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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: De'l done it with.

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Speaker 3: Us right now with the Renanck here on the cp I.

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Speaker 3: Hear he's had one minute in fifty one seconds to

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Speaker 3: digest s. Yes, I'm sorry, Neil Duda, but it does

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Speaker 3: go to not only year over year coming in a

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Speaker 3: bit on core, but month over month. Dare I say, Neil,

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Speaker 3: you nailed this.

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Speaker 4: You can say that. Thank you, Tom I am. You

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Speaker 4: know you know we're still going We're still going through it.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I think our off rule of thumb

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Speaker 4: is you basically take core CPI and cut a tenth

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Speaker 4: off of it, and that kind of sets the table

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Speaker 4: for core PCE.

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Speaker 3: So can you model core PC under three percent into

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, it looks like we're doing that the

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Speaker 4: last couple of months. I think what matters right now

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Speaker 4: isn't so much is inflation cooperating, because I think there's

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Speaker 4: a very strong sort of fundamental case to make for

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Speaker 4: why inflation should cooperate. The issue is whether the Fed's

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Speaker 4: going to play along, right, I mean, if you look

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Speaker 4: at where the FED is and how they shift it

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Speaker 4: from the September FOMC to the December FOMC. In September,

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Speaker 4: they thought the risk to the unemployment rate reskewed to

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Speaker 4: the upside, and they thought that the risks to inflation

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Speaker 4: were basically balanced. In December, despite very modest you know,

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Speaker 4: I would argue modest movements in the data, they completely

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Speaker 4: flipped right, So now they see sixty an upside risk

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Speaker 4: to inflation, and they see balance risks to the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's important because it opens the risk

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Speaker 4: of a passive tightening of monetary policy. Like, just because

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Speaker 4: the inflation data have cooperated, does that mean the Fed's

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Speaker 4: going to start cutting in March. No, because they want

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Speaker 4: to wait and see to see what happens at the

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Speaker 4: end the other end of Washington, DC. And so you know,

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Speaker 4: I think there's a risk here where you continue to

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Speaker 4: see kind of slowing nominal growth and the FED kind

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Speaker 4: of sitting back and waiting, and obviously that passive tightening

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Speaker 4: of monetary policy could put additional pressure on the economy.

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Speaker 5: Now, what's your sense of how long it's going to

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Speaker 5: take to get that kind of clarity for the Fed

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Speaker 5: to get that kind of clarity of what's happening down

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Speaker 5: Pennsylvania Avenue from the Echos Building.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're fumbling.

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Speaker 5: We're fumbling here trying to figure out how soon we'll

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Speaker 5: get it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, David, you need to ask a political analyst,

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Speaker 4: not me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think.

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Speaker 4: And it's also about the sequencing of policy, right, I mean,

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Speaker 4: there's there was clearly a and the fedce tone from

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Speaker 4: November to December. In November, the day after the ear

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Speaker 4: happened to reckon with this.

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Speaker 5: Finally, what might happen?

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Speaker 4: I mean, we need to see whether the administration kicks

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Speaker 4: off policy with a round of tariffs.

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Speaker 2: I mean, frankly, okay, that's right, you know now I

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Speaker 2: want to stay with the old Doddy here. Ben Layler's waiting.

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Speaker 3: Laidler said he's not coming on until the Dow's up

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Speaker 3: six hundred points.

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Speaker 2: We're not there yet.

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Speaker 3: The Dow up five hundred and forty two points, SPX

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Speaker 3: up eighty one points, We're up about one point three percent,

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Speaker 3: Nasdaq up one point seven percent small caps. Good morning,

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Speaker 3: Robert Teeter nailing that up two point six percent on

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Speaker 3: the Russell. As Lisa mentioned, the yields come in, the

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Speaker 3: real yield comes in from a two point thirty launches

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Speaker 3: two thirty three launches to two point two five percent.

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Speaker 3: As well, we're going to get to Ben Ladler and

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Speaker 3: free of beabersh. We are commercial free across the nation

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Speaker 3: in this hour. Good morning on the Pacific RIM evening

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Speaker 3: as well. Out on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Neil DUDDA,

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Speaker 3: let's talk about this, and it's delicate. Don't give me,

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Speaker 3: you know, William McChesney, Martin LBJ in Vietnam. I'm sorry

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Speaker 3: the FED is affected by politics. How will the FED

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Speaker 3: be affected nine days after the inauguration.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think they're going to be in it. I mean,

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Speaker 4: we already know they've put in some kind of conditional

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Speaker 4: estimates for well many of them have for for tariffs,

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe deportations, in a new immigration policy, and

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Speaker 4: potentially fiscal reflation. So I think you know, look, I

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Speaker 4: mean to the extent that policymakers you know, in Congress

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Speaker 4: are sounding optimistic about something getting done, I think the

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Speaker 4: FED is going to be in a wait and see

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Speaker 4: approach at least until then to see what the details

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Speaker 4: of that legislation will ultimately be. And you know, there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of obviously uncertainty are on what what the

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Speaker 4: what the president might do. And you know, I do

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Speaker 4: think the sequence is sequencing is important. And if he

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Speaker 4: kicks off with a round of tariffs, I mean I

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Speaker 4: think the Fed's likely not going to be in a

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Speaker 4: forgiving mood with that. I mean, this isn't like twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, where the Fed ultimately kind of delt the

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Speaker 4: market and eased, right. I mean, this is We're coming

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Speaker 4: off a period of very, very high inflation, so the

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Speaker 4: Fed is going to be concerned about inflation expectations and

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Speaker 4: what twists might do to that.

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Speaker 3: Neil Dutta, thank you so much. We just got up

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Speaker 3: to it's with Renmac, I should say, Neil Dutta. Just

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Speaker 3: incredible workout on LinkedIn as well.

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Speaker 2: Folks.

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Speaker 3: We got up to five hundred and eighty points up

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Speaker 3: on the Dow, so now we're going to go twenty

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Speaker 3: points early on ben laydlor.

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Speaker 2: Generous view right now.

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Speaker 3: Accept Benjamin Laidler more than anyone I know, got out

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Speaker 3: front of the pre pandemic bull market and more than

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Speaker 3: anyone I know, even your Denny and Kompora, Brian Belski

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Speaker 3: at BEMO Stolfus over at OpCo.

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Speaker 2: Ben Laylor was out early.

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Speaker 3: Saying this is an extended bullmarket. Ben over in London,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us this morning with

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Speaker 3: bradesco Bb.

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Speaker 2: I Ben on a baseball analogy. What inning are we in? What? What?

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Speaker 2: How's the length of the bull market going?

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Speaker 6: So?

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Speaker 3: What?

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Speaker 6: Games?

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Speaker 7: That very much over here, so I listen. We've just

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Speaker 7: I think I had a little bit of relief right now.

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Speaker 7: Markets sort of, you know, getting themselves in a bit

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Speaker 7: of a tizzy that we were having a sort of

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Speaker 7: a bit of a bond shock, that the Fed was

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Speaker 7: you know, not helping supporting us anymore, that inflation was

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Speaker 7: going to back up again. I think you know this,

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Speaker 7: this number now has just given us all a little bit.

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Speaker 6: Of pause for relaxation and.

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Speaker 7: Maybe allows us to refocus a little bit on There's

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Speaker 7: a lot of other stuff going on.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 7: Earning season is just off to what looks like a

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Speaker 7: pretty good start, and it looks like we're gonna get

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Speaker 7: double digit earnings growth. Which you know, let's not forget,

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Speaker 7: I think is the core foundation of this bull market.

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Speaker 6: And we're looking forward to the Trump inauguration on Monday, where.

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Speaker 7: I suspect, you know, the market braced for tariffs is

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Speaker 7: maybe not going to get you know, what it was

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Speaker 7: maybe priced for in.

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Speaker 3: Your study if we get level or dare I say,

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Speaker 3: gloom higher ten year yields, Ben Ladler.

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Speaker 2: Corporations are just in adapt to that, don't they.

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Speaker 7: Yes, I think so, you know, it's not good news.

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Speaker 7: You know, higher bond yields in the US basically mean

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Speaker 7: two things. It puts some pressure on valuations because US

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Speaker 7: corporates have big valuations and a lot of that value

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Speaker 7: is very far in the future, so quite sensitive to

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Speaker 7: higher bond yields.

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Speaker 6: One and two.

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Speaker 7: About a thirty US corporate earnings come from overseas, and

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Speaker 7: those earnings come under sort of some pressure with you know,

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Speaker 7: a stronger dollar, which comes with high bond yilds.

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Speaker 6: So those are the two negatives. But you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 7: You know, corporates have been deleveraging, corporates have very higher margins.

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Speaker 6: Corporates, you know, the one thing we've learned.

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Speaker 7: In the last few years, it's how adaptable US US

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Speaker 7: corporates are. So you know, I'll take it as a

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Speaker 7: moderate negative. I bon yields are sort of moving higher.

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Speaker 7: But A, I think corporates are able to adapt. And

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Speaker 7: B that's also remember why bond yields are moving up.

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Speaker 7: Or you know, one of the big reasons is the

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Speaker 7: economy is doing very well. This economy is on track

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Speaker 7: to grow, you know, nearly three percent. That's why earnings

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Speaker 7: to growing growing double digit And as I say this,

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Speaker 7: the broadening of this and the continuance of this is

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Speaker 7: the core support of this continued ball market.

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Speaker 5: So you pick this apart. I mean looking at energy,

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Speaker 5: I mean that's really the culprit here, Tom, when you

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Speaker 5: look at CPN where you do see that sort of

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Speaker 5: inflationary force are ben Let me and you mentioned just

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Speaker 5: a moment ago taking a pause for relaxation and reflection.

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Speaker 5: How long is that pause likely to last? How do

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Speaker 5: you navigate this period when you can exhale for a

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Speaker 5: short moment at.

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Speaker 7: Least maybe till Monday. No, in all serious, just you know,

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Speaker 7: there's a lot of cross currents here. You know, we're

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Speaker 7: feeding our way through you know, we're just kicking off

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Speaker 7: earning season. It's a pretty big earning season. We're looking

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Speaker 7: for this rebalancing, you know, away from big tech, which

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Speaker 7: has done all the heavy lifting, you know, towards everybody else.

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Speaker 7: If that happens, I think that is, you know, fundamentally

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Speaker 7: very bullish. We've got to get through the Trump you know,

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Speaker 7: inaugurations a lot of uncertainty as to what you know

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Speaker 7: that's going to mean.

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Speaker 6: But again, I think.

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Speaker 7: Markets are sort of braced, at least partly priced, you know,

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Speaker 7: some of some of that. And and again you know

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Speaker 7: my early comment, I take these higher bond yields a

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Speaker 7: little bit in my stride because A I don't think

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Speaker 7: they're really signaling a dramatic researchence inflation, and B I

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Speaker 7: think they're a function of the fact that the economy

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Speaker 7: is in is in a pretty good place. And if

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Speaker 7: we did get a little message today that maybe this

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Speaker 7: is a story of inflation stabilizing rather than anything more

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Speaker 7: sinister happening than I think that's all good news.

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Speaker 3: Is there an opportunity, ben Ladlor in United Kingdom stacks?

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Speaker 2: I mean, they got a government in an.

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Speaker 3: Uproar full disclosure, folks.

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Speaker 2: I can't keep track of it. I try to read

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Speaker 2: about it.

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Speaker 5: I have a company I have occupying tea.

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Speaker 3: Ben Laylor, do you drink coffee or tea?

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Speaker 6: I have to be a tea drinker.

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Speaker 2: Just it's like brown water. I don't get it. Ben.

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Speaker 3: Is there an opportunity in arbitrage almost within the United Kingdom?

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Speaker 3: Given all the political and cable gloom.

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Speaker 7: I would actually broaden this. I think it's US versus

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Speaker 7: the rest of the world at this point. I mean,

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Speaker 7: we we've talked a lot about sort of US exceptionalism,

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Speaker 7: and I think that continues to sort of push ahead

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Speaker 7: here and the rest of the world has just got

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Speaker 7: very small, very cheap, and with you know, higher US

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Speaker 7: bond yields, which is the highest free rate, a stronger

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Speaker 7: dollar just you know, is pigly more misery on. And

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Speaker 7: I think that story probably remains in place, at least

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Speaker 7: in the very short term. But I think as we

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Speaker 7: look further out, the opportunity is in the rest of

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Speaker 7: the world. This US exceptionalism more ultimately fade, or maybe

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Speaker 7: this bull market will broaden and I think will be

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Speaker 7: absolutely fine. But I think the real opportunity maybe later

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Speaker 7: in the year, once the dollar stabilizes, once bondy old

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Speaker 7: stabilizes this bull market begins to broaden. It's going to

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Speaker 7: be in these thirty forty fifty valuation discounts that you

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Speaker 7: that you have in the rest of the world, including

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Speaker 7: the UK right now.

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Speaker 5: Ben, what is going to be the catalyst for the broadening,

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Speaker 5: the growing of breadth that you're talking about there as

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Speaker 5: you see in.

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Speaker 6: So I think there's two.

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Speaker 7: So I think one, you know, within the US, which

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Speaker 7: I think will bleed globally, is just tech earnings beginning

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Speaker 7: to spread out to the rest of the market. And

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Speaker 7: I think we're going to see you know another, We're

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Speaker 7: going to see that some of that this you.

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Speaker 6: Know this this quarter.

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Speaker 7: And I think secondly, you know, more globally, it's going

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Speaker 7: to be maybe a little bit of relief starting on Monday,

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Speaker 7: if we don't see you know, full ball tariffs on

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Speaker 7: day one, and along with that, maybe a stabilization of

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Speaker 7: the dollar. Who had this massive dollar rally, Some stabilization

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Speaker 7: of the dollar, some relief on tariffs. I think that

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Speaker 7: opens the door to the rest of the world to

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Speaker 7: get a bit of relief. And remember, a little bit

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Speaker 7: of love goes a very very long way in the

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Speaker 7: rest of the world because it's got so cheap, so small.

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Speaker 2: David, we called it right. Laylor came out with Dow.

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Speaker 3: Futures of five eighty push and they're now up six

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Speaker 3: forty four.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Laylor's rock in the bull market. Ben Laylor,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much. With rescal Bbi.

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Speaker 6: In then.

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Speaker 3: Christmas Eve twenty eighteen, he and I are opening presents

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Speaker 3: and he's like, Tom up, Yeah, nailed it. He's at

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Speaker 3: HSBC at the time. It was a great, great Christmas.

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Speaker 3: This is I got, I got ducky bumps, I got

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Speaker 3: Neil Dutta.

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Speaker 2: I go to Ben Laylor.

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Speaker 5: It's a technical term.

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Speaker 2: It is it's CFA and.

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Speaker 3: Cause that FREEA beamish chief economist at TS Lombard and yeah,

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Speaker 3: we can do inflation. And the market's up like a moonshot,

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Speaker 3: up one point five percent free. The gloom out there

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Speaker 3: is OMG, China is going to fall into the Pacific Ocean.

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Speaker 3: You're expert at this is a big underestimation for twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five that China will right the ship, China will

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Speaker 3: heal and will move forward constructively.

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Speaker 8: I think there's a lot of sort of sequencing that

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Speaker 8: we can derive something useful from this stage in terms

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Speaker 8: of the legislative agenda in China, and actually also in

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Speaker 8: terms of of the US as well. I think with

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Speaker 8: China they're sort of at the stage where they're having

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Speaker 8: to jawbone a lot, and markets just don't like that. Understandably.

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Speaker 8: They've said all of the sort of the good news,

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Speaker 8: but they haven't given us the numbers. But because of

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Speaker 8: the the new administration coming in in the US and

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Speaker 8: because everything is on the table, like we call this

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Speaker 8: a trade deal, but it's not. It's not a trade deal,

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Speaker 8: it's an everything deal. Fiscal policy is on the table,

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Speaker 8: so that has to that that has to be a

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Speaker 8: part of the negotiation process in the relationship between the

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Speaker 8: US and China, and at the same time, the tariff

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Speaker 8: story from the US they have to sort of come

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Speaker 8: in big. But at the same time, when they get

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Speaker 8: to negotiating with China, I think that fiscal policy that

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Speaker 8: we're all waiting for is a part of that negotiation process,

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Speaker 8: so that China can't fire too soon on that. In

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Speaker 8: addition to the fact that they do have their own

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Speaker 8: kind of legislative agenda that has to be sort of

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Speaker 8: worked through. So from that perspective, I think there could

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Speaker 8: still be some good of good news in the pipeline,

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Speaker 8: specifically with regards to redirecting towards consumer orientated fiscal policy

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Speaker 8: as opposed to just this let's use excess supply to

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Speaker 8: solve problems of excess supply, which was always going to

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Speaker 8: be deflationary, always going to crush returns in China and

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Speaker 8: just has been proven not to be working very well.

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Speaker 8: I don't think the real economy is going to turn

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Speaker 8: round very quickly, but we could in terms of the

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Speaker 8: news pipeline, finally get some numbers that could could help

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Speaker 8: things out.

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Speaker 5: Forgure, what are these conversations, this dialogue look like. And

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Speaker 5: I'm not talking about what the scene is going to

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Speaker 5: be like at the Diotie guest house. For if there's

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Speaker 5: going to be that long table with twelve people on

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Speaker 5: one side and twelve on the other and you know,

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Speaker 5: thirty feet between them as they as they can with

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Speaker 5: this out, is this going to be a constructive negotiation

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Speaker 5: as you see it looking at sort of the way

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Speaker 5: that China responds to whatever this president elect puts in

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Speaker 5: place when he gets back to the White House.

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Speaker 8: I guess the worry is that the big difference this

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Speaker 8: time around is that for a significant proportion of the

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Speaker 8: incoming administration in the US, these tariffs are supposed to

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Speaker 8: be used for fiscal revenues and to actually sort of

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Speaker 8: get past the bird rawl in the US legislative process,

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Speaker 8: then they sort of have to figure in some way

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Speaker 8: unless there's some real significant high jinks up the sleeves,

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Speaker 8: which is also possible, but that means that they have

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Speaker 8: to sort of come in swinging. From that perspective, and

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Speaker 8: also from a negotiation perspective, they have to sort of

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Speaker 8: come in swinging. When we hear the word kind of gradual,

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Speaker 8: and the gradual is supposed to mean that tariffs are

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Speaker 8: phased in from two to five percent per month, that

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Speaker 8: makes me think, wow, that doesn't sound very gradual to me.

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Speaker 8: So it has to kind of come in swinging, I

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Speaker 8: think from the US perspective. But looking to the sort

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Speaker 8: of a twelvemonth horizon and what could really change here,

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Speaker 8: I think this could be on the table. There could

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Speaker 8: be a really fundamental shift with regards to the international

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Speaker 8: monetary system, with regards to the incentives that these surplus

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Speaker 8: nations are from offered to really change the way in

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Speaker 8: which they organize their economy and restructure demand to the

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Speaker 8: benefit of reducing global that imbalances well.

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Speaker 3: Ts Lombard their foreign exchange strategies, free of beamishes with

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Speaker 3: us this morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm kidding free And.

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Speaker 3: What that devolves down to an economics and investment is

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Speaker 3: we look at the litmus paper of the system. Free,

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Speaker 3: I'm busting your chops. But the answer is you're expert

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Speaker 3: at this. I mean, if you look at the dollar

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Speaker 3: in all the different currency pairs, is the proxy of

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Speaker 3: a readjustment of the international system.

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Speaker 2: What does ts.

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Speaker 3: Lombard, with all the heritage of Charles Duma, what does

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Speaker 3: ts Lombard suggest dollar, or for that matter, what Sterling

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Speaker 3: will do?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean with It's hard to see on the

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Speaker 8: face of it, how you can escape the strong dollar

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Speaker 8: with this kind of idea of US exceptionalism, everything they

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Speaker 8: do seems to like tilt the balance more in favor

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Speaker 8: of the dollar. And yet when you hear someone like JD.

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Speaker 8: Vance talking to power in questioning, he asks, and am paraphrasing,

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Speaker 8: what has been the effect of the US dollar and

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Speaker 8: its status as a reserve currency on the people of

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Speaker 8: my of my constituency, on my on my electorate, on

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Speaker 8: the middle income section of the of the distribution, and

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Speaker 8: the implication is that he thinks it has not been

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Speaker 8: a beneficial standpoint. And if you go back to when

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Speaker 8: these this this current international system has its roots in

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Speaker 8: the I m F in the forties. It was the

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Speaker 8: UK that was the deficit nation at that point and

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Speaker 8: the US that was the surplus nation. The UK or

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Speaker 8: the UK proposal from Knes was to was to punish

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Speaker 8: the surplus countries by by enacting interest on the balances

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Speaker 8: proportional to those to those surplus balances in what was

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Speaker 8: called the bank or plan. That was never going to

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Speaker 8: work because the US was not beholden to the UK

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Speaker 8: in any way because it was a gold system, not

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Speaker 8: a sterling system, whereas China at this stage, which is

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Speaker 8: the surplus nation, is beholden to the US because it

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Speaker 8: has to hold the dollars so it cannot hurt the

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Speaker 8: US without hurting itself. And that means despite the fact

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Speaker 8: that these are not allies and the likelihood of them

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Speaker 8: sitting down and talking seems very remote, there is a

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Speaker 8: path there to some kind of an international system that

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Speaker 8: avoids the tariffs, which China also very much wants to

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Speaker 8: avoid because they're so dependent on exports.

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Speaker 2: Ye free, Thank you so much. Free you beamish ts Lombird.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten Amstern. Listen on Applecarplay

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Speaker 1: and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: This is an honor, folks, and I'm not going to

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Speaker 3: go into the new share earnings. It's totally unfair to

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Speaker 3: our esteemed guests. Allison Williams has been looking at bank

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Speaker 3: earnings since Jackson turned America upside down. She is taking

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Speaker 3: on new duties this year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I've had three people email in. Is Alison going

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Speaker 2: to continue to follow the big banks? Yes she is.

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Speaker 3: She's got like a staff of twelve to do that.

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Speaker 3: But she's also going to be had a global strategy

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Speaker 3: for Bloomberg Intelligence worldwide, which is a huge, huge position involved.

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Speaker 3: She's got frequent flyer miles. Nobody I know, Allison. I

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Speaker 3: got Golden Sex rolling out. It's going from a five

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Speaker 3: seventy one up to five eighty one. Are these banks

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Speaker 3: hiding how profitable they are? I look at JP Morgan,

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Speaker 3: I look at Blackrock today with the assets coming in

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Speaker 3: under management, is a basic strategy or are they all

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Speaker 3: playing down how damn profitable they are.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think the banks are shining today. The

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Speaker 9: numbers are good, and what's positive is really the net

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Speaker 9: interest income guidance and the cost guidance. Those are two

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Speaker 9: of the key things investors are focusing on both. Look

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Speaker 9: at you know, JP Morgan guiding higher, higher net interest income.

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Speaker 9: You know, costs a little bit higher, but you know

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Speaker 9: net net positive. Wells Fargo's numbers also looking better. The

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Speaker 9: positive on Wells Fargo, you know, continuing to sort of

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Speaker 9: move past these regulatory relationships. They damp the fourth order.

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Speaker 2: In your world?

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Speaker 3: Do you put your radar up when mister Solomon wants

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Speaker 3: to get into private credit and you know JP Morgan's.

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Speaker 5: Because everybody's doing it time.

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Speaker 3: We need private equity, we need privateket Alson Williams, Been there,

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Speaker 3: done that?

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Speaker 2: Have we seen this before?

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think the positive thing, right, I mean

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Speaker 9: it's positive for bank investors is that it's they're doing

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Speaker 9: it with other people's money. So I think that the risk,

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Speaker 9: the risk, the risk in the past, right was that

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Speaker 9: they were investing their money, you know, vocal change that

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Speaker 9: and you know Goldman has had so much, so much

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Speaker 9: money invested that they've really taken a really long time

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Speaker 9: to unwind it. But I think they are using their expertise.

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Speaker 9: They years ago said we're going to use our expertise.

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Speaker 9: We're going to manage other people's money.

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Speaker 2: We're going to earn.

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Speaker 9: Fees, and investors like that. They like fees unmanaged assets

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Speaker 9: as opposed to banks investing their own money. Regulators like that.

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Speaker 9: But you know, it has been has been a shift

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Speaker 9: in terms of the amount of credit that used to

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Speaker 9: be at the banks that's now managed. I mean black

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Speaker 9: Rock this morning eleven point six trillion with the tea.

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Speaker 6: I mean that is.

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Speaker 9: Crazy, really amazing, folks.

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Speaker 3: I'm David Scott, a jump in here. The bitcoin part

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Speaker 3: of Blackrock was tenC wheat Sea compared to everything else.

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Speaker 5: You say the banks are shining this morning. We have

441
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 5: seen a fresh smile on a lot of these bankers

442
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 5: as well since since the action of last year. As

443
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 5: you look ahead to what the expectations are for twenty

444
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 5: twenty five, for later this year, how much of that

445
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 5: hinges on this expectation that the regulatory landscape is going

446
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 5: to be radically different. All the talk of mister Barrett,

447
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,719
Speaker 5: the Fed Reserve is going to fade into the background.

448
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,199
Speaker 5: All the concern about new capital requirements are going to

449
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 5: go away. How much has this sort of pinned on

450
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 5: those hopes?

451
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 9: I mean so for sure that has driven the bank

452
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 9: their rally in.

453
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 5: Banks, that ineffable optimism, that that optimism.

454
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 9: And you know, and it's interesting Wells Fargo in particular,

455
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 9: which has strongly rallied. We know they have this asset cap.

456
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 9: It's been in place for many, many years. It's unprecedented,

457
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 9: so it just keeps getting.

458
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 4: Longer and longer.

459
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 9: But you know, for that specific issue, we would point

460
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 9: out that that that that's not a political issue. You know,

461
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 9: they have things that they need to deliver and they

462
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 9: will continue to work on that plan. But in general,

463
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 9: the banks are excited. You know, So the banks are excited.

464
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,479
Speaker 5: Have you been in the new JP Morgan buildings not

465
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 5: open yet?

466
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 9: The old building recently, but not the new one.

467
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 3: I want to mention this because this is different. Wells

468
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 3: Fargo is up three percent SI, thank you. Wells Fargo's

469
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 3: up more on a percentage basis today than JP Morgan

470
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 3: in uh, Golden Sex usually, David, we don't see that

471
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 3: is Allison.

472
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 9: All you know, and it's all about the expectations, right.

473
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 9: So it is you know, the strength of the quarter.

474
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 9: I mean, JP Morgan is still leading the way with returns,

475
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 9: but wells Fargo, I mean this is really you know

476
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 9: that interest income has been a big disappointment. Expenses have

477
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 9: been a big disappointment, and I think the guiding is

478
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 9: looking forward, especially since their management has tended to be

479
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,479
Speaker 9: conservative JP Morgan. You know, they had already given their

480
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 9: guidance for twenty twenty five, which which was positive. We

481
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 9: did expect a tweak. We got that, but but as

482
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 9: I said, a good set.

483
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 3: Of Do we have Allison later in the morning or

484
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: is this her only desisiance?

485
00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 2: Did you talk to her people?

486
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 5: This is it want and done, which we tried to

487
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 5: get you yesterday, and that was because we got this

488
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 5: news out of out of JP Morgan. What would you

489
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 5: What did you make of the shuffling of chairs, the

490
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 5: departure of mister Pinto yesterday? What does that tell you

491
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 5: about them? The direction of this bank post Diamond. Whenever

492
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 5: that happened, I think it.

493
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 9: Wasn't totally unexpected. I mean, Dan Pinto is sort of

494
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 9: the person in place, you know, he announces retirement I

495
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 9: mean that the twist was that Jen got put in

496
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 9: the COO position. So the immediate knee jerk response was okay,

497
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 9: so she is the new era parent and immediately, but

498
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 9: she did say not at this time. So that's that's important.

499
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 9: And it just may be that, you know, Jamie Diamond,

500
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 9: this bank has built an amazing culture. They've created so

501
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 9: many amazing leaders. They have a strong bench, and they

502
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 9: may just want it to keep people speculating. It could

503
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 9: be any one of these, any one of these leaders.

504
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 9: It could be Jenn, It could be Marianne Petna just

505
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 9: got a nice promotion. It could be Troy.

506
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: It could be I got I got eight ways to

507
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 3: go here in the time left, but we got.

508
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: To go there.

509
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 3: Over the last ten years, folks, JP Morgan has grown

510
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 3: a triple nominal GDP, Golden Sachs has grown an almost

511
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 3: triple nominal GDP. City Group is not They've grown it

512
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 3: roughly nominal GDP. I got City Group side tells me

513
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: I can read it her, Folks, it's the only way

514
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 3: I know. Eight o'clock City Group. How's Jane doing?

515
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 9: I you know, I think Jane is getting it done.

516
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 9: You know, City Group, as we know you know, back

517
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 9: in Sandy Wild's day, you know, he built this market everything,

518
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 9: and then they've been selling, selling, selling ever since. Corbatt

519
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 9: did come in and do some downsiding, downsizing. Jane has

520
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 9: come in and she's done more. We're gonna look to

521
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 9: see if there's an updates. They're spelling spinning off their

522
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 9: business in Mexico so that that's going to be a

523
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 9: big sale that will take place later this year. And

524
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 9: it's just it's been a slog. It's a slog for them.

525
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 9: They also have some regulatory issues we've talked about that.

526
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 9: We'll be looking for their expense guide.

527
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 3: Now that we're doing global strategy, so we're not going

528
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: to be able to talk to you in about you know,

529
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: ninety days, Allison Williams. If JP Morgan's doing three times

530
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: nominal GDP shareholder return over the last decade, Ale Paul

531
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 3: Krugman a week ago. Are we seeing a concentration of

532
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 3: capital as pre two thousand and seven?

533
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 9: I mean it is interesting because coming out of the crisis,

534
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 9: right that we have these systemic buffers, higher capital charges.

535
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 9: JP Morgan faces, you know, higher capital charges than their peers,

536
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 9: and they've continued to get bigger part of that has

537
00:26:54,920 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 9: been the global markets landscape, right. It's interesting to see

538
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 9: what's happening over in Europe. With the US, peers have

539
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 9: gotten bigger and bigger. Europe has not, except for UBS

540
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 9: that that acquired Credit Suite. I don't think anyone expected

541
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 9: Jesips to merge. But I think, you know, I think

542
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 9: what we mean, what Europe needs is a cross border deal.

543
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 9: And it's just so difficult. It's just it's just difficult,

544
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 9: and the politics of it, it's tough.

545
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 6: It's tough.

546
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: We're out of time. Congratulations, seriously, Position. You should see

547
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 3: your staff.

548
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 9: I've got an amazing staff.

549
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 2: Headquarters.

550
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 9: Robbie, Robbie Schlur behind the scenes. He's feeding me all

551
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 9: the numbers.

552
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 2: Okay, Elsie Williams, thank you so much for Bloomberg Intelligence.

553
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: Here.

554
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

555
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: starting at seven a m. Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and

556
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 1: Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

557
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

558
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

559
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: This has been hugely anticipated. Oil Petroleum moved the other day,

560
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 3: so much. When Jave Bloss was on, we could barely

561
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 3: talk about what are called the softs, which the commodities

562
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 3: away from oil, the commodities away from minerals, industrials, and

563
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 3: that ConA Haik is an expert, She's an EDNF man

564
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 3: and joins us. Now ConA Coffee's a triple off of COVID,

565
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 3: up one hundred percent and then up another one hundred percent,

566
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 3: up two hundred percent since early two thousand.

567
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 2: Is it just drought?

568
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: Is the drought of the California fires no different than

569
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: the drought of Vietnam and the drought of Brazil and Columbia.

570
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 10: Well, yes, I guess in the sense perhaps it is

571
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 10: all down to climate change, the fact that the extremity

572
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 10: of it, the fact that it's so severe and so

573
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 10: long lasting. I mean, Brazil's draught was certainly one in

574
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 10: a fifty year event, and I think Vietnam also had

575
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 10: an extreme drought, and California you can see what you

576
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 10: can see. I guess it's terrible. But yeah, the impacts

577
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 10: on a commodity like coffee, which is so vulnerable to

578
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 10: climate change and in particular variations in temperature, can really

579
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,239
Speaker 10: impact their yields and yeah, it just didn't recover. So

580
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 10: the Brazilian crop is going to be small. This is

581
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 10: on top of a Vietnamese crop which is also smaller

582
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 10: than it should have been. And we're what we're facing

583
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 10: with is a fifth consecutive global supply demand deficit for coffee.

584
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 10: And I think this is what price are telling you,

585
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 10: that something's got to give. You cannot kill demand fast enough,

586
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 10: You cannot gross recover supply fast enough. And some rice

587
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:42,239
Speaker 10: a going up?

588
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 2: Are you going to give up your marginal? Are we

589
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: going to substitute in the tea?

590
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 5: No?

591
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: Do you drink coffee corner tea?

592
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 10: I am a tea drinker.

593
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: I must have make that water. Good morning, Conna.

594
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 5: In the pre dawna hour is I'm fumbling around. I

595
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 5: pick up the Financial Times this morning. There's a headline

596
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 5: that China commodity supercycle is over? Will there be another?

597
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 5: Just an incredible deep dive into the conclusion of that

598
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 5: of that supercycle? Of course, pin so heavily on on steel.

599
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 5: What's your answer to that that rhetorical question in the

600
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 5: headline there will there be another one? And has the

601
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 5: outlook changed measurably?

602
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 4: Yeah?

603
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 10: I agree, I don't think there's going to be another one.

604
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 10: It was a big one. China single handly lifted all

605
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 10: commodities since the mid two thousands and for a good

606
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 10: ten to fifteen years. The commodities enjoyed it, but nothing

607
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 10: lost forever. China's maturing. You know, it's got past the

608
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 10: very industry heavy, manufacturing heavy phase of development. It's now

609
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 10: going to focus on consumption and domestic demand, not necessarily

610
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 10: investment led export lead. You know, China can no longer

611
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 10: be the factory of the world. It's got its own needs.

612
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 10: It's developed its airports, it developed its cars and factories.

613
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 10: So now it's more about the higher level service type economy.

614
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 10: And yes, that is unfortunately less commodity intensive, so you're

615
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 10: not going to see much of demand to the extent

616
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 10: that you saw before, but you might start seeing different

617
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 10: kinds of commodities and consume, you know, the higher value stuff,

618
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 10: so maybe like the coffee we just talked about before.

619
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 10: That's where they're moving towards. But no, the industry side

620
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 10: of things, I think metals and iron ore definitely, that

621
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 10: phases over. And the housing sector tells you all of that.

622
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 10: The property sector has been in a real rut for

623
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 10: the last three years and they just can't kickstart it.

624
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 10: Described record low interest rates, so it's not happening again,

625
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 10: and we have to wait for another reason, maybe Afriget

626
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 10: some point for the next big boom.

627
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 5: I would love to ask you about US trade policy,

628
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 5: tariffs policy. Of course you're waiting for clarity on what

629
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 5: that might look like in detail, But when you overlay

630
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 5: that onto your world, under the commodities world, how much

631
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 5: does does that map stand to change remarkably as a

632
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 5: result of whatever tariffs are put in place by this

633
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 5: president elect.

634
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's something that we're all watching very clearly and closely.

635
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 10: So I mean, just look at just look what happened

636
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 10: very recently in oil, right, the fact that you've been

637
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 10: put okay, it's not tire fted sanctions, but the fact

638
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,959
Speaker 10: that you've got sanctions on Russian oil is now causing

639
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 10: oil prices to get back to the eighty dollars level

640
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,719
Speaker 10: and a real movement across oil tankers and shifts.

641
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 6: You know.

642
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 10: So the Saudis, China would used to be able to

643
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 10: get it from Russia. Now they're going to have to

644
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 10: source their oil from Saudi and the Middle East. There's

645
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 10: going to be more of that. If SNeW beans gets targeted.

646
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 10: You know, if the US, if China the retaliates says okay,

647
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 10: I'm not going to take US soy beans because of

648
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 10: the tariffs, then maybe they have to go to Brazil.

649
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 10: So you know, there are lots of movements and moving

650
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 10: parts that needs to be watched, and then who can

651
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 10: fill the gap? I think what's the interesting thing as

652
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 10: a try commodity trade. That's what we look to see.

653
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 3: Conna get thirty seconds I see olive oil. Javia emails

654
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: in from London and says, ask her about olive oil.

655
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: I got olive oil in Spain down forty nine percent.

656
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: Can the same thing happen with coffee, orange juice, coco,

657
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 3: the others that are extended.

658
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 10: For coffee, not anytime soon. Maybe next year when you

659
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 10: start seeing a crop in Brazil, pick up massively coco,

660
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 10: for it's so extended it's possible. But again not anytime

661
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 10: in the first six months. Eventually, Okay, everything has to come.

