WEBVTT - Daycare Closures Imperils US Workforce Gains

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Tim, one of the things the consequences of the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 2>that's maybe one of the more positive bits that's come

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<v Speaker 2>out of the past couple of years is that women

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<v Speaker 2>in the United States have made historic gains in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of labor force participation in recent months. The participant pation

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<v Speaker 2>rate for women aged twenty five to fifty four in particular,

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<v Speaker 2>hit seventy seven point eight percent in June. That is

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<v Speaker 2>an all time record since that data was started to

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<v Speaker 2>be collected back in the nineteen forties. But now all

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<v Speaker 2>of that might be at risk because twenty four billion

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<v Speaker 2>dollars in pandemic era government aid for takecare providers is

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<v Speaker 2>set to run out at the end of September.

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<v Speaker 3>That's bad news, really bad news.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's such an important part of keeping women

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<v Speaker 2>in the workforce, and so for that I want to

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<v Speaker 2>bring in Read Pickert. She wrote this great story we

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<v Speaker 2>have out on Bloomberg dot com in the Bloomberg terminal.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, she's the US Economy reporter and she joins

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<v Speaker 2>us from our Washington DC bureau. Read first, tell me

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<v Speaker 2>why are daycares so on the edge and so dependent

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<v Speaker 2>on this twenty four billion dollars worth of funding that's

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<v Speaker 2>set to run out at the end of September.

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<v Speaker 4>So if first of all, thank you for having me on.

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<v Speaker 4>But if we rewind the clocks back to the start

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<v Speaker 4>of the pandemic, So when we saw daycares clothes, schools clothes,

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<v Speaker 4>and suddenly parents, both mothers and fathers were scrambling to

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<v Speaker 4>try to figure out what to do with their kids.

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<v Speaker 4>We saw this huge decline in workforce participation among women

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<v Speaker 4>ages twenty five to fifty four. And what you saw

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<v Speaker 4>as we moved on into twenty twenty one, we saw

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<v Speaker 4>the American Rescue Plan really step in with this billion,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, twenty four billion dollar set of you know

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<v Speaker 4>money for these childcare providers to help them keep their

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<v Speaker 4>doors open. And childcare providers could use this money in

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of different ways. So some of the main

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<v Speaker 4>things that you saw, for instance, were you know, keeping

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<v Speaker 4>up with the rising costs as inflation, you know, pushed

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<v Speaker 4>up the cost of a variety of different bills that

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<v Speaker 4>these providers had. You saw, in the case of paying

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<v Speaker 4>their workers more or hiring more workers to open up

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<v Speaker 4>more spots, just because you know, a lot of lower

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<v Speaker 4>paid sectors started seeing some pretty significant wage increases in

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<v Speaker 4>the tight labor markets. So childcare providers had a really

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<v Speaker 4>hard time hiring and retaining their workforce. And so that's

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<v Speaker 4>kind of the ways that these these providers have used

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<v Speaker 4>that money. And so fast forward to now, the Century

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<v Speaker 4>Foundation estimates that you know, more than seventy thousand providers

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<v Speaker 4>could be forced to close. But you know, I think

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<v Speaker 4>even putting that number even more in perspective, closing is like,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the worst case scenarios. So in ordered before

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<v Speaker 4>a childcare provider clothses, they're going to try all different

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<v Speaker 4>types of things to plug that hole. Whether that's raising

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<v Speaker 4>tuition for parents that are already struggling to pay it,

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<v Speaker 4>whether it's reducing hours, which you know is something that

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<v Speaker 4>has already limited a lot of parents' ability to you know,

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<v Speaker 4>really participate in their jobs in the workforce, and where

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<v Speaker 4>flexible working has really stepped in, or have to have

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<v Speaker 4>less staff, which means way less childcare spots available for

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<v Speaker 4>children across the United States.

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<v Speaker 5>Read.

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<v Speaker 3>One thing that was so surprising to me, as somebody

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<v Speaker 3>who pays so much money every month in childcare costs,

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<v Speaker 3>was how little childcare providers get paid. There's this value

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<v Speaker 3>chain that occurs when a parent pays a childcare provider,

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<v Speaker 3>and I don't know where that money is going because

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<v Speaker 3>the people who work there are not getting paid much.

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<v Speaker 3>What's happening here, So.

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<v Speaker 4>You're exactly right. Childcare is a profession that most people

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<v Speaker 4>are in it for the love of the job, not

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<v Speaker 4>for the pay. According to Bureau Labor Statistics data, the

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<v Speaker 4>average childcare worker made fourteen dollars and twenty two cents

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<v Speaker 4>an hour last year, which, for perspective, a lot of jobs,

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<v Speaker 4>for instance, somewhere working at Target, for instance, the starting

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<v Speaker 4>pay you know, may start at fifteen to twenty four

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<v Speaker 4>dollars an hour, and so you can really see how

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<v Speaker 4>these childcare providers it's difficult to you know, hire and

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<v Speaker 4>keep these folks. But a lot of this, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>goes into this idea of this broken system that we've

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<v Speaker 4>heard people across the aisle talk about, and it really,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, is this system where parents are paying really

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<v Speaker 4>can't paign anymore. The providers are trying their best to

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<v Speaker 4>pay their workers more. They want to pay their workers more,

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<v Speaker 4>but they're paying a lot in terms of insurance and

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<v Speaker 4>overhead and renting the space that they're in and then

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<v Speaker 4>at the end of the day, you end up in

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<v Speaker 4>this situation where kind of no one's quite happy. And

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<v Speaker 4>it's part of the reason that we've really seen more

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<v Speaker 4>band aid type efforts when it comes to the you know,

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<v Speaker 4>Congress's role in terms of providing funding, just because the

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<v Speaker 4>inherent system doesn't quite work economically well.

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<v Speaker 2>Tell me about the change from before these this money

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<v Speaker 2>was initially doled out. Was this supposed to just kind

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<v Speaker 2>of bring these childcare providers through this tough period or

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<v Speaker 2>was it, you know, was it to allow them to

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<v Speaker 2>get back on their feet, or was it did it

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<v Speaker 2>truly bring childcare to people who weren't able to afford

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<v Speaker 2>it for their families before and was that the intention?

