WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 Q3 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:11.240 Come check it down, then come now down. Then Wednesday morning, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:13.840 August sixteenth, twenty twenty three, it is the Beating the 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:17.479 Book Podcast. It's Gil Alexander decided to get off my 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:22.920 behind podcast season. Of course NFL season upon us very soon. 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.360 I think we're three weeks away. We're gonna, of course, 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.320 have the Megapod each and every Thursday. Todd Wishnev and 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:32.080 Jeff parlay the staples and the rotating guests from week 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:36.800 to week. The Megapod continues in well now double digit seasons. 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.040 We look forward to that each and every Thursday, beginning 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.760 right prior to week one. Guessing Lines with Christy Andrews 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.400 will continue as well. The first Guessing Lines is always 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.920 the Monday morning after Week one of the NFL season. 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.120 But between now and then a few podcasts an NFL preview, 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:54.720 a US Open Tennis preview coming up, and in what 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:57.560 has been the longest running series in the history of 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.800 this podcast, the Beating the Book Podcast and before that, 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:05.000 the Betting Dork Podcast, we do our Baseball quarterly derivative 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:07.440 show Q three, twenty twenty three with our buddy base 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:11.200 winner Mark Borchard from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:12.039 How you doing, Mark? 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:15.960 That's so cool. We've been doing this for thirteen years. Wow, 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:16.720 that's nice. 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:18.600 Thirteen years. I just right before we got on air, 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.880 I went back to c When was the first time. 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:24.040 This was before we did the Derivative Show. My fifth 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:31.040 ever Betting Dork episode June twenty third, twenty ten MLB 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.920 saber Metrics Tribute. This is the Betting Dork feed that's 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:38.119 still up at iTunes Forum. Guest base winner emerges from 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:41.120 the lab to give his four MLB picks of the day. 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:42.640 I don't know how you went on those four, but 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.160 I assume it was. Okay, we'll have to check. I'm 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:48.080 thinking we went four no, oh, we got a totally 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:52.440 four to oh, totally. The Quarterly Show, though, is the longest, running, 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.200 even longer than the megapod and guessing lines like you 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.000 and I have been doing this. I don't know how 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:58.720 we got started on this, but Q one, Q two, 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:01.120 Q three, QU one, Q two and Q three of 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.080 each Major League Baseball season. What Mark and I do, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.400 for those who are unfamiliar, is we do we call 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:08.760 the MLB Derivatives Betting Show, which is we look at 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:12.560 the teams that to that point in the season. Obviously 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:14.359 this is the quarter pole. To this point in the 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:17.239 season have been the biggest money makers, the biggest losers 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:19.880 for betters. With a bizarro exercise, if you had bet 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:22.440 them every single day, every single game all year as 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.040 a favorite or a dog, doesn't matter what you'd be up, 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:26.960 what you'd be down. We do that for the money line, 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:28.400 We do that with splits. We do that with the 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:30.880 run line as well, the de facto power ranking. Those 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:32.600 who have listened to the series for a long time 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:36.280 remember that phrase. We do it for starting pitchers. We 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.240 do it for umpires. Mark is great because you have 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.720 historical umpire numbers, so we see are this year's reliably 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:44.240 over and under umpires when they're calling balls and strikes 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:49.040 historically corroborated by Mark's numbers as well. All designed to 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.360 make you, you know, to get you to make smarter bets. 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:55.720 We also do first five inning numbers and proprietary first 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:59.920 inning numbers. Again, the whole purpose of this is not 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:02.480 to say, oh, look what's happened, but it's determined what's 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.840 narrative and what's predictive and Mark for those who are 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.840 just listening to the podcast side, we did this on 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:12.600 the radio side yesterday, and I wish we had done 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:14.920 this on the podcast side yesterday too, but that's just luck. 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:17.600 And would you like to explain to folks what happened yesterday? 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:19.320 Yesterday when we did this, it was awesome. 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.360 Well, I don't know, we're. 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.280 Talking about talking about the first yeah. 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:28.880 Yeah, yeah, So seven reno oh wolda is worst worse 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:32.160 in baseball? And Gil actually put out a play, which 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:34.560 he never does, and well, I shouldn't say that because 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:36.520 you're spot playing. So this was a spot play. It 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:38.960 was a great spot play, and you bet it a 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.240 bunch of different ways. I personally bet it drawing no bet, 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:44.040 which is cool. You can get that nowadays. Uh, Braves 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:45.840 first inning draw no bet, and we got a three 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:47.880 run homer I think with two out skill correct me 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:48.440 if we. 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.040 Did with two outs. So again, it was like I 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.600 bet the Braves. We found out on the show yesterday 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:55.880 doing the first inning numbers. Is that seven reno? Yeah, 0:03:56.240 --> 0:04:00.480 the worst on base percentage against it in the first 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:02.960 inning this year. And the Braves have the best run 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:04.560 differential in the first day this year, and fad the 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.560 Braves run differential in the first inning is better than 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:11.920 all but like five major league club's entire season run differential, 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.480 and so it's it's rare that those two things align. 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:17.640 And so it triggered a bet on the Braves at 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:20.679 plus one forty nine and plus one forty first inning 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.240 to score a run. And then also Braves run line 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.640 first five Braves, you know, minus a half run, Braves 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:28.440 full game, minus one and a half. So it was 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.000 just a great day. But again, it just the confluence 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.320 of events on that. So hopefully you know there's something 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:37.000 on this show that can sort of trigger maybe not 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:40.239 quite as precisely as that one, but something moving forward. 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:43.640 Shall we begin, sir, sounds good, Gil, All right, let's 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:47.359 do it. Let's go to teams. This courtesy of Covers 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.320 dot com, and we'll roll through these because these we 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.200 went through this yesterday and it's somewhat surprising, not the 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.320 very top one. It is not surprising to anybody that 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:57.680 the Baltimore Orioles, again, if you would bet them every 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.320 game this year as a favorite, as a dog, whatever 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:02.840 Bizarro exercise, if you'd bet them every game this year 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:06.360 on the money line, you'd be up twenty six plus units. 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:09.359 That's even after they lost yesterday. You'd still be up 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:12.880 twenty six units, which is more than ten units more 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:17.960 than the next most profitable team, which is interestingly the 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.720 Washington Nationals, who despite a fifty three and sixty seven 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.920 record in the standings, would have you up fifteen point 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:28.400 three eight units per covers because they're a dog so often. 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:34.120 Cincinnati rounds out the top three Texas, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:37.440 maybe more predictable teams after that. But are you surprised 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.000 Washington and Cincinnati are there? 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:45.000 Washington is super surprising because you just wouldn't think that 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:48.400 they're you know, it's not like their pitching's great by 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:52.400 any means. Well, I think there was an interesting stat 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.320 I saw the other day Washington versus ground ball pitchers 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:59.800 per Baseball Reference second Best OPS and Baseball. I thought 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:01.719 that was super interesting because I would have never thought that. 