Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Gradusky with
Speaker 2: us to talk about Iowa elections, politics, all those good things.
Speaker 2: And also, for those of you who are on YouTuber rumble,
Speaker 2: you can see Ryan's dog is making a guest appearance
Speaker 2: this episode. Ryan, what is Is it a she? And
Speaker 2: what is he? Or she? It's a he is?
Speaker 1: He is a five year old multi poo that I rescued,
Speaker 1: and he's a giant pain ninety percent of the time,
Speaker 1: but he's pretty lovable and he is Yeah, he's a
Speaker 1: five year old multi pooh rescue all right.
Speaker 2: He's very cute. He's currently giving giving some smooches to
Speaker 2: mister Ryan Gerdusky. All right, let's talk about saving America, Ryan,
Speaker 2: and to start with that, where things are for the
Speaker 2: Republicans going into Iowa? I was what ten days away
Speaker 2: as I talk to you, What are there? What are
Speaker 2: the numbers telling us right now? What are the chances
Speaker 2: of there being any real surprise break it down?
Speaker 1: I mean, Iowa is a caucus, right, so it's all
Speaker 1: about organization. It's not typically you don't just show up
Speaker 1: to vote. You're staying in a school or a facility
Speaker 1: for hours at a time to argue and yell with
Speaker 1: people about trying to get your candidate over the line.
Speaker 1: They change the rules all the time. The rules used
Speaker 1: to be that the bottom candidates had to bottom voters
Speaker 1: had to then reassemble to go to the top voters,
Speaker 1: and that's how you picked one. The Democrats still did
Speaker 1: that as of twenty twenty. I don't know if Republicans
Speaker 1: do it anymore. I don't think they do. But it
Speaker 1: is a it's a slog and it's an organization. Trump's
Speaker 1: pole members are the strongest by far, but by like
Speaker 1: twenty five points in Iowa and some of the polls.
Speaker 1: But the thing about organization is that all people who
Speaker 1: organize for winning candidates in Iowa are all behind the Santas.
Speaker 1: That's the thing that he's got the Senator, he's got
Speaker 1: Bob van Platt, he's got the real organization behind him.
Speaker 1: He's got a lot of evangelicals as well behind him.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that will be enough to sit
Speaker 1: there and swing the entire thing. Iowa elections sometimes because
Speaker 1: they are you know, their caucuses have swung as much
Speaker 1: as fifteen points. When Rick Santorum won in twenty twelve,
Speaker 1: he was way behind the polls the day before election day.
Speaker 1: Yet and still that though his numbers were much smaller
Speaker 1: than than Disanna's is right now, the margins rather much
Speaker 1: much smaller. So I you know, it could always be
Speaker 1: a surprise. You never know, the only the only poll
Speaker 1: that matters is the election day poll and who shows up.
Speaker 1: And you know, some Trump supporters get complacent and think
Speaker 1: that he's got this in the bag. There's no point
Speaker 1: of sitting inside of a school for seven hours and
Speaker 1: yelling and screaming. Then you know, then Disantas might surprise it.
Speaker 1: It's not completely uncommon. People have surprised the Iowa caucuses before,
Speaker 1: which is why they're not super indictive. Who's going to
Speaker 1: win the presidence or the presidential nomination.
Speaker 2: So I need you to move to the center of
Speaker 2: the frame so people can see you more easily. And
Speaker 2: also there you go, scooch over and they can't even
Speaker 2: really see the doll. There we go, and now we
Speaker 2: can see the adorable, adorable dog. My brother. My brother
Speaker 2: has a multi Pooh, and my older brother has a Pomeranians.
Speaker 2: We only have the most masculine attack dogs imaginable in
Speaker 2: his family. I have an Australian Labradoodle puppy. So people
Speaker 2: better watch out the burglars better stay out of our places.
Speaker 2: So anyway, back to back to where we are on
Speaker 2: this I you know, if I mean realistically, if Trump
Speaker 2: wins Iowa, do you do you feel like it's over
Speaker 2: and everything else is pretty much a formality.
