1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

4
00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,280
Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

5
00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,240
Speaker 2: The political ramifications of the economic data here are huge.

7
00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,920
Speaker 2: Just ask Kamala Harris if they think they can put

8
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:35,760
Speaker 2: a bow on this whole inflation story by the time

9
00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,680
Speaker 2: we're walking into the election in November, in the wake

10
00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 2: of Labor Day, it would be a huge deal. Another

11
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,720
Speaker 2: huge deal for Kamala Harris. Today is the big endorsement

12
00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,360
Speaker 2: we've all been waiting for. I guess the transformation is complete.

13
00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:55,120
Speaker 2: As I said earlier, the Obamas, not surprisingly are on board.

14
00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,000
Speaker 2: They rolled it out in a video and it's not

15
00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,440
Speaker 2: a big, you know, movie trailer style thing, or even

16
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 2: Barack Obama sitting there with Michelle Obama explaining the decision.

17
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,440
Speaker 2: It's a phone call. They got the cameras out to

18
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 2: take the phone call from the Obamas. Here's what it

19
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:13,039
Speaker 2: looks like.

20
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:20,200
Speaker 3: Kamalah, Hi, Hey there, Ah, you're both together.

21
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:21,759
Speaker 4: Oh, it's good to hear you both.

22
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 5: I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala,

23
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,040
Speaker 5: I am proud of you.

24
00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 6: This is going to be historic.

25
00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,560
Speaker 7: We call to say Michelle and I couldn't be prouder

26
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,840
Speaker 7: to endorse you and to do everything we can to

27
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,240
Speaker 7: get you through this election and into the oblo.

28
00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,479
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, Michelle Brocktice means so much to.

29
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:48,560
Speaker 2: Meet Leo was watching reality TV? Is that how we

30
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:49,560
Speaker 2: roll out endorsements?

31
00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:49,680
Speaker 3: Now?

32
00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 2: I guess it's creative. I'll ask some folks smarter than

33
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,320
Speaker 2: me over the course of the next two hours about this.

34
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,480
Speaker 2: But to get a sense of the landscape here and

35
00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 2: what this change in direction in the campaign means for

36
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 2: not only the mushy middle as some call them, but

37
00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,520
Speaker 2: the double haters who emerge in the most recent Siena

38
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,280
Speaker 2: College New York Times poll, as well as former Nikki

39
00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,800
Speaker 2: Haley supporters, and a great opportunity to bring you a

40
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,200
Speaker 2: conversation from a unique perspective of Charlie Dent, the former

41
00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:22,000
Speaker 2: Republican congressman from Pennsylvania's fifteenth district, wrote an op ed

42
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:28,040
Speaker 2: just after the debate calling on Joe Biden to drop

43
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,280
Speaker 2: out of this race. Congressman it's great to see you.

44
00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,800
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us at the table today. It's a

45
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,480
Speaker 2: compelling read, especially after the fact. Now when you go

46
00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:39,080
Speaker 2: back and read the op ed that you wrote for

47
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 2: MS first, you write, I feel dumber after watching and

48
00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 2: listening to that debate, and I think we all can

49
00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,400
Speaker 2: agree with that and understand. Democrats, you wrote, this is

50
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,200
Speaker 2: the end of your column. Democrats will say it's too

51
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,920
Speaker 2: hard and too late to replace Biden. Nonsense, you said.

52
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,040
Speaker 2: The Democratic National Convention is in August. They can do it.

53
00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,680
Speaker 2: But do they have the guts? So is the Democratic

54
00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:01,840
Speaker 2: Party the party of guts?

55
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:02,080
Speaker 3: Now?

56
00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,280
Speaker 8: Well, I have to give them a lot of credit

57
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,760
Speaker 8: for doing what they needed to do.

58
00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,919
Speaker 9: That took a lot of discipline, It did take guts,

59
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 9: and I commend them. They had a real problem on

60
00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,400
Speaker 9: their hands. Yeah, and they dealt with it. Now we

61
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,000
Speaker 9: could argue whether or not they should have had an

62
00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 9: open a more open process than they did, but they

63
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,120
Speaker 9: felt they didn't have the time. Next person up was

64
00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris. They got her in. They've got everybody on

65
00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,040
Speaker 9: board and game on. So I have to give them

66
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,480
Speaker 9: a lot of credit for doing that. I don't know

67
00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,280
Speaker 9: the Republicans could have done that. You know, I think

68
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,760
Speaker 9: the Republicans be smart to replace their candidate too, give

69
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,640
Speaker 9: them unpopularity, But that's not going to happen.

70
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 2: He and Joe Biden shared that unpopularity. So to one extent,

71
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 2: is this an instant game changer?

72
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 9: Well, it is a big game changer simply because of

73
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 9: the fact that, well, the Republicans are effectively able to

74
00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 9: make the argument that Joe Biden was unfit for office,

75
00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,240
Speaker 9: that he had diminished capacity, and that wasn't going to

76
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 9: go away. Well, that issue is now off the table,

77
00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,000
Speaker 9: and the Democrats will probably be able to flip the

78
00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 9: script and say, well, you know, the this question now

79
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,040
Speaker 9: is your guy given all the erratic and dangerous things

80
00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,560
Speaker 9: that he has said, and oh, by the way, he's

81
00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 9: old too, So I think they're going to be able

82
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 9: to effectively make that case. Of course, Republicans are going

83
00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,720
Speaker 9: to counter that Kamala Harris is too liberal, far too progressive. Yes,

84
00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 9: and outside the mainstream, but it's a different The race

85
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 9: has been reset and it's more of a binary choice

86
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,560
Speaker 9: now than it was prior to Biden's departure.

87
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 2: We were seeing in states like yours twenty plus percent

88
00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,440
Speaker 2: protest vote for Donald Trump in the form of a

89
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,719
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley vote. Even though she had left the race,

90
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 2: still a lot of these Nicky Haley style Republicans wondering

91
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:43,800
Speaker 2: what to do. And I'm not sure they saw the

92
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,240
Speaker 2: answer last Thursday night when Hulk Hogan was ripping his

93
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,559
Speaker 2: shirt off in Milwaukee, or when Donald Trump was setting

94
00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,000
Speaker 2: the record for the all time stem winder convention speech.

95
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 2: How does Kamala Harris reach them?

96
00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 9: Well, she has an opportunity. These Hailey votvoters are still

97
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,599
Speaker 9: up for grabs. I know the Republicans thought that their

98
00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,400
Speaker 9: convention really is a unifying event.

99
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 8: Well, they were.

100
00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,520
Speaker 9: Unified inside the room. In the room, yes, but outside

101
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,360
Speaker 9: the room, you know that's what they meant. Yeah, these folks,

102
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,760
Speaker 9: there are still these I was one of those Nicky

103
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,600
Speaker 9: Haley voters in Pennsylvania at about twenty percent of Republicans

104
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,960
Speaker 9: voted for Nicki Haley in a closed primary state. And

105
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,719
Speaker 9: those voters are still up for grabs, you know.

106
00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:25,240
Speaker 8: I think so.

107
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,560
Speaker 9: In many ways, I think Harris has an opportunity. If

108
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,560
Speaker 9: she can moderate on some positions, say like trade and tariffs,

109
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 9: and maybe some other areas, she might have an opportunity

110
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,760
Speaker 9: to get those voters. But those folks are still up

111
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:41,400
Speaker 9: for grabs. Some of them are going to go which Trump.

112
00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 9: Haley has endorsed Trump. She wants to keep her options

113
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 9: open for a future election, but that doesn't mean her

114
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 9: voters are necessarily following her.

115
00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:48,680
Speaker 8: Some of them.

116
00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,760
Speaker 2: Well that's really important. I mean that could decide this race.

117
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,440
Speaker 2: When you say to moderate on things like tariffs, does

118
00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,400
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris need to say we're the free market party

119
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,559
Speaker 2: now the Republican Party is now the isolation is tariff party?