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:05.279 It's interesting. Do you, by the way, Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.760 the only ones that would have you up double digits. Baltimore, 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:12.640 as I said, twenty six plus units, Washington fifteen point 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:16.120 three to eight, Cincinnati thirteen point nine to one units 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.080 to the positive again betting them on the money line 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:23.480 every game this season? Do you expect the Baltimore thing 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.160 to continue. Do you expect the Washington thing to continue? 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:29.599 I think the Oriols are gonna come down a little bit. 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:33.440 You Look, you know, I do something on my side, Gil. 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.039 I don't know if anybody's checked this out, but it's 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.600 actually pretty good as far as like saying, well, has 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.080 this team been lucky? Has this team been lucky? Oriol 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:44.560 second luckiest on my site based on and I use 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:47.520 weightter runs, creative plus, expert minus, and defensive run saved 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:51.640 if you compare the standard wins to the expected wins. 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.160 So I think that they've been been pretty lucky. Gil. 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:58.160 So I would say, you know, right now, there's six 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.760 seventeen winning percentage. Too bad. You can't make this bet. 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.240 Are they going to be under six seventeen winning percentage? 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:05.200 I would say yes, Gil. 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:07.520 It's interesting because you were talking, by the way, you 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:09.680 like the Padres for those who care about if those 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:11.840 who listen to this today that you're actually on the 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:13.960 padres against the Oriols. We were talking on a Numbers 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.960 game this morning. The Orioles twenty two and eleven in 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:19.840 one run games this year. That is the best one 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:23.640 run record probably by far. Well, No, the Milwaukee Brewers 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:25.360 have something to say about that they're twenty four and ten, 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:27.400 but the Oriols twenty two and eleven in one run 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:29.960 games and yes, by pythag with Aagrian theory and Bill 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.480 James theory, they ought to have won seven games less 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.320 than they have seven games fewer. And we talked about 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:40.760 the Padres who have been the most unfortunate. They ought 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:43.440 to be ten games better than they are in the 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:47.120 standings six and nineteen and one run games, oh and 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:49.880 ten and extras. Oh my god. 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.400 Anyway, you know it gives It's funny when we do 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:54.679 this show. I come up with all these ideas because 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:56.800 I love how your mind works, and it just I 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:58.960 listen to what you say and it kind of stimulates 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.720 my mind and I'm like thinking, oh, it'd be really 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.160 cool to have like a chart with like winning percentage 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.360 for one run games, like by every team, so you 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:08.400 could see, Okay, well this is what they're winning percentage is, 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.440 and then kind of like, you know, I guess if 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.840 you're doing like stock or four X charts or something, 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.000 see if they're you know, if it goes up and 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:17.240 down type thing. It would be super interesting. It's something 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:18.760 to think about on the off season. I have all 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.360 these projects skill in my mind to do in the 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:21.880 off season. 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:24.040 It's great. I would love to see all your stuff. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:27.720 It's just a trove, a treasure trove of baseball stuff. 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:29.760 We stray. I didn't mean to stray all that. But 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:31.680 by the way, the worst teams on the money line, 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:35.959 no surprise, Oakland would have cost you nearly thirty units 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.120 over twenty nine units in the red this year. By 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.120 the way, if you're betting Oakland each and every game 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.440 this year on the money line, something's probably wrong with you, 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.840 because for the purposes of this bizarro exercise, they'd be 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.040 the biggest hemorrhagure. The Mets would be the second worst, 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:52.480 good god, over twenty three units to the negative. Kansas 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.640 City would be over twenty two units to the negative. 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.720 The Padres would be fourth worst, followed by the White Sox. 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:02.120 The Padres are the one, I mean, goodness, So you 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:05.120 you actually think the question of will this be sustainable? 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.440 You actually think the Padres based on you know, and 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.600 I just mentioned about their pythagora, and you don't think 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.320 this is going to continue. You think they'll actually turn upwards. 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.520 Oh you do see their winning percentage. As it stands 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:20.240 right now, the standard winning percentage on im MLB dot 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.400 com is four seventy five. I think they should be 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.600 at five sixty six win percentage. So they're the unluckiest 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.040 team for me, gil uh in baseball. So yeah, I think, 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:31.080 and you just think about that. You you've got you know, 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:35.040 you've got Snell and Darvish and uh Musgrove, like the 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.840 problem with the Padres and so this is I guess 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:40.400 I'm glad I'm talking about this because so you can say, well, 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:42.480 they're unlucky, they're one run games that sort of thing. 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:46.080 But like if your bullpen's lousy, like you're gonna probably 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:49.440 lose more run one run games than if your bullpen's elaked, right, 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:51.840 And so like I'd like to talk about project. There's 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.080 another project. There's the number two on this on the show, 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.400 like like you know, chart your good bullpens and how 0:09:57.480 --> 0:09:59.679 how that corresponds with one run games and that that's 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:00.760 an int thought. 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.560 Is to me, this is the whole key to the Giants, right, Like, 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:06.360 I mean, that's the it's the bottom up approach, if 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.120 you will. It's you know, again we've said this before 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.679 you think about their three World Series championships. At the 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:15.040 beginning of the last decade, the most consistent thing they 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:18.120 had was the bullpen. I think like nine Giants played 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:19.960 in all three World Series teams, but I think four 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.080 of them were out of the bullpen. So they figured 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.079 that out. The Kansas City Royals, remember and their run 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.160 to two World Series they won one of them. They 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:29.120 were they figured out, we don't have the payroll of 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.400 other teams. Let's go seven, eight, nine, let's get those 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:33.800 innings solidified. And so I think those are the precursors 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:36.240 to this. You watch Giants games, You're like, oh, here 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.560 comes Trunk, Kuilo, Camillo. They're gonna win this, right, So 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.920 I really think there's a lot to that. By the way, again, 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:44.760 brief aside, we're gonna have a lot of asides on this. 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.040 I'm guessing, but I did the thing yesterday on a 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.000 numbers game. I'll do it for the podcast audience too, 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:52.240 which is, you know, where are the best bets to 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.120 make the postseason? Right now, with roughly forty games for 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:57.760 everybody left, obviously, give or take a few games, where 0:10:57.760 --> 0:10:59.400 are the best bets to make the playoffs? Where the 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:03.040 best bets to win division in Baseball. And so my exercise, 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.680 and I'm curious where you come in on this. My 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:10.720 exercise was, i will take the Fangrafts projections, probabilities to 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:12.600 make the postseason and to win a vision, and the 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.640 Baseball Reference ones, and then I'll juxtapose it against the 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.400 actual betting line. And so the five bets that came 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:23.320 up as triggered bets, the bets that show value to 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:27.680 make the postseason. The Mariners at plus one eighty at DraftKings. 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:29.480 This was yesterday. They ought to be if you believe 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:31.640 the Baseball Reference numbers, they ought to be plus one 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.439 twenty three. So that would be a bet per my exercise. 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.680 The Cubs to make the postseason. If you believe the 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:42.080 Baseball Reference percentages, you know the betting line is minus 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.719 one twenty five. It should be north of minus two hundred. 