1
00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:03,320
Speaker 1: Why from our nations this budget thing is going to

2
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,160
Speaker 1: do nothing Space Force. I still think it's interesting President

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,840
Speaker 1: Trump not playing his cards yet. Headlines Policy and politics

4
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:15,680
Speaker 1: colliding to Sound with Kevin's The Insiders, the influencers. I

5
00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,160
Speaker 1: would rather see a congressional solution. It's part of my dal.

6
00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,960
Speaker 1: The Senate map in looks a lot different than it

7
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:24,360
Speaker 1: looked in. You really have a divide within Team Trump.

8
00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:26,840
Speaker 1: The president has to do exactly what people seven here

9
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,640
Speaker 1: to do, which is to get it done. He's sound

10
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:35,159
Speaker 1: on with Kevin's Relate on Bloomberg nine one h D

11
00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:40,160
Speaker 1: two Boltimore. We're talking Iran sanctions, President Trump sings Iran

12
00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,120
Speaker 1: Supreme Leader and the provocative provocative move. We have every

13
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,440
Speaker 1: angle covered, the politics, the policy, and what it means

14
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,839
Speaker 1: in the short term. Meanwhile, we're also keeping our eye

15
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,720
Speaker 1: on this upcoming Democratic presidential debate. I leave for Miami tomorrow.

16
00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,440
Speaker 1: The debate to part debate, it's on Wednesday night and

17
00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:04,160
Speaker 1: Thursday night, and again we are watching the policy implications

18
00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:10,880
Speaker 1: and how businesses are preparing themselves for this Democratic president debate,

19
00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:16,119
Speaker 1: the first of many, the first of many, and then

20
00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,040
Speaker 1: the immigration debate debacle. Call it what you want attentions

21
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 1: flaring over the past several days to fall out from

22
00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,319
Speaker 1: all of the leak's coming out of Pennsylvania Avenue on

23
00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,440
Speaker 1: the President's immigration proposals, All Star Panels, Scott Mulhauser, founder

24
00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 1: of Aperture Aperture Strategies, former chief of staff at the U. S.

25
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 1: Mbassy in Beijing, and former deputy chief of staff for

26
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,160
Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden in twenty twelve. And we have

27
00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,640
Speaker 1: Lauren Claffey Republican Strategists, Managing director now at Hamilton's Place,

28
00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 1: Strategies for Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at the

29
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,720
Speaker 1: Department of Homeland Security that's been in the news recently.

30
00:01:56,080 --> 00:02:01,600
Speaker 1: And communications director and spokeswoman for U. S. Senator Saxby Chamberless.

31
00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,760
Speaker 1: Before we get to all of that, President Donald Trump

32
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:09,640
Speaker 1: imposing sanctions on Iran's Supreme leader today as well as

33
00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,840
Speaker 1: eight senior military commanders. This is really one of the

34
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,120
Speaker 1: most provocative steps designed to increase pressure on Iran as

35
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,840
Speaker 1: well as the Islamic Republic. Now, all of this comes

36
00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 1: at a time in which the States Department has been

37
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:29,800
Speaker 1: impacting Iran by really going after all of its various

38
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:35,639
Speaker 1: economic sectors, notably energy as well as others to isolate them,

39
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 1: to get them to lose their nuclear ambitions. Here to

40
00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: break down all of this is Stott Mulhauser, founder of

41
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,240
Speaker 1: the staff at the U. S. Embassy in Beijing and

42
00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 1: former deputy chief of staff to Vice President Joe Biden.

43
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,320
Speaker 1: He's advising much of the presidential field as well. We'll

44
00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,320
Speaker 1: talk to him about that coming up. And Lauren Claffey,

45
00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,120
Speaker 1: she has the Republican strategist now managing director at Hamilton

46
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:02,519
Speaker 1: Place Strategies. Lauren, what happened today with the President really

47
00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,760
Speaker 1: going after and imposing these aron sanctions? So he announced

48
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,080
Speaker 1: the additional sanctions, which is part of this maximum campaign,

49
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,480
Speaker 1: maximum pressure campaign to really squeeze UH the Iranian regime

50
00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,560
Speaker 1: in every wave sable. But you have to understand that

51
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,799
Speaker 1: this was mostly a symbolic gesture, although the administration is

52
00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,520
Speaker 1: arguing that it has um more of an effect than

53
00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 1: maybe we realize UM. But it's mostly viewed as a

54
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:31,080
Speaker 1: symbolic gesture because their economy and is so tight already

55
00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 1: it's been failing and they're there. The Iranian regime is

56
00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 1: failing to a degree UM, and the politics at home

57
00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 1: have become so desperate that. I think that's why you

58
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,360
Speaker 1: see a lot of a RAN lashing out at this point,

59
00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:47,760
Speaker 1: because this maximum pressure campaign actually has been working. UM. However,

60
00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:52,000
Speaker 1: they are not yet brought to the negotiating table. Europe

61
00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,600
Speaker 1: continues to continues to talk to them. UM. A lot

62
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,760
Speaker 1: of our allies over there are still trying to do

63
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,600
Speaker 1: a trade deal with them in order to salvage there

64
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 1: RAN nuclear deal and perhaps ratchet down some of their

