WEBVTT - Using OnChain Data To Predict Bitcoin Pricing With Philip Swift 0:00:04.600 --> 0:00:07.680 So the big question is this, how do investors like 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:11.800 us get access to the ideas, information, and most importantly, 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.880 the right people that give us the tools and information 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:19.000 we need to make conformed and educated decisions to have success. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.319 That is the question, and this podcast will give us 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:25.520 the answers. This is Mark Moss, your host. Let's get 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.400 this started. Everyone, Welcome to another episode of the Market 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:32.599 Disruptors podcast. Today I am joined by Philip Swift and 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.560 we are going to be talking about bitcoin on chain analytics, 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:38.720 what they're looking like, how we can look at them, 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:42.320 and what they tell us. Uh, super super interesting conversations 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:43.879 that I've already had. I can't wait to jump in. 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:48.599 So Philip, welcome to the show. Hey man, thanks very 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:49.960 much for having me on the show. It's great to 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.600 be here. And yeah, things are looking good at the 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.920 market right now and it's great chatsy great right. So, 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:57.760 you know, I know we've had some conversations. I've been 0:00:57.760 --> 0:00:59.840 watching some of the work that you've been doing UM 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.400 online and on your website. But for those that don't know, 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:03.880 why don't you just kind of fill us in on 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.800 UM you know who, what you've been doing, how you 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.240 got here, and what you're doing right now. Cool, thank you. 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:14.560 So I am a full time bitcoin trader and investor. 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:16.640 I have been for about two and a half years now, 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.560 very passionate about bitcoin for a number of reasons, so 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:26.080 not only from an investment opportunity, but also I believe 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.400 it's probably one of the most important tools for human 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.360 rights in the world right now in the coming years, 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:33.120 as we see governments have more and more issues with 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.880 their monetary and physical policies. Um. So yeah, full time trader, investor. 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:42.200 But in addition to that, I also build valuation models 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:47.400 for bitcoin, so indicators and tools that helped to identify 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:52.320 when bitcoin is under or values. That's a pretty new 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:57.840 and emerging space within bitcoin. It's probably been in existence 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:00.400 for a couple of years now because obviously bitcoin itself 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.840 is only ten coming up to eleven years old, so 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:07.520 we haven't really had enough data until recently to be 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:12.160 able to start to build valuation models for bitcoin. And 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.320 because it's a unique asset class, so it has characteristics 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:21.680 that are quite different to traditional finance instruments. Um, you 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:26.480 can't use tools from the transitional finance world and just 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.160 try and directly apply them to bitcoins, try and value 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:32.000 it so you can't. So in traditional finance, for stocks 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:35.600 and shares, you have things like price to earnings ratios 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.600 and discarded cash flows. You can't really apply those to bitcoin. 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:41.840 But what we can do is try and come up 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.639 with some new tools and metrics to understand when bitcoin 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:49.120 is under or overvalued. And that's what I do, and 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:53.600 I launched, as you mentioned, a website last month called 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:56.440 looking too bitcoin dot com and that has a hard 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.600 bunch of these different valuation models and tools all for 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:03.760 for uh choy to make them as user friendly and 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:06.040 nice to look at as possible and kind of live 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.120 chart data form. And yeah, it's all free and one 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.320 can go and check them out. Yeah. Now, as you said, right, 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.000 like typically when we're looking at trying to value financial 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.600 stocks and we look at fundamentals, and the fundamentals are 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:21.880 kind of like what you said, right, which are earnings 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:25.160 ratios and things like that. Um, and a lot of 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:29.240 people have always criticized cryptocurrencies because they don't have those fundamentals. 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:33.320 You're talking about looking at different metrics that can give 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:36.920 us the fundamentals because they're different, right, I get that, 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.160 But um, that's an interesting way to look at it 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:41.320 and I'm just curious. I I kind of know, but 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:42.600 why don't you fill us in a little bit on 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.360 your background and how maybe what shaped you? How did 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:50.160 you get to the point to start looking at like this. Yes, 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:52.040 so my book is probably a little bit different to 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.600 a lot of other traders and investors in the space. 