1 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast with Tom Keene, Jonathan Barrow, 2 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: and Lisa Ramowitz Dally. We bring you inside from the 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg 4 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,159 Speaker 1: Surveillance on Apple, Podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and the 5 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Tournament. There is a crisis from call it Winnipeg 6 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: in the normal winter of Canada. An I'm down through 7 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: the Dakotas and to Texas. We've seen the snow at 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: the Alamo. It is a freeze. It is in many 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: cases of blizzard with massive hardship. We tried to go 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: out and find the guy qualified, and yes, that would 11 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: be the Railroad Commission of Texas Commissioner Jim Right. But 12 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 1: not for the reasons that you think. Jim Right grew 13 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: up west of Corpus Christie. He's a legitimate guy who 14 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: knows about the animals of Texas, the rodeo bull riding 15 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: at all. He has a visceral knowledge, Jim, what people 16 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: are putting up with right now. Jim, we want to 17 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: talk to you about the electric grid and the rest 18 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,199 Speaker 1: of it, the energy markets. But I've got to ask 19 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: you this morning. You're living it tell us what the 20 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: ranchers are doing across the southern Midwest. Well, I'll tell 21 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: you from being a rancher myself. We've been out repairing pipes, 22 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: so we make sure that we have water and energy 23 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,199 Speaker 1: uh uh to our livestock and water to our homes. 24 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: Is there a risk here or with modern technology, is 25 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: it going to be different than eight nine? I don't 26 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: see it being much different right now from those times 27 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, pipes, pipes seem to break whenever it gets cold, 28 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: and you still have to go out and fix those. Well, Jim, 29 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: given the fact that extreme temperature may become something more 30 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: normal or perhaps more regularly occurring, and going forward, what 31 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: do you expect to be necessary to fortify the electricity 32 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: grid as we know it? You know, I think that 33 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: we're going to have to take a stronger look at 34 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: uh who's allowed priority on our grid system. Right now, 35 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: we're saying that the renewable energy has that priority, which 36 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: is discouraging our are reliable energy source, which seems to 37 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: be more natural gas fossil fuel related from coming in 38 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: and building the plants needed to pick up this power 39 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 1: demand in time times like these. Wait, but I just 40 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: really want to clarify this ship. Are you saying that 41 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 1: the problem here lies with the wind turbines, some of 42 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: the renewable energies and not with some of the pipelines 43 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: and freezing and other issues there is that what you're saying, Well, yeah, 44 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: in a certain way, you know, I think that as 45 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 1: we here in Texas has said that renewable energy has 46 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: priority on our grid. We've discouraged the people coming in 47 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: and building car plants that run off of natural gas, 48 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 1: which is more of a reliable source than than has 49 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: every and knows when and uh the sun is. So 50 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,679 Speaker 1: I think that what we're experiencing today is the fact 51 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: that we just don't have enough plants to keep up 52 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: with our demand during times like these. What does the 53 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: Railroad Commission of Texas need to do to dovetail a 54 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: boom economy and the capitalism of Texas with the constraints 55 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: the limits that you face ecologically. Yeah, I think that, uh, 56 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: one of those big things is more on along the 57 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: lines of educating people on the benefits of fossil fuel 58 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: and the benefits of our renewable energy. You know, both 59 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: both have places here in Texas. I think that we 60 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: need to make sure that we are smart enough to 61 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: make those coexisting along alongside one another, but while still 62 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: keeping a focus on improving our environment. You know, when 63 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: I look at the environment, I look at that in 64 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: two ways. It's not only what mankind's impact is our 65 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 1: planet Earth, but it's also are the impact caused by 66 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: the debt that we're accumulating trying to trying to continue 67 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: to protect what mankind's uh impact we seem to think 68 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: we have on on on Earth. You know, we we've 69 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: had some large issues here in Texas with flaring and 70 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: and I think it's important that we in Texas start 71 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: developing more of a market for our natural gas so 72 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: that that that continues to be a good, reliable source 73 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: and did not create any type of impact on as 74 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: far as the missions is concerned. Jim right, you've got 75 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: a crisis right now in this weather. The crisis was 76 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: your stunning victory a year ago within this important position 77 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: for the state of Texas. How did you pull that off? 78 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: How did a rancher from basically west of Corpus Christie 79 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: pull off the victory you pulled off? And how can 80 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: you provide that lesson is leadership to move Texas forward? Now? 81 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: I think It shows that people in Texas are are 82 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: looking at people that are putting in office today to 83 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: be more of a leader with a business mind. You know, 84 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: I've been in business pretty much all of my life 85 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: with my own companies and work closely in the all 86 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: and gas industry and all energy sectors. And the people 87 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 1: that are out out in that sector and seemed to 88 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: dominate what we have here in Texas, especially in the 89 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: rural areas, and they know what that means to our economy. 