1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatarati. This week Hyped just Right. 2 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Whatever the mood on climate these days, there's always big 3 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,159 Speaker 1: ideas in the climate technology space, but it can be 4 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: hard to get your head around all the different types 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: of technologies making waves and to separate what's real and 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 1: what's low carbon smoke and mirrors. So this week I'm 7 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: teaming up with Shale Khan to play a game of overhyped, 8 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: under hyped, or hype just right. Shale is a venture 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: capitalist at Energy Impact Partners. This episode is a collaboration 10 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 1: with the Catalyst podcast that Shale hosts, where he interviews 11 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: tech experts about decarbonization. Together, we're going to talk about 12 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: some of the climate technologies that are working, the ones 13 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: that are going nowhere, and some that we can't wait 14 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: to see their full potential. Chill, Welcome to Zero. 15 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: Thank you, Akshat, Welcome to Catalyst. 16 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: Well, this is a different kind of podcast and we're 17 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 1: making it across an ocean, but with similar politics in 18 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: the background. 19 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 2: Yeah's what's going I mean, I have a question for 20 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 2: you. You're in London, right yep? Okay, so and you you 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: work for Bloomberg Green and one thing that I have 22 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 2: found is that in the US, places where like green 23 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: or clean or climate is in their name have been 24 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: having an interesting set of discussions around nomenclature. Is that 25 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 2: true for I mean, Bloomberg is obviously based in the US, 26 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: but so I'm curious how you see it from the 27 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg perspective high level, but also in the UK and 28 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: in Europe. 29 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Bloomberg News is a global news organization, but yes, 30 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: it is US headquartered. I would say there isn't that 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: much muzzling of terms as it's happening in the US government, 32 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: but there's certainly a backlash on the politics here. So 33 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: there is a party called the Reform Party that's on 34 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: the rise over here, doing in the polls better than 35 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: the main two parties Labor and Conservatives, and they are 36 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: against net zero. So we are usually a step behind America, 37 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: but then eventually catch up. 38 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 2: Well in this case, I'm not sure I want you 39 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 2: to catch up, but let's see what happens, all right, 40 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 2: So this is going to be fun. What's our plan here? 41 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: So we're going to do something different where we're going 42 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: to go through a number of topics that our producers 43 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 1: have selected. Where we're going to say whether we think 44 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: it's under hyped, overhyped, or hyped just right, and explain 45 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: our positions for why we think. So, let's start with 46 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: meeting load growth for electricity, which is a hot topic everywhere, 47 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:56,559 Speaker 1: but specifically within that, What do you think about distributed 48 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: energy resources? What are they and where do you land? 49 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 2: And right? So, distributed energy resources is like a grab 50 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: bag category of a bunch of different things. I would 51 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 2: say the way I define it is anything that you 52 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 2: deploy at a customer site, So it's sitting behind the meter, 53 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 2: the customer side of the meter that either generates energy, 54 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 2: stores energy, or shifts load. So canonical examples generates energy, 55 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: think rooftop solar stores energy, think power walls and batteries, 56 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 2: home batteries, batteries of buildings. Shifts load, think smart thermostats 57 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 2: right where you can shift it. And there's a broader 58 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: array of things that fall within that, but they get 59 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 2: grouped together, and is distributed energy resources. On the question 60 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 2: of deer's for meeting load growth, which is a question 61 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 2: here is it over hyped, under hyped, or hype just right? 62 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: I think my argument here would be in the circles 63 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 2: that I travel in which are pretty like wonky energy 64 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: tech circles. It's becoming increasingly hyped because we're just starting 65 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: to see this way of announcements that are inexorably coming 66 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 2: where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or 67 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: data center operators and third parties who do aggregations of 68 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: drs to deliver capacity, to get data centers on the 69 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: grid and things like that. Like that's coming, no question, 70 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 2: and so it's starting to bubble up into the hype world. 71 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 2: But I think that is my world is a pretty 72 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 2: small portion of the world, and broadly, I think even 73 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 2: in data center universe, it has not really been considered 74 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: very much yet. Like mostly it is we're going to 75 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: build a data center, can we get grid capacity? If not, 76 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 2: can we build a big gas turbine? And so my 77 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: argument is because of all that, it is still under 78 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 2: hyped as of today. 