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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: betting show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Meulman. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my bff, Mike Companion,

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Speaker 1: Mykefadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing? My brother?

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Speaker 1: You got your special Eagles shirt on. I love when

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Speaker 1: the ESPN headline stack is all about what Howie Roseman

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Speaker 1: is saying, and just that he keeps repeating the same

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Speaker 1: sentence over and over, which is AJ Brown is a

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Speaker 1: member of the Philadelphia Eagles, which, as an Eagles fan,

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Speaker 1: you got to be thinking as we head out of

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Speaker 1: sort of the beginning stages of NFL offseason and get

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Speaker 1: deep into NFL draft stages, which is what we're going

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Speaker 1: to be talking about today. I love that the NFL

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Speaker 1: so dominates that Howie Roseman's repeated comments about AJ brown

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Speaker 1: status is one of the top headlines on ESPN dot

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Speaker 1: com this past week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the click business, Chad. You're in the click business.

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Speaker 3: We're not total sellouts, thank god, though, Like you've never

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Speaker 3: told me to say something to go viral or anything

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Speaker 3: like that, honestly, which is a blessing.

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Speaker 2: But that's what a lot of media is.

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Speaker 3: Right. There's a lot of people in sports media where

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Speaker 3: again I'll never put a name out there because it's

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Speaker 3: never a good look to just talk down on people.

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Speaker 3: There are some people that I truly think are horrible

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Speaker 3: for the sports media, spreading lies and it just gets

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Speaker 3: people going, and it's just it's such a useless conversation. Now,

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Speaker 3: the Aja Brown talk, it started last year, right, and

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Speaker 3: I kept saying to you, the money doesn't make sense,

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Speaker 3: the egos that they're trading. Before last season, it was

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Speaker 3: gonna be like fifty million in dead cap. Well, you

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Speaker 3: played the season. You heard he was be traded at

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Speaker 3: the deadline all season.

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Speaker 2: It didn't happen. They kept him. Now there was drama.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, right, there is smoke with his fire. But once

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Speaker 3: again people are acting like he's gonna be traded again.

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Speaker 3: It's it's a dead cat move. So well, how we

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Speaker 3: do it? I think it's after like June first, instead

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Speaker 3: of being thirty million a dead cap, it's like under

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Speaker 3: twenty million. Yeah, Like to me, Miles Garrett and Max Crosby.

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Speaker 3: Those type of moves make sense. If the Patriots want

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Speaker 3: to give up a first round pick for AJ, who's

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Speaker 3: you know, twenty nine years old, Stills a couple of

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Speaker 3: good years ahead of him, Yeah, that makes sense. But

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Speaker 3: I loved how he's comments because it's it's basically what

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Speaker 3: it always.

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Speaker 2: Is going to be, right.

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Speaker 3: It's like, I'm not gonna give anything because there's no

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Speaker 3: there's no benefit to it, saying with AJ Browns Campe,

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Speaker 3: you haven't heard AJ go on Twitter or go on

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Speaker 3: Instagram demanding a trade because it would hurt his value.

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Speaker 2: And he's just not that type of guy.

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Speaker 3: He's the captain of the Eagles, He's one of the

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Speaker 3: five captains, so he as an Eagles fan. I told

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Speaker 3: Jow was very bitter after the playoffs those three drops,

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Speaker 3: but now the cooler hell heads have prevailed. No, I

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Speaker 3: don't want to move Age. I want to have him

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Speaker 3: and Demonte Smith. They're really good receivers. So yeah, this offseason,

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Speaker 3: it's all about the clicks. It's the dead part of

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Speaker 3: the year. So to me, Eagles fans like me, we

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Speaker 3: get mad, we get riled up. We're going to click

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Speaker 3: on stuff to read it to see if there's any

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Speaker 3: truth to any of it. But someone that again is

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Speaker 3: in the business and talks to people, it's like everyone

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Speaker 3: I talk to is just like, no, it's not gonna

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Speaker 3: happen at least nine until June. So yeah, if you're

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Speaker 3: New England Radio, Newing Patriots Radio, you need something to

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Speaker 3: talk about for three months, right, So aj Brown coming

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Speaker 3: to your hopeful team.

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Speaker 2: I think it makes perfect sense.

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Speaker 3: But I'm sure you're as a fan of the Bears,

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Speaker 3: if you're here every week that Kayleb Williams is on

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Speaker 3: the trading block, you'd just be like, this is stupid.

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Speaker 2: So that's right.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what's funny is when I didn't think

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Speaker 1: I was teeing you up to get angry about media

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Speaker 1: and give a media critique, I actually was thinking so

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Speaker 1: thing entirely different, which is that's the kind of aura

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Speaker 1: and respect and respect and mysticism that surrounds Howie at

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Speaker 1: this point. He's been such a brilliant GM and such

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Speaker 1: a master of manipulating the cap and building a roster

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Speaker 1: that even when he's saying one thing about a star player,

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Speaker 1: and I know this has been an ongoing drama, so

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Speaker 1: there is interest in it that becomes news is like

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Speaker 1: he's reached the levels of GM where everyone expects him

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Speaker 1: to figure something out that will make his team better

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Speaker 1: and pull a rabbit out of the hat in ways

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Speaker 1: that other gms just can't do. That. To me, what

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Speaker 1: was interesting to me that was the signal to me

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Speaker 1: about the story, not a media critique, that there's just

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Speaker 1: nothing else to do, so they're going to make noise

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Speaker 1: about how he.

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Speaker 3: I don't get it, Like, to me, there is a

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Speaker 3: ton drama. You brought up the referee drama. There is

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Speaker 3: a lot of stuff to talk about that. So I

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Speaker 3: don't get why they keep betting a dead horse. But

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Speaker 3: they have to get clicks. Obviously they're getting clicks. That's

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Speaker 3: they keep talking about it. So to me, this is

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Speaker 3: as someone's a football fan, this is like one of

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Speaker 3: the best weeks because you get a lot of interviews

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Speaker 3: with coaches, owners. It's a great week if you're a

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Speaker 3: football nut like me and you want to hear people

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Speaker 3: talk who don't really talk. So you know, you literally

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Speaker 3: had Sean McVay, who hadn't talked about that two point

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Speaker 3: conversion against Seattle, literally talking you know, about it with

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Speaker 3: the head coach at yat and it's like, this is

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Speaker 3: the best. These two guys don't like each other in

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Speaker 3: the same division, they haven't talked at all, and now

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Speaker 3: they're talking about a two point play that is decided

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Speaker 3: potentially the Super Bowl winners. So yeah, these winner meetings,

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Speaker 3: I know, people poop o them. I love it, like

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Speaker 3: I can't get enough, and I'm all into all the drum.

