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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleventh, to Washington, d C. Bloomber,

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Speaker 1: to Boston, Bloomberg twelve honors, to San Francisco Bloomberg to

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Speaker 1: the Country General one nine and around the globe the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio plus Aben Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance the morning. It is eight thirty on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. Economic Indicators brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to

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Speaker 1: change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer r I

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Speaker 1: A that's ready to listen, Call six six two eight

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Speaker 1: or visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Friday's jobs

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Speaker 1: report so shocky to the markets, and basically we've not

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Speaker 1: scheduled any or at least very many economic indicators this week.

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Speaker 1: You got a week to get over it. But we

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Speaker 1: are going to be hearing from Janet Yellen twelve thirty

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Speaker 1: today in Philadelphia before the World Affairs Council. She will

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Speaker 1: want presume layout her thinking about the jobs reported, what

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Speaker 1: that means for Federal Reserve monetary policy going forward. Before that,

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Speaker 1: we have had comments from Eric Rosen, Grid, President of

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Speaker 1: the Boston Fed, who said a rate increase should remain

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Speaker 1: on the table. They should continue to move rates up

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Speaker 1: in a cautious, gradual manner. And at nine o'clock this morning,

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Speaker 1: Tom here on Bloomberg Surveillance, I will be speaking with

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Fed Bank President Dennis Lockhart, will get his views

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Speaker 1: on what the Fed is thinking. Ahead of that, we

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Speaker 1: bring in Bob eisen Pice. He's the former director of

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Speaker 1: Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, now vice

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Speaker 1: chairman and chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors. Uh, Bob,

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Speaker 1: what do you think I should What's the most important

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Speaker 1: thing that I should ask Dennis Lockhart? Other than have

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Speaker 1: you got the five dollars I lent you about fifteen

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Speaker 1: years ago? Good morning, gentlemen, It's it's good to be here.

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Speaker 1: I believe the Dennists had sort of indicated two or

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Speaker 1: three weeks ago that he was probably on board for

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Speaker 1: a rating prease, So I think, obviously, Um, how much

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Speaker 1: of a derailing will this Friday's job number B on

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Speaker 1: his terms of thinking when it comes to his position

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Speaker 1: on the f o MC, how much do you think

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Speaker 1: it derails everybody? How much on the table can a

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Speaker 1: rate rise be Now, well, you know they have to

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Speaker 1: say it's on the table. But I think when you

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Speaker 1: consider that risk management plays a very important role in

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Speaker 1: their thinking, not wanting to actually make a mistake to

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Speaker 1: potentially derail the economy, this job's number is going to

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Speaker 1: give them a great deal of pause. And we know

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Speaker 1: there's a cadree of people who are very cautious. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And Yale Brainerd was was very upbeat about her outspoken

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Speaker 1: about what her own view was on that, and she's

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Speaker 1: one of the voting members. I think you have to

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Speaker 1: look at who's voting when you try to assess where

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Speaker 1: these people are going to come out. Uh. And I

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Speaker 1: just don't see them being able to move with that

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Speaker 1: kind of number. There is a Boubies and Bis and

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Speaker 1: you and I've talked about this before, an exceptionally historic

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Speaker 1: set of work done by your leadership at the Atlanta

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Speaker 1: FED years ago. Eisenbeis Wagon or John others about how

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Speaker 1: we guess the game, and the great Eisenbeis claim is

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Speaker 1: the result is there a reverse like Wobegon effect, the

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Speaker 1: idea that none of the forecasters, or for those cynical,

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Speaker 1: none of the guessers are better than the average guests,

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Speaker 1: does Cherry Yelling know what the average guess is right now? Well?

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Speaker 1: Sure they have readings on what these averages are, and

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Speaker 1: a lot of this is built on, you know, historic

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Speaker 1: research not only by other economists, but work that we did,

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Speaker 1: and we found that, Um, there's a lot of variation

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Speaker 1: in terms of what part of the cycle individual forecasters

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Speaker 1: tend to do better than others. And so it's not

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Speaker 1: only just the average that's that's important. But you really

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Speaker 1: need to know and I haven't seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: work this sort of dissecting who is the best at

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Speaker 1: turning points as opposed to predicting. Well, i'll go on

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Speaker 1: that bottom. But about what's so important here is if

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Speaker 1: we are data dependent and we're looking for actual progress,

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Speaker 1: we are slaves to the information flow. I get that,

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Speaker 1: But then the question is can the FED act on

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Speaker 1: that with confidence? Or are we gonna hear from Dennis

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Speaker 1: Locker today and from Janet Yelling another round of bucks.

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Speaker 1: I think I think you've got it. I think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of ye by because when you

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Speaker 1: set yourself up to being data dependent, then that focuses

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Speaker 1: on every little piece of data that comes out and

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Speaker 1: Everything that puts you in one direction or in another

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Speaker 1: is going to raise questions about how much weight do

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Speaker 1: you give this? How much do we give to that?

