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Speaker 2: let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games
Speaker 2: are insane. I mean you had over seven hundred yards
Speaker 2: of offense tonight, over five hundred passing yards between the
Speaker 2: Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff about
Speaker 2: five and a half yards of play if you avered
Speaker 2: the two teams. Let's see forty six first downs and
Speaker 2: no fumbles. Each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession
Speaker 2: was even. First of all, Sean McVay and Matt Stafford
Speaker 2: and Cooper Cup. No Puka Nakua, he got hurt. Both
Speaker 2: your offensive tackles are out makeshift offensive line to go
Speaker 2: into Detroit Sunday night football against the super Bowl level
Speaker 2: team in Detroit, and really I thought they had the
Speaker 2: game one and regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper
Speaker 2: Cup and Sean McVay, who's a rock star. And in
Speaker 2: the end though I felt like Detroit when it went
Speaker 2: to overtime, I'm like, Okay, now it's Detroit's game. The
Speaker 2: Rams look tired sometimes at Chris Collinsworth made a great point,
Speaker 2: you're not really built in week one to go to
Speaker 2: overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just
Speaker 2: only so much. I don't know who. I don't have
Speaker 2: the betting lines next week, but I mean the Rams
Speaker 2: and the Lions. They if they were a little off
Speaker 2: next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is
Speaker 2: the Rams. I mean, I wrote these numbers down. At
Speaker 2: one point they had a twenty eight to twelve first
Speaker 2: down advantage on the road, four hundred yards, three hundred
Speaker 2: passing yard, dominating time of possession, and a seventy eight
Speaker 2: to forty five total play advantage at one point in
Speaker 2: this game. But credit a very deep, now experienced Lions team,
Speaker 2: like they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay
Speaker 2: is still young, the Rams are actually pretty young. San
Speaker 2: Francisco is older, but the Detroit's got a veteran club
Speaker 2: here and now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson
Speaker 2: and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a
Speaker 2: team like the Rams gave it everything they had, but
Speaker 2: they they looked really shot in overtime, and to the
Speaker 2: Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them.
Speaker 2: They didn't f around at all. They went right at
Speaker 2: the Rams interior D line and it worked. I think
Speaker 2: one of the things I'm always taken by is how
Speaker 2: good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good.
Speaker 2: But I've said this before, if Matt Stafford and the Rams.
Speaker 2: And remember what you saw from the Rams Night's impressive.
Speaker 2: Poka Nakool will be back, They'll have both their offensive tackles,
Speaker 2: their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be
Speaker 2: a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side.
Speaker 2: I mean they got two rookies starting on that defensive front.
Speaker 2: Give those guys twelve to fifteen games. This Ram team
Speaker 2: by the end of the year, you don't want any
Speaker 2: part of This is a really good team. The difference
Speaker 2: is the Lions are supposed to be good now and
Speaker 2: they got out played for big chunks of this football game.
Speaker 2: One of the things I worry about with the Lions
Speaker 2: is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth,
Speaker 2: so they got to keep amor On Saint Brown healthy.
Speaker 2: They don't have a lot of depth there, and the
Speaker 2: Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're
Speaker 2: a better team in the back end. Rams, and maybe
Speaker 2: it's just the Rams Cooper Cup can do that. Rams
Speaker 2: kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that
Speaker 2: football game. Again, the Rams had a seventy eight to
Speaker 2: forty five play advantage at one point, and we're dominating
Speaker 2: time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit
Speaker 2: I didn't think played particularly well in the second half
Speaker 2: and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant.
Speaker 2: A heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on
Speaker 2: the road, a great team on Sunday night football, and
Speaker 2: you lose, that's a long flight back to LA But
Speaker 2: I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams,
Speaker 2: two teams that could meet again in the NFC Championship.
Speaker 2: Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Would not be surprised
Speaker 2: in the least. You know the other thing, the Rams,
Speaker 2: and I wouldn't call this a problem. It's fascinating. So
Speaker 2: there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up
Speaker 2: last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford?
Speaker 2: Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight.
Speaker 2: He went thirty four for forty nine for three hundred
Speaker 2: and seventeen yards and a touchdown, the pass rush in
Speaker 2: his face. In the second half, he went eighteen to
Speaker 2: twenty three for two hundred yards, and again he's under dress.
Speaker 2: Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket, And I'm sitting
Speaker 2: there watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the
Speaker 2: Rams for the next couple of years, in the draft,
Speaker 2: why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are
Speaker 2: you going to get in the draft that's as good
Speaker 2: as this guy. I know he's older, but when I
Speaker 2: watched him tonight on the road pass rush, I mean,
Speaker 2: it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higbee his
Speaker 2: top tight end. He's banged up, he didn't have Pooka Nakua,
Speaker 2: he didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic.
Speaker 2: You're not going to face many pass rushes, certainly tonight.
Speaker 2: You're not going to face many environments in this league
Speaker 2: harder than that. And this guy's eighteen for twenty three
Speaker 2: in the second half. So you know, I was sitting
Speaker 2: as I watched the game, and I'm thinking, what I mean, move.
Speaker 2: He's never been a big mover. He moves well enough
Speaker 2: in the pocket, his arm's great. I mean, he's clearly
Speaker 2: going a thousand miles an hour cognitively. Upstairs, he's got
Speaker 2: an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. Now
Speaker 2: they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in
Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off.
Speaker 2: I think he was in Tampa at one point. He
Speaker 2: had a huge play tonight. And I'm just saying, I'm
Speaker 2: looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young.
Speaker 2: Stafford's the old guy.
Speaker 1: But I don't know.