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Speaker 3: I'm reading everything I can because it's a really interesting

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Speaker 3: time and you know, there's a lot of stuff going

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Speaker 3: on behind the scenes. So yeah, eighteen game schedule replacement

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Speaker 3: refs Chad. There's there's a lot going on right now

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Speaker 3: in the NFL if you're a fan of it, and

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Speaker 3: obviously the draft what we're about to talk about, which

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Speaker 3: is the best two three weeks it's here people, So yeah,

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Speaker 3: time is time is moving pretty quick here in the

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Speaker 3: all season.

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Speaker 1: Let's freaking do it because we're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: the draft with the help of a very special guest,

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Speaker 1: a grizzled veteran over at Betting Pros, co host of

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Speaker 1: the very popular Fantasy Pros Football podcast right here in

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Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. If you're not listening to that,

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Speaker 1: you might be the only person because that show does massive,

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Speaker 1: massive numbers. Most importantly, absolute fanatic, fanatic about betting the

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Speaker 1: NFL Draft and all of the trials and tribulations that

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Speaker 1: come with betting the NFL draft. Not like you know

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Speaker 1: who's the best offensive lineman who grated out at the

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Speaker 1: combine on the second day of workouts, I mean betting

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Speaker 1: the NFL draft, where the opportunities. Welcome to the show,

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Speaker 1: Derek Brown.

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Speaker 2: Guys, thank you all for having me.

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Speaker 4: And I'm sitting here in the green room and just

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Speaker 4: nodding my head at all the Howie talk and all

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Speaker 4: this kind of stuff. And I'm giving Simon the business

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Speaker 4: on the Eagles before we but I have to be

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Speaker 4: honest here outside of given him crap about stuff. I

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Speaker 4: do have a sign Jalen Hurt's jersey on my wall

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Speaker 4: in my office for a large sum.

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Speaker 2: Of money that I won.

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Speaker 4: Betting Eagles and things like that, so I will come

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Speaker 4: clean here.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what, we appreciate that. We appreciate you. You're

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Speaker 1: agnostic when it comes to winning, because clearly that's what

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Speaker 1: matters in the end. But here's something else what people

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Speaker 1: don't know, and this to me is fascinating. Before you

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Speaker 1: were doing any of this media stuff. You were working

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Speaker 1: as a pediatric nurse at Saint Jude's in Louisiana. That

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Speaker 1: feels like it's really her job to do. And then

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Speaker 1: how do you make that transition?

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Speaker 4: Oh, guys, a lot of part time work, a lot

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Speaker 4: of time where I never thought this would be a

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Speaker 4: reality where currently I'm sitting in and Jim shorts and

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Speaker 4: we're talking about football and that's how I provide money

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Speaker 4: for my family. So long, hard road, fought guys, where

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Speaker 4: you're doing anything and all things just to get your

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Speaker 4: takes in front of eyes. And then at the end

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Speaker 4: of the day, when you end up doing this for

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Speaker 4: a job, you're like, really, anybody cares about what.

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Speaker 2: I got to say? Okay, cool, let's rock it. Let's

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Speaker 2: rock it.

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Speaker 4: So it's been a long winding road, but yes, from

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Speaker 4: the medical streets to football twenty four to seven. Really,

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's been one of those things where it

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Speaker 4: was a hobby and a passion and I feel blessed

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Speaker 4: to do it every day.

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Speaker 1: What was it like being a pediatric nurse?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Man, you talk about things that were incredibly rewarding and something.

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Speaker 4: When I got into that field, I thought I was

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Speaker 4: gonna do it until they rolled me off of the

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Speaker 4: hospital floor in a wheelchair. I thought I was going

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Speaker 4: to do that until I was sixty or seventy or something.

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Speaker 4: Loved it with every ounce of my being, especially with

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Speaker 4: the population of kids that I got the chance to

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Speaker 4: be a part of the you know, of these kids

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Speaker 4: in these families lives for multiple years. You get close

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Speaker 4: to people, and you get invested, and really it really

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Speaker 4: means something, so a lot of respect everybody in the

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Speaker 4: medical field.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so random. It's so random that that you're

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Speaker 1: on the show today. Yesterday one of our neighbors came

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Speaker 1: over in the morning and her and my wife were

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Speaker 1: going to take the dogs for a walk, and we

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Speaker 1: started talking about the medical field. Her husband is in

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Speaker 1: the medical field, and about people who which is not us,

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Speaker 1: people who are like so warm and loving, like they

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Speaker 1: they just have to be so selfless, right, And she

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Speaker 1: started talking about how like when her kids were born,

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Speaker 1: the nurses who were so warm and happy and excited

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Speaker 1: that these babies were born and they weren't their babies.

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Speaker 1: They were never going to see these kids again, but

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Speaker 1: like you could tell, like the genuine thrill they were

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Speaker 1: getting just being in the room and being able to

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Speaker 1: take care of these kids. That's who's doing that. That's you,

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Speaker 1: Derek Brown.

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Speaker 4: It's one of those things with nursing people really say,

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Speaker 4: you know, there's a lot of fields in the world

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Speaker 4: where you get into it because you love what you

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Speaker 4: do and you believe in what you're doing. And it's

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Speaker 4: not about money, it's not about all these different things

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Speaker 4: because if you did if you did it with that

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Speaker 4: being the onus of why you're doing it, then you

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Speaker 4: wouldn't be doing it. So it's one of those things

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Speaker 4: you truly, at the end of the day, I got

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Speaker 4: into it. And one of the things that you know

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Speaker 4: it translates over to this field and talking about football,

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Speaker 4: is whether we're trying to make people better in one way, shape,

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Speaker 4: form or fashion, or trying to educate people like I

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Speaker 4: wanted to do things with my life where I felt

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Speaker 4: at the end of the day I was helping people

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Speaker 4: in some way, in some way.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, welcome to the dark side where we're generally

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Speaker 1: mercenaries and care about nothing other than winning and ourselves

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Speaker 1: and the people that can help us win today, Derek Brown,

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Speaker 1: that is you before we get into it. Like for

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Speaker 1: the uninitiated, the NFL Draft a totally unique betting event, volatile,

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Speaker 1: unpredictable roller coaster for betters more so than fans even

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Speaker 1: Like from your point of view, how has and simon

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Speaker 1: you two, how is betting the draft changed since legalization?