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<v Speaker 4>So a mixture of all of these things. So I

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<v Speaker 4>think the importance of talking about childcare is the pandemic

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<v Speaker 4>shed a lot of light on how stressed this sector was.

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<v Speaker 4>But it's been a challenging spot well before the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think, you know, in the case of looking

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<v Speaker 4>at what this money in particular, did it really helped

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<v Speaker 4>address the immediate problems Econnie was facing. The economy saw

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<v Speaker 4>this soaring, soaring prices, and so from a childcare perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>that meant higher costs for rent, higher costs for utilities

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<v Speaker 4>and electricity and groceries that they're providing the children at

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<v Speaker 4>their daycare. It meant a tight labor market where it

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<v Speaker 4>was even harder to offer someone such a low wage

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<v Speaker 4>in comparison to all of these other sectors and expect

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<v Speaker 4>them to stay. And so, you know, this was a

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<v Speaker 4>measure that was meant to help in the short term.

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<v Speaker 4>But the reality that we're living in economically hasn't changed

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<v Speaker 4>a lot. Prices are still really high, the labor market

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<v Speaker 4>is still quite strong, and yet this money that helped

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<v Speaker 4>them get through there isn't there anymore.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sorry to interrupt there, read, but I mean, why

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<v Speaker 2>don't politicians just look at this and say, Wow, this

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<v Speaker 2>is something we didn't know how much this money was

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<v Speaker 2>going to do. Can't we, on a bipartisan basis, just

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<v Speaker 2>fulfill this twenty four billion dollar measure? Why are politicians

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<v Speaker 2>why is this, I guess even coming up, why are

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<v Speaker 2>we facing this childcare cliffs as it's been called.

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<v Speaker 4>So, like a lot of things in Washington, it's not

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<v Speaker 4>so simple. This childcare is an issue that is a

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<v Speaker 4>bipartisan issue and one that's widely supported by Republicans and Democrats.

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<v Speaker 4>The way that folks feel that the sector should be

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<v Speaker 4>supported differs based on who you ask. You know, one

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<v Speaker 4>kind of promising thing that we've seen is we've seen

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<v Speaker 4>a bipartisan childcare Caucus start to form with Representatives Rocanna

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<v Speaker 4>and Nancy Mace bringing more awareness to this childcare cliff

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<v Speaker 4>and this affordability challenge. But you've also seen, in terms

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<v Speaker 4>of the appropriations bills that are now kind of getting

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<v Speaker 4>caught up in the broader government shutdown mess, there is

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<v Speaker 4>an increase in funding for what's known as the Childcare

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<v Speaker 4>and Development Block Grants, which is a program that's been

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<v Speaker 4>in place for a while. But the increase is, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>nowhere close to the twenty four billion dollars that we

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<v Speaker 4>saw on the American Rescue Plan, but certainly will help

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<v Speaker 4>to some extent, but is no way offsetting that.

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<v Speaker 3>So read just in the last minute that we have

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<v Speaker 3>with you based on your reporting. And I know it's

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<v Speaker 3>not your job to make predictions, but I'm a parent

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<v Speaker 3>who pays for childcare. Right now, give me a prediction

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<v Speaker 3>of what you think happens at the end of the month.

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<v Speaker 4>So at the end of the month, nothing's going to

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<v Speaker 4>immediately happen. This is a slow burning challenge that over

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<v Speaker 4>the next six twelve months is when we start to

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<v Speaker 4>see these centers start to close. But for parents it means,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, particularly mothers, it means things such as cunning hours,

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<v Speaker 4>switching to jobs that are less difficult, less productive, less

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<v Speaker 4>time consuming and therefore often pay less, or dropping out

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<v Speaker 4>of the workforce entirely, which would be really sad at

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<v Speaker 4>a moment where women have really been leading this recovery.

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<v Speaker 3>I encourage you everybody to check out this story thread

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<v Speaker 3>of seventy thousand daycare closures in perils US workforce gains

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<v Speaker 3>serious economic implications when we cannot take care of children

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<v Speaker 3>in this country. The story by Reid Pickart and Kelsey Butler.

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<v Speaker 3>Check it out on the Bloomberg Terminill, of course, also

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<v Speaker 3>at Bloomberg dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch

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<v Speaker 6>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>I've just recently returned from the Persian Golf where I

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<v Speaker 2>was correspondent there for about three and a half years.

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<v Speaker 2>And frankly, since the start of the pandemic, there is

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<v Speaker 2>no part of the world probably that's flexed its financial

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<v Speaker 2>muscle like the golf. You bankers have been chasing sovereign

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<v Speaker 2>wealf cash. In Dubai, you know, you have a wave

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<v Speaker 2>of Russians pouring in with their own assets hedge funds,

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<v Speaker 2>ccrypto firms.

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<v Speaker 7>But at the same time, you.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, you look farther out across the Middle East and

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<v Speaker 2>into Africa, and the pandemic and the war in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>created sort of these devastating sustainability challenges for much, frankly

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<v Speaker 2>larger populations. And that's why I'm so excited to have

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<v Speaker 2>Norse Suade with us. She's founder and managing partner at

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<v Speaker 2>Global Ventures, and she makes investments in the Middle East

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<v Speaker 2>and Africa. She's normally based in Jubai, but Nor's joining

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<v Speaker 2>us now from London, so Nor talk to me a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit about some of the top investment themes for

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<v Speaker 2>global ventures right now.