0:03:55.080 --> 0:04:01.360 Um So, I studied economics university, uh which was great 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:03.560 in terms of giving me a good grounding in terms 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:09.360 of how markets work. Um some macro principles around economics 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:13.120 and maths. But like I think many of the people 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.600 who studied economics, you kind of get to the end 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.719 of it and think, man, this is so theoretical you 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:19.720 kind of want to throw all your textbooks out of the 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:24.320 the window because it's quite hard to apply a lot 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.800 of it to the real world. So I kind of 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.640 left university feeling a little bit jaded, but I was 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:34.280 still very interested in the behavior economic side of things, 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:40.640 so understanding what makes markets work. And so I then 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:45.400 got a career actually working for major global dricks brands, 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:51.919 uh so, companies that own brands like Jack Daniels, Gray, 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:56.200 Goose Bug, Hendrix, gen Ster, Artoire. So if you like 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.520 a drink, you've probably had one of those brands, Um, 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:03.120 and I. She works in a unit within these companies 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:09.200 which was really a strategic marketing function of thoughts. And 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:12.520 unless you work for one of these big companies, you 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.880 probably don't realize that these functions even exist. It's called 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:20.200 Consumer Insight team and the role of these guys is 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:27.480 to understand the psychology of your potential consumers and your consumers, right, 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:31.720 so you're you're trying to segment them, understand their reasons 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:34.480 for choosing your brand or for not choosing your brand. 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:37.920 And that goes beyond just why they think about the sector. 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.440 It's around their hopes and dreams and their fears and 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:44.120 all that sort of stuff. So it deep goes quite 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:49.320 deep in terms of market psychology. And really that's how 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.080 these brands get so big is because they have a 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:56.520 very sophisticated understanding of market psychology. Now, if I can 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.080 just jump in at the rate there real quick. So, Um, 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:03.320 you studied market psychology working for the big brands, and 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:07.200 the economics was also um, trying to understand what markets 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:11.760 are market psychology, you said, what makes markets work? Right? Yeah, 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.680 I'm curious. Um, you said that a lot of is theoretical, 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:17.120 which I think that theoretical part probably helps you today 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.919 because trying to new ways to capture analytics, you have 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:25.159 to be theoretical. I'm curious though, Uh, you know, from 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:27.479 everyone that I've talked to, I didn't major in economics, 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.039 but I I know a lot of people who did, 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:33.960 and uh, you know they do not teach Austrian economics, 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:37.679 which everybody basically ends up at after they've been studying bitcoin. 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:41.480 It seems like yea, and sometimes the university training you 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:45.679 had can can keep you from really understanding bitcoin because 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.240 you've been trained maybe with blinders on right, And you said, 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:52.640 what makes markets work? And it seems like what whatever 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:55.760 you wanna call it, traditional or conventional economics versus like 0:06:55.760 --> 0:07:00.840 an Austrian is that traditional find economics thinks the market 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:06.200 is something too understand how it works and manage and 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:10.160 and and manipulate, versus Austroan economics understands that there is 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:11.880 no such thing as a market. All we have as 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:16.720 individuals wants, needs and desires. Yeah, what do you think 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:19.120 about that? And and how does that relate to studying 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:22.240 the market, especially for a brand? Yeah, I mean I 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.200 think I think that's a that's a fair summary, and 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:28.760 I think a lot of frustrations come from, uh, the 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:30.560 need if you if you were trying to focus in 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:34.400 on a specific area, you have to make compromises and sacrifices. 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:39.000 And often in economics the compromises and sacrifices around are 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:45.160 around uh, recognizing that or that we're not recognizing that 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:49.800 we are all emotional beasts right where you have emotions, 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:54.119 we're not rational players. And as soon as you start 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:57.000 to assume that we're rational players, then then you start 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.480 to lose understanding of how how the markets move and 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.040 how the more his work. So that's why I think 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:06.320 behavior economics is so much more relevant, particularly to the 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:11.600 world room today, and particularly to assets like bitcoin, which 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:16.080 are very retail market driven. So you have therefore, you know, 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:21.320 to your point, millions of individuals, all with their own emotions, 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:26.560 and when they are trying to determine what they should 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:30.440 do with their investments, they are often can be lit 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:34.640 by consensus. It's kind of like it's kind of like, um, 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:38.800 you say they're not rational, which I kind of agree. 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.640 Misses from Austrian school. He says that, um, it's always rational. 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.240 So I might look like I'm acting irrationally, but it's 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:51.520 rational to me because I have my own set of circumstances. 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.000 So even though bitcoin is gonna go to a million 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.440 dollars next year, I might sell it today for no 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.240 reason that looks irround national, but maybe my kid got 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:04.600 sick any of the money, right, So there's always national 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.400 to me. But you can't manage that because it's millions 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:11.680 of inputs exactly. And that's really a point around context, right, 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:15.040 which which going back to my previous employment, that that's 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.400 something we focused on a lot. You have to understand 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:20.360 people's context to really understand if you want to fully 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:24.720 understand their decision making process. But yeah, super interesting stuff. Yeah, anyway, Okay, 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:28.160 so your understanding market psychology, I think, like we said, 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:30.520 like the I think I could I could imagine that 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.640 the theory that you've learned in in economic school probably 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.880 helped you to start theorizing what kind of new metrics 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:40.400 we could look at in bitcoint. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, And 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.520 really is the combination the two, right, So you have 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:47.880 economic theory plus market psychology, and for a market like bitcoin, 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:52.280 that that is very useful because what we're seeing is 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.400 bigcoin is going through an adoption process, and on top 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.920 of that adoption process we have market cycles, and so 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:03.640 combining those two fields has been very useful um to 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:05.520 me as as a training investor in to try and 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.240 build some of these these valuation tools as well. A 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:14.840 couple of years. Yeah, so then you started trading bitcoin 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.960 on your own, and then you started realizing that we 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:21.000 don't really have any good metrics, and so you've decided 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.360 to dig in and started to try to see what 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.680 was available and what else you could come up with. Yeah, yeah, 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:30.200 that's right. So I've been trading for probably a couple 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:34.280 of years and that was all going well, but I 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:37.920 found that I wasn't really that passionate about becoming a 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:42.160 super techy technical analysis geek, and I was more drawn 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:48.320 to understanding the macro cycles of a bitcoin. And I 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:51.280 started playing around with different types of data, one of 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:54.720 which was someone chained data. So I was on, you know, 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:59.200 using sites like blockchain dot info which posts some pretty 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:03.640 basic on chain data, and probably late two thousand and seventeen, 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:07.839 I think, and I started to notice that on a 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:12.839 macro level, there was a relationship between volume running through 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:18.800 the blockchain on a daily basis and then also bitcoin price. So, uh, 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:24.080 when volume through the blockchain was hitting sufficient levels. It 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.800 was kind of a leading indicator to price moving up. 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:31.760 And um, I posted a chart on it on Twitter, 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:36.800 I think on tone vases Twitter channel, and a guy 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.360 called Willie Woo, who I imagine a lot of your 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:43.079 viewers have probably heard of. Willy Woo is like probably 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:48.079 the godfather of on chain analysis. He's pretty amazing and 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.600 I've learned a huge tone of stuff from him over 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:55.120 over the years. And he picked it up and he 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.400 was like, hey, you love this view. I hadn't seen 0:11:57.440 --> 0:11:59.240 it before. I'd like to put it on my site 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.400 and you should write a pay for about it. And 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:05.199 so I did a called it Bitcoin network Momentum, and yeah, 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.080 it kind of so I probably at the time like 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:08.960 the first and followers on Twitter or something, and then 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.720 within a week I had like two thousand followers stars like, Okay, 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:15.120 clearly there's some interest in this, you know, clearly people 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.240 are interested in this sort of analysis. And then it 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.840 really went from there, you know, because I then just 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.160 started speaking to other people who are also looking at 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.640 this sort of analysis and trying to build these types 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:29.720 of indicators, and and then yeah, and that that whole 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:34.040 space now of valuing bitcoin is really exploded. And now 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.000 it is like you know, crypto funds with teams of 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:39.320 guys doing this types of analysis. So it's just going 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:42.160 to get bigger and bigger. So let's let's talk about that. 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.600 So first of all, um, you talk about on chain 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:49.760 data and indicators to help us understand bitcoin and maybe 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.959 identify where bitcoin is going. So what are what are 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.720 the indicators? What I mean and not specifically, but what 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.000 is generally? What is an indicator? What does that mean 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.640 to the average person? So an indicator area is really 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.400 so as an investor in its most simple form, as 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.280 an investor, a long term investor. So we're not talking 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:11.120 about trade short term trading here. I want to know 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.080 when is a good time for me to buy? When 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.400 is a good time for me to sell? And these 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:21.440 indicators show you on a historical level. So looking back 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.920 in bitcoins history, um, you know when this bitcoin being 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:28.280 extremely over oversold or other board and therefore when is 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.360 it When is a good time for me to buy ourselves? 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.240 And that's pretty much it. You know, when you dig 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.200 into the side, is a bit more there, but in 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.640 its essence, that's kind of it really. So it's you're 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:43.120 looking through data and basically it gives it tells you something. 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.520 That's the indicator, and it's indicating here I should either 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.120 buy or its indicating aations maybe sell or I should 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.760 watch it. And then you also talked about using on 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.560 chain data, So what does that mean? What what what 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:58.439 is on chain data? So on chain data is essentially 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:04.319 transactions that happened on the blockchain. So if you send 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.200 me some bitcoin tomorrow, which is more than welcome to 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.800 do it, will you know, have most your public address 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:16.559 there You're right, that will be recorded on the blockchain. 