1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg. Well, 5 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: I think the focus should be today as on rights. 6 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:32,599 Speaker 1: How low are they going to take rights? Do they 7 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: introduced tearing? And how will the markets respond to the 8 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: prospect of much lower interest rates at the c B. 9 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: We've got the right guest to get the start at 10 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: all that you bring in, Joyce Chang. But John the 11 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: zero hedge chart last night, which I made up years ago. 12 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 1: What I've forgotten about b double A corporates, the kind 13 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: of stuff you follow on the real yield see it 14 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: one PM Friday's Bloomberg Television Less the SMP dividend we 15 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: are over two standard d creations low and how those 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: rates have come in versus a stock dividend so usual time, 17 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: these are the bottom of the investment great stack. There 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: the credits that you're looking at, and a lot of 19 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: people have been worried about them because there's been a huge, 20 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: huge amount of debt that's been issued by some of 21 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: those companies, but actually they've held up pretty well through 22 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: the dynamics here into this dragon. Can I say this 23 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: is the biggest ECB meeting ever? I think I can say. 24 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: I think you can say it's the biggest one so 25 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: far this year. I don't think you can say it's 26 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 1: the biggest ever, but I think it's the biggest so far. 27 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: Joyce chaying with us now. JP Morgan Securities Global Research 28 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: Chair Joyce is great to see you. Let's talk about 29 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: the base case just quickly. We survey the economist here 30 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. Of them expect hui. The median forecast seems 31 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: to be to drop the depot rate from negative forty 32 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: to negative fifty and maybe you go again in December. 33 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: What are the team at JP Morgan looking for? So 34 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: we are looking for ten basis points, so we agree 35 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: with where the market it is right now. I mean 36 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: more importantly, what we're looking at is what's the forward guidance. 37 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: Are they really going to push out the communication to 38 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: the end of before they would actually um and and 39 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: be ready to move sooner if they needed to um 40 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: you know, bring rates down further. And it's the tearing 41 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: debate what that means for the banks. I mean, how 42 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: will this impact bank income and bank profitability? So we 43 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: think it's ten basis points. We think it's thirty billion 44 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: euros on the QUI for another nine months right now. 45 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: I think there is some space where the market could 46 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: be disappointed. But you know, it's a transition period, so 47 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: I don't think you can necessarily you move as aggressively 48 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: at this point as what the markets may be expecting 49 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: from some corners. I've spoken to money market participants who 50 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: believe the key element of today's package is what happens 51 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: with tearing now. The ECB in the official that are 52 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: out there seemed to be focused on QI, but for 53 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: market participants, in the speak that I speak to the 54 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: bank income, the bank profitability, and is there a way 55 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: basically not to penalize the bank so much for a 56 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: negative interest rate? So I think the market will look 57 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: at that and they look at the language. I'm tearing. 58 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: It's over the Boston Red Sox because having a bad morning. 59 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: Good morning with the red socks, you're always having a 60 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: bad morning. Great year last year, yeah, okay, it was 61 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: a good six months. I still can't believe we won 62 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I've just spoken before Kean Abohussin to me, 63 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: he's your most important person at JP Morgan, your European 64 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: bank analyst has to synthesize this for commercial banking in Europe. 65 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: This meeting can't be good for the profitability of European banks, 66 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: can it? Well? I think those are the longer term questions, 67 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: and we've been getting a lot of these types of 68 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: relative value questions. How are you looking at the health 69 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: of US banks versus European banks? So that's why the 70 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: cheering is really where the focus is from many of 71 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: the market participants to really take a look at bank income. 72 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: How's bankin come going to be impacted? Joyce the thing 73 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: I struggle with today for the banks in Europe and 74 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: for me, as for many people I know. Listen to 75 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: this program, you'll be looking at s x seven E, 76 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: which is the euro banks on the Bloomberg terminal, how 77 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: they respond to the package that gets delivered today. If 78 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: we do indeed get the full package in the short term, 79 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: I can see how tearing helps, but it won't be 80 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: too long before people start to think about hang on 81 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: a minute, you start to offset the pain a little 82 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,839 Speaker 1: bit for some of these banks. But with tearing, you've 83 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: just opened up a whole new range of possibilities for 84 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: how low interest rates of the e c B can 85 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: go very quickly. We could be talking about negative suffer 86 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: is seventy five basis points, then negative one percent. We 87 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: won't care about tearing in that context, will just be 88 