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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday NFL wild Card Weekend episode. We're going to

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Speaker 1: break down the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. We

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Speaker 1: will discuss our exec decision and our Simon says and

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Speaker 1: do not fret. On Thursday, we will have the usual menu,

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Speaker 1: foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. The number of

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Speaker 1: games slims down, but our enthusiasm for the playoffs has

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Speaker 1: never been bigger. Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my bff, my cost my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mike combiede Er Professional Better, Simon Hunter l Simon.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Chat. I feel bad I'll saying I hadn't ask

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Speaker 2: you about who the hell you want to be the

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Speaker 2: new Bear's new head coach.

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Speaker 1: Well, I've got so many good choices now between potentially

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy or Thomas Brown or Ben Johnson, who, if

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Speaker 1: he's smart, is going to run as fast as he

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Speaker 1: can from this glorious opportunity. This morning I woke up

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, I love Mike McCarthy. I think he'd

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Speaker 1: be great. Like, my expectations are so low right now

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Speaker 1: for who will be the head coach? What this organization

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Speaker 1: can pull in based on its history, based on its

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Speaker 1: executive structure, based on how much it might be willing

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Speaker 1: to pay versus other teams, Like can we get Mike

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Speaker 1: dickaback like Mike dick a circa nineteen eighty three, who

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Speaker 1: is essentially Dan Campbell?

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Speaker 2: True?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. Is there a Dan Campbell motivator out

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Speaker 1: there who can overcome literally generations of ineptitude and ownership

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Speaker 1: that is legacy focused and driven and has not been

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Speaker 1: able to transform into a modern organization. Give me that guy.

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Speaker 2: I'll say. I've learned as an Eagles fan that you

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Speaker 2: don't want the guy you want, you usually don't want

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Speaker 2: to get, right. I remember I wanted Ben Nacadoo and

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Speaker 2: the Eagles, and we got Doug Peterson, some nobody QB

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Speaker 2: coach from Kansas City War still wore visors and I

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Speaker 2: was like, oh my god, this guy is not filly

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Speaker 2: at all. Probably my only ring so shows how stupid

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Speaker 2: Ust fans can be. So yeah, I just want to

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Speaker 2: get your level of it because I'm I'm reading, I'm

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Speaker 2: with you, I'm reading the news and everything like that,

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Speaker 2: and it's like, man, this is gonna be really interesting

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Speaker 2: to see who ends up with the Bears because you

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Speaker 2: do have, you know, the top talent at quarterback position,

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Speaker 2: and there's a lot to work with it with his team.

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Speaker 2: So it's to me, it's fun like when you're trying

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Speaker 2: to figure out the future when you're a team like

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Speaker 2: you have, it's it's exciting to because either going to

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Speaker 2: absolutely love it or you were going to hate whoever

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Speaker 2: they bring.

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Speaker 1: In, doesn't matter. It's not going to end well and

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Speaker 1: it'll be the wrong person. It's so funny that you

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Speaker 1: mentioned Doug Peterson because I wrote a little soliloquy about

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Speaker 1: Doug into the script today because he means a lot

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Speaker 1: to both of us and he's an integral part of

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Speaker 1: both of our lives. You just mentioned he led your

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Speaker 1: favorite team to its only super Bowl win in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: which happened to be played a little Action Network history here.

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Speaker 1: Weeks after we launched Action and we did a massive

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Speaker 1: radio and TV blitz, like in the two weeks before

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl to get Action all over local radio,

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Speaker 1: doing these radio two tours, thirty forty fifty spots, whatever,

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Speaker 1: and we were all over you know, the airwaves, predicting

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Speaker 1: that the Eagles would cover as underdogs in that game

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Speaker 1: against the Pats. Obviously they did more than that, and

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Speaker 1: it kicked off a beautiful beginning to our business. As

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Speaker 1: you know, I just said it, like I almost feel

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Speaker 1: like Doug Peterson is a little bit of the precursor

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Speaker 1: to Dan Campbell because the most famous play from that game,

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Speaker 1: of course, is Philly Special, Philly, Philly. They go forward

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Speaker 1: on fourth and one at the end of the first half.

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Speaker 1: It turns from a fifteen to twelve leave into a

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Speaker 1: twenty two to twelve lead. They scored a touchdown on

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Speaker 1: the play. It was that you know, option to Nick Foles,

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Speaker 1: who was who caught the ball in the end zone.

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Speaker 1: But here's the real reason why, Well do you agree

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Speaker 1: with me? By the way, like I think he was

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Speaker 1: at the leading edge of going forward and fourth down.

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Speaker 1: He was more aggressive as the Eagles coach than any

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Speaker 1: other coach in the NFL was at the time, and

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Speaker 1: it sort of gave birth to what a life lot

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Speaker 1: of coaches do today, especially Dan Campbell.

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Speaker 2: Shockingly, I can't be I'm gonna do it because he

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Speaker 2: was not this way at the end of his career.

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Speaker 2: But Riverboat Ron Ron Rivera that team, that run, he

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Speaker 2: was the most go for Cam Newton fourth and two,

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Speaker 2: fourth and three, ultimate trust in his quarterback. So I'll

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Speaker 2: give him the crib, But I think Doug definitely was

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Speaker 2: the guy that was the first to have a ton

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Speaker 2: of success with it, right, like that that run, you

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Speaker 2: know that was all about it, right He even that

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl He had those big, big moments like that,

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Speaker 2: like you just talked to the Philly specials on a

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Speaker 2: fourth and one, like, you know he misses that play.

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Speaker 2: Talk about an idiot, right if like you're going for

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Speaker 2: in that in that position. So yeah, Doug. Doug Peterson

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Speaker 2: definitely at the top of that list.

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Speaker 1: We also love him because his team's covered this season.

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Speaker 1: This Like we talked about this when he came back, like.

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Speaker 2: We was good to us as a dog.

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Speaker 1: I loved betting Doug Peterson when he came back to

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Speaker 1: the Jags. Uh. He finished his career over five hundred

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Speaker 1: over fifty three as an underdog, so he was covering

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Speaker 1: and making us money this season. This is a great

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Speaker 1: stat I looked this up on Action network you can

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Speaker 1: see against the spread records. This season, the Jags were

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Speaker 1: ten and seven against the spread, tied with four other

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Speaker 1: teams for eleventh best. However, they were only They were

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Speaker 1: the only team of the top thirteen teams to finish

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Speaker 1: with double digit losses and only one of three teams

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Speaker 1: to not make the playoffs. The others were the nine

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Speaker 1: win Bengals and the eight win Cardinals. Late in the year,

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Speaker 1: he provided one of the few bright spots we had

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Speaker 1: this season. We just had a beat on Doug Peterson

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Speaker 1: and Mac Jones and his team. So let's give it

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Speaker 1: up for Doug. Ep Thank you Doug, Thank you Doug.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in Presidenton, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply right One last quick announcement before it gets

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Speaker 1: to a wildcard weekend. Our favorite one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them contest has crowned its winners. Paperwork

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Speaker 1: is being filled out, piles of cash or being dolled out.

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Speaker 1: On Thursday morning, Simon and I expect to be chatting

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Speaker 1: with are extremely excited forty thousand dollars first place winner.

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Speaker 1: I look forward to sharing that with listeners. The dude

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Speaker 1: was on fire all season long. We're gonna try to

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Speaker 1: convince to put all of it on Wildcard weekend with

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Speaker 1: us A very quick congrats two week eighteen winner, Promo

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Speaker 1: Master went five and zero within one yard of the tiebreaker.