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.559 The Giants, if you believe fangraphs, the yes for them 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.640 to make the postseason at minus one forty five is 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.400 a great bet still despite their tough schedule, that ought 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:56.440 to be north well north of two hundred. And then 0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.640 to win a division. It's the Cubs again, if you 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.080 believe the Baseball Reference projection, it should be about plus 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.280 one twenty two. You're getting plus two ten on them 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.400 yesterday to win the Central, the NL Central, and the Rangers. 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.880 Minus one sixty five actually represents value if you believe 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:14.679 the Baseball Reference projection of seventy two point one percent 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.040 to win the division that ought to be by this 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:20.719 two sixty so three division. Excuse me, three playoffs, two divisions? 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:22.959 Do you agree with those? Do you disagree with any 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.600 of them? And what additional ones do you have? 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:31.160 We'll start with with Rangers. Rangers, by my projections, should 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.079 be winning that division seventy one point seven percent of 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:36.040 the time, so minus two to fifty three would be 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:37.040 a fair price there. 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:37.640 Love it. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:42.480 And then if we talked about the playoffs, as Jim 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.200 Moore would say, you're looking at the Cubs minus one 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.960 twenty five. And I have the Cubs and this is 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.280 they were minus two to seventeen yesterday. Now they should 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.640 be minus one seventy five because they did lose to 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:56.080 the White Sox for whatever reason yesterday. But there's still 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.320 good value there. And then the Giants. I have the 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:03.200 Giants to make the playoffsus two thirty three. One of 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:06.280 the things that the local guy uh the d Backs 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:09.559 are priced right now by my numbers at four to ten, 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:11.640 I think you can get like like four fifty for them, 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.960 So d Backs, as you know. And actually the best 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.400 value from a from a long shot standpoint, by my 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:23.520 numbers was is the Red Sox. I've got him at 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.840 twenty three point two percent three thirty one. You can 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:27.560 get him in the market at least you could yesterday 0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:29.719 at plus six hundred, So that was a good play too. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:31.760 Oh okay, so d Backs and Red Sox you would 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.480 add to the mix there to make the postseason? What 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.559 about real quick? Before we move on, I apologize for 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.719 the asides right off the top. Jason Weingarten came on 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.200 a Numbers game earlier this morning. He just made a 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:46.120 bet the Rays to miss the playoffs at twelve to one. 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:50.080 They're five games clear of being on the outside looking in. 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.079 I got a ninety seven point eight percent chance for 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:55.600 the raise to. 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.320 So twelve to one would not represent value to you 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:02.360 based on your numbers. Okay, okay, let's continue. So again, 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:06.840 those are the uh, those are the you know again? Baltimore, Washington, 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.240 Cincinnati the best money line teams for betters thus far 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.160 this year. The worst Oakland the Mets, Kansas City, and 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:13.960 San Diego. By the way, san Diego not to make 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.880 the playoffs. You didn't bet that, Huh. 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:18.679 San Diego is kind of like right where it needs 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:20.520 to be is like plus four hundred, and they're like 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.040 plus four hundred to make the playoffs. 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:23.640 So okay. By the way, if you were curious about 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.560 the splits about that money line, Texas is the best 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:31.880 home money line team. By the way, overall when we 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.960 talk about money, Texas ended up fourth, as we mentioned, 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.080 but they are the best home money line team if 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.160 we've met them at home nine point four units. That is, 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.160 almost all of their winnings are at home. Quite frankly, 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.480 they're barely a winner away. And when you talk about away, 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.840 we talked a little bit about this yesterday Mark the 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.640 Orioles and the Nationals and the Reds, who are one 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:57.520 two three overall. It's amazing that in the Oriels case, 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.880 almost twenty one of their twenty six units roughly have 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:05.480 been made on the road. For Washington, they're actually a 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.480 home for super Washington is actually a home loser. They're away. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.960 Money line would have you up seventeen point five units 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:14.840 if you just bet that blindly and the same thing 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:18.280 with Cincinnati. They're actually a home loser incrementally, but a 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.400 huge road winner of almost fifteen units of the positive. 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:25.680 Does that surprise you that Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati that almost 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:27.760 all of their money and again, obviously their prices are 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:29.240 going to be better, more bang for your buck on 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.160 the road, but for that difference to be that stark 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:33.080 from home to road. 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.200 We're real definitely. And the Nationals to you because you know, 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:40.640 you think with these analytics departments and they're good, they're 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.160 strong in Washington too, They've got some they got some 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.280 brilliant people over there, but the Orioles do as well. 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.080 And so you're talking about we've talked about this for 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.120 probably the last five or six years about ball lineup 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.880 construction based on ballpark. So you think that, you know, 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.240 these guys, the smartest guys in baseball are going to 0:15:58.280 --> 0:15:59.880 be like, Okay, well we're going to try to tailor 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:04.240 our roster pitching roster, hitting roster to the ballpark. And 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:06.960 so you would think that with the best analytics department, 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.480 they would have better splits at home. So that is 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:10.800 a little bit surprising to me. Gil. 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.040 Yeah, So what did we read into all that that 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.440 Baltimore is probably not quite that sustainable and the Padres 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.360 will actually have an upswing. Is that probably the headlines 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:19.280 from that exercise right there? 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.600 I think those are headlines. I think those are good headlines. 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:23.760 What about run line? This is the de facto power 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.440 rating again. If you're a favorite, you're one and a 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:28.880 half run favorite. If you're a dog, you're a one 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.400 and a half run dog. The Orioles end up as 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:36.360 the number one run line team in baseball. That one 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.920 run record has a lot to do with it, although 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.840 actually that one run record says the opposite doesn't. If 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:44.840 you have a one run record like that where you're 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.800 twenty two and eleven, maybe it wouldn't indicate that you 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:49.920 would be such a great run line team. But they 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:52.080 are in fact the number one run line team in 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:54.440 all of baseball. They would have you up over twenty 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.000 five units, almost exactly the same amount as a money 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:01.760 line team, followed by Texas, followed by Incinnati Texas almost 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:04.040 twenty or a little over twenty one units up. This 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:08.720 per covers Cincinnati almost twenty units up, then followed by 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.680 the Dodgers and the Cubs. But it's the usual suspects 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:15.360 as far as this year Baltimore, Texas, Cincinnati interesting, whereas 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.639 Washington they're still in the positive, but they're they're not 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:20.800 nothing to really write home about on the run. 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.639 Line, and I think maybe you break that down favorite 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.320 dog or something. So maybe the Oils are dogs and 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:29.880 so they're they're they're close, you know, coming coming into 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:31.680 right game. 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.160 So in Texas that makes sense, right, it makes sense, 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:37.680 whereas Texas being second, they probably crush you if they're 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.520 a favorite by more than by more than run one 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:41.480 and half. 