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: looking at a rate that is going lower and lower 89 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: at the e c B. How important is it to 90 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 1: grapple with that issue right now? How can you have 91 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: any conviction on what Eurozone banks will be of the 92 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: direction of travel ultimately is lower interest rates? No? I 93 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: think that is absolutely Um. You know the case. Everybody 94 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: is looking at six now of our euro index as 95 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: a negative yield on it, and um a debate on 96 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: whether the U s could go to zero interest rates 97 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: eventually the China goes to zero interest rates. Nobody sees 98 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: you coming out of this very quickly. And I think 99 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: the discussion is going to turn to growth in Europe, 100 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: not just the bank profitability, but are we seeing your 101 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: technical recession? Joyce, I mean, everybody here's kind of nancy 102 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 1: mathematical knowledge of this. I love what Gina smile like 103 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: digging in the New York Times today with the upside 104 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: down headline for a world turned upside down by negative 105 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: rates on our listeners are listening to John Faro talk 106 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: about what John negatives? Did you say, Well, potentially, I'm 107 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: just looking at Switzerland at the moment they have tearing. 108 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: That's what rights are, Okay, So we get the German tenure. 109 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: Excuse me, the German two year to a negative one percent. 110 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: That's not healthy, is it? It's not healthy? And I 111 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: think you're going to see debates go on all the 112 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: central banks. People will look at Swiss National Bank, what 113 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: are they going to do? You see six out of 114 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: seventeen expecting a rate cut, But is that going to 115 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 1: actually move more aggressively as well? But there's also going 116 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: to be you look at what PBOC is doing, look 117 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 1: at what Brazil is doing. I mean we've got twenty 118 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: out of twenty two central banks that are easing right now. 119 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: So you do have synchronized but into John and below 120 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: the zero bound, it's not I think for money market 121 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: bight sessments today they hope that if DCB moves, they 122 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: only go by ten basis points. No one wants to 123 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: sing more than that. A lot of people are starting 124 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 1: to think about this concept, Joyce, of the reversal rate 125 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: and I would love for you to speak to that 126 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: for us. Are we at the point in Europe right 127 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: now where rate cuts are viewed by market participants as 128 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: negative that could lead to potentially tie to financial conditions, 129 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 1: to have adverse reactions by market participants and therefore negative 130 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: responses never negative reactions in the broader economy. Well, we 131 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: agree that ten basis points is really what the market 132 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: is expecting to If you did something more aggressive, that 133 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: might send a very different signal. I think what the 134 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: market is really looking for is as you have these 135 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: leadership changes come in your are you going to see 136 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: more focused on fiscal policy? Um and um affected Madame 137 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: Regard trots in and says we need more fiscal policy. 138 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: That's the easy part. Then you have to affect more 139 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,119 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. Well, you need to see what happens around 140 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: Germany on that debate. That's really the key. And I 141 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: think you know the question one has is whether the 142 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: growth numbers are going to come back. We're looking at 143 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: p m i's now that are at two thousand and 144 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: twelve levels on manufacturing, so there's a lot more concern 145 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: on the growth. Are we this morning, are we at 146 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: a point of what Mr Diamond would call macro prudential 147 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: risks or John Lipsky I think the former US force 148 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: at the I M F. Are we at a point 149 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: where Mr drog has to look at the broader, summed 150 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: risks and discrete risks of each European story. I don't 151 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: think that we're at this point yet. I mean, we're 152 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: not at a point where we did the Eurozone crisis 153 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: at all, but we are at a real inflection point 154 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: about the effectiveness of the policy tools, how many policy 155 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: tools are remaining, and where are we at this late 156 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: cycle on the growth outlook? And I think that the 157 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: focus will go back to the growth outlook. And you 158 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: know we have now a number of major economies going 159 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: into recession where the US, even at one and a 160 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: half percent grow than the three quarters is the best 161 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: growth outlook in the developed world. Thank you to all 162 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: your team for particularly with Jan Lewis. Would they really 163 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: the essay of the summer in our world of economics, 164 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: finance and invested. You have Alberto Gallo on the phone. 