1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Boo, Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now to 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 2: discuss that is the former IMF Chief economist Ken rogof 11 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: Ken It's going to. 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 3: See you, sir, Good to see you. 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 4: You wrote a. 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 2: Piece in the South China Morning Post. I believe questioning 15 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 2: whether we could see the same boom this time around 16 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 2: as we saw last time around. And I want to 17 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 2: be clear, and I'm going to do this for you 18 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: and give you some credit. Back in sixteen seventeen, you 19 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: weren't pessimistic on the Trump economy going into it. You 20 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 2: were somewhat constructive. Is we're very very downbeat, So what's 21 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 2: changed for you? Personally? 22 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 5: People were unhappy when I said that, but I think 23 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 5: it was closer to true than not. Well, I mean, 24 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 5: for one thing, if we're just looking at policies, the 25 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 5: things that he did and the first term I think 26 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 5: on the whole were constructive, as you say, for the economy, deregulation, 27 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 5: the tax cuts, getting rid of the state and local deduction, 28 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 5: I think was actually a good move over. 29 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 6: The long term. 30 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 5: And this time every campaign practice promised practically is something counterproductive. 31 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 5: I mean you could go to the tariffs, social Security 32 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 5: being not taxed, and on and on and on. So 33 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 5: you know, it's less obvious that he has the same 34 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 5: room to run with his policies. And when he came 35 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 5: interest rates were zero. Now they're not. Our bill for 36 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 5: debt was you know, a couple hundred billion a year. 37 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 5: Now it's pushing a trillion. So he has a lot 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 5: of strengths that he didn't face the first time. So 39 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 5: I don't think we can expect quite the boom that 40 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 5: we got the last time. 41 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 2: Ken was doing a panel at the World Economic Forum 42 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 2: a little bit earlier this morning. Fantastic lineup, and you're 43 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: also alongside Ruggaraja, who we'll catch up with in about 44 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 2: five or ten minutes time. You mentioned that we're now 45 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: spending more on our interests in America than we are 46 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 2: in our defense. Do you think we are at that 47 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: tipping point where this becomes problematic or are we not 48 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: there yet? 49 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 5: We hit it a while ago. I mean, I don't 50 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 5: know about tipping point to crisis. But interest rates had 51 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 5: been going down and down in the whole world, and 52 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 5: I'm sure you interviewed them here over the years. Secular 53 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 5: stagnation lower forever. That's very ingrained in the mindset, and 54 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 5: it met in Washington and a lot of policy think 55 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 5: tanks at the central banks. Dat is free, nothing to 56 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 5: worry about. But when the interest rates are this high, 57 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 5: then you start to have to think about it. I mean, 58 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 5: so we're running a six point seven percent depsit on 59 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 5: top of or I don't know, thirty five trillion dollar debt. 60 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 5: You start to pile up an interest bill, and I 61 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 5: think we've reached a moment where things have tanged. It's 62 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 5: the interest rate that's turned. It has happened. It's not 63 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 5: Donald Trump. I think it would have happened just as 64 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 5: much if Harris had won. 65 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: And you point out that right now where interest rates 66 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: are would add two to three percent to the deficit 67 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 1: of the United States over the coming years, just based 68 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: on where rates are currently, do you think they will 69 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: stay here? Do you think that they're going to go up? 70 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: You said, you know, last time we spoke to you, 71 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: that the FED couldn't necessarily cut that much. 72 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 2: Can they cut again? 73 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: Are they going to have to hike? 74 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 5: Well, let's start with the long term rates. I don't 75 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 5: think they're going lower outside of a recession. In fact, 76 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 5: if I had to look at the arc of the 77 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 5: next five years, I think we'll get another burst of 78 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 5: inflation sometime within the next five to seven years, and 79 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 5: this time we will not get a free pass. Inflation 80 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 5: expectations will go up and interest rates will go up 81 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 5: even more. But for now, I think think they're settled, 82 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 5: you know, around in the four and a half five 83 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 5: range that they probably going to stay. Maybe in a 84 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 5: recession going down, I mean, the Fed's a different matter. 85 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 5: But my guess is where we are at the moment, 86 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 5: is the odds of a hiker as good as the 87 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 5: odds of a cut. 88 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 6: I think the. 89 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,679 Speaker 5: FED was way off the mark on where the neutral 90 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 5: interest rate was, and that's what I found in my 91 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 5: research on They're adjusting. They're starting to see that, And 92 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 5: I don't think it's just what's going on the second. 93 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 5: I think it's a longer term phenomenon. 94 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: You were not very positive on the potential for the 95 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: first Trump term. You're much less positive this time around, 96 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: as John was mentioning, And I'm just wondering what that 97 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: lack of positivity looks like in contrast to all the 98 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: optimism we're hearing from all the bankers. 