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<v Speaker 8>So, first of all, thank you so much for having

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<v Speaker 8>me and taking the time for us. As we see

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<v Speaker 8>our part of the world, we take a look as

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<v Speaker 8>you mentioned all of midlist in Africa, we are sector agnostics,

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<v Speaker 8>so we invest across all sectors. What's really exciting to

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<v Speaker 8>us right now are two key sectors at this point

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<v Speaker 8>in time. The first is anything related to supply chain

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<v Speaker 8>disruption and the second is anything that related to food

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<v Speaker 8>security or agritech. And our investment theses are always really

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<v Speaker 8>thinking through five years from now, which industries are massively

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<v Speaker 8>different to five years ago. So where are we at

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<v Speaker 8>inflection points? What's interesting? Where can cutting edge technology impact

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<v Speaker 8>one hundreds of millons of lives in a very meaningful

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<v Speaker 8>and financially awarding way as well. So when we think

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<v Speaker 8>about supply chain and what's happened over the last two years,

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<v Speaker 8>we think about it all the way from material science

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<v Speaker 8>manufacturing where we still important ninety percent of everything and

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<v Speaker 8>we want to start importing us through to logistics, so

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<v Speaker 8>drone logistics on a commercial level versus using old trucks

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<v Speaker 8>on rickety roads So when we think about the whole

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<v Speaker 8>value chain of supply chain, our reckoning is if we're

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<v Speaker 8>going to build manufacturing for this part of the world

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<v Speaker 8>right now, if we're going to really disrupt supply chains,

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<v Speaker 8>we're going to do them the way of twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 8>We're not going to do them the way of the nineties.

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<v Speaker 8>We're not going to build manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 7>Facility that they're old.

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<v Speaker 8>It's going to be three D printing at differ manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 8>That's really one of the key areas right now is

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<v Speaker 8>how do we come into our own when it comes

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<v Speaker 8>to manufacturing and supply chains.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so you talk management manufacturing and supply chains, but

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<v Speaker 3>you also said another area of interest for you is

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<v Speaker 3>anything that has to do with food accessibility, food security.

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<v Speaker 3>Talk to me about how you are able to or

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<v Speaker 3>working to grow food in the desert. I mean, I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>what are the companies that you're investing in that allow

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<v Speaker 3>for that.

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<v Speaker 8>So there's a few, and you know, one of them

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<v Speaker 8>is very exciting because it's really at that intersection of

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<v Speaker 8>food and energy. So one of the company's red Sea,

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<v Speaker 8>really has found a way to reduce energy consumption for

0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:24.120
<v Speaker 8>the purpose of virtical farming.

0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:27.080
<v Speaker 7>By ninety five percent by the way they desell a water.

0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.800
<v Speaker 8>And this is really at the crux of everything because

0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 8>where we are there isn't ourble.

0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.439
<v Speaker 7>Land, so you want to do vertical farming.

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.480
<v Speaker 8>Five years ago, vertical farming was something that was in

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:39.560
<v Speaker 8>proof of concept. We reckon five years from now, a

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 8>lot of the food that's you know, being served in

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 8>the region is going to be farmed in the region

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 8>in these new innovative ways. And yet one of the

0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.200
<v Speaker 8>biggest impediments to that was how much energy costs and

0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:51.600
<v Speaker 8>how much energy consumption.

0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:53.839
<v Speaker 3>Well to explain that, because I don't think everyone knows

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 3>what vertical farming is, it's the idea that you're you know,

0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 3>you're stacking these crops on one another rather than laying

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.440
<v Speaker 3>them out on the ground. And they're greenhouses oftentimes, and

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:05.080
<v Speaker 3>you know, you need the lights and water in order

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:06.920
<v Speaker 3>for them to grow, right, And that's what makes some energy.

0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:09.439
<v Speaker 7>And water is often the biggest energy consumer.

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.640
<v Speaker 8>So if you want to desalinate water, because a lot

0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 8>of these are hydroponics, so you need a lot of water,

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 8>and a lot of the water that gets desalinated uses

0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.320
<v Speaker 8>a lot of energy, and that's often.

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 7>The biggest cost factor.

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.880
<v Speaker 8>So as we move from a world where you know,

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.439
<v Speaker 8>vertical farms or indoor farming and the way you stack

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.720
<v Speaker 8>them in hydropronics is still improved a concept and commercially unviable,

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:29.839
<v Speaker 8>and you want to take that so that that's actually

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.559
<v Speaker 8>how you produce most of the food. You really need

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 8>to reduce energy consumption, and that's actually something that's across

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 8>the region. So when we think about energy consumption, you

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.800
<v Speaker 8>have seven hundred and sixteen million people in the world

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.720
<v Speaker 8>without power, of which seven hundred million are in Africa.

0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.800
<v Speaker 8>So when we think about how we consume energy and

0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.520
<v Speaker 8>how we go down, you know, building businesses that require

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 8>less energy, not because we you know, we care about

0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 8>the planet, which we obviously do, but because it's a

0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.440
<v Speaker 8>better business because you cannot scale if you're consuming his

0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.440
<v Speaker 8>huge amount of energy. And now that we've crack some

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 8>of these things, red Seat Farms is exporting their technology

0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:07.520
<v Speaker 8>and retrofitting farms in the US farms in Europe. Is

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 8>this simply better tech?

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:10.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, But I guess one of the challenges that you

0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 2>always face, especially for technology that would most benefit places

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 2>like Africa, places outside the Gulf in the Middle East,

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 2>is that this is the return is not necessarily there

0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 2>to put in a lot of R and D to

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 2>produce food, uh from places that don't have a lot

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 2>of water, or to electrify places in Africa that have,

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, very low standards of life. I mean, can

0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 2>you talk to me about some of the ways that

0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 2>you are getting past some of these challenges.

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:47.120
<v Speaker 7>So I think that's where the opportunity sit.

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 8>So for us, as we think about these technologies that

0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 8>are available globally, and there is R and D in

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 8>our part of the world a little bit, not as

0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:54.640
<v Speaker 8>much as we'd like, but a little.

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 7>Bit, there's that opportunity to leap frog.

0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 8>So when we think about vertical farming, if we had

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 8>wanted to do that the traditional way or the way

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 8>that it was done even just ten years ago in

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 8>North America or in Europe, that consumed a lot of energy,

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 8>a lot of water which wasn't available, so we had

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.120
<v Speaker 8>to leap frog and think how can we do this better?

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 8>And the irony is that these are two scientists, one

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 8>British and one American, that were sitting in Saudi Arabia

0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 8>in the desert and discovered that the way that the

0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 8>cactus plant Pisani's water is much more energy efficient and

0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:24.880
<v Speaker 8>emulated that. But the concept of leapfrogging is something that's

0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 8>really important. So we don't have incumbents in our industries

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 8>because industries are still nascent. When you think about something

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 8>like financial inclusion, just five years ago, eighty five percent

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 8>of the people in the region were not financially included.