Speaker 2: If I draft a quarterback and find the Rams, I
Speaker 2: would definitely draft to tackle. Robin Havenstein died in play
Speaker 2: the night right tackle he's getting up there, and I
Speaker 2: would get another wide receiver. But I mean, last year,
Speaker 2: five of their six top picks or defense, so there's
Speaker 2: no reason you know they they are close. I think
Speaker 2: they could get to the super Bowl. I don't know
Speaker 2: if they as good as Kansas City. I don't know
Speaker 2: if there's good as Baltimore. I don't know, but they're
Speaker 2: certainly in a group of four or five teams that
Speaker 2: could get there, five or six teams maybe. So I
Speaker 2: just you're watching Stafford. I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't
Speaker 2: look close to retirement. He didn't look close. Only one
Speaker 2: team in the AFC East did not win, the New
Speaker 2: York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing, and I
Speaker 2: understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one
Speaker 2: year the Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball
Speaker 2: at will on the Steelers defense. It was a complete blowout.
Speaker 2: You know, you face the Andy Reids and you're you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, look at what Sean mcvayh and Stafford did
Speaker 2: in a losing effort, missing multiple starters Like these offensive
Speaker 2: coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak
Speaker 2: looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face.
Speaker 2: But I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was
Speaker 2: on the field was thirty eight minutes to nineteen. That's embarrassing.
Speaker 2: That's what Will Levice would produce. The first downs when
Speaker 2: Aaron was on the field, Jets had a twenty five
Speaker 2: to eleven deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense.
Speaker 2: This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime
Speaker 2: off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you
Speaker 2: can trust and Bresall I thought the old line was fine.
Speaker 2: Aaron only sacked one time. They were fine that this
Speaker 2: wasn't Aaron Rodgers running for his life. You know, let's
Speaker 2: just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not
Speaker 2: in his prime. He's not as big, strong an athletic
Speaker 2: as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He's not
Speaker 2: as he doesn't move like a Kyler, Murray Lamar or
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes. And I watched them tonight and I think
Speaker 2: we have overvalued how good Aaron Rodgers is now. It's
Speaker 2: going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They
Speaker 2: faced Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Kobe Brissett
Speaker 2: in New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the
Speaker 2: Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really
Speaker 2: good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the
Speaker 2: Jets defense is not going to face this team. But
Speaker 2: I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws
Speaker 2: a really pretty ball. Esthetically, it's fun to watch. It's
Speaker 2: like that first big drive was great, but the only
Speaker 2: other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when
Speaker 2: the Niners' safeties were playing catch up because they paused.
Speaker 2: Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL.
Speaker 2: There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go
Speaker 2: into detail, but I always feel like He loves the
Speaker 2: free ball because even if he throws a pick, it
Speaker 2: doesn't count. So he gets really hyper aggressive on the
Speaker 2: free ball and more aggressive than he is normally. Loves
Speaker 2: to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's
Speaker 2: reluctant to do in my opinion, in other parts of
Speaker 2: the game. So I just I look at that offense
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine,
Speaker 2: but it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend
Speaker 2: plays like he used to. You know, they've got one receiver,
Speaker 2: I like, Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the
Speaker 2: first half. The tight ends are irrelevant, and Breese Hall's good.
Speaker 2: But this is not a high powered offense. You've got
Speaker 2: a defensive head coach, a quarterback passed his prime, and
Speaker 2: Nt Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up.
Speaker 2: Miami's offense is going to be better all year because
Speaker 2: of Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's
Speaker 2: the third best offense in their division. Let's be totally.
Speaker 2: It's not a Houston, it's not Kansas City. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on
Speaker 2: this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So and that's
Speaker 2: just it's not the Rams or the Niners. On the
Speaker 2: other side, I don't think it's the Lions. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense.
Speaker 2: It's not Dallas. After week one, you know it's not
Speaker 2: a top ten offense. So you're going to have to
Speaker 2: rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to
Speaker 2: the defense. They got pushed around Jesus Jordan Mason. They
Speaker 2: had one hundred and eighty yards rushing. I mean, they
Speaker 2: had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to. Now,
Speaker 2: again it's Shanahan, it's the opener, but the San Francisco
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers offensive line is the weakness of the team,
Speaker 2: and with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp,
Speaker 2: that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring.
Speaker 2: I thought this was going to be played between the thirties.
Speaker 2: I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up
Speaker 2: chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean,
Speaker 2: it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to.
Speaker 2: It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could
Speaker 2: run it with Deebo or Jordan Mason. It was Kittle,
Speaker 2: it was Ayuk, I mean he dropped a touchdown. They
Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted to for most of this game.
Speaker 2: And again now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nicks.
Speaker 2: It's not the same. I mean the Jets defense. In fact,
Speaker 2: you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped
Speaker 2: the following week because the Niners are so physical. I
Speaker 2: think the Jets coming back were kind of physically humiliated
Speaker 2: in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think
Speaker 2: it would.
Speaker 1: Look like that.
Speaker 2: I didn't think it would look like that. I thought
Speaker 2: this thing had twenty three twenty written all over it.
Speaker 2: I cannot believe what the Niners offensive line did. It
Speaker 2: was chunk plays six eight eleven, six eight eleven.
Speaker 1: It was easy.
Speaker 2: It was just and they weren't doing a lot of tricks,
Speaker 2: you know. I mean, the Rams and the Niners use
Speaker 2: a lot of motion. I never felt Miami does as well.
Speaker 2: I didn't feel it was terribly deceptive tonight. I didn't think.
Speaker 2: I thought the Niners just kind of rare back, ran
Speaker 2: to the perimeter and did whatever they wanted to outside
Speaker 2: the tackles. It was easy stuff. Brock pretty I mean,
Speaker 2: he wasn't squeezing the ball into tight windows. Jennings Debo
Speaker 2: people were open. So this wasn't a very resilient effort
Speaker 2: by the Jets. I take copious notes. You know, one
Speaker 2: point twenty three to seven, Aaron gets picked. That's twenty
Speaker 2: six to seven the free play. But you know Aaron's
Speaker 2: a master at that. I guess the best news for
Speaker 2: the Jets the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably.
Speaker 2: But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to
Speaker 2: point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would
Speaker 2: be great tonight, flying cross country BOSA against an old
Speaker 2: Tyron Smith, Like I thought it would be choppy. The
Speaker 2: Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Reddick's absence.