99 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 5: So just to be clear, I don't have Trump derangement syndrome. 100 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 5: I try to have an I try to have an objective, you. 101 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 2: Know, trying to give you that pass that. 102 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,559 Speaker 5: We're starting at a very strong this is a question, 103 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:02,239 Speaker 5: and we've been booming for a while. It's a different picture, 104 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 5: you know, somewhat than when he came in before. And 105 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 5: you know, so just based on that, it's not as 106 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 5: obvious that it would do well where I wouldn't quite 107 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 5: say recessions around the corner, but it's not as many 108 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 5: miles away as it was, you know, at one time. 109 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 5: But also the uh, you know, I think certainly corrections 110 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 5: to some of the things Biden did are welcome. 111 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 6: I get it. 112 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 5: Why so much of corporate America feels the wicked Witch 113 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 5: is dead, and you know, now they can finally, you know, 114 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 5: breathe freely on a lot of different dimensions. 115 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 2: We drove down on that just a little bit. I 116 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 2: understand it. The wicked Witch is dead. He was hardly 117 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 2: warm and fuzzy with corporate America. GDP was pretty decent. 118 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 2: These guys wetuwn out record profits quarter on quarter. Many 119 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 2: of them were what is actually going to change fundamentally? 120 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 2: So the underlying economy GDP growth, corporate profits, well. 121 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 5: I mean, the sustainability of what's going on is its 122 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 5: highly questionable. So yes, GDP growth was good, but we 123 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 5: have this massive deficit we're running. I mean, all these 124 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 5: Keynesians were saying the multipliers too. In other words, for 125 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 5: every percent deficit you run, you get two percent growth. 126 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 5: We're running double the deficit, more than doubles that we're 127 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 5: getting in growth. 128 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 6: Now. 129 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 5: The immigration was probably larger than the official numbers by 130 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 5: a considerable margin, and that also is contributing to growth. 131 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 5: These things are not sustainable. But yeah, I mean, neverthing, 132 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 5: you know. So it's true. You're right that some of 133 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 5: what's going on was going to run out at some point. 134 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 5: So it's a more difficult situation that he's inheriting. 135 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: The death story is terrible. We all agree on that. 136 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 2: Any evidence that people are pulling back from the US 137 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 2: dollar and doubles denominated assets. 138 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 5: With that in mind, well, the interest rate is the 139 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 5: vote that they have. I mean, so I think our 140 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 5: markets are very dollar oriented. Over the very long run, 141 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 5: there could be more fragmentation that Chinese don't like the system. 142 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 5: You know, you heard the session I was in this 143 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 5: morning in Kyuzhin, who's a great brilliant economists originally from China, 144 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 5: was talking about everything they're doing to build away from 145 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 5: the dollar. 146 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 3: If you go back to the. 147 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 5: Sixties, the Europe was moving towards trying to have its 148 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 5: own currency, and the dollar before it broke off, a 149 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 5: lot of things were starting to be denominated in deutsch mark's. 150 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 5: So you know, there's some gradual movement. But the big thing, 151 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 5: you know, certainly is that the interest rates are going up, 152 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 5: and that's people. 153 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 3: Are requiring more. 154 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 5: If they love the dollars so much, why don't they 155 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 5: love it at one in one point seventy five percent 156 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 5: for the tenure, which is what they were taking you know, 157 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 5: five years ago. 158 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: This is something that a lot of people were talking 159 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: about that the US can afford to borrow more and 160 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: more if the dollar is strong. You wrote a book 161 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: about the dollar and the loss of its reserve currency status. 162 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: Is it going to closer as a result of the 163 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: deficits that we're seeing right now? Are you seeing that 164 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: time frame brought forward? 165 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 6: So? 166 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 5: I have a book coming out in May called Our 167 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 5: Dollar Year Problem that deals with us and some of 168 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 5: your colleagues may have seen some early version, but you know, 169 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 5: the dollar has just soared beyond anything people expected. There 170 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 5: were several turns, not just the value, but it's footprint. 171 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 5: But surely over time they're forces that are going to 172 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 5: push that back. Crypto may not take over the legal economy, 173 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 5: but the illegal economy, the underground economy, which in my 174 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 5: work I find twenty percent of the global economy that's 175 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 5: up for grabs, and China clearly needs to pull away. 176 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 5: If China pulls away, then it pulls other people with them. 177 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 3: That's a slow process. 178 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, I think, you know, we've had 179 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 5: a great run. It's not over, but we might be 180 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 5: looking at a little bit last sage are in a prevalence. 181 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 3: In the future. 182 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 2: Ken we could talk all day, but we're eating into 183 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 2: raggedge times, so we got to go. 184 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 3: Don't want to do that. 185 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 2: To see sir, you got to catch up. Thank you. 186 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 2: Ken Rogoff there, the former IMF Chief Economists and so 187 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: much more joining us sat at the World Economic Forum. 