90 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: And I think that that is that's the key to success, 91 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: is people that know boots on the ground and how 92 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: to get issues resolved. Jim, it's fantastic to have you 93 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: us on the program with us. Please come back soon, 94 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: stay close, and we wish to stay well. Jim, right there, 95 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: the Texas Railroad Commissioner. I look at the Swiss twenty 96 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: year yield is sort of a keel of the boat 97 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: of Europe. John, it's about ready to move to a 98 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: positive statistic once more. It's been a negative twenty year 99 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 1: yield in Switzerland and it's come up like a moon shot. 100 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: I know Allen knows as well. I would go to 101 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: bunds as well. Tom bundyil to moving with treasury old 102 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: as well, let's bring it down and Rusky in Deutsche 103 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: Bank chief International strategist, and and let's just start right 104 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: there that line. The bottom line, the only reason to 105 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: be barished is there is no reason to be barished. 106 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: What's your takeaway, Alan Well, I think the main cautionary 107 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: note to the bullish equity view is really that there's 108 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 1: good reasons to be bearish in terms of bonds. I 109 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: think the fixed income story revolves around the reflation that 110 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: we're going on, but also the risks are very much 111 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: tilted towards access reflation um And I'm not necessarily saying 112 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: we're talking about inflation per se, because inflation is very 113 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: much a lagging indicator, lags growth by about eighteen months. 114 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: But in terms of growth and the potential for overheating 115 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: from fiscal policy, which is flat on into if we 116 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: get anything close to the one point nine trillion from 117 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: Biden money supply growth which is the highest ever. Financial 118 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: conditions is easy as we've ever had. There's something for everybody. 119 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: I think in terms of inflation. You know, I look 120 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: Ellen it this move that we've had in the idea 121 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: that we've given up worried about inflation moving up. We 122 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: have been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. I mean you've been 123 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: doing this for four or five, six decades, Alan, I 124 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: mean we have been wrong on inflation moving higher. Why 125 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: won't we be wrong again? We might be wrong again, 126 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: And you know, it's it's it's a it's a tough core. 127 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: I think we know where all the risks currently lie. 128 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, you know, the lags along, so 129 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: we want to know whether we're right or wrong for 130 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: a long period of time. But you know, when you're 131 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: think in terms of the things that are disinflationary, part 132 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: of it just relates to the calculation. The cyclical elements 133 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: will be inflationary, but we have lots of things which 134 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: are not cyclical, things like medical care, things like education. 135 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: A lot of the services don't necessarily respond to higher growth, 136 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: so we might not see it in the statistics, but 137 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: the cyclic or elements will almost certainly show some uptick. 138 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: Allen is the reflectionary trade dependent on central banks remaining 139 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: this accommodative forever. I don't think so. Look, I think 140 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: the you know, the FED clearly doesn't want to take 141 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: away the punch bowl in terms of their flexible average 142 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: inflation targeting regime. You know, if they true to that, 143 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: they're not going to be hiking rates for this year. 144 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: They're not gonna be hiking rates next year, probably only 145 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: hike in three So you know, I think in that sense, 146 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: they're not huge amount of risks. I think the bigger 147 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: issues what the market does and what the bond market does. 148 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: So the market is going to tighten for the FED 149 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: to some extent, and I think that's going to constrain 150 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: some of the boolliants that we're seeing in risky assets. Well, 151 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: and let's talk about the energy story as well, because Crew, 152 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: it's been absolutely flying even before this deepening energy crisis 153 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: in the United States of America. I've had a lot 154 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: of people in the last couple of months talking about 155 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 1: at the start of another commodity supercycle. Alan, does that 156 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: reson it with you? I don't know about a supercycle, 157 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: but I like oil and our oil guys, you know, 158 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: clearly behind that call in terms of you know, favorable 159 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: oil trades. The good news there is that unlike a 160 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 1: lot of other markets which are being preemptive of thinking forward, 161 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: and it can price things forward aggressively at least the 162 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: storage costs and oil tend to mean that you don't 163 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: price quite far ahead, and I think that helps one 164 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: in terms of thinking that oil can go higher in 165 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: the future. And now that's what's interesting I think is 166 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 1: if you look at the curve today, the backwardation we 167 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: see in the forward's curve is quite extraordinary. So, you know, 168 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: I think that also hints that you can sort of 169 