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Speaker 2: let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games

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Speaker 2: are insane. I mean you had over seven hundred yards

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Speaker 2: of offense tonight, over five hundred passing yards between the

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Speaker 2: Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff about

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Speaker 2: five and a half yards of play if you avered

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Speaker 2: the two teams. Let's see forty six first downs and

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Speaker 2: no fumbles. Each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession

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Speaker 2: was even. First of all, Sean McVay and Matt Stafford

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Speaker 2: and Cooper Cup. No Puka Nakua, he got hurt. Both

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Speaker 2: your offensive tackles are out makeshift offensive line to go

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Speaker 2: into Detroit Sunday night football against the super Bowl level

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Speaker 2: team in Detroit, and really I thought they had the

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Speaker 2: game one and regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper

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Speaker 2: Cup and Sean McVay, who's a rock star. And in

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Speaker 2: the end though I felt like Detroit when it went

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Speaker 2: to overtime, I'm like, Okay, now it's Detroit's game. The

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Speaker 2: Rams look tired sometimes at Chris Collinsworth made a great point,

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Speaker 2: you're not really built in week one to go to

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Speaker 2: overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just

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Speaker 2: only so much. I don't know who. I don't have

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Speaker 2: the betting lines next week, but I mean the Rams

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Speaker 2: and the Lions. They if they were a little off

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Speaker 2: next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is

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Speaker 2: the Rams. I mean, I wrote these numbers down. At

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Speaker 2: one point they had a twenty eight to twelve first

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Speaker 2: down advantage on the road, four hundred yards, three hundred

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Speaker 2: passing yard, dominating time of possession, and a seventy eight

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Speaker 2: to forty five total play advantage at one point in

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Speaker 2: this game. But credit a very deep, now experienced Lions team,

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Speaker 2: like they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay

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Speaker 2: is still young, the Rams are actually pretty young. San

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Speaker 2: Francisco is older, but the Detroit's got a veteran club

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Speaker 2: here and now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson

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Speaker 2: and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a

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Speaker 2: team like the Rams gave it everything they had, but

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Speaker 2: they they looked really shot in overtime, and to the

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Speaker 2: Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them.

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Speaker 2: They didn't f around at all. They went right at

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Speaker 2: the Rams interior D line and it worked. I think

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Speaker 2: one of the things I'm always taken by is how

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Speaker 2: good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good.

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Speaker 2: But I've said this before, if Matt Stafford and the Rams.

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Speaker 2: And remember what you saw from the Rams Night's impressive.

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Speaker 2: Poka Nakool will be back, They'll have both their offensive tackles,

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Speaker 2: their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be

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Speaker 2: a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side.

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Speaker 2: I mean they got two rookies starting on that defensive front.

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Speaker 2: Give those guys twelve to fifteen games. This Ram team

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Speaker 2: by the end of the year, you don't want any

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Speaker 2: part of This is a really good team. The difference

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Speaker 2: is the Lions are supposed to be good now and

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Speaker 2: they got out played for big chunks of this football game.

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Speaker 2: One of the things I worry about with the Lions

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Speaker 2: is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth,

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Speaker 2: so they got to keep amor On Saint Brown healthy.

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Speaker 2: They don't have a lot of depth there, and the

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Speaker 2: Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're

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Speaker 2: a better team in the back end. Rams, and maybe

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Speaker 2: it's just the Rams Cooper Cup can do that. Rams

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Speaker 2: kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that

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Speaker 2: football game. Again, the Rams had a seventy eight to

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Speaker 2: forty five play advantage at one point, and we're dominating

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Speaker 2: time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit

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Speaker 2: I didn't think played particularly well in the second half

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Speaker 2: and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant.

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Speaker 2: A heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on

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Speaker 2: the road, a great team on Sunday night football, and

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Speaker 2: you lose, that's a long flight back to LA But

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Speaker 2: I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams,

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Speaker 2: two teams that could meet again in the NFC Championship.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Would not be surprised

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Speaker 2: in the least. You know the other thing, the Rams,

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Speaker 2: and I wouldn't call this a problem. It's fascinating. So

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford?

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Speaker 2: Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight.

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Speaker 2: He went thirty four for forty nine for three hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventeen yards and a touchdown, the pass rush in

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Speaker 2: his face. In the second half, he went eighteen to

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Speaker 2: twenty three for two hundred yards, and again he's under dress.

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket, And I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: there watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the

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Speaker 2: Rams for the next couple of years, in the draft,

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Speaker 2: why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are

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Speaker 2: you going to get in the draft that's as good

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Speaker 2: as this guy. I know he's older, but when I

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Speaker 2: watched him tonight on the road pass rush, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higbee his

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Speaker 2: top tight end. He's banged up, he didn't have Pooka Nakua,

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Speaker 2: he didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic.

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Speaker 2: You're not going to face many pass rushes, certainly tonight.

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Speaker 2: You're not going to face many environments in this league

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Speaker 2: harder than that. And this guy's eighteen for twenty three

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Speaker 2: in the second half. So you know, I was sitting

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Speaker 2: as I watched the game, and I'm thinking, what I mean, move.

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Speaker 2: He's never been a big mover. He moves well enough

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Speaker 2: in the pocket, his arm's great. I mean, he's clearly

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Speaker 2: going a thousand miles an hour cognitively. Upstairs, he's got

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Speaker 2: an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. Now

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Speaker 2: they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in

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Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off.

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Speaker 2: I think he was in Tampa at one point. He

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Speaker 2: had a huge play tonight. And I'm just saying, I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young.

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Speaker 2: Stafford's the old guy.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know.