188 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 2: I'm pleased to say Gary Cohen, the IBM Vice chairman 189 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: and former National Economic Council Director under Donald Trump. Gary 190 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: or Gary's going to see you. 191 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 6: Great to be here. 192 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 2: Thanks very We mentioned this the last time we caught 193 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 2: up in New York, how different things might be this 194 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 2: time around. What are you hearing here in Davos, Switzerland? 195 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 2: How different are things this time around compared to years 196 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 2: gone by? 197 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 7: You know, I started with the propos lease of making 198 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 7: I always take dives with the grain of salt, because 199 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 7: you know, you have lots of different opinions here, and 200 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 7: I'm always the start of a new year. Everyone likes 201 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 7: to be excited. Everyone likes to be balled up. We 202 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 7: obviously went through an inauguration and change of power in 203 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 7: the United States yesterday. We know that's fairly positive for 204 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 7: business on the fundamental level. It's positive business. It's a 205 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 7: pro business. It's a smart regulatory environment. So everyone's thinking 206 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 7: that's very good for business. But I think we're going 207 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 7: to ultimately have to see what the year brings, because 208 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 7: there's still more unknowns. 209 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:17,839 Speaker 6: Than knowns in the equation at this point. 210 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 2: When you were last in the administration, the focus was 211 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: on taxes first, and I spent the best part of 212 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 2: the year trying to work out that tax build. The 213 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: following year things shifted towards trade. There's a sense this 214 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 2: time around that maybe we can do everything all at once. 215 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 2: How difficult is it to do everything all at once? 216 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 7: Look, I'm not in Washington right now, so I don't know. 217 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 7: I can't speak for them, but look, doing taxes by 218 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 7: itself is going to be quite difficult. You know, there 219 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 7: are a lot of different constituencies in Washington when it 220 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 7: comes to doing taxes, and look, there are small margins 221 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 7: of victory, so especially in the House. 222 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 6: You know you've got two or three today. 223 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 7: It might even be one or two seat majority in 224 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 7: the House. And within the House, you've got certain members 225 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 7: that want certain things. 226 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 6: To be able to vote for a tax bill. 227 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 7: You've got certain people that are deficit hawks, so they 228 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 7: do not want to see the deficit go out. You've 229 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 7: got other members that want to bring back as much 230 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 7: of the state and local tax deduction assault as we 231 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 7: always call it, the salt deduction. You've got other members 232 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 7: that want to just extend everything in the Trump's tax cuts. 233 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 7: Then you've got those that want to not only extend 234 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 7: what's there and all of the additional things that were 235 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 7: talked about on the campaign trail. 236 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 6: All of those things. 237 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 7: Have a price tag associated with them, so it's four trillion, 238 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 7: five trillion, six trillion, and you try and balance those 239 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 7: with the people that don't want to have a deficit, 240 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 7: and ultimately something has to be worked out. And remember, 241 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 7: the only thing that really has to change because its 242 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 7: expires at the end of the year, is the personal 243 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 7: side of the equation. 244 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 6: That doesn't mean they won't. 245 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 7: Touch the corporate side of the equation, because to make 246 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 7: this all work, they're going to have to balance it. 247 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 7: It's a balancing act, and there's numbers, so you're going 248 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 7: to need revenue from certain places to be able to 249 00:11:58,080 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 7: give it in other places. 250 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: It's a balancing for Congress, and each congressional member has 251 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: its own power just simply because of the thin margins. 252 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: It is a one man show that when it comes 253 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: to tariffs, And are you surprised that we didn't see 254 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: more aggressive tariffs implemented or at least even announced from 255 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: the get go, other than what we heard about from 256 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: Mexico in Canada. 257 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 6: No, I'm not supplied prize. 258 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 7: I think that even when I was there eight years ago, 259 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 7: there was always a heavy debate on tariffs, on the 260 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 7: positives and the negatives of tariffs, on the intended consequences 261 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 7: and the unintended consequences. You know, look, it's day one 262 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,839 Speaker 7: of a four year administration. You don't have to put 263 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 7: tariffs on day one. I'm sure there's an enormous amount 264 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 7: of debate going on in the White House today as 265 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 7: there was in the transition, on what to do with tariffs, 266 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 7: Where to put tariffs, Where can tariffs be helpful? 267 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 6: Where can tariffs be hurtful? 268 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 7: There are places, I'm sure where there's pretty universal agreement 269 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 7: that we should tariff. There's other places where there's probably 270 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 7: divided opinion, and there's places where people think there should 271 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 7: not be terrif. 