Speaker 1: If he wins Iowa, definitely Desanders's campaigns over. If he
Speaker 1: goes to New Hampshire because the because independence can vote,
Speaker 1: he could still lose New Hampshire technically because I like
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of all register are independents and they
Speaker 1: can vote in both the Democrat and Republican primary. There
Speaker 1: is no Democratic primary that day, so they can all
Speaker 1: go in the Republican primary. And Trump does not do
Speaker 1: very well with independence, and that's a chance for Nicki
Speaker 1: Haley to win the day. Also, New Hampshire is another
Speaker 1: state where people way behind the polls have huge comebacks.
Speaker 1: John McCain two thousand and eight. That is where mid
Speaker 1: Romney came back in twenty twelve. That is where Donald
Speaker 1: Trump came back in twenty sixteen. That's where Pappy Kennon
Speaker 1: won nineteen ninety six. These are states that John McCain
Speaker 1: when they're in two thousand, despite being against George W.
Speaker 1: Bush and him being the presumptive nominee. These are states
Speaker 1: that do throw curves, that do make politics interesting. So
Speaker 1: it certainly would be over for de Santas's campaign if
Speaker 1: he cannot win in Iowa. I don't know if it
Speaker 1: would be over for Nicky Haley. She's still fundraising well
Speaker 1: past South Carolina. She has fundraising dates already lined up
Speaker 1: past South Carolina. There is something to say about a
Speaker 1: candidate who stays in for the long haul despite you know,
Speaker 1: only garnering thirty percent or whatever. That's what Jesse Jackson
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty eight, and although his candidacy did not win,
Speaker 1: his ideas certainly did.
Speaker 2: So you never know. If I want, I want to
Speaker 2: jump in here for because you mentioned Nicky Haley, and
Speaker 2: that's gonna be my next question. Explain Nicky Haley to
Speaker 2: me right now. She just raised like forty five million
Speaker 2: ride or something like that. I have yet to meet
Speaker 2: a person in real life. Now, maybe this just is
Speaker 2: telling people who my friends are. I've yet I have.
Speaker 2: I have obviously a lot of Trump and DeSantis supporters
Speaker 2: that I know in my life. I come across, you know,
Speaker 2: go to events, see people. I even have. I have
Speaker 2: friends who are VIVAC voters. They'll vote for Verveke over
Speaker 2: anybody else. I don't have a lot of them, but
Speaker 2: I have like a couple. I don't know anybody who
Speaker 2: is all in on Nicky Haley, and yet she's surging,
Speaker 2: She's raising millions, the donor class likes her. What's what's
Speaker 2: going on? Like, explain the Haley phenomenon.
Speaker 1: Uh, Nikki Haley is one. There's a lot of people
Speaker 1: in politics period who want a girl president, so that's
Speaker 1: part of it. Secondly, she's extreme. I mean, Nikki Helly
Speaker 1: is now a joke Neily. He's been around for in
Speaker 1: politics for over twenty years, going back to when she
Speaker 1: was in the state House. She's extremely well polished, and
Speaker 1: she offers a lot of Republicans the alternative that they
Speaker 1: want to hear, which is somebody who is more hawkish
Speaker 1: on foreign policy, less culture war, less less about the
Speaker 1: culture wars, a throwback to an older time in Republicans
Speaker 1: and somebody with who seems respectable, and she a lot
Speaker 1: of a lot of people vote for their candidate on vibes,
Speaker 1: and she gives the vibe of a woman who's very strong.
Speaker 1: She's a boss, and she is not going to disrespect
Speaker 1: the office of the presidency. I have actually my very
Speaker 1: very very very close friend from college. His mom is
Speaker 1: a Nicki Haley supporter, and she absolutely hates Donald Trump
Speaker 1: because Donald Trump she thought disrespect of the office of
Speaker 1: the president and that is a big deal to her
Speaker 1: and that's why she thinks that Nikki Hilly wouldn't do that.