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Speaker 1: Because there have definitely been like big big changes the

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Speaker 1: volume of markets, the timing and availability, the availability those

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Speaker 1: market markets, the odds, and the pricing. Both of you. Derek,

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Speaker 1: let's start with you give us your sense of the

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Speaker 1: changes that have been taking place.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the first few years we got this and

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Speaker 4: I've been betting the NFL Draft for the last four years,

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Speaker 4: covering the league full time for the last six and

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Speaker 4: you've seen the market shrink and you really have to

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Speaker 4: be strategic in bets. Like I One of my best

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Speaker 4: years in betting the NFL Draft was the year that

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Speaker 4: Jade Daniels came out and that quarterback class. Having him

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Speaker 4: as my QB one, I was able to make a

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Speaker 4: lot of money early with betting him as being like

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Speaker 4: the second overall pick and kind of forecasting that versus

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Speaker 4: the market, leveraging where I was versus that with information

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Speaker 4: and what have you, and you just you don't get

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Speaker 4: as much of that now. Where you don't get lines

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Speaker 4: that are dropping for the NFL Draft as early as

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Speaker 4: they did before. And a lot of that is obviously

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Speaker 4: the books wised up after a few years. They're like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: we're not dropping this stuff as early as we did

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Speaker 4: before because that didn't work out well. So to a

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Speaker 4: lot of the things you're speaking about, like the volume

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Speaker 4: of bets that you're able to make even right now

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Speaker 4: versus what you're able to do a week before the draft,

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Speaker 4: and it depending on you know, you get more bet

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Speaker 4: players out there in drafting positions in different ways that

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Speaker 4: you can at it. It's definitely changed over the last

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Speaker 4: three to four years where it's got more constricted. You

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Speaker 4: have less books or some books that are pulling back

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Speaker 4: because obviously they've probably just taken a bath for the

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Speaker 4: first few years of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Simon, you and I have talked about

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Speaker 1: this a couple of times, and we go back. Our

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Speaker 1: favorite betting story is you having a sweat will Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones go third or lower in the draft, and you

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Speaker 1: were heavy on him going lower because of intel you

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Speaker 1: were getting despite what the reporting was. But these markets,

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Speaker 1: like a lot has changed even in the five years

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Speaker 1: since Mac Jones was drafted.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the worst part is, you know

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Speaker 3: what we're talking about here, They just the first couple

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Speaker 3: of years, they just wanted to be the first ones

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Speaker 3: out of their lines.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: You saw the wind tolls this year, Right, books are

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Speaker 3: putting it out as soon as they can. They want

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Speaker 3: that first initial wave. They want that first action for

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Speaker 3: the other books because most people aren't going to make

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Speaker 3: one or two of those bets, right, and then you're

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Speaker 3: done until said draft or until opening season.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: So it's changed in the sense they're not so quick

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Speaker 3: to get that money because they have been crushed and

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Speaker 3: it is way tighter. And to me, it makes me

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Speaker 3: hyper focused on certain lines where I really do just

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Speaker 3: play into the quarterbacks. To me, that's the easiest way

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Speaker 3: for me to get info. I, you know, am pretty

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Speaker 3: locked in a lot of teams and not like a

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Speaker 3: lot of people in the business. And especially if that

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Speaker 3: bet the draft, like that's their that's their thing, right,

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Speaker 3: People that really lean in the drafts and bet props

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Speaker 3: from the football season, the draft is a whole other

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Speaker 3: season for him, right, they really get into it. It's

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Speaker 3: come even harder now to make money doing it, especially

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Speaker 3: in clean markets, So yeah to me, you know, you

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Speaker 3: already know my position. I took a heavy one on

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Speaker 3: Mendoza and that was tough. Where it's like to get

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Speaker 3: fifty k down, you know, I'm having to use a

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Speaker 3: lot of different people, different amounts of money, getting limited going,

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Speaker 3: going in person, having to go every day or every

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Speaker 3: time they switch the counter people, which means I have

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Speaker 3: to have a guy set at the books, like, hey,

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Speaker 3: she just wroteated it out. If you want coming, it's

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Speaker 3: a new person at the counter. If you want to

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Speaker 3: come betted again. A lot of that just to get

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Speaker 3: maybe five hundred er thousand dollars down.

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Speaker 2: Chad like, it's a ton of work for such a

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Speaker 2: limited amount.

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Speaker 3: Where I joke with the Super Bowl, I could go

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Speaker 3: on there that morning and bet if you wanted to

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Speaker 3: a million dollars on a side, they're happy to take it.

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Speaker 2: So that's the tough part. It's so hard to get.

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Speaker 3: Maximize your profits and your money on the draft. But

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Speaker 3: I love it because it is so much here saying

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Speaker 3: like Chad said that those certain drafts where I'm getting

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Speaker 3: info and the media is totally wrong and I can capitalize.

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Speaker 2: On that, and I always say I will give it

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Speaker 2: on the show.

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Speaker 3: As long as I'm getting my money in and getting

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Speaker 3: the right number, I'm happy to give it out to people.

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Speaker 3: But that's honestly getting tougher as we get. We keep

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Speaker 3: moving along here, like teams are getting tighter. That old

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Speaker 3: wave they are kind of leaving the league now and

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Speaker 3: this new younger wave they are very much tighter.

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Speaker 2: Don't leak as much stuff.

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Speaker 3: And you know I told you to have My biggest

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Speaker 3: fear is always getting the head fake right. Somebody giving

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Speaker 3: me bad info costed me a lot of money. So

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Speaker 3: the draft, I can tell you, I try to be

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Speaker 3: more patient. And you know, like Derek here, I want

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Speaker 3: to hear from smart people that are betting it a lot.

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Speaker 3: Like I want to hear people what they're taking position

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Speaker 3: on because if I like something and he says he

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Speaker 3: likes it too, maybe I'll hit it again.

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Speaker 2: Like that's what I'm looking for.

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Speaker 3: I want to hear other people's thoughts, and if he

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Speaker 3: says something I disagree with it, I'm not gonna just

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Speaker 3: shun his opinion. I'm gonna relok at my position and

337
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Speaker 3: be like, oh, I'm misreading this totally. I remember I

338
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 3: think it was a Freeman we had last year he

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Speaker 3: was telling how the quarterbacks, you know we're going to

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Speaker 3: drop in the draft, and you know we could get

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Speaker 3: Dart in the first round. He wasn't gonna be a

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Speaker 3: second rounder. Sure enough, he went, what a twenty chat?