272 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: So we're here in Davos. Everyone's incredibly excited about all 273 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: the good and not really considering the potential inflationary component 274 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: of this. The potentially rate, the potential rate rise that 275 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: could accompany this, or the potential slow down from an 276 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: increase in the price of goods at a time when 277 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: spending power has been coming down. Are you trying to 278 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: tell corporate executives who you meet with or others maybe 279 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 1: temper your enthusiasm. 280 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 7: No, I'm not trying to tell corporate executives anything. I 281 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,559 Speaker 7: think every one of us is eyes wide open. Everyone 282 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 7: has a fairly good view of what's going on in Washington. Look, 283 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 7: the one thing about the Trump administration is they're very transparent, 284 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 7: and the administration are very transparent. 285 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 6: They've had enormous access. 286 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 7: The corporate community has access, The corporate community has been involved. 287 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 7: The Trump administration has wanted to hear from corporate community. 288 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 7: So I don't need no one needs to tell the 289 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 7: corporate community to slow down. I think what people are 290 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 7: starting to understand is what are the intended what are 291 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 7: the unintended consequences? As you talked about, we've seen a 292 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 7: higher rate environment. We're talking about an environment where we 293 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 7: may not get. 294 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 6: Cuts this year. 295 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 7: We're talking about a steeper and steeper yield curve. I 296 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 7: think the realization that the COVID financings that we're five 297 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 7: year financings come do. 298 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 6: There's a big maturity wall coming up. 299 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 7: There's also a lot of deals in the pipeline. If 300 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 7: you look back at the vintage years of sort of 301 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 7: twenty ten on in the venture world, the private equi world, 302 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 7: there's been very little to no liquidity. 303 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 6: Out of twenty ten vintages on. 304 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 7: There's a lot of investors, especially pensions and endowments, started 305 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 7: looking for a return of capital from those vintage years. 306 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 6: There's a lot of pressure in the. 307 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 7: System to do transactions and get deals done. We all 308 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 7: feel that, we all know that that will be great 309 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 7: if we can get. 310 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 6: It all done. 311 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 7: But I think there's a realism that not all this 312 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 7: can get done at the same time, and we'll have 313 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 7: to see what the market can bear it. And we 314 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 7: have all of this at the exact same time when 315 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 7: we have very tight credit spreads and very high multiples 316 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 7: in the market. 317 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: You've said it repeated by coming into this year, there's 318 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: a lot of paper that needs to be moved. Moment 319 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 2: in the hearing with Scott Besson, the incoming Treasury Secretary, 320 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: where he was asked about scrapping the debt ceiling, the 321 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 2: debt limit and he said something instead of the warrant 322 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 2: didn't really let him speak. But what I ultimately was 323 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,359 Speaker 2: going out was that he wanted to survey market participants. 324 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 2: And what I sensed about where he was going was 325 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: he wanted to find out how market participants would respond 326 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 2: to that headline. Now, you've been in both office in 327 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: the administration, and you've know the business financial markets, and 328 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 2: your time at Goldman Sachs. What would you be telling 329 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 2: Scott Besson about that, about how that headline would be 330 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 2: absorbed in financial markets? And you're concerned that we could 331 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 2: get some pushback to some of these plans. 332 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 6: Well, I think you will get some pushback some of 333 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 6: these plans. 334 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 3: You know, the. 335 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 7: Market is getting to a point now where they're telling 336 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 7: you we are more concerned about the debt and the 337 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 7: deficit today than we have been in a while. 338 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 6: And I think there's a few factors there. 339 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 7: The debt and deficit continues to get bigger, but we're 340 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 7: also getting closer and closer to that Social security sort. 341 00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 6: Of tipping point. 342 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 7: You know, when they work together, we all know that 343 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 7: the Social Security Trust Fund will be unable to fund 344 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 7: itself in a matter of years. So it's five six, 345 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 7: seven four, you know, somewhere in there. And I think 346 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 7: we're all confident that no one's going to cut those 347 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 7: security payments. There's no member of Congress that is going 348 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 7: to vote to cut those. 349 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 6: Security payment nor should they. 350 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 7: So not only do you take the pre existing debt 351 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: that we have, the debt that we're going to continue 352 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 7: to build by running this government, you're going to have 353 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 7: a new source of additional debt called Social Security that 354 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 7: you're going to have to have to fund. So you 355 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 7: start putting all those things together, and you look at 356 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 7: what the government's need going to need to borrow in 357 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 7: the near future, and it's a fairly large number. And 358 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 7: the rollovers, the quarterly rollovers, are going to start getting 359 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 7: quite staggering. Add to that that the prior administration did 360 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 7: not really elongate the maturities on the debt. They were 361 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 7: using a very short dated maturity system, which I didn't 362 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 7: understand when we had low rates. When you have low rates, 363 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 7: you want to elongate your debt. We're going to have to 364 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 7: deal with the problem that we never really put. 365 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 6: Duration into the pre existing debt. So we've got to 366 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,479 Speaker 6: roll the duration of the pre existing. 