Speaker 1: So that's partially the group. And also she's not going
Speaker 1: to make waves. Nikkiy Hilly is not going to like,
Speaker 1: you know, change her immigration system immensely. She's not going
Speaker 1: to change our trade policy imensely. She's going to be
Speaker 1: you know, she'll probably appoint decent judges. And that's probably
Speaker 1: all we're going to get out of her. That it's
Speaker 1: going to be important other than try to declare war
Speaker 1: with a round or anybody else.
Speaker 2: All right. I mean, the good news is, you know,
Speaker 2: if Nikki Haley gets elected, load up on that defense
Speaker 2: contractor stock. I want to ask you about the Democrat
Speaker 2: side of this equation. Here a second, but first up
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Speaker 2: Democrat side of things. So, now Ryan, we have passed
Speaker 2: you and I have been talking to this for many months,
Speaker 2: and I appreciate you've been a voice of standing. Well,
Speaker 2: everyone's like, you don't understand. They're gonna RFK Junior and
Speaker 2: Newsome are gonna run a two day primary, and it
Speaker 2: is all this crazy stuff. I've just it makes no sense,
Speaker 2: right right, That's not happening now right, So now it's all, Oh,
Speaker 2: they're gonna they're gonna change things out at the convention.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: To me, abandoning a president and a vice president in
Speaker 2: office for a convention floor fight is electoral suicide. Am
Speaker 2: I missing something? Uh?
Speaker 1: No, you're not. It's not going to happen. And for
Speaker 1: some reason they believe they also this weird belief that
Speaker 1: Republicans have because they're only listening to a lot of
Speaker 1: Republican media, which is only talking about Gavin Newsom as
Speaker 1: if Democrat. There's not a single other Democrat in the
Speaker 1: country who wants to probably be president, and there's just
Speaker 1: just Gavin Newsom as if he's ordained to be such
Speaker 1: no a floor or fight would be a disaster, and
Speaker 1: you would have literally half a dozen Democrats from very
Speaker 1: big states that control most of the delegates all running
Speaker 1: up against each other and fighting. And I mean, it's
Speaker 1: this is so insane. It's not going to happen, Like
Speaker 1: it's literally not going to happen. It hasn't ever happened.
Speaker 1: It's not going to happen this time. Besides death or
Speaker 1: a severe injury that is crippling. Joe Biden will be
Speaker 1: the presidential nominee in twenty twenty four?
Speaker 2: Is is he so that the people that I that
Speaker 2: I talk to who think that it's not just going
Speaker 2: to be like a walk in the park for Trump.
Speaker 2: The primary thing that there's the there's the legal stuff
Speaker 2: that they're doing, obviously, the prosecutions and the taking him
Speaker 2: off the ballot, the taking him off the state ballot thing. No,
Speaker 2: I don't think any serious person believes that that's actually
Speaker 2: going to work in the end, but it's it's they
Speaker 2: like the optics of it, even if it loses the
Speaker 2: legal stuff. You know, who knows that's a little bit
Speaker 2: of a more of a coin cost depending on what
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court does in a few places, you know,
Speaker 2: the prosecutions. But what I hear from people is, yeah,
Speaker 2: the Democrats haven't opened up their campaign on Trump yet
Speaker 2: and that's what will change the numbers. How much of
Speaker 2: that do you buy versus how much of what we're
Speaker 2: seeing right now is Joe Biden is bad at his
Speaker 2: job and a lot of people are recognizing that maybe
Speaker 2: who didn't before.
Speaker 1: Well, Joe Biden is also has there's not a lot
Speaker 1: of competency brings to it because he is he is
Speaker 1: a man of a particular age who seems older than
Speaker 1: he is, and that that gives a lot of people
Speaker 1: pause in a lot of different demographics that he means.