79 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's an interesting perspective. I would say in my world, 80 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: which is a little bit broader because I talked to 81 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: policy folks, and I talked to big businesses and I 82 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 1: talked to vcs, is that it actually used to be 83 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 1: more hyped because it was way in which everybody was 84 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 1: justifying having all these big renewables goals being set up 85 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: because look, don't worry about it. I know it is variable, 86 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 1: but we'll have these technologies that are just going to 87 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: come online within the next few years and they'll make 88 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: it easier to manage this variability in renewables. At that time, 89 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: it was pretty hyped. Now I would say it's under 90 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 1: hyped because it's not something people talk about that much. 91 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 1: But those solutions are actually starting to bubble up. So 92 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: we had the CEO of Octopus Energy, which is the 93 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 1: largest utility here in the UK, on the pod and 94 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: this year they've launched a bid Lee's program where you 95 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,679 Speaker 1: can just pay monthly to get a bid electric car 96 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: and they would give you twelve thousand miles of free 97 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: range in a year as long as you make sure 98 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: that you put your car into the charging port whenever 99 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: you're home, because they'll use the car for a virtual 100 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: power plant. Essentially, that sort of thing is now becoming 101 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: very frequent, Like I get text messages from Octopacology saying, hey, 102 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: twelve pm to two pm today, free electricity, use all 103 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: you want. And so I feel like, now those technologies 104 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: are here and they can actually be put to use 105 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: and so they're kind of underhype because you could actually 106 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: now see those things out there. 107 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that DRS are a second We're in 108 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 2: a second wave now, right, Like I've talked about this 109 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: before on the pod, but there was a wave of 110 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 2: excitement around DRS, which I think is what you are 111 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: referring to maybe a decade ago, and at that point 112 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,160 Speaker 2: it was like, Oh, we're going to decentralize the grid 113 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 2: and maybe this is going to disintermediate utilities, and none 114 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 2: of that happened. But I think what is interesting that's 115 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: different is the frame of the question here, which is 116 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 2: is it overhyped, under hyped, or hype just right for 117 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: the purpose of meeting load growth? And that was that 118 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 2: was not a thing we cared about a decade ago 119 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 2: when DRS first emerged. So I think this second wave 120 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 2: that we're seeing now DRS as a solution to managing 121 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: load growth is interesting. It's one of the things that 122 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 2: makes it more attractive now, alongside a bunch of other 123 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 2: factors as you mentioned, like the rise of evs and 124 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 2: EV chargers as a significant dr source of capacity is 125 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 2: another one. Okay, so we're on the same side here. 126 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 2: We will think it's currently under hyped. Let me ask 127 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: you another one that I've talked about a little bit 128 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: before on this spot, which is putting collocation with generations, 129 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: so basically putting generation largely gas on site with data centers. 130 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: Is that as far as meeting the load growth challenge? 131 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 2: Do you think that is overhyped? Under hyped? Drype just right? 132 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: I think it is hyped because I have been reporting 133 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: on gas turbines, which are currently, as my editor put it, 134 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: the la booboo of climate solutions. 135 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 2: That's a very I get it. 136 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: That seems right, very high in demand, and there's a 137 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: year's waiting list before you can get the one you want. 138 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: And so sure you know, in principle, if you could 139 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: get a gas turbine, you would build it close to 140 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: where the data center is. But can you even get 141 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: a gas turbine? 142 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, there is that. So you think it's hyped just right, 143 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 2: because like it, it is a thing that would happen 144 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: a lot. But the supply chain bottleneck is the is 145 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: the rate limitter. I think that is generally true. I 146 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 2: do think so I've talked about a little bit before 147 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 2: on my pod. I think it is a little bit overhyped. 148 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: The degree to which not to say that we don't 149 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: need a ton of new generation, and not to say 150 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: that we don't need a ton of new capacity on 151 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 2: the grid, but the degree to which that capacity needs 152 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 2: to be co located with the data center, to me, 153 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: is a little bit overhyped. We will see it happen. 154 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: It's already happening in some places, right, You're seeing this 155 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 2: in the US. We have the Xai Colossus data Center 156 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 2: has a bunch of gas turbines. Meta is building a 157 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: big facility that's going to have a bunch of gas, 158 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 2: and a number of these projects will. But I think 159 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 2: it's going to end up being the minority of new 160 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 2: data centers, not the majority of new data centers. I 161 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 2: think the implications from what you would see in the 162 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 2: news is that like every new data center is going 163 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 2: to come equipped with a bunch of gas turbines. Again, 164 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 2: not to say that we won't build a ton of 165 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 2: new gas generating capacity. I just don't think it's all 166 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 2: going to be collocated with the with the data centers. 