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Speaker 1: And uh, when you're talking about judgment, we know what

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Speaker 1: weights econometric models give to these changes. We don't know

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Speaker 1: what weights individuals do in their own head, with their

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Speaker 1: own models in their head. And I want to make

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Speaker 1: clear that eisenbeis Wagoner was historic fourteen or fifteen years ago,

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Speaker 1: and it was done with a respect for every economist.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't like sniping or snarky about the business. There

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Speaker 1: was a respect for how difficult this is. It's extraordinarily difficult, Uh, Bob,

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Speaker 1: how much uh does does the forecast? How much of

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Speaker 1: a world does the forecast play in what their next

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Speaker 1: decision is going to be, rather than the data that

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Speaker 1: they have, which is more backward looking. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: the forecasts really should play an important role in them

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Speaker 1: explaining and trying to communicate why they made the decision

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Speaker 1: that they did. And I think that's been sort of

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Speaker 1: a weakness that they haven't pushed on those forecasts as

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Speaker 1: much as they could and using that as a way

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Speaker 1: of explaining two people how things were affected and how

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Speaker 1: their views were affected in the context of the forecast

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Speaker 1: that they were putting forward. Bob Eyce and Weice thank

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Speaker 1: you for joining us. The chief mindory economists are Cumbling

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Speaker 1: advisors and formerly the top research assisted to Dennis Lockhart

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Speaker 1: and Company. It's really really important research on the game

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Speaker 1: of these strategists and economists and trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: where we're going in the huge variance is involved there again,

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Speaker 1: excuse me one of us seven oh seven on yen

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Speaker 1: euro one thirteen fifty seven, euro sixty shows stronger Euro

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Speaker 1: weaker yen uh this morning futures up six, Dow futures

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Speaker 1: up sixty points a yield one. This hour of surveillance

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Speaker 1: is brought to you by Palisades out he vis at

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Speaker 1: Palisades douty dot com. Here's John Tucker with news headline

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Speaker 1: Michael and Tom Hillary Clinton cruising to victory and Puerto

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Speaker 1: Rico's Democratic primary on Sunday that puts around the cusp

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Speaker 1: of mathematically clinching the party's nomination and becoming the first

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Speaker 1: woman to lead a major US presidential ticket. Six states

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Speaker 1: vote tomorrow, including California, With four hundred seventy five pledged delegates,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has a better chance of becoming president that

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Speaker 1: markets currently projected. This according to Harvard University history professor

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Speaker 1: Neal Ferguson. He says Trump is a pretty close to

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Speaker 1: fifty fifty chance of winning this election. Ferguson talking in

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg interview Bloomberg Television. Tropical storm Colin about to

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Speaker 1: at our parts of the US East Coast, including Florida

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Speaker 1: East and Georgian coastal areas of the Carolinas. This storm

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Speaker 1: is speeding out of course to hit Florida later today

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Speaker 1: with rains that forcash I say could close serious flooding

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Speaker 1: along much of the state's Gulf Coast. Global News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by a twenty four hund

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Speaker 1: of journalists. He had more than one hund of fifteen

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Speaker 1: news dreas around the world. I'm John Tucker, Michael and Tom.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Time now if with the land

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Speaker 1: Rover precipitate Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, here's Rob. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Mike and Tom. Look on the bright side, if you're

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Speaker 1: a Mets fan, we've seen a good glimpse of the

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Speaker 1: old Matt Harvey. Now he allowed just one run in

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Speaker 1: seven solid innings, in Miami despite the one nothing loss,

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Speaker 1: still two starts. I mean, obviously the massive struggles that

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Speaker 1: happened before, and the only thing you want to think

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Speaker 1: of is is not letting that kind of creep back in,

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Speaker 1: And you know today was I guess you could say

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Speaker 1: a second step. Harvey's only problem though, is that the

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Speaker 1: Marlins Ace Jose Fernandez was just a little bit better,

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Speaker 1: struck out fourteen ments and seven innings to earn the win.

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Speaker 1: Matt's go to Pittsburgh to night Stephen Matt's versus former

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Speaker 1: met Jonathan Nice Ments are in second two games behind. Washington.

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Speaker 1: Yankees were let down by the back end of the bullpen,

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Speaker 1: as Matt Weeder's game winning hit off her old As

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Speaker 1: Chapman was the difference. O's three Yankees one dropping New

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Speaker 1: York six and a half back front running Baltimore and

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Speaker 1: Boston Yankees return home tonight. Mass hero Tanaka entertains Matt

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Speaker 1: Shoemaker and the Angels. NBA Finals plenty of star power

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Speaker 1: on display despite two lopsided wins for Golden State as

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Speaker 1: the Warriors blasted Cleveland one ten seventies seven out West

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Speaker 1: the Warriors Clay Thompson on not being surprised by their success.

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Speaker 1: Our focus has been there and we got too many

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Speaker 1: great pros on this team to let us slide at

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Speaker 1: this point of the season, you know, and come this faller,

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Speaker 1: we really play you know, ten of eleven guys and

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Speaker 1: everyone contributes. So I'm not that surprised because which we've

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Speaker 1: been such a great home team all year. Kevin Love,

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Speaker 1: who missed last year's finals with injury, left the game early,

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Speaker 1: was elbowed in the back of the head for Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: Game threes Wednesday in Cleveland. NHL Stanley Cup Final Game

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Speaker 1: four is tonight in San Jose pits Burg. They lead

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Speaker 1: the Sharks two games to one. In tennis, no Vak

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Speaker 1: Djokovic wins his first career Grand Slam beats Andy Murray

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Speaker 1: at the French Open. And that is your NBC Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Sports update. Michael Don thanks so much, greatly, appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Lots going on in the sports calendar as well. Let

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Speaker 1: me do a data check. We look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

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Speaker 1: Will amend it to Friday, Equity markets resilience through Friday.

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Speaker 1: The fixed closing thirteen point six six features up six

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Speaker 1: down features up sixty The yields all in off of Thursday,

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Speaker 1: but a little bit better today. Ten year up to

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Speaker 1: basis points one point seven two percent. Uh two year

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Speaker 1: yield up three basis points from a shocking one point

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Speaker 1: seven seven. We're up to point eight zero right on

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Speaker 1: the two year higher yields. A little bit of recovery

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Speaker 1: in tone offer. Friday Oil fifty sixty four on Brand,

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Speaker 1: forty nine seventy two on West Texas Gold, up three

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Speaker 1: dollars move over the last three trading days. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Savans. The Sports Report was brought to by land

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