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Speaker 3: So that's the info you're looking for. You want to

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Speaker 3: hear people who have a good read on it. The

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Speaker 3: media has a wrong read of and you can get

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Speaker 3: huge value. So yeah, it's it's tight lines. People like

347
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Speaker 3: if you want to get bets down. As soon as

348
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Speaker 3: we talk about it and you hear it here, you

349
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Speaker 3: kind of want to bet it.

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Speaker 2: You don't want to wait.

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Speaker 3: Because stuff can move huge, huge movement, like we've seen

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Speaker 3: sometimes ten rounds or ten picks, I should say, uh

353
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Speaker 3: in live movement. So it's it's really fun. It's a

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Speaker 3: fluctuating market. That's why I love betting it.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, you just said something really interesting, which is

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Speaker 1: the way information is being communicated is changing.

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Speaker 2: Derek.

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Speaker 1: I wonder from your point of view, even in the

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Speaker 1: past few years that you've been betting the draft and

360
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Speaker 1: enjoying betting the draft, are you seeing draft strategy change

361
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Speaker 1: and how teams are approaching the draft, and if so,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean for Betters.

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Speaker 4: I think you've seen how and some of this goes

364
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Speaker 4: into just the free market. I mean, let's go to

365
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Speaker 4: the biggest piece of news of relevancy over the last

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Speaker 4: few weeks, the massive contract that JSN has gotten and

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Speaker 4: what the wide receiver market.

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Speaker 2: I think that has been huge.

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Speaker 4: You look over the last like since so twenty sixteen

370
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,719
Speaker 4: to twenty nineteen, no more than four wide receivers were

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Speaker 4: selected in any one of those years, and in two

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Speaker 4: of those years only two wide receivers went in the

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Speaker 4: first round. And the reason I'm hyper focusing on the

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Speaker 4: first round is because if people are trying to get

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Speaker 4: action on the NFL Draft, that's really where you're you're

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Speaker 4: talking about. It is the first round. You don't get

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Speaker 4: a lot of other action out there where it's like

378
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Speaker 4: you can bet guys in the second and the third

379
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 4: or where they go and pick positions and stuff. We

380
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,399
Speaker 4: are hyper focused on the first round and what teams

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Speaker 4: are doing. And some of this is the market economics

382
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Speaker 4: of paying these players forty fifty million dollar contracts. So

383
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Speaker 4: wide receivers since twenty twenty those last six years, no

384
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Speaker 4: fewer than four have been taken in every first round

385
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Speaker 4: of the draft, and in five of the earth excuse me,

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Speaker 4: four of those years, at least five guys have gone.

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Speaker 4: Two years they had six guys and one year seven

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Speaker 4: wide receivers drafted. And so looking at that, yeah, the

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Speaker 4: NFL is telling us, Okay, we want again in early

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Speaker 4: and we want to get these guys on rookie contracts

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Speaker 4: and want to be like because the other part about

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Speaker 4: all of this is a lot of these talented players

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Speaker 4: aren't hitting the free agency market, where teams are locking

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Speaker 4: up some of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: And I mean we're dropping bets here live and stuff.

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Speaker 4: I mean, right now, you can get over five and

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Speaker 4: a half wide receivers at plus one eighty five plus

398
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Speaker 4: money at some books. Yeah, and this economy of wide receivers,

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Speaker 4: I'm taking that. And the other thing I'll throw in

400
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Speaker 4: here is you're seeing more teams draft offensive tackles specifically,

401
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Speaker 4: Like we can go in a lot of the markets

402
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 4: are just offensive linemen in general. But when you want

403
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Speaker 4: to dial down just to the offensive tackles and then

404
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 4: zoom out larger to the offensive line market, there's money

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Speaker 4: to be made because over the last two years, eight

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Speaker 4: tackles not even counting like centers, guys switching to guard

407
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Speaker 4: and stuff guys that were projected as tackles. Over the

408
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Speaker 4: last two years, eight of them have been taken and

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Speaker 4: back to back years and now you can get the line.

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Speaker 4: Last time I look was at seven seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, both of those give me the overs because

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Speaker 4: history is showing in a lot of these markets. And

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Speaker 4: again going back to the economics of the NFL, Tyra Linderbaum,

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Speaker 4: like other interior offensive linemen when they look at the

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Speaker 4: franchise tags or getting bucketed into getting paid like tackles,

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Speaker 4: and some guys at the top of their position are

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Speaker 4: getting paid like tackles. It's changing the economics and what

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Speaker 4: teams are focusing on in the draft.

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Speaker 1: All right, those are two great points. Let's do a

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00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 1: quick message from hard Rock because I got an important

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00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:12,480
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Speaker 1: have won one hundred bucks on your first bet, now

439
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440
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Speaker 1: the hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started.

441
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Speaker 1: Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered

442
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: by Seminoal hard Rock at Digital LC and all other states.

443
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,

444
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and

445
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, Call one eight

446
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: free three play wise. In Indiana, if you or some

447
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: of you know has a gambling problem and wants help,

448
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 1: call one eight hundred nine with it. In Ohio, call

449
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: one eight hundred miles reset gambling problem called one eight

450
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee,

451
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,400
Speaker 1: or Virginia. All right, so you just dropped two great

452
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: facts about bets. You want to make over five and

453
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 1: a half receivers over on offensive tackles specifically, and you're

454
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 1: doing it based on what past history and how some

455
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: of these players are now getting paid. How much do

456
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 1: you lean into when you're doing your research on those

457
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: kind of metrics and that kind of information versus what

458
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 1: you're hearing in the marketplace and studying and sort of

459
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: trying to glean from rumors and innuendo.

460
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 4: I think you're trying to put paint the most complete

461
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 4: picture you can with all of that and a lot

462
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 4: of this going back to a previous point we're discussing

463
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 4: is right now. I'm not going to say we're in

464
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 4: lying season, but we're in the board time where we're

465
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 4: seeing a lot of I'm not gonna say pundits, but media,

466
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 4: the media consortium pushing up certain players. A lot of

467
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 4: this intel is coming from agents and what have you

468
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 4: and stuff, So it's a two pronged approach. It's looking

469
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 4: at market trends of what the NFL is showing us.

