WEBVTT - Buck Brief - Ryan Girdusky 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.937 You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:14.977 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.017 --> 0:00:19.737 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:20.137 --> 0:00:23.057 Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Gradusky with 0:00:23.137 --> 0:00:27.577 us to talk about Iowa elections, politics, all those good things. 0:00:27.657 --> 0:00:30.657 And also, for those of you who are on YouTuber rumble, 0:00:31.137 --> 0:00:34.377 you can see Ryan's dog is making a guest appearance 0:00:34.417 --> 0:00:37.817 this episode. Ryan, what is Is it a she? And 0:00:37.937 --> 0:00:41.217 what is he? Or she? It's a he is? 0:00:41.577 --> 0:00:44.297 He is a five year old multi poo that I rescued, 0:00:44.497 --> 0:00:48.097 and he's a giant pain ninety percent of the time, 0:00:48.137 --> 0:00:51.977 but he's pretty lovable and he is Yeah, he's a 0:00:52.057 --> 0:00:54.497 five year old multi pooh rescue all right. 0:00:54.417 --> 0:00:58.737 He's very cute. He's currently giving giving some smooches to 0:00:58.897 --> 0:01:02.497 mister Ryan Gerdusky. All right, let's talk about saving America, Ryan, 0:01:03.257 --> 0:01:06.537 and to start with that, where things are for the 0:01:07.057 --> 0:01:11.417 Republicans going into Iowa? I was what ten days away 0:01:11.457 --> 0:01:14.857 as I talk to you, What are there? What are 0:01:14.857 --> 0:01:17.457 the numbers telling us right now? What are the chances 0:01:17.457 --> 0:01:19.737 of there being any real surprise break it down? 0:01:21.257 --> 0:01:24.097 I mean, Iowa is a caucus, right, so it's all 0:01:24.097 --> 0:01:26.737 about organization. It's not typically you don't just show up 0:01:26.777 --> 0:01:29.377 to vote. You're staying in a school or a facility 0:01:29.537 --> 0:01:31.897 for hours at a time to argue and yell with 0:01:31.977 --> 0:01:34.337 people about trying to get your candidate over the line. 0:01:35.137 --> 0:01:37.257 They change the rules all the time. The rules used 0:01:37.257 --> 0:01:40.897 to be that the bottom candidates had to bottom voters 0:01:40.937 --> 0:01:43.097 had to then reassemble to go to the top voters, 0:01:43.097 --> 0:01:46.217 and that's how you picked one. The Democrats still did 0:01:46.257 --> 0:01:48.697 that as of twenty twenty. I don't know if Republicans 0:01:48.737 --> 0:01:51.137 do it anymore. I don't think they do. But it 0:01:51.217 --> 0:01:55.817 is a it's a slog and it's an organization. Trump's 0:01:55.857 --> 0:01:58.297 pole members are the strongest by far, but by like 0:01:58.377 --> 0:02:00.617 twenty five points in Iowa and some of the polls. 0:02:00.657 --> 0:02:04.577 But the thing about organization is that all people who 0:02:04.737 --> 0:02:08.617 organize for winning candidates in Iowa are all behind the Santas. 0:02:08.977 --> 0:02:11.177 That's the thing that he's got the Senator, he's got 0:02:11.777 --> 0:02:16.377 Bob van Platt, he's got the real organization behind him. 0:02:16.537 --> 0:02:18.857 He's got a lot of evangelicals as well behind him. 0:02:19.177 --> 0:02:20.897 I don't know if that will be enough to sit 0:02:20.937 --> 0:02:24.657 there and swing the entire thing. Iowa elections sometimes because 0:02:24.657 --> 0:02:28.097 they are you know, their caucuses have swung as much 0:02:28.097 --> 0:02:31.457 as fifteen points. When Rick Santorum won in twenty twelve, 0:02:31.777 --> 0:02:35.257 he was way behind the polls the day before election day. 0:02:36.737 --> 0:02:39.537 Yet and still that though his numbers were much smaller 0:02:39.577 --> 0:02:42.297 than than Disanna's is right now, the margins rather much 0:02:42.417 --> 0:02:47.057 much smaller. So I you know, it could always be 0:02:47.097 --> 0:02:49.497 a surprise. You never know, the only the only poll 0:02:49.537 --> 0:02:52.057 that matters is the election