167 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the reason we are bringing this up 168 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: is because building the grid has been so hard, Right, 169 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: the goal would be with co location, you don't have 170 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: to wait for a grid connection to come through before 171 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 1: you can build your data center ensure if you can 172 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: pay really high prices for the gas turbines, which some 173 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 1: tech companies can, then you might be able to do it, 174 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: but most places won't. 175 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 2: It's also there's an interesting embedded question in that too, 176 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 2: which is at some point will costs matter? Well, no, 177 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 2: actually two questions. At some point will costs matter and 178 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 2: at some point will uptime not matter quite as much? Right, 179 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 2: because if you have the same uptime requirements for your 180 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 2: AI data center as cloud data centers have historically, and 181 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: you want to front run your grid connection by installing generation, 182 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 2: you can't just build gas turbans, right. You have to 183 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 2: build a lot of infrastructure because you have to have really, 184 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 2: really high reliability. So you're going to build your gas turbans. 185 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 2: You're going to build You're going to oversize some batteries 186 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 2: that's going to be really high CAPEX. You might add, 187 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 2: you know, additional layers to your UPS system. Like, there's 188 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 2: a lot that you would build, and that comes at 189 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 2: a real cost. Now where we are in the cycle 190 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 2: right now, you know, the reality is that the energy 191 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 2: total embedded energy cost in compute is small compared to 192 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,199 Speaker 2: the capex of the of everything else, but mostly the chips. 193 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: So maybe energy cost doesn't really matter, even if you're 194 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 2: deploying a bunch of more capex into that stuff. But 195 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 2: there's an interesting question of will that ultimately matter, which 196 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: would dictate the degree to which this equation of speed 197 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 2: to power versus cost of power shifts a little bit. 198 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 2: I think it it will shift. I just don't know 199 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 2: when that is. 200 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: There's also the chance that you know, these guys would 201 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: go and build the power capacity where the grid connection 202 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: is available, which there are many parts of the world 203 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: where there is grid connection available. So yeah, I think 204 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: it is a little too hyped. With co location for 205 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: data centers, some will get it, but most people won't. 206 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: Let's come to the next topic, which is falling on 207 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: from trying to build the grid here at zero. We've 208 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: done a series called Bottlenecks because we are seeing these 209 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: bottlenecks to build the grid, especially in Europe and North America, 210 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: show up in so many places. There's so many bottlenecks 211 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: that it's not just about permitting and politics but about 212 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 1: actual objects. So where is generating capacity on your hype meter. 213 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 2: And the hype meter as a bottleneck. Right, So the 214 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: question is basically, are we overly and like over hyped 215 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 2: would mean we're too worried about it. Under hype would 216 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: mean we're not worried enough about it. I think that, 217 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 2: you know, the long lead times or gas turbans in 218 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: particular is very well established and reported and understood by everyone, 219 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 2: which I guess argues that it's it's hyped because people 220 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 2: do appreciate that that is a real challenge. There also, though, 221 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 2: has been a lot of good data to suggest that 222 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: generating capacity in the next few years is not the 223 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 2: dominant bottleneck, Like there is enough capacity in enough places 224 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 2: to deliver the kind of load growth for the next 225 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 2: few years that the grid will need. So I think 226 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 2: this will get to the next one where I think 227 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 2: there is a real concern. But I would say generating 228 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 2: capacity to me, might be a little bit overhyped. The 229 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 2: cues are long if you want to build new gas turbans, 230 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 2: but I don't think that is going to be the 231 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 2: rate limitter on load growth at least through like twenty thirty. 232 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 1: I think that is right. We spoke to a utility 233 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,959 Speaker 1: CEO the next or CEO in the US, who said, 234 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: you know, if gas turbines are going to be that expensive, 235 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: that's just going to make solar prose batteries so much 236 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 1: more attractive, and we will build those instead. So there 237 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: is certainly no reason to think all forms of generating 238 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: capacity is in a bottleneck, and so all sorts of 239 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: other things could be built. But there are other challenges 240 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: in bottlenecks which are much more severe to me, that 241 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:31,599 Speaker 1: we need to worry about. 242 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 2: So that maybe gets to the next one I think, 243 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: which is which is transmission deliverability basically is the way 244 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 2: to put it. Do you think that is overhyped underhyped 245 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 2: as a bottleneck. 246 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: I think it's super under hyped. Let me give you 247 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: a European example, which is that the Netherlands has twelve 248 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: thousand businesses waiting for an electricity connection. Companies like ASML, 249 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: which is like the Netherlands' biggest company, most valuable company, 250 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: isn't a to build extra factory because it cannot get 251 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: an electricity connection for the next few years. 