120
00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,200
Speaker 9: Well, you know, I think if you know, as you know,

121
00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,520
Speaker 9: I'm part of a group of our Republican legacy and

122
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 9: we're trying to get the Republican Party back to some

123
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:15,920
Speaker 9: core principles the Constitution.

124
00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,720
Speaker 8: No, it does not include terraffs, so, but free markets, and.

125
00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,560
Speaker 9: We would object to these types of high punitive tariffs.

126
00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 9: And we think protect the privileged few at the expense

127
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,120
Speaker 9: of the many. So we would you know, we were

128
00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 9: for the rule of law, we are for the Constitution,

129
00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:36,320
Speaker 9: we are for free markets, for fiscal discipline and peace,

130
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,680
Speaker 9: to strength and embracing allies. So she has an opportunity

131
00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 9: to engage in constructive international foreign policy that embraces allies.

132
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,479
Speaker 9: I mean, she has an opportunity with those Hailey voters there,

133
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,960
Speaker 9: she has an opportunity with them, certainly on tariffs, where

134
00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,640
Speaker 9: we reject this idea of raising taxes on everything that

135
00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,480
Speaker 9: comes into the United States, you know, and of course

136
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 9: we the consumers pay, and as we saw with the

137
00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,200
Speaker 9: Trump tariffs on on much of the product coming in

138
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,080
Speaker 9: from China, we ended up paying more in subsidies to

139
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 9: farmers and we took an in tariff revenue from China.

140
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,360
Speaker 9: And so yeah, so here's an opportunity for Nick, for

141
00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,240
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris to get some of these voters the Democrats.

142
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 9: I don't know if they're going to become a pure

143
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,480
Speaker 9: free market party, but there's the opportunity now, given where

144
00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:23,320
Speaker 9: the Republican Party is under another.

145
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,360
Speaker 2: Macunity, to at least draw a contrast this group that

146
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,960
Speaker 2: you mentioned our Republican legacy. Is this a political action

147
00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,600
Speaker 2: committee or a lobbying getting involved, for instance, in the

148
00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,200
Speaker 2: argument over the Trump tax cuts.

149
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,240
Speaker 9: We are not a we're not a pack, we're not

150
00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,760
Speaker 9: a super pack or a five OZHO one C four organization.

151
00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:44,440
Speaker 9: We're not involved in advocating for or for or against

152
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,480
Speaker 9: any particular candidate for office. What we are are a

153
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,920
Speaker 9: lot of dispirited Republicans who want to stay part of

154
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,440
Speaker 9: the Republican Party, but simply want this party to go

155
00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,880
Speaker 9: into a different direction. We want an alternative argument to

156
00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,160
Speaker 9: Maga's argument. We believe we're looking on twenty twenty four

157
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,920
Speaker 9: that regardless of what happens in this election, we want

158
00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,240
Speaker 9: this party to become focused on principles we've been the

159
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 9: principles that we talk about the constitution.

160
00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 8: Rule of law, the Union.

161
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,920
Speaker 9: We talk about free markets, peace through strength, fiscal responsibility.

162
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 9: These are principles that have that have sustained the party

163
00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:24,800
Speaker 9: for one hundred and seventy years. The Maga argument, they

164
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,560
Speaker 9: really don't have core principles, and many of the principles

165
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,560
Speaker 9: I've just outlined are inconsistent or incompatible with what mag

166
00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,880
Speaker 9: is talking about. On free markets, on peace through strength,

167
00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,720
Speaker 9: we are in a very different place, and so what

168
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 9: we want to do is create this argument. There is

169
00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 9: for far too long, there has been one side arguing

170
00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,480
Speaker 9: the Maga argument, and there's been silence on the other end,

171
00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 9: and so we want to provide a different voice. We

172
00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,360
Speaker 9: recognize we are in the minority right now, but we

173
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,320
Speaker 9: represent a significant number of Republicans who want a different

174
00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 9: direction for the party and for this country really fast.

175
00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:05,360
Speaker 2: And you've got some very recognizable boldfaces on board with

176
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:10,280
Speaker 2: that group. Now, there was a conventional wisdom that MAGA

177
00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,199
Speaker 2: would last as long as Donald Trump, that no one

178
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,240
Speaker 2: could replace the maestro here, and whether it was one

179
00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,280
Speaker 2: or two terms, that would kind of be the extent

180
00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 2: of the movement. And by the way, I kept hearing

181
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,840
Speaker 2: that in Milwaukee, not a party, a movement when it

182
00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,960
Speaker 2: came to MAGA. With that said, now we have jd

183
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 2: Vance on board, and I also heard in Milwaukee that

184
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,920
Speaker 2: he's the heir apparent, that this is twenty twenty eight,

185
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,280
Speaker 2: that MAGA will live past Donald Trump. What do you

186
00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:36,760
Speaker 2: say to.

187
00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:41,480
Speaker 9: Them, Well, it's clear that jd Vance was selected as

188
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,520
Speaker 9: almost a legacy pick for Donald Trump.

189
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 2: Jd Vance and a target districts like your old districts

190
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania.

191
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, although he'll have a tough time in my swing district.

192
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:55,760
Speaker 9: But look, jd Vance was selected because he can better

193
00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,719
Speaker 9: articulate the MAGA agenda than frankly, Donald Trump can. That's

194
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:01,920
Speaker 9: what he doing and what we're doing is we're that

195
00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,080
Speaker 9: is a movement. But what we are trying to do

196
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,560
Speaker 9: also is create a movement of Republicans who want something better.

197
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,520
Speaker 9: And you mentioned some of our leaders, Jack Danforth, Alan Simpson,

198
00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,400
Speaker 9: Bill Cohen and many others who you know want to

199
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 9: talk about this.

200
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,720
Speaker 8: We want to engage in this debate with the MAGA crowd.

201
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:22,600
Speaker 8: We think we're on the right track. You know. J. D.

202
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,480
Speaker 9: Vance, He's he's you know, he's basically chair of the

203
00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:29,840
Speaker 9: Russia Appeasement Ukraine Surrender Caucus. That's not where we are

204
00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:32,599
Speaker 9: as a as a as a as an organization.

205
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:33,160
Speaker 8: You know.

206
00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 9: We we believe in these allies. We believe in pushing

207
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,880
Speaker 9: back against autocrats. We think that Russian aggression is is

208
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,960
Speaker 9: out of bounds and must be resisted.

209
00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,320
Speaker 8: We don't want Putin to win, unlike you know Vance.

210
00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:46,920
Speaker 9: And so this is where I think we can draw

211
00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:51,520
Speaker 9: some really hard contrasts that speak to the Republican Party.

212
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,520
Speaker 8: I know of Dwight.

213
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,120
Speaker 9: Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan and the Bushes and and and

214
00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 9: many many others.

215
00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 8: And so that's where we want to go.

216
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,080
Speaker 9: We we recognize the party's not going back to where

217
00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,720
Speaker 9: it was, but we wanted to go to a better place,

218
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,520
Speaker 9: and we're ready to engage, you know, whatever mag is

219
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,440
Speaker 9: going to look like after Trump is off the state.

220
00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could come talk to us about

221
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,920
Speaker 2: a Charlie Dent, former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, the group

222
00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,120
Speaker 2: Our Republican Legacy. It's great to see you. Thank you, sir.

223
00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,160
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

224
00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

225
00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,479
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo

226
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

227
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,640
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

228
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,600
Speaker 1: Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

229
00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,720
Speaker 2: Nice Friday. Here in Washington, they're all gone. It's happened again.

230
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,480
Speaker 2: The lawmakers have left us for a six week tour

231
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 2: into the end of summer. So you can park anywhere,

232
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,880
Speaker 2: get the table at the restaurant, whatever, run down the

233
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 2: middle of the National Mall. If you're actually coming on

234
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 2: a tourist trip here, you'll be awfully happy. The weather's

235
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,000
Speaker 2: beautiful as we try to figure out what's going to

236
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,240
Speaker 2: happen when they all come back, and what will happen

237
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:13,040
Speaker 2: in Chicago before that even takes place. The Democratic National

238
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 2: Convention gets underway in just a few weeks, and before

239
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 2: that is a virtual nominating event that's going to make

240
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,480
Speaker 2: this official, it seems. For Kamala Harris, the question is

241
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,320
Speaker 2: who will join her. And we're going to be talking

242
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:31,280
Speaker 2: much more about the deep steaks as we make our

243
00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,320
Speaker 2: way through the following days here. But as we prepare

244
00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 2: to assemble our panel, Kamala Harris gets a phone call.

245
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,040
Speaker 2: I do get a kick out of this. Everyone's been

246
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 2: waiting around to find out when the last big endorsement

247
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 2: is going to drop, knowing that Barack Obama has been

248
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,520
Speaker 2: on the phone with Kamala Harris repeatedly since Joe Biden

249
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,560
Speaker 2: dropped out of the race. But you know, we got

250
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,839
Speaker 2: to spread this out. You got to use the news

251
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,800
Speaker 2: cycle a little bit. It's not hard to get It's

252
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,000
Speaker 2: just everyone gets their own day, right. So the phone rings,

253
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:08,840
Speaker 2: the Vice President answers, and who is it? Roll the tape.

254
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,640
Speaker 7: Kamalah, Hi, Hey.

255
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:18,440
Speaker 3: There, you're both to guess to hear you both.

256
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,960
Speaker 5: I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala,

257
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 5: I am proud of you. This is going to be historic.

258
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 7: We called to say Michelle, and I couldn't be prouder

259
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,520
Speaker 7: to endorse you and to do everything we can to

260
00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 7: get you through this election and into the Oval.

261
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:40,200
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, Michelle Bractice means so much to me.

262
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:47,720
Speaker 2: She's, of course not surprised anymore than we are. Let's

263
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,440
Speaker 2: assemble the panel. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis with us.

264
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,679
Speaker 2: They've been following every beat of this story. Bloomberg Politics

265
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 2: contributors of course. Genie at Iona University, political science professor

266
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,800
Speaker 2: as well senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the

267
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,240
Speaker 2: Study of the Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis, partner at

268
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital, the smartest pair in the business. Great

269
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,840
Speaker 2: to see you both, Genie. Is this a little bit

270
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:09,520
Speaker 2: too much for you?

271
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:09,719
Speaker 7: Or?

272
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,280
Speaker 2: I mean, is this fun to watch? Everyone said, you

273
00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 2: can't believe he's calling. How did we land the Obamas?

274
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 2: But it is important for her to get this done right.

275
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 4: Important for her to get that. I felt actually a

276
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,600
Speaker 4: little badly for her watching that. I hate b roll

277
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 4: And of course she knew to your point that was coming,

278
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 4: and it's hard to look natural when you're doing something

279
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 4: like that. So she did pretty well. It was expected

280
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:39,280
Speaker 4: there'd been some consternation that the Obama's, particularly Barack Obama,

281
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 4: had been a little bit slow on doing this, but

282
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 4: I think he didn't want to get ahead of the

283
00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,560
Speaker 4: party and make it look like a coronation. And so

284
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,040
Speaker 4: here we have what we knew was going to happen.

285
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 4: I would say one important thing. It was not Jess Barack,

286
00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,640
Speaker 4: it was Michelle as well. And I think that speaks

287
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 4: volume to the fact they are both going to be

288
00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,680
Speaker 4: on the campaign trail. And can I tell you when

289
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,760
Speaker 4: I had my long sit over in the airport when

290
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 4: we were trying to leave Milwaukee, the one name I

291
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 4: heard from Republicans who were there with me that they

292
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 4: were concerned about run against Donald Trump. Michelle Obama. Of

293
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 4: course she is not running, but that fact she's going

294
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 4: to be on the campaign trail. It's not scientific, but there.

295
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,400
Speaker 6: You have it.

296
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 2: Isn't that something?

297
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 7: Rick?

298
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,320
Speaker 2: Just think of these Republicans stuck in an airport gate

299
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 2: with Jeanie Shanzino sharing strategy ideas. Is this important? And

300
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 2: I ask you this, Rick Davis, Your candidate ran against

301
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 2: Barack Obama or Barack and Michelle Obama still the kryptonite.

302
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 2: They were on the campaign trail you know, I think.

303
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 10: They serve a useful purpose. They're not the kryptonite they

304
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,920
Speaker 10: used to be, but there's still you know, Democratic Party Royalty.

305
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:50,360
Speaker 10: Not exactly sure how they appealed to swing voters. They

306
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,520
Speaker 10: haven't been on a ballot in a long time. People

307
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,880
Speaker 10: tend to forget. But also the longer you're out office,

308
00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 10: the more popular you are. So certainly the barnacles that

309
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,640
Speaker 10: he might have had on right after he left office

310
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,120
Speaker 10: aren't there now. So yeah, I actually thought it was

311
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,160
Speaker 10: a pretty inventive way to do this. Obviously, it was

312
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,640
Speaker 10: finally tuned and orchestrated. There was nothing spontaneous about it.

313
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,480
Speaker 10: They captured the best audio I've heard in a commercial

314
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 10: in a long time, and so, you know, job done right.

315
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 10: I mean, this is sort of the last tumbler to

316
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 10: fall before she announces the big pick and onto the convention.

317
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,760
Speaker 10: So I really feel like, actually, what I expected to

318
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 10: be a hot mess for Democrats who aren't typically this

319
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 10: well organized, this thing has gone really swimmingly for her.

320
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 10: And if they can keep it up to the convention,

321
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 10: she's off to a great start.

322
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 2: Wow, that's Rick Davis talking Democrats. Were you convinced by

323
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 2: this genie? We don't see them, we just hear the voices.

324
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: Clearly it was staged. I like to think they told

325
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 2: her who was calling. Did it work for you?

326
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,920
Speaker 4: You know it did? I mean, you know, it's really

327
00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 4: really tough to make these things look spontaneous. I thought

328
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 4: it was fine. I would have preferred, of course, them

329
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,119
Speaker 4: coming and doing something in person. I understand time whyse

330
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 4: that is not a reality, But I think it also

331
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,280
Speaker 4: gives Democrats something to wait for. Imagine if in Chicago

332
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:19,119
Speaker 4: that you know, she is introduced by Barack, Michelle, Joe

333
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,439
Speaker 4: and Jill there you go. I mean, that would be

334
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,640
Speaker 4: exciting for Democrats. So maybe we have to hold off

335
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,880
Speaker 4: for that. But you know, I thought all in all

336
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 4: it worked fine. I didn't have any complaints about it.

337
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 4: And I think to Rick's point, this has all gone

338
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 4: a lot better than I imagined it could have or

339
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,439
Speaker 4: would have, with the exception of the slow sort of

340
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 4: eking out of the advertising which is coming now.

341
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 6: So that's a good sign.

342
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 2: So you're predicting the Democratic avengers at the convention in Chicago.

343
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 2: We've got our first big poll here. It's a national

344
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 2: poll at least that I'll start with Rick Siena College

345
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 2: New York Times. We talk about this one a lot here.

346
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,240
Speaker 2: It was taken after the president stepped aside. Kind of

347
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: interesting to see this overall. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris

348
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 2: forty eight percent to forty seven percent. She's narrowed this

349
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 2: to just one point. Is it too early, considering all

350
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,919
Speaker 2: the noise in the race right now to get an

351
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:21,879
Speaker 2: accurate read or does this mean something yet?

352
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 10: My first caveat, as you know, I hate national polls,

353
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 10: and I hate him even more in the summer. So

354
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 10: that being said, it is an interesting poll. In fact,

355
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris is up when you build in the five

356
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 10: way ballot, and it's pretty clear that one of the

357
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 10: things you can draw from this is that Kennedy's candidacy

358
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 10: potentially now takes way more from Trump than it does

359
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,920
Speaker 10: from Harris, which is a new development. The other thing

360
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 10: I found in this poll, which was shocking to me,

361
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 10: is that the mood of the country has approved dramatically

362
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 10: since the Republican Convention. I don't know what they did there,

363
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 10: but you know, the right Track is up twenty seven points.