0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 8>Now that's down to fifty five percent. And we didn't

0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.600
<v Speaker 8>get there by building banks. We got there with cutting

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.120
<v Speaker 8>edge fintech. When we think about healthcare, we have one

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 8>doctor of per thousand people and mean now compared to

0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 8>four per thousand in North America or Europe and zero

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:54.880
<v Speaker 8>point two per thousand and South So hoar in Africa,

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.200
<v Speaker 8>we're never going to have enough hospitals, We're never going

0:15:57.280 --> 0:15:59.800
<v Speaker 8>to have enough doctors. The question becomes how do you

0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.440
<v Speaker 8>use technology to give healthcare access? And therefore you have

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.440
<v Speaker 8>the adoption of tech in a much faster way, especially

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 8>given sixty percent of the population is under the age

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 8>of thirty, so your digital adoption is instant and media.

0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 8>There are no incumbents or lobbies from the healthcare industry

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.560
<v Speaker 8>of the finance trying to stop these tech companies and

0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.840
<v Speaker 8>their regulators actually want these solutions, right, so you end

0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 8>up on a world Sorry.

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 3>Go ahead, Well, nor we only have a couple minutes left,

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:29.320
<v Speaker 3>and I want to make sure we get to the

0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 3>fundraising aspect of this, because you know, we talk a

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 3>lot about venture capital funding drying up over the last

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.160
<v Speaker 3>couple of years, and I'm wondering, from your perspective, as

0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:42.680
<v Speaker 3>the founder and managing partner at Global Ventures, how much

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 3>of your time is spent fundraising and how hard has

0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 3>it been to raise money for funds.

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 8>So we are on our third fund now, which we've

0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 8>managed to successfully raise most of this year, so we're

0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.440
<v Speaker 8>very fortunate. I think our part of the world is

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.040
<v Speaker 8>still a great opportunity company is because of the lack

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.120
<v Speaker 8>of the quantum of capital. So last year was our

0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:05.440
<v Speaker 8>peak year in terms of venture funding at three billion

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 8>dollars for all of the Mena region, which is still

0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.760
<v Speaker 8>a drop in the bucket of global venture. So anything

0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:13.960
<v Speaker 8>about three billion dollars was all deals all year across

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 8>all the Mena countries.

0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 7>So it's an nazing ecosystem.

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 8>It's fast growing, it's a very young population, and it's

0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.479
<v Speaker 8>an emerging and growing economy. So most of our investors

0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:25.439
<v Speaker 8>are actually international investors in institutions in the US and

0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.400
<v Speaker 8>in Europe that want access to growth markets, and by

0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:30.560
<v Speaker 8>coming in and looking at a venture in the region,

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.359
<v Speaker 8>they find companies that are much more capital efficient because

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 8>of the lack of capital and the ecosystem.

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:36.639
<v Speaker 7>A court of our portfolio is.

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:39.879
<v Speaker 8>EBADA positive, which for a Series A investor is highly

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 8>unlikely in most other markets. And you're using technology to

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 8>solve real world problems. So yeah, really the commreation of

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 8>that has.

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.520
<v Speaker 7>Enabled growth rather than a shrinkage so far.

0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.640
<v Speaker 2>Look, I'm just quickly here because we only have about

0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.720
<v Speaker 2>a minute left. But I mean, look, there's so much

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:59.280
<v Speaker 2>money coming out of the Gulf right now, and you,

0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.439
<v Speaker 2>you know, being based and deb see that probably have

0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 2>access to that that others don't. I mean, what priorities

0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 2>do you have in funding projects or what part does

0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:13.240
<v Speaker 2>those investors have in funding projects that other investors you

0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:15.760
<v Speaker 2>know elsewhere sitting in the United States or elsewhere don't.

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 8>So you know, when we're funding projects, we're looking purely

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:24.000
<v Speaker 8>at the technology. Our investors, as I mentioned, are sixty

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:25.760
<v Speaker 8>percent of our capital does not come from the region.

0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 7>It comes from the US and Europe, and.

0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 8>People are really looking for where there are growth areas

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 8>in the world where we can use tech to impact

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.000
<v Speaker 8>hundreds of wons of lives to get the returns we're

0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 8>looking for. Our founders are globally competitive, and yet the

0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 8>market's so nascent and young and small that valuations make sense.

0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 8>So I think that that applies to regional investors to

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:46.280
<v Speaker 8>global investors. I think people are just looking for great

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 8>entrepreneurs building meaningful companies in growing markets.

0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:53.160
<v Speaker 3>Nor Suede is founder and managing partner at Global Ventures.

0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.240
<v Speaker 3>Joining us this afternoon from London, or I should say

0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:58.640
<v Speaker 3>this evening from London. Nor thanks so much for taking

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 3>the time. Really do appreciate.

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:09.840
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.320
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0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.520
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0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 3>Well, there's this great column from Bloomberg Opinion Today. It's

0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.479
<v Speaker 3>written by a professor at Fordham University's a theology professor,

0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:30.160
<v Speaker 3>Michael Pepper. It's all about jenerative AI in the classroom.

0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:32.320
<v Speaker 3>So when he first experimented with the Chat GPT, he

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 3>writes that he was not impressed, but that was before

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:39.000
<v Speaker 3>he played the GPT four, which was released back in March,

0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.480
<v Speaker 3>and he actually found the newest version of openii's multimodal

0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.760
<v Speaker 3>LM Large Language Model can now produce papers that are

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:50.160
<v Speaker 3>better than the average students. So that's just between different

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:52.680
<v Speaker 3>versions of Chat GPT. So it raises a lot of

0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:55.520
<v Speaker 3>questions about the role that jenerative AI should play in

0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:58.440
<v Speaker 3>the classroom. How should teachers use it, how should students

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.520
<v Speaker 3>use it? How worried should pair be that our kids

0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:03.679
<v Speaker 3>are not going to learn how to do anything because

0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 3>of chat GPT. Hopefully Chris Callison Birch has the answers.

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 3>He spent years studying generative AI. He's Associate Professor of

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:13.200
<v Speaker 3>Computer information Science at the University of Pennsylvania School of

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.919
<v Speaker 3>Engineering and Applied Science. He's a Sloan Research Fellow, and

0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:20.000
<v Speaker 3>he's gotten faculty research awards from companies we talk about

0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 3>every day at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Roadblocks and more,

0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 3>and gotten funding from DARPAY, the NSF and more as well.