367 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 7: Debt out we've got to add to it the exist 368 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 7: the new debt we're going to create, and we've got 369 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 7: to be prepared for. 370 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 6: So security. 371 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 2: Do you think we can term out of debt just 372 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 2: to unpack one piece of that? If we turned out 373 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 2: the debt right now and you're fantastic this, We've talked 374 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 2: about it before. Front end of the curve. At the 375 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 2: moment it is priced around FED funds on twos, the 376 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 2: curve is what forty fifty basis points step maybe forty 377 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 2: something like that. The last time I check, historically that's 378 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 2: not that much. I mean, I don't think there's any 379 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 2: real sign that we're freaking out about the fiscal debt. 380 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 2: So yeah, that's before you even do all of these 381 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 2: things you've talked about. 382 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 6: We're not. 383 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 7: Look, I think it is a good opportunity to term 384 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 7: out debt. We've got a, as you said, a forty 385 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 7: point inverted yield curve. Historically, we've got to positively shape 386 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 7: yield curve. You know, we still need to continue to 387 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,200 Speaker 7: elongate our maturities in the United States. 388 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 2: You think we have the space to do that right 389 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 2: now because I think it's about forty basis points steeper 390 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 2: twos versus ten. Do you think we have the space 391 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 2: to do it so steep? 392 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, Yeah, it's Steve, You're right, we do need we 393 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 7: do need to do it at forty basis points. 394 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 6: I still think it's it's the right place to go. 395 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 2: Your message to the people that didn't live a steep 396 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 2: yield curve and things that right now at the moment 397 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: like this might be it. What's your message to them? 398 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 6: My message is go back and look at history. You know, 399 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 6: if you go back. 400 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 7: And look at history, the one hundred year ten year 401 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 7: rate average in the United States is over four percent. 402 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 7: If you look at the steepness of the yield curve 403 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 7: over the one hundred years, we've always had one hundred 404 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 7: and fifty basis points of steepening in of steepness in 405 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 7: the curve if you look at FED funds out so 406 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 7: we are still in a relatively flat curve. 407 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 2: Gary, appreciate your time. Always shop It's going to catch up, 408 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 2: Thank you, sir. Gary Khan there the former National Economic 409 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 2: Council Director and of course formerly of Goldman Sachs, as 410 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 2: well David Rubinstein, a co founder and co chairman of 411 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 2: the Carlough Group. David, it's going to see you. My 412 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: pleasure to be here, thanks for joining us. We caught 413 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 2: it with someone you know well, mister Friedman of Canyon Partners, 414 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 2: someone who you've spoken see quite recently, and he said 415 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 2: that the inauguration felt like a commercial for all the 416 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 2: best of the United States of America or the CEOs 417 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 2: from the biggest tech firms. Joe Biden, the former president, 418 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 2: has said something different. He said, an oligarchy is taping shape. 419 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 2: How do you see things? 420 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 8: Well, I don't want to side with either side and 421 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 8: say either person. 422 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 2: Is right, you know both of them. 423 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 8: I would say that clearly there are a lot of 424 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 8: technology people that are involved with Donald Trump, and they 425 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 8: were very visible at the inauguration. You could see the 426 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 8: most visible people at the inauguration right behind the President 427 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 8: when he was being sworn in. Where the tech CEOs, 428 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 8: the finance CEOs. They must have been in Wall Street 429 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 8: doing deals, or maybe they're in Davos. 430 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 3: They weren't there. 431 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 8: There's no doubt that business people have become very important 432 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 8: in the American economy in the last couple of years 433 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 8: because of technology. 434 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 3: There's no doubt about it. 435 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 8: This is true for President Biden, President Trump, the technology companies, 436 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 8: United States are not only dominant in the United States, 437 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 8: they're dominant in the world. 438 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 3: So live anywhere in the world today. 439 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 8: Can you get through a technology get through the day 440 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 8: without using an American technology. Almost everybody in the world is 441 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 8: using either Amazon or an Apple, or Facebook or a Google. 442 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 8: And European technologies are not quite like that. And even 443 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 8: the Asian technology, with the exception of TikTok, isn't really prevalent. 444 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 8: So the American technology leaders have become important business leaders, 445 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 8: not only the United States, all over the world. 446 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: And they're more than. 447 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 8: Business leaders, They've become like folk heroes in some ways. 448 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 8: People that started these companies, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, among others, 449 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 8: and the. 450 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 3: Late Steve Jobs. 451 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 8: These are like people have done much larger than life figures. 452 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 8: And I'm not surprised that President Trump would want to 453 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 8: involve them, and I think President Biden did meet with 454 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 8: them as well. 455 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 2: Mark Zuckerberg said recently in a podcast with Joe Rogan 456 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 2: that he found like the European regulators were going after 457 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 2: the US tech firms, and the US administration was given 458 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 2: the Europeans cover to do that. Do you sense a 459 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 2: shift where we are now celebrating our national champions under 460 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 2: Donald Trump in a way that maybe we have done 461 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 2: over the last four years. 462 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 8: Well, I think both all presidents want to celebrate American technologist. 463 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 8: I'm not sure exactly what he's referred with Mark Zuckerberg 464 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 8: referring to, so I can't comment on that, but there's 465 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 8: no doubt that when you have American technology companies that 466 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 8: are very dominant. Google is another one that had a 467 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 8: lot of problems in Europe, you expect Europeans to maybe 468 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 8: regulate because they're not happy with the fact that American 469 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 8: companies are dominating their technology. You know, Europe and France 470 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 8: really invented the Internet. They had a kind of an 471 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 8: Internet before we had the Internet, but they kind of 472 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 8: lost it and as a result, today, think of a 473 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 8: European technology that you need to get through the day, 474 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 8: there's virtually none of them. So I'm not surprised that 475 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 8: Europe is upset about it. But Europe is an important 476 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 8: a life the United States. 477 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 2: So I don't expect Rolex. I'm sorry, Well, I literally. 478 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 8: I want to have a great summer vacation. There is 479 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 8: no place better in the world than you know, Mediterranean 480 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 8: or Europe, and the museums are great, the food's great, 481 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 8: the people are family, everything's grown of them. But if 482 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 8: you really want to build a great technology company, many 483 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,360 Speaker 8: of the great technology leadlead are moving to the United 484 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 8: States from India or from Europe. 485 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 1: So there's a larger question here about how much we've 486 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: priced in the US market tech market divorcing from China 487 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: at a time when it seems like maybe that's not 488 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: exactly Donald Trump's plan, and I wonder whether that might 489 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: be the surprise actually a shift toward a more amenable 490 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: approach towards China than currently this market is expecting. 491 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 8: I can't speak for Donald Trump, obviously, and he changes 492 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 8: his mind when he feels it's appropriate to do so. 493 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 8: He's a very transaction oriented person. I wouldn't say as ideological, 494 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 8: as transaction oriented, that would be my perception. 495 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 3: And therefore, if he can get a. 496 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 8: Deal with the Chinese on something that would be helped 497 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 8: with the United States, I think he'll do that. I've 498 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 8: read that he wants to move there and get there 499 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 8: relatively quickly and have a meeting with Cgping. I think 500 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 8: that'd be a good idea, But I think it's too 501 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 8: early to say whether China is going to go down 502 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 8: and the United States is going to go up in 503 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 8: terms of the fight between each other, whether it's going 504 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 8: to be large tariffs. I think the Secretary of Treasury 505 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 8: said designate that the tariff policy is a maximalist policy, 506 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 8: which is to say, it's to be used in negotiating positions. 507 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 8: So I suspect that that will be what Donald Trump does, 508 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 8: and as people negotiate and have the threat of tariffs, 509 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 8: but maybe not you impose them. 510 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 1: Well, the reason why I ask this is because we're 511 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: trying to figure out signal from noise right and the 512 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: TikTok ban that was delayed for seventy five days. There's 513 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: a signal in that that maybe there isn't as much 514 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 1: of a concern about the national security concerns surrounding a 515 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: property like this, at least in Donald Trump's mind, and 516 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: that could open the door to more negotiating between the 517 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: US and China in a way that a lot of 518 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: businesses had really backtracked from how much you hearing them 519 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 1: actually start to look at potential opportunities again with China, 520 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 1: given that maybe that got overestimated well in the. 521 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 3: National security information and concerns. 522 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 8: I don't have access to what the senators and members 523 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 8: of the House saw. So I can't comment on that, 524 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 8: but I would say Donald Trump is obviously interested in 525 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 8: MAB security, but he may have some way to deal 526 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 8: with that if you have an American press in the 527 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 8: company or American ownership. So I just have to wait 528 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 8: and see. It might take more than ninety days to 529 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 8: actually get this resolved. You know, business deals don't get 530 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 8: done that quickly. But the fact that TikTok is able 531 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 8: to get the attention of the present of United States 532 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 8: in a way that many people wouldn't have expected a 533 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,719 Speaker 8: couple months ago shows that this is a technology that 534 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 8: obviously has a lot of popularity in United States. Think 535 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 8: about one hundred and seventy million users, which is staggering 536 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 8: when you think about it. 537 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,959 Speaker 1: Right now, the takeaway for us from Davos has been 538 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: this incredible optimism, this whole deal making surge that we 539 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 1: were expecting. Do you think that's overplayed or do you 540 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: think that that's going to be validated in the numbers. 