252 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 2: And is the Netherlands in the same situation as the 253 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: US where we just basically stopped building new transmission lines 254 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 2: years ago, like we I mean not zero but effectively 255 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 2: zero for the past few years. Is that the situation 256 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 2: and in Netherlands or in Europe in general, or is it? 257 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: No, No, it's not that severe because a lot of 258 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: European countries are interconnected and they have been building more 259 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: interconnections between them. It's more like there are places around 260 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: Europe where there is more generating capacity, and there are 261 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: demand centers which are typically further away from those generating capacity, 262 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: that aren't getting the power supply as it's needed. So 263 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: the transmission hasn't been able to keep up with the 264 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: demand that is showing up. 265 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 2: And I don't think of that. Maybe I should know better, 266 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 2: but I don't think of the Netherlands as having been 267 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 2: a big data center hub historically, do you know? 268 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. I mean, it certainly has 269 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: some industry. A lot of it is, you know, oriented 270 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: towards electricity because it's high end manufacturing. But no, I 271 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: don't think it's a big data center hub. 272 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, which I mean is even more concerning if you 273 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: think about the context of there's this big, long queue 274 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 2: to get grid connected in a market that hasn't yet 275 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 2: seen the boom in like very large load interconnection requests 276 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 2: that we're seeing in lots of other places. 277 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: There is the aspect of dr like distributed energy resources 278 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: that is affecting the grids in Europe. So Netherlands has 279 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: the highest per capita rooftop solar in the world, which 280 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: you know for a European country, it'll be like, oh, 281 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: that's odd, but you know that's what you get. You 282 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: get cheap solar panels, and you get some policy available 283 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: and you'll deploy a lot of solar panels. But it's 284 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: causing real problems at the transmission and distribution network locally 285 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: because the grid has been built over the last hundred 286 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: years and many of the objects of the grid are 287 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: much much older. So that brings us to the next topic, 288 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: which is transformers. Transformers are this object that said, between 289 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: generation between a power plant and your home, because they 290 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: have to make sure that the voltage at which power 291 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: is delivered is just right for the devices that you 292 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: are going to attach to it. Where do you land 293 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: on whether transformers are over hyped, under hyped, just right hype. 294 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 2: So again, if the question is overhyped, under hyped as 295 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 2: a bottleneck to load growth to meeting load growth, then 296 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 2: I think that they're overhyped. I want to clarify. Transformers 297 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: are incredibly important, and there is a bottleneck, and the 298 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 2: lead times are very long, and I've witnessed it firsthand, 299 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 2: both from the utility side and the load side. It 300 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 2: is a problem. I don't think it is the rate 301 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 2: limiting factor. Even today, with long lead times, it's an 302 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 2: annoyance to get anything built. Things will still get built, 303 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 2: and certainly those lead times for transformers are so shorter 304 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 2: than they are for gas turbines. But I do think 305 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 2: we also will see a lot of new transformer manufacturing 306 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 2: capacity come online in the next few years. It's the 307 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 2: lead times are going to come down, and I think 308 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 2: we'll see a way of new technology. I'm an investor 309 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 2: in a company called hair and Power, which is building 310 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 2: solid state power electronics. You know, I think stuff like 311 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 2: that is going to revolutionize that sector. But even in 312 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 2: the absence of things like that, I don't think it 313 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 2: is going to be the thing that stops the load 314 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 2: growth from getting met. So I'm going to say overhyped 315 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 2: on that one. 316 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: I would go under hyped if I look at the 317 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: non data center crowd because transformers are needed for everything, 318 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: and in my reporting, like I've come across many many 319 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: projects like housing projects that are completely on hold for 320 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: eighteen months because they're missing this one object that they 321 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: need before they can power the area, and so it 322 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: is affecting a lot more people. But the people who 323 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: can afford to pay for it can jump the queue 324 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: and get the object, then yes, they can. They can 325 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: get there. And then on the manufacturing side, again, my 326 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: reputting says, these companies are very conservative. They will invest, 327 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: but only if they have surety that there will be 328 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: demand for transformers for twenty years or so, which they 329 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: are not yet sure will. No. 330 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 2: I totally agree with that, and it's already evident in 331 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 2: the fact that we've had these long lead times for 332 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 2: transformers back to I don't know, twenty twenty one, twenty 333 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 2: twenty two. It's not a new thing, and it has 334 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 2: been persistent for longer than I think a lot of 335 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: people expect it, in part because of the conservatism of 336 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 2: that industry, who, to be fair to them, they've gone 337 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: through cycles before where they've overinvested and then been underutilized 338 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 2: and so on, and so they're reticent to do that again. 