470
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 4: Because the media and the NFL and everything they could

471
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 4: talk their talk and now have the heck Coaching Meeting

472
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 4: and all that kind of stuff and things that will kind.

473
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: Of leak out through that.

474
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 4: Teams tell you what the real of it is with

475
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 4: their moves, whether that's free agency or the NFL Draft.

476
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: So I think it's trying to paint a complete picture.

477
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 4: But this also goes back to.

478
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 2: What are you what are you hearing?

479
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 4: Is that from a trusted source or somebody that you

480
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 4: know in the business, in the league and what have you,

481
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 4: versus what is getting sprayed out there, you know, via

482
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 4: the media, and trying to make the most sense of it.

483
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 4: So for me, it's truck. It's talking to people that

484
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 4: I trust around the league as well as looking at,

485
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 4: you know, the team needs and honestly, like the last

486
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 4: few years of the draft, so it's it's I mean,

487
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 4: I know, I'm kind of talking out both sides of

488
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 4: my mouth, but it's really just trying to lean on

489
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 4: the totality of the of the overall picture.

490
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: How do you guys know, and Simon, you and I

491
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: have talked about this and you just mentioned it. We

492
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: all get reached out to buy people in in professional sports,

493
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: and we all have a relationship ships and in situations

494
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: like this, specifically around the draft, how do you know

495
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: when someone's giving you a headfach and trying to use

496
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: the relationship to get you Simon or you Derek to

497
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: talk about it on your shows, or how do you

498
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: know that they're giving you real intel that is going

499
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: to be actionable. Simon, you go first.

500
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: Like you said, it's tough in the early relationship where

501
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 3: this is my twelve or thirteen season, and it takes time,

502
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 3: especially where you know, I didn't really know that many

503
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: people in the NFL honestly until we did this show.

504
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: And then yeah, people come out of the woodworks, and

505
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 3: I did get burned. Sometimes you get burned, though, and

506
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 3: it's people just like you said, they're fishing for information themselves,

507
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 3: but at the time they're giving you good information and

508
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 3: a minute later that's going to change for them. I

509
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 3: am number one hundred other people do you need to

510
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 3: reach out to now?

511
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: And tell?

512
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: The informations change and sometimes I don't get reached out to.

513
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 3: So it's time's going to a long and say I

514
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 3: became friends with scouts or different people within agents on

515
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 3: different teams as they move up. That's the best part

516
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: to me. You can start trimming the fat. You don't

517
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 3: need to talk to so many different people. If you

518
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 3: get the guy who's three out from the GM on

519
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 3: a certain team, I no longer need to talk to

520
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: anyone else from that team. I have that guy now,

521
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 3: I don't need three four people to message constantly. And

522
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: they're using me because I might save them five phone calls.

523
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: Right If they can get information for me on different

524
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: teams and hearing what I'm hearing, you.

525
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 2: Know, that helps a lot.

526
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: But it's also, like we said, it's a game like

527
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: this whole thing with Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, it's

528
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: really fun for me because I knew this was coming

529
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 3: and as soon as I gave him a second round grade,

530
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: the second round graded quarterback now is a early first

531
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: round pick. Like that's just the way the NFL has moved.

532
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 3: Like Jale on Hurd is going to the second round.

533
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 3: If he came out now, he probably would go the

534
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 3: end of the first. Like, that's just how it is.

535
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 3: These quarterbacks have just been bumped down. So to me,

536
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 3: he's got this frail build. He's one hit away from

537
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 3: being out. And that's why it's like a guy like Purdy.

538
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: We all really like that was a knock on Purdy

539
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 3: coming out, right, He's got a small build. Perty's body

540
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: is not really held up. He's been banged up a

541
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: lot since he's come to the league. That's the same

542
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 3: fear with this kid, right, Like he's got a ton

543
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 3: of tools. But then you have someone like Dani or Alaska.

544
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 3: They makes a ridiculous statement that no one that's really

545
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 3: breaking down anything I agrees with. That's why people freaked

546
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: out on him because it's like, are you doing for

547
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 3: the clicks?

548
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 2: Are you involved with the agents?

549
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 3: Someone like me, I try to always keep it one

550
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 3: hundred percent clean, where it's like I don't everyone have

551
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 3: people thinking that way with me.

552
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: It's like I don't want people think I'm biased.

553
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 3: I mean, I'll never forget the year we were killing

554
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 3: the draft of you know, how are the Jets going

555
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 3: to move up and takes Zach Wilson the number two pit,

556
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: and we were getting killed for it, and people coming

557
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 3: out of the woodwork about that, and it's like that's

558
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 3: the hardest part of this.

559
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 2: It's like, I don't want to be.

560
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 3: Killing this kid either, but me and you were on

561
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 3: the same page of like everything about this kid has

562
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 3: a bus written about him. That's the same way I

563
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 3: feel about this kid, Ti Simpson. It's like he's got

564
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 3: a ton of upside chat and I'll talk to some

565
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 3: gms that are like, dude, I don't even have this

566
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: kid on my board, Like that kid's body that ain't

567
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 3: making it to week ten, let alone holding up for

568
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 3: ten years NFL. So there's some gms that just don't

569
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: even have that kit on their board. There's other gms that, yeah,

570
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 3: like Dan Orlobski, they might have him as a first

571
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 3: round pick. I have not heard from a single person,

572
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 3: a single person in the league chat that has him

573
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: above Mendoza.

574
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 2: So that's why it's like, yeah, I like see I.

575
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 3: See Derek check to It's I feel like everyone in

576
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: the know is just like, what a stupid statement. That's

577
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: why you know he's getting killed in the media. Because

578
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 3: I think me and Derek a the same lockstep. It's like,

579
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 3: this kid is not better than Mendoza.

580
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: I dare before you get into that, because there were

581
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 1: two answers there, and the question was about how are

582
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: you sort of deciphering the signals from the noise when

583
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: you're talking to a lot of people around the league

584
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: and trying to use that information thoughtfully. Answer that second question.

585
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: Answer that question. Second, give me your ty Simpson take,

586
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: since that is the conversation that everyone is starting to

587
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 1: have right now.

588
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 4: Well, Ty Sumpson is not a first round quarterback, has

589
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: never been a first round quarterback for me. He's not

590
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 4: even my Q two with his class. There's a litany

591
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 4: of other guys that we could talk about that I

592
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 4: have ranked over ty Simpson.

593
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: I think you could point to a lot.

