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Speaker 1: We're happy to say our next guest is shawna or

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Speaker 1: rather Shane's sistle, founder and president of Banryan Capital Management. So, Shana,

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Speaker 1: it's been a pretty tough time to forecast really over

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Speaker 1: the past year or so. I mean, it's never easy. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The mood is very bearish right now, but the actual

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Speaker 1: stock performance in the US is not actually all that bad.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't seem to quite match the bearish mood. However, the

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Speaker 1: stock market and the bond market both seem to be

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Speaker 1: predicting troubled times ahead. Will they be right? I think

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Speaker 1: they will, and I'll tell you why. The economic data

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Speaker 1: has been perfectly good, as a matter of fact, better

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Speaker 1: than good. Uh. Most recent August job report was excellent.

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Speaker 1: We've had good I S M manufacturing and service data.

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Speaker 1: Consumer sentiment isn't great, but spending has held strong. So

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic on the

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Speaker 1: strength of the economy. But I think what the market

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Speaker 1: is pricing in and what you're seeing in the way

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Speaker 1: investors are reacting to this information is that this emboldens

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve to continue to be aggressive in their

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Speaker 1: tightening and continue their hawkish stance, and federal Reserve Chairman

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Speaker 1: Powell just recently from Jackson Hole talked and his comments

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Speaker 1: he said he expects there to be pain through this process,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think we can overlook the fact that

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Speaker 1: he used the word pain and his comments as if

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Speaker 1: uh saying he expects the FED to act in a

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Speaker 1: way that will likely push us into an economic downturn um.

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Speaker 1: And he may be right, he might be wrong. If

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Speaker 1: we somehow do manage us off landing, it's probably more

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Speaker 1: luck than skill because a lot of what will drive

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Speaker 1: that is not what the FED is doing necessarily. I

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Speaker 1: do think the FED can be too aggressive, and I

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Speaker 1: think that they intend to be, but also some geopolitical

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Speaker 1: events and economic overseas. Yeah, before we go off into that,

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Speaker 1: the interesting thing is that the Fed's actions may get

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Speaker 1: at inflation um and it may you know, take the U.

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Speaker 1: S economy into recession, but it's also going to boost

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Speaker 1: the dollar, which will hurt as well. So it's almost like,

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Speaker 1: you know, there should be a little give and take

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Speaker 1: rather than just a complete you know, crushing of inflation

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Speaker 1: and accept all the costs. Well, I think that the

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Speaker 1: FED is just really focused on inflation. They really want

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Speaker 1: to see it come down. They have that number at

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Speaker 1: two percent, I think it's unrealistic. I'd i'd like them

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Speaker 1: to say something more in line of we'd like to

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Speaker 1: see it trend down to, say four percent, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll kind of ease off the gas pedal. I think

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Speaker 1: they're very fixated on that two percent number, and that

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Speaker 1: means they will continue to act this way. They've also reiterated,

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Speaker 1: not just uh Powell, but also several members of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve have continued to reiterate that they intend to

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Speaker 1: stay aggressive longer than I think the market had originally thought,

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Speaker 1: because they want to see inflation um be tamed but

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Speaker 1: also stabilized so they can avoid some of what we

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Speaker 1: saw in the seventies, where you'd see it come down

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Speaker 1: but then we'll go right back up. And there wasn't

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Speaker 1: a lot of price stability. And they're very focused on

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Speaker 1: price stability, and they feel like they can do this

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Speaker 1: because employment has been so strong. I think if we

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Speaker 1: start to see a massive change in that, that that

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Speaker 1: will be the thing that will make them pause. Now,

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Speaker 1: looking at what's been going on with the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 1: my question really here here is given the nature of

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Speaker 1: the inflation and how some indicators are suggesting moved to

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Speaker 1: the downside in price rises very quickly, and indeed heaven

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Speaker 1: full offend. But did j pal go Volka just at

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Speaker 1: the wrong time. Potentially, I think that the FED doesn't

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Speaker 1: have as much control over this. They can definitely bring

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Speaker 1: down the demand side, but a lot of the key

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Speaker 1: drivers of inflation are on the supply side and they're

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Speaker 1: outside of his control. So there's definitely reason for concern