165 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: It's important to go to Mr gall Alberto, good morning 166 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: and thank you again to our economics team in Frankford 167 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 1: for their support in this. Alberto, this is absolutely historic, 168 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: absolutely original. Is this Jean Claude Triche's e c B. 169 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: I think that what we're seeing here is a complete 170 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: resignation to the fact that UM by dvs NG and 171 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: negative rates are going to stay with us forever, for 172 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: a very very long time. UM the twenty billion a 173 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: month is UM an open ended after purchase program, so 174 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: UM it is essentially the Quey infinity world that we wear. 175 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 1: I agree, yeah, Alberto, this is so important, the physics 176 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: of bio draggy, the mathematical physics that you're uh, you know, 177 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: I think of others in Europe that that have have 178 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: led on this. It's original territory, without question. Does your 179 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: fixed income world and the knock on of other asset 180 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: classes and the incentives to business, do they move along 181 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: with full faith and credit reaction. Does the market stay 182 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: LinkedIn correlated together or do you suggest instabilities off this 183 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: new drug policy. The good scenario is governments will follow 184 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: up and do some spending, particularly Germany and France because 185 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: now they can essentially get paid to borrow. If you 186 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: think about you know, Germany thirty year is at minus 187 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: point zero seven, so they're they're they're getting seven basis 188 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: points and the ten yere is at minus sixty three, 189 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: so they're getting paid point six um point to borrow 190 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: with a tenure horizon. If governments don't follow up and 191 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: don't do spending, and you have the risk of creating 192 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: a Japan type economy where people hold cash because populations 193 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: in Europe are aging and Dave Moore, if returns are lower, well, well, 194 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: well said. I want to bring Paul Sweeney in here. 195 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: But one more question before Mr Sweeney wanders in, and 196 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: that's what do the Germans think of that? How does 197 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: axel Weber respond to this? I know Jens Vibin's and 198 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: the cross airs right now. I stood with otmar Issing 199 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: in the nascent ECB building, the old one years ago 200 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: and there was a Germanic feel. Is that gone? I 201 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: think the issue is for Germany there, you know, there 202 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: there's a there's a long debate on spending, and we've 203 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: seen improvements on um on the debate with a discussion 204 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: around exiting the black deuro, the black deer deficit, and 205 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: also a green stimulus, a bit similar to you know, 206 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: the green stimulus that's been discussed in the US UM. 207 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,479 Speaker 1: The question that is when and how this would be implemented, 208 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: because the government still keeps these things as a put option, 209 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: not for for people. In Germany. Generally we have seen 210 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 1: higher savings rates because when you say returns going down, 211 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: then you know you you have you have a pension 212 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: that's uh that you have to fund and you start 213 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: seeking How big a defeat was this today for the Germans? 214 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: I mean, how miserable is Axels that were listening tomorrow 215 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: dragg and reading the headlines on as Bloomberg. I think 216 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: Germany is better off because they have negative yields, they 217 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: fund more cheaply. And let's not forget that Germany is 218 00:11:56,160 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: the biggest beneficiary from a lower euro. Um we estimated 219 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: that the Eurozone benefits everyone. You know, there's more economies 220 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: of scale, people can go across borders, and companies can 221 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: invest more freely. But Germany has taken over a third 222 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: of the advantages of the pond of the benefits because 223 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: they have the biggest benefits from having a lower euro 224 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: because of experts. Um of their experts are in an economy. 225 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: So I think Germans are you know, they pretend to complain, 226 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: but they're pretty happy about what a very low euro 227 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: Alberta gallo with us a headline from Mr Drag, the 228 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 1: ECB will carry out strategic review under leguard. We're gonna 229 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: have a strategic review and let Paul Sweeney run it 230 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: for is Paul, why don't you jump in here? Was 231 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 1: futures up eight in the euro one oh nine fifty 232 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: six dollars stronger, Alberta. How surprised were you, if at all, 233 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: about Mr drag characterization of the actual meeting itself that 234 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: there was so much support for easing that no vote 235 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: was needed. My personal interpretation, I we spoke about it 236 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: earlier this morning. Thing is that the dissent that was 237 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: flagged by some easy B members in the past few 238 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: days was actually a way to lower market expectations and 239 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: allow the easy bit to surprise with less. Market expectations 240 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: were very high. Some people expected forty billion a month 241 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: and there's just not enough pounds to buy um. But 242 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: what they are doing with twenty billion for a very 243 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: long time, you know, twenty billion forever, let's call it 244 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: is essentially trying to anchor the cost of spending for governments, 245 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: trying to anchor the long end of the treasury cur 246 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,079 Speaker 1: in German, in France and Italy so that governments can 247 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: spend more. So I think that drug has Drug has 248 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: always been able to master consensus, and I think in 249 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,719 Speaker 1: the end the compromise is UM to to UM to 250 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: reduce the volatility of funding costs for governments and then 251 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: try to stimulate governments to spend, which