day poll and who shows up. 0:02:52.937 --> 0:02:56.257 And you know, some Trump supporters get complacent and think 0:02:56.297 --> 0:02:58.297 that he's got this in the bag. There's no point 0:02:58.297 --> 0:03:00.137 of sitting inside of a school for seven hours and 0:03:00.257 --> 0:03:04.537 yelling and screaming. Then you know, then Disantas might surprise it. 0:03:04.537 --> 0:03:08.417 It's not completely uncommon. People have surprised the Iowa caucuses before, 0:03:08.897 --> 0:03:11.537 which is why they're not super indictive. Who's going to 0:03:11.577 --> 0:03:13.617 win the presidence or the presidential nomination. 0:03:13.977 --> 0:03:15.497 So I need you to move to the center of 0:03:15.497 --> 0:03:17.817 the frame so people can see you more easily. And 0:03:17.897 --> 0:03:20.377 also there you go, scooch over and they can't even 0:03:20.377 --> 0:03:22.417 really see the doll. There we go, and now we 0:03:22.417 --> 0:03:25.537 can see the adorable, adorable dog. My brother. My brother 0:03:25.577 --> 0:03:28.897 has a multi Pooh, and my older brother has a Pomeranians. 0:03:28.937 --> 0:03:33.257 We only have the most masculine attack dogs imaginable in 0:03:33.337 --> 0:03:38.057 his family. I have an Australian Labradoodle puppy. So people 0:03:38.097 --> 0:03:41.577 better watch out the burglars better stay out of our places. 0:03:42.417 --> 0:03:45.537 So anyway, back to back to where we are on 0:03:45.577 --> 0:03:48.337 this I you know, if I mean realistically, if Trump 0:03:48.417 --> 0:03:50.417 wins Iowa, do you do you feel like it's over 0:03:50.457 --> 0:03:53.257 and everything else is pretty much a formality. 0:03:54.377 --> 0:03:59.617 If he wins Iowa, definitely Desanders's campaigns over. If he 0:03:59.657 --> 0:04:04.217 goes to New Hampshire because the because independence can vote, 0:04:04.537 --> 0:04:07.937 he could still lose New Hampshire technically because I like 0:04:08.417 --> 0:04:11.137 thirty eight percent of all register are independents and they 0:04:11.177 --> 0:04:14.137 can vote in both the Democrat and Republican primary. There 0:04:14.177 --> 0:04:16.097 is no Democratic primary that day, so they can all 0:04:16.177 --> 0:04:20.617 go in the Republican primary. And Trump does not do 0:04:20.737 --> 0:04:22.857 very well with independence, and that's a chance for Nicki 0:04:22.897 --> 0:04:25.657 Haley to win the day. Also, New Hampshire is another 0:04:25.697 --> 0:04:29.737 state where people way behind the polls have huge comebacks. 0:04:29.817 --> 0:04:34.137 John McCain two thousand and eight. That is where mid 0:04:34.217 --> 0:04:37.337 Romney came back in twenty twelve. That is where Donald 0:04:37.377 --> 0:04:39.857 Trump came back in twenty sixteen. That's where Pappy Kennon 0:04:39.897 --> 0:04:43.737 won nineteen ninety six. These are states that John McCain 0:04:43.777 --> 0:04:46.257 when they're in two thousand, despite being against George W. 0:04:46.337 --> 0:04:50.857 Bush and him being the presumptive nominee. These are states 0:04:50.857 --> 0:04:54.017 that do throw curves, that do make politics interesting. So 0:04:55.577 --> 0:04:57.977 it certainly would be over for de Santas's campaign if 0:04:57.977 --> 0:05:01.697 he cannot win in Iowa. I don't know if it 0:05:01.737 --> 0:05:04.777 would be over for Nicky Haley. She's still fundraising well 0:05:04.857 --> 0:05:07.977 past South Carolina. She has fundraising dates already lined up 0:05:08.017 --> 0:05:11.377 past South Carolina. There is something to say about a 0:05:11.417 --> 0:05:15.057 candidate who stays in for the long haul despite you know, 0:05:15.857 --> 0:05:19.177 only garnering thirty percent or whatever. That's what Jesse Jackson 0:05:19.257 --> 0:05:22.897 in nineteen eighty eight, and although his candidacy did not win, 0:05:22.977 --> 0:05:24.257 his ideas certainly did. 0:05:24.377 --> 0:05:27.457 So you never know. If I want, I want to 0:05:27.537 --> 