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Speaker 1: to think he's making a policy mistake similar to what

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Speaker 1: Vulgar did in the late seventies and eighties. So it's

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Speaker 1: a difficult environment. People investors are being drawn to companies

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Speaker 1: that benefit from in elastic demand, companies that would be

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Speaker 1: less affected by a slowdown. So, I know healthcare is

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Speaker 1: mentioned a lot. Where are you finding that in your

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Speaker 1: own picks? So one of my favorite stocks right now

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Speaker 1: is a firm called light Os, and it's a US

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Speaker 1: government contractor, but not in the sense of it's not defense, cybersecurity,

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Speaker 1: military health solutions. Anybody who's been to an airport here

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Speaker 1: in the US, these Lightos all over the play because

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Speaker 1: they have the the contract for all the security um

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Speaker 1: technology there. Uh, it's a very interesting stock. It's relatively

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Speaker 1: recession proof given that the majority of its business does

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Speaker 1: come from government contracts. Has a very intriguing health solutions

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Speaker 1: division both civilian and military, trading at a very attractive

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Speaker 1: multiple about fourteen times with one and a half percent dividend,

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Speaker 1: generating a lot of cash. Um and has had strong

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Speaker 1: revenues drawing earnings the last few quarters. So this is

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Speaker 1: a name that I really like right now that I

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Speaker 1: don't think a lot of people are paying attention to. UH.

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Speaker 1: It's two other names I really like, UM what does

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Speaker 1: the reach and the other the semiconductor company tells, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: those are those are much more controversial. The reats Camden

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Speaker 1: Property Trust. This is kind of a play on the

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Speaker 1: fact that we have not seen the worst of rent

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Speaker 1: increases and rent inflation. UH. Home prices up eighteen percent

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Speaker 1: year every year, and rents tend to be about a

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Speaker 1: year behind, and lots of pricing power for landlords right now.

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Speaker 1: Camden's and prime geographies where we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: people moving to the Sun Belt Texas, the Carolinas and Florida.

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Speaker 1: UM and so it has very good lease renewal rates,

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Speaker 1: very good rent payment rates, prime properties. It is a

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Speaker 1: bit expensive, but it does have an almost three percent

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Speaker 1: dividend yield, So I think it's attractive here, uh in

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Speaker 1: a defensive play. I have a question for you, but

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Speaker 1: for disclosure purposes, Um, you're in all of these stocks

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Speaker 1: that you're talking about, right, so that the listeners know

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Speaker 1: I actually only own Lightos. I don't own the other two.

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Speaker 1: Interesting okay. Uh So among these areas you've you've talked

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Speaker 1: about reeds, Um, we've talked a little bit about, you know,

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Speaker 1: suppliers for for airports and maybe defense will generally also

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Speaker 1: look at staples and utilities. But are some of these

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Speaker 1: areas already getting a little expensive and that people are

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Speaker 1: already there? Well, Lightos is training at fourteen times so

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Speaker 1: forward earning, so I actually don't think it's expensive. A

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Speaker 1: lot of these names are overlooked, even a name like Marvel,

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Speaker 1: which I actually do really like, and while I haven't

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Speaker 1: bought it in my personal portfolio, it is in portfolios

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Speaker 1: that I UM advise. Uh So I do want to

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Speaker 1: just reiterate that I personally don't own it, but I

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Speaker 1: do advise on portfolios that do. Um. That's another one

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Speaker 1: that's trading below. It's Peers in the space. It's at

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Speaker 1: nineteen times forward earnings, so I don't actually think these

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Speaker 1: are particularly expensive. One of the things that stands out

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Speaker 1: about all three of these is none of these are

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Speaker 1: large cap names, and most of them are not, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Apples, the Amazons of the world, which is why

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Speaker 1: I think they're being overlooked. But yeah, some of the

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Speaker 1: bigger names I do think are expensive, which is why

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of looking at some of these, uh, more

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Speaker 1: overlooked names. Shane, thank you so much for joining the

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Speaker 1: Shanis Cecil, their founder and the president of Durbannary and

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Speaker 1: Capital Management, getting her market outlook, her take on the

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Speaker 1: federal reserves actions in their battle against inflation,