is what the 252 00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: next president. The next president's job will be connect Monty 253 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: policy to fiscal policy. So let's let's go there. What 254 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,680 Speaker 1: kind of tools are in the toolbox does the ECB 255 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: president have to incent governments to spend? Not many, but 256 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: the not many direct tools, but with the right instruments, 257 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: you can have a combination similar to what Tarp did 258 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: in the US. You can have a combination of loose 259 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: monetary policy with positive fisical policy. Europe is taking like 260 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: a decade to get there because obviously there's a lot 261 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: of moving parts. But for example, the European Union could 262 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: increase its budget. They there could be green bonds or 263 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: European Investment Bank e i B bonds that fund infrastructure 264 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: and that are that are bought by the ECB as 265 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: part of the program. So this is for example, one 266 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: of the options on the table. I think next year 267 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: we'll have the Monetary Policy Review, which lasts several months, 268 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: and we may see more ideas like this which target 269 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: more the real economy rather than just buying bonds in 270 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: the financial market. Yeah, Calumny skeptical here on cutting rates 271 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: and buying twenty billion dollars or twenty billion euros of bonds. 272 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: It's gonna come down to fiscal stimulus at some point. 273 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: Yet we heard from the Germans recently that there still 274 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: is no political support for that. So is there is 275 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: there some catalysts out there that you think certain governments 276 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: need to see or feel before they can really make 277 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: that big fundamental shift. Unfortunately, in the core European countries 278 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: where economic fundamentals are still better, I think the catalysts 279 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: that they're waiting for our negative events. For example, if 280 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: you had a recession next year, or if you were 281 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: close to zero growth, which is which is in the 282 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: base case, or if the US imposes card tariffs, or 283 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: if there's a heart Brexit, then I'm sure you would 284 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: see a German spending plan coming up. So at the moment, 285 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: it is a put option rather than a product. The 286 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: plant the risk with this is that it may be 287 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: too little, too late, So I think there needs to 288 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: be a productive plan. Albertagalo, thank you so much. With 289 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: Algebras just a superb, superb perspective. This morning, we're looking 290 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: at Frankford and Mario drag I did the back of 291 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: the bow tie calculation off their forecast for next year, 292 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: added up animal spirits, top line g d P in 293 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: Europe would be a vast two point two percent. That 294 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: does not get it done. To cut the ambiguity of 295 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: that is Marcus Ashworth. He's with Bloomberg Opinion and Rights 296 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: exceptionally trenchant essays on the ambiguities of whatever the theme is. Okay, Marcus, 297 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: here's the ambiguity. Mario Draggy affects what he will. We 298 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: get a low rate environment which accommodates business and sustains business. 299 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: And the other side of the coin is Mario Draggy 300 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: develops a low rate forever strategy which breaks the back 301 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: of confidence in business. Revenue goes down. How do you 302 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: cut that over the next twenty four months for European 303 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: and United Kingdom business? I mean, which way does it cut? 304 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,199 Speaker 1: It's it's fiscal policy. We all know that in the 305 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: sense that he's creating the you know, he's thinking he's 306 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: best keeping this plate spinning. Um, he's open ended quei. 307 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: I mean, it's the perfect weapon to keep the Euro 308 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 1: in check. If you know, the set does get more 309 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: aggressive on rate carts and all the US economy dips, 310 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: that will push the Euro up and it will kill 311 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: off any any hope that Europe has of getting out 312 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: this manufacturing recession, which it's clearly you know, put pointed 313 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: right at so and he's done a broadbrush stuff. He's 314 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: kept everyone on board. Super skillful, ill maestro. He hands 315 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: out of the guard with the perfect bat on pass. 316 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: She's got the ability to cut rates more, she's got 317 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: the ability to increase qui. She's doing ability to widen 318 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 1: out what type of qui that being much more generous 319 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: the banks with these cheap loans called tel traits. It's 320 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 1: a it's a complete package. And look, they've emphasized ever 321 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: more more aggressively that it needs to be matched with 322 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. That's what the god allegedly skilled, skillfull ability 323 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: to coordinate with the your E leaders, and that's what's 324 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: needed to break that obvious the E coostomy. As you 325 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: mentioned it, it's a drill dilemma. You know, you cut rates, 326 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: but all it's goning is you're digging at the whole 327 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: ever deeper, and that's actually going to be detrimental to 328 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: the economy. Even they're not extremely careful. It's interesting. Markets. 329 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: Just give us a sense of magnitude of the twenty 330 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: billion euros in terms of the bond buying. Just give 331 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: us a sense of enough not enough. Just we're just 332 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: kind of showing a little bit of show. Yeah, that's 333 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: exactly right. It's doing it in the twenty billion is 334 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: perhaps less than someone expected, but at least it is happening. 