65
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 1: umillion nuclear activity. UM. It's important to realize that, you know,

66
00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 1: the United States doesn't just want UH for the civilian

67
00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:15,680
Speaker 1: nuclear program to decrease, but they really also want UH

68
00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 1: to you know, reduce the regional terrorists funding, which is

69
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,640
Speaker 1: an important portion of this. And they also have sounds

70
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 1: detaining detainees. Yes. UM, So you know, there's a lot

71
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,480
Speaker 1: of focus on the nuclear program and you know what

72
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,920
Speaker 1: they do with that, but there's multiple concessions that the

73
00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 1: United States is seeking. You know, Scott I was struck

74
00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,279
Speaker 1: by this because the major two developments within the last

75
00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,359
Speaker 1: two weeks. You've got the Iranians, according to the State Department,

76
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:44,160
Speaker 1: going after the six ships in international waters, UH really

77
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,880
Speaker 1: impacting the energy sectors in various different countries. And then

78
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,320
Speaker 1: Coupled with that, you have the Iranians again, according to

79
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:56,359
Speaker 1: the State Department, shooting down that unmanned drone. The President

80
00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,600
Speaker 1: saying in that interview with Chuck Todd, I thought that

81
00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,839
Speaker 1: was a great interview, by the way, over the weekend,

82
00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 1: that he was ten minutes away, ten minutes away from

83
00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 1: going after and using military force in response to that,

84
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,760
Speaker 1: still leaving military force on the table, but saying that

85
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 1: it was unproportional, disproportional response, which is why he didn't

86
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,160
Speaker 1: go after it. So now he's still relying on sanctions,

87
00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,239
Speaker 1: but it's not like there's much more left to sanction.

88
00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,760
Speaker 1: I mean, that's exactly right. They are the US has

89
00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 1: already hit key sectors, oil, banking, steel onward. So to

90
00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,479
Speaker 1: Lauren's point, some of this is signaling just to saying

91
00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,520
Speaker 1: we're gonna keep squeezing. And I think there's a sense

92
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,120
Speaker 1: that that was sort of what that that threat was

93
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,680
Speaker 1: that the President ultimately pulled back on when he ultimately

94
00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,919
Speaker 1: decided not to drop that bomb. I think he's he

95
00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,040
Speaker 1: thought he could scare him, and I think the play

96
00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:48,640
Speaker 1: is to try to scare him to the table. Now.

97
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,400
Speaker 1: It's interesting, right, because they were at the table and

98
00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,919
Speaker 1: they struck a deal with President Obama. So it's interesting

99
00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,559
Speaker 1: to see that sort of this is obviously it's different

100
00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 1: and things have changed. But but they were at the

101
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 1: negotiating table, so they've been squeezed. It's clear they may

102
00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,320
Speaker 1: come back, but how much more they're going to give?

103
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,000
Speaker 1: So the question that I hear and the and these

104
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 1: are the battle lines of the political discourse, so to speak,

105
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,840
Speaker 1: are that supporters of the president's foreign policy are that

106
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:13,800
Speaker 1: this is a temper tantrum of sorts, for lack of

107
00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,440
Speaker 1: a better phrase, on behalf of Tehran to say, all right,

108
00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,400
Speaker 1: these sanctions are hurting us, so now we're start to

109
00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,200
Speaker 1: have a temper tantrum. Critics of the administration's policies argue,

110
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 1: will see that your policies aren't working because look at them.

111
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 1: They're throwing a temper tantrum and they're shooting down drones

112
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,400
Speaker 1: and going after ships. Here's the President Trump had to

113
00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:34,040
Speaker 1: say earlier today at the White House. We will continue

114
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:39,240
Speaker 1: to increase pressure on Terra until the regime abandons its

115
00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 1: dangerous activities and its aspirations, including the pursuit of nuclear weapons,

116
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 1: increased enrichment of uranium, development of ballistic missiles, engagement in

117
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:53,640
Speaker 1: and support for terror, fueling of arm cuts, and belligerent

118
00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,400
Speaker 1: acts directed against the United States and its allies. That

119
00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,680
Speaker 1: was President Trump speaking earlier today about the decision to

120
00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,600
Speaker 1: impose additional stins on Iran's Supreme leader. Right after that response,

121
00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,520
Speaker 1: did you guys see this? It was like, you know,

122
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,880
Speaker 1: for us in the financial press, we're like, oh my god.

123
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 1: Secretary of Treasury Stephen Manusian walks out, walks out into

124
00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,120
Speaker 1: the briefing room. I want to play for you a

125
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 1: portion of what Secretary Manution had to say. Here's the

126
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary, these are highly highly effective on locking up

127
00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,080
Speaker 1: the Iranian economy, and as the President said, we look

128
00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 1: forward to a time in releasing sanctions if they're willing

129
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:34,480
Speaker 1: to negotiate. That was Treasury Secretary Stephen Manusian elaborating more

130
00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 1: on those particular sanctions that the US government has now

131
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,640
Speaker 1: imposed regarding around I do want to note this, this is,

132
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 1: you know, the chess piece of all of this. UH

133
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 1: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is traveling abroad. He's in

134
00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,760
Speaker 1: Saudi and he's then going through the region. What are

135
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,400
Speaker 1: you going to be looking for Lauren um from from

136
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,880
Speaker 1: this coming from the State Department. So he's going to

137
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,240
Speaker 1: be out there trying to shore up support for or

138
00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: this maximum pressure campaign in light of Iranians reaction to

139
00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,680
Speaker 1: the additional sanctions and um also just the pressure generally.