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.680
<v Speaker 3>He joins us on Zoom from Philadelphia professor.

0:20:30.320 --> 0:20:33.960
<v Speaker 5>How are you great? Thanks for having me, well, thanks

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:34.439
<v Speaker 5>so much.

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:36.879
<v Speaker 3>For joining us. So a lot of parents are sending

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.040
<v Speaker 3>their kids back to school this week here in New

0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:41.840
<v Speaker 3>York and other areas of the country. School started already.

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:45.520
<v Speaker 3>I know that one thing they're thinking about is how

0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:48.239
<v Speaker 3>is my kid going to be using Chat GPT or

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:52.119
<v Speaker 3>Generative AI in the classroom versus how should he or

0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 3>she be using it?

0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 1>What are your thoughts?

0:20:55.840 --> 0:20:58.439
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely so, I was listening to a podcast this summer

0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:01.360
<v Speaker 5>that speculated that there were a downturn in the use

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:05.439
<v Speaker 5>of GPT as a result of its being summer break,

0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:08.800
<v Speaker 5>and the reason for that is basically, Chat GPT is

0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 5>a homework machine, so we should see a corresponding rise

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 5>again now that students are back in the classroom.

0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 3>Is that I think that's okay? Hold on, that's like

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:18.160
<v Speaker 3>Is that a concern though.

0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 5>For the for open AI or for US educators.

0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:26.200
<v Speaker 3>For educators not for open AI?

0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:32.320
<v Speaker 5>Certainly, certainly so. When Chat GPT was released last November,

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 5>it had this breakthrough moment where everyone suddenly became aware

0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 5>of it, and at PEN we had this giant meeting

0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 5>of all the faculty where it was on everyone's radar.

0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:45.119
<v Speaker 5>As a potential concern. And I think we're now just

0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:49.000
<v Speaker 5>beginning to navigate what are good uses of generative AI

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:52.400
<v Speaker 5>versus not good uses of generative AI, and I think

0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.160
<v Speaker 5>that those are going to vary depending on what level

0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 5>of education you're at, whether it's high school or below

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:02.359
<v Speaker 5>versus college use, and also sort of what level of

0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:05.719
<v Speaker 5>mastery students have achieved already. I think there's like an

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:10.480
<v Speaker 5>interesting analogy with using calculators in the classroom, where you

0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 5>want students to build fundamental skills first before you give

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:17.440
<v Speaker 5>them a technology that allows them to replace those fundamental skills.

0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:20.720
<v Speaker 2>So are you going to allow your students to write

0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:22.200
<v Speaker 2>essays with chat GPT?

0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:27.199
<v Speaker 5>I am in a computer science department, so we have

0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:31.080
<v Speaker 5>fewer essays, but we anogous problem with writing code.

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 3>Can chat GPT write code?

0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 5>Chat GPT can write code? Over the summer, I was

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:41.119
<v Speaker 5>using it and basically pair programming with it, and it's magnificent. Like,

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:42.879
<v Speaker 5>I think this is going to be a tool that

0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:46.719
<v Speaker 5>enters into all sorts of disciplines and that becomes an

0:22:46.760 --> 0:22:50.639
<v Speaker 5>integral part of how everyone does their regular job. And

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 5>so I want my students to be able to use

0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 5>this technology. And I want them to be able to

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:58.680
<v Speaker 5>enhance their own skill set with it, but I want

0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 5>to make sure that I'm navigating it correctly. So in

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.960
<v Speaker 5>my mind, there's like a there's an easy distinction to make.

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:09.160
<v Speaker 5>So what we want to avoid is unthinking use use

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 5>of this technology. So if you simply ask GPT to

0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:17.400
<v Speaker 5>write your high school essay or to complete my programming assignment,

0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:19.879
<v Speaker 5>and you do it in an unthinking manner, meaning you

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:23.280
<v Speaker 5>just submit it's output, that's clearly a harmful use of

0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.920
<v Speaker 5>this technology where the student doesn't learn anything, we're not

0:23:27.000 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 5>furthering their educational goals, and the output is crucially likely

0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 5>to be wrong in many interesting ways. These models are

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:37.639
<v Speaker 5>not perfect. They often hallucinate. So if you're a student

0:23:37.680 --> 0:23:40.680
<v Speaker 5>listening to Boomberg Radio, you're probably clever enough to make

0:23:40.680 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 5>sure that you fact check everything that it generates.

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 2>So what do you want to see your students produce?

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:48.399
<v Speaker 2>And forgive my ignorance of code here, what do you

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:51.359
<v Speaker 2>want to see them produce using JGBT.

0:23:53.600 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 5>So I think that the analogy that I draw is

0:23:56.840 --> 0:24:00.159
<v Speaker 5>essentially like what kind of collaboration would I allow a

0:24:00.200 --> 0:24:03.119
<v Speaker 5>pair of students to do? And so that kind of

0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 5>collaboration should be allowable between a student and the generative

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:10.680
<v Speaker 5>AI system. I wouldn't allow a student to copy directly

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 5>the code from their friends without understanding it and without

0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.400
<v Speaker 5>like thinking through and learning anything about how to do it.

0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:21.960
<v Speaker 5>I allow students to discuss the problems and gain a

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:25.280
<v Speaker 5>better understanding, but not to directly copy anything. And I

0:24:25.280 --> 0:24:28.280
<v Speaker 5>think the same could hold for a generative AI. So

0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:34.560
<v Speaker 5>you should be allowed to understand a problem. And I

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:38.359
<v Speaker 5>think that generative AI is really magnificent as a personalized tutor,

0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:41.400
<v Speaker 5>So you could use it to explore a topic, provide

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 5>examples of something that you're learning in class, and maybe

0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:47.159
<v Speaker 5>you could use it. So you've already mastered.