Speaker 2: That was a weak effort. That was a non competitive effort.
Speaker 2: Jesus thirty eight to nineteen minutes time of possession when
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers were on the field. That's an ass kicking.
Speaker 2: That's like, you're not competitive, You're not extending drives at all.
Speaker 2: I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it
Speaker 2: without Christian McCaffrey, who is the engine to this offense.
Speaker 2: One hundred and eighty plus rushing yards, but no Christian
Speaker 2: McCaffrey wide open receivers twenty five to eleven first down
Speaker 2: edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm I'm
Speaker 2: I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had
Speaker 2: eight straight scoring drives. I you can Trent Williams held
Speaker 2: out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives. That's
Speaker 2: like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's Week one. It's not like you have a litany
Speaker 2: of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives like Robert Salah that
Speaker 2: that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is this
Speaker 2: is your culture, this is your team. I mean, would
Speaker 2: you have guessed that, I mean McCatty once you heard
Speaker 2: McCaffrey wasn't gonna play. If I said to you, they'll
Speaker 2: score in eight straight scoring drives, you would have said, oh,
Speaker 2: come on, you're an Aaron Rodgers hater. That's bad. TD
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Speaker 2: All Right, Former NFL Scout three and out podcaster John
Speaker 2: Middelkoff of the Volume Week one reaction presented by Uber
Speaker 2: Eats get almost almost anything for Game Day. All right,
Speaker 2: let's start with Tom Brady's debut. Good God, Cleveland a disaster.
Speaker 2: You know, I was sitting there thinking as I'm watching
Speaker 2: that game, if you're going to sign a contract to
Speaker 2: a quarterback, to a guaranteed contract, which you you know
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins got one and and DeShawn Watson. I not
Speaker 2: only want a great player, I want a great leader.
Speaker 2: I want great health, I want an ascending player. He's
Speaker 2: virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland.
Speaker 2: What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better
Speaker 2: quarterback today, John than Deshaun Watson. I mean, Baker was
Speaker 2: a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like,
Speaker 2: we know it's not Stefanski. We know he's a really
Speaker 2: bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I
Speaker 2: don't even know what Deshaun Watson is. I mean changing uniforms.
Speaker 2: He's a bottom ten quarterback.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: As funny as I had on the Redskins or the
Speaker 1: Commander's game on a little TV and I wrote down
Speaker 1: about ten minutes before we jumped on, Baker's in a
Speaker 1: different universe. Not just as a thrower, his touch, I
Speaker 1: mean Deshaun's throwing balls into the stands constantly, but his swag,
Speaker 1: the way he carries himself, the way his teammates, and
Speaker 1: even as a playmaker. I mean it's not like Baker's
Speaker 1: some elite athlete, but moving around. Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott
Speaker 1: signed the same contract, essentially two hundred and thirty million
Speaker 1: dollars guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has
Speaker 1: character question marks and who has a short resume. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has
Speaker 1: to go down immediately as one of the worst deals
Speaker 1: in the history of pro sports. You look at Dak
Speaker 1: has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player,
Speaker 1: super smart guy, yeah, high character leader. Everyone that knows
Speaker 1: him like him. Deshaun Watson. I was out on him
Speaker 1: last year. Today, what an embarrassment? Where's the playmaking? Colin?
Speaker 1: He doesn't make any play well.
Speaker 2: And he was never a hyper athletic or he was
Speaker 2: never a hyper accurate thrower. That was always the beat
Speaker 2: on him. I can remember his first year, everybody liked him.
Speaker 2: He would skip throws. He's not a pretty thrower, he's
Speaker 2: not an easy thrower. Everything looks like it's a struggle downfield.
Speaker 2: You know, he was a wildly dynamic athlete. You take
Speaker 2: that out and I mean, he's no more athletic today
Speaker 2: than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of
Speaker 2: a b athlete and a b arm But I was
Speaker 2: watching Daxon and I'm like, oh, Dak's a much much
Speaker 2: better player than Deshaun Watson. And the thing about Dak,
Speaker 2: Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults,
Speaker 2: you do feel like he is the soul of the organization.
Speaker 2: He's the soul for sure. Deshaun Watson, if you went
Speaker 2: through that locker room and a half the guy asked
Speaker 2: half the guys and you go, you could move off
Speaker 2: the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think
Speaker 2: desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You
Speaker 2: can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I
Speaker 2: want to talk about the Bears game. First of all,
Speaker 2: the fact that they won a game and passed for
Speaker 2: sixty four yards, so it was interesting. Belichick said something
Speaker 2: last week. I took the Titans to win that game,
Speaker 2: and basically I was on the right side. I felt
Speaker 2: for almost the entire game. But Belichick said something this
Speaker 2: week and I took it to heart. Belichick said, I
Speaker 2: wasn't impressed. He was like ten for twenty. And I
Speaker 2: went back and I text somebody who is I know
Speaker 2: who's in the NFL who's been critical of him. And
Speaker 2: the big question with Caleb is high school. In college,
Speaker 2: he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy,
Speaker 2: he can really get into the high grass. And if
Speaker 2: you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in
Speaker 2: his first three years and then Andy would pull him
Speaker 2: back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done
Speaker 2: that in his career where it's so easy for Mahomes
Speaker 2: and Stafford they start side arming two out of three throws,
Speaker 2: the mechanics get sloppy, and I thought with Caleb, he's
Speaker 2: got a defensive coach, So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at
Speaker 2: one point had an offensive coordinator he really connected with.
Speaker 2: Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is
Speaker 2: when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on
Speaker 2: the fairway? Because I thought today he struggled at times
Speaker 2: to see things. You know, I thought his decision making
Speaker 2: late in the game and not making mistakes and taking
Speaker 2: what was given for him was fine. But I mean
Speaker 2: all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good
Speaker 2: as any bud and he threw two picks. What did
Speaker 2: you make of Caleb overall today?