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: pick up I think deck W T I around fifty five. 170 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: That still seems like a decent bed. Allen, you do 171 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: such good work on the history at all times. What 172 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: is this like? Is there a compare and contrast to 173 00:09:54,360 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: a previous moment or time that you can grab on here? Honestly, uh, 174 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: you mentioned four or five decades, not quite five or 175 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: six decades, close to the four decades of work, And 176 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like this at all in terms 177 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: of um, you know, the the ease of policy I 178 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, you know, the fiscal stimulus outside wartime, extraordinary 179 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: money supply growth like we've never seen before. Every indicator 180 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: with in financial conditions, equities, credit spreads, the exchange rate, 181 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: all are extraordinarily easy. Now we have come often in 182 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: a particular shock at one of the you know, really 183 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: the sharpest shock I've ever seen in terms of the virus. 184 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: But equally, when we get the vaccine, we should be 185 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: rebounding in the other directions. So you've got policy compounding 186 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: that rebound. So, um, you know, we really haven't seen 187 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 1: anything like this before, and we probably are going to 188 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: see GDP growth rates. Um. You know, our baseline without 189 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: at the one point nine trillion Biden physical stimulus, just 190 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: maybe something like a one trillion of physical package is 191 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: six percent plus GDP growth. We're looking at a eight 192 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: percent type number if we get the full physical package 193 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: that Biden is promising. Alana. This is exactly why what 194 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: you're talking about to tie this all together, this is 195 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: exactly why people are saying that the old models of 196 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: what a bubble is, of what overheated is don't count 197 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 1: because this is a new era of central bank stimulus. 198 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: It is a new era of reflation with respect to 199 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,839 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. Do you agree to the old models not 200 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 1: work anymore and we can't count on them to ring 201 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: the alarm bell saying there is too much froth from 202 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: the system. I think we struggle to come up with 203 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: accurate pricing and appropriate frameworks when interest rates is zero 204 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: but as interest rates normalized, and if they normalize at 205 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: the back end of the curve, and I think they'll 206 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,599 Speaker 1: start to reevaluate in terms of, you know, what appropriate 207 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: p ratios are for a given bond healed, and I 208 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 1: think that will lead to, you know, some rethinking in 209 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: terms of fair valuations. But absolutely, if policy is this easy, 210 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: we don't really know, you know, how to appropriately value things. 211 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: And we're making a bet and making considerations that relates 212 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: to whether we will see inflation eighteen months hence or not. Really, that's, 213 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: to me is the macro question of the day. Alan, 214 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: great to catch up, sir, and I'm Ruskin at Deutsche Bank. 215 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: Thank you. Right now we're gonna switch back to what 216 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: is a monthly visit and a required visit. Gideon Roses 217 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: with the Council on Foreign her Relations are distinguished fellow 218 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 1: and Guides of Foreign Affairs. Just a superb job of 219 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: resurrecting the magazine into immediacy. And the immediacy is the 220 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: decline and fall? Can America ever lead again? And you're 221 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: now at Gideon, were a chapter of fragmented power? How 222 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: fragmented are we? We are humpty dumpty, and we are 223 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: just beginning to put this slightly back together with crazy 224 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 1: glue and hoping that it doesn't fall down again before 225 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: the glue sets getting and can give a sense of 226 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: the import of having a global leader right now as 227 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: we still have a pandemic very much in the forefront, 228 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: with mutating strains and the idea that this is here 229 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: to stay. Well. The pandemic emphasized that there was a 230 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: real world out there that bites back, and that government 231 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: is not just a game that Americans play with each other, 232 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: and that politics isn't just a rhetorical blood sport. There 233 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: are consequences, there are policies. Most people used to think 234 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: the government is supposed to do something to protect the 235 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: people from external dangers, internal dangers, and advance their interests. 236 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: And when the government really didn't do anything about the pandemic, 237 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: at least in the short term, uh, it seemed to 238 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 1: fundamentally challenge that entire notion. And the world looked on 239 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: and said, you guys aren't just supposed to be the 240 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: government of the United States. You're supposed to be de 241 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,199 Speaker 1: facto running the world as well. And when the world 242 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: just basically was left to go to its own devices 243 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: like Lord of the flies under pressure, everybody went to 244 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: their own national interests, and essentially the world started to fragment, 245 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: and the order and the team that the United States 246 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: had been leading for several decades ever since the end 247 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: of World War two, fifth fully haltingly in different ways, 248 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: started to break up or stagnate. And the question now is, Okay, 249 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: there's a captain who's back in, you know, Dennis Robbins 250 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: come back from Las Vegas and his partying, and now 251 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: the bulls are ready to play, and something's actually gonna happen. 252 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: What's gonna happen? The world is watching to see if 253 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: the United States can regain its consciousness as a mature, 254 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: responsible government, both domestically and internationally. And so far they 255 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: don't necessarily like every single policy, and you're never gonna 256 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: find every single policy because a lot of different players 257 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: in the world. But so far, people are breathing a 258 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: sigh of relief that some of the craziness seems to 259 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: be over getting less phone in this fold in this 260 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: conversation to the vaccine rollout, do you think the vaccine 261 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: rollout of the last site three months or so is 262 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: bringing countries further together or pushing them further apart. Uh. Well, 263 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: I would say right now it's pushing them further apart, 264 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: because everyone's sort of vying to get the vaccines, and 265 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: it's a sort of crawling over each other to try 266 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: and get the vaccine on the line. So it's a 267 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: bigger type beg of the neighbor time situation. But over time, 268 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: as the vaccines actually kick in, as we start getting 269 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: something approaching her immunity down the road, as things as 270 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: the cooperate, as the circumstances in which cooperation can take hold, 271 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: after everybody is a little bit less scared, then you 272 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: have a government in charge now in the United States 273 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: that may be in a role to play the sort 274 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: of calm uh team leader bringing people back together after 275 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: the crisis. We're still in the depths of the crisis obviously, 276 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: and everybody is still completely freaked, and everybody is still 277 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: racing to try and get an immediate advantage. But as 278 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:23,359 Speaker 1: things get better over the course of one the opportunities 279 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: to focus on the upside rather than just getting out 280 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: of the media crisis and the down and and escaping 281 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: the immediate downsides might become more apparent. And I think 282 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: that and the payoffs and the Biden administration will start 283 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: to come more apparent. Help me, here were the agenda 284 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: of the president. The president is going to do a 285 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: road trip I assumed to Europe to you know, regreet 286 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: the allies, etcetera, meet the queen or whatever. And then 287 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: there has to be some kind of Asia swing. Is 288 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:54,479 Speaker 1: Beijing on the itinerary? You know the details of that? Uh? 289 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: Certainly the China relationship. The Biden administration understands it needs 290 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: to rebuild its alliances first, because the United States does 291 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: not play international politics as an individual. It plays as 292 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 1: a team leader. The Bush administrator, the Trump administration failed 293 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: to recognize that, and the rest of the team was going, 294 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: what's going on? Since you have been the leader of 295 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: a global alliance that has essentially run the entire world, 296 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: what are you talking about this only America thing. The 297 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 1: Biden administration, recognizing that it is team leader first and foremost, 298 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: has made mending its relations with its core allies the 299 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: first agenda item. But dealing with China and the U. S. 300 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: China relationship will clearly be the single greatest challenge over 301 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,959 Speaker 1: the course not just of the Biden administration for American 302 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,199 Speaker 1: farm policy, but for at least the next decade and 303 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: maybe the next generation or two of American farm policy. 304 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: And so the question is can the United States and 305 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: China manage their relationship which is clearly somewhat conflictual but 306 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: does not need to go to war? Can they manage 307 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: it that and keep it within tracks and on rails? 308 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: Getting no, what's great to catch up. Appreciate your time 309 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: this morning, sir. Thank you getting roads there of CFR. 310 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: Mandy zero joining us now on this market from Credit Space, 311 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 1: the chief equity derivative strategist. This market is grinding higher, 312 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 1: up another twenty one on the SNP and we've got 313 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: one on the US ten year Manny, just want me three. 314 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: You're thinking right now that relationship between the direction of 315 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: ten year yields and what happens with the broad directorting market. Yeah, hey, hey, 316 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: John um So. I think we've gotten a lot of 317 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: questions around inflation from investors in recent weeks, given the 318 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: movements and break events, and the point that I make 319 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: here that it's important differentiate like what we're talking about 320 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: when it comes to INFLATIONIP, are we talking about a 321 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: temporary overshoot of inflation this year due to reopening? Due 322 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: to all this you know demand that everyone's talking about, 323 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: or are we talking about a sustained increase sustained runaway inflationhip? Right? 324 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: I think the FED really cares about ladder. I think 325 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: it doesn't really care about the former, and I had 326 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,439 Speaker 1: not heard anyone makes a real credible case for the latter. 