WEBVTT - Redistricting, Hantavirus, and SE’s silver linings playbook 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:06.720 Welcome to off the cup with me, se Cup. How 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:10.240 is it going. I'm in the Northeast, and I'll tell 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:12.799 you it feels like the weather is just against us. 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.080 We get like a minute of sunshine and spring, and 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:20.400 then it's rainy and freezing again. Can we just fully 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:24.400 move into warm already? It's May, School's almost doubt. I'm 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.200 in sweaters and rain boots. I haven't been truly warm 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.920 since last fall. I'm just over it. Let's lock in, 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:35.720 lock into warm weather. It's not great for my mood. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.120 How have you been feeling. I know we're doing more 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:41.599 politics here, but I'm also I'm checking in on your 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.440 mental health. There's a lot of shit happening in the 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:46.400 world and in the news, and I get it if 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:50.240 you're feeling overwhelmed. I think between the news and the weather, 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.680 it's pretty bleak out there. But I do hope to 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.720 have some good news for you today on a few fronts. 0:00:57.720 --> 0:00:59.840 On politics, I'm going to give you what I think 0:00:59.880 --> 0:01:03.520 is some good news, and on health, I think I 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.120 may have some good news. On the other hand, we 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.600 learned this week the President Trump is not thinking about 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:12.440 you at all, not not even a little bit. Trump 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.039 was asked about the Iran war, which is entering it's 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:19.680 eleventh week, and whether the economic pain it's caused Americans 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:24.240 is part of his thinking as he enters negotiations. Take 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:26.480 a listen. It's a little hard to hear he's standing 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.800 in front of a helicopter when you're invocating with Iran 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:30.520 that your president. 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:35.160 What extent are American financial textmation motivating you? The NATU up, 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:36.759 not even a little bit. 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.959 The only thing that matters is we're I'm talking about Iran. 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:42.880 They can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.119 American financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:50.600 about one thing. You could not let Iran have a 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:53.160 no clear weapon. That's all I mean. There it is. 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.640 It's in black and white. It's crystal clear. Your economic 0:01:55.680 --> 0:02:00.160 pain is not part of his calculus at all. Now, 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.320 that's either a very bold thing to say in an 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.280 election year or a pretty stupid thing to say an 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:10.520 election year. I'll let you decide. But one thing it 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:14.600 isn't is surprising. Trump wasn't thinking about you or me 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.640 when he decided to go to war with Iran. He 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.920 was thinking about himself. What can distract everyone from the 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:24.560 Epstein files and this terrible economy I've created thanks to 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:28.280 my dumb tariffs. I know I'll start a war. I 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.000 promised I wouldn't, and that's how I got elected. But 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:35.800 who cares. It's what's best for me. I think the 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:37.720 greatest trick that Trump's managed to pull off is the 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:39.839 one where he convinced millions of Americans that he cares 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:44.400 about them. He's never cared about them. He didn't care 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:47.919 about regular people when he was building casinos and underpaying 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:51.880 his employees. He didn't care about regular people when he 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:55.280 was charging exorbitant amounts of money for Trump University courses 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:59.560 that were fraudulent. He didn't care about his own voters 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.480 when he told them the twenty twenty election was rigged 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:05.560 and stolen, inciting thousands of them to go commit crimes 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:08.959 at the Capitol. He didn't care about them when he 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.480 took millions of their hard earned dollars to help quote 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:14.760 stop the steal, and instead use their money to pay 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:19.840 his lawyers in Millennia's stylists. He didn't care about America 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:22.760 when he incited an insurrection against it. He doesn't care 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:27.640 about anyone but himself. We've known that for decades. This 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:33.000 isn't new information, and yet people seem surprised and indignant 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.240 that he's not like more worried about your gas prices. 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:40.600 He doesn't give a shit about your gas prices. But 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:42.600 if you go and listen to like Joe Rogan or 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.920 some of these MAGA influencers that were once you know, 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:51.720 wholly unquestioning of Trump, they're like shocked, what is he doing? 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:57.080 Why doesn't he care? He's never cared? What are you 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:58.600 talking about? What do you mean? 0:03:59.120 --> 0:03:59.200 Like? 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.200 Trump was never here to make America great again? So 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.360 if this war screws us, he doesn't care. If tariffs 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:10.840 screw us, he doesn't care. He's off spending billions in 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:14.400 taxpayer dollars on ballrooms and reflecting pools and vanity projects 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:16.880 to put his name on stuff. Of course, he's not 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:21.400 thinking about your finances or my finances, of course not 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.680 No what else He's not thinking about midterms? That's obvious 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:31.200 because no president or party leader who cared about the 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.120 outcome of an election would be saying and doing the 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:37.960 things that he's saying and doing. And Republicans know he 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.960 doesn't care about the midterms, which is why they have 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:45.640 to rig them with these redistricting orgies. Think about it 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:51.320 this way. If Republicans, and I'm talking about elected lawmakers, 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:55.400 if the GOP believed that Trump cared about the midterms, 0:04:56.600 --> 0:05:00.599 wouldn't they be super confident that they could win them. 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:05.960 If Republicans believed Americans liked their ideas, liked Trump's agenda, 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.159 wanted to give them all two more years, they wouldn't 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:14.640 need to redraw the maps to suppress Democratic votes. They 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:17.040 know they can't win on their ideas. They know that 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:20.679 Trump is tanking them back home and he's not gonna stop, 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:25.279 so they have to cheat. And here's where we get 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:29.560 to our first bit of good news, because I've been 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:31.680 talking to a lot of Democrats who are really down 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.680 in the dumps about these redistricting wars, and I understand it. 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.880 They were feeling really good about the midterms and then 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.359 Republicans won a bunch of redistricting battles and Dems lost 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.680 a few in Virginia at the Supreme Court, in those 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:51.400 Indiana state primaries. So the mood among Dems is down. 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.400 It's bad. They were thinking, God, we're going to win 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.640 the House back, maybe even the Senate, and now they're 0:05:56.640 --> 0:06:03.240 worried Republicans could keep both scary and unimaginable but a possibility. 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:06.440 But I have what I think is a silver lining, 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:08.360 and I don't hear a lot of people talking about it. 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:12.679 So let's talk about it, and let me just get 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:13.839 this out of the way, and let me say it 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.040 from the beginning in case I have to, but I 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:21.240 shouldn't have to. I hate these redistricting pissing contests. They're undemocratic, 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.600 they hurt every voter. I don't like Republicans doing them. 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.000 I don't like Democrats joining them to do them. We 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.120 are supposed to choose our candidates. We the voters, get 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:32.560 to choose our candidates. This is candidates choosing their voters. 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:35.400 It's not how it's supposed to work. And I hope 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:40.760 someone runs in twenty six or twenty eight unending jerry 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:46.920 mandering period. But all that said, there is a world 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:51.240 in which the rights over zealous consolidation of power here 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:56.760 through redistricting actually helps Democrats. There is a world in 0:06:56.800 --> 0:07:03.080 which Democrats, I believe, actually needed this fight. Hear me out. 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:06.400 Let me take you back to two thousand and eight. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.280 Barack Obama won the presidency in two thousand and eight 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.000 with ninety five percent of the black vote that year. 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:17.560 It was a new zenith, It was a new high. 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.080 But that number has dropped precipitously over the next few 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:25.960 cycles that followed. In twenty twenty four, Kamala Harris won 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.360 just eighty three percent of the Black vote. That was 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.720 down from Joe Biden's eighty seven percent in twenty twenty, 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:37.120 so a swing of more than ten percentage points from 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:41.680 two thousand and eight to twenty twenty four. Okay, more 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:44.960 than ten percent of the Black vote either stayed home 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.600 or left the Democratic Party for the Republican Party. We 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:50.920 know that Trump's picked up some of those black voters, 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.920 but we also know many just stayed home. They were 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.720 disillusioned with the Democratic Party. They were telling us. They 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.440 were saying that a party had taken and then for 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.200 granted and was no longer like showing up for them. 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:05.480 That's how they felt. You remember all the talk in 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:09.600 twenty twenty four around the Democratic coalition kind of dismantling 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:14.680 a bit. Now, I assume that's worrying for Democrats, but 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:17.600 I don't know for sure, because they decided not to 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:22.440 release their autopsy for some insane reason. I also assume 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:26.040 they have a plan to recapture those disaffected black voters 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:28.960 that they lost in twenty twenty four, but again, who 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:32.320 knows what that plan might be since they won't share 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:37.040 the autopsy. Again, the dumbest idea I've ever heard, but 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:41.800 I think the redistricting worst can help. Republicans have been 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:47.400 targeting these very voters, carving up predominantly black majority districts 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.280 all over the country, especially in the South. This attempt, 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:54.640 I think to further disenfranchise black voters by Republicans could 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.199 end up motivating them to turn out for the twenty 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.800 twenty six midterms in ways they might not have planned to. 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:04.680 After all, remember, polling was showing Democrats were poised to 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:09.880 crush Republicans in the midterms before the redistricting, Democrats were 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:14.400 going to kill it. So, if you're a disaffected Democrat 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:19.320 who maybe stayed home for the presidential who's one of 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:24.200 the folks giving very low approval numbers to Democrats right now, 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:26.680 are you really running out to vote in the midterms 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:28.400 if you think that the party is a lock on 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.640 taking the House, maybe you don't feel like you have to. 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.880 But now that Democrats are back against the wall and 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:40.000 the very voters it lost in twenty twenty four are 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:45.240 the same voters being targeted by Republicans. Well, this feels 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:50.760 like a very important turnout driver to me. One Democratic 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.840 strategist put it this way to Politico. He said, Democrats 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:55.400 are going to be able to go into African American 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:58.280 communities and say Republicans are doing everything they can to 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:02.559 take away your political power. And that's a really salient message. 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:08.520 He says, Yeah, it is. And Democrats I keep saying 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:12.400 this midterm election is not going to be I don't 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:16.520 think either party is trying for or should try to 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:19.839 capture independence. I think both parties need to turn out 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:23.160 their bases for this midterm election. They need to double 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:26.480 triple down on their base voters, get every single one 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:32.880 of them out to end up winning. And Democrats especially 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.960 need Black voters to turn out because that's part of 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:38.520 the base that they need to count on. And turnout 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.880 among Black voters in the last midterms dropped by ten 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:46.640 percentage points from fifty one point seven percent turnout twenty 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:50.000 eighteen to forty two percent turnout in twenty twenty two, 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.280 and in that same period, white turnout drop just one 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:57.240 point five points. So it's not symmetrical. The gap. In 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:01.560 twenty twenty two, the racial gap between black voters and 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.080 white voters in terms of turnout. That gap was the 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:08.440 largest in any election, presidential or midterms since two thousand. 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:13.520 So Democrats have a problem with their black voter base. 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.480 They need it to show up. It has been precipitously 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:22.520 showing up less. Okay, And the last two examples, the 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.920 presidential in twenty four and the midterms in twenty twenty two, 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:29.880 were really really bad for the Black vote and the 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:33.560 Democratic Party really bad. And I hate to tell you 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.800 there's more sort of bad news in this. Democrats simply 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:39.800 don't have a transformational figure like an Obama or a 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:43.520 Bill Clinton waiting in the wings to rebuild the black coalition. 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.080 They just don't Who is that candidate? You can't name it. 