1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:15,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, Single Best Idea, Kind

2
00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,239
Speaker 1: Apple Podcast. Thank you for subscribing. Tell your friends, I'm

3
00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,680
Speaker 1: desperate to have more listeners. Single Best Idea. We're growing

4
00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:23,800
Speaker 1: it out every day. It's six minutes as smart, maybe

5
00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,920
Speaker 1: five minutes, maybe seven minutes, two ideas, typically from our

6
00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 1: wonderful guest. Today was a brutal day of excellence. We

7
00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,720
Speaker 1: had some incredibly smart voices for those of the gloom persuasion.

8
00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,360
Speaker 1: Matt Smith of the University of Edinburgh joined from Rougher,

9
00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,520
Speaker 1: a name I didn't know. It's a wonderful investment house

10
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,599
Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom. With that caution, it's pretty rare

11
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: right now in this bull market. Maybe you're not a bull,

12
00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,320
Speaker 1: maybe you're not in the Magnificent seven, but it is

13
00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 1: sort of up, up and away in our beautiful balloon.

14
00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 1: Rougher saying, no, they're extremely caught, vicious and just simply

15
00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,840
Speaker 1: out of Meg seven. As a really welcome a different tone.

16
00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,200
Speaker 1: We did a little less politics today and I wanted

17
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:13,520
Speaker 1: to fold the political moment in Washington into where we're

18
00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 1: going to be after the first Tuesday of November. Also,

19
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:22,960
Speaker 1: Lingos is incredibly competent with work for the EU in Brussels.

20
00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,720
Speaker 1: She's with RBC Capital Markets. Her note is absolutely brilliant,

21
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 1: always looking at depreciation and controlled depreciation of the Chinese.

22
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:35,320
Speaker 1: You want, here's Elso Lingos, I'm Trump and Biden.

23
00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 2: Certainly, if you look at the booking, the bookis markets,

24
00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,400
Speaker 2: the betting odds, they give Trump the advantage heading into

25
00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,559
Speaker 2: the November election, right, and when I speak to investors

26
00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,440
Speaker 2: and clients, I would say a very large majority expected

27
00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 2: Trump victory. And yet I expect that actually the dollar

28
00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,560
Speaker 2: would probably move less on a Biden victory, in that

29
00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,280
Speaker 2: it would be perceived as an extension of the status

30
00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,559
Speaker 2: quo on a Trump victory. On a Trump second term,

31
00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 2: there's some very diverging views on what that would mean

32
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,960
Speaker 2: for the US dollar. Many people out there, myself included,

33
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,560
Speaker 2: think it could be pretty dollar positive, particularly if he's

34
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,959
Speaker 2: very aggressive on the tariffront. But others argue the long

35
00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,120
Speaker 2: term debt sustainability of the US or the pressure that

36
00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,520
Speaker 2: Trump may put on the FED would lead the dollar down.

37
00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,720
Speaker 2: And I think it's that uncertainty which makes people unable

38
00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,040
Speaker 2: to really trade it ahead of the election.

39
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,680
Speaker 1: Also Lingos RBC Capital Markets, and of course there'll be

40
00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:35,200
Speaker 1: many more linkages of politics into economics, finance, and investment.

41
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 1: I'm not a big fan of it, to be full disclosure.

42
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,840
Speaker 1: I grew up in a house where my mother, among others,

43
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,720
Speaker 1: was addictive studying the politics. What's it mean for the

44
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,399
Speaker 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average. I've never been a big fan

45
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 1: of it, but I do read everyone that's attuned to this.

46
00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:54,160
Speaker 1: Maybe one name that's important is David Rosenberg up in

47
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,920
Speaker 1: Toronto with Rosenberg Research. David does some great work linking

48
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:04,120
Speaker 1: in investment into the political moment as well. While we

49
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,880
Speaker 1: had to do politics yesterday was wonderful. David Gura of

50
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: the Big Take joining us Greg Villiers among others. Today

51
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:13,760
Speaker 1: we tried to do a little less. We know you're

52
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,840
Speaker 1: all exhausted by it. Nevertheless, here it is looked at

53
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,480
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew, Kayley Lynes balance of Power for all their

54
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 1: work in the heat of Washington. But what's important here

55
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,440
Speaker 1: is to get a voice that I adore. Henrietta Treys

56
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 1: is with Veda Partners Bulletproof Capitol Hill Perspective and wired

57
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:39,360
Speaker 1: in to the subgroups around sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. Henrietta

58
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 1: trays on where we are in Washington.

59
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 3: I understand that the President has made this a sort

60
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,440
Speaker 3: of elites versus the rabble situation, where he's say, the

61
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,920
Speaker 3: voters want Biden, and it's the elites who've turned against him.

62
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,760
Speaker 3: And what's ironic is I literally wrote a note the

63
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 3: exact same hour as he wrote his, with the exact state,

64
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,960
Speaker 3: with the exact opposite takeaway. The rank and file democrats

65
00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,840
Speaker 3: across the country, independence moderates, and particularly female voters have

66
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 3: said repeatedly all year long they do not want another

67
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,000
Speaker 3: term for Joe Biden. They do not believe that he

68
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,320
Speaker 3: is up to the task. And it's been the elites

69
00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,040
Speaker 3: who have said, you know what, we're going to stick

70
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 3: with this guy.

71
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,720
Speaker 4: The senators are behind in the House members behind him,

72
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,919
Speaker 4: and now both tithes are shifting, and I'm really just

73
00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,560
Speaker 4: watching which senators, you know, from an office or a

74
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,600
Speaker 4: chamber where Biden operated for thirty six years, is going

75
00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 4: to make.

76
00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:31,880
Speaker 3: The decision to say, hey, you know what, thank you

77
00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:32,839
Speaker 3: so much for your service.

78
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:33,640
Speaker 4: It's time to move on.

79
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:35,600
Speaker 3: That's really the only thing that matters right now. I

80
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,360
Speaker 3: think we're about a week and a half away, but

81
00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:38,920
Speaker 3: that's that's the most important thing.

82
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,400
Speaker 1: In DC right now, Henrieta Troy's fate partners, and I

83
00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,839
Speaker 1: would point out I think of Terry Hayes, what others

84
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,040
Speaker 1: as well that have said the polls are everything. There

85
00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,080
Speaker 1: have been some polls, including a smart poll complete poll

86
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:55,080
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg, But I really have to say up to Milwaukee,

87
00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,919
Speaker 1: I believe July fifteenth, what's today, Today's tenth the ninth

88
00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,680
Speaker 1: tenth five days away or so. I think we're going

89
00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 1: to get a lot of polling in that maybe will

90
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:10,320
Speaker 1: affect the commentary that we hear from our good guess tomorrow. Inflation,

91
00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,360
Speaker 1: I don't have an opinion. In fact, I haven't even

92
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 1: looked at the ECEO. Go to see what the year

93
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,840
Speaker 1: over year, Michael McKee says, look at the month over month.

94
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:23,719
Speaker 1: I'm not but inflation tomorrow, and with all the uproar

95
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:28,680
Speaker 1: in Paris, in London, France, the United Kingdom, the sixth

96
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,279
Speaker 1: Republic of France, please, and in Washington, I think we've

97
00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,960
Speaker 1: taken our eye off the ball. This is a huge report.

98
00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,520
Speaker 1: We'll go beneath the headline data at eight point thirty

99
00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:43,080
Speaker 1: with a lot of good study of this disinflationary tendency,

100
00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,320
Speaker 1: the huge mystery in America of where inflation is heading.

101
00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,919
Speaker 1: We're on YouTube. You go to Chrome, you go to

102
00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:58,160
Speaker 1: Gmail or excuse me, Google, and you put in YouTube

103
00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:03,159
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts. You can search there for Bloomberg podcasts. You

104
00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:07,600
Speaker 1: can subscribe to Bloomberg podcast growing Out. Really nice clip.

105
00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,600
Speaker 1: I'm sort of humbled by it. It's amazing. Thank you. Well,

106
00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,120
Speaker 1: somebody listened from Tibet today. I had to look on

107
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,839
Speaker 1: the map where they were. I don't even know how

108
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,000
Speaker 1: you get there. It's like I gotta go watch the

109
00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,320
Speaker 1: Lost Horizon movie of umpteen years ago. Thank you for

110
00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,680
Speaker 1: watching on YouTube in Tibet, and also of course on

111
00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,960
Speaker 1: an Apple car play an Android Auto, as well on

112
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts. Single best idea