0:24:47.200 --> 0:24:48.560
<v Speaker 3>So we only have a couple of minutes left, and

0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:51.359
<v Speaker 3>I'm concern I'm certainly a concerned parent. My kids aren't

0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:53.679
<v Speaker 3>old enough to be doing homework at this point. But

0:24:53.840 --> 0:24:56.520
<v Speaker 3>I know that if I were in school, you know,

0:24:56.560 --> 0:24:58.880
<v Speaker 3>this is something that we'd all be looking for help

0:24:58.920 --> 0:25:01.080
<v Speaker 3>with when it comes to homework. So to remove yourself

0:25:01.119 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 3>from the college professor and put yourself in the position of,

0:25:04.280 --> 0:25:07.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, an eighth grade teacher or something, how do

0:25:07.880 --> 0:25:12.480
<v Speaker 3>kids use this technology in a way that's actually productive

0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 3>and not just a crutch.

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:19.879
<v Speaker 5>Right, So students shouldn't use this to complete their homework

0:25:19.880 --> 0:25:23.520
<v Speaker 5>assignments for them. They shouldn't use it when it's expressly forbidden.

0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:25.440
<v Speaker 5>But if you're an educator, I think there's lots of

0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:28.639
<v Speaker 5>really amazing ways that you can integrate this into your classroom.

0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:33.879
<v Speaker 5>There's lots of really great uses of generative AI for creative, creative,

0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:37.480
<v Speaker 5>creative applications. You can use it to generate images, to

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:40.600
<v Speaker 5>help illustrate things and really empower students to realize their

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 5>creative visions in very exciting ways. My nine year old

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:49.080
<v Speaker 5>and I are designing a movie together, generating images using

0:25:49.119 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 5>mid journey, creating voices using eleven labs, and all sorts

0:25:53.440 --> 0:25:56.600
<v Speaker 5>of things where we have this really spectacular creative project together,

0:25:57.080 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 5>and I think that those could be transferred into the

0:25:58.840 --> 0:25:59.640
<v Speaker 5>classroom as well.

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:03.719
<v Speaker 3>Pretty cool talk. Explain just in thirty seconds what mid

0:26:03.800 --> 0:26:05.359
<v Speaker 3>journey is and how you do something like that. It's

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 3>like the chat GPT for images, right.

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:09.639
<v Speaker 5>That's right. So mid journey is a generative AI that

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 5>lets you input a prompt, so you could say, AH

0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:16.280
<v Speaker 5>would cut print of a playing a banjo, and it'll

0:26:16.280 --> 0:26:19.480
<v Speaker 5>render that for you. And it's really amazing, so I

0:26:19.600 --> 0:26:21.640
<v Speaker 5>totally recommend that parents try it out with their kids.

0:26:21.680 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 5>It's great for imagination games.

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:25.680
<v Speaker 3>Very cool stuff. Hey, Chris, thank you so much for

0:26:26.040 --> 0:26:28.440
<v Speaker 3>joining us. Really appreciate you taking the time this afternoon.

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:32.440
<v Speaker 3>Chris Callison Birch is an associate professor of computer information

0:26:32.520 --> 0:26:34.639
<v Speaker 3>and information Science, I should say, at the University of

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:38.600
<v Speaker 3>Pennsylvania's School of Engineering and Applied Science. He joins us

0:26:38.840 --> 0:26:41.080
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon on zoom You listen.

0:26:41.200 --> 0:26:43.919
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, here challenges so much as to make your challenges

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:45.159
<v Speaker 2>as a parent so much more different.

0:26:45.600 --> 0:26:48.080
<v Speaker 3>I know, M.

0:26:51.520 --> 0:26:52.160
<v Speaker 2>A journal.

0:26:53.160 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 4>Now about you?

0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:54.200
<v Speaker 5>Let me drive?

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Oh no, no, no, no, all right, please.

0:27:00.200 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Excuse I want to drive.

0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:04.840
<v Speaker 7>It's a good question.

0:27:08.680 --> 0:27:12.200
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes Tim thing well

0:27:12.240 --> 0:27:15.119
<v Speaker 1>by around on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:15.840 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 3>It's already that time of day. We're less than eighteen

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.679
<v Speaker 3>minutes away from the close of US equity trading here

0:27:20.720 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 3>at New York. The dow down. We just heard the

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:24.159
<v Speaker 3>numbers from Charlie half a percentage point, the S and

0:27:24.160 --> 0:27:26.800
<v Speaker 3>P down seven tenths of one percent at forty four

0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:30.040
<v Speaker 3>to sixty three in the NASDAC down one point two percent.

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 3>Let's drive to the close with Eric Friedman, a chief

0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:35.240
<v Speaker 3>investment officer at US Bank asset Man. I've been joining

0:27:35.280 --> 0:27:38.320
<v Speaker 3>us on zoom from Raleigh, North Carolina this afternoon. Eric,

0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:39.439
<v Speaker 3>Good to have you with us. How are you?

0:27:40.680 --> 0:27:42.320
<v Speaker 6>I'm doing great. Tim, How are you today?

0:27:42.480 --> 0:27:43.400
<v Speaker 3>We're doing pretty well.

0:27:43.560 --> 0:27:43.679
<v Speaker 6>Uh.

0:27:43.800 --> 0:27:48.199
<v Speaker 3>You know my coaker today. Simone raised a question earlier

0:27:48.240 --> 0:27:50.760
<v Speaker 3>with our own Molly Smith on the economics team, and

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:52.359
<v Speaker 3>she said, you know, you look at this what we

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:55.360
<v Speaker 3>get from the anecdotal Uh, I call it anec data

0:27:55.440 --> 0:27:57.800
<v Speaker 3>from the FED Beige Book, you know, the survey that

0:27:57.840 --> 0:28:01.199
<v Speaker 3>it does of local areas around the country and businesses,

0:28:01.320 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 3>and it seems like everything is great. What's not so great?

0:28:06.520 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think there's a couple of things that we

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:11.000
<v Speaker 6>have to think about. We've been using this analogy. Tim

0:28:11.000 --> 0:28:14.320
<v Speaker 6>and Simone of the Fed acting like that personal trainer

0:28:14.400 --> 0:28:18.359
<v Speaker 6>sitting next to your treadmill and really keeping that ramp elevated.