327 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: And I think in this case, when it comes to inflation, 328 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: it actually helps that Powell is not a trained economist 329 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: or doesn't have a formal economics training like yelling or burnanky, 330 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: because he's less weathered to economic theory that says, you know, 331 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: as unemployment comes down, inflation must rise. Right. I think 332 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: he's booking at the empirical data which shows him that 333 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 1: inflation is nowhere to be found in the developed world 334 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: of last twenty years. And as such, you know, the 335 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 1: SEID can be much more focused on its unemployment mandate 336 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: without lowering about inflation. So what does that mean for markets? 337 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be very very patient this year. 338 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know, even if we get a big 339 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: core CPC overshoot at some point this year due to reopening, 340 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: you know, sets able to stay very patient. And that's 341 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: positive for equities and positives for a lot of rotation 342 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: trades that we've already started to see that I think 343 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: ex for the room to run man help merror mortals 344 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: here on a Tuesday morning with the Greeks. You're the 345 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: derivatives said your credit sueez and the idea that you're 346 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: moving up. You're in play. But there are signposts where 347 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 1: enough is enough. One of the signals where you say 348 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: in the derivative market, enough is enough. Look, I think 349 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: people are rightly worried about I guess you know, you know, 350 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: the speed of the rally, how substainable it is, whether people, 351 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: you know, investors are too completion. So what I can 352 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: say is, at least on the derivatives market, positioning at 353 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: the index level is still very cautious. And I say this, 354 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: you know, with VIC still relatively elevated, even though markets 355 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 1: making all time high. And I say particularly if you 356 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: look at you know, the demand for protection as index level, 357 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 1: that is still very very ROBUSTO measures, skew measures of 358 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: tail risk in the SMP. You know, it's still near 359 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 1: the highs that we've seen over the past year. So 360 00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: at least in the index market is slow as that 361 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: we've seen, We're still seeing a lot of demands will protection. 362 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: A lot of downtime had just been put on, So 363 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: I don't see that kind of euphoria that um, you 364 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: know in the index level that you know, I do 365 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,479 Speaker 1: a single stock level, which is a totally different story. 366 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: But I would say at the index level, positioning is still, 367 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: you know, fairly cautious. Mandy, let's talk single stock, let's 368 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,719 Speaker 1: talk game stop and those hearings that Congress is going 369 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: to be having later this week. What's your sense in 370 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: terms of whether there is something improper that occurred with 371 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: the derivatives trading that you saw that you think they 372 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: will hone in on and perhaps target. Look, I think 373 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: takeaway here that this is much bigger than just one 374 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,199 Speaker 1: particular stock or you know, one particular segment. The bigger 375 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: impact from you know, the retail trading that we've seen 376 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: is that across broad swath of the market, we're seeing 377 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: a complete repricing of upside risk. So you know, the 378 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: game stop, the A m c s, you know, those 379 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 1: are tiny, right, but within the SMP top one hundred 380 00:21:56,240 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: large cap stock, thirty percent are now trading with inverted skew, 381 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 1: which is just a technical term saying that the upside 382 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: calls are now trading at a premium to be at 383 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: the money calls. That is very, very unusual. To put 384 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: that percentage in perspective, over the last ten years, that 385 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:17,120 Speaker 1: percentage historically has averages out six percent. Right, So now 386 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: we're thirty percent of the names trade with inverted skew 387 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: when traditionally has been up six percent. I think that's 388 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: the legacy, that's the impact from the retail option trading. 389 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: Where notice the retail consumer piece, it's typically buyers of 390 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 1: upside call options. And that's how we're seeing It's upside 391 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: call with the higher across you know, not just small caps, 392 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 1: not just the highly you know, shorter names, but we're 393 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: seeing it, you know, with the large cap tech names, 394 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: with the financials, with the energy across broad industries and inspectors. So, Mandy, 395 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: we got thirty seconds with you, so forgive me for 396 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:52,719 Speaker 1: pushing you on the time. You are much smarter than 397 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: put this into very simple terms for our audience this 398 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: morning that might not be familiar with these things. Yield up, 399 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: the equity market is up, and the VIX is up 400 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 1: this morning. Why just in very simple terms, why is 401 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 1: volatility up with the move was seeing high so I 402 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 1: would say, you know, the VIX is not just a 403 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 1: measure of motility. It also incorporates demand for putting calls. 404 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 1: All else equals, we're seeing more demands for obstacle that 405 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: could drive the VIC higher. That is one way in 406 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 1: which the VIX can go higher as the market is 407 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: going higher. It's driven by demands for this called Mandy. 408 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: Thank you. I appreciate that Mandy say that of credits waste. 409 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 410 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: listen on Apple Podcasts, sound Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, or 411 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. You can also listen worldwide 412 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on Bloomberg Television.