140
00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 1: So what he's looking for is to make sure that

141
00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,560
Speaker 1: if there is some sort of attack or any sort

142
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 1: of other action by a Ran, that they will um,

143
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 1: that Saudi Arabia will jump in, that they will be supportive,

144
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,240
Speaker 1: that we'll have allies in the region. He's not looking

145
00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,120
Speaker 1: to Europe right now. He's for the Middle Eastern, our

146
00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,520
Speaker 1: Middle Eastern partners in order to kind of prevent any

147
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,760
Speaker 1: sort of extended conflict there. It's particularly interesting with with

148
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:35,400
Speaker 1: Jared's Jared Kushner's introduction and ongoing push for for Middle

149
00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:39,800
Speaker 1: East piece. The challenge with this administration. I say this

150
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,600
Speaker 1: not as a as a democratic just a server observers.

151
00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 1: Without a sustained push, without a consistency here, it's gonna

152
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,480
Speaker 1: be interesting to see how much will last. I think

153
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,839
Speaker 1: seeing how different players in the region will respond is

154
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 1: gonna be fascinating. I think we'll I'll keep a close

155
00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,480
Speaker 1: eye on it. This week, I was struck by this,

156
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 1: uh how the President tweeted out just before this announcement

157
00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 1: working sanctions. It's also there's an international component to this,

158
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 1: I mean, and especially with the Straight of Hormas. That

159
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: is where these ships were mined, that is where these

160
00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,560
Speaker 1: six ships that the Iranians according to the State's Department,

161
00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 1: those ships that the Iranians went after, that's where they

162
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,719
Speaker 1: were traveling through. And that is so crucial to energy,

163
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,720
Speaker 1: the energy sector. And so the presidents weeted out, where

164
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 1: are international counterparts? Why aren't they also paying to protect

165
00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 1: those international waters? So literally hours before these additional sanctions,

166
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,720
Speaker 1: he's also now calling a tactic that we saw with NATO,

167
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,319
Speaker 1: calling on China and to increase how much they're paying

168
00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,160
Speaker 1: that as well. Coming up, we're gonna talk much more

169
00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,679
Speaker 1: about that. We're gonna talk much more about Iran as

170
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 1: well as immigration. Panel stays Scott Muelhauser of Aperture Strategy,

171
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 1: former chief of staff to the U. S. Embassy in Beijing,

172
00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,880
Speaker 1: knows a thing or two about China and former deputy

173
00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,840
Speaker 1: chief of staff were Vice Presidents Joe Biden. Lauren Clappy's

174
00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 1: here Republican strategists now she's over at Hamilton Place. Strategies.

175
00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,959
Speaker 1: She's also of worked as a Deputy Assistant Secretary for

176
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:09,080
Speaker 1: Public Affairs at Homeland Security and for Senator Chambliss. I'm

177
00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,600
Speaker 1: Kevin SERELLI. You can download the sound on podcast on

178
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 1: Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the

179
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also find me on Radio

180
00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,680
Speaker 1: dot com, I Heart Radio, and Spotify. You're listening to

181
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one. This is Sound On with Kevin Surreally on

182
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine one and one oh five point seven of

183
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,840
Speaker 1: m h D two. Boltemore, I'm Kevin CURRELLI, Chief Washington

184
00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,600
Speaker 1: correspondent from Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. I'm really excited.

185
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,640
Speaker 1: I just got the okay that it's official. Eric Schultz,

186
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,280
Speaker 1: senior adviser to President Barack Obama and founder and CEO

187
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,680
Speaker 1: of the Schultz Group. He's coming in get this. He's

188
00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:56,000
Speaker 1: a consultant on Designated Survivor season three, just out on Netflix.

189
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 1: They totally changed up the show, which was already a

190
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,960
Speaker 1: good show, and they've made it much more like House

191
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 1: of Cards with like a little bit of what was

192
00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,839
Speaker 1: that the Sopranos. I love it, so we're gonna check

193
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 1: in with him about the show, how he has taken

194
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,920
Speaker 1: these political scandals, controversies there's been a few in the

195
00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,880
Speaker 1: past year, and how they've ended up in the plot

196
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 1: line for Designated Survivors. Still with me for the hour,

197
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,920
Speaker 1: Scott Malouser, friend by the way, right, I mean friend?

198
00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,240
Speaker 1: Would you describe yourself as a friend to the very

199
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,240
Speaker 1: proch you pulled that? I have got it, got it.

200
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: I feel confident in my position, and I feel confident.

201
00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: I'm curious though his changes Designate Survivor separate question. I'm

202
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,680
Speaker 1: curious where you land? And uh, he's take. I appreciate that.