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Speaker 2: If I draft a quarterback and find the Rams, I

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Speaker 2: would definitely draft to tackle. Robin Havenstein died in play

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Speaker 2: the night right tackle he's getting up there, and I

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Speaker 2: would get another wide receiver. But I mean, last year,

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Speaker 2: five of their six top picks or defense, so there's

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Speaker 2: no reason you know they they are close. I think

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Speaker 2: they could get to the super Bowl. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if they as good as Kansas City. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if there's good as Baltimore. I don't know, but they're

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Speaker 2: certainly in a group of four or five teams that

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Speaker 2: could get there, five or six teams maybe. So I

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Speaker 2: just you're watching Stafford. I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't

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Speaker 2: look close to retirement. He didn't look close. Only one

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Speaker 2: team in the AFC East did not win, the New

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Speaker 2: York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing, and I

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Speaker 2: understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one

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Speaker 2: year the Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball

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Speaker 2: at will on the Steelers defense. It was a complete blowout.

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Speaker 2: You know, you face the Andy Reids and you're you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look at what Sean mcvayh and Stafford did

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Speaker 2: in a losing effort, missing multiple starters Like these offensive

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Speaker 2: coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak

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Speaker 2: looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was

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Speaker 2: on the field was thirty eight minutes to nineteen. That's embarrassing.

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Speaker 2: That's what Will Levice would produce. The first downs when

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Speaker 2: Aaron was on the field, Jets had a twenty five

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Speaker 2: to eleven deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense.

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Speaker 2: This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime

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Speaker 2: off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you

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Speaker 2: can trust and Bresall I thought the old line was fine.

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Speaker 2: Aaron only sacked one time. They were fine that this

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Speaker 2: wasn't Aaron Rodgers running for his life. You know, let's

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Speaker 2: just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not

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Speaker 2: in his prime. He's not as big, strong an athletic

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Speaker 2: as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He's not

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Speaker 2: as he doesn't move like a Kyler, Murray Lamar or

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes. And I watched them tonight and I think

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Speaker 2: we have overvalued how good Aaron Rodgers is now. It's

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Speaker 2: going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They

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Speaker 2: faced Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Kobe Brissett

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Speaker 2: in New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the

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Speaker 2: Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really

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Speaker 2: good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the

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Speaker 2: Jets defense is not going to face this team. But

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Speaker 2: I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws

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Speaker 2: a really pretty ball. Esthetically, it's fun to watch. It's

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Speaker 2: like that first big drive was great, but the only

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Speaker 2: other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when

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Speaker 2: the Niners' safeties were playing catch up because they paused.

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Speaker 2: Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go

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Speaker 2: into detail, but I always feel like He loves the

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Speaker 2: free ball because even if he throws a pick, it

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Speaker 2: doesn't count. So he gets really hyper aggressive on the

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Speaker 2: free ball and more aggressive than he is normally. Loves

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Speaker 2: to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's

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Speaker 2: reluctant to do in my opinion, in other parts of

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Speaker 2: the game. So I just I look at that offense

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Speaker 2: and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend

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Speaker 2: plays like he used to. You know, they've got one receiver,

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Speaker 2: I like, Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the

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Speaker 2: first half. The tight ends are irrelevant, and Breese Hall's good.

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Speaker 2: But this is not a high powered offense. You've got

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Speaker 2: a defensive head coach, a quarterback passed his prime, and

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Speaker 2: Nt Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up.

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Speaker 2: Miami's offense is going to be better all year because

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Speaker 2: of Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's

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Speaker 2: the third best offense in their division. Let's be totally.

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Speaker 2: It's not a Houston, it's not Kansas City. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on

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Speaker 2: this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So and that's

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Speaker 2: just it's not the Rams or the Niners. On the

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Speaker 2: other side, I don't think it's the Lions. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense.

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Speaker 2: It's not Dallas. After week one, you know it's not

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Speaker 2: a top ten offense. So you're going to have to

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Speaker 2: rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to

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Speaker 2: the defense. They got pushed around Jesus Jordan Mason. They

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Speaker 2: had one hundred and eighty yards rushing. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to. Now,

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Speaker 2: again it's Shanahan, it's the opener, but the San Francisco

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers offensive line is the weakness of the team,

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Speaker 2: and with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp,

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Speaker 2: that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring.

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Speaker 2: I thought this was going to be played between the thirties.

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Speaker 2: I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up

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Speaker 2: chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to.

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Speaker 2: It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could

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Speaker 2: run it with Deebo or Jordan Mason. It was Kittle,

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Speaker 2: it was Ayuk, I mean he dropped a touchdown. They

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Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted to for most of this game.

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Speaker 2: And again now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nicks.

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Speaker 2: It's not the same. I mean the Jets defense. In fact,

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Speaker 2: you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped

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Speaker 2: the following week because the Niners are so physical. I

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Speaker 2: think the Jets coming back were kind of physically humiliated

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Speaker 2: in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think

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Speaker 2: it would.

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Speaker 1: Look like that.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think it would look like that. I thought

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Speaker 2: this thing had twenty three twenty written all over it.

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Speaker 2: I cannot believe what the Niners offensive line did. It

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Speaker 2: was chunk plays six eight eleven, six eight eleven.

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Speaker 1: It was easy.

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Speaker 2: It was just and they weren't doing a lot of tricks,

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Speaker 2: you know. I mean, the Rams and the Niners use

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Speaker 2: a lot of motion. I never felt Miami does as well.

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Speaker 2: I didn't feel it was terribly deceptive tonight. I didn't think.

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Speaker 2: I thought the Niners just kind of rare back, ran

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Speaker 2: to the perimeter and did whatever they wanted to outside

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Speaker 2: the tackles. It was easy stuff. Brock pretty I mean,

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Speaker 2: he wasn't squeezing the ball into tight windows. Jennings Debo

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Speaker 2: people were open. So this wasn't a very resilient effort

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Speaker 2: by the Jets. I take copious notes. You know, one

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Speaker 2: point twenty three to seven, Aaron gets picked. That's twenty

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Speaker 2: six to seven the free play. But you know Aaron's

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Speaker 2: a master at that. I guess the best news for

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Speaker 2: the Jets the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably.