339 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: I think that the expansion of capacity is not entirely 340 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 2: going to come from the incumbents, though, I think there's 341 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 2: going to be a wave of upstart companies, whether they're 342 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: doing traditional oil filled transformers or solid state stuff like 343 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: Karen is doing. I think they're going to fill in 344 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 2: a lot of the supply gap in the next few years, 345 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 2: even if the hitachies of the world, you know, expand 346 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: capacity slower than you would want them. 347 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 1: To join us after the break for more of my 348 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 1: conversation with Shilkhan, and Hey, while I've got you here, 349 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: fancy writing us a review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Recently, 350 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 1: Jfred nineteen eighty eight wrote zero will prompt even mildly 351 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 1: interested listeners to get pumped about green politics and technologies. 352 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 1: Thanks to you, Fred. 353 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: Let's take at version for a second. Here, you had 354 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: a thing that I have no context on, but you 355 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: want to talk about this that's relevant to my day job, 356 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 2: which is you wanted to talk about VC as a 357 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 2: tool for scaling climate tech. You're gonna grill me on 358 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 2: something here. 359 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 1: I just don't know what I would happily really on 360 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 1: many many topics, but this one. I wanted to put 361 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: us on the hype or under hype, because you know 362 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: it's your business. But from the perspective of venture capital 363 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: helping scale climate solutions. I think VC is overhyped because 364 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: that model might work in America, and I don't know 365 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: if it's working because there are not that many companies 366 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: that have really been VC oriented big climate champions right now, 367 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 1: but rest of the world are building climate solutions and 368 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: a lot of those companies aren't VC backed. Your BVID 369 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 1: wasn't a VC backed company while it became an electric 370 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: car giant. So to me, that is one model. It 371 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 1: can work in certain cases, and it's not working in 372 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: so many cases that perhaps it's time to look at 373 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 1: other forms of idea is that would allow maybe existing 374 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: companies to pivot towards climate solutions, which also can happen. 375 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 2: I think what we've broadly seen historically is that venture capital, 376 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:17,479 Speaker 2: particularly venture capital in the US, I will say, plays 377 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 2: an outsized role relative to the dollars that go into it. 378 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 2: Plays an outsized role in getting new technologies into commercialization 379 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 2: right like from the lab to the market. And usually 380 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 2: there's one or two pioneering companies that are venture backed 381 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 2: that do that and are the first. So if you 382 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,879 Speaker 2: want to talk about bid, like what would bid be 383 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 2: if Tesla hadn't been Tesla. It's an interesting question. If 384 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 2: there had never been a Tesla, would BID still be 385 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 2: what it is today? Would it have scaled as quickly? 386 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 2: Or was the existence proof of a company like Tesla 387 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 2: the thing that caused BID in the Chinese government to 388 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,479 Speaker 2: deploy a lot of capital into it. You've seen versions 389 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 2: of that, I think a lot of times. Yeah. 390 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 1: Other example would be CTL, which is the largest battery company. 391 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: You know, what would it be if LFB lithimyin phosphate 392 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,360 Speaker 1: had not been invented in America and then first commercialized 393 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 1: by E one to three, which is a venture back company. 394 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 2: That's right now, That's a good example of there is 395 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 2: a separate question that I think is a good question, 396 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 2: which is do the investors, the venture investors, and the 397 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 2: companies that they invest in, reap the full reward of 398 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: that invention and commercialization? And A one two three is 399 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 2: a perfect example of like, that company went public and 400 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 2: then went bankrupt pretty quickly. So maybe the answer to 401 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 2: that is no, although some early investors did make some 402 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 2: money on it, So I don't know that. That is 403 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 2: a different question, and that's one that I grapple with 404 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 2: all the time. But if you're just taking the big 405 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,160 Speaker 2: step back thirty thousand foot ecosystem view, I still think 406 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,440 Speaker 2: it is true that again relative to the dollars deployed, 407 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 2: because where are the dollars actually getting deployed. They're getting, 408 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 2: you know, in total volume, they're either getting deployed into 409 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 2: the bids and c atl's of the world, or they're 410 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 2: getting deployed in infrastructure. Right, the real goes to building 411 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 2: big solar projects and things like that. But on an 412 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 2: impact two dollars invested ratio, I would still claim venture 413 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 2: capital plays an outsized role. 414 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: I would just put it back on one thing, which 415 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: is there's a phrase that Dan Wang, this guy who 416 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 1: wrote Breakneck, used which I liked, which is America is 417 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: good at going from zero to one, like creating something 418 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: that didn't exist, But China is good at going from 419 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: one to hundred, really like giving you the solution at 420 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 1: the cheapest price possible. But a lot of that zero 421 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: to one in America happens because of the level of 422 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 1: science funding and the talent that it has, and the 423 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: basic sciences and the research, which in the current administration 424 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,880 Speaker 1: is going to go down or is going down already, 425 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: And so there is a risk that that thing that 426 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: V see enables, which is translation of this immense amount 427 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 1: of basic science into a usable product, becomes harder. 