WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 28th, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.680 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Terry Haynes of Pangaeepolicy, Terry, 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:40.879 Welcome to the program. There is always a temptation to 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:43.159 move on to the next thing. I just want to 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.280 talk about the last thing for a little bit longer. 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.240 Just frame what we witnessed over the weekend. To see 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:52.040 European Commission president except fifteen percent and essentially say thank you, 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:55.600 we will rebalance and almost apologizing about the situation. 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:00.440 Well, it's a it's a triumph of a lot of things. 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.120 Certainly the president ought to take a victory lap. I 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:05.160 think it's I think it ends up being good for 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:08.560 the European Union. It's a blow against the conventional wisdom, 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:11.000 which of course, in the last quarter saw a lot 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.720 of this as disastrous. The markets see the fact of 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:17.800 the deal and the ratification of trade and the expansion 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:21.679 of trade is the most important thing and number one. 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.520 Number two, I think there's a situation here where as 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.840 you've alluded to when you're questioning with Tyler, that the 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:33.600 geopolitical element of this also remains front and center. Whether 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:37.440 we're talking about the continued interdependence of the US and 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:41.560 European Union economies, or whether we're talking about investments in 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:45.679 the United States and purchases of military equipment. You're seeing 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.320 a You're seeing a tightening of the alliance, and I think, 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:52.800 frankly an attempt by both parties to push back a 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.600 bit against against China terry. 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:57.640 Just to build on that theme, we're hearing from the 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:01.640 EU Trade Commissioner morro Sekovich this morning in Brussels, and 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.920 he commented on how overcapacity is destroying the EU steel industry. 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:09.560 Over Capacity is sort of code from steel from China, 0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:12.560 and I wonder how much that is. Ongoing discussions that 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:14.919 are happening now that have pushed Europeans to make this 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.040 deal with the United States, even if it's being perceived 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:19.680 by the market as being better for the. 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:23.000 US, well, they'll they'll certainly try to make a deal 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.000 on this. But at the same time, you know, the 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:28.280 europe sees in the United States sees as well. 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:28.840 I think the. 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:37.880 China using the economic sectors and industries as geopolitical weapons. 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:44.320 And there's nothing there's nothing more stark than China trying 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:48.680 to flood the European market with evs for example, on this. 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:54.880 And you know, we even see Bloomberg reported recently Starbucks 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.760 under assault now by a Chinese coffee company starting in 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:04.080 New York, vastly undercutting prices. So you'll see this throughout 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:08.160 and it is a light motif these trade deals and 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:12.760 the fulcrum of kind of pushing back against China, limiting 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:16.960 China's ability to try to use industries and sectors to 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:21.000 frankly hollow out and destroy industrial capacity in the West. 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:23.520 What have we learned from both the Japanese deal and 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:26.400 the EU deal in terms of the structure of the 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:30.240 sustainable trade conversation going forward? Is it the fifteen percent 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:32.200 is a new floor and that you have to have 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.400 some sort of investment fund alongside that. The details of 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.800 which haven't really been disclosed on either side. 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:40.920 I tend to go outside in on this instead of 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:42.960 inside out. What I mean by this is I think 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.160 I think markets, and I've said this many times on 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:50.640 this program, I think markets are focusing entirely too much 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.000 on tariffs and entirely not too much on the broader 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:59.560 benefits of the rest of Trump trade and trade policy 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:04.080 and tax policy, whether it be the tax bill and 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.280 the variety of things that are that are coming from 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.680 that or these trade deals, and how they're trying to 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:14.960 reorient in ways that frankly continue and expand investment in 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:19.400 the United States as a compliment to onshoing and reshoring 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:23.279 in critical critical industries, as Secretary best and puts it. 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:25.440 In fairness, though, stops are at record high. So if 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:28.320 you're reaching record high after record high and what capacity, 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.520 are you saying that markets are not aware of some 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.960 of the positive benefits from this, Well. 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:35.919 I'm saying that they haven't been, first of all, And 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.359 second of all, I'm saying that there's there continues to 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:42.719 be a focus on tariffs as a negative without the 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:48.640 countervailing positives and attached. Certainly, markets had gotten over a 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:52.000 lot of the tariff shock in the last quarter, and 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.640 you know got past the idea from the conventional wisdom 0:04:55.720 --> 0:05:00.080 that this was going to cause a hole in the economy. Now, 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.400 what your situation is, Steve put it very well in 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.440 the last segment, is you've got a variety of hoops 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:09.039 that have been jumped through all of what your market positives. 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.880 And now we're turning to for example, the FED this 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:14.640 week as well as earnings to see if the proofs 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:15.359 and the putting on that. 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:18.360 Side the narrative has changed quickly. Let's put it that way, Terry, 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:30.080 appreciate your time. Terry Haynes. There of panchee policy. Steve 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.440 Reshoot of Mazoo with a bullish forecast for Friday's payrolls report, 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:35.560 calling for one hundred and forty thousand jobs to be 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:38.600 added and expecting the unemployment rate to tick up slightly. 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.159 Steve joined us now for more Steve Goomonic, good morning. 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.400 Some of the times that maybe one forty is called bullish. 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.560 Now for the labor market, what's changed, Well. 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:48.800 You are further into a business cycle. You do have 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.480 a labor market shortage. You do have a very very 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.119 tight labor market, so it's hard to continue to add 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.200 large scales without causing a certain amount of disruptions and 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.800 a dramatic rise in wages, and I think companies have 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:02.039 been resistant on that. I also think there's a bit 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:04.600 of a technology shift taking price, and I don't think it's 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.760 all the AI, but I think it's further adopting of 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:12.280 the traditional types of technology that we need to do 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.279 things in the service industry with more and more kiosks 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:18.719 popping up everywhere, and I think that helps the situation 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.040 as well. So we're supplementing labor or get a little 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:22.240 bit with capital where we can. 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.760 You have some people like Chris Waller, governor who's expected 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.840 to send the first ascent on the Federal Reserve since 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:30.080 nineteen ninety three, potentially on Wednesday, coming out and saying 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:33.920 he's seeing cracks, he's seeing signs that there is instability 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.680 in the labor market. Do you reject that wholesale or 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.680 do you just say that that is something that comes 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.280 along with the changes in technology and demographics. 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:45.200 Well, I do reject at wholesale because what we see 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:46.960 in terms of the claims numbers, what we see in 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.560 terms of the continuing claims numbers leave us in an 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:53.360 environment in which you know there's a healthy labor marketing environment. 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.040 We see no evidence whatsoever in the data that's less 0:06:57.120 --> 0:07:01.880 likely to be disrupted by any kind of flow differentials. 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.120 We also seen in terms of the Jolts numbers, which 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:06.120 I don't particularly like, but the FED seems to like 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.640 in terms of hiring quits going back up, in terms 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.480 of hirings being healthy, in terms of job openings going 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:14.320 back up. So I don't see where there really are 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:18.680 cracks in the labor market. It's a traditional slowing that 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:21.280 takes place as you get this far into an environment. 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:23.200 And oh, by the way, adjust it for how tight 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:24.480 the labor market fundamental he. 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:26.440 Is, given the fact that we do see some sort 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.440 of slowing at least at the very least, Is there 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:32.920 anything inflationary about this labor market? Is there anything about 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.560 wage growth that would give you confidence that we could 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:39.040 see more than just a one time price adjustment from tariffs? 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:41.680 Oh, I think you grew up going towards a three 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:45.160 percent inflation rate, and that's part of the issue. I 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:47.560 think it's from a labor market tight standpoint, I don't 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:50.080 necessarily have to talk about tariffs to tell you I 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:52.880 think we're going to three percent inflation, and I question 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:57.600 whether or not tariffs themselves will be reflected in prices substantially, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:01.920 because you look at quorter margins, they're very, very wide. 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:04.600 You look at exporter margins with the dollar going down, 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.160 you've got that benefit coming through a little bit of 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.280 goods prices. We've seen given the fact that the dollar 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:13.320 is depreciated six or seven percent in the last year, 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.720 and not surprising you see a little upward movement in 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:19.760 prices that would typically just take place from the currency standpoint, 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.160 and actually it's not even keeping place with the currency standpoint, 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.360 because global deflation is real. And that's the other thing 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:30.480 that's offsetting and helping the exporter margins widing, because as 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.040 China dumps all its goods everywhere else in the world, 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:35.839 these people are sitting there with their run material base 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:39.440 starting to get cheaper, and therefore they could absorb the 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:41.920 margins where and China is dumping goods everywhere that they 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:42.920 can't dump here anymore. 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.640 Other capacity is a massive issue, particularly for the Europeans. 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:48.400 That's for sure. You said something really interested that we 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.079 need to unpack the labor market might be a reason 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.400 to be hawk issh still, Governor Walla was in your 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.000 seat a week two weeks ago. I made the case 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:59.120 the labor market is increasingly becoming a reason to be dumbished. 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.280 So I just want to give you some time. What's 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.400 happening in the labor market right now that you think 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:04.760 is going to keep them on the back foot. 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:07.720 I think the fact that the unemployment rate is not 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:11.360 going to go higher. I think the you know, movement 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.680 to four point two, we've been there and they've done nothing. 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:15.960 But I think when you look at the fundamentals of 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.600 the labor market and what will drive that unemployment rate 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.600 up a little bit, you can discover that it's positive science. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.120 An expansion in the labor force from not having expanded 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:25.920 for two months in a row. That's going to be 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:27.480 the kind of thing that you know, gives you an 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:29.439 environment where and that's probably going to wind up in 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:32.439 a little bit increase in unemployment. Temporarily, you're going to 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.599 wind up in an environment where it's a healthy expansion 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:37.920 in the labor market help you up with adjustment in 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.440 the unemployment rate. I don't think there's cracks in the 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:43.200 system when I look at the earnings numbers. You know, 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.680 my earnings revision tracker is now positive after being negative 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:49.360 for weeks on end, It's now been positive for three 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:52.640 weeks in a row. Companies are revising up earnings. We're 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.440 at ten point nine percent for this year, thirteen point 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.400 nine percent for next year. These are solid earnings numbers. 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:00.160 These aren't kind of an earning number of peop will 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.079 sit back and say I have to scale back on 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:04.920 employment dramatically. I think a lot of the announcements that 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:07.240 you're picking up on in the labor market are taking 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.559 place in states where you're required to announce the layoffs, 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.800 but you're not required to announce the net hirings, and 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.240 I think that becomes part. 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:15.679 Of the problem. 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:19.319 It's selective decision to look at the information. And this 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.840 is a confirmation bias I think comes from the dots. 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.559 If I were to drop Jonathan Ferroll out of an 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.240 alien spacecraft, you had been studying the Federal Reserve for years, 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.320 you'd been studying the US economy for years, but you 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:32.640 didn't know any about the dots, and I dropped you 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.760 in Arizona right now, Okay, you would come out of 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:37.640 that spacecraft and you would be like, Oh, the FED 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.319 shouldn't be cutting rates. But everyone else says the Fed's 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.840 cutting rates. Why because the dots are there, so everyone's 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:43.920 biased by the dots. 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:47.000 Other people might cherry peck some labor market data. Right now, 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.200 at least, I've talked about a few things. Entry level 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.520 hiring not great at all, job switches not getting that 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.040 boost to pay. You talked about the labor market and 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:58.839 the tightness there, sufficiently tight to generate stronger pay rolls growth, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:02.520 stronger wage growth. It keeps this FED reluctant account interest rights. 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.080 We've got an hoarurwly earnings number of zero point four percent. 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:08.480 That's again consistent with a four percent rise. A four 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:12.240 percent rise is consistent with three percent inflation. FEDS targets too. 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:15.320 We're a two point seven our estimate for the upcoming 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.360 PCE deflator. There's seven tenths off the mark, three tenths 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.080 closer to my number, seven tenths away from their number. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.840 I'm sorry. I think they're not in the position to 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:25.880 cut rates. And if they were to cut rates, I 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.000 think it would be a mistake. And I think you'd 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:31.400 discover exactly what happened last year when they cut rates, 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:32.960 and that is the long end of the curve. Would 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:35.920 sell off, so it would be a bear steepener. 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.280 Which at a certain point is the reason why people 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.199 are also looking to the auctions. Sorry, I had to 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:41.640 say that I've been ormissed. There are auctions today and 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.000 tomorrow two year, five year, and seven year notes, but 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.160 also the Treasury refunding announcement that comes on Wednesday, when 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.000 maybe we get a sense of whether any of this 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.720 will matter for the US government's dep financing costs because 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.400 maybe they'll issue everything in t bills and just retire 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.800 all of their coupon all of their treasury bonds. I mean, 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.840 how much are you looking at that to really understand 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.680 exactly how this Treasure Department is going to manage this 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:06.479 and whether it's going to have any market immifications. 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:08.959 Well, I think there's lots of reasons to expect bill 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.960 issue sizes will go up. Back when I began, which 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:16.800 was ancient history in terms of the markets, one of 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:18.720 the things I had to do was estimate the treasuries 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:20.760 operating cash balance. So I had to figure out financy 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.360 and I had to figure out the net cash flows, 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.360 and we assumed every single quarter a third of all 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.320 the net new money would be raised in bills. That's 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.000 not happening now. So yeah, there's more bill issuance coming 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:32.160 relative to coupon issuance. 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:34.400 When you came in, you said that there's something else 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:35.120 that you're looking for. 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.959 Stable Coin is something that I'm going to be looking 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:39.920 to see whether or not Treasure Secretary of pressent a 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:43.520 if he's back from his overseas trip and talks further 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:45.640 about stable coin than he did at the May Were 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.440 funding announcement, And he made a statement at that point 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:49.720 in time that I think get stuck in a lot 0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:51.720 of people's minds. And I visited a lot of accounts, 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.080 and some of these accounts are very, very interested in 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.800 the whole stable coin concept and where do we go 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:58.720 with stable coin and how much of it will be 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:02.920 financed through bills, And he talked about two trillion dollars 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.680 market cap. You look at stable coin now, it's about 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.480 three hundred two hundred billion dollars. So that's telling it 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.520 there's a long way to go. And I question whether 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.599 or not if you wind up with it being done properly, 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.439 if you want it, For example, the Federal Reserve issuing 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.160 its own stable coin, could you then be in a 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.719 situation where we might actually replace a lot of our 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.880 electronic transfers of wires and replace the swift system with 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.880 something more simple and less costly for the end result user. 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.240 And know the banks don't want this because clearly it 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.320 influences a business they make a lot of money on. 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.240 But clearly the end user wants it. I can imagine 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:43.520 a place like Walmart, Target, Boeing, these big people, these exporters, 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.200 these importers, all sitting there saying, you know, this would 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:46.560 be great. 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:47.720 It reduces my costs. 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.920 I really think we have to do this right now. 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.000 We've got lots of stable coins going in different directions 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.360 and trying to do different things. If we could find 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:59.160 one way of unifying it and putting them all on 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.120 one network, creating it all in terms of one large 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.960 ability to do it, for example, with a treasury coin 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:07.679 hosted on a Federal Reserve website, I think you can 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:09.960 get a very fast adoption of the technology. 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.679 You think it leads to increased tea build demand. 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.360 I do think it leads to increased tea build demand, 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.359 because I do not believe it'll affect currency in circulation, 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.520 which affects the rest of the Federal Reserves portfolio. Currency 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:22.840 in circulation is a percentage of the economy's percent of 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.880 financial transactions is not going down. Yes, a lot of 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.520 the currency in circulation is outside the country, but we 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:31.760 still have the currency that's in circulation once up outside 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.720 the country. But we do have as a result of that, 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.080 the big federal reserve portfolio, and I don't think it changes. 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:39.040 So Yes, what happens in terms of stable coin, I 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:40.320 think will be a net new demand. 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:40.880 Interesting. 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.160 Happy to catch Shelby this morning Church a lot of 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.320 the audience Ryan and as well Steved shouldov missoo, I 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.120 have an a tremendous yes, so far dead on so 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:58.320 far this year on a lot of issues. Well, it's 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:00.920 nice watched football league making its way across the Atlantic. 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:03.600 The English Premier League is playing six matches for sold 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:07.000 out crowds in New Jersey, Chicago, and Atlanta this summer, 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:09.880 the series kicking off this past weekend with Manchester United 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.560 beating West Ham joining us. Now, I'm very pleased to 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.640 say the CEO of the English Premier League, Richard Master's 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:16.560 Richard and Monic. 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:17.440 Good morning, thank you for having me. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.240 Welcome to the studio here in New York. It's going 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.480 to see you, sir, let's just talk about your involvement 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:23.280 in the sport. I think it's almost twenty years of 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.440 direct involvement with the Premier League. Are you surprised by 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.920 the amount of growth we've seen? Not in the UK, 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:31.120 forget all of that, the amount of growth we've seen 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:33.000 in America. 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.320 Twenty years next January at the Premier League seven years 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.600 a CEO in December, what's the Premier League gets? Get 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.040 bigger and bigger and bigger and out here in the 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.840 US we've got a fantastic broadcast relationship NBC. We've opened 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.080 offices here in New York. We're committed to grow in 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.560 the game. About thirty percent of the US population not 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.400 interested in soccer or football, and about two thirds of 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:54.760 those followed the Premier League. 