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Speaker 2: But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to

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Speaker 2: point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would

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Speaker 2: be great tonight, flying cross country BOSA against an old

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Speaker 2: Tyron Smith, Like I thought it would be choppy. The

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Speaker 2: Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Reddick's absence.

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Speaker 2: That was a weak effort. That was a non competitive effort.

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Speaker 2: Jesus thirty eight to nineteen minutes time of possession when

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers were on the field. That's an ass kicking.

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Speaker 2: That's like, you're not competitive, You're not extending drives at all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it

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Speaker 2: without Christian McCaffrey, who is the engine to this offense.

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Speaker 2: One hundred and eighty plus rushing yards, but no Christian

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey wide open receivers twenty five to eleven first down

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Speaker 2: edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had

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Speaker 2: eight straight scoring drives. I you can Trent Williams held

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Speaker 2: out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives. That's

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Speaker 2: like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's Week one. It's not like you have a litany

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Speaker 2: of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives like Robert Salah that

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Speaker 2: that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is this

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Speaker 2: is your culture, this is your team. I mean, would

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Speaker 2: you have guessed that, I mean McCatty once you heard

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey wasn't gonna play. If I said to you, they'll

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Speaker 2: score in eight straight scoring drives, you would have said, oh,

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Speaker 2: come on, you're an Aaron Rodgers hater. That's bad. TD

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Speaker 2: All Right, Former NFL Scout three and out podcaster John

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Speaker 2: Middelkoff of the Volume Week one reaction presented by Uber

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Speaker 2: Eats get almost almost anything for Game Day. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's start with Tom Brady's debut. Good God, Cleveland a disaster.

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Speaker 2: You know, I was sitting there thinking as I'm watching

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Speaker 2: that game, if you're going to sign a contract to

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Speaker 2: a quarterback, to a guaranteed contract, which you you know

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins got one and and DeShawn Watson. I not

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Speaker 2: only want a great player, I want a great leader.

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Speaker 2: I want great health, I want an ascending player. He's

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Speaker 2: virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better

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Speaker 2: quarterback today, John than Deshaun Watson. I mean, Baker was

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Speaker 2: a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like,

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Speaker 2: we know it's not Stefanski. We know he's a really

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Speaker 2: bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: don't even know what Deshaun Watson is. I mean changing uniforms.

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Speaker 2: He's a bottom ten quarterback.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 1: As funny as I had on the Redskins or the

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Speaker 1: Commander's game on a little TV and I wrote down

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Speaker 1: about ten minutes before we jumped on, Baker's in a

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Speaker 1: different universe. Not just as a thrower, his touch, I

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Speaker 1: mean Deshaun's throwing balls into the stands constantly, but his swag,

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Speaker 1: the way he carries himself, the way his teammates, and

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Speaker 1: even as a playmaker. I mean it's not like Baker's

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Speaker 1: some elite athlete, but moving around. Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott

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Speaker 1: signed the same contract, essentially two hundred and thirty million

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Speaker 1: dollars guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has

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Speaker 1: character question marks and who has a short resume. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has

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Speaker 1: to go down immediately as one of the worst deals

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Speaker 1: in the history of pro sports. You look at Dak

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Speaker 1: has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player,

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Speaker 1: super smart guy, yeah, high character leader. Everyone that knows

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Speaker 1: him like him. Deshaun Watson. I was out on him

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Speaker 1: last year. Today, what an embarrassment? Where's the playmaking? Colin?

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Speaker 1: He doesn't make any play well.

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Speaker 2: And he was never a hyper athletic or he was

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Speaker 2: never a hyper accurate thrower. That was always the beat

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Speaker 2: on him. I can remember his first year, everybody liked him.

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Speaker 2: He would skip throws. He's not a pretty thrower, he's

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Speaker 2: not an easy thrower. Everything looks like it's a struggle downfield.

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Speaker 2: You know, he was a wildly dynamic athlete. You take

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Speaker 2: that out and I mean, he's no more athletic today

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Speaker 2: than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of

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Speaker 2: a b athlete and a b arm But I was

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Speaker 2: watching Daxon and I'm like, oh, Dak's a much much

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Speaker 2: better player than Deshaun Watson. And the thing about Dak,

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Speaker 2: Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults,

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Speaker 2: you do feel like he is the soul of the organization.

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Speaker 2: He's the soul for sure. Deshaun Watson, if you went

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Speaker 2: through that locker room and a half the guy asked

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Speaker 2: half the guys and you go, you could move off

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Speaker 2: the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think

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Speaker 2: desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You

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Speaker 2: can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about the Bears game. First of all,

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Speaker 2: the fact that they won a game and passed for

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Speaker 2: sixty four yards, so it was interesting. Belichick said something

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Speaker 2: last week. I took the Titans to win that game,

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Speaker 2: and basically I was on the right side. I felt

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Speaker 2: for almost the entire game. But Belichick said something this

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Speaker 2: week and I took it to heart. Belichick said, I

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Speaker 2: wasn't impressed. He was like ten for twenty. And I

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Speaker 2: went back and I text somebody who is I know

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Speaker 2: who's in the NFL who's been critical of him. And

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Speaker 2: the big question with Caleb is high school. In college,

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Speaker 2: he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy,

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Speaker 2: he can really get into the high grass. And if

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Speaker 2: you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in

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Speaker 2: his first three years and then Andy would pull him

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Speaker 2: back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done

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Speaker 2: that in his career where it's so easy for Mahomes

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Speaker 2: and Stafford they start side arming two out of three throws,

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Speaker 2: the mechanics get sloppy, and I thought with Caleb, he's

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Speaker 2: got a defensive coach, So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at

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Speaker 2: one point had an offensive coordinator he really connected with.