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 6>And so what I think you're seeing is that the

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:24.240
<v Speaker 6>runner is still doing well. It's still jogging and keep

0:28:24.280 --> 0:28:26.800
<v Speaker 6>being up a very strong pace. That the question is

0:28:26.840 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 6>how long can that pace continue? And we do think

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 6>there will be more of an incremental slowing as opposed

0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:36.240
<v Speaker 6>to a just a absolute stop by that proverbial runner.

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:38.880
<v Speaker 6>So we'd expect the data to still be positive for

0:28:38.880 --> 0:28:40.920
<v Speaker 6>the next couple of months. And there's lots of reasons

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:44.440
<v Speaker 6>for that. The labor markets in great shape, the overall

0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:49.360
<v Speaker 6>wage growth remains strong, and so that gives on top

0:28:49.400 --> 0:28:52.600
<v Speaker 6>of the still accumulating stimulus savings, that gives a lot

0:28:52.640 --> 0:28:54.280
<v Speaker 6>of fuel if you will stopping and how can you

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:56.720
<v Speaker 6>surely meaning already even saying it. But that's the sort

0:28:56.720 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 6>of thing that we think will start to slow down

0:28:58.840 --> 0:29:01.600
<v Speaker 6>as we get deeper into let's call it holiday season

0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:03.720
<v Speaker 6>and into the turn of twenty twenty four.

0:29:04.000 --> 0:29:06.480
<v Speaker 2>What about the holidays season or the changing of the

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:12.200
<v Speaker 2>calendar pushes puts this pressure on the consumer or the

0:29:12.320 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 2>overall economy.

0:29:14.360 --> 0:29:17.440
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you know, I think sill there's probably a level

0:29:17.600 --> 0:29:20.560
<v Speaker 6>of leno clog, canspeakabous consumption, the desire just to keep

0:29:20.600 --> 0:29:24.360
<v Speaker 6>accumulating stuff. I think there's there's still this desire to

0:29:24.480 --> 0:29:27.920
<v Speaker 6>go out and travel. There's still you know, there's more

0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:30.840
<v Speaker 6>talk about the replacement cycle. Of course, four years ago,

0:29:32.120 --> 0:29:34.960
<v Speaker 6>in a couple of months, that's when the COVID epidemic

0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:37.400
<v Speaker 6>really forced so many people to be at home and

0:29:37.440 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 6>so the replacement cycle on goods starts to kick in,

0:29:41.160 --> 0:29:43.400
<v Speaker 6>as well as just again making sure you're taking care

0:29:43.440 --> 0:29:45.800
<v Speaker 6>of your mother in law at holiday season. Those are

0:29:45.840 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 6>important things. So those are things that can drive spending.

0:29:49.840 --> 0:29:52.840
<v Speaker 6>And the question, I think for all of investors, including

0:29:52.840 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 6>ourselves as well, what's what's after that? Will there be

0:29:56.320 --> 0:29:59.760
<v Speaker 6>enough accumulated savings and will be the job market remain healthy?

0:30:00.520 --> 0:30:02.200
<v Speaker 6>We do think again we have more of a glass

0:30:02.240 --> 0:30:05.240
<v Speaker 6>half full forward perspective, but there are a couple of

0:30:05.280 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 6>speed bumps along the way again, back to school, return

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:12.280
<v Speaker 6>to holiday shopping season, as well as just that cumulative

0:30:12.320 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 6>impact of higher interest rates. Those should serve as that

0:30:15.160 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 6>again proverbial, let's call it personal trinder, keeping the button

0:30:20.400 --> 0:30:22.400
<v Speaker 6>up elevated for longer than anybody would like.

0:30:22.960 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 3>Now that you mentioned that, I think I am due

0:30:24.520 --> 0:30:27.400
<v Speaker 3>for any iPhone this year, it's been it's been a

0:30:27.440 --> 0:30:27.960
<v Speaker 3>few years.

0:30:29.400 --> 0:30:29.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't know.

0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:31.360
<v Speaker 3>I don't even know what I have at this point.

0:30:31.400 --> 0:30:33.560
<v Speaker 3>It still works pretty well, that's the thing. So maybe

0:30:33.600 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 3>I'll go three years before I do an upgrade. Okay,

0:30:37.160 --> 0:30:40.240
<v Speaker 3>so Eric, I know you can't talk specific equities, but

0:30:40.320 --> 0:30:43.120
<v Speaker 3>let's talk sectors here. What are you doing with capitol

0:30:43.200 --> 0:30:43.560
<v Speaker 3>right now.

0:30:44.800 --> 0:30:47.800
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, one is that we're trimming some gains in technology,

0:30:48.120 --> 0:30:51.480
<v Speaker 6>and that's not to say that we think technology is

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:54.560
<v Speaker 6>completely overboad. There's there's a lot of things that obviously

0:30:54.560 --> 0:30:57.560
<v Speaker 6>COMPRISEE technology. We think that things like cyber things like

0:30:57.640 --> 0:31:00.600
<v Speaker 6>AI will remain in vogue, and so we'd just be

0:31:01.240 --> 0:31:04.800
<v Speaker 6>again harvesting some gains there as opposed to just extending.

0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:07.760
<v Speaker 6>And again, our long term viewpoint is that you do

0:31:07.840 --> 0:31:12.000
<v Speaker 6>want to have an outsized allocation to technology and probably healthcare.

0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:14.760
<v Speaker 6>Those are the two sectors that we favor on more

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 6>of a enduring basis. I think the other thing that's

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 6>really picking up of interest, at least in our screens

0:31:20.160 --> 0:31:23.640
<v Speaker 6>is energy, and that's a space that does spit up

0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:27.080
<v Speaker 6>some cash flow. They've generally been very capital disciplined as

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:30.640
<v Speaker 6>a group. They've been forced to be capital disciplined. Shareholders

0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:32.520
<v Speaker 6>have said, look, you can't have this. Pavlova in a

0:31:32.640 --> 0:31:34.760
<v Speaker 6>response of just when oil prices go up, you go

0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:37.840
<v Speaker 6>out and try to find more that has really been

0:31:37.920 --> 0:31:41.160
<v Speaker 6>rained in. And so you're seeing global demands still hang

0:31:41.240 --> 0:31:45.400
<v Speaker 6>in there. You're seeing a more disciplined operating environment for

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 6>EMP companies as well as R and M folks, and

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:50.560
<v Speaker 6>so that's the space we'd pay attention to. The last

0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:53.200
<v Speaker 6>thing I'd say is Japan is looking more and more interesting.