335 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: It's back on the agenda they said at the end 336 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: of last year. This was it. No more bond buying. 337 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: We're calling a hole to KWI. The backstone won't start 338 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: from the number one with the back ten months later. Therefore, 339 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 1: redoing this to anybody and is quite modest. But the 340 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: point is is that clear the clear the market is 341 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: prepared to go to forty or fifty. Didn't know it 342 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: and coming The Chief Economists pointed out that to have 343 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: the same impact on GDPs ahead, but their omittial or 344 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: of qui they could could do hundred billions. Now that's 345 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 1: that's in the future. He's leaving that ability to look guard. 346 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: He's setting out all the smogest boarder of options to 347 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: pick up on. Have you seen a Vectors study If 348 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: they do twenty gazillion a month, I guess is the 349 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: number when it runs dry? I mean there's got to 350 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: be a point out there in a Vector's study one year, 351 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 1: two years, three years, five years out where there's nothing 352 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 1: more to buy. They have to start buying apple shares. Yeah, 353 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: like the like the Spiss National Bank sextually did. Look, 354 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: they can buy bank bonds, they can buy green bonds, 355 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,959 Speaker 1: that can buy the phones. How long for bonds they 356 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: can keep on buying? I mean this the point is 357 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: they've matched open end QUEI with the rate cycle. Now 358 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: there's none of this nonsense about you know, six months 359 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 1: forward or year forward. It's it's forever until until just 360 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: before they actually start hiking rates. So the point is 361 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: that they give themselves flexibility and they can alter their 362 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: limits to increase it from thirty of any one issue 363 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: or anyone country, and they can widen out what they buy. Paul, 364 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 1: was this some point? Was this in the textbooks at Duke. 365 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: This is not this is not what I learned in 366 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: business school. And Marcus, I mean it seems like, you know, 367 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: the ECB maybe going the way of Japan. I'm not 368 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: sure that's where Mario dragging wants to take. Well, look 369 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: how the curves flattened, and you've seen banks sell off 370 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 1: quite sharply because of that. Were now we could argue 371 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: that the reality of negative rates the first time another 372 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: rate cup for um three years has happened, that that 373 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: that's shocked the banks a bit. But it's the curve flattening, 374 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: and that means they're that it's just smichest gonna get squeezed, 375 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: which is what what actually told me. Your point was 376 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: initially is that this is the this is the dichotomy 377 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: is it's are you going to write on this today 378 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: or are you like home from window. I'm prepping as 379 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: we speak. Very good, Marcus Asher, thank you so much, 380 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: very valuable. Really, I can't say enough about he cuts 381 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: the ambiguities or whatever the issue is. Paul Sween, you 382 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: give me the schedule. Here is it eight o'clock tonight 383 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: when I need to watch Red Sucks baseball. I think 384 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: that's exactly when you want to tune in. But first 385 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: seven thirty with Kevin si really, Kevin Cereuli. Let's go 386 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: to Mr Sireli now in in Houston, Kevin just because 387 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: the time, I want to cut to the chase Biden 388 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: and Warren. What does the Vice president need to accomplish 389 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: against the senator from Massachusetts. He needs to try to 390 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,199 Speaker 1: stop her momentum. And that's why you've seen these pre 391 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: debate attacks coming from the Biden campaign. With regards to 392 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 1: Senator Elizabeth Warren. You've got Ed Rundell, the former governor 393 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, out in an op ed in the Washington 394 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 1: Post calling her a hypocrite with regards to how she 395 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: has fundraised. But candidly, when I talked to supporters of 396 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: Senator Elizabeth Warren, they would love to have that debate 397 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: every day of the week. They feel that that just 398 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: offers them an opportunity to provide a contrast between Biden's 399 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: more centrist approach to economics versus Elizabeth Warren's. But look 400 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 1: for a breakout moment from one of the other candidates, 401 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: the Castros, the Clobachar's bookers, so to speak, to see 402 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: if they can try to make what is increasingly become 403 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 1: a three way race into a four or five way 404 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: race heading into the later fall. Kevin, that was gonna 405 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: be That's kind of my question here. We had Kamala 406 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: Harris kind of have one of those moments at the 407 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: last debate, but she seems to have lost her momentum. 408 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: What's going on there? Well, I think that she was 409 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: unable to get to get out of the pack, so 410 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 1: to speak, after that momentum that she obtained earlier in Miami. 