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Speaker 2: Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is

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Speaker 2: when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on

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Speaker 2: the fairway? Because I thought today he struggled at times

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Speaker 2: to see things. You know, I thought his decision making

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Speaker 2: late in the game and not making mistakes and taking

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Speaker 2: what was given for him was fine. But I mean

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Speaker 2: all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good

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Speaker 2: as any bud and he threw two picks. What did

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Speaker 2: you make of Caleb overall today?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think if you go back to Bill's comments,

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Speaker 1: He's like, listen, I'm not being a hater, but I

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Speaker 1: don't put anything in the preseason. And when you're inaccurate

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Speaker 1: in the preseason. Do you know what hit me today?

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Speaker 1: Watching about ten games in the morning on different TVs

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Speaker 1: and screens. You know how the NBA. Once the playoffs start,

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Speaker 1: You're like, what we just witnessed for the last six

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Speaker 1: months doesn't even look like the same sport. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of the preseason. I mean, the first ten minutes of

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Speaker 1: like ten am to like ten thirty, You're watching the

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Speaker 1: Steeler game, the Houston Indie game. Guys are flying around.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right, So,

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00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 1: the defensive game plans. All these defensive coordinators, even the

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Speaker 1: average ones, are making one and a half two million dollars.

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Speaker 1: They're paid a lot of money to do this. The

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Speaker 1: physicality of the game rams up the question on Caleb

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Speaker 1: he is going to be able to make spectacular throws

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Speaker 1: though he wasn't doing that today. He was I think

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Speaker 1: he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot.

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Speaker 1: But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket,

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Speaker 1: whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw.

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Speaker 1: And it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on

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Speaker 1: him fast. Now. The tight Jeffrey Simmons is probably one

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Speaker 1: of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know

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Speaker 1: that much about because he plays for the Titans. You

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Speaker 1: put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something.

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00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 1: He'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass

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Speaker 1: hard and he was he was thrown off and will

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Speaker 1: Levis bailed their team out. Because if will Levis does

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Speaker 1: n't self implode, the Titans not only easily should have covered,

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Speaker 1: they should win the game. I mean, he looked like

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones there, but Caleb was He was atrocious today.

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Speaker 1: I mean he really was, which is fair because this

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Speaker 1: is what Bill and Bill's an old school guy, Sean Payton's,

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Speaker 1: all these guys that come from the eighties, the nineties,

426
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,239
Speaker 1: the Bill Parcells. They hate hype, you know you and

427
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: I like some hype, Yeah, I enjoy it. Those guys

428
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 1: do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once

429
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 1: you kick off week one, and all that hype was

430
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: meaningless today if on third and seven he's skipping a

431
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 1: ball and he was, and it unraveled fast. The arm strength,

432
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said,

433
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: it gets back to Jayden Daniels. Beside his running didn't

434
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: look great. Bo Nicks, who has an offensive play caller now,

435
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 1: he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot

436
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: of the time. Yeah, it's hard. This is really really.

437
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 1: This is why I've said pump the breaks, especially on

438
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright

439
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: picked him to win the Super Bowl. A lot of

440
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: people are hot, you know, he threw that out. I

441
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 1: don't know if he actually picked. But my point is

442
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 1: he could make serious strides as the year goes on

443
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: and they could win seven games. This is really Look

444
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: at Sam Darnolly, He's been the league for like seven years.

445
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 1: Has taken him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no,

446
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 1: it's not easy.

447
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: No, I said this. I did a piece for Fox

448
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 2: Sunday and I said, be careful on Caleb Williams. This

449
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: is one of the best divisions. This is a franchise

450
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 2: that ran Trubisky out of town and he made the

451
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: playoffs twice with Aaron Rodgers and Stafford in their prime.

452
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 2: This media is rough, the weather gets rough by Thanksgiving.

453
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: If they win eight games and he gets better, take it.

454
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 2: If you could take that today and say he's significantly better,

455
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 2: we win at games we finished third, take it, because

456
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: what success looks like to Dak is not what success

457
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew

458
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 2: up the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now,

459
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: that's still really hard. Yeah, it's still really hard. But

460
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 2: quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a

461
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 2: run centric league. It's a sixty forty sixty two to

462
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: thirty eight passing league. And I mean it's even Gino Smith,

463
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 2: a veteran today his best play was a run. Like

464
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: this stuff is hard, and I think we just have

465
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I

466
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: thought bow Nicks had a little rhythm at one point

467
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 2: in the game where he felt like I felt like

468
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 2: bow seeing the game. It wasn't doing much, but he

469
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 2: was seeing the game, he was seeing the field, and

470
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all

471
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 2: twenty four points today were scored by defense and special teams.

472
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 2: Will Levis to me, is done. He's baked. I don't

473
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't

474
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 2: see the field. Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to

475
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 2: be fine, But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And

476
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 2: I think the other thing is if you opened up

477
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: on the road, it's different, dude. He opened up in Chicago.

478
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: The weather was perfect, that a buddy at the game,

479
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: like there was a lot of fricking heat on Caleb today,

480
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 2: Like a.

481
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: Lot of pressure on Caleb. Well, that's where if you

482
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: you know, if you take bo Nicks, you take Caleb.

483
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: Bo Nix is in Seattle where the place is really

484
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: loud and he can barely hear himself. Think Caleb gets

485
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: a pretty BP fastball of twelve o'clock kickoff in Chicago.

486
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 1: I'm a huge believer in two things. For young people,

487
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: whether you're a professional athlete or just a normal person

488
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: in society, confidence can be lost really quickly, and it

489
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: can be hard to gain. I would say, you know

490
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: in your early twenties and when you are everyone's looking

491
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: at you. When you start losing confidence, it can spiral

492
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 1: and the only thing you ever have to go back

493
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: on is your experience. But as a young player, you

494
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: don't have any experience. Like Geno today, you're watching early on,

495
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: You're like gott Seattle looks weird, he's been through it.