541 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,679 Speaker 8: Well, the optimism certainly is here. Whether it'll be merited, 542 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 8: I don't know yet, but I do think that many 543 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 8: business people feel that there'll be more of an opportunity 544 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 8: to get regulatory burdens removed. There'll be more opportunity to 545 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 8: get things done that won't have be on our trust concerns. 546 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,880 Speaker 8: The SEC won't be as big a challenge for many people. 547 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 8: I think that is the feeling of some business people, 548 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 8: not everybody, And that is the feeling that I think 549 00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 8: is fueling a lot of the optimism. 550 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 2: Sure is that you'll failing. I'm sorry, is that you'll failing. 551 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 3: I feel it's a different environment, will be different. 552 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 8: I think there were some pluses to some of the 553 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 8: things that were done in the previous administration, and there 554 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 8: were some things that probably I wouldn't have agreed with. 555 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 8: And we'll see what the new administration is going to do. 556 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 8: I think the important thing you should think about is this. 557 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 8: We've only had a president the second term non consecutively 558 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 8: once before, as Grover Cleveland. And when you have second 559 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,159 Speaker 8: terms for presidents, sometimes in the second terms, they get tired, 560 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 8: they make mistakes. Reagan's second term wasn't perfect. Obviously, Nixon 561 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 8: had to leave, Bill Clinton had some challenges as well. 562 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,440 Speaker 8: Maybe that's because in a second term, a president gets tired, 563 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 8: and it's people get tired. Maybe if you have a 564 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 8: president who has served for as president before, it actually 565 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 8: knows something about the job, has some chance to think 566 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 8: about it, comes back with fresh people. Maybe a second 567 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 8: term it's not consecutive, might produce some good results. 568 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 3: We'll time, Hotel, we. 569 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 2: Will see and we'll catch up with you saying no 570 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 2: doubt as well, David, appreciate your time. 571 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 3: Thank you, thanks much for this. 572 00:25:54,960 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 2: Thank you, David Rubinstein there as the Carlisle Group, joining 573 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: Guess not Stave, Town of Bound, the founder of Golden 574 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 2: Tree Asset Management Stave. It's good to say, you. 575 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 4: Said, John Lisa, great to be back. 576 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us. I was listening to 577 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 2: some of your comments immediately after the election. Why you 578 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 2: said it might be more bock than bite, but maybe 579 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:22,919 Speaker 2: people that get in how over that scace just to 580 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,679 Speaker 2: touch What do you think we are now and what 581 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 2: do you expected? 582 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 9: So it's been a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of hope, 583 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 9: and it's great and prospects look like they were accelerating, improving, 584 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 9: and valuations suggest that my guess is it's not going 585 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 9: to be a one way train, a one way trip, 586 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,879 Speaker 9: and that we're going to likely to get a pause. 587 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 4: What does it mean six months to a year from now. 588 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 9: If you look at the Reagan analogy, there was a 589 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 9: lot of hope build up. The first year was tougher, 590 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 9: but then it built on that and it was ended 591 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 9: up being a very good experience. And there's no reason 592 00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 9: to think you can't have different environment but similar results 593 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 9: over time. 594 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 2: Is confidence sufficient to generate economic activity? Because confidence feels 595 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 2: sky high speaking to American executives, and you see that 596 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 2: the sentiment surveys over the last few months as well. 597 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 2: Do you see that translating right now into superior economic activity? 598 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 9: Absolutely, there's a lot of excitement and there's a can 599 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 9: do attitude and people feel good. 600 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: So dubos always tends to be wrong. People get together 601 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: and they have this conviction and then the exact opposite 602 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,120 Speaker 1: usually happens over the remainder of the year. 603 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 2: I just keep that in mind. 604 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: At a time where the conviction seems to be American exceptionalism, 605 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: growth is going to go gangbusters, and there's this huge 606 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: fly in the ointment, which is the debt market and 607 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 1: what rates are saying. How much does that worry you? 608 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 4: A great question? 609 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 9: Because what we get the cuts that the market's hoping 610 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 9: and a lot of the valuations are assuming that rates 611 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 9: have a downward bias, and if they don't and have 612 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 9: an upward or a flat bias without hurt valuations. If 613 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 9: you look at nominal growth rates, which we think will 614 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 9: be about five percent, so nominal is inflation plus real, 615 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 9: and if real is a higher percentage than inflation in 616 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 9: that five percent number, that's a good thing and they'll 617 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 9: be room to cut. 618 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 4: But if it's about. 619 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 9: The same, or if there's more inflation in that nominal 620 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,239 Speaker 9: number as a percentage of the total, then it's going 621 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 9: to be a pause and that's not going to be 622 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 9: good for the markets based on that. 623 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 1: Are credit markets in particular, high yield markets priced perfection 624 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: sort of leverage to both the growth and the idea 625 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 1: of potential cuts. 626 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 4: You're leading the witness and by the way. 627 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 6: So. 628 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 2: Carry on, yes, please answer. 629 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 9: As long as the market's constructive about growth, valuations make sense. 630 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 9: If there's volatility on, is inflation accelerating, is there a 631 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 9: concern that you're not going to have cut you may 632 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 9: even have an interest rate spike or pause, then that's 633 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 9: going to be different. Some of the outliers, like the 634 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 9: tariff conversation, I'm less concerned about today's how. 635 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: Much are you actually starting to look outside the US 636 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: because of valuation story. I mean, this is something we 637 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 1: keep hearing about going to Europe. Sure we're here, but 638 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: also investing. 639 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 9: So one of the interesting things on Europe are the 640 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 9: real rates are quite low compared to the US. So 641 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 9: if you look at economies, for instance, like Germany, you 642 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 9: could say, well, there's low debt to GDP and their 643 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 9: real rates are called the twenty rates. The twenty year 644 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 9: rates are under one, so that you could kind of 645 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 9: make a case for that, I don't think a very 646 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 9: good good case. But when you look for something like France, 647 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 9: where it seems like they have worse flexibility, they're going 648 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 9: to might be spending more on defense, less entitlements, less growth, 649 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 9: and those real rates or the twenty year rates or 650 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 9: in the mid ones to low ones and the US 651 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 9: or in the mid twies, it doesn't seem right. So 652 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 9: the real rates in Europe seem high. I do feel 653 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 9: as if when you look at the Mario Drahi report, uncompetitive, 654 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 9: there are solutions, there is self help if they choose 655 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 9: to do it. 656 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 2: How much needs to go right to generate bigger retents 657 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 2: out of Europe because expectations into twenty five are exceptionally low. 658 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 2: We've seen one innings reply. I can think of Richemont 659 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: in the last week come out with a decent endings 660 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 2: report at stock coup ten fifteen to twenty percent. 661 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 4: Just like that, John, It feels that way. 662 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 9: So you look at for instance, I was talking about 663 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 9: draw Hay's report. He singled out telecom where they used 664 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 9: to very much encourage competition. So retail price is low, 665 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 9: but as a result you couldn't reinvest in the properties 666 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 9: in the systems, and as a result, the investments the 667 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 9: companies sell are very low multiples. You take something like 668 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 9: a Vodaphone, if all of a sudden, the consolidation occurs, 669 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 9: which allowed occurred, and that they allowed the investment on 670 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 9: their systems to have appropriate returns, those valuations could be 671 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 9: up fifty to one hundre percent. So I could see it. 672 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 9: Look at something like Germany in Vodafone. If that's stabilized 673 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 9: and you believe that there is a good investment, that 674 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 9: could be really very attractive. 675 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 2: Before we let you go. 676 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 1: Last year year Soldier's crypto business. This year crypto has 677 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: gone crazy. Yes, do you regret it? 678 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,960 Speaker 4: You know it not at all. And because it's in 679 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 4: a better home. 680 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 9: I mean, we still we've done some things that have 681 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 9: been crypto related, and of the firm Republic, who we 682 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 9: sold it to, is just a more appropriate home for it. 683 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 9: But and I think it's an interesting space. I'm not 684 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 9: so sure that the valuations justify the fundamentals today, but 685 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 9: the fundamentals are very strong. 686 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 2: How do you value these companies? How do you value 687 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 2: these things? What are the valuations off them? I've had 688 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 2: from traditional investors, They just say, I can't have tolerance 689 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 2: to invest in something if I don't know why it 690 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 2: guys up or down from week to week. 691 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 9: You know it's I try and focus on what I 692 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 9: can analyze, and there's enough of that then to worry 693 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 9: about what I can and you know, there's very much. 694 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 9: It's a concept and you could have said that about 695 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 9: the Internet in two thousand. It's true, and you know 696 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 9: it's a concept and some will be realized and some 697 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 9: won't be. 698 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: Steve appreciate your time so aways you get to hear 699 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 2: from you're super smart Steve talnabout that of Golden Tree. 700 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,720 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 701 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 2: in markets economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show 702 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 703 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 704 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 705 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.