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:49.480 I can't name it. So if they don't have the messenger, 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:52.200 and they don't have the message, as far as I 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:53.880 can tell, I'm not sure what their message is to 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.280 win back black voters. I haven't heard it. They got 0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.360 to go with what they do have, and what they 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:05.920 have right now is a crisis. Redistricting is an existential crisis, 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:11.960 and it's aimed at suppressing the black vote. Democrats should 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.440 harness this moment turn it against Republicans so that Democrats 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:19.520 and black voters in particular turn out in record numbers 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.560 in November to make all the millions that Republicans have 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.480 spent on rigging these elections moot completely moot, because you 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.440 can't override the will of the people. But that will 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.480 has to be there. Democrats have to make the case 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:39.160 that Americans are fighting for representation, fairness, democracy, and they're 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.120 voting against the party that wants to take all of 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:45.280 that away, and a party, by the way, that doesn't 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:49.280 care about your economic pain, not even a little. I 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.160 think that could actually boost Democrats in a way they 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.400 didn't have. They didn't have that way. They didn't have 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.480 a way to win back the voters they lost. They 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.640 were just hoping that Trump would be bad enough. That 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.000 didn't work. In twenty twenty four, he wasn't bad enough 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.160 that every Democratic Coalition voter turned out and voted for 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:12.640 Kamala Harris. That didn't work. So let's try something different. 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:17.760 Let's try motivating voters to go out and vote for something, 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:22.880 not just against something. What do you think does that 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:27.600 sound like a plausible thing? That could happen. Does that 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:33.240 sound like the juice the Dems need right now? I 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.320 do want to know what you're thinking about all of this. 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.080 Write us it off the cup, Cup with two piece 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:38.679 at gmail dot com. Tell me if you like this 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.839 idea or not? And what you think Democrats should do 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:46.360 about redistricting because they've tried tried doing it themselves, not 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.600 completely successfully. What do they do? What do you think? 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.640 What do you think should happen? All right, when we 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.400 come back, I'm going to try to bring you some 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.440 more silver linings, this time on the health front. Stay tuned, 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:12.679 Welcome back to Off the Cup. I know that in 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.360 addition to politics, there's some other scary news out there 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.480 that you're probably worried about. I am too. It's the 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.960 hand of virus. Honestly, for me, this is just another 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:25.280 reason to never go on a cruise. I'm sorry. Between 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:29.120 Hanta and poop cruise, do we really need to be 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.400 doing these? I get it, it's self contained, it's all inclusive, 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:34.560 it's one stop shop for family fund. But it's also 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:40.560 a living nightmare when anything goes wrong, so count me out. 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.560 But anyway, more than half a dozen US states are 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.800 monitoring individuals who have either been exposed to or are 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:49.640 exhibiting symptoms of hand virus as a result of exposure 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:54.280 on that MVY Hondias ship. The majority of American passengers 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.440 are now quarantining in Nebraska. Two were sent to Atlanta 0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:01.800 for further assessment. Hantavirus is usually transmitted to people through 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:06.320 contact with rodents, urine, feces, or saliva. So what does 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.520 it mean for you? Well, I'm excited to welcome my friend, 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:13.360 doctor Jeremy Faust. He is editor in chief of MedPage Today. 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:17.280 He's an emergency physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital. He's 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:19.760 also an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School in the 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.720 Division of Health Policy and Public Health. Welcome to Off 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:23.800 the Cop doctor Faust. 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:24.560 Good to see you. 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:26.560 Okay, So I want to ask you about this and 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:30.080 some other things, because it's not every day we've got 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:33.280 one of the greatest doctors in the country on Off 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.400 the Cop. No, you are, It's cool. So let's talk 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:39.280 about hannavirus. People are very worried. Should they be or 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:40.440 are they overreacting? 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.600 I think we should be concerned about the people who 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.880 are on that ship. We should be concerned about people 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.160 who've come into contact with people who are on that ship, 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:52.480 and we should be thinking about what qualifies as a 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.360 contact because I think this is a moment when the 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.800 dogma begins to get questioned. Right, we went through this 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.920 with COVID say oh, it's not airborne. Oops, it's going 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:05.120 through the air And so I don't think that that's unexpected. 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.080 I think that that's just what happens when we get 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.920 enough cases, that outlier events can happen, and that we 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:15.440 learn more. So my major concern is for anyone in 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.160 a high risk exposure, And then the next level is 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:23.120 do we need to modify what we consider to be 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.560 a high risk exposure and who are those people? 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.480 So if you weren't on the cruise, if you weren't 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:32.480 in contact with one of the people on the cruise, 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:37.120 but you live in a state or a city where 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:42.600 those passengers are quarantining or being assessed, should you worry 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:42.840 at all? 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.800 Or no? I'm not changing my behavior in those situations. 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.080 I'm not advising people who live in California, my relatives 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:52.160 that they need to change their behavior. But I think 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.320 that this is one of those things where we want 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.800 to be we want to be helpful So when people 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:01.800 say should I be worried? If I say no and 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.240 ten people die, they're going to say you told me 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:05.000 not to worry. 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:05.520 What's wrong with you? 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:10.040 And if I say, hey, you should worry and then 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:13.600 only ten people die, they say, oh, you were just overreacting. 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:15.840 So I think what's on people's minds is the question 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:18.359 you asked Essie, which is like, what should we do 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:20.720 with our behaviors? And to me, like the average person 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.119 doesn't need to change anything. What needs to change I 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:26.480 think is a little bit more of a serious assessment 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.119 of who the contacts are and what they ought to do. 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:35.520 Okay, good, I've been reading right. It's hard to spread 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:39.000 to humans actually, And there was an outbreak of the 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:43.719 Andy's strain in Argentina in twenty eighteen. If this originates 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:47.080 in Argentina and they know that, why hasn't it been 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.879 more destructive in Argentina? Like, explain that science to me. 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:55.159 These viruses that have a natural reservoir in animals like rodents, 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:58.359 they jump when they have an opportunity. It happens sporadically, 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:00.920 and then the question is is that a dead end 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.560 or not? And that can be for different reasons. That 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.600 could be the person who happened to be infected just 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.000 didn't shed a lot of virus. It could be that 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.119 the person who got infected really didn't feel well so 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.119 they didn't infect anyone else. They just like didn't go 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.560 out the house, yep. Or it can just be a 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.119 random thing like they infected one or two people, but 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:24.359 then those people also infected zero one and it died out. 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:28.440 But if once in a while it infects somebody who 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.600 right when they're shedding a lot of virus, happens to 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:35.200 be in a crowded place, and that's why an outrek 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.960 can occur. But like it doesn't happen all. 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.720 The time, necessarily have to write okay, And then for 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:45.159 people wondering, like with all the flashbacks and PTSD from COVID, 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:47.760 how is this like COVID, how is it not like COVID. 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:51.240 Well, I think the biggest difference that we know right 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.919 now is that the amount of time it takes for 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.159 each case, because that's such a big difference. When you 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:01.560 have a virus that is spreading from you to me 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:06.919 like five days apart, then if it's doubling every five days, 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.760 it's two, four, eight, sixteen thirty two one twenties. You know, 0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:15.840 sixty four one twenty eight thousands millions. Okay, if it's 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.399 every twenty days, sure that can happen, but you have 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.480 much more time to track everything down and have awareness 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.280 and so to me, and this was the big problem 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:27.760 with the New York Times up ed by Xana Tafechi 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.200 about this, where she said, you know, these these two 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:34.120 pathogens might have similar reproduction numbers, that is, the number 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:38.119 of people that they infect. First of all, that's not correct. 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:40.280 I think that COVID has a much higher reproduction number. 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:45.000 But even if they were, the difference is really baked 0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:48.320 into that interval of like how long it takes for 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.080 each generation to occur, because that gives us an actual 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:52.600 chance to stop this. 0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:57.119 Thing, right, And if it's a faster period, you just 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:57.800 can't catch it. 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:02.639 Yeah, And there are examples of when slow doesn't necessarily 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:07.359 mean good. Like generally it's the case when something moves slowly, 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:09.200 we think, oh, that's a good thing. I don't want 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:12.119 to like, I don't want to dance in the end zone. 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.800 Because there are times when things that move slowly ultimately 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.359 cause a long problem like HIV. Right, you can have 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:23.880 a very slowly developing problem, and the dynamics matter, which 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:26.320 is like how much spread is happening when people are 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:29.520 feeling well enough to go spread it? Yeah, So in general, 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:31.560 it's not exactly just. 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:33.919 The slow so they know they have it correct. 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.320 So it's not just the slowness. It's not just the 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:40.199 symptomatic nature of it. It's all these combinations of biological 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:44.600 and behavioral things that make it so that in the 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:48.439 past outbreaks like this, you know, this just haven't happened. 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:52.200 Yeah, okay, okay, that's good. I think a question that 0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:53.840 a lot of people have as well, and this is 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.520 an unfortunate one, But it's about the political environment in 0:20:56.560 --> 0:21:02.040 which this is happening. So is this administration which left 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:06.439 who in January? Is this HHS Secretary RFK Junior? Is 0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:09.880 this CDC? Are they going to be able to manage 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.360 this well? Is this? Are we in good hands? Tell 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:13.479 people what you think about that. 0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:20.000 They are getting lucky right now. And if this were 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:24.119 a different pathogen, we would be hosed. And what I 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:26.640 will just say is, I'll just give you a quick 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:30.159 indicator of this. There are a bunch of Americans who 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:32.359 are now back. They are people who had what we 0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:36.280 consider to be higher risk exposures. This government is afraid 0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:38.880 to tell them to quarantine. They will not say the qword. 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:42.240 They're saying, if you're a higher risk, we would like 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:44.240 you to do this, stay home. 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.119 And that's for politics. 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:51.360 I think it's because they are preternaturally determined to never 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.960 have another COVID happen, because what they think of COVID 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.199 is not that millions of people died. They think of 0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:00.879 COVID as we had to stay home. That's the injury 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:02.960 to them and the kids. You know, the kids miss school, 0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:04.560 which is true that happened, and we could have opened 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:09.280 school a lot earlier. But they're so their value system 0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.800 is not about saving lives per se. It's about avoiding 0:22:12.800 --> 0:22:15.919 a shutdown. And so if they just I'm looking at 0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:18.639 the document that they put out and it's like, and 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.280 I'm going to write this in my newsletter on inside Medicine. Okay, 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:26.520 they they're like, it starts with Q and rhymes with quarantine. 0:22:26.920 --> 0:22:29.440 But we don't want to say quarantine because that would 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:31.440 be that would be a lockdown. And the leader of 0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:35.200 the CDC rode to power by claiming that he had 0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:37.440 to get papers to walk around Stanford, when in fact 0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:40.119 he didn't write. And so Jay Abadachari is so anti 0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:42.439 lockdown that he's unwilling to say to people who are 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:45.000 high risk, you need to stay home. And I'll just 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:48.240 give you another example. Wow, right now, if you came 0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:51.040 from the m behind us and you are in the 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:53.679 in the bio containment or the quarantine center, you can 0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:55.760 choose to go home in the next seventy two hours, 0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:59.000 right And that's fine. We think people will do the 0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:02.200 right thing. If someone wants to leave their house who's 0:23:02.200 --> 0:23:06.439 in that group and go to church, it's that's legal. 0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:10.120 There's no legal problem with that, and so this government 0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:12.600 doesn't want to do anything about that. That's the first problem. 0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:14.840 The second problem is this, if there were to be 0:23:14.880 --> 0:23:17.840