496
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 1: Dak today. All these guys have so much experience that

497
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 1: they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak

498
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: out over a bad quarter. And you just watched Caleb.

499
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: You just felt it snowballing, and what does he have

500
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: to go back on?

501
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 2: Right?

502
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 1: Nothing? And it's not like he can look over there

503
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 1: and Bill Walsh's on the sideline and be like, listen,

504
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: I've been doing this for thirty years, won a couple

505
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: Super Bowls. I'm gonna call three plays, get you a

506
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: couple of layups. And they were just they were very scattered. Yes,

507
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: they felt very I mean there was one point in

508
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 1: time in that game before Will Levis just pooped down

509
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 1: his own leg where You're like, are they gonna lose

510
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: twenty eight to ten? Yeah, and just be the number

511
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears

512
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think,

513
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: because that I really think that you can defensive turnovers,

514
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: like if they're playing a top, if they're playing just

515
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,199
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield or Ge they have blown out, they get killed.

516
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean they get killed.

517
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: And I'm not jumping on Caleb here, which I would

518
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: imagine is going to happen a lot this week. I

519
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: just think everyone this is so much more difficult at

520
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: the NFL level than college, even if you're playing at

521
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: a high level of college and Caleb was playing a

522
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: lot of good teams in college. But the level of athlete,

523
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: the level of speed, he just did the rhythm. I mean,

524
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: it was just it was glaring.

525
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 2: I want to talk about the Broncos and Seahawks, because

526
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 2: again I thought Bo had his moments. I'm watching Seattle

527
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 2: and I say this respectively to Pete Carroll. I think

528
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,239
Speaker 2: Seattle has elite talent. I just don't think people know

529
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 2: the players. But Walker, they're wide receivers. They have tremendous

530
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: young corners they got to consider to pass rush. They

531
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: got the Murphy kid in the draft, the top defensive tackle.

532
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: A fan left today. It's Gino is what he is, like,

533
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 2: he's a really solid he's a great story. He is

534
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 2: what he is. He's not gonna lose you a lot

535
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 2: of games. He's not gonna win you a lot of games.

536
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: But I'm watching that game today and Sean Payton coached

537
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: his ass off for a half. He got them. I

538
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: mean a lot of this was Seattle do it getting safeties,

539
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: and it was quirky, and then all of a sudden,

540
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 2: by the second half, you're like, Okay, now we're off script,

541
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 2: and now Bo Nicks is a rookie quarterback, and he

542
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 2: just you know, that's the difference between a veteran dak

543
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 2: in the second half and bow Knicks in the second half.

544
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: Both's like, Okay, now they adjusted, So I got the

545
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 2: everything on the script. I figured out. Now it's all

546
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 2: off script, and I'm watching that Seattle team. John, But

547
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: I think you called him one of the surprise teams.

548
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore.

549
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: I think they are really talented. They really they fly

550
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: around the field defensively.

551
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: I actually was kind of on the other side, well,

552
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: their talent. My issue with them is they've been they

553
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: were poorly coached, but they've been winning nine games. You know,

554
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: it's not like they've been winning five and a good division. Yeah,

555
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: that's why I'm fanseled. How do they go from? Do

556
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: you think they could win eleven? I still think their

557
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: offensive line has some question mark Today safety got punked.

558
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker,

559
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: there's a chance at the end of the year he's

560
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: a top five running back. How about the catch Lockett

561
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: made to seal the game. He's their third wide receiver.

562
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: And he's been there Jesus, he's been great for ten years.

563
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: He's got to be one of the more underappreciated players

564
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: of his generation. Might not even be close. I think

565
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,239
Speaker 1: I could play for my team any day now. If

566
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: their defense is better, they still might be a nine

567
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: ish win team. But could they beat the forty nine

568
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,719
Speaker 1: ers in again, because they haven't beat the forty nine

569
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: ers in five games now, Gina, they play him two

570
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: years ago in the playoffs now, so they if they

571
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: can play at a more physical brand. My question marks

572
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: you never know what the coordinator going to a head coach.

573
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,479
Speaker 1: He's young. I think he's thirty seven years old. And

574
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who

575
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: was to bors right him, had never coached in the NFL.

576
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 1: They showed his resume to day. He was a Sioux

577
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: Falls not that long ago. It's a pretty quick jump.

578
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: Now he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their

579
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: coaching staff might just be better. I saw watch John

580
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: Schnyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You

581
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: can tell he thinks they got something. Not he knows

582
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 1: their team is talented, but like he thinks the coaching

583
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: staff's pretty good. So like can they beat McVeigh and Kyle,

584
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: can they split? Can they go to and two? Because

585
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: if they can, then maybe they're not nine and eight,

586
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: they're ten and seven and they're like the six or

587
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: seven seed. I would say that's possible. I'm not going

588
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: to overreact to playing Denver who. It's just you could

589
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: tell they're a little talent devision still with with a

590
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. But yeah, I mean it's hard not to.

591
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: He's an easy guy to root for. G know's an

592
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday

593
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: night Monday Night games and Tom Brady calling it if

594
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: you're both four and one or however the schedule and

595
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners, are

596
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: you I'm not picking Gino Smith Homer Away?

597
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right? Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman CEO,

598
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 2: Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I was

599
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 2: a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two and one.

600
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: So I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean I

601
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: was wrong on the Carolina side, but other than that,

602
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: I felt pretty good about it. I could go in

603
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: an order of importance, but I was thinking about this.

604
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 2: I am above going in order. I just give you

605
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 2: my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start

606
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: with a team that is this close to beating Kansas

607
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: City Arrowhead, and I think the Chiefs are a better

608
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think

609
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly

610
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: well coached. I mean the fact that the only way

611
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.

612
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: They beat them at the only game. I think Baltimore's

613
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 2: really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times

614
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.

615
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think

616
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: Baltimore's pissed. I'm gonna swallow the eight and a half

617
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: Sharper square. So it's square.

