Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You,
Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits each day
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
Speaker 1: the trading floor, find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well, global trade and global finance
Speaker 1: continue to be in the headlines and continue to impact
Speaker 1: financial markets. To get the latest on some of the
Speaker 1: key global issues, we turn once again to Bill Rhodes.
Speaker 1: Bill as President CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors.
Speaker 1: He's also author of the book Banker to the World,
Speaker 1: Leadership Lessons from the front Lines of Global Global Finance.
Speaker 1: Bill joins us live here in the Bloomberg and Ractor
Speaker 1: Broker Studio. So Bill, let's turn our attention to Latin America.
Speaker 1: Argentina in the news. This you know, kind of blew
Speaker 1: up yesterday with yields on government bonds rising to the
Speaker 1: highest level since the country was last in the fall
Speaker 1: stocks and the pay so we're in free fall. What's
Speaker 1: the latest from Argentina? Length. The problem in in Argentina,
Speaker 1: as we were discussing in the break, is that when
Speaker 1: Macari came in, everyone had great expectations. I actually did
Speaker 1: a piece for Bloomberg the first week he was in office.
Speaker 1: What happened, though, is he fritted away his time. So
Speaker 1: instead of implementing tough economic reforms up front, like Fernando
Speaker 1: and Rick Carloso did with the Real Plan and Uh,
Speaker 1: Belsarovitch did UH with Poland when Poland broke away from
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union. He fritted it away and he called
Speaker 1: it gradualismo, the Spanish term for do it gradually. UH.
Speaker 1: And the reason he did that was because he thought
Speaker 1: it would help him politically. But if you don't take
Speaker 1: the tough measures up front, it blows up in your face. UH.
Speaker 1: And last year when I was there, they had just
Speaker 1: they were just firing ahead of the Central Bank, blaming
Speaker 1: him for it. Uh. They put in the Minister of
Speaker 1: Finance UH, and he lasted two or three months Caputo,
Speaker 1: and then he resigned or was fired because they did
Speaker 1: not want to take the tough steps. Now the I
Speaker 1: m F has got their next out there, just like
Speaker 1: they did on Greece, because they've given him the largest
Speaker 1: program efforts over fifty billion dollars, and they can't be
Speaker 1: very happy now because inflation is over fifty the country's
Speaker 1: deep into recession. Elections are in October and all of
Speaker 1: the polls show believe it or not. Uh. Christina Kirshner,
Speaker 1: who people thought would be in jail by now, says
Speaker 1: she's gonna run, and she's running ahead of Macari. And
Speaker 1: and now he slapped on price controls and having restarted
Speaker 1: that country more than anybody else in history five times.
Speaker 1: Every time they get into price controls, it doesn't work. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you remember you had a bad ending of Alfonsin,
Speaker 1: you had a bad ending of day lar Ua. The
Speaker 1: press in Argentina is full of that. I hope it
Speaker 1: doesn't happen because I think Macari has the right intentions,
Speaker 1: but uh, time may have run out, and so he's
Speaker 1: got to use the rest of his time to implement
Speaker 1: these reforms, and maybe too late. So I remember all
Speaker 1: the way back, maybe two years ago, when Argentina was
Speaker 1: selling hundred year bonds and investors were piling in and
Speaker 1: the biggest institutions were saying Argentina is a recovery story.