364
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 10: I mean, that is phenomenal, and so that boat lifts

365
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 10: the Biden administration, which lifts Harris. So I think that

366
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 10: she's getting a lot of acceleration in her numbers or

367
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 10: fave U fave is way up. She's much more popular

368
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:26,239
Speaker 10: now than she was before the anointment. And I don't know,

369
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 10: it looks like a completely different campaign to me, and

370
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 10: I suspect we'll see more and more of this kind

371
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 10: of pulling as people's opinions start.

372
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 2: To Gell producer James referring to the you singer bump.

373
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: If you're from Milwaukee, you know what that means. But Genie,

374
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what. We heard a lot from Republicans

375
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 2: to Rick's point in Milwaukee about unity. Did they in

376
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,120
Speaker 2: fact unify the Democratic Party?

377
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 4: You know, I think Joe Biden getting out did that.

378
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 4: And of course there's nothing that gets Democrats going like

379
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 4: a unified party behind Donald Trump. That said, I don't

380
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 4: see this as a new race. In particular, what shocked

381
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 4: me about this is we are, into a certain extent,

382
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 4: right back where we were before Joe Biden's implosion in

383
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 4: the debate, Tamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat.

384
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 4: You know, looking at the margin of era, you can't

385
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 4: say she's up or down. To Rick's point, this is

386
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 4: a national poll. But here's the problem for Democrats. Democrats

387
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,919
Speaker 4: cannot be tied or lose in the popular vote and

388
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 4: win the electoral college. Only Republicans can at this point.

389
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 4: So this to me is a warning sign to Democrats. Yes,

390
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 4: you are back where you were. You have a candidate

391
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 4: who is not in his eighties and that has had

392
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 4: this rally around the candidate effect. But the reality is

393
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 4: the issues that were pinned on Joe Biden, except for age,

394
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 4: are still there and you still have a very very

395
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 4: narrow window here. And so I think what this said

396
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 4: is Democrats and Kamala Harris have a lot of work

397
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 4: to do. She's got to define herself before the Republicans.

398
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 4: I mean, they are out there defining her. She's trying

399
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 4: to do the same. If they define her as liberal,

400
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 4: that is a big, big problem for her to win

401
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 4: in these swing states, particularly in those acorn restbel states.

402
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 4: So I thought this was better than when Joe Biden

403
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 4: was in a few weeks ago, but it's right back

404
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 4: where Democrats were when they were concerned before his debate.

405
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: Interesting. Well, I'll tell you what to Rick's point, though,

406
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: I guess the rising tide lifting all boats here, remember

407
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: the double haters. Talked with Don Levey at Sienna about

408
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 2: the double haters and with Rick and Genie a loon.

409
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 2: The number of voters who disliked both candidates in this

410
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 2: poll plunging to eight percent. That is down from twenty

411
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: percent so far this year. But Donald Trump's polster, Tony

412
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 2: Fabrizio Rick predicting in a memo here that before long,

413
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 2: the Harris honeymoon will end and voters will refocus on

414
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 2: her role as Joe Biden's partner and co pilot. Would

415
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: you be banking on that if you were running the

416
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 2: Trump campaign? Let this last a couple of weeks, maybe

417
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: through the convention that we get real.

418
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 10: I think this is solely up to the Trump campaign.

419
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 10: If Tony wants to make good on this, they're going

420
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 10: to have to pour about one hundred million dollars of

421
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 10: their cash stash into TV ads saying exactly that. Genie's right.

422
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 10: One of the things that comes out in this poll,

423
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 10: and I think we'll see in others, is that even

424
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 10: though Harris has good fave un fav, actually you know,

425
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 10: in some surveys I'm seeing now with Republicans, with Republican posters,

426
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 10: she's actually more positive than negative, which I never thought

427
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 10: i'd live to see that. The reality is, though, she's

428
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 10: not well defined, and so Republicans can spend the money

429
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 10: to define her. But I'd remind everybody that Democrats have

430
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 10: been spending six times more on TV this point in

431
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 10: time in this election than Republicans have, so they got

432
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 10: to get in this. But I disagree with Jennie. I

433
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 10: think this is a completely different set of terms. Donald

434
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 10: Trump is now leading with some senior voters that he

435
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 10: was losing by five or six to Biden. Kamala Harris

436
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 10: is now up with young people in a way that

437
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 10: was never seen under the Biden prensisent, And there has

438
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 10: been an alignment of vote where the Democratic base, young people, Hispanics,

439
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 10: blacks are coming back to the Democratic Party that had

440
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 10: fled it before the debate meltdown. And this campaign is

441
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 10: getting readjusted arguably better for Trump in the Midwest states

442
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 10: like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but better for Harris

443
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 10: in the Sun Belt. I mean, that is a different

444
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 10: race than what we had going into the debate.

445
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: As we turn our attention to the Sun Belt. Just

446
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 2: one minute left here, Jeanie, how long will the Harris

447
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: honeymoon last If that's what this is.

448
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to last long. And the

449
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 4: reality is there are more younger and people of color

450
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 4: voters in those sun Belt states. She can eke some

451
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 4: of those over, but it doesn't change the fact that

452
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 4: Democrats need to not do worse than Clinton and Biden

453
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 4: did with non college white voters in those rust Belt states.

454
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 4: And that's the reality of this came in and that's

455
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 4: what I mean when it hasn't changed. She is still

456
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 4: going to have to win those rust Belt states all

457
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 4: things considered, assuming she doesn't pick up a sun Belt state,

458
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 4: and it doesn't look at this point like that's in

459
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: the author.

460
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 2: Great conversation with our panel, that's Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis,

461
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 2: of course, our signature panel on Balance of Power. They'll

462
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 2: be back in hour two after we dig into some

463
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: swing state data as well. Spencer Kimball from Emerson College

464
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: Polling Center will join us as we welcome our global

465
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: television audience to the conversation. I told you we had

466
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: a lot to talk about today.

467
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

468
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppocarplay and then

469
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: Brunoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

470
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

471
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: What world will be be in? What will that feel

472
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 2: like if there is an interest rate cut in September,

473
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,959
Speaker 2: right around the same time Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

474
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 2: are set reportedly to debate and people start really making

475
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 2: up their minds on how they're going to vote in November.

476
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: It couldn't be more important to us here on Balance

477
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 2: of Power as we stick with the bead of course

478
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 2: on politics and add the voice of an expert. Spencer Kimball,

479
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 2: who runs the polling center at Emerson College, is with

480
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: us and it's great to have you back. Spencer. Welcome

481
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: back to Balance of Power. I want to get into

482
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: some new polling. This is really important because Emerson is

483
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 2: one of the first to emerge, if not the first,

484
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: with swing state data in the wake of Joe Biden

485
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: stepping down and dropping out of this race, and we

486
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: do have head to head numbers on Trump versus Harris.

487
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: Important to note here as I read from Emerson College

488
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: that Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing Donald Trump in

489
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: four states and tied in another that would be Wisconsin.

490
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 2: But I want to start at a higher level with you, Spencer,

491
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 2: before we dig into the granular here. The Trump campaign

492
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 2: has been trying to telegraph this as essentially a blip

493
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: on the radar. It's the same race, the same candidate,

494
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: just with a different name. In fact, we keep hearing

495
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 2: about the Biden Harris administration when Donald Trump speaks and

496
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 2: Republicans kickout messages this week. How about you as a polster?

497
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: Is this a game changer? Are we throwing up the

498
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 2: pieces in the air or is this just a slight

499
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 2: aberration on the way to November.

500
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 11: Well, Joe, I think it was a game changer in

501
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 11: the sense that after the first debate with President Biden,

502
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,880
Speaker 11: the Democrats are slowly drifting away from his or supporting

503
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 11: his candidacy. And with Harris now the presumption, the presumption nominee,

504
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 11: she kind of bounced back. She got that younger boat

505
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 11: coming back to her. She's got some of that minority boat.