Speaker 1: Well, I think if you go back to Bill's comments,
Speaker 1: He's like, listen, I'm not being a hater, but I
Speaker 1: don't put anything in the preseason. And when you're inaccurate
Speaker 1: in the preseason. Do you know what hit me today?
Speaker 1: Watching about ten games in the morning on different TVs
Speaker 1: and screens. You know how the NBA. Once the playoffs start,
Speaker 1: You're like, what we just witnessed for the last six
Speaker 1: months doesn't even look like the same sport. That's kind
Speaker 1: of the preseason. I mean, the first ten minutes of
Speaker 1: like ten am to like ten thirty, You're watching the
Speaker 1: Steeler game, the Houston Indie game. Guys are flying around.
Speaker 1: I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right, So,
Speaker 1: the defensive game plans. All these defensive coordinators, even the
Speaker 1: average ones, are making one and a half two million dollars.
Speaker 1: They're paid a lot of money to do this. The
Speaker 1: physicality of the game rams up the question on Caleb
Speaker 1: he is going to be able to make spectacular throws
Speaker 1: though he wasn't doing that today. He was I think
Speaker 1: he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot.
Speaker 1: But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket,
Speaker 1: whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw.
Speaker 1: And it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on
Speaker 1: him fast. Now. The tight Jeffrey Simmons is probably one
Speaker 1: of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know
Speaker 1: that much about because he plays for the Titans. You
Speaker 1: put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something.
Speaker 1: He'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass
Speaker 1: hard and he was he was thrown off and will
Speaker 1: Levis bailed their team out. Because if will Levis does
Speaker 1: n't self implode, the Titans not only easily should have covered,
Speaker 1: they should win the game. I mean, he looked like
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones there, but Caleb was He was atrocious today.
Speaker 1: I mean he really was, which is fair because this
Speaker 1: is what Bill and Bill's an old school guy, Sean Payton's,
Speaker 1: all these guys that come from the eighties, the nineties,
Speaker 1: the Bill Parcells. They hate hype, you know you and
Speaker 1: I like some hype, Yeah, I enjoy it. Those guys
Speaker 1: do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once
Speaker 1: you kick off week one, and all that hype was
Speaker 1: meaningless today if on third and seven he's skipping a
Speaker 1: ball and he was, and it unraveled fast. The arm strength,
Speaker 1: all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said,
Speaker 1: it gets back to Jayden Daniels. Beside his running didn't
Speaker 1: look great. Bo Nicks, who has an offensive play caller now,
Speaker 1: he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot
Speaker 1: of the time. Yeah, it's hard. This is really really.
Speaker 1: This is why I've said pump the breaks, especially on
Speaker 1: Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright
Speaker 1: picked him to win the Super Bowl. A lot of
Speaker 1: people are hot, you know, he threw that out. I
Speaker 1: don't know if he actually picked. But my point is
Speaker 1: he could make serious strides as the year goes on
Speaker 1: and they could win seven games. This is really Look
Speaker 1: at Sam Darnolly, He's been the league for like seven years.
Speaker 1: Has taken him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: it's not easy.
Speaker 2: No, I said this. I did a piece for Fox
Speaker 2: Sunday and I said, be careful on Caleb Williams. This
Speaker 2: is one of the best divisions. This is a franchise
Speaker 2: that ran Trubisky out of town and he made the
Speaker 2: playoffs twice with Aaron Rodgers and Stafford in their prime.
Speaker 2: This media is rough, the weather gets rough by Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: If they win eight games and he gets better, take it.
Speaker 2: If you could take that today and say he's significantly better,
Speaker 2: we win at games we finished third, take it, because
Speaker 2: what success looks like to Dak is not what success
Speaker 2: looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew
Speaker 2: up the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now,
Speaker 2: that's still really hard. Yeah, it's still really hard. But
Speaker 2: quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a
Speaker 2: run centric league. It's a sixty forty sixty two to
Speaker 2: thirty eight passing league. And I mean it's even Gino Smith,
Speaker 2: a veteran today his best play was a run. Like
Speaker 2: this stuff is hard, and I think we just have
Speaker 2: to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I
Speaker 2: thought bow Nicks had a little rhythm at one point
Speaker 2: in the game where he felt like I felt like
Speaker 2: bow seeing the game. It wasn't doing much, but he
Speaker 2: was seeing the game, he was seeing the field, and
Speaker 2: he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all
Speaker 2: twenty four points today were scored by defense and special teams.
Speaker 2: Will Levis to me, is done. He's baked. I don't
Speaker 2: think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't
Speaker 2: see the field. Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to
Speaker 2: be fine, But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And
Speaker 2: I think the other thing is if you opened up
Speaker 2: on the road, it's different, dude. He opened up in Chicago.
Speaker 2: The weather was perfect, that a buddy at the game,
Speaker 2: like there was a lot of fricking heat on Caleb today,
Speaker 2: Like a.
Speaker 1: Lot of pressure on Caleb. Well, that's where if you
Speaker 1: you know, if you take bo Nicks, you take Caleb.
Speaker 1: Bo Nix is in Seattle where the place is really
Speaker 1: loud and he can barely hear himself. Think Caleb gets
Speaker 1: a pretty BP fastball of twelve o'clock kickoff in Chicago.
Speaker 1: I'm a huge believer in two things. For young people,
Speaker 1: whether you're a professional athlete or just a normal person
Speaker 1: in society, confidence can be lost really quickly, and it
Speaker 1: can be hard to gain. I would say, you know
Speaker 1: in your early twenties and when you are everyone's looking
Speaker 1: at you. When you start losing confidence, it can spiral
Speaker 1: and the only thing you ever have to go back
Speaker 1: on is your experience. But as a young player, you
Speaker 1: don't have any experience. Like Geno today, you're watching early on,
Speaker 1: You're like gott Seattle looks weird, he's been through it.
Speaker 1: Dak today. All these guys have so much experience that
Speaker 1: they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak
Speaker 1: out over a bad quarter. And you just watched Caleb.
Speaker 1: You just felt it snowballing, and what does he have
Speaker 1: to go back on?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Nothing? And it's not like he can look over there
Speaker 1: and Bill Walsh's on the sideline and be like, listen,
Speaker 1: I've been doing this for thirty years, won a couple
Speaker 1: Super Bowls. I'm gonna call three plays, get you a
Speaker 1: couple of layups. And they were just they were very scattered. Yes,
Speaker 1: they felt very I mean there was one point in
Speaker 1: time in that game before Will Levis just pooped down
Speaker 1: his own leg where You're like, are they gonna lose
Speaker 1: twenty eight to ten? Yeah, and just be the number
Speaker 1: one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears
Speaker 1: and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think,
Speaker 1: because that I really think that you can defensive turnovers,
Speaker 1: like if they're playing a top, if they're playing just
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield or Ge they have blown out, they get killed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean they get killed.
Speaker 1: And I'm not jumping on Caleb here, which I would
Speaker 1: imagine is going to happen a lot this week. I
Speaker 1: just think everyone this is so much more difficult at
Speaker 1: the NFL level than college, even if you're playing at
Speaker 1: a high level of college and Caleb was playing a
Speaker 1: lot of good teams in college. But the level of athlete,
Speaker 1: the level of speed, he just did the rhythm. I mean,
Speaker 1: it was just it was glaring.
Speaker 2: I want to talk about the Broncos and Seahawks, because
Speaker 2: again I thought Bo had his moments. I'm watching Seattle
Speaker 2: and I say this respectively to Pete Carroll. I think
Speaker 2: Seattle has elite talent. I just don't think people know
Speaker 2: the players. But Walker, they're wide receivers. They have tremendous
Speaker 2: young corners they got to consider to pass rush. They
Speaker 2: got the Murphy kid in the draft, the top defensive tackle.
Speaker 2: A fan left today. It's Gino is what he is, like,
Speaker 2: he's a really solid he's a great story. He is
Speaker 2: what he is. He's not gonna lose you a lot
Speaker 2: of games. He's not gonna win you a lot of games.
Speaker 2: But I'm watching that game today and Sean Payton coached
Speaker 2: his ass off for a half. He got them. I
Speaker 2: mean a lot of this was Seattle do it getting safeties,
Speaker 2: and it was quirky, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: by the second half, you're like, Okay, now we're off script,
Speaker 2: and now Bo Nicks is a rookie quarterback, and he
Speaker 2: just you know, that's the difference between a veteran dak
Speaker 2: in the second half and bow Knicks in the second half.
Speaker 2: Both's like, Okay, now they adjusted, So I got the
Speaker 2: everything on the script. I figured out. Now it's all
Speaker 2: off script, and I'm watching that Seattle team. John, But
Speaker 2: I think you called him one of the surprise teams.
Speaker 2: I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore.
Speaker 2: I think they are really talented. They really they fly
Speaker 2: around the field defensively.
Speaker 1: I actually was kind of on the other side, well,
Speaker 1: their talent. My issue with them is they've been they
Speaker 1: were poorly coached, but they've been winning nine games. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not like they've been winning five and a good division. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's why I'm fanseled. How do they go from? Do
Speaker 1: you think they could win eleven? I still think their
Speaker 1: offensive line has some question mark Today safety got punked.
Speaker 1: Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker,
Speaker 1: there's a chance at the end of the year he's
Speaker 1: a top five running back. How about the catch Lockett
Speaker 1: made to seal the game. He's their third wide receiver.
Speaker 2: And he's been there Jesus, he's been great for ten years.
Speaker 1: He's got to be one of the more underappreciated players
Speaker 1: of his generation. Might not even be close. I think
Speaker 1: I could play for my team any day now. If
Speaker 1: their defense is better, they still might be a nine
Speaker 1: ish win team. But could they beat the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers in again, because they haven't beat the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers in five games now, Gina, they play him two
Speaker 1: years ago in the playoffs now, so they if they
Speaker 1: can play at a more physical brand. My question marks
Speaker 1: you never know what the coordinator going to a head coach.
Speaker 1: He's young. I think he's thirty seven years old. And
Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who
Speaker 1: was to bors right him, had never coached in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They showed his resume to day. He was a Sioux
Speaker 1: Falls not that long ago. It's a pretty quick jump.
Speaker 1: Now he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their
Speaker 1: coaching staff might just be better. I saw watch John
Speaker 1: Schnyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You
Speaker 1: can tell he thinks they got something. Not he knows
Speaker 1: their team is talented, but like he thinks the coaching
Speaker 1: staff's pretty good. So like can they beat McVeigh and Kyle,
Speaker 1: can they split? Can they go to and two? Because
Speaker 1: if they can, then maybe they're not nine and eight,
Speaker 1: they're ten and seven and they're like the six or
Speaker 1: seven seed. I would say that's possible. I'm not going
Speaker 1: to overreact to playing Denver who. It's just you could
Speaker 1: tell they're a little talent devision still with with a
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. But yeah, I mean it's hard not to.
Speaker 1: He's an easy guy to root for. G know's an
Speaker 1: easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday
Speaker 1: night Monday Night games and Tom Brady calling it if
Speaker 1: you're both four and one or however the schedule and
Speaker 1: you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners, are
Speaker 1: you I'm not picking Gino Smith Homer Away?
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right? Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman CEO,
Speaker 2: Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I was
Speaker 2: a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two and one.
Speaker 2: So I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean I
Speaker 2: was wrong on the Carolina side, but other than that,
Speaker 2: I felt pretty good about it. I could go in
Speaker 2: an order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
Speaker 2: I am above going in order. I just give you
Speaker 2: my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
Speaker 2: with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
Speaker 2: City Arrowhead, and I think the Chiefs are a better
Speaker 2: version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
Speaker 2: the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
Speaker 2: well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
Speaker 2: they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
Speaker 2: They beat them at the only game. I think Baltimore's
Speaker 2: really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
Speaker 2: on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
Speaker 2: It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Speaker 2: Baltimore's pissed. I'm gonna swallow the eight and a half
Speaker 2: Sharper square. So it's square.
Speaker 4: But you're not going to find a ton of guys who,
Speaker 4: when they're doing this, are excited about betting the Raiders.
Speaker 4: You mentioned Carolina, right, I was on Carolina last week too.
Speaker 4: The wise guys will be on Carolina again this week
Speaker 4: at six and a half point underdogs, in the same
Speaker 4: way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started
Speaker 4: at nine and a half got up to ten and
Speaker 4: then was bet down to nine and a half, than nine,
Speaker 4: and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer
Speaker 4: to a number that I think at some point the
Speaker 4: wise guys will come back in on Baltimore. But at
Speaker 4: this big of a number, they're just betting the number,
Speaker 4: And this early in the season, everything tells you that
Speaker 4: you are playing against the over reaction. Right, everyone saw
Speaker 4: the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a
Speaker 4: toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive
Speaker 4: game against the Chiefs team that looks like you can
Speaker 4: break every rule of betting that exists in the universe. Right,
Speaker 4: the Raiders people were high on. They got crushed and
Speaker 4: they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Peers
Speaker 4: made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the Athletic that
Speaker 4: that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory,
Speaker 4: it was the first time a coach had been down
Speaker 4: in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted
Speaker 4: in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls
Speaker 4: that has been made in the past eight years. And
Speaker 4: you could see him on camera. There's the videos of
Speaker 4: him saying should I be going for this right now.
Speaker 4: So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the
Speaker 4: bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by
Speaker 4: the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to
Speaker 4: be on the Raiders.
Speaker 2: So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
Speaker 2: played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
Speaker 2: good a the Niners. That's very hard to do back
Speaker 2: to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Speaker 2: Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
Speaker 2: great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
Speaker 2: tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
Speaker 2: I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
Speaker 2: If they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
Speaker 2: place team in the history of the league. They've got
Speaker 2: a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
Speaker 2: really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
Speaker 2: before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
Speaker 2: he's operating at a different level. This was at six
Speaker 2: at one point. I think I take the Vikings five
Speaker 2: and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4: Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half,
Speaker 4: they took them at six. They still like the Vikings.
Speaker 4: I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
Speaker 4: this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
Speaker 4: so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
Speaker 4: he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
Speaker 4: actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
Speaker 4: he's also been very good on short weeks on the
Speaker 4: road eight and two during his career, one of the
Speaker 4: four best coaches in the past five years on short
Speaker 4: weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
Speaker 4: I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
Speaker 4: more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
Speaker 4: You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
Speaker 4: Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck
Speaker 4: for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams
Speaker 4: that were excellent in one score games they played each
Speaker 4: other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota, Brian
Speaker 4: dave Ball wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more
Speaker 4: credit as the best coach, right, and Kevin O'Connell had
Speaker 4: a similar year and then last year did wonders when
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Daball's team is cratering
Speaker 4: when their top quarterback goes down. Then we see what
Speaker 4: happens last week. A bad quarterback for the Giants, a
Speaker 4: historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a
Speaker 4: Cinderella like first half ten for ten on his first
Speaker 4: ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety nine yard touchdown
Speaker 4: drive that ends with a fourth down pass like touchdown
Speaker 4: pass to Jehin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach,
Speaker 4: and I think that's another reason why the why these
Speaker 4: guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2: So there's two things that I look at with the
Speaker 2: Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game
Speaker 2: and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, Like the Jets
Speaker 2: were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
Speaker 2: San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That
Speaker 2: was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in the league. For a
Speaker 2: quarterback I don't think can play. I don't think Will
Speaker 2: Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I
Speaker 2: think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on
Speaker 2: the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is
Speaker 2: San Francisco makes everybody, So does Andy Reid and McVeigh.
Speaker 2: They make a lot of people look bad. In the
Speaker 2: week one, I think the Jets are actually a pretty
Speaker 2: good football team. When this number got up to four.
Speaker 2: Now I sound like such a square on this, but
Speaker 2: four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four.
Speaker 2: I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want
Speaker 2: to create force. They'd rather you be three to three
Speaker 2: and a half. When the market has to go to four,
Speaker 2: their signaling. Look, it is just a better team. This
Speaker 2: started for the Jets for a better team. They're pissed.
Speaker 2: I don't think Will Levis can play home Field's never
Speaker 2: met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take
Speaker 2: the Jets minus three and a half.
Speaker 4: Well, otherwise, guys like the Titans and they're kind of
Speaker 4: holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
Speaker 4: and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
Speaker 4: you bring it up, and we'll do that. In the
Speaker 4: last part of my soliloquy. Here the Jets had were
Speaker 4: physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
Speaker 4: supposed to be their strength, as you noted, h straight
Speaker 4: scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
Speaker 4: scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
Speaker 4: to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Callahan
Speaker 4: showed last week that he can do something really interesting
Speaker 4: with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective. You know,
Speaker 4: Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach,
Speaker 4: left the Browns this past season to go work with
Speaker 4: his son revamp the Titans offensive line. The Titans defense
Speaker 4: did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right
Speaker 4: like the Bears were scoring on special teams and they
Speaker 4: were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said,
Speaker 4: is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the
Speaker 4: number here. The four is key. Teams that open at
Speaker 4: four or higher at home in weeks one and two
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years. Teams
Speaker 4: that opened at four or higher at home after losing
Speaker 4: their last game against the spread, which the text with
Speaker 4: the Titans did sixty four percent since twenty twenty one
Speaker 4: more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated
Speaker 4: on Monday night, and now of a defense that was
Speaker 4: on the field for a ton of plays going back
Speaker 4: short week to be against another really physical team. That's
Speaker 4: what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than
Speaker 4: twenty five minutes of possession in Week one six and
Speaker 4: twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen
Speaker 4: percent the jedal. So look, I'm with you, like, this
Speaker 4: isn't going to be one of my five best plays
Speaker 4: because I don't trust Will Levis. It's and it's it's
Speaker 4: becoming clear in this league there is such a delta
Speaker 4: between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not it's
Speaker 4: becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite
Speaker 4: all these numbers that go back, you're gonna have to
Speaker 4: play the quarterback in some situations. And this, to me
Speaker 4: is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They
Speaker 4: bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2: I want to take Denver plus two and a half
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. And here's what, Thank god, I thought
Speaker 2: it was a really tough spot for bow Knicks. In
Speaker 2: the opener, loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
Speaker 2: You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
Speaker 2: got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
Speaker 2: to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
Speaker 2: He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
Speaker 2: another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
Speaker 2: he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
Speaker 2: not be the best year, two three, four, he's going
Speaker 2: to have the best year. The rest of them have
Speaker 2: defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
Speaker 2: good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
Speaker 2: think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers, his dogs,
Speaker 2: not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: One, ding Ding Ding ding Ding. Wise guys love the Broncos.
Speaker 4: Here's probably going to take a little piece of the
Speaker 4: Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for
Speaker 4: bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys they love Seattle.
Speaker 4: They're really impressed with Seattle defense. So love Mike McDonald
Speaker 4: and what he can do with that team. And I
Speaker 4: think the Wise guys were also really impressed with how
Speaker 4: much better the Broncos played last year this last week
Speaker 4: as a team versus what they looked like a year ago.
Speaker 4: And defensively true, but I think they were excited about
Speaker 4: bo Nicks. And if you watch the game back and
Speaker 4: we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
Speaker 4: professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
Speaker 4: recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
Speaker 4: was still getting to know the pace of the game.
Speaker 4: They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
Speaker 4: the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
Speaker 4: made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
Speaker 4: Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
Speaker 4: of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
Speaker 4: moved from three to two and a half, and I
Speaker 4: will say you excited about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest
Speaker 4: underdog coach possibly in the history of the game the
Speaker 4: past twenty years.
Speaker 2: For sure.
Speaker 4: Not just great as an underdog, great as an underdog
Speaker 4: winning outright, he is just as bad when he is
Speaker 4: a favorite. Forty one twenty eight and one against spread
Speaker 4: as a road dog in his career, thirty two forty
Speaker 4: and two as a road favorite, so it's almost completely
Speaker 4: flipped right. And when he opens as a favorite of
Speaker 4: three or more on the road, thirty eight percent against
Speaker 4: the spread, So I would say you're on the right side. Also,
Speaker 4: we've talked about this on the show. You know, we
Speaker 4: do this thing called the luck Rankings at Action that
Speaker 4: sort of takes the noise out of all the games
Speaker 4: and tells you what the expected score would have been
Speaker 4: based on the stats and if you didn't have the
Speaker 4: flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when
Speaker 4: there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that
Speaker 4: has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky
Speaker 4: in the Steelers in the and the Broncos. So we
Speaker 4: like the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Here, okay, a game every week. I want you to
Speaker 2: teach me and the audience a lesson. I don't get
Speaker 2: the number. So the Lions go to overtime. That's not good. Generally,
Speaker 2: I stay away for teams that go to overtime. You know,
Speaker 2: seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
Speaker 2: his best game as a pro. This line is seven
Speaker 2: and a half. I still think without Poka Nakua and
Speaker 2: three backup offensive linemen. The Rams moved the ball up
Speaker 2: and down the field in the second half, did everything
Speaker 2: they wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higby.
Speaker 2: Their tight end is out. They were It was just
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups. I think
Speaker 2: of up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers.
Speaker 2: I don't understand the number. You know to me before,
Speaker 2: Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half? What's
Speaker 2: the side here?
Speaker 4: Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
Speaker 4: power ratings, should be bigger favorites, Like I love the
Speaker 4: Lions in this spot, and that is a massive number
Speaker 4: to that it is as quarterback in Baker it is. Well,
Speaker 4: here's the thing. I think that there's a couple of
Speaker 4: things going on. Number One, on the Buck side, they
Speaker 4: are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that
Speaker 4: opening game, right, But you were great against a rebuilding team,
Speaker 4: and the expectations for the Bucks for a lot of
Speaker 4: people were kind of low, and from a public point
Speaker 4: of view, they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable.
Speaker 4: But he played against the team with a defensive line
Speaker 4: that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that
Speaker 4: doesn't have great defensive backs, so he could kind of
Speaker 4: have his way. The Rams are like their game plan,
Speaker 4: which they had five months to build coming off a
Speaker 4: playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were
Speaker 4: still losing seventeen to three, and they needed a couple
Speaker 4: penalties to get themselves back in a position. And yes,
Speaker 4: they were moving the ball up and down the field
Speaker 4: because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really
Speaker 4: passing the ball and what they did the Rams was brilliant.
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford one step drop first rethrow. Aden Hutchinson was
Speaker 4: in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford
Speaker 4: was throwing it with after about a second and a
Speaker 4: half right. Baker is not that kind of player. Baker
Speaker 4: is not as sort of efficient with when he drops
Speaker 4: back and getting to his first receiver. And I think
Speaker 4: the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they
Speaker 4: are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell
Speaker 4: is the best coach against the spread the past five years.
Speaker 4: Jared Goff twenty six and nine against the spread indoors
Speaker 4: like this is a. This is a really good team.
Speaker 4: I think this is the second best roster in the NFC.
Speaker 4: You could argue the Niners are the best. The line
Speaker 4: showed something physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
Speaker 4: It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
Speaker 4: for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
Speaker 4: like the Lions here. I think they are gonna blow
Speaker 4: this team away.
Speaker 2: Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
Speaker 2: a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
Speaker 2: egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
Speaker 2: with the Giants in Washington, So what say you?
Speaker 4: Well, look, I do like another favorite. It's a little
Speaker 4: choky for me, But I do like the Cowboys against
Speaker 4: the Saints. I think you know Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott,
Speaker 4: they are juggernauts during the regular season, they are juggernauts
Speaker 4: as big favorites at home. I am not a fan
Speaker 4: of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina
Speaker 4: team and got in the exact right position. But Dak
Speaker 4: is a favorite at home fifteen to nine against the spread.
Speaker 2: H he's a good yeah.
Speaker 4: Past three years as a favorite of six or more
Speaker 4: in his career thirty one, thirteen and one.
Speaker 2: That's sev.
Speaker 4: Right, Like he's just great in this spot. And so
Speaker 4: I like to I am on the side of the
Speaker 4: cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting a
Speaker 4: good number. Here's the game that a lot of wise
Speaker 4: guys have been talking about and has had one of
Speaker 4: the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to my stomach,
Speaker 4: But we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2: What if Malik Willis plays.
Speaker 4: I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
Speaker 4: but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
Speaker 4: this game was at three and a half. It went
Speaker 4: down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
Speaker 4: and a half. That is not the squares coming in
Speaker 4: and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
Speaker 4: coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
Speaker 4: couple of things. One the swing. The Packers were in
Speaker 4: what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
Speaker 4: set before last week's games. The Packers were four and
Speaker 4: a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
Speaker 4: three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
Speaker 4: And the way that guy has figured this out is
Speaker 4: they take how much better is he than his backup?
Speaker 4: It's not just about what would the line be if
Speaker 4: he's not playing, it's what would the line be if
Speaker 4: his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
Speaker 4: as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
Speaker 4: of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
Speaker 4: think there was a little bit of inflation in the
Speaker 4: way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
Speaker 4: which is why I got that down. But also there
Speaker 4: are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
Speaker 4: if he knows anybody, it's the Colts.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: For the past couple of years, he's had to prepare
Speaker 4: for the Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in
Speaker 4: their first game fift against the spread the past three seasons.
Speaker 4: There is some sort of overreaction in the market that
Speaker 4: it offers a little bit of value. And then just
Speaker 4: look on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is
Speaker 4: in trouble. They were not great this past week against
Speaker 4: the Texans. They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and
Speaker 4: their twenty five points or twenty five minutes of possession.
Speaker 4: The other team that this applies to from the past
Speaker 4: week the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at.
Speaker 4: Matt Lafleur. I just said Dan Campbell best coach past
Speaker 4: five years against spread. Matt Lafleur second best spread against
Speaker 4: the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are
Speaker 4: leading people to bet the packers. To hold your nose,
Speaker 4: bet the number kind of thing. If you can get
Speaker 4: the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 2: Milman c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: He's an Oxford, Mississippi, now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson.
Speaker 2: So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
Speaker 2: I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
Speaker 2: bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 4: I can validate that I did have a bunch of
Speaker 4: bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
Speaker 4: got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
Speaker 4: us were at Wright's house hanging out. And you know
Speaker 4: you've interviewed right. He is the quintessential Southern personality. Great
Speaker 4: voice drips accent like, and he is a Mississippian and
Speaker 4: he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out
Speaker 4: his house and starts with barbecue dinner, and then it's
Speaker 4: a few drinks, and then it's a few more drinks,
Speaker 4: and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting
Speaker 4: in the same place, and it's beautiful outside and we're
Speaker 4: sitting on bourbons. And I get back to my hotel
Speaker 4: and you know how in hotels, like there's eight different
Speaker 4: lights and eight different lights switching. Yeah, you're not used
Speaker 4: to like the layout, right, maddening. And so when I
Speaker 4: take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like I can't
Speaker 4: see anything. I need to feel the room. And I
Speaker 4: realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned
Speaker 4: off all the lights. So I had to get like
Speaker 4: nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found
Speaker 4: the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch
Speaker 4: for the light behind the TV, found the light switch
Speaker 4: for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the
Speaker 4: desk lights, the the side table lights by the bed.
Speaker 4: Could not find the light switch for the overhead light,
Speaker 4: Like I'm in the wall, cannot find out. I go
Speaker 4: back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them
Speaker 4: up and down, cannot find it. I had to do
Speaker 4: the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like,
Speaker 4: I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm
Speaker 4: not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this. In the morning,
Speaker 4: I cannot find the light switch for my overhead light,
Speaker 4: and he goes, Okay, what do you need to do.
Speaker 4: I'm like, do you have any idea where the light
Speaker 4: switches are in my room? He goes, what room are
Speaker 4: you in? I go three twenty five? He goes, all right,
Speaker 4: let me think about it. He goes now, and I
Speaker 4: don't have anything down here that maps it. I was
Speaker 4: about to say to him again, it's after midnight. There's
Speaker 4: only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but
Speaker 4: I'm about to see him. Any chance you can come
Speaker 4: up to my room and check out with the lights aar.
Speaker 4: And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
Speaker 4: that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say.
Speaker 4: After midnight, see where God work? In the front desk.
Speaker 4: I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
Speaker 4: it out. I put the phone down and I say
Speaker 4: to myself, I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have
Speaker 4: to sleep with the light on, like I don't know
Speaker 4: what else to do. And then I gave myself.
Speaker 2: A newt Rockney.
Speaker 4: I'm like, Milman, you're going to find this light switch.
Speaker 4: You can find this light switch. Again, I'm hands on
Speaker 4: the wall, feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get
Speaker 4: to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat.
Speaker 4: It looks like the thermostat found the light switch, turn
Speaker 4: it off. Felt full relief. Tripped on my way to
Speaker 4: the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I
Speaker 4: did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody
Speaker 4: on the way.
Speaker 2: And that's that would have been a woman at the
Speaker 2: front desk. That's a lawsuit. Yeah, I come to my room. Good,
Speaker 2: ye ever, burn spread clearly, it's so good. I cannot
Speaker 2: find a light switch. All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Speaker 2: Good see anybody.
Speaker 4: Good seeing you too, brother, I'll see you later.
Speaker 2: The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
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