203
00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:44,120
Speaker 1: Scott Mohouser of Aperture Aperture Strategies. He's worked at the

204
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,480
Speaker 1: U SMBC in Beijing and the Obama White House, and

205
00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 1: now he is He's also previously worked for Vice President

206
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. Lauren Clappy's here Republican strategist managing director at

207
00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:59,000
Speaker 1: Hamilton Place Strategies. She's worked at a Department of Homeland

208
00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:03,360
Speaker 1: Security as well as for Senator Chambliss. All right, big debate.

209
00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,400
Speaker 1: I'm packing my bags tonight, heading down after work down

210
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:11,719
Speaker 1: in Miami, Miami. Keev Um, two nights, you've got Elizabeth

211
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:16,320
Speaker 1: Warren Senator Elizabeth Warren Wednesday Night, claiming the stage not

212
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 1: against Biden. Who's on night number two? What are we

213
00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,120
Speaker 1: looking for? What's everybody talking about? I'm gonna start with

214
00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,200
Speaker 1: the Democrat Scott. I think there's an opening night one,

215
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:26,839
Speaker 1: and I'm curious what you guys saying. I think there's

216
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,880
Speaker 1: a real opening night one. I think Um Warren has

217
00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:31,760
Speaker 1: had a nice rise in recent weeks. I think she's

218
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 1: been rolling out policy after policy, no matter where you're standing,

219
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,720
Speaker 1: and I think Democrats will be loath to go after

220
00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 1: her directly. Um, even if they do contrast, I think

221
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:41,319
Speaker 1: they will be loath to take her on directly. I

222
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,600
Speaker 1: think there's no opening for anyone from Ami Cloba, Julian

223
00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:48,440
Speaker 1: cast to stay tonight Tonight do they attack Trump or

224
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,040
Speaker 1: do they finally gloves off on each other. We started

225
00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:52,920
Speaker 1: to see this with the Biden attacks, but like, are

226
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 1: they all still going to be like we all get along?

227
00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,400
Speaker 1: They don't get along? I think night too. You'll see

228
00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,280
Speaker 1: more of that as they guess, but you'll see some

229
00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 1: of them attempted by by taking down some of the

230
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,680
Speaker 1: more popular members, but I think elected, but I think

231
00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 1: those are the fringes of the stage, particularly with nothing

232
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,160
Speaker 1: to lose. Those who sort of barely got in, I

233
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,839
Speaker 1: think you may see them with their gloves off, knowing

234
00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:16,280
Speaker 1: that they need to get back in. But I do

235
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,559
Speaker 1: think first night you can do a little bit issue

236
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,080
Speaker 1: contrast to a little bit of sort of telling your

237
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,040
Speaker 1: own story and the hopes that's enough, because there's got

238
00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:25,520
Speaker 1: to be room for one or two to get a

239
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,240
Speaker 1: debate pump out of. Yeah, that's what I mean. You know,

240
00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,200
Speaker 1: obviously the Republican side, we've had these large primaries for

241
00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,679
Speaker 1: a couple of cycles. Um, and what's always surprising is

242
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 1: the front the front runner is always the one that

243
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,480
Speaker 1: kind of drops. There's always some surprise that comes out

244
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 1: of the debates, right because I mean you see the polling. Uh,

245
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,440
Speaker 1: I forget who just recently did it. But Democratic primary

246
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,600
Speaker 1: voters are not paying attention right now. They have not

247
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,600
Speaker 1: been paying attention to the debate. What's like, it's like

248
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 1: all these Dems Joe Sestak got in by the way,

249
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,400
Speaker 1: I'm from Pennsylvania. Um, all these Dems are having this

250
00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 1: like party in America is like, yeah, I don't want

251
00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,520
Speaker 1: to show up yet. Yeah, they're waiting, They're waiting and

252
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 1: they need to know. They don't. They don't even know

253
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 1: what the issues differences between the people. But I think

254
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 1: it's a miscalculation. And Scott, you have much more experience

255
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,240
Speaker 1: than me, you know better, so tell me why I'm wrong.

256
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 1: I think it's a miscalculation not to take a national

257
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,840
Speaker 1: platform and just come out swinging. That's Trump got the

258
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,120
Speaker 1: Trump won the debates because he understood that the free

259
00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 1: media as long as you're in that top tier consistently

260
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 1: and you're framing the parameters parameters of the debate, everyone

261
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,280
Speaker 1: else doesn't get air time. But the questions what are

262
00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 1: those others do? Right? I think that's the real question.

263
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 1: I think to a launch point about crowded field, it's

264
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,560
Speaker 1: a crowded field. You've got ten at nite, you've got

265
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: two hours. You're talking at most seventy eight nine ten

266
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 1: minutes for some of these guys at most, who's the

267
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,400
Speaker 1: most nervous? Oh, I think there are people that could

268
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,680
Speaker 1: not be on the stage movie forward. So I think

269
00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna be people so something new entrance like Bill

270
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,160
Speaker 1: de Blasio, who are at one percent, They're going to

271
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 1: be folks on the periphery, you know who just taunt

272
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 1: that woman and it is early right and self help

273
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 1: woman Maryan Williamson, Yeah, Maryann william Son. I mean I'm

274
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 1: kind of just curious about her. And then Andrew Yang.

275
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 1: Andrew Yang, I think is gonna have a breakout and

276
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,440
Speaker 1: night I predicted. I mean, you know, I'm not kidding.