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:45.040 Runs Axas, especially at home. You know, the others displayed 0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:47.879 about the Rangers that there day night splits, and I 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.359 think there's something there. I think there's something with with 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:52.280 with the rhythms and stuff. But if you if you 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.720 you can't get day night splits on fangrafts, but you 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.359 can get day night splits on MLB dot Com if 0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:00.560 you go there, they're they're they're up at the So 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.760 I personally think, after having done this for such a 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:05.760 long time, I think there's something with with the day 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.320 night Splitskay. 0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:10.000 Since you bring it up, I got a question. Do 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:12.680 you when I when I say day night splits, starting 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:16.160 pitcher in your entire career doing this does someone leap 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:17.600 to mind. 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:19.840 Because I I don't really use it as much as 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:21.960 I think I should. Gil. I mean, that's that's something 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:23.800 that you you know, you can uncover a lot of 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.520 bases which no pun intended. Actually maybe there was a 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:29.800 pun intended on that. But but when you're when you're 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:31.679 doing this on a daily basis, and when you got 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.920 to crunch fifteen games a day, you know, there's some 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:36.560 things that that admittedly like I leave out and I 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.040 do a lot, so uh, but that's something I think 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:39.720 to think about. 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.080 Yeah, yeah, you know, it's interesting. I you know, what 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.639 if if the picture that comes to mind, and I 0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:48.399 have no numbers to back this up, I just remember 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:50.840 maybe it was one year where he had this amazing split. 0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:54.080 Remember Brian Banister with the Kansas City Royals. 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:57.600 My god, yeah, that's a good poll that. 0:18:57.760 --> 0:19:00.280 Was like great in the day and then not so 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:01.399 great at night. I don't know if it was just 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:02.960 a one year anomaly. By the way, the worst run 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:05.439 line team is no surprise. Kansas City's the worst. They 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:06.920 would have cost you over twenty eight units on the 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.600 run line. If you're betting the Royals every day any 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:12.359 which way, something's wrong. With you. Mets are second worst 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:16.480 on the run line, Phillies third worst, Marlin's fourth worst, 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.679 and Brewer's fifth worst. So three, four and five are 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:21.959 actually potential playoff teams on the run line. 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.040 That's that's super interesting. You know, I don't know, you know, 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.439 I gave out like last week. I think it was 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:30.600 on Thursday. Philly is an eight to one and miss 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:32.720 a playoffs. I thought that was pretty valuable. You think 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:36.280 that bullpen is in question with Alvarado is one of 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.600 these guys and you see this happen. He's not with Judge, 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:40.919 He's put these guys on the on the ile for 0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:45.200 on the IL for I don't know, like you're taking Okay, 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:47.320 we'll be back in ten days, you know, a week, 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:49.119 ten days. Well, this guy's still on the IL. I 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.200 guess he's doing some rehab stuff. But you got to 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:54.400 wonder what that Alvarado his strikeout rates approaching fifty pct. 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:56.600 He's a valuable piece to that bullpen. 0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:59.000 That's a big deal, Judge, you might need to be 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:01.520 on the IL He looks like he's limping around. By 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:03.920 the way, since you bring him up the Yankees. 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:05.960 Well, okay, let's go on another side. Because this happened 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:08.920 at Dodger Stadium the other day. I can't remember. As 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:11.040 a left fielder for the Rockies, same thing happened to me. 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.879 He hit his toe on underneath the padding there on 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.520 the concrete. It's like, okay, guys, let's fix this, guys. 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:19.760 Let's fix that. That's it, yeah, because it turns out 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:23.320 to be a brutal injury in the end. Oftentimes this 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:25.359 is so this one's a little more nebulous. This is 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.600 starting pitchers who have made or cost betters the most 0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:34.080 money if they bet on that pictures that starter's team 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:39.159 every time this starter took the mound. Dean Kramer of 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:44.600 the Baltimore Orioles, it's your number one over thirteen units 0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:47.000 of the positive. You bet the Orioles every time. Dean Kramer, 0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:51.160 the Israeli native Dean Kramer. The Oriols are eighteen and six, 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.040 I believe when he takes the hill. Abbot of the Reds, 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:58.080 Taiwan Walker of the Phillies is third, and then Gomber 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:02.480 of the Rockies is fourth. Somehow, there's nothing to any 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:03.480 of those, are there. 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:08.679 Especially Gomber? Really? Oh my gosh, wow, that's that. That 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:10.040 is the surprise of the day. 0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:12.480 For me, that's a surprise because the Rockies are thirteen 0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:14.879 and eleven when he takes the hill, and they're probably 0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:16.280 huge dogs in most of those. 0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:19.560 Right, that's crazy with that, And this is I wanted 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:21.399 to save this one for the five inning segment, but 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:23.240 they have the worst of the Rockies have the worst 0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:27.680 fiving run de differential in baseball, worse than the A's like, 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.320 so that's that's that's surprising to me that Austin Gombert 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:32.840 he gets him today, by the way. 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:35.480 Yeah, well oh you did bet against Austin Gomber. Okay, Yeah, 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:37.240 that five inning stuff doesn't surprise We'll get to the 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:38.760 five innings in a minute, but that doesn't surprise me 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:42.600 because it's cores, right, So if you lose, maybe you 0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:43.920 tend to lose by more. 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:48.200 Right, Yeah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, that's interesting observation. 0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:51.200 By the way, worst starting pitchers. Again, this is if 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:54.800 you happen to bet on their team every time they 0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:56.879 take the hill. Well, no surprise that Jordan Lyles of 0:21:56.920 --> 0:22:00.080 the of the of the Royals, who I think they 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:03.119 started oh to fifteen with him on the hill this year. Well, 0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:05.040 now that they're now three and twenty He's still the 0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:07.879 biggest hamrhager of cash. He'd have cost you fourteen units. 0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:12.480 Zach Greenky, his teammate, would be second worst. He'd have 0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:16.080 cost you over ten units. And then it's Gildo of 0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:18.320 the Angels. He's been terrible with the Angels by the 0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:21.080 way since the acquisition. He'd have cost you almost ten 0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:23.440 units this year for both of his clubs, the White 0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:26.600 Sox and the Angels. And Jordan Montgomery, who the Rangers 0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:29.800 just acquired, of course before the trade deadline, he would 0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:32.560 have cost you in his days with both Saint Louis 0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:34.480 and Texas, he would have cost you over eight units 0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:38.880 this year. Those are the worst four. So I mean, 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:42.960 I'm not saying Lyles and Granky are horrible pitchers, but 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:44.760 their team is just horrible, right, So I mean it's 0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:46.879 gonna be a couple of Royals pitchers probably the bottom. 0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:49.399 You know that that Royals team that they've played a 0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:52.520 little bit better as of late, but you'd look at 0:22:52.600 --> 0:22:55.000 run differentially. You look a lot of the advanced metrics 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:57.199 that they've been a disappointment. I would say if the 0:22:57.280 --> 0:22:59.320 Royals could be a disappointment, which I think that they 0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:01.960 had better expertations than what they've done this year, so 0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:04.719 they are kind of disappointing even comparing him to their 0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:05.880 own expectations. Guilt. 0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:07.480 Yeah, just some big names, by the way, at the 0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:12.960 bottom of that list, eighth Sandy al Kantara eighth worst. 0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.520 I mean, how far is he fallen? He'd have cost 0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:20.280 just seven units this year anyway, because the Marlins are 0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:22.840 nine and fifteen in his games. Blake Snell of the 0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:25.600 Padres is eighth. Remember excuse me ninth. He was a 0:23:25.600 --> 0:23:30.959 big you know, possibility of a trade deadline acquisition. But 0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:34.000 I said the same thing about him and Otani, like 0:23:34.240 --> 0:23:35.840 as bad as the Angels have been since the All 0:23:35.840 --> 0:23:39.000 Star since the trade deadline, I still believe the Angels 0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:41.240 had no choice. Like I just believe they had to 0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:44.600 keep Otani and hope for the best. I felt that 0:23:44.640 --> 0:23:46.840 way about the Padres in a different way, which is, 0:23:47.320 --> 0:23:49.280 you know, I think if Ardi Moreno got rid of Otani, Like, 0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:50.680 what are you telling your fan base, this is the 0:23:50.680 --> 0:23:52.919 greatest player in baseball. You have to keep him in 0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:55.560 try and with the Padres like they were supposed to 0:23:55.640 --> 0:23:57.880 be great. So I don't think you could have got 0:23:58.000 --> 0:23:59.960 rid of Blake's noew, Well, they're eleven and thirteen and 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.280 Blake Snell outings this year, so that would cost better 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:05.159 six and a half units roughly. And you Darvish is 0:24:05.200 --> 0:24:09.040 eleventh with the Padres eleventh worst in terms of hemorrhaging. 0:24:08.720 --> 0:24:11.760 Money, right, Darvus is surprising because he does play on 0:24:11.800 --> 0:24:13.960 that team, that team, like you know, even by the 0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:16.320 numbers and and I adjusted every day, like they're like 0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:19.840 third in baseball from an offensive like weighted runs created plus, 0:24:19.840 --> 0:24:22.560 which is the standard I guess what people use nowadays, 0:24:22.880 --> 0:24:25.800 and they're they're, uh, they're number three by my rating, 0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:27.560 So you would think that they'd have he would have 0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:30.080 better luck with and he's he's got like a lot 0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:33.360 of really good Sabermetric numbers. So maybe that's the guy 0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:37.200 for me that that'll probably get better than where he's 0:24:37.200 --> 0:24:37.680 at right now. 0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:39.439 Gil, Yeah, let me throw it to you for the umpires, 0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:41.400 because I don't want to my numbers look a little 0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:44.840 yanky here, but you and I isolated an overump yesterday, 0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:49.560 which in terms of what he's doing this year juxtaposed 0:24:49.560 --> 0:24:52.600 against your historical stats actually jibed very well. So you're like, well, 0:24:52.600 --> 0:24:54.680 remember when when a stat Fox or one of these 0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:59.000 sites that puts Umpire assignments on their site. First, if 0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:01.960 you see these particular guys who have a tendency to 0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:05.640 guy to go over under and your bet is going 0:25:05.640 --> 0:25:07.240 to go the other way, maybe it takes you off 0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:09.280 a bet at the very least doesn't necessarily trigger, but 0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:11.359 maybe it takes you off. The guy on the over 0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:16.720 was Edwin Moscoso. Nine of fourteen games this year. He's 0:25:17.080 --> 0:25:19.400 what he's called balls and strikes have gone over and 0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:23.000 he absolutely jibes with your historical numbers to the over. 0:25:23.359 --> 0:25:28.600 He's gil. He's the third highest over umpire by my numbers. 0:25:28.600 --> 0:25:31.680 And so I have like an opinion on this because 0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:34.800 you're like, well, it's only nine percent. You know, from 0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:37.520 a run projection standpoint, I used strikeout percentage and walk 0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:39.720 percentage and you can actually equate that to a run 0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:44.480 expectation quantitatively, and you think, well, it's nine percent, Well 0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:46.080 how much is that? But if you think about it, 0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:49.600 you know, ten percent of a total, that's nine you know, 0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:52.280 that's almost a full run. So it does make a difference. 0:25:52.359 --> 0:25:54.879 And it's certainly something I have in my model from 0:25:54.960 --> 0:25:58.160 a from a total standpoint. It's kind of incorporated into 0:25:58.160 --> 0:26:01.280 the math in the model, but that was the one 0:26:01.320 --> 0:26:03.720 that kind of stood out to me. He's number three, 0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:06.640 he's number one. Would you say number one in baseball 0:26:06.680 --> 0:26:08.600 from an overstandpoint. 0:26:08.160 --> 0:26:11.440 No, he is number two. Well it depends how you 0:26:11.440 --> 0:26:14.760 you know, if by percentage. Well this is listed just 0:26:14.800 --> 0:26:17.119 by the number of over games by percentage, he's not 0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:21.359 number one. Jim Wolf and Hunter Wendelstead are actually nine 0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:23.960 of thirteen to the over. But Edward Moscowsa was nine 0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:27.159 of fourteen to the over, so I mean that's. 0:26:27.040 --> 0:26:29.120 Still there's something there. 0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:32.040 His strike zone is the size of a thimble, you know, 0:26:32.160 --> 0:26:33.800 Like I always say, like you wonder what it is 0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:34.960 with these guys. And by the way, I don't know 0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:37.200 if you see, like to the opposite and this will 0:26:37.200 --> 0:26:39.480 be more in tune with the over with the under guys. 0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:42.159 But like there was a pitch to Justin Turner and 0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:44.040 Boston last night. I don't know if you saw this, 0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:47.719 it's like two inches outside of the strike zone and 0:26:47.760 --> 0:26:50.040 they rang him up, you know, and you're just like, 0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:52.320 what do you do? By the way, and then Gabe 0:26:52.359 --> 0:26:56.480 Kapler for the Giants yesterday, this kid who rose from 0:26:56.600 --> 0:26:58.680 from single A all the way to the big leagues, 0:26:58.720 --> 0:27:01.600 for the Giants this year has been This was his 0:27:01.680 --> 0:27:05.439 second game last night. His name is his name is 0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:09.240 Wade Meckler, and he was like the umpire, Chad Witson 0:27:09.880 --> 0:27:13.000 was calling all of these pitches that were way outside 0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:15.840 of the strike zone strikes on him. So Gabe Kapler 0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:19.280 finally lost his mind. You're killing this kid, like you're 0:27:19.320 --> 0:27:21.960 sucking all the confidence out of him because you're calling 0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:24.560 these pitches way out of the strike zone as strikes. 0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:27.199 He lost his mind. He got tossed. Next two times up, 0:27:27.240 --> 0:27:30.760 Wade Meckler got base hits. I mean, it's really it's 0:27:30.800 --> 0:27:33.439 becoming worse and worse it is. 0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:35.199 And I think I think the other thing too is 0:27:35.280 --> 0:27:38.399 we have better data and the and the presentation of 0:27:38.440 --> 0:27:40.879 where the pitches and the strike zone is really well 0:27:40.920 --> 0:27:44.200 done on the broadcast. So what happens is you see 0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:46.880 a pitch like that and it's they're pivotal. Every game 0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:50.399 has one, Okay, So for for me last night it 0:27:50.480 --> 0:27:53.959 was it was Tommy fam at Batty. They called a 0:27:53.960 --> 0:27:56.520 strike a ball, next pitch got hits a double and 0:27:56.520 --> 0:27:59.520 that was like the key and it worked out for 0:27:59.560 --> 0:28:02.440 me really well. But like, I mean, I think that 0:28:02.440 --> 0:28:05.080 that for what we see. The technology is there to 0:28:05.160 --> 0:28:07.840 be able to and you're a big tennis guy. I've 0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:10.480 seen it done in tennis as kind of a layman 0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:13.280 guy who watches tennis, and it's pretty efficient. It's not 0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:15.800 apprusis to the game. They say, hey, this ball was 0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:18.119 out and you know you called it in or I 0:28:18.119 --> 0:28:21.320 guess vice versa, and it packs all of maybe fifteen 0:28:21.359 --> 0:28:23.240 seconds to say, yeah, that was that was out or in. 0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:25.960 And I think they should institute something like that in 0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:26.800 Major League Baseball. 0:28:26.840 --> 0:28:29.800 Gilt, Yeah, you're so right, first of all, on many accounts. 0:28:29.880 --> 0:28:33.959 One in tennis, it is completely transformed the sport of tennis. 0:28:34.000 --> 0:28:37.040 Right from our childhood, when you know John McEnroe or 0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:39.960 Jimmy Connors would lose it on the lines people or 0:28:40.000 --> 0:28:42.600 on the on the umpire. We don't have that anymore, 0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:46.120 right because the technology is accepted and it's so seamless 0:28:46.720 --> 0:28:49.800 that you just move on. In the minor leagues in baseball, 0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:51.600 Will Hill was talking about that this morning on a 0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:53.959 Numbers game. In the minor leagues, they have a challenge 0:28:54.000 --> 0:28:56.600 system where like the batter taps his helmet or something, 0:28:56.920 --> 0:28:59.840 and it's super seamless. You get like one challenge right 0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:02.400 kind of thing, but like in a high leverage moment 0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:05.680 that could matter. I think that's not going far enough. 0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:07.640 I really don't like it's gotten so bad. And you're 0:29:07.680 --> 0:29:09.240 right about what you said. There is the key from 0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:12.120 a betting standpoint. You happen to have won that bet, 0:29:12.160 --> 0:29:15.640 But we've all been on bets where we legitimately can 0:29:15.680 --> 0:29:18.880 make a case we lost a bet because that batter 0:29:19.000 --> 0:29:21.560 got to stay in the box longer than he should 0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:24.000 have been, and then of course right he hits the 0:29:24.000 --> 0:29:26.400 bases clearing double right after that when it should have 0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:29.000 been strike three. And it is super frustrating. But you know, 0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:32.120 betting is hard enough, so to lose that way really 0:29:32.200 --> 0:29:33.040 pisses you off. 0:29:33.760 --> 0:29:35.880 Absolutely, it's a big deal, and I think they should 0:29:35.880 --> 0:29:38.640 look at it. They're taking sponsorship money from betting companies 0:29:38.680 --> 0:29:41.400 and fantasy companies, and I think they really should. 0:29:41.200 --> 0:29:41.600 Look at it. 0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:43.240 And I don't know, I don't I don't know if 0:29:43.240 --> 0:29:45.840 the fan has any voice. But if we do, let's, uh, 0:29:46.000 --> 0:29:47.720 I don't know, not play totals for a day or 0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:48.760 something and see how. 0:29:50.600 --> 0:29:53.720 We're going on boycott of totals. Would you remember? 