618
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 4: But you're not going to find a ton of guys who,

619
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 4: when they're doing this, are excited about betting the Raiders.

620
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 4: You mentioned Carolina, right, I was on Carolina last week too.

621
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: The wise guys will be on Carolina again this week

622
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 4: at six and a half point underdogs, in the same

623
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 4: way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started

624
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 4: at nine and a half got up to ten and

625
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 4: then was bet down to nine and a half, than nine,

626
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 4: and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer

627
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 4: to a number that I think at some point the

628
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 4: wise guys will come back in on Baltimore. But at

629
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 4: this big of a number, they're just betting the number,

630
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 4: And this early in the season, everything tells you that

631
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 4: you are playing against the over reaction. Right, everyone saw

632
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 4: the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a

633
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 4: toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive

634
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 4: game against the Chiefs team that looks like you can

635
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 4: break every rule of betting that exists in the universe. Right,

636
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: the Raiders people were high on. They got crushed and

637
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 4: they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Peers

638
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 4: made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the Athletic that

639
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 4: that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory,

640
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 4: it was the first time a coach had been down

641
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 4: in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted

642
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 4: in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls

643
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 4: that has been made in the past eight years. And

644
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 4: you could see him on camera. There's the videos of

645
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 4: him saying should I be going for this right now.

646
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 4: So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the

647
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 4: bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by

648
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 4: the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to

649
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 4: be on the Raiders.

650
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 2: So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against

651
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,

652
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as

653
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: good a the Niners. That's very hard to do back

654
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.

655
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're

656
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 2: great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,

657
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 2: tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.

658
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.

659
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 2: If they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth

660
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 2: place team in the history of the league. They've got

661
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 2: a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,

662
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 2: really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski

663
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just

664
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 2: he's operating at a different level. This was at six

665
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 2: at one point. I think I take the Vikings five

666
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 2: and a half sharper square.

667
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,439
Speaker 4: Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half,

668
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 4: they took them at six. They still like the Vikings.

669
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 4: I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in

670
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 4: this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanahan is

671
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 4: so good. You and I have talked about this, like,

672
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 4: he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It

673
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 4: actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And

674
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 4: he's also been very good on short weeks on the

675
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 4: road eight and two during his career, one of the

676
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 4: four best coaches in the past five years on short

677
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 4: weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,

678
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 4: I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot

679
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 4: more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.

680
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 4: You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was

681
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck

682
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams

683
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 4: that were excellent in one score games they played each

684
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 4: other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota, Brian

685
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 4: dave Ball wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more

686
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 4: credit as the best coach, right, and Kevin O'Connell had

687
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 4: a similar year and then last year did wonders when

688
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Daball's team is cratering

689
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: when their top quarterback goes down. Then we see what

690
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 4: happens last week. A bad quarterback for the Giants, a

691
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 4: historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a

692
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 4: Cinderella like first half ten for ten on his first

693
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 4: ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety nine yard touchdown

694
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 4: drive that ends with a fourth down pass like touchdown

695
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 4: pass to Jehin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach,

696
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 4: and I think that's another reason why the why these

697
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 4: guys are in their vikings.

698
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: So there's two things that I look at with the

699
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 2: Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game

700
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 2: and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, Like the Jets

701
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by

702
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That

703
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially

704
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in the league. For a

705
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: quarterback I don't think can play. I don't think Will

706
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 2: Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I

707
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on

708
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is

709
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 2: San Francisco makes everybody, So does Andy Reid and McVeigh.

710
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 2: They make a lot of people look bad. In the

711
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 2: week one, I think the Jets are actually a pretty

712
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 2: good football team. When this number got up to four.

713
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 2: Now I sound like such a square on this, but

714
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 2: four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four.

715
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want

716
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 2: to create force. They'd rather you be three to three

717
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: and a half. When the market has to go to four,

718
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 2: their signaling. Look, it is just a better team. This

719
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: started for the Jets for a better team. They're pissed.

720
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: I don't think Will Levis can play home Field's never

721
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 2: met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take

722
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 2: the Jets minus three and a half.

723
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 4: Well, otherwise, guys like the Titans and they're kind of

724
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 4: holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,

725
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 4: and that number four is really important, and I'm glad

726
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 4: you bring it up, and we'll do that. In the

727
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 4: last part of my soliloquy. Here the Jets had were

728
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 4: physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is

729
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: supposed to be their strength, as you noted, h straight

730
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 4: scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking

731
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 4: scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get

732
00:37:55,600 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 4: to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Callahan

733
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 4: showed last week that he can do something really interesting

734
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 4: with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective. You know,

735
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 4: Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach,

736
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: left the Browns this past season to go work with

737
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 4: his son revamp the Titans offensive line. The Titans defense

738
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 4: did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right

739
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 4: like the Bears were scoring on special teams and they

740
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 4: were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said,

741
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the

742
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 4: number here. The four is key. Teams that open at

743
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 4: four or higher at home in weeks one and two

744
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years. Teams

745
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 4: that opened at four or higher at home after losing

746
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 4: their last game against the spread, which the text with

747
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 4: the Titans did sixty four percent since twenty twenty one

748
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 4: more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated

749
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 4: on Monday night, and now of a defense that was

750
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 4: on the field for a ton of plays going back

751
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 4: short week to be against another really physical team. That's

752
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 4: what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than

753
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 4: twenty five minutes of possession in Week one six and

754
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 4: twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen

755
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 4: percent the jedal. So look, I'm with you, like, this

756
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 4: isn't going to be one of my five best plays

757
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 4: because I don't trust Will Levis. It's and it's it's

758
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 4: becoming clear in this league there is such a delta

759
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 4: between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not it's

760
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 4: becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite

761
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 4: all these numbers that go back, you're gonna have to

762
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 4: play the quarterback in some situations. And this, to me

763
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 4: is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They

764
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 4: bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.

765
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 2: I want to take Denver plus two and a half

766
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. And here's what, Thank god, I thought

767
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 2: it was a really tough spot for bow Knicks. In

768
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 2: the opener, loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.

769
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 2: You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's

770
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him

771
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.

772
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another

773
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 2: another ex player who I respect, tell me this week

774
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may

775
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,359
Speaker 2: not be the best year, two three, four, he's going

776
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 2: to have the best year. The rest of them have

777
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 2: defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been

778
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 2: good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I

779
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,720
Speaker 2: think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers, his dogs,

780
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper Square.

781
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 4: One, ding Ding Ding ding Ding. Wise guys love the Broncos.

782
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 4: Here's probably going to take a little piece of the

783
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 4: Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for

784
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 4: bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys they love Seattle.

785
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 4: They're really impressed with Seattle defense. So love Mike McDonald

786
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 4: and what he can do with that team. And I

787
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 4: think the Wise guys were also really impressed with how

788
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 4: much better the Broncos played last year this last week

789
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 4: as a team versus what they looked like a year ago.

790
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 4: And defensively true, but I think they were excited about

791
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 4: bo Nicks. And if you watch the game back and

792
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 4: we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from

793
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 4: professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks

794
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 4: recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he

795
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 4: was still getting to know the pace of the game.

796
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 4: They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked

797
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 4: the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically

798
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 4: made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.

799
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 4: Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot

800
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 4: of sentiment that this is the right side. The line

801
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 4: moved from three to two and a half, and I

802
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 4: will say you excited about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest

803
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 4: underdog coach possibly in the history of the game the

804
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: past twenty years.

805
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: For sure.

806
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 4: Not just great as an underdog, great as an underdog

807
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 4: winning outright, he is just as bad when he is

808
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 4: a favorite. Forty one twenty eight and one against spread

809
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: as a road dog in his career, thirty two forty

810
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 4: and two as a road favorite, so it's almost completely

811
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 4: flipped right. And when he opens as a favorite of

812
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 4: three or more on the road, thirty eight percent against

813
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 4: the spread, So I would say you're on the right side. Also,

814
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 4: we've talked about this on the show. You know, we

815
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 4: do this thing called the luck Rankings at Action that

816
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 4: sort of takes the noise out of all the games

817
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 4: and tells you what the expected score would have been

818
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 4: based on the stats and if you didn't have the

819
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 4: flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when

820
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 4: there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that

821
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 4: has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky

822
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 4: in the Steelers in the and the Broncos. So we

823
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 4: like the Broncos.

824
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 2: Here, okay, a game every week. I want you to

825
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: teach me and the audience a lesson. I don't get

826
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: the number. So the Lions go to overtime. That's not good. Generally,

827
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 2: I stay away for teams that go to overtime. You know,

828
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 2: seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played

829
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 2: his best game as a pro. This line is seven

830
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 2: and a half. I still think without Poka Nakua and

831
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 2: three backup offensive linemen. The Rams moved the ball up

832
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 2: and down the field in the second half, did everything

833
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,240
Speaker 2: they wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higby.

834
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: Their tight end is out. They were It was just

835
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups. I think

836
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 2: of up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers.

837
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 2: I don't understand the number. You know to me before,

838
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 2: Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half? What's

839
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: the side here?

840
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 4: Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of

841
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 4: power ratings, should be bigger favorites, Like I love the

842
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 4: Lions in this spot, and that is a massive number

843
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 4: to that it is as quarterback in Baker it is. Well,

844
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 4: here's the thing. I think that there's a couple of

845
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 4: things going on. Number One, on the Buck side, they

846
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 4: are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that

847
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 4: opening game, right, But you were great against a rebuilding team,

848
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 4: and the expectations for the Bucks for a lot of

849
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 4: people were kind of low, and from a public point

850
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 4: of view, they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable.

851
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,479
Speaker 4: But he played against the team with a defensive line

852
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 4: that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that

853
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 4: doesn't have great defensive backs, so he could kind of

854
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 4: have his way. The Rams are like their game plan,

855
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 4: which they had five months to build coming off a

856
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 4: playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were

857
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: still losing seventeen to three, and they needed a couple

858
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 4: penalties to get themselves back in a position. And yes,

859
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:01,320
Speaker 4: they were moving the ball up and down the field

860
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 4: because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really

861
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,760
Speaker 4: passing the ball and what they did the Rams was brilliant.

862
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford one step drop first rethrow. Aden Hutchinson was

863
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 4: in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford

864
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 4: was throwing it with after about a second and a

865
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 4: half right. Baker is not that kind of player. Baker

866
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 4: is not as sort of efficient with when he drops

867
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 4: back and getting to his first receiver. And I think

868
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 4: the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they

869
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 4: are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell

870
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 4: is the best coach against the spread the past five years.

871
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 4: Jared Goff twenty six and nine against the spread indoors

872
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 4: like this is a. This is a really good team.

873
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 4: I think this is the second best roster in the NFC.

874
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,959
Speaker 4: You could argue the Niners are the best. The line

875
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 4: showed something physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,

876
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 4: It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going

877
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 4: for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I

878
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 4: like the Lions here. I think they are gonna blow

879
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 4: this team away.

880
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 2: Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed

881
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 2: a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,

882
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 2: egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that

883
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 2: with the Giants in Washington, So what say you?

884
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 4: Well, look, I do like another favorite. It's a little

885
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 4: choky for me, But I do like the Cowboys against

886
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 4: the Saints. I think you know Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott,

887
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 4: they are juggernauts during the regular season, they are juggernauts

888
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 4: as big favorites at home. I am not a fan

889
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 4: of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina

890
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 4: team and got in the exact right position. But Dak

891
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 4: is a favorite at home fifteen to nine against the spread.

892
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 2: H he's a good yeah.