411 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: And when I talked to Progressive that they say is well, 412 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: her plans aren't progressive enough, and she was attacked by 413 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: Census for the plan is not being set to the 414 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: plants team to Progressive. She hasn't really been able to 415 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: solidify her support in any which way in terms of 416 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: which policy approach she wants to take. Kevin Surli, thank 417 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:30,239 Speaker 1: you so much. This is the perfect guest to dovetail. Well, 418 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 1: we're all gonna see tonight. Charles Gabriel has been doing 419 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 1: this for a while. I mean, Paul, you can appreciate 420 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: this institutional investor, all American team every every year for 421 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: twelve years exactly. You don't you know who did he know? 422 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 1: Exactly exactly bringing in the great Chuck Chuck Gabriel, President 423 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: of Cappa Alpha Partners. Chuck, thanks so much for joining us. 424 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 1: You know, we've got, as Tom Wood does suggest me, 425 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 1: perhaps the first real Democratic debate tonight. What do you 426 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: expect to see tonight? What do you think is going 427 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 1: to be the theme? Thanks to thank you, Paul well. I. 428 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: You know, I do agree that there's there's probably more 429 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 1: focused than is deserved on Senator Warren and whether she 430 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 1: might really either have a bit of a tiff with 431 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, because it's pretty clear that you know, the 432 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: Vice president has about a quarter of the vote, has 433 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 1: been very very steady, but doesn't really generate a lot 434 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 1: of enthusiasm with because he's moderate. Then you've got at 435 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: least a third of the vote with with Senator Warren 436 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 1: and Senator Sanders, which really is very much more on 437 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 1: the left side of the party wing. And then you've got, 438 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of others that would be moderates. 439 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: The two would be moderates and Kamala Harris and Boudeges, 440 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: but they can't get more than I mid to high 441 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: single digits. And then you've got a lot of others 442 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: that as you mentioned that like O'roorican Book or in 443 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: clob Orchestro and Yang that you know, those swing a way. 444 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 1: But so far after three debates, it doesn't seem like 445 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: any of those are going to break through. So this 446 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: is we're just going to see if if Mr Biden 447 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: makes any mistakes, as Senator Warren really, uh, if there's 448 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 1: any pile up on her. She one of the one 449 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: of the great headlines I saw was that she arrives 450 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 1: at this debate with great momentum, but uh, you know, 451 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: a target on her back. Uh, and then you know, 452 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: well we'll see about that that middle but you know, 453 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: it's a long way four nineteen days, fourteen months till 454 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: the election that the Trump might lose the election. So 455 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: Wall Streets not particularly concerned yet. So Chuck is, as 456 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: you talked to your investor clients and you know you 457 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: kind of, you know, kind of game this out a 458 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,880 Speaker 1: little bit. We've got the former Vice president Biden kind 459 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: of with a lead here if he or someone like 460 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,439 Speaker 1: him were to get in office. Do you have you 461 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: identified kind of sectors that would be winners and losers 462 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: here with with Biden? Yes, yeah, I think I think 463 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 1: Vice President Biden is is more of the same from 464 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: the Obama year. So I think that they're probably dobably. 465 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 1: There would be some relief in the health care sector. Um, 466 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: you know, there were there are those that would benefit 467 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: from uh, you know, expansion of basically Medicaid and Medicare 468 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: under you know, the old Obamacare. So I think that 469 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: you'd have some healthcare sector winners. Um, you haven't. You'd 470 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: have some relief probably, you know, it wouldn't be as 471 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 1: negative for the energy sector, for instance. But other than that, 472 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: you know, it's it'd be just sort of a return 473 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 1: to Obama type administration. And and the big deal would 474 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: be whether or not he'd be dealing with a continued 475 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: Republican Senate, because if that's the case, we're looking at 476 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: probably blessed gridlock. I mean blessed gridlock. There was a time, 477 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 1: Chuck Gabriel, where you and I would talk and I 478 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: have seven policy things to talk about, and we'd only 479 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 1: get the three or four. Now there's zero. Does your 480 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 1: world really matter at this debate? I mean, does policy 481 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 1: really matter in the great culture War known as America? No, 482 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't. I really don't think so. But 483 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 1: but I think that those that are looking ahead, trying 484 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 1: to skate to where the puck is going to be. Tom, 485 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: you know, I think that they're they're eyeing Senator Senator 486 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 1: Warren in particular, because you know, it's pretty clear that 487 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: all of the Democrats are sort of on one side 488 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: or the other, you know, of Medicare for all and 489 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,639 Speaker 1: a green New Deal. There's a pretty clear challenge and 490 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: a transformative story ahead and energy and health. But she 491 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 1: would create a threat third leg of sorts, a third 492 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: leg of a school taking on Wall Street itself, and 493 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: she knows how to do it. She knows where the 494 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 1: pressure points are as a former TARP Commission chairman and 495 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 1: a Senator member for for now seven years and counting. 