277
00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 1: I really think you will somewhat. The Yang gang is coming.

278
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 1: I mean, there's something right, there's something too easy early.

279
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 1: These guys are introducing themselves and someone's going to connect

280
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: you in a way. They're gone bounce. I think voters

281
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,440
Speaker 1: are so indecisive they're gonna be like picking and choosing.

282
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,280
Speaker 1: You've got to be the choice. That's what I'm That's

283
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: that's my point is that when you have a crowd

284
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,200
Speaker 1: of twenty plus people and and to Lawrence point, and

285
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 1: when people are deciding, they're deciding who they're going to

286
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 1: be deciding between, and you want to be in the

287
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 1: in between. My question to Scott, who is very modest

288
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 1: and has advised countless countless presidential candidates on the debate stage,

289
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,000
Speaker 1: I want you to take off your political ideological cap

290
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,200
Speaker 1: and literally walk us through because we don't know this.

291
00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 1: You have the luxury of knowing this and taking it

292
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 1: for granted, What is it actually like at a debate

293
00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 1: stage this early on? What is going on on the

294
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 1: scrappy upstart campaigns and learn? And I've spent some time

295
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,560
Speaker 1: with with senators doing it too, And I'll tell you

296
00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 1: what you're doing is you're looking for any minute of

297
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 1: spare time to bone up right, to study, to prep,

298
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,640
Speaker 1: to get ready, not just on your policies, but on

299
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 1: your hits. How you're going to respond when you know

300
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 1: there's an attack, they're coming for you, Kevin, or you

301
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: or you Lauren, know that you come for the king,

302
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,200
Speaker 1: your best not right, I mean, but I think and

303
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,040
Speaker 1: and Lauren for free to jump in here. But in short,

304
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 1: what you're doing is you're getting ready and you're using

305
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: your time. Sometimes that's a full two hour mock session

306
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,160
Speaker 1: with nine other people and podiums. Sometimes that's you in

307
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 1: a briefing book or you and a you and a

308
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 1: aid in a room. But you gotta be ready not

309
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 1: only for what you want to say, but for over

310
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 1: Everyone's different, right, Like I've I've prep some principles where

311
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 1: they do they want the smaller debate, it's not the

312
00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 1: full scale things that you see in the TV shows

313
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,920
Speaker 1: all the time where there's mocks senators and you know,

314
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 1: like all the debates and things. Um, it really depends

315
00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:58,160
Speaker 1: on the member. And a lot of it too is

316
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 1: optics because these are televised. It's it really is theater,

317
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,280
Speaker 1: and so a lot of it is just practicing delivery

318
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 1: and making sure that it doesn't necessarily matter what you say,

319
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 1: it's how people feel about it, and so it's really

320
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,199
Speaker 1: just making sure that people feel like they know you,

321
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,479
Speaker 1: that they're comfortable with you, that they could get behind you.

322
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 1: I call it value messaging, value telegraphing. And you want

323
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,280
Speaker 1: to be you want your prep to be harder than

324
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 1: your session. If your prep is harder than your session

325
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 1: than the actual debate itself, you've done something right, all right.

326
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,640
Speaker 1: You know, it's like this fascinating because this is literally

327
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 1: I would almost think that like in this crowded of

328
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 1: the field and coming up we'll talk more about this,

329
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 1: that it would be harder to go try to stand

330
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 1: out in the crowd. It's twenty than to than to

331
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 1: do a one on one debate. And plus I don't

332
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 1: think many no offense advisors have that much experience on

333
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 1: advising debates of twenty plus people we have to Coming up,

334
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 1: we'll talk more of the promise except for the Republicans

335
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,399
Speaker 1: right exactly. Down learn the sound on podcast on iTunes,

336
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, or by down learning the Bloomberg Business app.

337
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,359
Speaker 1: Check us out on the Terminal Radio dot com, I

338
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 1: Heart Radio and Spotify. I'm Kevin SERELLI. You're listening to

339
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one. You're listening to Sound On with Kevin Surreally

340
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven m h

341
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 1: D two Baltimore song off my all time favorite album,

342
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,680
Speaker 1: All That You Can't Leave Behind by YouTube. But I

343
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 1: gotta be candid here. It's not that much beautiful day anymore, folks.

344
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,920
Speaker 1: The rains coming down. Wake up if you're in your car.

345
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:29,199
Speaker 1: It's Monday. We've got a huge week, huge week the Osaka, Japan,

346
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,439
Speaker 1: President Trump and President shi Jingping. We've got the first

347
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 1: Democratic presidential debate happening in Miami. We're gonna be broadcasting

348
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 1: there on Wednesday and Thursday. So big, big issues on

349
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 1: trade internationally obviously, uh and the debate front and we're

350
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 1: going to be covering it from every angle. Coming up

351
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 1: later on in the show, Eric Eric Schultz senior advisor

352
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 1: to President Barack Obama and the founder and CEO of

353
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 1: the Schultz Group. He's now advising designated survivor. He's gonna

354
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 1: stop by give us an update on that. I want

355
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 1: to talk immigration with our all Star panel. Scott Mulhouser,

356
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 1: founder of Aperture Strategies. He also previously has advised that

357
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 1: he was deputy former deputy chief of staff for former

358
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden, and he has worked at the

359
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:21,680
Speaker 1: US Embassy in Beijing. UH. Lauren Clappy's here Republican Strategy.