428 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 2: Yes, I agree with that, and I think it is 429 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 2: incumbent to power on the US to do everything that 430 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 2: we can to maintain that position as the part of 431 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 2: the world that is best at going zero to one 432 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 2: and then arguably competing for the one to one hundred 433 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 2: as well. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion 434 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 2: that we will. I'm saying historically, it is clear to 435 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 2: me that that is true. Looking forward, you know, we've 436 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 2: got work to do there. 437 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 1: I have another weird one that I've picked for you, 438 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: which is, what do you think about the hype on 439 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: the Paris Agreement helping shape businesses towards climate solutions? Under 440 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,360 Speaker 1: hype are just hyped, right? 441 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 2: So I don't think I have a good answer to 442 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 2: this one, because, to be totally honest, I don't hear 443 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 2: about or think about the Paris Agreement at all, like 444 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 2: basically zero. So maybe that tells you something. It's certainly 445 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 2: in my world it's not hyped. I can tell you that, 446 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 2: but I couldn't tell you whether it should be hyped 447 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 2: or not. Do you have a view. Are there things 448 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 2: that are like downstream of the Paris Agreement that are 449 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 2: affecting my world that I just don't know, you know, 450 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 2: came from Paris or is it just sort of a 451 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 2: it's there and it's a big geopolitical thing, but it's 452 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 2: not really affecting business. 453 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say this is the bit as a 454 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: journalist that I find fascinating because I see many worlds 455 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: and the Paris Agreement actually works as I've seen across 456 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: all these worlds. But some people have very strong views 457 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,640 Speaker 1: and other people have no views. So let me explain. 458 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: In climate diplomacy, Parasagreement is this document that was agreed 459 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: on in twenty fifteen by all countries in the world, 460 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: which is in principle voluntary, but sets a goal of 461 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: one point five or two degrees celsiaful warming that all 462 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: countries must keep to. It was twenty five years in 463 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: the making, That's how long it took to come to 464 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 1: a conclusion, and then what you got was a voluntary agreement. 465 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,199 Speaker 1: And a lot of the people in Diploma see are 466 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 1: happy and sad at the same time, like we have something, 467 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: but it's not good enough, and they think about it 468 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 1: a lot. We meet at COP meetings every year, which 469 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 1: we're going to do in Brazil next month in November 470 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: at COP thirty, and we'll talk a lot more about 471 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: those words. And the people in that world continue to 472 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: be frustrated by Paris. But Paris's impact on businesses is 473 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: actually quite big because it has become translated into government policy, 474 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 1: and then government policy gets translated into all forms of 475 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,360 Speaker 1: directions that businesses are taking, which they may not always 476 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 1: explicitly tell you it is because of Paris. They'll say 477 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: it's because of government policy. And every government has its 478 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: own policy, but its tentacles have far reaching impact, even 479 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: if most people don't see the direct connection. 480 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 2: I believe that, and I also think probably I'm colored 481 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 2: by the fact that I'm in the US, where you know, 482 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 2: our relationship to parents has been fraught and back and 483 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 2: forth over the years, as opposed to like Europe, where 484 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 2: it's been consistent, and so probably the policies have had 485 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 2: more time to take hold. But it is interesting your 486 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 2: point that like people either have very strong opinions about 487 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 2: Paris or no opinions. I'm clearly in the latter camp. There. 488 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 2: All right, we're short on time, but I think we 489 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 2: should do a quick grab bag of additional We could 490 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 2: just do a few technologies and decide whether we think 491 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 2: they are over hyped, under hyped, hype just right. All right, 492 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 2: So let's start with a battery chemistry, sodium ion batteries 493 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 2: over hyped, under hyped, hype just right. 494 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 1: So I know you've done a couple of episodes, so 495 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 1: you probably have a better more informed view on this. 496 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: My view is that, as somebody who's written about batteries 497 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: for the last decade, getting new chemistries out to a 498 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 1: commercial use case is really hard. When companies do that, 499 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: kudos to them. But given the pace at which lithium 500 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: ion chemistries have fallen in price and the amount of 501 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 1: manufacturing capacity that's been built the world. If I look 502 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:05,439 Speaker 1: at Bloombaginif projections, sodia mine will make an impact, but 503 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 1: such a sliver even after twenty thirty years, that I 504 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: feel like today sodia mine is overhyped because people think 505 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 1: it could make a big difference, but really it may not. 506 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 2: I think it's hyped just right. Largely. First of all, 507 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 2: I don't think it's that hyped, to be honest, People 508 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 2: talk about it, but you know, I think for all 509 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,480 Speaker 2: the reasons you described, and everybody having had the same 510 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 2: history that you're talking about, people are reticent to like 511 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 2: go all in on this is the next big battery 512 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 2: chemistry apart from clickbaity articles. But I think there is 513 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 