0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:55.480 Funny, it's like if like if you start the Voice 0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:57.720 of Sports betting starts this movement, it's like, let's not 0:29:57.760 --> 0:29:59.640 bet totals for one day, like like Sam it has 0:29:59.640 --> 0:30:00.840 an impat That'd be funny. 0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:04.680 People would be like, fuck you, Gil, we're betting our totals, dammit. 0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:09.200 Not be any total then, like I got about this total. 0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:09.880 I got about this total. 0:30:09.960 --> 0:30:12.040 That's right. I love you, man, but I gotta bet 0:30:12.040 --> 0:30:16.400 this thing. The most reliable under umpires and baseball this year. 0:30:16.400 --> 0:30:18.520 I don't remember who we landed on that jibed with 0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:21.680 you historically yesterday, but I can tell you Doug Eddings 0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:25.600 nine of ten to the under this year, Brian Knight, 0:30:25.720 --> 0:30:31.000 There'sboddy eight of nine to the under, Nate Tomlinson. No, 0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:34.280 that's not right. These are all jacked up. Jeremy Riggs 0:30:34.320 --> 0:30:35.920 ten of twelve to the under. 0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:40.200 Who we mentioned on the show, Jim Wolf was in 0:30:40.240 --> 0:30:42.640 the top Yes, yes, he's in the top ten of 0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:46.760 my under umpires, he's number eight. And then Doug Eddings 0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:49.959 is in the top twelve. I guess he's number twelve. Okay, 0:30:50.080 --> 0:30:53.200 so yeah, there's there's something to that. And gosh, I 0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:55.680 guess I guess Brian Knight has is at one so 0:30:55.720 --> 0:30:56.800 he doesn't even need to start there. 0:30:56.840 --> 0:31:02.200 He is once again, that song is mathematically impossible. Four 0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:05.200 what is it? Well, I wanted It's like a gen 0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:07.800 come true. Two, I want to be with you. Three Girl, 0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.000 it's playing to see you're the only one for me. 0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:12.720 Four repeat steps one, two, three, you can never get 0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:14.200 to five to fall in love with me, you can 0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:14.840 never get to it. 0:31:15.480 --> 0:31:17.680 That's never gonna fall in love. I guess that's sad. 0:31:17.880 --> 0:31:20.400 Brian Knight under umpire? So again, what were the under 0:31:20.440 --> 0:31:23.080 the reliably historically under umpires. Who are they? 0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:26.320 Well, Jim Wolf Dougettings And I want to I want 0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:28.960 to say this because I don't know. Like Bill Miller 0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:31.000 is number one by my ratings. He's the number one 0:31:31.000 --> 0:31:33.400 one of my ratings forever. So the guy's not so 0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:35.920 like he's an under umpire. You know, you gotta definitely 0:31:35.960 --> 0:31:37.080 make adjustments with that guy. 0:31:37.200 --> 0:31:39.920 Yeah, So again, keep that in mind. Maybe they have 0:31:40.000 --> 0:31:43.840 a huge wide strike zones. It's not necessarily does this mean, Oh, 0:31:43.880 --> 0:31:46.920 if these guys are umpires, I should absolutely automatically play 0:31:46.920 --> 0:31:49.040 the under. Oh if Edward Moscoso is the umpire, I 0:31:49.040 --> 0:31:53.600 should automatically play the over. No, should it though perhaps 0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:57.040 give you pause if you're going the other way in 0:31:57.120 --> 0:31:58.600 a game, like if you have an under in an 0:31:58.720 --> 0:32:02.040 Edwin Moscoso game, maybe you should think twice and again. 0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:05.320 These these umpire listings, I always say, stat Fox is 0:32:05.320 --> 0:32:07.360 there another place? I think there's a Twitter account too 0:32:07.400 --> 0:32:08.400 that has these, right. 0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.440 Yeah, there's there's umpire Crew, there's umpire Report. There's a 0:32:12.480 --> 0:32:15.840 couple of good umpire umpire sizes right now. Okay, and 0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:17.960 those are two of them. And then but stat fox 0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:20.360 is how long is staff fi? I think stat fox 0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:23.640 pregates us. I think it's stuff still working, so it's 0:32:23.640 --> 0:32:24.080 pretty cool. 0:32:24.120 --> 0:32:26.280 Some people still love it. Yeah, some people still go there. 0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:28.920 Good for them. Okay, let's go to Those were all 0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:32.000 from covers dot com and marks obviously his proprietary numbers 0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:36.520 to corroborate or to go elsewhere with those numbers, this 0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:39.320 comes to us first five inning numbers now for betting, 0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:43.480 which get big big shout out to odds Shark, who 0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:47.200 keeps who compiles this for everybody. I used to do 0:32:47.240 --> 0:32:49.640 them manually. Remember there was a time where like you 0:32:49.720 --> 0:32:53.520 could not find these numbers anywhere, So shout out to 0:32:53.520 --> 0:32:57.040 odds Sharks. Odd Shark pardon me at oddshark dot com. 0:32:58.480 --> 0:33:02.600 The Texas Rangers, as you pointed out earlier, the number 0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:05.520 one first five team in all of baseball. You said, 0:33:05.520 --> 0:33:07.920 based on run differential. Well, they're the number one money 0:33:08.280 --> 0:33:12.600 earners for first five betters. They're seventy thirty seven and twelve. 0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:16.000 Remember you can push in first fives. You'd be up 0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:19.200 over fifteen units if you bet the Rangers every first 0:33:19.280 --> 0:33:21.360 five this year on the money line. And we were 0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:24.760 discussing this little yesterday. Are hunches. It's just they just 0:33:24.840 --> 0:33:28.120 out hit people right, in addition to being solid pitching. 0:33:29.200 --> 0:33:34.120 SIS four hundred and fifteen runs offensively, two sixty nine allowed. 0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:37.200 So the only team that has more runs, and I 0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:39.120 don't know how many games each team has played, are 0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:41.320 the Braves. The Braves have more runs in first five. 0:33:41.400 --> 0:33:43.440 And the Braves would be the number two money earners 0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:45.880 for first five you'd be sixty nine, thirty four and fifteen. 0:33:45.920 --> 0:33:48.760 You'd be up almost ten units with them. So it's 0:33:48.800 --> 0:33:51.800 really the Rangers by a long margin, by over five units. 0:33:52.080 --> 0:33:55.040 Then it's the Braves, and then it's the Reds. Like 0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.920 the Reds again, followed by the Orioles and the Guardians, 0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:00.200 but once you get past the Orioles, you drop off 0:34:00.240 --> 0:34:03.320 a cliff. So here's the thing. Let's put it this way. 0:34:03.480 --> 0:34:07.360 You know how many teams are profitable first five money 0:34:07.400 --> 0:34:09.319 line this year if you bet them every single game 0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:15.319 five Rangers, Braves, reds Orioles, Guardians, and the Guardians less 0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:19.360 than one hundred bucks, less than one unit in other words, And. 0:34:19.400 --> 0:34:21.399 I think maybe that touches on on a point where 0:34:21.400 --> 0:34:24.040 these first fives, because I love playing the first fives, 0:34:24.040 --> 0:34:26.360 I think you can isolate a starter a lot better. 0:34:26.520 --> 0:34:28.440 You can, you can go a little bit more specific 0:34:28.480 --> 0:34:30.000 with the stats, but you got to keep in mind 0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:32.719 at least now maybe the market I'll get more competitive 0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:34.919 down the line, but you're going to pay a higher price. 0:34:35.200 --> 0:34:38.200 As a rule, the straddle is bigger. The straddle is bigger, 0:34:38.400 --> 0:34:41.440 that's right. You won't find the dime lines here, so 0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:45.880 that matters. And that's amazing. So legitimately there's only five 0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:50.560 out of thirty teams positive and the five that are 0:34:50.600 --> 0:34:52.799 again throw the Guardians outcause is less than one unit. 0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:56.960 The four that are are hugely profitable. So it's like 0:34:57.120 --> 0:35:00.120 those are the four anomalies. Rangers, Braves, Reds, Orioles, the 0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:02.360 way about the Braves. We were talking about this, not 0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:04.440 with you this morning, but with other with other folks, 0:35:05.800 --> 0:35:07.800 and we always say this about the baseball postseason. I 0:35:07.880 --> 0:35:10.840 made all those Braves bets in plus money down the 0:35:10.840 --> 0:35:14.120 stretch last year, seventeen different bets in plus money I 0:35:14.160 --> 0:35:16.840 made on the on the Braves to overcome the Mets 0:35:16.840 --> 0:35:18.880 and win the NL East, because I just thought it 0:35:18.920 --> 0:35:21.960 was mispriced and it came through. And one of the 0:35:21.960 --> 0:35:23.799 big things I said is and now the Mets are 0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:26.200 going to peter out completely because the problem in baseball 0:35:26.280 --> 0:35:28.120 is you play one hundred and sixty two games. If 0:35:28.160 --> 0:35:31.000 you don't win your division, Mann does it suck because 0:35:31.000 --> 0:35:32.680 then you got to play a best of three, so 0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:37.279 it is hugely punitive. And I, you know, we are 0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:39.680 the other stat We always throw out stats by Lopez 0:35:39.680 --> 0:35:42.680 who says, you know, in basketball, best of seven, like 0:35:42.760 --> 0:35:45.600 eighty percent of the favorites get through because there's huge 0:35:45.640 --> 0:35:49.239 top heavy in the NBA first round typically, although not 0:35:49.239 --> 0:35:52.080 so much in the Western Conference these days, but historically 0:35:52.560 --> 0:35:55.359 to get the same percentage of favorites through and hock 0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:58.279 in hockey, you'd have to play a best of fifty one. 0:35:58.520 --> 0:36:02.800 That's how random hockey it in baseball per stats by Lopez. 0:36:02.840 --> 0:36:04.120 You know what, you'd have to play a best of 0:36:04.200 --> 0:36:06.200 to get that percentage of favorites through a best of 0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:11.640 seventy five. So think about that, like it's so random, 0:36:12.520 --> 0:36:15.040 And yet I want to ask you about the Braves. 0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:18.640 Are the Braves so good this year that you don't 0:36:18.680 --> 0:36:20.279 care about any of that? You'd bet them to win 0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:22.799 the whole thing? Because man on a nightly basis, Mark, 0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:24.480 I watched them, and I'm like, they're playing a different 0:36:24.520 --> 0:36:26.000 sport than everybody else. 0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:29.960 It taught the bottom lineup wise. I mean, I don't 0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:32.120 think there's a weakness in there. You look at their 0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:36.239 bullpen by my numbers, they're rated number one. You know. 0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:39.319 The one thing and I love Strider. He's probably my 0:36:39.320 --> 0:36:41.839 favorite pitcher in baseball. But he could be had every 0:36:41.880 --> 0:36:44.160 now and then and maybe a team like the Dodgers 0:36:45.200 --> 0:36:47.040 can have him. And do you think about do you 0:36:47.080 --> 0:36:49.080 think about the Phillies. There's one thing I know about 0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:50.719 the Phillies just kind of off the top of my head. 0:36:50.800 --> 0:36:54.400 Versus power pitchers, they're top three in baseball, like, so 0:36:54.719 --> 0:36:56.560 that makes sense that they were able to get to 0:36:56.640 --> 0:36:59.640 Strider last year. But yeah, I think when you get 0:36:59.640 --> 0:37:02.480 into that, you're talking about the randomness of the postseason. 