594
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 4: I think the thing that's helping him is that he

595
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 4: comes from an SEC school. Some of this is helmet scouting,

596
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 4: so it's literally it's the newer, different version of Kenny

597
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 4: Pickett or Trubisky or whoever you want to talk about

598
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 4: of previous years where small starting experience. He goes to

599
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 4: a big program. If ty Simpson was coming out of

600
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: say Georgia, tech or IOWA or what have you. He

601
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 4: wouldn't be getting all this buzz, so I think it's

602
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 4: a big mess. And to the point, it's like I

603
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: saw that stuff hit the news lines and I was like, okay,

604
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 4: you can throw that out there. So it's noteworthy enough

605
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 4: because he's basically everybody's consensus QB two. So you don't

606
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 4: sound totally like you're talking out your butt. But then

607
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 4: the way that you're saying it with your chest, you

608
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 4: can grab all the clicks and the clips and what

609
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 4: have you, so you know, we can have a long

610
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 4: conversation about all the CAA stuff and if that's real

611
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 4: or not, probably some substance. And to the second point, it's.

612
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: Kind of a do I trust you?

613
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 4: And how far does that trust go if we don't

614
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 4: have a previous relationship over years and years of good

615
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 4: intel and things that I can actually put.

616
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 2: My finger on. And so some of this is I

617
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 2: take it.

618
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 4: With a grain of salt, and if I'm able to,

619
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 4: I cross check it against other people that I know

620
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 4: around the league and try to, you know, do the

621
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 4: tin can approach like have you heard this too?

622
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: Okay?

623
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 4: So it's not just okay, cool cool, So It's a

624
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 4: lot of like casting a ye net. If you're getting

625
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 4: a lot of different sources that I trust to corroborate

626
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 4: a lot of the same things, then I'll trust it

627
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 4: versus am I going out on a limb for somebody

628
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 4: that reaches out to me, or I have a conversation

629
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 4: and something comes up. There's definitely a trust factor, and

630
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 4: a lot of that trust is over proof is on

631
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 4: the pudding. So I trust things more from depending on

632
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: the sources that I get it from, and if I

633
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 4: can cross check at times.

634
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting about this, there's two things. Number One,

635
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: this is how guys end up going higher. I remember

636
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 1: this from when I used to cover the Combine and

637
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: you'd start talking to agents or coaches and they're walking

638
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: on the lobby or you're seeing them at Saint Elmo's

639
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: or having a drink or whatever, and everyone's sort of

640
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: having the same Whisper campaign. You know, it's like Whisper

641
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: Wednesday at the Kentucky Derby, where everyone starts talking about

642
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: the same horse that warmed up well. It's the same

643
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: athlete that performed well, and everyone is getting excited about it,

644
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: and that rumor spins into fact. Number one go ahead.

645
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: Well, let's say the key to all of it too.

646
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 3: What you're saying is all it takes is one team, right, Yeah,

647
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: But that's the horse part where like story Sanders I got,

648
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 3: I did get fed bad info last year on him

649
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 3: where I had heard there was a team that really

650
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 3: was like liked and liked him, was gonna take them

651
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 3: the first round. It was all purely leverage for them

652
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: to try to get some of the trade up for

653
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 3: their pick. And you know, that's the hardt part of this,

654
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: where it's like I invested in that info, which was

655
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 3: sound info, but it was like, oh, they were just

656
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 3: playing another game on top of that game.

657
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: So that's the scary part. Chat.

658
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: Well, that's why the second part of this is if

659
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: you are if you are not someone who has connections

660
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: to the NFL and the ability to speak to people

661
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: on a regular basis and maybe suss out fact from fiction,

662
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: and you're just a regular Joe betting this, you're at

663
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: such a severe disadvantage because anything you're getting is so

664
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: thirdhand and you're pulling it from the sky and there's

665
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: no way to know if it's real or not. Where

666
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: As it goes back to what Derek was talking about

667
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: earlier looking at the past history and trying to forecast, all, right,

668
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: what positions are going to be the most valuable. How

669
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: can someone leverage that future state now by drafting someone

670
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: really well and not have to pay them for five years.

671
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: That to me ends up being a much better way

672
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: to try to make decisions about betting on the draft

673
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: than Derek leaning into anything you might get from you know,

674
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: quote unquote sources in the NFL.

675
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: But Derek, Derek giving him props.

676
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 3: He's kind of telling you the secret sauce, right, is

677
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: if you can see where the is going.

678
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, follow that, like he gave us the answer, Yeah, exactly.

679
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 3: And it's like, if you think the league is going

680
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 3: to keep drafting more running backs and this is a

681
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: good running back class, you bet the over one and

682
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: a half running backs in the first round. I think

683
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 3: we talked about last year that went from minus one

684
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: twenty to minus four hundred by draft night.

685
00:32:58,400 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm talking about.

686
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 3: These lines will swing super quick because it's just not

687
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 3: just me and Derek have this info. Now, everybody that

688
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 3: listens to our shows now have it and they've all

689
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 3: bet it. And though those lines are racing, So that's

690
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 3: the coolest part too, is you see instant movement of

691
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 3: this show. Like I remember we used to have Sean

692
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: on Currner. He'd give out his props and I would

693
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 3: watch in live time on my screen all the different

694
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 3: websites moving their props with his bet and it's like,

695
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: that's the same thing happens in this draft. If he

696
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: came on here, Derek right now and said something crazy

697
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 3: outlandish like I don't know, just something insane that he's like, Okay,

698
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 3: this third quarterback, I just got word. This guy's gonna

699
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 3: be a third round pick. Now, you would see the

700
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: over two and a half quarterbacks before midnight to night

701
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 3: chat move huge, even if it's just fifty people from

702
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 3: our show betting it. That's how sensitive the books are.

703
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 3: They just move off air. So that's what I keep

704
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 3: telling people to be careful of. Do not chase the steam.

705
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 3: You got to be ahead of it, and if you

706
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 3: miss the wave, don't chase it later because you're gonna

707
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 3: get burned that way, and that's how you lose big

708
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,239
Speaker 3: on these type of units. So that would definitely be

709
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 3: my biggest advice. Don't don't just chase the steam. You

710
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 3: if you're not ahead of it, you missed it, honestly,

711
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 3: don't don't don't waste it.

712
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 2: There's so many different ways that bet the draft.

713
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 1: Derek gave us the best piece of advice that we've

714
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 1: had about the draft since the mac Jones hey day.