2: a degree of hype that is warranted, largely because it 514 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 2: seems pretty clear that some of the big Chinese manufacturers 515 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 2: c ATL included are investing a lot is sodiumyan and 516 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 2: are actually deploying I mean, your point about getting new 517 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 2: battery technologies into the field is true. They're doing it 518 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: though in China, and so it's coming. The question to 519 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 2: me is is you know sort of the one you're 520 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,719 Speaker 2: alluding to, like, what portion of the market does it 521 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 2: take up? Right? And the last version of a big 522 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 2: chemistry shift, which is a smaller chemistry shift than this 523 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 2: one that we saw was lf the rise of LFP, 524 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 2: and that has been a huge deal, huge deal. Right, 525 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 2: Will sodium ion be the next wave of the same 526 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 2: type of a thing or is it going to be 527 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 2: a more niche solution because it's lower energy density and 528 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 2: so on. I don't think we know that yet, but 529 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 2: it's coming from from c at L and its cohort, 530 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 2: So let's just see what happens. 531 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 1: The next one is advanced geothermal. Where do you land 532 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: on hype, under hyped, just right? 533 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 2: So in the US, advanced geo thermal is very hyped. 534 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 2: I would say it's hype for a bunch of reasons. 535 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 2: Some of them you know, legitimate success of companies like 536 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 2: Fervo Energy, you know, sort of pioneering it. But also 537 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 2: there's a political lens to that because our new administration 538 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 2: are our Secretary of Energy in particular, Chris Right is 539 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 2: super bowlish on g thermal in general. He likes geothermal 540 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 2: and nuclear and those are the two sort of like 541 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 2: overlapping clean energy things that I think he's full throatedly 542 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 2: in support of. And so as a result of that, 543 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 2: it is highly hyped that maybe warn't like, let's see 544 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 2: where it goes. But it's very early days. Like you know, 545 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 2: Fervo is hoping to have its first hundred megawatts of 546 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 2: its first big project online sometime next year. So I 547 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 2: guess my argument here would be it's somewhere in the 548 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 2: hyped just right to maybe slightly overhyped stage in the US. 549 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 2: I'm curious, though, from your sort of more global perspective, 550 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 2: the degree to which advanced geothermal has talked about. 551 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: So this is one where typically the rest of the 552 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: world is following the US on its hype cycle, and 553 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 1: so clearly there's a lot more talk about advanced geothermal 554 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: because US has shown some success already and surely, you know, 555 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 1: being able to apply shiel drilling type technology could make 556 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 1: many other parts of the world, which don't always have 557 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: great geotone resources, suddenly more valuable. The difficulty, I feel 558 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: like is that it's overhyped because the level of other 559 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: types of talent and infrastructure that you need to deliver 560 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: on advanced geo thermal exists in the US, but will 561 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 1: take a long time in other parts of the world 562 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: to build. So engineers who can manage shale type drilling, 563 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: or like a study of the subsurface that would allow 564 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 1: you to do it in the right way, all of 565 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: that just takes a long time, and I don't think 566 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 1: that expertise exists in the rest of the world quite 567 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: as much, and so we are going to see not 568 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 1: as many projects built as many people think there might be. 569 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 2: It's an interesting point, right because one of the reasons 570 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 2: that it is so attractive in the US is that 571 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 2: we do have all of this expertise from oil and 572 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 2: gas that is being leveraged for advanced geothermal. But of 573 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 2: course we are a country that has that expertise, has 574 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 2: the resources, has been drilling, has been doing horizontal directional 575 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 2: drilling for a long time, invented it in fact. So yeah, 576 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 2: that's a good point. Okay, last one, continuing on the 577 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: same vein of technologies that Secretary of Energy Chris Right likes, 578 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 2: advanced nuclear over hyped, under hyped hype. 579 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: Just right, Yeah, it's got the similar vibe as advanced 580 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 1: geothermal in that you know, in principle, wouldn't it be 581 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 1: nice if we could build small modular nuclear reactors because 582 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: then we could make many of them and try and 583 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: then lower the price of nuclear which has been going 584 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 1: up and up and up in Europe and North America. 585 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: And again the hype is following on from America, where 586 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 1: you know, countries like the UK are now asking Rolls 587 00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 1: Royce to make a small modular reactor. But the reality 588 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 1: is the only countries that have functioning civilian small modular 589 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: reactors are Russia and China. And the countries who have 590 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 1: been building nuclear not just domestically but also around the 591 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: world are Russia, and China and Asia if you want 592 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 1: to include os like eight thousands, right, agreed, Yes, South 593 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 1: Korea too. And so do suddenly imagine that you know 594 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 1: a new technology will unlock nuclear in Europe and North 595 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 1: America to me is overhyped. 596 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 2: I think there's an interesting question we're heading into in 597 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 2: nuclear world, which is sort of between I don't know 598 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 2: what to call advanced nuclear and not advanced nuclear. But 599 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 2: let me just like I'll frame up to groups. Group 600 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: one says we need to just we have a couple 601 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 2: of technologies that are kind of the front runners from 602 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 2: large OEMs, right, So this would be the eight one 603 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 2: thousand from Westinghouse and maybe the br X three hundred 604 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 2: from Gatachi, which is an SMR that's a you know, 605 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 2: three hundred megawatt reactor. Those are the furthest along. They're 606 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 2: bankable OEMs. Forget all this other noise. We need to 607 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 2: go deplay as many of those as possible. Right. And 608 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 2: then the other argument is there's a whole bunch of 609 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 2: new technologies coming from a whole raft of companies that 610 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 2: could be deploying SMRs or microreactors or whatever, and some 611 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 2: of those need to go win as well. And you know, 612 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 2: I don't think it's clear yet which direction we had 613 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 2: if either. One thing I do worry about is that 614 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 2: I personally think in the long run, nuclear probably ends 615 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,879 Speaker 2: up looking like gas turbans look today, which is there. 616 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 2: You know, in the gas turban world, there are basically 617 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 2: three OEMs that control like seventy seventy five percent of 618 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,959 Speaker 2: the market. It's an oligopoly essentially, and I don't see 619 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 2: a really strong reason why it would be different in nuclear. 620 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 2: So we need to get through this winnowing. We need 621 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,080 Speaker 2: to call the herd a little bit to get to 622 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,800 Speaker 2: the point where we're deploying enough number of individual reactors 623 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,960 Speaker 2: to get down that cost curve, and that's going to 624 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 2: be a messy process to get there. I guess my 625 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 2: answer is that I think advanced nuclear, if I broadly 626 00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 2: define it to include all of those things, seems hyped 627 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 2: about right to me. But I worry that we are 628 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 2: overhyping too many individual technologies, reactor types, companies relative to 629 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 2: what we actually need to do in that market. 630 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's an interesting one. I mean on gasterbinds. Yeah, 631 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 1: it's semens, ge and Mitsubushi, which are the three giants 632 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: to the extent where China has been trying to make 633 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 1: a gasterbine manufacturing industry, and it's not really succeeding because 634 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 1: it's just so specialized and the supply chains are so tight, 635 00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 1: and the supply chain also ends up being one where 636 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 1: the same parts are used by jet engines, for example. 637 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 1: So like real complications nuclear, to me, it's hard to 638 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,719 Speaker 1: see if it comes down to those three, especially with 639 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 1: the kind of political layer attached to nuclear, where transfer 640 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: of fuel and which country can build in which country 641 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 1: is tightly coordinated by the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, 642 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 1: That makes it much harder for me to see just 643 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 1: the sort of market forces that drove gasterbine MNA happening 644 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:01,760 Speaker 1: in nuclear. 645 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 2: Does that argue in what you're saying for their actually 646 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 2: being more OEMs than there are in gas service? 647 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,640 Speaker 1: I think there will be national champions and more of them, 648 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 1: whereas siemens G and Mitsubushi are more than national champions. Yeah, 649 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,240 Speaker 1: sure their country support them, but they also have such 650 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: large customers in other countries. 651 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 2: It's interesting because I could see an argument for what 652 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 2: you're describing sort of pushing in the reverse direction, which 653 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,840 Speaker 2: is that actually it's going to be getting through the 654 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 2: gauntlet of being a nuclear reactor OEM is going to 655 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 2: be so hard because of all the additional layers that 656 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 2: even fewer companies are going to get through it. Adding 657 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 2: the national lens to it maybe complicates it a little bit, 658 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,319 Speaker 2: but I could see that being an argument for maybe 659 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 2: there aren't three, maybe there's really one or two, rather 660 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:50,880 Speaker 2: than they're being thirty. 661 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 1: Well, you're imagining a more peaceful world than I think 662 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 1: we are going into. But I hope you're right. 663 00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,960 Speaker 2: All right. I think we covered a bunch of stuff here. 664 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,279 Speaker 2: This was fun. Thank you Akshav for doing this with me. 665 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is great fun. Thank you for suggesting the idea, 666 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: and thank you for listening to zero And now for 667 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 1: the sound of the week. That is a machine making 668 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 1: a copper heat Sinc. Which helps remove heat from chips 669 00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 1: running in AI data centers. They require huge amounts of 670 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 1: electricity to run, much of which is wasted as heat, 671 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 1: and that's why data centers are transforming power demand around 672 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 1: the world. This was the subject of a recent Bloomberg 673 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 1: Big Take linked in the show notes. If you like 674 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: this episode, please take a moment to rate and review 675 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,160 Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode 676 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 1: with a friend or with someone who thinks their technology 677 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,200 Speaker 1: is underhyped. This episode was produced by Oscar Boyd and 678 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,920 Speaker 1: Daniel Waldorf. Our theme music is composed by wonder Le. 679 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:05,320 Speaker 1: Special thanks to shil Khan, Samersati, Moses Andem, Laura Milan 680 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 1: and Sharan chen i'm Akshatrati back soon.