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:21.920 And that has happened ever since bitcoin started, and so 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.520 there is a huge amount of data available on the 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.920 blockchain to look at in terms of size of transactions, 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.880 the time that the transaction took place, the wallets that 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.720 it moved from, and too. And so you can use 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:39.400 that data and aggregated level to look at trends over 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.240 time really and those trends can give you clues as 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.480 we alluded to, as to when bitcoin is sold or 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.720 overbought and therefore what as you should action You could 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.240 take it as an investor. Yeah, I want to jump 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.440 into some of the indicators and tools, and so we'll 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.240 talk specifically about some of the arm chained data, because 0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:59.000 I know there's a ton of n chained data. And 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:03.240 it's curious though, um you mentioned, um look at macro 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.960 cycles and and and having them be like leading indicators. 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.560 And I know one that has been used for for 0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:13.360 many years was Google search data, and that's not on 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.880 chaine data. I understand what people would look at like 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.680 Google search and you could see how the volume of 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:26.280 bitcoin being searched on Google correlated with the price of bitcoin. Yeah, 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.240 and you know a lot of people think that's a 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.520 leading indicator. I've often thought it was a lagging indicator. 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:37.040 So leading means that, um, it tells us before the 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.400 move happens, and lagging tells us it happens after. And 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.440 it's kind of like a chicken or the egg argument 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:46.480 where um, because the bitcoin price went from seven thousand 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:48.440 to twenty thousand, everybody's searching it to figure out what 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.760 the heck it is that that would be after or 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.680 are they searching it and then they buy, which then 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:59.160 is a leading What do you think? Uh? So, I 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.280 have some friends You've done a fair beatter than analysis 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.120 on that, and the conclusion is that it's a pretty 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:07.920 lagging indicator. Actually, So I wouldn't. I wouldn't put too 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.440 much weight on it. Um. But you know, as with 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.960 there any of these things, right, it's just one tool, 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:14.920 and and it's something I talk about a lot, is 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.440 how even all the charts I'm looking to bitcoin. I mean, 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.440 the purpose of the site is really to help regular people, 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:25.080 not just large institutions, invest better in bitcoin. And it 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:28.640 does despite providing a range of tools, because I believe 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.160 that you shouldn't just try and hang your hat on 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.520 one metric. You've got to use a range of tools, 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:36.880 whether it's these sorts of indicators, whether it's technical analysis, 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:39.560 Google search trends to kind of join the dots and 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.400 build up your thesis. So definitely, So yeah, I think 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.440 it is a bit of a lugging an indicator. But yeah, sure, 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.760 all this stuff confused, so you think you think there's 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.000 other on chain data that is more of a leading indicator. 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.480 So you think there is some good stuff without getting 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.360 to the specifics of the actual specific indicators you have. 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:57.720 I mean, there are a couple of metrics that you 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:02.360 think could be good as leading. Yes, so I think 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:06.560 you can look at well, well we'll come on to 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.840 talk about them. But yeah, so on chained data specifically 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:14.280 like Bitcoin days destroyed. Uh that that is very useful 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.639 in terms of looking at um all guys who have 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:19.760 helped the kind of a long amount of time, like 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.400 are they are they moving funds from there? While it's 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.679 that can give you clues, essentially, you're constantly looking for 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:29.280 clues and hints as to what may be coming in 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.720 the market and so on. Chained data can do that, 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:36.359 but so can actually UM like price analysis analysis. So 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.840 you know, half the charts on the site are looking 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:43.479 at price data using moving averages to show you the 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:47.000 broad trend of the market where and whether we get 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.600 to points where the market might get ourtherheated or whereveryone 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:53.960 might actually be very fearful, you know, because a large 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:58.080 part about understanding the bitcoin market from an investment point 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:02.040 of view is about understanding it's market cycles. So it's 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:06.879 about understanding when is the general consensus of market participants, 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:10.359 When are they broadly over optimistic and that might be 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:12.159 a good time to take some profit of the table, 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.080 and when are they overly pessimistic? You know, when is 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.480 everyone really fearful? I think what is it? Warren Buffett, 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:20.240 he said, you know, be greedy when everyone else is fearful. Right, 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.359 If you fundamentally believe in the long term prospects of 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:26.840 big point, then I'm being able to identify those periods 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.040 can be very valuable to use an investor intend to 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:35.919 know when to invest. Yeah, and so um, somehow the 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:38.560 data can tell us when it's overpriced or when the 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:42.600 market psychology, the market as a whole is greedy or 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.480 is is that now? Uh? In investing, we've always said 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:51.400 that past performance is no guarantee of future. So I'm 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.800 guessing you have to take that into account. How do 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:59.280 you look at that? I agree with that one, you know, 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:03.639 And what would say is that, you know, history doesn't 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.040 always repeat, but it does influence the future. And we've 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:10.440 got like tend nearly eleven years worth of data now 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.720 and bitcoin, and so it does allow us to forecast 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:17.240 what may play out in the coming months or years. 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.919 But yeah, I mean, all of these tools, you know, 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.080 they none of them may work going forwards. But I 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.000 think there's such an array of different types of tools 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:30.199 that people are using now that again going back to 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:32.280 my point before, if you if you use a cross 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.639 section of them, all from different sources and kind of 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.080 join the dots and they can help you forecast what 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.640 may play out going forwards. Um. You know, which which 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:43.719 a lot of funds are doing now as well as 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:47.280 individuals with it with pretty high degree of success. So 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.120 I think there's a lot in it. But yeah, absolutely, 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.520 you know none of this is investment advice. And also 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:56.960 you know all of these tools are literally just educational 0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.600 tools to try and help you out. So let's talk 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:01.400 about a couple of them. I know on your website, 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:06.160 I think you have ten or twelve different indicators. And 0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:08.800 again I want to just impress on everybody that, uh, 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:12.760 one indicator by itself doesn't mean anything. Um. You want 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:14.320 to look at all of them, like like a good 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.280 example in the traditional markets might be everyone thought, oh, 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.840 when the yield curve inverts, when the bond yield curve inverts, 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.080 then the market's going to crash. Well that's one indicator, 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:25.920 all right, But when you look at all the other 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.159 indicators of the market, to me, it was telling me 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:30.320 that the market wasn't gonna crash. And I've been pretty 0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:33.040 up now we're starting to geet rallied um. And so 0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:36.360 you can't just look at one indicator like that, um. 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.160 And so that's kind of what we're talking about. And 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:39.920 and there's ten or twelve here, but there's other things, 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:42.600 right that you want to look at. I look at also, 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:46.320 like external things not on chain, like, um, what are 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.400 companies doing? Like, Uh, we've just seen in the last 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:53.040 couple of weeks, uh, close to a billion dollars get 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.800 raised for bitcoin mining. That's a serious investment for long 0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.159 term and that tells me something. We saw, you know, 0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:01.840 most of the the big elite in Wall Street jump 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:04.480 into bitcoin just in the last month or two, um, 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:07.560 you know, from fidality and back finally launched. And so 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:10.800 that's fundamental. I just want to impress on everybody you 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:12.600 want to look at all these things and what are 0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:15.200 they telling you? But um, if we can, let's talk 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.320 about maybe just a couple of the indicators that you 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.480 have that we can explain without the need of charts 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:23.280 and whatnot, And and tell me what do you think 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.080 are maybe like your most powerful or most easy to 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:30.919 use ones. Yeah, sure, let's start with We'll, like you say, 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.280 given the we're not in front of the you know, 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:35.639 the website it self right now, let's start with one 0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:38.880 of the simpler charts on the site. Uh. And in fact, 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:41.639 I kind of designed it to be as simple as 0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:44.600 possible because I wanted this side to be useful for anyone, 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.920 whether they are you know, Omega on chain analytics geek. 0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:50.320 There's some stuff on there for like people like that, 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:54.000 like charts I reserve risk. Uh, there's plumb stuff to 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:56.240 flow model, which I'm sure most people have probably heard 0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.600 of now, and then mind your mind through some more 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:01.200 simple stuff. So let's start with arguably one of the 0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:04.359 more simple ones. It's just called the Bitcoin Investor Tool, 0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:09.080 and it uses a two year moving average line of 0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:12.760 bitcoins price. So on the chart, you've got the price 0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:15.359 a bitcoin, so you can see the price line, and 0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:18.640 then you also have a two year moving average line 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:21.760 of bitcoins price. So for anyone who doesn't know what 0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:25.280 I'm moving average line is, it's simply taking an average 0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.560 of the daily closed prices over any given period of time. 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:32.320 So you could have a ten day moving average line, 0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:35.840 which shows average price of the past ten days. You 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:38.400 could have a two day moving average line, which shows 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:42.160 average price over the past two in days. The result 0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:45.840 is a smooth line versus the more erratic daily price 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:49.760 line because you're taking an average price over a number 0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:53.880