496 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 1: So I think that there's there's concern about what accendency 497 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: of Warren could mean four Wall Street in particular, but 498 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 1: it's far too early. A really good I mean, I 499 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: could go on about Wayne Gretzky, and I'm asking you 500 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,440 Speaker 1: if President Trump is there there is a second Wayne Gretzky, 501 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 1: but we won't go there. Chuck Gabriel's always thank you 502 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: so much, really really appreciate having a mind with capital alpha. 503 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 1: We'll shipped gears now with the look at the life 504 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: and legacy of an oil giant. Tea Boon Pickens, the 505 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: Texas oil man, billionaire energy investor, and television pitchman for 506 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,439 Speaker 1: wind and natural gas powers, died of natural causes following 507 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,159 Speaker 1: a series of strokes in recent years. He was we 508 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: get more on the famous and controversial businessman now from 509 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 1: blue Bergs. Bob Mouton, there's a temptation to use the 510 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: word legendary when describing Tea Boon Pickens, but out of 511 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 1: respect for the sensitivity he expressed about the term, he 512 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: won't be hearing it here. He figured it was just 513 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: another way of saying he was old. You know when 514 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 1: legendary came into it when I seventy. Thomas Boone Pickens Jr. 515 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,719 Speaker 1: Was born in and the cow town of Holdenville, Oklahoma, 516 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: near the Greater Seminole oil field, which had been discovered 517 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 1: a year earlier. The family's roots in England intersected with 518 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,719 Speaker 1: those of Daniel Boone. He said, his grandmother counseled him 519 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: to never forget where he came from. Pickens would recall 520 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: his first lesson in growing a business was delivering newspapers. 521 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: One day he was handed a windfall when he found 522 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: a lost wallet that belonged to a customer who gave 523 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: him a reward of one dollar. That was big money 524 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: because my paper out had twenty eight papers on and 525 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: I made every day one cent for paper ned, so 526 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: I was making twenty eight cents a day. And let 527 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: me tell you that one in peanuts. Twenty eight cents 528 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 1: a day, and I wasn't throwing it around either. I 529 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: saved it, he said. When he arrived back home waiving 530 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: his reward money around, his mother and grandmother insisted that 531 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: he returned it immediately because they said they weren't going 532 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 1: to see anyone rewarded for simply being honest. It was 533 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: a formative lesson that the head of his alma mater, 534 00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 1: Oklahoma State University, President Burns. Hargess, says, Picken never forgot boon. 535 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 1: Is a very honorable man. He keeps his word, which 536 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: might sound like a contradiction for a man who achieved 537 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 1: fame and fortune as a corporate reader making hostile takeover 538 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: bids in the nineteen seventies and eighties. In his first 539 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 1: job after graduating in nineteen fifty one, he followed his 540 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: father into the oil business. He worked three years for 541 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: Phillips Petroleum, or, as he later told it, he was 542 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: troubled by the waist and inefficiency he witnessed. He quit 543 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: Phillips in nineteen fifty four and formed a company that 544 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 1: would become known as Mesa Petroleum and would grow to 545 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: one of the largest independent U S producers of oil 546 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: and gas, going after takeover targets companies that Pickens believed 547 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: were inefficient and undervalued. Some industry executives branded him a pirate, 548 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 1: but they couldn't dismiss him as an outsider. This is 549 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 1: a man who was one of the original wildcatters and 550 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: amassed a huge amount of oil and natural gas resources. 551 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,320 Speaker 1: He was really someone who just saw the future. Bloomberg 552 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 1: reporter Alex Steele notes, though, that his visionary image suffered 553 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: big set x when oil prices plunged with the financial crisis, 554 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 1: and his grassroots campaign to wean America off OPEC oil 555 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: by building wind farms proved to be a costly miscalculation 556 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: earlier than most people would have thought. And we're talking 557 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: oh seven o eight in Texas. He had a huge 558 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 1: push upper wind turbine. I'm Taboon Pickens. I've been an 559 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: ol man my whole life, but this is one emergency 560 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: we can't drill our way out of. He later lamented 561 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 1: that he lost hundreds of millions of dollars with his 562 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 1: mistimed bet Gone with the Wind, even as he continued 563 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 1: to support the future of renewable energy in his two 564 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 1: thousand eight memoir The First Billion Is the Hardest, and 565 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 1: in interviews, Pickens would point out he actually earned most 566 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: of his wealth as an energy investor in his later years. 567 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: You know, I didn't do that till I was seventy. 568 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: It was after seventy that I made that first billion. 569 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 1: When Forbes estimated his net worth had slumped to less 570 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: than a billion dollars in twenty thirteen, Pickens tweeted, don't worry. 