506
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 11: So I'm not sure if it's enough to put her

507
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 11: over the top, but it's definitely brought it back to

508
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 11: a competitive race.

509
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: So let's take a look here. If you're with us

510
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, you can see the

511
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: data as we follow along with Emerson College. Here Arizona,

512
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 2: you've got forty four for Kamala Harris, forty nine for Trump.

513
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: He's leading as well in Georgia forty eight, forty six.

514
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 2: He's leading in Michigan forty six, forty five, Pennsylvania forty eight,

515
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 2: forty six, and we're tied in Wisconsin. You could argue

516
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 2: that these are the five states that will determine the race.

517
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 2: Our swing state pole in fact includes seven, but Spencer,

518
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 2: that tie in Wisconsin should tell us a lot. How

519
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 2: do these compare to where we were with Joe Biden.

520
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 11: Well, it's interesting out in the Midwest. You're watching Harris

521
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 11: competing much stronger than where Biden ended up last week

522
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 11: after the debate, But where she struggles is out in Arizona.

523
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 11: And Arizona's different than these other states. When we ask

524
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:21,479
Speaker 11: them their most important issue. For Arizona, it's immigration thirty percent.

525
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 11: All of these other states that you mentioned forty percent

526
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 11: was economy was their top issue, and Arizona's different and

527
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 11: that's why potentially you're seeing a different result there at

528
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 11: a five point lead while all of the other polls

529
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 11: are within one or two points.

530
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: Not a surprise then to see gop ads and there

531
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 2: have been several already made targeting Kamala Harris, all focus

532
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: on her record on immigration and border policy. Is that

533
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 2: going to be the Achilles Heel for the Kamala Harris campaign,

534
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 2: knowing that she was assigned to the border by Joe Biden.

535
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 11: Well, certainly President or former President Trump try to connect

536
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 11: her to that issue. We'll see obviously out west how

537
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 11: much that's going to play. We're going to take a

538
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 11: look at New Mexico and Nevada where that might be

539
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 11: a big issue for those voters on the border. But

540
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 11: then we got to look out at the Midwest and

541
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 11: see how they're playing with immigration. That's really a secondary issue.

542
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 11: It's about ten percent as the most important issue in

543
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 11: those states. As I mentioned, the economy that's up at

544
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 11: forty percent. So while there might be some benefit on

545
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 11: some movement on the immigration, I think in those other

546
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 11: states it's going to be about the economy.

547
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: You talked to Democrats about who delegates should support here

548
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: and pretty remarkable considering where we were Spencer even a

549
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 2: week ago talking about various governors, whether it was Cooper

550
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 2: or Basher, Shapiro Whitmer, the Democrat bench was full. We

551
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: heard and within my goodness, twenty four hours of Joe

552
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: Biden announcing his decision, when he kicked out that letter,

553
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris had the delegates to close the deal. Did

554
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 2: you learn from talking with Democrats in.

555
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 11: This pool, Well, generally speaking, they're rallying around Harris. As

556
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 11: you notice, about eighty percent in each state like Harris

557
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 11: to be the nominee. And so that I think has

558
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 11: a lot to do with some fallout from President Biden's

559
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 11: debate performance where Democrats were really concerned about not being

560
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 11: able to beat Donald Trump. They see in Vice President

561
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 11: Harris a potential candidate who will be more competitive, and

562
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 11: that's what we're seeing in the numbers.

563
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 2: Let's play the veepstakes here. You asked voters about her

564
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 2: selection of a running mate, Spencer.

565
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 11: Would you learn, Well, each state has their favorite son

566
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 11: or daughter. We can go up to Michigan and they

567
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 11: want their governor Gretchen Whitmer. If we go out to Arizona,

568
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 11: they want their Senator Mark Kelly. Georgia Wisconsin, they're not

569
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 11: quite sure. They kind of jump around between Pete Boudage

570
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 11: Edge and Bernie Sanders. But probably the strongest candidate out

571
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 11: there is Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, very popular

572
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 11: in his home state, and Pennsylvania is the most electoral

573
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 11: vote it's up for grabs.

574
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, you just among Democratic voters overall, Shapiro gets

575
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: fifty seven percent. Next in line Mark Kelly at forty

576
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 2: two percent. Is it because Democrats believe Shapiro can carry

577
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris.

578
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 11: Well, I'm not sure if that's what's driving Shapiro's support,

579
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 11: but I do notice is that He's got a lot

580
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 11: of support amongst younger voters, and we don't really see

581
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 11: that with any other Democratic candidate except for Bernie Sanders.

582
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 11: So it would be interesting if he could kind of

583
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 11: carry that baton of the youth vote that Bernie Sanders

584
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 11: has been carrying for about eight years.

585
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting too to see Arizona Senator Mark Kelly

586
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: forty two percent prefer their senator. Maybe that shouldn't be

587
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: a surprise, But I wonder your thoughts on the Sun

588
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 2: Belt versus the Rust Belt. Our Republican analyst Rick Davis

589
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: was talking about this a bit earlier that we spent

590
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: so much time talking about the blue Wall that it

591
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: was Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Kamala harri may be

592
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: opening a new path in the sun Belt states, do

593
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: you agree?

594
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 7: Not?

595
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 11: Right now? Look at Arizona. That's that's a big five

596
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 11: points right there that she has to make up, and

597
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 11: the top issue there is not something that is her strength.

598
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 11: Maybe on the economy, as you were mentioning earlier, it

599
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 11: seems to be rebounding. The markets are doing better. That

600
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 11: might be you know, Bidenomics might be a campaign theme

601
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 11: more than the immigration. So it's going to be interesting

602
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 11: in the Sunbelt. North Carolina was a state that we

603
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 11: kind of moved off of the swing states. We'll see

604
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 11: if she can bring it back in about you know,

605
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 11: a fifth of the population there as African American, so

606
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 11: that might give her a bounce in North Carolina. But

607
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 11: giving giving up that Blue Wall, that's a big path

608
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 11: for the Democratic success and I would be very hesitant

609
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 11: to do that.

610
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: So it sounds a lot like Shapiro to me based

611
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 2: on this conversation, But I know the rules change based

612
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: on the campaign. You asked an important question, Spencer and

613
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 2: I don't mean to be reading into this. You can

614
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 2: tell me if I'm going in the wrong direction here.

615
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: But a majority of Democratic voters in each state you

616
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: talk to think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the

617
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: Democratic National Convention this August. Does that imply that they

618
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: do not want her to be nominated in this virtual

619
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 2: call about a week from now.

620
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 11: I'm not sure about that. I think the virtual call

621
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 11: is kind of going under the radar. That has to

622
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 11: deal with the Ohio ballot access issue. It's going to

623
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 11: obviously deal with potentially her running mate. If that call

624
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 11: has to go forward. It's a little gray about the

625
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 11: necessity of that call. But regarding the convention, I think

626
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 11: that they I don't think that they would mix it up.

627
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 11: I think they're looking for a new horse, and they

628
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 11: were concerned that the president wasn't going to be able

629
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 11: to win. And that's why we used to this.

630
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: As we spend time with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College

631
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: pulling out with some of the first swing state data

632
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: we're seeing since Joe Biden dropped out of the race,

633
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: we're waiting for a debate, Spencer, I bet you are too,

634
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 2: and it's interesting because we don't know if we're going

635
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 2: to have one now. Kamala Harris tweeting last night what

636
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: happened to anytime any place? Because Donald Trump, I guess,

637
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 2: doesn't like the venue or the network here that we

638
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 2: were looking at for the next one. Trump spokes with

639
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: Steve Chung says debate plans quote cannot be finalized until

640
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 2: Democrats formally decide on their nominee. Based on your experience,

641
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 2: do you think Trump's trying to get out of this

642
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 2: and will that have a bearing on polling and the

643
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 2: final result in November? Voters want to see these two

644
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 2: on stage together, right.

645
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 11: I would think so. I'm hoping that there'll be a debate. Obviously,

646
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 11: the last debate had tremendous impact on this race, and

647
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 11: so we'll see what the next debate might have. But

648
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 11: with that said, voters are going to kind of come

649
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 11: back after Labor Day and focus in. And we've seen

650
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 11: this previous years. If you remember sixteen years ago, John

651
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 11: McCain was up too points after his convention and ends

652
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 11: up losing to Obama by seven or eight. So we

653
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 11: see these swings in the polls when different things occur.

654
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 11: This is a big shake up and I think it's

655
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 11: going to take a few weeks for things to settle down.

656
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 2: Interesting to see no Trump Convention bump. Is that fair

657
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: to say?

658
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 8: Yeah?

659
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 11: I would say that the Biden Trump kind of got

660
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 11: his bump the previous week on the attempted assassination. You

661
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 11: saw it in the polls. He was up six points nationally.

662
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 11: We haven't seen a Republican up that much since George

663
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 11: Bush in ninety and eighty eight, So that was a

664
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 11: long you know, I was a big bump, he seems,

665
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 11: you know, with Biden dropping out on Sunday, that seems

666
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 11: to have taken away that momentum if there was momentum

667
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,839
Speaker 11: with the JD. Vans pick. And then now we're talking

668
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 11: about the Democrats.

669
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you could join. As always Spencer Kimball

670
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 2: with the breakdown on new numbers from Emerson College Polling,

671
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: where he is the director. We'll play it to the

672
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 2: panel next. Davis, by the way, says they lost by six,

673
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 2: but who's counting? This is Bloomberg.

674
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: Your listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

675
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

676
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

677
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

678
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

679
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on the Friday edition. I'm Joe

680
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, where yesterday it was all about Benjamin Nettanna,

681
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 2: who here meeting with the President of the United States.

682
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: We talked about it at length. He brought you in

683
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: the Oval Office for the pool spray, as they call it,

684
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 2: as these two sat down, not agreeing on everything these days,

685
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: certainly when it comes to a ceasefire. But there was

686
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: another meeting that Benjamin Netanya who held yesterday, and that

687
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 2: was with the Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, of course,

688
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 2: suddenly at the top of the ticket, she gets her

689
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 2: own sit down, her own one on one with Benjamin

690
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: Netan Yahoo, having an opportunity to delve into foreign policy,

691
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: and unlike the president, this is really interesting. Kamala Harris

692
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 2: spoke to the press after her meeting. We did not

693
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: hear from Joe Biden following his Here's a bit of

694
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: what she said.

695
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: It is time for this war to end, and end

696
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: in a way where Israel is secure, all the hostages

697
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: are released, the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza ends, and

698
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 3: the Palestinian people can exercise their right to freedom, dignity,

699
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 3: and self determination.

700
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 2: We assemble our panel for their take on this moment

701
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 2: in the campaign. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us.

702
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 2: Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors are signature panel and a

703
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:55,919
Speaker 2: really interesting take earlier today in Politico Genie that in fact,

704
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris is saying all of the same things, essentially

705
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 2: almost most word for word as Joe Biden, but her

706
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 2: words are being interpreted differently by Democrats here in Washington,

707
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: many of whom have been critical of Joe Biden for

708
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: the lack of a ceasefire deal for the number of

709
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 2: civilian casualties in Gaza. How does she leverage this moment

710
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: for her campaign?

711
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I agree with that assessment. I think

712
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 4: for many Democrats, we all know this has been such

713
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 4: a divisive issue, and yesterday's speech, if you will, by

714
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris was so important because it's the first time

715
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 4: we've heard her speak out in her own voice, not

716
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,280
Speaker 4: just as an emissary of Joe Biden on a foreign

717
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 4: policy issue. And what struck me was how similar it

718
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 4: was in substance to the Biden campaign or the Biden

719
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 4: administration rather, but how her words were being interpreted differently,

720
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 4: in part because her rhetoric is a bit different.

721
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 7: She was.

722
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 4: You know, it was noticed bull, for instance, that she

723
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 4: took the time to carefully read out the names of

724
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 4: each of those American hostages held by hamas she talked

725
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 4: about the fact that Israel has a right to defend itself.

726
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 4: And then she also walked this line of saying that

727
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 4: she understands and is sensitive to the amount of civilian

728
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 4: casualties and devastation in the Gaza Strip. So from that perspective,

729
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: the rhetoric was a little bit sharper, if you will,

730
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 4: than Joe Biden's has ever been, but the substance was

731
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 4: the same, and I think this is something that is

732
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 4: going to be left unresolved for Democrats. You know, that's

733
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 4: the first time and in my mind, she's walking a

734
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 4: very similar line to the Biden administration. Let's get a

735
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 4: deal done, but there's not really a different path forward

736
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 4: to doing that, if you will.

737
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 2: This is interesting to me, Rick. I wonder your thoughts

738
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 2: as we hear from a former staffer to two members

739
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 2: of the squad, Rashida Taleb and Corey Bush. This a

740
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: boss all the way, writing, Harris conveyed more sympathy for

741
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 2: the plight of civilians in Gaza than President Biden did

742
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 2: at any point. Boss is the person who led the

743
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 2: uncommitted movement in Michigan. Rick Kamala Harris really isn't saying

744
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,720
Speaker 2: much different from Joe Biden in this case issue.

745
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 10: Now, this is just situational politics. They needed a scalp

746
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 10: because they had been losing within their own caucus, the

747
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 10: Democrats on this issue. The far left, you know, disagreed

748
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 10: with the vast majority of Democrats, so they had to

749
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 10: be mad at Biden. Biden was just as empathetic for

750
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 10: the plight of civilians and Palestinians as anybody else in

751
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 10: the party was going to be. But that wasn't going

752
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 10: to be good enough for the left flank of his party,

753
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 10: and so they took it out on him, and it

754
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,959
Speaker 10: created a weakness at a time when he was trying

755
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 10: to consolidate the party. So they did some pretty good

756
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 10: damage to Joe Biden at the time. Now you know

757
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 10: he's gone along the King Kamala Harris has done a

758
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 10: much better job than anybody expected her to consolidate the

759
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 10: Democratic Party in less than a week, and they are

760
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 10: attributing the exact same statement she's making that Biden made

761
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 10: to being a new look and frankly, an amazing opportunity

762
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:22,760
Speaker 10: for her to seem like she's different than Joe Biden,

763
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 10: which is a positive politically, without actually taking any risk

764
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 10: to do it.

765
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 2: Well, I suspecially seem pretty different than Donald Trump on

766
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: this issue if they get on a debate stage, Genie,

767
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 2: and I'd like to hear your thoughts well from both

768
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 2: of you on this. I thought we had a debate.

769
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 2: Everybody was a tough guy a minute ago. The Trump

770
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 2: campaign now refusing to debate with Kamala Harris because she's

771
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: not officially the nominee. Trump spokes with Stephen Chung, issuing

772
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,959
Speaker 2: a statement here that plans cannot be finalized quote until

773
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 2: Democrats formally decide on their nominee, knowing of course, that

774
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: well the debate was set for September, nominating process happens

775
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 2: in August. Harris posting on X in response, what happened

776
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 2: at anytime any place, Genny, will there be one?

777
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 4: Let us hope? I am hoping there will be. You know,

778
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 4: it's fascinating because Donald Trump was willing to debate Joe

779
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 4: Biden when he wasn't nothing better than she is the

780
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 4: presumptive nominee. And so you see Kamala Harris there showing

781
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 4: up little yeah, showing a little bit of bravado. You

782
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 4: know what happened to anywhere?

783
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 6: Anytime? Any place.

784
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 4: I suspect it depends in part on where we are

785
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 4: poll wise and everything else, whether this goes forward and

786
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 4: what the rules of something like this look like. You know,

787
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 4: I've heard from people on the Democrat side who say

788
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 4: that they don't know if this is something that Kamala

789
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,399
Speaker 4: Harris should do, but I am sure hoping that she does.

790
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 4: And I think looking at the last debate, it can

791
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 4: change a lot in these races. So we do have

792
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,800
Speaker 4: Americans really deserve to hear from both of them together.

793
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 2: What do you think about this one? Rick, who has

794
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: more to lose? Will there be a debate?

795
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 10: Well, I didn't think Joe Biden should debate Donald Trump,

796
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 10: which turned out to be a disaster. And I got

797
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 10: to tell you, I think they are high five in

798
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 10: each other down in mar Lago. I mean, Susie Wilds

799
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 10: has to be thrilled with that statement, because the last

800
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 10: thing they want to do is put Donald Trump on

801
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 10: a stage with Kamala Harris. He is not a good debater.

802
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,479
Speaker 10: He's lost virtually every debate he's ever had. He would

803
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 10: have lost the debate with Joe Biden had it not

804
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 10: had a complete collapse by Joe Biden. It was a

805
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 10: horrible debate for him. And once you see through the smoke,

806
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 10: you realize this is not the way they want to

807
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 10: conduct their campaign. They want to keep the attention on

808
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris, and they're going to do it through TV

809
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 10: and radio and social media and and and they don't

810
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 10: need to risk getting on a stage with her. And

811
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 10: so they'll find all kinds of different ways to avoid it.

812
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 10: But my bet is they avoid it to the end.

813
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 3: Well.

814
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable when you consider the money that's already being

815
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: spent in the ad wars here Maga pack, the main

816
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 2: pack supporting Trump adding thirty two million dollars in ads

817
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 2: attacking Kamala Harris through Labor Day, Genie Future Forward, the

818
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 2: big dem pack backing Harris is going to spend fifty

819
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 2: million on advertising in six states over the next three weeks.

820
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 2: This gets back to what we were talking about yesterday.

821
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: This is the race to identify Kamala Harris. Who's going

822
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 2: to win it?

823
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, the race to define Kamala Harris. And it is

824
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 4: anybody's game right now. It is a jump ball and

825
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 4: Democrats really have to catch up on this. There is

826
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 4: a great you gov poll which shows the fact that

827
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 4: voters see her policy wise as similar to Joe Biden,

828
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 4: and that is liberal and that is going to be

829
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 4: a problem for her in those key rust belt states

830
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 4: that you were just talking about. So she really needs

831
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 4: to define herself and we're hearing that, but we need

832
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 4: to hear more of that.

833
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

834
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,359
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

835
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: Prouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

836
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

837
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power here

838
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We're live from Washington, DC,

839
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 2: with our eyes on the campaign trail and today's economic data.

840
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 2: As we have been discussing both over the course of

841
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 2: two hours. Here a major moment we can all agree

842
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 2: an historic moment in American politics. Here, it's also an

843
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 2: historic moment for the media business, with hundreds of millions

844
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 2: of dollars already spent on ads, more reserved on ads,

845
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 2: and even more we'll be spent in the late fall

846
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 2: as we make our way to November, with the news

847
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: media struggling to cover this the right way. Having gone

848
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 2: through this before with a Donald Trump and a female

849
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 2: Democratic presidential candidate, we've talked a lot about the rhetoric

850
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 2: at play here, the challenges facing a news media tasked

851
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 2: with live fact checking, and of course, bearing out the

852
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,360
Speaker 2: truth here from both campaigns were joined by Jane hall

853
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 2: Back with us On Bloomberg, American University professor of Journalism

854
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 2: and Media Studies, an author of the book Politics and

855
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 2: the Media, Intersections and New Directions. Jane, welcome back. It

856
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 2: looks like a new direction for us here, but it

857
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,879
Speaker 2: also feels back to the future in a way, as

858
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 2: we're reminded of some of the rhetoric that Donald Trump

859
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 2: has been using on the campaign trail, referring to Kamala

860
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:45,320
Speaker 2: Harris as dumb as a rock, as a radical wants

861
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: to be the president for savage criminals and illegal aliens.

862
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 2: So what extent is this going to resonate with voters

863
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 2: having already heard some of this stuff before, and how

864
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: should the news media be covering it.

865
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 6: It is in some way back to the future, but

866
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 6: I think that this is a very different moment in

867
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 6: the media and in our politics then when Hillary Clinton

868
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 6: had to figure out whether to call out Donald Trump

869
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 6: for literally circling her on the stage. Kamba Harris is

870
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 6: clearly moving to define herself and out rank and outrace

871
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 6: Donald Trump and trying to tie her to the policies

872
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 6: of the Biden Harris administration. And what's very interesting to

873
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 6: me is that if they do debate and she's calling

874
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 6: for that split screen, she will be far more effective,

875
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 6: of course than Joe Biden was able to be. But

876
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,439
Speaker 6: she also I will be very interested to see how

877
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 6: she says that she's going to prosecute the case. You know,

878
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 6: if the news media call him out and ask him,

879
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 6: how do you feel being called a seventy eight year

880
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 6: old criminal, they're clearly going to ask her how do

881
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 6: you feel being called the DEI higher? You know, that

882
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 6: was one of the things that happened in the debate,

883
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,720
Speaker 6: and I think it's what's going to be interesting to see,

884
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 6: is are the media going to ask her and him

885
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 6: about the terrible things that are already racist, sexist, misogynist.

886
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 8: You know.

887
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 6: I think the other thing is that they don't seem

888
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 6: to really know how to deal with a woman candidate.

889
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,439
Speaker 6: They seem to have been caught flat footed. He said,

890
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 6: I'm not going to be nice. He's deliberately mispronouncing her name,

891
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 6: and that all reads as kind of a redo of

892
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 6: Barack Obama in many ways, saying that he was not

893
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 6: a legitimate citizen, the Birther thing that happened. I mean,

894
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 6: I think that the fact that they're being warned not

895
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 6: to be racist and sexist and they may not be

896
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 6: able to keep Trump from doing that, is in Kambally

897
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 6: Harris's favor, ultimately remarkable.

898
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: It seems the Speaker of the House knows what you're

899
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 2: talking about. We heard about this Mike Johnson and Representative

900
00:48:56,000 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: Richard Hudson, who chairs the NRCC tasked with getting republic elected,

901
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 2: asking members to cool the rhetoric. They can't do this

902
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,439
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump, but they did ask rank and file

903
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 2: members of the House Republican members to stop with the

904
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,720
Speaker 2: DEI hire to your point, I think it was. Glenn Grothman,

905
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 2: Representative Republican from Wisconsin, said that she was the likely

906
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 2: nominee quote because of her ethnic background. This is part

907
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 2: of the composite that you're talking about here. And it's

908
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 2: one thing to cool it off in the House. It's

909
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 2: a different thing for Donald Trump. You just said. He

910
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 2: just said yesterday, I'm not going to stop being critical

911
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 2: of Kamala Harris. So what are we in for.

912
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 6: Well, I think we're in for a campaign that is

913
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 6: going to be fought very very strongly. As you all

914
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 6: mentioned in the ads, the right wing media are clearly

915
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 6: going to try to tie her to what is a

916
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 6: big issue for them. Immigration. I mean, that's one where

917
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 6: I think she's vulnerable because she was tasked with that

918
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 6: and she's you know, they're going to make the point

919
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,800
Speaker 6: that a bipartisan bill didn't pass because of Donald Trump.

920
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 6: But she's going to be smeared in the right wing media.

921
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 6: Fox News is going to go after her. Trump is

922
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 6: going to go after her. But what she has in

923
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 6: her favor, I believe is that the policies that have

924
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 6: been enacted, the overturn of Roe v. Wade, of the

925
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:21,800
Speaker 6: Supreme Court policies that they can frame as anti women,

926
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 6: anti women of color. I think she's already benefiting also

927
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 6: from all the memes in the social media. You can't

928
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 6: buy that that is organic young people saying this is exciting.

929
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 6: You know, she's going to have to win over people

930
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 6: beyond young people, but she's clearly already moving ahead among

931
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 6: voters on the Democratic side. And you know, there are

932
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 6: a lot of women over fifty who are a huge component.

933
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 6: They aren't talked about as much, but there are a

934
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 6: lot of women who don't like seeing another woman derided

935
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 6: that way. Forget whether it's racist or misogynist or both.

936
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 6: I mean, I think they got a real problem if

937
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 6: they try to link her that way. And I think,

938
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 6: as I've said, it's going to be out there, whether

939
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 6: it's stated explicitly or whether it's under the radar, And

940
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 6: she has an opportunity to reframe that just by saying

941
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:15,839
Speaker 6: this is what I've done, you know, this is who

942
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 6: I've been.

943
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: Sure it goes both ways. Of course you may not

944
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 2: find an equivalency here, but what do you make of

945
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 2: the whole weird talk of the Democrats describing Republicans. It

946
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 2: got to the point now where ABC News even wrote

947
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 2: this up Democrats new line of attack on Republicans. You're

948
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 2: being weird. This goes back to something that Kamala Harris

949
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 2: said back in twenty sixteen, if Trump had followed her

950
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 2: around the stage, something that you brought up earlier. But

951
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: we're getting now. Governor Tim Wallas of Minnesota, supposedly on

952
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 2: the short list for vice president, saying this on MSNBC

953
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, these are weird people on the other side.

954
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 2: They want to take books away, be in your exam room.

955
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 2: These are weird ideas? Is weird the new deplorable?

956
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 6: Oh that's a very good point. I hope everybody knows.

957
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 6: You're referring to Hillary Clinton's remarks about a basketfull of

958
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 6: deplorables that she said. I think that personally, I think

959
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 6: going after anybody who's a voter, who is on any

960
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 6: side and calling them weird is not exactly the way

961
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 6: to win. You can say they have weird ideas, you know.

962
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 6: Unfortunately for the Republicans, jd Vance has been called out

963
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 6: and video has been shown where he talks about women,

964
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:38,879
Speaker 6: you know, the phrase, you know, childless cat ladies. I mean,

965
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 6: I think that some of that is going to be

966
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 6: talked about as being weird. But you know, I do

967
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,720
Speaker 6: see an equivalency. I mean, I don't think you should

968
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,280
Speaker 6: be demonizing any voter if you want to get elected.

969
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 6: I think what Democrats have been hoping for is somebody

970
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 6: who could talk about what they've done and also take

971
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 6: the fight to Donald Trump. I mean, that is what

972
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 6: I think she is highly capable of doing.

973
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 2: Well. Just like that, our crack a team of producers

974
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: has brought us a piece of tape to show what

975
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 2: we're talking about and a couple of voices we're going

976
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 2: to hear. Let's listen.

977
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 6: Doc seems to be drifting away from his own nominee

978
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,760
Speaker 6: because he's had so many weird views that he's expressed.

979
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 1: I see Donald Trump talking about the wonderful Hannibal elector

980
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: or whatever weird thing he's on tonight that needs to.

981
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 10: And what was weird was him joking about racism today

982
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:30,799
Speaker 10: and then talking about diet mountain dew.

983
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 6: Who drinks diet mountain dew?

984
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 2: So you have Governors Pritzker and Waltz talking there earlier. Look,

985
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,879
Speaker 2: I realized this is part of the game here, Jane.

986
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 2: Obviously you need a thick skin to be in politics.

987
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 2: But the Democrats. Is Kamala harristy to call off the

988
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 2: dogs the way Speaker Johnson did in the House.

989
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,839
Speaker 6: Well, you know, that's such an interesting question. I you know,

990
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 6: I personally, you know, I come from a part of

991
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 6: the state where there are a lot of Republican voters.

992
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 6: I'm not sure I think you can. You can go

993
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 6: after jd Vance just as jd Vance is going to

994
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 6: go after after Kamala Harris. I mean, people use their

995
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:12,240
Speaker 6: vice presidents as attack dogs. I hate to use that phrase,

996
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 6: but you know, I'm just I'm conservative on this. I think,

997
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,839
Speaker 6: talk about what jd Vance said, talk about the policies,

998
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 6: take take the stance that Trump wants to take women

999
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 6: back and people of color back. But but you know,

1000
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 6: I I think it's early to say. But but to

1001
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 6: call any voter weird in my mind, you know, you

1002
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 6: can say jd Vance is weird or jd Vance's ideas

1003
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,320
Speaker 6: are weird. That's going to resonate because he's got a

1004
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 6: he's got a trail, a video that is very odd

1005
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 6: in terms of women and children. It's just true.

1006
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: Well, if you were watching, uh, you know, the Milwaukee

1007
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 2: convention on that Thursday night, to see how Cogan ripping

1008
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 2: his shirt off. In the whole experience, you might have

1009
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 2: different ideas about who they were trying to reach and

1010
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 2: what exactly the message was in prime time. I'm there, Jane,

1011
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 2: I have to ask you and way and if you

1012
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 2: want in our last couple of minutes. But if if

1013
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 2: we'd known about this Kamala Harris top of the ticket

1014
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:12,439
Speaker 2: before Donald Trump chose jd Vance, would he have gone

1015
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 2: with a different running mate?

1016
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 6: Ooh man, you're asking such good questions. In my opinion, Uh,

1017
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 6: you know, I don't know. I think he went for

1018
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:24,439
Speaker 6: somebody that he thought, you know, would be a red

1019
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 6: meat person. I don't know if they would have made

1020
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 6: a different choice. You know, they could have gotten Nicky

1021
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 6: Haley to run. They might have had a stronger ticket.

1022
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley, Tim Scott. I just wonder if they had

1023
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 2: gone in a direction other than another white man. Imagine

1024
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 2: the debate between Kamala Harris and e least Aphonic or

1025
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:46,720
Speaker 2: whomever Kamala Harris's running mate would be something to consider,

1026
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: isn't it?

1027
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 6: Well, it is we're into a whole gender thing. I mean,

1028
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 6: Hauk Hogan's you know, as the definition of men in

1029
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,439
Speaker 6: this country, you know. I mean, that's an argument that's very,

1030
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 6: very interesting in terms of gender and media. You know,

1031
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:05,320
Speaker 6: she's organizing why people men for Kamala. I mean, they're

1032
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 6: very candily going for a broader audience than might be

1033
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 6: perceived as being the narrow appeal that the Republicans are

1034
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 6: going to try to say she has.

1035
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 2: We started this with a conversation about media coverage. How

1036
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 2: important is it for these two to debate, Jane, because

1037
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 2: it looks like we're dancing around this idea. Now Kamala

1038
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 2: Harris is saying what happened to any time anywhere? Donald

1039
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 2: Trump says we need an official nominee. This isn't gonna happen.

1040
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 7: Is it?

1041
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:32,800
Speaker 2: Well?

1042
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 6: I don't know, you know, I I'm not sure what

1043
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 6: I would advise. I mean, I think Kamala Harris is

1044
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 6: smart enough to know the traps for a woman. Women

1045
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 6: still have traps if they're too strident, if their voice

1046
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,319
Speaker 6: is wrong. I mean, Hillary Clinton endured an awful lot

1047
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 6: of this, so you know, I think it would be

1048
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 6: to her advantage to be able to talk about what

1049
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 6: her administration has done. I don't see any advantage to

1050
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 6: his doing it other than I mean, I cannot imagine

1051
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:05,839
Speaker 6: how anybody advising him would he managed to hold it

1052
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 6: together in an hour and a half with Joe Biden.

1053
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,360
Speaker 6: I mean, he has a record of going off the rails,

1054
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,840
Speaker 6: particularly around women. I would not advise him to debate

1055
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 6: with her. Maybe she can debate an empty chair, you know,

1056
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 6: maybe they'll figure out some way that they can talk

1057
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:23,959
Speaker 6: about how he isn't willing to debate her.

1058
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 2: That's to the hour. Rick Davis said the same thing, Jane.

1059
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 2: It's great to have you back. We appreciate it as always,

1060
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 2: Jane Hall of American University. Of the book is Politics

1061
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: and the Media, Intersections and New Directions, and boy, we

1062
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 2: are taking a new direction here, it seems. Thanks for

1063
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to

1064
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 2: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever

1065
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live

1066
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg

1067
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 2: dot com.