0:05:29.217 jump in here for because you mentioned Nicky Haley, and 0:05:29.257 --> 0:05:33.777 that's gonna be my next question. Explain Nicky Haley to 0:05:33.857 --> 0:05:37.297 me right now. She just raised like forty five million 0:05:37.377 --> 0:05:42.457 ride or something like that. I have yet to meet 0:05:42.497 --> 0:05:44.897 a person in real life. Now, maybe this just is 0:05:45.257 --> 0:05:48.817 telling people who my friends are. I've yet I have. 0:05:49.057 --> 0:05:51.817 I have obviously a lot of Trump and DeSantis supporters 0:05:51.857 --> 0:05:54.577 that I know in my life. I come across, you know, 0:05:54.697 --> 0:05:57.577 go to events, see people. I even have. I have 0:05:57.617 --> 0:06:00.817 friends who are VIVAC voters. They'll vote for Verveke over 0:06:00.857 --> 0:06:02.497 anybody else. I don't have a lot of them, but 0:06:02.497 --> 0:06:05.617 I have like a couple. I don't know anybody who 0:06:05.697 --> 0:06:08.017 is all in on Nicky Haley, and yet she's surging, 0:06:08.137 --> 0:06:11.297 She's raising millions, the donor class likes her. What's what's 0:06:11.337 --> 0:06:13.457 going on? Like, explain the Haley phenomenon. 0:06:14.977 --> 0:06:18.377 Uh, Nikki Haley is one. There's a lot of people 0:06:19.017 --> 0:06:22.617 in politics period who want a girl president, so that's 0:06:22.737 --> 0:06:26.057 part of it. Secondly, she's extreme. I mean, Nikki Helly 0:06:26.097 --> 0:06:28.097 is now a joke Neily. He's been around for in 0:06:28.217 --> 0:06:30.977 politics for over twenty years, going back to when she 0:06:31.017 --> 0:06:34.577 was in the state House. She's extremely well polished, and 0:06:34.857 --> 0:06:38.897 she offers a lot of Republicans the alternative that they 0:06:39.017 --> 0:06:42.057 want to hear, which is somebody who is more hawkish 0:06:42.177 --> 0:06:46.577 on foreign policy, less culture war, less less about the 0:06:46.617 --> 0:06:50.617 culture wars, a throwback to an older time in Republicans 0:06:50.617 --> 0:06:55.617 and somebody with who seems respectable, and she a lot 0:06:55.657 --> 0:06:58.737 of a lot of people vote for their candidate on vibes, 0:06:59.217 --> 0:07:02.017 and she gives the vibe of a woman who's very strong. 0:07:02.537 --> 0:07:06.817 She's a boss, and she is not going to disrespect 0:07:06.817 --> 0:07:09.817 the office of the presidency. I have actually my very 0:07:09.897 --> 0:07:12.697 very very very close friend from college. His mom is 0:07:12.737 --> 0:07:16.937 a Nicki Haley supporter, and she absolutely hates Donald Trump 0:07:17.017 --> 0:07:19.937 because Donald Trump she thought disrespect of the office of 0:07:19.977 --> 0:07:22.417 the president and that is a big deal to her 0:07:22.777 --> 0:07:26.097 and that's why she thinks that Nikki Hilly wouldn't do that. 0:07:26.177 --> 0:07:29.377 So that's partially the group. And also she's not going 0:07:29.457 --> 0:07:32.857 to make waves. Nikkiy Hilly is not going to like, 0:07:33.017 --> 0:07:36.057 you know, change her immigration system immensely. She's not going 0:07:36.097 --> 0:07:39.017 to change our trade policy imensely. She's going to be 0:07:40.057 --> 0:07:43.217 you know, she'll probably appoint decent judges. And that's probably 0:07:43.217 --> 0:07:44.897 all we're going to get out of her. That it's 0:07:44.897 --> 0:07:47.697 going to be important other than try to declare war 0:07:47.817 --> 0:07:49.337 with a round or anybody else. 0:07:49.737 --> 0:07:51.457 All right. I mean, the good news is, you know, 0:07:51.697 --> 0:07:55.537 if Nikki Haley gets elected, load up on that defense 0:07:55.617 --> 0:08:02.537 contractor stock. I want to ask you about the Democrat 0:08:02.617 --> 0:08:04.497 side of this equation. Here a second, but first up 0:08:04.537 --> 0:08:06.337 from our sponsor, and you can tend to your cute 0:08:06.337 --> 0:08:10.617 little fluffy flu multi pooh over there. She's very he 0:08:10.617 --> 0:08:14.657 he sorry, very masculine, very cute. He's a rescue, so 0:08:14.697 --> 0:08:17.217 he's tough. He's seen some stuff, man. 0:08:18.577 --> 0:08:19.617 A lot of other talks. 0:08:20.017 --> 0:08:23.217 You know. He's a he's a rescue. He'll he'll, he'll 0:08:23.257 --> 0:08:25.097 cut a pooch, you know what I mean, he'll. 0:08:27.217 --> 0:08:27.657 Anybody. 0:08:28.417 --> 0:08:30.737 Yeah, that's true. All right, Look, this could not come 0:08:30.777 --> 0:08:33.617 at a better time in our society. I'm speaking of 0:08:33.657 --> 0:08:36.177 a new company with a new membership offer. It's from 0:08:36.257 --> 0:08:39.137 a company called Patriot Defender. Legal defense for you and me, 0:08:39.217 --> 0:08:41.577 the commedy need most these days, no cost legal defense 0:08:41.577 --> 0:08:44.697 to protect your rights, freedom's reputation, and your way of life. 0:08:45.017 --> 0:08:47.377 Speak up at a school board meeting about vaccine mandates, 0:08:47.417 --> 0:08:49.977 suffer the consequences. Your legal defense is covered. Right to 0:08:50.017 --> 0:08:53.697 free speech is denied, suffer consequences. Legal defense is covered. 0:08:53.977 --> 0:08:57.977 Use your Second Amendment rights to defend yourself covered. I 0:08:58.137 --> 0:09:01.337 r s audit for political targeting covered. I'm a big 0:09:01.337 --> 0:09:03.377 believer in this kind of defense. It's something you want 0:09:03.417 --> 0:09:05.377 to have just in case that day arrives where your 0:09:05.457 --> 0:09:08.697 rights are being violated, you will have legal backup. My friends, 0:09:08.697 --> 0:09:12.737 go to patriot Defender dot com. Patriotdefender dot com the 0:09:12.857 --> 0:09:16.097 only membership organization of its kind that goes beyond just 0:09:16.137 --> 0:09:20.497 concealed cary weapons defense, a whole bunch of constitutionally protected 0:09:20.577 --> 0:09:24.337 rights where you're getting back up, legal backup from Patriot Defense. 0:09:24.377 --> 0:09:28.137 Go to Patriot defender dot com. All right, on the 0:09:28.217 --> 0:09:32.177 Democrat side of things. So, now Ryan, we have passed 0:09:32.697 --> 0:09:34.337 you and I have been talking to this for many months, 0:09:34.377 --> 0:09:35.937 and I appreciate you've been a voice of standing. Well, 0:09:35.937 --> 0:09:39.497 everyone's like, you don't understand. They're gonna RFK Junior and 0:09:39.617 --> 0:09:43.057 Newsome are gonna run a two day primary, and it 0:09:43.177 --> 0:09:45.657 is all this crazy stuff. I've just it makes no sense, 0:09:45.737 --> 0:09:49.657 right right, That's not happening now right, So now it's all, Oh, 0:09:49.697 --> 0:09:52.177 they're gonna they're gonna change things out at the convention. 0:09:53.737 --> 0:09:53.937 Yeah. 0:09:54.777 --> 0:09:59.217 To me, abandoning a president and a vice president in 0:09:59.297 --> 0:10:03.417 office for a convention floor fight is electoral suicide. Am 0:10:03.457 --> 0:10:05.977 I missing something? Uh? 0:10:06.097 --> 0:10:10.097 No, you're not. It's not going to happen. And for 0:10:10.177 --> 0:10:13.337 some reason they believe they also this weird belief that 0:10:13.457 --> 0:10:15.657 Republicans have because they're only listening to a lot of 0:10:15.657 --> 0:10:19.057 Republican media, which is only talking about Gavin Newsom as 0:10:19.097 --> 0:10:22.777 if Democrat. There's not a single other Democrat in the 0:10:22.857 --> 0:10:27.097 country who wants to probably be president, and there's just 0:10:27.097 --> 0:10:31.137 just Gavin Newsom as if he's ordained to be such 0:10:32.097 --> 0:10:34.177 no a floor or fight would be a disaster, and 0:10:34.217 --> 0:10:38.697 you would have literally half a dozen Democrats from very 0:10:38.697 --> 0:10:41.577 big states that control most of the delegates all running 0:10:41.657 --> 0:10:44.617 up against each other and fighting. And I mean, it's 0:10:44.657 --> 0:10:46.937 this is so insane. It's not going to happen, Like 0:10:46.977 --> 0:10:49.657 it's literally not going to happen. It hasn't ever happened. 0:10:49.697 --> 0:10:54.577 It's not going to happen this time. Besides death or 0:10:54.617 --> 0:10:59.217 a severe injury that is crippling. Joe Biden will be 0:10:59.457 --> 0:11:01.897 the presidential nominee in twenty twenty four? 0:11:02.617 --> 0:11:04.937 Is is he so that the people that I that 0:11:05.017 --> 0:11:09.457 I talk to who think that it's not just going 0:11:09.497 --> 0:11:11.057 to be like a walk in the park for Trump. 0:11:11.817 --> 0:11:15.417 The primary thing that there's the there's the legal stuff 0:11:15.417 --> 0:11:17.857 that they're doing, obviously, the prosecutions and the taking him 0:11:17.857 --> 0:11:20.777 off the ballot, the taking him off the state ballot thing. No, 0:11:20.857 --> 0:11:23.217 I don't think any serious person believes that that's actually 0:11:23.217 --> 0:11:25.657 going to work in the end, but it's it's they 0:11:25.777 --> 0:11:27.937 like the optics of it, even if it loses the 0:11:28.057 --> 0:11:30.097 legal stuff. You know, who knows that's a little bit 0:11:30.097 --> 0:11:31.617 of a more of a coin cost depending on what 0:11:31.697 --> 0:11:33.617 the Supreme Court does in a few places, you know, 0:11:33.657 --> 0:11:37.857 the prosecutions. But what I hear from people is, yeah, 0:11:37.897 --> 0:11:40.497 the Democrats haven't opened up their campaign on Trump yet 0:11:40.537 --> 0:11:43.137 and that's what will change the numbers. How much of 0:11:43.137 --> 0:11:45.737 that do you buy versus how much of what we're 0:11:45.737 --> 0:11:49.017 seeing right now is Joe Biden is bad at his 0:11:49.137 --> 0:11:52.217 job and a lot of people are recognizing that maybe 0:11:52.217 --> 0:11:53.017 who didn't before. 0:11:54.217 --> 0:11:58.137 Well, Joe Biden is also has there's not a lot 0:11:58.177 --> 0:12:00.697 of competency brings to it because he is he is 0:12:00.737 --> 0:12:03.057 a man of a particular age who seems older than 0:12:03.097 --> 0:12:07.217 he is, and that that gives a lot of people 0:12:07.337 --> 0:12:10.417 pause in a lot of different demographics that he means. 0:12:11.017 --> 0:12:14.017 What Joe Biden has going for him is the most 0:12:14.017 --> 0:12:16.897 critical swing states in this country are still for as 0:12:16.937 --> 0:12:20.777 divers donation as we've become, still about ninety percent black 0:12:20.817 --> 0:12:25.217 white states, so Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Misty, Gain Wisconsin. 0:12:26.377 --> 0:12:29.537 With the exception of Texas, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, these 0:12:29.537 --> 0:12:32.497 are ninety percent black white states. Even New Hampshire, if 0:12:32.497 --> 0:12:33.977 you want to throw it in there. Things got really 0:12:34.057 --> 0:12:38.697 wild where trumps surge or is all coming from. Even 0:12:38.737 --> 0:12:41.057 if you include the polling that has them strong with 0:12:41.097 --> 0:12:43.097 black voters, which I don't know if I believe or not, 0:12:43.457 --> 0:12:48.297 But if you include that polling, the numbers that he 0:12:48.337 --> 0:12:50.017 has had in New York Times numbers, I think he 0:12:50.137 --> 0:12:53.257 was down twenty one points with college educated whites, which 0:12:53.297 --> 0:12:56.137 we put him on path for the worst performance with 0:12:56.177 --> 0:12:59.377 college educated whites since Verry Goldwater in nineteen sixty four. 0:13:00.297 --> 0:13:03.057 Is there a path if you lose that by that 0:13:03.297 --> 0:13:05.777 much to make it up for it with non college 0:13:05.857 --> 0:13:11.097 educated whites and minorities. Yes, there is technically, but I 0:13:11.257 --> 0:13:15.177 don't have a ton of confidence in that. It's never 0:13:15.217 --> 0:13:16.977 been done before. He's trying to have to build a 0:13:17.017 --> 0:13:19.937 new coalition. You're building a new coalition with one hundred 