571 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 1: At nine hundred fifty million, I'm doing fine, but he 572 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: vowed he would try to make it all back. He 573 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 1: told Bloomberg Elevation in anyone could do it with enough 574 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,959 Speaker 1: hard work. I've had people say, well, why don't you 575 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 1: step back and let somebody else get up to its 576 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: feed trough? The feed trough in Americas it's infinity. His 577 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 1: health failing, though, Pickens decided to close his Dallas based 578 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: pp Capital Hedge fund, early last year, writing on his 579 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 1: website that he wanted to invest instead in promoting unbridled 580 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: entrepreneurship and philanthropic and political endeavors. Former Oklahoma Chief Supreme 581 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,000 Speaker 1: Court Justice Steve Taylor says that became his new passion. 582 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 1: He wanted to enjoy the fun of giving away money 583 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 1: and seeing what happened with that money, scholarships, football stadiums, 584 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: engineering schools, hospitals. His fans will miss his homespun tips 585 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 1: for success that came to be known fondly as buonisms. 586 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: How I say work eight hours, sleep eight hours. Be 587 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: sure they're not the same eight hours. Asked in one 588 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 1: of his last interviews for his favorite buonism, Pickens offered 589 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 1: this cautionary council. The higher the monkey climbs the tree 590 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 1: there where people can see his and he used a 591 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 1: three letter word for backside t Boon. Pickens was ninety 592 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 1: one years old. I'm Bob Moon Bloomberg Surveillance, Bob Moon. 593 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 1: That was fantastic retrospective on the life and times of 594 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: te Boon and Pickens and what amazes me Thomas just 595 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: the rollercoaster of his career and how he was able 596 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: to come back after some just some amazing setback. And 597 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 1: I would talk about Oklahoma and um no O s U. 598 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 1: And he was at College Station when my father was 599 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: there Texas. A and M. Yeah, my father would laugh 600 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 1: about him. He was a basketball guy. He made twenty 601 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 1: five bucks a month. And in the twelfth Man magazine 602 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 1: for A and M. They say the ten worst mistakes 603 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: in history. A and M was letting boot pickings. It's great, 604 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: he said. He was a character. That's right. You know, 605 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 1: they weren't close friends, but he knew who he was. 606 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 1: He was like big man on campus. I think he 607 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 1: was maybe a year or two out of my father. 608 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 1: But A and M has never forgiven giving him up 609 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 1: to the folks up in Oklahoma. Yeah, exactly. And he's 610 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 1: been certainly a wonderful benefactor, wonderful supporter of Oklahoma State University, 611 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,560 Speaker 1: and certainly they're athletic depart Remember the fear of Mason 612 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,839 Speaker 1: was like, you know, I really can't say folks enough 613 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: where he almost invented Yeah, I mean, it's a little 614 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 1: bit like Mr Singer and Elliott. Now maybe he's an equivalent. Yeah, 615 00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:24,880 Speaker 1: I mean I came on Wall Street in the mid 616 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 1: eighties and I was just when the whole corporate raider 617 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 1: thing was really and junk bond financed raiders, and they're 618 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 1: they're a handful of them, but t Boon in the 619 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,960 Speaker 1: energy space, he was, uh the big player in that space, 620 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,800 Speaker 1: really kind of reshuffling and a lot of the energy 621 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 1: assets at that time of putting the fear into CEOs 622 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,720 Speaker 1: and boards as well. We've done no corporate jet today. 623 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: I mean at home last night, I had, you know, 624 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 1: various offspring sing I like the yellow phone, I like 625 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,759 Speaker 1: the break right, Like I mean, what does Tim Cook 626 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: know about my family? I don't know exactly. So you 627 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: know it's Apple is uh you know, they're going all 628 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 1: in on their services business and uh, you know, so 629 00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing Apple TV, we're seeing Apple gaming. I know 630 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,560 Speaker 1: you're gonna be gaming, you're away on your Apple device 631 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 1: coming out about what's it called arcade or something. I think, so, yeah, 632 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 1: we'll have to get Matt cantriment on it kind of 633 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 1: explain it to us. But uh, you know, they're getting 634 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 1: into just it's not about devices for them. It's obviously 635 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,680 Speaker 1: about trying to drive the services on the devices. And 636 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 1: they've got over a couple, you know, over a billion 637 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,839 Speaker 1: of them out there so certainly some some upside. Now 638 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:28,719 Speaker 1: we will see. It's been an extraordinary to you. Thank 639 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 1: you to Colin Tipton and all our team, particularly our 640 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 1: team in Frankfurt, Germany, h Matt Miller and of course 641 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,919 Speaker 1: all of Bloomberg Economics in Europe for just extraordinary team 642 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 1: coverage of what we saw on the ECB. Mr Drag 643 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: He did not disappoint. It was wild there. At one 644 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:47,839 Speaker 1: point markets of vs back a little bit, I want 645 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,240 Speaker 1: to make that clear, the euro stronger on the headlines, 646 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,720 Speaker 1: and then dropped like a rock almost down I believe 647 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 1: to where we were into day Low's earlier in the month, 648 00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 1: and we've come back nicely. Now you're a dollar one 649 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 1: tenth or D three sort of a side of relief 650 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,360 Speaker 1: is to me. The headline is uh not q E 651 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:11,440 Speaker 1: out to one, but it's very urst language for as 652 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: long as it takes. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 653 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 654 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 655 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,880 Speaker 1: Tom Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 656 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:32,439 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio