1 00:00:11,697 --> 00:00:14,937 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 2 00:00:14,977 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:18,017 --> 00:00:19,737 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. 4 00:00:20,137 --> 00:00:23,057 Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Gradusky with 5 00:00:23,137 --> 00:00:27,577 Speaker 2: us to talk about Iowa elections, politics, all those good things. 6 00:00:27,657 --> 00:00:30,657 Speaker 2: And also, for those of you who are on YouTuber rumble, 7 00:00:31,137 --> 00:00:34,377 Speaker 2: you can see Ryan's dog is making a guest appearance 8 00:00:34,417 --> 00:00:37,817 Speaker 2: this episode. Ryan, what is Is it a she? And 9 00:00:37,937 --> 00:00:41,217 Speaker 2: what is he? Or she? It's a he is? 10 00:00:41,577 --> 00:00:44,297 Speaker 1: He is a five year old multi poo that I rescued, 11 00:00:44,497 --> 00:00:48,097 Speaker 1: and he's a giant pain ninety percent of the time, 12 00:00:48,137 --> 00:00:51,977 Speaker 1: but he's pretty lovable and he is Yeah, he's a 13 00:00:52,057 --> 00:00:54,497 Speaker 1: five year old multi pooh rescue all right. 14 00:00:54,417 --> 00:00:58,737 Speaker 2: He's very cute. He's currently giving giving some smooches to 15 00:00:58,897 --> 00:01:02,497 Speaker 2: mister Ryan Gerdusky. All right, let's talk about saving America, Ryan, 16 00:01:03,257 --> 00:01:06,537 Speaker 2: and to start with that, where things are for the 17 00:01:07,057 --> 00:01:11,417 Speaker 2: Republicans going into Iowa? I was what ten days away 18 00:01:11,457 --> 00:01:14,857 Speaker 2: as I talk to you, What are there? What are 19 00:01:14,857 --> 00:01:17,457 Speaker 2: the numbers telling us right now? What are the chances 20 00:01:17,457 --> 00:01:19,737 Speaker 2: of there being any real surprise break it down? 21 00:01:21,257 --> 00:01:24,097 Speaker 1: I mean, Iowa is a caucus, right, so it's all 22 00:01:24,097 --> 00:01:26,737 Speaker 1: about organization. It's not typically you don't just show up 23 00:01:26,777 --> 00:01:29,377 Speaker 1: to vote. You're staying in a school or a facility 24 00:01:29,537 --> 00:01:31,897 Speaker 1: for hours at a time to argue and yell with 25 00:01:31,977 --> 00:01:34,337 Speaker 1: people about trying to get your candidate over the line. 26 00:01:35,137 --> 00:01:37,257 Speaker 1: They change the rules all the time. The rules used 27 00:01:37,257 --> 00:01:40,897 Speaker 1: to be that the bottom candidates had to bottom voters 28 00:01:40,937 --> 00:01:43,097 Speaker 1: had to then reassemble to go to the top voters, 29 00:01:43,097 --> 00:01:46,217 Speaker 1: and that's how you picked one. The Democrats still did 30 00:01:46,257 --> 00:01:48,697 Speaker 1: that as of twenty twenty. I don't know if Republicans 31 00:01:48,737 --> 00:01:51,137 Speaker 1: do it anymore. I don't think they do. But it 32 00:01:51,217 --> 00:01:55,817 Speaker 1: is a it's a slog and it's an organization. Trump's 33 00:01:55,857 --> 00:01:58,297 Speaker 1: pole members are the strongest by far, but by like 34 00:01:58,377 --> 00:02:00,617 Speaker 1: twenty five points in Iowa and some of the polls. 35 00:02:00,657 --> 00:02:04,577 Speaker 1: But the thing about organization is that all people who 36 00:02:04,737 --> 00:02:08,617 Speaker 1: organize for winning candidates in Iowa are all behind the Santas. 37 00:02:08,977 --> 00:02:11,177 Speaker 1: That's the thing that he's got the Senator, he's got 38 00:02:11,777 --> 00:02:16,377 Speaker 1: Bob van Platt, he's got the real organization behind him. 39 00:02:16,537 --> 00:02:18,857 Speaker 1: He's got a lot of evangelicals as well behind him. 40 00:02:19,177 --> 00:02:20,897 Speaker 1: I don't know if that will be enough to sit 41 00:02:20,937 --> 00:02:24,657 Speaker 1: there and swing the entire thing. Iowa elections sometimes because 42 00:02:24,657 --> 00:02:28,097 Speaker 1: they are you know, their caucuses have swung as much 43 00:02:28,097 --> 00:02:31,457 Speaker 1: as fifteen points. When Rick Santorum won in twenty twelve, 44 00:02:31,777 --> 00:02:35,257 Speaker 1: he was way behind the polls the day before election day. 45 00:02:36,737 --> 00:02:39,537 Speaker 1: Yet and still that though his numbers were much smaller 46 00:02:39,577 --> 00:02:42,297 Speaker 1: than than Disanna's is right now, the margins rather much 47 00:02:42,417 --> 00:02:47,057 Speaker 1: much smaller. So I you know, it could always be 48 00:02:47,097 --> 00:02:49,497 Speaker 1: a surprise. You never know, the only the only poll 49 00:02:49,537 --> 00:02:52,057 Speaker 1: that matters is the election day poll and who shows up. 50 00:02:52,937 --> 00:02:56,257 Speaker 1: And you know, some Trump supporters get complacent and think 51 00:02:56,297 --> 00:02:58,297 Speaker 1: that he's got this in the bag. There's no point 52 00:02:58,297 --> 00:03:00,137 Speaker 1: of sitting inside of a school for seven hours and 53 00:03:00,257 --> 00:03:04,537 Speaker 1: yelling and screaming. Then you know, then Disantas might surprise it. 54 00:03:04,537 --> 00:03:08,417 Speaker 1: It's not completely uncommon. People have surprised the Iowa caucuses before, 55 00:03:08,897 --> 00:03:11,537 Speaker 1: which is why they're not super indictive. Who's going to 56 00:03:11,577 --> 00:03:13,617 Speaker 1: win the presidence or the presidential nomination. 57 00:03:13,977 --> 00:03:15,497 Speaker 2: So I need you to move to the center of 58 00:03:15,497 --> 00:03:17,817 Speaker 2: the frame so people can see you more easily. And 59 00:03:17,897 --> 00:03:20,377 Speaker 2: also there you go, scooch over and they can't even 60 00:03:20,377 --> 00:03:22,417 Speaker 2: really see the doll. There we go, and now we 61 00:03:22,417 --> 00:03:25,537 Speaker 2: can see the adorable, adorable dog. My brother. My brother 62 00:03:25,577 --> 00:03:28,897 Speaker 2: has a multi Pooh, and my older brother has a Pomeranians. 63 00:03:28,937 --> 00:03:33,257 Speaker 2: We only have the most masculine attack dogs imaginable in 64 00:03:33,337 --> 00:03:38,057 Speaker 2: his family. I have an Australian Labradoodle puppy. So people 65 00:03:38,097 --> 00:03:41,577 Speaker 2: better watch out the burglars better stay out of our places. 66 00:03:42,417 --> 00:03:45,537 Speaker 2: So anyway, back to back to where we are on 67 00:03:45,577 --> 00:03:48,337 Speaker 2: this I you know, if I mean realistically, if Trump 68 00:03:48,417 --> 00:03:50,417 Speaker 2: wins Iowa, do you do you feel like it's over 69 00:03:50,457 --> 00:03:53,257 Speaker 2: and everything else is pretty much a formality. 70 00:03:54,377 --> 00:03:59,617 Speaker 1: If he wins Iowa, definitely Desanders's campaigns over. If he 71 00:03:59,657 --> 00:04:04,217 Speaker 1: goes to New Hampshire because the because independence can vote, 72 00:04:04,537 --> 00:04:07,937 Speaker 1: he could still lose New Hampshire technically because I like 73 00:04:08,417 --> 00:04:11,137 Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of all register are independents and they 74 00:04:11,177 --> 00:04:14,137 Speaker 1: can vote in both the Democrat and Republican primary. There 75 00:04:14,177 --> 00:04:16,097 Speaker 1: is no Democratic primary that day, so they can all 76 00:04:16,177 --> 00:04:20,617 Speaker 1: go in the Republican primary. And Trump does not do 77 00:04:20,737 --> 00:04:22,857 Speaker 1: very well with independence, and that's a chance for Nicki 78 00:04:22,897 --> 00:04:25,657 Speaker 1: Haley to win the day. Also, New Hampshire is another 79 00:04:25,697 --> 00:04:29,737 Speaker 1: state where people way behind the polls have huge comebacks. 80 00:04:29,817 --> 00:04:34,137 Speaker 1: John McCain two thousand and eight. That is where mid 81 00:04:34,217 --> 00:04:37,337 Speaker 1: Romney came back in twenty twelve. That is where Donald 82 00:04:37,377 --> 00:04:39,857 Speaker 1: Trump came back in twenty sixteen. That's where Pappy Kennon 83 00:04:39,897 --> 00:04:43,737 Speaker 1: won nineteen ninety six. These are states that John McCain 84 00:04:43,777 --> 00:04:46,257 Speaker 1: when they're in two thousand, despite being against George W. 85 00:04:46,337 --> 00:04:50,857 Speaker 1: Bush and him being the presumptive nominee. These are states 86 00:04:50,857 --> 00:04:54,017 Speaker 1: that do throw curves, that do make politics interesting. So 87 00:04:55,577 --> 00:04:57,977 Speaker 1: it certainly would be over for de Santas's campaign if 88 00:04:57,977 --> 00:05:01,697 Speaker 1: he cannot win in Iowa. I don't know if it 89 00:05:01,737 --> 00:05:04,777 Speaker 1: would be over for Nicky Haley. She's still fundraising well 90 00:05:04,857 --> 00:05:07,977 Speaker 1: past South Carolina. She has fundraising dates already lined up 91 00:05:08,017 --> 00:05:11,377 Speaker 1: past South Carolina. There is something to say about a 92 00:05:11,417 --> 00:05:15,057 Speaker 1: candidate who stays in for the long haul despite you know, 93 00:05:15,857 --> 00:05:19,177 Speaker 1: only garnering thirty percent or whatever. That's what Jesse Jackson 94 00:05:19,257 --> 00:05:22,897 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty eight, and although his candidacy did not win, 95 00:05:22,977 --> 00:05:24,257 Speaker 1: his ideas certainly did. 96 00:05:24,377 --> 00:05:27,457 Speaker 2: So you never know. If I want, I want to 97 00:05:27,537 --> 00:05:29,217 Speaker 2: jump in here for because you mentioned Nicky Haley, and 98 00:05:29,257 --> 00:05:33,777 Speaker 2: that's gonna be my next question. Explain Nicky Haley to 99 00:05:33,857 --> 00:05:37,297 Speaker 2: me right now. She just raised like forty five million 100 00:05:37,377 --> 00:05:42,457 Speaker 2: ride or something like that. I have yet to meet 101 00:05:42,497 --> 00:05:44,897 Speaker 2: a person in real life. Now, maybe this just is 102 00:05:45,257 --> 00:05:48,817 Speaker 2: telling people who my friends are. I've yet I have. 103 00:05:49,057 --> 00:05:51,817 Speaker 2: I have obviously a lot of Trump and DeSantis supporters 104 00:05:51,857 --> 00:05:54,577 Speaker 2: that I know in my life. I come across, you know, 105 00:05:54,697 --> 00:05:57,577 Speaker 2: go to events, see people. I even have. I have 106 00:05:57,617 --> 00:06:00,817 Speaker 2: friends who are VIVAC voters. They'll vote for Verveke over 107 00:06:00,857 --> 00:06:02,497 Speaker 2: anybody else. I don't have a lot of them, but 108 00:06:02,497 --> 00:06:05,617 Speaker 2: I have like a couple. I don't know anybody who 109 00:06:05,697 --> 00:06:08,017 Speaker 2: is all in on Nicky Haley, and yet she's surging, 110 00:06:08,137 --> 00:06:11,297 Speaker 2: She's raising millions, the donor class likes her. What's what's 111 00:06:11,337 --> 00:06:13,457 Speaker 2: going on? Like, explain the Haley phenomenon. 112 00:06:14,977 --> 00:06:18,377 Speaker 1: Uh, Nikki Haley is one. There's a lot of people 113 00:06:19,017 --> 00:06:22,617 Speaker 1: in politics period who want a girl president, so that's 114 00:06:22,737 --> 00:06:26,057 Speaker 1: part of it. Secondly, she's extreme. I mean, Nikki Helly 115 00:06:26,097 --> 00:06:28,097 Speaker 1: is now a joke Neily. He's been around for in 116 00:06:28,217 --> 00:06:30,977 Speaker 1: politics for over twenty years, going back to when she 117 00:06:31,017 --> 00:06:34,577 Speaker 1: was in the state House. She's extremely well polished, and 118 00:06:34,857 --> 00:06:38,897 Speaker 1: she offers a lot of Republicans the alternative that they 119 00:06:39,017 --> 00:06:42,057 Speaker 1: want to hear, which is somebody who is more hawkish 120 00:06:42,177 --> 00:06:46,577 Speaker 1: on foreign policy, less culture war, less less about the 121 00:06:46,617 --> 00:06:50,617 Speaker 1: culture wars, a throwback to an older time in Republicans 122 00:06:50,617 --> 00:06:55,617 Speaker 1: and somebody with who seems respectable, and she a lot 123 00:06:55,657 --> 00:06:58,737 Speaker 1: of a lot of people vote for their candidate on vibes, 124 00:06:59,217 --> 00:07:02,017 Speaker 1: and she gives the vibe of a woman who's very strong. 125 00:07:02,537 --> 00:07:06,817 Speaker 1: She's a boss, and she is not going to disrespect 126 00:07:06,817 --> 00:07:09,817 Speaker 1: the office of the presidency. I have actually my very 127 00:07:09,897 --> 00:07:12,697 Speaker 1: very very very close friend from college. His mom is 128 00:07:12,737 --> 00:07:16,937 Speaker 1: a Nicki Haley supporter, and she absolutely hates Donald Trump 129 00:07:17,017 --> 00:07:19,937 Speaker 1: because Donald Trump she thought disrespect of the office of 130 00:07:19,977 --> 00:07:22,417 Speaker 1: the president and that is a big deal to her 131 00:07:22,777 --> 00:07:26,097 Speaker 1: and that's why she thinks that Nikki Hilly wouldn't do that. 132 00:07:26,177 --> 00:07:29,377 Speaker 1: So that's partially the group. And also she's not going 133 00:07:29,457 --> 00:07:32,857 Speaker 1: to make waves. Nikkiy Hilly is not going to like, 134 00:07:33,017 --> 00:07:36,057 Speaker 1: you know, change her immigration system immensely. She's not going 135 00:07:36,097 --> 00:07:39,017 Speaker 1: to change our trade policy imensely. She's going to be 136 00:07:40,057 --> 00:07:43,217 Speaker 1: you know, she'll probably appoint decent judges. And that's probably 137 00:07:43,217 --> 00:07:44,897 Speaker 1: all we're going to get out of her. That it's 138 00:07:44,897 --> 00:07:47,697 Speaker 1: going to be important other than try to declare war 139 00:07:47,817 --> 00:07:49,337 Speaker 1: with a round or anybody else. 140 00:07:49,737 --> 00:07:51,457 Speaker 2: All right. I mean, the good news is, you know, 141 00:07:51,697 --> 00:07:55,537 Speaker 2: if Nikki Haley gets elected, load up on that defense 142 00:07:55,617 --> 00:08:02,537 Speaker 2: contractor stock. I want to ask you about the Democrat 143 00:08:02,617 --> 00:08:04,497 Speaker 2: side of this equation. Here a second, but first up 144 00:08:04,537 --> 00:08:06,337 Speaker 2: from our sponsor, and you can tend to your cute 145 00:08:06,337 --> 00:08:10,617 Speaker 2: little fluffy flu multi pooh over there. She's very he 146 00:08:10,617 --> 00:08:14,657 Speaker 2: he sorry, very masculine, very cute. He's a rescue, so 147 00:08:14,697 --> 00:08:17,217 Speaker 2: he's tough. He's seen some stuff, man. 148 00:08:18,577 --> 00:08:19,617 Speaker 1: A lot of other talks. 149 00:08:20,017 --> 00:08:23,217 Speaker 2: You know. He's a he's a rescue. He'll he'll, he'll 150 00:08:23,257 --> 00:08:25,097 Speaker 2: cut a pooch, you know what I mean, he'll. 151 00:08:27,217 --> 00:08:27,657 Speaker 1: Anybody. 152 00:08:28,417 --> 00:08:30,737 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. All right, Look, this could not come 153 00:08:30,777 --> 00:08:33,617 Speaker 2: at a better time in our society. I'm speaking of 154 00:08:33,657 --> 00:08:36,177 Speaker 2: a new company with a new membership offer. It's from 155 00:08:36,257 --> 00:08:39,137 Speaker 2: a company called Patriot Defender. 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So, now Ryan, we have passed 172 00:09:32,697 --> 00:09:34,337 Speaker 2: you and I have been talking to this for many months, 173 00:09:34,377 --> 00:09:35,937 Speaker 2: and I appreciate you've been a voice of standing. Well, 174 00:09:35,937 --> 00:09:39,497 Speaker 2: everyone's like, you don't understand. They're gonna RFK Junior and 175 00:09:39,617 --> 00:09:43,057 Speaker 2: Newsome are gonna run a two day primary, and it 176 00:09:43,177 --> 00:09:45,657 Speaker 2: is all this crazy stuff. I've just it makes no sense, 177 00:09:45,737 --> 00:09:49,657 Speaker 2: right right, That's not happening now right, So now it's all, Oh, 178 00:09:49,697 --> 00:09:52,177 Speaker 2: they're gonna they're gonna change things out at the convention. 179 00:09:53,737 --> 00:09:53,937 Speaker 1: Yeah. 180 00:09:54,777 --> 00:09:59,217 Speaker 2: To me, abandoning a president and a vice president in 181 00:09:59,297 --> 00:10:03,417 Speaker 2: office for a convention floor fight is electoral suicide. Am 182 00:10:03,457 --> 00:10:05,977 Speaker 2: I missing something? Uh? 183 00:10:06,097 --> 00:10:10,097 Speaker 1: No, you're not. It's not going to happen. And for 184 00:10:10,177 --> 00:10:13,337 Speaker 1: some reason they believe they also this weird belief that 185 00:10:13,457 --> 00:10:15,657 Speaker 1: Republicans have because they're only listening to a lot of 186 00:10:15,657 --> 00:10:19,057 Speaker 1: Republican media, which is only talking about Gavin Newsom as 187 00:10:19,097 --> 00:10:22,777 Speaker 1: if Democrat. There's not a single other Democrat in the 188 00:10:22,857 --> 00:10:27,097 Speaker 1: country who wants to probably be president, and there's just 189 00:10:27,097 --> 00:10:31,137 Speaker 1: just Gavin Newsom as if he's ordained to be such 190 00:10:32,097 --> 00:10:34,177 Speaker 1: no a floor or fight would be a disaster, and 191 00:10:34,217 --> 00:10:38,697 Speaker 1: you would have literally half a dozen Democrats from very 192 00:10:38,697 --> 00:10:41,577 Speaker 1: big states that control most of the delegates all running 193 00:10:41,657 --> 00:10:44,617 Speaker 1: up against each other and fighting. And I mean, it's 194 00:10:44,657 --> 00:10:46,937 Speaker 1: this is so insane. It's not going to happen, Like 195 00:10:46,977 --> 00:10:49,657 Speaker 1: it's literally not going to happen. It hasn't ever happened. 196 00:10:49,697 --> 00:10:54,577 Speaker 1: It's not going to happen this time. Besides death or 197 00:10:54,617 --> 00:10:59,217 Speaker 1: a severe injury that is crippling. Joe Biden will be 198 00:10:59,457 --> 00:11:01,897 Speaker 1: the presidential nominee in twenty twenty four? 199 00:11:02,617 --> 00:11:04,937 Speaker 2: Is is he so that the people that I that 200 00:11:05,017 --> 00:11:09,457 Speaker 2: I talk to who think that it's not just going 201 00:11:09,497 --> 00:11:11,057 Speaker 2: to be like a walk in the park for Trump. 202 00:11:11,817 --> 00:11:15,417 Speaker 2: The primary thing that there's the there's the legal stuff 203 00:11:15,417 --> 00:11:17,857 Speaker 2: that they're doing, obviously, the prosecutions and the taking him 204 00:11:17,857 --> 00:11:20,777 Speaker 2: off the ballot, the taking him off the state ballot thing. No, 205 00:11:20,857 --> 00:11:23,217 Speaker 2: I don't think any serious person believes that that's actually 206 00:11:23,217 --> 00:11:25,657 Speaker 2: going to work in the end, but it's it's they 207 00:11:25,777 --> 00:11:27,937 Speaker 2: like the optics of it, even if it loses the 208 00:11:28,057 --> 00:11:30,097 Speaker 2: legal stuff. You know, who knows that's a little bit 209 00:11:30,097 --> 00:11:31,617 Speaker 2: of a more of a coin cost depending on what 210 00:11:31,697 --> 00:11:33,617 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court does in a few places, you know, 211 00:11:33,657 --> 00:11:37,857 Speaker 2: the prosecutions. But what I hear from people is, yeah, 212 00:11:37,897 --> 00:11:40,497 Speaker 2: the Democrats haven't opened up their campaign on Trump yet 213 00:11:40,537 --> 00:11:43,137 Speaker 2: and that's what will change the numbers. How much of 214 00:11:43,137 --> 00:11:45,737 Speaker 2: that do you buy versus how much of what we're 215 00:11:45,737 --> 00:11:49,017 Speaker 2: seeing right now is Joe Biden is bad at his 216 00:11:49,137 --> 00:11:52,217 Speaker 2: job and a lot of people are recognizing that maybe 217 00:11:52,217 --> 00:11:53,017 Speaker 2: who didn't before. 218 00:11:54,217 --> 00:11:58,137 Speaker 1: Well, Joe Biden is also has there's not a lot 219 00:11:58,177 --> 00:12:00,697 Speaker 1: of competency brings to it because he is he is 220 00:12:00,737 --> 00:12:03,057 Speaker 1: a man of a particular age who seems older than 221 00:12:03,097 --> 00:12:07,217 Speaker 1: he is, and that that gives a lot of people 222 00:12:07,337 --> 00:12:10,417 Speaker 1: pause in a lot of different demographics that he means. 223 00:12:11,017 --> 00:12:14,017 Speaker 1: What Joe Biden has going for him is the most 224 00:12:14,017 --> 00:12:16,897 Speaker 1: critical swing states in this country are still for as 225 00:12:16,937 --> 00:12:20,777 Speaker 1: divers donation as we've become, still about ninety percent black 226 00:12:20,817 --> 00:12:25,217 Speaker 1: white states, so Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Misty, Gain Wisconsin. 227 00:12:26,377 --> 00:12:29,537 Speaker 1: With the exception of Texas, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, these 228 00:12:29,537 --> 00:12:32,497 Speaker 1: are ninety percent black white states. Even New Hampshire, if 229 00:12:32,497 --> 00:12:33,977 Speaker 1: you want to throw it in there. Things got really 230 00:12:34,057 --> 00:12:38,697 Speaker 1: wild where trumps surge or is all coming from. Even 231 00:12:38,737 --> 00:12:41,057 Speaker 1: if you include the polling that has them strong with 232 00:12:41,097 --> 00:12:43,097 Speaker 1: black voters, which I don't know if I believe or not, 233 00:12:43,457 --> 00:12:48,297 Speaker 1: But if you include that polling, the numbers that he 234 00:12:48,337 --> 00:12:50,017 Speaker 1: has had in New York Times numbers, I think he 235 00:12:50,137 --> 00:12:53,257 Speaker 1: was down twenty one points with college educated whites, which 236 00:12:53,297 --> 00:12:56,137 Speaker 1: we put him on path for the worst performance with 237 00:12:56,177 --> 00:12:59,377 Speaker 1: college educated whites since Verry Goldwater in nineteen sixty four. 238 00:13:00,297 --> 00:13:03,057 Speaker 1: Is there a path if you lose that by that 239 00:13:03,297 --> 00:13:05,777 Speaker 1: much to make it up for it with non college 240 00:13:05,857 --> 00:13:11,097 Speaker 1: educated whites and minorities. Yes, there is technically, but I 241 00:13:11,257 --> 00:13:15,177 Speaker 1: don't have a ton of confidence in that. It's never 242 00:13:15,217 --> 00:13:16,977 Speaker 1: been done before. He's trying to have to build a 243 00:13:17,017 --> 00:13:19,937 Speaker 1: new coalition. You're building a new coalition with one hundred 244 00:13:19,977 --> 00:13:22,297 Speaker 1: percent name ideal already going in. No one's going to 245 00:13:22,417 --> 00:13:24,737 Speaker 1: learn anything on Donald Trump. I like they're learning on 246 00:13:24,817 --> 00:13:27,097 Speaker 1: Joe Biden. At this point, it's gonna be based on 247 00:13:28,137 --> 00:13:30,377 Speaker 1: who shows up, which is gonna be a high turnout 248 00:13:30,377 --> 00:13:35,577 Speaker 1: election because college is k Whites always turn out, and 249 00:13:35,777 --> 00:13:37,777 Speaker 1: the question of do young people turn out to black 250 00:13:37,817 --> 00:13:41,897 Speaker 1: people turn out. If black vote to Clea fines by 251 00:13:41,977 --> 00:13:45,857 Speaker 1: one percent from what it was in twenty twenty four, 252 00:13:46,457 --> 00:13:49,297 Speaker 1: donald Trump will probably be president. Just like if the 253 00:13:49,417 --> 00:13:52,217 Speaker 1: black vote mimics what it happens. Black vote declined by 254 00:13:52,297 --> 00:13:54,697 Speaker 1: one percent in twenty sixteen, which put Donald mac donald 255 00:13:54,737 --> 00:13:57,617 Speaker 1: Trump president. That one person declined would make him president. 256 00:13:57,697 --> 00:14:00,617 Speaker 1: But I don't know if it's overall going to happen. 257 00:14:00,817 --> 00:14:04,617 Speaker 1: You could. That's like the big, big question. What's also happening, 258 00:14:04,777 --> 00:14:06,577 Speaker 1: which is a mix I put this on my subset, 259 00:14:06,657 --> 00:14:10,057 Speaker 1: which is very very important. A lot of older Black vote, 260 00:14:10,257 --> 00:14:13,017 Speaker 1: which are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc. You know, 261 00:14:13,217 --> 00:14:14,777 Speaker 1: time has gone on, a lot of them have started 262 00:14:14,857 --> 00:14:18,057 Speaker 1: dying out, a lot of the new Silent generation group 263 00:14:18,137 --> 00:14:21,617 Speaker 1: within that demographic, and they're being replaced by younger Gen 264 00:14:21,737 --> 00:14:26,097 Speaker 1: Z black voters who are less ideologically aligned with the 265 00:14:26,137 --> 00:14:28,897 Speaker 1: Democratic Party and less partisan of the Democratic Party. So 266 00:14:29,577 --> 00:14:33,257 Speaker 1: the idea of Republicans getting twelve percent of the Black 267 00:14:33,337 --> 00:14:36,577 Speaker 1: vote elevens in the black vote are more likely now 268 00:14:36,577 --> 00:14:40,497 Speaker 1: than ever. But it's not because of any real partisan change. 269 00:14:40,497 --> 00:14:43,377 Speaker 1: It's mostly because of a demographic change of one generation 270 00:14:43,537 --> 00:14:45,137 Speaker 1: dying while though I'm being born. 271 00:14:45,857 --> 00:14:48,657 Speaker 2: So I promise, if you get this right, we will 272 00:14:48,697 --> 00:14:53,497 Speaker 2: revisit this in eleven months. But if you get it wrong, 273 00:14:53,537 --> 00:14:55,497 Speaker 2: we're going to pretend like it never happened. And you're 274 00:14:55,537 --> 00:14:59,017 Speaker 2: going to tell me after this sponsor read, You're going 275 00:14:59,057 --> 00:15:02,977 Speaker 2: to tell me right now, going with your gut, what 276 00:15:03,417 --> 00:15:07,017 Speaker 2: who's in the presidential election? What happens in the presidential election? 277 00:15:07,537 --> 00:15:10,377 Speaker 2: And why? So I'm you're calling a shot here in 278 00:15:10,417 --> 00:15:14,337 Speaker 2: the upper deck, way up there. And the good news 279 00:15:14,377 --> 00:15:17,217 Speaker 2: is people could listen to this and they'll say, you'll 280 00:15:17,217 --> 00:15:18,577 Speaker 2: think one thing or the other, but you can't be 281 00:15:18,617 --> 00:15:20,817 Speaker 2: wrong because it hasn't happened yet. And if you're right, Ryan, 282 00:15:20,857 --> 00:15:23,377 Speaker 2: I'm gonna mark this down. We're gonna blast us everywhere 283 00:15:23,417 --> 00:15:25,177 Speaker 2: after election day. And if you're wrong, no one's even 284 00:15:25,177 --> 00:15:27,737 Speaker 2: at our mother so sold wait, so so you think 285 00:15:27,777 --> 00:15:29,897 Speaker 2: about it while I while I speak to our sponsor 286 00:15:29,937 --> 00:15:32,617 Speaker 2: here for a second. The tunnel. The Towers Foundation does 287 00:15:32,657 --> 00:15:35,457 Speaker 2: amazing work. 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Thanks to the generosity of 295 00:15:55,017 --> 00:15:57,297 Speaker 2: friends like you, Tunnel to Towers paid off the mortgage 296 00:15:57,337 --> 00:16:00,897 Speaker 2: on his family's home, relieving a financial burden and bringing stability. 297 00:16:01,137 --> 00:16:04,057 Speaker 2: The foundation helps gold star and fallen firstusponder families, as 298 00:16:04,097 --> 00:16:07,097 Speaker 2: well as our nation's most severely injured heroes and homeless veterans. 299 00:16:07,457 --> 00:16:09,497 Speaker 2: Joined Tunnel the Towers on its mission to do good 300 00:16:10,057 --> 00:16:12,337 Speaker 2: because heroes are counting on you. Ninety five cents if 301 00:16:12,337 --> 00:16:14,977 Speaker 2: every dollar goes directly to its programs I donate every 302 00:16:14,977 --> 00:16:17,737 Speaker 2: month comes out automatically eleven dollars. So easy. It's not 303 00:16:17,777 --> 00:16:20,577 Speaker 2: a lot of money, but if everyone listening to this donated, 304 00:16:20,577 --> 00:16:23,457 Speaker 2: it would make a huge difference. Tunnel to Towers T 305 00:16:23,457 --> 00:16:25,817 Speaker 2: two t dot org. That's the website to go to 306 00:16:25,817 --> 00:16:30,697 Speaker 2: to donate t the number two T dot org. All right, Ryan, 307 00:16:31,377 --> 00:16:33,097 Speaker 2: I asked you to call your shot. I mean, this 308 00:16:33,217 --> 00:16:35,097 Speaker 2: is like hitting a home run that goes out of 309 00:16:35,137 --> 00:16:37,577 Speaker 2: the stadium and into the parking lots. It's eleven months out. 310 00:16:38,017 --> 00:16:41,377 Speaker 2: Who is in the general election? Who wins the general election? 311 00:16:41,537 --> 00:16:43,377 Speaker 2: And why do you think when all said and done, 312 00:16:43,377 --> 00:16:44,657 Speaker 2: they will have won the general election? 313 00:16:47,097 --> 00:16:50,537 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be Joe Biden Kamala Harris versus 314 00:16:50,617 --> 00:16:53,857 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And I mean I'm not picking his VP, 315 00:16:54,097 --> 00:16:58,257 Speaker 1: but it will probably be I think the top like 316 00:16:58,377 --> 00:17:01,697 Speaker 1: three contenders for VP would be like, I don't know, 317 00:17:01,857 --> 00:17:07,177 Speaker 1: JD Van's, Tim Scott and Christy Nome and then the 318 00:17:08,377 --> 00:17:13,137 Speaker 1: nominee will I probably would bet on Joe Biden winning 319 00:17:13,137 --> 00:17:17,617 Speaker 1: re election. By he'll probably win. He'll probably lose Arizona, 320 00:17:18,097 --> 00:17:21,217 Speaker 1: which he won the last time, and he'll lose Wisconsin, 321 00:17:21,217 --> 00:17:23,617 Speaker 1: which he won the last time. But the demographics of 322 00:17:23,657 --> 00:17:26,897 Speaker 1: Georgia are moving too progressively and there's not enough college 323 00:17:26,977 --> 00:17:30,457 Speaker 1: educata whites that would flip back to maybe win Georgia, 324 00:17:30,897 --> 00:17:34,217 Speaker 1: and the black vote is only increased Pennsylvania. The college 325 00:17:34,297 --> 00:17:37,497 Speaker 1: educata white vote is just gigantic, and it's getting bigger 326 00:17:37,537 --> 00:17:41,937 Speaker 1: while the rurals are emptying out and Michigan, I just 327 00:17:43,217 --> 00:17:45,377 Speaker 1: I think that the Michigan vote will be strong enough 328 00:17:45,377 --> 00:17:49,617 Speaker 1: for Biden to keep that state blue. Because the College 329 00:17:49,617 --> 00:17:51,777 Speaker 1: of Ka whites on the west coast don't hate Joe 330 00:17:51,777 --> 00:17:53,617 Speaker 1: Biden like the like the on the western side of 331 00:17:53,617 --> 00:17:55,937 Speaker 1: the state don't hate Joe Biden like they hate Hillary. It 332 00:17:55,977 --> 00:18:00,577 Speaker 1: will be very very very very tight. I think Trump 333 00:18:00,577 --> 00:18:07,697 Speaker 1: could probably flip Arizona and flip Wisconsin, but I don't 334 00:18:07,817 --> 00:18:10,497 Speaker 1: know if he can flip Michigan, pennsylvani you know, or 335 00:18:10,537 --> 00:18:14,777 Speaker 1: Georgia or Nevada. But as a right I mean literally, 336 00:18:14,857 --> 00:18:17,817 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a right now. I hate making predictions. 337 00:18:17,857 --> 00:18:19,857 Speaker 1: I don't know even just agree to this, but that's 338 00:18:19,897 --> 00:18:21,377 Speaker 1: what I would say as of right now. 339 00:18:21,457 --> 00:18:23,337 Speaker 2: Well, the good news, like I said, if you nail 340 00:18:23,377 --> 00:18:24,737 Speaker 2: any of this, by the way, you can just cut 341 00:18:24,737 --> 00:18:26,417 Speaker 2: it too. So we just get you all the parts 342 00:18:26,417 --> 00:18:28,297 Speaker 2: that you're right, so you're we can be shameless here. 343 00:18:28,417 --> 00:18:30,977 Speaker 2: Editorial freedom literally editorial free. 344 00:18:31,937 --> 00:18:34,457 Speaker 1: Anything could happen. But like this is what I'm looking 345 00:18:34,457 --> 00:18:36,657 Speaker 1: at right now is do the college educated white boats 346 00:18:36,657 --> 00:18:39,297 Speaker 1: and now the non college to show up and and 347 00:18:39,417 --> 00:18:42,177 Speaker 1: do minorities not show up. Those are the big three questions. 348 00:18:42,257 --> 00:18:45,337 Speaker 1: And because I think that most people's minds are set 349 00:18:46,577 --> 00:18:49,337 Speaker 1: and that's, uh, that's kind of where. 350 00:18:49,217 --> 00:18:51,377 Speaker 2: People are, right. Do Republicans take the Senate? 351 00:18:52,497 --> 00:18:55,537 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they went on Tanna back. I think 352 00:18:55,577 --> 00:18:59,657 Speaker 1: they went West Virginia. I don't know about Ohio. Shared 353 00:18:59,697 --> 00:19:03,817 Speaker 1: Brown's a tough soob Michigan who knows. And I don't 354 00:19:03,817 --> 00:19:05,417 Speaker 1: think they're going at Arizona. 355 00:19:05,537 --> 00:19:10,297 Speaker 2: Do you think, uh, billionaire guy in Pennsylvan and you 356 00:19:11,257 --> 00:19:14,257 Speaker 2: know I'm talking about David mccorm you think he can win? 357 00:19:15,217 --> 00:19:20,617 Speaker 2: No chance? Wow, not a chance. Ryan swinging the bat 358 00:19:21,137 --> 00:19:25,897 Speaker 2: not fearless, fearless swinging at these pitches. Jesus. All right man, 359 00:19:25,937 --> 00:19:28,337 Speaker 2: I mean, look, you everyone got to hear it. I 360 00:19:28,377 --> 00:19:30,577 Speaker 2: know our pro Trump audience right over there, they've already 361 00:19:30,617 --> 00:19:33,777 Speaker 2: to They've already like clicked off this. It's okay. 362 00:19:34,777 --> 00:19:37,097 Speaker 1: I hope I mean listen, Royce, is Biden or Trump? 363 00:19:37,137 --> 00:19:39,297 Speaker 1: I would hope for Trump, But like at the same 364 00:19:39,337 --> 00:19:41,897 Speaker 1: time time, I'm looking at the numbers. I don't know. 365 00:19:43,137 --> 00:19:46,417 Speaker 1: I don't know if the growth with hispans nations. And 366 00:19:46,457 --> 00:19:49,297 Speaker 1: the question is can Trump close the gap? And you know, 367 00:19:49,337 --> 00:19:51,537 Speaker 1: can he win you know, can he close an Orange 368 00:19:51,577 --> 00:19:56,337 Speaker 1: County Florida? Yeah? Can he get ten points higher in California? Maybe, 369 00:19:56,377 --> 00:19:58,337 Speaker 1: like he can do all those things. But if you 370 00:19:58,377 --> 00:20:01,057 Speaker 1: look at where the states are that matter, you know, 371 00:20:01,297 --> 00:20:05,697 Speaker 1: the RUSS the white white non college educator vote is smaller. 372 00:20:05,697 --> 00:20:08,297 Speaker 2: And do you think do you do you think the 373 00:20:08,457 --> 00:20:11,697 Speaker 2: the idea that Demo crats are panicked about Joe Biden 374 00:20:11,777 --> 00:20:13,777 Speaker 2: is overstated? You think you think they actually. 375 00:20:16,177 --> 00:20:17,977 Speaker 1: I know quite a few have said we're going to 376 00:20:18,017 --> 00:20:20,577 Speaker 1: give up, like nothing, they're going to give up, but 377 00:20:20,737 --> 00:20:24,137 Speaker 1: they have come they've already rested on the idea that 378 00:20:24,417 --> 00:20:27,097 Speaker 1: Democrats they believe. A few people that I know who 379 00:20:27,097 --> 00:20:30,617 Speaker 1: are really smart, said, you know, we're going to win 380 00:20:30,657 --> 00:20:32,777 Speaker 1: the House. The Democrats will win the House back, they'll 381 00:20:32,817 --> 00:20:35,537 Speaker 1: lose the Senate, and they'll lose the presidency. And they're 382 00:20:35,657 --> 00:20:37,257 Speaker 1: just going to come to the conclusion that they're going 383 00:20:37,297 --> 00:20:39,857 Speaker 1: to lose the presidency now to deal with it. So 384 00:20:39,937 --> 00:20:42,097 Speaker 1: if they do win it, it's a big win and 385 00:20:42,097 --> 00:20:44,337 Speaker 1: they're very very happy about it, but they do believe 386 00:20:44,377 --> 00:20:45,977 Speaker 1: that they're going to lose as it right now because 387 00:20:46,017 --> 00:20:49,337 Speaker 1: Joe Biden. But I don't know any other Democratic that 388 00:20:49,497 --> 00:20:53,577 Speaker 1: put together the coalition needed for the Democratic Party. Remember 389 00:20:54,337 --> 00:20:56,977 Speaker 1: one in for sorry go ahead. 390 00:20:56,737 --> 00:20:58,177 Speaker 2: No you go, you go ahead because I have a 391 00:20:58,177 --> 00:20:59,897 Speaker 2: common question for you. But one in. 392 00:20:59,977 --> 00:21:03,817 Speaker 1: Four Biden voters are voter are white people without a 393 00:21:03,857 --> 00:21:07,417 Speaker 1: college degree. They should be Republicans by this point, but 394 00:21:07,457 --> 00:21:09,417 Speaker 1: they are still not because of a certain a few 395 00:21:09,457 --> 00:21:13,457 Speaker 1: issues that keep them within the Democratic line. Sixty one 396 00:21:13,537 --> 00:21:18,497 Speaker 1: percent of all Democrats are white voters. The number of 397 00:21:18,777 --> 00:21:21,337 Speaker 1: noncollecated whites is going to go down. But all Biden 398 00:21:21,417 --> 00:21:24,377 Speaker 1: has done, all the Democratic Party has done is sit 399 00:21:24,417 --> 00:21:27,217 Speaker 1: there and tell white voters, we don't want to hear 400 00:21:27,257 --> 00:21:29,257 Speaker 1: from you. Is why we're not doing Iowa caucus, we're 401 00:21:29,257 --> 00:21:31,097 Speaker 1: not doing the New Hampshire primary. We don't want to 402 00:21:31,097 --> 00:21:36,417 Speaker 1: hear from white voters. Biden try to give my black 403 00:21:36,457 --> 00:21:40,817 Speaker 1: minority minority farmers bailout. He wouldn't do the same thing 404 00:21:40,817 --> 00:21:44,737 Speaker 1: for white farmers. There when when the fifth when thirteen 405 00:21:44,857 --> 00:21:49,577 Speaker 1: Republican attorney generals said to corporations, you can't hire based 406 00:21:49,577 --> 00:21:51,577 Speaker 1: on race anymore. You have to hire based on their 407 00:21:51,897 --> 00:21:54,417 Speaker 1: twenty one Democratic attorneys also know it's great if you 408 00:21:54,537 --> 00:21:57,137 Speaker 1: if you try to have a diverse feel by by 409 00:21:57,177 --> 00:22:00,577 Speaker 1: not hiring white people, all of these things. This is 410 00:22:00,617 --> 00:22:02,417 Speaker 1: going to come to a head. And at the same 411 00:22:02,457 --> 00:22:05,057 Speaker 1: exact time, you have the inflation issue, and you have 412 00:22:05,137 --> 00:22:08,577 Speaker 1: the job issue, and you have the border issue. Joe 413 00:22:08,577 --> 00:22:12,017 Speaker 1: Biden for everything that people feel like, Joe Biden is 414 00:22:12,057 --> 00:22:15,257 Speaker 1: not a hateful person the way that people hate AOC 415 00:22:15,497 --> 00:22:19,417 Speaker 1: or they fear Hillary Clinton presidency or whatever. I don't 416 00:22:19,457 --> 00:22:24,177 Speaker 1: know anyone who could build this coalition together because most 417 00:22:24,177 --> 00:22:27,297 Speaker 1: of the upcoming Democrats are going to be full blown 418 00:22:27,737 --> 00:22:33,337 Speaker 1: Jesse Jackson, It's our time Rainbow coalition, NonStop. Just they 419 00:22:33,337 --> 00:22:35,177 Speaker 1: will be like Harry Lake, like, do you not vote 420 00:22:35,177 --> 00:22:37,297 Speaker 1: for me? If you're a McCain supporter, do not vote 421 00:22:37,297 --> 00:22:39,457 Speaker 1: for me, if you're a white person at a college degree, 422 00:22:39,697 --> 00:22:42,857 Speaker 1: and they are going to excise millions of people the 423 00:22:42,897 --> 00:22:45,377 Speaker 1: Democrats need. I don't know if anyone else on the 424 00:22:45,457 --> 00:22:47,937 Speaker 1: scene right now will be able to put that together. 425 00:22:48,857 --> 00:22:50,657 Speaker 2: If Kamala had to actually be at the top of 426 00:22:50,697 --> 00:22:53,457 Speaker 2: the ticket against Trump, does she lose straight up? I 427 00:22:53,497 --> 00:22:54,617 Speaker 2: mean you think it just doesn't happen. 428 00:22:56,377 --> 00:22:58,977 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no one. I mean, listen, I'm gonna it's 429 00:22:59,057 --> 00:23:01,737 Speaker 1: very unpopular. Most people don't want a woman president. 430 00:23:02,737 --> 00:23:03,417 Speaker 2: They just don't. 431 00:23:03,537 --> 00:23:05,857 Speaker 1: They don't want a woman president. They don't want they 432 00:23:05,897 --> 00:23:09,177 Speaker 1: don't when female politicians have to walk a very tight 433 00:23:09,297 --> 00:23:12,977 Speaker 1: high wire because they come they try to constantly come 434 00:23:13,017 --> 00:23:17,177 Speaker 1: off stronger than they are, so they come off extremely unappealing. 435 00:23:17,177 --> 00:23:19,897 Speaker 1: And this is a problem with female politicians almost always 436 00:23:19,897 --> 00:23:26,297 Speaker 1: across the board. And Kamala is extraordinarily unlikable. She's just 437 00:23:26,337 --> 00:23:28,817 Speaker 1: extraordinarily unlikable. And I don't know if she has a 438 00:23:28,897 --> 00:23:33,217 Speaker 1: natural constituency anywhere. Yeah, so I don't think she can 439 00:23:33,337 --> 00:23:35,737 Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think most Democrats can win 440 00:23:36,577 --> 00:23:37,257 Speaker 1: if they run. 441 00:23:37,697 --> 00:23:41,217 Speaker 2: So we have Ryan making huge predictions for the election 442 00:23:41,337 --> 00:23:43,497 Speaker 2: that is eleven months away. And I will mark this, Dad, 443 00:23:43,577 --> 00:23:45,937 Speaker 2: I will remember this. I like that we got you 444 00:23:46,017 --> 00:23:48,017 Speaker 2: to swing the bat. You know you didn't You didn't say, oh, 445 00:23:48,057 --> 00:23:50,097 Speaker 2: I can't. You know. I appreciate you swung the bat. 446 00:23:50,297 --> 00:23:52,217 Speaker 1: And I mean, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, it doesn't 447 00:23:52,217 --> 00:23:53,897 Speaker 1: really matter, like whatever. 448 00:23:53,617 --> 00:23:56,137 Speaker 2: I don't care Bryan or Dusky. Everybody subscribe to the 449 00:23:56,177 --> 00:24:00,217 Speaker 2: National Populace newsletter on substack and he will be bringing 450 00:24:00,217 --> 00:24:02,577 Speaker 2: you all these insights and you can also probably email 451 00:24:02,617 --> 00:24:05,017 Speaker 2: him and yell at him there for not being sufficiently 452 00:24:05,057 --> 00:24:10,377 Speaker 2: supportive of Donald Trump as the nomad. Anyway, Brian, thank 453 00:24:10,457 --> 00:24:12,737 Speaker 2: you very much. Thanks for having out. I appreciate it.