0:13:19.977 --> 0:13:22.297 percent name ideal already going in. No one's going to 0:13:22.417 --> 0:13:24.737 learn anything on Donald Trump. I like they're learning on 0:13:24.817 --> 0:13:27.097 Joe Biden. At this point, it's gonna be based on 0:13:28.137 --> 0:13:30.377 who shows up, which is gonna be a high turnout 0:13:30.377 --> 0:13:35.577 election because college is k Whites always turn out, and 0:13:35.777 --> 0:13:37.777 the question of do young people turn out to black 0:13:37.817 --> 0:13:41.897 people turn out. If black vote to Clea fines by 0:13:41.977 --> 0:13:45.857 one percent from what it was in twenty twenty four, 0:13:46.457 --> 0:13:49.297 donald Trump will probably be president. Just like if the 0:13:49.417 --> 0:13:52.217 black vote mimics what it happens. Black vote declined by 0:13:52.297 --> 0:13:54.697 one percent in twenty sixteen, which put Donald mac donald 0:13:54.737 --> 0:13:57.617 Trump president. That one person declined would make him president. 0:13:57.697 --> 0:14:00.617 But I don't know if it's overall going to happen. 0:14:00.817 --> 0:14:04.617 You could. That's like the big, big question. What's also happening, 0:14:04.777 --> 0:14:06.577 which is a mix I put this on my subset, 0:14:06.657 --> 0:14:10.057 which is very very important. A lot of older Black vote, 0:14:10.257 --> 0:14:13.017 which are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc. You know, 0:14:13.217 --> 0:14:14.777 time has gone on, a lot of them have started 0:14:14.857 --> 0:14:18.057 dying out, a lot of the new Silent generation group 0:14:18.137 --> 0:14:21.617 within that demographic, and they're being replaced by younger Gen 0:14:21.737 --> 0:14:26.097 Z black voters who are less ideologically aligned with the 0:14:26.137 --> 0:14:28.897 Democratic Party and less partisan of the Democratic Party. So 0:14:29.577 --> 0:14:33.257 the idea of Republicans getting twelve percent of the Black 0:14:33.337 --> 0:14:36.577 vote elevens in the black vote are more likely now 0:14:36.577 --> 0:14:40.497 than ever. But it's not because of any real partisan change. 0:14:40.497 --> 0:14:43.377 It's mostly because of a demographic change of one generation 0:14:43.537 --> 0:14:45.137 dying while though I'm being born. 0:14:45.857 --> 0:14:48.657 So I promise, if you get this right, we will 0:14:48.697 --> 0:14:53.497 revisit this in eleven months. But if you get it wrong, 0:14:53.537 --> 0:14:55.497 we're going to pretend like it never happened. And you're 0:14:55.537 --> 0:14:59.017 going to tell me after this sponsor read, You're going 0:14:59.057 --> 0:15:02.977 to tell me right now, going with your gut, what 0:15:03.417 --> 0:15:07.017 who's in the presidential election? What happens in the presidential election? 0:15:07.537 --> 0:15:10.377 And why? So I'm you're calling a shot here in 0:15:10.417 --> 0:15:14.337 the upper deck, way up there. And the good news 0:15:14.377 --> 0:15:17.217 is people could listen to this and they'll say, you'll 0:15:17.217 --> 0:15:18.577 think one thing or the other, but you can't be 0:15:18.617 --> 0:15:20.817 wrong because it hasn't happened yet. And if you're right, Ryan, 0:15:20.857 --> 0:15:23.377 I'm gonna mark this down. We're gonna blast us everywhere 0:15:23.417 --> 0:15:25.177 after election day. And if you're wrong, no one's even 0:15:25.177 --> 0:15:27.737 at our mother so sold wait, so so you think 0:15:27.777 --> 0:15:29.897 about it while I while I speak to our sponsor 0:15:29.937 --> 0:15:32.617 here for a second. The tunnel. The Towers Foundation does 0:15:32.657 --> 0:15:35.457 amazing work. They made a promise after the tragedy of 0:15:35.497 --> 0:15:38.297 nine to eleven. To make sure we never forget, Tunnel 0:15:38.337 --> 0:15:41.137 to Towers is committed to supporting America's heroes and their families. 