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:56.200
<v Speaker 6>It obviously has had a good run already. There's all

0:31:56.240 --> 0:31:59.160
<v Speaker 6>sorts of things happening within that economy that we think

0:31:59.200 --> 0:32:00.960
<v Speaker 6>are attractives. Those would be a couple of areas that

0:32:01.000 --> 0:32:02.960
<v Speaker 6>we'd have on your radar screens if they're not already.

0:32:03.600 --> 0:32:05.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. On the energy front, I mean, we're looking at

0:32:05.360 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 2>WTI right now at eighty seven sixty five. That's some

0:32:10.200 --> 0:32:12.600
<v Speaker 2>of the highest we've been in a long time. I mean,

0:32:12.640 --> 0:32:14.640
<v Speaker 2>but a lot of that seems to be dependent on

0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:21.920
<v Speaker 2>the Saudi's, the Russians rather than necessarily the oil companies themselves,

0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:24.440
<v Speaker 2>at least the oil price. What do you look for

0:32:24.480 --> 0:32:27.040
<v Speaker 2>when you look through the sector, what kind of companies

0:32:27.080 --> 0:32:29.320
<v Speaker 2>stand out as winners versus losers.

0:32:30.320 --> 0:32:32.360
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, there's a couple of things that we pay attention to.

0:32:32.400 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 6>And you're rightfully you point out that the macro price

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:40.000
<v Speaker 6>of oil does not necessarily mean that the oil companies, again,

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:44.320
<v Speaker 6>whether it's the super majors or the exploration production or

0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 6>the refiners, are necessarily going to do well. So a

0:32:46.920 --> 0:32:49.760
<v Speaker 6>couple things We pay attention to number one, as I

0:32:49.800 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 6>mentioned a second ago, that capital discipline. Are we seeing

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:58.120
<v Speaker 6>return of capital to shareholders? Are we seeing just blatant

0:32:58.160 --> 0:33:01.360
<v Speaker 6>capex overruns? That has not the case. We're very encouraged

0:33:01.360 --> 0:33:04.240
<v Speaker 6>by that. Number two is it's a related point and

0:33:04.240 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 6>not to get too wonkish, but you know, return on

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:09.800
<v Speaker 6>invested capital. So once people are being more capital disciplined,

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:14.200
<v Speaker 6>are they finding ways to actually turn that capital discipline

0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 6>into higher airings per share? And that's something that we

0:33:17.160 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 6>actually have seen consistently, particularly across the supermajors, and that's

0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:23.000
<v Speaker 6>an area that again without the ability to talk about

0:33:23.040 --> 0:33:25.400
<v Speaker 6>specific companies, that's a space that we think has been

0:33:25.440 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 6>the most disciplined. These are the groups that will benefit

0:33:28.480 --> 0:33:31.600
<v Speaker 6>from Again, not that we want the challenges in Russia

0:33:32.400 --> 0:33:35.640
<v Speaker 6>or Ukraine to denistially be sources of profit, but one

0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 6>of the things we pay attention to is just what

0:33:37.400 --> 0:33:40.960
<v Speaker 6>is a global response. And again that response has been

0:33:41.040 --> 0:33:44.480
<v Speaker 6>still a lack of supply relative to demand, which we

0:33:44.480 --> 0:33:46.479
<v Speaker 6>think will carry on throughout the course of this year

0:33:46.520 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 6>and potentially early next year. So we look at the

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 6>super majors, that'd be a place we pay attention to. Also,

0:33:51.440 --> 0:33:54.720
<v Speaker 6>some of those more disciplined next equation and production managers.

0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.200
<v Speaker 6>Those are also spots to what to pay attention to

0:33:57.280 --> 0:33:57.600
<v Speaker 6>as well.

0:33:57.680 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 3>I want to ask my last question in a nod

0:34:00.600 --> 0:34:03.200
<v Speaker 3>to Carol, who's out on vacation and she can't get

0:34:03.200 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 3>angry with me for asking you about the FED, But

0:34:05.440 --> 0:34:07.360
<v Speaker 3>how close they are you watching what the FED does

0:34:07.440 --> 0:34:09.360
<v Speaker 3>in September and what do you think it's going to

0:34:09.400 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 3>do in November.

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:14.520
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think, tim, it's the it's the primary focus

0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:16.560
<v Speaker 6>point right now. You know, we are in that that

0:34:16.760 --> 0:34:19.759
<v Speaker 6>shoulder month period where we're pretty much done with earnings

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:24.040
<v Speaker 6>and September twenty first is looming fast upon us. And

0:34:24.080 --> 0:34:25.840
<v Speaker 6>as a great Rod Stewart said, you know, this is

0:34:25.880 --> 0:34:27.239
<v Speaker 6>the time and I should be back at school, and

0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:30.719
<v Speaker 6>again we're all being forced to pay attention to what's

0:34:30.760 --> 0:34:33.120
<v Speaker 6>happening with the FED. So we think the bias is

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:35.480
<v Speaker 6>going to be a pause for this meeting, but also

0:34:35.520 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 6>to keep optionality for the balance of the year. And

0:34:38.000 --> 0:34:41.040
<v Speaker 6>so we do think that not just what's happening within

0:34:41.160 --> 0:34:44.080
<v Speaker 6>core services, which remains sticky, I mean that that remains

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:47.160
<v Speaker 6>a sticky area, but also some of these non core things,

0:34:47.520 --> 0:34:51.279
<v Speaker 6>like you mentioned Stu sitting the oil price elevates, that's

0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 6>an issue that the FED member regular.

0:34:53.120 --> 0:34:55.320
<v Speaker 3>All Right, Eric Friedman, the chief investment officer in the

0:34:55.400 --> 0:34:58.239
<v Speaker 3>US Bank Asset Management, joining us this afternoon. I really

0:34:58.280 --> 0:35:00.800
<v Speaker 3>appreciate you taking the time. You're listening and watching a

0:35:00.840 --> 0:35:02.920
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