Speaker 1: What Joe Biden has going for him is the most
Speaker 1: critical swing states in this country are still for as
Speaker 1: divers donation as we've become, still about ninety percent black
Speaker 1: white states, so Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Misty, Gain Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: With the exception of Texas, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, these
Speaker 1: are ninety percent black white states. Even New Hampshire, if
Speaker 1: you want to throw it in there. Things got really
Speaker 1: wild where trumps surge or is all coming from. Even
Speaker 1: if you include the polling that has them strong with
Speaker 1: black voters, which I don't know if I believe or not,
Speaker 1: But if you include that polling, the numbers that he
Speaker 1: has had in New York Times numbers, I think he
Speaker 1: was down twenty one points with college educated whites, which
Speaker 1: we put him on path for the worst performance with
Speaker 1: college educated whites since Verry Goldwater in nineteen sixty four.
Speaker 1: Is there a path if you lose that by that
Speaker 1: much to make it up for it with non college
Speaker 1: educated whites and minorities. Yes, there is technically, but I
Speaker 1: don't have a ton of confidence in that. It's never
Speaker 1: been done before. He's trying to have to build a
Speaker 1: new coalition. You're building a new coalition with one hundred
Speaker 1: percent name ideal already going in. No one's going to
Speaker 1: learn anything on Donald Trump. I like they're learning on
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. At this point, it's gonna be based on
Speaker 1: who shows up, which is gonna be a high turnout
Speaker 1: election because college is k Whites always turn out, and
Speaker 1: the question of do young people turn out to black
Speaker 1: people turn out. If black vote to Clea fines by
Speaker 1: one percent from what it was in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: donald Trump will probably be president. Just like if the
Speaker 1: black vote mimics what it happens. Black vote declined by
Speaker 1: one percent in twenty sixteen, which put Donald mac donald
Speaker 1: Trump president. That one person declined would make him president.
Speaker 1: But I don't know if it's overall going to happen.
Speaker 1: You could. That's like the big, big question. What's also happening,
Speaker 1: which is a mix I put this on my subset,
Speaker 1: which is very very important. A lot of older Black vote,
Speaker 1: which are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc. You know,
Speaker 1: time has gone on, a lot of them have started
Speaker 1: dying out, a lot of the new Silent generation group
Speaker 1: within that demographic, and they're being replaced by younger Gen
Speaker 1: Z black voters who are less ideologically aligned with the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party and less partisan of the Democratic Party. So
Speaker 1: the idea of Republicans getting twelve percent of the Black
Speaker 1: vote elevens in the black vote are more likely now
Speaker 1: than ever. But it's not because of any real partisan change.
Speaker 1: It's mostly because of a demographic change of one generation
Speaker 1: dying while though I'm being born.
Speaker 2: So I promise, if you get this right, we will
Speaker 2: revisit this in eleven months. But if you get it wrong,
Speaker 2: we're going to pretend like it never happened. And you're
Speaker 2: going to tell me after this sponsor read, You're going
Speaker 2: to tell me right now, going with your gut, what
Speaker 2: who's in the presidential election? What happens in the presidential election?
Speaker 2: And why? So I'm you're calling a shot here in
Speaker 2: the upper deck, way up there. And the good news
Speaker 2: is people could listen to this and they'll say, you'll
Speaker 2: think one thing or the other, but you can't be
Speaker 2: wrong because it hasn't happened yet. And if you're right, Ryan,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna mark this down. We're gonna blast us everywhere
Speaker 2: after election day. And if you're wrong, no one's even
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Speaker 2: I asked you to call your shot. I mean, this
Speaker 2: is like hitting a home run that goes out of
Speaker 2: the stadium and into the parking lots. It's eleven months out.
Speaker 2: Who is in the general election? Who wins the general election?
Speaker 2: And why do you think when all said and done,
Speaker 2: they will have won the general election?