0:15:41.177 --> 0:15:45.777 Heroes like US Army specialist Michael Hook. Specialist Hook lost 0:15:45.817 --> 0:15:47.897 his life in a rock when his helicopter was shot down. 0:15:47.937 --> 0:15:50.417 He enlisted in the military after graduating high school. He 0:15:50.497 --> 0:15:52.577 left behind a pregnant fiancee who gave birth to a 0:15:52.617 --> 0:15:55.017 son he would never meet. 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That's the website to go to 0:16:25.817 --> 0:16:30.697 to donate t the number two T dot org. All right, Ryan, 0:16:31.377 --> 0:16:33.097 I asked you to call your shot. I mean, this 0:16:33.217 --> 0:16:35.097 is like hitting a home run that goes out of 0:16:35.137 --> 0:16:37.577 the stadium and into the parking lots. It's eleven months out. 0:16:38.017 --> 0:16:41.377 Who is in the general election? Who wins the general election? 0:16:41.537 --> 0:16:43.377 And why do you think when all said and done, 0:16:43.377 --> 0:16:44.657 they will have won the general election? 0:16:47.097 --> 0:16:50.537 I think it's gonna be Joe Biden Kamala Harris versus 0:16:50.617 --> 0:16:53.857 Donald Trump. And I mean I'm not picking his VP, 0:16:54.097 --> 0:16:58.257 but it will probably be I think the top like 0:16:58.377 --> 0:17:01.697 three contenders for VP would be like, I don't know, 0:17:01.857 --> 0:17:07.177 JD Van's, Tim Scott and Christy Nome and then the 0:17:08.377 --> 0:17:13.137 nominee will I probably would bet on Joe Biden winning 0:17:13.137 --> 0:17:17.617 re election. By he'll probably win. He'll probably lose Arizona, 0:17:18.097 --> 0:17:21.217 which he won the last time, and he'll lose Wisconsin, 0:17:21.217 --> 0:17:23.617 which he won the last time. But the demographics of 0:17:23.657 --> 0:17:26.897 Georgia are moving too progressively and there's not enough college 0:17:26.977 --> 0:17:30.457 educata whites that would flip back to maybe win Georgia, 0:17:30.897 --> 0:17:34.217 and the black vote is only increased Pennsylvania. The college 0:17:34.297 --> 0:17:37.497 educata white vote is just gigantic, and it's getting bigger 0:17:37.537 --> 0:17:41.937 while the rurals are emptying out and Michigan, I just 0:17:43.217 --> 0:17:45.377 I think that the Michigan vote will be strong enough 0:17:45.377 --> 0:17:49.617 for Biden to keep that state blue. Because the College 0:17:49.617 --> 0:17:51.777 of Ka whites on the west coast don't hate Joe 0:17:51.777 --> 0:17:53.617 Biden like the like the on the western side of 0:17:53.617 --> 0:17:55.937 the state don't hate Joe Biden like they hate Hillary. It 0:17:55.977 --> 0:18:00.577 will be very very very very tight. I think Trump 0:18:00.577 --> 0:18:07.697 could probably flip Arizona and flip Wisconsin, but I don't 0:18:07.817 --> 0:18:10.497 know if he can flip Michigan, pennsylvani you know, or 0:18:10.537 --> 0:18:14.777 Georgia or Nevada. But as a right I mean literally, 0:18:14.857 --> 0:18:17.817 it's gonna be a right now. I hate making predictions. 0:18:17.857 --> 0:18:19.857 I don't know even just agree to this, but that's 0:18:19.897 --> 0:18:21.377 what I would say as of right now. 0:18:21.457 --> 0:18:23.337 Well, the good news, like I said, if you nail 0:18:23.377 --> 0:18:24.737 any of this, by the way, you can just cut 0:18:24.737 --> 0:18:26.417 it too. So we just get you all the parts 0:18:26.417 --> 0:18:28.297 that you're right, so you're we can be shameless here. 0:18:28.417 --> 0:18:30.977 Editorial freedom literally editorial free. 0:18:31.937 --> 0:18:34.457 Anything could happen. But like this is what I'm looking 0:18:34.457 --> 0:18:36.657 at right now is do the college educated white boats 0:18:36.657 --> 0:18:39.297 and now the non college to show up and and 0:18:39.417 --> 0:18:42.177 do minorities not show up. Those are the big three questions. 0:18:42.257 --> 0:18:45.337 And because I think that most people's minds are set 0:18:46.577 --> 0:18:49.337 and that's, uh, that's kind of where. 0:18:49.217 --> 0:18:51.377 People are, right. Do Republicans take the Senate? 0:18:52.497 --> 0:18:55.537 Yeah, I think they went on Tanna back. I think 0:18:55.577 --> 0:18:59.657 they went West Virginia. I don't know about Ohio. Shared 0:18:59.697 --> 0:19:03.817 Brown's a tough soob Michigan who knows. And I don't 0:19:03.817 --> 0:19:05.417 think they're going at Arizona. 0:19:05.537 --> 0:19:10.297 Do you think, uh, billionaire guy in Pennsylvan and you 0:19:11.257 --> 0:19:14.257 know I'm talking about David mccorm you think he can win? 0:19:15.217 --> 0:19:20.617 No chance? Wow, not a chance. Ryan swinging the bat 0:19:21.137 --> 0:19:25.897 not fearless, fearless swinging at these pitches. Jesus. All right man, 0:19:25.937 --> 0:19:28.337 I mean, look, you everyone got to hear it. I 0:19:28.377 --> 0:19:30.577 know our pro Trump audience right over there, they've already 0:19:30.617 --> 0:19:33.777 to They've already like clicked off this. It's okay. 0:19:34.777 --> 0:19:37.097 I hope I mean listen, Royce, is Biden or Trump? 0:19:37.137 --> 0:19:39.297 I would hope for Trump, But like at the same 0:19:39.337 --> 0:19:41.897 time time, I'm looking at the numbers. I don't know. 0:19:43.137 --> 0:19:46.417 I don't know if the growth with hispans nations. And 0:19:46.457 --> 0:19:49.297 the question is can Trump close the gap? And you know, 0:19:49.337 --> 0:19:51.537 can he win you know, can he close an Orange 0:19:51.577 --> 0:19:56.337 County Florida? Yeah? Can he get ten points higher in California? Maybe, 0:19:56.377 --> 0:19:58.337 like he can do all those things. But if you 0:19:58.377 --> 0:20:01.057 look at where the states are that matter, you know, 0:20:01.297 --> 0:20:05.697 the RUSS the white white non college educator vote is smaller. 0:20:05.697 --> 0:20:08.297 And do you think do you do you think the 0:20:08.457 --> 0:20:11.697 the idea that Demo crats are panicked about Joe Biden 0:20:11.777 --> 0:20:13.777 is overstated? You think you think they actually. 0:20:16.177 --> 0:20:17.977 I know quite a few have said we're going to 0:20:18.017 --> 0:20:20.577 give up, like nothing, they're going to give up, but 0:20:20.737 --> 0:20:24.137 they have come they've already rested on the idea that 0:20:24.417 --> 0:20:27.097 Democrats they believe. A few people that I know who 0:20:27.097 --> 0:20:30.617 are really smart, said, you know, we're going to win 0:20:30.657 --> 0:20:32.777 the House. The Democrats will win the House back, they'll 0:20:32.817 --> 0:20:35.537 lose the Senate, and they'll lose the presidency. And they're 0:20:35.657 --> 0:20:37.257 just going to come to the conclusion that they're going 0:20:37.297 --> 0:20:39.857 to lose the presidency now to deal with it. So 0:20:39.937 --> 0:20:42.097 if they do win it, it's a big win and 0:20:42.097 --> 0:20:44.337 they're very very happy about it, but they do believe 0:20:44.377 --> 0:20:45.977 that they're going to lose as it right now because 0:20:46.017 --> 0:20:49.337 Joe Biden. But I don't know any other Democratic that 0:20:49.497 --> 0:20:53.577 put together the coalition needed for the Democratic Party. Remember 0:20:54.337 --> 0:20:56.977 one in for sorry go ahead. 0:20:56.737 --> 0:20:58.177 No you go, you go ahead because I have a 0:20:58.177 --> 0:20:59.897 common question for you. But one in. 0:20:59.977 --> 0:21:03.817 Four Biden voters are voter are white people without a 0:21:03.857 --> 0:21:07.417 college degree. They should be Republicans by this point, but 0:21:07.457 --> 0:21:09.417 they are still not because of a certain a few 0:21:09.457 --> 0:21:13.457 issues that keep them within the Democratic line. Sixty one 0:21:13.537 --> 0:21:18.497 percent of all Democrats are white voters. The number of 0:21:18.777 --> 0:21:21.337 noncollecated whites is going to go down. But all Biden 0:21:21.417 --> 0:21:24.377 has done, all the Democratic Party has done is sit 0:21:24.417 --> 0:21:27.217 there and tell white voters, we don't want to hear 0:21:27.257 --> 0:21:29.257 from you. Is why we're not doing Iowa caucus, we're 0:21:29.257 --> 0:21:31.097