0:37:03.280 --> 0:37:06.040 I think as good as they are, as dominant as 0:37:06.040 --> 0:37:08.799 they are, maybe it's his best to bet against him, 0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:11.640 because you know what, pretty much the same team last 0:37:11.680 --> 0:37:15.600 year in the baseball they got jumped by the Phillies. 0:37:15.640 --> 0:37:17.319 I think this Dodger team is really good. I mean, 0:37:17.440 --> 0:37:20.080 what have they won like twelve straight? I mean they're. 0:37:19.760 --> 0:37:22.560 Thirteen thirteen and one in August, I think, and they've 0:37:22.560 --> 0:37:24.720 won nine straight. I want to say something like that. 0:37:24.760 --> 0:37:26.160 It's like they're never going to lose again. 0:37:26.239 --> 0:37:29.319 Yeah, that Bobby Miller, I could hardly wait. I hope 0:37:29.360 --> 0:37:31.319 he continues to be as good as he's been because 0:37:31.360 --> 0:37:33.520 I love saying Bobby ball game. It's one of my 0:37:33.560 --> 0:37:36.200 favorite phrases. So I hope he think I can continue. 0:37:36.440 --> 0:37:40.880 Worst first five teams in baseball No Surprise Royals followed 0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:43.120 by the A's Royals would have cost you over twenty 0:37:43.239 --> 0:37:46.600 units if you bet them blindly. First five money line 0:37:46.600 --> 0:37:49.359 this year. If you're doing that, you're doing something wrong. Athletics. Second, 0:37:49.360 --> 0:37:51.759 they've cost you sixteen and a half units roughly. This 0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:55.759 Barad's Shark Phillies would be the third worst mark fifteen 0:37:55.880 --> 0:37:59.520 plus units in the red and then the Red Sox 0:37:59.840 --> 0:38:02.240 and Mets rounding out the top five. Do the Philly 0:38:02.280 --> 0:38:03.040 surprise you there? 0:38:03.640 --> 0:38:06.840 Absolutely it does, because if you look at run differential, 0:38:06.880 --> 0:38:10.120 you've got bottom three teams Colorado minus one, forty eight 0:38:10.719 --> 0:38:14.719 oh minus one, forty five Royals minus one oh two, 0:38:14.920 --> 0:38:17.839 and then but the Phillies are actually positive. They're ten 0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:21.239 runs ahead first five. So it might be having something 0:38:21.280 --> 0:38:22.080 to do with pricing. 0:38:22.280 --> 0:38:24.319 It's all about pricing, so think about that. So you 0:38:24.320 --> 0:38:27.000 said the Rockies have the worst run differential right first 0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:29.440 five for five yeap, And I mentioned that there are 0:38:29.440 --> 0:38:32.440 only five teams that are positive in first fives. On 0:38:32.480 --> 0:38:37.720 the money line, the Cubs are sixth, literally eighteen bucks 0:38:37.719 --> 0:38:43.480 in the negative, and the Rockies are seventh, only ninety 0:38:43.560 --> 0:38:47.279 six dollars in the negative. That's despite having a forty two, 0:38:48.040 --> 0:38:53.000 sixty three and fourteen record so bad in the first five. 0:38:53.080 --> 0:38:56.279 But because those forty two probably have massive plus money 0:38:56.320 --> 0:38:58.920 attached to it, that's why they're six. They wouldn't have 0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:01.480 cost you barely anything exactly. 0:39:01.520 --> 0:39:04.120 And you got to think there's so there's also like 0:39:04.440 --> 0:39:06.560 there's a game in Colorado where I think the Angel 0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:11.440 scored twenty one runs in the first maybe twenty three runs. 0:39:11.040 --> 0:39:13.200 So that's a big that's a big chunk of that 0:39:13.280 --> 0:39:13.600 right there. 0:39:13.600 --> 0:39:15.959 It sure is all right. By the way, I didn't 0:39:16.120 --> 0:39:17.799 we didn't do this before. But you know, the most 0:39:17.880 --> 0:39:21.920 profitable first five pitcher is Austin Gomber of the Rockies. 0:39:22.239 --> 0:39:24.120 Oh, don't tell me this, don't tell me this. I'm 0:39:24.120 --> 0:39:27.040 playing against it today. Oh he's boud for regression regret. 0:39:27.400 --> 0:39:29.719 It should actually that's a regression candidate because there's all 0:39:29.760 --> 0:39:30.720 his numbers are terrible. 0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:34.520 This is so funny, goes Gomber, Eovaldi, Kramer, the aforementioned 0:39:34.560 --> 0:39:37.040 Dean Kramer, and then Justin Steele. That was surprise was 0:39:37.040 --> 0:39:40.919 Steel or Eovaldi, but Gomber, Eovaldi, Kramer, and Steele, all 0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:45.040 of whom would have you up over seven units in 0:39:45.080 --> 0:39:48.240 the case of Gomber and Evaldi, almost nine units the positive. 0:39:48.360 --> 0:39:48.920 So there you go. 0:39:49.000 --> 0:39:51.920 There's always one guy. And look, I remember when we 0:39:52.000 --> 0:39:54.000 used to do the Sabermetrics All Stars, and I love 0:39:54.040 --> 0:39:56.640 that so much because it's so great. I remember you 0:39:56.680 --> 0:39:58.799 did Derek Lowe and this is when they would they 0:39:58.800 --> 0:40:01.360 would hold onto these guys. You just bet him every 0:40:01.400 --> 0:40:03.759 time coming out and it was just so profitable. It 0:40:03.800 --> 0:40:05.840 was like easy winners too, Like the guy gets shelled 0:40:05.880 --> 0:40:07.960 every time, they keep throwing him out. And that was 0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:09.760 what I didn't remember. That was under your savorite metrics 0:40:09.800 --> 0:40:12.000 all stars to reglass one here. That's cool. 0:40:12.160 --> 0:40:14.480 So first five inning red the Rockies are thirteen to 0:40:14.640 --> 0:40:17.000 nine and two when Austin Gomber takes the hill and 0:40:17.040 --> 0:40:20.040 that's enough with plus money to have you making tons 0:40:20.040 --> 0:40:23.920 of dough. So you're fading him today. You're fat Rockies. Yeah, 0:40:24.040 --> 0:40:25.800 full game, right though, full game. 0:40:26.320 --> 0:40:28.879 You're going full game on that. Yeah, they're bullpen's trash too, 0:40:29.000 --> 0:40:29.640 So that's good. 0:40:29.760 --> 0:40:32.000 By the way, worst first five pitcher in baseball money 0:40:32.040 --> 0:40:35.360 wise is Zach Grinky four thirteen and five. The Royals 0:40:35.360 --> 0:40:37.320 are in his first five starts. 0:40:37.920 --> 0:40:40.319 Got I'm so depressed about that because, like from a 0:40:40.360 --> 0:40:43.080 from a metrics standpoint, he's it's always a play against him, 0:40:43.120 --> 0:40:44.759 and I've just played against him in the past, and 0:40:44.800 --> 0:40:46.920 the guy's like a wizard. He's like whatey. He's guys 0:40:47.280 --> 0:40:49.640 like you'd be like, oh, the metrics say jump on him, 0:40:49.640 --> 0:40:52.279 and then then he'd like throws he ah man, he 0:40:52.320 --> 0:40:55.399 gets three strikeouts and you know walks three guys and 0:40:55.400 --> 0:40:58.080 that doesn't allow it runs. So yeah, he's frustrating on so. 0:40:58.200 --> 0:41:01.160 Super super frustrating. All right, well, we did this yesterday. 0:41:01.160 --> 0:41:03.160 This is the last one. This is the most proprietary 0:41:03.200 --> 0:41:04.719 of all. It's the first inning numbers because a lot 0:41:04.719 --> 0:41:08.839 of people like to bet first innings. We talked about 0:41:08.880 --> 0:41:10.600 this yesterday. We already talked about the top which is 0:41:10.960 --> 0:41:12.719 I wish we had done this on the podcast side 0:41:12.800 --> 0:41:15.560 the very morning of when Louis Severino was taking on 0:41:15.600 --> 0:41:20.160 the brace. Severarno now up to date after last night's performance, 0:41:20.800 --> 0:41:24.279 the worst first inning pitcher in all of baseball. He's 0:41:24.320 --> 0:41:27.920 gone from five oh four to now a five nineteen. 0:41:28.719 --> 0:41:34.000 Opponent's batting average, oh my god against him. Excuse me, 0:41:34.080 --> 0:41:37.439 on base percentage, pardon me not batting average or maybe no, yeah, 0:41:38.200 --> 0:41:40.680 batting average against his four thirty three. The on base 0:41:40.719 --> 0:41:45.040 against is five nineteen, five nineteen, So again, more than 0:41:45.120 --> 0:41:48.759 one in two batters reach base against several Reno in 0:41:48.800 --> 0:41:51.359 the first Ozuna with a three run shot against him 0:41:51.440 --> 0:41:54.560 last night. No surprise that Adam Wainwright is number two 0:41:54.640 --> 0:41:58.120 at four sixty two on base against and Jack Flaherty 0:41:58.960 --> 0:42:02.080 the Orioles, Jack flair Now four forty six against in 0:42:02.120 --> 0:42:06.399 the first inning. Do you do any first inning betting? Nope, 0:42:06.440 --> 0:42:06.799 we lost. 0:42:07.040 --> 0:42:11.200 I haven't done much, Gil and I want to, but 0:42:11.239 --> 0:42:13.160 I think it needs to be modeled like separately. So 0:42:13.320 --> 0:42:15.600 like that, there's another project, third project. We got on 0:42:15.640 --> 0:42:16.600 the show, our third project. 0:42:16.640 --> 0:42:19.759 And by the way, I have bet. You know, it's 0:42:19.760 --> 0:42:22.000 been a sort of a cottage industry on a numbers game, 0:42:23.280 --> 0:42:28.920 betting first inning yes runs being scored. You see this 0:42:29.040 --> 0:42:31.879 sort of a cottage industry has developed about people promoting, oh, 0:42:31.880 --> 0:42:33.759 you got to bet the no it's not really the 0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:35.160 way to do it. Your instinct ought to be to 0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:39.080 bet the yes runs. And it really isn't quite based 0:42:39.160 --> 0:42:41.840 on this kind of stuff. But it is fascinating to 0:42:41.840 --> 0:42:45.640 look at Severino, Wainwright, Flairty with Severn Reno just being 0:42:45.840 --> 0:42:48.279 I don't remember we've done this for years. I'm not 0:42:48.320 --> 0:42:51.879 sure I remember a five nineteen against in a first inning. 0:42:51.920 --> 0:42:54.880 That is just horrific. The best in the first inning. 0:42:54.880 --> 0:43:00.200 These won't be surprising. Franbervaldez one ninety against, Hey, sus 0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:03.719 Losarto one ninety three against, on base Sonny Gray two 0:43:03.840 --> 0:43:08.480 hundred on base percentage against followed by Zach Wheeler, Zach Gafflin, 0:43:08.560 --> 0:43:14.879 Tony Gonsolin, Aaron Nola, and Luis Castillo. No surprises there, 0:43:15.200 --> 0:43:16.839 So what's what's what's the biggest. 0:43:16.680 --> 0:43:21.520 Staro's up there? Like Lozardo is an interesting guy, you know, Gosh, 0:43:21.600 --> 0:43:24.279 I bet him a bunch of times, and I would 0:43:24.360 --> 0:43:27.000 say mixed results would be would be best on the 0:43:27.080 --> 0:43:29.239 on this guy, it's so like, it's interesting that he's 0:43:29.320 --> 0:43:29.640 up there. 0:43:29.920 --> 0:43:32.799 What's the single biggest headline in all of this? Was 0:43:32.840 --> 0:43:34.960 it that? Was it a first five thing? 0:43:37.000 --> 0:43:39.120 Yeah? I think so. I think I think so, Gil 0:43:39.320 --> 0:43:40.759 I would I would say that I would be with 0:43:40.800 --> 0:43:41.200 you on that. 0:43:41.440 --> 0:43:44.719 Only four teams in the positive on first five. That's 0:43:44.840 --> 0:43:47.719 that's remarkable, well five if you include. 0:43:47.400 --> 0:43:49.880 The okay, So I I just want to like, let 0:43:49.880 --> 0:43:51.480 me just kind of break this down a little bit. 0:43:51.560 --> 0:43:54.719 For for me personally, I love making the first five bet. 0:43:54.760 --> 0:43:57.799 I really do, because you get a result quick, you 0:43:57.840 --> 0:44:01.120 can really isolate on starting pitching and other things as 0:44:01.160 --> 0:44:05.399 well from a stat standpoint. But like you know, even 0:44:05.440 --> 0:44:07.160 with that in the back of my mind, I still 0:44:07.160 --> 0:44:07.640 make the bet. 0:44:07.760 --> 0:44:08.799 So it still make a bet. 0:44:09.200 --> 0:44:11.919 I still make bad and I think this is one 0:44:12.000 --> 0:44:14.920 cool thing about like where sports betting is kind of evolve, 0:44:15.440 --> 0:44:17.839 and yeah, yeah, the market's tougher. I mean, everybody's got 0:44:17.880 --> 0:44:19.719 access to the same stuff now, and there's there's a 0:44:19.719 --> 0:44:21.320 lot of gooder you get. Your network puts out a 0:44:21.320 --> 0:44:23.640 lot of good information and people listen, and people are 0:44:23.680 --> 0:44:26.400 starting to become better handicappers. So that makes it more 0:44:26.440 --> 0:44:30.440 difficult to handicap. But the markets should get more competitive 0:44:30.840 --> 0:44:34.200 as things go on. So I'm excited to see, like 0:44:34.280 --> 0:44:36.160 first five inning markets, maybe we can get a little 0:44:36.160 --> 0:44:38.960 bit better juice one in a couple of years ago. 0:44:39.320 --> 0:44:41.439 What does that tell us? Though, I'm curious because we've 0:44:41.440 --> 0:44:43.920 done this for many years. I don't ever remember at 0:44:43.920 --> 0:44:46.439 the quarter pole right in our Q three derivatives poll 0:44:47.080 --> 0:44:49.880 that literally only five teams are profitable first five and 0:44:49.880 --> 0:44:52.120 again the Guardian's less than a unit profitable. So it's 0:44:52.200 --> 0:44:56.799 really four teams, four out of thirty Rangers, Braves, Reds, 0:44:56.840 --> 0:45:00.320 and Orioles. What does that say? What? What is the 0:45:01.000 --> 0:45:08.880 message in that that starting pitching is basically meh? League wide? Right? Like, 0:45:08.960 --> 0:45:10.640 of course every team is going to have its ace, 0:45:10.880 --> 0:45:15.040 but it's really not deep, deep enough to sustain good 0:45:15.080 --> 0:45:19.280 five inning performance or that the offense of those teams 0:45:19.360 --> 0:45:23.840 I'm talking Rangers, Braves, and Orioles specifically, is so good 0:45:24.400 --> 0:45:28.279 and so stacked that their leaps and bounds better than 0:45:28.280 --> 0:45:31.880 any other offense. And because of that, and because you're 0:45:31.920 --> 0:45:35.640 starting at the top of the lineup, obviously you're getting 0:45:35.680 --> 0:45:37.600 the most bang for your buck in that short amount 0:45:37.640 --> 0:45:39.720 of time, right, So you're gonna get you know, max 0:45:40.080 --> 0:45:43.480 top of worder there in the shorter time spell timeframe 0:45:43.719 --> 0:45:45.880 of five innings. Is that I mean, is that the 0:45:45.920 --> 0:45:49.040 message that the offense is just so condensed in those 0:45:49.080 --> 0:45:49.920 three teams. 0:45:50.400 --> 0:45:52.400 Oh, you made some good points, and I think that 0:45:52.680 --> 0:45:55.000 like something that for me I think about all the 0:45:55.040 --> 0:45:58.640 time is how these teams prep for the starting pitchers 0:45:58.680 --> 0:46:01.600 and and you mentioned that the teams, you know, maybe 0:46:01.600 --> 0:46:05.640 there's just really good preparation and they're they know how 0:46:05.640 --> 0:46:07.920 to get to the guy early. And so I think 0:46:08.120 --> 0:46:10.160 for me, like what would be fascinating to see is 0:46:10.200 --> 0:46:13.160 like how other teams perform against teams like the Rays, 0:46:13.360 --> 0:46:15.520 teams like the Giants who kind of mix things up 0:46:15.520 --> 0:46:18.319 and you see, like with the with the starters nowadays, 0:46:18.320 --> 0:46:20.120 like Okay, well we're gonna bulk this guy. But then 0:46:20.120 --> 0:46:21.879 they end up not bulking him and stuff, so they're 0:46:21.880 --> 0:46:23.840 they're there, And I think I thought they should do 0:46:23.840 --> 0:46:26.759 this for years, keeping teams on their toes about as 0:46:26.800 --> 0:46:30.080 far as preparation because with the technology right now, you know, 0:46:30.080 --> 0:46:32.719 they have the virtual reality thing that you can simulate 0:46:32.760 --> 0:46:34.960 a pitcher and so like, who's to say that these 0:46:35.000 --> 0:46:36.800 guys aren't stimulating the picture. But if they don't know 0:46:36.800 --> 0:46:38.520 who the picture is, who they gonna simulate gil. So 0:46:38.600 --> 0:46:40.799 I think there's there's a lot of interesting stuff from 0:46:40.800 --> 0:46:42.880 a analytics standpoint, there it is. 0:46:42.960 --> 0:46:45.840 And also you bring up the Giants. So the Giants 0:46:45.880 --> 0:46:49.160 come up first five, they're thirteenth, right, so they're middling. 0:46:49.440 --> 0:46:52.000 So they would have cost you four unit's all year. 0:46:52.080 --> 0:46:54.000 Like if you bet them first five every single game 0:46:54.040 --> 0:46:56.760 this year, you'd be down for units. So again, nothing special, 0:46:57.360 --> 0:46:59.439 but I mean keep in mind what we're talking about. 0:46:59.440 --> 0:47:01.360 The Royal would cost you twenty, The A's would have 0:47:01.360 --> 0:47:03.520 cost you sixteen and a half. The Phillies would have 0:47:03.560 --> 0:47:05.480 cost you fifteen, The Red Sox would have cost you 0:47:05.520 --> 0:47:07.480 almost fifteen, The Mets would have cost you thirteen and 0:47:07.520 --> 0:47:10.200 a half. On and on, right, playoff teams, potential playoff 0:47:10.200 --> 0:47:13.120 teams like the Twins and the Brewers and the Mariners 0:47:13.160 --> 0:47:16.759 ten and above Padres right there too, Diamondbacks almost ten 0:47:16.840 --> 0:47:19.360 units or at least over nine. So if you're the 0:47:19.440 --> 0:47:23.879 Giants and you're always rolling out like every so every 0:47:23.920 --> 0:47:26.799 so many games, it's just a bullpen day, right, they're 0:47:26.840 --> 0:47:29.680 just mixing and matching, like Ryan Walker. Here, you start, 0:47:29.680 --> 0:47:31.440 you'll pitch two innings, we'll go to our next picture. 0:47:31.719 --> 0:47:34.960 What it also tells me is the that that approach 0:47:36.440 --> 0:47:39.799 ain't that bad and that more teams ought to be 0:47:40.000 --> 0:47:40.799 considering it. 0:47:42.520 --> 0:47:44.759 Yes, you know when you see this happening too, and 0:47:44.800 --> 0:47:47.200 it makes it from a headcappy standpoint, it's a nightmare. 0:47:47.239 --> 0:47:50.520 It's a night yeah, it is, because so for years, 0:47:50.520 --> 0:47:52.840 you know, we bought, we've we've boxed the starter or 0:47:52.880 --> 0:47:56.080 listed the starter right, and so now I'm just I'll 0:47:56.080 --> 0:47:58.200 just get into kind of my life. If I see 0:47:58.200 --> 0:48:00.440 somebody that's going to bolt for the Giants, I've got 0:48:00.480 --> 0:48:03.680 to like, I got to I'll handicap that. But in parentheses, 0:48:03.719 --> 0:48:06.520 I got to put bulk right. And so like it's it, 0:48:06.880 --> 0:48:09.319 it becomes challenging. And then the other thing is too, 0:48:09.400 --> 0:48:11.000 this is interesting, Gil. I just want to touch on 0:48:11.040 --> 0:48:13.000 this because it's it's been a challenge for me. You 0:48:13.000 --> 0:48:15.359 look at a guy like Paveta, right, so he he's 0:48:15.400 --> 0:48:17.960 been getting like like openers, and so you look at 0:48:18.080 --> 0:48:21.640 us like stats as a starter, like, okay, you can 0:48:21.760 --> 0:48:23.880 use those, and there's there's there's some relevance there, but 0:48:23.920 --> 0:48:26.480 there's also relevance to when he comes in as a 0:48:26.480 --> 0:48:29.359 bulk guy. So you now, if you if all your 0:48:29.360 --> 0:48:30.959 systems are like, well, how does he do as a starter? 0:48:31.040 --> 0:48:32.399 You got to be like, okay, I got to change 0:48:32.440 --> 0:48:34.359 this because I'm going to put the bulk stuff in too. 0:48:34.400 --> 0:48:37.360 So from a technical standpoint, from a handicapping standpoint, it 0:48:37.480 --> 0:48:40.759 it presents another hurdle to go over. 0:48:40.880 --> 0:48:42.799 I guess mar G I love it. I always think 0:48:42.840 --> 0:48:44.839 about the old well first of all, Deon Sanders when 0:48:44.880 --> 0:48:47.360 he played football in baseball he used to say he 0:48:47.440 --> 0:48:50.160 used to riffing off the old anti drug commercial in 0:48:50.200 --> 0:48:51.879 the eighties where it was like, oh, here's my brain, 0:48:51.920 --> 0:48:54.279 here's my brain on crack. And Deon Sanders, I brought 0:48:54.280 --> 0:48:57.239 this up many times, used to say, you know, football 0:48:57.360 --> 0:48:59.600 was baseball was his brain and football was his brain 0:48:59.640 --> 0:49:01.200 on crack. And when we get to do the megapods, 0:49:01.360 --> 0:49:03.440 it's football season. We all love football. It's going to 0:49:03.480 --> 0:49:06.000 be you know, we're going to be on hamsters on 0:49:06.040 --> 0:49:08.160 a wheel week after week doing football. It's the greatest 0:49:08.160 --> 0:49:10.440 thing in the world. But I so appreciate doing these 0:49:10.520 --> 0:49:12.759 pods with you because this really is my brain as 0:49:12.800 --> 0:49:15.360 opposed to my brain on crack, and I love nerding 0:49:15.360 --> 0:49:18.279 out on these things. And baseball handicapping still to me 0:49:18.960 --> 0:49:20.719 is some of the most fascinating stuff in the world 0:49:20.760 --> 0:49:23.759 because it really is problem solving, right. It's trying to 0:49:23.840 --> 0:49:29.440 fix a puzzle, and there's so many little nuances to it. 0:49:30.040 --> 0:49:32.600 We'll never get to perfection, but we always strive to 0:49:32.640 --> 0:49:34.080 get as close to it as we can, and it's 0:49:34.120 --> 0:49:36.440 what makes it so fascinating. So I've just always appreciated man, 0:49:36.480 --> 0:49:38.880 all these years. If I haven't told you in person, 0:49:38.880 --> 0:49:41.080 I'll tell you on the air here. I've so appreciated 0:49:41.080 --> 0:49:43.680 all of these shows that we've done together, because, like 0:49:43.719 --> 0:49:46.080 you said, the more we talk, the more than it 0:49:46.160 --> 0:49:49.839 triggers thoughts, and the more that we try to innovate 0:49:49.960 --> 0:49:52.680 or or figure out something which is all designed to 0:49:52.760 --> 0:49:55.080 make us make money to whatever extent. 0:49:55.840 --> 0:49:59.399 Absolutely, it's a beautiful thing. And even when you come 0:49:59.440 --> 0:50:01.040 off of You got to keep that in mind because 0:50:01.040 --> 0:50:02.840 you're gonna have days where you'll go in three or 0:50:03.080 --> 0:50:04.960 four or worse, and you got to keep that in 0:50:05.000 --> 0:50:07.480 mind that you have to really enjoy and love to 0:50:07.520 --> 0:50:09.520 do this. And it's so fun to work with you 0:50:09.600 --> 0:50:12.000 and to be on with you, and I just I 0:50:12.280 --> 0:50:13.840 can't I can't tell you how much I love you, 0:50:13.880 --> 0:50:16.120 and I love the voice of sports betting, and just 0:50:16.480 --> 0:50:19.839 as a listeners as in the off season, I'll listen 0:50:19.840 --> 0:50:23.200 to the guests and talk. I am just so gosh, 0:50:23.480 --> 0:50:25.879 I'm humbled to be on with some of the guests 0:50:25.920 --> 0:50:28.080 that you have. For you to consider me as a guest, 0:50:28.080 --> 0:50:31.359 because you've got some great guests that come on all year. 0:50:31.400 --> 0:50:33.640 Paul Carr is awesome with soccer. He does such a 0:50:33.680 --> 0:50:35.600 great job with that. That's the first guy that comes 0:50:35.640 --> 0:50:38.319 to my mind. But the list can go on. And uh, 0:50:38.600 --> 0:50:40.160 I love listening to your show and I love being on. 0:50:40.200 --> 0:50:40.560 It's fun. 0:50:40.640 --> 0:50:43.160 Well, you're the og of them all, Mark, I appreciate it, man, 0:50:43.360 --> 0:50:45.680 Mark Borchard, tell tell everybody by the way we buried 0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:47.719 the headline. I always say Base Winner. People know you 0:50:47.760 --> 0:50:50.759 from this podcast at Base Winter Baswinter dot com. You 0:50:50.800 --> 0:50:52.440 still do a Base Winter podcast, but I bear with 0:50:52.480 --> 0:50:54.759 the headline. You do something every day now except for 0:50:54.800 --> 0:50:57.239 today Wednesday, which is why we were able to record this. 0:50:57.320 --> 0:50:58.120 Tell us what that is? 0:50:58.920 --> 0:51:02.600 Yeah, every every week the MLB Show. It's a YouTube 0:51:02.680 --> 0:51:05.279 show and at lasts about an hour we get we 0:51:05.360 --> 0:51:07.440 go deep diving into the card and I think one 0:51:07.480 --> 0:51:09.359 of the things I enjoy about that is I can 0:51:09.440 --> 0:51:12.279 interact with with people who follow me and you can say, well, Base, 0:51:12.320 --> 0:51:13.920 when you set the chart out and you got this 0:51:13.960 --> 0:51:16.279 guy rated this, what's your take on the why why 0:51:16.320 --> 0:51:18.080 isn't in a play? And then I can go back 0:51:18.440 --> 0:51:20.640 down into the deeper numbers behind that and tell him 0:51:20.640 --> 0:51:22.919 why I didn't consider it a play. It's really cool. 0:51:22.920 --> 0:51:24.680 It's a it's a it's a great it's a great show. 0:51:24.680 --> 0:51:25.480 It's fun for me. 0:51:26.000 --> 0:51:26.160 Uh. 0:51:26.200 --> 0:51:27.839 We actually have a lot of fun on it too, 0:51:27.920 --> 0:51:29.399 so that that's that's a bonus as well. 0:51:29.440 --> 0:51:30.920 What's the quickest way to find it? How do what 0:51:30.960 --> 0:51:31.319 do they do? 0:51:32.080 --> 0:51:34.920 MLB Show? Bet us? Just do a search on YouTube 0:51:34.920 --> 0:51:35.680 and you'll find me. 0:51:35.760 --> 0:51:37.560 And you do it with Jason Wingarden as well or 0:51:37.560 --> 0:51:38.279 old buddy. 0:51:38.120 --> 0:51:41.440 Yeah Jace Jason on Tuesdays and Thursdays, we're together. And 0:51:41.480 --> 0:51:45.240 then and then and Kyle uh prevdances as the host. 0:51:45.239 --> 0:51:47.840 He does a great job, fun guy. And then Corby 0:51:47.840 --> 0:51:50.080 Craig is one of the other analysts too, and and 0:51:50.080 --> 0:51:51.560 and he does a lot of good stuff. He does 0:51:51.600 --> 0:51:53.319 a lot of good stuff with stat Cast. So it's cool. 0:51:53.560 --> 0:51:55.560 And yeah, we have we have a fun time. And 0:51:55.560 --> 0:51:57.680 and you guys want to check us out and ask 0:51:57.760 --> 0:52:00.200 me questions. Uh feel free. I love I love the question. 0:52:00.239 --> 0:52:01.319 It's my favorite part of the show. 0:52:01.360 --> 0:52:04.440 Gil love it, Mark Borch and everybody. Thank you, Mark, appreciate, 0:52:04.520 --> 0:52:08.720 love you man, Thank you, Thank you Gil. Thanks for listening. 0:52:09.200 --> 0:52:12.680 Our next podcast is our US Open preview next week 0:52:12.840 --> 0:52:15.120 right after the draw. Thanks for listening. Good luck with Paul, 0:52:15.120 --> 0:52:15.440 your buck