715
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 4: I wanted to go back to one, I think various

716
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 4: sage point that you made, Chad, the intel cycle for

717
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 4: all of this, it starts at the freaking combine.

718
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: Man. Some of the best stuff that I've gotten.

719
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 4: Over the years has been from the rumblings and talking

720
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 4: to people at the NFL combine, where it's like, this

721
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: guy is a workout, concerns is there, this, is there?

722
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: This, and all the rumors.

723
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 4: So if you're able to Simon's point, to get into

724
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 4: markets early with some of this intel and from sources

725
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 4: that you trust, the information cycle starts. Then it's not

726
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: the week or two before the draft or trying to

727
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 4: follow guys in their mock drafts and who have you

728
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 4: like of the NFL Consortium and.

729
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 2: It's like, oh, well, that guy's at the end of

730
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:58,439
Speaker 2: the first round.

731
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 4: He must be going for round one, and you don't

732
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 4: know if the agents or what have you were like, hey,

733
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 4: can you put this guy in the back end of

734
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 4: your first round. I mean, it makes a lot of sense.

735
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 4: You're not going to get blasted for it, I swear

736
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 4: you know so. I think the information cycle starts even

737
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 4: at that point of the combine where we're trying to

738
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: put all the puzzle pieces together, even that early.

739
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 1: Derek, I have this vision of you as a crazy,

740
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: big football fan in Baton Rouge, on an overnight shift

741
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: at Saint Jude's and in between taking care of precious

742
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 1: young human beings, your knee deep in three ring binders

743
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: that you created yourself about football. Like, just paint a

744
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: picture for me of what that was like. How you

745
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 1: managed being a caregiver and a human saint with being

746
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: a you know, crazy football fan.

747
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 4: I can definitely tell you there were a lot of

748
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 4: bets made from very infrequent bathroom break. Was a nurse

749
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 4: and number two, I did work a lot of night shifts.

750
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 4: I worked night shifts for about six years, and there

751
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 4: were a lot of bets made during my lunch break

752
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 4: as short as that was, so you had to be

753
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 4: very efficient. You had to get all of everything down,

754
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: whether it was betting and DFS and all that kind

755
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: of stuff. I'm at two am. And I'll even harken

756
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 4: this back to COVID times, I'm not ashamed to say.

757
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 4: And I feel like this is a safe space. Boys,

758
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 4: it is many many different times betting on Korean baseball

759
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:38,760
Speaker 4: at two and three am.

760
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 2: I have done it.

761
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 4: I know we're not talking about Korean baseball leagues, but

762
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 4: that has been a focus of mine very much, early

763
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 4: in the morning or late at night, however you want

764
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 4: to approach it.

765
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 1: I just love this, someone who genuinely went into a

766
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: field that is so selfless, was still working on his

767
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 1: bets in a downtime.

768
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 2: Gonta grind that ev, man? You got you.

769
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 1: Got to grind that ev.

770
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: All right?

771
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: Speaking of Ev, pretty slim pickings. Right now, we've talked

772
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: about how they've changed NFL draft betting, and books don't

773
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 1: lean into it as much because they start to get

774
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: burned a little bit of what you're seeing out there

775
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: right now? You've mentioned a couple of things, Derek, what

776
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: else are you seeing? And for both of you, when

777
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 1: do you expect the markets to open up a little

778
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: bit more?

779
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: Do you want to kick this off side of you

780
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 2: and me? Take this? Yeah? Far away? All right? For me?

781
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 4: I mean there's I'm being very calculated kind of like

782
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 4: you talked about the early lines that we're getting. I

783
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,479
Speaker 4: think one of the most interesting markets out there right now.

784
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: And I usually don't go too heavy about these in

785
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 4: the sense of certain players to go to certain picks

786
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 4: in the draft, because again, the volatility and.

787
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 2: Things can go sideways very quickly.

788
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 4: And really, if I'm making some of these like selections

789
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 4: at certain pick numbers, it has to make a lot

790
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 4: of sense, whether that's based off of information or again

791
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 4: we're seeing trends. I'm not making these bets that like,

792
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 4: especially like guys that are like minus one ten even

793
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 4: plus one hundred plus two hundred, because if again with

794
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 4: the volatility, we want to lean into the leverage points

795
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 4: and if the NFL does things that maybe because this

796
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 4: happens every single year, one of the best spots right

797
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 4: now is pick number two. I mean on some books

798
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 4: you're getting plus one thousand plus fourteen hundred on ruben Bain. Yeah,

799
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 4: I'm whitting my whistle on some of that because you

800
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 4: look at Okay, everybody is mocking an edge to the

801
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 4: Jets at two. It's Rville Reese. It's Rville Reese. He's

802
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 4: the steamed up player. Look back to yesterday year and

803
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 4: people talk about the arm length of Ruben Bain, and

804
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 4: we can have a very long conversation about what's real

805
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 4: and what's fiction. Considering over the last two years, the

806
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 4: NFL has changed how they measure arms, and the Pro

807
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,240
Speaker 4: Days and the Senior Bowl, and all the arm length

808
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 4: stuff is lining up from like all these different sources,

809
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 4: So that doesn't matter to me. Like when we go

810
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 4: back to the Jets, Aaron Glenn was part of the

811
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 4: Detroit Lions when they selected another highly touted edge rusher

812
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 4: from a big program with seven percentile arms in Aiden Hutchinson.

813
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 4: And if you want to talk about just stacking up production,

814
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 4: if I'm gonna get plus one thousand plus fourteen hundred

815
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 4: in some spots on Reuben Bain to go second overall, yes,

816
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 4: please considering the top three defenders above him, I mean

817
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 4: two or three guys are like at plus two hundred

818
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:37,280
Speaker 4: plus one hundred. RVL Reese is at minus two thirty

819
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 4: in some spots. I'm not no, And you can team

820
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 4: that if you wanted to again, go with two sides

821
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,479
Speaker 4: of this coin, RVL Reese over two and a half.

822
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,479
Speaker 4: So basically the books are saying he's going at two.

823
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 4: You can get that at plus money at some spots.

824
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 4: And not to just spray the board here, but total

825
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 4: quarterbacks under one and a half, and you can get

826
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 4: that at plus two hundred a little bit higher at

827
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 4: some spots. And I'll go back to my the two

828
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 4: previous bets I shouted out here wide receivers over five

829
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,479
Speaker 4: and a half and offensive linemen what was the line

830
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 4: over seven and a half.