662
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: ConA, please try coffee today. I beg you try a

663
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: cup of coffee. ConA Hays with D and F Man

664
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: right now. Next time she's on, we're asking her to

665
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 3: try Senka.

666
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

667
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

668
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also watch us

669
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

670
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 3: Kid Morning Everyone, the daily look at the front pages,

671
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 3: the Lisa Mateo moment.

672
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 2: Lisa, what do you have today?

673
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 11: All right, congestion pricing. We've been talking about it all

674
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 11: the time. So, yes, traffic is down. This is from

675
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 11: the MTA. So the data says the number of vehicles

676
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 11: entering New York City congesting pricing zone fell eight percent

677
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 11: last week compared with the average January work day from

678
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 11: twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four. But the problem

679
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 11: is is that this is what the Wall Street Journal

680
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 11: is pointing out, is that the business district, which is

681
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 11: still recovering from the pandemic, is starting to take a hit,

682
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 11: especially the parking garages. You have parking garages. One ceo

683
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 11: told them that they've had a twenty percent dropped since

684
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 11: the congestion pricing started. Then, of course, you know you

685
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 11: have the different businesses in the area too, But also

686
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 11: we can't forget the taxi drivers who are now complaining

687
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 11: because less traffic means shorter rides on the meter, and

688
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 11: there are fewer people hailing cabs too. So this is

689
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 11: kind of the good and the bad to it, which

690
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 11: we knew what's going to happen.

691
00:34:58,360 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: I have seen it. I mentioned this year.

692
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 5: We'll get mister Tucker in for a spirited debate with you.

693
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:02,479
Speaker 3: Ben.

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00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, what you've seen?

695
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 6: John?

696
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: What's going But you know, I go down Lexington and

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00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 3: I go across fifty five to Michael's Diner and there's

698
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: a lot less traffic.

699
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: Fact fact no.

700
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 5: I've noticed rolling in an early hour this week. You're

701
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 5: getting on my lift, it comes up, we're getting.

702
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 2: Hit with it as I yes, did they give you

703
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 2: the belly? Yeah?

704
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 5: It on Love Late Lisa still has Joe.

705
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 3: Wisenhall out on Twitter saying the subways are much more

706
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 3: crowded next so what.

707
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 11: Do they are? And also the trains New Jersey Trains

708
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 11: is a lot more crowded.

709
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 2: But I know, maybe that's why Sweeney's not in.

710
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 11: Maybe he's still waiting.

711
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 6: Does in stand this?

712
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 11: Over to the New York Times. So we've been talking

713
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 11: about the Los Angeles fires, the air quality, so apparently

714
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 11: the air quality is improving, but now there's another threat

715
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 11: that's starting to remain. So the air quality measured on

716
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 11: a scale from good to hazardous. It was good to

717
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 11: moderate Monday, mostly good across Los Angeles Tuesday. Similar condition

718
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 11: expected today. But the air quality manager is saying that

719
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 11: the wind blown dush dust and the ash, that is

720
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 11: a big concern because you can have the lightest wind

721
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 11: that can pick it up and take it across the

722
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 11: county and it has a lot of toxic carcinogenic material.

723
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,399
Speaker 11: And what they're saying is that you know, you can

724
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 11: protect yourself, of course with the N ninety five or

725
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 11: the P one hundred mass, but they're saying the ash

726
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 11: is something that has to be really be considered and

727
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 11: looked into now, not just the air quality, but that

728
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 11: as well.

729
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 5: We were in touch with friends and family out there,

730
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 5: and this is something I've heard anecdotally, especially folks with kids.

731
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 5: We're worried about this and how much of it there is.

732
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,439
Speaker 5: And even if they've kind of escaped the immediate threat

733
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 5: of the conflagration, the house is reasonably safe right now.

734
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 5: It is a worry toime wetsut of the air and

735
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 5: how bad that.

736
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 3: Is and Rob Carolyn making clear a it's not over

737
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: and if anything, it would migrate south. You did say

738
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 3: there's a hell mary of some participation perhaps in the

739
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: coming days, but it is still for all of us

740
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 3: exhausted by this.

741
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: It's by no means.

742
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 5: Over right, and wind's less bad yesterday than I think

743
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 5: we're forecast. But today a new day and we'll.

744
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: See what it holds.

745
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 11: Moving on to the job market, was in the Wall

746
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 11: Street Journal too well, they're saying that even Harvard MBAs

747
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 11: are struggling to land jobs. Or it just goes to

748
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 11: show you the perspective of what's going on. This is

749
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 11: from the Harvard Business School itself. It says twenty three

750
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 11: percent of job seeking Harvard nbas who graduated last spring,

751
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 11: we're still looking for work three months after leaving campus.

752
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 11: So the reason why that three month is such so

753
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 11: such a critical figure for them is because they kind

754
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 11: of use that to get the professionals into the school itself.

755
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 11: But it just goes to show you the difference in

756
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 11: how it's starting to change. But there was one school

757
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 11: who did report and increased like they've had more students

758
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,760
Speaker 11: kind of being hired after and that was Columbia Business School.

759
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 2: But it was Joseph Cone.

760
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 6: That's it.

761
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 3: They go in on the resume. I took a course

762
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 3: with the Abbey Joseph Cone and survived. That's why, Lisa Mateo,

763
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: thank you so much. The newspapers today and with a

764
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 3: different layoffs and new right sizing meta yesterday.

765
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Microsoft is as well. I think it's worth looking at.

766
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

767
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

768
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

769
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

770
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

771
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal