1: we got thirty seconds with you, so forgive me for
Speaker 1: pushing you on the time. You are much smarter than
Speaker 1: put this into very simple terms for our audience this
Speaker 1: morning that might not be familiar with these things. Yield up,
Speaker 1: the equity market is up, and the VIX is up
Speaker 1: this morning. Why just in very simple terms, why is
Speaker 1: volatility up with the move was seeing high so I
Speaker 1: would say, you know, the VIX is not just a
Speaker 1: measure of motility. It also incorporates demand for putting calls.
Speaker 1: All else equals, we're seeing more demands for obstacle that
Speaker 1: could drive the VIC higher. That is one way in
Speaker 1: which the VIX can go higher as the market is
Speaker 1: going higher. It's driven by demands for this called Mandy.
Speaker 1: Thank you. I appreciate that Mandy say that of credits waste.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and
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