893
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 4: Past three years as a favorite of six or more

894
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 4: in his career thirty one, thirteen and one.

895
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 2: That's sev.

896
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 4: Right, Like he's just great in this spot. And so

897
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 4: I like to I am on the side of the

898
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 4: cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting a

899
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 4: good number. Here's the game that a lot of wise

900
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 4: guys have been talking about and has had one of

901
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 4: the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to my stomach,

902
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 4: But we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers.

903
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: What if Malik Willis plays.

904
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 4: I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,

905
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 4: but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,

906
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 4: this game was at three and a half. It went

907
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 4: down to three. Now there's some places where it's two

908
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 4: and a half. That is not the squares coming in

909
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 4: and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys

910
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: coming in. And like I think, I think there's a

911
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 4: couple of things. One the swing. The Packers were in

912
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 4: what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was

913
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 4: set before last week's games. The Packers were four and

914
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 4: a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US

915
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 4: three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.

916
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.

917
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 4: And the way that guy has figured this out is

918
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 4: they take how much better is he than his backup?

919
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 4: It's not just about what would the line be if

920
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 4: he's not playing, it's what would the line be if

921
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 4: his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good

922
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 4: as he is, is not an eight point swing kind

923
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,359
Speaker 4: of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they

924
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 4: think there was a little bit of inflation in the

925
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 4: way that they reopen the line from three and a half,

926
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,399
Speaker 4: which is why I got that down. But also there

927
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 4: are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,

928
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 4: if he knows anybody, it's the Colts.

929
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: Right.

930
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 4: For the past couple of years, he's had to prepare

931
00:48:56,400 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 4: for the Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in

932
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 4: their first game fift against the spread the past three seasons.

933
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,760
Speaker 4: There is some sort of overreaction in the market that

934
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 4: it offers a little bit of value. And then just

935
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 4: look on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is

936
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 4: in trouble. They were not great this past week against

937
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 4: the Texans. They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and

938
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 4: their twenty five points or twenty five minutes of possession.

939
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 4: The other team that this applies to from the past

940
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 4: week the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at.

941
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 4: Matt Lafleur. I just said Dan Campbell best coach past

942
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 4: five years against spread. Matt Lafleur second best spread against

943
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 4: the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are

944
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 4: leading people to bet the packers. To hold your nose,

945
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 4: bet the number kind of thing. If you can get

946
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 4: the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and

947
00:49:57,840 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 4: a half.

948
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: Milman c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.

949
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 2: He's an Oxford, Mississippi, now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson.

950
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 2: So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what

951
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 2: I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a

952
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 2: bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.

953
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 4: I can validate that I did have a bunch of

954
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 4: bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I

955
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 4: got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of

956
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 4: us were at Wright's house hanging out. And you know

957
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 4: you've interviewed right. He is the quintessential Southern personality. Great

958
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 4: voice drips accent like, and he is a Mississippian and

959
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out

960
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 4: his house and starts with barbecue dinner, and then it's

961
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 4: a few drinks, and then it's a few more drinks,

962
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 4: and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting

963
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 4: in the same place, and it's beautiful outside and we're

964
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,240
Speaker 4: sitting on bourbons. And I get back to my hotel

965
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 4: and you know how in hotels, like there's eight different

966
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 4: lights and eight different lights switching. Yeah, you're not used

967
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 4: to like the layout, right, maddening. And so when I

968
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 4: take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like I can't

969
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 4: see anything. I need to feel the room. And I

970
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 4: realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned

971
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 4: off all the lights. So I had to get like

972
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 4: nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found

973
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 4: the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch

974
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 4: for the light behind the TV, found the light switch

975
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 4: for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the

976
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 4: desk lights, the the side table lights by the bed.

977
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 4: Could not find the light switch for the overhead light,

978
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 4: Like I'm in the wall, cannot find out. I go

979
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 4: back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them

980
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 4: up and down, cannot find it. I had to do

981
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 4: the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like,

982
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 4: I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm

983
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 4: not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this. In the morning,

984
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 4: I cannot find the light switch for my overhead light,

985
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 4: and he goes, Okay, what do you need to do.

986
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 4: I'm like, do you have any idea where the light

987
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 4: switches are in my room? He goes, what room are

988
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 4: you in? I go three twenty five? He goes, all right,

989
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 4: let me think about it. He goes now, and I

990
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 4: don't have anything down here that maps it. I was

991
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,479
Speaker 4: about to say to him again, it's after midnight. There's

992
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 4: only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but

993
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 4: I'm about to see him. Any chance you can come

994
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 4: up to my room and check out with the lights aar.

995
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 4: And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,

996
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 4: that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say.

997
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 4: After midnight, see where God work? In the front desk.

998
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 4: I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure

999
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 4: it out. I put the phone down and I say

1000
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,400
Speaker 4: to myself, I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have

1001
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 4: to sleep with the light on, like I don't know

1002
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 4: what else to do. And then I gave myself.

1003
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 2: A newt Rockney.

1004
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 4: I'm like, Milman, you're going to find this light switch.

1005
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 4: You can find this light switch. Again, I'm hands on

1006
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 4: the wall, feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get

1007
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 4: to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat.

1008
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 4: It looks like the thermostat found the light switch, turn

1009
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 4: it off. Felt full relief. Tripped on my way to

1010
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 4: the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I

1011
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 4: did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody

1012
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 4: on the way.

1013
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 2: And that's that would have been a woman at the

1014
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 2: front desk. That's a lawsuit. Yeah, I come to my room. Good,

1015
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 2: ye ever, burn spread clearly, it's so good. I cannot

1016
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 2: find a light switch. All right, I'm gonna bounce back.

1017
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 2: Good see anybody.

1018
00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 4: Good seeing you too, brother, I'll see you later.

1019
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 2: The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed

1020
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:38,320
Speaker 2: the podcast, take a moment rate and review