831
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 2: You can get pretty much even money in a lot

832
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 2: of spots.

833
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,280
Speaker 4: So really, if I'm getting early bets out there before

834
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 4: hopefully we get expansion of markets, and I wouldn't even

835
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 4: go down the whole prediction market type of thing, but

836
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 4: that's another place you can lay some money and maybe

837
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 4: you're not getting limited because again Simonett made a very

838
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 4: immaculate point at the beginning of this is it's hard

839
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 4: these streets, man, Like you're not paying off your mortgage and.

840
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 5: Doing all these kind of things making a ton of

841
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 5: money when books are like you go to log in

842
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 5: and make an NFL draft it and they're like, oh, great,

843
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 5: ten dollars, Okay, well that's that's lovely.

844
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 4: So you know, looking at the board, that's that's kind

845
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 4: of where I'm going at this moment about you.

846
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the boring time, right take either take

847
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 3: the long shots or take the.

848
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: Really juice up lines like over one and a half quarterbacks.

849
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 3: I thin it's a minus two to fifty minus two

850
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 3: to twenty five and most looks.

851
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 2: It feels like the dramas.

852
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 3: Gonna keep kicking up and one of these guys is

853
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: gonna leak into the end of that first round. So

854
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 3: even if you don't trust the Alabama quarterback Tys Simpson,

855
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 3: he still might be able to make his back end

856
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 3: work because his agents. He's doing God's work right now

857
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 3: in dani Orlawski. So like there's two out there in

858
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 3: this guy's game. That's how it works, Like you, just

859
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 3: one guy needs to fall in love with it. One

860
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 3: team needs to be even the Rams, you know the Rams.

861
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 3: Everyone's saying, well, Rams most likely going to take a

862
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 3: wide receiver who knows McVeigh might love this kid, trade

863
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 3: back in their first round.

864
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 2: Take this kid them in the first round, So you know,

865
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 2: that's a fun bet.

866
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 3: In a week running back class, you know, love is

867
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 3: the guaranteed probably most likely a top ten pick as

868
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 3: a running back it's plus five hundred and fifty right

869
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 3: now over one and a half running backs in the

870
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: first round, So I really think that's gonna happen. Probably not,

871
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 3: Like it's a really weird like class for price. Another

872
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 3: running back from Notre Dame probably is the second best

873
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 3: running back. Could he leak into the end of the

874
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 3: first round. The league has shifted now, they really are

875
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 3: only these running backs now. So that's another play where

876
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, it's probably not gonna happen, but if

877
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: five to one, why not throw a tenor on that?

878
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 2: Right?

879
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: If you can get fifty back, and even better, if

880
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 3: the odds move the plus two hundred by draft night,

881
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 3: you're ahead of the game. Brother, you already got the

882
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 3: best odds, unlike everyone else who's now betting do not

883
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 3: as a good aligned. So those are always the type

884
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 3: of things I'm looking for, And I'm in total agreeance

885
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 3: about the wide receiver bet. That's when I jumped out

886
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 3: to me right away. It did open at five four

887
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 3: and a half. Immediately bet up to five and a half. Now,

888
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 3: that's why it is plus one eighty five plus one

889
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 3: eighty we will see, right who's gonna be that six guy?

890
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 3: There's two or three guys fighting right now for that

891
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 3: back end position. It's all about the end of the draft,

892
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 3: right Seattle, they don't need a receiver, they do need

893
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 3: draft capital. They've lost a lot of guys after winning

894
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. Them trading out there makes sense. New

895
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 3: England we've already talked about. They're in the wide receiver business,

896
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 3: so that plays into this, right. So those are where

897
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 3: you're trying to you're trying to paint your storyline. You're

898
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 3: making these bets as well, and that I love the

899
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 3: dere gad that went out, Like that's a fun bet

900
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 3: at a plus number now a couple weeks ahead, right,

901
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 3: So you're not gonna burn yourself betting on minus one

902
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 3: twenty one minus two. I feel like I just gave

903
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 3: up for the over the quarterbacks. You can take these

904
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 3: plus number bets you have and if you just hit

905
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: one at of three, one out of four and it's

906
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 3: had a crazy good number, you're up on the draft.

907
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 3: And that's the end of the day. That's the goal.

908
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: Like we're watching that have fun. We all want to

909
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 3: make a profit here. So that's that's the key is

910
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: I'm not going to force any bets here, if I'm

911
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 3: gonna get to use something out, it's something I'm truly

912
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 3: betting that I think is good at.

913
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 2: Especially at a plus number to.

914
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 4: Your point two, you can hedge that and just take

915
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 4: both sides of it. You're getting like minus one ten

916
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 4: at the under, you can. If you're getting plus two hundred,

917
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 4: like I've seen a plus two hundred plus two fifty

918
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 4: for the for the under one and a half quarterbacks,

919
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 4: you're probably making money either way too, So I mean

920
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 4: you can really hedge your bets that way.

921
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 2: And to your point about the running.

922
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 4: Backs, there are so many teams the end of the

923
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 4: first round that I think are trade back candidates to

924
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 4: where if you want to see a team if it's

925
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 4: not Ja Darien Price. The other thing that we know

926
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 4: that the NFL overvalue not over values, but they double

927
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 4: count is speed. So like Washington going out there and

928
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 4: running a freaking four to three. I'm not telling you

929
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 4: he's been a first round pick, but if if a

930
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 4: team where to double count speed.

931
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,320
Speaker 2: It wouldn't be the first time. We don't need Al.

932
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 4: Davis still live and kicking to sit here and for

933
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 4: a team to double count speed, so it could.

934
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 1: Happen listen to bring it full circle. I'd just gotten

935
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: an alert from ESPN that Mike vrabel is talking about

936
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 1: the AJ Brown rumors at the owners meeting Derek Brown.

937
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 1: What a freaking gift you are. That is just outstanding.

938
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on the show man. That was great

939
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Football podcast talking to NFL Draft. It's a

940
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: great show. It's a huge shows. It's a it's a

941
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: brotherhood show in the Volume podcast network. This has been

942
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or

943
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe

944
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: to the channel. Downloads with Spotify, Apple Pods we ever

945
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars, say

946
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time,

947
00:44:56,280 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: Love you.

948
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: The New York Jets select tight End from Penn State

949
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 4: Kyle Rady. It's obvious to me right now that the

950
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 4: Jets just don't understand what the dress all about.