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Speaker 1: Promo Master takes home the final weekly one thousand dollars prize. Simon,

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Speaker 1: we love the playoffs we're starting a new it's a

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Speaker 1: challenging regular season. I feel locked in. I feel good

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Speaker 1: about where we're headed. I feel like I have clarity.

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Speaker 1: Are you ready to roll with your brother?

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Speaker 2: I am. I just want to pick it back off

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Speaker 2: what you just said though, how much we do love

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Speaker 2: our fans and you know me chat, we don't know

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Speaker 2: the future with what our contest says next or anything

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Speaker 2: like that, but to have two seasons in a row

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Speaker 2: giving away over one hundred k cash, it's pretty cool,

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Speaker 2: man Like, it's it's so rich getting in this unique

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Speaker 2: position to do it. And thank you to all the

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Speaker 2: fans that played in the contest and obviously the fans

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Speaker 2: that came to our live show the past two years

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Speaker 2: and just talked about the contest and how much fun

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Speaker 2: it is. And you know a couple of people I've

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Speaker 2: met like that thousand dollars, right, that's huge that week, Right,

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Speaker 2: it goes towards your rent or maybe in a vacation

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Speaker 2: you're you're planning with a special friends. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: happy it's over for us personally, but I'm sad it's

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Speaker 2: over for the fans and end the season just because

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Speaker 2: it is so much fun. Just giving away free money every.

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Speaker 1: Week Simon another great example of how you feel more deeply.

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Speaker 1: N are a significantly kinder person than I am.

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Speaker 2: If you catch me at the right moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well it's early in the week. Right.

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Speaker 2: There you go.

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Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Chargers first playoff game, Saturday afternoon, visiting

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Speaker 1: the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 1: This game has been bouncing around three two and a half,

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Speaker 1: three two and a half. I did bet at at

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Speaker 1: two and a half. I bet the Chargers. It's at

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Speaker 1: three at bet three six five. There's one or two

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Speaker 1: books where you can get two and a half. We

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Speaker 1: like the Chargers on Sunday night. Nothing has changed mind,

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Speaker 1: thirty six hours of research since the game's locked on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night, digging in yesterday, so many thoughts on this.

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Speaker 1: But before I dig in, sort of from my point

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Speaker 1: of view, has anything changed for you since we first

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Speaker 1: started talking about it on Sunday?

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 2: I think our gut instinct of taking the minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half for the Chargers or take the minus

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Speaker 2: three was right. We both thought that this would go up.

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Speaker 2: The most shocking part is it did touch three and

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Speaker 2: a half for a second, and then some really smart

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Speaker 2: money clearly came in. A couple of those books moved

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Speaker 2: all the way two and a half. That's how much

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Speaker 2: they respect the money they did come in on Houston.

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Speaker 2: So it's it's gonna be an interesting game because I'm

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Speaker 2: not really seeing it from the Houston side. And like,

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Speaker 2: my perspective is, Okay, Houston's defense is better than people

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Speaker 2: give them credit for. Right, they have outperformed in a

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Speaker 2: lot of ways this season, but we've seen like Herbert

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Speaker 2: and this team against good defenses had played really well,

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Speaker 2: Like anytime they faced a good defense, they played sound football.

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Speaker 2: And especially Herbert, I mean, you know, obviously it's NonStop

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Speaker 2: us giving him flowers, but he deserves it this season,

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Speaker 2: Like the him being smarter with the ball is the

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Speaker 2: key to the success of this team this season. And

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you only had four turnovers or

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Speaker 2: five interceptions, whatever it was, it's it's incredibly low for

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Speaker 2: someone like him that loves to push the ball downfield.

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Speaker 2: So looking at this matchup on paper, it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we already love the Chargers matchup wise, like their defense

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Speaker 2: going against this really bad I don't say really bad

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Speaker 2: because they've had so many injuries to their offense in Houston,

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Speaker 2: but they are struggled, strug Yeah, struggling. And you know

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Speaker 2: the fact that we also have a short week here,

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Speaker 2: like that's not being talked enough to me, is that

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Speaker 2: this is a short week and it is a spot

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Speaker 2: where hardball, you know, he's three and oh straight up

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Speaker 2: and against the spread this season as on a short week.

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Speaker 2: On the flip side, we've seen Houston, they've struggled on

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Speaker 2: short weeks, right, They've not been the same team on

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Speaker 2: short weeks with less preparation. And the only hesitation for

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Speaker 2: me is that this will be the Chargers third strade

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Speaker 2: road game, Like that's not a great spot. They are

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Speaker 2: a road favorite in this spot, which is.

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Speaker 1: Stort straight as a road favorite, right.

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Speaker 2: So, like there's a lot of trends at point to

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Speaker 2: back in Houston, which is to me why smart money

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Speaker 2: here is coming in on Houston where it's like mathematically yes,

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Speaker 2: like Houston probably is the right side long term. But

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Speaker 2: me and chat always talk about there is that thirty

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Speaker 2: percent that's what we're betting on here. We're betting on

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Speaker 2: the other side of that where it's like this to

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Speaker 2: me is the right spot, the right side, and this

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Speaker 2: is the perfect team matchup wise against this this team

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Speaker 2: in Houston, Like, I just think that they could have

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Speaker 2: caught some other teams and maybe you could see a

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Speaker 2: way for Houston to win or cover. I'm just not

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Speaker 2: finding one in your chat, so, like it's shocking how

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Speaker 2: much I am supporting you here because this does feel

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Speaker 2: insanely chalky to me, like very very public. But to me,

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Speaker 2: the number is right, the value is on the number,

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Speaker 2: and I'm just I just think this should be three

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Speaker 2: and a half. We're getting three minus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'll take that value every time.

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Speaker 1: Smart money may be coming on Houston, but this is

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Speaker 1: the executive decision.

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Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you

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Speaker 2: have your honors text acute number executive decision.

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Speaker 1: It's partially the exact decision because a lot of the

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Speaker 1: other numbers have moved just much more aggressively from when

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Speaker 1: we first started talking about these. So I still like

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Speaker 1: the two and a half three for the Chargers. But

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Speaker 1: everything you said I can back up with even more

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Speaker 1: detail and more data. We have avoided betting the Texans,

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Speaker 1: right like CJ has not played well. He has not

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Speaker 1: played well because of constant injuries to his receiving corps.

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Speaker 1: The offensive line has truly been terrible. They cannot get

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Speaker 1: off the line of scrimmage and win one on one

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Speaker 1: matchups right now. Defenses have played him differently this year.

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Speaker 1: The last eight games of the year, they ranked twenty

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Speaker 1: eighth in EPA per play. You know, that's behind Chicago Bears,

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, why

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Speaker 1: have we loved the Chargers? You just mentioned it. They

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Speaker 1: do not turn the ball over only nine all season,

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Speaker 1: second fewest behind Buffalo. And I'm gonna keep saying it.

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Speaker 1: I feel like this year and we'll get We're gonna

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Speaker 1: do like a big sort of study over the offseason

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Speaker 1: on the impact of getting the ball to thirty and

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Speaker 1: then being able to be within field goal range within

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Speaker 1: a play or two. How that impacts coaching decisions, clock management,

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Speaker 1: fourth down decisions when you are deciding to go for

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Speaker 1: the extra four points, if you're on the other side

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Speaker 1: of the field and you know you have a field

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Speaker 1: goal in your pocket, Archers just don't make egregiously bad

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Speaker 1: coaching decisions. And that's been an imperative this year when

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Speaker 1: it comes to clock management, when it comes to going

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Speaker 1: forward and fourth down. So you and I are aligned.

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Speaker 1: I like the coaching matchup, not saying I don't like

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Speaker 1: Dmiko Ryans, but I just love Harbaugh and I like

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Speaker 1: what Herbert can do. I don't like how CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 1: has played. I think this will be the last game

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Speaker 1: to a tough year in which everything that the Texans

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Speaker 1: had had a hard time overcoming will come to fruition

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Speaker 1: in this game. They aren't going to all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden be great. They don't have the personnel that they

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Speaker 1: thought they were going to have.

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Speaker 2: And the basically the basics is that when you're going

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Speaker 2: through all these playoff games, you really have to believe

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Speaker 2: in the quarterback right when you're playing these numbers, because

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Speaker 2: that's that's what it all comes down to, and it's

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Speaker 2: the legacy play off. You know, we both remember obviously

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Speaker 2: what happened last time Herbert was in the playoffs. That

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Speaker 2: was an historical meltdown. But when you go back and

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Speaker 2: you think about it, it's like, if you had the

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Speaker 2: right coaching, that just wouldn't have happened against that Jaguars team.

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Speaker 2: His first time around the playoffs, So I'm not taking

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Speaker 2: too much away from it. I am taken away from

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Speaker 2: it that he came out in the playoffs this first

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Speaker 2: time around. He lit it up offensively. He was moving

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Speaker 2: the ball downfield. So I think Herbert is ready for

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Speaker 2: this moment. And I mean it's all sudden up chat

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Speaker 2: they if they if they steal this game here and

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Speaker 2: they do go to play Kansas City. We've seen how

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Speaker 2: tough they played Kansas City or can they be the kryptonite?

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Speaker 2: So it is lined up perfectly. And you know, as

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Speaker 2: someone that has money invested in the Chiefs, yes, it

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Speaker 2: would be very nice for me if Houston would win

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Speaker 2: this game because that would be an absolute lay up

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Speaker 2: for this Chiefs team. So yeah, it's it's lined up

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Speaker 2: for this Chargers team to make a run with Harball.

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Speaker 1: My takeaway from that Jaguars Chargers playoff game, Doug ep

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Speaker 1: can bring you back and we need some money because

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Speaker 1: we were on the Jags in that game. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you remember it. I remember that was a

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Speaker 1: stressful game right there.

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Speaker 2: I think you were in New York. We were watching

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Speaker 2: with everyone and I was like we were at a

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Speaker 2: party with all of our coworkers, and I was like,

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Speaker 2: I got to get out of here at halftime. I

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Speaker 2: just couldn't couldn't do it anymore. And yeah, that was

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Speaker 2: as a legendary comeback.

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Speaker 1: If you're interested in tailing my executive decision on the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: here's what you should do. Go to the app. Use

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Speaker 1: BET's bet three six five's quick slip link. You can

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Speaker 1: see it in this episode description. You're just going to

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Speaker 1: click on it. It's going to take you right to

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Speaker 1: the bet that you want. It's going to open up

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Speaker 1: a slip you can just put in how much you

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Speaker 1: want to bet you're on the Chargers. I used quick

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Speaker 1: slip this morning when I was baking a bet on

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Speaker 1: this next game. It is one click from your mobile device.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers bet slip will just pop up in your

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Speaker 1: bet three six y five app. You'll be ready to bet.

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Speaker 1: It is automagical Pittsburgh out Baltimore. It's the second game

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Speaker 1: on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is a ten point favorite. This one's going for

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Speaker 1: a ride. Brother. It'll at eight and a half on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night. It's only gone up it seems like the

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Speaker 1: ceiling is ten. When it hit ten, there was by back.

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Speaker 1: It came down to nine and a half, then it

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Speaker 1: went back back up to ten, and it's kind of

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Speaker 1: just been sitting there, which is a little surprising to me,

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Speaker 1: and that it hasn't come back down. I don't know

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Speaker 1: why this happened. Okay, I'm gonna tell you a story.

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Speaker 1: I woke up this morning at like four o'clock and

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Speaker 1: I had to pee. I tossed and turned for like

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Speaker 1: two hours trying to go back to bed, and I

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Speaker 1: couldn't This happens every single night, by the way, it's

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Speaker 1: freaking brutal. At around six fifteen, it's still pitch blackout

348
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Speaker 1: and this pops into my head. I don't know why.

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Speaker 1: Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are ten point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over,

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Speaker 1: opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by

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Speaker 1: the way, and I bet the Steelers a plus ten.

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Speaker 1: I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.

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Speaker 2: That's a bad moment right here for your youngsters. Let's live.

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Speaker 2: It's not the shocking though, because we basically broke it

356
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Speaker 2: down to the net. We knew this was gonna be

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Speaker 2: one of the heavier teased moneyline parlay teams, Like the

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Speaker 2: books basically are just protecting against that chat. That's what

359
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Speaker 2: to me the movement's based off, because I told you

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Speaker 2: they know they're gonna get Pittsburgh professional money, Like it's

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Speaker 2: just a fact that it's going to come in the

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Speaker 2: amount of money though from Joe public right now just

363
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Speaker 2: shows how heavy it is on the moneyline parlays and

364
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Speaker 2: everything like that with this Ravens team, which to me

365
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Speaker 2: makes sense. This is a Pittsburgh team that they're on

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Speaker 2: what a four game losing streak. I think Evan put

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Speaker 2: in his article they haven't scored more than seventeen points

368
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Speaker 2: in those games, Like Russ has just fallen off an

369
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Speaker 2: absolute cliff. To this point, me and you are simply

370
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Speaker 2: betting on this basically this matchup because we have historically

371
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Speaker 2: always just taken the dog and we've just been making

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Speaker 2: crazy money doing it, and the fact that these are

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Speaker 2: divisional rivals and that these games are always just weird. Now,

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Speaker 2: the first time they played, I believe was eighteen sixteen

375
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Speaker 2: win by this Pittsburgh team. Second time they played, I

376
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,360
Speaker 2: believe that I got blown out thirty four to seventeen

377
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Speaker 2: four seventeen, But when you go back and you look,

378
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Speaker 2: it's like there were basically in that game until Joey

379
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Speaker 2: Porter Junior went out. Once he went out, Lamar just

380
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Speaker 2: totally took advantage of that. Now his back, JJ Watt

381
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Speaker 2: put up a legit, I think his first his career

382
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Speaker 2: at last week.

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Speaker 1: TJ Watt, Yeah, JJ, every single same.

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Speaker 2: You know why, It's because I've been I've been watching

385
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Speaker 2: a lot of JJ Watt stuff because he owns my

386
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Speaker 2: soccer club, Burnley. So I've just been locked in on

387
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Speaker 2: JJ Watt. I know it's brutal, I keep doing it.

388
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Speaker 2: But TJ basically had his first, I feel like of

389
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Speaker 2: his career shutout last week against Cincinnati, Like literally didn't

390
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 2: have a tackle, didn't have a sack at zero pressures

391
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 2: was He even said it was one of the worst

392
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Speaker 2: games he's ever played. Okay, so we have Joey Porter

393
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Speaker 2: Junior back for this defense, we have an insanely motivated

394
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Speaker 2: TJ Watt defensively, and they might be without their number

395
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 2: one were and Zay Flowers, which to me, that's an underline,

396
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 2: like that's a very very something that's not being talked

397
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 2: about enough right now. That's a huge deal for this

398
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 2: team losing him coming in because he is the deep threat,

399
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 2: like he's the reason they have to keep a safety

400
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: back and that Derek Henrick can have these type of runs.

401
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 2: Same with Lamar. But now that he's out, why would

402
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 2: they not come down and stack the box. So yeah,

403
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 2: we like we didn't dive into the trends. I kind

404
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,959
Speaker 2: of want to save that for Evan Thursday, but I

405
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Speaker 2: love it like this. I can't help it. When it

406
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 2: went to ten, I remember thinking to myself, oh my god,

407
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 2: I am either just the sucker right now, just like

408
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 2: last week with that Chief's number, or this is like

409
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Speaker 2: you just said, this is an insane amount of disrespecting

410
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Speaker 2: movement against this Pittsburgh team and we are getting I mean,

411
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: what feels like two to three free points to work

412
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Speaker 2: with here, like something that's very unique to playoff football

413
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Speaker 2: where books have to protect against these big favorites. So

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Speaker 2: we know the data right ten point favorites, they're seventeen

415
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Speaker 2: and one straight up. That one loss was Lamar against

416
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 2: that Tennessee team twenty twenty, I believe. So there's just

417
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Speaker 2: there's a lot, like I know we we I get crown.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if Chad does is lamar hater. It's

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Speaker 2: just in the playoffs, Like, what do you guys want

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Speaker 2: me to do? We have the data, Like last year

421
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Speaker 2: we talked about that was the perfect team for him,

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Speaker 2: and he couldn't do anything against that Chiefs team. So

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Speaker 2: we've seen him struggle against good defenses in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I think this Pittsburgh team, I know they haven't shown

425
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Speaker 2: up late, but I still think they are an elite defense.

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Speaker 2: And this is a nice spot to back this Pittsburgh team.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus ten. Chad.

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Speaker 1: When Simon says do it, we do what Sence, I

429
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Speaker 1: bet it too. I put it in the app it

430
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Speaker 1: said plus ten. I couldn't decide when I was ultimately

431
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Speaker 1: betting it. Is this a high confidence bet that we're

432
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: making or is it a we're backing the trends and

433
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 1: we're backing the overreaction at the ten, I don't know

434
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: that we have a team that is in a winnable game.

435
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: I think we're just getting to your point, a team

436
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,959
Speaker 1: that has lost four games in a row. You mentioned

437
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: that the seventeen points. They haven't scored more than seventeen

438
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 1: points in a game since beating the Browns twenty seven

439
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: to fourteen on December eighth, right, you know, while the

440
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: Ravens they haven't scored fewer than thirty one points or

441
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 1: even lost since December first. So the reason this number

442
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: is so big right now, And I agree, let's save

443
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: some of the massive trends that back the Steelers for

444
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 1: Thursday show. But if you've listened to this show all

445
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 1: season long, you know that, like this matchup between Harbaugh

446
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 1: and Tomlin favors the underdogs, and Mike Tomlin specifically, he

447
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 1: has historically dominated as the underdog in this matchup. So

448
00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: like this is such a disparity in public perception more

449
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: than anything. That's why this number is so big. And

450
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 1: you're alluding to it with the sort of the teaser

451
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: protection and all that kind of stuff.

452
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 2: And I've been someone that has just faded Pittsburgh in

453
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: the playoffs these last couple of years just because it's

454
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: been like a Duck Hodges or Kenny Pickett. It's never

455
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 2: been a quarterback I can believe, and I'm not saying

456
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 2: I'm not saying I believe in Russell Wilson. He's the guy.

457
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 2: This is this is the type of moment, This is

458
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: the reason they brought him in. This is a veteran

459
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 2: quarterback in the playoffs who's had playoffs success. You expect

460
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 2: him to step up in this big moment. But to me,

461
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: you're you're saying, what's your confidence level? It's it's as

462
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 2: high as it could be on a team that's lost

463
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 2: four straight. It's it really is all about their matchup.

464
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 2: Like if they're playing a legit good team like say

465
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: the Bills, it'd be different. This isn't that would be

466
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 2: outside their division. This is just the two teams are

467
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 2: familiar with each other where like we said, it's it

468
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 2: always leans towards the dogs when these two teams play.

469
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: And then it gets magnified the fact that Lamar has

470
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: one team that he really struggles with in his career.

471
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,919
Speaker 2: It's Pittsburgh. Like that. We talk all the time about that.

472
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 2: It's a huge deal. So so there's your certain teams

473
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 2: that match up all against you, that have your number,

474
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: and I just believe in this Pittsburgh team. So yeah,

475
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 2: I'm obviously confident, and it's really all about the number.

476
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 2: Like this, this reaching plus ten. I mean again, like

477
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 2: I said, I just can't help myself. That's way too

478
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 2: many points and it just feels like it's an easy

479
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:17,479
Speaker 2: one that's going to come down to a field goal,

480
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: and we're getting a ton of value on this Pittsburgh team.

481
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: So in that game on the twenty first, there's a

482
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 1: couple games in the playoffs that are rematches from earlier

483
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: in the season, the vikings in the Rams as well,

484
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: and I think that bears looking at because in that

485
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: game on the twenty first, it was I think seventeen seventeen, right,

486
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: it was close through it was close through three quarters,

487
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 1: and then the Ravens went ahead in the last ninety

488
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: seconds of the third quarter. And that's around when Joey Porter,

489
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,199
Speaker 1: you know, he tried to play in the second half.

490
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: He couldn't, right, Russell Wilson threw a pick six. Would

491
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: have felt like after that this team needed to be

492
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: perfect and they couldn't. Yeah, And also George Pickens did

493
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: not play in that game. And I know, like he

494
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 1: was shitty last week against the Bengals. I don't expect

495
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: him to be shitty every week, and I that was

496
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 1: like his first game back after several weeks out. You

497
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: gotta expect him to have some kind of impact here too.

498
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, we get all the doubt on Pittsburgh. We

499
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: understand why money is coming in so heavy and Joe

500
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: Public is backing this Ravens team. It's just, you know,

501
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: this is the type of swat we played, Chad, and

502
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 2: you know, I always bet. I would say I bet

503
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: playoffs a little differently. If this was a regular season

504
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 2: obviously we would be on this Pittsburgh side. But no,

505
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: it's just I just love this number so much for

506
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team.

507
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 1: One other thing I'll add before we get on to

508
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: the next game is the Ravens are snake pick when

509
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 1: it comes to procedure penalties, holding penalties, pre snap penalties,

510
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: those things up when you're a ten point underdog. You know.

511
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: That's like we saw it over the weekend. Like the

512
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: Ravens weren't covered in that game until the very last

513
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: series when Derrick Henry you know, busted it open for

514
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: a long touchdown run. But they bite themselves in the

515
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: ass with really bad penalties that start them off behind

516
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: the chains or kill drives or bring back big plays.

517
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 1: So that could be something that comes into play if

518
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: you're interested in tailing this, Simon says, pick on the Steelers.

519
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: Check out the special bet three six ' five quick

520
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: slip link in this episode description. Just one click from

521
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: your mobile device and a Steelers bet slip pops up

522
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: and your bet three six y five app ready to bet.

523
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: Check it out. I love it. It's the best technology.

524
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,479
Speaker 1: Really is Denver at Buffalo Sunday game Bufflow is eight

525
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite.

526
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 3: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Van Miller and the road

527
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: to the super Bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York,

528
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 3: and it is the Bills looking to trade the on

529
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: the snow much through New York for a trip.

530
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: To the super Bowl. We discussed it eight and a half.

531
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 1: We discussed life liking Buffalo. Mostly it was just the

532
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: first instinct. Matt Mitchell came on and said he does

533
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: not worry about the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard. I

534
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: don't worry about it either. I've bet the Bills at

535
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 1: eight and.

536
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: A half, did you I've I'm on the other side.

537
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: I know I've come around to them.

538
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: I have.

539
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 2: And it's really it really is about Teum Payton facing

540
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: this defense of Buffalo. I just I can't get on

541
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 2: my head how many points this is, and that historically

542
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: he has done well, and it's like, maybe maybe I

543
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: am thinking too much, read too much into the trends

544
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: here with this one. But I'm just going through the

545
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: matchup and it's like Josh Allen's going to get his

546
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: He's gonna put up points, and it's like, Okay, now

547
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: I'm banking on bone Nicks to drive the field multiple times,

548
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: to get me multiple backdoor touchdowns or whatever it's going

549
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 2: to be, because we already know the dealer, right, this

550
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: is going to be a January game in Buffalo. It's

551
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: going to be freezing cold. It's this kid's first playoff start. Historically,

552
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: fade fade fade guys making their first starts, And I

553
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 2: did really want to be on Buffalo. This is a

554
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: team where you know, I will throw them in teasers.

555
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna avoid the spread if I need be,

556
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 2: because I'm just a little weary of this number being

557
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 2: so big. Smart guys I've talked to at this point

558
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 2: are just like, no, you have to take Denver, like

559
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 2: this is the exact spot, said Sean Payton, and Evan

560
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 2: wrote in his article it kind of backs it up right,

561
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 2: Sean Payton. He's on the press of Picton doing some

562
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: historical here. If he wins and covers this or if

563
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 2: he covers this game, I believe it. Evan, he'll be

564
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: five and oh is a road dog in the playoffs,

565
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: which is rare air. So you know, obviously the other

566
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: times he did that, it was with Drew Brees, a

567
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's still it was Drew

568
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 2: Brees as a dog in the playoffs, and Sean Payne

569
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: had him preparing up to that moment. I think the

570
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: same thing here where it's like, isn't this too many

571
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 2: points for a Bill's defense that we've seen since Week

572
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: nine have struggled like they're one of the bottom teams,

573
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 2: and they kind of got away with it at the

574
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: end there, right because they had a Patriot, then they

575
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: had the Jets, and then the Patriots again, Like not yeah,

576
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 2: they didn't play anyone in the final week, but it's

577
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: like there was a reason they had kind of struggled

578
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: this season against winning teams. And I can't get over

579
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 2: at bo Nicks, man, it was historical. I think he

580
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: was twelve and five against the spread this season, one

581
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: of the best rookie seasons, We've seen him, and I

582
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 2: believe Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight had the

583
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: second best or maybe the best rookie season against the spread.

584
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 2: So he plays up to the potential line sets by

585
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: the book makers. And in no world do I see

586
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 2: the Bills losing this. Like I said, happy to take

587
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: this down to two and a half, but covering this

588
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: number with that bad defense, I think it's going to

589
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: be a little more challenging than I perceived on Sunday night.

590
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: I make this number seven and a half. It's eight

591
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 2: and a half. I'll take the value on this Denver team,

592
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: but it's you can hear in my voice, not too

593
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: much confidence. Chet. I have heard so much about Buffalo.

594
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: I can hardly wait to get there.

595
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: I'm so surprised to hear this on Sunday night. We

596
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: felt so locked in on the Bills.

597
00:30:58,800 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: I bet him seven and a half.

598
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. And like then, Brandon Anderson in the podcast that

599
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: he does, the action podcast that he does on Sunday

600
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: Nights with Evan after the Sunday night football game, made

601
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: this his hot read. He made it their hot raed

602
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. So Brandon Anderson made.

603
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: I know he took Bills.

604
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: He took the Bills itself OA, which is a couple

605
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: couple interesting stats from the show Seven Seeds. There have

606
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: been eight seven seeds in the four years since the

607
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 1: NFL expanded the playoffs. Five of those eight lost their

608
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: opener by at least twelve points wild card hosts that

609
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: may that made last year's postseason playing a team that

610
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: didn't twenty two to ten to one, almost seventy percent

611
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: over the past two seasons. So history tells us Denver's

612
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: experience inexperience will play a factor.

613
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 2: At Bonnick's making his first start against a veteran like

614
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: Josh Allen Like, that's also a terrible trend. So I'm

615
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: with you. It's there's a lot to like about this

616
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 2: Bills team. That's why it's I'm not banging the table here.

617
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: It's just I'm just weary of the.

618
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: Number against teams with the winning records. This year. Bo

619
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: Nicks is one and seven with a minus thirty seven

620
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: point differential.

621
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: Not great, Jim, that was good.

622
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: That was really good. That was really good. Well, listen,

623
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: I'm boomed that we're not together on it.

624
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: I might come around on Thursday. I just yeah, yeah,

625
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: I got bullied a little bit about like, there's not

626
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 2: too many games I had people talking shit to me

627
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 2: about that I respect, and this was one. They're just

628
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: like you and Chatt had sound way too confident on

629
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: this Bills team. And it's what you just read there.

630
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: It's like, isn't this the game that Josh Allen just

631
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: fucking destroys this Broncos team that overachieved this year? But

632
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: no bone Knicks man covering machine.

633
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: So the wise guys talked about me again when they

634
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: called you, they included me in the in the conversation.

635
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 2: You didn't come up that I remember beyond.

636
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: Well no, no, but you just said you and Chad.

637
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, I'm saying they didn't. They didn't call

638
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: up saying Chad's way off this week.

639
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: No, no, no, that's okay. But the fact that they just

640
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: sort of include me. I like to be remembered, I

641
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: like to be acknowledged. The fact that they recognize me

642
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: as part of this is fantastic. That's really it. All right,

643
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: This game Green Bay at Philadelphia, as my buddy Keith

644
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: Jackson likes to say, is done.

645
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: No, we can finally play the game.

646
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: We love this game at three and a half on

647
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 1: Sunday night, and we assumed it would go up off

648
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: of either money or because Love news after we were

649
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: done with the show, it was pretty much it was

650
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: pretty clear Jordan Love was going to play. And this

651
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: line moved from three and a half to five and

652
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: a half between Sunday night and Monday morning. And I

653
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: can't think y're out why? Like that is the window

654
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: when it became clear Christian Watson was going to be

655
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: out and wasn't going to be playing this weekend, but

656
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: we knew Jordan Love was going to be playing. And

657
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: I don't know why it would get so high up

658
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,919
Speaker 1: to five and a half, got back down to four

659
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,320
Speaker 1: Monday afternoon, popped back to four and a half this morning.

660
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: What are you hearing? What are you seeing? What do

661
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 1: you know? It can't be, It can't be Jalen Hurts,

662
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: Like Schefter tweeted out yesterday that Jalen Hurts was still

663
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: in the protocol. But yeah, he's in the protocol because

664
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: he has to be in the protocol until he has

665
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: an opportunity to practice, and he hasn't had that opportunity yet,

666
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:37,760
Speaker 1: so we won't know his status until tomorrow. And or Thursday,

667
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 1: because that's when he has the first chance to check

668
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 1: off that last thing you need to check off to

669
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: get out of the protocol, which is being on the

670
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: field for a practice. So why why did he move

671
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: up so much?

672
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 2: You know, I'd just say from the top, like sources

673
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 2: I have in that building that I know for a

674
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,479
Speaker 2: fact they are just locked in. They're in the room

675
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: like they're everything they say it's ninety percent accurate. In

676
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: the other ten percent they're giving me is just to

677
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 2: throw me off the scent of some other bs. And

678
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: basically it's a given that Hurts is all good, he'll

679
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 2: be back. He could have played last week apparently, and

680
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: this is kind of Nixierranni playing mind games right now

681
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 2: with green Bay, and I guess books me too. I

682
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 2: honestly was a little scared because I did see that

683
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 2: Chefter tweet and then we just said just came back

684
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 2: and out of like, oh well, they're not even scheduled

685
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: to practice till Wednesday.

686
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, so he can't be a bit of a red

687
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: herring of a tweet like it was. It was ever

688
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 1: by Chefty to get some engagement and make a little noise,

689
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: but it doesn't really mean anything.

690
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 2: No, and like this is the time of year where

691
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: I have to have his you know, alerts turned on

692
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,959
Speaker 2: because it's such a small amount of games that any

693
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 2: little detail like that it's a huge deal. It swings

694
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: lines like you just said. One of the more respective

695
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: books all out on Vegas. They were one of the

696
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 2: first to go to five and a half, which means

697
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: they took legit smart professional money, heavy on the Eagles,

698
00:35:58,040 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 2: to go from four up to five and a half.

699
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 2: Books are gonna follow, Like right now, we talk all

700
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 2: the time books they can kind of do their own

701
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 2: thing in the regular season. In the playoffs, you basically

702
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 2: need to follow everyone else. Like you can maybe be

703
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 2: different by half a point, you can't be off by

704
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: the books by a full point. Like there is none

705
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 2: of that at this point. Like all the books are

706
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: gonna keep it really tight and a little bit of

707
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: follow the leader, right, A lot of these re public

708
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 2: books that don't take professional money, they're gonna follow the

709
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: books that do take the professional money. Those are the

710
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: people said in the line. So our initial reaction of

711
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: that three and a half terrible line, Like it's crazy

712
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 2: looking back on that. They opened at a three minus

713
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 2: three and a half. You know, as good as that

714
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 2: Green Bay team was heading into that playoff series last

715
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: year against that Dallas team, it feels like it's the

716
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: opposite this year. Like they just have so many injuries

717
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: to key guys. I mean even talking about Jordan Love,

718
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: like he's not fully healthy, he's banged up. Now he's

719
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: playing a team that you know, Eagles are in a

720
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: very unique situation here. They're one of the few teams

721
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: I believe they have all twenty two starters from Week

722
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 2: one still healthy, still playing in this matchup now, and

723
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 2: this this late of the season, coming off a rest week.

724
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts. He's rested someone who needed desperately. Apparently he

725
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 2: was really banged up lower body. He needed two to

726
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 2: three weeks off. Like that was kind of a gift

727
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: for them to be able to be in that position. So,

728
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 2: if you want to bet on a slow start, why

729
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: not take green Bay first quarter. Egos have struggled all

730
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 2: year in the first quarter. Green Bay has been pretty

731
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: decent coming out of the gates early on in game.

732
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 2: So if you're looking for an angle for some reason,

733
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 2: take green Bay. That to me is the angle, Like

734
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 2: take them first quarter, maybe first half. This Eagles team

735
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 2: all season, they are who they are. They've just been

736
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: absolute juggering on in the second half because of sae

737
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,919
Speaker 2: Quon Barkley, and we've seen it now. This Green Bay team,

738
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: they struggle against the run. They're just not good at

739
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: stopping the run. And now they're playing against one of

740
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: the best run running teams in all of football. So

741
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 2: to me, this number should probably GetUp to six. I

742
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 2: remember we talked something night. I was like, okay, if

743
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 2: this number is four, four and a half, that feels right.

744
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: I go back frum the numbers, It's like, okay, this

745
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: number should be six. So the books to me, initial

746
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 2: move to five and a half. That to me feels right,

747
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 2: that feels warranted. There is still a book out there

748
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 2: that you can get a four right now on this

749
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 2: Eagles team. If you want to go grab that, I would.

750
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 2: I would do it. If you want to back this

751
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: Eagle side, if you're someone like that just wants to

752
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 2: be patient and wait and take take Green Bay because historically,

753
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 2: I guess this is a pretty good spot at back

754
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 2: green Bay. Right this is gonna be a little bit

755
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 2: of an inflated number, you know. Lafleur As a dog,

756
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs, has been pretty profitable. Wait, just wait,

757
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 2: I believe this will not get below four. This will

758
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: keep going up. I think it could touch six by kickoff.

759
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I'm pretty dug dug in here on

760
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: this Eagles team, especially at this number. But you know,

761
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: if you come in here on Thursday Chat and this

762
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: is six and you're like, hey, I'm actually really fun

763
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 2: of love with this six, I could, I could, I

764
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 2: could be supportive of you take on the show, but

765
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 2: I think right now, the best value for your bang

766
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 2: for your buck right now is taking this Eagles team

767
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: either minus four minus four and a half while you

768
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 2: still can.

769
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually was this was gonna be my other

770
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: call for exac decision, And actually I actually thought you

771
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 1: were going to do it for Simon says and take

772
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 1: the Eagles.

773
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 2: Now, I gotta go the gross way. I gotta take

774
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 2: that dog.

775
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: But you mentioned I'm glad you talked about the Packers

776
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: rush defense, because we talked a lot on Sunday Night

777
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: about liking the Eagles. For as much as we like Saquon,

778
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 1: we talked about their defense like their defense is so

779
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 1: legit number one across the board in so many different categories,

780
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: but like top five in every single defensive category for

781
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: stopping the run. And we've seen how are the Packers

782
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: going to win games? They want to get the ball

783
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: to Josh Jacobs early. We see it in every single game.

784
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 1: The graphic you could if you could bet on the

785
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: graphic about Josh Jacobs running in twenty twenty four, when

786
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: it's going to appear over under two and a half

787
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 1: plays into the Packers first offensive series, like they they

788
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 1: want to run the ball, and then they get to

789
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 1: the second half and all of a sudden, like the

790
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: running game slows down and they stop scoring right, And

791
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: so the Eagles there their line, their defensive line is

792
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: so physical and they need so little help stopping the

793
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 1: run from linebackers. It's just it's it's phenomenal to watch,

794
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 1: and it's scary if you're an opponent. Meanwhile, their rush

795
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: offense is ridiculous, and the Packers rush defenses middle, middle

796
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: of the middle of the pack. So yeah, I'm surprised

797
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: to hear you say like at six, like now I

798
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: want to go rush and find that four and hit

799
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: it again, even though I already got it at three

800
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 1: and a half.

801
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: I have like when that when that news came out yesterday,

802
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: that Chefter a tweet, that's why Again I it's part

803
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: of the job, but I immediately was like calling runners,

804
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 2: get in my car driving to Philly again. Got got

805
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 2: more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus ten, got more Philly

806
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: down a minus four, and even a couple books where

807
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 2: like I'll give you minus one twenty if you want

808
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: the three and a half, and it's like, yeah, I'll

809
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: fucking take that, give it to me. So it's it's

810
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 2: an interesting spot where that I think even the books

811
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 2: were like reacting to Schefter's news of oh, Jaleen Hurts

812
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:14,919
Speaker 2: might be out and he might not play this game.

813
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 2: Now we've come in today and it's like every book

814
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: is basically back up to four and a half. I

815
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: think they realize that that was just bad information. That

816
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 2: he's clearly going to practice either Wednesday or Thursday and

817
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,240
Speaker 2: he'll be cleared from percussion protocols.

818
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: So now that information, it was completely accurate information, just

819
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: totally selective and without context.

820
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it just clicks like that's he got what he wanted.

821
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: Simon. One of the most important things in the NFL

822
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: playoffs is home field advantage. Because when we're home, we're

823
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 1: at our most comfortable, and we thrive when we're at

824
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,879
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825
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:58,520
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826
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,479
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827
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,359
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828
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829
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,920
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830
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831
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 1: women across the globe raving about Tommy John living their

832
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 1: best lives in a new year ahead. Simon, Simon, why

833
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: will you be wearing more Tommy John in five.

834
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 2: Pretty simple chat? Because comfort is king.

835
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,680
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836
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837
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838
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839
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:52,240
Speaker 1: As always wearing my tjs today put them on almost

840
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: like like I don't even think about it. If it's

841
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 1: a show day, they just automatically appear at the top

842
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 1: of the pile. It's like magic Washington at Tampa Bay.

843
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's three point favorite at home Your first instinct

844
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: was playing this. You said you saw a couple two

845
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 1: and a half's on Sunday night. It did get up

846
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: to three. You played the Bucks. I have no read

847
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: on this one. It seems like two teams that have

848
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: qbs who can make the heart attack plays converting the

849
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: clutch too, defenses that are not very good, especially against

850
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: the strength of their opponent's offense. Seems like it's numbered

851
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 1: exactly right. You know, if home Field is three points,

852
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: then basically they're getting the three points. I don't know

853
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 1: what to do with this one. In fact, if home

854
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: Field is worth less these days, then the Bucks might

855
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 1: be the Mugs. The Bucks might be overvalued.

856
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say if that, if you just going

857
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: lazy managers, go well, Homefield only two to two and

858
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: a half valuies on Commanders. I agree with that, but no,

859
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: it's to me this is just all about the Commanders

860
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 2: being overvalued. This line shoure probably be four four and

861
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 2: a half. The public just loves this Commander's team. They're

862
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 2: gonna bet it. I know some professionals who actually love

863
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 2: this Commanders team, and they're pointing to this the safety

864
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,879
Speaker 2: position of the Bucks. They're like, dude, they're banged up,

865
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 2: like they're gonna be able to push the ball downfield.

866
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 2: And I I mean it goes back to what we

867
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 2: talk about Nicks. It's like we have a rookie Mick

868
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 2: in their first starting the playoffs, playing a veteran quarterback

869
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 2: with a veteran run offense like this, this is such

870
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 2: an amazing bounce back spot for this Buccaneers team, Like

871
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 2: this is kind of the dreams Innario. They just had

872
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 2: their worst game they could possibly have against a divisional

873
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 2: foe in a game which you know, I'm not saying

874
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 2: they should have lost it, but the Saints are such

875
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 2: a bad team. They did give it away. I think

876
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: they were up sixteen to three at one point and

877
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 2: they lost that game. So you know, that Bucks team,

878
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: we've seen it when things are clicking, like they beat

879
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 2: the Eagles, they beat Detroit like they've beat I mean,

880
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 2: they dominated that Chargers team that we talked that we loved,

881
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 2: like they seem to step up on these big moments

882
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,439
Speaker 2: against good competition, and they played back competition. They played

883
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 2: down to the level and they struggle. It's it's been

884
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 2: a very up and down team, and we know the deal.

885
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 2: It's all about Baker. Chad. What what type of Baker

886
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 2: am I betting on here? And that's why, like I

887
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 2: looked at this to make Simon says, because I do

888
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 2: love this team. I love this number and I see

889
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 2: it going up. But it's the hesitation of Baker. It's like,

890
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy, but because he said such

891
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: a great year, but me and Chad to have experienced it,

892
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 2: Like we've seen games where yes, he'll throw for five touchdowns,

893
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 2: he might throw for three or four picks, and it's

894
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,760
Speaker 2: like he has to dig himselves out of these insane holes.

895
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 2: This ain't the team to do that against, like Jane Daniels.

896
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: You give him short fields, he's gonna kill you. Keep

897
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: giving them extra opportunities, he's gonna kill you. And the

898
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 2: biggest thing I'm betting on here is the trends in

899
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: the back in this veteran team. And you know the Bucks.

900
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: They're at home against a rookie making his first playoff

901
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: start on the road. We know the deal. It's just

902
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 2: teams are tighter. And if this was what that Bonnett

903
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: sign is, which is like above a seven yeah, no doubt.

904
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 2: I would like to play the Commanders like that would

905
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 2: be a nice back to option. It's not. It's sitting

906
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 2: on three right now and it's getting a ton of money,

907
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: a ton of bets this Commander's team. So this feels

908
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 2: like the nice spot. There's a couple of spots here

909
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 2: you can fade the public, like if you want to

910
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 2: back Green Bay, that's a nice spot to fade the

911
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: Eagles in the public. But this one really jumps out

912
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 2: to me of rookie QB making first start on the road,

913
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 2: rookie of the year, couldn't be any more hyped what

914
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 2: he is right now, and this Jade and Daniels kid

915
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 2: going against a Bucks team that after last week, it

916
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 2: feels like everyone's just off this team. Like again, I

917
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 2: was shocked to here professional as being the other side

918
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: where it just felt like such a layup bet to me.

919
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take the three and I pray, pray

920
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 2: that more money comes to the Commanders and I get

921
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 2: two and a half.

922
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: Look, you know what they say about Jaden Daniels, He

923
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: is the Bryce Young of the NFC East. The guy

924
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: can just flat out ball and he's not afraid. He's

925
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: not afraid to face down the rush.

926
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 2: Now. I already can't wait to bet him to win

927
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: the nfcast next year because we know that deal right,

928
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 2: It's whoever won this year is going through hell next year.

929
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 2: So Eagles being third in the division, lock it up.

930
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 2: Washington won the division next year doesn't get much easier.

931
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 2: But in this spot, n they're about to get humbled

932
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 2: this franchise.

933
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: You're all in. I feel like this will end up

934
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 1: being like a must play for us. I have not

935
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: bet this game yet. I just can't get it. But

936
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: the way you feel about it, I'm obviously going to

937
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 1: want to be all in with you on this game.

938
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:32,320
Speaker 1: Last game on the board, Minnesota at the LA Rams

939
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: the Perfect. The Rams are one and a half point underdogs.

940
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 1: This line has moved from two and a half down

941
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 1: to one and a half. Simon, can you name the

942
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 1: last team to beat the Vikings before they lost to

943
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: the Lions this past Sunday Night?

944
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 2: Was it that thirty twenty one Rams?

945
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: They lost on October twenty fourth, thirty to twenty. Then

946
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: they went on a nine game win streak.

947
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:09,479
Speaker 2: Vikings lost.

948
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 1: You mean the Vikings lost? Yeah, then they went on

949
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: a nine game win streak. The score was thirty to twenty.

950
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 1: You're correct. I saw this funny TikTok meme the other day.

951
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: It's like the Memory Championships or something, and it's a

952
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 1: dude who's married, and an off camera announcer says to him,

953
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 1: can you name the score of the nineteen eighty two

954
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 1: mid season game between the Bengals and the Browns? And

955
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 1: he can, like name the game. He can name the score,

956
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 1: he can name the leading rusher, he can name you know,

957
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: how many interceptions can you whatever? Right now, it's all

958
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: like a joke, right, It's like, can you name X,

959
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: Y and Z sports? Then it's like, okay, your wife

960
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 1: texted you this morning. She wants you at the grocery

961
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: store to pick up He cannot answer it. He's like,

962
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,399
Speaker 1: can you put it in a sentence? Can you give

963
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 1: me the context? He could not answer it. The fact

964
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 1: you can remember the score thirty to twenty from October

965
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: twenty fourth. So many things have happened those three months,

966
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: and yet you can remember that exact store. Here's the

967
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: real question. What can we learn from that game? Like,

968
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 1: other than the Bills game, it may have been the

969
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 1: Rams best performance of the season, right, Stafford went for

970
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: almost two eighty yards for a touchdown. They didn't give

971
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 1: it any sacks. Kyvin Williams ran for just under one

972
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: hundred yards. Vikings sacked three times, two for seven and

973
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 1: third down. Donald looked rattled, right, So is there like

974
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 1: a takeaway of that game? And on Sunday night against

975
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 1: the Lions, are we getting to Donald who winning a

976
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 1: nine game win streak but basically beat up on bad

977
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: teams and book ended it with losses to two playoff teams.

978
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 1: So what's your take here?

979
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely like we talked about the playoffs coming

980
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 2: down the quarterbacks, and this to me is another game

981
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: of that. It's I don't know what Stafford we're getting chat.

982
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 2: I mean Stafford's last three games he put up twelve points,

983
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: nineteen points, and thirteen points. That was against a forty

984
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 2: nine Ers team that basically quit on the season, a

985
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 2: Jets team that we know the deal, and then Arizona.

986
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 2: It's like, was he hurt? Did he need this bye?

987
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 2: Because Jimmy Jimmy g came in and lit up that

988
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 2: Seahawks defense. Like you know, McVeigh is putting him in

989
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 2: position to succeed. He's just not doing it like it's

990
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 2: It's been a lot of questions about Stafford down the stretcher.

991
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: Is he injured? Like are we not getting enough info?

992
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 2: And that's what I've been working here because automatically I

993
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 2: wanted to be on this Rams team, Like this is

994
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: a team that has playoffs, been in the playoffs in

995
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 2: these big moments with a veteran quarterback. And offensively, he

996
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 2: has all of his guys like he has Puka Cooper,

997
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 2: He's Williams in the backfield, like there's no excuse here.

998
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 2: And defensively, we know, we saw it the last time

999
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 2: they played. They kind of know how to attack, you

1000
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 2: know this this offense in the vikings. But you know

1001
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,959
Speaker 2: Sam Donald, not that he gave away that Lions game,

1002
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 2: but we all saw the stat they kept putting up. Right,

1003
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 2: this is a team that this season they scored touchdowns

1004
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 2: sixty percent of the times they went to the red zone.

1005
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 2: And that game against the Lions, they were zero for

1006
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 2: four at one point, and this is like, oh for four,

1007
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 2: Like they're letting Sam Donald throw it every time, so

1008
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 2: he might have been you know, one for I believe

1009
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 2: it was twelve in the red zone at one point,

1010
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 2: like completions, and the one completion was a little dump off,

1011
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: like you know justin Jefferson. Sure he had to drop

1012
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: in the back of the end zone, but we had

1013
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 2: guys online breaking down the film of all these easy

1014
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 2: plays that Kevin O'Connell basically drew up from where it's

1015
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: like pick play Oprah receiver coming down the middle. He

1016
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 2: wasn't seeing it. So are we are we going to

1017
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 2: react to Sam Donald because that was, you know, a

1018
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 2: playoff game. He knew the deal. That's the game where

1019
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 2: he wins. He gets that one seed, he's either getting

1020
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,479
Speaker 2: French by the Vikings or he's getting a fifty million

1021
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 2: dollar contract per year from somebody. Like that was the moment,

1022
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 2: and he didn't live up to it. I feel bad

1023
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: for him because you could see him wearing it in

1024
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: that game, like he knew he was going through it

1025
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: and still that line's game. It was ten to six,

1026
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 2: he got the ball start the second half, and he

1027
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 2: did nothing with it. So like that's the fear here

1028
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,240
Speaker 2: is Sam is kind of running to what his problem

1029
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 2: was all along his career. It's the mental demon. It's

1030
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 2: like he has their arms count.

1031
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:29,720
Speaker 1: He's seeing ghosts.

1032
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 2: Actually, I don't want to say it, but that's what

1033
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: it felt like.

1034
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 1: That's what it felt like on Sunday, honest to God,

1035
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 1: and that I'm rooting for the guy. I hope he

1036
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,759
Speaker 1: gets a big contract. I'm all for sort of those

1037
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: kinds of stories. But it felt like he was seeing ghosts.

1038
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: Right, And then you break down the numbers and what's

1039
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,720
Speaker 2: going into this one, and it's like, there's a reason

1040
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 2: this ramped him beat them the first time around. Like

1041
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 2: Stafford against the Blitz, He's pretty good against it. These

1042
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 2: type of unique cover schemes that Flores likes to run

1043
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 2: against a veteran quarterback like this doesn't usually work. It

1044
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 2: works on the young guys and inexperienced quarterbacks, but guys

1045
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 2: like Stafford who have seen at all, it doesn't work.

1046
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,400
Speaker 2: So you know, if this, if Stafford hadn't been playing

1047
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 2: so bad head into this, Chad, this would be another

1048
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: spot I'd be like hammering, like this is a great number.

1049
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 2: I've thrown it a bunch of teasers. Like getting them

1050
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 2: up to seven and a half right now against this

1051
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: Vikings team is such great value. And I get the

1052
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 2: public perception. I see why in the action app right now,

1053
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 2: all the money, all the bets are coming on this

1054
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 2: Vikings team because you know they they've dominated this outside

1055
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 2: their division this year, right, but we've seen the one

1056
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 2: kryptonite to this division has been this RAMS team. Like

1057
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 2: they took them down, they took down the lines like

1058
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 2: they do match up well against these teams. So yeah,

1059
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: interesting spot here for this, this this RAMS team. I

1060
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: really want us to be heavy on it, but I

1061
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: won more infos because long as I want to talk

1062
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 2: to more pro see what they're seeing. But yeah, you

1063
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:57,879
Speaker 2: can see I'm I'm really excited about this RAMS team.

1064
00:53:57,880 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 2: I think you're getting good value, especially at plus one

1065
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 2: and a half. This this should be either minus one

1066
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: RAMS or closer to a pick. You're still getting good

1067
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:06,760
Speaker 2: plus value on this number. So yeah, clearly the value

1068
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 2: is on this RAMS team.

1069
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 1: Well, look, you mentioned what a veteran quarterback who's seen

1070
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 1: it all can do against the Brian Flores blitz. Just

1071
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 1: look at what Jared Goff did every single time he blitzed.

1072
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 1: Jared Goff threw it to that exact open spot and

1073
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 1: he knew he was going to get tagged. He did it.

1074
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: He made an accurate throw if it was three, four

1075
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: or five yards and it just kept chunking up plays,

1076
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: kept chunking up yardage, and all of a sudden they're

1077
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 1: up thirty one at night, right, Like just a couple

1078
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 1: of those times it comes through and you get burned.

1079
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 1: And that was the difference in that game. By the way,

1080
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 1: teaser rams from one and a half to seven and

1081
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: a half, bills from bills eight and a half to

1082
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 1: two and a half.

1083
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's that one that jumps out to me.

1084
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 2: And again we obviously believe in the Steelers here. If

1085
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 2: you've already made ravens teasers got ahead of the number,

1086
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 2: that's that was a good bet whenever you made it.

1087
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 2: But at this point, you know, are you really going

1088
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 2: to do a seven point teaser? Get them down to

1089
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 2: three and you're gonna lose when the land's on three.

1090
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 2: So that to me, like mean, that's why we're not

1091
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,319
Speaker 2: even bring up the Ravens here for our teasers. To

1092
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 2: me the bills rams here. That that's the value jumping

1093
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 2: out to me on the board.

1094
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 1: All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

1095
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five must be

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1104
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I We'll return with our next

1108
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page

1109
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:08,800
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our NFL Wildcard Weekend

1110
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 1: best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you

1111
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 1: get your pods, Rate review, subscribe us five stars, say

1112
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is gift until next time.

1113
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 3: Love you.

1114
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:31,560
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