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be Joe Biden Kamala Harris versus
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And I mean I'm not picking his VP,
Speaker 1: but it will probably be I think the top like
Speaker 1: three contenders for VP would be like, I don't know,
Speaker 1: JD Van's, Tim Scott and Christy Nome and then the
Speaker 1: nominee will I probably would bet on Joe Biden winning
Speaker 1: re election. By he'll probably win. He'll probably lose Arizona,
Speaker 1: which he won the last time, and he'll lose Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: which he won the last time. But the demographics of
Speaker 1: Georgia are moving too progressively and there's not enough college
Speaker 1: educata whites that would flip back to maybe win Georgia,
Speaker 1: and the black vote is only increased Pennsylvania. The college
Speaker 1: educata white vote is just gigantic, and it's getting bigger
Speaker 1: while the rurals are emptying out and Michigan, I just
Speaker 1: I think that the Michigan vote will be strong enough
Speaker 1: for Biden to keep that state blue. Because the College
Speaker 1: of Ka whites on the west coast don't hate Joe
Speaker 1: Biden like the like the on the western side of
Speaker 1: the state don't hate Joe Biden like they hate Hillary. It
Speaker 1: will be very very very very tight. I think Trump
Speaker 1: could probably flip Arizona and flip Wisconsin, but I don't
Speaker 1: know if he can flip Michigan, pennsylvani you know, or
Speaker 1: Georgia or Nevada. But as a right I mean literally,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a right now. I hate making predictions.
Speaker 1: I don't know even just agree to this, but that's
Speaker 1: what I would say as of right now.
Speaker 2: Well, the good news, like I said, if you nail
Speaker 2: any of this, by the way, you can just cut
Speaker 2: it too. So we just get you all the parts
Speaker 2: that you're right, so you're we can be shameless here.
Speaker 2: Editorial freedom literally editorial free.
Speaker 1: Anything could happen. But like this is what I'm looking
Speaker 1: at right now is do the college educated white boats
Speaker 1: and now the non college to show up and and
Speaker 1: do minorities not show up. Those are the big three questions.
Speaker 1: And because I think that most people's minds are set
Speaker 1: and that's, uh, that's kind of where.
Speaker 2: People are, right. Do Republicans take the Senate?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they went on Tanna back. I think
Speaker 1: they went West Virginia. I don't know about Ohio. Shared
Speaker 1: Brown's a tough soob Michigan who knows. And I don't
Speaker 1: think they're going at Arizona.
Speaker 2: Do you think, uh, billionaire guy in Pennsylvan and you
Speaker 2: know I'm talking about David mccorm you think he can win?
Speaker 2: No chance? Wow, not a chance. Ryan swinging the bat
Speaker 2: not fearless, fearless swinging at these pitches. Jesus. All right man,
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you everyone got to hear it. I
Speaker 2: know our pro Trump audience right over there, they've already
Speaker 2: to They've already like clicked off this. It's okay.
Speaker 1: I hope I mean listen, Royce, is Biden or Trump?
Speaker 1: I would hope for Trump, But like at the same
Speaker 1: time time, I'm looking at the numbers. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know if the growth with hispans nations. And
Speaker 1: the question is can Trump close the gap? And you know,
Speaker 1: can he win you know, can he close an Orange
Speaker 1: County Florida? Yeah? Can he get ten points higher in California? Maybe,
Speaker 1: like he can do all those things. But if you
Speaker 1: look at where the states are that matter, you know,
Speaker 1: the RUSS the white white non college educator vote is smaller.
Speaker 2: And do you think do you do you think the
Speaker 2: the idea that Demo crats are panicked about Joe Biden
Speaker 2: is overstated? You think you think they actually.
Speaker 1: I know quite a few have said we're going to
Speaker 1: give up, like nothing, they're going to give up, but
Speaker 1: they have come they've already rested on the idea that
Speaker 1: Democrats they believe. A few people that I know who
Speaker 1: are really smart, said, you know, we're going to win
Speaker 1: the House. The Democrats will win the House back, they'll
Speaker 1: lose the Senate, and they'll lose the presidency. And they're
Speaker 1: just going to come to the conclusion that they're going
Speaker 1: to lose the presidency now to deal with it. So
Speaker 1: if they do win it, it's a big win and
Speaker 1: they're very very happy about it, but they do believe
Speaker 1: that they're going to lose as it right now because
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. But I don't know any other Democratic that
Speaker 1: put together the coalition needed for the Democratic Party. Remember
Speaker 1: one in for sorry go ahead.
Speaker 2: No you go, you go ahead because I have a
Speaker 2: common question for you. But one in.
Speaker 1: Four Biden voters are voter are white people without a
Speaker 1: college degree. They should be Republicans by this point, but
Speaker 1: they are still not because of a certain a few
Speaker 1: issues that keep them within the Democratic line. Sixty one
Speaker 1: percent of all Democrats are white voters. The number of
Speaker 1: noncollecated whites is going to go down. But all Biden
Speaker 1: has done, all the Democratic Party has done is sit
Speaker 1: there and tell white voters, we don't want to hear
Speaker 1: from you. Is why we're not doing Iowa caucus, we're
Speaker 1: not doing the New Hampshire primary. We don't want to
Speaker 1: hear from white voters. Biden try to give my black
Speaker 1: minority minority farmers bailout. He wouldn't do the same thing
Speaker 1: for white farmers. There when when the fifth when thirteen
Speaker 1: Republican attorney generals said to corporations, you can't hire based
Speaker 1: on race anymore. You have to hire based on their
Speaker 1: twenty one Democratic attorneys also know it's great if you
Speaker 1: if you try to have a diverse feel by by
Speaker 1: not hiring white people, all of these things. This is
Speaker 1: going to come to a head. And at the same
Speaker 1: exact time, you have the inflation issue, and you have
Speaker 1: the job issue, and you have the border issue. Joe
Speaker 1: Biden for everything that people feel like, Joe Biden is
Speaker 1: not a hateful person the way that people hate AOC
Speaker 1: or they fear Hillary Clinton presidency or whatever. I don't
Speaker 1: know anyone who could build this coalition together because most
Speaker 1: of the upcoming Democrats are going to be full blown
Speaker 1: Jesse Jackson, It's our time Rainbow coalition, NonStop. Just they
Speaker 1: will be like Harry Lake, like, do you not vote
Speaker 1: for me? If you're a McCain supporter, do not vote
Speaker 1: for me, if you're a white person at a college degree,
Speaker 1: and they are going to excise millions of people the
Speaker 1: Democrats need. I don't know if anyone else on the
Speaker 1: scene right now will be able to put that together.
Speaker 2: If Kamala had to actually be at the top of
Speaker 2: the ticket against Trump, does she lose straight up? I
Speaker 2: mean you think it just doesn't happen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no one. I mean, listen, I'm gonna it's
Speaker 1: very unpopular. Most people don't want a woman president.
Speaker 2: They just don't.
Speaker 1: They don't want a woman president. They don't want they
Speaker 1: don't when female politicians have to walk a very tight
Speaker 1: high wire because they come they try to constantly come
Speaker 1: off stronger than they are, so they come off extremely unappealing.
Speaker 1: And this is a problem with female politicians almost always
Speaker 1: across the board. And Kamala is extraordinarily unlikable. She's just
Speaker 1: extraordinarily unlikable. And I don't know if she has a
Speaker 1: natural constituency anywhere. Yeah, so I don't think she can
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think most Democrats can win
Speaker 1: if they run.
Speaker 2: So we have Ryan making huge predictions for the election
Speaker 2: that is eleven months away. And I will mark this, Dad,
Speaker 2: I will remember this. I like that we got you
Speaker 2: to swing the bat. You know you didn't You didn't say, oh,
Speaker 2: I can't. You know. I appreciate you swung the bat.
Speaker 1: And I mean, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, it doesn't
Speaker 1: really matter, like whatever.
Speaker 2: I don't care Bryan or Dusky. Everybody subscribe to the
Speaker 2: National Populace newsletter on substack and he will be bringing
Speaker 2: you all these insights and you can also probably email
Speaker 2: him and yell at him there for not being sufficiently
Speaker 2: supportive of Donald Trump as the nomad. Anyway, Brian, thank
Speaker 2: you very much. Thanks for having out. I appreciate it.