360
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:26,199
Speaker 1: She's worked at the Department of Homeland Security dun COM's

361
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 1: work there as well as First Senator Saxby Chambliss, and

362
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: is managing director now at Hamilton Place Strategies with Tony

363
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 1: and keV Kevin Maddam the other keV Um. So, all right,

364
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 1: this whole entire debate over the weekend, my head was spinning.

365
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 1: I was talking with folks at your previous employer employer, Lauren,

366
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,399
Speaker 1: at DHS. I'm trying to wrap my head around what

367
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 1: the policy is going to be regarding immigration. Catch us

368
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 1: up to speed over where we are now and whether

369
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 1: or not there will be these deep or patients. So

370
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 1: just to back up, right, because it seems like it

371
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 1: came out of nowhere. But um, a couple of months ago,

372
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,239
Speaker 1: Congress started negotiating on appropriations bill. So this is kind

373
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 1: of where this all starts. And they starts with the

374
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 1: probes just to get d C nerdy real quick, that's

375
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 1: my favorite thing to do. And uh so they were

376
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 1: negotiating furiously. They said that they would at something on

377
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: the President's desk for signature by July fourth, recess low

378
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:29,120
Speaker 1: and behold, Congress is missing a deadline. That's pretty normal. Um.

379
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 1: And plus they weren't anywhere near the House and the

380
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: Senate had different bills. They were going to have to

381
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: go to conference anyways to kind of shake it out

382
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 1: those differences. Um. But there was going to be border

383
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 1: wall funding, there was going to be funding for ice,

384
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: there was going to be funding for CBP, UM, there

385
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 1: was going to be funding for sort of this broader

386
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: humanitarian crisis that's going on at the border right now. Um.

387
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 1: But you know, they couldn't really reconcile. They're still in

388
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: the middle of negotiations. And so then uh, Trump comes

389
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 1: in Friday. The Post reports that Trump's going to deport

390
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 1: all of these families and that the raids are going

391
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: to start on Sunday. Then like literally less than twenty

392
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: four hours later, over the weekend, he's like, no, I'm

393
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: not going to do that because the Democrats requested No,

394
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 1: I don't even know. Yeah, he thought that Nancy Pelosi

395
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 1: was blinking and that he was going to get what

396
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: he wanted as far as border wall funding and other things,

397
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 1: and so he was willing to pull the you know,

398
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 1: remove his threat for deportations. Uh. That doesn't seem to

399
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 1: be true though. You actually now have conservatives kind of

400
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: blasting him for for a failed negotiation, uh, in regards

401
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 1: to this UM. But they also think that the decatitions

402
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: would be non controversial, which they already were. Yeah. I mean,

403
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,679
Speaker 1: I think there's got to be a solution here that

404
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: is comprehensive enough to both ensure that we have scare boarders,

405
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: but take care of these kids, these heartbreaking images, these

406
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: kids and these families. And I think, UM, no one

407
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: latest as evidenced by Trump recently stares down Nancy Pelosi

408
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: and loses. I think that a couple of times the

409
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: President's tried it. UM. He has struggled from the shutdown

410
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: on through the State of the Union address onward. And

411
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: I think watching this happen and counting on herd a

412
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: buckle isn't the right play. But more stepping aside from

413
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 1: partisan politics, we ought to be able to come up

414
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: with a solution here that um and I know it's

415
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: so toxic. I know it one of the third rails

416
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: of modern American politics. We've got to come up with something.

417
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: They can ensure our boards are secure, but also take

418
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: care of these families made to get immigration, which is

419
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: a lot of the bedrock of this country. To the messaging,

420
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: Lauren from your time at DHS is the messaging part

421
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: of the strategy is the messaging part of the policy

422
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: to create confusion. So you're forecasting two families who are

423
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: considering or smugglers who are considering illegally coming into the

424
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: country not to do so because they could be Yeah,

425
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: I don't think the confusion part is although you know,

426
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: it's interesting when President Trump first came into office, there

427
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: was a sharp define in apprehension order because and they

428
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 1: attributed it to the fact that his rhetoric was so

429
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: um intense on immigration that people stopped work to stop

430
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 1: trying to come A quarter illegally UM. But then we

431
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 1: saw massive spies. There was all of a sudden an

432
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: increase in UM coverage on the our asylum laws and

433
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 1: the ways that you can exploit them, and then also

434
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: the children's policy, and so there's been a really big

435
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: spike in apprehensions right now. So the administration will say

436
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: that UH, that their deterrence messaging is what they call

437
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: it is actually UH is actually something that they are

438
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: seeking to do, and it's actually advertising campaigns go on

439
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: in Central America to encourage people not to come to

440
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 1: the United States. So they kind of lump it under deterrence.