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:56.480 And that's a brilliant foundation which to growth. 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.560 Reason we're out here with six of our teams playing 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.640 matches to give our fans a taste to the Premier League. 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.360 As a Britain New York I can tell you the 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.720 experience of NBC is amazing. I get to wake up 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:09.880 on a Saturday morning on a Sunday and I get 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:13.560 to watch absolutely everything. That's not the experience in the 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:16.080 UK with Sky. It's a very different experience. You only 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.040 get to watch so much. Why do we get to 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.840 see so much more through NBC than maybe fans in 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:23.440 the UK get to see at home. 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.680 Well, in the UK, the matches between two and five 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.120 o'clock on a Saturday afternoon, which is the traditional time 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.200 to go and watch football in the country, aren't broadcast. 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.160 So it's not just the Premier League. The FFL as 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:35.080 well aren't. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:36.720 Broadcast, and that's part of the decision we've made. It's 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.880 long term commitment to what's called Article forty eight. But 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.120 anywhere else outside of the UK, it's all three hundred 0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:44.760 and eighty games throughout the season you can watch. 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:46.560 And of course here in the US, as you. 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.520 Say, there are millions of people getting up on a 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.280 Saturday and Sunday morning watching their favorite team and you 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:53.960 can sit there from seven AMS or lunchtime watch the 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:56.640 entire thing if you want to, And that's a brilliant 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:57.080 thing for us. 0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:58.880 Does it kind of hurt your soul to say soccer 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:00.400 instead of football at all? 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:03.160 I think they're interchangeable. When I grew up, I grew 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:07.480 up in the Midlands, I watched soccer Sunday on Star 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:12.120 soccer rather on a Sunday lunchtime, so it's interchangeable at this. 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:15.879 Point, though, does it dilute the pelayer's ability to really 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.239 commit to not only a team but a season if 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.240 they're playing at all times in all places and their 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:24.680 bodies have to be exhausted at a certain point. 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:25.680 Now that's true. 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:27.560 I mean there is a starter of players at the 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.359 top of the game who are playing a lot, and 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.959 it's a big issue within the game. The Premier League, obviously, 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.280 since ninety four, has been twenty clubs to in gen 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:39.080 eighty games August to May, but we've seen the gradual 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:43.480 expansion of European competitions and now global competitions as well. 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:45.399 Next summer, the US will host. 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:48.520 The World Cup first time forty eight teams, and of 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:50.920 course in the last summer we've seen the Club World Cup, 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.520 a brand new competition put into the calendar. And I 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:56.800 think that from my perspective, not just as CEO the 0:17:56.840 --> 0:17:59.119 Premi League, but also my other role as chair of 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:03.240 the World League's Sociation, which is about representing domestic leagues 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.639 around the world, there has to be a big conversation 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.640 now about how you balance this out properly and make 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.879 sure that players are looked after and that these competitions 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.359 are additive and not subtractive from the competitions they bump into. 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:17.640 Well, it's have that conversation right now. I can speak 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.000 as a fan. I hate it. I don't want to 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.960 see an expanded FIFA Club World Cub. In fact, for 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.560 most fans of the English Premier League, we get annoyed 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:27.600 whenever there's an international break. We don't want to see 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:29.680 more tournaments. What we loved was just the cadence of 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.639 every two years you had a major tournament. The Euro's, 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:34.320 the World Cup, the Euro's the World Cub. Why have 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.639 we gotten away from there? And what's your message to 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.520 FIFA to UEFA, as in the minds of many fans 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:41.879 they just seem to be chasing money, the expense of 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:43.760 the game and maybe the player's health. 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:45.800 Well, the message is talk. 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.679 You know that there is actually strong dialogue between domestic 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.600 leagues in Europe and New AFA about competitions and that's 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:57.320 a coalition of stakeholders, clubs, leagues, club players as well 0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.119 talking about it. That dialogue doesn't happen at all for 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.520 the game and it should do. So that's the key message. 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.320 Sit down and talk to the leaguees, talk to all 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:06.760 the stakeholders and find a way through all of this, 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:10.240 because it has a limit and I think we've gone 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.240 past it. We've gone past saturation point. My job, obviously 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.480 is to look after the Premier League, and we're going 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:18.439 great guns, thank you very much. And I want the 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:21.280