Speaker 1: Never mind the fact that it's defaulted five some odd
Speaker 1: times in the past hundred years. Here we are the
Speaker 1: chances of potential to faull to being priced into the
Speaker 1: market of Argentinian debt over six currently up from a
Speaker 1: year ago. In your perspective, what are the chances that
Speaker 1: we see yet another Argentinian default? Well, I certainly hope
Speaker 1: we will not, but there's still time to take some
Speaker 1: of these tough measures. But it's not like putting on
Speaker 1: price controls. And the economic team down there was very
Speaker 1: slow to recognize the problems, and those who did recognize it,
Speaker 1: unfortunately Mauricio got rid of UH. And so it's like
Speaker 1: my father taught me when I was a young man, said, Bill,
Speaker 1: the road to Hell is paved with good intentions, and
Speaker 1: Macary has all the good intentions, but if you don't
Speaker 1: take the proper steps, you could have more problems. And
Speaker 1: so the markets are now fixated on Argentina. How people
Speaker 1: people would have bought a hundred year bonds? And when
Speaker 1: you asked me that earlier, UH in the break, I said,
Speaker 1: because there's too much liquidity. UH still slashing around with
Speaker 1: with all UH, the emphasis on central banks providing liquidity,
Speaker 1: the reach ree yield and people are desperate for that,
Speaker 1: so they went into all sorts of things, including those bonds. Uh.
Speaker 1: But you know it's not just Argentina. Let's take a
Speaker 1: look at what's going on in Turkey. Look at the
Speaker 1: inflation rate in Turkey. They're in recession. UH. And I
Speaker 1: don't see the economic reforms happening there. So I think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of problems the emerging markets. Korea just
Speaker 1: came out uh and surprised people with their negative growth. Uh.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of weakness in Asia. Europe is very weak. Uh.
Speaker 1: When you look at Germany, the industrial figures, you look
Speaker 1: at Italy uh, and of course brexits unsettled. So the
Speaker 1: one part of the world which is booming for the
Speaker 1: moment is US, the US, But you know, we can't
Speaker 1: be the locomotive for the rest of the world forever.
Speaker 1: How about going back to Latin America Venezuela. What's your
Speaker 1: current view there? That was is such a difficult situation.
Speaker 1: What's your current view there? Well, I lived there thirteen years,
Speaker 1: my daughter was born there, so I have a very
Speaker 1: strong feeling for what's going on there. The three things
Speaker 1: have got to happen to turn that country around. First
Speaker 1: has to be some sort of political change that uh,
Speaker 1: that the Trump administration thought would happen a month ago,
Speaker 1: six weeks ago. They were too optimistic when they put
Speaker 1: on sanctions. So far, the sanctions haven't worked very well. Um.
Speaker 1: So that is one point. And of course Maduro is
Speaker 1: being backed up not only by the Cubans but also
Speaker 1: by the Russians. The Chinese, I think, are more realistic.
Speaker 1: They will deal with who's ever in because they have
Speaker 1: too much of an investment there. Uh. And I think
Speaker 1: the second point, which is what disturbs me so much
Speaker 1: and I'm spending a lot of time on, is to
Speaker 1: try and help on the humanitarian situation. Here's a country.
Speaker 1: When I lived there, which is the wealthiest country in
Speaker 1: Latin America, had the best medical system. Malaria didn't exist,
Speaker 1: it had been stamped out years before. Now you have
Speaker 1: a malaria outbreaking parts of the country. Uh. You have
Speaker 1: uh what the u N says a three and a
Speaker 1: half million out of third thirty million population refugees, but
Speaker 1: it's more like four or four and a half million,
Speaker 1: and it's growing all the time because there's no plasma
Speaker 1: in the hospitals. Uh, there's no antibiotics in the in
Speaker 1: the hospitals, people are dying. Uh. And you see some
Speaker 1: of these people that go across the border to Brazil
Speaker 1: uh in Roraima state, or go across the go across
Speaker 1: to Columbia or elsewhere, and it's tragic because the malnutrition.
Speaker 1: I just talked to a friend of mine from Argentina
Speaker 1: before the show, and here Argentina, so far away from Venezuela,
Speaker 1: they already have five hundred thousand refugees there. I'll be
Speaker 1: going down and talking with the President of Ecuador about, uh,
Speaker 1: what can be done with the Venezuelan refugees in Ecuador.
Speaker 1: So I'm working with a very well trained, experienced epidemologist
Speaker 1: who's a standout person in this field, to see if
Speaker 1: we can do something. Uh. We're talking to the American
Speaker 1: Development Bank to see if we can do something for
Speaker 1: the refugees outside. But what's really needed in the country.
Speaker 1: They've got to allow in aid, humanitarian aid, and they
Speaker 1: now say they'll allow in some Red Cross aide, but
Speaker 1: really not clear. And of course the last thing before
Speaker 1: you asked me is what's going to happen with the
Speaker 1: economy and the debt, Because this is going to be
Speaker 1: the mother of all debt restructions. We've never seen it
Speaker 1: quite like it, because you have paids of the oil
Speaker 1: company has all this money out as well as a
Speaker 1: sovereign and they're tied together. And the Russians have half
Speaker 1: of Sitko, the oil refiner and the West coast. So
Speaker 1: this is a country that I think is a disaster
Speaker 1: case and the question is what's the outcome going to be.
Speaker 1: Bill Rhodes, thank you so much. You're involved in so
Speaker 1: many incredible things and have been throughout your life. Bill Rhodes,
Speaker 1: President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisor, is
Speaker 1: author of Banker to the World, Leadership Lessons from the
Speaker 1: front Lines of Global Finance and when you talk about
Speaker 1: all of the concern for humanitarian issues. Bill Rhodes also
Speaker 1: just established the new Road Center for Globlastoma at New
Speaker 1: York Presbyterian Hospital. His wife passed away from glioblastoma, which
Speaker 1: is actually the fastest growing at cancer, particularly among younger people.
Speaker 1: So if you want to check out more, just google
Speaker 1: the Roads Center for gleob Blastoma. Intel reports after the
Speaker 1: close today on a Shrinivasan uh covers all things on
Speaker 1: the tech chip side for us. He's a senior semiconductor
Speaker 1: and hardware analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us here
Speaker 1: in a Bloomberg Interactor broker studio. So on it and
Speaker 1: get a big rally in chip stocks. What's driving it?
Speaker 1: Semi Connectors are certainly the tip of the speer. We
Speaker 1: tend to be or the chip stocks tend to be
Speaker 1: incredibly forward looking, and they are prognosticating an incredible, incredible
Speaker 1: second half. Now, if you listen to what t I
Speaker 1: said on the call, that is likely slower to materialize,
Speaker 1: potentially lower in magnitude. But if you look at Skienix,
Speaker 1: which reported earnings last night, They're optimism is actually magnifying.
Speaker 1: So they're starting to see strength potentially as early a
Speaker 1: second to second quarter and in the second half. My
Speaker 1: problem with the chip rally that we have seen so
Speaker 1: far from December to day is the magnitude of the
Speaker 1: rally and how quickly it's come by. Right, So if
Speaker 1: you look at the earnings per share growth for the
Speaker 1: next two months in the socks um the Philadelphia Semi
Speaker 1: Connector Index, it's projected to be about seven percent um.
Speaker 1: And if you look at the price earning stratio of
Speaker 1: that same index over the using the EPs of the
Speaker 1: denominator there, it's eighteen times my my problem. And when
Speaker 1: you break down the components of that right, So, if
Speaker 1: you look at in Video, for example, which has had
Speaker 1: some um structural issues in the last three months, earnings
Speaker 1: for twenty nineteen or its fiscal twenty twenty have come down.
Speaker 1: If you look at m D one of the better ones,
Speaker 1: it's earnings have only gone up eight percent. If you
Speaker 1: look at n XP three three month earnings for down
Speaker 1: eleven percent. So you've had a whole host of these
Speaker 1: companies where the shares have rallied dramatically, so thirty at least,
Speaker 1: and the earnings for caunty or nineteen has gone down
Speaker 1: somewhere in the vicinity of five to so. So this
Speaker 1: is exactly this is fascinating, fantastic numbers to put to this. Basically,
Speaker 1: the performance is not matching the optimism. So what could
Speaker 1: the chips sector be looking at? Fundamentals better catch up.
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. Fundamental is better catch up, and
Speaker 1: if they don't, we're going to see some adjustment. It's
Speaker 1: sort of you know, blow the blow the bottom out
Speaker 1: from under them and just watch them, watch them fall
Speaker 1: or I mean, the big part that has been missing
Speaker 1: in semiconductor demand is one is the handset cycle is
Speaker 1: waning a little bit. We all know that the magnitude
Speaker 1: of the handset cycle weakness is something to be considered
Speaker 1: in the second half. Offsetting this is the impending strength
Speaker 1: from Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, where the CEO went to
Speaker 1: my alma mater engineering school. But that's a separate issue. Um,
Speaker 1: So this cloud company's server strength, that these cloud companies
Speaker 1: server strength is the has been the missing piece of
Speaker 1: the demand puzzle. Everybody's expecting that to come back in
Speaker 1: the second half. It's a substantial portion of CPU consumption,
Speaker 1: memory consumption, um, solid state drive consumption. It better come back,
Speaker 1: and better come back in space, right, So, Dave, I
Speaker 1: think what I'm hearing from on it is maybe these
Speaker 1: semiconductor stocks may have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves,
Speaker 1: but the tech earnings so far have been pretty darn good.
Speaker 1: Well they have, and you have an interesting contrast within
Speaker 1: the group today. I mean, I mentioned Zylenks, the way
Speaker 1: the shares are taken a beating. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: you had numbers out late yesterday from LAMB Research which
Speaker 1: is in the chip equipment business. They went over well,
Speaker 1: the stocks up almost six percent. It's going back and
Speaker 1: forth with Facebook for the biggest game on the day
Speaker 1: in the S and P five hundreds. So you know,
Speaker 1: it's an interesting kind of contrast that's showing up within
Speaker 1: the group on and on twenty seconds here, we didn't
Speaker 1: really hit on Intel. How important is Intel with respect
Speaker 1: of their earnings? You know, Intel's is a little bit
Speaker 1: of a sleeper here between Intel, aim Ding and Video.
Speaker 1: We like all three companies, but for completely different reasons.
Speaker 1: I think Intel expectations are relatively low. Um we actually
Speaker 1: think they could really do well with PCs and the
Speaker 1: data center in the second half of the year. And
Speaker 1: on Street of Us and Senior Analystic covering the semi
Speaker 1: conductors in tech hardware space for Bloomberg Intelligence, Staviles and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Stox editor joining us all here in our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: eleven three oh studios. The question is in how good
Speaker 1: were Tesla's reported earnings yesterday? It was how terrible were they?
Speaker 1: And to answer that question is David Coodlag CEO and
Speaker 1: Chief Investment strategistic Mainstake Capital Management, overseeing about two and
Speaker 1: a half billion dollars from Michigan. David, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for being with us. Tesla reported earnings that were
Speaker 1: below already very low expectations and talked about raising capital
Speaker 1: even after Ellen Musk has said that he wouldn't need
Speaker 1: to raise capital. Shares down two point and that's it.
Speaker 1: What was your take on these earnings, Poles? Yeah, I
Speaker 1: was surprised even at at how big a loss it
Speaker 1: was going to be. We had consensus estiments at about
Speaker 1: sixty nine cents a share for share, and uh facts
Speaker 1: that had a little bit of a dollar. But when
Speaker 1: it came in, it, uh, here's three dollars per share loss,
Speaker 1: even more than we thought it would be. Worse than
Speaker 1: consensus estimates. It was really a miserable quarter all the
Speaker 1: way around. When you consider the news we got on
Speaker 1: deliveries earlier in the um, earlier in the month, and
Speaker 1: now what we thought would would adversely impact earnings. Uh
Speaker 1: we this is this is definitely a very bad quarter
Speaker 1: for Tesla. So, David, it seems like Elon Musk is
Speaker 1: kind of on the earnings call opened the door just
Speaker 1: a bit as it relates to an equity capital raise.
Speaker 1: What do you think is the outlook that does this
Speaker 1: company need to raise money? How much did they need
Speaker 1: to raise when did they need to raise it? Well,
Speaker 1: they do need to uh to raise capital. And they
Speaker 1: talk about having about two point two billion cash on hand,
Speaker 1: but if you take away customer deposits, that falls below
Speaker 1: a billion and a half dollars. Uh, they are burning cash.
Speaker 1: You know, they went from cash generation in the latter
Speaker 1: half of the year, the latter part of the year
Speaker 1: back to a burn rate near a billion dollars in
Speaker 1: this first quarter. And uh, you know, they thought they
Speaker 1: would have cash coming in from uh this you know,
Speaker 1: increasing sales of the Model three along with the stained
Speaker 1: sales of models and Model X. That hasn't happened. He's
Speaker 1: calling for uh eighty or nine to a hundred thousand
Speaker 1: deliveries in the next quarter. I think he's dreaming when
Speaker 1: you look at what the deliveries were in the first quarter.
Speaker 1: So the cash isn't going to come from sales. They're
Speaker 1: going to have to raise cash. It's an inevitability. So
Speaker 1: here's my question. One analyst and I have over what
Speaker 1: Bush said that Tesla's quarter was a top debacle, one
Speaker 1: of the top debacles ever seen in its two twenty
Speaker 1: years covering tech stocks on the street. I'm just wondering,
Speaker 1: given how scathing people have been in their assessment of
Speaker 1: these quarterly reports, why are the shares down only two?
Speaker 1: Um there? I mean there are some there's a following
Speaker 1: for Tesla that I think some real believers in the stock.
Speaker 1: There is a you know, we've seen this floor around
Speaker 1: that two from a technician standpoint, quintuple bottom, whatever it
Speaker 1: may be. Uh, we've seen of Florence Florence stock price
Speaker 1: around this level. But you know that was uh in
Speaker 1: after market trading yesterday. Today we're seeing the shares down
Speaker 1: a little bit further. You know, we also didn't see
Speaker 1: the shares change much on Tesla autonomy day earlier this week,
Speaker 1: our share price change much. So I think we've got
Speaker 1: some things unfold here. He did come out, you know,
Speaker 1: in the earnings call with some guidance that was very positive.
Speaker 1: And remember how this goes, and this is how we
Speaker 1: play the stock. You know, when whether we're whether we're
Speaker 1: buying puts or outright shorting the stock and then covering later,
Speaker 1: Elon can bid up the stock on these claims and
Speaker 1: these promises of what he's gonna do he made some
Speaker 1: bold claims in this earnings announcement about that all the
Speaker 1: hardware is on the cars today for full autonomy, uh
Speaker 1: in a year from now, but for level five autonomy.
Speaker 1: He's made bold claims about the deliveries that they're going
Speaker 1: to make for the remainder of the year. UH, that
Speaker 1: they're going to be a small loss in Q two
Speaker 1: and then profitable in Q three and Q four. I
Speaker 1: don't think they'll have a profitable quarter this year, but
Speaker 1: if you believe the claims that he's making, there's hope.
Speaker 1: You know, there's hope in the in the stock price,
Speaker 1: and it is trading near its low. So there are
Speaker 1: those that think it it might have a chance to
Speaker 1: rally from here, uh, if not right away, later in
Speaker 1: the year, so they Let's switch gears a little bit
Speaker 1: to Ford Motor Company. The reporting coming up, and I
Speaker 1: know you've mentioned in the past, I think this first
Speaker 1: quarter announcement and guidance are arguably the most important in
Speaker 1: the past five years. Why is that, Well, you know,
Speaker 1: let's compare and contrast. Now we switched to you know,
Speaker 1: a company that's really doing a lot of UH has
Speaker 1: had a very good first quarter. UH. You know, Ford
Speaker 1: has their their suv and truck sales really did the
Speaker 1: best among their competition when you look at Toyota, GM, Ford, Uh,
Speaker 1: they really trounce the competition in terms of those sales,
Speaker 1: which are the high margin vehicles. The other thing that
Speaker 1: that Ford suffered from over the past year really since
Speaker 1: Jim Hackett has been there in leadership position, is is
Speaker 1: that messaging, that communication, that articulation of the vision of
Speaker 1: you know, there was the restructuring plan there, multibillion dollar
Speaker 1: restructuring plan. What is the detail. We've seen some of
Speaker 1: that more recently with what they're doing globally, what they're
Speaker 1: doing domestically, also their vision for Auto two point out
Speaker 1: or what we call the future of mobility. And you
Speaker 1: know we now know the flat Rock plant where they're
Speaker 1: investing eight hundred million for autonomous vehicles, and the hiring
Speaker 1: of Tim Stone as the CFO, who comes from the
Speaker 1: digital community, that signed that they're moving to a new
Speaker 1: age company. There's just a lot of things, you know,
Speaker 1: very good performance and what we refer to as the
Speaker 1: legacy business trucks and SUVs that the high margin vehicles.
Speaker 1: They're the best stock performance among the Detroit three. If
Speaker 1: you will in the first quarter in and beating the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundreds performance as good as it was.
Speaker 1: And then you look at the detail we want to
Speaker 1: see on their restructuring plan and the detail on the
Speaker 1: future mobility that's coming together. We're seeing what we want
Speaker 1: to see. Wall Street investors seeing what they want to
Speaker 1: see out of Board. Now. If they maintain the momentum,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a very good year for Ford in
Speaker 1: a in a real turnaround compared to kind of a
Speaker 1: tough and past couple of years. Got it, David Couldla
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. David's the CEO
Speaker 1: and chief investment strategists for Mainstay Capital, joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Michigan. Well, right now, traders are pricing
Speaker 1: in the high increasing likelihood of a FED rate cut
Speaker 1: in the near future, perhaps even later this year. And
Speaker 1: as they do so, our Bloomberg opinion called noists are
Speaker 1: trying to figure out what the FED should do in
Speaker 1: the next downturn because they don't really have that much ammunition.
Speaker 1: One proposal by municipal bonds, and that comes from Brian Chapatta,
Speaker 1: who is a Bloomberg Opinion calumnists. So, Brian, why was
Speaker 1: that the solution that you see is something that is
Speaker 1: potentially attractive for the Federal Reserve. Yeah, so, I guess
Speaker 1: I got a lot of feedback on this. So at
Speaker 1: first of all, the caveat is that if it's another
Speaker 1: recession and the and the FED uses all of its
Speaker 1: ammunition as it has in the past, it's done the
Speaker 1: rate cuts, it's done the typical kiwi and there's still issues,
Speaker 1: what do you do? And my idea was turned to
Speaker 1: the muni market, because you know, states don't have the
Speaker 1: ability to print money. You know, they have to implement
Speaker 1: austerity measures during recessions, and that can really slow down
Speaker 1: economic growth. You don't fund infrastructure, you miss payroll, you
Speaker 1: underfund your pensions. Those are all really bad things that
Speaker 1: affect main street. And so potentially using the FED as
Speaker 1: a tool to extend a lifeline to these states, give
Speaker 1: them a little influx of cash that they'll eventually pay
Speaker 1: back when times are better, could be a reasonable way
Speaker 1: to jump start the economy, uh, during a recession. So historically,
Speaker 1: just give us some history here, the federal government generally
Speaker 1: has not done this. Correct. Yeah, well, that's part of
Speaker 1: the problem is that the Federal Reserve Act prohibits purchasing
Speaker 1: communies that are longer than six months, so they could
Speaker 1: in theory do some real short term uh purchases immunis.
Speaker 1: But if you wanted to actually do something that would
Speaker 1: be a little bit more sustainable and do a little
Speaker 1: bit more than just you know, a really brief thing,
Speaker 1: they'd have to unbend the Federal reserve at This would
Speaker 1: be somewhat challenging though also from a who's your favorite
Speaker 1: child kind of point of view, right, I mean it
Speaker 1: basically ahead of the decide which municipal bonds to buy,
Speaker 1: which projects to finance. Given the fact that there are
Speaker 1: thousands of que SIPs, this is a very a using
Speaker 1: credit market, uh, you know a lot of small issuances,
Speaker 1: and you basically have an active portfolio manager buying munis
Speaker 1: at the federal reserve. Yeah. Well, my idea was sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, keep it at the state level. And as
Speaker 1: far as precedent goes, you do have the European Central
Speaker 1: Bank going out and purchasing debt of various sovereign countries
Speaker 1: within everything and anything, yeah, right within it, with it
Speaker 1: within its purview. So I mean there is precedent for
Speaker 1: you know, effectively you know, setting ah, you know, a
Speaker 1: standard and going out and doing it across variety of
Speaker 1: credit ratings, uh and sort of credit worthiness. So uh,
Speaker 1: that was the idea. And obviously, um, you know, the
Speaker 1: muni markets on fire right now, so there's no reason
Speaker 1: to to do it yet. But this is again sort
Speaker 1: of talking about hypothetical down the road if we face
Speaker 1: some sort of uh, you know, problematic recession that that
Speaker 1: typical Kiwi buying treasuries won't get us out of. So
Speaker 1: is there any support in Washington or the other any
Speaker 1: folks in Washington or at the FED thinking about this
Speaker 1: kind of move? You know, you hear about this every
Speaker 1: once in a while, because I did go back and
Speaker 1: see if this was proposed before, if I was, if
Speaker 1: I was the very first person, and sure enough, you know,
Speaker 1: you go back to you know, things like that. You know,
Speaker 1: there was the Build America bonds program, which was more
Speaker 1: of a of a federal stimulus um. But I think
Speaker 1: the question is sort of is there a political appetite?
Speaker 1: You know, the joke about Infrastructure Week is that you
Speaker 1: know it never comes because there's never this push to
Speaker 1: actually fund infrastructure, even though presumably it's a bipartisan issue,
Speaker 1: so uh means to be seen exactly what the appetite
Speaker 1: is in Washington. You mentioned real quick that muni's were
Speaker 1: on fire. We have seen record inflows into many funds. Why.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's pretty clear that right now
Speaker 1: the cap on state and local tax deductions is really
Speaker 1: making people realize that if you want to lower your
Speaker 1: state income tax rate, there's a really easy way to
Speaker 1: do it, and it's buying muni bonds within your state. Uh.
Speaker 1: This has always been an option to everyone, but before
Speaker 1: if you had a large state and local tax bill,
Speaker 1: you could deduct it obviously from your your federal taxes,
Speaker 1: which means that you know, it wasn't so onerous, um,
Speaker 1: but now you're effectively, uh, you know, getting getting penalized
Speaker 1: for that. And so munis are an easy way to
Speaker 1: to reap some income. And I mean the rates are
Speaker 1: so low, especially relative to treasuries on munis, it's it's
Speaker 1: a real question of how long this can keep going on.
Speaker 1: And but so far, so good, right, very good. Branch
Speaker 1: of Petta from Debt Markets Commas for Bloomberg Opinion. He
Speaker 1: joins us here in Bloomberg. Gonnactor Broker Studio Brian Thanks
Speaker 1: so much for that not whole idea. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
Speaker 1: I'm Lisa abram Woyit's I'm on Twitter at Lisa abram
Speaker 1: woits one before the podcast. You can always catch us
Speaker 1: worldwide on'm Bloomberg Radio