441
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: And I think you'll hear more about this Wednesday and

442
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: Thursday night turned into but I think you'll hear UM

443
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 1: stories about UM what each of these twenty candidates would

444
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: do UM in dealing with this. But I think it's

445
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 1: it's it's a problem at present today. Well, the president's

446
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: administration today said they're running out of money to shelter

447
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: these kids. There's not UM. We gotta figure this out,

448
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: and it's it's it's time, you know, all right, did

449
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: you guys see that you know you've got this immigration issue,

450
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 1: this immigration situation. It candidly I don't really see much

451
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: divide in terms of how Democrats are whether or not

452
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: that will come up on the first debate. Uh stage

453
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: down in Miami. But coming up we're gonna have much

454
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 1: more politics policy. You can download the sound on podcast

455
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: on Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com or by down

456
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also find us on Radio

457
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: dot com, I Heart Radio and Spotify. I'm Kevin CURRELLI,

458
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: Scott Mulhouser stays Lauren Clappy. Days you're listening to Bloomberg.

459
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: This is Sound On with Givins. Relate on Bloomberg one

460
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: and one seven m h D two, Baltimore, Monday. Folks,

461
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: busy week, Buckle up, put on your seatbelt. You're driving

462
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: home from work safe. We've got the debate happening in Miami,

463
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: the first Democratic presidential debate. I head to Miami tomorrow night.

464
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: I'll be there full coverage on Bloomberg Television in and

465
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Meanwhile, if the politics wasn't enough, then you've

466
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 1: got the g twenty. President Trump will be meeting at

467
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: that one off meeting with President shi Jing Ping the

468
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 1: trade talks continue and if it takes place in Osaka, Japan.

469
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: We've been breaking down all of the policy that could

470
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: come up at that debate, including Iran All Star panel.

471
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: Lauren Clappy's here. She is a Republican strategist now managing

472
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: director at Hamilton Place Strategy. She's worked from the Department

473
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: of Homeland Security as well as up in the Senate. Also.

474
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: Scott Moulhauser found Aperture Strategies. He's also worked for as

475
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: the deputy chief of staff to former Vice President Joe Biden,

476
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: as well as the former chief the former chief of

477
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: staff at the US Embassy in Beijing. And he just

478
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 1: walked in. He's an advisor on the Netflix version of

479
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: Designated Survivor. Have you seen it? It's awesome, Eric Schaltz.

480
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: He is also a former senior advisor to President Barack

481
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: oh Obama. All right, Eric, I want to get to

482
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: this in a second, but I want to finish up.

483
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: We were talking earlier with Scott and Lauren about the debate.

484
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: What is the craziest thing, Scott, that you've ever seen

485
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: happen behind the scenes at a presidential debate? Well, the

486
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: best thing that is sometime out which was not my moment,

487
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: but Charlie Christen, the fan was pretty good when he

488
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 1: insisted that you have a fan blowing in the amidst

489
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: unberneath the I mean that's Eric and Laura I insist

490
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: on that as well for this little Okay, go ahead, um,

491
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: but there are so many I mean, watching people the

492
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: maximum debate politics, and and and and and debate. Lawa's

493
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: if you have a crummy final session, you'll have a

494
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: great debate. What's the craziest thing you've seen, Laura, This

495
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: one's actually too so I encourage our Betty to look

496
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: at it. But you know, when they messed up the

497
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: last Republican debates in the last cycle, they messed up

498
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: the order and so you Carson standing there, you know,

499
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: just waiting. I mean, that's inevitable, right, There's always going

500
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: to be something that dong, and you're going to have

501
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: some candidate that is sort of awkwardly embarrassed. All right, Eric,

502
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: you've worked for Obama. You know a thing or two

503
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 1: about scandals John Edwards, So what uh, what about in

504
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: terms of how these political sagas end up or inspire

505
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: some of the storylines on shows like Designated Survivor. Sure,

506
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 1: I got interested in the show because the showrunner who

507
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: had produced e Er and Lawnder asked for you exactly

508
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: wanted um to inject that same sense of authenticity into

509
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: the Netflix reboot of the show. And by moving off

510
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: of network programming and onto Netflix, they got freedom to

511
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: be edgier and racier, and we took full advantage. So

512
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: what is something that you can tell us that that

513
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 1: that maybe is rooted in real life? Uh, mice in

514
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 1: the White House. There's mice in the White House. There's

515
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: squirrels out on Pebble Beach where people do their live shots. Yes, exactly,

516
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 1: it's um. Well, we talked a lot about this, and

517
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: I was with the writers, which is the sort of

518
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: hollywood ization of White House isn't as glamorous as it

519
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: as you think it would be. Alright, looks talking about

520
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: the show all that. I'm excited to see the reboot.

521
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: Actual tune in. Yeah, the White House is disgusting in

522
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 1: real life. I mean really, I mean truly, I think

523
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 1: that is a good addition to Hollywood. Do you think,

524
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: like I grew up, I was watching The West Winger

525
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: over the weekend just because I have no life, and um,

526
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: I was watching an episode of it. But I mean,

527
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: how does how does the culture and the current political

528
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: climate actually reflect in how meat meat and how consumers

529
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: of media are are watching. Is it a reflection of

530
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: the times? Designated Survivors kind of dark? Not dark, but

531
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: I mean it's edgier. It's not like West Wing, which

532
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: is a little more optimistic. It's interesting. We um President

533
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: Kirkman played by Key for Southerland legendary. I got actually

534
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: like a matchup at twenty four with Designated Survivor. Yeah.

535
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: So he obviously become president around States, he was the

536
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: Housing Secretary and uh after a terrorist attack at the

537
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: State of the Union, and this is his first time

538
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 1: running for office. Is the arc of season three, and

539
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: the premise is how can a good person, a true

540
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: principal public servant, survive in the rough and tumble of

541
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: a presidential campaign? Sounds like fantasy, Lauren, absolute fantasy. Come on.

542
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: I mean we got sheose hope, hope, we have two

543
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: dozen when why? But we'll see if that holds true,

544
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 1: Bates um. So, we were also talking about trade policy

545
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: and international components and whatnot, and I just want to

546
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: catch everybody up to speed in terms of the developments

547
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: with the twenty and and be we'll come back to

548
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: the the second. But in terms of what's coming up

549
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: at the G twenty with President Trump and President what

550
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: are you going to be looking for, Scott. I mean

551
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: this is expectations are pretty low right now. Even Trump's

552
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 1: own cabinet is signaling that not much is coming out

553
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: of this. But you know, the President is going to

554
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: be closely watching both the looming election and the Italy

555
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: economy and gonna have to make a decision about what

556
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: he's gonna do, and at some point, staring down the

557
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: Chinese and seeing farmers, manufacturers, workers all suffer may not

558
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: be the best politically. They've sort of backed off, Lauren,

559
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: in terms of the rhetorical approach that the administration has taken.

560
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: You have a former current Vice president, uh, Mike Pence,

561
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: Mike Pence canceling that speech that he was supposed to deliver,

562
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 1: a blistering critique against the Chinese coming from last week. Uh,

563
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: sort of the signaling that they're they're easing sort of

564
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: the rhetorical attention that has emerged. The Commerce secretary equivalent

565
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: in China releasing a statement over the weekend also sort

566
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: of de escalating some of the tensions. But I'm not

567
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: sure that anyone's saying that they're going to get some

568
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: type of deal at the g twanting No, I don't

569
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: think that anybody expects a deal by any means, But

570
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: just the fact that they're meeting and having a conversation

571
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 1: I think is a good sign. Um. You know, it's

572
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: gotten to the point where you have the to the

573
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: world's two largest economies, UH fighting like this, and China

574
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: is currently raising or lowering terrorists for every other country

575
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: while raising for American goods. So, I mean, they've really

576
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: put the pressure on the United States to back down

577
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: a little bit, and so I think that you'll see

578
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: at least some negotiations take place. But I would agree

579
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: with Scott's assessment that you've seen everyone kind of really

580
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: lower expectations for this, just to make sure that there's

581
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: at least some diplomacy that takes place. And I think

582
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: a lot of us who want to be tougher on

583
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: China and think there's a way to do it may

584
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: not think tariff to the right approach, right, I think

585
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: there's a way, whether it's you know, human rights, whether

586
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: it's academic freedoms, are an array of things I think

587
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: that can have you be tough on China. Both business

588
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: wise and and a host of other fields that don't

589
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: set on terribly as they boomeram boomerang back on America.

590
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: I just can't stop thinking about the juxtaposition of how

591
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: the populist president will be overseas at the G twenty. Meanwhile,

592
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 1: as the populist Democratic presidential candidates start their attempts in Miami,

593
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: Florida this weekend in order to try to differentiate themselves

594
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: on the back, but really that puts Biden, I would

595
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: argue at somewhat of a disadvantage because if he's perceived

596
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: as not being that able to break away from our

597
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,479
Speaker 1: left of his party on issues like tariffs or issues

598
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: like trade negotiations, could be a rough spot for him. Now.

599
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you can make a case conversely

600
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 1: that playing in international spaces is a place where he

601
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: has he has legitimacy, and he has gravitas, and he

602
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: has credibilities like Lauren. So, I think the thing with

603
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: China that's going to be so interesting, especially when it

604
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: comes to the Democratic debate, is how much of a

605
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: national security conversation we actually we've been talking about it

606
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: from a tariffs and economic perspective, but you know, there's

607
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 1: a whole conversation going on that we're trying to prevent

608
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 1: UH five G technology from being assembled in China at all.

609
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: And then and the Comics Department has a huge entity list, um,

610
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: and you know, we're blocking transactions of Chinese companies coming

611
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: into the United States, mergers and acquisitions and such. So

612
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: I think that there's actually a lot of different ways

613
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: that they can go to the path of differentiating themselves,

614
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 1: um with a more Um. It's still a tough ch

615
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: but maybe not in the same vein as the Trump industry.

616
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: All right, Lauren Claughey, thanks for stopping by. Scott Mulheuser

617
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: coming up, we got much more with Eric Schaltz. You

618
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: gotta go to iTunes because we're going to interview him

619
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: specifically on this Designated Survivor reboot on Netflix. I'm telling

620
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: you it's awesome. It's it's it's it's like better than

621
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 1: when it was on the network, but still trade stays

622
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: true to its authenticity. So you can find that on

623
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the

624
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also find me on radio

625
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: dot com, I Heart Radio and Spotify. I'm Kevin Currelli,

626
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg one